Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 3 3 NE 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 5 5 NE 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 7 7 N 6 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 9 9 N 6 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 14 14 N 6 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 20 21 N 6 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 25 27 N 7 11248 11500 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 29 31 N 7 11953 11500 0 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 31 33 N 7 14604 11797 297 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 30 31 N 8 11953 11500 0 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 26 26 NW 8 10975 11500 0 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 22 22 N 7 10120 11500 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 17 17 N 7 9689 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 13 13 N 7 7666 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 11 11 N 7 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 10 10 N 6 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 10 10 N 6 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 10 10 N 6 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 9 9 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 9 9 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 8 8 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 8 8 NE 3 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 8 8 NE 3 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 8 8 NE 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 9 9 NE 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 10 10 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 11 11 NE 3 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 14 14 NE 3 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 20 21 N 3 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 27 28 N 2 11520 11500 0 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 34 36 NW 2 14849 14589 3089 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 38 40 NW 2 15176 14915 3415 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 40 42 NW 2 15340 15078 3578 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 39 40 NW 3 15176 14915 3415 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 34 34 NW 5 14686 11940 440 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 28 28 N 6 11520 11500 0 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 23 23 N 6 10180 11500 0 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 19 19 N 6 9940 11500 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 16 16 N 5 9524 11500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 15 15 NE 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 15 15 NE 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 15 15 N 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 15 15 N 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 14 14 N 3 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 14 14 N 3 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 13 13 N 3 7666 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 12 12 N 3 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 11 11 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 10 10 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 10 10 N 5 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 11 11 N 3 7516 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 14 14 N 3 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 20 21 NW 3 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 28 29 NW 3 11665 11500 0 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 35 37 NW 5 14931 14670 3170 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 39 41 NW 6 15258 14996 3496 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 40 42 NW 7 15340 15078 3578 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 39 40 W 7 15176 14915 3415 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 36 36 NW 7 14849 14589 3089 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 31 31 NW 6 11953 11500 0 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 27 27 NW 5 11248 11500 0 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 23 23 NW 3 10180 11500 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 21 21 NW 3 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 19 19 NW 2 9940 11500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 19 19 NW 1 9940 11500 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 18 18 NW 1 9854 11500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 18 18 NW 1 9854 11500 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 17 17 NW 1 9689 11500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 15 15 NW 2 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 14 14 W 2 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 13 13 W 2 7666 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 14 14 W 3 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 NW 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 18 18 W 3 9854 11500 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 22 22 W 3 10120 11500 0 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 27 27 W 5 11248 11500 0 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 32 33 W 5 14604 11797 297 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 36 37 W 5 14931 14670 3170 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 38 40 W 5 15176 14915 3415 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 39 41 W 5 15258 14996 3496 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 38 40 W 6 15176 14915 3415 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 36 37 W 6 14931 14670 3170 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 34 34 W 7 14686 11940 440 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 31 31 W 7 11953 11500 0 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 29 29 W 6 11665 11500 0 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 26 26 W 6 10975 11500 0 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 25 25 W 6 10678 11500 0 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 23 23 W 6 10180 11500 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 22 22 W 6 10120 11500 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 21 21 W 6 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 20 20 W 2 10000 11500 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 18 18 W 2 9854 11500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 17 17 W 2 9689 11500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 16 16 W 2 9524 11500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 15 15 W 2 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 16 16 W 2 9524 11500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 17 17 W 2 9689 11500 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 20 20 W 2 10000 11500 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 23 23 W 2 10180 11500 0 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 27 27 W 2 11248 11500 0 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 30 30 W 2 11809 11500 0 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 34 35 W 2 14768 13038 1538 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 36 37 SW 5 14931 14670 3170 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 36 37 SW 5 14931 14670 3170 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 36 37 SW 5 14931 14670 3170 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 34 35 SW 5 14768 13038 1538 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 32 32 SW 5 13300 11653 153 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 30 30 SW 5 11809 11500 0 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 27 27 W 5 11248 11500 0 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 25 25 W 5 10678 11500 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 24 24 W 5 10368 11500 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 22 22 W 5 10120 11500 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 21 21 W 5 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 20 20 W 5 10000 11500 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 18 18 W 3 9854 11500 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 17 17 W 3 9689 11500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 16 16 W 3 9524 11500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 15 15 W 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 14 14 W 3 8464 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 15 15 W 3 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 16 16 W 5 9524 11500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 19 19 W 5 9940 11500 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 22 22 W 5 10120 11500 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 25 25 W 5 10678 11500 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 29 29 W 5 11665 11500 0 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 32 33 W 5 14604 11797 297 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 34 35 W 5 14768 13038 1538 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 34 35 W 5 14768 13038 1538 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 34 35 W 5 14768 13038 1538 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 33 34 W 5 14686 11940 440 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 32 32 W 5 13300 11653 153 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 30 30 W 5 11809 11500 0 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 28 28 W 5 11520 11500 0 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 26 26 W 5 10975 11500 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 25 25 W 5 10678 11500 0 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 24 24 W 5 10368 11500 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 22 22 W 5 10120 11500 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 21 21 W 5 10060 11500 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 19 19 N 2 9940 11500 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 18 18 N 2 9854 11500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 16 16 N 2 9524 11500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 15 15 N 2 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 15 N 2 9209 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 15 15 N 2 9209 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com