Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SE 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 46 SE 7 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 51 SE 8 11064 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 55 S 9 13535 12056 556 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 55 58 S 9 16242 13493 1993 White 7
12 Noon Tue 56 58 S 10 16242 13493 1993 White 7
1 PM Tue 57 59 S 12 16456 13967 2467 White 8
2 PM Tue 57 59 S 13 16456 13967 2467 White 8
3 PM Tue 56 56 S 13 14049 12725 1225 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 56 57 S 13 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 56 56 S 13 14049 12725 1225 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 54 54 S 12 13230 11500 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 51 51 S 9 11064 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 S 8 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 S 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 S 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 38 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 44 S 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 50 S 7 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 54 S 9 13230 11500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 53 57 S 12 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 54 57 SW 13 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 55 58 SW 13 16242 13493 1993 White 7
2 PM Wed 56 58 SW 12 16242 13493 1993 White 7
3 PM Wed 56 57 SW 10 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 56 57 SW 9 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 56 56 SW 9 14049 12725 1225 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 8 13535 12056 556 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 52 52 SW 7 12150 11500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 48 48 SW 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 SW 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 SW 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 41 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 48 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 56 SW 5 14049 12725 1225 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 54 60 SW 6 16670 14478 2978 White 9
11 AM Thu 56 63 SW 7 17309 17309 5809 White 12
12 Noon Thu 58 65 SW 8 17734 17734 6234 White 14
1 PM Thu 59 66 W 9 17949 17949 6449 White 15
2 PM Thu 60 65 W 9 17734 17734 6234 White 14
3 PM Thu 61 65 W 9 17734 17734 6234 White 14
4 PM Thu 62 64 W 9 17521 17521 6021 White 13
5 PM Thu 61 62 W 9 17097 17097 5597 White 11
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 16456 13967 2467 White 8
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 13535 12056 556 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 11064 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 40 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 45 S 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 51 S 5 11064 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 57 SW 5 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 56 63 SW 6 17309 17309 5809 White 12
12 Noon Fri 59 67 SW 6 18166 18166 6666 White 16
1 PM Fri 62 69 W 6 18599 18599 7099 White 18
2 PM Fri 63 69 W 7 18599 18599 7099 White 18
3 PM Fri 63 67 W 7 18166 18166 6666 White 16
4 PM Fri 63 65 W 7 17734 17734 6234 White 14
5 PM Fri 62 63 W 8 17309 17309 5809 White 12
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 16670 14478 2978 White 9
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 8 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 13535 12056 556 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 8 12150 11500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 SE 3 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 43 E 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 49 E 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 54 E 5 13230 11500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 55 61 E 5 16884 15210 3710 White 10
11 AM Sat 59 66 E 5 17949 17949 6449 White 15
12 Noon Sat 62 69 S 7 18599 18599 7099 White 18
1 PM Sat 64 71 S 7 19021 19021 7521 White 20
2 PM Sat 66 72 S 7 19223 19223 7723 White 21
3 PM Sat 66 70 S 7 18815 18815 7315 White 19
4 PM Sat 65 67 S 7 18166 18166 6666 White 16
5 PM Sat 64 65 S 7 17734 17734 6234 White 14
6 PM Sat 62 62 SW 10 17097 17097 5597 White 11
7 PM Sat 59 59 SW 10 16456 13967 2467 White 8
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 14573 13177 1677 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 54 54 SW 10 13230 11500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 51 51 SW 10 11064 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SW 10 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 SE 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 42 SE 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 47 SE 6 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 53 SE 6 12783 11500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 53 58 SE 6 16242 13493 1993 White 7
11 AM Sun 57 63 SE 6 17309 17309 5809 White 12
12 Noon Sun 60 67 S 9 18166 18166 6666 White 16
1 PM Sun 62 69 S 9 18599 18599 7099 White 18
2 PM Sun 63 68 S 9 18382 18382 6882 White 17
3 PM Sun 63 67 S 9 18166 18166 6666 White 16
4 PM Sun 62 64 S 9 17521 17521 6021 White 13
5 PM Sun 60 61 S 9 16884 15210 3710 White 10
6 PM Sun 58 58 SW 10 16242 13493 1993 White 7
7 PM Sun 56 56 SW 10 14049 12725 1225 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 53 53 SW 10 12783 11500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 50 50 SW 10 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 SW 10 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 SW 10 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 W 5 7644 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com