Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 45 45 SW 2 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 SW 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 52 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 56 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 62 SW 5 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 63 67 SW 8 16224 14424 2924 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 66 71 SW 12 17710 16729 5229 White 9
1 PM Tue 68 72 SW 13 17922 17922 6422 White 10
2 PM Tue 69 72 SW 13 17922 17922 6422 White 10
3 PM Tue 69 71 SW 13 17710 16729 5229 White 9
4 PM Tue 70 71 W 13 17710 16729 5229 White 9
5 PM Tue 69 69 W 12 17287 15379 3879 White 8
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 16224 14424 2924 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 6 14055 11500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 SW 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 2 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 2 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 59 S 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 62 SW 7 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 63 64 SW 10 14507 11500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 64 65 SW 12 14996 12851 1351 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 64 64 SW 12 14507 11500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 63 63 SW 10 14055 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 62 62 SW 9 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 S 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 S 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 44 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 48 W 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 53 W 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 58 W 6 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 62 W 7 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 60 64 W 8 14507 11500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 61 65 W 8 14996 12851 1351 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 62 65 W 8 14996 12851 1351 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 63 64 W 8 14507 11500 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 63 63 NW 8 14055 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 61 61 NW 8 9802 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 NW 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 NW 6 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NW 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 N 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 E 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 E 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 E 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 SE 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 E 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 E 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 E 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 44 SE 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 49 S 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 55 S 5 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 60 SW 5 8168 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 65 SW 5 14996 12851 1351 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 62 67 SW 5 16224 14424 2924 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 64 68 SW 6 16890 14907 3407 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 64 66 SW 6 15519 13987 2487 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 64 65 W 7 14996 12851 1351 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 7 9802 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 50 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 56 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 61 S 3 9802 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 64 W 6 14507 11500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 61 66 W 6 15519 13987 2487 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 62 66 W 6 15519 13987 2487 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 63 66 W 6 15519 13987 2487 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 62 63 W 6 14055 11500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 8168 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 7 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 47 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 52 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 58 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 62 S 3 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 60 65 SW 8 14996 12851 1351 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 62 66 SW 8 15519 13987 2487 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 63 67 SW 8 16224 14424 2924 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 64 66 SW 8 15519 13987 2487 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 63 64 SW 8 14507 11500 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 62 62 SW 8 13160 11500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 8 8168 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 W 8 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 8 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 W 8 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 8 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 8 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 S 3 6102 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com