Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 SE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 ESE 4 6 7781 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 SE 3 4 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 4 6 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 SE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 SE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 SE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SE 5 8 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SE 5 8 8812 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 SSE 5 9 9899 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 48 S 6 10 10651 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 51 51 S 6 10 12926 11500 0 White 4
1 PM Sun 50 50 SW 6 11 12188 11500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 51 51 W 8 10 12926 11500 0 White 4
3 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 9 12 12926 11500 0 White 4
4 PM Sun 51 51 SSW 8 10 12926 11500 0 White 4
5 PM Sun 49 49 SSW 6 10 11446 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 45 45 S 6 11 9149 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 10 8128 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 S 6 11 7781 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 SSE 5 8 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 SE 4 6 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 ESE 3 6 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 SE 3 4 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 SE 2 4 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 SE 3 4 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 SE 3 4 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 ESE 3 4 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 E 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 ESE 3 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 S 3 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 SSW 3 5 7781 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 5 9483 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 4 6 9899 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 51 W 5 9 12926 11500 0 White 4
12 Noon Mon 52 53 W 6 10 13363 12120 620 White 6
1 PM Mon 53 54 W 6 10 13581 13581 2081 White 7
2 PM Mon 53 54 W 8 12 13581 13581 2081 White 7
3 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 8 12 13145 11500 0 White 5
4 PM Mon 51 51 NW 6 10 12926 11500 0 White 4
5 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 10 11446 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 10 9483 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 5 9 8128 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 N 5 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 N 5 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 NNE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NNE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 NNE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 NNE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NNE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 NNE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 4 6 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 N 5 8 9149 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 NNW 5 9 12926 11500 0 White 4
11 AM Tue 52 53 NW 6 10 13363 12120 620 White 6
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NW 8 11 14016 14016 2516 White 9
1 PM Tue 55 56 NW 8 12 14016 14016 2516 White 9
2 PM Tue 55 56 NW 9 13 14016 14016 2516 White 9
3 PM Tue 54 55 NW 9 14 13799 13799 2299 White 8
4 PM Tue 53 53 NNW 9 14 13363 12120 620 White 6
5 PM Tue 51 51 NNW 9 14 12926 11500 0 White 4
6 PM Tue 47 47 NNW 8 13 9899 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 12 8128 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 N 6 10 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 NNE 5 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 ENE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 ENE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 ENE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 E 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 E 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 E 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 ENE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 ENE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 ENE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 ENE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 8 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 47 NNE 5 8 9899 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 53 NNW 5 9 13363 12120 620 White 6
11 AM Wed 53 56 NW 5 9 14016 14016 2516 White 9
12 Noon Wed 56 59 NW 6 10 14666 14666 3166 White 12
1 PM Wed 57 60 NW 6 10 14883 14883 3383 White 13
2 PM Wed 57 59 NW 8 11 14666 14666 3166 White 12
3 PM Wed 57 58 NW 9 12 14450 14450 2950 White 11
4 PM Wed 55 55 NW 9 13 13799 13799 2299 White 8
5 PM Wed 53 53 NW 9 13 13363 12120 620 White 6
6 PM Wed 48 48 NNW 9 12 10651 11500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 44 44 NNE 8 11 8812 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 NE 6 9 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 ENE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 E 5 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 E 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 E 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 ESE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 ESE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 ESE 4 5 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 E 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 E 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 ESE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 SE 5 8 8128 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 48 S 5 8 10651 11500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 51 54 WSW 6 9 13581 13581 2081 White 7
11 AM Thu 55 58 W 6 10 14450 14450 2950 White 11
12 Noon Thu 57 60 WNW 8 11 14883 14883 3383 White 13
1 PM Thu 58 61 WNW 9 13 15098 15098 3598 White 14
2 PM Thu 57 59 WNW 10 14 14666 14666 3166 White 12
3 PM Thu 57 58 WNW 10 14 14450 14450 2950 White 11
4 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 10 14 13799 13799 2299 White 8
5 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 9 13 13363 12120 620 White 6
6 PM Thu 49 49 NW 8 12 11446 11500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 6 11 8812 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 5 10 7781 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 NNE 5 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 E 5 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 ESE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 SE 5 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 SSE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 SSE 4 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 SE 5 6 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 S 5 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 SW 6 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 6 10 7781 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 W 8 11 9899 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 W 8 13 13145 11500 0 White 5
11 AM Fri 53 55 W 9 14 13799 13799 2299 White 8
12 Noon Fri 55 57 W 9 16 14233 14233 2733 White 10
1 PM Fri 56 58 WNW 10 17 14450 14450 2950 White 11
2 PM Fri 56 57 WNW 10 17 14233 14233 2733 White 10
3 PM Fri 55 56 WNW 10 17 14016 14016 2516 White 9
4 PM Fri 55 55 WNW 10 17 13799 13799 2299 White 8
5 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 10 16 13145 11500 0 White 5
6 PM Fri 48 48 NW 9 14 10651 11500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 44 44 NW 8 12 8812 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 NW 6 10 7431 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 NW 5 9 7152 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 NW 4 8 7152 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com