Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

11 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 51 52 SE 3 17928 15489 3989 White 15
8 AM Tue 58 60 SE 3 19586 19586 8086 White 23
9 AM Tue 64 68 SE 3 21191 21191 9691 White 31
10 AM Tue 68 74 S 5 22364 22364 10864 White 37
11 AM Tue 71 77 W 7 22944 22944 11444 White 40
12 Noon Tue 72 78 W 9 23136 23136 11636 White 41
1 PM Tue 73 78 W 10 23136 23136 11636 White 41
2 PM Tue 74 78 W 12 23136 23136 11636 White 41
3 PM Tue 75 78 SW 12 23136 23136 11636 White 41
4 PM Tue 75 77 SW 12 22944 22944 11444 White 40
5 PM Tue 75 76 SW 10 22750 22750 11250 White 39
6 PM Tue 74 74 SW 10 22364 22364 10864 White 37
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 10 21586 21586 10086 White 33
8 PM Tue 66 66 S 10 20796 20796 9296 White 29
9 PM Tue 61 61 S 9 19789 19789 8289 White 24
10 PM Tue 58 58 S 8 19180 19180 7680 White 21
11 PM Tue 55 55 SE 6 18561 18561 7061 White 18
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SE 5 18350 18350 6850 White 17
1 AM Wed 52 52 SE 5 17928 15489 3989 White 15
2 AM Wed 52 52 SE 5 17928 15489 3989 White 15
3 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 6 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 47 47 SW 7 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 50 51 SW 7 17716 15286 3786 White 14
8 AM Wed 56 58 W 7 19180 19180 7680 White 21
9 AM Wed 61 65 W 8 20594 20594 9094 White 28
10 AM Wed 65 71 W 10 21781 21781 10281 White 34
11 AM Wed 68 75 W 14 22557 22557 11057 White 38
12 Noon Wed 69 76 W 16 22750 22750 11250 White 39
1 PM Wed 70 77 W 17 22944 22944 11444 White 40
2 PM Wed 71 77 W 17 22944 22944 11444 White 40
3 PM Wed 72 77 W 17 22944 22944 11444 White 40
4 PM Wed 72 75 W 18 22557 22557 11057 White 38
5 PM Wed 72 73 W 18 22170 22170 10670 White 36
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 21586 21586 10086 White 33
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 20993 20993 9493 White 30
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 19991 19991 8491 White 25
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 19180 19180 7680 White 21
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 3 18561 18561 7061 White 18
11 PM Wed 53 53 SW 2 18139 15848 4348 White 16
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 2 17928 15489 3989 White 15
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 2 17716 15286 3786 White 14
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 2 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 48 48 SW 2 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 2 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 45 45 SW 2 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 46 46 SW 2 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 49 50 SW 2 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 55 57 SW 2 18976 18976 7476 White 20
9 AM Thu 60 64 SW 3 20395 20395 8895 White 27
10 AM Thu 64 69 SW 5 21389 21389 9889 White 32
11 AM Thu 67 73 W 6 22170 22170 10670 White 36
12 Noon Thu 69 76 W 7 22750 22750 11250 White 39
1 PM Thu 70 76 W 7 22750 22750 11250 White 39
2 PM Thu 72 77 W 7 22944 22944 11444 White 40
3 PM Thu 72 76 W 7 22750 22750 11250 White 39
4 PM Thu 73 75 W 7 22557 22557 11057 White 38
5 PM Thu 73 74 W 7 22364 22364 10864 White 37
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 5 21781 21781 10281 White 34
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 21191 21191 9691 White 31
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 20193 20193 8693 White 26
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 5 19382 19382 7882 White 22
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 5 18772 18772 7272 White 19
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 5 18139 15848 4348 White 16
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 2 17928 15489 3989 White 15
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 2 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 2 15567 14930 3430 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 2 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 46 46 W 2 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 2 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 46 46 SW 2 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 50 51 SW 2 17716 15286 3786 White 14
8 AM Fri 55 57 SW 2 18976 18976 7476 White 20
9 AM Fri 60 64 SW 2 20395 20395 8895 White 27
10 AM Fri 64 70 SW 2 21586 21586 10086 White 33
11 AM Fri 67 74 SW 2 22364 22364 10864 White 37
12 Noon Fri 69 75 W 5 22557 22557 11057 White 38
1 PM Fri 70 76 W 5 22750 22750 11250 White 39
2 PM Fri 71 76 W 5 22750 22750 11250 White 39
3 PM Fri 72 76 W 5 22750 22750 11250 White 39
4 PM Fri 72 74 W 5 22364 22364 10864 White 37
5 PM Fri 72 73 W 5 22170 22170 10670 White 36
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 5 21586 21586 10086 White 33
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 20993 20993 9493 White 30
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 5 20193 20193 8693 White 26
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 5 19180 19180 7680 White 21
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 5 18772 18772 7272 White 19
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 5 18350 18350 6850 White 17
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SW 1 17928 15489 3989 White 15
1 AM Sat 51 51 SW 1 17716 15286 3786 White 14
2 AM Sat 50 50 SW 1 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 49 49 SW 1 15567 14930 3430 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 47 47 SW 1 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 46 46 SW 1 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 47 47 SW 1 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 51 52 SW 1 17928 15489 3989 White 15
8 AM Sat 57 59 SW 1 19382 19382 7882 White 22
9 AM Sat 62 66 SW 1 20796 20796 9296 White 29
10 AM Sat 66 71 SW 1 21781 21781 10281 White 34
11 AM Sat 68 75 SW 1 22557 22557 11057 White 38
12 Noon Sat 70 75 W 5 22557 22557 11057 White 38
1 PM Sat 71 76 W 5 22750 22750 11250 White 39
2 PM Sat 72 76 W 5 22750 22750 11250 White 39
3 PM Sat 72 75 W 5 22557 22557 11057 White 38
4 PM Sat 72 74 W 5 22364 22364 10864 White 37
5 PM Sat 72 73 W 5 22170 22170 10670 White 36
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 5 21586 21586 10086 White 33
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 5 20993 20993 9493 White 30
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 5 19991 19991 8491 White 25
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 5 19180 19180 7680 White 21
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 5 18561 18561 7061 White 18
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 5 18350 18350 6850 White 17
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 E 2 17928 15489 3989 White 15
1 AM Sun 52 52 E 2 17928 15489 3989 White 15
2 AM Sun 51 51 E 2 17716 15286 3786 White 14
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 2 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 48 48 E 2 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 47 47 E 2 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
6 AM Sun 48 48 E 1 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 51 51 E 1 17716 15286 3786 White 14
8 AM Sun 57 58 E 1 19180 19180 7680 White 21
9 AM Sun 63 65 E 1 20594 20594 9094 White 28
10 AM Sun 68 72 E 1 21975 21975 10475 White 35
11 AM Sun 71 75 E 1 22557 22557 11057 White 38
12 Noon Sun 73 76 W 2 22750 22750 11250 White 39
1 PM Sun 74 77 W 2 22944 22944 11444 White 40
2 PM Sun 74 77 W 2 22944 22944 11444 White 40
3 PM Sun 74 76 W 2 22750 22750 11250 White 39
4 PM Sun 74 75 W 2 22557 22557 11057 White 38
5 PM Sun 73 73 W 2 22170 22170 10670 White 36
6 PM Sun 71 71 W 1 21781 21781 10281 White 34
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 1 20993 20993 9493 White 30
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 1 20193 20193 8693 White 26
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 1 19382 19382 7882 White 22
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 1 18772 18772 7272 White 19
11 PM Sun 54 54 W 1 18350 18350 6850 White 17
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 2 18139 15848 4348 White 16
1 AM Mon 52 52 E 2 17928 15489 3989 White 15
2 AM Mon 51 51 E 2 17716 15286 3786 White 14
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 2 15567 14930 3430 Blue 12
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com