Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 19 19 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 16 16 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 13 13 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 14 14 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 18 18 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 23 23 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 30 30 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 30 30 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 30 30 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 27 27 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 26 26 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 24 24 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 24 24 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 23 23 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 22 22 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 23 23 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 23 23 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 23 23 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 23 23 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 23 23 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 23 23 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 22 22 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 20 20 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 19 19 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 23 23 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 25 25 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 27 27 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 27 27 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 26 26 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 25 25 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 22 22 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 20 20 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 17 17 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 15 15 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 13 13 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 12 12 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 10 10 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 9 9 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 7 7 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 6 6 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 6 6 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 6 6 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 7 7 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 6 6 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 5 5 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 4 4 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 6 6 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 12 12 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 19 19 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 26 27 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 30 31 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 31 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 30 30 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 29 29 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 24 24 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 21 21 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 18 18 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 16 16 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 14 14 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 14 14 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 14 14 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 14 14 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 13 13 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 13 13 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 12 12 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 12 12 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 13 13 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 15 15 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 19 19 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 23 23 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 27 27 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 31 31 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 34 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 35 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 35 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 34 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 32 32 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 30 30 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 28 28 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 25 25 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 23 23 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 21 21 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 20 20 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 18 18 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 17 17 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 16 16 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 15 15 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 14 14 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 14 14 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 14 14 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 16 16 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 17 17 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 20 20 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 22 22 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 25 25 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 27 27 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 25 25 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 24 24 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 22 22 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 20 20 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 18 18 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 16 16 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 15 15 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 13 13 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 12 12 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 10 10 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 8 8 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 7 7 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 5 5 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 5 5 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 5 5 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 6 6 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 8 8 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 11 11 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 14 14 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 17 17 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 20 20 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 22 23 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 23 24 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 23 24 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 22 22 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 20 20 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 18 18 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 16 16 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 14 14 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 12 12 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 9 9 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 7 7 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 5 5 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 4 4 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 2 2 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 1 1 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 1 1 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 1 1 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 2 2 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com