Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 34 34 SW 8 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 SW 12 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 SW 14 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 W 17 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 W 17 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 35 W 17 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 35 SW 18 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 38 W 20 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 38 W 21 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 37 37 W 23 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 37 37 W 23 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 36 36 W 23 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 35 35 W 23 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 W 22 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 NW 22 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 NW 21 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 NW 20 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 23 23 NW 17 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 NW 16 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 18 18 NW 14 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 16 16 NW 13 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 14 14 NW 12 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 12 12 NW 10 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 10 10 N 10 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 8 8 N 9 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 8 8 N 8 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 9 9 N 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 12 12 N 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 16 16 N 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 21 22 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 25 27 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 28 30 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 32 NW 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 29 30 W 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 27 27 NW 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 23 23 N 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 20 20 N 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 17 17 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 14 14 N 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 13 13 N 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 12 12 N 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 12 12 NW 2 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 12 12 W 2 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 12 12 W 2 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 12 12 S 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 11 11 S 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 11 11 S 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 11 11 SW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 11 11 SW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 11 11 SW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 13 13 S 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 SE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 21 21 S 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 27 28 SW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 35 SW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 38 SW 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 37 39 W 8 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 36 37 W 8 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 33 33 W 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 30 30 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 26 26 W 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 23 23 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 20 20 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 19 19 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 18 18 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 17 17 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 16 16 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 16 16 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 16 16 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 16 16 W 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 19 19 W 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 24 24 W 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 29 29 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 34 35 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 36 37 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 38 39 W 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 37 37 W 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 35 35 W 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 32 32 W 7 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 29 29 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 26 26 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 25 25 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 24 24 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 24 24 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 24 24 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 23 23 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 22 22 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 22 22 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 W 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 35 36 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 37 38 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 39 40 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 39 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 36 36 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 NW 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 30 30 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 27 27 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 26 26 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 24 24 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 24 24 NE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 NE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 NE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 23 23 NE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 23 23 NE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 22 22 NE 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 22 22 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 26 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 30 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 35 36 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 39 40 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 43 W 6 12962 11500 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 43 44 W 6 13474 11500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 43 44 W 6 13474 11500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 41 41 W 6 10217 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 38 38 W 6 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 30 30 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 28 NW 5 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 NW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 NW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 NW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 NW 3 8816 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com