Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 18 18 S 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 20 20 SE 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 24 SE 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 28 SE 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 35 SE 5 12590 11500 0 White 2
11 AM Tue 36 41 SE 3 13905 13905 2405 White 8
12 Noon Tue 41 47 S 3 15192 15192 3692 White 14
1 PM Tue 44 49 S 5 15613 15613 4113 White 16
2 PM Tue 46 50 S 7 15823 15823 4323 White 17
3 PM Tue 47 49 SW 8 15613 15613 4113 White 16
4 PM Tue 47 48 SW 9 15402 15402 3902 White 15
5 PM Tue 46 46 SW 10 14980 14980 3480 White 13
6 PM Tue 43 43 SW 10 14337 14337 2837 White 10
7 PM Tue 38 38 SW 9 13250 12063 563 White 5
8 PM Tue 33 33 S 8 10302 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 S 7 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 S 7 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 SW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 SW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 SW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 34 S 3 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 36 38 S 3 13250 12063 563 White 5
10 AM Wed 40 43 SW 5 14337 14337 2837 White 10
11 AM Wed 44 48 W 7 15402 15402 3902 White 15
12 Noon Wed 48 52 W 8 16242 16242 4742 White 19
1 PM Wed 50 54 W 9 16661 16661 5161 White 21
2 PM Wed 52 55 W 10 16869 16869 5369 White 22
3 PM Wed 53 55 W 12 16869 16869 5369 White 22
4 PM Wed 53 54 W 13 16661 16661 5161 White 21
5 PM Wed 52 52 W 13 16242 16242 4742 White 19
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 15613 15613 4113 White 16
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 10 14337 14337 2837 White 10
8 PM Wed 37 37 SW 8 13030 11500 0 White 4
9 PM Wed 32 32 SW 6 8285 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 SW 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 34 SW 5 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 37 39 SW 6 13469 13469 1969 White 6
10 AM Thu 40 43 SW 7 14337 14337 2837 White 10
11 AM Thu 42 46 SW 9 14980 14980 3480 White 13
12 Noon Thu 44 48 SW 10 15402 15402 3902 White 15
1 PM Thu 46 50 SW 12 15823 15823 4323 White 17
2 PM Thu 46 49 W 12 15613 15613 4113 White 16
3 PM Thu 47 49 W 12 15613 15613 4113 White 16
4 PM Thu 47 48 W 12 15402 15402 3902 White 15
5 PM Thu 46 46 SW 12 14980 14980 3480 White 13
6 PM Thu 44 44 SW 12 14552 14552 3052 White 11
7 PM Thu 39 39 SW 10 13469 13469 1969 White 6
8 PM Thu 34 34 SW 8 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 30 30 SW 7 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 SW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 SW 7 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 SW 7 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 23 23 SW 7 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 22 22 W 8 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 22 22 W 8 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 22 22 W 8 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 W 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 W 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 27 W 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 29 30 W 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 31 32 W 9 8285 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 32 33 W 9 10302 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 33 34 W 10 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 33 33 W 10 10302 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 33 33 W 12 10302 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 32 NW 12 8285 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 31 NW 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 NW 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 NW 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 25 25 NW 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 22 22 NW 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 NW 9 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 17 17 NW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 15 15 NW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 14 14 NW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 13 13 NW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 12 12 NW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 13 13 NW 3 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 14 14 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 16 16 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 22 22 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 27 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 29 30 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 31 32 SW 5 8285 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 33 34 SW 5 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 34 35 SW 5 12590 11500 0 White 2
3 PM Sat 34 34 SW 5 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 33 33 SW 5 10302 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 32 32 SW 5 8285 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 31 31 W 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 29 W 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 W 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 24 24 W 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 W 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 19 19 W 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 17 17 S 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 15 15 S 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 13 13 S 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 12 12 S 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 12 12 S 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 12 12 S 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 14 14 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 17 17 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 25 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 27 29 E 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 31 34 E 6 10739 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 34 37 W 6 13030 11500 0 White 4
1 PM Sun 36 39 W 6 13469 13469 1969 White 6
2 PM Sun 36 38 W 6 13250 12063 563 White 5
3 PM Sun 36 37 W 6 13030 11500 0 White 4
4 PM Sun 36 37 W 6 13030 11500 0 White 4
5 PM Sun 35 35 W 6 12590 11500 0 White 2
6 PM Sun 33 33 NW 6 10302 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 NW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 NW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 NW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 21 21 NW 6 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 19 19 W 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 16 16 W 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 15 15 W 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 14 14 W 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 13 13 W 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 14 14 W 5 7959 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com