Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

11 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 32 32 SE 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 38 SE 7 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 42 45 SE 8 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 47 52 S 9 17928 15489 3989 White 15
10 AM Sun 52 58 S 12 19180 19180 7680 White 21
11 AM Sun 55 60 S 13 19586 19586 8086 White 23
12 Noon Sun 56 61 S 15 19789 19789 8289 White 24
1 PM Sun 57 61 S 16 19789 19789 8289 White 24
2 PM Sun 57 59 S 17 19382 19382 7882 White 22
3 PM Sun 55 56 S 17 18772 18772 7272 White 19
4 PM Sun 53 53 S 17 18139 15848 4348 White 16
5 PM Sun 50 50 S 16 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 46 46 S 14 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 42 42 S 10 14390 12359 859 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 38 38 S 7 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 34 34 S 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 S 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 26 26 S 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 S 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 37 S 6 10074 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 42 S 7 14390 12359 859 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 43 45 S 8 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 45 46 S 8 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 45 46 S 12 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 45 46 S 12 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 44 45 S 10 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 43 44 S 10 14653 14236 2736 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 42 42 S 10 14390 12359 859 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 41 41 S 10 14258 12138 638 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 39 39 SW 8 12382 11500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 36 36 SW 8 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 SW 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 SW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 SW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 SW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 W 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 25 25 W 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 W 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 W 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 34 W 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 36 36 W 8 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 38 38 W 8 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 38 38 W 8 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 38 38 W 8 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 38 38 W 8 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 38 38 W 8 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 38 38 W 7 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 37 37 W 7 10074 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 36 36 NW 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 NW 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 NW 6 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 NW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 N 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 25 25 N 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 N 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 23 23 N 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 N 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 N 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 29 30 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 34 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 39 NW 3 12382 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 41 43 W 3 14521 12600 1100 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 44 46 W 3 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 46 48 W 3 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 46 48 W 3 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 46 47 NW 3 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 46 47 NW 5 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 44 44 NW 5 14653 14236 2736 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 42 42 NW 5 14390 12359 859 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 40 40 NW 5 12631 11639 139 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 38 38 NW 5 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 36 36 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 NW 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 SE 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 SE 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 SE 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 SE 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 SE 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 SE 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 S 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 32 S 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 36 S 5 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 41 S 5 14258 12138 638 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 42 46 S 5 14965 14498 2998 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 45 50 S 5 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 48 51 W 6 17716 15286 3786 White 14
1 PM Thu 49 52 W 6 17928 15489 3989 White 15
2 PM Thu 50 52 W 6 17928 15489 3989 White 15
3 PM Thu 49 51 W 6 17716 15286 3786 White 14
4 PM Thu 48 49 W 6 15567 14930 3430 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 47 47 W 6 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 7 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 42 42 SW 7 14390 12359 859 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 40 40 SW 7 12631 11639 139 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 38 38 SW 7 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 36 36 SW 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 SW 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 38 SW 3 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 41 43 SW 3 14521 12600 1100 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 44 47 SW 3 15144 14629 3129 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 48 52 SW 3 17928 15489 3989 White 15
12 Noon Fri 50 53 W 7 18139 15848 4348 White 16
1 PM Fri 52 55 W 7 18561 18561 7061 White 18
2 PM Fri 52 55 W 7 18561 18561 7061 White 18
3 PM Fri 52 54 W 7 18350 18350 6850 White 17
4 PM Fri 51 52 W 7 17928 15489 3989 White 15
5 PM Fri 50 50 W 7 15930 15108 3608 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 48 48 W 7 15323 14760 3260 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 14786 14367 2867 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 43 43 W 7 14521 12600 1100 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 40 40 W 7 12631 11639 139 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 38 38 W 7 12159 11500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 35 35 W 7 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 29 29 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 8635 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com