Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 13 13 NE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 13 13 NE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 14 14 NE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 NE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 20 20 NE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 24 25 NE 5 8334 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 28 30 NE 5 11192 11500 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 30 32 NE 5 11398 11500 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 31 33 N 6 11470 11500 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 31 32 N 6 11398 11500 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 29 29 NE 6 11026 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 27 27 E 6 9500 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 24 24 SE 6 7716 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 21 21 SE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 18 18 SE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 16 16 SE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 15 15 SE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 14 14 SE 6 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 14 14 SE 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 13 13 SE 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 12 12 SE 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 12 12 SE 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 12 12 SE 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 11 11 SE 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 12 12 SE 7 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 12 12 SE 7 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 14 14 SE 7 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 16 16 SE 7 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 20 20 SE 7 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 24 25 SE 7 8334 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 27 28 W 8 10861 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 29 31 W 8 11326 11500 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 30 31 W 8 11326 11500 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 30 31 W 8 11326 11500 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 29 29 W 8 11026 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 26 26 W 8 8928 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 23 23 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 21 21 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 19 19 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 17 17 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 16 16 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 15 15 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 15 15 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 14 14 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 14 14 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 14 14 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 13 13 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 13 13 W 8 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 14 14 NW 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 14 14 NW 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 NW 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 16 16 NW 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 19 19 NW 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 22 22 NW 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 24 25 NW 13 8334 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 25 26 NW 13 8928 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 25 26 NW 13 8928 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 24 24 NW 13 7716 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 23 23 NW 13 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 22 22 NW 13 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 20 20 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 17 17 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 15 15 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 13 13 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 12 12 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 12 12 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 12 12 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 11 11 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 10 10 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 10 10 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 9 9 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 10 10 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 11 11 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 12 12 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 15 15 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 17 17 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 20 21 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 21 22 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 22 23 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 22 23 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 21 21 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 20 20 N 12 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 18 18 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 16 16 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 14 14 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 12 12 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 11 11 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 10 10 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 10 10 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 10 10 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 9 9 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 10 10 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 12 12 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 14 14 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 16 16 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 20 21 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 23 24 N 10 7716 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 25 27 N 10 9500 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 26 27 N 10 9500 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 26 27 N 10 9500 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 25 N 10 8334 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 23 23 N 10 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 21 21 N 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 0 0 N 9 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 0 1 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 0 2 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 0 2 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 0 2 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 0 1 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 7293 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com