Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 18 18 NW 8 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 18 18 NW 8 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 NW 8 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 22 22 NW 8 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 26 27 NW 8 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 30 31 NW 8 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 37 NW 8 9531 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 40 NW 9 10363 11500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 39 41 NW 9 10839 11500 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 39 40 NW 9 10363 11500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 38 39 NW 8 10021 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 35 35 NW 7 9151 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 33 NW 6 8772 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 30 30 W 6 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 25 25 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 24 24 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 22 22 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 21 21 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 21 21 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 20 20 W 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 20 20 NW 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 NW 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 18 18 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 18 N 6 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 20 20 N 6 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 22 22 NW 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 28 NW 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 33 W 3 8772 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 39 W 3 10021 11500 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 40 42 W 3 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 42 44 W 3 11863 11500 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 43 44 W 5 11863 11500 0 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 42 42 W 3 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 39 39 W 3 10021 11500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 36 36 W 2 9339 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 33 33 W 2 8772 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 27 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 S 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 S 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 S 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 23 23 S 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 S 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 S 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 S 1 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 S 1 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 31 S 1 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 SW 2 9776 11500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 42 43 SW 3 11700 11500 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 46 47 SW 5 12239 11849 349 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 47 48 W 6 12360 12010 510 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 46 46 W 6 12149 11687 187 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 12025 11500 0 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 42 42 W 3 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 39 39 W 2 10021 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 35 35 W 2 9151 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 28 28 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 26 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 24 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 24 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 26 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 37 W 5 9531 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 42 W 6 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 41 42 W 7 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 40 41 W 7 10839 11500 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 37 38 W 7 9776 11500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 35 35 W 7 9151 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 33 33 NW 7 8772 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 30 30 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 28 28 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 25 25 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 N 5 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 20 20 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 19 19 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 19 19 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 18 18 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 17 17 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 16 16 N 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 N 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 N 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 21 21 N 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 N 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 30 31 N 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 37 NW 6 9531 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 41 NW 6 10839 11500 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 41 43 NW 6 11700 11500 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 41 42 NW 6 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 39 39 NW 6 10021 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 36 36 NW 6 9339 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 32 32 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 24 24 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 W 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 22 22 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 22 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 21 21 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 21 21 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 20 20 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 20 20 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 21 21 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 N 3 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 35 N 3 9151 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 42 W 5 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 43 45 W 5 12025 11500 0 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 45 47 W 5 12239 11849 349 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 44 45 W 5 12025 11500 0 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 42 42 W 5 11409 11500 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 38 38 W 5 9776 11500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 34 34 W 2 8962 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 29 29 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 27 27 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 26 26 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 W 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 24 24 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 22 22 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 22 22 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 22 22 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 SW 2 8720 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com