Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 19 19 S 6 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 22 22 S 6 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 25 S 6 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 27 29 SW 5 13018 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 30 34 SW 5 16339 16339 4139 White 5
11 AM Mon 33 38 SW 6 17194 17194 4994 White 8
12 Noon Mon 36 41 W 8 17828 17828 5628 White 11
1 PM Mon 38 43 W 9 18247 18247 6047 White 13
2 PM Mon 40 44 W 9 18495 18495 6295 White 14
3 PM Mon 40 42 W 10 18038 18038 5838 White 12
4 PM Mon 40 41 W 10 17828 17828 5628 White 11
5 PM Mon 39 39 W 10 17406 17406 5206 White 9
6 PM Mon 37 37 W 10 16981 16981 4781 White 7
7 PM Mon 35 35 W 8 16554 16554 4354 White 6
8 PM Mon 32 32 W 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
9 PM Mon 30 30 SE 6 15470 12200 0 White 1
10 PM Mon 29 29 SE 7 13018 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 28 SE 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 SE 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 SE 7 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 SE 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 S 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 28 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 S 9 13018 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 S 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 31 S 7 15689 12200 0 White 2
9 AM Tue 33 35 S 7 16554 16554 4354 White 6
10 AM Tue 37 40 S 7 17618 17618 5418 White 10
11 AM Tue 40 43 S 8 18247 18247 6047 White 13
12 Noon Tue 43 46 S 9 18916 18916 6716 White 16
1 PM Tue 45 48 SW 9 19330 19330 7130 White 18
2 PM Tue 45 47 SW 9 19123 19123 6923 White 17
3 PM Tue 45 46 SW 9 18916 18916 6716 White 16
4 PM Tue 44 44 SW 8 18495 18495 6295 White 14
5 PM Tue 43 43 SW 8 18247 18247 6047 White 13
6 PM Tue 41 41 SW 7 17828 17828 5628 White 11
7 PM Tue 38 38 S 7 17194 17194 4994 White 8
8 PM Tue 36 36 SE 7 16769 16769 4569 White 6
9 PM Tue 33 33 SE 7 16124 15915 3715 White 4
10 PM Tue 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
11 PM Tue 31 31 SE 8 15689 12200 0 White 2
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 SE 9 15689 12200 0 White 2
1 AM Wed 32 32 SE 9 15907 12579 379 White 3
2 AM Wed 32 32 SE 9 15907 12579 379 White 3
3 AM Wed 32 32 SE 9 15907 12579 379 White 3
4 AM Wed 32 32 SE 9 15907 12579 379 White 3
5 AM Wed 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
6 AM Wed 31 31 SE 8 15689 12200 0 White 2
7 AM Wed 31 31 SE 7 15689 12200 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 32 32 SE 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
9 AM Wed 33 33 SE 6 16124 15915 3715 White 4
10 AM Wed 35 35 SE 6 16554 16554 4354 White 6
11 AM Wed 38 38 S 6 17194 17194 4994 White 8
12 Noon Wed 40 40 S 6 17618 17618 5418 White 10
1 PM Wed 42 42 SW 6 18038 18038 5838 White 12
2 PM Wed 42 42 NW 6 18038 18038 5838 White 12
3 PM Wed 41 41 N 6 17828 17828 5628 White 11
4 PM Wed 40 40 N 6 17618 17618 5418 White 10
5 PM Wed 38 38 NE 6 17194 17194 4994 White 8
6 PM Wed 36 36 E 6 16769 16769 4569 White 6
7 PM Wed 36 36 E 6 16769 16769 4569 White 6
8 PM Wed 35 35 E 7 16554 16554 4354 White 6
9 PM Wed 34 34 SE 7 16339 16339 4139 White 5
10 PM Wed 34 34 SE 7 16339 16339 4139 White 5
11 PM Wed 34 34 SE 7 16339 16339 4139 White 5
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 SE 7 16124 15915 3715 White 4
1 AM Thu 33 33 SE 7 16124 15915 3715 White 4
2 AM Thu 33 33 SE 8 16124 15915 3715 White 4
3 AM Thu 32 32 S 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
4 AM Thu 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
5 AM Thu 32 32 SE 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
6 AM Thu 32 32 SE 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
7 AM Thu 33 33 SE 7 16124 15915 3715 White 4
8 AM Thu 34 34 S 7 16339 16339 4139 White 5
9 AM Thu 36 36 S 7 16769 16769 4569 White 6
10 AM Thu 38 38 S 7 17194 17194 4994 White 8
11 AM Thu 40 40 S 7 17618 17618 5418 White 10
12 Noon Thu 42 42 S 7 18038 18038 5838 White 12
1 PM Thu 42 42 S 7 18038 18038 5838 White 12
2 PM Thu 42 42 S 6 18038 18038 5838 White 12
3 PM Thu 42 42 S 6 18038 18038 5838 White 12
4 PM Thu 41 41 S 6 17828 17828 5628 White 11
5 PM Thu 40 40 S 6 17618 17618 5418 White 10
6 PM Thu 39 39 S 6 17406 17406 5206 White 9
7 PM Thu 38 38 S 6 17194 17194 4994 White 8
8 PM Thu 36 36 S 6 16769 16769 4569 White 6
9 PM Thu 35 35 S 6 16554 16554 4354 White 6
10 PM Thu 34 34 S 6 16339 16339 4139 White 5
11 PM Thu 34 34 S 6 16339 16339 4139 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SE 8 16124 15915 3715 White 4
1 AM Fri 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
2 AM Fri 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
3 AM Fri 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
4 AM Fri 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
5 AM Fri 32 32 SE 8 15907 12579 379 White 3
6 AM Fri 33 33 S 8 16124 15915 3715 White 4
7 AM Fri 35 35 S 8 16554 16554 4354 White 6
8 AM Fri 37 37 S 8 16981 16981 4781 White 7
9 AM Fri 39 39 S 8 17406 17406 5206 White 9
10 AM Fri 41 42 S 8 18038 18038 5838 White 12
11 AM Fri 42 43 S 8 18247 18247 6047 White 13
12 Noon Fri 44 44 SW 8 18495 18495 6295 White 14
1 PM Fri 45 45 SW 8 18709 18709 6509 White 15
2 PM Fri 45 45 SW 8 18709 18709 6509 White 15
3 PM Fri 45 45 SW 8 18709 18709 6509 White 15
4 PM Fri 44 44 SW 8 18495 18495 6295 White 14
5 PM Fri 43 43 SW 8 18247 18247 6047 White 13
6 PM Fri 42 42 SW 8 18038 18038 5838 White 12
7 PM Fri 41 41 SW 8 17828 17828 5628 White 11
8 PM Fri 39 39 SW 8 17406 17406 5206 White 9
9 PM Fri 38 38 SW 8 17194 17194 4994 White 8
10 PM Fri 37 37 SW 8 16981 16981 4781 White 7
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 8 16769 16769 4569 White 6
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 S 8 16339 16339 4139 White 5
1 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 16339 16339 4139 White 5
2 AM Sat 33 33 S 8 16124 15915 3715 White 4
3 AM Sat 33 33 S 8 16124 15915 3715 White 4
4 AM Sat 33 33 S 8 16124 15915 3715 White 4
5 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 16339 16339 4139 White 5
6 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 16339 16339 4139 White 5
7 AM Sat 36 36 S 8 16769 16769 4569 White 6
8 AM Sat 38 38 S 8 17194 17194 4994 White 8
9 AM Sat 39 39 S 8 17406 17406 5206 White 9
10 AM Sat 41 42 S 8 18038 18038 5838 White 12
11 AM Sat 43 44 S 8 18495 18495 6295 White 14
12 Noon Sat 44 46 W 8 18916 18916 6716 White 16
1 PM Sat 46 48 W 8 19330 19330 7130 White 18
2 PM Sat 46 47 W 8 19123 19123 6923 White 17
3 PM Sat 46 47 W 8 19123 19123 6923 White 17
4 PM Sat 46 46 W 8 18916 18916 6716 White 16
5 PM Sat 46 46 W 8 18916 18916 6716 White 16
6 PM Sat 45 45 W 8 18709 18709 6509 White 15
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 8 18247 18247 6047 White 13
8 PM Sat 42 42 W 8 18038 18038 5838 White 12
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 8 17618 17618 5418 White 10
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 8 17194 17194 4994 White 8
11 PM Sat 36 36 W 8 16769 16769 4569 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 SE 7 16554 16554 4354 White 6
1 AM Sun 33 33 SE 7 16124 15915 3715 White 4
2 AM Sun 32 32 SE 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
3 AM Sun 32 32 SE 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
4 AM Sun 32 32 SE 7 15907 12579 379 White 3
5 AM Sun 33 33 SE 7 16124 15915 3715 White 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com