Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 17 17 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 17 17 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 16 16 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 17 17 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 19 19 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 21 21 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 22 22 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 22 22 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 22 22 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 21 21 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 20 20 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 20 20 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 20 20 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 21 21 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 21 21 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 22 22 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 22 22 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 22 22 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 22 22 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 22 22 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 22 22 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 22 22 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 21 21 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 19 19 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 18 18 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 17 17 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 15 15 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 15 15 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 11 11 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 9 9 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 8 8 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 7 7 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 7 7 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 7 7 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 7 7 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 7 7 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 6 6 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 6 6 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 6 6 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 6 6 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 6 6 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 6 6 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 6 6 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 6 6 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 6 6 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 6 6 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 6 6 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 7 7 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 7 7 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 8 8 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 9 9 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 10 10 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 14 14 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 17 18 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 20 21 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 22 24 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 22 23 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 22 23 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 22 22 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 21 21 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 20 20 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 19 19 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 17 17 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 16 16 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 15 15 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 15 15 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 16 16 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 16 16 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 17 17 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 18 18 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 18 18 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 18 18 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 18 18 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 19 19 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 21 21 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 23 23 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 24 24 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 26 27 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 27 28 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 28 29 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 28 29 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 28 29 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 27 27 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 26 26 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 25 25 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 24 24 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 24 24 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 23 23 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 22 22 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 22 22 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 21 21 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 20 20 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 17 17 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 17 17 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 14 14 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 12 12 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 11 11 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 9 9 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 8 8 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 8 8 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 7 7 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 6 6 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 6 6 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 6 6 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 5 5 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 5 5 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 5 5 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 5 5 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 4 4 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 4 4 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 4 4 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 3 3 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 3 3 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 3 3 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 3 3 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 4 4 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 5 5 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 6 6 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 8 8 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 9 9 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 11 12 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 11 12 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 12 13 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 12 13 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 11 11 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 10 10 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 10 10 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 8 8 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 7 7 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 6 6 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 5 5 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 5 5 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 4 4 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 4 4 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 4 4 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 4 4 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 4 4 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 5 5 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com