Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 46 46 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 55 S 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 60 SW 5 14007 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 64 SW 5 16727 15723 3523 White 4
11 AM Sat 61 66 W 6 17164 17164 4964 White 6
12 Noon Sat 61 65 W 7 16945 16428 4228 White 5
1 PM Sat 61 64 W 8 16727 15723 3523 White 4
2 PM Sat 61 63 W 8 16508 13668 1468 White 3
3 PM Sat 61 62 W 8 16287 12200 0 White 2
4 PM Sat 61 62 W 7 16287 12200 0 White 2
5 PM Sat 61 61 W 7 16066 12200 0 White 1
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 14007 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 SW 7 10736 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 SW 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 S 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 3 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 3 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 56 W 3 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 W 3 16066 12200 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 62 65 W 5 16945 16428 4228 White 5
11 AM Sun 64 66 W 7 17164 17164 4964 White 6
12 Noon Sun 64 66 W 8 17164 17164 4964 White 6
1 PM Sun 65 67 W 8 17382 17382 5182 White 7
2 PM Sun 65 67 W 8 17382 17382 5182 White 7
3 PM Sun 65 66 W 7 17164 17164 4964 White 6
4 PM Sun 64 65 W 7 16945 16428 4228 White 5
5 PM Sun 64 64 W 7 16727 15723 3523 White 4
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 7 16287 12200 0 White 2
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 6 14007 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 56 S 3 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 SW 3 14007 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 64 SW 3 16727 15723 3523 White 4
11 AM Mon 63 65 W 5 16945 16428 4228 White 5
12 Noon Mon 64 66 W 6 17164 17164 4964 White 6
1 PM Mon 64 65 W 6 16945 16428 4228 White 5
2 PM Mon 64 65 W 7 16945 16428 4228 White 5
3 PM Mon 64 64 W 7 16727 15723 3523 White 4
4 PM Mon 64 64 W 7 16727 15723 3523 White 4
5 PM Mon 63 63 W 7 16508 13668 1468 White 3
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 7 16287 12200 0 White 2
7 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 14007 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 N 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 NE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 E 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 S 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 SW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 W 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 59 W 6 10736 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 61 NW 6 16066 12200 0 White 1
1 PM Tue 62 64 NW 6 16727 15723 3523 White 4
2 PM Tue 62 64 NW 6 16727 15723 3523 White 4
3 PM Tue 62 63 NW 7 16508 13668 1468 White 3
4 PM Tue 62 63 NW 7 16508 13668 1468 White 3
5 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 16066 12200 0 White 1
6 PM Tue 60 60 NW 7 14007 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 NW 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 NW 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NW 7 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 52 NW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 56 NW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 61 NW 5 16066 12200 0 White 1
11 AM Wed 60 64 NW 5 16727 15723 3523 White 4
12 Noon Wed 62 65 NW 6 16945 16428 4228 White 5
1 PM Wed 63 66 NW 6 17164 17164 4964 White 6
2 PM Wed 64 66 NW 6 17164 17164 4964 White 6
3 PM Wed 64 66 NW 6 17164 17164 4964 White 6
4 PM Wed 63 64 NW 6 16727 15723 3523 White 4
5 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 16287 12200 0 White 2
6 PM Wed 61 61 NW 8 16066 12200 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 59 59 NW 8 10736 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 NW 8 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NW 8 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NW 8 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NW 8 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 E 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 SW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 SW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 SW 5 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 61 SW 5 16066 12200 0 White 1
11 AM Thu 59 64 SW 5 16727 15723 3523 White 4
12 Noon Thu 62 66 NW 7 17164 17164 4964 White 6
1 PM Thu 63 67 NW 7 17382 17382 5182 White 7
2 PM Thu 64 67 NW 7 17382 17382 5182 White 7
3 PM Thu 64 66 NW 7 17164 17164 4964 White 6
4 PM Thu 63 64 NW 7 16727 15723 3523 White 4
5 PM Thu 62 63 NW 7 16508 13668 1468 White 3
6 PM Thu 61 61 NW 9 16066 12200 0 White 1
7 PM Thu 59 59 NW 9 10736 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 NW 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 NW 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 9 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 10512 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com