Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 6 6 S 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 7 7 SSW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 7 7 SSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 7 7 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 8 8 SW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 9 9 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 10 10 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 11 11 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 12 12 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 13 13 W 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 15 16 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 17 18 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 19 20 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 19 21 W 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 19 21 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 19 21 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 18 19 WNW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 17 17 WNW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 16 16 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 14 14 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 12 12 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 10 10 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 5 5 SE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 0 0 SE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun -5 -5 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun -5 -5 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun -5 -5 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun -5 -5 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun -4 -4 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun -4 -4 SE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun -3 -3 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun -2 -2 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun -1 -1 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 0 0 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 3 4 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 6 8 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 10 14 NE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 11 15 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 11 14 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 12 14 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 11 12 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 10 10 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 9 9 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 7 7 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 4 4 E 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 2 2 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 1 1 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 0 0 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 0 0 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 0 0 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 0 0 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 0 0 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 0 0 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 0 0 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 0 0 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 2 2 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 5 5 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 7 8 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 12 15 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 17 21 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 22 26 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 23 27 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 24 27 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 25 27 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 24 25 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 23 23 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 23 23 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 21 21 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 19 19 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 17 17 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 14 14 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 10 10 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com