Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 12 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 40 S 14 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 42 S 15 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 45 S 15 13125 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 43 46 S 15 13468 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 44 47 S 15 13947 12608 408 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 44 47 S 15 13947 12608 408 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 45 47 S 15 13947 12608 408 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 45 46 S 15 13468 12200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 45 46 S 15 13468 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 45 45 S 14 13125 12200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 45 45 S 13 13125 12200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 43 43 S 10 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 35 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 39 S 10 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 43 S 12 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 48 S 13 14481 13091 891 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 44 49 S 14 15259 13442 1242 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 45 50 S 14 16296 13893 1693 White 6
1 PM Wed 46 51 S 14 16514 14420 2220 White 7
2 PM Wed 48 52 S 13 16732 15147 2947 White 8
3 PM Wed 49 52 S 13 16732 15147 2947 White 8
4 PM Wed 49 51 S 13 16514 14420 2220 White 7
5 PM Wed 50 51 SW 12 16514 14420 2220 White 7
6 PM Wed 48 48 SW 12 14481 13091 891 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 46 46 SW 9 13468 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 43 43 SW 7 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 S 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 38 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 44 S 7 12640 12200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 44 49 S 7 15259 13442 1242 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 47 53 S 7 16951 16951 4751 White 9
11 AM Thu 49 57 SW 8 17818 17818 5618 White 13
12 Noon Thu 51 59 SW 9 18261 18261 6061 White 15
1 PM Thu 52 60 SW 9 18481 18481 6281 White 16
2 PM Thu 53 59 SW 10 18261 18261 6061 White 15
3 PM Thu 54 58 SW 10 18039 18039 5839 White 14
4 PM Thu 55 58 SW 10 18039 18039 5839 White 14
5 PM Thu 55 56 SW 10 17601 17601 5401 White 12
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 17168 17168 4968 White 10
7 PM Thu 51 51 SW 9 16514 14420 2220 White 7
8 PM Thu 47 47 SW 8 13947 12608 408 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 43 43 SW 7 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 SW 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 39 S 8 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 43 S 8 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 49 S 8 15259 13442 1242 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 47 53 SW 7 16951 16951 4751 White 9
11 AM Fri 50 58 SW 7 18039 18039 5839 White 14
12 Noon Fri 53 61 SW 7 18702 18702 6502 White 17
1 PM Fri 55 62 SW 7 18921 18921 6721 White 18
2 PM Fri 57 63 SW 7 19127 19127 6927 White 19
3 PM Fri 57 61 SW 8 18702 18702 6502 White 17
4 PM Fri 57 59 SW 8 18261 18261 6061 White 15
5 PM Fri 56 57 SW 9 17818 17818 5618 White 13
6 PM Fri 55 55 SW 9 17384 17384 5184 White 11
7 PM Fri 53 53 SW 9 16951 16951 4751 White 9
8 PM Fri 51 51 SW 9 16514 14420 2220 White 7
9 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 14481 13091 891 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 46 46 SW 9 13468 12200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 43 43 SW 9 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 41 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 46 S 9 13468 12200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 46 50 S 9 16296 13893 1693 White 6
10 AM Sat 50 56 S 9 17601 17601 5401 White 12
11 AM Sat 53 60 S 9 18481 18481 6281 White 16
12 Noon Sat 55 63 S 12 19127 19127 6927 White 19
1 PM Sat 57 64 S 12 19332 19332 7132 White 20
2 PM Sat 58 64 S 12 19332 19332 7132 White 20
3 PM Sat 58 62 S 12 18921 18921 6721 White 18
4 PM Sat 58 61 S 12 18702 18702 6502 White 17
5 PM Sat 57 58 S 12 18039 18039 5839 White 14
6 PM Sat 55 55 S 15 17384 17384 5184 White 11
7 PM Sat 54 54 S 15 17168 17168 4968 White 10
8 PM Sat 52 52 S 15 16732 15147 2947 White 8
9 PM Sat 49 49 S 15 15259 13442 1242 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 47 47 S 15 13947 12608 408 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 45 45 S 15 13125 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 9 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 S 12 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 40 S 12 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 43 S 12 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 48 S 12 14481 13091 891 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 46 52 S 12 16732 15147 2947 White 8
11 AM Sun 49 56 S 12 17601 17601 5401 White 12
12 Noon Sun 51 58 S 12 18039 18039 5839 White 14
1 PM Sun 52 59 S 12 18261 18261 6061 White 15
2 PM Sun 53 59 S 12 18261 18261 6061 White 15
3 PM Sun 54 58 S 12 18039 18039 5839 White 14
4 PM Sun 53 55 S 12 17384 17384 5184 White 11
5 PM Sun 52 53 S 12 16951 16951 4751 White 9
6 PM Sun 51 51 SW 13 16514 14420 2220 White 7
7 PM Sun 50 50 SW 13 16296 13893 1693 White 6
8 PM Sun 47 47 SW 13 13947 12608 408 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 45 45 SW 13 13125 12200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 43 43 SW 13 11835 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 SW 13 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 SE 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SE 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 SE 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 SE 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 SE 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 SE 6 10787 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com