Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 16 16 E 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 16 16 E 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 15 15 E 8 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 E 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 18 18 E 6 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 22 23 E 5 11378 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 24 26 E 5 11598 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 26 28 NE 5 12098 12200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 27 29 NW 5 12537 12200 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 27 28 W 6 12098 12200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 25 25 SW 6 11525 12200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 22 22 S 6 11305 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 20 20 S 7 10970 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 18 18 S 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 17 17 S 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 16 16 S 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 15 15 S 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 15 15 S 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 15 15 SE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 14 14 SE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 14 14 SE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 14 14 SE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 14 14 SE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 SE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 14 14 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 14 14 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 14 14 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 14 14 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 17 17 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 20 21 S 9 11139 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 24 W 7 11451 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 24 26 W 7 11598 12200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 25 27 W 7 11850 12200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 25 26 W 7 11598 12200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 24 24 W 7 11451 12200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 21 21 W 7 11139 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 19 19 SW 7 10801 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 18 18 SW 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 16 16 SW 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 16 16 SW 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 15 15 SW 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 15 15 SW 7 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 15 15 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 15 15 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 15 15 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 15 15 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 15 15 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 14 14 S 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 14 14 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 14 14 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 16 16 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 17 17 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 18 19 NW 9 10801 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 19 20 NW 9 10970 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 20 21 NW 9 11139 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 19 20 NW 9 10970 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 18 19 NW 9 10801 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 17 17 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 15 15 NW 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 14 14 N 13 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 12 12 N 13 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 12 12 N 13 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 11 11 N 13 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 11 11 N 13 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 10 10 N 13 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 10 10 N 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 10 10 N 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 10 10 N 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 10 10 N 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 9 9 N 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 8 8 N 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 8 8 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 8 8 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 9 9 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 10 10 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 12 12 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 14 14 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 15 16 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 16 17 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 16 17 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 16 17 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 15 15 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 13 13 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 12 12 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 11 11 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 10 10 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 10 10 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 10 10 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 10 10 N 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 10 10 NE 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 10 10 NE 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 10 10 NE 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 10 10 NE 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 10 10 NE 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 10 10 NE 12 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 10 10 NE 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 11 11 NE 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 12 12 NE 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 13 13 NE 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 14 14 NE 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 16 17 NE 10 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 18 19 N 9 10801 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 19 21 N 9 11139 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 20 22 N 9 11305 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 20 21 N 9 11139 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 18 18 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 17 17 N 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 14 14 NE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 0 0 NE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 0 0 NE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 0 0 NE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 0 0 NE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 0 0 NE 9 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 0 1 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 0 2 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 0 2 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 0 2 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 0 1 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 0 0 N 0 10738 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com