Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 35 35 SW 24 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 35 35 SW 26 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 35 35 SW 28 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 36 36 SW 30 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 35 35 SW 31 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 34 34 SW 31 12818 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 32 SW 32 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 31 31 SW 32 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 30 30 SW 32 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 29 29 SW 33 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 28 28 SW 36 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 27 27 SW 37 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 W 38 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 27 27 W 38 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 27 27 W 36 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 24 24 W 32 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 20 20 NW 28 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 18 18 NW 23 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 15 15 NW 17 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 13 13 NW 15 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 11 11 N 14 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 10 10 N 13 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 9 9 N 12 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 8 8 NE 10 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 8 8 NE 10 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 10 10 NE 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 12 12 NE 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 14 14 NE 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 17 18 NE 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 20 21 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 22 24 NW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 25 27 NW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 26 28 NW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 26 27 NW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 24 25 NW 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 21 21 NW 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 19 19 NW 5 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 18 18 W 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 17 17 W 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 17 17 W 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 17 17 W 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 17 17 SW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 17 17 SW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 17 17 SW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 17 17 SW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 17 17 SW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 16 16 SW 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 16 16 S 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 16 16 S 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 S 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 S 5 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 S 5 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 23 23 SW 5 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 28 29 SW 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 31 33 W 6 11641 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 36 W 6 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 34 36 W 7 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 34 35 W 7 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 31 31 W 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 27 27 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 23 23 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 21 21 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 20 20 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 19 19 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 18 18 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 18 18 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 18 18 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 17 17 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 18 18 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 18 18 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 18 18 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 18 18 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 18 18 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 18 18 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 20 20 SW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 22 22 SW 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 25 25 W 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 28 29 W 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 32 33 W 7 11641 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 35 W 7 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 35 36 W 7 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 34 34 W 7 12818 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 32 32 W 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 29 29 W 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 26 26 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 24 24 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 23 23 NW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 NW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 22 22 NW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 22 22 NW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 21 21 NW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 NW 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 29 30 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 32 33 N 6 11641 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 36 N 6 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 35 36 N 6 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 35 36 N 6 13863 12200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 33 33 N 6 11641 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 30 30 N 6 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 27 27 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 26 26 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 25 25 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 24 24 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 N 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 24 24 E 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 E 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 23 23 E 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 23 23 E 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 23 23 E 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 23 23 E 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 25 25 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 30 N 8 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 N 8 13348 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 37 38 NW 6 14549 13306 1106 White 4
12 Noon Wed 39 41 NW 6 15213 14768 2568 White 7
1 PM Wed 40 41 NW 6 15213 14768 2568 White 7
2 PM Wed 40 41 NW 6 15213 14768 2568 White 7
3 PM Wed 38 38 NW 6 14549 13306 1106 White 4
4 PM Wed 34 34 NW 6 12818 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 32 32 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 30 30 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 28 28 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 27 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 W 9 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 S 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 S 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 S 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 S 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 S 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 S 7 10797 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com