Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 19 19 E 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 19 19 NE 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 19 19 NE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 20 20 NE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 23 23 NE 6 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 27 28 N 6 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 32 N 6 11149 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 32 34 N 6 12132 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 33 35 NW 6 12438 12200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 33 34 NW 6 12132 12200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 32 33 NW 6 11647 12200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 30 30 W 6 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 W 6 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 26 SW 6 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 25 25 SW 6 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 SW 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 23 23 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 23 23 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 S 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 22 22 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 22 22 S 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 S 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 S 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 29 30 S 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 33 SW 9 11647 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 33 35 SW 9 12438 12200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 34 35 SW 9 12438 12200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 33 34 SW 10 12132 12200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 32 32 SW 12 11149 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 30 30 SW 12 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 28 28 S 13 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 27 27 S 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 25 25 S 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 25 25 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 23 23 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 23 23 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 22 22 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 22 22 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 22 22 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 22 22 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 22 22 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 22 22 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 24 24 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 25 25 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 25 25 S 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 25 25 S 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 24 24 S 13 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 23 23 S 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 22 22 S 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 21 21 S 17 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 19 19 S 17 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 17 17 SW 17 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 16 16 SW 16 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 15 15 SW 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 14 14 SW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 13 13 SW 13 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 12 12 SW 12 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 10 10 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 9 9 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 8 8 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 8 8 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 7 7 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 7 7 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 7 7 W 10 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 7 7 W 12 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 9 9 NW 12 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 10 10 NW 13 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 11 11 NW 13 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 12 12 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 12 12 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 12 12 NW 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 12 12 NW 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 12 12 NW 15 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 12 12 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 11 11 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 10 10 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 9 9 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 8 8 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 7 7 NW 14 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 6 6 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 5 5 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 4 4 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 4 4 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 4 4 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 5 5 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 6 6 N 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 8 8 N 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 10 10 N 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 13 13 N 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 16 16 N 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 18 19 N 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 20 21 NW 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 21 22 NW 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 21 22 NW 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 21 22 NW 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 21 21 NW 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 20 20 NW 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 18 18 W 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 17 17 W 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 16 16 W 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 15 15 W 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 14 14 W 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 13 13 W 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 12 12 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 11 11 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 11 11 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 11 11 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 11 11 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 11 11 SW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 12 12 W 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 14 14 W 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 W 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 17 17 W 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 19 19 W 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 20 20 W 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 22 23 NW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 22 23 NW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 22 23 NW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 22 23 NW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 21 21 NW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 20 20 NW 8 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 19 19 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 18 18 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 17 17 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 16 16 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 15 15 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 14 14 N 9 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 13 13 SE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 12 12 SE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 11 11 SE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 11 11 SE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 11 11 SE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 11 11 SE 7 10823 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com