Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 14 14 S 9 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 18 18 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 22 23 S 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 28 S 7 14009 12200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 29 33 S 8 16042 14667 2467 White 7
11 AM Tue 32 37 SE 9 16908 16908 4708 White 11
12 Noon Tue 34 39 SE 12 17332 17332 5132 White 13
1 PM Tue 35 40 S 14 17543 17543 5343 White 14
2 PM Tue 35 38 S 15 17121 17121 4921 White 12
3 PM Tue 35 37 S 16 16908 16908 4708 White 11
4 PM Tue 36 37 S 16 16908 16908 4708 White 11
5 PM Tue 36 36 S 16 16693 16693 4493 White 10
6 PM Tue 36 36 S 16 16693 16693 4493 White 10
7 PM Tue 34 34 S 15 16259 16259 4059 White 8
8 PM Tue 32 32 S 14 15825 14322 2122 White 6
9 PM Tue 29 29 S 13 14363 12200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 28 28 S 13 14009 12200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 28 28 S 12 14009 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 S 12 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 27 27 S 10 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 27 27 S 9 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 27 27 SW 9 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 26 26 SW 9 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 S 10 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 27 27 S 10 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 27 27 S 10 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 28 29 S 9 14363 12200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 30 32 S 9 15825 14322 2122 White 6
10 AM Wed 33 36 S 10 16693 16693 4493 White 10
11 AM Wed 36 39 S 12 17332 17332 5132 White 13
12 Noon Wed 38 41 S 13 17753 17753 5553 White 15
1 PM Wed 39 42 S 15 17969 17969 5769 White 16
2 PM Wed 39 41 S 17 17753 17753 5553 White 15
3 PM Wed 39 40 SW 18 17543 17543 5343 White 14
4 PM Wed 40 40 SW 18 17543 17543 5343 White 14
5 PM Wed 40 40 SW 17 17543 17543 5343 White 14
6 PM Wed 40 40 SW 16 17543 17543 5343 White 14
7 PM Wed 38 38 SW 15 17121 17121 4921 White 12
8 PM Wed 35 35 S 13 16476 16476 4276 White 9
9 PM Wed 32 32 S 12 15825 14322 2122 White 6
10 PM Wed 31 31 S 12 15607 13972 1772 White 5
11 PM Wed 30 30 S 12 14712 13674 1474 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 S 12 14712 13674 1474 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 29 29 S 12 14363 12200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 27 27 S 12 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 26 26 S 12 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 S 12 10608 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 S 12 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 S 12 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 S 12 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 28 SW 12 14009 12200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 28 30 SW 12 14712 13674 1474 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 30 34 SW 13 16259 16259 4059 White 8
11 AM Thu 32 36 SW 13 16693 16693 4493 White 10
12 Noon Thu 33 37 SW 14 16908 16908 4708 White 11
1 PM Thu 34 38 SW 14 17121 17121 4921 White 12
2 PM Thu 34 37 SW 15 16908 16908 4708 White 11
3 PM Thu 34 36 SW 15 16693 16693 4493 White 10
4 PM Thu 35 36 SW 16 16693 16693 4493 White 10
5 PM Thu 35 35 SW 16 16476 16476 4276 White 9
6 PM Thu 35 35 SW 16 16476 16476 4276 White 9
7 PM Thu 33 33 SW 15 16042 14667 2467 White 7
8 PM Thu 30 30 SW 14 14712 13674 1474 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 28 28 SW 13 14009 12200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 26 26 SW 13 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 SW 14 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 SW 14 10608 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 SW 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 22 22 SW 13 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 SW 13 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 19 19 SW 13 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 18 18 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 18 18 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 18 18 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 18 18 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 18 19 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 19 21 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 20 22 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 21 24 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 21 24 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 22 24 W 15 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 22 23 W 16 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 22 22 W 16 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 21 21 W 16 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 21 21 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 20 20 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 19 19 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 18 18 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 17 17 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 16 16 W 14 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 15 15 NW 6 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 14 14 NW 6 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 13 13 NW 6 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 12 12 NW 6 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 11 11 NW 6 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 11 11 NW 6 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 12 12 SE 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 13 13 SE 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 15 15 SE 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 16 17 SE 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 18 20 SE 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 20 23 SE 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 22 24 SW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 22 24 SW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 23 24 SW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 23 24 SW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 23 23 SW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 22 22 SW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 21 21 W 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 20 20 W 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 19 19 W 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 18 18 W 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 17 17 W 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 16 16 W 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 15 15 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 14 14 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 13 13 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 13 13 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 12 12 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 13 13 S 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 13 13 S 10 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 14 14 S 10 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 S 10 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 18 19 S 10 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 20 22 S 10 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 21 24 S 10 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 23 26 W 7 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 24 27 W 7 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 25 27 W 7 13706 12200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 25 26 W 7 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 25 26 W 7 11965 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 24 24 W 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 24 24 NW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 23 23 NW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 22 22 NW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 20 20 NW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 19 19 NW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 18 18 NW 8 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 16 16 NW 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 15 15 NW 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 14 14 NW 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 13 13 NW 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 13 13 NW 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 13 13 NW 7 10207 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com