Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

11 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 14 15133 14619 2419 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 38 39 S 15 15316 14753 2553 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 38 41 S 17 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 39 44 S 18 18541 15870 3670 White 16
10 AM Sun 41 47 S 20 19176 19176 6976 White 19
11 AM Sun 41 47 S 21 19176 19176 6976 White 19
12 Noon Sun 42 47 S 22 19176 19176 6976 White 19
1 PM Sun 42 45 S 22 18757 18757 6557 White 17
2 PM Sun 42 44 S 22 18541 15870 3670 White 16
3 PM Sun 42 43 S 21 18325 15502 3302 White 15
4 PM Sun 41 41 S 20 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 40 40 S 17 15561 14925 2725 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 38 38 S 15 15133 14619 2419 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 36 36 S 13 14770 14352 2152 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 34 34 S 12 14502 12549 349 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 33 33 S 10 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 31 31 S 10 12565 12200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 30 30 S 10 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 S 10 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 28 28 S 10 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 S 10 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 S 10 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 S 10 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 S 12 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 S 13 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 S 13 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 S 14 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 30 31 S 15 12565 12200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 31 32 S 15 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 31 32 S 15 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 32 33 S 14 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 32 33 S 14 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 33 33 S 15 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 32 32 S 16 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 32 32 S 15 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 30 30 S 13 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 28 28 S 10 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 26 26 S 10 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 25 25 S 9 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 23 23 S 9 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 22 22 SW 9 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 22 22 SW 9 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 SW 9 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 21 21 SW 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 21 21 SW 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 21 21 SW 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 20 20 SW 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 20 20 W 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 20 20 W 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 21 21 W 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 22 22 W 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 24 25 W 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 26 27 W 8 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 28 29 W 8 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 30 31 W 8 12565 12200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 31 32 W 8 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 31 31 W 9 12565 12200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 32 32 W 9 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 32 32 W 9 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 32 32 W 8 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 31 31 W 7 12565 12200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 30 30 W 6 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 29 29 NW 6 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 28 28 NW 5 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 26 NW 3 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 25 25 W 3 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 W 3 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 23 23 W 3 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 22 22 SW 5 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 22 22 S 5 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 22 22 SW 5 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 22 22 W 6 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 W 6 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 W 6 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 27 W 6 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 29 30 W 6 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 31 33 W 5 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 33 35 W 5 14636 14151 1951 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 35 37 W 5 14950 14486 2286 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 37 39 W 5 15316 14753 2553 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 37 39 W 5 15316 14753 2553 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 38 39 W 5 15316 14753 2553 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 37 38 W 6 15133 14619 2419 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 36 36 W 6 14770 14352 2152 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 36 36 W 6 14770 14352 2152 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 34 34 W 6 14502 12549 349 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 33 33 W 6 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 32 32 W 6 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 30 30 W 6 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 29 29 W 6 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 S 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 S 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 S 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 S 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 S 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 S 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 SW 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 SW 7 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 31 32 SW 7 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 33 36 SW 7 14770 14352 2152 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 35 39 SW 7 15316 14753 2553 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 36 40 SW 7 15561 14925 2725 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 38 40 SW 8 15561 14925 2725 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 39 41 SW 8 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 39 41 SW 8 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 40 41 SW 8 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 40 41 SW 8 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 39 39 SW 8 15316 14753 2553 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 38 38 SW 7 15133 14619 2419 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 37 37 SW 7 14950 14486 2286 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 36 36 SW 7 14770 14352 2152 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 34 34 SW 7 14502 12549 349 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 33 33 SW 7 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 32 32 SW 7 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 SW 7 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 29 29 SW 7 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 29 29 SW 7 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 28 28 SW 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 SW 7 10092 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 SW 7 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 30 30 SW 7 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 7 12565 12200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 33 34 SW 7 14502 12549 349 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 35 38 SW 7 15133 14619 2419 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 38 42 SW 7 18108 15289 3089 White 14
11 AM Fri 40 45 SW 7 18757 18757 6557 White 17
12 Noon Fri 41 45 SW 8 18757 18757 6557 White 17
1 PM Fri 42 46 SW 8 18967 18967 6767 White 18
2 PM Fri 43 46 SW 8 18967 18967 6767 White 18
3 PM Fri 44 46 SW 8 18967 18967 6767 White 18
4 PM Fri 43 44 SW 8 18541 15870 3670 White 16
5 PM Fri 43 43 SW 8 18325 15502 3302 White 15
6 PM Fri 42 42 W 7 18108 15289 3089 White 14
7 PM Fri 41 41 W 7 15933 15107 2907 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 40 40 W 7 15561 14925 2725 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 7 15133 14619 2419 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 36 36 W 7 14770 14352 2152 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 35 35 W 7 14636 14151 1951 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 SW 5 14368 12313 113 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 32 32 SW 5 14233 12200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 30 30 SW 5 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 30 30 SW 5 12324 12200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 29 29 SW 5 12096 12200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 5 12324 12200 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com