Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

11 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 7 19383 19383 7183 White 20
7 AM Tue 51 52 SW 6 20214 20214 8014 White 24
8 AM Tue 54 56 W 6 21035 21035 8835 White 27
9 AM Tue 57 60 W 6 21840 21840 9640 White 31
10 AM Tue 60 65 W 7 22835 22835 10635 White 36
11 AM Tue 61 65 W 9 22835 22835 10635 White 36
12 Noon Tue 62 67 SW 12 23230 23230 11030 White 38
1 PM Tue 63 68 SW 13 23427 23427 11227 White 39
2 PM Tue 63 66 SW 14 23033 23033 10833 White 37
3 PM Tue 64 66 SW 14 23033 23033 10833 White 37
4 PM Tue 65 66 SW 13 23033 23033 10833 White 37
5 PM Tue 65 66 SW 12 23033 23033 10833 White 37
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 10 22636 22636 10436 White 35
7 PM Tue 62 62 S 9 22240 22240 10040 White 33
8 PM Tue 58 58 S 8 21440 21440 9240 White 29
9 PM Tue 55 55 S 7 20831 20831 8631 White 26
10 PM Tue 54 54 S 7 20626 20626 8426 White 25
11 PM Tue 53 53 S 8 20421 20421 8221 White 25
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 S 9 20214 20214 8014 White 24
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 9 20214 20214 8014 White 24
2 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 20008 20008 7808 White 23
3 AM Wed 50 50 S 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 8 19592 19592 7392 White 21
5 AM Wed 48 48 SW 9 19383 19383 7183 White 20
6 AM Wed 48 48 SW 9 19383 19383 7183 White 20
7 AM Wed 50 51 SW 8 20008 20008 7808 White 23
8 AM Wed 52 54 W 7 20626 20626 8426 White 25
9 AM Wed 54 58 W 7 21440 21440 9240 White 29
10 AM Wed 56 61 W 9 22040 22040 9840 White 32
11 AM Wed 57 64 SW 13 22636 22636 10436 White 35
12 Noon Wed 58 64 SW 16 22636 22636 10436 White 35
1 PM Wed 59 65 SW 17 22835 22835 10635 White 36
2 PM Wed 60 65 SW 17 22835 22835 10635 White 36
3 PM Wed 60 64 SW 17 22636 22636 10436 White 35
4 PM Wed 61 63 SW 16 22438 22438 10238 White 34
5 PM Wed 61 62 SW 15 22240 22240 10040 White 33
6 PM Wed 60 60 SW 15 21840 21840 9640 White 31
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 15 21440 21440 9240 White 29
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 16 20831 20831 8631 White 26
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 14 20214 20214 8014 White 24
10 PM Wed 51 51 SW 13 20008 20008 7808 White 23
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 12 19800 19800 7600 White 22
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 12 19800 19800 7600 White 22
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 12 19592 19592 7392 White 21
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 10 19383 19383 7183 White 20
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 10 19176 19176 6976 White 19
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 10 18967 18967 6767 White 18
5 AM Thu 46 46 S 10 18967 18967 6767 White 18
6 AM Thu 46 46 S 10 18967 18967 6767 White 18
7 AM Thu 48 49 S 10 19592 19592 7392 White 21
8 AM Thu 51 53 SW 10 20421 20421 8221 White 25
9 AM Thu 54 58 SW 10 21440 21440 9240 White 29
10 AM Thu 56 61 W 12 22040 22040 9840 White 32
11 AM Thu 57 64 W 14 22636 22636 10436 White 35
12 Noon Thu 59 65 W 15 22835 22835 10635 White 36
1 PM Thu 60 66 W 16 23033 23033 10833 White 37
2 PM Thu 61 66 W 16 23033 23033 10833 White 37
3 PM Thu 62 66 W 15 23033 23033 10833 White 37
4 PM Thu 63 66 W 15 23033 23033 10833 White 37
5 PM Thu 63 64 W 15 22636 22636 10436 White 35
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 13 22240 22240 10040 White 33
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 13 21840 21840 9640 White 31
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 13 21238 21238 9038 White 28
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 13 20626 20626 8426 White 25
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 13 20214 20214 8014 White 24
11 PM Thu 50 50 W 13 19800 19800 7600 White 22
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 S 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
1 AM Fri 49 49 S 8 19592 19592 7392 White 21
2 AM Fri 48 48 S 8 19383 19383 7183 White 20
3 AM Fri 47 47 S 8 19176 19176 6976 White 19
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 18967 18967 6767 White 18
5 AM Fri 45 45 S 8 18757 18757 6557 White 17
6 AM Fri 46 46 S 6 18967 18967 6767 White 18
7 AM Fri 48 49 S 6 19592 19592 7392 White 21
8 AM Fri 51 53 S 6 20421 20421 8221 White 25
9 AM Fri 55 59 S 6 21641 21641 9441 White 30
10 AM Fri 57 63 S 6 22438 22438 10238 White 34
11 AM Fri 59 66 S 6 23033 23033 10833 White 37
12 Noon Fri 60 66 W 13 23033 23033 10833 White 37
1 PM Fri 61 67 W 13 23230 23230 11030 White 38
2 PM Fri 62 67 W 13 23230 23230 11030 White 38
3 PM Fri 62 66 W 13 23033 23033 10833 White 37
4 PM Fri 63 65 W 13 22835 22835 10635 White 36
5 PM Fri 63 64 W 13 22636 22636 10436 White 35
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 12 22240 22240 10040 White 33
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 21641 21641 9441 White 30
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 12 21238 21238 9038 White 28
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 12 20626 20626 8426 White 25
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 12 20421 20421 8221 White 25
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 20214 20214 8014 White 24
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SE 9 20008 20008 7808 White 23
1 AM Sat 50 50 SE 9 19800 19800 7600 White 22
2 AM Sat 50 50 SE 9 19800 19800 7600 White 22
3 AM Sat 49 49 SE 9 19592 19592 7392 White 21
4 AM Sat 48 48 SE 9 19383 19383 7183 White 20
5 AM Sat 47 47 SE 9 19176 19176 6976 White 19
6 AM Sat 48 48 S 5 19383 19383 7183 White 20
7 AM Sat 50 51 S 5 20008 20008 7808 White 23
8 AM Sat 54 56 S 5 21035 21035 8835 White 27
9 AM Sat 58 62 S 5 22240 22240 10040 White 33
10 AM Sat 60 65 S 5 22835 22835 10635 White 36
11 AM Sat 61 68 S 5 23427 23427 11227 White 39
12 Noon Sat 62 67 W 12 23230 23230 11030 White 38
1 PM Sat 62 66 W 12 23033 23033 10833 White 37
2 PM Sat 62 66 W 12 23033 23033 10833 White 37
3 PM Sat 63 66 W 12 23033 23033 10833 White 37
4 PM Sat 63 65 W 12 22835 22835 10635 White 36
5 PM Sat 62 63 W 12 22438 22438 10238 White 34
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 22040 22040 9840 White 32
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 10 21641 21641 9441 White 30
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 21035 21035 8835 White 27
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 20626 20626 8426 White 25
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 20214 20214 8014 White 24
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 20008 20008 7808 White 23
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 S 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
3 AM Sun 49 49 S 8 19592 19592 7392 White 21
4 AM Sun 48 48 S 8 19383 19383 7183 White 20
5 AM Sun 47 47 S 8 19176 19176 6976 White 19
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 2 19176 19176 6976 White 19
7 AM Sun 49 49 S 2 19592 19592 7392 White 21
8 AM Sun 53 55 S 2 20831 20831 8631 White 26
9 AM Sun 56 59 S 2 21641 21641 9441 White 30
10 AM Sun 59 63 S 2 22438 22438 10238 White 34
11 AM Sun 61 66 S 2 23033 23033 10833 White 37
12 Noon Sun 62 65 W 8 22835 22835 10635 White 36
1 PM Sun 63 66 W 8 23033 23033 10833 White 37
2 PM Sun 64 66 W 8 23033 23033 10833 White 37
3 PM Sun 64 66 W 8 23033 23033 10833 White 37
4 PM Sun 64 65 W 8 22835 22835 10635 White 36
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 8 22438 22438 10238 White 34
6 PM Sun 62 62 NW 8 22240 22240 10040 White 33
7 PM Sun 59 59 NW 8 21641 21641 9441 White 30
8 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 21035 21035 8835 White 27
9 PM Sun 53 53 NW 8 20421 20421 8221 White 25
10 PM Sun 51 51 NW 8 20008 20008 7808 White 23
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 8 19800 19800 7600 White 22
2 AM Mon 49 49 E 8 19592 19592 7392 White 21
3 AM Mon 48 48 E 8 19383 19383 7183 White 20
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 8 19176 19176 6976 White 19
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 18967 18967 6767 White 18

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com