Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 41 41 S 13 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 S 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SW 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SW 16 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 45 SW 18 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 46 SW 21 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 46 46 SW 22 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 47 SW 23 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 47 SW 23 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 SW 22 10841 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 SW 21 10841 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 SW 20 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 S 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 S 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 S 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 S 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 S 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 S 15 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 S 10 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 10 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 42 S 10 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 46 S 10 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 49 S 10 16310 12200 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 47 51 S 10 16744 12200 0 White 2
12 Noon Wed 49 52 SW 14 16961 15421 3221 White 3
1 PM Wed 50 53 SW 14 17177 17177 4977 White 4
2 PM Wed 51 54 SW 14 17393 17393 5193 White 5
3 PM Wed 52 54 SW 14 17393 17393 5193 White 5
4 PM Wed 52 53 SW 14 17177 17177 4977 White 4
5 PM Wed 52 52 SW 14 16961 15421 3221 White 3
6 PM Wed 50 50 SW 9 16527 12200 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 48 48 SW 9 10841 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 SW 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 SW 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 SW 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 S 9 10841 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 50 S 9 16527 12200 0 White 1
12 Noon Thu 48 51 W 12 16744 12200 0 White 2
1 PM Thu 49 52 W 12 16961 15421 3221 White 3
2 PM Thu 50 52 W 12 16961 15421 3221 White 3
3 PM Thu 50 51 W 12 16744 12200 0 White 2
4 PM Thu 50 50 W 12 16527 12200 0 White 1
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 12 16527 12200 0 White 1
6 PM Thu 49 49 SW 8 16310 12200 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 SW 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 SW 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SW 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 SW 8 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 S 13 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 S 13 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 13 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 45 S 13 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 48 S 13 10841 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 50 S 13 16527 12200 0 White 1
12 Noon Fri 48 51 SW 18 16744 12200 0 White 2
1 PM Fri 50 53 SW 18 17177 17177 4977 White 4
2 PM Fri 51 53 SW 18 17177 17177 4977 White 4
3 PM Fri 51 52 SW 18 16961 15421 3221 White 3
4 PM Fri 51 52 SW 18 16961 15421 3221 White 3
5 PM Fri 51 51 SW 18 16744 12200 0 White 2
6 PM Fri 49 49 SW 14 16310 12200 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 SW 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 SW 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 SW 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 S 12 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 S 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 S 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 S 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 S 14 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 48 S 14 10841 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 51 S 14 16744 12200 0 White 2
12 Noon Sat 50 52 SW 21 16961 15421 3221 White 3
1 PM Sat 51 53 SW 21 17177 17177 4977 White 4
2 PM Sat 51 53 SW 21 17177 17177 4977 White 4
3 PM Sat 51 52 SW 21 16961 15421 3221 White 3
4 PM Sat 51 51 SW 21 16744 12200 0 White 2
5 PM Sat 51 51 SW 21 16744 12200 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 15 16527 12200 0 White 1
7 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 0 1 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 0 2 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 0 4 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 0 5 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 0 6 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 0 6 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 0 5 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 0 3 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 0 2 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 0 0 N 0 10239 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com