Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 23 23 NW 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 NW 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NW 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 25 25 NW 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 29 NW 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 33 NW 14 11250 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 34 36 NW 15 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 36 39 NW 15 12336 12200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 36 38 NW 15 12226 12200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 36 38 NW 15 12226 12200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 35 36 NW 14 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 34 34 NW 12 11663 12200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 32 32 NW 10 10705 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 30 30 NW 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 28 28 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 25 25 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 24 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 24 24 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 24 24 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 24 24 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 24 24 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 24 24 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 NW 7 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 23 NW 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 N 7 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 N 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 24 24 N 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 28 N 7 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 34 NW 6 11663 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 36 38 NW 7 12226 12200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 38 40 NW 8 12523 12200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 39 41 NW 8 13508 12222 22 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 39 40 NW 9 12523 12200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 38 39 NW 8 12336 12200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 36 36 W 8 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 33 33 W 7 11250 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 31 31 W 7 10212 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 SW 7 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 SW 7 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 SW 7 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 S 8 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 SE 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 SE 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 27 27 SE 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 27 27 S 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 S 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 S 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 28 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 32 32 S 9 10705 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 36 SW 10 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 39 40 SW 12 12523 12200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 40 41 SW 13 13508 12222 22 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 41 41 W 14 13508 12222 22 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 40 40 W 15 12523 12200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 40 40 W 14 12523 12200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 38 38 W 12 12226 12200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 36 36 W 10 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 34 34 SW 9 11663 12200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 32 32 S 9 10705 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 28 28 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 28 S 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 27 27 S 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 S 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 27 SW 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 SW 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 SW 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 SW 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 26 SW 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 W 10 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 32 33 W 12 11250 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 34 35 W 14 11829 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 34 35 NW 16 11829 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 33 34 NW 17 11663 12200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 32 33 NW 18 11250 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 31 31 NW 20 10212 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 30 30 NW 18 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 28 28 NW 16 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 26 26 NW 16 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 24 24 NW 16 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 22 22 NW 16 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 21 21 NW 16 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 21 21 NW 16 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 20 20 N 14 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 N 14 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 20 N 14 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 N 14 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 19 19 N 14 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 19 19 N 14 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 19 19 E 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 19 19 E 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 20 20 E 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 22 22 E 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 26 E 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 29 30 E 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 32 34 N 14 11663 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 34 36 N 14 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 35 37 N 14 12133 12200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 35 36 N 14 11995 12200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 34 35 N 14 11829 12200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 32 32 N 14 10705 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 29 N 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 N 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 24 N 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 22 22 N 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 22 22 N 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 23 23 N 13 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 23 23 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 22 22 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 27 27 N 12 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 33 N 12 11250 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 38 NW 9 12226 12200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 38 40 NW 9 12523 12200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 39 41 NW 9 13508 12222 22 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 38 39 NW 9 12336 12200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 37 38 NW 9 12226 12200 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 35 35 NW 9 11829 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 32 32 SW 6 10705 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 30 30 SW 6 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 28 28 SW 6 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 27 27 SW 6 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 26 26 SW 6 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 SW 6 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 27 27 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 S 9 10164 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com