Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 ESE 3 6 15315 15315 3115 White 8
1 AM Sun 41 41 ESE 3 8 14864 14864 2664 White 6
2 AM Sun 41 41 ESE 3 8 14864 14864 2664 White 6
3 AM Sun 40 40 ESE 4 9 14638 14638 2438 White 5
4 AM Sun 39 39 ESE 4 9 14412 13574 1374 White 4
5 AM Sun 39 39 ESE 3 7 14412 13574 1374 White 4
6 AM Sun 38 38 ESE 2 6 14187 12740 540 White 3
7 AM Sun 38 38 ESE 3 7 14187 12740 540 White 3
8 AM Sun 39 39 SE 2 4 14412 13574 1374 White 4
9 AM Sun 38 38 SE 2 4 14187 12740 540 White 3
10 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 2 3 15315 15315 3115 White 8
11 AM Sun 44 46 SSE 2 3 15987 15987 3787 White 11
12 Noon Sun 52 53 SSE 1 1 17536 17536 5336 White 18
1 PM Sun 51 54 SSE 2 2 17751 17751 5551 White 19
2 PM Sun 52 54 S 3 4 17751 17751 5551 White 19
3 PM Sun 47 47 SW 4 7 16210 16210 4010 White 12
4 PM Sun 54 55 SW 5 9 17966 17966 5766 White 20
5 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 3 6 17751 17751 5551 White 19
6 PM Sun 46 46 S 1 2 15987 15987 3787 White 11
7 PM Sun 50 50 SSE 3 5 16878 16878 4678 White 15
8 PM Sun 48 48 SE 3 6 16433 16433 4233 White 13
9 PM Sun 39 39 SSE 4 8 14412 13574 1374 White 4
10 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 4 8 15315 15315 3115 White 8
11 PM Sun 40 40 ESE 4 8 14638 14638 2438 White 5
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 ESE 4 8 13733 12200 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 34 34 ESE 3 7 11973 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 ENE 2 4 11973 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NE 0 0 13505 12200 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 E 2 5 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 E 3 7 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 6 13733 12200 0 White 1
7 AM Mon 31 31 E 2 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 E 2 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 38 ESE 2 4 14187 12740 540 White 3
10 AM Mon 45 47 SSE 2 2 16210 16210 4010 White 12
11 AM Mon 49 49 SSW 2 3 16656 16656 4456 White 14
12 Noon Mon 48 48 SW 2 3 16433 16433 4233 White 13
1 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 2 3 17100 17100 4900 White 16
2 PM Mon 52 53 W 2 3 17536 17536 5336 White 18
3 PM Mon 49 49 W 3 4 16656 16656 4456 White 14
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 2 4 16656 16656 4456 White 14
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 1 2 16433 16433 4233 White 13
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 1 2 16433 16433 4233 White 13
7 PM Mon 38 38 NNE 2 5 14187 12740 540 White 3
8 PM Mon 33 33 NE 2 5 11170 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 NE 2 6 14187 12740 540 White 3
10 PM Mon 32 32 NE 3 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 NE 3 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 NE 3 6 11973 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 ENE 2 5 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 NE 2 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NE 2 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 NE 3 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 NE 3 8 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NNE 3 8 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 NNE 3 8 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 NE 3 6 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 40 NNE 2 4 14638 14638 2438 White 5
10 AM Tue 43 46 N 2 3 15987 15987 3787 White 11
11 AM Tue 52 56 NNW 2 2 18181 18181 5981 White 21
12 Noon Tue 53 55 NW 2 3 17966 17966 5766 White 20
1 PM Tue 57 57 NW 3 3 18395 18395 6195 White 22
2 PM Tue 57 57 NW 3 4 18395 18395 6195 White 22
3 PM Tue 52 52 NW 3 3 17319 17319 5119 White 17
4 PM Tue 53 53 NNW 4 4 17536 17536 5336 White 18
5 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 4 5 16878 16878 4678 White 15
6 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 3 4 16878 16878 4678 White 15
7 PM Tue 38 38 N 4 9 14187 12740 540 White 3
8 PM Tue 34 34 NNE 4 9 11973 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 NNE 5 10 15539 15539 3339 White 9
10 PM Tue 32 32 NE 5 10 10341 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 32 32 NE 5 10 10341 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com