Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 50 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 54 SW 10 13942 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 58 SW 12 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 58 62 SW 13 17917 16689 4489 White 8
12 Noon Tue 59 64 SW 15 18349 18349 6149 White 10
1 PM Tue 60 64 SW 15 18349 18349 6149 White 10
2 PM Tue 61 65 SW 15 18571 18571 6371 White 11
3 PM Tue 61 63 SW 15 18133 18133 5933 White 9
4 PM Tue 61 62 SW 14 17917 16689 4489 White 8
5 PM Tue 61 61 SW 13 17701 16007 3807 White 7
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 12 16818 14835 2635 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 55 55 SW 9 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 51 51 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 10 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 S 9 13942 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 55 SW 9 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 54 55 SW 12 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 53 54 SW 12 13942 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 SW 10 12261 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 S 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 SW 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 SW 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 SW 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 W 5 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 40 W 3 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 44 NW 3 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 49 NW 5 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 53 NW 6 12261 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 56 NW 7 14899 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 53 57 NW 8 15392 13898 1698 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 54 58 NW 8 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 55 58 NW 8 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 55 56 NW 8 14899 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 55 55 NW 8 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 54 54 NW 8 13942 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 NW 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 N 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 E 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 E 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 SE 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 SE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 SE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 SE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 SE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SE 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 42 S 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 46 S 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 51 SW 6 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 55 SW 6 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 53 58 W 6 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 55 60 W 6 17484 15321 3121 White 6
2 PM Fri 56 60 W 7 17484 15321 3121 White 6
3 PM Fri 56 58 W 7 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 56 57 W 7 15392 13898 1698 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 12261 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 44 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 47 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 52 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 55 S 8 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 52 57 W 8 15392 13898 1698 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 54 58 W 8 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 54 58 W 8 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 55 57 W 8 15392 13898 1698 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 54 55 W 8 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 12261 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 W 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 S 7 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 45 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 48 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 52 S 8 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 55 S 8 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 53 57 SW 8 15392 13898 1698 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 54 58 SW 8 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 55 58 SW 8 16127 14345 2145 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 55 57 SW 8 15392 13898 1698 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 54 55 SW 8 14396 12200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 53 53 SW 8 12261 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 S 9 10354 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com