Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 4 4 E 5 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 6 6 E 6 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 8 8 NE 8 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 11 11 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 14 15 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 18 20 N 9 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 22 24 N 8 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 24 27 N 8 14854 14593 2393 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 25 27 NW 8 14854 14593 2393 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 25 27 NW 9 14854 14593 2393 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 23 24 NW 9 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 20 20 NW 8 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 18 18 N 8 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 16 16 N 8 10606 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 15 15 N 8 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 14 14 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 14 14 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 14 14 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 14 14 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 15 15 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 15 15 NE 9 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 14 14 E 8 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 14 14 E 8 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 14 14 E 8 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 14 14 E 8 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 15 15 E 7 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 16 16 E 7 10606 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 19 19 E 7 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 23 24 NE 6 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 27 29 N 5 15021 14759 2559 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 31 33 N 5 15355 15092 2892 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 33 35 N 5 15917 15259 3059 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 34 36 NW 6 16259 15342 3142 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 33 35 W 7 15917 15259 3059 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 31 32 NW 7 15271 15009 2809 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 28 28 NW 7 14937 14676 2476 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 26 26 NW 7 14771 13040 840 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 23 23 N 7 13200 12200 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 22 22 E 7 11939 12200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 21 21 E 7 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 21 21 E 7 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 21 21 E 6 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 21 21 E 6 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 21 21 SE 6 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 21 21 SE 5 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 21 21 SE 5 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 20 20 SE 5 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 18 18 E 6 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 19 19 S 6 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 21 21 SW 6 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 24 25 W 6 14687 12200 0 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 28 30 NW 6 15104 14843 2643 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 32 34 NW 6 15571 15175 2975 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 35 38 NW 7 16660 15857 3657 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 36 38 NW 8 16660 15857 3657 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 35 37 NW 9 16502 15515 3315 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 34 35 NW 9 15917 15259 3059 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 31 31 NW 9 15188 14926 2726 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 29 29 NW 8 15021 14759 2559 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 26 26 N 7 14771 13040 840 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 23 23 N 6 13200 12200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 22 22 N 5 11939 12200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 21 21 N 5 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 21 21 W 5 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 21 21 SW 5 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 20 20 W 5 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 20 20 W 5 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 19 19 W 5 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 18 18 W 5 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 18 18 W 5 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 19 19 W 5 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 21 21 W 5 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 24 24 W 5 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 27 27 W 5 14854 14593 2393 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 30 31 W 5 15188 14926 2726 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 32 33 W 5 15355 15092 2892 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 34 36 W 5 16259 15342 3142 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 35 37 W 5 16502 15515 3315 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 35 37 W 5 16502 15515 3315 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 34 35 W 6 15917 15259 3059 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 33 33 W 6 15355 15092 2892 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 31 31 W 6 15188 14926 2726 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 30 30 W 6 15104 14843 2643 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 28 28 W 6 14937 14676 2476 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 26 26 W 6 14771 13040 840 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 25 25 W 6 14687 12200 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 23 23 W 6 13200 12200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 22 22 W 6 11939 12200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 20 20 SW 5 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 19 19 SW 5 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 19 19 SW 5 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 18 18 SW 5 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 18 18 SW 5 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 19 19 SW 5 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 20 20 SW 6 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 22 22 SW 6 11939 12200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 24 24 SW 6 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 26 26 SW 6 14771 13040 840 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 28 28 SW 6 14937 14676 2476 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 30 31 SW 6 15188 14926 2726 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 32 33 W 7 15355 15092 2892 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 32 34 W 7 15571 15175 2975 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 32 33 W 7 15355 15092 2892 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 31 32 W 7 15271 15009 2809 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 30 30 W 7 15104 14843 2643 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 28 28 W 7 14937 14676 2476 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 26 26 SW 9 14771 13040 840 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 25 25 SW 9 14687 12200 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 24 24 SW 9 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 22 22 SW 9 11939 12200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 21 21 SW 9 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 20 20 SW 9 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 19 19 SW 7 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 18 18 SW 7 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 17 17 SW 7 10917 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 17 17 SW 7 10917 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 16 16 SW 7 10606 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 17 17 SW 7 10917 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 SW 8 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 19 19 SW 8 11477 12200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 21 21 SW 8 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 23 23 SW 8 13200 12200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 25 25 SW 8 14687 12200 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 27 28 SW 8 14937 14676 2476 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 28 29 W 5 15021 14759 2559 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 29 30 W 5 15104 14843 2643 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 29 30 W 5 15104 14843 2643 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 29 30 W 5 15104 14843 2643 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 28 28 W 5 14937 14676 2476 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 27 27 W 5 14854 14593 2393 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 26 26 NW 6 14771 13040 840 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 25 25 NW 6 14687 12200 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 24 24 NW 6 14604 12200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 22 22 NW 6 11939 12200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 21 21 NW 6 11792 12200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 20 20 NW 6 11645 12200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 18 18 S 6 11198 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 17 17 S 6 10917 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 16 16 S 6 10606 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 16 16 S 6 10606 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 15 S 6 10374 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 16 16 S 6 10606 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com