Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 33 33 NW 5 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 SW 6 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 S 6 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 S 6 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 49 S 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 51 S 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 SW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 46 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 W 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 W 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 W 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 13 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 W 14 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 W 15 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 W 15 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 W 15 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 W 15 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 W 15 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 W 14 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 W 13 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 NW 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 SW 6 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 SW 6 4983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 SW 6 5517 5616 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 54 55 S 7 5253 5616 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 53 54 SW 7 4983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 SW 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 SW 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 SW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 S 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 S 7 4640 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 55 S 8 5253 5616 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 54 55 S 8 5253 5616 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 53 53 S 8 4640 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 52 S 8 4295 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 S 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 S 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 W 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 14 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 W 15 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 W 13 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 SW 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 SW 12 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 SW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 36 SW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 39 SW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 42 SW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 44 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 46 46 SW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NW 10 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 N 9 4640 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 N 9 5517 5616 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 54 56 N 8 5517 5616 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 54 55 N 8 5253 5616 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 53 54 N 7 4983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 4295 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 51 N 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NW 9 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 4295 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 5253 5616 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 58 59 N 8 6303 5616 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 59 61 N 8 6821 6031 415 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 59 61 N 8 6821 6031 415 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 59 61 N 7 6821 6031 415 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 58 59 N 7 6303 5616 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 5517 5616 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 55 55 NE 7 5253 5616 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 4640 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 N 7 4295 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 N 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NW 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 N 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 N 8 3983 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com