Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 65 65 W 5 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 W 5 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 W 5 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 76 W 1 7440 5616 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 80 82 E 5 8445 7977 2361 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 82 86 SE 7 9481 8628 3012 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 84 90 E 9 10887 9731 4115 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 87 94 E 9 11967 11267 5651 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 89 97 SE 10 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 90 97 SE 12 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 92 98 SE 12 12604 12100 6484 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 91 95 SE 12 12141 11580 5964 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 90 92 S 10 11618 10316 4700 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 89 89 SW 14 10395 9436 3820 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 83 83 SW 14 8653 8084 2468 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 16 7440 5616 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 15 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 15 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 W 15 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 W 15 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 W 15 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 W 15 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 W 15 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 W 14 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 78 W 13 7880 6077 461 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 82 84 SW 12 8879 8213 2597 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 87 91 S 10 11366 10024 4408 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 89 95 SE 9 12141 11580 5964 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 90 97 S 10 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 92 100 S 12 14738 12428 6812 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 93 100 SW 14 14738 12428 6812 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 94 100 SW 16 14738 12428 6812 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 94 98 SW 17 12604 12100 6484 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 92 94 SW 18 11967 11267 5651 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 88 88 SW 18 10074 9139 3523 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 18 8445 7977 2361 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 17 7773 5616 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 16 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 W 16 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 15 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 W 14 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 NW 14 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 NW 13 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 NW 13 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 75 75 W 13 6097 5616 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 80 80 W 13 8096 7758 2142 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 84 86 SW 12 9481 8628 3012 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 88 90 SE 10 10887 9731 4115 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 90 94 E 10 11967 11267 5651 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 92 97 E 10 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 92 97 SE 12 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 93 97 SE 13 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 95 98 SE 13 12604 12100 6484 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 95 97 S 13 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 93 94 SW 13 11967 11267 5651 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 88 88 SW 14 10074 9139 3523 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 82 82 SW 14 8445 7977 2361 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 77 77 SW 15 7773 5616 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 74 74 SW 15 5614 5616 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 15 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 73 W 15 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 W 15 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 NW 14 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 71 NW 14 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 NW 14 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 NW 13 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 NW 13 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 NW 12 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 NW 12 7440 5616 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 81 81 NW 10 8236 7870 2254 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 85 87 W 10 9778 8839 3223 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 88 92 S 10 11618 10316 4700 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 91 96 SE 10 12314 11753 6137 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 93 99 SE 12 14073 12272 6656 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 94 102 SE 12 15971 13552 7936 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 95 102 SE 13 15971 13552 7936 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 96 102 SE 13 15971 13552 7936 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 96 99 SE 14 14073 12272 6656 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 94 96 SE 14 12314 11753 6137 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 90 90 S 14 10887 9731 4115 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 84 84 S 15 8879 8213 2597 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 79 79 SW 15 7988 7389 1773 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 76 76 SW 15 7440 5616 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 15 5614 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 15 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 15 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 15 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 W 15 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 W 14 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 W 14 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 W 13 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 W 12 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 W 12 7440 5616 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 81 81 W 10 8236 7870 2254 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 85 87 W 10 9778 8839 3223 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 88 92 S 9 11618 10316 4700 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 90 96 SE 10 12314 11753 6137 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 92 99 S 12 14073 12272 6656 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 93 100 S 14 14738 12428 6812 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 94 101 S 16 15369 12568 6952 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 95 101 S 17 15369 12568 6952 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 95 99 S 18 14073 12272 6656 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 92 94 S 20 11967 11267 5651 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 88 88 S 20 10074 9139 3523 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 20 8653 8084 2468 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 18 7880 6077 461 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 75 75 SW 17 6097 5616 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 17 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 16 4780 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 16 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 W 15 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 W 15 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 W 14 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 W 14 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 W 14 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 W 13 6097 5616 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 80 80 W 13 8096 7758 2142 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 83 85 SW 13 9181 8421 2805 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 87 91 S 13 11366 10024 4408 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 89 95 S 13 12141 11580 5964 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 91 98 S 14 12604 12100 6484 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 92 100 S 16 14738 12428 6812 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 93 100 S 17 14738 12428 6812 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 93 99 S 18 14073 12272 6656 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 93 97 S 20 12463 11927 6311 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 90 92 S 21 11618 10316 4700 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 21 9481 8628 3012 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 81 81 SW 21 8236 7870 2254 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 20 7440 5616 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 18 5120 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 18 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 17 4571 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 W 17 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 W 17 4361 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 W 17 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 W 16 4190 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 W 16 4190 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com