Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 59 59 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 66 67 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 73 76 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 77 82 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 80 86 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 84 91 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 92 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 90 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 87 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 82 84 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 66 67 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 73 76 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 76 81 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 78 84 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 80 87 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 81 88 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 82 88 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 83 88 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 83 86 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 80 81 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 76 76 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 55 55 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 54 54 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 54 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 60 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 66 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 70 72 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 77 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 78 81 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 80 84 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 82 86 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 82 85 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 82 85 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 81 83 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 78 79 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 74 74 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 61 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 60 60 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 57 57 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 56 56 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 64 65 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 69 71 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 73 77 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 76 82 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 78 85 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 80 87 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 80 86 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 79 83 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 75 76 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 53 53 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 56 56 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 59 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 63 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 65 66 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 68 70 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 69 71 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 70 72 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 70 72 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 70 72 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 70 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 46 46 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 46 46 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 57 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 60 62 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 64 68 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 67 73 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 70 77 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 71 78 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 71 78 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 70 73 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 68 70 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 52 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 51 51 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 49 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com