Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 25 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 N 25 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 N 25 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 25 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 N 26 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 N 28 6284 5616 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 65 68 N 28 10111 7977 2361 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 69 73 N 26 12348 11009 5393 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 70 74 N 25 13410 11439 5823 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 70 74 N 24 13410 11439 5823 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 69 72 N 23 11960 10571 4955 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 68 69 NE 22 10657 8344 2728 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 65 65 NE 21 8016 6844 1228 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 18 6489 5740 124 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 55 55 N 16 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 15 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 N 15 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 16 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 N 18 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 N 18 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 18 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 18 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 16 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 16 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 16 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 N 15 7258 6274 658 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 66 69 NE 14 10657 8344 2728 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 69 73 NE 13 12348 11009 5393 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 69 73 E 10 12348 11009 5393 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 68 72 E 9 11960 10571 4955 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 68 71 E 8 11534 9929 4313 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 67 68 SE 8 10111 7977 2361 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 65 65 SE 7 8016 6844 1228 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 61 61 S 5 6489 5740 124 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 2 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 W 0 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 0 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 NW 1 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 NW 3 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NW 6 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 N 8 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 N 8 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 N 8 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 NE 8 7640 6477 861 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 68 71 NE 8 11534 9929 4313 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 71 75 NE 8 13941 11860 6244 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 72 76 E 8 14365 12260 6644 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 72 76 E 8 14365 12260 6644 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 72 75 E 7 13941 11860 6244 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 71 72 E 6 11960 10571 4955 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 69 69 E 6 10657 8344 2728 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 65 65 E 6 8016 6844 1228 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 60 60 NE 7 6284 5616 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 55 55 N 8 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 N 9 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 N 9 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NW 10 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 13 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 13 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 N 14 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 14 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 N 14 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 14 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 N 15 5775 5616 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 63 64 N 15 7640 6477 861 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 67 69 NE 15 10657 8344 2728 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 71 74 NE 15 13410 11439 5823 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 73 77 NE 15 14779 13103 7487 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 75 79 NE 15 15585 14229 8613 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 75 79 NE 16 15585 14229 8613 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 74 77 NE 16 14779 13103 7487 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 73 74 NE 16 13410 11439 5823 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 71 71 NE 16 11534 9929 4313 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 69 69 NE 16 10657 8344 2728 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 66 66 NE 16 8388 7227 1611 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 63 63 N 16 7258 6274 658 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 60 60 N 16 6284 5616 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 58 58 N 16 5775 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 16 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 16 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 16 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 16 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 17 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 N 18 4871 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 N 18 6284 5616 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 63 64 N 18 7640 6477 861 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 18 10111 7977 2361 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 69 72 N 18 11960 10571 4955 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 70 74 NE 17 13410 11439 5823 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 71 75 NE 16 13941 11860 6244 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 71 74 NE 15 13410 11439 5823 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 70 72 NE 13 11960 10571 4955 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 69 70 NE 12 11100 8803 3187 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 68 68 NE 10 10111 7977 2361 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 66 66 NE 10 8388 7227 1611 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 63 63 NE 10 7258 6274 658 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 61 61 NE 10 6489 5740 124 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 10 5775 5616 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 12 4087 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 12 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 N 10 5775 5616 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 10 6489 5740 124 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 64 64 NE 9 7640 6477 861 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 66 67 NE 8 8970 7604 1988 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 68 70 E 8 11100 8803 3187 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 69 72 E 8 11960 10571 4955 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 70 73 E 8 12348 11009 5393 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 70 73 E 8 12348 11009 5393 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 69 71 E 8 11534 9929 4313 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 68 69 E 8 10657 8344 2728 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 67 67 E 8 8970 7604 1988 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 65 65 E 8 8016 6844 1228 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 64 64 NE 7 7640 6477 861 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 62 62 N 6 6871 6071 455 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 6 6284 5616 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 57 57 NW 5 4871 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 3244 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 5 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 6 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 6 2661 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 7 2661 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com