Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

22 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 24 24 W 21 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 23 W 22 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 23 23 W 24 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 W 25 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 28 28 W 26 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 34 W 26 5846 5616 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 39 41 W 28 8724 8381 2765 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 41 44 W 30 8993 8712 3096 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 43 46 W 31 9285 8890 3274 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 44 47 W 32 9462 8980 3364 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 45 47 W 32 9462 8980 3364 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 44 45 W 31 9107 8800 3184 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 37 37 W 29 7848 5819 203 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 33 33 W 25 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 W 22 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 W 20 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 W 18 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 W 18 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 W 20 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 W 21 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 W 22 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 W 23 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 W 23 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 NW 23 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 NW 22 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 NW 21 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 NW 18 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 NW 17 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 NW 16 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 32 N 15 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 38 N 15 8455 6507 891 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 38 41 N 15 8724 8381 2765 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 40 43 N 16 8903 8625 3009 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 41 44 N 17 8993 8712 3096 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 41 43 N 18 8903 8625 3009 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 40 41 N 18 8724 8381 2765 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 34 34 N 18 5846 5616 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 32 32 N 17 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 29 29 N 16 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 28 28 N 15 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 N 14 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 N 14 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 26 N 13 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 25 25 NW 12 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 NW 8 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 W 6 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 W 5 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 W 3 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 W 3 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 W 5 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 NW 6 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 NW 7 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 W 6 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 36 SW 5 7214 5616 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 43 45 SW 5 9107 8800 3184 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 45 48 SW 6 9638 9081 3465 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 48 52 W 7 11081 10276 4660 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 49 52 W 10 11081 10276 4660 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 50 52 W 14 11081 10276 4660 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 49 50 W 18 10559 9433 3817 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 42 42 W 22 8812 8539 2923 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 39 39 W 25 8550 7160 1544 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 36 36 NW 26 7214 5616 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 26 5846 5616 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 33 33 NW 22 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 NW 17 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 NW 13 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 NW 10 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 W 8 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 W 8 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 NW 7 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 NW 7 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 NW 7 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 NW 7 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 8 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 N 8 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 5846 5616 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 38 39 N 9 8550 7160 1544 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 43 45 N 9 9107 8800 3184 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 45 48 NE 9 9638 9081 3465 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 47 50 NE 9 10559 9433 3817 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 48 51 E 9 10796 9609 3993 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 48 50 SE 8 10559 9433 3817 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 47 48 SE 8 9638 9081 3465 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 41 41 S 8 8724 8381 2765 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 39 39 S 8 8550 7160 1544 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 36 36 S 8 7214 5616 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 35 35 SW 8 6549 5616 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 34 34 SW 8 5846 5616 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 8 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 8 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 W 8 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 W 8 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 W 8 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 10 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 SW 10 7214 5616 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 40 41 SW 10 8724 8381 2765 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 46 48 SW 12 9638 9081 3465 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 47 50 SW 13 10559 9433 3817 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 50 53 SW 15 11365 10512 4896 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 50 53 SW 16 11365 10512 4896 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 51 53 SW 17 11365 10512 4896 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 50 51 W 18 10796 9609 3993 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 43 43 W 20 8903 8625 3009 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 39 39 W 20 8550 7160 1544 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 36 36 W 18 7214 5616 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 35 35 W 18 6549 5616 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 33 33 W 17 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 W 16 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 W 15 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 W 14 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 W 14 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 W 13 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 12 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 W 12 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 W 12 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 W 12 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 NW 13 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 NW 13 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 NW 14 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 38 NW 14 8455 6507 891 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 41 43 NW 15 8903 8625 3009 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 42 44 NW 15 8993 8712 3096 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 44 46 NW 16 9285 8890 3274 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 45 47 NW 16 9462 8980 3364 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 45 47 NW 16 9462 8980 3364 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 45 46 NW 16 9285 8890 3274 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 39 39 NW 16 8550 7160 1544 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 37 37 NW 16 7848 5819 203 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 34 34 NW 16 5846 5616 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 33 33 NW 16 5099 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 NW 16 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 NW 15 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 NW 15 3898 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 NW 14 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 NW 13 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NW 13 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 NW 12 2910 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 NW 10 2910 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com