Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 18 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 18 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 18 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 N 18 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 N 18 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 61 63 N 18 8145 6905 1289 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 69 73 N 18 9779 8947 3331 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 71 76 N 17 10670 9729 4113 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 72 77 NE 15 10961 10027 4411 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 74 78 NE 13 11251 10321 4705 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 74 77 NE 12 10961 10027 4411 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 73 75 NE 10 10376 9446 3830 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 65 66 NE 9 8495 8132 2516 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 60 60 NE 9 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 9 5406 5616 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 54 54 N 10 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 N 13 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 15 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 17 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 18 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 20 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 20 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 21 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 22 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 22 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 21 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 20 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 20 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 N 21 8028 6171 555 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 63 66 N 22 8495 8132 2516 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 71 75 N 23 10376 9446 3830 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 73 78 N 23 11251 10321 4705 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 74 79 N 21 11539 10613 4997 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 76 81 NE 20 12108 11190 5574 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 76 80 NE 18 11824 10902 5286 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 75 77 NE 16 10961 10027 4411 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 67 68 NE 15 8729 8365 2749 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 62 62 NE 14 8028 6171 555 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 13 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 13 3942 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 N 13 3138 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 13 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 N 13 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 N 13 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 N 13 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 13 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 14 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 15 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 16 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 17 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 17 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 N 17 6207 5616 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 63 64 N 17 8262 7598 1982 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 65 68 N 17 8729 8365 2749 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 73 77 N 16 10961 10027 4411 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 75 80 N 15 11824 10902 5286 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 76 82 NE 13 12390 11475 5859 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 78 83 NE 12 12669 11758 6142 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 78 82 NE 10 12390 11475 5859 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 77 79 E 10 11539 10613 4997 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 68 69 E 10 8846 8481 2865 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 63 63 E 9 8145 6905 1289 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 61 61 NE 8 7662 5616 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 5406 5616 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 3942 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 9 3942 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NW 10 3138 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NW 10 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 N 12 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NW 12 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 12 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 N 12 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 N 10 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 9 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 65 66 NE 8 8495 8132 2516 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 67 70 NE 8 8963 8597 2981 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 75 79 NE 7 11539 10613 4997 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 77 82 E 7 12390 11475 5859 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 78 84 E 7 12947 12040 6424 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 80 85 E 7 13649 12319 6703 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 80 84 E 8 12947 12040 6424 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 79 81 SE 8 12108 11190 5574 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 70 71 SE 8 9219 8714 3098 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 65 65 SE 8 8378 8015 2399 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 62 62 S 8 8028 6171 555 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 59 59 SW 8 6207 5616 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 7 3942 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NW 7 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 7 3138 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 3138 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 N 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 NE 7 8028 6171 555 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 67 68 NE 7 8729 8365 2749 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 69 72 E 7 9488 8830 3214 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 77 81 E 7 12108 11190 5574 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 79 84 E 7 12947 12040 6424 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 80 86 SE 8 14596 12596 6980 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 83 88 SE 8 16040 13354 7738 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 83 87 SE 8 15554 12872 7256 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 82 84 SE 9 12947 12040 6424 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 72 73 SE 9 9779 8947 3331 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 67 67 S 9 8612 8248 2632 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 65 65 S 9 8378 8015 2399 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 9 7662 5616 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 6207 5616 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 58 58 NW 8 5406 5616 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NW 8 3942 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 NW 8 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NW 8 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NW 8 3942 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 NW 8 3138 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 NW 8 3138 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NW 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 8 2497 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 NE 7 8145 6905 1289 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 68 69 NE 7 8846 8481 2865 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 70 73 E 7 9779 8947 3331 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 78 82 E 7 12390 11475 5859 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 80 85 E 7 13649 12319 6703 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 81 87 E 7 15554 12872 7256 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 83 88 SE 7 16040 13354 7738 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 83 87 SE 8 15554 12872 7256 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 82 84 SE 8 12947 12040 6424 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 73 74 SE 8 10079 9180 3564 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 68 68 S 8 8729 8365 2749 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 65 65 S 8 8378 8015 2399 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 8028 6171 555 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 9 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 60 60 NW 9 6956 5616 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 6207 5616 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 9 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NW 9 5406 5616 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 9 5406 5616 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 9 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NW 9 3942 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com