Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

3 DEC 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 WNW 3 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 WNW 3 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 3 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 WNW 2 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 WNW 3 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 WNW 3 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NW 4 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NW 4 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NW 4 9 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 NW 4 10 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 N 4 4 9081 5952 336 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 65 NNE 2 3 12599 11324 5708 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 64 66 ESE 2 2 13082 11547 5931 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 65 66 SE 3 3 13082 11547 5931 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 66 67 SE 4 4 13269 11995 6379 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 66 66 SE 4 5 13082 11547 5931 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 65 65 SSE 5 6 12599 11324 5708 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 52 52 SSE 4 10 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 S 1 3 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 WNW 1 2 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 WNW 2 4 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 WNW 2 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 WNW 3 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 3 6 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 WNW 3 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 3 7 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 3 7 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 3 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 4 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 4 9 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NW 4 9 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NW 4 9 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 NW 4 10 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 NW 4 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 NNW 1 1 10796 8087 2471 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 62 64 E 1 1 12102 11100 5484 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 64 66 SE 2 2 13082 11547 5931 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 65 67 SE 2 2 13269 11995 6379 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 66 67 SE 3 3 13269 11995 6379 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 67 67 SSE 3 3 13269 11995 6379 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 66 66 SSE 3 3 13082 11547 5931 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 54 54 SSE 3 5 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 SW 1 2 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 WNW 2 5 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NW 5 10 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 WNW 5 12 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 6 12 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 6 14 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 6 14 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NW 5 11 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 5 11 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 NW 4 9 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 58 NNW 2 4 9081 5952 336 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 67 N 3 3 13269 11995 6379 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 68 70 NNE 2 3 14234 13236 7620 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 70 72 NE 2 3 15958 13496 7880 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 70 71 NE 2 2 15140 13366 7750 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 71 71 NNE 1 1 15140 13366 7750 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 71 71 NNE 1 1 15140 13366 7750 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 57 57 N 1 3 8165 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 NW 4 8 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 4 9 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 NW 5 11 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 6 13 5000 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 NW 6 12 5000 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com