Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 NW 9 2887 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 9 4142 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 N 8 6244 5616 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 68 69 N 8 7387 6739 1123 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 72 75 NE 8 7807 7590 1974 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 75 80 E 7 8408 7940 2324 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 78 84 E 7 9172 8576 2960 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 80 88 E 7 10592 9399 3783 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 82 90 SE 7 11586 10077 4461 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 83 91 SE 8 11993 10490 4874 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 83 89 S 9 11132 9740 4124 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 82 87 S 10 10135 9145 3529 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 80 83 S 10 8982 8386 2770 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 77 78 SW 10 8083 7800 2184 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 73 73 SW 9 7667 7451 1835 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 8 7457 7060 1444 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 8 7317 6571 955 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 66 66 NW 8 6750 6236 620 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 65 65 NW 8 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NW 8 6413 5616 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 63 63 NW 9 6244 5616 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 62 62 NW 9 6075 5616 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 9 5556 5616 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 9 4745 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 NW 9 5556 5616 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 65 65 NW 8 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 71 71 N 7 7527 7311 1695 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 77 79 N 6 8232 7870 2254 Blue 19
9 AM Wed 81 84 NE 6 9172 8576 2960 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 85 91 SE 6 11993 10490 4874 Blue 31
11 AM Wed 88 95 SE 7 12955 12177 6561 Blue 35
12 Noon Wed 91 100 SE 7 15512 13364 7748 Blue 40
1 PM Wed 93 102 SE 7 16841 14316 8700 Blue 42
2 PM Wed 94 102 SE 8 16841 14316 8700 Blue 42
3 PM Wed 94 101 S 12 16217 13598 7982 Blue 41
4 PM Wed 93 98 S 15 13666 12892 7276 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 90 93 S 17 12476 11494 5878 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 87 88 SW 16 10592 9399 3783 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 15 8791 8216 2600 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 13 8083 7800 2184 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 75 75 SW 13 7807 7590 1974 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 13 7597 7381 1765 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 13 7387 6739 1123 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 13 7317 6571 955 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 14 7317 6571 955 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 14 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 14 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 63 63 W 13 6244 5616 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 6413 5616 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 67 67 W 9 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 74 74 W 7 7737 7521 1905 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 80 81 W 6 8600 8067 2451 Blue 21
9 AM Thu 85 88 W 7 10592 9399 3783 Blue 28
10 AM Thu 89 94 S 8 12716 11905 6289 Blue 34
11 AM Thu 92 99 S 10 14618 13128 7512 Blue 39
12 Noon Thu 94 102 S 13 16841 14316 8700 Blue 42
1 PM Thu 96 104 S 15 17946 15976 10360 White 44
2 PM Thu 97 105 SW 17 18151 16598 10982 White 45
3 PM Thu 97 103 SW 20 17436 15212 9596 Blue 43
4 PM Thu 95 99 SW 22 14618 13128 7512 Blue 39
5 PM Thu 92 95 W 24 12955 12177 6561 Blue 35
6 PM Thu 87 88 W 26 10592 9399 3783 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 29 8791 8216 2600 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 77 77 W 30 7948 7730 2114 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 29 7667 7451 1835 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 28 7457 7060 1444 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 25 7317 6571 955 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 23 6750 6236 620 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 65 65 NW 22 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 64 64 NW 20 6413 5616 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 63 63 NW 18 6244 5616 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 62 62 NW 16 6075 5616 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 62 62 NW 15 6075 5616 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 13 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 70 70 W 12 7457 7060 1444 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 76 77 SW 9 7948 7730 2114 Blue 17
9 AM Fri 82 85 S 8 9451 8766 3150 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 88 93 SE 7 12476 11494 5878 Blue 33
11 AM Fri 93 100 SE 6 15512 13364 7748 Blue 40
12 Noon Fri 96 104 SE 6 17946 15976 10360 White 44
1 PM Fri 98 106 S 7 18356 17191 11575 White 46
2 PM Fri 98 105 S 8 18151 16598 10982 White 45
3 PM Fri 97 103 SW 10 17436 15212 9596 Blue 43
4 PM Fri 96 100 SW 12 15512 13364 7748 Blue 40
5 PM Fri 93 95 SW 13 12955 12177 6561 Blue 35
6 PM Fri 90 91 SW 14 11993 10490 4874 Blue 31
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 14 10135 9145 3529 Blue 27
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 15 8982 8386 2770 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 8232 7870 2254 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 15 7877 7660 2044 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 72 72 NW 15 7597 7381 1765 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 NW 15 7387 6739 1123 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 67 67 NW 15 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 66 66 NW 15 6750 6236 620 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 65 65 NW 15 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 66 66 NW 15 6750 6236 620 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 67 67 NW 14 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 70 70 N 13 7457 7060 1444 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 74 74 N 12 7737 7521 1905 Blue 14
8 AM Sat 79 80 NE 9 8408 7940 2324 Blue 20
9 AM Sat 83 86 E 8 9795 8956 3340 Blue 26
10 AM Sat 87 92 SE 7 12235 11024 5408 Blue 32
11 AM Sat 91 98 SE 7 13666 12892 7276 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 93 101 SE 7 16217 13598 7982 Blue 41
1 PM Sat 95 103 S 8 17436 15212 9596 Blue 43
2 PM Sat 95 103 S 9 17436 15212 9596 Blue 43
3 PM Sat 94 100 SW 12 15512 13364 7748 Blue 40
4 PM Sat 93 97 SW 13 13430 12655 7039 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 91 94 SW 14 12716 11905 6289 Blue 34
6 PM Sat 88 89 W 15 11132 9740 4124 Blue 29
7 PM Sat 85 85 W 15 9451 8766 3150 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 81 81 W 16 8600 8067 2451 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 78 78 W 16 8083 7800 2184 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 74 74 NW 17 7737 7521 1905 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 17 7527 7311 1695 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 NW 18 7387 6739 1123 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 67 67 NW 20 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 66 66 NW 20 6750 6236 620 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 66 66 N 21 6750 6236 620 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 67 67 N 21 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 69 69 N 21 7387 6739 1123 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 71 71 N 20 7527 7311 1695 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 75 75 N 17 7807 7590 1974 Blue 15
8 AM Sun 79 80 NE 15 8408 7940 2324 Blue 20
9 AM Sun 83 86 NE 13 9795 8956 3340 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 87 92 E 10 12235 11024 5408 Blue 32
11 AM Sun 90 97 E 9 13430 12655 7039 Blue 37
12 Noon Sun 92 100 E 9 15512 13364 7748 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 94 102 E 8 16841 14316 8700 Blue 42
2 PM Sun 94 102 SE 9 16841 14316 8700 Blue 42
3 PM Sun 93 99 SE 9 14618 13128 7512 Blue 39
4 PM Sun 92 97 SE 9 13430 12655 7039 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 90 93 S 10 12476 11494 5878 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 88 89 S 10 11132 9740 4124 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 84 84 S 12 9172 8576 2960 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 81 81 SW 12 8600 8067 2451 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 13 7948 7730 2114 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 7737 7521 1905 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 70 70 W 13 7457 7060 1444 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 13 7090 6404 788 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 12 6581 6067 451 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 10 6244 5616 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 9 6075 5616 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 9 6075 5616 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com