Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 12 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 NW 10 3797 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 N 9 6345 6018 402 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 60 62 NE 8 7075 6341 725 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 63 66 E 8 8118 7317 1701 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 64 68 E 9 8898 7836 2220 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 65 69 S 10 9444 8092 2476 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 66 70 S 13 9974 8325 2709 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 66 69 S 15 9444 8092 2476 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 65 66 SW 16 8118 7317 1701 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 61 61 SW 17 6810 6262 646 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 55 55 SW 16 5843 5616 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 15 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NW 12 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 N 10 6544 6183 567 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 62 64 NE 9 7601 6792 1176 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 64 67 E 8 8353 7577 1961 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 66 70 SE 9 9974 8325 2709 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 67 71 S 10 10344 8823 3207 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 68 71 SW 13 10344 8823 3207 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 68 70 SW 15 9974 8325 2709 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 66 67 W 16 8353 7577 1961 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 17 7339 6528 912 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 17 6266 5836 220 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 52 52 W 17 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 17 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 16 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 16 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 15 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 15 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 14 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 12 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 NE 12 6026 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 59 61 E 10 6810 6262 646 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 62 65 E 10 7862 7055 1439 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 64 68 E 10 8898 7836 2220 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 65 69 E 10 9444 8092 2476 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 66 69 SE 10 9444 8092 2476 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 66 68 SE 10 8898 7836 2220 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 66 67 SE 10 8353 7577 1961 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 64 64 SE 10 7601 6792 1176 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 59 59 S 10 6345 6018 402 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 10 5660 5616 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 10 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 12 3797 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NW 12 3797 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NW 13 3797 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NW 13 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NW 12 3797 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 12 3797 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NW 13 3602 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NW 13 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 12 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 12 6026 5616 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 12 6810 6262 646 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 64 66 NE 10 8118 7317 1701 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 67 70 NE 10 9974 8325 2709 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 69 73 NE 10 10983 9885 4269 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 70 74 E 10 11070 10285 4669 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 71 75 E 10 11157 10605 4989 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 71 73 E 10 10983 9885 4269 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 71 72 E 10 10667 9362 3746 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 68 68 SE 10 8898 7836 2220 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 64 64 E 10 7601 6792 1176 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 10 6266 5836 220 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 10 5660 5616 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 12 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 12 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 13 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 13 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 13 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 13 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 13 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NW 13 4363 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 13 5660 5616 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 58 58 N 12 6266 5836 220 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 63 64 N 10 7601 6792 1176 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 68 70 NE 9 9974 8325 2709 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 72 75 NE 8 11157 10605 4989 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 74 78 E 8 11419 11139 5523 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 75 79 SE 9 11507 11226 5610 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 75 79 SE 10 11507 11226 5610 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 75 78 SE 10 11419 11139 5523 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 74 75 SE 10 11157 10605 4989 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 72 72 SE 10 10667 9362 3746 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 66 66 S 10 8118 7317 1701 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 6544 6183 567 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 55 55 W 10 5843 5616 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 10 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 10 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 53 53 NW 10 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 10 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 51 51 N 10 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 N 10 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 10 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 10 4914 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 10 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 10 5843 5616 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 6266 5836 220 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 63 64 N 9 7601 6792 1176 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 68 70 N 8 9974 8325 2709 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 72 75 N 8 11157 10605 4989 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 75 79 NE 8 11507 11226 5610 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 76 80 NE 9 11594 11313 5697 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 76 80 E 10 11594 11313 5697 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 76 79 E 10 11507 11226 5610 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 75 76 SE 12 11245 10922 5306 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 72 72 S 12 10667 9362 3746 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 67 67 SE 12 8353 7577 1961 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 60 60 NE 12 6544 6183 567 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 55 55 N 12 5843 5616 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 12 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 52 52 N 13 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 52 52 N 13 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 N 14 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 53 53 N 14 5478 5616 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 15 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 52 52 N 15 5369 5616 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 15 4914 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com