Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 66 66 NW 14 4219 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NW 13 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 NW 9 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 77 79 N 9 8399 6664 1048 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 81 84 NE 7 10993 9112 3496 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 83 89 E 8 14077 12160 6544 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 86 93 SE 8 15510 14449 8833 White 26
12 Noon Sat 88 97 SE 10 16334 16334 10718 White 30
1 PM Sat 90 99 S 12 16737 16737 11121 White 32
2 PM Sat 90 98 S 12 16536 16536 10920 White 31
3 PM Sat 91 98 SW 17 16536 16536 10920 White 31
4 PM Sat 89 94 SW 22 15719 14972 9356 White 27
5 PM Sat 87 90 SW 20 14622 12766 7150 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 84 85 W 23 11669 9483 3867 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 24 8785 6956 1340 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 21 6196 5782 166 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 24 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 23 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 66 66 W 20 4219 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 22 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 18 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 NW 14 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 W 13 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 W 14 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 NW 12 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NW 10 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 NW 7 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 76 77 N 7 7090 6325 709 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 79 81 NE 6 9165 7968 2352 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 82 86 E 8 12312 10045 4429 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 84 89 SE 7 14077 12160 6544 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 86 92 SE 7 15301 13909 8293 White 25
1 PM Sun 87 94 S 9 15719 14972 9356 White 27
2 PM Sun 88 94 S 12 15719 14972 9356 White 27
3 PM Sun 88 93 SW 15 15510 14449 8833 White 26
4 PM Sun 88 92 SW 17 15301 13909 8293 White 25
5 PM Sun 85 87 SW 20 12925 10855 5239 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 82 83 W 20 10275 8736 3120 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 20 7090 6325 709 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 18 6059 5646 30 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 18 5786 5616 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 68 68 NW 20 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 67 67 NW 20 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 NW 20 4219 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 18 4219 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 17 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 16 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 N 15 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 N 14 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 N 14 4219 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 N 14 5923 5616 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 76 78 NE 14 8008 6461 845 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 79 82 NE 13 9540 8354 2738 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 82 86 E 12 12312 10045 4429 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 84 89 E 12 14077 12160 6544 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 85 91 E 13 15092 13349 7733 White 24
1 PM Mon 86 93 SE 14 15510 14449 8833 White 26
2 PM Mon 87 94 SE 14 15719 14972 9356 White 27
3 PM Mon 87 92 SE 12 15301 13909 8293 White 25
4 PM Mon 86 89 SE 9 14077 12160 6544 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 85 87 S 7 12925 10855 5239 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 82 83 S 6 10275 8736 3120 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 78 78 S 6 8008 6461 845 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 75 75 SW 6 6468 6053 437 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 7 6059 5646 30 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 70 70 NW 9 5786 5616 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 69 69 NW 12 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NW 13 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 68 68 NW 14 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 67 67 NW 15 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NW 15 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NW 15 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NW 15 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 N 15 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 74 74 N 15 6332 5918 302 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 79 80 N 15 8785 6956 1340 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 83 86 NE 13 12312 10045 4429 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 86 91 E 12 15092 13349 7733 White 24
11 AM Tue 88 95 E 9 15927 15479 9863 White 28
12 Noon Tue 89 97 E 9 16334 16334 10718 White 30
1 PM Tue 90 98 SE 9 16536 16536 10920 White 31
2 PM Tue 90 97 SE 9 16334 16334 10718 White 30
3 PM Tue 90 96 SE 7 16132 16132 10516 White 29
4 PM Tue 89 93 SW 6 15510 14449 8833 White 26
5 PM Tue 87 89 SW 3 14077 12160 6544 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 84 85 W 2 11669 9483 3867 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 80 80 W 2 8785 6956 1340 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 3 7090 6325 709 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 6332 5918 302 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 10 6059 5646 30 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 14 5923 5616 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 15 5786 5616 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 14 5786 5616 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 14 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 67 67 W 14 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 14 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 14 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NW 13 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 74 74 NW 12 6332 5918 302 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 80 82 NW 9 9540 8354 2738 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 84 87 W 6 12925 10855 5239 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 87 93 S 3 15510 14449 8833 White 26
11 AM Wed 90 97 SE 1 16334 16334 10718 White 30
12 Noon Wed 91 100 SE 2 16938 16938 11322 White 33
1 PM Wed 92 101 S 5 17138 17138 11522 White 34
2 PM Wed 93 101 S 7 17138 17138 11522 White 34
3 PM Wed 93 100 S 9 16938 16938 11322 White 33
4 PM Wed 92 97 SW 13 16334 16334 10718 White 30
5 PM Wed 90 93 SW 15 15510 14449 8833 White 26
6 PM Wed 86 87 W 18 12925 10855 5239 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 21 9540 8354 2738 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 23 8399 6664 1048 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 23 6678 6189 573 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 73 73 W 22 6196 5782 166 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 21 6059 5646 30 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 20 5923 5616 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 17 5786 5616 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 16 5650 5616 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 16 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 16 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 W 15 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NW 13 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 72 72 NW 10 6059 5646 30 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 77 79 NW 8 8399 6664 1048 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 81 84 W 7 10993 9112 3496 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 84 90 SW 8 14622 12766 7150 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 86 93 S 9 15510 14449 8833 White 26
12 Noon Thu 88 97 S 12 16334 16334 10718 White 30
1 PM Thu 89 98 SW 15 16536 16536 10920 White 31
2 PM Thu 90 98 SW 18 16536 16536 10920 White 31
3 PM Thu 90 97 SW 21 16334 16334 10718 White 30
4 PM Thu 90 95 W 23 15927 15479 9863 White 28
5 PM Thu 88 91 W 25 15092 13349 7733 White 24
6 PM Thu 84 85 W 28 11669 9483 3867 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 29 8399 6664 1048 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 30 6468 6053 437 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 29 6059 5646 30 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 28 5786 5616 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 25 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 W 24 5513 5616 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 67 67 W 22 4697 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 21 4219 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 20 3970 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 20 3970 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com