Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 40 40 NW 14 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NW 15 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 15 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NW 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 W 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 W 6 5532 5616 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 61 62 W 6 6310 5616 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 62 63 W 7 6609 5616 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 63 64 SW 8 6905 5997 381 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 63 64 W 8 6905 5997 381 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 62 62 W 7 6310 5616 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 NW 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NW 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NW 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 N 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 N 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 5 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 5 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 5 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 NE 3 3710 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 64 E 3 6905 5997 381 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 66 68 E 3 8071 7177 1561 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 67 69 E 5 8358 7467 1851 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 68 70 SE 5 8643 7755 2139 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 68 69 SE 5 8358 7467 1851 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 67 67 S 3 7783 6885 1269 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 55 55 S 3 3285 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 S 3 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 3 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 W 5 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NW 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 NW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 NW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NW 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 E 6 5532 5616 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 68 70 SE 6 8643 7755 2139 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 71 73 SE 6 9487 8607 2991 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 72 74 SE 7 9765 8888 3272 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 73 75 SE 7 10041 9167 3551 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 73 74 SE 7 9765 8888 3272 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 71 71 SE 6 8926 8041 2425 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 57 57 S 6 4129 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 S 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 SW 6 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 W 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 10 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 10 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NW 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 W 8 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 W 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 SW 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 SW 6 6010 5616 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 68 69 SW 6 8358 7467 1851 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 72 74 SW 6 9765 8888 3272 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 73 75 SW 7 10041 9167 3551 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 74 76 SW 8 10317 9444 3828 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 74 75 SW 9 10041 9167 3551 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 72 72 W 10 9207 8325 2709 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 4129 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 W 13 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 W 14 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 W 14 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 15 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 W 15 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 W 7 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 W 6 4541 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 W 5 7200 6295 679 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 67 69 W 5 8358 7467 1851 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 68 70 W 5 8643 7755 2139 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 69 70 W 6 8643 7755 2139 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 69 70 SW 6 8643 7755 2139 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 8071 7177 1561 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 56 56 SW 8 3710 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 53 SW 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 SW 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 10 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 10 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 12 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 W 10 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 W 10 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 SW 9 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 SW 9 4541 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 64 SW 9 6905 5997 381 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 65 67 SW 10 7783 6885 1269 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 66 68 SW 12 8071 7177 1561 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 67 68 SW 13 8071 7177 1561 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 67 68 SW 14 8071 7177 1561 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 66 66 SW 15 7492 6591 975 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 55 55 W 16 3285 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 16 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 17 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 17 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 17 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 17 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 17 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 W 17 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 18 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 18 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 20 3094 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 20 3094 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com