Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 70 70 NW 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 NW 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 N 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 79 80 N 9 7793 5616 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 82 84 N 9 11204 8957 3341 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 86 90 NE 8 13900 12854 7238 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 89 95 E 8 15609 14526 8910 White 16
12 Noon Sat 91 98 E 8 16225 15596 9980 White 19
1 PM Sat 93 101 SE 9 16838 16626 11010 White 22
2 PM Sat 93 100 SE 9 16634 16287 10671 White 21
3 PM Sat 93 99 S 9 16430 15944 10328 White 20
4 PM Sat 92 96 S 10 15815 14888 9272 White 17
5 PM Sat 90 92 SW 10 14645 13410 7794 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 87 88 SW 12 13144 11692 6076 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 84 84 W 12 11204 8957 3341 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 13 7793 5616 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 78 78 W 14 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 76 76 W 14 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 75 NW 14 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 NW 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 NW 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 NW 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 NW 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 NW 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 NW 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 NW 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 NW 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 80 81 N 6 9120 5616 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 84 86 N 6 12428 10422 4806 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 87 91 E 7 14275 13084 7468 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 90 96 E 8 15815 14888 9272 White 17
12 Noon Sun 92 99 SE 9 16430 15944 10328 White 20
1 PM Sun 93 101 SE 10 16838 16626 11010 White 22
2 PM Sun 94 101 S 12 16838 16626 11010 White 22
3 PM Sun 94 100 S 13 16634 16287 10671 White 21
4 PM Sun 94 98 SW 14 16225 15596 9980 White 19
5 PM Sun 92 94 SW 14 15369 14160 8544 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 88 89 SW 14 13519 12284 6668 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 13 10514 7655 2039 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 W 12 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 W 12 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 W 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 W 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 77 W 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 82 84 W 9 11204 8957 3341 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 87 91 SW 9 14275 13084 7468 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 91 96 S 10 15815 14888 9272 White 17
12 Noon Mon 93 100 S 12 16634 16287 10671 White 21
1 PM Mon 94 101 SW 13 16838 16626 11010 White 22
2 PM Mon 94 101 SW 14 16838 16626 11010 White 22
3 PM Mon 94 99 SW 16 16430 15944 10328 White 20
4 PM Mon 93 97 SW 17 16020 15244 9628 White 18
5 PM Mon 91 93 SW 18 15009 13788 8172 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 87 87 SW 17 12921 11069 5453 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 82 82 W 16 9998 5952 336 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 77 77 W 15 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 74 W 14 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 72 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 W 13 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 W 12 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 SW 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 76 SW 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 82 S 8 9998 5952 336 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 84 87 S 7 12921 11069 5453 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 87 92 S 7 14645 13410 7794 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 90 96 S 8 15815 14888 9272 White 17
1 PM Tue 91 97 S 9 16020 15244 9628 White 18
2 PM Tue 92 98 S 12 16225 15596 9980 White 19
3 PM Tue 92 97 S 14 16020 15244 9628 White 18
4 PM Tue 91 94 S 15 15369 14160 8544 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 90 92 S 16 14645 13410 7794 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 87 87 SW 16 12921 11069 5453 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 15 11829 9912 4296 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 13 9998 5952 336 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 12 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 8 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 W 6 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 W 6 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 5 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 W 5 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 W 5 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 W 5 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 W 5 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 SW 5 6036 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 84 S 6 11204 8957 3341 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 86 90 S 6 13900 12854 7238 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 89 94 S 7 15369 14160 8544 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 91 97 S 8 16020 15244 9628 White 18
1 PM Wed 92 99 S 10 16430 15944 10328 White 20
2 PM Wed 93 99 S 13 16430 15944 10328 White 20
3 PM Wed 93 98 S 14 16225 15596 9980 White 19
4 PM Wed 92 96 SW 15 15815 14888 9272 White 17
5 PM Wed 91 93 SW 16 15009 13788 8172 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 89 89 SW 16 13519 12284 6668 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 86 86 SW 15 12428 10422 4806 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 14 10514 7655 2039 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 12 7793 5616 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 8 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 8 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 W 8 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 W 6 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 79 SW 6 6036 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 83 85 SW 6 11829 9912 4296 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 86 90 S 6 13900 12854 7238 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 89 94 S 7 15369 14160 8544 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 91 98 S 8 16225 15596 9980 White 19
1 PM Thu 93 100 S 10 16634 16287 10671 White 21
2 PM Thu 93 100 S 13 16634 16287 10671 White 21
3 PM Thu 93 98 SW 15 16225 15596 9980 White 19
4 PM Thu 92 96 SW 16 15815 14888 9272 White 17
5 PM Thu 90 92 SW 17 14645 13410 7794 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 87 87 SW 17 12921 11069 5453 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 85 85 SW 16 11829 9912 4296 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 15 9120 5616 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 14 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 75 W 12 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 W 10 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 9 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 W 8 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 4678 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 W 6 4678 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com