Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 54 54 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 66 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 71 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 72 76 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 75 80 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 77 83 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 85 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 79 85 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 78 82 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 76 79 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 73 74 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 69 69 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 61 61 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 59 59 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 54 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 57 58 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 61 64 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 64 68 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 67 73 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 69 76 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 77 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 77 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 69 74 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 67 70 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 64 66 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 44 44 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 44 44 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 51 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 56 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 63 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 72 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 73 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 73 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 71 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 68 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 63 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 65 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 71 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 74 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 76 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 70 76 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 75 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 71 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 67 68 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 55 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 60 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 64 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 64 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 66 71 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 72 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 72 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 70 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 67 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 64 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 43 43 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 45 45 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 50 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 53 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 56 57 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 62 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 62 66 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 68 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 69 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 65 69 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 65 68 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 64 66 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 63 64 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 44 44 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 44 44 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com