Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 28 28 W 38 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 W 37 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 NW 36 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 NW 35 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 NW 33 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 33 W 31 5482 5616 0 White 3
10 AM Sat 36 38 W 33 6583 6583 967 White 8
11 AM Sat 37 39 W 37 6800 6800 1184 White 9
12 Noon Sat 37 39 W 35 6800 6800 1184 White 9
1 PM Sat 38 40 W 33 7018 7018 1402 White 10
2 PM Sat 38 40 W 32 7018 7018 1402 White 10
3 PM Sat 36 37 W 32 6364 6364 748 White 7
4 PM Sat 32 32 W 32 5261 5616 0 White 2
5 PM Sat 29 29 W 32 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 W 32 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 W 31 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 W 31 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 25 25 W 30 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 25 25 W 33 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 25 25 W 33 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 25 W 32 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 W 32 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 NW 32 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 23 W 30 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 23 W 30 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 24 W 29 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 24 W 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 W 23 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 W 22 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 W 22 5038 5616 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 33 34 W 22 5705 5616 0 White 4
11 AM Sun 34 35 W 14 5926 5616 0 White 5
12 Noon Sun 35 36 W 15 6146 5804 188 White 6
1 PM Sun 35 36 W 26 6146 5804 188 White 6
2 PM Sun 34 35 W 15 5926 5616 0 White 5
3 PM Sun 32 32 NW 16 5261 5616 0 White 2
4 PM Sun 29 29 W 24 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 28 28 NW 20 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 25 25 NW 18 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 24 24 NW 24 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 24 24 NW 24 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 NW 18 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 NW 25 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 NW 25 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 24 24 NW 18 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 NW 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 NW 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 22 22 NW 20 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 21 21 NW 28 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 21 21 N 28 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 N 30 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 30 N 30 4762 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 35 N 22 5926 5616 0 White 5
11 AM Mon 34 36 N 29 6146 5804 188 White 6
12 Noon Mon 35 38 N 28 6583 6583 967 White 8
1 PM Mon 35 38 N 18 6583 6583 967 White 8
2 PM Mon 34 36 N 23 6146 5804 188 White 6
3 PM Mon 33 34 N 20 5705 5616 0 White 4
4 PM Mon 31 31 N 17 5038 5616 0 White 1
5 PM Mon 29 29 N 18 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 27 27 N 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 25 25 NW 15 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 25 25 N 23 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 24 24 N 24 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 NW 18 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 24 24 N 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 24 24 N 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 23 23 NW 18 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 N 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 22 22 N 26 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 23 23 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 22 22 N 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 N 20 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 N 20 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 27 27 N 20 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 32 N 18 5261 5616 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 34 36 N 17 6146 5804 188 White 6
11 AM Tue 36 39 N 16 6800 6800 1184 White 9
12 Noon Tue 36 39 N 14 6800 6800 1184 White 9
1 PM Tue 35 37 N 13 6364 6364 748 White 7
2 PM Tue 34 36 N 12 6146 5804 188 White 6
3 PM Tue 33 34 N 12 5705 5616 0 White 4
4 PM Tue 31 31 N 12 5038 5616 0 White 1
5 PM Tue 29 29 N 13 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 26 26 N 15 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 24 24 NW 16 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 22 22 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 22 22 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 NW 16 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 21 21 NW 16 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 21 21 NW 16 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 21 21 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 20 20 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 20 20 NW 16 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 21 21 NW 16 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 NW 15 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 27 NW 15 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 31 31 W 16 5038 5616 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 35 36 SW 16 6146 5804 188 White 6
11 AM Wed 37 38 SW 14 6583 6583 967 White 8
12 Noon Wed 38 40 W 12 7018 7018 1402 White 10
1 PM Wed 38 39 W 10 6800 6800 1184 White 9
2 PM Wed 37 38 W 12 6583 6583 967 White 8
3 PM Wed 36 36 SW 13 6146 5804 188 White 6
4 PM Wed 34 34 SW 15 5705 5616 0 White 4
5 PM Wed 33 33 SW 17 5482 5616 0 White 3
6 PM Wed 31 31 W 18 5038 5616 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 30 30 W 21 4762 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 W 23 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 W 24 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 W 25 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 W 25 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 W 24 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 W 23 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 W 22 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 W 22 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 W 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 W 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 W 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 27 W 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 W 20 4762 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 W 17 5482 5616 0 White 3
10 AM Thu 36 37 W 16 6364 6364 748 White 7
11 AM Thu 37 38 W 16 6583 6583 967 White 8
12 Noon Thu 37 38 W 16 6583 6583 967 White 8
1 PM Thu 36 37 W 16 6364 6364 748 White 7
2 PM Thu 35 36 W 16 6146 5804 188 White 6
3 PM Thu 33 33 W 15 5482 5616 0 White 3
4 PM Thu 31 31 W 15 5038 5616 0 White 1
5 PM Thu 30 30 W 15 4762 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 W 16 4197 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 NW 17 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 NW 18 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 NW 20 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 NW 21 4186 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 NW 22 4186 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com