Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 61 NW 12 6136 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 63 63 NW 12 6475 5886 53 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 66 66 NW 12 7243 6467 634 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 69 71 NE 10 7625 7408 1575 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 72 75 NE 10 7906 7689 1856 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 75 80 NE 10 8681 8130 2297 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 77 84 E 8 9602 8849 3016 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 78 86 E 8 10286 9229 3396 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 80 88 E 8 11356 9892 4059 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 82 90 SE 8 12105 10737 4904 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 84 90 SE 8 12105 10737 4904 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 86 90 SE 8 12105 10737 4904 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 86 89 W 10 11777 10229 4396 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 85 86 W 10 10286 9229 3396 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 10 9064 8467 2634 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 24 8296 7899 2066 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 24 7906 7689 1856 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 24 7765 7549 1716 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 20 7625 7408 1575 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 20 7484 7214 1381 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 69 69 W 20 7484 7214 1381 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 67 67 NW 13 7344 6636 803 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 66 66 NW 13 7243 6467 634 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 65 65 NW 13 6840 6299 466 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 65 65 NW 10 6840 6299 466 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 68 68 NW 10 7414 6816 983 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 72 72 NW 10 7695 7479 1646 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 76 78 NW 10 8296 7899 2066 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 79 82 NW 10 9064 8467 2634 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 82 88 NW 10 11356 9892 4059 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 85 92 SE 7 12589 11687 5854 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 88 97 SE 7 14122 13007 7174 Blue 37
1 PM Wed 91 100 SE 7 16537 13824 7991 Blue 40
2 PM Wed 93 101 SE 7 17149 14778 8945 Blue 41
3 PM Wed 96 103 SE 7 18114 16299 10466 White 42
4 PM Wed 98 103 SE 7 18114 16299 10466 White 42
5 PM Wed 98 101 SW 8 17149 14778 8945 Blue 41
6 PM Wed 96 97 SW 8 14122 13007 7174 Blue 37
7 PM Wed 92 92 SW 8 12589 11687 5854 Blue 32
8 PM Wed 86 86 SW 8 10286 9229 3396 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 8 8681 8130 2297 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 74 74 SW 8 7836 7619 1786 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 13 7554 7338 1505 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 W 13 7344 6636 803 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 13 7243 6467 634 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 63 63 W 13 6475 5886 53 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 60 60 W 13 5915 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 13 4921 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 9 4921 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 9 6306 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 68 68 W 9 7414 6816 983 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 75 76 W 9 7996 7759 1926 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 80 83 W 9 9255 8658 2825 Blue 23
10 AM Thu 85 90 W 9 12105 10737 4904 Blue 30
11 AM Thu 89 96 SW 8 13545 12769 6936 Blue 36
12 Noon Thu 93 101 SW 8 17149 14778 8945 Blue 41
1 PM Thu 97 105 SW 8 18526 17491 11658 White 44
2 PM Thu 100 108 SW 8 19141 19141 13308 White 47
3 PM Thu 100 106 SW 8 18731 18731 12898 White 45
4 PM Thu 99 104 SW 8 18320 16909 11076 White 43
5 PM Thu 96 99 SW 20 15894 13479 7646 Blue 39
6 PM Thu 93 94 SW 20 13069 12291 6458 Blue 34
7 PM Thu 89 89 SW 20 11777 10229 4396 Blue 29
8 PM Thu 85 85 SW 20 9946 9039 3206 Blue 25
9 PM Thu 82 82 SW 20 9064 8467 2634 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 79 79 SW 20 8489 7981 2148 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 77 77 W 12 8145 7829 1996 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 12 7906 7689 1856 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 12 7836 7619 1786 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 73 73 W 12 7765 7549 1716 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 12 7695 7479 1646 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 71 71 W 12 7625 7408 1575 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 71 71 W 13 7625 7408 1575 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 72 72 W 13 7695 7479 1646 Blue 12
7 AM Fri 74 74 W 13 7836 7619 1786 Blue 14
8 AM Fri 77 78 W 13 8296 7899 2066 Blue 18
9 AM Fri 81 84 W 13 9602 8849 3016 Blue 24
10 AM Fri 85 90 W 13 12105 10737 4904 Blue 30
11 AM Fri 88 95 SW 12 13307 12530 6697 Blue 35
12 Noon Fri 91 99 SW 12 15894 13479 7646 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 94 102 SW 12 17733 15636 9803 Blue 42
2 PM Fri 95 103 SW 12 18114 16299 10466 White 42
3 PM Fri 97 103 SW 12 18114 16299 10466 White 42
4 PM Fri 97 102 SW 12 17733 15636 9803 Blue 42
5 PM Fri 97 100 W 13 16537 13824 7991 Blue 40
6 PM Fri 95 96 W 13 13545 12769 6936 Blue 36
7 PM Fri 94 94 W 13 13069 12291 6458 Blue 34
8 PM Fri 91 91 W 13 12348 11266 5433 Blue 31
9 PM Fri 89 89 W 13 11777 10229 4396 Blue 29
10 PM Fri 86 86 W 13 10286 9229 3396 Blue 26
11 PM Fri 83 83 W 10 9255 8658 2825 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 W 10 8681 8130 2297 Blue 20
1 AM Sat 78 78 W 10 8296 7899 2066 Blue 18
2 AM Sat 76 76 W 10 7996 7759 1926 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 75 75 W 10 7906 7689 1856 Blue 15
4 AM Sat 74 74 W 10 7836 7619 1786 Blue 14
5 AM Sat 74 74 NW 9 7836 7619 1786 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 76 76 NW 9 7996 7759 1926 Blue 16
7 AM Sat 78 78 NW 9 8296 7899 2066 Blue 18
8 AM Sat 81 82 NW 9 9064 8467 2634 Blue 22
9 AM Sat 85 88 NW 9 11356 9892 4059 Blue 28
10 AM Sat 88 93 NW 9 12830 12050 6217 Blue 33
11 AM Sat 91 98 E 6 15073 13243 7410 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 94 102 E 6 17733 15636 9803 Blue 42
1 PM Sat 96 105 E 6 18526 17491 11658 White 44
2 PM Sat 97 105 E 6 18526 17491 11658 White 44
3 PM Sat 98 105 E 6 18526 17491 11658 White 44
4 PM Sat 98 103 E 6 18114 16299 10466 White 42
5 PM Sat 97 100 SW 9 16537 13824 7991 Blue 40
6 PM Sat 96 97 SW 9 14122 13007 7174 Blue 37
7 PM Sat 94 94 SW 9 13069 12291 6458 Blue 34
8 PM Sat 91 91 SW 9 12348 11266 5433 Blue 31
9 PM Sat 89 89 SW 9 11777 10229 4396 Blue 29
10 PM Sat 86 86 SW 9 10286 9229 3396 Blue 26
11 PM Sat 83 83 W 8 9255 8658 2825 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 W 8 8873 8279 2446 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 79 79 W 8 8489 7981 2148 Blue 19
2 AM Sun 77 77 W 8 8145 7829 1996 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 76 76 W 8 7996 7759 1926 Blue 16
4 AM Sun 76 76 W 8 7996 7759 1926 Blue 16
5 AM Sun 76 76 N 9 7996 7759 1926 Blue 16
6 AM Sun 77 77 N 9 8145 7829 1996 Blue 17
7 AM Sun 78 78 N 9 8296 7899 2066 Blue 18
8 AM Sun 80 81 N 9 8873 8279 2446 Blue 21
9 AM Sun 83 86 N 9 10286 9229 3396 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 85 90 N 9 12105 10737 4904 Blue 30
11 AM Sun 88 94 E 7 13069 12291 6458 Blue 34
12 Noon Sun 91 98 E 7 15073 13243 7410 Blue 38
1 PM Sun 94 102 E 7 17733 15636 9803 Blue 42
2 PM Sun 96 103 E 7 18114 16299 10466 White 42
3 PM Sun 98 104 E 7 18320 16909 11076 White 43
4 PM Sun 99 103 E 7 18114 16299 10466 White 42
5 PM Sun 99 101 S 13 17149 14778 8945 Blue 41
6 PM Sun 98 99 S 13 15894 13479 7646 Blue 39
7 PM Sun 97 97 S 13 14122 13007 7174 Blue 37
8 PM Sun 94 94 S 13 13069 12291 6458 Blue 34
9 PM Sun 91 91 S 13 12348 11266 5433 Blue 31
10 PM Sun 88 88 S 13 11356 9892 4059 Blue 28
11 PM Sun 85 85 W 8 9946 9039 3206 Blue 25
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 W 8 9064 8467 2634 Blue 22
1 AM Mon 79 79 W 8 8489 7981 2148 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 77 77 W 8 8145 7829 1996 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 75 75 W 8 7906 7689 1856 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 74 74 W 8 7836 7619 1786 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com