Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 74 74 NW 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 NW 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 NW 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 78 79 N 6 8369 5833 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 81 83 N 6 11476 9441 3608 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 84 88 N 6 13692 12542 6709 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 87 93 E 5 15536 14332 8499 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 89 96 E 5 16321 15414 9581 White 19
1 PM Sat 90 98 E 5 16732 16111 10278 White 21
2 PM Sat 91 98 SW 6 16732 16111 10278 White 21
3 PM Sat 92 98 SW 6 16732 16111 10278 White 21
4 PM Sat 92 96 SW 6 16321 15414 9581 White 19
5 PM Sat 91 93 W 14 15536 14332 8499 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 89 90 W 14 14446 13202 7369 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 86 86 W 14 13020 11348 5515 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 84 84 W 18 12093 10132 4299 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 18 10809 8229 2396 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 81 81 W 18 10217 6721 888 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 80 80 W 17 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 W 17 8369 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 78 78 W 17 6821 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 77 77 NW 13 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 76 76 NW 13 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 75 75 NW 13 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 75 75 NW 12 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 NW 12 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 NW 12 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 79 80 N 6 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 82 84 N 6 12093 10132 4299 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 85 89 N 6 14071 12962 7129 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 88 94 S 5 15890 14697 8864 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 90 97 S 5 16527 15765 9932 White 20
1 PM Sun 91 99 S 5 16938 16454 10621 White 22
2 PM Sun 92 99 S 9 16938 16454 10621 White 22
3 PM Sun 93 99 S 9 16938 16454 10621 White 22
4 PM Sun 93 97 S 9 16527 15765 9932 White 20
5 PM Sun 91 93 W 15 15536 14332 8499 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 89 90 W 15 14446 13202 7369 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 15 13020 11348 5515 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 83 83 W 15 11476 9441 3608 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 81 81 W 15 10217 6721 888 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 80 80 W 15 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 79 79 W 17 8369 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 W 17 6821 5833 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 77 77 W 17 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 75 75 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 79 W 14 8369 5833 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 81 83 W 14 11476 9441 3608 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 84 88 W 14 13692 12542 6709 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 88 94 SW 13 15890 14697 8864 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 90 97 SW 13 16527 15765 9932 White 20
1 PM Mon 91 98 SW 13 16732 16111 10278 White 21
2 PM Mon 92 99 SW 13 16938 16454 10621 White 22
3 PM Mon 92 98 SW 13 16732 16111 10278 White 21
4 PM Mon 91 95 SW 13 16115 15058 9225 White 18
5 PM Mon 89 91 SW 18 14814 13585 7752 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 87 87 SW 18 13306 11957 6124 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 84 84 SW 18 12093 10132 4299 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 82 82 SW 18 10809 8229 2396 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 80 80 SW 18 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 78 78 SW 18 6821 5833 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 77 77 W 15 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 76 76 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 75 75 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 W 13 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 W 13 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 W 13 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 75 W 13 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 W 13 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 81 85 W 13 12683 10680 4847 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 84 89 S 10 14071 12962 7129 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 86 92 S 10 15178 13961 8128 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 88 95 S 10 16115 15058 9225 White 18
2 PM Tue 88 94 S 10 15890 14697 8864 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 88 93 S 10 15536 14332 8499 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 88 91 S 10 14814 13585 7752 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 87 89 SW 17 14071 12962 7129 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 85 85 SW 17 12683 10680 4847 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 82 82 SW 17 10809 8229 2396 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 80 80 SW 17 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 78 78 SW 17 6821 5833 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 77 77 SW 17 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 76 76 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 W 14 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 W 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 W 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 W 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 76 W 10 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 W 10 10217 6721 888 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 82 86 W 10 13020 11348 5515 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 85 90 S 10 14446 13202 7369 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 87 93 S 10 15536 14332 8499 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 88 95 S 10 16115 15058 9225 White 18
2 PM Wed 89 96 S 10 16321 15414 9581 White 19
3 PM Wed 89 94 S 10 15890 14697 8864 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 89 93 S 10 15536 14332 8499 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 16 14446 13202 7369 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 86 86 SW 16 13020 11348 5515 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 16 11476 9441 3608 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 80 80 SW 16 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 16 6821 5833 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 16 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 W 15 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 W 12 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 W 12 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 74 W 12 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 W 12 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 81 W 12 10217 6721 888 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 82 86 W 12 13020 11348 5515 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 86 92 S 10 15178 13961 8128 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 88 95 S 10 16115 15058 9225 White 18
1 PM Thu 89 97 S 10 16527 15765 9932 White 20
2 PM Thu 90 97 S 10 16527 15765 9932 White 20
3 PM Thu 90 96 S 10 16321 15414 9581 White 19
4 PM Thu 90 94 S 10 15890 14697 8864 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 88 90 SW 17 14446 13202 7369 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 86 87 SW 17 13306 11957 6124 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 17 11476 9441 3608 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 80 80 SW 17 9602 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 17 6821 5833 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 77 77 SW 17 4841 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 W 17 4678 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com