Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 E 1 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 E 1 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 E 1 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 S 3 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 47 S 3 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 47 S 3 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 SW 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 SW 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 SW 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 W 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 W 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 W 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 W 8 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 W 8 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 8 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NW 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NW 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 E 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 51 E 7 4439 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 52 E 7 4785 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 51 53 S 3 5100 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 S 3 4785 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 S 3 4439 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 NE 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NE 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NE 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 5 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 SE 7 4439 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 52 SE 7 4785 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 53 SE 7 5100 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 54 SE 7 5366 5833 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 53 54 SE 7 5366 5833 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 53 53 SE 7 5100 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 S 6 4439 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 S 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 S 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 W 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 W 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 SW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 SW 15 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 48 SW 15 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 49 SW 15 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 49 SW 15 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 49 SW 15 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 49 49 SW 15 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 47 NW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 NW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 NW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 NW 13 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NW 13 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NW 13 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NW 13 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NW 13 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NW 13 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NW 12 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 NW 12 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 NW 12 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NW 12 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 NW 12 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 NW 12 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 N 9 4785 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 N 9 4785 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 53 N 9 5100 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 52 N 9 4785 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 4439 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 7 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 N 10 4439 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 NE 7 5366 5833 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 54 56 NE 7 5895 5833 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 55 57 NE 7 6157 5833 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 55 57 NE 7 6157 5833 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 56 57 NE 7 6157 5833 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 55 55 NE 7 5631 5833 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 53 53 NE 6 5100 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 NE 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 NE 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3983 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com