Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 31 31 W 31 5460 5833 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 W 31 5460 5833 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 W 31 5460 5833 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 W 26 5460 5833 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 26 5682 5833 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 W 26 6127 5833 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 34 35 W 24 6346 5950 117 White 3
11 AM Sat 35 36 W 24 6565 6565 732 White 4
12 Noon Sat 35 36 W 24 6565 6565 732 White 4
1 PM Sat 36 37 W 28 6784 6784 951 White 5
2 PM Sat 36 37 W 28 6784 6784 951 White 5
3 PM Sat 36 36 W 28 6565 6565 732 White 4
4 PM Sat 34 34 W 28 6127 5833 0 White 2
5 PM Sat 32 32 W 28 5682 5833 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 W 28 5682 5833 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 W 31 5460 5833 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 W 31 5460 5833 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 W 31 5460 5833 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 W 26 5460 5833 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 W 26 5237 5833 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 W 26 5237 5833 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 W 26 5237 5833 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 W 26 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 W 26 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 W 22 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 W 22 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 22 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 W 18 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 W 18 5460 5833 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 W 18 5682 5833 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 33 34 W 28 6127 5833 0 White 2
11 AM Sun 33 35 W 28 6346 5950 117 White 3
12 Noon Sun 34 36 W 28 6565 6565 732 White 4
1 PM Sun 34 36 W 26 6565 6565 732 White 4
2 PM Sun 34 35 W 26 6346 5950 117 White 3
3 PM Sun 33 33 W 26 5905 5833 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 32 32 W 21 5682 5833 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 31 31 W 21 5460 5833 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 W 21 5237 5833 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 W 16 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 W 16 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 W 16 5237 5833 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 NW 13 5237 5833 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 NW 13 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 NW 13 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 NW 13 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 NW 13 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 NW 13 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 NW 16 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 NW 16 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 NW 16 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 NW 16 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 NW 16 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 32 NW 16 5682 5833 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 33 35 NW 15 6346 5950 117 White 3
11 AM Mon 34 36 NW 15 6565 6565 732 White 4
12 Noon Mon 34 37 NW 16 6784 6784 951 White 5
1 PM Mon 34 36 NW 16 6565 6565 732 White 4
2 PM Mon 34 36 NW 16 6565 6565 732 White 4
3 PM Mon 34 35 NW 16 6346 5950 117 White 3
4 PM Mon 33 33 NW 15 5905 5833 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 32 32 NW 14 5682 5833 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 NW 13 5460 5833 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 NW 13 5237 5833 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 NW 13 5237 5833 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 NW 14 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 29 29 NW 14 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 29 29 NW 14 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 NW 14 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 NW 14 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 NW 14 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 NW 14 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 27 NW 14 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 NW 14 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 N 13 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 N 13 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 N 13 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 32 N 14 5682 5833 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 33 36 N 14 6565 6565 732 White 4
11 AM Tue 34 38 N 14 7003 7003 1170 White 6
12 Noon Tue 34 38 N 14 7003 7003 1170 White 6
1 PM Tue 34 38 N 13 7003 7003 1170 White 6
2 PM Tue 34 37 N 13 6784 6784 951 White 5
3 PM Tue 34 35 N 12 6346 5950 117 White 3
4 PM Tue 34 34 N 10 6127 5833 0 White 2
5 PM Tue 33 33 N 10 5905 5833 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 31 31 N 10 5460 5833 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 30 30 N 10 5237 5833 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 NW 10 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 NW 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 NW 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 NW 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 NW 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 NW 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 W 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 W 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 W 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 W 10 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 5237 5833 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 31 32 W 10 5682 5833 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 33 34 W 10 6127 5833 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 34 35 W 10 6346 5950 117 White 3
12 Noon Wed 35 36 W 10 6565 6565 732 White 4
1 PM Wed 35 36 W 10 6565 6565 732 White 4
2 PM Wed 35 36 W 10 6565 6565 732 White 4
3 PM Wed 35 35 W 10 6346 5950 117 White 3
4 PM Wed 35 35 SW 14 6346 5950 117 White 3
5 PM Wed 34 34 SW 14 6127 5833 0 White 2
6 PM Wed 34 34 SW 14 6127 5833 0 White 2
7 PM Wed 33 33 SW 14 5905 5833 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 SW 14 5905 5833 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 SW 14 5905 5833 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 W 17 5905 5833 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 W 17 5905 5833 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 W 17 5682 5833 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 W 17 5682 5833 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 W 17 5682 5833 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 W 17 5460 5833 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 W 18 5460 5833 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 W 18 5237 5833 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 W 18 5237 5833 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 W 18 5237 5833 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 W 18 5460 5833 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 W 18 5682 5833 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 33 34 W 18 6127 5833 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 33 35 W 18 6346 5950 117 White 3
12 Noon Thu 33 35 W 18 6346 5950 117 White 3
1 PM Thu 33 35 W 18 6346 5950 117 White 3
2 PM Thu 32 33 W 18 5905 5833 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 32 33 W 18 5905 5833 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 31 31 W 16 5460 5833 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 W 16 5237 5833 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 W 16 5237 5833 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 W 16 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 W 16 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 W 16 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 W 15 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 W 15 4955 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 W 15 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 W 15 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 W 15 4888 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 27 27 W 15 4888 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com