Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 61 61 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 61 61 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 62 62 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 66 67 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 72 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 72 77 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 75 82 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 77 85 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 87 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 80 87 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 84 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 82 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 78 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 59 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 59 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 60 60 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 65 66 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 68 71 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 71 76 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 73 78 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 76 82 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 78 84 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 79 84 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 79 83 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 78 81 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 76 77 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 59 59 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 60 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 65 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 69 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 73 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 73 76 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 76 79 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 78 79 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 79 79 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 79 79 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 78 79 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 76 76 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 74 74 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 61 61 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 59 59 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 58 58 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 58 58 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 63 64 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 65 68 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 68 72 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 70 75 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 73 79 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 74 80 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 75 80 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 75 79 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 74 77 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 72 73 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 71 71 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 63 63 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 60 60 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 57 57 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 56 56 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 55 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 55 55 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 55 55 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 58 58 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 60 61 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 64 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 64 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 65 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 67 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 67 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 67 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 65 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 64 65 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 51 51 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 54 55 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 57 59 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 63 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 62 67 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 70 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 72 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 66 72 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 66 71 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 65 68 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 64 65 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 55 55 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 53 53 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com