Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 71 71 W 15 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 NW 14 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 NW 12 5328 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 75 S 9 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 77 79 SE 9 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 79 83 SE 10 9018 8308 2475 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 81 87 SE 12 10214 9280 3447 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 83 90 SE 14 11529 10166 4333 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 85 93 S 14 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 86 93 S 14 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 87 93 S 16 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 87 91 S 18 11704 10546 4713 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 86 88 S 18 10633 9577 3744 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 85 85 S 18 9620 8713 2880 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 81 81 S 21 8540 8026 2193 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 78 78 W 22 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 24 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 76 76 W 25 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 75 75 W 26 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 W 26 5819 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 W 26 5819 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 W 25 5328 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 W 22 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 78 78 W 21 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 80 82 SW 15 8734 8133 2300 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 83 86 SW 12 9918 8980 3147 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 85 91 SE 12 11704 10546 4713 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 87 94 SE 12 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 88 96 SE 12 12535 12014 6181 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 88 95 SW 13 12394 11841 6008 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 13 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 88 92 SW 13 11879 11028 5195 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 87 89 W 23 11121 9872 4039 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 84 84 W 23 9321 8516 2683 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 23 8540 8026 2193 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 26 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 26 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 26 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 76 76 W 28 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 W 28 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 75 75 W 28 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 74 74 W 25 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 W 25 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 W 25 5819 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 W 23 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 W 23 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 77 77 W 23 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 79 79 W 16 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 81 82 W 16 8734 8133 2300 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 83 85 W 16 9620 8713 2880 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 85 88 E 10 10633 9577 3744 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 87 91 E 10 11704 10546 4713 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 88 92 E 10 11879 11028 5195 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 89 94 SE 12 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 90 94 SE 12 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 90 93 SE 12 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 89 90 SW 14 11529 10166 4333 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 86 86 SW 14 9918 8980 3147 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 82 82 SW 14 8734 8133 2300 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 79 79 W 23 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 78 78 W 23 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 77 77 W 23 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 77 77 W 26 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 W 26 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 76 76 W 26 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 76 76 W 23 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 76 76 W 23 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 76 76 W 23 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 76 76 NW 22 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 77 77 NW 22 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 78 78 NW 22 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 80 80 W 14 8330 7918 2085 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 82 84 W 14 9321 8516 2683 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 85 88 W 14 10633 9577 3744 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 87 92 SE 10 11879 11028 5195 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 88 94 SE 10 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 89 96 SE 10 12535 12014 6181 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 90 97 SE 12 13084 12188 6355 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 91 97 SE 12 13084 12188 6355 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 91 95 SE 12 12394 11841 6008 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 90 92 S 14 11879 11028 5195 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 87 87 S 14 10214 9280 3447 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 84 84 S 14 9321 8516 2683 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 22 8540 8026 2193 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 80 80 SW 22 8330 7918 2085 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 79 79 SW 22 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 79 79 W 26 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 W 26 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 78 78 W 26 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 77 77 W 23 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 77 77 W 23 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 77 77 W 23 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 77 77 W 22 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 78 78 W 22 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 79 79 W 22 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 81 81 W 14 8540 8026 2193 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 83 85 W 14 9620 8713 2880 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 85 89 W 14 11121 9872 4039 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 87 93 S 12 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 88 95 S 12 12394 11841 6008 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 89 96 S 12 12535 12014 6181 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 90 97 S 18 13084 12188 6355 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 90 96 S 18 12535 12014 6181 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 90 94 S 18 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 89 91 S 22 11704 10546 4713 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 86 86 S 22 9918 8980 3147 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 82 82 S 22 8734 8133 2300 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 26 8144 7810 1977 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 26 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 26 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 77 77 W 26 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 W 26 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 26 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 76 76 W 24 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 75 75 W 24 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 75 75 W 24 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 75 75 W 22 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 76 76 W 22 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 77 77 W 22 7928 6281 448 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 78 78 W 15 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 80 82 W 15 8734 8133 2300 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 82 86 W 15 9918 8980 3147 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 84 89 S 13 11121 9872 4039 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 86 92 S 13 11879 11028 5195 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 87 93 S 13 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 88 94 S 20 12228 11667 5834 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 88 93 S 20 12054 11493 5660 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 88 91 S 20 11704 10546 4713 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 87 89 SW 22 11121 9872 4039 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 84 84 SW 22 9321 8516 2683 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 81 81 SW 22 8540 8026 2193 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 26 8036 7651 1818 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 76 76 SW 26 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 26 7820 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 75 75 W 28 7673 5833 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 W 28 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 28 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 74 74 W 26 6300 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com