Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 WNW 23 29 6376 5833 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 23 29 5774 5833 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 23 32 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 28 35 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 33 36 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 29 34 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 28 32 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 26 28 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 51 52 WNW 23 26 6589 5833 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 52 54 WNW 18 21 6911 6366 533 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 56 60 WNW 17 19 9885 8001 2168 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 59 65 WNW 17 20 11287 10831 4998 White 19
12 Noon Wed 61 68 W 18 23 11915 11915 6082 White 22
1 PM Wed 62 69 W 21 26 12124 12124 6291 White 23
2 PM Wed 62 68 W 26 31 11915 11915 6082 White 22
3 PM Wed 63 68 W 29 36 11915 11915 6082 White 22
4 PM Wed 61 64 W 35 42 11076 10331 4498 White 18
5 PM Wed 59 60 W 42 49 9885 8001 2168 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 46 52 8065 6902 1069 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 52 52 W 46 54 6589 5833 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 44 50 5774 5833 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 44 49 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 42 46 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 48 48 WNW 40 44 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 WNW 41 44 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 39 42 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 37 40 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 35 41 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 37 40 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 37 40 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 35 39 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 34 37 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 48 49 WNW 33 36 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 50 53 WNW 29 34 6774 5833 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 53 58 WNW 27 33 8697 7038 1205 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 56 62 W 27 35 10652 9219 3386 White 16
12 Noon Thu 58 65 W 27 35 11287 10831 4998 White 19
1 PM Thu 58 66 W 27 35 11497 11340 5507 White 20
2 PM Thu 59 66 W 35 42 11497 11340 5507 White 20
3 PM Thu 59 64 W 35 42 11076 10331 4498 White 18
4 PM Thu 59 62 W 35 42 10652 9219 3386 White 16
5 PM Thu 57 58 W 50 55 8697 7038 1205 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 50 55 6911 6366 533 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 50 55 6376 5833 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 51 56 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 51 56 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 51 56 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 46 54 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 46 54 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 46 54 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 48 51 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 48 51 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 48 51 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 42 46 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 42 46 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 W 42 46 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 49 50 W 34 40 5774 5833 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 50 52 W 34 40 6589 5833 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 52 55 W 34 40 7047 6578 745 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 53 59 W 35 46 9302 7350 1517 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 54 61 W 35 46 10422 8622 2789 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 55 62 W 35 46 10652 9219 3386 White 16
2 PM Fri 55 61 W 42 57 10422 8622 2789 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 54 59 W 42 57 9302 7350 1517 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 53 56 W 42 57 7403 6766 933 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 51 52 W 51 74 6589 5833 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 49 49 W 51 74 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 47 47 W 51 74 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 46 46 WNW 43 54 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 WNW 43 54 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 WNW 43 54 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 WNW 37 47 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 WNW 37 47 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 WNW 37 47 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 29 42 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 29 42 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 29 42 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 23 34 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 23 34 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 23 34 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 W 20 31 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 49 52 W 20 31 6589 5833 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 52 56 W 20 31 7403 6766 933 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 55 61 WSW 13 20 10422 8622 2789 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 57 65 WSW 13 20 11287 10831 4998 White 19
1 PM Sat 59 67 WSW 13 20 11707 11707 5874 White 21
2 PM Sat 60 67 WSW 14 21 11707 11707 5874 White 21
3 PM Sat 60 65 WSW 14 21 11287 10831 4998 White 19
4 PM Sat 59 62 WSW 14 21 10652 9219 3386 White 16
5 PM Sat 58 60 W 19 32 9885 8001 2168 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 56 56 W 19 32 7403 6766 933 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 19 32 6774 5833 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 19 32 6376 5833 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 19 32 5774 5833 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 19 32 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 19 29 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 19 29 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 47 47 W 19 29 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 19 29 5098 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 19 29 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 W 19 29 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 W 14 23 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 W 14 23 4892 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 14 23 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 50 51 W 14 23 6376 5833 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 53 56 W 14 23 7403 6766 933 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 57 62 W 14 23 10652 9219 3386 White 16
11 AM Sun 60 67 SW 12 19 11707 11707 5874 White 21
12 Noon Sun 63 71 SW 12 19 12542 12542 6709 White 25
1 PM Sun 65 73 SW 12 19 12957 12957 7124 White 27
2 PM Sun 66 73 SW 12 19 12957 12957 7124 White 27
3 PM Sun 66 71 SW 12 19 12542 12542 6709 White 25
4 PM Sun 66 70 SW 12 19 12333 12333 6500 White 24
5 PM Sun 64 66 W 16 26 11497 11340 5507 White 20
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 16 26 10652 9219 3386 White 16
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 16 26 9302 7350 1517 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 16 26 7403 6766 933 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 16 26 6911 6366 533 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 16 26 6774 5833 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 16 25 6589 5833 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 W 16 25 6376 5833 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 16 25 5774 5833 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 49 49 W 16 25 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 48 48 W 16 25 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 16 25 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 47 47 W 13 19 5267 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 48 48 W 13 19 5436 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 49 49 W 13 19 5605 5833 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 52 53 W 13 19 6774 5833 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 55 58 W 13 19 8697 7038 1205 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 59 64 W 13 19 11076 10331 4498 White 18
11 AM Mon 63 69 SSW 12 19 12124 12124 6291 White 23
12 Noon Mon 66 74 SSW 12 19 13165 13165 7332 White 28
1 PM Mon 68 76 SSW 12 19 13579 13579 7746 White 30
2 PM Mon 69 76 SSW 12 19 13579 13579 7746 White 30
3 PM Mon 70 75 SSW 12 19 13372 13372 7539 White 29
4 PM Mon 69 73 SSW 12 19 12957 12957 7124 White 27
5 PM Mon 68 70 W 18 26 12333 12333 6500 White 24
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 18 26 11287 10831 4998 White 19
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 18 26 10652 9219 3386 White 16
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 18 26 9302 7350 1517 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 18 26 8065 6902 1069 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 18 26 7047 6578 745 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]