Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 21 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 21 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 21 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 NE 20 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 NE 20 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 NE 20 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 60 63 NE 18 7805 6625 792 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 62 66 NE 18 9509 7771 1938 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 63 67 NE 18 10413 8143 2310 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 64 68 NE 21 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 65 68 NE 21 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 65 66 NE 21 9509 7771 1938 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 64 64 N 20 8181 7012 1179 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 20 7424 6361 528 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 20 6370 5833 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 14 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 S 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 S 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 S 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 S 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 14 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 12 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 12 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 12 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 N 10 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 10 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 N 10 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 61 64 E 8 8181 7012 1179 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 63 67 E 8 10413 8143 2310 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 64 68 E 8 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 65 69 E 10 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 65 68 E 10 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 65 66 E 10 9509 7771 1938 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 63 63 E 6 7805 6625 792 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 61 61 E 6 7038 6157 324 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 58 58 E 6 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 56 56 E 6 5133 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 E 6 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 5 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NE 5 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NE 5 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 5 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 N 7 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 N 7 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 N 7 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 62 65 E 8 8552 7394 1561 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 64 68 E 8 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 65 69 E 8 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 66 70 E 8 11736 10333 4500 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 67 70 E 8 11736 10333 4500 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 67 68 E 8 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 66 66 E 3 9509 7771 1938 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 64 64 E 3 8181 7012 1179 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 62 62 E 3 7424 6361 528 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 60 60 E 3 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 58 58 E 3 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 57 57 E 3 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 8 5133 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 8 5133 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 4970 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 5133 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 N 9 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 63 65 N 9 8552 7394 1561 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 66 69 NE 13 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 68 72 NE 13 12831 11214 5381 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 69 73 NE 13 13721 11642 5809 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 70 74 NE 13 14151 12061 6228 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 70 73 NE 13 13721 11642 5809 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 70 71 NE 13 12160 10778 4945 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 69 69 NE 13 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 67 67 NE 13 10413 8143 2310 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 65 65 NE 13 8552 7394 1561 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 62 62 NE 13 7424 6361 528 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 61 61 NE 13 7038 6157 324 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 60 60 NE 13 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 60 60 E 9 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 E 9 6370 5833 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 58 58 NE 9 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 60 61 NE 9 7038 6157 324 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 63 65 NE 9 8552 7394 1561 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 66 69 NE 14 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 68 72 NE 14 12831 11214 5381 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 68 72 NE 14 12831 11214 5381 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 69 73 NE 14 13721 11642 5809 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 69 72 NE 14 12831 11214 5381 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 69 70 NE 14 11736 10333 4500 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 68 68 NE 12 10863 8510 2677 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 66 66 NE 12 9509 7771 1938 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 64 64 NE 12 8181 7012 1179 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 63 63 NE 12 7805 6625 792 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 62 62 NE 12 7424 6361 528 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 62 62 NE 12 7424 6361 528 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 61 61 NE 9 7038 6157 324 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NE 9 7038 6157 324 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 61 61 NE 9 7038 6157 324 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 60 60 NE 9 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 60 60 NE 9 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 59 59 NE 9 6370 5833 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 6370 5833 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 58 58 NE 8 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 8 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 6370 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 60 60 NE 8 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 64 NE 8 8181 7012 1179 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 65 67 NE 10 10413 8143 2310 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 66 69 NE 10 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 67 70 NE 10 11736 10333 4500 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 68 70 NE 10 11736 10333 4500 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 68 70 NE 10 11736 10333 4500 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 68 69 NE 10 11304 9343 3510 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 67 67 E 10 10413 8143 2310 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 65 65 E 10 8552 7394 1561 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 62 62 E 10 7424 6361 528 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 60 60 E 10 6646 5953 120 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 59 59 E 10 6370 5833 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 58 58 E 10 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 58 58 SW 7 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SW 7 6165 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 57 57 SW 7 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 57 57 SW 7 5959 5833 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 56 56 SW 7 5133 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SW 7 4970 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com