Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 46 46 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 48 49 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 49 51 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 51 53 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 52 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 53 55 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 53 54 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 51 51 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 47 47 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 45 45 NW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 45 45 NW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 45 45 NW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 45 45 NW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 45 45 NW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 44 44 NW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 43 43 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 41 41 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 40 40 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 40 40 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 38 38 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 38 38 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 40 41 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 40 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 41 43 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 42 44 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 43 45 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 43 44 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 42 42 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 41 41 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 40 40 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 39 39 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 38 38 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 38 38 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 39 39 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 39 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 41 42 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 43 45 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 45 47 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 46 48 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 47 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 47 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 44 44 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 42 42 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 41 41 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 41 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 41 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 43 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 45 47 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 47 49 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 48 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 49 51 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 49 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 47 47 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 43 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 48 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 50 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 51 53 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 51 52 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 51 52 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 49 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 48 48 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 47 47 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 45 45 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 43 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 46 46 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 50 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 51 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 52 53 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 52 53 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 50 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 45 45 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 45 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 44 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com