Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 59 59 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 59 59 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 59 59 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 66 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 70 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 70 74 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 73 78 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 75 81 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 77 83 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 78 84 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 79 83 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 78 81 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 78 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 70 70 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 58 58 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 57 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 61 62 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 62 64 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 64 68 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 66 72 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 68 75 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 69 76 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 76 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 70 75 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 70 73 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 68 69 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 49 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 49 49 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 54 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 57 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 61 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 59 65 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 61 67 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 62 69 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 64 70 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 69 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 67 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 64 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 48 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 53 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 54 56 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 60 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 65 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 67 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 62 69 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 70 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 69 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 64 67 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 64 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 50 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 49 49 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 49 49 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 53 54 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 54 56 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 57 61 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 59 64 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 65 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 66 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 65 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 61 63 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 61 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 52 52 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 49 49 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 49 49 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 53 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 54 56 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 56 59 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 61 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 59 64 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 60 65 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 61 65 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 61 64 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 61 63 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 60 61 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com