Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 46 46 NW 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NW 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NW 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NW 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NW 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 NW 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 61 NW 7 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 63 64 NW 7 7312 6408 575 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 65 66 NW 7 7896 6998 1165 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 66 67 NW 7 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 66 67 NW 7 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 65 65 NW 7 7605 6704 871 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 63 63 NW 6 7017 6110 277 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 61 61 NW 6 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 NW 6 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 S 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 6 7017 6110 277 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 66 67 NE 3 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 68 70 NE 3 9040 8155 2322 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 70 72 NE 3 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 70 72 E 5 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 70 71 E 5 9322 8440 2607 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 69 69 E 5 8757 7869 2036 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 68 68 SE 1 8472 7581 1748 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 66 66 SE 1 7896 6998 1165 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 64 64 SE 1 7312 6408 575 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 62 62 SE 1 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 60 60 SE 1 6121 5833 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 60 60 SE 1 6121 5833 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 60 60 S 6 6121 5833 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 59 59 S 6 5751 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 S 6 5751 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 S 6 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 S 6 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 S 6 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 N 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 7 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 7 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 N 7 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 65 66 N 7 7896 6998 1165 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 69 71 E 7 9322 8440 2607 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 71 73 E 7 9880 9003 3170 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 72 74 E 7 10156 9283 3450 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 73 75 E 7 10436 9560 3727 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 73 74 E 7 10156 9283 3450 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 73 73 E 7 9880 9003 3170 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 72 72 E 6 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 70 70 E 6 9040 8155 2322 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 67 67 E 6 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 65 65 E 6 7605 6704 871 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 63 63 E 6 7017 6110 277 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 6 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 SE 7 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 62 62 SE 7 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SE 7 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 61 61 SE 7 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 59 59 SE 7 5751 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SE 7 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 N 5 5751 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 64 64 N 5 7312 6408 575 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 67 68 N 5 8472 7581 1748 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 70 72 S 6 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 72 74 S 6 10156 9283 3450 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 73 75 S 6 10436 9560 3727 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 74 76 S 6 10716 9836 4003 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 74 75 S 6 10436 9560 3727 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 74 74 S 6 10156 9283 3450 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 73 73 SW 8 9880 9003 3170 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 71 71 SW 8 9322 8440 2607 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 69 69 SW 8 8757 7869 2036 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 8 7605 6704 871 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 7017 6110 277 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 10 5751 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 9 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 9 6121 5833 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 64 64 W 9 7312 6408 575 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 66 67 W 9 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 68 70 W 8 9040 8155 2322 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 70 72 W 8 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 71 73 W 8 9880 9003 3170 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 72 74 W 8 10156 9283 3450 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 72 73 W 8 9880 9003 3170 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 71 71 W 8 9322 8440 2607 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 70 70 W 8 9040 8155 2322 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 8757 7869 2036 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 7605 6704 871 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 8 7017 6110 277 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 10 6422 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 10 5751 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 10 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 9 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 9 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 9 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 W 9 6121 5833 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 62 62 W 9 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 65 66 W 9 7896 6998 1165 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 67 69 SW 14 8757 7869 2036 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 68 70 SW 14 9040 8155 2322 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 69 71 SW 14 9322 8440 2607 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 70 72 SW 14 9602 8722 2889 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 70 71 SW 14 9322 8440 2607 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 9040 8155 2322 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 69 69 SW 15 8757 7869 2036 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 67 67 SW 15 8185 7290 1457 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 66 66 SW 15 7896 6998 1165 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 64 64 SW 15 7312 6408 575 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 15 6721 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 15 6121 5833 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 5140 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 14 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 14 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 14 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 14 4934 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 14 4934 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com