Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 16 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NW 14 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 14 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NW 7 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 56 57 N 12 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 58 60 NE 9 6919 6295 462 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 60 63 SE 6 7712 6903 1070 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 61 65 SE 9 8219 7428 1595 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 62 66 S 12 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 63 67 S 6 9139 7948 2115 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 63 66 S 14 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 62 63 SW 16 7712 6903 1070 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 22 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 22 5914 5833 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 53 53 W 29 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 25 5547 5833 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 25 5547 5833 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 25 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 22 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 22 5302 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 22 5302 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 20 5302 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 20 5302 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 W 20 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 W 18 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 W 18 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 W 21 5547 5833 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 57 58 NW 14 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 59 61 W 10 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 61 64 N 5 7973 7166 1333 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 62 66 N 5 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 63 67 N 5 9139 7948 2115 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 64 68 W 8 9680 8194 2361 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 64 67 W 8 9139 7948 2115 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 63 64 W 8 7973 7166 1333 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 62 62 NW 22 7449 6638 805 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 58 58 NW 22 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 55 55 NW 22 6097 5833 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 29 5914 5833 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 29 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 29 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 26 5547 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 W 26 5547 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 51 51 W 26 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 51 51 NW 23 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 51 51 NW 23 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 51 51 NW 23 5411 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 50 50 NW 20 5302 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NW 20 5302 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NW 20 4836 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NW 16 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 57 58 NW 16 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 59 61 NW 16 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 60 63 E 10 7712 6903 1070 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 62 66 E 10 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 62 66 E 10 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 63 67 E 10 9139 7948 2115 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 63 66 E 10 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 63 64 E 10 7973 7166 1333 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 61 61 SE 10 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 59 59 SE 10 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 56 56 SE 10 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 55 55 NW 14 6097 5833 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 14 6097 5833 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 55 55 NW 14 6097 5833 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 54 54 NW 16 5914 5833 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 16 5914 5833 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 16 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 54 54 NW 15 5914 5833 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 15 5914 5833 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 53 53 NW 15 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 53 53 NW 15 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 53 53 NW 15 5731 5833 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 52 52 NW 15 5547 5833 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 14 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 14 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 62 64 N 14 7973 7166 1333 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 63 66 E 10 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 65 69 E 10 10164 8515 2682 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 65 69 E 10 10164 8515 2682 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 66 70 E 10 10490 9066 3233 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 66 69 E 10 10164 8515 2682 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 66 67 E 10 9139 7948 2115 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 64 64 SE 10 7973 7166 1333 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 62 62 SE 10 7449 6638 805 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 59 59 SE 10 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 58 58 NW 13 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 13 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 13 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 57 57 NW 15 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NW 15 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 56 56 NW 15 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 57 57 N 14 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 57 57 N 14 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 14 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 15 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 15 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 15 6097 5833 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 59 59 N 14 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 64 65 N 14 8219 7428 1595 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 66 68 N 14 9680 8194 2361 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 68 71 NE 9 10813 9600 3767 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 69 73 NE 9 11110 10432 4599 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 70 74 NE 9 11198 10752 4919 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 71 75 E 10 11286 11005 5172 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 71 74 E 10 11198 10752 4919 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 70 71 E 10 10813 9600 3767 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 69 69 SE 10 10164 8515 2682 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 65 65 SE 10 8219 7428 1595 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 61 61 SE 10 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 14 6919 6295 462 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 14 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 14 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 58 58 NW 16 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NW 16 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 57 57 NW 16 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 58 58 W 16 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 16 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 16 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 16 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 56 56 NW 16 6219 5833 0 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 55 55 NW 16 6097 5833 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 59 59 N 14 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 65 66 N 14 8580 7689 1856 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 67 69 N 14 10164 8515 2682 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 69 72 N 9 11023 10109 4276 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 70 74 N 9 11198 10752 4919 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 71 75 N 9 11286 11005 5172 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 72 76 E 10 11373 11093 5260 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 72 75 E 10 11286 11005 5172 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 71 72 E 10 11023 10109 4276 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 69 69 E 10 10164 8515 2682 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 65 65 E 10 8219 7428 1595 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 10 7185 6374 541 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 16 6919 6295 462 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 60 60 N 16 6919 6295 462 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 59 59 N 16 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 17 6652 6215 382 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 17 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 17 6298 5909 76 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 18 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 18 6384 6091 258 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 18 6298 5909 76 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com