Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 WNW 17 20 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 69 69 WNW 11 16 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 10 14 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 65 65 WNW 10 14 6220 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 WNW 10 14 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NW 10 14 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 NW 10 13 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 NW 8 12 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 73 NNE 8 12 10691 8666 2833 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 73 76 NE 8 11 13231 10532 4699 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 75 80 ENE 9 12 14602 13583 7750 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 76 83 E 10 14 15691 14494 8661 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 78 86 SE 10 16 18797 15525 9692 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 79 87 SSE 10 19 19225 16036 10203 White 20
2 PM Wed 80 87 S 11 20 19225 16036 10203 White 20
3 PM Wed 81 87 S 11 21 19225 16036 10203 White 20
4 PM Wed 81 85 S 13 23 16746 15185 9352 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 80 82 SSW 13 21 15299 14142 8309 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 14 24 13911 12225 6392 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 18 27 13231 10532 4699 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 19 32 11586 8844 3011 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 19 29 10691 8666 2833 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 18 26 9908 8487 2654 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 71 71 W 18 25 8927 8308 2475 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 WNW 16 23 8685 8066 2233 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 14 21 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 14 20 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 67 67 WNW 13 18 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 13 18 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 13 18 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 WNW 11 16 6220 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 9 12 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 75 76 N 6 10 13231 10532 4699 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 76 79 E 6 10 14247 13000 7167 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 77 82 E 8 11 15299 14142 8309 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 78 85 SE 10 16 16746 15185 9352 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 80 88 SE 10 16 19422 16551 10718 White 21
1 PM Thu 81 89 SE 10 16 19619 18035 12202 White 21
2 PM Thu 82 89 S 11 19 19619 18035 12202 White 21
3 PM Thu 82 88 S 11 19 19422 16551 10718 White 21
4 PM Thu 81 85 S 11 19 16746 15185 9352 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 80 82 WSW 16 24 15299 14142 8309 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 16 24 13911 12225 6392 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 16 24 12403 9817 3984 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 21 34 10691 8666 2833 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 21 34 9908 8487 2654 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 21 34 8927 8308 2475 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 19 26 8685 8066 2233 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 WNW 19 26 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 19 26 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 18 26 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 18 26 6220 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 W 18 26 5056 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 16 23 5056 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 16 23 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 WNW 16 23 8685 8066 2233 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 73 74 WNW 12 18 11586 8844 3011 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 75 78 WNW 12 18 13911 12225 6392 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 76 81 WNW 12 18 14953 13839 8006 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 77 84 S 10 17 16227 14842 9009 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 78 86 S 10 17 18797 15525 9692 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 80 88 S 10 17 19422 16551 10718 White 21
2 PM Fri 80 88 SW 13 25 19422 16551 10718 White 21
3 PM Fri 80 86 SW 13 25 18797 15525 9692 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 79 83 SW 13 25 15691 14494 8661 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 77 79 W 23 40 14247 13000 7167 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 23 40 12403 9817 3984 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 23 40 9908 8487 2654 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 26 42 8685 8066 2233 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 26 42 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 26 42 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 23 37 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 23 37 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 23 37 6220 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 21 33 5056 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 21 33 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 21 33 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 W 18 28 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 W 18 28 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 W 18 28 6220 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 68 WSW 16 26 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 69 72 WSW 16 26 9908 8487 2654 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 71 75 WSW 16 26 12403 9817 3984 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 72 77 SW 16 32 13653 11416 5583 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 73 79 SW 16 32 14247 13000 7167 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 73 79 SW 16 32 14247 13000 7167 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 73 79 WSW 18 35 14247 13000 7167 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 72 77 WSW 18 35 13653 11416 5583 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 70 73 WSW 18 35 10691 8666 2833 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 68 70 WSW 25 43 8685 8066 2233 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 25 43 6220 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 25 43 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 24 39 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 24 39 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 24 39 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 W 21 34 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 21 34 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 21 34 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 W 18 27 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 W 18 27 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 18 27 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 W 14 21 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 W 14 21 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 14 21 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 W 12 19 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 67 W 12 19 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 70 W 12 19 8685 8066 2233 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 66 67 SW 12 19 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 68 SW 12 19 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 68 69 SW 12 19 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 68 69 W 11 20 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 68 69 W 11 20 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 68 68 W 11 20 8325 6190 357 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 67 69 W 18 29 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 66 66 W 18 29 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 18 29 5056 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 19 28 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 19 28 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 19 28 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 18 25 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 18 25 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 18 25 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 17 23 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 17 23 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 17 23 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 14 21 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 W 14 21 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 W 14 21 4895 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 66 W 12 18 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 71 W 12 18 8927 8308 2475 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 70 75 W 12 18 12403 9817 3984 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 72 79 SSW 11 18 14247 13000 7167 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 74 82 SSW 11 18 15299 14142 8309 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 75 83 SSW 11 18 15691 14494 8661 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 75 82 SW 13 24 15299 14142 8309 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 75 81 SW 13 24 14953 13839 8006 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 74 78 SW 13 24 13911 12225 6392 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 73 75 W 20 33 12403 9817 3984 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 20 33 8927 8308 2475 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 20 33 8505 7179 1346 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 67 67 W 23 33 8108 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 W 23 33 7236 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 23 33 7236 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com