Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 28 28 W 25 6364 5938 105 White 5
5 AM Fri 27 27 W 25 6144 5833 0 White 4
6 AM Fri 27 27 W 25 6144 5833 0 White 4
7 AM Fri 27 27 NW 21 6144 5833 0 White 4
8 AM Fri 29 29 NW 21 6583 6137 304 White 7
9 AM Fri 32 33 NW 21 7444 7444 1611 White 11
10 AM Fri 34 36 NW 14 8085 8085 2252 White 14
11 AM Fri 36 39 NW 14 8726 8726 2893 White 17
12 Noon Fri 37 40 NW 14 8939 8939 3106 White 18
1 PM Fri 37 40 NW 12 8939 8939 3106 White 18
2 PM Fri 37 39 NW 12 8726 8726 2893 White 17
3 PM Fri 37 38 NW 12 8512 8512 2679 White 16
4 PM Fri 36 36 N 14 8085 8085 2252 White 14
5 PM Fri 35 35 N 14 7871 7871 2038 White 13
6 PM Fri 34 34 N 14 7658 7658 1825 White 12
7 PM Fri 33 33 N 12 7444 7444 1611 White 11
8 PM Fri 33 33 N 12 7444 7444 1611 White 11
9 PM Fri 32 32 N 12 7229 7229 1396 White 10
10 PM Fri 32 32 NW 9 7229 7229 1396 White 10
11 PM Fri 32 32 NW 9 7229 7229 1396 White 10
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 NW 9 7015 7015 1182 White 9
1 AM Sat 31 31 NW 8 7015 7015 1182 White 9
2 AM Sat 30 30 NW 8 6800 6335 502 White 8
3 AM Sat 30 30 NW 8 6800 6335 502 White 8
4 AM Sat 29 29 NW 7 6583 6137 304 White 7
5 AM Sat 29 29 NW 7 6583 6137 304 White 7
6 AM Sat 29 29 NW 7 6583 6137 304 White 7
7 AM Sat 31 31 W 6 7015 7015 1182 White 9
8 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 7444 7444 1611 White 11
9 AM Sat 36 38 W 6 8512 8512 2679 White 16
10 AM Sat 39 42 SW 6 9364 9342 3509 White 20
11 AM Sat 42 46 SW 6 10148 9743 3910 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 43 47 SW 6 10316 9876 4043 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 45 49 W 13 10668 10126 4293 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 45 48 W 13 10492 10001 4168 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 45 46 W 13 10148 9743 3910 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 44 44 W 23 9803 9533 3700 White 22
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 23 9364 9342 3509 White 20
6 PM Sat 40 40 W 23 8939 8939 3106 White 18
7 PM Sat 38 38 W 23 8512 8512 2679 White 16
8 PM Sat 37 37 W 23 8298 8298 2465 White 15
9 PM Sat 36 36 W 23 8085 8085 2252 White 14
10 PM Sat 36 36 NW 10 8085 8085 2252 White 14
11 PM Sat 36 36 NW 10 8085 8085 2252 White 14
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 NW 10 7871 7871 2038 White 13
1 AM Sun 35 35 NW 10 7871 7871 2038 White 13
2 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 7658 7658 1825 White 12
3 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 7658 7658 1825 White 12
4 AM Sun 33 33 N 6 7444 7444 1611 White 11
5 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 7229 7229 1396 White 10
6 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 7229 7229 1396 White 10
7 AM Sun 33 33 N 6 7444 7444 1611 White 11
8 AM Sun 35 35 N 6 7871 7871 2038 White 13
9 AM Sun 38 40 N 6 8939 8939 3106 White 18
10 AM Sun 42 45 SE 7 10021 9628 3795 White 23
11 AM Sun 44 48 SE 7 10492 10001 4168 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 45 49 SE 7 10668 10126 4293 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 46 50 SE 7 10844 10283 4450 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 47 50 SE 7 10844 10283 4450 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 47 48 SE 7 10492 10001 4168 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 46 46 SW 10 10148 9743 3910 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 44 44 SW 10 9803 9533 3700 White 22
6 PM Sun 42 42 SW 10 9364 9342 3509 White 20
7 PM Sun 40 40 SW 10 8939 8939 3106 White 18
8 PM Sun 38 38 SW 10 8512 8512 2679 White 16
9 PM Sun 38 38 SW 10 8512 8512 2679 White 16
10 PM Sun 37 37 W 16 8298 8298 2465 White 15
11 PM Sun 37 37 W 16 8298 8298 2465 White 15
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
2 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
4 AM Mon 35 35 W 15 7871 7871 2038 White 13
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 15 7871 7871 2038 White 13
6 AM Mon 34 34 W 15 7658 7658 1825 White 12
7 AM Mon 34 34 W 15 7658 7658 1825 White 12
8 AM Mon 36 36 W 15 8085 8085 2252 White 14
9 AM Mon 39 40 W 15 8939 8939 3106 White 18
10 AM Mon 42 44 W 22 9803 9533 3700 White 22
11 AM Mon 44 47 W 22 10316 9876 4043 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 46 49 W 22 10668 10126 4293 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 46 49 W 22 10668 10126 4293 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 45 47 W 22 10316 9876 4043 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 44 45 W 22 10021 9628 3795 White 23
4 PM Mon 43 43 W 23 9576 9438 3605 White 21
5 PM Mon 41 41 W 23 9152 9152 3319 White 19
6 PM Mon 40 40 W 23 8939 8939 3106 White 18
7 PM Mon 39 39 W 23 8726 8726 2893 White 17
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 23 8512 8512 2679 White 16
9 PM Mon 38 38 W 23 8512 8512 2679 White 16
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 18 8298 8298 2465 White 15
11 PM Mon 36 36 W 18 8085 8085 2252 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 W 18 7871 7871 2038 White 13
1 AM Tue 35 35 W 18 7871 7871 2038 White 13
2 AM Tue 34 34 W 18 7658 7658 1825 White 12
3 AM Tue 34 34 W 18 7658 7658 1825 White 12
4 AM Tue 33 33 NW 16 7444 7444 1611 White 11
5 AM Tue 32 32 NW 16 7229 7229 1396 White 10
6 AM Tue 32 32 NW 16 7229 7229 1396 White 10
7 AM Tue 32 32 NW 16 7229 7229 1396 White 10
8 AM Tue 33 33 NW 16 7444 7444 1611 White 11
9 AM Tue 35 36 NW 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
10 AM Tue 37 38 N 15 8512 8512 2679 White 16
11 AM Tue 38 40 N 15 8939 8939 3106 White 18
12 Noon Tue 39 41 N 15 9152 9152 3319 White 19
1 PM Tue 39 41 N 15 9152 9152 3319 White 19
2 PM Tue 40 41 N 15 9152 9152 3319 White 19
3 PM Tue 40 41 N 15 9152 9152 3319 White 19
4 PM Tue 39 39 NW 12 8726 8726 2893 White 17
5 PM Tue 38 38 NW 12 8512 8512 2679 White 16
6 PM Tue 36 36 NW 12 8085 8085 2252 White 14
7 PM Tue 35 35 NW 12 7871 7871 2038 White 13
8 PM Tue 34 34 NW 12 7658 7658 1825 White 12
9 PM Tue 34 34 NW 12 7658 7658 1825 White 12
10 PM Tue 34 34 W 14 7658 7658 1825 White 12
11 PM Tue 33 33 W 14 7444 7444 1611 White 11
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 W 14 7444 7444 1611 White 11
1 AM Wed 32 32 W 14 7229 7229 1396 White 10
2 AM Wed 32 32 W 14 7229 7229 1396 White 10
3 AM Wed 32 32 W 14 7229 7229 1396 White 10
4 AM Wed 31 31 W 13 7015 7015 1182 White 9
5 AM Wed 31 31 W 13 7015 7015 1182 White 9
6 AM Wed 31 31 W 13 7015 7015 1182 White 9
7 AM Wed 32 32 W 13 7229 7229 1396 White 10
8 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 7658 7658 1825 White 12
9 AM Wed 37 38 W 13 8512 8512 2679 White 16
10 AM Wed 40 42 W 14 9364 9342 3509 White 20
11 AM Wed 42 45 W 14 10021 9628 3795 White 23
12 Noon Wed 43 46 W 14 10148 9743 3910 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 44 47 W 14 10316 9876 4043 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 45 47 W 14 10316 9876 4043 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 45 46 W 14 10148 9743 3910 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 44 44 W 18 9803 9533 3700 White 22
5 PM Wed 43 43 W 18 9576 9438 3605 White 21
6 PM Wed 41 41 W 18 9152 9152 3319 White 19
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 18 8726 8726 2893 White 17
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 18 8512 8512 2679 White 16
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 18 8298 8298 2465 White 15
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 16 8298 8298 2465 White 15
11 PM Wed 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
1 AM Thu 36 36 W 16 8085 8085 2252 White 14
2 AM Thu 35 35 W 16 7871 7871 2038 White 13
3 AM Thu 35 35 W 16 7871 7871 2038 White 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com