Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 70 70 NW 15 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 69 69 NW 12 5845 5833 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 72 72 NW 10 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 76 78 N 7 8579 6764 931 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 77 80 E 1 9343 8149 2316 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 80 86 E 7 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 82 89 E 10 14937 13067 7234 White 23
12 Noon Sat 83 92 SE 9 15567 14726 8893 White 26
1 PM Sat 85 94 S 6 15985 15745 9912 White 28
2 PM Sat 86 94 S 13 15985 15745 9912 White 28
3 PM Sat 86 93 S 12 15777 15243 9410 White 27
4 PM Sat 85 90 W 21 15148 13640 7807 White 24
5 PM Sat 84 87 W 23 13802 11846 6013 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 82 83 W 24 11328 9291 3458 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 25 8963 7735 1902 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 25 7793 6386 553 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 26 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 73 73 W 26 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 72 72 NW 25 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NW 25 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 71 71 NW 24 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 70 70 NW 23 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 70 70 NW 22 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 70 70 NW 20 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 17 5845 5833 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 68 68 W 14 5708 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 70 70 W 13 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 73 75 W 10 6777 6250 417 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 75 78 W 9 8579 6764 931 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 77 83 SW 9 11328 9291 3458 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 79 86 S 10 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 81 89 S 12 14937 13067 7234 White 23
1 PM Sun 82 90 S 13 15148 13640 7807 White 24
2 PM Sun 83 91 S 14 15358 14192 8359 White 25
3 PM Sun 83 89 S 16 14937 13067 7234 White 23
4 PM Sun 82 86 SW 18 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 81 84 SW 22 11990 9662 3829 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 79 80 SW 25 9343 8149 2316 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 29 7793 6386 553 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 30 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 29 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 26 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 23 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 W 22 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 70 70 NW 20 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 69 69 NW 18 5845 5833 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 68 68 NW 17 5708 5833 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 67 67 NW 15 5571 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 67 67 NW 14 5571 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 68 68 NW 13 5708 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 70 70 NW 12 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 72 74 NW 12 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 74 77 N 12 8189 6544 711 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 76 82 NE 13 10627 8916 3083 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 78 83 E 13 11328 9291 3458 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 80 86 E 13 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 81 87 SE 14 13802 11846 6013 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 82 88 SE 14 14359 12470 6637 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 82 87 SE 14 13802 11846 6013 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 82 85 S 14 12621 10499 4666 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 81 83 S 15 11328 9291 3458 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 79 80 S 17 9343 8149 2316 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 77 77 SW 20 8189 6544 711 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 75 75 SW 22 6777 6250 417 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 74 74 W 23 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 23 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 73 73 W 22 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 W 21 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 72 72 NW 20 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 72 72 NW 18 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 71 71 NW 17 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 70 70 NW 16 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 70 70 NW 15 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 71 71 NW 14 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 73 73 NW 13 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 75 77 NW 13 8189 6544 711 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 77 80 N 13 9343 8149 2316 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 79 85 NE 14 12621 10499 4666 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 81 87 E 14 13802 11846 6013 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 82 90 E 14 15148 13640 7807 White 24
1 PM Tue 83 91 E 14 15358 14192 8359 White 25
2 PM Tue 84 91 E 14 15358 14192 8359 White 25
3 PM Tue 84 90 SE 14 15148 13640 7807 White 24
4 PM Tue 84 88 SW 15 14359 12470 6637 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 83 86 W 17 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 17 11328 9291 3458 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 80 80 W 17 9343 8149 2316 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 17 8579 6764 931 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 77 77 W 17 8189 6544 711 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 17 7793 6386 553 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 75 75 W 21 6777 6250 417 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 21 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 74 74 W 21 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 73 73 W 21 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 72 72 W 21 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 71 71 W 21 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 71 71 W 14 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 72 72 W 14 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 74 74 W 14 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 76 78 W 14 8579 6764 931 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 78 81 W 14 9717 8535 2702 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 80 86 W 14 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 82 89 S 8 14937 13067 7234 White 23
12 Noon Wed 84 92 S 8 15567 14726 8893 White 26
1 PM Wed 86 95 S 8 16189 16189 10356 White 29
2 PM Wed 87 95 S 8 16189 16189 10356 White 29
3 PM Wed 87 94 S 8 15985 15745 9912 White 28
4 PM Wed 86 91 S 8 15358 14192 8359 White 25
5 PM Wed 85 88 W 25 14359 12470 6637 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 83 84 W 25 11990 9662 3829 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 25 9717 8535 2702 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 25 8963 7735 1902 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 25 8579 6764 931 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 25 8189 6544 711 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 25 7793 6386 553 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 W 25 6777 6250 417 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 74 74 W 25 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 73 73 W 25 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 72 72 W 25 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 71 71 W 25 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 18 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 72 72 W 18 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 73 73 W 18 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 75 77 W 18 8189 6544 711 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 77 80 W 18 9343 8149 2316 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 79 85 W 18 12621 10499 4666 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 81 88 W 20 14359 12470 6637 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 83 91 W 20 15358 14192 8359 White 25
1 PM Thu 84 93 W 20 15777 15243 9410 White 27
2 PM Thu 85 93 W 20 15777 15243 9410 White 27
3 PM Thu 85 92 W 20 15567 14726 8893 White 26
4 PM Thu 84 89 W 20 14937 13067 7234 White 23
5 PM Thu 83 86 W 35 13223 11191 5358 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 35 10627 8916 3083 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 35 8579 6764 931 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 35 7793 6386 553 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 35 6777 6250 417 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 35 6555 6114 281 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 73 73 W 31 6392 5978 145 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 W 31 6255 5841 8 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 31 6119 5833 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 70 70 W 31 5982 5833 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 69 69 W 31 5845 5833 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 69 69 W 31 5845 5833 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com