Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 22 22 NE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 NE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 SE 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 SE 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 37 SE 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 SE 5 6998 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 SE 5 8380 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 51 SE 5 9383 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 51 SE 7 9383 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 50 SE 7 9052 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 47 SE 7 8040 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 E 6 6998 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 39 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 W 2 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 W 2 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 W 2 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 NW 2 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 NW 2 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 NW 2 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 SE 5 7696 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 50 SE 5 9052 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 SE 5 9711 8713 242 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 53 NE 6 10536 9043 572 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 51 NE 6 9383 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 8717 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 N 6 8040 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 N 6 6998 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 N 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 N 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 N 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 N 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 NW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 NW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 W 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 W 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 W 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 W 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 W 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 42 W 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 SE 6 7696 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 50 SE 6 9052 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 51 SE 6 9383 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 52 SE 6 9711 8713 242 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 51 SE 6 9383 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 49 SE 6 8717 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 SE 7 8040 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 SE 7 7349 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 SE 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 SE 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 SE 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 SE 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 W 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 W 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 W 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 W 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 W 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 SW 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 45 SW 3 7349 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 S 3 8717 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 S 3 9711 8713 242 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 53 S 3 10536 9043 572 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 53 S 3 10536 9043 572 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 52 S 3 9711 8713 242 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 S 3 9052 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 E 5 8380 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 E 5 6998 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 E 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 E 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 E 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 S 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 SW 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SW 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 SW 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 SW 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 SW 5 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 S 3 7349 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 S 3 8380 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 S 3 9052 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 S 3 9052 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 S 3 8717 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 S 3 8040 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 7349 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 E 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 SE 3 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 44 SE 6 6998 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 48 SE 6 8380 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 48 SE 6 8380 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 48 SE 6 8380 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 SE 6 7349 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 E 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 E 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 E 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 E 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 E 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 E 7 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 6804 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com