Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 35 35 SW 10 7963 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 SW 10 7788 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 SW 10 7963 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 8138 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 37 S 12 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 39 S 12 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 38 39 S 14 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 38 40 S 14 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 37 39 S 14 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 37 38 SW 14 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 37 38 SW 14 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 35 36 SW 14 8138 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 W 13 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 W 13 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 W 13 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 W 13 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 W 13 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 W 13 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 28 28 SW 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 SW 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 SW 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 W 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 W 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 W 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 W 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 10 7684 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NW 10 7963 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 38 NW 10 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 41 NW 10 9416 8486 15 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 41 44 NW 15 11138 9396 925 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 45 48 NW 15 13084 11805 3334 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 46 49 NW 15 13481 12217 3746 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 47 50 N 15 13884 12623 4152 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 48 50 N 15 13884 12623 4152 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 48 50 N 15 13884 12623 4152 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 48 49 NW 14 13481 12217 3746 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 46 46 NW 14 12271 10371 1900 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 39 39 NW 14 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 38 38 NW 14 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 NW 14 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 10 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 NW 10 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 NW 10 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 NW 10 8138 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NW 10 7963 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NW 10 7963 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 NW 12 7963 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NW 12 8138 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 NW 12 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 41 42 NW 12 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 43 45 NW 12 11853 9974 1503 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 44 47 NW 12 12681 11049 2578 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 46 50 N 16 13884 12623 4152 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 48 53 N 16 15143 13805 5334 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 50 55 N 16 15944 14642 6171 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 51 56 N 16 16335 15050 6579 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 52 56 N 16 16335 15050 6579 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 52 55 N 16 15944 14642 6171 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 51 52 N 15 14731 13414 4943 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 15 13481 12217 3746 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 46 46 N 15 12271 10371 1900 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 43 43 N 15 10390 8852 381 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 15 9416 8486 15 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 15 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 40 40 NW 9 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 NW 9 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 40 40 NW 9 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 39 39 NW 9 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 38 38 NW 9 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NW 9 8138 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 6 8138 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NW 6 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 43 44 NW 6 11138 9396 925 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 46 49 NW 6 13481 12217 3746 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 48 52 NW 6 14731 13414 4943 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 50 54 NE 9 15547 14228 5757 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 51 55 NE 9 15944 14642 6171 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 52 56 NE 9 16335 15050 6579 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 52 56 NE 9 16335 15050 6579 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 52 55 NE 9 15944 14642 6171 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 52 54 NE 9 15547 14228 5757 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 50 51 W 9 14312 13021 4550 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 13084 11805 3334 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 9 12271 10371 1900 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 44 44 W 9 11138 9396 925 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 42 42 W 9 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 9 9416 8486 15 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 8 9416 8486 15 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 W 8 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 8 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 8487 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 W 8 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 SW 6 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 SW 6 8668 8471 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 42 42 SW 6 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 45 46 SW 6 12271 10371 1900 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 48 50 SW 6 13884 12623 4152 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 50 54 SW 6 15547 14228 5757 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 52 57 S 10 16720 15450 6979 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 54 59 S 10 17472 16231 7760 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 55 61 S 10 18203 16987 8516 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 56 61 S 10 18203 16987 8516 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 56 60 S 10 17840 16612 8141 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 56 59 S 10 17472 16231 7760 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 54 55 SW 13 15944 14642 6171 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 51 51 SW 13 14312 13021 4550 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 13 13084 11805 3334 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 13 12271 10371 1900 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 13 11138 9396 925 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 43 43 SW 13 10390 8852 381 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 9 10390 8852 381 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 9 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 41 41 W 9 9416 8486 15 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 6 8855 8471 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 6 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 44 44 W 6 11138 9396 925 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 47 48 W 6 13084 11805 3334 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 50 53 W 6 15143 13805 5334 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 52 56 W 6 16335 15050 6579 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 54 59 E 10 17472 16231 7760 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 55 61 E 10 18203 16987 8516 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 56 62 E 10 18590 17357 8886 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 57 62 E 10 18590 17357 8886 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 57 61 E 10 18203 16987 8516 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 57 60 E 10 17840 16612 8141 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 56 57 W 12 16720 15450 6979 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 12 15143 13805 5334 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 12 13884 12623 4152 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 12 12681 11049 2578 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 12 12271 10371 1900 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 12 11853 9974 1503 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 45 45 NW 10 11853 9974 1503 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NW 10 11853 9974 1503 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 44 44 NW 10 11138 9396 925 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 43 43 NW 10 10390 8852 381 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 42 42 NW 10 10010 8666 195 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 41 41 NW 10 9416 8486 15 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com