Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 W 8 5359 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 W 8 8028 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 69 W 8 11543 9864 1393 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 69 74 W 8 13726 11887 3416 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 72 79 W 13 15771 14596 6125 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 74 82 W 13 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 76 85 W 13 16835 16163 7692 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 77 85 W 14 16835 16163 7692 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 77 84 W 14 16484 16021 7550 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 76 81 W 14 16056 15450 6979 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 74 77 W 15 15121 13630 5159 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 71 72 W 15 12556 11524 3053 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 15 11177 8471 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 14 8028 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 14 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 14 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 10 5359 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 10 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 W 10 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 W 10 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 W 10 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 W 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 W 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 W 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 W 7 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 66 W 7 9930 8471 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 67 72 W 7 12556 11524 3053 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 70 76 E 9 14685 13064 4593 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 73 81 E 9 16056 15450 6979 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 75 83 E 9 16341 15879 7408 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 76 84 W 15 16484 16021 7550 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 77 84 W 15 16484 16021 7550 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 76 81 W 15 16056 15450 6979 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 75 77 W 14 15121 13630 5159 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 72 73 W 14 13152 11706 3235 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 14 11543 9864 1393 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 14 9930 8471 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 14 8028 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 14 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 9 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 W 9 5359 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 W 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 3 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 W 3 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 W 3 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 W 3 9930 8471 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 67 71 W 3 11936 11342 2871 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 70 75 S 13 14240 12476 4005 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 73 78 S 13 15548 14156 5685 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 74 80 S 13 15914 15027 6556 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 76 82 S 13 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 77 82 S 13 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 77 80 S 13 15914 15027 6556 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 76 79 SW 12 15771 14596 6125 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 73 74 SW 12 13726 11887 3416 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 69 69 SW 12 11543 9864 1393 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 12 8522 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 12 7522 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 12 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 6 5359 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 W 5 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 5 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 5 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 W 5 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 67 W 5 11177 8471 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 67 71 W 5 11936 11342 2871 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 70 75 SE 12 14240 12476 4005 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 73 79 SE 12 15771 14596 6125 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 76 83 SE 12 16341 15879 7408 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 78 84 SE 12 16484 16021 7550 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 80 85 SE 12 16835 16163 7692 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 80 84 SE 12 16484 16021 7550 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 78 80 SW 12 15914 15027 6556 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 73 74 SW 12 13726 11887 3416 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 12 11360 8519 48 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 63 63 SW 12 7522 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 SW 12 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 12 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 W 8 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 N 6 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 66 N 6 9930 8471 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 67 72 N 6 12556 11524 3053 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 70 75 E 9 14240 12476 4005 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 72 78 E 9 15548 14156 5685 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 74 80 E 9 15914 15027 6556 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 76 82 E 9 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 77 82 E 9 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 77 81 E 9 16056 15450 6979 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 76 78 E 12 15548 14156 5685 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 72 73 E 12 13152 11706 3235 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 67 67 E 12 11177 8471 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 63 63 E 12 7522 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 E 12 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 E 12 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 NE 7 6470 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 NE 7 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NE 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NE 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 W 6 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 67 W 6 11177 8471 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 68 73 W 6 13152 11706 3235 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 71 76 SE 12 14685 13064 4593 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 73 79 SE 12 15771 14596 6125 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 75 82 SE 12 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 76 82 SE 12 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 78 83 SE 12 16341 15879 7408 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 78 82 SE 12 16199 15737 7266 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 76 78 SE 12 15548 14156 5685 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 72 73 SE 12 13152 11706 3235 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 67 67 SE 12 11177 8471 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 63 63 SE 12 7522 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 SE 12 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SE 12 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 S 9 7003 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 9 5923 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 S 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 S 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 9 5007 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com