Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 37 37 NW 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NW 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NW 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NE 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 44 NE 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 50 NE 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 54 SE 8 9147 8471 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 54 59 SE 8 12376 10164 1693 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 56 62 SE 8 13292 12290 3819 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 58 63 SE 12 13456 12903 4432 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 59 63 SE 12 13456 12903 4432 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 59 62 SE 12 13292 12290 3819 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 58 59 SE 10 12376 10164 1693 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 56 56 SE 10 10198 8596 125 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 53 53 SE 10 8602 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 S 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 S 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 S 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 W 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 W 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 SW 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 SW 8 8029 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 57 SW 8 10969 9133 662 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 58 62 SW 21 13292 12290 3819 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 60 65 SW 21 13796 13266 4795 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 61 67 SW 21 14574 13592 5121 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 61 66 SW 25 14155 13429 4958 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 60 64 SW 25 13620 13103 4632 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 59 62 SW 25 13292 12290 3819 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 57 58 SW 25 11692 9655 1184 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 25 9147 8471 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 25 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 SW 25 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 SW 25 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 SW 25 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 W 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 W 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 13 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 W 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 W 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 W 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 W 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 50 W 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 53 NW 17 8602 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 56 NW 17 10198 8596 125 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 52 57 NW 17 10969 9133 662 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 52 56 NW 17 10198 8596 125 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 52 55 NW 17 9678 8471 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 52 54 NW 17 9147 8471 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 51 52 NW 18 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 NW 18 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 45 NW 18 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 NW 18 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NW 18 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NW 18 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 N 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 N 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 N 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 N 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 N 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 N 9 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NW 6 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NW 6 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 NW 6 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 NW 6 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 NW 6 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 49 NW 6 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 54 NE 6 9147 8471 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 52 58 NE 6 11692 9655 1184 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 54 60 NE 6 12964 10907 2436 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 55 60 NE 6 12964 10907 2436 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 57 61 NE 6 13128 11618 3147 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 58 61 NE 6 13128 11618 3147 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 57 58 NE 7 11692 9655 1184 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 53 53 NE 7 8602 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 NE 7 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NE 7 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 7 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 7 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 NW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 NW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 54 NW 5 9147 8471 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 55 59 E 7 12376 10164 1693 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 58 64 E 7 13620 13103 4632 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 59 65 E 7 13796 13266 4795 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 61 66 E 7 14155 13429 4958 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 63 67 E 7 14574 13592 5121 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 64 67 E 7 14574 13592 5121 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 63 64 E 8 13620 13103 4632 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 59 59 E 8 12376 10164 1693 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 53 53 E 8 8602 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 E 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 E 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 E 8 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 SW 5 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 SW 5 12964 10907 2436 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 62 66 S 10 14155 13429 4958 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 65 70 S 10 15775 14490 6019 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 65 71 S 10 16123 14932 6461 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 66 71 S 10 16123 14932 6461 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 66 70 S 10 15775 14490 6019 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 66 68 S 10 15035 13764 5293 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 65 66 SW 14 14155 13429 4958 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 61 61 SW 14 13128 11618 3147 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 14 9678 8471 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 52 52 SW 14 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 SW 14 8029 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SW 14 8029 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 10 8313 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 W 10 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 10 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 W 10 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 W 10 7795 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 10 7795 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com