Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 40 40 W 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 W 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 W 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SW 12 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SW 12 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SW 12 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 47 SW 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 50 SW 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 51 SW 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 51 SW 17 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 49 SW 17 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 47 SW 17 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 SW 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 43 43 SW 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 SW 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 W 14 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 W 14 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 W 14 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 13 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 13 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 N 13 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 N 14 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 N 14 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 N 14 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 31 31 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 31 N 16 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 31 N 16 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 31 31 N 16 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 30 30 N 16 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 30 30 N 16 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 29 29 N 16 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 29 29 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 28 28 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 27 27 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 27 27 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 27 N 15 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 NW 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 NW 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 NW 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 NW 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NW 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 NW 10 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 NW 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 NW 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 NW 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 NW 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 27 NW 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 NW 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 32 N 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 33 34 N 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 34 35 N 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 34 35 N 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 34 34 N 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 33 33 N 8 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 31 31 NE 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 NE 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 NE 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 27 27 NE 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 NE 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 NE 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 NE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 NE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 NE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 NE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 NE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 NE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 SE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 SE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 SE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 SE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 SE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 29 SE 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 32 33 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 35 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 35 37 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 36 37 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 36 37 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 36 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 32 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 29 29 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 26 26 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 25 25 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 25 25 SE 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 25 25 SE 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 25 25 SE 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 SE 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 SE 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 SE 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 SE 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 24 S 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 S 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 S 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 S 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 S 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 S 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 34 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 36 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 39 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 38 39 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 41 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 29 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 30 E 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 SW 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 SW 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 SW 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 SW 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 SW 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 SW 3 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 W 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 W 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 W 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 W 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 W 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 35 W 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 39 NW 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 41 NW 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 40 NW 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 38 39 NW 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 39 40 NW 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 39 39 NW 6 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 38 N 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 35 35 N 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 N 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 N 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 N 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 N 5 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 SW 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 SW 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 SW 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 SW 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 SW 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 SW 7 7165 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com