Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 34 34 SW 15 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 SW 13 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 35 SW 13 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 39 SW 13 9690 8585 114 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 40 43 S 16 10451 9780 1309 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 42 46 S 16 11759 10432 1961 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 43 47 S 16 12383 10661 2190 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 43 47 SW 20 12383 10661 2190 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 43 46 SW 20 11759 10432 1961 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 43 45 SW 20 11104 10163 1692 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 42 42 SW 17 10179 9685 1214 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 41 41 SW 17 9865 9588 1117 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 39 39 SW 17 9690 8585 114 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 37 37 SW 16 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 SW 16 8591 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 SW 16 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 SW 16 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 SW 16 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 SW 16 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 SW 18 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 SW 18 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 SW 18 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 S 18 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 S 18 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 S 18 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 S 17 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 S 17 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 35 35 S 17 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 37 SW 22 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 37 SW 22 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 38 SW 22 9592 8471 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 38 38 SW 24 9592 8471 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 38 38 SW 24 9592 8471 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 37 37 SW 24 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 36 S 24 8591 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 S 24 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 S 24 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 S 24 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 S 24 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 S 24 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 SW 17 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 SW 17 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 SW 17 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 SW 17 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 SW 17 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 SW 17 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 24 24 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 26 27 SW 15 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 32 SW 15 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 32 35 SW 17 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 33 37 SW 17 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 33 37 SW 17 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 32 36 SW 17 8591 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 32 35 SW 17 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 34 SW 17 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 31 32 W 16 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 W 16 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 W 16 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 W 16 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 W 16 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 W 16 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 NW 7 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 NW 7 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 23 23 NW 7 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 23 23 NW 7 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 22 22 NW 7 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 22 22 NW 7 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 22 22 NW 8 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 22 22 NW 8 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 NW 8 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 NW 8 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 27 NW 8 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 29 31 NW 8 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 33 37 NW 8 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 36 41 NW 8 9865 9588 1117 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 38 43 NW 8 10451 9780 1309 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 40 45 NW 8 11104 10163 1692 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 40 44 NW 8 10675 9861 1390 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 39 41 NW 8 9865 9588 1117 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 38 39 NW 10 9690 8585 114 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 36 36 NW 10 8591 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 NW 10 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 NW 10 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 NW 10 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 NW 10 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 27 27 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 24 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 23 23 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 25 25 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 29 N 9 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 33 N 9 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 34 37 N 7 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 41 N 7 9865 9588 1117 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 39 43 N 7 10451 9780 1309 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 40 44 N 7 10675 9861 1390 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 40 43 N 7 10451 9780 1309 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 40 42 N 7 10179 9685 1214 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 39 40 N 9 9784 9130 659 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 37 37 N 9 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 35 35 N 9 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 N 9 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 N 9 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 N 9 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 5289 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 34 NW 6 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 38 NW 6 9592 8471 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 39 43 W 6 10451 9780 1309 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 42 47 W 6 12383 10661 2190 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 45 50 W 6 13290 12303 3832 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 46 51 W 6 13588 12644 4173 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 46 50 W 6 13290 12303 3832 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 45 47 W 6 12383 10661 2190 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 43 43 W 7 10451 9780 1309 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 41 41 W 7 9865 9588 1117 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 39 39 W 7 9690 8585 114 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 38 38 W 7 9592 8471 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 37 37 W 7 9145 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 7 8591 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 SW 8 8019 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 SW 8 7426 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 SW 8 6811 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SW 8 6170 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 SW 8 5499 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 SW 8 5289 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com