Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 31 31 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 SW 5 8853 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 SW 5 11209 9526 1055 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 54 56 SW 5 12117 11184 2713 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 54 55 SW 6 11746 10915 2444 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 53 54 SW 6 11478 10180 1709 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 50 50 SW 6 9553 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 SW 9 7326 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 SW 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 SW 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 SW 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 SW 10 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 SW 10 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SW 10 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 SW 10 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 SW 10 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 SW 10 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 SW 12 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 SW 12 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 SW 12 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 W 12 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 W 12 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 51 W 9 10219 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 54 W 9 11478 10180 1709 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 56 56 W 9 12117 11184 2713 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 12117 11184 2713 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 11746 10915 2444 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 10938 8841 370 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 9553 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 8114 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 W 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 W 8 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 9553 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 SW 5 12926 11451 2980 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 60 61 SW 5 15677 13552 5081 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 62 63 SW 5 16857 14903 6432 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 63 64 SW 5 17413 15527 7056 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 62 63 SW 5 16857 14903 6432 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 61 61 SW 5 15677 13552 5081 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 58 58 W 6 13678 11717 3246 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 11478 10180 1709 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 10219 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 8114 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 W 6 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 W 6 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 SW 3 9553 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 S 3 12117 11184 2713 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 59 61 S 3 15677 13552 5081 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 61 63 S 3 16857 14903 6432 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 62 63 S 3 16857 14903 6432 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 62 63 S 3 16857 14903 6432 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 60 60 S 3 15046 12811 4340 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 13678 11717 3246 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 54 54 SW 3 11478 10180 1709 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 51 51 SW 3 10219 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SW 3 8114 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 SW 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 S 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 S 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 S 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 S 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 S 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 S 3 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 SW 5 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 SW 5 8114 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 SW 5 11746 10915 2444 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 60 61 SW 6 15677 13552 5081 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 63 64 SW 6 17413 15527 7056 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 64 65 SW 6 17949 16124 7653 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 64 65 SW 6 17949 16124 7653 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 63 64 SW 6 17413 15527 7056 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 62 62 SW 6 16279 14247 5776 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 60 60 SW 6 15046 12811 4340 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 57 57 SW 6 12926 11451 2980 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 6 11209 9526 1055 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 49 49 SW 6 8853 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 6 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 SW 6 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 SW 7 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 51 W 9 10219 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 W 8 12926 11451 2980 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 58 59 W 8 14382 12015 3544 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 59 60 W 8 15046 12811 4340 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 59 60 W 8 15046 12811 4340 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 58 59 W 8 14382 12015 3544 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 12117 11184 2713 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 54 54 SW 9 11478 10180 1709 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 51 51 SW 9 10219 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 8114 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SW 9 7073 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com