Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 45 45 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 W 5 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 W 5 9740 8471 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 59 62 W 5 11347 10377 1906 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 62 67 SE 7 13919 12353 3882 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 64 70 SE 7 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 66 72 SE 7 16130 14760 6289 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 67 73 S 10 16510 15209 6738 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 68 72 S 10 16130 14760 6289 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 68 71 S 10 15743 14302 5831 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 67 68 SW 12 14393 12859 4388 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 64 64 SW 12 12420 10829 2358 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 60 60 SW 12 10620 9942 1471 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 9740 8471 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 9 8983 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 9 8314 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 7611 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 7 7611 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 W 7 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 6 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 W 6 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 7611 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 W 6 9953 8969 498 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 59 62 W 6 11347 10377 1906 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 62 67 NE 7 13919 12353 3882 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 64 70 NE 7 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 65 71 NE 7 15743 14302 5831 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 66 72 S 9 16130 14760 6289 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 67 71 S 9 15743 14302 5831 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 67 70 S 9 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 66 67 SW 9 13919 12353 3882 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 64 64 SW 9 12420 10829 2358 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 60 60 SW 9 10620 9942 1471 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 57 57 SW 9 9953 8969 498 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 55 55 SW 9 9527 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 8314 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 7611 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 7 7611 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 7 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 7 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 W 6 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 W 6 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 W 6 8314 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 W 6 9953 8969 498 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 60 63 W 6 11892 10603 2132 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 63 68 NW 9 14393 12859 4388 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 65 71 NW 9 15743 14302 5831 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 66 72 NW 9 16130 14760 6289 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 66 72 NW 9 16130 14760 6289 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 67 71 NW 9 15743 14302 5831 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 67 70 NW 9 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 65 66 W 13 13433 11832 3361 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 11347 10377 1906 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 13 10165 9519 1048 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 55 55 W 13 9527 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 13 8314 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 13 7611 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 7 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 7 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 W 7 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 57 W 7 9953 8969 498 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 57 62 NW 6 11347 10377 1906 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 60 66 NW 6 13433 11832 3361 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 63 69 NW 6 14857 13352 4881 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 64 70 NW 6 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 65 69 NW 6 14857 13352 4881 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 65 68 NW 6 14393 12859 4388 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 63 64 N 7 12420 10829 2358 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 59 59 N 7 10392 9731 1260 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 54 54 N 7 8983 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 N 7 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 N 7 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 N 7 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 3 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NE 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 NE 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 NE 3 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 S 2 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 S 2 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 S 2 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 S 2 8314 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 59 S 2 10392 9731 1260 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 59 64 S 7 12420 10829 2358 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 62 68 S 7 14393 12859 4388 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 64 70 S 7 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 66 72 S 7 16130 14760 6289 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 67 71 S 7 15743 14302 5831 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 67 70 S 7 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 65 66 SW 8 13433 11832 3361 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 8 10847 10152 1681 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 8 9527 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 SW 8 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 8 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 8 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 SW 7 6077 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 SW 7 8314 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 59 SW 7 10392 9731 1260 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 65 SW 9 12933 11294 2823 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 63 69 SW 9 14857 13352 4881 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 64 70 SW 9 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 65 70 SW 9 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 66 70 SW 9 15310 13833 5362 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 66 69 SW 9 14857 13352 4881 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 64 65 SW 12 12933 11294 2823 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 60 60 SW 12 10620 9942 1471 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 9527 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 SW 12 6868 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 SW 12 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 SW 12 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SW 7 5902 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com