Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 34 34 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 48 S 6 8692 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 53 S 6 11807 9756 1285 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 55 56 S 6 13741 11727 3256 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 56 57 S 6 14320 12416 3945 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 55 56 S 6 13741 11727 3256 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 53 53 S 6 11807 9756 1285 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 50 50 SW 8 9780 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 SW 8 8692 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 SW 8 6921 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 SW 8 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SW 8 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 SW 8 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 SW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 SW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 SW 18 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 18 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SW 18 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 SW 21 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 SW 21 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 SW 21 6921 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 50 SW 22 9780 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 54 SW 22 12506 10269 1798 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 54 55 SW 22 13137 10997 2526 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 53 54 SW 25 12506 10269 1798 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 51 51 SW 25 10301 8685 214 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 48 SW 25 8692 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 45 SW 29 6921 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 43 SW 29 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 SW 29 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 SW 29 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 SW 29 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 SW 29 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 SW 28 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 SW 28 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 SW 28 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 SW 28 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 SW 28 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SW 28 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 SW 22 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 SW 22 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 SW 22 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 SW 22 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 SW 22 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 31 SW 22 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 33 33 SW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 34 SW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 34 34 SW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 33 33 SW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 31 31 SW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 28 28 SW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 26 26 W 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 24 24 W 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 22 22 W 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 20 20 W 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 20 20 W 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 19 19 W 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 19 19 NW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 19 19 NW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 19 19 NW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 19 19 NW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 19 19 NW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 19 19 NW 16 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 18 18 NW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 18 18 NW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 18 18 NW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 18 NW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 NW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 20 20 NW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 22 23 NW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 25 26 NW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 28 29 NW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 31 NW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 30 31 NW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 29 NW 14 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 27 27 NW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 26 26 NW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 25 25 NW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 25 25 NW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 24 24 NW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 24 24 NW 17 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 W 5 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 23 23 W 5 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 W 5 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 22 22 W 5 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 23 23 W 5 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 W 5 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 34 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 37 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 37 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 36 37 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 36 36 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 35 35 SW 7 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 35 35 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 31 31 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 SW 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 SW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 SW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 SW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 SW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 SW 10 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 SW 13 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 41 SW 13 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 42 SW 13 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 40 40 SW 13 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 40 40 SW 13 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 40 SW 13 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 39 W 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 36 36 W 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 W 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 W 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 W 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 W 12 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 W 6 6394 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com