Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 NW 5 6864 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NW 5 8330 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 NW 5 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 67 69 NW 5 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 70 73 NW 5 15713 14191 5720 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 73 75 NE 6 17042 15167 6696 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 75 77 NE 6 17810 16041 7570 White 15
1 PM Sun 75 77 NE 6 17810 16041 7570 White 15
2 PM Sun 75 77 E 6 17810 16041 7570 White 15
3 PM Sun 74 76 E 6 17599 15608 7137 White 14
4 PM Sun 73 74 E 6 16338 14686 6215 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 14788 13158 4687 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 8 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 63 63 NW 8 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 8 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 NW 6 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 NW 6 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 NW 6 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 NW 3 8330 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NW 3 7975 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 NW 3 7615 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 W 5 7615 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 W 5 7975 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 64 W 5 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 67 69 W 5 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 71 74 W 5 16338 14686 6215 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 74 76 E 8 17599 15608 7137 White 14
12 Noon Mon 76 79 E 8 18228 17508 9037 White 17
1 PM Mon 77 80 E 8 18436 18021 9550 White 18
2 PM Mon 77 80 E 8 18436 18021 9550 White 18
3 PM Mon 76 79 E 8 18228 17508 9037 White 17
4 PM Mon 75 77 E 8 17810 16041 7570 White 15
5 PM Mon 73 74 W 9 16338 14686 6215 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 9 14788 13158 4687 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 64 64 W 9 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 3 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NW 3 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 62 62 NW 3 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 NW 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 S 3 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 S 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 S 3 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 67 68 S 3 13242 11480 3009 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 70 72 S 3 15267 13682 5211 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 74 77 S 3 17810 16041 7570 White 15
11 AM Tue 76 80 SE 5 18436 18021 9550 White 18
12 Noon Tue 78 82 SE 5 18868 18868 10397 White 20
1 PM Tue 78 83 SE 5 19088 19088 10617 White 21
2 PM Tue 78 82 SE 5 18868 18868 10397 White 20
3 PM Tue 78 82 SE 5 18868 18868 10397 White 20
4 PM Tue 78 81 SE 5 18647 18466 9995 White 19
5 PM Tue 76 78 W 7 18019 16849 8378 White 16
6 PM Tue 74 75 W 7 17042 15167 6696 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 7 14788 13158 4687 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 69 69 W 7 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 7 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 7 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 65 65 SW 3 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 SW 3 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 62 62 SW 3 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 SW 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 2 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 2 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 2 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 67 68 SW 2 13242 11480 3009 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 71 73 SW 2 15713 14191 5720 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 75 79 SW 2 18228 17508 9037 White 17
11 AM Wed 78 83 SE 6 19088 19088 10617 White 21
12 Noon Wed 79 85 SE 6 19516 19516 11045 White 23
1 PM Wed 80 86 SE 6 19721 19721 11250 White 24
2 PM Wed 80 86 SE 6 19721 19721 11250 White 24
3 PM Wed 80 85 SE 6 19516 19516 11045 White 23
4 PM Wed 80 83 SE 6 19088 19088 10617 White 21
5 PM Wed 79 81 W 8 18647 18466 9995 White 19
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 8 17810 16041 7570 White 15
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 15267 13682 5211 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 8 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 12128 10043 1572 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 3 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 3 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 3 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 3 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 3 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 10889 9022 551 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 67 68 SW 3 13242 11480 3009 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 72 74 SW 3 16338 14686 6215 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 76 80 SW 3 18436 18021 9550 White 18
11 AM Thu 80 85 S 10 19516 19516 11045 White 23
12 Noon Thu 82 88 S 10 20125 20125 11654 White 25
1 PM Thu 83 89 S 10 20326 20326 11855 White 26
2 PM Thu 83 89 S 10 20326 20326 11855 White 26
3 PM Thu 83 88 S 10 20125 20125 11654 White 25
4 PM Thu 82 85 S 10 19516 19516 11045 White 23
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 13 19088 19088 10617 White 21
6 PM Thu 78 79 W 13 18228 17508 9037 White 17
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 13 16338 14686 6215 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 13 14287 12618 4147 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 13242 11480 3009 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 13 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 12128 10043 1572 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 5 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 SW 3 9030 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 3 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 SW 3 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 66 67 SW 3 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 70 72 SW 3 15267 13682 5211 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 74 78 SW 3 18019 16849 8378 White 16
11 AM Fri 78 84 S 8 19308 19308 10837 White 22
12 Noon Fri 80 87 S 8 19923 19923 11452 White 25
1 PM Fri 81 89 S 8 20326 20326 11855 White 26
2 PM Fri 81 88 S 8 20125 20125 11654 White 25
3 PM Fri 81 87 S 8 19923 19923 11452 White 25
4 PM Fri 81 85 S 8 19516 19516 11045 White 23
5 PM Fri 79 82 SW 10 18868 18868 10397 White 20
6 PM Fri 76 77 SW 10 17810 16041 7570 White 15
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 10 15267 13682 5211 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 10 13772 12059 3588 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 10 12694 10834 2363 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 10 12128 10043 1572 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 2 11540 9364 893 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SW 2 10095 8678 207 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 9375 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 2 8682 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 2 8330 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 SW 2 8330 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com