Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.705237, -118.670959, 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 11 18 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 N 11 18 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 5 8 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 5 8 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NNW 5 8 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 50 S 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 57 S 6 11 10999 8709 238 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 57 62 S 6 11 14110 12651 4180 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 61 68 S 9 14 16705 15135 6664 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 63 71 S 9 14 20098 16556 8085 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 66 74 S 9 14 21705 19819 11348 White 19
2 PM Wed 67 73 WSW 11 18 21508 19260 10789 White 18
3 PM Wed 66 71 WSW 11 18 20098 16556 8085 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 66 69 WSW 11 18 18866 15491 7020 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 65 67 W 14 24 16156 14775 6304 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 14 24 14484 13487 5016 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 14 24 12765 10037 1566 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 10 16 10073 8523 52 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 10 16 8525 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 NW 10 16 8337 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NW 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 55 WNW 5 9 9302 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 60 WNW 5 9 13532 10918 2447 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 60 65 WNW 5 9 15217 14039 5568 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 63 69 SSW 4 6 18866 15491 7020 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 65 72 SSW 4 6 20776 18234 9763 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 66 73 SSW 4 6 21508 19260 10789 White 18
2 PM Thu 68 74 SW 8 12 21705 19819 11348 White 19
3 PM Thu 68 72 SW 8 12 20776 18234 9763 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 67 70 SW 8 12 19421 16012 7541 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 12 19 16156 14775 6304 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 12 19 14484 13487 5016 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 12 19 12765 10037 1566 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 9 14 10073 8523 52 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 9 14 8525 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 14 8337 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 12 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 W 8 12 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 12 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 6 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 6 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 55 W 4 6 9302 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 61 W 4 6 13802 11823 3352 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 61 66 W 4 6 15586 14409 5938 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 64 71 SSW 6 11 20098 16556 8085 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 66 74 SSW 6 11 21705 19819 11348 White 19
1 PM Fri 67 75 SSW 6 11 21903 20497 12026 White 20
2 PM Fri 67 73 SW 12 19 21508 19260 10789 White 18
3 PM Fri 67 72 SW 12 19 20776 18234 9763 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 66 69 SW 12 19 18866 15491 7020 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 64 66 WSW 17 28 15586 14409 5938 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 17 28 13802 11823 3352 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 17 28 10999 8709 238 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 11 18 8712 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 11 18 8337 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 11 18 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 W 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 W 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 W 5 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 50 WNW 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 54 WNW 5 9 8712 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 58 WNW 5 9 11923 9243 772 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 57 59 N 9 14 12765 10037 1566 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 58 60 N 9 14 13532 10918 2447 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 58 61 N 9 14 13802 11823 3352 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 58 60 S 11 18 13532 10918 2447 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 57 59 S 11 18 12765 10037 1566 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 56 57 S 11 18 10999 8709 238 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 54 54 W 13 21 8712 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 13 21 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 13 21 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 WNW 12 19 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 12 19 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 WNW 12 19 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 W 9 14 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 W 9 14 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 9 14 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 10 17 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 10 17 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 10 17 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 45 NW 6 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 49 NW 6 10 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 52 NW 6 10 8337 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 55 NNE 9 14 9302 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 56 NNE 9 14 10073 8523 52 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 54 57 NNE 9 14 10999 8709 238 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 55 58 NE 9 14 11923 9243 772 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 56 58 NE 9 14 11923 9243 772 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 56 57 NE 9 14 10999 8709 238 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 55 56 NW 11 18 10073 8523 52 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 11 18 8525 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 NW 11 18 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 W 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 16 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 6 11 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 W 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 W 5 9 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 49 WNW 4 6 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 55 WNW 4 6 9302 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 59 WNW 4 6 12765 10037 1566 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 58 63 NW 8 12 14484 13487 5016 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 60 66 NW 8 12 15586 14409 5938 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 61 67 NW 8 12 16156 14775 6304 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 61 66 WNW 9 14 15586 14409 5938 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 61 65 WNW 9 14 15217 14039 5568 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 60 63 WNW 9 14 14484 13487 5016 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 59 60 W 12 19 13532 10918 2447 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 12 19 10999 8709 238 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 12 19 8712 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 14 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 9 14 8166 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 9 14 8166 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com