Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 12 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 N 12 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 N 12 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 N 12 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 36 N 12 8684 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 41 N 12 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 43 47 N 10 11372 10761 2290 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 45 49 N 10 11768 11154 2683 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 47 52 N 10 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 48 52 N 12 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 49 52 N 12 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 49 51 N 12 12151 11549 3078 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 47 48 N 13 11570 10962 2491 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 44 44 N 13 10779 10101 1630 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 41 41 N 13 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 38 38 N 9 9109 8473 2 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 N 9 8684 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 N 9 8474 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 N 7 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 N 7 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 NW 7 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 NW 7 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NW 7 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 NW 7 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 NW 7 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 NW 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NW 7 8684 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 NW 7 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 44 47 NW 7 11372 10761 2290 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 48 52 N 9 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 51 56 N 9 14744 12798 4327 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 53 58 N 9 15904 13986 5515 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 54 59 N 13 16679 14612 6141 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 55 59 N 13 16679 14612 6141 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 55 57 N 13 15352 13406 4935 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 53 54 N 10 13508 12128 3657 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 50 50 N 10 11966 11352 2881 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 10 10977 10321 1850 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 10 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 39 39 N 10 9333 8681 210 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 38 38 N 10 9109 8473 2 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NW 6 8893 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NW 6 8684 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 NW 6 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 NW 6 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 NW 6 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 NW 6 8474 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NW 6 9109 8473 2 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 9658 8889 418 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 9658 8889 418 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 36 37 NW 6 8893 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 34 NW 6 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 30 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 29 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 29 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 29 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 28 32 N 7 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 28 30 N 7 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 30 31 N 12 7999 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 N 12 8893 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 12 11768 11154 2683 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 12 15904 13986 5515 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 58 58 N 12 15904 13986 5515 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 53 53 N 12 12893 11942 3471 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 10779 10101 1630 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 NW 6 8893 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 NW 6 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NW 6 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 NW 6 8054 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NW 6 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 8264 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 N 7 8474 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 9109 8473 2 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 44 N 7 10779 10101 1630 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 50 53 N 7 12893 11942 3471 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 56 60 N 6 16855 15213 6742 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 60 65 N 6 17758 17151 8680 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 61 66 N 6 18041 17325 8854 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 62 67 N 6 18322 17498 9027 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 63 67 N 6 18322 17498 9027 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 63 65 N 6 17758 17151 8680 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 61 62 N 9 17204 16478 8007 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 57 57 N 9 15352 13406 4935 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 9 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 9 11570 10962 2491 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 45 45 N 9 10977 10321 1850 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 9 10558 9634 1163 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 5 10336 9325 854 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 N 5 10336 9325 854 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 41 41 N 5 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 40 40 N 5 9658 8889 418 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 40 40 N 5 9658 8889 418 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 9333 8681 210 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 9333 8681 210 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 9333 8681 210 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 5 9658 8889 418 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 43 43 N 5 10558 9634 1163 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 48 49 N 5 11768 11154 2683 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 54 57 N 5 15352 13406 4935 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 59 63 E 5 17378 16804 8333 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 62 67 E 5 18322 17498 9027 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 63 68 E 5 18599 17671 9200 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 65 70 E 5 19943 18226 9755 White 32
3 PM Wed 66 70 E 5 19943 18226 9755 White 32
4 PM Wed 67 69 E 5 19467 17947 9476 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 66 67 E 8 18322 17498 9027 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 61 61 E 8 17029 15771 7300 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 55 55 E 8 14108 12310 3839 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 50 50 E 8 11966 11352 2881 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 47 47 E 8 11372 10761 2290 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 46 46 E 8 11173 10541 2070 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 45 45 S 5 10977 10321 1850 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 S 5 10977 10321 1850 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 5 10558 9634 1163 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 42 42 S 5 10336 9325 854 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 41 41 S 5 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 41 41 S 5 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 10114 9103 632 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 10336 9325 854 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 11173 10541 2070 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 51 52 E 5 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 57 59 E 5 16679 14612 6141 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 63 67 SE 6 18322 17498 9027 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 66 71 SE 6 20139 18503 10032 White 33
1 PM Thu 67 72 SE 6 20341 18767 10296 White 34
2 PM Thu 68 73 SE 6 20544 19977 11506 White 35
3 PM Thu 69 73 SE 6 20544 19977 11506 White 35
4 PM Thu 69 71 SE 6 20139 18503 10032 White 33
5 PM Thu 67 68 E 7 18599 17671 9200 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 62 62 E 7 17204 16478 8007 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 56 56 E 7 14744 12798 4327 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 52 52 E 7 12334 11746 3275 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 49 49 E 7 11768 11154 2683 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 49 49 E 7 11768 11154 2683 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 48 48 S 5 11570 10962 2491 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 S 5 11372 10761 2290 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 45 45 S 5 10977 10321 1850 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 10558 9634 1163 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 10558 9634 1163 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 42 42 S 5 10336 9325 854 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com