Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 32 32 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 31 31 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 29 29 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 28 28 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 28 28 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 28 28 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 29 29 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 29 29 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 28 28 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 28 28 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 27 27 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 25 25 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 25 25 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 24 24 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 24 24 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 24 24 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 23 23 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 23 23 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 22 22 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 22 22 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 22 22 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 22 22 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 22 22 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 21 21 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 21 21 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 22 22 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 24 24 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 29 30 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 31 32 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 32 33 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 34 35 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 33 34 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 33 33 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 33 33 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 30 30 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 30 30 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 29 29 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 29 29 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 29 29 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 28 28 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 28 28 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 29 29 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 31 31 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 37 37 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 40 41 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 41 42 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 41 42 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 41 42 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 41 42 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 40 40 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 39 39 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 37 37 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 34 34 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 32 32 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 31 31 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 30 30 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 30 30 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 30 30 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 29 29 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 28 28 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 28 28 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 27 27 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 27 27 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 27 27 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 28 28 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 35 35 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 38 38 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 40 41 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 42 43 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 41 42 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 40 40 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 38 38 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 37 37 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 37 37 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 37 37 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 35 35 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 33 33 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 30 30 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 29 29 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 26 26 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 24 24 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 23 23 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 23 23 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 23 23 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 23 23 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 23 23 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 24 25 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 26 27 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 29 31 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 30 31 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 30 31 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 28 28 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 26 26 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 25 25 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 25 25 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 24 24 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 22 22 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 21 21 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 20 20 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 20 20 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 22 22 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 21 21 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 21 21 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 20 20 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 20 20 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 20 20 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 21 21 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 24 24 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 27 27 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 29 30 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 31 33 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 32 34 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 34 36 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 35 36 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 35 35 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 34 34 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 31 31 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 28 28 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 25 25 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 24 24 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 25 25 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 25 25 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 24 24 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 23 23 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 23 23 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 24 24 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 25 25 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com