Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 37 37 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 48 NW 8 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 52 NW 8 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 55 N 9 10953 9810 1339 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 53 58 N 9 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 54 59 N 9 11736 11132 2661 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 55 60 N 13 12001 11327 2856 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 56 60 N 13 12001 11327 2856 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 55 58 N 13 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 54 56 N 13 11150 10072 1601 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 53 54 N 13 10757 9547 1076 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 51 51 N 13 9558 8750 279 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NW 14 9024 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 NW 14 8484 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NW 14 8212 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NW 10 7939 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 10 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 7 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 7 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 7 8484 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 52 W 7 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 58 W 7 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 58 63 W 7 13529 11969 3498 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 61 67 N 8 16135 13967 5496 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 63 71 N 8 21177 16638 8167 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 65 73 N 8 22176 18884 10413 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 66 73 N 10 22176 18884 10413 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 67 73 N 10 22176 18884 10413 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 66 70 N 10 19624 15953 7482 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 65 67 N 10 16135 13967 5496 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 63 64 N 10 14065 12323 3852 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 10 12400 11521 3050 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 10 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 10 11150 10072 1601 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 10 10757 9547 1076 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 6 10087 9283 812 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 6 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 6 9558 8750 279 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 6 9291 8482 11 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 W 6 8212 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 SW 3 8212 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 3 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 3 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 57 SW 3 11346 10741 2270 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 59 62 SW 3 12974 11715 3244 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 63 67 SW 3 16135 13967 5496 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 65 70 S 8 19624 15953 7482 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 67 73 S 8 22176 18884 10413 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 68 74 S 8 22385 20588 12117 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 68 74 S 8 22385 20588 12117 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 69 74 S 8 22385 20588 12117 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 68 71 S 8 21177 16638 8167 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 67 68 SW 8 16826 14481 6010 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 8 14065 12323 3852 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 8 12400 11521 3050 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 8 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 56 56 SW 8 11150 10072 1601 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 55 55 SW 8 10953 9810 1339 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 10757 9547 1076 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 6 10757 9547 1076 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 53 53 W 6 10087 9283 812 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 W 6 9558 8750 279 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 9291 8482 11 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 6 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 SW 7 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SW 7 9024 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 57 SW 7 11346 10741 2270 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 60 63 SW 7 13529 11969 3498 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 64 68 SW 7 16826 14481 6010 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 66 70 S 10 19624 15953 7482 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 67 72 S 10 21967 17285 8814 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 67 72 S 10 21967 17285 8814 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 66 70 S 10 19624 15953 7482 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 65 69 S 10 17760 15224 6753 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 64 66 S 10 15400 13437 4966 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 62 63 SW 18 13529 11969 3498 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 18 11736 11132 2661 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 56 56 SW 18 11150 10072 1601 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 54 54 SW 18 10757 9547 1076 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 53 53 SW 18 10087 9283 812 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 18 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 8 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 8 9291 8482 11 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 8 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 SW 8 8212 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 8 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 8 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 W 6 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 W 6 7939 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 W 6 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 W 6 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 W 6 11150 10072 1601 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 58 62 W 6 12974 11715 3244 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 60 64 S 12 14065 12323 3852 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 61 66 S 12 15400 13437 4966 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 61 66 S 12 15400 13437 4966 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 61 65 S 12 14608 12890 4419 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 60 64 S 12 14065 12323 3852 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 59 61 S 12 12400 11521 3050 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 57 58 SW 20 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 55 55 SW 20 10953 9810 1339 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 52 52 SW 20 9823 9017 546 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 SW 20 9024 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 SW 20 8484 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SW 20 7939 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 NW 8 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NW 8 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NW 6 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NW 6 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 NW 6 7664 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 49 NW 6 9024 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 53 NW 6 10087 9283 812 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 58 NW 6 11541 10937 2466 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 56 61 NW 8 12400 11521 3050 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 58 64 NW 8 14065 12323 3852 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 59 65 NW 8 14608 12890 4419 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 60 65 NW 8 14608 12890 4419 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 61 65 NW 8 14608 12890 4419 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 61 64 NW 8 14065 12323 3852 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 60 62 W 10 12974 11715 3244 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 10 11346 10741 2270 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 10 10757 9547 1076 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 10 9291 8482 11 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 10 8754 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 W 10 8484 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 5 8212 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 N 5 7939 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 5 7592 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 5 7592 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com