Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 19 19 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 18 18 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 19 19 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 21 21 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 27 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 32 34 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 39 42 NE 9 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 43 47 NE 9 11273 9126 187 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 47 51 NE 9 13827 11695 2756 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 48 52 NE 12 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 49 52 NE 12 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 48 49 NE 12 12187 10773 1834 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 45 45 NE 10 10317 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 30 30 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 25 25 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 24 24 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 22 22 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 21 21 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 23 23 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 36 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 43 NE 9 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 48 NE 9 11735 10296 1357 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 47 51 NE 9 13827 11695 2756 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 49 52 NE 9 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 49 51 NE 9 13827 11695 2756 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 49 50 NE 9 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 47 47 NE 8 11273 9126 187 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 42 42 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 37 37 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 26 26 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 NE 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 25 25 NE 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 25 25 NE 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 24 24 NE 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 22 22 NE 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 20 20 NE 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 19 N 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 20 20 N 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 N 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 N 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 N 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 38 N 5 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 44 NE 10 9133 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 49 NE 10 12187 10773 1834 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 48 52 NE 10 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 50 53 NE 10 14731 12848 3909 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 51 53 NE 10 14731 12848 3909 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 51 52 NE 10 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 50 50 NE 8 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 46 46 NE 8 10800 8939 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 42 42 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 NE 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 24 24 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 40 NE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 45 E 6 10317 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 44 48 E 6 11735 10296 1357 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 45 49 E 6 12187 10773 1834 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 46 49 E 6 12187 10773 1834 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 48 50 E 6 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 50 51 E 6 13827 11695 2756 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 49 49 NE 10 12187 10773 1834 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 10317 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 NE 10 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 E 7 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 E 7 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 E 7 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 E 7 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 E 7 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 E 7 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 E 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 E 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 E 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 E 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 E 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 43 E 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 48 E 9 11735 10296 1357 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 47 51 E 9 13827 11695 2756 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 48 52 E 9 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 49 52 E 9 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 50 52 E 9 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 51 52 E 9 14284 12142 3203 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 46 46 E 9 10800 8939 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 41 41 E 9 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 E 9 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 E 9 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 E 9 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 SE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 SE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 SE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 SE 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 42 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 46 SE 6 10800 8939 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 46 48 SE 6 11735 10296 1357 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 47 49 SE 6 12187 10773 1834 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 48 50 SE 6 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 49 50 SE 6 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 49 50 SE 6 13011 11239 2300 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 11735 10296 1357 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 45 45 E 8 10317 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 E 8 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 8668 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com