Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 47 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 53 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 54 57 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 61 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 64 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 65 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 65 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 64 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 62 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 58 59 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 56 56 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 53 53 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 51 51 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 48 48 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 46 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 45 45 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 41 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 43 44 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 45 47 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 47 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 49 55 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 50 57 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 50 57 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 50 56 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 50 55 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 49 52 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 47 49 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 44 44 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 41 41 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 39 39 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 37 37 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 36 36 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 35 35 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 32 32 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 31 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 32 32 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 33 33 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 35 36 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 37 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 40 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 42 46 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 43 48 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 44 49 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 44 49 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 43 47 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 42 45 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 40 41 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 38 38 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 37 37 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 35 35 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 33 33 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 30 30 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 28 28 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 28 28 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 32 32 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 35 35 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 38 40 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 41 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 42 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 43 48 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 43 48 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 42 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 42 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 42 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 42 43 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 40 40 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 38 38 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 29 29 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 29 29 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 30 30 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 38 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 40 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 42 45 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 42 45 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 42 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 41 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 41 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 41 43 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 40 40 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 40 40 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 38 38 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 34 34 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 32 32 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 29 29 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 30 30 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 32 32 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 35 36 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 36 37 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 37 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 37 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 37 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 37 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 39 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 40 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 41 42 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 40 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 36 36 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 35 35 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 34 34 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 33 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 32 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 32 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 30 30 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com