Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 50 E 3 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 55 E 3 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 60 E 3 9089 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 64 SE 5 10493 9314 375 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 61 69 SE 5 12516 11539 2600 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 64 72 SE 5 13276 12488 3549 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 66 73 W 5 13527 12741 3802 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 67 73 W 5 13527 12741 3802 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 66 70 W 5 12771 11979 3040 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 65 68 W 10 12261 11043 2104 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 64 65 W 10 11079 9679 740 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 10 10051 9088 149 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 61 61 NW 8 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 NW 8 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 7 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NE 7 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NE 7 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NW 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 3 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 3 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 SW 3 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 67 SW 3 12004 10466 1527 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 67 72 SW 3 13276 12488 3549 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 70 77 S 9 16709 13945 5006 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 73 81 S 9 20171 17190 8251 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 74 83 S 9 21980 18817 9878 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 75 83 SW 16 21980 18817 9878 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 75 82 SW 16 21128 17835 8896 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 74 79 SW 16 18142 15864 6925 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 72 75 W 16 15164 13242 4303 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 70 71 W 16 13024 12235 3296 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 16 12261 11043 2104 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 16 11079 9679 740 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 16 10493 9314 375 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 16 9687 8939 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 15 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 15 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 15 9089 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 15 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SW 15 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SW 15 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 SW 10 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SW 10 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 10 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 SW 10 10493 9314 375 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 66 69 SW 10 12516 11539 2600 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 69 74 SW 10 14123 12992 4053 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 71 78 SW 15 17360 14975 6036 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 72 80 SW 15 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 73 81 SW 15 20171 17190 8251 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 73 81 SW 15 20171 17190 8251 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 73 79 SW 15 18142 15864 6925 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 71 76 SW 15 16022 13491 4552 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 70 73 W 15 13527 12741 3802 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 67 68 W 15 12261 11043 2104 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 15 11079 9679 740 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 15 9687 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 15 9089 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 15 8685 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 W 5 9089 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 66 W 5 11575 10039 1100 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 66 71 W 5 13024 12235 3296 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 68 75 NW 6 15164 13242 4303 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 70 78 NW 6 17360 14975 6036 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 71 79 NW 6 18142 15864 6925 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 72 80 NW 6 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 72 78 NW 6 17360 14975 6036 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 71 76 NW 6 16022 13491 4552 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 70 73 NW 7 13527 12741 3802 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 67 68 NW 7 12261 11043 2104 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 11079 9679 740 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 62 62 NW 7 9687 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 61 61 NW 7 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 7 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 8685 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 N 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 S 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 S 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 S 5 8483 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 62 S 5 9687 8939 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 64 67 S 5 12004 10466 1527 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 67 72 S 5 13276 12488 3549 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 69 76 SW 6 16022 13491 4552 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 71 79 SW 6 18142 15864 6925 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 72 80 SW 6 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 72 80 SW 6 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 72 79 SW 6 18142 15864 6925 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 72 77 SW 6 16709 13945 5006 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 71 74 NW 9 14123 12992 4053 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 69 70 NW 9 12771 11979 3040 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 66 66 NW 9 11575 10039 1100 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 63 63 NW 9 10051 9088 149 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 61 61 NW 9 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 9 8483 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NE 9 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NE 9 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NE 9 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 9 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 NE 6 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 66 NE 6 11575 10039 1100 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 67 72 NE 6 13276 12488 3549 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 77 SE 6 16709 13945 5006 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 72 80 SE 6 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 72 80 SE 6 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 73 81 SE 6 20171 17190 8251 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 73 80 SE 6 19120 16545 7606 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 73 78 SE 6 17360 14975 6036 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 72 75 W 8 15164 13242 4303 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 70 71 W 8 13024 12235 3296 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 12004 10466 1527 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 11079 9679 740 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 9687 8939 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 9319 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 8887 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 5 8483 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NW 5 8287 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com