Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 23 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 SW 23 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 SW 23 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 SW 22 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 SW 22 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 SW 22 7135 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 45 W 20 8062 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 46 W 20 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 47 W 20 8669 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 8669 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 46 46 W 21 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 W 21 7755 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 SW 12 7446 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 SW 12 7135 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 SW 12 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 SW 10 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 SW 10 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 SW 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 S 10 7135 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 S 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 SW 8 9859 8969 30 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 SW 8 10448 9559 620 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 54 55 SW 8 11250 10141 1202 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 54 55 SW 8 11250 10141 1202 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 53 53 SW 8 10448 9559 620 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 51 SW 8 9859 8969 30 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 SW 9 9268 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 SW 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 SW 9 7755 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 SW 9 7135 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 SW 9 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 SW 9 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SW 8 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 SW 8 8062 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 S 8 9859 8969 30 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 54 S 8 10745 9851 912 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 55 57 S 8 12270 10729 1790 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 56 57 S 8 12270 10729 1790 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 55 56 S 8 11767 10435 1496 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 10448 9559 620 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 50 50 SW 6 9565 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 SW 6 8669 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 SW 6 8062 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 SW 6 7446 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SW 6 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 SW 6 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 S 7 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 S 7 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 S 7 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 S 7 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 S 7 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 SW 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 SW 10 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 SW 10 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 SW 10 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 SW 10 7755 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 SW 10 8970 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 SW 10 10152 9265 326 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 54 SW 10 10745 9851 912 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 54 55 SW 10 11250 10141 1202 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 54 55 SW 10 11250 10141 1202 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 52 52 SW 10 10152 9265 326 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 9565 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 8970 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 8669 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 10 8062 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 SW 10 7755 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 SW 10 7446 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 SW 10 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 SW 10 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 SW 10 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 SW 10 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SW 10 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 SW 10 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 SW 10 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 SW 13 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 SW 13 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SW 13 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 13 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 SW 13 7446 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 SW 13 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 SW 13 9565 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 SW 13 10152 9265 326 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 53 SW 13 10448 9559 620 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 51 52 SW 13 10152 9265 326 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 51 SW 13 9859 8969 30 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 SW 13 8669 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 SW 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 SW 9 7755 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 SW 9 7446 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 SW 9 7135 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SW 9 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 SW 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 S 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 S 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 S 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 S 9 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 S 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 S 9 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 S 12 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 S 12 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 S 12 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 S 12 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 S 12 7135 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 S 12 8062 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 S 18 9268 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 51 S 18 9859 8969 30 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 51 S 18 9859 8969 30 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 S 18 9565 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 48 S 18 8970 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 S 18 8669 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 S 21 8062 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 S 21 7755 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 S 21 7446 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 S 21 6821 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 S 21 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 S 21 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 SW 21 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 SW 21 5886 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 SW 21 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 SW 21 6505 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 SW 21 6187 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 SW 21 5886 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com