Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 8 8 N 9 8465 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 7 7 N 9 8365 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 7 7 N 9 8365 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 8 8 N 9 8465 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 9 9 N 9 8565 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 12 12 N 9 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 14 16 N 8 9268 8967 28 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 16 18 N 8 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 17 20 N 8 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 18 20 N 14 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 18 20 N 14 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 17 18 N 14 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 17 17 NW 8 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 15 15 NW 8 9168 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 14 14 NW 8 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 12 12 W 6 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 11 11 W 6 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 11 11 W 6 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 11 11 NW 5 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 12 12 NW 5 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 13 13 NW 5 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 14 14 W 6 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 14 14 W 6 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 14 14 W 6 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 14 14 W 10 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 13 13 W 10 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 14 14 W 10 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 15 15 SW 10 9168 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 18 18 SW 10 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 22 23 SW 10 10079 9668 729 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 26 27 W 22 10786 10219 1280 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 28 30 W 22 12442 10775 1836 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 29 31 W 22 13121 11004 2065 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 29 31 W 21 13121 11004 2065 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 28 29 W 21 11719 10590 1651 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 26 27 W 21 10786 10219 1280 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 24 24 W 16 10227 9808 869 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 22 22 W 16 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 20 20 W 16 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 18 18 W 16 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 16 16 W 16 9268 8967 28 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 14 14 W 16 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 13 13 N 9 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 12 12 N 9 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 12 12 N 9 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 12 12 N 9 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 13 13 N 9 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 14 14 N 9 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 14 14 W 8 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 13 13 W 8 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 13 13 W 8 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 14 14 W 8 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 18 18 W 8 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 23 24 W 8 10227 9808 869 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 28 30 SW 10 12442 10775 1836 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 31 34 SW 10 14965 13029 4090 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 33 36 SW 10 16073 14268 5329 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 33 36 SW 10 16073 14268 5329 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 32 34 SW 10 14965 13029 4090 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 31 32 SW 10 13765 11651 2712 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 29 29 W 13 11719 10590 1651 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 10600 10074 1135 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 23 23 W 13 10079 9668 729 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 21 21 W 13 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 19 19 W 13 9570 9267 328 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 18 18 W 13 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 18 18 SW 12 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 18 18 SW 12 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 18 18 SW 12 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 18 18 SW 12 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 18 18 SW 12 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 17 17 SW 12 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 17 17 SW 15 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 17 17 SW 15 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 16 16 SW 15 9268 8967 28 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 17 17 SW 15 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 19 19 SW 15 9570 9267 328 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 21 21 SW 15 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 22 22 W 3 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 23 23 W 3 10079 9668 729 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 22 22 W 3 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 21 21 W 3 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 21 21 W 3 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 20 20 W 3 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 20 20 N 16 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 19 19 N 16 9570 9267 328 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 19 19 N 16 9570 9267 328 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 18 18 N 16 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 16 16 N 16 9268 8967 28 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 14 14 N 16 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 12 12 N 8 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 12 12 N 8 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 13 13 N 8 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 13 13 N 8 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 13 13 N 8 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 11 11 N 8 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 10 10 N 8 8666 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 9 9 N 8 8565 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 9 9 N 8 8565 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 10 10 N 8 8666 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 12 12 N 8 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 14 14 N 8 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 16 18 N 6 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 17 19 N 6 9570 9267 328 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 17 20 N 6 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 18 20 N 6 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 18 20 N 6 9671 9367 428 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 18 19 N 6 9570 9267 328 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 18 18 NW 9 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 17 17 NW 9 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 15 15 NW 9 9168 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 13 13 NW 9 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 12 12 NW 9 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 12 12 NW 9 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 12 12 NE 7 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 11 11 NE 7 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 10 10 NE 7 8666 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 10 10 NE 7 8666 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 11 11 NE 7 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 12 12 NE 7 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 12 12 W 8 8866 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 11 11 W 8 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 10 10 W 8 8666 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 11 11 W 8 8766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 13 13 W 8 8967 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 17 17 W 8 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 20 21 W 9 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 21 22 W 9 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 21 22 W 9 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 20 21 W 9 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 21 22 W 9 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 22 22 W 9 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 22 22 W 9 9947 9568 629 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 21 21 W 9 9812 9468 529 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 18 18 W 9 9469 9167 228 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 17 17 W 9 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 16 16 W 9 9268 8967 28 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 17 17 W 9 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 17 17 SW 7 9369 9067 128 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 16 16 SW 7 9268 8967 28 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 14 14 SW 7 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 14 14 SW 7 9067 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 15 15 SW 7 9168 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 16 16 SW 7 9268 8967 28 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com