Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 27 27 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 SW 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SW 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 38 SW 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 41 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 45 W 12 9041 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 44 47 W 12 10153 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 47 W 14 10153 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 45 47 W 14 10153 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 45 W 14 9041 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 W 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SW 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SW 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 SW 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 W 16 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 W 16 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 W 16 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 W 16 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 W 16 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 41 W 16 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 45 W 20 9041 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 44 47 W 20 10153 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 48 W 20 10500 9039 100 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 45 48 W 23 10500 9039 100 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 44 46 W 23 9625 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 44 W 23 8435 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 21 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 W 21 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 W 21 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 W 20 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 W 20 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 W 20 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 W 10 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 43 N 14 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 46 N 14 9625 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 48 N 14 10500 9039 100 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 45 48 N 14 10500 9039 100 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 46 48 N 14 10500 9039 100 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 46 47 N 14 10153 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 9041 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 N 13 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 N 13 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 N 13 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 N 13 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 13 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NW 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 NW 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 46 NW 8 9625 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 50 NE 8 11036 10140 1201 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 48 52 NE 8 11219 10823 1884 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 48 52 NE 8 11219 10823 1884 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 48 51 NE 8 11127 10483 1544 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 51 53 NE 8 11311 11029 2090 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 53 54 NE 8 11403 11121 2182 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 53 53 NE 7 11311 11029 2090 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 10843 9613 674 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 44 44 NE 7 8435 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 NE 7 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 NE 7 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NE 7 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 SW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 SW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 SW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 SW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 SW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 SW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 W 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 W 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 W 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 W 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 W 8 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 49 W 8 10843 9613 674 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 52 55 W 6 11495 11213 2274 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 54 58 W 6 11769 11487 2548 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 53 57 W 6 11678 11396 2457 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 53 56 W 6 11587 11304 2365 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 55 57 W 6 11678 11396 2457 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 57 58 W 6 11769 11487 2548 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 57 57 NW 6 11678 11396 2457 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 53 53 NW 6 11311 11029 2090 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 48 48 NW 6 10500 9039 100 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 44 44 NW 6 8435 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NW 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 NW 6 8435 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 W 5 8435 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 W 5 8435 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 W 5 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 47 W 5 10153 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 51 NE 5 11127 10483 1544 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 49 53 NE 5 11311 11029 2090 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 48 52 NE 5 11219 10823 1884 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 49 52 NE 5 11219 10823 1884 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 50 52 NE 5 11219 10823 1884 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 52 53 NE 5 11311 11029 2090 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 9 11219 10823 1884 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 9 10843 9613 674 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 45 45 N 9 9041 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 N 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 N 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 N 9 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 N 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 N 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 6 8366 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com