Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 30 30 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 36 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 42 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 47 NE 6 9053 8973 34 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 52 NE 6 10581 9623 684 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 50 55 NE 6 11508 10566 1627 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 51 55 NE 6 11508 10566 1627 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 51 54 NE 6 11202 10255 1316 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 50 52 NE 6 10581 9623 684 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 48 49 NE 10 9630 8973 34 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 NE 10 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 NE 10 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 N 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 40 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 46 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 53 NE 7 10893 9941 1002 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 53 58 NE 7 12414 11484 2545 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 54 59 NE 7 12711 11785 2846 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 55 59 NE 8 12711 11785 2846 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 54 57 NE 8 12114 11180 2241 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 53 55 NE 8 11508 10566 1627 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 51 52 NE 8 10581 9623 684 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 48 48 NE 8 9339 8973 34 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 NE 8 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 NE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 NE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 50 NE 3 9950 9052 113 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 53 57 E 6 12114 11180 2241 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 57 61 E 6 13964 12381 3442 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 60 65 E 6 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 61 65 E 6 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 61 64 E 6 16296 13795 4856 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 60 62 E 6 15016 12676 3737 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 58 59 NE 7 12711 11785 2846 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 54 54 NE 7 11202 10255 1316 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 50 50 NE 7 9950 9052 113 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 47 47 NE 7 9053 8973 34 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 NE 7 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 7 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 SE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 SE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 S 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 S 3 9630 8973 34 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 S 3 11812 10874 1935 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 59 63 S 5 15837 12969 4030 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 60 65 S 5 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 61 66 S 5 17182 15734 6795 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 61 66 S 5 17182 15734 6795 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 62 65 S 5 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 63 65 S 5 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 62 63 NW 5 15837 12969 4030 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 5 12414 11484 2545 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 53 53 NW 5 10893 9941 1002 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 48 48 NW 5 9339 8973 34 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 SW 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 SW 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SW 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SW 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 SW 5 10268 9335 396 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 56 58 SW 5 12414 11484 2545 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 60 63 S 3 15837 12969 4030 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 62 66 S 3 17182 15734 6795 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 63 67 S 3 17612 16188 7249 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 63 67 S 3 17612 16188 7249 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 63 66 S 3 17182 15734 6795 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 63 65 S 3 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 13964 12381 3442 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 57 57 NW 6 12114 11180 2241 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 52 52 NW 6 10581 9623 684 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 48 48 NW 6 9339 8973 34 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NW 6 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NW 6 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 E 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 E 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 E 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 W 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 W 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 W 3 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 W 3 10268 9335 396 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 57 59 W 3 12711 11785 2846 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 62 65 W 5 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 63 67 W 5 17612 16188 7249 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 62 66 W 5 17182 15734 6795 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 62 66 W 5 17182 15734 6795 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 62 65 W 5 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 63 65 W 5 16744 14806 5867 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 62 63 N 7 15837 12969 4030 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 12414 11484 2545 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 7 10893 9941 1002 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 7 9950 9052 113 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 49 49 N 7 9630 8973 34 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 N 7 9630 8973 34 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 9950 9052 113 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NE 5 9053 8973 34 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 8973 8973 34 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com