Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 16 16 SW 29 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 17 17 SW 29 10663 9820 881 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 15 15 SW 29 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 16 16 SW 29 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 16 16 SW 29 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 15 15 SW 29 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 15 15 SW 21 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 15 15 SW 21 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 15 15 SW 21 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 15 15 SW 21 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 14 14 SW 21 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 14 14 SW 21 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 14 14 W 20 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 14 14 W 20 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 14 14 W 20 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 14 14 W 17 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 13 13 W 17 9481 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 13 13 W 17 9481 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 13 13 SW 13 9481 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 12 12 SW 13 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 11 11 SW 13 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 10 10 SW 14 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 10 10 SW 14 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 9 9 SW 14 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 9 9 SW 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 10 10 SW 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 11 11 SW 12 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 11 11 SW 12 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 11 11 SW 12 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 11 11 SW 12 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 10 10 N 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 10 10 N 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 10 10 N 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 10 10 N 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 10 10 N 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 10 10 N 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 10 10 N 13 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 11 11 N 13 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 11 11 N 13 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 11 11 N 13 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 10 10 N 13 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 9 9 N 13 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 6 6 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 6 6 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 6 6 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 7 8 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 8 9 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 10 12 N 9 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 12 13 N 9 9481 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 13 14 N 9 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 14 14 N 9 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 14 14 N 10 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 12 12 N 10 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 10 10 N 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 8 8 N 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 7 7 N 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 6 6 N 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 5 5 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 4 4 N 9 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 4 4 N 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 5 5 N 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 5 5 N 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 7 7 N 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 9 9 N 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 11 12 N 7 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 13 15 NE 7 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 14 16 NE 7 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 14 16 NE 7 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 15 17 NE 7 10663 9820 881 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 17 19 NE 7 11207 10376 1437 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 19 20 NE 7 11476 10648 1709 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 18 18 N 6 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 16 16 N 6 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 12 12 N 6 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 9 9 N 6 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 8 8 N 6 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 8 8 N 6 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 9 9 W 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 9 9 W 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 9 9 W 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 9 9 W 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 10 10 W 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 11 11 W 8 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 11 11 W 7 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 11 11 W 7 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 10 10 W 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 10 10 W 7 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 12 12 W 7 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 14 14 W 7 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 16 17 W 7 10663 9820 881 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 17 18 W 7 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 17 18 W 7 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 17 18 W 7 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 18 19 W 7 11207 10376 1437 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 18 18 W 7 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 19 19 W 8 11207 10376 1437 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 18 18 W 8 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 18 18 W 8 10936 10103 1164 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 16 16 W 8 10389 9475 536 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 14 14 W 8 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 12 12 W 8 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 11 11 SW 9 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 12 12 SW 9 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 14 14 SW 9 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 15 15 SW 9 10114 9126 187 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 14 14 SW 9 9830 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 11 11 SW 9 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 10 10 SW 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 11 11 SW 8 8771 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 12 12 SW 8 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 13 13 SW 8 9481 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 12 12 SW 8 9128 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 9 9 SW 8 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 6 6 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 6 7 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 7 8 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 8 9 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 9 10 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 9 9 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 10 10 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 10 10 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 10 10 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 10 10 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 8 8 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 7 7 NE 10 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 6 6 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 8 8 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 8 8 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 7 7 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 5 5 N 12 8652 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com