Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 40 40 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 40 40 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 41 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 43 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 45 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 48 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 55 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 59 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 55 61 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 57 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 57 60 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 55 56 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 44 45 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 46 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 52 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 50 55 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 51 57 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 53 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 54 60 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 60 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 58 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 55 57 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 45 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 46 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 52 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 50 56 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 51 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 52 59 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 53 60 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 54 59 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 54 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 53 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 51 51 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 49 49 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 47 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 41 41 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 40 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 39 39 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 38 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 42 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 44 47 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 46 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 46 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 46 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 47 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 48 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 49 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 49 50 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 40 40 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 40 40 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 41 41 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 38 38 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 37 37 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 37 37 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 38 38 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 43 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 43 48 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 42 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 42 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 42 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 43 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 43 44 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 41 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 40 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 37 37 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 37 37 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 36 36 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 36 36 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 35 35 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 35 35 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 35 35 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 35 35 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 35 35 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 36 37 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 39 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 39 43 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 40 45 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 40 46 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 40 46 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 39 44 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 39 43 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 40 43 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 39 40 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 38 38 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 36 36 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 35 35 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 34 34 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 33 33 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 33 33 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 32 32 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 31 31 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 30 30 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 29 29 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com