Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 S 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 S 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 S 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 S 2 11413 9196 257 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 63 67 S 2 14186 13015 4076 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 67 72 SE 3 16109 14898 5959 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 71 78 SE 3 17426 17075 8136 White 19
1 PM Sat 73 80 SE 3 17852 17374 8435 White 21
2 PM Sat 74 81 E 5 18065 17523 8584 White 22
3 PM Sat 73 79 E 5 17640 17224 8285 White 20
4 PM Sat 72 76 E 5 16995 16389 7450 White 17
5 PM Sat 70 72 NW 6 16109 14898 5959 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 67 68 NW 6 14582 13317 4378 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 64 64 NW 6 13045 11362 2423 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 61 61 N 7 11413 9196 257 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 9205 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 N 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 S 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 S 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 3 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 S 3 7710 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 S 3 13045 11362 2423 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 66 70 S 3 15356 14120 5181 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 75 S 8 16779 16024 7085 White 16
12 Noon Sun 73 79 S 8 17640 17224 8285 White 20
1 PM Sun 75 82 S 8 18281 17660 8721 White 23
2 PM Sun 76 83 SW 7 18498 17796 8857 White 24
3 PM Sun 75 80 SW 7 17852 17374 8435 White 21
4 PM Sun 73 77 SW 7 17211 16749 7810 White 18
5 PM Sun 70 72 SW 12 16109 14898 5959 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 68 69 SW 12 14972 13722 4783 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 65 65 SW 12 13374 12017 3078 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 61 61 SW 12 11413 9196 257 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 58 58 SW 12 9205 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 12 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 9 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 9 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 SW 9 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 SW 7 12079 10065 1126 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 65 69 SW 7 14972 13722 4783 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 69 74 SW 14 16562 15654 6715 White 15
12 Noon Mon 72 78 SW 14 17426 17075 8136 White 19
1 PM Mon 74 81 SW 14 18065 17523 8584 White 22
2 PM Mon 74 80 SW 14 17852 17374 8435 White 21
3 PM Mon 73 78 SW 14 17426 17075 8136 White 19
4 PM Mon 71 75 SW 14 16779 16024 7085 White 16
5 PM Mon 69 71 SW 15 15735 14512 5573 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 66 67 SW 15 14186 13015 4076 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 15 12079 10065 1126 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 59 59 SW 15 10084 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 15 7710 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SW 15 5521 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SW 7 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SW 7 7710 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 64 SW 7 13045 11362 2423 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 67 71 SW 7 15735 14512 5573 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 70 75 S 9 16779 16024 7085 White 16
12 Noon Tue 72 78 S 9 17426 17075 8136 White 19
1 PM Tue 72 79 S 9 17640 17224 8285 White 20
2 PM Tue 72 79 S 9 17640 17224 8285 White 20
3 PM Tue 71 76 S 9 16995 16389 7450 White 17
4 PM Tue 70 74 S 9 16562 15654 6715 White 15
5 PM Tue 68 70 SW 14 15356 14120 5181 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 66 67 SW 14 14186 13015 4076 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 14 12714 10640 1701 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 60 60 SW 14 10679 8939 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 58 58 SW 14 9205 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 SW 14 7710 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SW 8 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 7710 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 SW 6 13045 11362 2423 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 66 69 SW 6 14972 13722 4783 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 70 75 S 8 16779 16024 7085 White 16
12 Noon Wed 71 77 S 8 17211 16749 7810 White 18
1 PM Wed 71 77 S 8 17211 16749 7810 White 18
2 PM Wed 71 77 S 8 17211 16749 7810 White 18
3 PM Wed 70 75 S 8 16779 16024 7085 White 16
4 PM Wed 69 73 S 8 16345 15279 6340 White 14
5 PM Wed 68 70 SW 12 15356 14120 5181 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 65 66 SW 12 13783 12643 3704 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 62 62 SW 12 12079 10065 1126 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 59 59 SW 12 10084 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 12 9205 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 12 5521 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 6 5521 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 SW 6 12714 10640 1701 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 65 68 SW 6 14582 13317 4378 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 69 74 SW 8 16562 15654 6715 White 15
12 Noon Thu 71 77 SW 8 17211 16749 7810 White 18
1 PM Thu 71 77 SW 8 17211 16749 7810 White 18
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 8 17211 16749 7810 White 18
3 PM Thu 70 75 SW 8 16779 16024 7085 White 16
4 PM Thu 70 74 SW 8 16562 15654 6715 White 15
5 PM Thu 68 70 SW 12 15356 14120 5181 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 12 13374 12017 3078 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 61 61 SW 12 11413 9196 257 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 12 9205 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 12 7710 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 SW 12 5521 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 SW 6 5092 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com