Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 48 48 SW 3 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 SW 3 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SW 3 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 54 SE 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 59 SE 5 9671 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 63 SE 5 12749 10563 1624 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 60 65 S 8 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 61 66 S 8 14597 12671 3732 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 62 68 S 8 15716 13911 4972 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 63 68 W 13 15716 13911 4972 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 63 67 W 13 15166 13304 4365 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 63 66 W 13 14597 12671 3732 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 62 63 W 13 12749 10563 1624 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 13 10602 8939 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 8867 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 10 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 7 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 W 7 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 W 7 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 W 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 N 5 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 N 5 9272 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 62 N 5 12074 9662 723 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 60 63 NE 8 12749 10563 1624 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 61 64 NE 8 13392 11307 2368 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 62 65 NE 8 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 62 65 W 10 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 62 65 W 10 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 61 63 W 10 12749 10563 1624 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 12 9671 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 57 E 6 8867 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 61 E 6 11361 9268 329 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 58 62 NE 10 12074 9662 723 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 60 65 NE 10 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 61 66 NE 10 14597 12671 3732 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 62 67 NE 10 15166 13304 4365 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 62 66 NE 10 14597 12671 3732 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 62 65 NE 10 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 61 62 N 9 12074 9662 723 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 59 59 N 9 9671 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 9 8867 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 9 8456 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 N 9 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 9 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 55 NE 7 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 59 NE 7 9671 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 63 NE 7 12749 10563 1624 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 59 64 NE 8 13392 11307 2368 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 61 67 NE 8 15166 13304 4365 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 62 69 NE 8 16551 14494 5555 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 64 70 NE 8 16788 15056 6117 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 65 70 NE 8 16788 15056 6117 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 66 70 NE 8 16788 15056 6117 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 66 68 N 12 15716 13911 4972 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 63 64 N 12 13392 11307 2368 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 12 10602 8939 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 12 9272 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 12 8867 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 12 8456 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 5 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NW 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 5 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NW 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 NW 6 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 55 NW 6 8039 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 61 NW 6 11361 9268 329 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 62 67 NW 6 15166 13304 4365 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 65 72 W 12 17259 16493 7554 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 66 74 W 12 19998 16962 8023 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 67 76 W 12 21962 18330 9391 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 67 75 W 12 21048 17195 8256 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 68 75 W 12 21048 17195 8256 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 69 74 W 12 19998 16962 8023 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 69 71 W 16 17024 15599 6660 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 67 68 W 16 15716 13911 4972 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 16 12749 10563 1624 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 16 10602 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 16 9272 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 16 8456 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 W 12 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 56 W 12 8456 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 60 W 12 10602 8939 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 60 65 W 12 14006 12007 3068 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 62 69 W 16 16551 14494 5555 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 64 72 W 16 17259 16493 7554 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 65 74 W 16 19998 16962 8023 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 66 74 W 16 19998 16962 8023 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 66 73 W 16 18756 16728 7789 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 66 71 W 16 17024 15599 6660 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 65 68 W 20 15716 13911 4972 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 63 64 W 20 13392 11307 2368 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 20 10602 8939 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 20 9272 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 20 8456 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 20 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 W 8 7766 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com