Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 S 3 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 63 S 3 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 S 3 11207 9905 966 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 66 71 E 7 12123 11557 2618 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 68 74 E 7 12612 12105 3166 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 70 76 E 7 14922 12448 3509 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 71 77 W 12 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 72 77 W 12 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 72 75 W 12 14209 12287 3348 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 71 73 W 12 12464 11923 2984 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 11756 10660 1721 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 11207 9905 966 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 12 10227 9278 339 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 NW 8 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NW 8 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 NW 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NW 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 63 SW 5 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 67 SW 5 11207 9905 966 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 66 71 W 9 12123 11557 2618 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 68 75 W 9 14209 12287 3348 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 69 76 W 9 14922 12448 3509 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 71 78 W 9 16237 14089 5150 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 71 77 W 9 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 71 75 W 9 14209 12287 3348 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 70 71 NW 13 12123 11557 2618 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 67 67 NW 13 11207 9905 966 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 65 65 NW 13 10227 9278 339 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 13 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 13 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 13 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 NW 6 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 NW 6 8961 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 NW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 W 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 W 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 W 5 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 67 W 5 11207 9905 966 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 70 S 6 11939 11172 2233 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 68 74 S 6 12612 12105 3166 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 70 77 S 6 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 71 77 S 6 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 72 77 S 6 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 72 76 S 6 14922 12448 3509 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 71 72 NW 10 12306 11740 2801 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 69 69 NW 10 11756 10660 1721 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 66 66 NW 10 10687 9592 653 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 10 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 10 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 10 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 W 7 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 W 7 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 W 7 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 W 7 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 W 7 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 W 6 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 69 W 6 11756 10660 1721 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 68 73 E 8 12464 11923 2984 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 70 76 E 8 14922 12448 3509 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 70 76 E 8 14922 12448 3509 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 71 77 E 8 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 72 77 E 8 15596 12596 3657 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 73 76 E 8 14922 12448 3509 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 9 12612 12105 3166 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 71 71 SW 9 12123 11557 2618 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 67 67 SW 9 11207 9905 966 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 9914 8961 22 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 SW 9 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 6 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 8961 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SW 5 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 SW 5 10227 9278 339 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 68 SW 5 11571 10215 1276 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 66 70 S 7 11939 11172 2233 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 67 72 S 7 12306 11740 2801 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 68 73 S 7 12464 11923 2984 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 68 73 S 7 12464 11923 2984 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 69 73 S 7 12464 11923 2984 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 70 73 S 7 12464 11923 2984 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 70 71 W 12 12123 11557 2618 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 12 11571 10215 1276 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 12 10227 9278 339 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 8 9281 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 W 8 8961 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 W 8 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 SW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 SW 6 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 66 SW 6 10687 9592 653 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 65 69 S 8 11756 10660 1721 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 66 70 S 8 11939 11172 2233 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 66 71 S 8 12123 11557 2618 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 67 72 S 8 12306 11740 2801 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 68 72 S 8 12306 11740 2801 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 69 72 S 8 12306 11740 2801 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 14 11939 11172 2233 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 14 10687 9592 653 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 14 9598 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 14 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 9 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 W 9 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 9 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 8763 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 9 8763 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com