Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.387979, -118.295132, 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 ESE 1 2 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 1 2 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 1 3 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NW 1 2 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 WNW 1 2 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 W 0 1 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 WSW 1 1 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 1 1 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 59 S 1 1 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 63 SSE 2 3 6233 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 68 SSE 4 4 8693 8085 2393 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 65 72 SSE 5 6 11649 8855 3163 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 75 SSE 5 6 13679 11487 5795 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 69 77 SSE 5 6 14285 13091 7399 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 71 79 SSE 5 6 14994 13868 8176 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 72 78 SSE 5 6 14642 13611 7919 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 72 76 S 5 6 13938 12297 6605 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 72 74 S 5 6 13313 10603 4911 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 70 70 SW 5 7 9944 8496 2804 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 5 8 8693 8085 2393 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 5 9 8331 6214 522 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 9 7256 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 5 9 5059 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 W 4 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 W 4 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 W 4 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 4 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 3 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 3 6 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NW 2 4 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 NNW 2 2 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 65 W 2 2 8122 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 70 SSW 2 2 9944 8496 2804 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 67 74 SE 1 2 13313 10603 4911 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 68 76 SE 2 2 13938 12297 6605 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 70 78 SE 2 2 14642 13611 7919 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 72 79 SE 2 2 14994 13868 8176 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 72 77 SSE 2 2 14285 13091 7399 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 73 76 S 2 3 13938 12297 6605 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 73 75 SSW 2 3 13679 11487 5795 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 71 71 SW 3 5 10753 8676 2984 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 5 7 9020 8316 2624 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 6 9 8512 7209 1517 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 9 8122 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 9 6233 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 4 7 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 WNW 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 4 8 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 NW 3 6 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NW 3 4 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 NNW 2 2 5059 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 66 W 2 2 8331 6214 522 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 65 70 SSW 2 2 9944 8496 2804 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 67 74 SSE 2 2 13313 10603 4911 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 69 76 SSE 2 3 13938 12297 6605 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 71 78 SSE 3 3 14642 13611 7919 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 73 79 SSE 3 3 14994 13868 8176 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 73 78 S 5 5 14642 13611 7919 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 73 76 SW 6 8 13938 12297 6605 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 73 75 WSW 8 10 13679 11487 5795 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 8 10 9944 8496 2804 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 10 8512 7209 1517 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 10 8122 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 10 6233 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 W 5 9 4895 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com