Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 5 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 5 5322 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 NW 5 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 60 62 NW 6 7127 6475 783 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 63 67 W 6 8044 7443 1751 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 67 72 W 6 10105 8560 2868 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 69 75 SW 7 12144 10032 4340 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 71 77 SW 7 13055 11356 5664 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 72 76 SW 8 12750 10672 4980 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 73 76 S 8 12750 10672 4980 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 73 74 SE 9 11488 9545 3853 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 71 71 SE 10 9612 8291 2599 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 68 68 SE 13 8317 7606 1914 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 65 65 SE 13 7617 7118 1426 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 63 63 SE 10 7291 6792 1100 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 62 62 E 8 7127 6475 783 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 60 60 E 6 6800 5692 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SE 6 5778 5692 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 57 57 S 6 5636 5692 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 6 5497 5692 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 5436 5692 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 6 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 5354 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 5 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 S 3 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 S 3 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 61 62 S 5 7127 6475 783 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 66 69 SW 6 8588 7768 2076 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 7 12144 10032 4340 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 75 81 SW 8 13689 13173 7481 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 77 83 SW 10 14292 13487 7795 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 78 83 SW 12 14292 13487 7795 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 78 82 SW 13 13888 13330 7638 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 77 80 SW 13 13530 13016 7324 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 76 77 SW 13 13055 11356 5664 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 14 10795 9046 3354 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 15 9107 8021 2329 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 15 7780 7281 1589 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 63 63 W 14 7291 6792 1100 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 12 6964 5775 83 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 59 59 NW 9 6502 5692 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 9 5636 5692 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 9 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 9 5497 5692 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 54 54 NW 9 5436 5692 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 53 53 NW 9 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 NW 9 5322 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NW 9 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 8 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NW 8 5322 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 NW 8 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 60 63 NW 8 7291 6792 1100 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 65 69 NW 8 8588 7768 2076 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 67 73 NW 9 10795 9046 3354 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 69 75 NW 9 12144 10032 4340 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 69 75 NW 10 12144 10032 4340 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 69 73 NW 12 10795 9046 3354 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 68 70 N 12 9107 8021 2329 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 67 68 N 13 8317 7606 1914 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 64 64 N 14 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 61 61 N 16 6964 5775 83 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 58 58 N 16 5778 5692 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 14 5497 5692 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 12 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 5354 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NW 9 5322 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NW 9 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 7 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 N 7 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 N 7 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 59 NE 6 6502 5692 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 60 64 NE 6 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 63 68 NE 7 8317 7606 1914 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 66 71 NE 7 9612 8291 2599 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 68 73 NE 8 10795 9046 3354 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 70 74 NE 8 11488 9545 3853 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 70 72 E 8 10105 8560 2868 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 69 70 E 8 9107 8021 2329 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 67 67 E 10 8044 7443 1751 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 64 64 E 12 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 62 62 E 13 7127 6475 783 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 60 60 E 10 6800 5692 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 58 58 NE 7 5778 5692 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NE 5 5497 5692 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 5 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 6 5322 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 5302 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 5354 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 N 5 5636 5692 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 61 64 NE 5 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 66 71 E 6 9612 8291 2599 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 69 75 E 7 12144 10032 4340 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 72 78 E 8 13214 12005 6313 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 73 78 E 9 13214 12005 6313 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 74 78 E 9 13214 12005 6313 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 75 78 E 8 13214 12005 6313 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 74 75 E 8 12144 10032 4340 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 72 72 E 9 10105 8560 2868 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 69 69 SE 12 8588 7768 2076 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 66 66 SE 13 7780 7281 1589 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 64 64 SE 10 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 63 63 SE 8 7291 6792 1100 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 61 61 SE 6 6964 5775 83 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 S 6 6800 5692 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 58 58 SW 6 5778 5692 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 5497 5692 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 5387 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 5436 5692 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 55 55 W 3 5497 5692 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 58 58 W 3 5778 5692 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 63 64 SW 5 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 67 70 S 6 9107 8021 2329 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 72 76 S 7 12750 10672 4980 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 75 80 S 8 13530 13016 7324 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 77 82 S 9 13888 13330 7638 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 78 82 S 10 13888 13330 7638 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 79 82 S 10 13888 13330 7638 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 79 81 S 12 13689 13173 7481 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 78 79 S 12 13372 12611 6919 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 76 76 S 13 12750 10672 4980 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 73 73 S 14 10795 9046 3354 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 69 69 S 14 8588 7768 2076 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 12 7780 7281 1589 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 7454 6955 1263 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 7127 6475 783 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 W 5 6800 5692 0 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 59 59 W 5 6502 5692 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 6 5636 5692 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 7 5558 5692 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 8 5497 5692 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com