Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 35 35 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 34 34 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 49 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 53 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 56 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 58 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 58 59 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 57 57 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 55 55 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 51 51 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 45 45 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 43 43 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 40 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 38 38 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 37 37 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 34 34 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 33 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 27 27 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 27 27 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 29 29 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 32 33 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 36 37 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 39 41 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 41 43 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 43 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 43 44 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 43 43 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 40 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 39 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 37 37 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 35 35 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 34 34 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 33 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 32 32 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 29 29 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 28 28 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 28 28 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 29 29 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 33 33 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 37 37 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 42 43 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 46 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 49 51 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 51 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 52 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 45 45 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 40 40 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 38 38 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 37 37 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 35 35 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 35 35 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 34 34 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 31 31 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 36 36 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 41 41 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 47 48 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 51 53 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 56 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 56 58 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 57 57 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 39 39 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 38 38 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 37 37 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 37 37 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 36 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 35 35 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 34 34 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 33 33 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 34 34 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 38 38 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 43 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 48 49 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 52 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 58 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 58 59 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 58 59 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 57 57 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 55 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 53 53 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 50 50 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 43 43 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 39 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 39 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 37 37 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 35 35 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 45 45 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 50 51 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 55 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 57 58 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 58 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 58 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 57 57 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 56 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 54 54 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 51 51 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 48 48 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 46 46 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 42 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 41 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 40 40 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 38 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com