Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 69 69 E 3 6401 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 SE 3 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 73 73 S 3 8465 7427 1735 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 77 77 SW 3 9153 8620 2928 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 80 81 SW 5 11823 9302 3610 White 12
10 AM Sat 84 85 SW 6 12681 12681 6989 White 16
11 AM Sat 87 89 S 7 13533 13533 7841 White 20
12 Noon Sat 89 91 S 9 13958 13958 8266 White 22
1 PM Sat 90 92 S 12 14170 14170 8478 White 23
2 PM Sat 91 93 S 13 14381 14381 8689 White 24
3 PM Sat 91 92 S 12 14170 14170 8478 White 23
4 PM Sat 90 91 SW 10 13958 13958 8266 White 22
5 PM Sat 89 89 W 8 13533 13533 7841 White 20
6 PM Sat 88 88 W 6 13321 13321 7629 White 19
7 PM Sat 86 86 W 5 12894 12894 7202 White 17
8 PM Sat 84 84 NW 3 12467 10289 4597 White 15
9 PM Sat 82 82 NW 3 12038 9474 3782 White 13
10 PM Sat 80 80 N 3 9888 9132 3440 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 78 78 N 3 9324 8791 3099 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 N 3 8809 8277 2585 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 73 73 N 3 8465 7427 1735 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 70 70 NE 3 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 68 68 NE 3 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 N 3 5424 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 N 3 5424 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 NW 6 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 73 73 NW 7 8465 7427 1735 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 76 77 W 7 9153 8620 2928 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 78 80 W 6 9888 9132 3440 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 81 84 SW 5 12467 10289 4597 White 15
12 Noon Sun 84 87 SW 3 13108 13108 7416 White 18
1 PM Sun 86 90 SW 3 13747 13747 8055 White 21
2 PM Sun 88 91 SW 3 13958 13958 8266 White 22
3 PM Sun 89 91 W 3 13958 13958 8266 White 22
4 PM Sun 89 91 W 3 13958 13958 8266 White 22
5 PM Sun 88 89 W 5 13533 13533 7841 White 20
6 PM Sun 87 87 W 6 13108 13108 7416 White 18
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 6 12681 12681 6989 White 16
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 7 12038 9474 3782 White 13
9 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 9498 8962 3270 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 77 77 W 8 9153 8620 2928 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 74 74 W 8 8638 8105 2413 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 NW 7 8293 6364 672 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 71 71 NW 7 8120 5692 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 69 69 NW 6 6401 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 NW 6 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 NW 7 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 NW 7 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 NW 6 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 72 72 NW 6 8293 6364 672 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 74 74 W 5 8638 8105 2413 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 78 79 NW 5 9498 8962 3270 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 81 83 NW 5 12252 9820 4128 White 14
11 AM Mon 84 86 N 5 12894 12894 7202 White 17
12 Noon Mon 87 90 NW 5 13747 13747 8055 White 21
1 PM Mon 89 92 W 6 14170 14170 8478 White 23
2 PM Mon 91 94 W 6 14589 14589 8897 White 25
3 PM Mon 93 96 W 7 15001 15001 9309 White 27
4 PM Mon 93 95 W 8 14795 14795 9103 White 26
5 PM Mon 92 93 W 8 14381 14381 8689 White 24
6 PM Mon 90 90 W 8 13747 13747 8055 White 21
7 PM Mon 87 87 W 7 13108 13108 7416 White 18
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 7 12252 9820 4128 White 14
9 PM Mon 80 80 W 7 9888 9132 3440 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 8 8981 8449 2757 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 72 72 W 8 8293 6364 672 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 W 7 6401 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 NW 6 5424 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 NW 5 4990 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NW 3 4990 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 N 3 5177 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 N 3 5424 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 73 73 NW 3 8465 7427 1735 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 76 76 W 5 8981 8449 2757 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 80 81 W 5 11823 9302 3610 White 12
10 AM Tue 84 86 SW 5 12894 12894 7202 White 17
11 AM Tue 87 90 SW 6 13747 13747 8055 White 21
12 Noon Tue 90 94 SW 7 14589 14589 8897 White 25
1 PM Tue 93 97 SW 7 15209 15209 9517 White 28
2 PM Tue 95 99 SW 8 15618 15618 9926 White 30
3 PM Tue 96 99 SW 8 15618 15618 9926 White 30
4 PM Tue 96 99 W 9 15618 15618 9926 White 30
5 PM Tue 95 96 W 9 15001 15001 9309 White 27
6 PM Tue 93 93 W 9 14381 14381 8689 White 24
7 PM Tue 89 89 W 8 13533 13533 7841 White 20
8 PM Tue 85 85 W 7 12681 12681 6989 White 16
9 PM Tue 81 81 W 6 11823 9302 3610 White 12
10 PM Tue 77 77 NW 6 9153 8620 2928 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 73 73 NW 5 8465 7427 1735 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 NW 5 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 68 68 NW 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 5177 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 5177 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 N 5 5424 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 N 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 8120 5692 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 74 74 NW 5 8638 8105 2413 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 78 79 NW 5 9498 8962 3270 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 83 85 W 5 12681 12681 6989 White 16
10 AM Wed 87 90 W 5 13747 13747 8055 White 21
11 AM Wed 91 95 SW 5 14795 14795 9103 White 26
12 Noon Wed 94 99 SW 6 15618 15618 9926 White 30
1 PM Wed 96 101 SW 7 16025 16025 10333 White 32
2 PM Wed 97 102 W 8 16229 16229 10537 White 33
3 PM Wed 98 102 W 9 16229 16229 10537 White 33
4 PM Wed 98 101 W 10 16025 16025 10333 White 32
5 PM Wed 96 98 W 10 15414 15414 9722 White 29
6 PM Wed 94 95 W 10 14795 14795 9103 White 26
7 PM Wed 90 90 W 9 13747 13747 8055 White 21
8 PM Wed 87 87 W 8 13108 13108 7416 White 18
9 PM Wed 83 83 NW 8 12252 9820 4128 White 14
10 PM Wed 79 79 NW 7 9498 8962 3270 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 75 75 NW 6 8809 8277 2585 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NW 6 8293 6364 672 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 70 70 NW 5 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 69 69 N 5 6401 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 N 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 N 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 N 5 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 72 72 N 5 8293 6364 672 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 75 75 NW 5 8809 8277 2585 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 79 80 NW 5 9888 9132 3440 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 82 84 W 5 12467 10289 4597 White 15
10 AM Thu 86 89 W 5 13533 13533 7841 White 20
11 AM Thu 89 94 W 5 14589 14589 8897 White 25
12 Noon Thu 92 97 W 6 15209 15209 9517 White 28
1 PM Thu 94 100 W 7 15823 15823 10131 White 31
2 PM Thu 95 100 W 8 15823 15823 10131 White 31
3 PM Thu 95 99 W 9 15618 15618 9926 White 30
4 PM Thu 94 97 W 10 15209 15209 9517 White 28
5 PM Thu 93 95 W 10 14795 14795 9103 White 26
6 PM Thu 91 92 W 10 14170 14170 8478 White 23
7 PM Thu 88 88 W 9 13321 13321 7629 White 19
8 PM Thu 85 85 NW 8 12681 12681 6989 White 16
9 PM Thu 81 81 NW 7 11823 9302 3610 White 12
10 PM Thu 78 78 NW 6 9324 8791 3099 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 75 75 N 5 8809 8277 2585 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 N 5 8293 6364 672 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 70 70 N 5 7494 5692 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 5 6401 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 5670 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com