Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 66 66 N 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 N 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 NW 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 NW 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 80 W 5 8101 6605 913 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 87 SW 5 11871 11310 5618 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 86 93 SW 6 14905 13385 7693 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 90 98 SW 6 16100 15587 9895 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 92 101 SW 7 16512 16052 10360 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 94 102 SW 8 16924 16189 10497 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 94 101 SW 8 16512 16052 10360 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 94 99 SW 9 16238 15778 10086 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 94 97 W 9 15963 15186 9494 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 92 93 W 9 14905 13385 7693 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 88 88 NW 9 12403 11485 5793 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 83 83 NW 10 11157 8061 2369 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 81 81 NW 9 8574 7101 1409 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 77 77 N 8 6625 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 75 N 7 5578 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 N 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 N 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 N 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 N 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 W 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 71 SW 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 79 SW 3 7620 6096 404 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 85 SW 5 11519 9781 4089 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 84 91 SW 6 14058 12274 6582 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 87 95 SW 8 15687 14362 8670 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 90 98 S 10 16100 15587 9895 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 91 98 S 13 16100 15587 9895 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 93 99 S 14 16238 15778 10086 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 93 97 S 14 15963 15186 9494 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 92 94 S 14 15317 13913 8221 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 90 91 S 14 14058 12274 6582 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 87 87 SE 13 11871 11310 5618 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 84 84 SE 12 11343 8525 2833 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 80 80 SE 9 8101 6605 913 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 77 77 SE 7 6625 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 SE 5 5578 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 SE 5 6625 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 83 S 7 11157 8061 2369 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 84 89 S 9 12974 11660 5968 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 87 93 S 10 14905 13385 7693 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 89 95 S 12 15687 14362 8670 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 91 96 S 13 15825 14777 9085 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 93 98 S 14 16100 15587 9895 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 93 97 S 15 15963 15186 9494 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 92 94 S 15 15317 13913 8221 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 90 91 S 15 14058 12274 6582 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 87 87 SE 16 11871 11310 5618 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 83 83 SE 15 11157 8061 2369 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 79 79 SE 13 7620 6096 404 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 SE 10 6108 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 SE 8 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 E 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 E 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 NE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 NE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 S 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 SW 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 77 SW 5 6625 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 84 S 6 11343 8525 2833 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 84 91 SE 7 14058 12274 6582 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 87 94 SE 8 15317 13913 8221 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 89 96 S 10 15825 14777 9085 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 91 98 S 12 16100 15587 9895 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 92 97 S 13 15963 15186 9494 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 92 96 S 14 15825 14777 9085 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 91 93 S 14 14905 13385 7693 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 89 90 S 14 13525 11835 6143 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 85 85 S 14 11519 9781 4089 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 82 82 S 13 9955 7586 1894 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 79 79 S 9 7620 6096 404 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 S 6 6108 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 S 3 5032 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 S 2 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 S 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 S 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 W 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 NW 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 NW 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 W 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 W 5 6108 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 81 SW 3 8574 7101 1409 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 82 86 S 3 11695 10951 5259 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 85 90 S 5 13525 11835 6143 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 88 93 S 6 14905 13385 7693 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 90 95 S 7 15687 14362 8670 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 91 95 S 8 15687 14362 8670 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 91 94 S 8 15317 13913 8221 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 90 92 S 9 14486 12839 7147 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 88 89 S 10 12974 11660 5968 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 85 85 SE 12 11519 9781 4089 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 81 81 SE 12 8574 7101 1409 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 78 78 SE 12 7128 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 76 76 SE 10 6108 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 SE 9 5032 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SE 7 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 SE 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 SE 2 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 E 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SE 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 SE 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 77 SE 8 6625 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 83 SE 9 11157 8061 2369 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 82 88 SE 12 12403 11485 5793 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 85 92 SE 13 14486 12839 7147 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 87 95 SE 14 15687 14362 8670 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 89 96 SE 15 15825 14777 9085 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 90 96 SE 15 15825 14777 9085 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 91 95 S 15 15687 14362 8670 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 90 93 S 15 14905 13385 7693 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 88 89 S 16 12974 11660 5968 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 84 84 S 16 11343 8525 2833 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 81 81 S 16 8574 7101 1409 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 78 78 S 15 7128 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 76 SE 13 6108 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 SE 10 5032 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 SE 8 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 SE 6 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 SE 5 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 SE 3 5007 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com