Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 40 40 SE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 40 40 SE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 42 42 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 44 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 46 46 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 47 47 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 51 51 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 51 51 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 51 51 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 51 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 42 42 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 41 41 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 37 37 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 36 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 36 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 36 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 35 35 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 35 35 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 47 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 49 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 51 52 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 53 54 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 54 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 53 53 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 51 51 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 49 49 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 44 44 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 42 42 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 41 41 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 40 40 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 37 37 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 34 34 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 36 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 39 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 43 43 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 49 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 51 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 56 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 56 57 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 58 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 57 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 55 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 45 45 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 42 42 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 41 41 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 39 39 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 37 37 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 36 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 34 34 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 34 34 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 44 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 49 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 53 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 55 56 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 56 57 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 57 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 55 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 54 54 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 52 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 49 49 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 36 36 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 34 34 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 32 32 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 31 31 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 30 30 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 31 31 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 33 33 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 36 36 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 40 41 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 42 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 44 46 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 45 47 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 45 46 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 44 44 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 42 42 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 40 40 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 38 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 37 37 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 35 35 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 34 34 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 32 32 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 30 30 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 29 29 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 28 28 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 27 27 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 28 28 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 32 32 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 37 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 42 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 45 47 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 47 49 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 49 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 50 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 43 43 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 40 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 37 37 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 35 35 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 34 34 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 34 34 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 32 32 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com