Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 E 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 E 3 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 E 3 5534 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 SE 5 9526 7670 1978 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 73 78 S 6 11191 10321 4629 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 77 83 S 9 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 80 86 S 13 15006 13538 7846 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 82 87 S 15 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 84 88 S 16 15834 14435 8743 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 84 87 S 16 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 82 83 S 15 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 79 79 SE 13 11713 10539 4847 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 74 74 E 9 10139 9499 3807 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 69 69 E 7 8380 6270 578 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 66 66 NE 6 6292 5692 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 5386 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 NE 6 5089 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NE 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NE 3 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 E 2 5386 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 71 S 2 9526 7670 1978 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 78 S 3 11191 10321 4629 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 78 84 S 6 14121 12599 6907 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 81 87 S 9 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 82 87 S 12 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 84 88 S 13 15834 14435 8743 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 84 87 S 14 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 82 83 S 14 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 79 79 SE 14 11713 10539 4847 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 74 74 SE 13 10139 9499 3807 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 70 70 E 10 9011 6989 1297 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 66 66 E 8 6292 5692 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 63 63 E 6 5386 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 E 3 5089 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 2 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NE 3 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 3 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 3 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 E 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 E 5 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 72 S 3 9731 8319 2627 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 75 79 S 3 11713 10539 4847 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 78 84 S 5 14121 12599 6907 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 81 87 S 6 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 82 87 S 8 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 84 88 S 9 15834 14435 8743 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 84 87 S 10 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 82 83 S 10 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 11191 10321 4629 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 9935 8940 3248 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 6 7720 5692 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 65 65 N 6 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 5237 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 8 4941 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 9 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 9 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 N 10 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 N 10 5237 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 69 NW 10 8380 6270 578 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 71 75 NW 10 10356 9702 4010 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 75 80 NW 10 12221 10756 5064 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 78 84 NW 12 14121 12599 6907 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 81 86 NW 12 15006 13538 7846 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 82 86 NW 12 15006 13538 7846 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 82 85 NW 12 14568 13074 7382 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 81 82 NW 12 13195 11609 5917 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 79 79 NW 10 11713 10539 4847 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 76 76 N 9 10575 9906 4214 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 72 72 N 9 9731 8319 2627 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 8 7720 5692 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 64 64 N 7 5534 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 N 6 4941 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NE 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 E 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 E 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 SE 7 5534 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 SE 7 9526 7670 1978 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 72 76 S 7 10575 9906 4214 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 76 81 S 8 12714 11092 5400 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 79 85 S 8 14568 13074 7382 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 81 86 S 9 15006 13538 7846 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 83 87 S 10 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 83 86 S 12 15006 13538 7846 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 82 83 S 12 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 80 80 S 12 12221 10756 5064 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 78 78 S 10 11191 10321 4629 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 74 74 SE 10 10139 9499 3807 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 70 70 SE 9 9011 6989 1297 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 66 66 SE 9 6292 5692 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 62 62 SE 8 5237 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 E 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 E 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NE 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 6 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 5089 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 SE 6 6292 5692 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 70 73 S 7 9935 8940 3248 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 75 79 S 7 11713 10539 4847 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 78 83 S 8 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 81 87 S 8 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 82 87 S 9 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 83 87 SW 9 15435 13992 8300 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 83 86 SW 10 15006 13538 7846 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 82 83 SW 10 13663 12111 6419 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 79 79 SW 10 11713 10539 4847 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 77 77 SW 9 10794 10108 4416 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 73 73 SW 9 9935 8940 3248 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 8 8380 6270 578 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 6292 5692 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 5237 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 W 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NW 7 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NW 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 4902 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com