Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 30 30 N 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 N 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 N 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 N 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 NW 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 NW 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 52 W 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 W 3 5486 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 57 SW 3 5619 5692 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 58 59 SW 3 6109 5692 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 58 58 S 3 5830 5692 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 56 56 S 3 5486 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 SE 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 NE 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 N 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 N 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 5321 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 NW 6 5376 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 NW 6 5830 5692 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 60 61 NW 5 6664 5826 134 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 62 63 NW 5 7464 6378 686 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 8199 6652 960 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 64 64 N 3 8199 6652 960 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 62 62 N 3 6938 6103 411 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 57 57 N 3 5619 5692 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 55 55 NE 3 5431 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 NE 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 N 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NE 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 NE 3 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 E 3 5619 5692 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 57 58 SE 3 5830 5692 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 61 62 SE 5 6938 6103 411 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 65 66 SE 5 9553 7414 1722 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 67 68 SE 6 10907 8818 3126 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 69 70 SE 7 11426 10089 4397 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 69 69 SE 7 11167 9468 3776 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 67 67 SE 7 10184 8135 2443 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 61 61 SE 6 6664 5826 134 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 59 59 SE 6 6109 5692 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 54 54 SE 5 5376 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 E 5 5321 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 E 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 E 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 NE 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 E 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 E 5 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 5431 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 SE 5 6664 5826 134 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 59 60 SE 5 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 63 65 SE 6 8893 6925 1233 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 67 69 SE 7 11167 9468 3776 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 69 70 SE 8 11426 10089 4397 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 70 71 SE 9 11683 10791 5099 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 70 70 SE 9 11426 10089 4397 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 68 68 SE 10 10907 8818 3126 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 62 62 SE 10 6938 6103 411 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 60 60 SE 9 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 54 54 SE 9 5376 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 E 8 5321 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 E 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 E 8 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 E 6 5376 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 SE 5 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 59 60 SE 5 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 64 66 SE 5 9553 7414 1722 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 67 69 SE 3 11167 9468 3776 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 69 70 SE 3 11426 10089 4397 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 71 72 SE 3 11939 11119 5427 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 71 71 SE 3 11683 10791 5099 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 69 69 SE 3 11167 9468 3776 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 63 63 SE 3 7464 6378 686 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 61 61 SE 3 6664 5826 134 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 55 55 E 5 5431 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 E 5 5376 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 NE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 NE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NE 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NE 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 6 5431 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 59 60 E 5 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 63 64 E 5 8199 6652 960 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 67 68 E 5 10907 8818 3126 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 69 70 SE 6 11426 10089 4397 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 70 71 SE 6 11683 10791 5099 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 70 70 SE 7 11426 10089 4397 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 68 68 SE 7 10907 8818 3126 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 62 62 SE 7 6938 6103 411 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 60 60 SE 7 6387 5692 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 54 54 E 7 5376 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 E 7 5321 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 E 7 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 SE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 5292 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com