Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 28 28 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 E 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 S 1 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 S 1 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 58 S 1 6448 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 60 S 2 7068 6146 454 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 60 61 S 2 7403 6438 746 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 60 61 S 2 7403 6438 746 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 58 58 SE 2 6448 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 SE 2 5558 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 SE 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 E 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 E 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 E 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 NE 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 N 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 N 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 N 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 NE 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 NW 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 W 3 5257 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 60 W 3 7068 6146 454 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 61 63 W 3 8064 7050 1358 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 63 65 W 3 8712 7710 2018 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 63 64 SW 3 8389 7382 1690 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 62 62 SW 2 7735 6728 1036 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 59 59 S 2 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 S 2 5558 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 SE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 SE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 E 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 NE 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 NE 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 E 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 55 E 1 5558 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 61 E 1 7403 6438 746 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 61 63 SE 2 8064 7050 1358 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 63 65 SE 3 8712 7710 2018 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 63 64 SE 3 8389 7382 1690 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 62 62 SE 3 7735 6728 1036 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 60 60 SE 3 7068 6146 454 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 56 56 SE 3 5856 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 SE 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 SE 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 S 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 1 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NW 1 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 NW 1 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NW 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 N 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 N 2 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 N 3 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 N 3 5558 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 N 3 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NE 5 7403 6438 746 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 61 63 NE 5 8064 7050 1358 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 61 62 E 5 7735 6728 1036 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 60 60 E 6 7068 6146 454 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 59 59 SE 6 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 57 SE 6 6153 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 S 6 5558 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 S 6 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 NW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 NW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 NE 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 NE 5 5257 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 NE 5 6448 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 NE 5 7068 6146 454 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 59 61 E 6 7403 6438 746 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 59 60 E 6 7068 6146 454 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 59 59 E 6 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 E 6 6153 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 SE 6 5558 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 SE 6 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 S 6 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 S 5 5257 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 57 S 5 6153 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 59 S 6 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 59 S 6 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 59 SE 7 6740 5852 160 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 57 SE 7 6153 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 56 SE 7 5856 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 53 SE 7 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 SE 7 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 S 6 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 S 6 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 SW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 W 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 NW 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 5217 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com