Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 9 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 NW 8 7666 5692 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 51 53 NW 9 8892 8268 2576 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 55 58 NW 10 10288 9286 3594 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 58 62 NW 10 11099 10465 4773 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 60 65 NW 10 11671 11062 5370 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 62 66 NW 12 11862 11252 5560 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 61 64 NW 12 11481 10886 5194 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 62 64 NW 13 11481 10886 5194 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 59 60 NW 14 10714 10041 4349 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 57 57 N 13 10075 9073 3381 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 9 8892 8268 2576 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 8 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 48 48 N 6 7885 5859 167 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 46 46 N 7 6872 5692 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 N 8 8086 6825 1133 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 54 56 N 9 9589 8869 3177 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 60 64 NW 10 11481 10886 5194 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 64 69 NW 10 12474 11820 6128 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 66 71 NW 10 13653 12183 6491 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 69 74 NW 10 15206 13497 7805 White 29
3 PM Sun 68 72 NW 10 14230 12357 6665 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 69 71 N 10 13653 12183 6491 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 65 66 N 10 11862 11252 5560 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 63 63 N 9 11290 10676 4984 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 59 59 N 9 10501 9516 3824 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 8 9314 8669 2977 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 8 8892 8268 2576 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 7 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 7885 5859 167 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 7 6872 5692 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 7666 5692 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 7 5874 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 7 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NW 6 7666 5692 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 50 51 NW 6 8490 7869 2177 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 57 59 N 7 10501 9516 3824 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 62 66 N 7 11862 11252 5560 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 66 71 NW 7 13653 12183 6491 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 68 73 NW 7 14826 12929 7237 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 71 75 NW 7 15415 14048 8356 White 30
3 PM Mon 70 73 NW 8 14826 12929 7237 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 71 73 NW 8 14826 12929 7237 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 67 68 N 8 12223 11631 5939 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 65 65 N 7 11671 11062 5370 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 5 10918 10253 4561 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 3 10288 9286 3594 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 3 9589 8869 3177 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 3 9099 8469 2777 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 3 8490 7869 2177 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 3 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 8086 6825 1133 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 5 7666 5692 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 6872 5692 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 5874 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 5000 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 5874 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 8490 7869 2177 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 54 55 NW 5 9314 8669 2977 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 61 64 NW 5 11481 10886 5194 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 66 70 NW 5 13080 12008 6316 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 70 75 NW 5 15415 14048 8356 White 30
1 PM Tue 72 77 NW 5 15817 15207 9515 White 32
2 PM Tue 75 80 N 6 16431 16431 10739 White 35
3 PM Tue 74 78 N 6 16013 15737 10045 White 33
4 PM Tue 75 77 N 6 15817 15207 9515 White 32
5 PM Tue 71 72 N 6 14230 12357 6665 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 69 69 N 6 12474 11820 6128 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 66 66 N 6 11862 11252 5560 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 5 11290 10676 4984 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 61 61 NE 5 10918 10253 4561 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 58 58 NE 5 10288 9286 3594 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 5 9589 8869 3177 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NE 5 9099 8469 2777 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 9314 8669 2977 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 9099 8469 2777 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 52 52 NE 7 8691 8067 2375 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 8490 7869 2177 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 7 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 8086 6825 1133 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 9314 8669 2977 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 58 59 N 3 10501 9516 3824 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 64 67 N 2 12048 11442 5750 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 69 73 N 2 14826 12929 7237 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 72 77 N 2 15817 15207 9515 White 32
1 PM Wed 75 80 NE 3 16431 16431 10739 White 35
2 PM Wed 77 82 NE 3 16842 16842 11150 White 37
3 PM Wed 76 80 E 5 16431 16431 10739 White 35
4 PM Wed 77 79 E 6 16222 16222 10530 White 34
5 PM Wed 73 74 E 6 15206 13497 7805 White 29
6 PM Wed 71 71 E 6 13653 12183 6491 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 67 67 E 6 12048 11442 5750 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 11481 10886 5194 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 11099 10465 4773 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 5 10714 10041 4349 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 10075 9073 3381 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 E 5 9589 8869 3177 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 9589 8869 3177 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 6 9314 8669 2977 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 8892 8268 2576 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 6 8691 8067 2375 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 6 8490 7869 2177 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 8288 7605 1913 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 8490 7869 2177 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 10075 9073 3381 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 60 61 E 2 10918 10253 4561 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 66 69 E 1 12474 11820 6128 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 71 75 E 1 15415 14048 8356 White 30
12 Noon Thu 74 79 E 2 16222 16222 10530 White 34
1 PM Thu 77 82 E 3 16842 16842 11150 White 37
2 PM Thu 79 84 SE 5 17245 17245 11553 White 39
3 PM Thu 78 82 SE 6 16842 16842 11150 White 37
4 PM Thu 79 81 SE 7 16640 16640 10948 White 36
5 PM Thu 75 76 SE 8 15620 14639 8947 White 31
6 PM Thu 73 73 SE 8 14826 12929 7237 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 69 69 SE 7 12474 11820 6128 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 66 66 SE 6 11862 11252 5560 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 64 64 SE 5 11481 10886 5194 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 62 62 SE 5 11099 10465 4773 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 59 59 SE 3 10501 9516 3824 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SE 3 10288 9286 3594 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 10288 9286 3594 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 57 57 E 3 10075 9073 3381 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 55 55 E 5 9314 8669 2977 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 54 54 NE 5 9099 8469 2777 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com