Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 43 43 SE 7 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SW 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SW 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 SW 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 SW 6 8085 6328 636 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 57 SW 7 9853 9567 3875 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 57 59 S 8 10390 9764 4072 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 61 64 S 10 12545 10779 5087 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 62 65 S 13 12836 11400 5708 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 63 65 S 13 12836 11400 5708 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 61 62 SW 14 11524 10347 4655 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 61 61 S 13 10896 10088 4396 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 58 58 S 12 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 55 55 SW 10 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 9 9588 8036 2344 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 51 51 E 8 8085 6328 636 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 SW 7 6948 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 NE 6 5723 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SW 6 5723 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SW 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 SW 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SW 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 SW 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SW 7 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 SW 7 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SW 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SW 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 7526 5715 23 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 S 10 9588 8036 2344 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 57 58 S 14 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 59 61 S 16 10896 10088 4396 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 61 64 SW 17 12545 10779 5087 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 61 64 SW 18 12545 10779 5087 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 61 64 SW 20 12545 10779 5087 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 60 62 SW 20 11524 10347 4655 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 58 59 SW 20 10390 9764 4072 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 55 55 SW 18 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 53 53 SW 16 9150 7486 1794 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 SW 14 7526 5715 23 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SW 13 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 12 5723 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 W 10 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 50 W 9 7526 5715 23 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 55 W 10 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 54 60 W 12 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 55 61 W 13 10896 10088 4396 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 56 62 W 14 11524 10347 4655 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 56 60 W 15 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 55 58 W 16 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 54 55 W 17 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 51 51 W 16 8085 6328 636 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 W 15 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 14 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 13 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 NW 12 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NW 10 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 N 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 N 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 42 N 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 48 N 8 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 53 N 9 9150 7486 1794 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 58 N 10 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 54 60 N 10 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 55 61 N 12 10896 10088 4396 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 56 60 N 13 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 57 59 NW 14 10390 9764 4072 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 56 57 NW 14 9853 9567 3875 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 54 54 NW 14 9588 8036 2344 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 51 51 N 14 8085 6328 636 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 N 13 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 N 12 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 N 10 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 10 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 N 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 NW 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 NW 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NW 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 NW 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 N 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 44 N 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 49 N 10 6948 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 55 N 10 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 53 58 N 12 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 55 60 N 12 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 56 60 N 13 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 57 60 N 14 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 57 59 N 14 10390 9764 4072 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 57 58 N 14 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 55 55 N 13 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 9150 7486 1794 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 10 7526 5715 23 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 9 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 W 8 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 7 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 7 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 7 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 W 6 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 S 7 9150 7486 1794 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 59 S 7 10390 9764 4072 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 58 62 S 8 11524 10347 4655 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 60 64 S 8 12545 10779 5087 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 62 66 S 9 13124 11993 6301 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 62 65 S 10 12836 11400 5708 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 62 64 S 10 12545 10779 5087 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 62 62 S 10 11524 10347 4655 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 60 60 S 10 10626 9842 4150 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 58 58 S 10 10129 9669 3977 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 55 55 S 9 9683 8569 2877 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 53 53 SW 8 9150 7486 1794 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SW 7 8085 6328 636 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 6 6948 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 6 6348 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 W 6 5723 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 6 5289 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com