Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 W 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 48 W 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 54 SW 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 57 SW 3 5566 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 59 SW 3 6143 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 60 SW 3 6469 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 S 3 6469 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 59 S 3 6143 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 SE 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 SE 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 56 SE 10 5274 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 59 SE 12 6143 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 61 SE 13 7066 5851 159 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 61 62 S 13 7641 6136 444 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 62 62 S 12 7641 6136 444 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 61 61 S 9 7066 5851 159 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 55 55 S 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 SE 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 SE 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 SE 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 SE 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 E 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 E 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 E 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 SW 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 W 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 NW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 NW 10 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 NW 12 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 47 NW 14 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 49 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 50 NW 16 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 50 NW 16 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 NW 16 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 NW 16 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 NW 14 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 NW 14 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 NW 14 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 NW 13 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 NW 12 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 NW 12 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 NW 13 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 NW 14 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 NW 16 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 40 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 43 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 45 NW 17 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 44 44 NW 16 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 43 NW 15 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 NW 13 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 NW 12 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 N 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 N 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 N 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 N 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 N 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 NE 3 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 E 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 E 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 E 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 SE 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 SE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 S 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 S 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 38 S 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 43 SW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 46 SW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 48 SW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 49 SW 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 SW 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 S 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 S 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 S 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 SE 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 SE 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 SE 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 SE 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SE 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 SE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 SE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 SE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 SE 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 S 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 S 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 SW 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 SW 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 SW 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 46 47 SW 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 SW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 49 W 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 W 10 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 10 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 W 10 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 NW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 NW 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 N 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 NE 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 NE 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 NE 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 NE 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 N 9 5105 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com