Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SW 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 SW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 59 SW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 64 SW 6 6472 5692 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 64 64 S 9 6472 5692 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 65 65 S 10 6643 5915 223 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 63 63 S 10 6301 5692 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 62 62 S 10 5928 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 59 S 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 56 SW 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 SW 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 NW 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 N 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 N 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 N 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 41 N 13 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 N 14 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 44 NW 14 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 44 NW 14 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 44 NW 14 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 42 42 NW 14 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 41 41 NW 14 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 39 39 NW 13 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 37 37 NW 13 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 NW 12 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 NW 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 NW 10 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NW 9 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NW 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 NW 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 NW 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 N 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 N 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 43 N 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 45 NE 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 46 NE 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 45 46 E 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 44 44 SE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 43 43 SE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 41 SE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 39 E 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 E 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 E 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 SE 3 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 SE 3 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 SE 3 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SE 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 SE 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 SE 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 45 SE 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 47 SE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 49 SE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 48 SE 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 E 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 E 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 E 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 E 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 E 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 NE 3 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NE 3 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 N 3 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 N 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 NW 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 48 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 51 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 53 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 53 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 N 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 N 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 N 5 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 NW 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 56 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 56 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 W 6 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 W 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 W 7 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 W 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 W 8 4787 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com