Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 47 47 SE 2 7364 6836 1144 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 7364 6836 1144 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 7501 7019 1327 Blue 13
8 AM Sun 49 49 S 5 7638 7201 1509 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 51 52 S 7 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 54 56 S 8 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 56 59 S 10 10299 8801 3109 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 57 60 S 13 10756 9220 3528 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 57 61 S 15 11664 9742 4050 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 57 60 S 15 10756 9220 3528 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 55 57 SW 14 9288 8452 2760 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 55 56 W 9 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 52 52 W 13 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 7796 7354 1662 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 14 7364 6836 1144 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 45 45 NW 14 7029 6529 837 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 43 43 N 15 6686 6321 629 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 43 43 N 13 6686 6321 629 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 42 42 N 12 6535 6261 569 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 N 9 6384 6200 508 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 41 41 N 9 6384 6200 508 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 40 40 N 12 6323 6140 448 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 41 41 N 12 6384 6200 508 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 41 41 N 13 6384 6200 508 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 41 41 N 10 6384 6200 508 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 12 6323 6140 448 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 42 42 N 10 6535 6261 569 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 12 6845 6382 690 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 47 48 N 12 7501 7019 1327 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 51 53 NW 10 8302 7783 2091 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 53 56 NW 13 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 55 59 NW 14 10299 8801 3109 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 58 62 NW 15 12065 10255 4563 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 60 63 NW 15 12321 10588 4896 White 28
3 PM Mon 61 64 NW 15 12532 11486 5794 White 29
4 PM Mon 61 63 NW 14 12321 10588 4896 White 28
5 PM Mon 61 62 NW 13 12065 10255 4563 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 60 60 NW 12 10756 9220 3528 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 58 58 NW 12 9823 8623 2931 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 10 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 54 54 NW 10 8470 7950 2258 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 10 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 7965 7491 1799 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 10 7796 7354 1662 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 9 7796 7354 1662 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 9 7638 7201 1509 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 9 7501 7019 1327 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 7364 6836 1144 Blue 12
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 7364 6836 1144 Blue 12
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 12 7501 7019 1327 Blue 13
7 AM Tue 49 49 NW 14 7638 7201 1509 Blue 14
8 AM Tue 51 52 NW 15 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
9 AM Tue 54 56 NW 16 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 57 60 NW 16 10756 9220 3528 Blue 25
11 AM Tue 60 65 NW 16 12743 11976 6284 White 30
12 Noon Tue 62 68 NW 15 13373 13129 7437 White 33
1 PM Tue 64 70 NW 14 13792 13792 8100 White 35
2 PM Tue 65 70 NW 13 13792 13792 8100 White 35
3 PM Tue 66 70 NW 14 13792 13792 8100 White 35
4 PM Tue 66 69 N 14 13583 13502 7810 White 34
5 PM Tue 65 67 N 15 13164 12751 7059 White 32
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 14 12532 11486 5794 White 29
7 PM Tue 62 62 N 13 12065 10255 4563 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 60 60 N 12 10756 9220 3528 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 58 58 N 10 9823 8623 2931 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 8 9288 8452 2760 Blue 22
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 6 8470 7950 2258 Blue 19
1 AM Wed 53 53 NW 5 8302 7783 2091 Blue 18
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
3 AM Wed 51 51 NW 5 7965 7491 1799 Blue 16
4 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 7638 7201 1509 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 7638 7201 1509 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 50 50 NW 6 7796 7354 1662 Blue 15
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
8 AM Wed 54 55 NW 6 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 57 59 NW 7 10299 8801 3109 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 61 64 N 7 12532 11486 5794 White 29
11 AM Wed 64 69 N 8 13583 13502 7810 White 34
12 Noon Wed 66 71 NE 9 13997 13997 8305 White 36
1 PM Wed 68 73 E 10 14409 14409 8717 White 38
2 PM Wed 69 73 SE 10 14409 14409 8717 White 38
3 PM Wed 70 73 SE 10 14409 14409 8717 White 38
4 PM Wed 70 72 S 9 14203 14203 8511 White 37
5 PM Wed 69 70 SW 9 13792 13792 8100 White 35
6 PM Wed 67 67 SW 9 13164 12751 7059 White 32
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 12743 11976 6284 White 30
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 12321 10588 4896 White 28
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 11664 9742 4050 Blue 26
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 10756 9220 3528 Blue 25
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 9823 8623 2931 Blue 23
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 W 7 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 7 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
2 AM Thu 54 54 W 6 8470 7950 2258 Blue 19
3 AM Thu 53 53 W 6 8302 7783 2091 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
6 AM Thu 53 53 W 5 8302 7783 2091 Blue 18
7 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
8 AM Thu 57 58 SW 5 9823 8623 2931 Blue 23
9 AM Thu 60 62 SW 6 12065 10255 4563 Blue 27
10 AM Thu 63 67 S 8 13164 12751 7059 White 32
11 AM Thu 66 71 SE 10 13997 13997 8305 White 36
12 Noon Thu 68 74 S 10 14614 14614 8922 White 39
1 PM Thu 70 76 SW 10 15024 15024 9332 White 41
2 PM Thu 71 76 SW 10 15024 15024 9332 White 41
3 PM Thu 71 75 SW 10 14819 14819 9127 White 40
4 PM Thu 71 74 SW 9 14614 14614 8922 White 39
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 9 13997 13997 8305 White 36
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 13373 13129 7437 White 33
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 12953 12367 6675 White 31
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 12532 11486 5794 White 29
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 12065 10255 4563 Blue 27
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 11664 9742 4050 Blue 26
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 10299 8801 3109 Blue 24
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NW 7 9823 8623 2931 Blue 23
1 AM Fri 56 56 NW 7 8822 8285 2593 Blue 21
2 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 53 53 NW 6 8302 7783 2091 Blue 18
4 AM Fri 52 52 NW 6 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 52 52 NW 6 8133 7628 1936 Blue 17
6 AM Fri 53 53 NW 6 8302 7783 2091 Blue 18
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 6 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
8 AM Fri 58 59 N 6 10299 8801 3109 Blue 24
9 AM Fri 61 63 N 7 12321 10588 4896 White 28
10 AM Fri 64 68 NE 8 13373 13129 7437 White 33
11 AM Fri 67 72 E 9 14203 14203 8511 White 37
12 Noon Fri 69 74 E 10 14614 14614 8922 White 39
1 PM Fri 71 76 E 12 15024 15024 9332 White 41
2 PM Fri 72 76 E 13 15024 15024 9332 White 41
3 PM Fri 72 75 SE 13 14819 14819 9127 White 40
4 PM Fri 72 74 SW 12 14614 14614 8922 White 39
5 PM Fri 71 72 W 10 14203 14203 8511 White 37
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 13792 13792 8100 White 35
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 13583 13502 7810 White 34
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 13164 12751 7059 White 32
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 12743 11976 6284 White 30
10 PM Fri 63 63 W 8 12321 10588 4896 White 28
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 11664 9742 4050 Blue 26
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 7 10299 8801 3109 Blue 24
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 7 9823 8623 2931 Blue 23
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 6 9288 8452 2760 Blue 22
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 6 8642 8118 2426 Blue 20
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 6 8470 7950 2258 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com