Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 13 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 14 6093 5692 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 56 57 NW 15 6922 6355 663 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 60 63 NW 15 8491 7685 1993 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 63 67 NW 15 9522 8722 3030 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 67 72 NW 14 11081 9992 4300 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 69 75 NW 13 11646 11046 5354 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 71 77 NW 12 12125 11421 5729 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 72 77 NW 12 12125 11421 5729 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 73 77 NW 13 12125 11421 5729 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 73 76 N 14 11864 11233 5541 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 72 73 N 14 11270 10609 4917 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 70 70 N 13 10703 9487 3795 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 67 67 N 12 9522 8722 3030 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 64 64 N 10 8750 7946 2254 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 62 62 N 10 8230 7452 1760 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 60 60 N 9 7704 6902 1210 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 9 6922 6355 663 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 55 55 N 8 6523 6090 398 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 8 6361 5692 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 6093 5692 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 8 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 8 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 8 6218 5692 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 58 58 NW 9 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 63 64 NW 9 8750 7946 2254 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 68 71 NW 9 10892 9740 4048 Blue 20
10 AM Mon 71 76 NW 9 11864 11233 5541 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 75 81 NW 9 14196 12505 6813 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 77 84 NW 9 16189 14052 8360 Blue 33
1 PM Mon 80 87 NW 10 19476 15948 10256 White 36
2 PM Mon 81 88 NW 10 19670 16594 10902 White 37
3 PM Mon 82 87 NW 10 19476 15948 10256 White 36
4 PM Mon 82 85 NW 12 16838 14538 8846 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 81 83 NW 12 15502 13552 7860 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 79 80 NW 12 13692 12068 6376 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 76 76 NW 10 11864 11233 5541 Blue 25
8 PM Mon 73 73 NW 9 11270 10609 4917 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 71 71 NW 8 10892 9740 4048 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 68 68 NW 7 9776 8979 3287 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 66 66 NW 6 9266 8465 2773 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NW 6 8491 7685 1993 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 61 61 NW 5 7968 7236 1544 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 56 56 NW 5 6685 6215 523 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 3 6361 5692 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 3 6361 5692 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 56 56 NW 3 6685 6215 523 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 61 61 NW 3 7968 7236 1544 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 66 67 W 3 9522 8722 3030 Blue 16
9 AM Tue 71 74 W 3 11458 10858 5166 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 75 79 W 3 13172 11808 6116 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 79 84 SW 5 16189 14052 8360 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 81 87 SW 6 19476 15948 10256 White 36
1 PM Tue 82 88 SW 7 19670 16594 10902 White 37
2 PM Tue 83 88 SW 8 19670 16594 10902 White 37
3 PM Tue 84 88 SW 9 19670 16594 10902 White 37
4 PM Tue 84 86 SW 10 17663 15263 9571 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 83 84 SW 10 16189 14052 8360 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 80 80 SW 10 13692 12068 6376 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 10 11864 11233 5541 Blue 25
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 9 11081 9992 4300 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 8 10030 9234 3542 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 7 9522 8722 3030 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 65 65 W 6 9009 8206 2514 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NW 5 8491 7685 1993 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 7968 7236 1544 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 3 7467 6678 986 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 6922 6355 663 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 6685 6215 523 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 6685 6215 523 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 7968 7236 1544 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 65 66 E 7 9266 8465 2773 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 70 72 SE 7 11081 9992 4300 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 74 77 SE 8 12125 11421 5729 Blue 26
11 AM Wed 78 82 S 9 14768 13037 7345 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 81 86 S 10 17663 15263 9571 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 82 87 S 13 19476 15948 10256 White 36
2 PM Wed 83 87 S 14 19476 15948 10256 White 36
3 PM Wed 83 86 SW 15 17663 15263 9571 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 82 84 SW 16 16189 14052 8360 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 80 81 SW 16 14196 12505 6813 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 15 12635 11607 5915 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 14 11864 11233 5541 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 12 11270 10609 4917 Blue 22
9 PM Wed 70 70 N 9 10703 9487 3795 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 67 67 N 7 9522 8722 3030 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 6 8750 7946 2254 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 6 7968 7236 1544 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 6523 6090 398 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 6218 5692 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 8 6093 5692 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 9 6093 5692 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 9 6361 5692 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 10 6922 6355 663 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 60 61 E 10 7968 7236 1544 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 64 66 SE 10 9266 8465 2773 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 68 72 SE 12 11081 9992 4300 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 71 76 S 12 11864 11233 5541 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 74 80 S 13 13692 12068 6376 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 75 81 S 13 14196 12505 6813 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 76 81 S 14 14196 12505 6813 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 76 80 SW 15 13692 12068 6376 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 75 78 SW 15 12635 11607 5915 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 74 75 SW 15 11646 11046 5354 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 72 72 SW 14 11081 9992 4300 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 13 10030 9234 3542 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 9266 8465 2773 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 63 63 NW 9 8491 7685 1993 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 60 60 NW 8 7704 6902 1210 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 57 57 NW 7 6922 6355 663 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NW 7 6361 5692 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 7 6093 5692 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 50 50 N 8 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 8 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 9 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 N 9 5007 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 5709 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 8 6218 5692 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 57 58 NW 8 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 61 64 NW 8 8750 7946 2254 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 65 69 NW 7 10030 9234 3542 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 68 73 NW 7 11270 10609 4917 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 71 77 NW 7 12125 11421 5729 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 74 80 W 8 13692 12068 6376 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 76 82 W 8 14768 13037 7345 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 77 82 W 8 14768 13037 7345 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 77 80 SW 9 13692 12068 6376 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 76 78 SW 9 12635 11607 5915 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 75 75 SW 9 11646 11046 5354 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 73 73 S 9 11270 10609 4917 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 70 70 S 9 10703 9487 3795 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 67 67 S 8 9522 8722 3030 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 64 64 SE 8 8750 7946 2254 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 60 60 SE 8 7704 6902 1210 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SE 8 7249 6517 825 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 55 55 E 8 6523 6090 398 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 53 53 E 8 6218 5692 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 52 52 E 8 6093 5692 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 8 6093 5692 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com