Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 W 10 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 SW 10 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 SW 12 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 67 70 SW 13 5470 4846 76 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 71 76 SW 8 7056 6110 1340 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 74 80 SW 10 9430 7351 2581 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 77 83 SW 15 11018 8922 4152 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 79 85 SW 14 11206 10927 6157 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 79 83 SW 16 11018 8922 4152 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 79 82 W 15 10944 8456 3686 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 78 79 W 17 8494 7025 2255 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 17 6751 5868 1098 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 18 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 18 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 16 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 65 65 SW 15 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 16 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 15 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 13 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 10 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 8 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SW 9 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 16 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 W 18 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 W 14 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 W 18 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 67 W 18 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 67 72 W 20 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 69 75 W 20 6751 5868 1098 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 71 77 W 20 7994 6417 1647 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 72 78 W 22 8244 6722 1952 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 72 76 W 22 7056 6110 1340 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 71 74 W 22 6443 5664 894 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 70 71 W 26 5676 5047 277 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 26 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 26 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 23 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 23 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 23 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 15 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 15 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 W 15 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 NW 9 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 9 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 9 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NW 8 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 8 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 N 10 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 N 10 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 67 N 10 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 67 72 NE 13 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 69 75 NE 13 6751 5868 1098 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 71 77 NE 13 7994 6417 1647 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 73 79 NE 10 8494 7025 2255 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 74 78 NE 10 8244 6722 1952 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 75 78 NE 10 8244 6722 1952 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 75 76 SE 6 7056 6110 1340 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 74 74 SE 6 6443 5664 894 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 71 71 SE 6 5676 5047 277 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 69 69 NW 6 5263 4770 0 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 6 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 4652 4770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 6 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 6 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 63 63 NW 6 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 6 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 NW 6 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NW 6 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NW 6 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NW 6 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 NW 6 2500 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 N 6 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 66 67 N 6 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 69 72 N 6 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 72 77 NE 9 7994 6417 1647 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 75 81 NE 9 10862 8209 3439 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 77 83 NE 9 11018 8922 4152 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 79 85 E 10 11206 10927 6157 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 80 84 E 10 11101 10735 5965 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 80 83 E 10 11018 8922 4152 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 80 81 SE 6 10862 8209 3439 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 77 77 SE 6 7994 6417 1647 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 74 74 SE 6 6443 5664 894 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 71 71 SW 5 5676 5047 277 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 69 69 SW 5 5263 4770 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 5 5263 4770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 6 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 W 6 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 67 67 W 6 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 4652 4770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 6 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 63 63 N 6 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 6 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 69 70 N 6 5470 4846 76 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 72 75 N 6 6751 5868 1098 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 75 80 S 9 9430 7351 2581 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 78 84 S 9 11101 10735 5965 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 80 86 S 9 11312 11000 6230 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 82 88 SE 17 11626 11181 6411 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 83 87 SE 17 11436 11075 6305 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 83 86 SE 17 11312 11000 6230 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 82 83 SW 18 11018 8922 4152 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 80 80 SW 18 9430 7351 2581 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 18 7994 6417 1647 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 74 74 SW 15 6443 5664 894 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 15 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 15 5470 4846 76 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 69 69 SW 15 5263 4770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SW 15 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 15 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 67 67 W 13 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 13 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 13 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 63 63 SW 13 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SW 13 4049 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 SW 13 4251 4770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 65 65 W 15 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 67 68 W 15 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 69 72 W 15 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 72 76 SW 22 7056 6110 1340 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 74 79 SW 22 8494 7025 2255 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 77 82 SW 22 10944 8456 3686 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 78 83 SW 21 11018 8922 4152 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 78 82 SW 21 10944 8456 3686 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 78 80 SW 21 9430 7351 2581 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 17 8244 6722 1952 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 17 6751 5868 1098 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 17 5882 5253 483 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 14 5470 4846 76 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 14 5263 4770 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 14 5056 4770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 67 67 N 13 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 N 13 4853 4770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 66 66 N 13 4652 4770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 66 66 N 10 4652 4770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 65 65 N 10 4452 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 64 64 N 10 4251 4770 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com