Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 8 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 S 8 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 S 8 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 N 18 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 N 18 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 66 69 N 18 8238 7467 2697 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 69 73 NE 14 8700 8336 3566 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 71 76 NE 14 9143 8681 3911 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 73 79 NE 14 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 74 79 NE 12 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 75 79 NE 12 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 75 77 NE 12 9408 8797 4027 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 75 76 NE 15 9143 8681 3911 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 73 73 NE 15 8700 8336 3566 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 70 70 NE 15 8353 7991 3221 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 68 68 N 7 8122 6780 2010 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 66 66 N 7 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 64 64 N 7 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 12 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 N 12 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 12 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 SW 9 3890 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 SW 9 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 SW 9 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 2497 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 3099 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 18 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 66 N 18 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 68 71 N 18 8469 8106 3336 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 71 75 NE 22 8931 8566 3796 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 73 79 NE 22 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 75 81 NE 22 10566 9627 4857 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 76 81 NE 18 10566 9627 4857 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 77 81 NE 18 10566 9627 4857 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 77 79 NE 18 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 76 77 NW 7 9408 8797 4027 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 74 74 NW 7 8816 8451 3681 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 8584 8221 3451 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 69 69 NW 7 8238 7467 2697 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 67 67 NW 7 8007 6053 1283 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 12 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 12 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 12 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 62 62 N 12 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 N 12 3890 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 12 3890 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 10 3099 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 10 3099 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 10 3890 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 N 10 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 66 67 N 10 8007 6053 1283 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 70 73 N 10 8700 8336 3566 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 74 78 NE 12 9685 8912 4142 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 77 83 NE 12 11141 10213 5443 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 78 84 NE 12 11425 10502 5732 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 79 84 NE 12 11425 10502 5732 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 80 84 NE 12 11425 10502 5732 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 80 82 NE 12 10854 9922 5152 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 79 80 NE 8 10275 9359 4589 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 77 77 NE 8 9408 8797 4027 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 74 74 NE 8 8816 8451 3681 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 72 72 NE 8 8584 8221 3451 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 70 70 NE 8 8353 7991 3221 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 68 68 NE 8 8122 6780 2010 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 67 67 S 5 8007 6053 1283 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 S 5 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 65 65 S 5 6850 4770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 64 64 S 5 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 63 63 S 5 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 7 3890 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 7 3890 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 S 7 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 S 7 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 68 69 S 7 8238 7467 2697 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 72 75 S 7 8931 8566 3796 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 75 79 NE 9 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 78 84 NE 9 11425 10502 5732 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 79 85 NE 9 11708 10788 6018 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 80 85 NE 9 11708 10788 6018 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 81 85 NE 9 11708 10788 6018 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 82 84 NE 9 11425 10502 5732 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 81 82 E 6 10854 9922 5152 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 79 79 E 6 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 76 76 E 6 9143 8681 3911 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 73 73 E 6 8700 8336 3566 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 71 71 E 6 8469 8106 3336 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 70 70 E 6 8353 7991 3221 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 8238 7467 2697 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NW 6 8122 6780 2010 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 67 67 NW 6 8007 6053 1283 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 65 65 NW 6 6850 4770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 64 64 NW 6 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 63 63 NW 6 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 62 62 N 8 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 N 8 4633 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 8 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 65 65 N 8 6850 4770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 69 70 N 8 8353 7991 3221 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 73 76 N 8 9143 8681 3911 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 77 81 NE 6 10566 9627 4857 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 79 85 NE 6 11708 10788 6018 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 81 87 NE 6 12267 11354 6584 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 82 87 NE 6 12267 11354 6584 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 83 87 NE 6 12267 11354 6584 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 83 85 NE 6 11708 10788 6018 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 82 83 SW 5 11141 10213 5443 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 79 79 SW 5 9981 9096 4326 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 76 76 SW 5 9143 8681 3911 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 73 73 SW 5 8700 8336 3566 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 71 71 SW 5 8469 8106 3336 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 8238 7467 2697 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 69 69 NW 7 8238 7467 2697 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 NW 7 8122 6780 2010 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 67 67 NW 7 8007 6053 1283 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 66 66 NW 7 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 65 65 NW 7 6850 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 64 64 NW 7 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 63 63 NW 8 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 63 63 NW 8 5318 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 64 64 NW 8 6109 4770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 66 66 NW 8 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 69 70 NW 8 8353 7991 3221 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 73 76 NW 8 9143 8681 3911 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 77 81 E 5 10566 9627 4857 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 80 85 E 5 11708 10788 6018 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 82 88 E 5 12543 11634 6864 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 83 88 E 5 12543 11634 6864 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 84 88 E 5 12543 11634 6864 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 84 86 E 5 11988 11072 6302 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 83 84 W 8 11425 10502 5732 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 10275 9359 4589 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 8 9408 8797 4027 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 8816 8451 3681 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 8700 8336 3566 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 8584 8221 3451 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 6 8469 8106 3336 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NW 6 8353 7991 3221 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 68 68 NW 6 8122 6780 2010 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 67 67 NW 6 8007 6053 1283 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 66 66 NW 6 7549 5278 508 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 65 65 NW 6 6850 4770 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com