Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 74 74 W 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 NW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 W 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 77 W 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 82 W 10 4768 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 87 S 12 7252 5723 953 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 85 92 SW 15 11181 8131 3361 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 87 95 SW 18 11699 10995 6225 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 89 98 SW 20 12943 11656 6886 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 90 98 SW 22 12943 11656 6886 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 91 98 SW 22 12943 11656 6886 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 91 96 SW 22 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 90 93 SW 23 11354 8609 3839 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 88 89 SW 22 8194 6720 1950 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 86 86 W 21 6765 5205 435 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 20 4768 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 80 80 SW 18 3939 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 78 78 SW 16 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 SW 15 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 SW 15 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 W 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 75 W 13 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 W 12 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 W 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 W 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 73 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 79 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 84 SW 10 5755 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 83 89 S 13 8194 6720 1950 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 86 94 S 13 11527 9877 5107 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 88 96 S 13 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 89 96 SW 20 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 90 96 SW 20 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 20 11527 9877 5107 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 89 92 SW 23 11181 8131 3361 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 87 88 SW 23 7728 6228 1458 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 85 85 SW 23 6266 4770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 18 4768 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 18 3939 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 SW 18 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 77 SW 12 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 SW 12 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 SW 12 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 77 SW 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 79 81 SW 8 4357 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 82 87 S 16 7252 5723 953 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 84 90 S 16 8828 7201 2431 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 87 93 S 16 11354 8609 3839 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 88 96 SW 22 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 89 96 SW 22 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 89 94 SW 22 11527 9877 5107 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 88 91 SW 24 10105 7671 2901 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 86 87 SW 24 7252 5723 953 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 84 84 SW 24 5755 4770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 81 81 SW 18 4357 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 18 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 18 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 SW 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 SW 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 SW 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 SW 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 74 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 78 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 85 S 15 6266 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 82 87 S 15 7252 5723 953 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 85 91 S 15 10105 7671 2901 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 86 93 SW 20 11354 8609 3839 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 87 93 SW 20 11354 8609 3839 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 88 92 SW 20 11181 8131 3361 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 87 90 SW 22 8828 7201 2431 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 85 86 SW 22 6765 5205 435 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 83 83 SW 22 5229 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 80 80 SW 21 3939 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 78 78 SW 21 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 SW 21 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 SW 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 SW 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 SW 14 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 S 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 77 S 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 82 S 10 4768 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 80 87 S 14 7252 5723 953 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 83 91 S 14 10105 7671 2901 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 85 94 S 14 11527 9877 5107 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 87 95 S 18 11699 10995 6225 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 88 95 S 18 11699 10995 6225 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 88 93 S 18 11354 8609 3839 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 87 90 SW 20 8828 7201 2431 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 85 86 SW 20 6765 5205 435 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 83 83 SW 20 5229 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 81 81 SW 18 4357 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 79 79 SW 18 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 78 78 SW 18 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 76 SW 13 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SW 13 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 SW 13 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 W 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 W 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 9 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 W 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 W 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 S 7 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 79 S 7 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 84 S 7 5755 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 82 89 S 10 8194 6720 1950 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 84 92 S 10 11181 8131 3361 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 86 94 S 10 11527 9877 5107 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 88 96 S 14 11871 11312 6542 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 89 95 S 14 11699 10995 6225 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 90 95 S 14 11699 10995 6225 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 90 92 S 16 11181 8131 3361 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 89 90 S 16 8828 7201 2431 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 86 86 S 16 6765 5205 435 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 84 84 SW 16 5755 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 82 82 SW 16 4768 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 80 80 SW 16 3939 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 79 79 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 77 77 SW 10 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 W 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 W 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 W 8 3678 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com