Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 42 42 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 41 41 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 40 40 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 44 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 47 48 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 50 52 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 53 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 57 59 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 59 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 60 61 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 59 59 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 47 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 46 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 45 45 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 39 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 41 41 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 43 44 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 45 47 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 47 49 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 49 51 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 50 51 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 50 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 49 49 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 47 47 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 45 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 43 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 42 42 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 42 42 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 42 42 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 43 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 49 51 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 51 53 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 52 54 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 54 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 51 51 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 49 49 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 43 43 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 43 43 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 51 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 54 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 55 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 46 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 50 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 53 55 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 58 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 57 58 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 57 58 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 53 53 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 41 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 51 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 56 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 56 58 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 58 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 59 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 57 57 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 56 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 54 54 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 51 51 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com