Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 46 46 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 46 46 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 46 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 49 49 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 50 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 51 51 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 53 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 53 53 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 54 54 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 54 54 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 53 53 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 47 47 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 46 46 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 46 46 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 44 44 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 47 48 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 49 51 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 51 52 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 52 53 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 45 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 44 44 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 43 43 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 42 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 54 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 55 57 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 57 57 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 56 56 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 49 49 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 54 55 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 57 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 57 58 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 59 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 59 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 58 58 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 54 54 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 48 48 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 45 45 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 46 48 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 47 49 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 51 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 49 51 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 50 51 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 51 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 38 38 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 41 42 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 44 46 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 46 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 48 51 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 49 51 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 50 52 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 50 51 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com