Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 6 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 SW 7 4931 4770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 57 58 SW 9 7329 5296 526 White 8
11 AM Tue 60 61 SW 10 7980 7062 2292 White 11
12 Noon Tue 63 65 SW 14 8844 8844 4074 White 15
1 PM Tue 65 67 SW 15 9274 9274 4504 White 17
2 PM Tue 66 68 SW 17 9485 9485 4715 White 18
3 PM Tue 67 70 SW 18 9910 9910 5140 White 20
4 PM Tue 67 69 SW 18 9696 9696 4926 White 19
5 PM Tue 66 66 SW 18 9059 9059 4289 White 16
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 17 8844 8844 4074 White 15
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 14 8197 7609 2839 White 12
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 13 7546 5907 1137 White 9
9 PM Tue 57 57 SW 10 6548 4918 148 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 10 4931 4770 0 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 53 53 SW 10 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SW 10 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 10 4410 4770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 50 50 SW 10 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 SW 10 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 SW 10 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 10 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SW 10 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SW 12 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SW 13 4071 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 54 54 SW 15 4931 4770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 57 58 SW 16 7329 5296 526 White 8
11 AM Wed 60 62 SW 18 8197 7609 2839 White 12
12 Noon Wed 62 64 SW 21 8628 8628 3858 White 14
1 PM Wed 63 65 SW 22 8844 8844 4074 White 15
2 PM Wed 63 65 SW 23 8844 8844 4074 White 15
3 PM Wed 63 65 SW 24 8844 8844 4074 White 15
4 PM Wed 62 63 SW 24 8412 8139 3369 White 13
5 PM Wed 61 61 SW 24 7980 7062 2292 White 11
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 23 7546 5907 1137 White 9
7 PM Wed 57 57 SW 21 6548 4918 148 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 55 55 SW 18 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 53 53 SW 18 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 51 51 SW 18 4071 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 18 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 18 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 18 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SW 18 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SW 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SW 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 W 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 W 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 W 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 W 18 4071 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 53 55 W 20 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 55 59 W 21 7546 5907 1137 White 9
12 Noon Thu 57 62 W 22 8197 7609 2839 White 12
1 PM Thu 58 63 W 24 8412 8139 3369 White 13
2 PM Thu 59 63 W 25 8412 8139 3369 White 13
3 PM Thu 59 62 W 26 8197 7609 2839 White 12
4 PM Thu 58 60 W 28 7763 6495 1725 White 10
5 PM Thu 57 58 W 28 7329 5296 526 White 8
6 PM Thu 55 55 W 26 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 25 4410 4770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 24 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 23 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 21 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 20 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 W 18 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 W 17 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 W 16 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 16 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 15 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 14 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 14 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 NW 13 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 NW 12 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 54 N 10 4931 4770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 54 59 N 10 7546 5907 1137 White 9
12 Noon Fri 57 63 N 10 8412 8139 3369 White 13
1 PM Fri 59 65 NW 10 8844 8844 4074 White 15
2 PM Fri 61 66 NW 12 9059 9059 4289 White 16
3 PM Fri 62 66 NW 13 9059 9059 4289 White 16
4 PM Fri 62 65 W 13 8844 8844 4074 White 15
5 PM Fri 62 63 W 15 8412 8139 3369 White 13
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 15 7763 6495 1725 White 10
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 15 7329 5296 526 White 8
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 15 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 15 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 15 4071 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 14 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 14 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 14 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 14 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NW 14 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NW 14 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 13 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 13 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 13 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 55 58 N 13 7329 5296 526 White 8
11 AM Sat 58 63 NE 22 8412 8139 3369 White 13
12 Noon Sat 60 66 NE 22 9059 9059 4289 White 16
1 PM Sat 62 68 NE 22 9485 9485 4715 White 18
2 PM Sat 63 68 NE 22 9485 9485 4715 White 18
3 PM Sat 64 68 NE 22 9485 9485 4715 White 18
4 PM Sat 64 67 NE 22 9274 9274 4504 White 17
5 PM Sat 64 65 N 15 8844 8844 4074 White 15
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 15 8197 7609 2839 White 12
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 15 7763 6495 1725 White 10
8 PM Sat 57 57 N 15 6548 4918 148 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 15 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 15 4931 4770 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 13 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 13 4410 4770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 13 4071 4770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 13 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 13 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 13 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 10 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 10 3671 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 N 10 3740 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 4071 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 10 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 58 61 N 10 7980 7062 2292 White 11
11 AM Sun 61 66 NE 12 9059 9059 4289 White 16
12 Noon Sun 64 70 NE 12 9910 9910 5140 White 20
1 PM Sun 66 72 NE 12 10353 10353 5583 White 22
2 PM Sun 67 73 NE 12 10562 10562 5792 White 23
3 PM Sun 68 72 NE 12 10353 10353 5583 White 22
4 PM Sun 68 71 NE 12 10143 10143 5373 White 21
5 PM Sun 67 68 SE 1 9485 9485 4715 White 18
6 PM Sun 65 65 SE 1 8844 8844 4074 White 15
7 PM Sun 62 62 SE 1 8197 7609 2839 White 12
8 PM Sun 60 60 SE 1 7763 6495 1725 White 10
9 PM Sun 58 58 SE 1 7329 5296 526 White 8
10 PM Sun 57 57 SE 1 6548 4918 148 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 5950 4770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 8 5327 4770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 8 4931 4770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 8 4674 4770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 8 4410 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 8 4071 4770 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com