Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 WNW 4 12 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 NW 8 16 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NNW 8 17 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 NNW 8 14 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 NW 9 12 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 NNW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 NNW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 N 11 14 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 NNE 11 16 5618 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 75 78 NNE 10 13 8742 8187 3417 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 78 83 ENE 9 10 12537 9954 5184 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 80 87 SE 10 12 14274 13091 8321 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 83 91 SSE 10 14 15686 14499 9729 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 85 93 S 10 16 16715 15176 10406 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 85 93 S 11 17 16715 15176 10406 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 86 92 S 12 18 16209 14840 10070 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 86 90 S 13 19 15304 14155 9385 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 86 88 SSW 13 19 14622 13603 8833 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 85 85 SSW 14 20 13684 11552 6782 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 13 20 10907 8715 3945 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 19 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 18 6671 4770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 11 18 4073 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 W 11 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 11 17 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 12 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 WNW 11 16 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 NW 10 13 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 NNW 10 13 6671 4770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 77 80 S 9 12 10073 8539 3769 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 80 85 S 8 11 13684 11552 6782 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 83 90 S 10 13 15304 14155 9385 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 85 93 S 10 13 16715 15176 10406 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 86 94 S 10 13 17036 15508 10738 White 23
2 PM Thu 87 94 S 12 17 17036 15508 10738 White 23
3 PM Thu 88 94 S 12 17 17036 15508 10738 White 23
4 PM Thu 87 91 S 12 17 15686 14499 9729 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 86 88 SW 16 19 14622 13603 8833 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 16 19 12537 9954 5184 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 16 19 10073 8539 3769 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 12 23 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 12 23 6671 4770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 12 23 4279 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 13 19 3866 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 13 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 W 13 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 13 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 13 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 13 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 12 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 W 12 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 W 12 18 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 W 13 19 4279 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 77 W 13 19 8565 7507 2737 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 78 83 W 13 19 12537 9954 5184 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 81 88 SSW 10 16 14622 13603 8833 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 84 92 SSW 10 16 16209 14840 10070 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 86 94 SSW 10 16 17036 15508 10738 White 23
2 PM Fri 87 95 SW 14 23 17235 15997 11227 White 24
3 PM Fri 87 93 SW 14 23 16715 15176 10406 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 86 90 SW 14 23 15304 14155 9385 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 84 86 W 21 31 13937 12327 7557 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 21 31 10907 8715 3945 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 21 31 8565 7507 2737 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 14 29 6671 4770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 14 29 4073 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 14 29 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 16 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 WSW 16 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 16 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 16 24 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 16 24 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 16 24 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 13 21 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 13 21 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 13 21 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 SW 17 27 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 71 SW 17 27 4279 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 77 SW 17 27 8565 7507 2737 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 75 81 SW 18 29 10907 8715 3945 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 77 84 SW 18 29 13357 10710 5940 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 78 86 SW 18 29 13937 12327 7557 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 78 85 WSW 18 31 13684 11552 6782 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 78 83 WSW 18 31 12537 9954 5184 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 76 80 WSW 18 31 10073 8539 3769 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 74 76 WSW 21 33 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 21 33 4279 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 21 33 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 16 28 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 16 28 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 16 28 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 14 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 WSW 14 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 14 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 16 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 16 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 16 26 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 13 21 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 13 21 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 13 21 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 WSW 16 23 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 65 WSW 16 23 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 71 WSW 16 23 4279 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 72 WSW 12 17 5618 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 73 75 WSW 12 17 8211 5560 790 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 74 76 WSW 12 17 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 75 77 W 14 19 8565 7507 2737 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 76 77 W 14 19 8565 7507 2737 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 75 76 W 14 19 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 74 76 W 18 25 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 71 71 W 18 25 4279 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 18 25 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 11 24 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 W 11 24 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 11 24 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 13 20 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 WSW 13 20 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 WSW 13 20 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 13 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 WSW 13 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 13 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 12 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 12 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 WSW 12 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 WSW 13 19 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 69 WSW 13 19 3866 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 76 WSW 13 19 8388 6587 1817 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 75 82 SSW 12 17 11756 9169 4399 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 78 86 SSW 12 17 13937 12327 7557 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 80 88 SSW 12 17 14622 13603 8833 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 81 88 SW 13 20 14622 13603 8833 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 82 88 SW 13 20 14622 13603 8833 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 82 86 SW 13 20 13937 12327 7557 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 80 82 W 19 26 11756 9169 4399 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 77 77 W 19 26 8565 7507 2737 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 73 73 W 19 26 6671 4770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 13 25 3866 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 13 25 3684 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 W 13 25 3684 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com