Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 50 SW 15 6400 6213 1443 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 49 49 SW 18 6270 6154 1384 White 8
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 21 6400 6213 1443 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 50 51 SW 22 6563 6272 1502 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 51 51 SW 22 6563 6272 1502 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 52 52 SW 24 6711 6332 1562 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 52 53 SW 26 6872 6391 1621 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 53 56 SW 26 7375 6853 2083 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 53 55 SW 28 7230 6696 1926 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 54 57 SW 29 7509 7032 2262 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 54 55 SW 28 7230 6696 1926 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 53 53 SW 30 6872 6391 1621 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 52 52 SW 28 6711 6332 1562 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 51 51 SW 26 6563 6272 1502 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 50 50 SW 23 6400 6213 1443 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 48 48 W 22 6051 5325 555 White 7
9 PM Sun 47 47 SW 21 5833 5206 436 White 6
10 PM Sun 46 46 SW 20 5614 5087 317 White 5
11 PM Sun 45 45 SW 21 5331 4969 199 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 22 5331 4969 199 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 21 5173 4770 0 White 3
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 21 4953 4770 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 23 4953 4770 0 White 2
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 22 4732 4770 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 4732 4770 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 W 18 4732 4770 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 18 5173 4770 0 White 3
8 AM Mon 47 49 W 17 6270 6154 1384 White 8
9 AM Mon 49 52 W 15 6711 6332 1562 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 52 58 W 15 7643 7210 2440 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 54 61 W 16 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 56 65 W 16 8802 8269 3499 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 58 67 W 16 9731 8598 3828 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 60 68 W 16 10247 8773 4003 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 61 67 W 17 9731 8598 3828 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 60 64 W 20 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 59 61 W 21 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 58 59 W 22 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 22 7375 6853 2083 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 21 7051 6549 1779 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 20 6711 6332 1562 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 51 51 W 17 6563 6272 1502 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 15 6563 6272 1502 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 13 6400 6213 1443 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 10 6400 6213 1443 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 9 6270 6154 1384 White 8
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 6051 5325 555 White 7
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 6051 5325 555 White 7
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 8 5833 5206 436 White 6
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 8 5833 5206 436 White 6
7 AM Tue 50 50 W 7 6400 6213 1443 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 53 55 W 7 7230 6696 1926 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 56 59 W 7 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 59 64 NW 8 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 62 67 NW 8 9731 8598 3828 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 65 71 NW 8 11027 10190 5420 White 29
1 PM Tue 67 73 W 8 11445 11220 6450 White 31
2 PM Tue 70 76 W 9 12065 12065 7295 White 34
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 10 12065 12065 7295 White 34
4 PM Tue 70 73 W 13 11445 11220 6450 White 31
5 PM Tue 69 71 W 14 11027 10190 5420 White 29
6 PM Tue 68 69 W 15 10608 9121 4351 White 27
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 16 9215 8433 3663 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 16 8459 7941 3171 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 15 8294 7777 3007 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 14 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 13 7964 7492 2722 Blue 19
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 12 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 10 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
2 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 7643 7210 2440 Blue 17
3 AM Wed 57 57 W 9 7509 7032 2262 Blue 16
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 8 7509 7032 2262 Blue 16
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 8 7375 6853 2083 Blue 15
6 AM Wed 56 56 NW 7 7375 6853 2083 Blue 15
7 AM Wed 59 59 NW 6 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
8 AM Wed 61 61 NW 6 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 63 64 N 6 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 66 70 NE 6 10818 9627 4857 White 28
11 AM Wed 68 73 E 7 11445 11220 6450 White 31
12 Noon Wed 71 77 SE 8 12271 12271 7501 White 35
1 PM Wed 73 79 S 8 12679 12679 7909 White 37
2 PM Wed 75 81 SW 10 13088 13088 8318 White 39
3 PM Wed 76 80 SW 13 12884 12884 8114 White 38
4 PM Wed 75 78 SW 15 12475 12475 7705 White 36
5 PM Wed 73 75 SW 17 11860 11860 7090 White 33
6 PM Wed 72 72 SW 17 11236 10448 5678 White 30
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 17 10608 9121 4351 White 27
8 PM Wed 67 67 SW 17 9731 8598 3828 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 17 8802 8269 3499 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 17 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 8459 7941 3171 Blue 21
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 10 8294 7777 3007 Blue 20
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 10 8294 7777 3007 Blue 20
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 10 7964 7492 2722 Blue 19
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 10 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 59 59 W 10 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 7 7643 7210 2440 Blue 17
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 7 7643 7210 2440 Blue 17
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 7 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 7 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
9 AM Thu 65 68 W 7 10247 8773 4003 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 68 73 W 7 11445 11220 6450 White 31
11 AM Thu 70 75 S 10 11860 11860 7090 White 33
12 Noon Thu 73 79 S 10 12679 12679 7909 White 37
1 PM Thu 75 81 S 10 13088 13088 8318 White 39
2 PM Thu 77 83 S 10 13495 13495 8725 White 41
3 PM Thu 78 82 S 10 13291 13291 8521 White 40
4 PM Thu 77 80 S 10 12884 12884 8114 White 38
5 PM Thu 75 77 SW 18 12271 12271 7501 White 35
6 PM Thu 73 74 SW 18 11653 11653 6883 White 32
7 PM Thu 71 71 SW 18 11027 10190 5420 White 29
8 PM Thu 67 67 SW 18 9731 8598 3828 Blue 25
9 PM Thu 66 66 SW 18 9215 8433 3663 Blue 24
10 PM Thu 64 64 SW 18 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 12 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 12 8459 7941 3171 Blue 21
1 AM Fri 62 62 SW 12 8294 7777 3007 Blue 20
2 AM Fri 60 60 SW 12 7964 7492 2722 Blue 19
3 AM Fri 59 59 SW 12 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
4 AM Fri 59 59 SW 12 7799 7358 2588 Blue 18
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 9 7643 7210 2440 Blue 17
6 AM Fri 58 58 W 9 7643 7210 2440 Blue 17
7 AM Fri 61 61 W 9 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
8 AM Fri 63 64 W 9 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
9 AM Fri 65 67 W 9 9731 8598 3828 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 68 71 W 9 11027 10190 5420 White 29
11 AM Fri 70 73 S 12 11445 11220 6450 White 31
12 Noon Fri 73 76 S 12 12065 12065 7295 White 34
1 PM Fri 75 78 S 12 12475 12475 7705 White 36
2 PM Fri 77 80 S 12 12884 12884 8114 White 38
3 PM Fri 78 80 S 12 12884 12884 8114 White 38
4 PM Fri 77 79 S 12 12679 12679 7909 White 37
5 PM Fri 75 76 SW 18 12065 12065 7295 White 34
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 18 11653 11653 6883 White 32
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 18 11027 10190 5420 White 29
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 18 10247 8773 4003 Blue 26
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 18 9215 8433 3663 Blue 24
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 18 8802 8269 3499 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 12 8627 8105 3335 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 12 8459 7941 3171 Blue 21
1 AM Sat 63 63 W 12 8459 7941 3171 Blue 21
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 12 8129 7626 2856 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 12 7964 7492 2722 Blue 19
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 12 7964 7492 2722 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com