Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 NW 5 5151 4770 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 60 60 NW 5 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 62 63 W 2 6475 5922 1152 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 65 67 W 2 8517 7371 2601 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 69 73 W 2 10369 9337 4567 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 72 77 S 5 11820 10684 5914 White 26
12 Noon Tue 74 80 S 5 12447 11857 7087 White 29
1 PM Tue 75 81 S 5 12653 12214 7444 White 30
2 PM Tue 76 81 SW 8 12653 12214 7444 White 30
3 PM Tue 77 81 SW 8 12653 12214 7444 White 30
4 PM Tue 77 80 SW 8 12447 11857 7087 White 29
5 PM Tue 76 77 SW 13 11820 10684 5914 White 26
6 PM Tue 74 74 SW 13 10777 9621 4851 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 13 9677 8762 3992 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 69 69 W 15 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 15 8517 7371 2601 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 15 7925 6281 1511 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 14 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 14 6475 5922 1152 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 14 6115 5465 695 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 9 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 59 59 W 9 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 6 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 63 64 SW 3 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 66 69 SW 3 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 70 75 SW 3 11178 9904 5134 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 73 80 S 7 12447 11857 7087 White 29
12 Noon Wed 76 84 S 7 13271 13271 8501 White 33
1 PM Wed 77 85 S 7 13475 13475 8705 White 34
2 PM Wed 78 85 S 10 13475 13475 8705 White 34
3 PM Wed 78 84 S 10 13271 13271 8501 White 33
4 PM Wed 78 82 S 10 12860 12453 7683 White 31
5 PM Wed 77 79 SW 16 12239 11472 6702 White 28
6 PM Wed 75 76 SW 16 11573 10280 5510 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 16 10369 9337 4567 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 16 9677 8762 3992 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 16 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 67 67 SW 16 8517 7371 2601 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 8 8222 6459 1689 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 8 7925 6281 1511 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 6475 5922 1152 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 6295 5743 973 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 8 6115 5465 695 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 6295 5743 973 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 64 65 SW 8 7925 6281 1511 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 68 71 SW 8 9677 8762 3992 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 71 76 SW 8 11573 10280 5510 Blue 25
11 AM Thu 74 81 S 12 12653 12214 7444 White 30
12 Noon Thu 76 84 S 12 13271 13271 8501 White 33
1 PM Thu 78 86 S 12 13681 13681 8911 White 35
2 PM Thu 79 87 S 12 13883 13883 9113 White 36
3 PM Thu 79 85 S 12 13475 13475 8705 White 34
4 PM Thu 79 83 S 12 13066 12691 7921 White 32
5 PM Thu 78 80 SW 20 12447 11857 7087 White 29
6 PM Thu 75 76 SW 20 11573 10280 5510 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 20 9962 9050 4280 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 20 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 20 8517 7371 2601 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 20 7925 6281 1511 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 14 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 14 6475 5922 1152 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 62 62 SW 14 6295 5743 973 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 60 60 SW 14 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 59 59 SW 14 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 58 58 SW 14 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 58 58 SW 14 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 58 58 SW 14 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 14 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 62 63 SW 14 6475 5922 1152 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 65 68 SW 14 8810 7885 3115 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 67 72 SW 14 9962 9050 4280 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 70 77 SW 20 11820 10684 5914 White 26
12 Noon Fri 72 80 SW 20 12447 11857 7087 White 29
1 PM Fri 74 82 SW 20 12860 12453 7683 White 31
2 PM Fri 74 81 SW 20 12653 12214 7444 White 30
3 PM Fri 75 81 SW 20 12653 12214 7444 White 30
4 PM Fri 74 78 SW 20 12030 11081 6311 White 27
5 PM Fri 72 74 SW 23 10777 9621 4851 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 70 71 SW 23 9677 8762 3992 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 67 67 SW 23 8517 7371 2601 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 23 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 23 6295 5743 973 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 23 6115 5465 695 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 17 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 17 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 17 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 17 5151 4770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 56 56 W 17 4815 4770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 17 4704 4770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 54 54 W 17 4551 4770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 17 4704 4770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 17 4815 4770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 58 59 W 17 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 61 64 W 17 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 64 69 W 17 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 67 74 W 22 10777 9621 4851 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 68 76 W 22 11573 10280 5510 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 70 78 W 22 12030 11081 6311 White 27
2 PM Sat 71 78 W 22 12030 11081 6311 White 27
3 PM Sat 71 77 W 22 11820 10684 5914 White 26
4 PM Sat 70 74 W 22 10777 9621 4851 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 69 71 W 25 9677 8762 3992 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 68 69 W 25 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 25 8222 6459 1689 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 25 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 25 6295 5743 973 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 61 61 W 25 6115 5465 695 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 60 60 W 17 5935 5136 366 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 17 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 17 5484 4770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 57 57 W 17 5151 4770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 17 4704 4770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 54 54 W 17 4551 4770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 15 4551 4770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 56 56 W 15 4815 4770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 15 5754 4806 36 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 62 63 W 15 6475 5922 1152 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 66 69 W 15 9101 8179 3409 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 69 74 W 15 10777 9621 4851 Blue 23
11 AM Sun 72 79 W 12 12239 11472 6702 White 28
12 Noon Sun 74 82 W 12 12860 12453 7683 White 31
1 PM Sun 76 84 W 12 13271 13271 8501 White 33
2 PM Sun 77 84 W 12 13271 13271 8501 White 33
3 PM Sun 78 84 W 12 13271 13271 8501 White 33
4 PM Sun 78 82 W 12 12860 12453 7683 White 31
5 PM Sun 78 80 W 14 12447 11857 7087 White 29
6 PM Sun 76 77 W 14 11820 10684 5914 White 26
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 14 10777 9621 4851 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 14 9962 9050 4280 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 14 9390 8472 3702 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 14 8810 7885 3115 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 8222 6459 1689 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 10 7925 6281 1511 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 10 7925 6281 1511 Blue 14
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 10 7435 6102 1332 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 10 6295 5743 973 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 61 61 W 10 6115 5465 695 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com