Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 75 75 S 6 5273 4770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 75 75 S 6 5273 4770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 76 76 S 6 5515 4770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 78 79 SW 7 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 81 83 SW 7 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 83 87 SW 7 9342 8811 4041 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 86 91 S 8 11761 9481 4711 White 21
12 Noon Sat 88 94 S 8 12391 12391 7621 White 24
1 PM Sat 90 97 S 8 13018 13018 8248 White 27
2 PM Sat 91 97 S 12 13018 13018 8248 White 27
3 PM Sat 92 97 S 12 13018 13018 8248 White 27
4 PM Sat 92 96 S 12 12809 12809 8039 White 26
5 PM Sat 91 93 SW 18 12181 10284 5514 White 23
6 PM Sat 89 90 SW 18 11550 9313 4543 White 20
7 PM Sat 87 87 SW 18 9342 8811 4041 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 84 84 W 15 8838 8308 3538 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 15 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 82 82 W 15 8501 7650 2880 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 81 81 W 9 8332 6659 1889 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 W 9 8163 5741 971 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 78 78 W 9 6757 5262 492 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 77 77 SW 7 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 75 75 SW 7 5273 4770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 74 74 SW 7 4952 4770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 74 74 W 3 4952 4770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 75 75 W 3 5273 4770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 77 77 W 3 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 79 80 SW 5 8163 5741 971 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 82 85 SW 5 9006 8476 3706 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 85 90 SW 5 11550 9313 4543 White 20
11 AM Sun 88 94 S 7 12391 12391 7621 White 24
12 Noon Sun 91 98 S 7 13226 13226 8456 White 28
1 PM Sun 93 101 S 7 13848 13848 9078 White 31
2 PM Sun 95 102 S 8 14056 14056 9286 White 32
3 PM Sun 96 102 S 8 14056 14056 9286 White 32
4 PM Sun 96 100 S 8 13641 13641 8871 White 30
5 PM Sun 95 97 SW 10 13018 13018 8248 White 27
6 PM Sun 93 94 SW 10 12391 12391 7621 White 24
7 PM Sun 91 91 SW 10 11761 9481 4711 White 21
8 PM Sun 88 88 SW 10 9514 8978 4208 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 86 86 SW 10 9174 8644 3874 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 84 84 SW 10 8838 8308 3538 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 83 83 W 14 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 W 14 8501 7650 2880 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 81 81 W 14 8332 6659 1889 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 80 80 W 14 8163 5741 971 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 79 79 W 14 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 78 78 W 14 6757 5262 492 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 77 77 W 8 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 77 77 W 8 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 79 79 W 8 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 81 82 W 8 8501 7650 2880 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 85 87 W 8 9342 8811 4041 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 88 92 W 8 11972 9827 5057 White 22
11 AM Mon 92 98 SW 6 13226 13226 8456 White 28
12 Noon Mon 95 102 SW 6 14056 14056 9286 White 32
1 PM Mon 97 105 SW 6 14670 14670 9900 White 35
2 PM Mon 98 105 SW 6 14670 14670 9900 White 35
3 PM Mon 99 105 SW 6 14670 14670 9900 White 35
4 PM Mon 99 103 SW 6 14263 14263 9493 White 33
5 PM Mon 98 100 SW 9 13641 13641 8871 White 30
6 PM Mon 96 97 SW 9 13018 13018 8248 White 27
7 PM Mon 93 93 SW 9 12181 10284 5514 White 23
8 PM Mon 91 91 SW 9 11761 9481 4711 White 21
9 PM Mon 89 89 SW 9 9917 9146 4376 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 88 88 SW 9 9514 8978 4208 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 87 87 W 15 9342 8811 4041 Blue 17
12 Midnight Tue 86 86 W 15 9174 8644 3874 Blue 16
1 AM Tue 85 85 W 15 9006 8476 3706 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 83 83 W 15 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
3 AM Tue 81 81 W 15 8332 6659 1889 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 80 80 W 15 8163 5741 971 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 79 79 W 8 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 80 80 W 8 8163 5741 971 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 81 81 W 8 8332 6659 1889 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 84 85 W 8 9006 8476 3706 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 88 91 W 8 11761 9481 4711 White 21
10 AM Tue 92 97 W 8 13018 13018 8248 White 27
11 AM Tue 96 102 E 6 14056 14056 9286 White 32
12 Noon Tue 99 107 E 6 15073 15073 10303 White 37
1 PM Tue 101 109 E 6 15476 15476 10706 White 39
2 PM Tue 102 110 E 6 15675 15675 10905 White 40
3 PM Tue 103 109 E 6 15476 15476 10706 White 39
4 PM Tue 103 108 E 6 15274 15274 10504 White 38
5 PM Tue 102 105 SW 12 14670 14670 9900 White 35
6 PM Tue 99 100 SW 12 13641 13641 8871 White 30
7 PM Tue 96 96 SW 12 12809 12809 8039 White 26
8 PM Tue 93 93 SW 12 12181 10284 5514 White 23
9 PM Tue 90 90 SW 12 11550 9313 4543 White 20
10 PM Tue 88 88 SW 12 9514 8978 4208 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 86 86 W 12 9174 8644 3874 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 W 12 9006 8476 3706 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 83 83 W 12 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 82 82 W 12 8501 7650 2880 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 80 80 W 12 8163 5741 971 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 78 78 W 12 6757 5262 492 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 77 77 W 8 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 77 77 W 8 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 79 79 W 8 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 82 83 W 8 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 86 89 W 8 9917 9146 4376 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 91 96 W 8 12809 12809 8039 White 26
11 AM Wed 96 102 S 5 14056 14056 9286 White 32
12 Noon Wed 99 107 S 5 15073 15073 10303 White 37
1 PM Wed 101 109 S 5 15476 15476 10706 White 39
2 PM Wed 103 111 S 5 15875 15875 11105 White 41
3 PM Wed 104 110 S 5 15675 15675 10905 White 40
4 PM Wed 104 109 S 5 15476 15476 10706 White 39
5 PM Wed 103 106 SW 13 14872 14872 10102 White 36
6 PM Wed 100 101 SW 13 13848 13848 9078 White 31
7 PM Wed 96 96 SW 13 12809 12809 8039 White 26
8 PM Wed 92 92 SW 13 11972 9827 5057 White 22
9 PM Wed 89 89 SW 13 9917 9146 4376 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 87 87 SW 13 9342 8811 4041 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 9006 8476 3706 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 W 10 8838 8308 3538 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 82 82 W 10 8501 7650 2880 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 81 81 W 10 8332 6659 1889 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 79 79 W 10 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 77 77 W 10 5756 4939 169 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 76 76 W 9 5515 4770 0 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 76 76 W 9 5515 4770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 78 78 W 9 6757 5262 492 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 82 83 W 9 8670 8140 3370 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 86 89 W 9 9917 9146 4376 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 91 96 W 9 12809 12809 8039 White 26
11 AM Thu 95 101 S 5 13848 13848 9078 White 31
12 Noon Thu 98 106 S 5 14872 14872 10102 White 36
1 PM Thu 100 108 S 5 15274 15274 10504 White 38
2 PM Thu 101 109 S 5 15476 15476 10706 White 39
3 PM Thu 102 108 S 5 15274 15274 10504 White 38
4 PM Thu 102 107 S 5 15073 15073 10303 White 37
5 PM Thu 100 103 W 15 14263 14263 9493 White 33
6 PM Thu 98 99 W 15 13434 13434 8664 White 29
7 PM Thu 95 95 W 15 12600 12600 7830 White 25
8 PM Thu 91 91 W 15 11761 9481 4711 White 21
9 PM Thu 88 88 W 15 9514 8978 4208 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 86 86 W 15 9174 8644 3874 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 84 84 W 13 8838 8308 3538 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 W 13 8501 7650 2880 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 81 81 W 13 8332 6659 1889 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 79 79 W 13 7768 5502 732 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 78 78 W 13 6757 5262 492 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 77 77 W 13 5756 4939 169 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com