Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 43 43 NE 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NE 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NE 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NE 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 E 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 E 8 3140 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 57 E 8 3470 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 58 NE 9 3796 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 58 NE 9 3796 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 57 NE 9 3470 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 NE 7 3140 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 NE 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 NE 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 N 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 N 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 N 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 N 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 NE 5 3796 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 61 NE 5 4760 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 63 NE 5 5370 4770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 62 64 NE 6 5663 4770 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 63 64 NE 6 5663 4770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 63 63 NE 6 5370 4770 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 62 62 NE 6 5076 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 NE 6 4441 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3140 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 N 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 N 7 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 N 9 3470 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 NE 7 5076 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 65 NE 7 5954 5062 292 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 65 67 NE 7 6530 5645 875 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 65 67 NE 7 6530 5645 875 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 66 67 NE 7 6530 5645 875 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 66 66 NE 7 6243 5355 585 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 65 65 E 1 5954 5062 292 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 62 62 E 1 5076 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 E 1 4120 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 E 1 3140 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 E 1 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 E 1 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 N 3 3140 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 61 E 5 4760 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 65 E 5 5954 5062 292 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 63 66 E 5 6243 5355 585 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 64 66 E 5 6243 5355 585 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 65 66 E 5 6243 5355 585 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 65 65 E 5 5954 5062 292 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 64 64 S 5 5663 4770 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 61 61 S 5 4760 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 S 5 3796 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 S 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 S 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 S 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 W 5 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 SW 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 SW 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 SW 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 SW 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 SW 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 SW 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 59 E 3 4120 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 E 3 4760 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 E 3 5370 4770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 62 64 E 3 5663 4770 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 63 64 E 3 5663 4770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 63 63 E 3 5370 4770 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 62 62 S 3 5076 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 59 S 3 4120 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 S 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 S 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 S 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 S 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 NW 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NW 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 NW 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NW 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NW 3 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 N 9 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 58 NE 7 3796 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 NE 7 4760 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 NE 7 5370 4770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 62 64 NE 7 5663 4770 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 62 63 NE 7 5370 4770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 62 62 NE 7 5076 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 NE 6 4760 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 59 NE 6 4120 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 NE 6 3140 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 2874 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com