Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 59 59 SW 13 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 SW 13 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 SW 13 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 SW 8 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 71 SW 8 5291 4837 67 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 73 76 SW 8 7193 5573 803 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 77 82 SW 9 9951 8999 4229 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 80 86 SW 9 10792 10110 5340 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 83 89 SW 9 12175 10743 5973 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 86 92 SW 13 13583 12043 7273 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 86 91 SW 13 13125 11553 6783 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 85 88 SW 13 11681 10531 5761 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 84 85 SW 18 10578 9911 5141 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 82 82 SW 18 9951 8999 4229 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 78 78 SW 18 8492 6432 1662 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 15 5798 5284 514 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 15 5146 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 15 4843 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 14 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 14 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 14 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SW 13 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 13 3298 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 SW 13 3114 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 12 2929 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 W 12 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 W 12 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 SW 8 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 SW 8 5436 4995 225 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 73 76 SW 8 7193 5573 803 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 77 82 SW 8 9951 8999 4229 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 80 86 SW 8 10792 10110 5340 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 83 89 SW 8 12175 10743 5973 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 86 92 SW 14 13583 12043 7273 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 86 91 SW 14 13125 11553 6783 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 85 88 SW 14 11681 10531 5761 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 84 85 W 17 10578 9911 5141 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 82 82 W 17 9951 8999 4229 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 78 78 W 17 8492 6432 1662 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 17 5581 5139 369 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 17 5146 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 67 67 W 17 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 14 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 W 14 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 W 14 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 14 3298 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 14 3114 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 W 14 2929 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 W 12 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 W 12 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 W 12 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 W 12 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 71 W 12 5291 4837 67 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 72 75 W 12 6493 5428 658 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 76 81 SW 14 9751 8399 3629 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 79 85 SW 14 10578 9911 5141 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 82 88 SW 14 11681 10531 5761 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 85 91 SW 14 13125 11553 6783 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 85 90 SW 14 12656 11050 6280 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 84 87 SW 14 11173 10317 5547 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 83 84 W 21 10363 9712 4942 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 81 81 W 21 9751 8399 3629 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 77 77 W 21 7858 5765 995 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 21 5436 4995 225 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 21 5000 4770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 21 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 16 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 16 3298 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 W 16 3298 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 W 16 3114 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 16 2929 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 W 16 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 W 13 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 W 13 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 W 13 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 13 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 W 13 5146 4770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 72 75 W 13 6493 5428 658 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 76 81 W 13 9751 8399 3629 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 79 85 W 13 10578 9911 5141 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 82 88 W 13 11681 10531 5761 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 85 91 W 13 13125 11553 6783 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 85 90 W 13 12656 11050 6280 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 84 87 W 13 11173 10317 5547 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 83 84 W 10 10363 9712 4942 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 9751 8399 3629 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 7858 5765 995 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 5581 5139 369 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 5146 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 10 4843 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 10 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 10 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 10 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 10 3298 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 W 10 3114 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 W 9 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 W 9 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 9 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 W 9 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 72 W 9 5436 4995 225 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 74 77 W 9 7858 5765 995 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 78 83 E 8 10151 9513 4743 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 81 87 E 8 11173 10317 5547 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 84 90 E 8 12656 11050 6280 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 87 93 E 8 14030 12519 7749 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 87 92 E 8 13583 12043 7273 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 86 89 E 8 12175 10743 5973 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 85 86 SW 9 10792 10110 5340 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 9 10151 9513 4743 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 9 9100 7120 2350 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 75 75 SW 9 6493 5428 658 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 71 71 SW 9 5291 4837 67 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 5000 4770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 4843 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 9 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 W 9 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 9 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 W 9 3298 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SW 9 3114 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SW 9 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 SW 9 2795 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 SW 9 4843 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 71 72 SW 9 5436 4995 225 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 74 77 SW 9 7858 5765 995 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 78 83 S 8 10151 9513 4743 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 80 86 S 8 10792 10110 5340 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 83 89 S 8 12175 10743 5973 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 86 92 S 8 13583 12043 7273 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 86 90 S 8 12656 11050 6280 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 85 88 S 8 11681 10531 5761 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 84 85 SW 17 10578 9911 5141 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 17 9951 8999 4229 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 17 8492 6432 1662 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 17 6493 5428 658 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 72 72 SW 17 5436 4995 225 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 17 5146 4770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 69 69 W 12 5000 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 12 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 W 12 3851 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 W 12 3667 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 W 12 3483 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 W 12 3483 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com