Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 16 16 NW 13 8213 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 NW 13 7915 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 16 16 NW 13 8213 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 16 16 NW 13 8213 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 18 18 NW 13 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 22 22 NW 13 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 25 26 NW 13 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 26 28 NW 13 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 27 29 NW 13 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 27 29 NW 20 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 27 28 NW 20 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 27 28 NW 20 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 27 27 NW 13 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 25 25 NW 13 9145 9604 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 23 23 NW 13 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 20 20 N 8 8654 9604 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 19 19 N 8 8556 9604 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 19 19 N 8 8556 9604 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 18 18 NW 7 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 18 18 NW 7 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 17 17 NW 7 8361 9604 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 17 17 NW 6 8361 9604 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 17 17 NW 6 8361 9604 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 18 18 NW 6 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 18 18 N 7 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 17 17 N 7 8361 9604 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 17 17 N 7 8361 9604 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 19 19 W 2 8556 9604 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 23 23 W 2 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 29 30 W 2 9636 9604 0 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 34 35 SW 7 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 37 39 SW 7 11276 10486 882 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 39 41 SW 7 12678 10846 1242 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 40 42 W 9 13319 11171 1567 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 40 41 W 9 12678 10846 1242 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 40 41 W 9 12678 10846 1242 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 39 39 NW 14 11276 10486 882 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 37 37 NW 14 10689 10138 534 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 35 35 NW 14 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 32 32 NW 14 9894 9604 0 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 31 31 NW 14 9758 9604 0 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 30 30 NW 14 9636 9604 0 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 29 29 NW 9 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 28 28 NW 9 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 NW 9 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 26 26 NW 9 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 25 25 NW 9 9145 9604 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 25 25 NW 9 9145 9604 0 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 9046 9604 0 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 22 22 NW 8 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 21 21 NW 8 8752 9604 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 22 22 NW 8 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 26 26 NW 8 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 31 32 NW 8 9894 9604 0 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 36 38 SE 7 10870 10306 702 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 39 42 SE 7 13319 11171 1567 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 40 43 SE 7 13930 11882 2278 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 41 44 SE 7 14515 12551 2947 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 42 44 SE 7 14515 12551 2947 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 43 44 SE 7 14515 12551 2947 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 42 42 S 8 13319 11171 1567 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 39 39 S 8 11276 10486 882 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 35 35 S 8 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 31 31 S 8 9758 9604 0 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 29 29 S 8 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 27 27 S 8 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 26 26 S 5 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 26 26 S 5 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 S 5 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 25 25 S 5 9145 9604 0 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 24 24 S 5 9046 9604 0 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 23 23 S 5 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 22 22 SW 2 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 23 23 SW 2 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 26 26 SW 2 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 29 29 SW 2 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 32 32 SW 2 9894 9604 0 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 35 36 SW 2 10507 10010 406 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 37 38 N 6 10870 10306 702 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 39 41 N 6 12678 10846 1242 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 40 42 N 6 13319 11171 1567 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 40 42 N 6 13319 11171 1567 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 40 41 N 6 12678 10846 1242 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 39 40 N 6 11999 10667 1063 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 38 38 NW 14 10870 10306 702 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 36 36 NW 14 10507 10010 406 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 34 34 NW 14 10152 9745 141 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 32 32 NW 14 9894 9604 0 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 29 29 NW 14 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 28 28 NW 14 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 27 27 NW 13 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 27 27 NW 13 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 NW 13 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 28 28 NW 13 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 26 26 NW 13 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 24 24 NW 13 9046 9604 0 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 22 22 NW 13 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 22 22 NW 13 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 23 23 NW 13 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 24 24 NW 13 9046 9604 0 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 25 25 NW 13 9145 9604 0 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 26 26 NW 13 9243 9604 0 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 27 29 W 9 9537 9604 0 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 28 30 W 9 9636 9604 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 30 32 W 9 9894 9604 0 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 31 33 W 9 10023 9627 23 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 31 33 W 9 10023 9627 23 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 31 32 W 9 9894 9604 0 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 30 30 NW 9 9636 9604 0 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 28 28 NW 9 9439 9604 0 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 27 27 NW 9 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 25 25 NW 9 9145 9604 0 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 22 22 NW 9 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 20 20 NW 9 8654 9604 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 19 19 N 6 8556 9604 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 20 20 N 6 8654 9604 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 N 6 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 22 22 N 6 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 21 21 N 6 8752 9604 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 20 20 N 6 8654 9604 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 18 18 W 8 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 18 18 W 8 8459 9604 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 19 19 W 8 8556 9604 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 21 21 W 8 8752 9604 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 24 24 W 8 9046 9604 0 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 27 27 W 8 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 30 31 W 10 9758 9604 0 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 31 33 W 10 10023 9627 23 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 32 34 W 10 10152 9745 141 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 33 35 W 10 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 34 35 W 10 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 35 35 W 10 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 35 35 W 6 10326 9882 278 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 33 33 W 6 10023 9627 23 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 30 30 W 6 9636 9604 0 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 27 27 W 6 9341 9604 0 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 24 24 W 6 9046 9604 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 23 23 W 6 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 23 23 W 3 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 23 23 W 3 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 W 3 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 23 23 W 3 8948 9604 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 22 22 W 3 8850 9604 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 22 22 W 3 8850 9604 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com