Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 62 62 SW 3 6391 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SW 3 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 68 68 S 5 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 71 73 S 5 9540 9604 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 75 79 S 5 11691 10492 888 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 78 83 S 14 12399 11844 2240 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 81 87 S 14 15204 12519 2915 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 83 90 S 14 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 84 90 S 15 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 85 90 S 15 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 85 88 S 15 15842 12828 3224 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 84 86 S 15 14534 12374 2770 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 82 82 S 15 12229 11665 2061 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 79 79 S 15 11691 10492 888 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 76 76 S 14 10546 9604 0 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 74 74 S 14 9847 9604 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 72 72 S 14 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 70 70 SW 6 8670 9604 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 SW 6 8458 9604 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 67 67 SW 6 8096 9604 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 66 66 SW 6 7985 9604 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 64 64 SW 6 7760 9604 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 63 63 SW 6 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 6391 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 W 5 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 69 69 W 5 8458 9604 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 72 74 W 5 9847 9604 0 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 76 80 W 5 11871 10993 1389 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 79 85 S 10 13344 12200 2596 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 82 89 S 10 16450 14372 4768 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 84 91 S 10 17470 15668 6064 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 85 92 S 10 17620 16271 6667 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 86 92 S 10 17620 16271 6667 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 86 90 S 10 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 85 87 SW 10 15204 12519 2915 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 10 12399 11844 2240 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 10 11871 10993 1389 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 10 11054 9821 217 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 10 10153 9604 0 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 72 72 SW 10 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 71 71 N 5 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 N 5 8458 9604 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 68 68 N 5 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 67 67 N 5 8096 9604 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 NW 6 6391 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 NW 6 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 NW 6 7985 9604 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 70 70 NW 6 8670 9604 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 74 76 NW 6 10546 9604 0 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 77 81 NW 6 12050 11481 1877 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 80 85 SE 7 13344 12200 2596 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 83 90 SE 7 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 85 92 SE 7 17620 16271 6667 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 86 93 SE 7 17770 16920 7316 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 87 92 SE 7 17620 16271 6667 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 87 91 SE 7 17470 15668 6064 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 86 88 S 10 15842 12828 3224 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 84 84 S 10 12543 12022 2418 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 81 81 S 10 12050 11481 1877 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 78 78 S 10 11511 10124 520 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 76 76 S 10 10546 9604 0 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 74 74 S 10 9847 9604 0 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 73 73 SW 9 9540 9604 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 SW 9 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 72 72 SW 9 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 71 71 SW 9 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 68 68 SW 9 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 65 65 SW 9 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 64 64 W 6 7760 9604 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 65 65 W 6 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 68 68 W 6 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 72 72 W 6 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 75 76 W 6 10546 9604 0 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 78 80 W 6 11871 10993 1389 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 80 85 SE 8 13344 12200 2596 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 82 88 SE 8 15842 12828 3224 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 84 91 SE 8 17470 15668 6064 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 85 91 SE 8 17470 15668 6064 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 86 91 SE 8 17470 15668 6064 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 86 90 SE 8 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 85 87 S 13 15204 12519 2915 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 83 83 S 13 12399 11844 2240 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 80 80 S 13 11871 10993 1389 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 77 77 S 13 11054 9821 217 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 74 74 S 13 9847 9604 0 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 72 72 S 13 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 71 71 S 7 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 S 7 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 71 71 S 7 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 69 69 S 7 8458 9604 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 67 67 S 7 8096 9604 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 65 65 S 7 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 64 64 S 3 7760 9604 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 68 68 S 3 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 72 72 S 3 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 75 77 S 3 11054 9821 217 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 77 80 S 3 11871 10993 1389 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 80 84 S 8 12543 12022 2418 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 82 87 S 8 15204 12519 2915 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 84 89 S 8 16450 14372 4768 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 85 90 S 8 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 86 90 S 8 17236 15036 5432 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 86 89 S 8 16450 14372 4768 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 84 85 S 14 13344 12200 2596 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 82 82 S 14 12229 11665 2061 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 79 79 S 14 11691 10492 888 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 14 11054 9821 217 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 74 74 S 14 9847 9604 0 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 72 72 S 14 9230 9604 0 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 71 71 SW 8 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SW 8 8670 9604 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 70 70 SW 8 8670 9604 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 69 69 SW 8 8458 9604 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 8 7985 9604 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 64 64 SW 8 7760 9604 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 7760 9604 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 67 67 W 5 8096 9604 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 71 71 W 5 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 73 75 W 5 10153 9604 0 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 75 78 W 5 11511 10124 520 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 77 81 S 12 12050 11481 1877 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 79 84 S 12 12543 12022 2418 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 82 87 S 12 15204 12519 2915 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 83 88 S 12 15842 12828 3224 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 84 88 S 12 15842 12828 3224 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 83 86 S 12 14534 12374 2770 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 82 83 S 15 12399 11844 2240 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 80 80 S 15 11871 10993 1389 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 77 77 S 15 11054 9821 217 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 74 74 S 15 9847 9604 0 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 71 71 S 15 8918 9604 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 69 69 S 15 8458 9604 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 8 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 68 68 SW 8 8243 9604 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 67 67 SW 8 8096 9604 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 8 7875 9604 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 62 62 SW 8 6391 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com