Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 39 39 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 N 7 6085 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 51 N 7 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 53 57 N 7 9009 9604 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 55 60 N 7 9877 9604 0 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 56 61 N 7 10186 9604 0 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 57 61 N 7 10186 9604 0 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 59 62 N 7 10492 9604 0 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 60 62 N 7 10492 9604 0 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 60 61 N 8 10186 9604 0 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 57 57 N 8 9009 9604 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 8 8628 9604 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 50 50 N 8 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 48 48 N 8 7624 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 8 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 6085 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NW 6 5230 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 6 5230 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 NW 7 8026 9604 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 53 55 NW 7 8748 9604 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 57 61 N 8 10186 9604 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 60 65 N 8 11396 10460 856 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 62 67 N 8 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 63 68 N 7 12280 11355 1751 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 64 67 N 7 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 64 66 N 7 11693 10760 1156 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 63 64 N 3 11097 10156 552 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 9877 9604 0 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 9009 9604 0 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 8507 9604 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 3 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 49 49 W 5 8026 9604 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 5 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 5 6085 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 5 5230 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 W 5 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 5 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 5230 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NW 5 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 NW 5 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 55 57 NW 5 9009 9604 0 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 59 63 E 3 10796 9849 245 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 61 66 E 3 11693 10760 1156 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 62 67 E 3 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 63 67 E 3 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 65 68 E 3 12280 11355 1751 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 66 68 E 3 12280 11355 1751 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 66 67 SE 5 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 63 63 SE 5 10796 9849 245 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 59 59 SE 5 9565 9604 0 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 55 55 SE 5 8748 9604 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 52 52 SE 5 8387 9604 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 50 50 SE 5 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 49 49 W 3 8026 9604 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 3 7624 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 W 3 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 6085 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 5230 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 W 3 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 5 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 4885 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 NW 5 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 NW 5 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 54 55 NW 5 8748 9604 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 58 61 NW 5 10186 9604 0 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 62 66 SE 5 11693 10760 1156 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 64 69 SE 5 12571 11650 2046 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 66 71 SE 5 13369 12232 2628 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 67 72 SE 5 14405 12520 2916 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 68 72 SE 5 14405 12520 2916 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 69 71 SE 5 13369 12232 2628 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 68 69 SE 6 12571 11650 2046 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 65 65 SE 6 11396 10460 856 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 61 61 SE 6 10186 9604 0 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 57 57 SE 6 9009 9604 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 54 54 SE 6 8628 9604 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 53 53 SE 6 8507 9604 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 5 8387 9604 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 5 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 8026 9604 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 7624 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 6879 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NW 5 7624 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NW 5 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 8507 9604 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 57 58 NW 5 9288 9604 0 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 61 63 NW 5 10796 9849 245 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 64 67 S 3 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 66 70 S 3 12859 11942 2338 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 68 72 S 3 14405 12520 2916 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 69 73 S 3 15417 12806 3202 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 70 73 S 3 15417 12806 3202 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 70 72 S 3 14405 12520 2916 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 69 69 S 6 12571 11650 2046 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 66 66 S 6 11693 10760 1156 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 62 62 S 6 10492 9604 0 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 58 58 S 6 9288 9604 0 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 56 56 S 6 8868 9604 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 55 55 S 6 8748 9604 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 3 8628 9604 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 SW 3 8507 9604 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 3 8507 9604 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 52 52 SW 3 8387 9604 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 51 51 SW 3 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 3 8026 9604 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 8026 9604 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 50 50 NW 6 8146 9604 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 52 52 NW 6 8387 9604 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 54 54 NW 6 8628 9604 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 58 59 NW 6 9565 9604 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 62 64 NW 6 11097 10156 552 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 65 68 NE 3 12280 11355 1751 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 67 71 NE 3 13369 12232 2628 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 68 72 NE 3 14405 12520 2916 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 69 73 NE 3 15417 12806 3202 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 70 73 NE 3 15417 12806 3202 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 71 73 NE 3 15417 12806 3202 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 70 71 S 6 13369 12232 2628 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 67 67 S 6 11988 11059 1455 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 63 63 S 6 10796 9849 245 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 59 59 S 6 9565 9604 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 57 57 S 6 9009 9604 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 56 56 S 6 8868 9604 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 5 8748 9604 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NW 5 8628 9604 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 52 52 NW 5 8387 9604 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 51 51 NW 5 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 51 51 NW 5 8266 9604 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 51 51 NW 5 8266 9604 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com