Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 30 30 SE 7 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 SE 7 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 SE 7 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 40 S 14 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 S 14 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 S 14 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 48 S 14 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 47 S 14 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 45 45 S 14 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 41 41 S 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 S 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 S 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 S 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 S 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 SW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 SW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 SW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 SW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 SW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 SW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 W 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 W 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 W 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 W 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 W 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 W 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 45 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 46 47 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 SE 5 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 SE 5 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 SE 12 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 46 SE 12 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 SE 12 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 SE 12 7486 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 49 SE 12 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 48 SE 12 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 46 SE 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 SE 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 SE 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 SE 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 SE 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 SE 9 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SE 8 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 N 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 44 N 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 N 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 N 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 N 6 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 42 42 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 40 40 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 35 35 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 N 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 N 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 N 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 NW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 NW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 NW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 NW 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 47 N 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 49 N 3 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 49 N 3 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 50 N 3 7486 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 N 3 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 SE 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 SE 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 SE 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 SE 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 SE 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 SE 3 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 S 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 N 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 N 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 N 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 N 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 N 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 SE 2 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 49 SE 2 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 50 SE 2 7486 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 51 SE 2 7863 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 51 SE 2 7863 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 50 SE 2 7486 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 SE 5 7104 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 SE 5 6988 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com