Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 12 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 12 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 12 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 7164 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 55 NW 8 8066 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 NW 8 8951 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 59 NW 8 9241 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 60 W 8 9530 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 59 W 8 9241 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 8951 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 57 SE 5 8658 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 SE 5 7768 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 SE 5 7164 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 5 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 S 1 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 S 1 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 S 1 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 S 2 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 S 2 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 S 2 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 7467 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 E 6 8951 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 61 E 6 9818 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 64 E 6 10680 9793 189 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 64 65 E 6 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 64 65 E 6 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 63 63 E 6 10391 9604 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 61 61 E 3 9818 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 3 9241 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 E 3 8363 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 E 3 7467 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 E 3 7164 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 E 3 6859 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 2 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 N 2 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 2 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 2 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 N 2 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 N 2 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 N 3 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 3 8066 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 E 3 9241 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 64 E 3 10680 9793 189 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 64 66 E 3 11623 10360 756 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 65 67 E 3 12114 10647 1043 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 65 66 E 3 11623 10360 756 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 64 64 E 3 10680 9793 189 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 62 62 SE 2 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 SE 2 9530 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 SE 2 8658 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 SE 2 7768 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 SE 2 7164 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 SE 2 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 N 2 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 N 2 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 N 2 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 N 2 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 N 2 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 2 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 N 2 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 N 2 6859 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 7467 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 N 2 8363 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 NE 2 8951 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 NE 2 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 65 NE 2 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 64 65 NE 2 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 64 65 NE 2 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 62 62 NE 2 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 60 S 2 9530 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 S 2 8951 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 S 2 8363 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 S 2 7768 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 S 2 6859 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 S 2 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 S 3 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 S 3 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 S 3 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 S 3 6859 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 3 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 S 3 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NW 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 NW 6 7467 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 8066 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 E 5 9241 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 62 E 5 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 65 E 5 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 65 66 E 5 11623 10360 756 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 64 65 E 5 11118 10076 472 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 63 63 E 5 10391 9604 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 60 60 S 5 9530 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 S 5 8951 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 S 5 8363 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 S 5 7768 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 S 5 6859 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 S 5 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SE 5 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 SE 5 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SE 5 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 SE 5 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 S 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 S 6 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 6 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 7467 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 S 9 8658 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 60 S 9 9530 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 63 S 9 10391 9604 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 63 64 S 9 10680 9793 189 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 63 64 S 9 10680 9793 189 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 61 61 S 9 9818 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 59 S 7 9241 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 S 7 8658 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 S 7 8066 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 S 7 7467 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 S 7 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 S 7 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 SE 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SE 6 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SE 6 6242 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 SE 6 6552 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SE 6 5930 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 SE 6 5886 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com