Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 60 60 N 6 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 6 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 N 6 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 N 6 12991 11234 1630 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 76 80 N 6 15203 13973 4369 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 80 85 E 2 16673 15835 6231 White 16
12 Noon Sat 82 89 E 2 17515 17132 7528 White 20
1 PM Sat 84 91 E 2 17930 17423 7819 White 22
2 PM Sat 85 92 S 6 18138 17569 7965 White 23
3 PM Sat 86 92 S 6 18138 17569 7965 White 23
4 PM Sat 86 90 S 6 17722 17278 7674 White 21
5 PM Sat 85 87 SW 7 17095 16545 6941 White 18
6 PM Sat 82 83 SW 7 16250 15106 5502 White 14
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 7 14828 13584 3980 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 7 13666 12483 2879 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 7 12588 10525 921 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 11320 9604 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 69 69 NW 5 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NW 5 7747 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 NW 5 5769 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 NW 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 W 3 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 W 3 13267 11872 2268 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 78 82 W 3 15939 14734 5130 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 82 87 SE 8 17095 16545 6941 White 18
12 Noon Sun 85 91 SE 8 17930 17423 7819 White 22
1 PM Sun 86 92 SE 8 18138 17569 7965 White 23
2 PM Sun 87 93 S 13 18350 17689 8085 White 24
3 PM Sun 88 93 S 13 18350 17689 8085 White 24
4 PM Sun 88 91 S 13 17930 17423 7819 White 22
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 12 17515 17132 7528 White 20
6 PM Sun 85 85 SW 12 16673 15835 6231 White 16
7 PM Sun 82 82 SW 12 15939 14734 5130 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 12 14446 13189 3585 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 13267 11872 2268 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 73 73 SW 12 12588 10525 921 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 3 11320 9604 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 W 3 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 W 3 7747 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 W 3 5769 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 W 3 11320 9604 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 76 78 W 3 14446 13189 3585 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 81 85 W 3 16673 15835 6231 White 16
11 AM Mon 85 90 S 13 17722 17278 7674 White 21
12 Noon Mon 87 93 S 13 18350 17689 8085 White 24
1 PM Mon 89 96 S 13 18984 18984 9380 White 27
2 PM Mon 90 96 S 13 18984 18984 9380 White 27
3 PM Mon 91 96 S 13 18984 18984 9380 White 27
4 PM Mon 91 95 S 13 18773 18087 8483 White 26
5 PM Mon 90 92 S 15 18138 17569 7965 White 23
6 PM Mon 86 86 S 15 16885 16192 6588 White 17
7 PM Mon 82 82 S 15 15939 14734 5130 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 15 14059 12948 3344 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 74 74 S 15 12991 11234 1630 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 72 72 S 15 11968 9997 393 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 70 70 W 5 10602 9604 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 5 9166 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 5 7747 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 W 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 W 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 W 2 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 W 2 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 W 2 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 W 2 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 W 2 12991 11234 1630 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 76 80 W 2 15203 13973 4369 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 80 85 S 9 16673 15835 6231 White 16
12 Noon Tue 83 89 S 9 17515 17132 7528 White 20
1 PM Tue 84 91 S 9 17930 17423 7819 White 22
2 PM Tue 85 91 S 9 17930 17423 7819 White 22
3 PM Tue 85 90 S 9 17722 17278 7674 White 21
4 PM Tue 84 88 S 9 17305 16893 7289 White 19
5 PM Tue 82 84 S 12 16461 15473 5869 White 15
6 PM Tue 79 79 S 12 14828 13584 3980 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 77 77 S 12 14059 12948 3344 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 74 74 S 12 12991 11234 1630 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 72 72 S 12 11968 9997 393 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 70 70 S 12 10602 9604 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 69 69 SW 5 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SW 5 9166 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 SW 5 7747 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 SW 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 SW 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 SW 5 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 SW 2 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 SW 2 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 SW 2 9166 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 SW 2 13267 11872 2268 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 77 80 SW 2 15203 13973 4369 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 81 86 SE 7 16885 16192 6588 White 17
12 Noon Wed 83 89 SE 7 17515 17132 7528 White 20
1 PM Wed 85 91 SE 7 17930 17423 7819 White 22
2 PM Wed 86 92 SE 7 18138 17569 7965 White 23
3 PM Wed 86 91 SE 7 17930 17423 7819 White 22
4 PM Wed 85 88 SE 7 17305 16893 7289 White 19
5 PM Wed 84 86 S 9 16885 16192 6588 White 17
6 PM Wed 81 81 S 9 15573 14356 4752 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 78 78 S 9 14446 13189 3585 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 74 74 S 9 12991 11234 1630 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 72 72 S 9 11968 9997 393 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 71 71 S 9 11320 9604 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 7 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 7 9166 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 7 7747 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 W 3 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 W 3 9166 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 W 3 13267 11872 2268 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 77 80 W 3 15203 13973 4369 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 81 86 S 6 16885 16192 6588 White 17
12 Noon Thu 83 89 S 6 17515 17132 7528 White 20
1 PM Thu 83 90 S 6 17722 17278 7674 White 21
2 PM Thu 84 90 S 6 17722 17278 7674 White 21
3 PM Thu 85 90 S 6 17722 17278 7674 White 21
4 PM Thu 85 89 S 6 17515 17132 7528 White 20
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 7 16885 16192 6588 White 17
6 PM Thu 81 81 SW 7 15573 14356 4752 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 77 77 SW 7 14059 12948 3344 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 7 12991 11234 1630 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 71 71 SW 7 11320 9604 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 70 70 SW 7 10602 9604 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 7 10046 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 W 7 9166 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 5769 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 W 7 5092 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 7 5092 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com