Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 28 28 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 40 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 47 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 54 N 8 9025 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 60 N 8 12639 11125 1521 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 58 62 N 8 14121 12005 2401 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 60 64 NE 10 14985 13576 3972 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 60 63 NE 10 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 59 60 NE 10 12639 11125 1521 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 10725 9604 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 52 52 NE 9 8001 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 NW 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 NW 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 NW 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 NW 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 NW 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 NW 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 50 NW 6 7213 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 57 NE 8 11185 9604 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 57 61 NE 8 13675 11570 1966 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 59 63 NE 8 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 60 63 NE 8 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 60 62 NE 8 14121 12005 2401 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 59 60 NE 8 12639 11125 1521 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 56 56 NE 8 10725 9604 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 7610 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 NE 8 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NE 8 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 NE 8 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 NE 8 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 41 NW 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 50 NW 6 7213 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 57 N 9 11185 9604 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 58 62 N 9 14121 12005 2401 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 60 64 N 9 14985 13576 3972 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 60 63 N 9 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 61 63 N 9 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 60 61 N 9 13675 11570 1966 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 58 58 NE 7 11635 10118 514 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 10226 9604 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 7 7610 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 NE 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NE 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NE 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 N 7 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 53 N 7 8387 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 59 NE 5 12076 10671 1067 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 58 62 NE 5 14121 12005 2401 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 59 63 NE 5 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 59 63 NE 5 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 60 62 NE 5 14121 12005 2401 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 60 61 NE 5 13675 11570 1966 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 59 59 NE 9 12076 10671 1067 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 56 56 NE 9 10725 9604 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 51 51 NE 9 7610 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 NE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NE 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 N 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 55 N 6 10226 9604 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 57 60 E 6 12639 11125 1521 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 60 64 E 6 14985 13576 3972 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 61 65 E 6 15404 14019 4415 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 61 65 E 6 15404 14019 4415 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 61 63 E 6 14558 12410 2806 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 60 61 E 6 13675 11570 1966 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 58 58 E 9 11635 10118 514 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 55 55 E 9 10226 9604 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 51 51 E 9 7610 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 E 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 E 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 S 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 NW 5 7213 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 SE 5 9025 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 57 SE 5 11185 9604 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 57 59 SE 5 12076 10671 1067 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 59 61 SE 5 13675 11570 1966 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 59 60 SE 5 12639 11125 1521 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 58 59 SE 5 12076 10671 1067 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 57 57 SE 9 11185 9604 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 54 54 SE 9 9025 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 SE 9 7610 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 SE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 SE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 SE 9 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 SW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 SW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SW 5 6499 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com