Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 56 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 59 61 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 63 66 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 66 70 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 68 73 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 74 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 70 75 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 74 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 70 72 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 69 70 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 68 68 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 65 65 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 52 52 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 56 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 63 67 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 66 72 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 68 75 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 69 76 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 76 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 71 76 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 71 74 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 70 72 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 44 44 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 49 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 53 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 57 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 56 61 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 58 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 59 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 57 58 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 39 39 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 38 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 38 38 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 48 49 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 55 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 54 58 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 61 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 58 63 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 60 65 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 65 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 63 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 61 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 49 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 49 52 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 51 55 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 53 58 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 55 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 59 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 55 57 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 54 54 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 52 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 50 50 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 46 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 44 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 43 43 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 42 42 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 39 39 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 39 39 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 41 41 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 44 44 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 45 46 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 45 47 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 46 49 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 47 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 49 52 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 51 54 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 52 54 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 53 54 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 52 53 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 51 51 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 49 49 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 47 47 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 45 45 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 44 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 41 41 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com