Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 31 31 NW 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 N 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 N 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 N 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 N 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 NW 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 44 NW 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 W 6 7710 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 51 W 6 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 51 W 7 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 51 W 6 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 8352 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 NW 5 6329 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 N 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 N 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 NE 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 NE 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 E 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 N 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 E 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 E 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 E 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 E 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 E 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 E 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SE 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 SE 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 SE 5 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 S 3 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 SW 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 48 SW 6 7037 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 51 SW 6 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 SW 8 8352 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 50 SW 8 8352 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 SW 8 7037 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 SE 6 5578 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 SE 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 SE 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 S 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 S 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 S 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 S 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 S 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 S 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 W 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 W 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 W 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 W 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 W 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 W 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 NW 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NW 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 NW 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 N 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 46 N 7 5578 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 47 N 7 6329 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 47 N 10 6329 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 N 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 N 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 N 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 NW 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 NW 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 NW 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 N 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 N 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 N 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 41 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 44 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 45 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 46 N 10 5578 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 46 47 N 10 6329 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 45 45 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 N 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 N 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 N 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NW 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 NW 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 NW 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 NW 7 5578 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 51 NW 7 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 53 NW 7 9729 9604 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 52 53 S 8 9729 9604 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 52 53 S 8 9729 9604 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 51 S 8 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 NE 6 7710 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 NE 6 6329 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 NE 6 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 E 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 E 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 E 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 NW 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NW 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NW 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 W 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 W 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 W 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 W 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 W 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 W 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 W 8 6329 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 W 8 8969 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 53 W 8 9729 9604 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 53 54 SW 8 9951 9604 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 53 54 SW 8 9951 9604 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 52 52 SW 8 9506 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 50 N 7 8352 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 7037 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 N 7 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NW 9 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 NW 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 NW 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 NW 10 5200 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com