Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 59 59 NW 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NW 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NW 5 7036 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 69 W 6 9607 9604 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 70 73 W 6 12545 10365 761 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 73 78 W 6 15458 13653 4049 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 75 81 SE 12 16890 15314 5710 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 77 84 SE 12 19163 16816 7212 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 78 85 SE 12 20299 17044 7440 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 79 85 SW 14 20299 17044 7440 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 80 85 SW 14 20299 17044 7440 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 79 83 SW 14 17850 16588 6984 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 78 79 W 12 16145 14226 4622 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 76 76 W 12 14358 12434 2830 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 12545 10365 761 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 10444 9604 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 10 9218 9604 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 10 8425 9604 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 7 7036 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 N 5 8824 9604 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 69 72 N 5 11884 9604 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 72 76 N 5 14358 12434 2830 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 74 77 E 9 14917 13056 3452 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 75 79 E 9 16145 14226 4622 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 76 80 E 9 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 76 80 W 12 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 76 79 W 12 16145 14226 4622 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 75 77 W 12 14917 13056 3452 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 73 74 W 14 13175 11095 1491 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 14 9607 9604 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 14 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 62 62 W 14 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 14 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 14 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 N 5 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 68 70 N 5 10444 9604 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 72 75 N 5 13779 11782 2178 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 75 78 SE 8 15458 13653 4049 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 76 80 SE 8 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 76 80 SE 8 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 76 80 SE 8 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 76 79 SE 8 16145 14226 4622 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 76 78 SE 8 15458 13653 4049 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 75 76 NE 8 14358 12434 2830 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 72 72 NE 8 11884 9604 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 69 69 NE 8 9607 9604 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 67 67 NE 8 8824 9604 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 65 65 NE 8 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 64 64 NE 8 7036 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 N 6 8425 9604 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 68 71 N 6 11186 9604 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 71 76 N 6 14358 12434 2830 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 74 79 N 7 16145 14226 4622 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 76 81 N 7 16890 15314 5710 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 79 85 N 7 20299 17044 7440 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 80 85 N 7 20299 17044 7440 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 81 85 N 7 20299 17044 7440 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 81 84 N 7 19163 16816 7212 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 80 82 N 9 17120 15832 6228 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 79 80 N 9 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 77 77 N 9 14917 13056 3452 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 75 75 N 9 13779 11782 2178 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 73 73 N 9 12545 10365 761 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 71 71 N 9 11186 9604 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 69 69 N 6 9607 9604 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 N 6 8824 9604 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 65 65 N 6 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 NW 6 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 NW 6 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 68 70 NW 6 10444 9604 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 72 75 NW 6 13779 11782 2178 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 76 81 NW 6 16890 15314 5710 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 79 86 W 10 21370 17316 7712 White 21
12 Noon Wed 81 90 W 10 22160 21700 12096 White 25
1 PM Wed 83 92 W 10 22555 22555 12951 White 27
2 PM Wed 84 92 W 10 22555 22555 12951 White 27
3 PM Wed 85 92 W 10 22555 22555 12951 White 27
4 PM Wed 86 91 W 10 22358 22358 12754 White 26
5 PM Wed 85 87 W 12 21569 18689 9085 White 22
6 PM Wed 83 84 W 12 19163 16816 7212 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 79 79 W 12 16145 14226 4622 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 12 14358 12434 2830 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 12 13175 11095 1491 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 12 11884 9604 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 10444 9604 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 7 9218 9604 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 W 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NW 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NW 7 7036 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 NW 7 9218 9604 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 70 73 NW 7 12545 10365 761 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 73 78 NW 7 15458 13653 4049 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 76 83 W 13 17850 16588 6984 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 78 86 W 13 21370 17316 7712 White 21
1 PM Thu 80 89 W 13 21964 20828 11224 White 24
2 PM Thu 82 90 W 13 22160 21700 12096 White 25
3 PM Thu 83 90 W 13 22160 21700 12096 White 25
4 PM Thu 82 87 W 13 21569 18689 9085 White 22
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 16 17850 16588 6984 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 79 80 W 16 16660 14779 5175 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 16 14358 12434 2830 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 16 12545 10365 761 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 16 10444 9604 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 16 9218 9604 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 66 66 NW 7 8425 9604 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NW 7 8019 9604 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 63 63 NW 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NW 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 NW 7 6873 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com