Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.468227, -118.263270, 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

3 DEC 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NNW 2 3 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 3 4 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 4 4 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 4 4 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 4 6 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 4 6 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 N 4 6 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 WNW 4 8 9252 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 WNW 4 8 10975 9604 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 52 54 WNW 4 8 11436 10025 421 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 53 55 W 4 6 11762 10893 1289 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 53 54 W 4 6 11436 10025 421 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 53 53 W 4 6 11206 9604 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 E 3 5 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 5 6075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 NNE 4 8 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NNE 4 8 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 4 8 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 4 8 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 4 8 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 N 4 8 7279 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NW 5 9 9252 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 NW 5 9 11436 10025 421 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NW 5 9 11762 10893 1289 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 54 56 WNW 5 10 12281 11175 1571 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 54 55 WNW 5 10 11762 10893 1289 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 5 10 11206 9604 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 10 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 N 6 10 8320 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 N 6 10 6075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NNW 6 10 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NNW 6 10 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 NNW 6 10 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 NW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 9 13 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 13 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 13 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 NW 8 12 8320 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 NW 8 12 11436 10025 421 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 54 56 NW 8 12 12281 11175 1571 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 56 57 NW 11 17 12786 11403 1799 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 56 57 NW 11 17 12786 11403 1799 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 56 56 NW 11 17 12281 11175 1571 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 9 13 11436 10025 421 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 9 13 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 9 13 8320 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 NW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 WNW 5 9 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 W 8 12 9252 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 W 8 12 11206 9604 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 55 56 W 8 12 12281 11175 1571 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 56 56 WNW 11 18 12281 11175 1571 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 11 18 11762 10893 1289 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 11 18 11206 9604 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 10 16 10103 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 WNW 10 16 7279 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 10 16 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NW 11 18 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NW 11 18 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 11 18 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NNW 11 18 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 NNW 11 18 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 11 18 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 NW 12 20 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 NW 12 20 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NW 12 20 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 NW 12 20 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 NW 12 20 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 NW 12 20 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 42 NW 9 14 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 45 NW 9 14 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 46 NW 9 14 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 46 WNW 9 14 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 46 WNW 9 14 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 WNW 9 14 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 NNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 NNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 NNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 W 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 W 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 WNW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 W 6 11 6075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 50 W 6 11 9252 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 W 6 11 10975 9604 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 51 52 WSW 6 11 10975 9604 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 51 52 WSW 6 11 10975 9604 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 6 11 9252 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 6 11 8320 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 6 11 6075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 W 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 W 6 11 5000 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 WNW 8 12 5000 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com