Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 8 6795 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 8 6795 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 8 7036 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 59 NW 6 7597 9604 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 62 65 NW 6 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 65 70 NW 6 9045 9604 0 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 68 75 W 6 10874 9604 0 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 71 79 W 6 12397 11342 1738 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 73 81 W 6 12893 12108 2504 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 75 82 W 7 13139 12355 2751 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 77 83 W 7 13384 12602 2998 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 78 82 W 7 13139 12355 2751 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 78 81 NW 8 12893 12108 2504 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 77 78 NW 8 12147 10808 1204 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 76 76 NW 8 11401 9913 309 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 73 73 NE 7 9944 9604 0 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 71 71 NE 7 9241 9604 0 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 69 69 NE 7 8848 9604 0 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 67 67 E 7 8454 9604 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 E 7 8263 9604 0 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 63 63 NW 7 7886 9604 0 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 7 7742 9604 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 7 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 66 66 NW 5 8263 9604 0 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 70 71 NW 5 9241 9604 0 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 74 77 NW 5 11836 10261 657 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 77 82 NW 5 13139 12355 2751 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 79 86 S 10 15473 13336 3732 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 82 91 S 10 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 84 93 S 10 21166 17963 8359 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 85 93 S 14 21166 17963 8359 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 86 93 S 14 21166 17963 8359 Blue 38
4 PM Wed 87 92 S 14 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 86 89 SW 14 17495 15232 5628 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 85 86 SW 14 15473 13336 3732 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 13139 12355 2751 Blue 27
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 14 12397 11342 1738 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 14 11401 9913 309 Blue 21
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 14 9944 9604 0 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 71 71 W 7 9241 9604 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 7 8848 9604 0 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 7 8454 9604 0 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 7886 9604 0 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 62 62 N 13 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 64 64 N 13 7958 9604 0 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 68 68 N 13 8651 9604 0 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 71 72 N 13 9589 9604 0 Blue 17
9 AM Thu 75 78 N 13 12147 10808 1204 Blue 23
10 AM Thu 78 83 N 13 13384 12602 2998 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 80 87 S 9 16221 13578 3974 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 82 90 S 9 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 82 90 S 9 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 83 91 S 9 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 84 91 S 9 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 85 90 S 9 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 85 88 W 13 16874 14282 4678 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 82 83 W 13 13384 12602 2998 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 13 12397 11342 1738 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 13 10874 9604 0 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 13 9241 9604 0 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 8651 9604 0 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 65 65 NW 9 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NW 9 7958 9604 0 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 63 63 NW 9 7886 9604 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 62 62 NW 9 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 60 60 NW 9 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 58 58 NW 9 7526 9604 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 6 7526 9604 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 60 60 NW 6 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 64 64 NW 6 7958 9604 0 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 69 70 NW 6 9045 9604 0 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 73 76 NW 6 11401 9913 309 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 76 81 NW 6 12893 12108 2504 Blue 26
11 AM Fri 79 86 N 5 15473 13336 3732 Blue 31
12 Noon Fri 81 89 N 5 17495 15232 5628 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 82 90 N 5 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 84 92 N 5 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
3 PM Fri 85 91 N 5 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 86 91 N 5 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
5 PM Fri 85 88 NW 6 16874 14282 4678 Blue 33
6 PM Fri 83 84 NW 6 13629 12848 3244 Blue 29
7 PM Fri 79 79 NW 6 12397 11342 1738 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 75 75 NW 6 10874 9604 0 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 72 72 NW 6 9589 9604 0 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 70 70 NW 6 9045 9604 0 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 68 68 NW 7 8651 9604 0 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NW 7 8454 9604 0 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 66 66 NW 7 8263 9604 0 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 65 65 NW 7 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 62 62 NW 7 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 61 61 NW 7 7742 9604 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 65 65 N 5 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 69 70 N 5 9045 9604 0 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 74 77 N 5 11836 10261 657 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 77 82 N 5 13139 12355 2751 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 80 87 SE 5 16221 13578 3974 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 82 90 SE 5 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 83 91 SE 5 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
2 PM Sat 84 92 SE 5 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 85 92 SE 5 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 86 91 SE 5 19241 16673 7069 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 85 88 W 8 16874 14282 4678 Blue 33
6 PM Sat 83 84 W 8 13629 12848 3244 Blue 29
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 12646 11772 2168 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 11401 9913 309 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 9944 9604 0 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 9241 9604 0 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 69 69 N 9 8848 9604 0 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 N 9 8454 9604 0 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 9 8263 9604 0 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 9 7958 9604 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 9 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 59 59 NW 7 7597 9604 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 60 60 NW 7 7669 9604 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 63 63 NW 7 7886 9604 0 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 67 68 NW 7 8651 9604 0 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 71 74 NW 7 10301 9604 0 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 75 80 NW 7 12646 11772 2168 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 78 85 E 3 14520 13092 3488 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 81 89 E 3 17495 15232 5628 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 82 90 E 3 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
2 PM Sun 84 92 E 3 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 86 92 E 3 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
4 PM Sun 87 92 E 3 20259 17290 7686 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 87 90 SW 6 18321 16025 6421 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 85 86 SW 6 15473 13336 3732 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 6 12893 12108 2504 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 6 11836 10261 657 Blue 22
9 PM Sun 73 73 SW 6 9944 9604 0 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 6 9045 9604 0 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 8651 9604 0 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 6 8454 9604 0 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 8263 9604 0 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 8110 9604 0 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 7814 9604 0 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 6 7669 9604 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com