Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 35 35 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 48 NW 6 6789 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 S 8 7878 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 56 S 8 9561 9604 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 56 59 S 8 10775 9604 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 58 61 S 8 11105 10405 801 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 59 61 S 8 11105 10405 801 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 59 60 S 8 11015 10058 454 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 58 58 S 6 10441 9604 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 55 55 S 6 8994 9604 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 52 52 S 6 7878 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 S 6 6789 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 S 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 S 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 5 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 5 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 5 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 W 5 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 W 7 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 W 7 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 W 7 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 W 7 6514 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 W 7 8140 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 59 W 10 10775 9604 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 59 62 W 10 11195 10736 1132 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 61 64 W 10 11374 11093 1489 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 62 65 W 13 11464 11183 1579 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 62 64 W 13 11374 11093 1489 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 62 63 W 13 11284 11004 1400 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 60 60 NW 18 11015 10058 454 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 57 57 NW 18 10103 9604 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 54 54 NW 18 8407 9604 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 51 51 NW 17 7608 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 17 6789 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NW 17 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 10 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NW 10 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 NW 10 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NW 10 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 10 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 8 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NW 8 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NW 8 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 NW 8 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 50 NW 8 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 55 N 13 8994 9604 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 56 60 N 13 11015 10058 454 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 58 62 N 13 11195 10736 1132 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 59 62 N 13 11195 10736 1132 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 59 61 N 13 11105 10405 801 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 59 60 N 13 11015 10058 454 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 57 57 N 13 10103 9604 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 55 55 N 13 8994 9604 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 51 51 N 13 7608 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 13 7064 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 13 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NW 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 NW 6 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 NW 6 9561 9604 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 59 62 SW 6 11195 10736 1132 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 61 65 SW 6 11464 11183 1579 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 63 67 SW 6 11644 11362 1758 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 64 67 SW 6 11644 11362 1758 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 65 67 SW 6 11644 11362 1758 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 66 67 SW 6 11644 11362 1758 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 65 65 S 6 11464 11183 1579 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 62 62 S 6 11195 10736 1132 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 57 57 S 6 10103 9604 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 53 53 S 6 8140 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 S 6 7608 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 7064 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 3 6789 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 3 6514 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 W 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 W 3 7878 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 W 3 10441 9604 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 61 64 W 3 11374 11093 1489 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 64 68 W 3 11733 11452 1848 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 65 69 W 3 11821 11541 1937 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 66 69 W 3 11821 11541 1937 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 67 69 W 3 11821 11541 1937 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 3 11821 11541 1937 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 67 67 E 6 11644 11362 1758 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 64 64 E 6 11374 11093 1489 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 59 59 E 6 10775 9604 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 55 55 E 6 8994 9604 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 53 53 E 6 8140 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 E 6 7878 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NW 2 7608 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NW 2 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 2 7064 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NW 2 6514 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 NW 2 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NW 2 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NW 3 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 6514 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NW 3 7878 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 NW 3 10441 9604 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 60 63 NW 5 11284 11004 1400 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 62 66 NW 5 11554 11272 1668 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 64 68 NW 5 11733 11452 1848 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 65 68 NW 5 11733 11452 1848 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 66 68 NW 5 11733 11452 1848 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 66 67 NW 5 11644 11362 1758 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 11464 11183 1579 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 5 11195 10736 1132 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 57 57 N 5 10103 9604 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 54 54 N 5 8407 9604 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 51 51 N 5 7608 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 N 5 7337 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 6 7064 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 6 6789 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 6375 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com