Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 21 21 SW 9 7276 9604 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 21 21 SW 9 7276 9604 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 21 21 SW 9 7276 9604 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 22 22 SW 9 7500 9604 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 23 23 SW 9 7724 9604 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 SW 9 8391 9604 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 28 28 W 10 8836 9604 0 White 7
11 AM Sat 29 30 W 10 9280 9604 0 White 9
12 Noon Sat 29 30 W 10 9280 9604 0 White 9
1 PM Sat 29 30 W 10 9280 9604 0 White 9
2 PM Sat 29 29 W 10 9058 9604 0 White 8
3 PM Sat 28 28 W 10 8836 9604 0 White 7
4 PM Sat 27 27 W 14 8613 9604 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 26 26 W 14 8391 9604 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 24 24 W 14 7946 9604 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 23 23 W 12 7724 9604 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 22 22 W 12 7500 9604 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 21 21 W 12 7276 9604 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 20 20 W 8 7096 9604 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 19 19 W 8 7096 9604 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 19 19 W 8 7096 9604 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 18 18 W 8 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 17 17 W 8 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 17 17 W 8 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 17 17 W 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 17 17 W 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 18 18 W 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 19 19 W 7 7096 9604 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 W 7 7096 9604 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 21 21 W 7 7276 9604 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 22 22 NW 8 7500 9604 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 23 23 NW 8 7724 9604 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 23 23 NW 8 7724 9604 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 23 23 NW 8 7724 9604 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 23 23 NW 8 7724 9604 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 22 22 NW 8 7500 9604 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 22 22 N 13 7500 9604 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 21 21 N 13 7276 9604 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 21 21 N 13 7276 9604 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 20 20 N 13 7096 9604 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 20 20 N 13 7096 9604 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 19 19 N 13 7096 9604 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 19 19 NW 12 7096 9604 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 18 18 NW 12 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 18 18 NW 12 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 19 19 NW 12 7096 9604 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 19 19 NW 12 7096 9604 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 18 18 NW 12 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 18 18 NW 10 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 17 17 NW 10 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 16 16 NW 10 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 16 16 NW 10 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 18 18 NW 10 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 20 20 NW 10 7096 9604 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 22 23 NW 12 7724 9604 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 23 24 NW 12 7946 9604 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 23 25 NW 12 8169 9604 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 23 24 NW 12 7946 9604 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 23 24 NW 12 7946 9604 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 24 24 NW 12 7946 9604 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 24 24 NW 14 7946 9604 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 22 22 NW 14 7500 9604 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 20 20 NW 14 7096 9604 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 18 18 NW 14 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 17 17 NW 14 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 16 16 NW 14 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 16 16 NW 9 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 15 15 NW 9 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 15 15 NW 9 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 16 16 NW 9 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 16 16 NW 9 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 16 16 NW 9 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 16 16 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 15 15 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 14 14 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 14 14 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 16 16 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 18 19 NW 7 7096 9604 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 21 23 N 8 7724 9604 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 24 27 N 8 8613 9604 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 26 29 N 8 9058 9604 0 White 8
1 PM Tue 28 31 N 8 9503 9604 0 White 10
2 PM Tue 29 31 N 8 9503 9604 0 White 10
3 PM Tue 29 30 N 8 9280 9604 0 White 9
4 PM Tue 28 28 NW 7 8836 9604 0 White 7
5 PM Tue 26 26 NW 7 8391 9604 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 23 23 NW 7 7724 9604 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 20 20 NW 7 7096 9604 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 18 18 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 17 17 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 17 17 NW 6 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 17 17 NW 6 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 17 17 NW 6 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 18 18 NW 6 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 19 19 NW 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 19 19 NW 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 19 19 N 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 19 19 N 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 18 18 N 6 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 N 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 21 21 N 6 7276 9604 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 24 24 N 6 7946 9604 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 27 28 NW 5 8836 9604 0 White 7
11 AM Wed 29 31 NW 5 9503 9604 0 White 10
12 Noon Wed 31 33 NW 5 9943 9943 339 White 12
1 PM Wed 32 34 NW 5 10158 10158 554 White 13
2 PM Wed 32 33 NW 5 9943 9943 339 White 12
3 PM Wed 31 31 NW 5 9503 9604 0 White 10
4 PM Wed 30 30 W 5 9280 9604 0 White 9
5 PM Wed 28 28 W 5 8836 9604 0 White 7
6 PM Wed 27 27 W 5 8613 9604 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 25 25 W 5 8169 9604 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 23 23 W 5 7724 9604 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 21 21 W 5 7276 9604 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 20 20 SE 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 21 21 SE 5 7276 9604 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 22 22 SE 5 7500 9604 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 23 23 SE 5 7724 9604 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 22 22 SE 5 7500 9604 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 20 20 SE 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 E 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 19 19 E 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 19 19 E 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 20 20 E 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 20 20 E 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 20 20 E 5 7096 9604 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 21 22 W 6 7500 9604 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 22 23 W 6 7724 9604 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 23 24 W 6 7946 9604 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 24 25 W 6 8169 9604 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 24 25 W 6 8169 9604 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 24 24 W 6 7946 9604 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 23 23 W 6 7724 9604 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 22 22 W 6 7500 9604 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 21 21 W 6 7276 9604 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 20 20 W 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 19 19 W 6 7096 9604 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 18 18 W 6 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 18 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 17 17 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 17 17 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 18 18 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 18 18 NW 7 7077 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com