Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 60 60 W 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NW 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 6 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 N 5 7536 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 72 NE 7 11163 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 72 77 E 9 12487 11506 2421 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 76 83 SE 12 15460 14072 4987 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 78 86 SE 14 16022 15352 6267 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 81 90 SE 15 16668 16123 7038 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 82 90 S 16 16668 16123 7038 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 83 90 S 14 16668 16123 7038 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 83 88 W 10 16304 15842 6757 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 82 85 W 7 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 81 82 W 7 15038 13533 4448 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 78 78 NW 8 13076 11685 2600 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 72 72 NW 10 11163 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 69 69 NW 10 8035 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 NW 10 7026 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 6502 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NW 12 5964 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NW 13 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NW 13 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 NW 13 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 13 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 NW 12 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NW 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 N 6 7026 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 71 NE 7 9894 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 70 74 E 9 11529 9794 709 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 74 81 SE 13 14607 12973 3888 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 76 84 SE 16 15740 14507 5422 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 78 86 SE 18 16022 15352 6267 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 80 87 SE 20 16163 15701 6616 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 81 87 SE 17 16163 15701 6616 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 81 85 S 15 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 80 83 S 12 15460 14072 4987 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 77 78 S 10 13076 11685 2600 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 11348 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 8 8035 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 7 7026 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 5964 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 5411 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 7 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 S 7 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 SE 7 6502 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 70 SE 9 8522 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 75 SE 12 11710 11024 1939 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 74 79 SE 15 13643 11864 2779 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 76 83 SE 17 15460 14072 4987 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 78 86 SE 20 16022 15352 6267 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 80 88 SE 21 16304 15842 6757 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 81 88 SE 20 16304 15842 6757 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 81 86 S 17 16022 15352 6267 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 80 83 S 14 15460 14072 4987 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 77 78 S 12 13076 11685 2600 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 9 11348 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 8 8522 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 7026 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 5964 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 5411 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SW 5 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 66 S 3 6502 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 70 S 6 8522 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 74 SE 9 11529 9794 709 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 72 77 SE 13 12487 11506 2421 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 74 80 SE 16 14167 12391 3306 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 77 83 SE 20 15460 14072 4987 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 79 84 SE 21 15740 14507 5422 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 80 85 SE 21 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 80 84 S 18 15740 14507 5422 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 79 81 S 16 14607 12973 3888 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 76 77 S 14 12487 11506 2421 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 72 72 S 10 11163 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 68 68 S 8 7536 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 S 7 5964 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 SW 7 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 12 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 12 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NW 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NW 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 5 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 N 3 6502 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 N 5 8035 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 74 E 7 11529 9794 709 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 72 78 E 9 13076 11685 2600 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 74 81 E 12 14607 12973 3888 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 76 84 E 14 15740 14507 5422 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 78 85 SE 15 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 79 85 SE 16 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 79 84 SE 17 15740 14507 5422 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 77 80 SE 17 14167 12391 3306 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 74 75 SE 16 11710 11024 1939 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 71 71 SE 15 9894 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 68 68 SE 14 7536 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 S 13 6502 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 SW 12 5411 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 9 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 8 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 6 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 S 6 7026 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 72 SE 8 11163 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 71 76 SE 12 11890 11326 2241 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 72 78 SE 15 13076 11685 2600 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 74 82 SE 16 15038 13533 4448 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 76 84 SE 17 15740 14507 5422 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 78 85 SE 18 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 79 85 SE 20 15881 14933 5848 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 79 83 SE 21 15460 14072 4987 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 78 80 SE 21 14167 12391 3306 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 75 76 S 20 11890 11326 2241 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 71 71 S 18 9894 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 68 68 S 16 7536 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 S 15 5964 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 SW 13 5411 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 SW 12 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 10 5007 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 12 5007 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com