Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 DEC 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 30 30 NW 16 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 NW 18 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NW 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 NW 24 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 NW 28 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 N 31 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 N 33 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 42 N 33 7119 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 43 N 32 7474 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 43 N 31 7474 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 43 N 30 7474 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 N 30 6760 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 NW 30 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 33 NW 31 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 NW 31 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 NW 32 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 N 31 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 30 N 30 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 N 30 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 N 32 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 N 36 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 N 38 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 N 39 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 N 39 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 N 38 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 N 35 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 N 30 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 N 26 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 N 26 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 N 28 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 N 29 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 42 N 29 7119 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 43 N 29 7474 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 42 43 N 28 7474 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 43 N 25 7474 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 N 23 6760 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 36 36 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 N 17 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 N 15 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 32 32 N 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 N 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 N 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 N 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 N 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 NW 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 NW 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 NW 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 NW 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 NW 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 NW 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 NW 10 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 NW 10 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 N 8 8172 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 47 N 7 9713 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 NE 7 15207 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 48 49 NE 6 15207 9085 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 49 50 NE 5 15833 9562 477 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 48 48 NE 3 13446 9085 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 41 41 E 3 6760 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 37 NE 5 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 36 N 6 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 NW 7 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 NW 8 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 NW 10 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 NW 10 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 W 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 N 8 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 N 7 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 NE 6 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 E 6 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 E 5 9713 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 49 E 5 15207 9085 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 50 51 SE 3 16068 12987 3902 White 4
1 PM Tue 50 51 SE 3 16068 12987 3902 White 4
2 PM Tue 51 52 SE 3 16275 14827 5742 White 5
3 PM Tue 50 50 S 5 15833 9562 477 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 44 44 S 5 7824 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 40 S 6 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 39 S 6 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 SW 7 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 W 8 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 W 9 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 W 10 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 W 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 W 12 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 W 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 W 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 W 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 W 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 W 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 W 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 W 14 6760 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 W 14 9713 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 49 W 15 15207 9085 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 49 50 W 15 15833 9562 477 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 50 51 W 16 16068 12987 3902 White 4
2 PM Wed 50 51 W 16 16068 12987 3902 White 4
3 PM Wed 49 49 W 17 15207 9085 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 40 40 W 17 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 W 17 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 33 33 NW 16 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 NW 15 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 NW 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 N 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 28 28 N 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 N 13 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 N 14 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 N 15 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 N 15 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 25 N 16 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 N 17 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 N 17 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 N 18 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 N 18 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 28 28 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 35 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 36 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 38 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 38 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 37 38 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 36 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 32 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 N 21 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 N 20 6473 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 N 18 6473 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com