Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 63 63 SW 6 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 64 64 S 5 8797 9085 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 65 65 S 5 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 67 67 SE 5 9324 9085 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 69 70 SE 6 11809 9314 229 White 10
10 AM Sat 72 74 SE 8 12690 12690 3605 White 14
11 AM Sat 74 76 SE 10 13128 13128 4043 White 16
12 Noon Sat 75 78 SE 14 13565 13565 4480 White 18
1 PM Sat 77 80 SE 16 14001 14001 4916 White 20
2 PM Sat 78 81 SE 17 14219 14219 5134 White 21
3 PM Sat 78 80 SE 16 14001 14001 4916 White 20
4 PM Sat 78 80 S 14 14001 14001 4916 White 20
5 PM Sat 78 79 S 10 13783 13783 4698 White 19
6 PM Sat 76 76 S 8 13128 13128 4043 White 16
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 6 12909 12909 3824 White 15
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 3 12470 10363 1278 White 13
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 3 11809 9314 229 White 10
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 9503 9085 0 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 3 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 3 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 3 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 3 8267 9085 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 8267 9085 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 62 62 NW 7 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 8 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 65 65 N 9 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 68 69 NE 9 9917 9139 54 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 71 73 NE 8 12470 10363 1278 White 13
11 AM Sun 74 77 E 7 13347 13347 4262 White 17
12 Noon Sun 76 80 E 8 14001 14001 4916 White 20
1 PM Sun 78 82 E 9 14435 14435 5350 White 22
2 PM Sun 79 83 E 9 14648 14648 5563 White 23
3 PM Sun 79 82 E 8 14435 14435 5350 White 22
4 PM Sun 79 81 E 6 14219 14219 5134 White 21
5 PM Sun 78 79 SE 3 13783 13783 4698 White 19
6 PM Sun 77 77 E 2 13347 13347 4262 White 17
7 PM Sun 76 76 N 2 13128 13128 4043 White 16
8 PM Sun 75 75 N 3 12909 12909 3824 White 15
9 PM Sun 74 74 NW 5 12690 12690 3605 White 14
10 PM Sun 72 72 NW 7 12250 9878 793 White 12
11 PM Sun 70 70 NW 9 11809 9314 229 White 10
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 10 9917 9139 54 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 10 9324 9085 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 65 65 NW 10 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 64 64 NW 10 8797 9085 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 63 63 NW 12 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 63 63 NW 12 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 64 64 NW 10 8797 9085 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 10 9149 9085 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 68 68 N 9 9503 9085 0 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 71 72 NE 9 12250 9878 793 White 12
10 AM Mon 74 76 NE 10 13128 13128 4043 White 16
11 AM Mon 76 79 E 10 13783 13783 4698 White 19
12 Noon Mon 78 82 E 9 14435 14435 5350 White 22
1 PM Mon 80 84 E 8 14860 14860 5775 White 24
2 PM Mon 80 84 E 7 14860 14860 5775 White 24
3 PM Mon 81 84 E 7 14860 14860 5775 White 24
4 PM Mon 81 83 S 8 14648 14648 5563 White 23
5 PM Mon 80 81 S 9 14219 14219 5134 White 21
6 PM Mon 79 79 SE 8 13783 13783 4698 White 19
7 PM Mon 77 77 E 7 13347 13347 4262 White 17
8 PM Mon 74 74 NE 7 12690 12690 3605 White 14
9 PM Mon 71 71 N 8 12030 9491 406 White 11
10 PM Mon 68 68 NW 9 9503 9085 0 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 65 65 NW 10 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NW 10 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 61 61 NW 9 8267 9085 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 60 60 NW 9 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NW 9 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NW 9 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NW 9 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NW 9 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 64 64 N 9 8797 9085 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 68 69 N 10 9917 9139 54 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 71 73 NE 10 12470 10363 1278 White 13
10 AM Tue 75 78 E 10 13565 13565 4480 White 18
11 AM Tue 78 82 E 10 14435 14435 5350 White 22
12 Noon Tue 80 85 E 10 15072 15072 5987 White 25
1 PM Tue 82 87 E 9 15495 15495 6410 White 27
2 PM Tue 83 88 E 9 15704 15704 6619 White 28
3 PM Tue 84 88 E 9 15704 15704 6619 White 28
4 PM Tue 84 87 SE 8 15495 15495 6410 White 27
5 PM Tue 83 85 SE 8 15072 15072 5987 White 25
6 PM Tue 82 82 E 8 14435 14435 5350 White 22
7 PM Tue 80 80 E 8 14001 14001 4916 White 20
8 PM Tue 78 78 NE 8 13565 13565 4480 White 18
9 PM Tue 75 75 N 8 12909 12909 3824 White 15
10 PM Tue 73 73 NW 8 12470 10363 1278 White 13
11 PM Tue 70 70 NW 8 11809 9314 229 White 10
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 NW 8 9324 9085 0 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 65 65 NW 9 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 63 63 NW 9 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 62 62 NW 9 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 62 62 NW 10 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 63 63 NW 10 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 65 65 NW 10 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 68 68 N 10 9503 9085 0 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 72 73 N 10 12470 10363 1278 White 13
9 AM Wed 76 78 NE 9 13565 13565 4480 White 18
10 AM Wed 80 83 NE 9 14648 14648 5563 White 23
11 AM Wed 83 87 E 9 15495 15495 6410 White 27
12 Noon Wed 85 90 E 9 16122 16122 7037 White 30
1 PM Wed 86 91 E 9 16330 16330 7245 White 31
2 PM Wed 86 91 E 8 16330 16330 7245 White 31
3 PM Wed 86 90 E 8 16122 16122 7037 White 30
4 PM Wed 85 88 SE 8 15704 15704 6619 White 28
5 PM Wed 84 86 SE 8 15283 15283 6198 White 26
6 PM Wed 83 84 E 8 14860 14860 5775 White 24
7 PM Wed 81 81 E 8 14219 14219 5134 White 21
8 PM Wed 79 79 NE 8 13783 13783 4698 White 19
9 PM Wed 77 77 N 9 13347 13347 4262 White 17
10 PM Wed 75 75 NW 9 12909 12909 3824 White 15
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 9 12250 9878 793 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 NW 9 9917 9139 54 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 66 66 NW 9 9149 9085 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 63 63 NW 10 8620 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 61 61 NW 10 8267 9085 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 60 60 NW 10 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NW 10 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 65 65 N 10 8973 9085 0 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 69 70 N 10 11809 9314 229 White 10
9 AM Thu 73 75 NE 9 12909 12909 3824 White 15
10 AM Thu 77 80 NE 9 14001 14001 4916 White 20
11 AM Thu 80 84 E 9 14860 14860 5775 White 24
12 Noon Thu 82 87 E 9 15495 15495 6410 White 27
1 PM Thu 83 88 E 9 15704 15704 6619 White 28
2 PM Thu 83 88 E 10 15704 15704 6619 White 28
3 PM Thu 83 87 E 10 15495 15495 6410 White 27
4 PM Thu 82 85 E 10 15072 15072 5987 White 25
5 PM Thu 81 83 E 10 14648 14648 5563 White 23
6 PM Thu 79 80 E 10 14001 14001 4916 White 20
7 PM Thu 78 78 NE 10 13565 13565 4480 White 18
8 PM Thu 76 76 NE 10 13128 13128 4043 White 16
9 PM Thu 74 74 N 9 12690 12690 3605 White 14
10 PM Thu 72 72 NW 9 12250 9878 793 White 12
11 PM Thu 70 70 NW 9 11809 9314 229 White 10
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NW 9 9324 9085 0 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 64 64 NW 9 8797 9085 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 62 62 NW 10 8444 9085 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 60 60 NW 10 8090 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NW 10 7268 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com