Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Altitude (f): 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 46 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 47 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 48 48 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 51 51 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 54 54 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 54 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 40 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 45 45 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 49 50 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 53 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 57 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 58 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 58 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 56 56 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 48 48 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 44 44 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 40 40 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 45 45 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 51 52 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 57 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 59 61 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 62 64 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 62 63 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 61 61 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 59 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 55 55 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 52 52 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 49 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 49 49 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 48 48 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 47 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 46 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 44 44 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 48 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 57 58 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 61 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 64 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 64 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 62 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 59 59 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 54 54 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 48 48 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 45 45 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 39 39 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 42 42 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 46 47 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 49 51 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 52 54 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 54 56 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 54 55 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 53 54 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 38 38 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 37 37 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 36 36 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 35 35 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 36 36 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 41 41 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 47 48 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 51 53 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 55 57 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 60 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 58 59 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 57 58 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 55 55 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 51 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 48 48 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 45 45 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 45 45 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 44 44 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 43 43 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 43 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 40 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com