Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.654428, -118.297628, 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 22 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NNE 0 3 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 NW 1 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 NNE 2 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 E 2 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 E 2 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 1 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 0 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 E 1 2 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 NNE 0 1 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 68 N 2 3 3343 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 78 NW 5 8 8738 5000 0 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 78 84 W 8 11 11269 9901 4901 White 14
12 Noon Mon 83 90 W 10 14 12511 12511 7511 White 19
1 PM Mon 84 92 W 17 19 12923 12923 7923 White 21
2 PM Mon 86 92 W 21 26 12923 12923 7923 White 21
3 PM Mon 86 91 W 26 29 12717 12717 7717 White 20
4 PM Mon 85 88 W 26 29 12098 11874 6874 White 18
5 PM Mon 84 86 W 25 29 11684 10876 5876 White 16
6 PM Mon 81 81 W 21 28 9993 8660 3660 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 76 76 W 18 28 7598 5000 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 18 26 4416 5000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 16 24 3578 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 WSW 13 19 3343 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 12 18 2990 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 WSW 10 13 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 WSW 8 12 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 WSW 8 11 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 WSW 9 11 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 9 10 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 6 10 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 WSW 8 11 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 9 13 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 58 W 10 14 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 63 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 72 W 17 18 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 71 77 WSW 20 24 8305 5000 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 74 81 WSW 20 24 9993 8660 3660 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 76 84 WSW 20 24 11269 9901 4901 White 14
2 PM Tue 77 84 W 27 32 11269 9901 4901 White 14
3 PM Tue 78 84 W 27 32 11269 9901 4901 White 14
4 PM Tue 77 81 W 27 32 9993 8660 3660 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 76 78 W 28 36 8738 5000 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 28 36 4416 5000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 28 36 3460 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 23 34 2990 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 23 34 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 23 34 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 13 21 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 W 13 21 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 W 13 21 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 11 17 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 11 17 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 11 17 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 9 13 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 9 13 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 9 13 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 52 W 8 12 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 59 W 8 12 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 66 W 8 12 3107 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 72 WSW 14 17 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 69 76 WSW 14 17 7598 5000 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 72 80 WSW 14 17 9582 8231 3231 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 73 80 W 29 32 9582 8231 3231 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 73 78 W 29 32 8738 5000 0 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 73 77 W 29 32 8305 5000 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 71 72 W 32 39 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 32 39 3343 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 32 39 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 W 27 36 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 27 36 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 27 36 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 21 34 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 W 21 34 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 21 34 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 18 27 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 W 18 27 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 W 18 27 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 W 14 21 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 W 14 21 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 58 W 14 21 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 64 W 26 27 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 68 W 26 27 3343 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 72 W 26 27 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 67 73 W 19 27 4416 5000 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 67 72 W 19 27 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 19 27 3578 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 66 W 19 31 3107 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 19 31 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 19 31 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 19 31 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 19 31 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 19 31 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 W 13 20 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 13 20 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 13 20 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 W 13 20 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 W 13 20 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 57 W 13 20 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 62 W 19 31 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 65 W 19 31 2990 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 68 W 19 31 3343 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 68 W 19 31 3343 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 67 W 19 31 3225 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 66 W 19 31 3107 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 63 W 21 32 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 21 32 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 21 32 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 21 32 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 21 32 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 21 32 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 14 25 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 14 25 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 14 25 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 14 25 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 14 25 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 14 25 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 59 W 12 18 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 67 W 14 23 3225 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 72 W 14 23 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 68 75 W 14 23 4884 5000 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 69 76 W 14 23 7598 5000 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 69 74 W 14 23 4715 5000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 69 72 W 14 23 4115 5000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 67 69 W 17 26 3460 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 17 26 2990 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 17 26 2907 5000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]