Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Altitude (f): 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SW 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 W 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 60 W 15 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 64 W 22 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 67 W 22 2421 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 68 W 23 2633 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 67 W 24 2421 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 66 W 23 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 63 W 22 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 21 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 23 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 18 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 20 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 17 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 17 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 SW 16 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SW 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 18 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SW 18 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SW 16 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 SW 15 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SW 15 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 SW 17 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 SW 17 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 SW 17 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 SW 17 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 43 SW 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 45 SW 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 47 47 SW 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 49 49 W 13 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 49 W 13 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 49 49 W 13 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 W 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 W 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 S 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 S 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 S 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 NE 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 E 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 E 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 52 E 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 53 S 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 53 S 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 S 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 52 SW 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 SW 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 SW 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 SE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 SE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 SE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 E 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 E 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 E 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 E 6 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 NE 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 E 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 E 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 53 E 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 53 E 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 53 E 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 E 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 E 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 E 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 E 14 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 E 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 E 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 E 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 NE 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 NE 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 49 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 53 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 13 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 59 E 13 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 E 13 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 56 E 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 E 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 E 12 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 N 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 46 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 51 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 55 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 58 N 7 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 61 W 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 61 W 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 59 W 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 10 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 9 2369 5000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com