Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 11 11 SW 36 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 11 11 SW 36 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 11 11 SW 36 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 11 11 SW 36 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 12 12 SW 36 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 12 12 SW 36 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 12 12 SW 32 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 12 12 SW 32 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 12 12 SW 32 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 12 12 SW 32 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 12 12 SW 32 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 11 11 SW 32 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 11 11 W 26 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 10 10 W 26 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 10 10 W 26 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 9 9 SW 25 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 9 9 SW 25 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 9 9 SW 25 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 9 9 SW 18 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 8 8 SW 18 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 7 7 SW 18 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 6 6 SW 17 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 5 5 SW 17 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 5 5 SW 17 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 5 5 SW 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 5 5 SW 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 6 6 SW 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 7 7 SW 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 7 7 SW 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 7 7 SW 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 7 7 W 10 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 8 8 W 10 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 8 8 W 10 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 8 8 W 10 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 8 8 W 10 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 8 8 W 10 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 8 8 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 7 7 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 6 6 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 6 6 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 6 6 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 5 5 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 5 5 N 16 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 5 5 N 16 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 5 5 N 16 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 4 4 N 16 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 4 4 N 16 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 4 4 N 16 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 4 4 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 4 4 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 4 4 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 4 4 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 5 5 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 5 5 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 6 7 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 6 7 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 7 9 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 8 9 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 9 10 N 13 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 9 9 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 8 8 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 7 7 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 6 6 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 4 4 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 4 4 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 3 3 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 3 3 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 3 3 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 4 4 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 4 4 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 3 3 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 2 2 N 14 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 2 2 N 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 3 3 N 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 4 4 N 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 6 6 N 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 8 8 N 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 11 12 N 15 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 13 15 NE 9 11400 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 15 17 NE 9 11941 11115 142 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 18 21 NE 9 12772 12188 1215 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 19 21 NE 9 12772 12188 1215 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 19 21 NE 9 12772 12188 1215 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 18 19 NE 9 12476 11655 682 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 16 16 N 13 11672 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 12 12 N 13 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 8 8 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 5 5 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 5 5 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 7 7 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 8 8 W 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 7 7 W 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 6 6 W 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 5 5 W 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 5 5 W 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 6 6 W 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 7 7 W 9 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 8 8 W 9 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 8 8 W 9 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 8 8 W 9 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 10 10 W 9 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 11 11 W 9 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 13 14 W 8 11127 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 15 16 W 8 11672 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 17 19 W 8 12476 11655 682 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 18 19 W 8 12476 11655 682 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 17 18 W 8 12210 11386 413 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 16 16 W 8 11672 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 15 15 SW 9 11400 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 14 14 SW 9 11127 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 14 14 SW 9 11127 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 13 13 SW 9 10852 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 12 12 SW 9 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 10 10 SW 9 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 10 10 SW 12 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 11 11 SW 12 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 12 12 SW 12 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 12 12 SW 12 10576 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 11 11 SW 12 10297 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 9 9 SW 12 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 8 8 S 8 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 7 7 S 8 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 8 8 S 8 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 9 9 S 8 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 8 8 S 8 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 7 7 S 8 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 7 7 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 7 8 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 8 9 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 9 10 N 13 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 9 10 N 13 10017 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 8 8 N 13 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 7 7 NE 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 7 7 NE 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 6 6 NE 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 6 6 NE 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 5 5 NE 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 5 5 NE 15 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 4 4 NE 21 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 4 4 NE 21 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 5 5 NE 21 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 6 6 NE 21 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 5 5 NE 21 9862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 4 4 NE 21 9862 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com