Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 39 39 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 48 50 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 56 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 52 57 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 53 58 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 53 57 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 54 57 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 54 56 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 53 54 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 51 51 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 48 48 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 46 46 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 44 44 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 43 43 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 42 42 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 40 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 38 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 39 40 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 40 42 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 41 45 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 42 48 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 42 49 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 43 50 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 43 49 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 44 49 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 45 48 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 45 47 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 43 43 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 41 41 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 39 39 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 38 38 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 37 37 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 34 34 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 32 32 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 31 31 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 31 31 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 31 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 31 31 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 34 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 34 36 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 35 39 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 35 40 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 36 41 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 36 42 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 37 42 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 38 42 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 38 41 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 38 39 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 36 36 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 34 34 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 32 32 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 31 31 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 30 30 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 30 30 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 29 29 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 28 28 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 30 30 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 34 34 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 38 40 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 38 41 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 38 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 39 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 40 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 41 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 42 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 41 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 40 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 39 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 37 37 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 32 32 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 31 31 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 32 32 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 32 32 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 28 28 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 33 33 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 36 36 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 36 38 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 36 39 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 36 39 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 38 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 40 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 41 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 41 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 39 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 38 38 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 36 36 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 35 35 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 33 33 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 30 30 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 29 29 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 32 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 28 28 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 29 29 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 32 32 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 35 35 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 35 36 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 33 35 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 33 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 34 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 36 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 38 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 40 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 41 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 40 41 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 33 33 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 32 32 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 32 32 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 32 32 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 32 32 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 29 29 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com