Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 28 28 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 SW 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 SW 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SW 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 33 33 S 39 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 33 34 S 39 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 31 32 S 39 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 30 31 S 39 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 30 30 S 39 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 31 31 S 39 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 31 31 S 40 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 30 30 S 40 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 28 28 S 40 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 26 26 S 36 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 25 25 S 36 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 S 36 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 SW 26 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 SW 21 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 SW 21 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 SW 21 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 SW 21 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 SW 21 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 SW 21 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 SW 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 37 SW 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 36 37 SW 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 36 37 SW 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 36 SW 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 36 SW 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 SW 20 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 34 34 SW 20 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 31 31 SW 20 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 29 SW 20 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 SW 20 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 SW 20 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 S 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 S 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 S 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 S 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 S 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 29 S 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 31 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 32 33 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 31 32 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 31 32 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 31 31 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 31 31 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 31 31 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 30 30 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 28 28 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 S 29 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 25 25 S 24 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 25 25 S 24 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 S 24 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 24 24 S 24 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 S 24 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 26 26 S 24 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 SW 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 SW 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 SW 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 SW 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 SW 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 28 28 SW 25 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 28 28 S 15 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 29 29 S 15 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 31 31 S 15 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 32 32 S 15 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 32 32 S 15 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 31 31 S 15 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 29 29 N 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 26 26 N 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 24 24 N 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 23 23 N 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 23 23 N 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 24 24 N 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 N 12 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 24 24 N 12 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 N 12 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 23 23 N 12 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 N 12 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 26 26 N 12 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 27 W 14 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 W 14 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 W 14 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 W 14 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 W 14 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 W 14 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 42 W 9 11311 10973 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 41 42 W 9 11311 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 40 41 W 9 10407 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 38 39 W 9 8878 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 39 40 W 9 9645 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 41 41 W 9 10407 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 41 41 W 13 10407 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 W 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 32 32 W 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 28 28 W 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 W 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 W 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 SW 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 SW 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 SW 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 SW 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 SW 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 SW 13 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 SW 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 SW 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 SW 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 SW 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 SW 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 SW 9 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 S 8 11641 10973 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 42 43 S 8 11641 10973 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 41 43 S 8 11641 10973 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 40 41 S 8 10407 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 42 S 8 11311 10973 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 43 43 S 8 11641 10973 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 43 43 SW 10 11641 10973 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 39 39 SW 10 8878 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 SW 10 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 30 30 SW 10 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 SW 10 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 SW 10 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 S 17 8862 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com