Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 2 2 N 13 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 2 2 N 13 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 1 1 N 13 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 1 1 N 13 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 2 2 N 13 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 5 5 N 13 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 7 9 N 9 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 9 11 N 9 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 11 13 N 9 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 12 14 N 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 13 15 N 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 14 15 N 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 15 15 NE 22 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 15 15 NE 22 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 14 14 NE 22 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 14 14 N 26 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 14 14 N 26 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 14 14 N 26 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 15 15 NW 22 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 15 15 NW 22 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 15 15 NW 22 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 15 15 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 16 16 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 16 16 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 15 15 W 17 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 15 15 W 17 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 15 15 W 17 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 16 16 W 24 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 W 24 10170 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 21 22 W 24 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 24 25 SW 26 12286 10973 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 25 27 SW 26 13647 11495 522 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 24 26 SW 26 12986 10973 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 24 26 W 25 12986 10973 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 23 24 W 25 11538 10973 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 23 24 W 25 11538 10973 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 22 22 W 23 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 20 20 W 23 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 19 19 W 23 10170 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 17 17 W 23 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 17 17 W 23 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 16 16 W 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 16 16 N 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 16 16 N 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 15 15 N 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 15 15 N 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 16 16 N 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 16 16 N 23 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 16 16 NW 24 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 15 15 NW 24 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 15 15 NW 24 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 15 15 NW 24 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 18 18 NW 24 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 21 22 NW 24 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 25 27 SW 12 13647 11495 522 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 27 30 SW 12 15454 13565 2592 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 29 32 SW 12 16545 14777 3804 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 29 32 SW 12 16545 14777 3804 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 29 31 SW 12 16009 14184 3211 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 28 29 SW 12 14877 12915 1942 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 27 27 W 14 13647 11495 522 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 25 25 W 14 12286 10973 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 22 22 W 14 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 20 20 W 14 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 18 18 W 14 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 17 17 W 14 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 17 17 SW 18 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 17 17 SW 18 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 17 17 SW 18 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 17 17 SW 18 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 16 16 SW 18 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 15 SW 18 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 15 15 SW 29 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 16 16 SW 29 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 17 17 SW 29 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 18 18 SW 29 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 17 17 SW 29 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 17 17 SW 29 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 18 18 SW 16 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 19 20 SW 16 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 21 22 SW 16 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 22 23 SW 16 10949 10973 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 21 21 SW 16 10548 10973 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 18 18 SW 16 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 17 17 N 20 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 17 17 N 20 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 18 18 N 20 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 18 18 N 20 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 16 16 N 20 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 13 13 N 20 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 12 12 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 14 14 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 16 16 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 17 17 N 21 9903 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 15 15 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 12 12 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 10 10 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 10 10 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 12 12 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 14 14 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 14 14 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 14 14 N 21 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 14 16 N 10 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 16 18 N 10 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 18 20 N 10 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 20 22 N 10 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 20 22 N 10 10736 10973 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 18 19 N 10 10170 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 16 16 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 15 15 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 15 15 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 14 14 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 12 12 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 11 11 NW 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 10 10 N 12 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 9 9 N 12 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 10 10 N 12 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 11 11 N 12 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 11 11 N 12 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 11 11 N 12 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 10 10 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 10 10 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 11 11 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 12 12 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 14 14 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 16 16 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 18 19 W 15 10170 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 19 20 W 15 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 19 21 W 15 10548 10973 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 20 21 W 15 10548 10973 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 20 21 W 15 10548 10973 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 20 20 W 15 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 20 20 W 16 10359 10973 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 18 18 W 16 10037 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 16 16 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 14 14 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 14 14 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 14 14 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 14 14 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 13 13 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 12 12 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 12 12 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 12 12 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 13 13 W 16 9843 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com