Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 30 30 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 30 30 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 28 28 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 28 28 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 27 27 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 29 29 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 30 31 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 32 34 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 32 34 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 32 33 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 31 32 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 30 30 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 27 27 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 26 26 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 25 25 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 24 24 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 22 22 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 21 21 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 20 20 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 20 20 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 19 19 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 19 19 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 17 17 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 17 17 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 16 16 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 17 17 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 15 15 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 14 14 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 14 14 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 14 14 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 15 16 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 17 18 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 18 19 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 19 21 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 19 20 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 19 19 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 18 18 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 17 17 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 17 17 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 16 16 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 16 16 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 16 16 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 16 16 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 16 16 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 17 17 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 17 17 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 18 18 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 18 18 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 18 18 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 18 18 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 17 17 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 18 18 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 20 20 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 23 23 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 27 28 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 30 32 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 32 34 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 33 35 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 32 33 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 30 30 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 28 28 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 26 26 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 25 25 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 24 24 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 23 23 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 23 23 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 23 23 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 24 24 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 25 25 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 26 26 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 26 26 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 26 26 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 25 25 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 25 25 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 26 26 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 28 28 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 34 35 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 36 38 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 37 39 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 37 39 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 36 37 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 34 34 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 32 32 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 30 30 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 28 28 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 27 27 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 26 26 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 26 26 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 27 27 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 27 27 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 26 26 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 26 26 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 28 28 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 31 31 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 34 35 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 36 37 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 37 39 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 37 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 36 37 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 32 32 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 30 30 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 28 28 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 27 27 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 27 27 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 27 27 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 28 28 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 29 29 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 30 30 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 32 32 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 33 34 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 34 35 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 35 36 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 35 36 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 34 35 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 33 33 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 31 31 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 30 30 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 29 29 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 28 28 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 27 27 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 26 26 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 26 26 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 26 26 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 27 27 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 27 27 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 26 26 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com