Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 36 36 SW 35 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 SW 35 6362 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 SW 35 6362 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 SW 33 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 SW 33 7002 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 SW 33 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 42 W 28 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 43 W 28 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 43 W 28 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 43 W 26 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 43 43 W 26 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 42 42 W 26 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 41 41 SW 13 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 SW 13 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 SW 13 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 SW 12 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 SW 10 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 SW 10 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 SW 10 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 SW 12 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 SW 12 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 SW 12 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 SW 17 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 17 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SW 17 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 SW 17 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SW 17 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SW 17 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 SW 15 10064 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 SW 15 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 48 SW 15 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 48 SW 15 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 47 SW 15 10064 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 46 46 SW 15 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 SW 18 9468 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 SW 18 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 SW 18 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 SW 18 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 SW 18 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 SW 18 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 SW 14 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 SW 14 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 SW 14 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 SW 14 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 SW 14 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 S 14 11641 10973 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 52 54 S 14 14023 11612 639 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 52 54 S 14 14023 11612 639 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 52 53 S 14 12777 11092 119 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 52 53 S 14 12777 11092 119 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 51 51 S 14 11641 10973 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 50 50 SW 10 11113 10973 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 48 48 SW 10 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 SW 10 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 SW 10 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 SW 10 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 SW 10 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 S 12 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 S 12 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 S 12 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 12 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 S 12 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 S 12 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 SW 15 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 15 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 SW 15 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 15 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 15 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 SW 15 10664 10973 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 51 52 SW 16 12154 10973 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 52 53 SW 16 12777 11092 119 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 52 53 SW 16 12777 11092 119 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 52 53 SW 16 12777 11092 119 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 51 51 SW 16 11641 10973 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 51 51 SW 16 11641 10973 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 50 50 SW 18 11113 10973 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 48 48 SW 18 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 46 SW 18 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 SW 18 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 SW 18 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 SW 18 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 SW 16 7318 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 SW 16 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SW 16 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SW 16 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 SW 16 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 SW 16 7318 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 SW 21 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 SW 21 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SW 21 7318 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 21 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SW 21 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 SW 21 10064 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 SW 20 11641 10973 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 51 52 SW 20 12154 10973 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 51 52 SW 20 12154 10973 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 50 51 SW 20 11641 10973 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 49 50 SW 20 11113 10973 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 49 49 SW 20 10664 10973 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 48 48 SW 17 10363 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 SW 17 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 SW 17 9468 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 SW 17 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 SW 17 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 SW 17 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 S 20 6362 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 S 20 7002 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 S 20 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 20 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 S 20 7632 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 S 20 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 S 25 6039 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 S 25 6039 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 S 25 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 S 25 7318 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 S 25 8252 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 S 25 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 S 31 10064 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 47 S 31 10064 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 46 S 31 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 46 S 31 9767 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 44 S 31 9168 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 S 31 8865 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 S 37 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 S 37 8560 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 S 37 7943 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 S 37 7318 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 S 37 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 S 37 5886 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 36 5886 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 SW 36 6039 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SW 36 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 SW 36 7002 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 SW 36 6683 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 SW 36 5886 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com