Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 23 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 E 23 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 23 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 49 NE 5 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 53 NE 5 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 56 NE 5 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 60 SW 7 10902 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 54 62 SW 7 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 57 65 SW 7 12709 11869 896 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 59 67 SW 8 13221 12431 1458 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 60 66 SW 8 12966 12174 1201 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 62 67 SW 8 13221 12431 1458 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 62 65 W 10 12709 11869 896 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 61 62 W 10 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 10 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 9559 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 9 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 9 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NE 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NE 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NW 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NW 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NW 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SE 6 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 6 9559 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 SE 6 11443 10973 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 62 65 SE 6 12709 11869 896 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 63 68 SE 6 13475 12686 1713 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 63 70 SW 10 14993 13194 2221 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 63 71 SW 10 15912 13446 2473 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 63 72 SW 10 16617 13757 2784 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 64 72 SW 18 16617 13757 2784 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 65 72 SW 18 16617 13757 2784 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 66 71 SW 18 15912 13446 2473 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 67 70 W 21 14993 13194 2221 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 66 67 W 21 13221 12431 1458 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 21 12451 11421 448 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 21 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 21 11443 10973 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 21 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 23 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SW 23 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 23 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SW 23 9559 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 SW 23 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SW 23 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 SW 20 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SW 20 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SW 20 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 SW 20 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 62 65 SW 20 12709 11869 896 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 62 67 SW 20 13221 12431 1458 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 62 69 SW 14 13903 12941 1968 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 62 70 SW 14 14993 13194 2221 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 63 71 SW 14 15912 13446 2473 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 64 72 SW 14 16617 13757 2784 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 65 71 SW 14 15912 13446 2473 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 65 70 SW 14 14993 13194 2221 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 65 68 SW 17 13475 12686 1713 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 63 64 SW 17 12451 11421 448 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 61 61 SW 17 11443 10973 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 59 59 SW 17 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 17 9559 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 17 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 12 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 12 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 12 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 12 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 12 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 12 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 W 7 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 63 W 7 12192 10973 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 62 67 W 7 13221 12431 1458 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 63 70 W 7 14993 13194 2221 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 65 73 W 7 17283 14831 3858 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 66 74 W 7 18032 15774 4801 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 68 76 W 7 20107 17130 6157 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 69 76 W 7 20107 17130 6157 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 70 75 W 7 19042 16471 5498 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 69 72 W 7 16617 13757 2784 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 66 67 W 7 13221 12431 1458 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 7 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 W 7 9559 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 N 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 N 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 W 7 10902 10973 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 62 65 W 7 12709 11869 896 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 63 68 W 7 13475 12686 1713 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 65 72 SW 8 16617 13757 2784 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 66 74 SW 8 18032 15774 4801 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 67 75 SW 8 19042 16471 5498 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 68 76 SW 8 20107 17130 6157 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 70 77 SW 8 21089 17757 6784 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 71 76 SW 8 20107 17130 6157 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 70 73 W 9 17283 14831 3858 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 67 68 W 9 13475 12686 1713 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 9 12192 10973 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 9 10902 10973 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 9 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 9 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 NE 21 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 21 9559 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 21 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NE 21 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 21 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 10 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 NE 10 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 NE 10 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 64 NE 10 12451 11421 448 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 64 69 NE 10 13903 12941 1968 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 66 73 S 6 17283 14831 3858 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 68 76 S 6 20107 17130 6157 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 69 77 S 6 21089 17757 6784 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 70 78 S 6 21961 18762 7789 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 72 79 S 6 22753 19754 8781 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 72 77 S 6 21089 17757 6784 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 72 75 W 8 19042 16471 5498 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 69 70 W 8 14993 13194 2221 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 12709 11869 896 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 11443 10973 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 8 10300 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 8 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NW 7 9929 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NW 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 NW 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 7 9255 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com