Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 53 SE 5 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 57 SE 5 11895 10973 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 55 60 SE 5 13881 11850 877 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 57 62 SW 9 15067 13182 2209 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 58 64 SW 9 16518 14399 3426 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 59 65 SW 9 16757 14973 4000 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 59 65 SW 14 16757 14973 4000 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 59 64 SW 14 16518 14399 3426 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 58 61 SW 14 14486 12533 1560 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 57 58 SW 13 12590 10973 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 55 55 SW 13 10372 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 SW 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 7 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 W 7 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 W 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 N 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 N 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 53 N 6 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 56 N 6 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 54 56 N 7 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 56 58 N 7 12590 10973 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 58 61 N 7 14486 12533 1560 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 58 60 SE 8 13881 11850 877 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 57 59 SE 8 13251 11128 155 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 55 56 SE 8 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 52 S 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 S 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 S 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 S 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 S 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 NE 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NE 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 NE 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NE 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NE 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 51 NE 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 54 NE 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 56 NE 8 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 54 58 NE 8 12590 10973 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 56 61 NE 8 14486 12533 1560 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 57 62 NE 8 15067 13182 2209 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 58 62 NE 8 15067 13182 2209 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 57 61 NE 8 14486 12533 1560 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 56 59 NE 8 13251 11128 155 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 54 55 W 9 10372 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 13 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 NE 12 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NE 12 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 12 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 52 NE 12 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 56 NE 12 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 55 60 NE 12 13881 11850 877 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 56 61 NE 9 14486 12533 1560 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 57 63 NE 9 15628 13803 2830 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 58 64 NE 9 16518 14399 3426 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 60 66 NE 9 16996 15527 4554 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 61 66 NE 9 16996 15527 4554 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 62 65 NE 9 16757 14973 4000 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 62 64 N 10 16518 14399 3426 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 60 61 N 10 14486 12533 1560 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 11895 10973 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 10372 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 10372 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 53 N 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 59 N 8 13251 11128 155 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 59 64 N 8 16518 14399 3426 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 62 69 W 13 19932 16941 5968 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 64 72 W 13 22785 19539 8566 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 65 74 W 13 24305 21590 10617 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 65 73 W 13 23550 20642 9669 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 65 72 W 13 22785 19539 8566 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 65 70 W 13 21014 17177 6204 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 64 66 W 15 16996 15527 4554 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 61 62 W 15 15067 13182 2209 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 15 13251 11128 155 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 15 11895 10973 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 15 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 15 10372 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 W 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 W 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 8 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 W 10 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 57 W 10 11895 10973 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 57 62 W 10 15067 13182 2209 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 59 66 W 18 16996 15527 4554 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 61 69 W 18 19932 16941 5968 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 62 71 W 18 21948 18251 7278 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 62 70 W 18 21014 17177 6204 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 62 69 W 18 19932 16941 5968 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 62 67 W 18 17234 16466 5493 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 61 64 W 20 16518 14399 3426 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 59 60 W 20 13881 11850 877 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 20 11895 10973 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 20 11159 10973 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 20 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 20 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 9780 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com