Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 37 37 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 37 37 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 40 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 42 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 44 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 46 51 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 48 54 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 56 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 51 57 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 56 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 53 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 48 49 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 47 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 45 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 44 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 41 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 38 38 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 37 37 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 36 36 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 35 35 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 35 35 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 36 36 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 39 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 40 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 41 45 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 42 47 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 44 50 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 45 51 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 47 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 47 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 47 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 46 47 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 44 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 43 43 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 41 41 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 40 40 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 38 38 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 37 37 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 34 34 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 34 34 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 36 36 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 38 38 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 44 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 42 46 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 43 49 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 44 51 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 45 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 47 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 47 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 47 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 46 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 44 44 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 42 42 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 40 40 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 38 38 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 37 37 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 35 35 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 33 33 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 31 31 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 32 32 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 34 34 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 38 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 38 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 40 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 41 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 41 46 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 42 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 43 48 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 44 48 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 45 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 44 45 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 42 42 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 39 39 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 37 37 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 36 36 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 36 36 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 36 36 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 33 33 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 32 32 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 32 32 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 33 33 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 34 34 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 35 36 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 36 38 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 37 40 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 37 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 37 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 37 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 37 40 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 37 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 37 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 36 36 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 35 35 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 34 34 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 33 33 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 33 33 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 33 33 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 31 31 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 30 30 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 29 29 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 29 29 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 30 30 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 31 31 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 32 32 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 33 34 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 33 35 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 34 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 34 39 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 35 41 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 35 41 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 35 40 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 35 39 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 35 38 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 34 35 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 33 33 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 31 31 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 30 30 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 29 29 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 30 30 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 30 30 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 27 27 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 26 26 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 25 25 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 25 25 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com