Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 22 22 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 21 21 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 27 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 32 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 34 37 NE 14 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 36 40 NE 14 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 37 41 NE 14 10660 10973 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 40 44 NE 16 12076 10973 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 42 45 NE 16 12706 11123 150 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 45 46 NE 16 13729 11588 615 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 46 46 NE 12 13729 11588 615 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 44 44 NE 12 12076 10973 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 40 40 NE 12 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 NE 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 NE 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 NE 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 32 32 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 31 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 33 35 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 38 N 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 41 N 10 10660 10973 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 38 42 N 10 11142 10973 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 40 43 N 10 11614 10973 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 43 45 N 10 12706 11123 150 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 45 46 N 10 13729 11588 615 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 45 45 NE 9 12706 11123 150 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 43 43 NE 9 11614 10973 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 38 38 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 NE 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 NE 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 NE 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 NE 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 NE 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 NE 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 34 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 37 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 40 N 10 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 43 N 10 11614 10973 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 40 44 N 10 12076 10973 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 42 45 N 10 12706 11123 150 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 44 46 N 10 13729 11588 615 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 46 47 N 10 14194 12043 1070 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 46 46 N 9 13729 11588 615 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 44 44 N 9 12076 10973 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 41 41 N 9 10660 10973 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 38 38 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 N 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 NE 10 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 36 NE 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 40 NE 9 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 43 NE 9 11614 10973 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 43 47 NE 9 14194 12043 1070 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 46 50 NE 9 15530 14130 3157 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 48 51 NE 9 15957 14579 3606 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 49 51 NE 9 15957 14579 3606 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 49 50 NE 9 15530 14130 3157 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 48 48 NE 12 14649 12583 1610 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 44 44 NE 12 12076 10973 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 12 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 NE 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 NE 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 NE 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 NE 15 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 NE 14 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 NE 14 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 14 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 37 NE 14 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 40 NE 14 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 43 E 13 11614 10973 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 43 47 E 13 14194 12043 1070 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 46 50 E 13 15530 14130 3157 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 48 51 E 13 15957 14579 3606 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 49 51 E 13 15957 14579 3606 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 48 49 E 13 15094 13670 2697 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 46 46 E 12 13729 11588 615 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 43 43 E 12 11614 10973 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 39 39 E 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 E 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 E 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 E 12 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 E 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 E 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 E 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 E 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 E 9 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 SE 7 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 SE 7 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 SE 7 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 SE 7 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 SE 7 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 37 SE 7 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 40 SE 7 10011 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 42 SE 7 11142 10973 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 44 47 SE 7 14194 12043 1070 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 46 48 SE 7 14649 12583 1610 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 47 49 SE 7 15094 13670 2697 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 46 47 SE 7 14194 12043 1070 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 8 12076 10973 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 42 42 E 8 11142 10973 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 39 39 E 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 E 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 E 8 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 SE 6 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 SE 6 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SE 6 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 SE 6 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 SE 6 8668 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 8668 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com