Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 27 27 N 8 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 N 8 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 N 8 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 N 9 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 36 N 9 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 41 N 9 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 47 N 9 10482 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 46 50 N 9 11423 10973 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 48 53 N 9 12341 11407 434 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 49 53 N 9 12341 11407 434 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 49 52 N 9 12037 11099 126 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 48 50 N 9 11423 10973 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 46 47 N 12 10482 10973 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 43 43 N 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 N 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 N 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 37 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 42 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 49 NE 10 11112 10973 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 49 54 NE 10 12643 11713 740 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 51 56 NE 10 13746 12318 1345 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 53 57 NE 10 14819 12617 1644 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 53 56 NE 10 13746 12318 1345 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 51 53 NE 10 12341 11407 434 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 49 50 NE 12 11423 10973 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 45 45 NE 12 9841 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 12 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 NE 10 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 NE 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 NE 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 NE 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 NE 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 47 NE 7 10482 10973 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 49 53 NE 6 12341 11407 434 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 52 57 NE 6 14819 12617 1644 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 54 59 NE 6 16230 13609 2636 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 56 60 NE 6 16686 14644 3671 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 56 59 NE 6 16230 13609 2636 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 55 57 NE 6 14819 12617 1644 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 54 55 NE 6 12943 12016 1043 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 11731 10973 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 6 10482 10973 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 44 44 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 E 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 E 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 E 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 E 5 10798 10973 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 51 53 E 5 12341 11407 434 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 54 58 S 3 15764 12913 1940 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 56 61 S 3 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 56 61 S 3 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 57 62 S 3 17569 16135 5162 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 58 62 S 3 17569 16135 5162 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 58 60 S 3 16686 14644 3671 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 56 57 NW 5 14819 12617 1644 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 12037 11099 126 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 10163 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 NW 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 48 E 5 10798 10973 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 52 54 E 5 12643 11713 740 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 55 58 SW 5 15764 12913 1940 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 57 61 SW 5 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 57 61 SW 5 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 58 62 SW 5 17569 16135 5162 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 59 62 SW 5 17569 16135 5162 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 59 61 SW 5 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 15764 12913 1940 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 12643 11713 740 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 6 11112 10973 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 45 45 W 6 9841 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 W 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 NE 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 SW 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 SW 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SW 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SW 6 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 SW 6 11112 10973 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 53 55 SW 6 12943 12016 1043 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 56 59 S 7 16230 13609 2636 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 57 61 S 7 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 56 60 S 7 16686 14644 3671 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 56 60 S 7 16686 14644 3671 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 58 61 S 7 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 59 61 S 7 17132 15674 4701 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 59 60 NW 7 16686 14644 3671 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 55 55 NW 7 12943 12016 1043 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 7 11423 10973 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 46 46 NW 7 10163 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NW 7 9841 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 NW 7 9841 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 7 10163 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 7 9841 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 N 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 9570 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com