Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SE 6 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 6 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 62 S 6 11052 10973 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 62 65 S 6 11891 11033 60 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 63 68 SW 12 12430 11879 906 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 65 71 SW 12 14796 12418 1445 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 66 73 SW 12 16144 13809 2836 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 67 73 SW 15 16144 13809 2836 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 67 72 SW 15 15488 12567 1594 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 66 69 SW 15 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 65 67 W 16 12261 11694 721 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 16 11518 10973 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 16 10520 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 15 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 15 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 15 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 10 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 W 10 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 10 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 W 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 W 7 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 W 7 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 W 7 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 W 7 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 60 W 7 10124 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 64 W 7 11705 10973 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 62 67 W 13 12261 11694 721 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 64 71 W 13 14796 12418 1445 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 66 73 W 13 16144 13809 2836 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 67 74 W 13 16781 14687 3714 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 67 73 W 13 16144 13809 2836 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 66 70 W 13 14062 12248 1275 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 64 66 W 14 12076 11509 536 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 14 11052 10973 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 14 10124 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 14 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 14 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 14 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 10 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 10 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 10 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NW 8 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NW 8 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 NW 8 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NW 8 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 61 NW 8 10520 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 66 NW 8 12076 11509 536 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 64 69 SW 8 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 66 72 SW 8 15488 12567 1594 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 68 75 SW 8 17410 15369 4396 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 69 75 SW 8 17410 15369 4396 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 69 74 SW 8 16781 14687 3714 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 68 72 SW 8 15488 12567 1594 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 12 12261 11694 721 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 12 11518 10973 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 12 10520 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 12 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 12 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 12 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 NE 10 10124 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NE 10 10124 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 NE 10 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NE 10 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NE 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 9 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NE 9 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 NE 9 11052 10973 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 65 67 NE 9 12261 11694 721 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 67 72 SE 9 15488 12567 1594 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 68 74 SE 9 16781 14687 3714 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 68 74 SE 9 16781 14687 3714 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 68 74 SE 9 16781 14687 3714 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 68 73 SE 9 16144 13809 2836 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 68 71 SE 9 14796 12418 1445 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 67 68 SW 12 12430 11879 906 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 12 11705 10973 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 12 10520 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 12 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 SW 12 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SW 12 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 SW 13 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SW 13 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 SW 13 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SW 13 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 SW 13 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 7 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 7 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 SW 7 9806 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 SW 7 11705 10973 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 63 66 SW 7 12076 11509 536 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 65 69 S 7 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 66 71 S 7 14796 12418 1445 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 67 72 S 7 15488 12567 1594 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 67 72 S 7 15488 12567 1594 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 67 71 S 7 14796 12418 1445 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 66 69 S 7 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 65 66 SW 13 12076 11509 536 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 63 63 SW 13 11518 10973 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 60 60 SW 13 10124 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 13 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 13 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 SW 13 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 10 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 10 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 SW 10 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SW 10 8839 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 SW 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 8 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SW 8 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SW 8 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SW 8 9164 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 62 SW 8 11052 10973 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 62 65 SW 8 11891 11033 60 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 63 67 SW 14 12261 11694 721 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 63 68 SW 14 12430 11879 906 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 64 69 SW 14 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 64 69 SW 14 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 65 69 SW 14 12580 12063 1090 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 65 68 SW 14 12430 11879 906 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 64 65 SW 16 11891 11033 60 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 16 10520 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 SW 16 9487 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 SW 16 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 16 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 16 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 13 8763 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com