Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.626383, -119.030933, 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 NNW 8 11 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 NNW 8 11 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NW 6 10 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 NW 6 10 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 NW 6 10 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 SW 6 10 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 6 10 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 SW 6 10 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 48 SW 6 10 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 52 SW 6 10 13652 11289 316 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 52 57 SW 6 10 15419 14239 3266 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 53 59 SW 13 19 16496 14986 4013 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 55 63 SW 13 19 20621 17614 6641 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 56 64 SW 13 19 21288 19155 8182 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 56 63 WSW 13 20 20621 17614 6641 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 56 62 WSW 13 20 19911 16374 5401 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 56 60 WSW 13 20 18238 15353 4380 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 55 57 WSW 14 23 15419 14239 3266 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 54 55 WSW 14 23 14674 13618 2645 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 14 23 13652 11289 316 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 49 49 SW 14 21 11333 10973 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 46 46 SW 14 21 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 SW 14 21 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 SW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 11 18 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 SW 11 18 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 11 18 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 11 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 11 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 11 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 48 WSW 6 10 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 53 WSW 6 10 13927 12189 1216 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 52 57 WSW 6 10 15419 14239 3266 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 55 61 WSW 5 9 19294 15808 4835 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 57 64 WSW 5 9 21288 19155 8182 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 58 65 WSW 5 9 26513 19664 8691 White 17
2 PM Thu 58 64 WSW 11 17 21288 19155 8182 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 58 63 WSW 11 17 20621 17614 6641 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 57 60 WSW 11 17 18238 15353 4380 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 56 58 WSW 13 20 15923 14615 3642 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 13 20 14293 13049 2076 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 13 20 13153 10973 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 13 20 11333 10973 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 47 47 WSW 13 20 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 W 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 48 WSW 10 16 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 53 WSW 10 16 13927 12189 1216 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 52 57 WSW 10 16 15419 14239 3266 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 54 61 WSW 11 17 19294 15808 4835 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 55 63 WSW 11 17 20621 17614 6641 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 56 64 WSW 11 17 21288 19155 8182 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 56 63 WSW 14 21 20621 17614 6641 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 56 61 WSW 14 21 19294 15808 4835 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 55 59 WSW 14 21 16496 14986 4013 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 54 56 WSW 18 27 15049 13891 2918 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 18 27 13652 11289 316 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 18 27 11333 10973 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 18 26 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 WSW 18 26 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 WSW 18 26 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 WSW 19 29 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 WSW 19 29 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 19 29 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 20 31 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 20 31 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 20 31 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 17 26 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 17 26 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 17 26 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 43 WSW 16 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 45 WSW 16 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 46 WSW 16 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 46 W 13 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 47 W 13 19 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 48 W 13 19 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 45 47 W 13 19 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 47 W 13 19 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 45 W 13 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 W 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 W 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 W 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 14 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 W 14 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 W 14 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 WNW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 WNW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 WNW 14 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 WNW 14 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 14 23 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 40 NNW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 43 NNW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 45 NNW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 47 NNE 12 18 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 48 NNE 12 18 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 48 NNE 12 18 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 48 N 11 17 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 47 N 11 17 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 46 N 11 17 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 46 W 12 18 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 18 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 12 18 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 W 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 WNW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 WNW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 WNW 12 19 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 44 W 10 16 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 47 W 10 16 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 51 W 10 16 13153 10973 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 49 54 W 10 16 14293 13049 2076 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 50 56 W 10 16 15049 13891 2918 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 51 57 W 10 16 15419 14239 3266 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 51 55 W 11 17 14674 13618 2645 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 51 55 W 11 17 14674 13618 2645 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 50 52 W 11 17 13652 11289 316 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 49 50 WSW 13 20 12254 10973 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 13 20 10303 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 13 20 9595 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 WSW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 13 20 9455 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com