Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 29 29 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 38 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 40 SW 13 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 40 42 SW 13 10010 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 44 SW 13 10742 10973 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 42 44 W 14 10742 10973 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 42 44 W 14 10742 10973 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 41 42 W 14 10010 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 SW 10 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 SW 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 SW 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 SW 17 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 SW 17 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 SW 17 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 SW 17 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 SW 17 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 SW 17 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 W 30 10394 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 43 46 W 30 11102 10973 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 44 47 W 30 11195 10973 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 44 47 W 29 11195 10973 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 43 45 W 29 11010 10973 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 41 42 W 29 10010 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 W 30 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 W 30 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 W 30 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 SW 30 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 SW 30 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 SW 30 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 16 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 W 16 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 W 16 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 16 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 W 16 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 W 16 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 NW 14 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NW 14 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 NW 14 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 NW 14 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 NW 14 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 38 NW 14 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 41 NW 14 9431 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 44 NW 14 10742 10973 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 42 46 NW 14 11102 10973 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 43 46 NW 14 11102 10973 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 43 45 NW 14 11010 10973 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 43 44 NW 14 10742 10973 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 41 41 N 10 9431 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 N 10 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 N 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 N 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 N 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 NE 12 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 46 NE 12 11102 10973 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 48 51 N 12 11567 11284 311 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 50 54 N 12 11842 11562 589 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 50 54 N 12 11842 11562 589 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 50 53 N 12 11751 11469 496 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 51 53 N 12 11751 11469 496 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 52 53 N 12 11751 11469 496 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 52 52 N 9 11660 11376 403 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 48 48 N 9 11288 11006 33 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 43 43 N 9 10394 10973 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 39 39 N 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 N 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 N 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 SE 8 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 SE 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 SE 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 SE 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 SE 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SE 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 10 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 SW 10 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 SW 10 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 48 SW 10 11288 11006 33 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 52 55 W 10 11933 11654 681 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 54 58 W 10 13752 11927 954 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 54 58 W 10 13752 11927 954 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 54 57 W 10 13047 11836 863 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 54 56 W 10 12335 11745 772 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 55 56 W 10 12335 11745 772 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 54 54 SW 9 11842 11562 589 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 50 50 SW 9 11474 11191 218 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 45 45 SW 9 11010 10973 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 41 41 SW 9 9431 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 SW 9 9431 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 SW 9 9431 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 SW 9 10010 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SW 9 10010 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 SW 9 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 SW 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 SW 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 SW 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 W 9 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 W 9 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 46 W 9 11102 10973 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 48 51 N 7 11567 11284 311 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 50 54 N 7 11842 11562 589 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 51 55 N 7 11933 11654 681 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 52 55 N 7 11933 11654 681 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 52 54 N 7 11842 11562 589 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 52 53 N 7 11751 11469 496 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 51 51 N 7 11567 11284 311 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 47 47 N 7 11195 10973 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 7 10394 10973 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 40 40 N 7 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 N 7 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 N 7 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 N 8 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 N 8 8830 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 N 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 N 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 8 8366 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com