Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 40 40 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 46 47 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 56 60 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 65 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 63 69 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 64 71 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 65 71 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 65 70 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 64 67 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 62 63 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 44 44 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 52 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 58 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 68 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 67 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 65 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 60 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 51 51 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 41 41 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 37 37 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 37 37 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 47 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 50 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 57 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 56 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 65 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 61 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 60 63 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 59 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 55 55 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 48 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 41 41 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 38 38 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 36 36 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 38 38 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 46 47 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 49 51 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 55 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 54 58 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 55 59 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 56 61 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 60 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 57 60 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 57 59 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 57 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 48 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 45 45 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 41 41 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 38 38 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 43 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 45 46 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 47 49 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 48 51 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 53 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 49 53 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 49 52 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 51 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 49 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 39 39 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 37 37 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 37 37 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 35 35 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 35 35 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 38 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 41 42 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 43 45 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 45 49 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 46 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 48 54 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 50 56 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 50 55 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 49 53 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 48 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 46 47 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 44 44 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 43 43 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 41 41 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 39 39 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 38 38 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 36 36 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 35 35 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 34 34 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 32 32 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 31 31 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com