Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 25 25 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 25 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 34 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 39 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 45 NE 8 10729 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 45 49 NE 8 12831 11173 2091 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 46 50 NE 8 13765 11632 2550 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 48 52 NE 10 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 50 53 NE 10 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 51 52 NE 10 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 13765 11632 2550 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 47 47 NE 9 11669 10157 1075 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 43 43 NE 9 8916 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 NE 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 NE 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 NE 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 36 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 42 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 47 NE 7 11669 10157 1075 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 46 50 NE 7 13765 11632 2550 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 48 52 NE 7 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 50 53 NE 7 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 51 53 NE 7 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 53 54 NE 7 15543 14148 5066 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 47 47 NE 7 11669 10157 1075 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 41 41 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 34 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 N 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 N 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 N 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 N 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 37 N 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 43 N 5 8916 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 48 N 8 12124 10704 1622 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 47 51 N 8 14224 12081 2999 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 48 52 N 8 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 49 52 N 8 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 51 53 N 8 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 52 53 N 8 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 49 49 NE 7 12831 11173 2091 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 45 45 NE 7 10729 9082 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 41 41 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 NE 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 38 NE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 43 NE 5 8916 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 48 NE 5 12124 10704 1622 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 49 53 NE 5 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 52 56 NE 5 16379 15027 5945 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 54 57 NE 5 16786 15453 6371 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 55 57 NE 5 16786 15453 6371 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 54 55 NE 5 15965 14592 5510 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 52 52 NE 9 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 48 48 NE 9 12124 10704 1622 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 44 44 NE 9 10196 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 NE 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 NE 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 E 7 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 40 NE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 45 NE 6 10729 9082 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 47 50 E 8 13765 11632 2550 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 51 55 E 8 15965 14592 5510 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 54 58 E 8 17185 15870 6788 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 56 60 E 8 18426 16683 7601 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 56 59 E 8 17579 16280 7198 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 54 55 E 8 15965 14592 5510 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 9 14673 12677 3595 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 48 48 E 9 12124 10704 1622 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 44 44 E 9 10196 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 E 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 E 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 E 9 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 SE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 SE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 SE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 SE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 SE 6 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 SE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 SE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 SE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 42 SE 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 46 SE 6 11204 9082 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 48 50 SE 6 13765 11632 2550 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 52 54 SE 6 15543 14148 5066 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 54 56 SE 6 16379 15027 5945 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 54 55 SE 6 15965 14592 5510 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 52 53 SE 6 15112 13695 4613 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 50 50 E 8 13765 11632 2550 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 47 47 E 8 11669 10157 1075 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 44 44 E 8 10196 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 E 8 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 E 8 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 E 8 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 S 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 S 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 S 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 S 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 S 5 8668 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com