Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 48 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 55 58 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 61 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 64 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 59 64 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 59 63 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 60 64 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 62 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 60 61 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 48 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 46 46 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 44 45 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 47 49 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 50 54 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 58 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 53 60 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 54 61 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 55 61 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 60 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 58 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 54 56 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 52 52 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 48 48 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 44 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 41 41 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 40 40 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 38 38 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 37 37 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 36 36 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 34 34 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 34 34 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 35 35 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 38 39 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 40 42 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 42 46 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 44 49 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 45 50 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 46 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 46 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 47 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 47 50 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 46 47 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 44 44 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 41 41 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 38 38 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 35 35 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 31 31 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 31 31 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 31 31 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 29 29 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 27 27 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 27 27 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 33 33 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 38 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 40 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 43 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 45 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 47 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 48 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 49 54 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 48 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 47 48 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 40 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 38 38 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 35 35 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 32 32 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 29 29 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 30 30 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 33 33 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 39 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 41 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 43 46 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 45 49 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 47 51 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 48 51 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 48 51 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 46 48 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 45 45 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 43 43 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 40 40 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 37 37 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 32 32 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 33 33 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 32 32 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 28 28 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 31 31 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 36 37 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 37 39 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 38 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 40 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 42 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 44 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 45 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 46 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 45 46 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 42 42 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 34 34 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 33 33 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 33 33 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 29 29 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com