Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 4 4 NW 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 4 4 NW 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 4 4 NW 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 4 4 NW 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 7 7 NW 10 8449 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 10 10 NW 10 8750 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 13 14 N 10 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 15 17 N 10 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 17 19 N 10 9656 9353 271 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 18 20 NW 15 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 18 19 NW 15 9656 9353 271 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 17 18 NW 15 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 16 16 NW 13 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 15 15 NW 13 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 14 14 NW 13 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 13 13 W 5 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 12 12 W 5 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 12 12 W 5 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 12 12 W 5 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 12 12 W 5 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 13 13 W 5 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 13 13 NW 3 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 14 14 NW 3 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 13 13 NW 3 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 13 13 W 12 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 12 12 W 12 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 12 12 W 12 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 14 14 SW 9 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 18 18 SW 9 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 23 24 SW 9 10390 9925 843 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 27 28 SW 18 11629 10567 1485 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 30 32 SW 18 14314 12284 3202 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 30 32 SW 18 14314 12284 3202 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 30 32 W 16 14314 12284 3202 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 29 30 W 16 13046 10970 1888 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 28 29 W 16 12360 10753 1671 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 26 26 W 16 10763 10196 1114 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 24 24 W 16 10390 9925 843 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 22 22 W 16 10061 9655 573 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 21 21 W 16 9929 9554 472 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 19 19 W 16 9656 9353 271 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 17 17 W 16 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 16 16 N 8 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 15 15 N 8 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 15 15 N 8 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 15 15 N 8 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 15 15 N 8 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 15 15 N 8 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 15 15 NW 7 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 14 14 NW 7 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 13 13 NW 7 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 14 14 NW 7 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 18 18 NW 7 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 25 NW 7 10576 10057 975 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 29 31 SW 8 13696 11567 2485 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 33 36 SW 8 16549 14791 5709 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 34 37 SW 8 17061 15352 6270 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 35 38 SW 8 17558 15893 6811 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 35 37 SW 8 17061 15352 6270 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 34 35 SW 8 16020 14208 5126 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 32 32 SW 12 14314 12284 3202 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 12360 10753 1671 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 26 26 SW 12 10763 10196 1114 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 24 24 SW 12 10390 9925 843 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 22 22 SW 12 10061 9655 573 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 20 20 SW 12 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 20 20 SW 9 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 19 19 SW 9 9656 9353 271 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 19 19 SW 9 9656 9353 271 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 19 19 SW 9 9656 9353 271 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 18 18 SW 9 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 17 17 SW 9 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 16 16 SW 14 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 15 15 SW 14 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 14 14 SW 14 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 15 15 SW 14 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 17 17 SW 14 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 21 21 SW 14 9929 9554 472 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 24 25 SW 9 10576 10057 975 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 27 28 SW 9 11629 10567 1485 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 28 29 SW 9 12360 10753 1671 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 28 29 SW 9 12360 10753 1671 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 26 27 SW 9 10988 10382 1300 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 24 24 SW 9 10390 9925 843 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 21 21 N 14 9929 9554 472 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 20 20 N 14 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 20 20 N 14 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 20 20 N 14 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 18 18 N 14 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 17 17 N 14 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 16 16 N 9 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 16 16 N 9 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 16 16 N 9 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 16 16 N 9 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 15 15 N 9 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 12 12 N 9 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 11 11 N 9 8851 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 9 9 N 9 8650 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 9 9 N 9 8650 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 10 10 N 9 8750 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 12 12 N 9 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 15 15 N 9 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 18 20 NW 7 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 21 23 NW 7 10203 9789 707 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 22 24 NW 7 10390 9925 843 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 23 25 NW 7 10576 10057 975 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 23 25 NW 7 10576 10057 975 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 21 22 NW 7 10061 9655 573 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 20 20 NW 10 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 18 18 NW 10 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 17 17 NW 10 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 16 16 NW 10 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 15 15 NW 10 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 14 14 NW 10 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 13 13 N 7 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 12 12 N 7 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 12 12 N 7 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 11 11 N 7 8851 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 12 12 N 7 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 12 12 N 7 8951 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 11 11 W 8 8851 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 10 10 W 8 8750 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 9 9 W 8 8650 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 9 9 W 8 8650 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 13 13 W 8 9052 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 17 17 W 8 9455 9153 71 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 22 23 W 8 10203 9789 707 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 24 25 W 8 10576 10057 975 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 24 26 W 8 10763 10196 1114 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 25 26 W 8 10763 10196 1114 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 25 26 W 8 10763 10196 1114 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 25 25 W 8 10576 10057 975 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 24 24 W 8 10390 9925 843 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 22 22 W 8 10061 9655 573 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 20 20 W 8 9792 9454 372 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 18 18 W 8 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 18 18 W 8 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 18 18 W 8 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 18 18 SW 6 9556 9253 171 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 16 16 SW 6 9354 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 15 15 SW 6 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 14 14 SW 6 9153 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 15 15 SW 6 9253 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 16 16 SW 6 9354 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com