Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 11 11 SW 25 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 12 12 SW 25 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 12 12 SW 25 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 13 13 SW 25 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 15 15 SW 25 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 16 16 SW 25 10621 9766 684 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 17 17 SW 23 10894 10061 979 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 18 19 SW 23 11436 10607 1525 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 18 19 SW 23 11436 10607 1525 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 18 19 SW 23 11436 10607 1525 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 17 18 SW 23 11166 10335 1253 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 17 17 SW 23 10894 10061 979 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 16 16 W 17 10621 9766 684 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 15 15 W 17 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 15 15 W 17 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 14 14 SW 16 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 13 13 SW 16 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 12 12 SW 16 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 11 11 SW 13 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 10 10 SW 13 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 10 10 SW 13 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 9 9 SW 12 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 8 8 SW 12 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 7 7 SW 12 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 6 6 SW 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 6 6 SW 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 7 7 SW 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 8 8 SW 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 10 10 SW 10 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 11 11 SW 10 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 13 13 N 8 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 14 14 N 8 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 15 15 N 8 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 15 15 N 8 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 14 14 N 8 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 13 13 N 8 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 12 12 N 12 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 12 12 N 12 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 12 12 N 12 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 12 12 N 12 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 12 12 N 12 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 11 11 N 12 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 9 9 N 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 8 8 N 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 7 7 N 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 6 6 N 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 5 5 N 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 4 4 N 10 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 4 4 N 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 3 3 N 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 4 4 N 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 5 5 N 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 7 7 N 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 10 10 N 8 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 12 13 N 8 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 14 15 N 8 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 14 16 N 8 10621 9766 684 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 14 15 N 8 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 14 15 N 8 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 15 15 N 8 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 14 14 N 9 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 13 13 N 9 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 12 12 N 9 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 10 10 N 9 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 9 9 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 8 8 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 8 8 N 7 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 7 7 N 7 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 6 6 N 7 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 5 5 N 7 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 3 3 N 7 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 2 2 N 7 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 1 1 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 0 0 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 1 1 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 3 3 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 7 7 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 12 13 N 6 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 16 18 N 6 11166 10335 1253 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 19 21 N 6 11971 11147 2065 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 20 23 N 6 12500 11681 2599 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 21 24 N 6 12702 11946 2864 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 21 23 N 6 12500 11681 2599 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 21 22 N 6 12236 11415 2333 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 19 19 N 6 11436 10607 1525 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 15 15 N 6 10346 9419 337 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 11 11 N 6 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 8 8 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 7 7 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 9 9 N 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 9 9 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 8 8 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 5 5 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 4 4 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 5 5 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 6 6 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 7 7 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 6 6 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 5 5 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 5 5 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 8 8 W 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 12 12 W 6 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 17 18 W 6 11166 10335 1253 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 19 21 W 6 11971 11147 2065 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 21 23 W 6 12500 11681 2599 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 21 23 W 6 12500 11681 2599 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 21 22 W 6 12236 11415 2333 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 20 20 W 6 11705 10878 1796 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 19 19 SW 6 11436 10607 1525 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 17 17 SW 6 10894 10061 979 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 16 16 SW 6 10621 9766 684 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 14 14 SW 6 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 13 13 SW 6 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 12 12 SW 6 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 12 12 SW 8 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 11 11 SW 8 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 11 11 SW 8 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 10 10 SW 8 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 9 9 SW 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 9 9 SW 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 8 8 S 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 8 8 S 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 8 8 S 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 8 8 S 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 8 8 S 6 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 10 10 S 6 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 11 11 N 8 9068 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 12 13 N 8 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 13 14 N 8 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 13 14 N 8 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 13 14 N 8 10069 9082 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 13 13 N 8 9773 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 12 12 NE 8 9423 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 10 10 NE 8 8710 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 9 9 NE 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 8 8 NE 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 8 8 NE 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 8 8 NE 8 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 8 8 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 7 7 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 6 6 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 5 5 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 5 5 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 5 5 N 9 8652 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com