Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 42 42 W 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 W 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 52 NW 6 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 57 NW 6 8655 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 61 NW 6 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 58 64 NE 3 11001 9629 547 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 60 67 NE 3 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 62 70 NE 3 12993 12203 3121 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 64 71 E 5 13246 12458 3376 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 67 73 E 5 13994 12963 3881 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 69 73 E 5 13994 12963 3881 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 70 73 W 8 13994 12963 3881 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 69 70 W 8 12993 12203 3121 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 11515 9990 908 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 8857 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 7 8452 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NE 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NE 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 S 2 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 2 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 2 8452 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 S 2 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 64 67 S 2 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 67 72 S 2 13498 12711 3629 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 69 76 SW 9 16639 13823 4741 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 71 79 SW 9 19033 16479 7397 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 72 81 SW 9 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 73 81 SW 14 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 75 82 SW 14 21912 18734 9652 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 77 82 SW 14 21912 18734 9652 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 78 81 W 16 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 16 17296 14872 5790 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 16 13994 12963 3881 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 12993 12203 3121 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 16 11963 10388 1306 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 16 10411 9263 181 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 20 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SW 20 9059 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 20 9059 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SW 20 8655 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SW 20 8452 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SW 20 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 10 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 10 8655 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 10 9265 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 W 10 11963 10388 1306 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 67 70 W 10 12993 12203 3121 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 69 74 W 10 15056 13214 4132 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 71 78 SW 12 18039 15792 6710 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 71 79 SW 12 19033 16479 7397 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 72 80 SW 12 20078 17129 8047 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 73 81 SW 12 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 74 81 SW 12 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 74 79 SW 12 19033 16479 7397 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 74 77 W 16 17296 14872 5790 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 73 74 W 16 15056 13214 4132 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 16 12993 12203 3121 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 16 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 16 11001 9629 547 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 16 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 8857 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 8 8655 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 8452 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 W 8 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 8 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 W 5 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 W 5 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 W 5 8452 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 W 5 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 64 67 W 5 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 68 73 W 5 13994 12963 3881 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 71 78 NW 5 18039 15792 6710 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 73 81 NW 5 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 74 82 NW 5 21912 18734 9652 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 76 84 NW 5 23422 20691 11609 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 78 85 NW 5 24100 21563 12481 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 79 84 NW 5 23422 20691 11609 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 78 81 NW 6 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 76 77 NW 6 17296 14872 5790 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 13246 12458 3376 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 67 67 NW 6 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 11001 9629 547 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 10000 9082 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 60 60 N 6 9265 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 6 8655 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 S 3 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 8655 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 S 3 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 64 67 S 3 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 68 73 S 3 13994 12963 3881 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 71 78 SW 5 18039 15792 6710 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 73 81 SW 5 21049 17749 8667 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 75 83 SW 5 22697 19705 10623 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 76 84 SW 5 23422 20691 11609 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 78 85 SW 5 24100 21563 12481 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 80 85 SW 5 24100 21563 12481 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 79 82 NW 8 21912 18734 9652 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 76 77 NW 8 17296 14872 5790 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 72 72 NW 8 13498 12711 3629 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 8 12484 11482 2400 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 65 65 NW 8 11515 9990 908 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 63 63 NW 8 10411 9263 181 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 61 61 NE 14 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NE 14 9059 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 14 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NE 14 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 14 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 NE 14 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 NE 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NE 7 8452 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 NE 7 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 64 67 NE 7 12228 10969 1887 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 69 74 NE 7 15056 13214 4132 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 72 79 SE 5 19033 16479 7397 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 74 82 SE 5 21912 18734 9652 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 75 83 SE 5 22697 19705 10623 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 77 85 SE 5 24100 21563 12481 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 79 86 SE 5 24740 22354 13272 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 81 86 SE 5 24740 22354 13272 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 82 85 W 7 24100 21563 12481 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 79 80 W 7 20078 17129 8047 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 7 15056 13214 4132 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 7 12739 11924 2842 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 7 11963 10388 1306 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 7 11001 9629 547 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 61 61 W 5 9634 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 W 5 8857 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 5 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 5 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 W 5 8287 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 W 5 8287 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com