Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 W 2 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 2 7972 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 E 3 10487 9082 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 61 64 E 3 13927 11915 2833 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 64 69 E 3 16761 14989 5907 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 66 71 S 7 17232 16466 7384 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 67 73 S 7 19878 16937 7855 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 68 74 S 7 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 69 74 SW 12 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 69 74 SW 12 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 69 72 SW 12 18611 16702 7620 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 68 69 W 13 16761 14989 5907 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 13 15649 13836 4754 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 13 14522 12585 3503 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 8 12659 10454 1372 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 10487 9082 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 8804 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 6 7972 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 W 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 W 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 W 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 7972 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 N 3 9611 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 N 3 12659 10454 1372 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 62 65 N 3 14522 12585 3503 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 64 66 NE 6 15096 13224 4142 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 66 69 NE 6 16761 14989 5907 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 67 70 NE 6 16997 15536 6454 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 67 70 SW 8 16997 15536 6454 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 66 68 SW 8 16523 14423 5341 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 64 66 SW 8 15096 13224 4142 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 61 61 SW 9 11977 9605 523 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 58 58 SW 9 9611 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 9 8392 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 SW 9 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 SW 9 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SW 9 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 57 NE 3 9211 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 61 NE 3 11977 9605 523 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 62 65 NE 3 14522 12585 3503 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 64 68 E 7 16523 14423 5341 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 66 70 E 7 16997 15536 6454 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 68 73 E 7 19878 16937 7855 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 69 73 E 7 19878 16937 7855 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 69 72 E 7 18611 16702 7620 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 67 69 E 7 16761 14989 5907 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 65 66 N 7 15096 13224 4142 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 63 63 N 7 13307 11207 2125 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 11977 9605 523 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 59 59 N 7 10487 9082 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 58 58 N 7 9611 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 N 7 9211 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 E 5 8804 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 E 5 8392 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 E 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 E 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 6 7972 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 60 N 6 11256 9210 128 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 62 65 N 6 14522 12585 3503 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 64 69 N 6 16761 14989 5907 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 66 71 NE 8 17232 16466 7384 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 68 74 NE 8 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 70 76 NE 8 22709 19460 10378 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 71 76 NE 8 22709 19460 10378 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 71 76 NE 8 22709 19460 10378 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 71 74 NE 8 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 70 72 N 10 18611 16702 7620 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 69 70 N 10 16997 15536 6454 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 68 68 N 10 16523 14423 5341 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 66 66 N 10 15096 13224 4142 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 64 64 N 10 13927 11915 2833 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 10 11256 9210 128 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 57 57 N 5 9211 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 5 8392 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 N 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NW 5 9211 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 NW 5 13307 11207 2125 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 65 68 NW 5 16523 14423 5341 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 68 73 NW 5 19878 16937 7855 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 71 78 W 12 24187 21502 12420 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 73 81 W 12 26583 23820 14738 White 22
1 PM Wed 74 83 W 12 26963 25753 16671 White 24
2 PM Wed 75 83 W 12 26963 25753 16671 White 24
3 PM Wed 74 81 W 12 26583 23820 14738 White 22
4 PM Wed 73 78 W 12 24187 21502 12420 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 72 74 W 14 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 70 71 W 14 17232 16466 7384 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 14 16761 14989 5907 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 14 15649 13836 4754 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 14 13927 11915 2833 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 14 11256 9210 128 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 9211 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 6 8392 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 W 6 7972 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 W 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 W 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 W 6 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 W 7 8392 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 60 W 7 11256 9210 128 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 62 65 W 7 14522 12585 3503 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 63 68 W 7 16523 14423 5341 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 65 72 W 16 18611 16702 7620 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 68 76 W 16 22709 19460 10378 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 71 80 W 16 26391 23110 14028 White 21
2 PM Thu 72 80 W 16 26391 23110 14028 White 21
3 PM Thu 71 78 W 16 24187 21502 12420 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 69 74 W 16 20950 17170 8088 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 68 71 W 18 17232 16466 7384 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 67 68 W 18 16523 14423 5341 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 18 15096 13224 4142 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 18 13927 11915 2833 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 18 11977 9605 523 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 18 9211 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 7 7972 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 7 7766 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com