Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 29 29 W 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 W 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 W 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 W 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 W 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 39 41 W 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 45 SW 7 9534 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 49 SW 7 11022 10086 1004 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 50 52 SW 7 11298 11016 1934 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 51 53 W 9 11390 11108 2026 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 51 52 W 9 11298 11016 1934 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 50 51 W 9 11206 10774 1692 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 48 48 SW 8 10792 9527 445 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 45 45 SW 8 9534 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 SW 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 SW 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 SW 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 SW 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 SW 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 SW 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 SW 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 SW 12 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 12 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 SW 12 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 W 12 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 W 12 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 47 W 12 10447 9082 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 49 51 W 17 11206 10774 1692 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 52 55 W 17 11574 11292 2210 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 53 56 W 17 11666 11383 2301 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 54 57 W 21 11757 11475 2393 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 54 56 W 21 11666 11383 2301 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 52 53 W 21 11390 11108 2026 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 21 11022 10086 1004 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 21 10099 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 21 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 20 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 W 20 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 20 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 43 W 8 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 48 N 12 10792 9527 445 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 48 52 N 12 11298 11016 1934 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 51 55 N 12 11574 11292 2210 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 53 56 N 12 11666 11383 2301 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 53 55 N 12 11574 11292 2210 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 53 54 N 12 11482 11200 2118 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 51 51 N 9 11206 10774 1692 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 47 47 N 9 10447 9082 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 43 43 N 9 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 N 9 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 N 9 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 N 9 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 W 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 W 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 W 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 W 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 W 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 NW 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 NW 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 NW 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NW 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 NW 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 50 NW 5 11114 10433 1351 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 54 57 N 6 11757 11475 2393 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 57 61 N 6 13063 11839 2757 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 58 62 N 6 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 58 61 N 6 13063 11839 2757 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 60 62 N 6 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 61 62 N 6 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 60 60 E 6 12362 11749 2667 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 55 55 E 6 11574 11292 2210 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 48 48 E 6 10792 9527 445 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 44 44 E 6 8945 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 E 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 E 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 S 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 S 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 S 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 S 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 S 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 S 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 SW 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 SW 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 SW 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 SW 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 SW 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 SW 6 11206 10774 1692 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 56 59 NW 5 11938 11659 2577 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 60 64 NW 5 15122 12978 3896 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 61 65 NW 5 16174 13653 4571 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 62 65 NW 5 16174 13653 4571 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 63 65 NW 5 16174 13653 4571 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 63 64 NW 5 15122 12978 3896 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 62 62 W 5 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 11757 11475 2393 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 51 51 W 5 11206 10774 1692 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 46 46 W 5 10099 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 W 5 9534 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 W 5 9534 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 W 5 9534 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 W 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 W 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 W 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 W 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 W 5 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 W 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 W 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 W 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 W 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 W 3 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 48 W 3 10792 9527 445 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 51 54 N 5 11482 11200 2118 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 55 59 N 5 11938 11659 2577 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 58 62 N 5 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 59 62 N 5 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 60 62 N 5 13759 11930 2848 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 59 60 N 5 12362 11749 2667 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 11757 11475 2393 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 11390 11108 2026 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 10792 9527 445 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 44 44 N 7 8945 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 N 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 N 7 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 N 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 N 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 N 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 N 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 N 6 8366 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com