Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 S 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 S 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 S 3 8907 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 S 3 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 68 72 S 3 12444 11897 2815 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 71 76 E 8 15512 12576 3494 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 74 80 E 8 17563 16019 6937 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 76 83 E 8 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 77 83 SW 10 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 78 83 SW 10 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 77 81 SW 10 17717 16630 7548 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 76 78 SW 13 16793 14707 5625 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 73 73 SW 13 12592 12080 2998 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 13 12097 11530 2448 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 67 67 SW 12 11544 10168 1086 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 63 63 SW 12 9864 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 12 9229 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 W 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 W 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 SW 2 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SW 2 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SW 2 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 2 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 SW 2 10605 9543 461 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 67 71 SW 2 12280 11714 2632 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 71 77 NW 10 16159 13907 4825 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 74 81 NW 10 17717 16630 7548 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 76 83 NW 10 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 77 84 NW 10 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 78 84 NW 10 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 77 81 NW 10 17717 16630 7548 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 76 78 W 12 16793 14707 5625 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 12 12592 12080 2998 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 12 12097 11530 2448 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 12 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 63 63 W 12 9864 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 12 9229 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NW 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 66 W 3 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 68 72 W 3 12444 11897 2815 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 72 77 SW 7 16159 13907 4825 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 75 81 SW 7 17717 16630 7548 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 77 84 SW 7 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 78 84 SW 7 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 79 84 SW 7 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 79 83 SW 7 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 78 80 SW 10 17563 16019 6937 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 76 76 SW 10 15512 12576 3494 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 10 12592 12080 2998 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 10 12097 11530 2448 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 10 11544 10168 1086 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 64 64 SW 10 10178 9228 146 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 6 9229 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 N 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 W 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 W 3 9547 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 W 3 11544 10168 1086 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 71 73 W 3 12592 12080 2998 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 74 79 E 8 17409 15380 6298 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 76 82 E 8 17902 17368 8286 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 78 84 E 8 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 78 84 E 8 19458 17674 8592 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 78 83 E 8 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 77 80 E 8 17563 16019 6937 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 76 77 S 10 16159 13907 4825 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 74 74 S 10 14110 12262 3180 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 72 72 S 10 12444 11897 2815 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 69 69 S 10 11913 11097 2015 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 66 66 S 10 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 63 63 S 10 9864 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 SW 7 8907 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 3 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 SW 3 9547 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 SW 3 11728 10582 1500 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 70 73 SW 3 12592 12080 2998 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 73 77 S 7 16159 13907 4825 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 75 80 S 7 17563 16019 6937 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 77 82 S 7 17902 17368 8286 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 78 83 S 7 18517 17521 8439 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 78 82 S 7 17902 17368 8286 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 77 80 S 7 17563 16019 6937 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 75 76 SW 10 15512 12576 3494 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 10 12592 12080 2998 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 10 12280 11714 2632 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 11913 11097 2015 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 66 66 SW 10 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 62 62 SW 10 9547 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SW 7 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 W 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 W 5 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 W 5 8907 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 W 5 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 68 71 W 5 12280 11714 2632 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 71 75 S 10 14832 12428 3346 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 73 78 S 10 16793 14707 5625 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 74 79 S 10 17409 15380 6298 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 75 80 S 10 17563 16019 6937 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 75 79 S 10 17409 15380 6298 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 74 77 S 10 16159 13907 4825 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 73 74 SW 14 14110 12262 3180 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 71 71 SW 14 12280 11714 2632 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 14 11728 10582 1500 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 14 11129 9857 775 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 14 9864 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 14 8907 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 9 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 9 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 SW 9 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 9 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 9 8763 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 9 8763 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com