Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 JAN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 16 16 SSW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 15 15 SSW 5 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 14 14 SW 5 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 14 14 SW 3 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 12 12 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 12 12 WSW 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 11 11 WSW 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 10 10 WSW 17 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 11 11 WSW 20 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 14 14 WSW 22 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 16 16 W 20 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 18 18 W 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 19 19 W 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 20 20 WNW 16 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 20 20 W 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 19 19 W 17 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 16 16 W 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 16 16 W 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 14 14 W 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 14 14 W 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 13 13 W 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 12 12 W 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 11 11 W 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 11 11 W 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 9 9 W 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 9 9 W 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 7 7 W 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 6 6 W 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 4 4 W 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 3 3 W 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 2 2 W 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 1 1 W 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 4 4 W 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 11 11 W 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 13 14 W 6 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 18 20 W 6 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 21 23 W 6 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 22 23 SW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 22 23 SW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 21 21 SW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 20 20 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 18 18 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 17 17 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 15 15 SSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 15 15 SSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 15 15 SSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 16 16 SSW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 16 16 SSW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 17 17 SSW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 17 17 SSW 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 17 17 SSW 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 16 16 SSW 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 16 16 S 20 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 15 15 S 20 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 15 15 S 20 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 16 16 S 25 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 17 17 S 25 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 18 18 S 25 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 20 20 S 21 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 22 22 S 21 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 24 24 S 21 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 25 25 S 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 24 24 S 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 23 23 S 18 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 23 23 SSE 16 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 23 23 SSE 16 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 23 23 SSE 16 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 24 24 SSE 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 24 24 SSE 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 24 24 SSE 15 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 24 S 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 24 24 S 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 24 24 S 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 24 24 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 22 22 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 21 21 S 14 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 20 20 S 14 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 20 20 S 14 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 20 20 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 21 21 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 23 23 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 25 S 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 26 26 S 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 28 28 S 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 28 28 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 27 27 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 26 26 S 13 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 25 25 SSW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 24 24 S 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 S 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 S 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 SSW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 23 23 SW 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 22 22 SW 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 21 21 SW 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 SW 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 18 18 SW 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 17 17 SW 8 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 16 16 SW 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 17 17 SW 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 20 20 SW 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 22 22 WSW 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 24 24 WSW 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 25 25 WSW 7 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 26 27 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 25 25 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 24 24 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 22 22 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 21 21 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 20 20 WSW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 19 19 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 19 19 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 18 18 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 18 18 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 17 17 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 17 17 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 16 16 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 16 16 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 16 16 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 16 16 SW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 15 15 SW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 14 14 SW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 14 14 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 17 17 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 20 20 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 24 24 SW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 27 28 SW 9 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 29 30 SW 9 9186 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 31 SW 10 9694 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 30 31 SW 10 9694 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 28 28 SW 10 8671 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 26 26 SW 12 8671 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com