Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 N 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 48 N 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 52 SW 10 9145 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 56 SW 10 11709 9663 1642 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 54 60 SW 10 13300 12318 4297 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 56 61 S 9 13465 12932 4911 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 57 61 S 9 13465 12932 4911 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 58 61 S 9 13465 12932 4911 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 57 58 S 10 12970 10928 2907 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 55 55 S 10 10981 9137 1116 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 53 53 S 10 9679 8589 568 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 S 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 S 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 S 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 SW 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SW 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 SW 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 SW 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SW 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 SW 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 SW 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 55 SW 6 10981 9137 1116 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 55 59 SW 17 13135 11642 3621 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 58 63 SW 17 13807 13275 5254 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 60 66 SW 17 15072 13777 5756 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 62 67 SW 18 15453 14108 6087 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 62 66 SW 18 15072 13777 5756 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 61 64 SW 18 14183 13439 5418 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 60 61 SW 18 13465 12932 4911 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 57 57 SW 18 12395 10174 2153 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 18 10981 9137 1116 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 52 52 SW 18 9145 8589 568 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 SW 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 W 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 W 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 48 NW 9 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 52 NW 17 9145 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 55 NW 17 10981 9137 1116 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 51 56 NW 17 11709 9663 1642 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 52 57 NW 17 12395 10174 2153 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 53 57 NW 17 12395 10174 2153 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 52 54 NW 17 10205 8597 576 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 51 N 18 8596 8589 568 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 N 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 N 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 N 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 N 18 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 N 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 N 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 N 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 N 10 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 N 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 N 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 N 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 48 N 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 51 SW 7 8596 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 55 SW 7 10981 9137 1116 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 50 56 SW 7 11709 9663 1642 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 51 56 SW 7 11709 9663 1642 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 53 57 SW 7 12395 10174 2153 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 53 56 SW 7 11709 9663 1642 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 53 54 E 6 10205 8597 576 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 E 6 8596 8589 568 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 E 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 E 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 E 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 E 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NE 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NE 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NW 3 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NW 3 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NW 3 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NW 3 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 NW 3 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 53 NW 3 9679 8589 568 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 58 SE 8 12970 10928 2907 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 54 60 SE 8 13300 12318 4297 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 55 61 SE 8 13465 12932 4911 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 57 63 SE 8 13807 13275 5254 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 59 63 SE 8 13807 13275 5254 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 61 64 SE 8 14183 13439 5418 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 61 62 SE 7 13629 13111 5090 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 58 58 SE 7 12970 10928 2907 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 54 54 SE 7 10205 8597 576 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 SE 7 8596 8589 568 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 SE 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SE 7 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 S 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 S 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 S 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 S 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 S 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 SW 5 9145 8589 568 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 58 SW 5 12970 10928 2907 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 59 63 S 10 13807 13275 5254 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 61 66 S 10 15072 13777 5756 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 61 66 S 10 15072 13777 5756 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 62 67 S 10 15453 14108 6087 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 62 66 S 10 15072 13777 5756 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 63 65 S 10 14604 13603 5582 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 62 63 S 10 13807 13275 5254 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 60 60 S 10 13300 12318 4297 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 57 57 S 10 12395 10174 2153 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 54 54 S 10 10205 8597 576 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 S 10 9679 8589 568 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 S 10 9679 8589 568 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 8 9145 8589 568 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 8 8596 8589 568 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 8 8589 8589 568 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com