Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 W 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 W 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 W 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 SW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 68 SW 7 11727 11125 3104 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 67 72 SW 7 13745 11892 3871 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 70 77 SW 13 15780 14621 6600 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 72 80 SW 13 16210 15747 7726 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 74 83 SW 13 16888 16175 8154 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 75 83 SW 14 16888 16175 8154 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 76 83 SW 14 16888 16175 8154 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 76 81 SW 14 16353 15890 7869 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 75 78 W 13 15923 15054 7033 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 73 74 W 13 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 13 13168 11710 3689 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 68 68 N 12 11727 11125 3104 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 66 66 N 12 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 65 65 N 12 11176 8570 549 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 64 64 NW 9 9911 8570 549 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 NW 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 NW 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 NW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 NW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 66 NW 7 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 66 71 NW 7 13168 11710 3689 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 68 75 SW 13 15143 13655 5634 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 70 78 SW 13 15923 15054 7033 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 72 80 SW 13 16210 15747 7726 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 74 82 W 16 16496 16033 8012 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 75 82 W 16 16496 16033 8012 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 76 81 W 16 16353 15890 7869 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 75 77 W 14 15780 14621 6600 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 73 74 W 14 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 14 13168 11710 3689 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 14 11945 11344 3323 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 14 11727 11125 3104 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 14 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 7 11176 8570 549 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 9911 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 3 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 W 3 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 3 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 3 9911 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 67 W 3 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 67 71 W 3 13168 11710 3689 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 69 74 S 14 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 70 75 S 14 15143 13655 5634 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 72 78 S 14 15923 15054 7033 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 74 79 S 14 16067 15479 7458 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 75 80 S 14 16210 15747 7726 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 76 79 S 14 16067 15479 7458 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 76 79 S 13 16067 15479 7458 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 73 74 S 13 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 70 70 S 13 12569 11527 3506 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 68 68 S 13 11727 11125 3104 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 66 66 S 13 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 66 66 S 13 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 65 65 SW 6 11176 8570 549 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 6 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 6 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 6 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 S 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 63 S 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 67 S 5 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 67 72 S 5 13745 11892 3871 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 69 74 S 12 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 72 78 S 12 15923 15054 7033 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 74 80 S 12 16210 15747 7726 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 76 82 S 12 16496 16033 8012 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 77 82 S 12 16496 16033 8012 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 77 81 S 12 16353 15890 7869 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 75 77 S 14 15780 14621 6600 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 73 74 S 14 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 70 70 S 14 12569 11527 3506 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 68 68 S 14 11727 11125 3104 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 67 67 S 14 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 66 66 S 14 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 11176 8570 549 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 8 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 8 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 8 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 8 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 8 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 NE 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 NE 5 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 66 NE 5 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 65 70 NE 5 12569 11527 3506 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 68 73 S 10 14258 12495 4474 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 70 76 S 10 15572 14179 6158 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 73 79 S 10 16067 15479 7458 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 75 81 S 10 16353 15890 7869 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 76 81 S 10 16353 15890 7869 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 76 80 S 10 16210 15747 7726 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 75 77 SE 10 15780 14621 6600 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 72 73 SE 10 14258 12495 4474 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 69 69 SE 10 11945 11344 3323 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 67 67 SE 10 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 SE 10 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 66 66 SE 10 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 66 66 SE 9 11360 8570 549 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 SE 9 11176 8570 549 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 62 62 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SE 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 SE 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 SE 7 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 67 SE 7 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 67 72 SE 7 13745 11892 3871 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 69 75 SE 10 15143 13655 5634 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 71 78 SE 10 15923 15054 7033 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 73 80 SE 10 16210 15747 7726 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 75 82 SE 10 16496 16033 8012 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 76 82 SE 10 16496 16033 8012 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 77 81 SE 10 16353 15890 7869 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 76 78 S 12 15923 15054 7033 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 73 74 S 12 14705 13086 5065 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 70 70 S 12 12569 11527 3506 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 68 68 S 12 11727 11125 3104 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 67 67 S 12 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 67 67 S 12 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 67 67 SE 9 11544 9860 1839 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SE 9 11176 8570 549 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 62 62 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 SE 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com