Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 38 38 NW 10 7592 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 10 7592 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 7652 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 46 NW 10 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 49 NW 10 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 52 NW 10 10758 9548 1527 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 49 53 NW 10 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 50 54 NW 10 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 51 55 NW 10 11350 10745 2724 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 52 56 NW 10 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 54 57 NW 10 11743 11138 3117 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 56 58 NW 10 12012 11334 3313 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 57 59 NW 13 12426 11529 3508 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 56 57 NW 13 11743 11138 3117 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 54 54 NW 13 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 13 10758 9548 1527 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 9822 9016 995 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NW 13 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 14 9288 8478 457 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 14 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NW 12 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NW 12 8476 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 12 8203 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 8203 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NW 10 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 NW 10 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 53 NW 9 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 54 57 NW 9 11743 11138 3117 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 55 60 NW 9 13003 11724 3703 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 56 62 NW 8 14099 12356 4335 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 57 64 NW 8 15460 13475 5454 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 59 66 NW 8 16888 14523 6502 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 61 68 NW 8 19839 16022 8001 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 63 69 NW 8 21342 16707 8686 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 65 69 NW 8 21342 16707 8686 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 65 67 N 9 17963 15292 7271 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 64 65 N 9 16197 14007 5986 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 9 13560 11983 3962 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 9 12012 11334 3313 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 9 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 9 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 8 10758 9548 1527 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 10087 9283 1262 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 8 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 8 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 W 8 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 NW 6 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 6 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NW 6 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 58 59 NW 6 12426 11529 3508 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 60 63 NW 6 14667 12925 4904 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 61 65 NW 6 16197 14007 5986 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 62 67 S 10 17963 15292 7271 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 62 68 S 10 19839 16022 8001 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 63 69 S 10 21342 16707 8686 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 65 70 S 10 21995 17356 9335 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 67 71 S 10 22206 19127 11106 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 68 71 S 10 22206 19127 11106 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 68 69 SW 10 21342 16707 8686 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 10 16888 14523 6502 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 10 14667 12925 4904 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 60 60 SW 10 13003 11724 3703 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 57 57 SW 10 11743 11138 3117 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 56 56 SW 10 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 56 56 W 7 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 W 7 11350 10745 2724 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 7 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 7 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 51 51 W 7 10087 9283 1262 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 W 7 9822 9016 995 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 9822 9016 995 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 W 6 10758 9548 1527 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 55 55 W 6 11350 10745 2724 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 58 59 W 6 12426 11529 3508 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 60 63 W 6 14667 12925 4904 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 62 66 W 6 16888 14523 6502 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 63 67 S 10 17963 15292 7271 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 64 69 S 10 21342 16707 8686 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 66 71 S 10 22206 19127 11106 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 67 71 S 10 22206 19127 11106 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 68 72 S 10 22416 20777 12756 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 68 70 S 10 21995 17356 9335 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 67 68 SW 18 19839 16022 8001 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 18 15460 13475 5454 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 18 13560 11983 3962 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 18 12012 11334 3313 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 56 56 SW 18 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 55 55 SW 18 11350 10745 2724 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 55 55 NW 8 11350 10745 2724 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NW 8 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 53 53 NW 8 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 51 51 NW 8 10087 9283 1262 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NW 8 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NW 8 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 6 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 9288 8478 457 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 9822 9016 995 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 54 N 6 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 55 57 N 6 11743 11138 3117 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 56 60 N 6 13003 11724 3703 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 57 61 S 13 13560 11983 3962 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 59 64 S 13 15460 13475 5454 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 60 65 S 13 16197 14007 5986 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 62 66 S 13 16888 14523 6502 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 62 66 S 13 16888 14523 6502 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 61 63 S 13 14667 12925 4904 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 60 61 SW 18 13560 11983 3962 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 18 12012 11334 3313 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 56 56 SW 18 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 18 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 51 51 SW 18 10087 9283 1262 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 SW 18 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 NW 10 9288 8478 457 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NW 10 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NW 10 9288 8478 457 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 8203 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NW 10 7652 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NW 8 7592 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NW 8 7928 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 NW 8 10087 9283 1262 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 54 NW 8 11153 10076 2055 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 52 56 NW 8 11547 10942 2921 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 53 58 NW 8 12012 11334 3313 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 55 61 NW 8 13560 11983 3962 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 57 63 NW 8 14667 12925 4904 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 60 65 NW 8 16197 14007 5986 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 61 65 NW 8 16197 14007 5986 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 62 65 NW 8 16197 14007 5986 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 61 62 W 10 14099 12356 4335 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 10 13003 11724 3703 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 10 11743 11138 3117 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 10 11350 10745 2724 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 10 10956 9813 1792 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 10 10087 9283 1262 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 8 9822 9016 995 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 8 9556 8747 726 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 8 9288 8478 457 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 8 9019 8207 186 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NW 8 8748 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NW 8 8476 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com