Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 9162 8625 604 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 SW 6 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 66 67 S 5 13755 11481 3460 White 6
9 AM Sat 67 69 S 5 14199 13117 5096 White 8
10 AM Sat 68 71 S 5 14639 14639 6618 White 10
11 AM Sat 69 72 S 10 14857 14857 6836 White 11
12 Noon Sat 70 73 S 10 15073 15073 7052 White 12
1 PM Sat 71 74 S 10 15290 15290 7269 White 13
2 PM Sat 72 75 S 15 15506 15506 7485 White 14
3 PM Sat 72 75 S 15 15506 15506 7485 White 14
4 PM Sat 71 73 S 15 15073 15073 7052 White 12
5 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 14421 13852 5831 White 9
6 PM Sat 69 69 SW 14 14199 13117 5096 White 8
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 14 13755 11481 3460 White 6
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 10 13531 10547 2526 White 5
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 10 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 5 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 5 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 5 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 62 62 NW 5 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 9340 8803 782 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 NW 7 9162 8625 604 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 NW 7 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NW 7 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 64 64 NW 7 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 66 68 NW 7 13977 12331 4310 White 7
10 AM Sun 67 70 NW 7 14421 13852 5831 White 9
11 AM Sun 68 71 NE 6 14639 14639 6618 White 10
12 Noon Sun 68 71 NE 6 14639 14639 6618 White 10
1 PM Sun 69 72 NE 6 14857 14857 6836 White 11
2 PM Sun 70 73 S 6 15073 15073 7052 White 12
3 PM Sun 71 74 S 6 15290 15290 7269 White 13
4 PM Sun 71 73 S 6 15073 15073 7052 White 12
5 PM Sun 71 72 W 10 14857 14857 6836 White 11
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 14421 13852 5831 White 9
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 10 13977 12331 4310 White 7
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 13531 10547 2526 White 5
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 6 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NW 6 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 62 62 NW 6 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 61 61 NW 6 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 NW 6 9340 8803 782 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 9162 8625 604 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 W 6 9340 8803 782 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 69 70 W 6 14421 13852 5831 White 9
9 AM Mon 71 73 W 6 15073 15073 7052 White 12
10 AM Mon 72 75 W 6 15506 15506 7485 White 14
11 AM Mon 73 77 SW 8 15935 15935 7914 White 16
12 Noon Mon 74 78 SW 8 16149 16149 8128 White 17
1 PM Mon 75 80 SW 8 16574 16574 8553 White 19
2 PM Mon 76 81 SW 8 16787 16787 8766 White 20
3 PM Mon 76 80 SW 8 16574 16574 8553 White 19
4 PM Mon 76 79 SW 8 16361 16361 8340 White 18
5 PM Mon 76 77 SW 10 15935 15935 7914 White 16
6 PM Mon 75 75 SW 10 15506 15506 7485 White 14
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 10 15073 15073 7052 White 12
8 PM Mon 71 71 SW 10 14639 14639 6618 White 10
9 PM Mon 68 68 SW 10 13977 12331 4310 White 7
10 PM Mon 67 67 SW 10 13755 11481 3460 White 6
11 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 SW 6 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 6 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 6 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 61 61 SW 6 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 SW 6 9340 8803 782 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 9162 8625 604 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 SW 3 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 SW 3 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 67 68 SW 3 13977 12331 4310 White 7
9 AM Tue 70 72 SW 3 14857 14857 6836 White 11
10 AM Tue 71 74 SW 3 15290 15290 7269 White 13
11 AM Tue 73 77 S 6 15935 15935 7914 White 16
12 Noon Tue 74 79 S 6 16361 16361 8340 White 18
1 PM Tue 76 81 S 6 16787 16787 8766 White 20
2 PM Tue 77 82 S 6 16998 16998 8977 White 21
3 PM Tue 78 82 S 6 16998 16998 8977 White 21
4 PM Tue 79 82 S 6 16998 16998 8977 White 21
5 PM Tue 78 80 SW 8 16574 16574 8553 White 19
6 PM Tue 76 77 SW 8 15935 15935 7914 White 16
7 PM Tue 73 73 SW 8 15073 15073 7052 White 12
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 8 14421 13852 5831 White 9
9 PM Tue 68 68 SW 8 13977 12331 4310 White 7
10 PM Tue 68 68 SW 8 13977 12331 4310 White 7
11 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 13755 11481 3460 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 5 13531 10547 2526 White 5
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 5 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 63 63 W 5 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 5 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 NW 3 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 68 69 NW 3 14199 13117 5096 White 8
9 AM Wed 70 72 NW 3 14857 14857 6836 White 11
10 AM Wed 72 76 NW 3 15721 15721 7700 White 15
11 AM Wed 73 78 SW 10 16149 16149 8128 White 17
12 Noon Wed 75 81 SW 10 16787 16787 8766 White 20
1 PM Wed 76 82 SW 10 16998 16998 8977 White 21
2 PM Wed 77 83 SW 10 17208 17208 9187 White 22
3 PM Wed 79 84 SW 10 17418 17418 9397 White 23
4 PM Wed 80 83 SW 10 17208 17208 9187 White 22
5 PM Wed 79 81 SW 13 16787 16787 8766 White 20
6 PM Wed 77 78 SW 13 16149 16149 8128 White 17
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 13 15073 15073 7052 White 12
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 13 14421 13852 5831 White 9
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 14199 13117 5096 White 8
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 13 13977 12331 4310 White 7
11 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 13977 12331 4310 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NW 5 13755 11481 3460 White 6
1 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 11561 9518 1497 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 62 62 NW 5 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 61 61 NW 5 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NW 5 9523 8981 960 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 13531 10547 2526 White 5
8 AM Thu 68 69 NW 5 14199 13117 5096 White 8
9 AM Thu 71 73 NW 5 15073 15073 7052 White 12
10 AM Thu 73 77 NW 5 15935 15935 7914 White 16
11 AM Thu 75 80 NW 10 16574 16574 8553 White 19
12 Noon Thu 77 83 NW 10 17208 17208 9187 White 22
1 PM Thu 79 86 NW 10 17838 17838 9817 White 25
2 PM Thu 81 87 NW 10 18051 18051 10030 White 26
3 PM Thu 83 88 NW 10 18263 18263 10242 White 27
4 PM Thu 83 87 NW 10 18051 18051 10030 White 26
5 PM Thu 82 84 SW 13 17418 17418 9397 White 23
6 PM Thu 80 81 SW 13 16787 16787 8766 White 20
7 PM Thu 77 77 SW 13 15935 15935 7914 White 16
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 13 15290 15290 7269 White 13
9 PM Thu 71 71 SW 13 14639 14639 6618 White 10
10 PM Thu 70 70 SW 13 14421 13852 5831 White 9
11 PM Thu 68 68 NW 8 13977 12331 4310 White 7
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NW 8 13977 12331 4310 White 7
1 AM Fri 67 67 NW 8 13755 11481 3460 White 6
2 AM Fri 65 65 NW 8 12428 9959 1938 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 63 63 NW 8 10606 9336 1315 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 62 62 NW 8 9979 9159 1138 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com