Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 E 2 9826 8625 604 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 50 E 2 11012 9812 1791 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 50 52 E 2 13286 10593 2572 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 50 52 E 2 13286 10593 2572 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 50 51 E 2 11401 10197 2176 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 48 48 E 2 10216 9026 1005 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 SE 5 9431 8379 358 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 SE 5 8624 8379 358 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 SE 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 SE 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 SE 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 SE 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 W 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 W 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 W 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 W 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 W 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 W 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 W 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 SW 5 9031 8379 358 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 SW 5 10216 9026 1005 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 SW 5 11012 9812 1791 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 48 50 NW 5 11012 9812 1791 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 48 49 NW 5 10617 9422 1401 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 46 46 NW 5 9431 8379 358 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 8624 8379 358 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 NW 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 NW 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 NW 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 NW 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 NW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 NW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 NW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 NW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 N 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 N 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 N 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 N 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 36 N 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 39 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 42 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 44 SE 3 8624 8379 358 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 45 SE 3 9031 8379 358 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 43 44 SE 3 8624 8379 358 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 42 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 40 40 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 SE 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 38 SE 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 40 SE 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 40 41 SE 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 40 41 SE 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 40 41 SE 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 39 39 SE 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 37 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 35 35 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 S 5 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 S 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 S 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 S 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 S 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 S 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 35 S 3 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 39 S 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 39 41 S 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 40 42 S 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 40 42 S 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 40 41 S 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 39 39 S 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 38 38 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 36 36 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 33 33 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 31 31 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 S 7 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 SW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 SW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 SW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 SW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 SW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 SW 6 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 34 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 37 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 38 39 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 39 41 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 39 40 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 38 39 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 38 38 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 37 37 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 36 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 S 10 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 31 31 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 SW 9 8379 8379 358 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com