Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 44 44 NE 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 E 5 10393 9731 1710 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 60 63 E 5 12955 11313 3292 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 63 68 E 9 15343 13864 5843 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 65 71 E 9 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 67 73 E 9 18888 16069 8048 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 68 74 SE 14 22308 16447 8426 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 69 73 SE 14 18888 16069 8048 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 69 72 SE 14 17397 15684 7663 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 68 69 SE 14 15774 14335 6314 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 66 66 SE 14 14422 12886 4865 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 62 62 SE 14 12439 10835 2814 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 59 59 S 10 10851 10155 2134 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 56 56 S 10 10165 9519 1498 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 55 55 S 10 9952 8964 943 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 5 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 5 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 5 7587 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 N 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 7587 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 6 9738 8303 282 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 57 58 NE 6 10622 9943 1922 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 61 64 NE 6 13456 11853 3832 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 63 68 E 9 15343 13864 5843 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 65 71 E 9 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 66 72 E 9 17397 15684 7663 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 67 73 E 12 18888 16069 8048 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 68 72 E 12 17397 15684 7663 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 68 71 E 12 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 67 68 SE 10 15343 13864 5843 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 65 65 SE 10 13945 12377 4356 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 61 61 SE 10 11908 10608 2587 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 58 58 SE 10 10622 9943 1922 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 56 56 SE 10 10165 9519 1498 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 55 55 SE 10 9952 8964 943 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 9738 8303 282 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 6 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 8296 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 NW 6 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 NW 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NW 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 6038 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 N 6 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 N 6 10393 9731 1710 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 60 63 N 6 12955 11313 3292 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 64 69 NE 10 15774 14335 6314 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 66 72 NE 10 17397 15684 7663 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 67 73 NE 10 18888 16069 8048 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 68 74 NE 10 22308 16447 8426 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 68 72 NE 10 17397 15684 7663 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 68 71 NE 10 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 67 68 N 12 15343 13864 5843 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 12 13456 11853 3832 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 12 11908 10608 2587 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 12 10393 9731 1710 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 55 55 N 12 9952 8964 943 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 12 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NW 9 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NW 9 7587 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 9 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 9 6038 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NW 9 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 9 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NW 9 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NW 9 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NW 9 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 NW 9 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 NW 9 9738 8303 282 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 58 61 NW 9 11908 10608 2587 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 62 67 NW 6 14888 13381 5360 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 64 70 NW 6 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 65 71 NW 6 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 65 71 NW 6 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 66 70 NW 6 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 66 69 NW 6 15774 14335 6314 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 65 66 NE 3 14422 12886 4865 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 61 61 NE 3 11908 10608 2587 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 57 57 NE 3 10393 9731 1710 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 54 54 NE 3 9738 8303 282 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 53 53 NE 3 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 NE 3 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 N 5 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 N 5 8296 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 N 5 6038 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 E 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 E 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 E 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 7587 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 E 3 9952 8964 943 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 58 61 E 3 11908 10608 2587 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 62 67 S 8 14888 13381 5360 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 64 70 S 8 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 64 70 S 8 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 64 70 S 8 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 65 69 S 8 15774 14335 6314 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 65 68 S 8 15343 13864 5843 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 64 65 S 10 13945 12377 4356 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 61 61 S 10 11908 10608 2587 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 57 57 S 10 10393 9731 1710 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 53 53 S 10 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 S 10 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 S 10 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 SW 6 8296 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SW 6 7587 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 SW 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SW 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SW 6 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 W 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 3 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 W 3 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 W 3 9952 8964 943 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 59 62 W 3 12439 10835 2814 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 63 68 S 7 15343 13864 5843 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 65 71 S 7 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 65 71 S 7 16552 15246 7225 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 65 70 S 7 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 66 70 S 7 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 67 70 S 7 16162 14796 6775 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 66 67 S 9 14888 13381 5360 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 62 62 S 9 12439 10835 2814 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 57 57 S 9 10393 9731 1710 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 54 54 S 9 9738 8303 282 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 53 53 S 9 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 S 9 9525 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 5 9738 8303 282 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 5 8970 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 6837 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 5902 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com