Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 W 5 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 W 5 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 W 5 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 S 7 8680 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 48 S 7 9775 8116 95 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 50 S 7 11067 9226 1205 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 49 50 S 7 11067 9226 1205 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 50 51 S 7 11816 9757 1736 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 50 50 S 7 11067 9226 1205 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 8 10300 8679 658 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 S 8 9236 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 8 7512 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 S 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 S 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 S 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 S 13 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 S 13 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 S 13 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 S 15 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 S 15 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 S 15 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 S 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 S 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 S 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 S 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 S 14 6895 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 46 S 10 8680 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 50 S 10 11067 9226 1205 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 50 51 S 10 11816 9757 1736 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 51 52 S 17 12518 10273 2252 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 50 50 S 17 11067 9226 1205 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 49 49 S 17 10300 8679 658 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 S 24 9236 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 S 24 8106 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 S 24 6895 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 S 24 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 S 24 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 S 24 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 S 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 S 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 S 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 S 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 S 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 SW 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 SW 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 SW 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 SW 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SW 17 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 34 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 33 34 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 32 33 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 31 32 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 30 30 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 29 29 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 28 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 25 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 23 23 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 22 22 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 20 20 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 21 21 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 22 22 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 22 22 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 21 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 19 19 NW 18 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 NW 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 21 21 NW 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 NW 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 NW 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 24 NW 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 20 20 NW 14 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 19 20 NW 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 22 23 NW 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 26 27 NW 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 31 NW 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 30 31 NW 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 29 NW 20 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 NW 21 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 27 27 NW 21 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 NW 21 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 27 27 NW 21 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 NW 21 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 25 25 NW 21 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 25 25 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 25 25 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 32 S 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 34 S 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 35 S 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 35 36 S 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 35 35 S 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 35 35 S 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 34 34 S 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 S 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 S 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 31 S 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 30 30 S 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 S 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 SW 10 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 37 38 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 37 38 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 38 39 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 38 38 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 39 39 W 9 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 39 SW 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 38 38 SW 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 36 SW 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 34 34 SW 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 SW 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 SW 7 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NW 8 6394 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com