Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 31 31 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 31 31 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 29 29 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 28 28 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 28 28 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 28 28 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 28 28 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 29 29 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 30 30 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 30 30 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 30 30 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 29 29 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 28 28 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 27 27 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 26 26 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 26 26 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 25 25 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 25 25 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 25 25 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 25 25 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 25 25 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 25 25 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 25 25 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 25 25 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 25 25 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 25 25 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 26 26 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 27 27 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 29 29 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 31 32 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 32 33 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 34 35 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 34 35 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 35 36 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 35 35 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 34 34 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 33 33 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 33 33 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 32 32 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 31 31 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 30 30 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 30 30 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 30 30 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 31 31 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 36 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 38 39 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 39 40 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 41 43 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 41 42 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 42 43 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 42 42 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 41 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 39 39 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 37 37 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 35 35 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 33 33 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 33 33 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 33 33 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 32 32 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 31 31 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 31 31 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 30 30 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 30 30 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 29 29 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 30 30 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 32 32 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 35 35 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 38 38 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 40 41 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 41 42 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 41 42 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 40 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 39 39 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 39 39 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 37 37 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 34 34 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 30 30 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 28 28 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 29 29 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 31 31 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 29 29 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 26 26 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 24 24 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 24 24 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 25 25 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 26 26 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 26 26 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 24 24 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 24 25 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 26 27 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 29 31 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 31 32 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 30 31 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 29 29 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 27 27 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 27 27 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 27 27 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 27 27 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 26 26 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 24 24 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 22 22 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 23 23 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 24 24 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 25 25 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 24 24 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 23 23 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 22 22 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 22 22 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 23 23 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 24 24 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 26 26 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 28 28 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 30 31 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 32 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 33 35 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 34 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 35 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 29 29 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 27 27 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 26 26 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 26 26 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 26 26 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 27 27 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com