Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 33 33 N 12 8470 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 N 12 8470 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 N 12 8681 8051 30 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 N 12 8891 8262 241 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 37 N 12 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 37 39 N 12 10116 9105 1084 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 39 43 N 12 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 40 44 N 12 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 42 47 N 12 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 43 47 N 12 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 45 48 N 12 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 46 48 N 12 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 46 47 N 13 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 45 45 N 13 11380 10769 2748 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 43 43 N 13 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 41 41 N 10 10562 9644 1623 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 40 40 N 10 10340 9328 1307 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 10 9661 8889 868 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 10 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NW 10 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 NW 10 8891 8262 241 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 8681 8051 30 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 8681 8051 30 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 8681 8051 30 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 N 10 8681 8051 30 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 N 10 8891 8262 241 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 10 8891 8262 241 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NW 10 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 39 NW 10 10116 9105 1084 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 41 44 NW 10 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 43 47 N 12 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 45 50 N 12 12346 11758 3737 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 46 51 N 12 12940 11956 3935 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 48 53 N 13 14165 12324 4303 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 50 54 N 13 14803 12851 4830 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 52 54 N 13 14803 12851 4830 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 52 53 N 10 14165 12324 4303 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 50 50 N 10 12346 11758 3737 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 10 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 44 44 N 10 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 10 10784 10106 2085 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 10 10562 9644 1623 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 40 40 NW 9 10340 9328 1307 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NW 9 10116 9105 1084 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 38 38 NW 9 9661 8889 868 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 37 37 NW 9 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 36 36 NW 9 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NW 9 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 9661 8889 868 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 39 39 N 9 10116 9105 1084 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 36 37 N 9 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 34 37 N 9 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 32 36 N 8 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 31 36 N 8 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 30 35 N 8 8891 8262 241 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 29 34 N 8 8681 8051 30 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 27 30 N 8 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 26 28 N 8 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 28 29 N 10 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 N 10 8470 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 N 10 11380 10769 2748 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 55 55 N 10 15412 13461 5440 Blue 19
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 10 15960 14048 6027 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 10 13556 12142 4121 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 44 44 NW 8 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 8 10116 9105 1084 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 37 37 NW 8 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 36 36 NW 8 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 NW 8 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 NW 8 9108 8471 450 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 N 10 9333 8681 660 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 10 9661 8889 868 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 10 10340 9328 1307 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 41 41 N 10 10562 9644 1623 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 43 44 N 10 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 45 48 N 10 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 47 51 N 7 12940 11956 3935 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 50 55 N 7 15412 13461 5440 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 53 58 N 7 16876 15280 7259 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 56 61 N 7 17402 16827 8806 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 58 62 N 7 17577 17002 8981 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 58 60 N 7 17227 16585 8564 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 57 58 N 9 16876 15280 7259 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 54 54 N 9 14803 12851 4830 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 12940 11956 3935 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 9 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 45 45 N 9 11380 10769 2748 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 44 44 N 9 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 N 6 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 42 42 N 6 10784 10106 2085 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 10562 9644 1623 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 41 41 N 7 10562 9644 1623 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 10784 10106 2085 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 7 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 11579 10969 2948 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 48 49 N 7 12162 11561 3540 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 50 53 N 7 14165 12324 4303 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 52 56 NE 5 15960 14048 6027 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 55 60 NE 5 17227 16585 8564 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 57 62 NE 5 17577 17002 8981 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 60 65 NE 5 18366 17524 9503 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 62 66 NE 5 18642 17711 9690 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 62 64 NE 5 18084 17350 9329 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 61 62 E 8 17577 17002 8981 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 58 58 E 8 16876 15280 7259 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 54 54 E 8 14803 12851 4830 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 51 51 E 8 12940 11956 3935 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 49 49 E 8 12162 11561 3540 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 48 48 E 8 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 47 47 SE 5 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 SE 5 11579 10969 2948 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 45 45 SE 5 11380 10769 2748 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 44 44 SE 5 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 43 43 SE 5 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 43 43 SE 5 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 10982 10328 2307 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 44 44 NE 5 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 5 11579 10969 2948 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 50 51 NE 5 12940 11956 3935 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 53 56 NE 5 15960 14048 6027 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 55 59 E 6 17052 15833 7812 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 58 63 E 6 17799 17176 9155 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 60 65 E 6 18366 17524 9503 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 62 67 E 6 19677 17993 9972 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 63 67 E 6 19677 17993 9972 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 64 66 E 6 18642 17711 9690 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 63 64 SE 8 18084 17350 9329 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 60 60 SE 8 17227 16585 8564 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 56 56 SE 8 15960 14048 6027 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 52 52 SE 8 13556 12142 4121 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 50 50 SE 8 12346 11758 3737 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 49 49 SE 8 12162 11561 3540 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 48 48 S 6 11977 11363 3342 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 S 6 11778 11164 3143 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 46 46 S 6 11579 10969 2948 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 45 45 S 6 11380 10769 2748 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 6 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 6 11180 10549 2528 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com