Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.519075, -118.294555, 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 E 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 8 12 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 8 12 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 8 12 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 ESE 6 11 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 ESE 6 11 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 ESE 6 11 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 51 SW 6 11 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 54 SW 6 11 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 55 60 SW 6 11 14131 12690 4669 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 58 65 SSW 11 18 16204 14804 6783 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 60 68 SSW 11 18 19470 16066 8045 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 63 71 SSW 11 18 23800 19314 11293 White 18
2 PM Wed 64 71 SW 12 19 23800 19314 11293 White 18
3 PM Wed 65 70 SW 12 19 20861 18453 10432 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 65 69 SW 12 19 20184 16611 8590 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 64 66 WSW 11 18 16755 15166 7145 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 11 18 15632 14437 6416 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 11 18 14507 13502 5481 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 57 57 N 9 13 12796 10054 2033 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 56 56 N 9 13 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 54 54 N 9 13 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 54 54 ENE 9 14 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 ENE 9 14 9315 8338 317 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 9 14 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 E 8 12 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 E 8 12 8336 8166 145 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 E 8 12 8336 8166 145 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 8 13 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 8 13 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 8 13 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 SW 5 9 12796 10054 2033 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 57 60 SW 5 9 14131 12690 4669 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 58 63 SW 5 9 15243 14065 6044 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 61 67 SW 9 14 19034 15523 7502 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 63 70 SW 9 14 20861 18453 10432 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 64 71 SW 9 14 23800 19314 11293 White 18
2 PM Thu 65 71 SW 12 19 23800 19314 11293 White 18
3 PM Thu 66 71 SW 12 19 23800 19314 11293 White 18
4 PM Thu 66 69 SW 12 19 20184 16611 8590 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 65 66 WSW 10 17 16755 15166 7145 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 10 17 15243 14065 6044 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 10 17 14507 13502 5481 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 10 16 13544 10950 2929 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 16 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 54 54 NW 10 16 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 10 16 9315 8338 317 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 WNW 10 16 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 10 16 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NW 9 14 8336 8166 145 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 13 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NW 9 13 8336 8166 145 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NW 9 13 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 56 WNW 5 9 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 58 61 WNW 5 9 14507 13502 5481 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 60 65 WNW 5 9 16204 14804 6783 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 62 69 SSW 10 16 20184 16611 8590 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 63 71 SSW 10 16 23800 19314 11293 White 18
1 PM Fri 64 72 SSW 10 16 23999 19912 11891 White 19
2 PM Fri 65 71 SW 13 21 23800 19314 11293 White 18
3 PM Fri 65 70 SW 13 21 20861 18453 10432 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 65 68 SW 13 21 19470 16066 8045 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 64 65 WSW 16 25 16204 14804 6783 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 16 25 14878 13771 5750 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 16 25 13816 11859 3838 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 19 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 12 19 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 19 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 WNW 11 18 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 WNW 11 18 8336 8166 145 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 11 18 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 WNW 9 14 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 54 WNW 9 14 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 54 57 WNW 9 14 12796 10054 2033 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 55 57 W 12 20 12796 10054 2033 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 56 59 W 12 20 13816 11859 3838 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 57 60 W 12 20 14131 12690 4669 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 57 59 WSW 13 21 13816 11859 3838 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 56 58 WSW 13 21 13544 10950 2929 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 55 56 WSW 13 21 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 14 23 9315 8338 317 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 14 23 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 14 23 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 12 19 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 WNW 12 19 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 12 19 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 11 18 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 WNW 11 18 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 11 18 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 10 17 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 10 17 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 10 17 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 12 20 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 12 20 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 WNW 12 20 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 47 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 49 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 51 NW 9 14 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 51 N 13 21 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 54 N 13 21 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 53 56 N 13 21 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 54 57 N 12 20 12796 10054 2033 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 54 56 N 12 20 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 54 55 N 12 20 11021 8711 690 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 53 54 NW 11 18 10082 8525 504 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 52 52 NW 11 18 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 11 18 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 10 16 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 14 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NW 8 12 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 12 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NW 8 12 8166 8166 145 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 51 NW 6 11 8524 8166 145 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 55 NW 6 11 11021 8711 690 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 54 58 NW 6 11 13544 10950 2929 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 56 62 NW 10 16 14878 13771 5750 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 58 64 NW 10 16 15632 14437 6416 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 59 66 NW 10 16 16755 15166 7145 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 60 65 W 12 20 16204 14804 6783 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 60 64 W 12 20 15632 14437 6416 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 59 61 W 12 20 14507 13502 5481 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 58 59 W 12 20 13816 11859 3838 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 12 20 11950 9276 1255 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 12 20 11021 8711 690 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 10 16 9315 8338 317 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 10 16 8712 8166 145 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 10 16 8524 8166 145 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com