Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 35 35 S 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 S 9 8667 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 S 9 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 S 12 8855 8570 549 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 39 S 16 9420 8570 549 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 38 39 S 16 9420 8570 549 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 37 38 S 16 8855 8570 549 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 37 38 S 17 8855 8570 549 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 36 36 S 17 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 35 35 S 17 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 31 31 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 30 30 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 33 W 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 35 37 W 12 8667 8570 549 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 41 W 16 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 41 44 W 16 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 43 46 W 16 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 45 48 NW 16 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 46 48 NW 16 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 46 47 NW 16 13504 12238 4217 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 14 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 14 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 40 40 NW 14 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 39 39 NW 14 9420 8570 549 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 39 39 NW 14 9420 8570 549 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 39 39 NW 12 9420 8570 549 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 12 9420 8570 549 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 38 38 NW 12 8855 8570 549 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 NW 12 8855 8570 549 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 NW 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NW 12 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 NW 13 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NW 13 8570 8570 549 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NW 13 8855 8570 549 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 41 NW 13 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 41 43 NW 13 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 43 46 NW 13 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 44 48 NW 18 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 46 51 NW 18 15176 13837 5816 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 48 53 NW 18 15982 14679 6658 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 50 55 NW 18 16761 15490 7469 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 51 55 NW 18 16761 15490 7469 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 51 53 NW 18 15982 14679 6658 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 50 51 NW 16 15176 13837 5816 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 48 48 NW 16 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 47 47 NW 16 13504 12238 4217 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 45 45 NW 16 12699 11086 3065 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 44 44 NW 16 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 43 43 NW 16 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 43 43 NW 12 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NW 12 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 42 42 NW 12 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 41 41 NW 12 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 40 40 NW 12 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 12 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 40 40 NW 8 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 41 41 NW 8 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 8 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 43 44 NW 8 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 45 48 NW 8 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 46 50 NW 8 14763 13441 5420 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 48 52 N 13 15583 14262 6241 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 49 54 N 13 16374 15088 7067 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 51 56 N 13 17141 15885 7864 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 52 57 N 13 17516 16274 8253 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 52 56 N 13 17141 15885 7864 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 51 53 N 13 15982 14679 6658 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 50 51 SW 13 15176 13837 5816 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 49 49 SW 13 14342 13047 5026 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 47 47 SW 13 13504 12238 4217 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 13 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 45 45 SW 13 12699 11086 3065 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 45 45 SW 13 12699 11086 3065 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 9 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 9 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 42 42 W 9 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 41 41 W 9 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 9 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 40 40 W 9 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 40 40 W 6 10018 8667 646 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 41 41 W 6 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 42 42 W 6 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 44 45 W 6 12699 11086 3065 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 46 48 W 6 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 48 52 W 6 15583 14262 6241 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 50 55 S 14 16761 15490 7469 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 52 58 S 14 17885 16656 8635 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 53 59 S 14 18250 17033 9012 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 54 59 S 14 18250 17033 9012 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 54 58 S 14 17885 16656 8635 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 54 57 S 14 17516 16274 8253 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 53 54 S 14 16374 15088 7067 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 51 51 S 14 15176 13837 5816 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 50 50 S 14 14763 13441 5420 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 48 48 S 14 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 47 47 S 14 13504 12238 4217 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 46 46 S 14 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 10 12699 11086 3065 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 10 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 10 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 42 42 W 10 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 41 41 NW 6 10395 8854 833 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 6 11164 9406 1385 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 6 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 45 46 NW 6 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 47 49 NW 6 14342 13047 5026 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 48 52 NW 6 15583 14262 6241 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 50 55 E 13 16761 15490 7469 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 52 58 E 13 17885 16656 8635 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 53 59 E 13 18250 17033 9012 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 54 60 E 13 18650 17405 9384 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 55 60 E 13 18650 17405 9384 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 55 58 E 13 17885 16656 8635 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 54 55 S 14 16761 15490 7469 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 53 53 S 14 15982 14679 6658 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 51 51 S 14 15176 13837 5816 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 49 49 S 14 14342 13047 5026 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 48 48 S 14 13912 12646 4625 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 47 47 S 14 13504 12238 4217 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 47 47 W 10 13504 12238 4217 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 10 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 10 13105 11824 3803 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 10 12699 11086 3065 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 12287 10380 2359 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 10 11867 9990 1969 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com