Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 32 32 NW 9 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 NW 9 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 S 5 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 50 S 5 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 49 51 S 5 11212 9528 1507 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 50 51 SE 5 11212 9528 1507 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 51 52 SE 5 11483 10186 2165 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 51 51 SE 5 11212 9528 1507 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 9547 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 SW 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 SW 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 SW 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 9 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 W 9 8842 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 NW 8 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 52 53 NW 8 11752 10920 2899 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 53 54 NW 8 12139 11190 3169 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 54 55 W 8 12953 11458 3437 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 12139 11190 3169 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 12139 11190 3169 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 11752 10920 2899 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 8842 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 8 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 W 8 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 SW 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SW 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 SW 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 SW 7 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 54 55 SE 6 12953 11458 3437 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 56 57 SE 6 14416 12046 4025 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 57 58 SE 6 15083 12846 4825 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 58 59 SE 6 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 59 60 SE 6 16321 14288 6267 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 59 59 SE 6 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 58 58 S 3 15083 12846 4825 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 55 55 S 3 12953 11458 3437 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 52 52 S 3 11483 10186 2165 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 49 49 S 3 10218 8109 88 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 S 3 8842 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 S 3 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NW 2 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NW 2 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NW 2 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NW 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 3 9547 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 N 3 11483 10186 2165 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 54 55 SE 5 12953 11458 3437 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 56 58 SE 5 15083 12846 4825 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 59 61 SE 5 16901 14947 6926 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 60 62 SE 5 17459 15573 7552 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 60 61 SE 5 16901 14947 6926 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 59 59 SE 5 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 57 57 SE 3 14416 12046 4025 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 55 55 SE 3 12953 11458 3437 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 52 52 SE 3 11483 10186 2165 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 49 49 SE 3 10218 8109 88 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 SE 3 8842 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 SE 3 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 S 2 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 S 2 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 2 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 S 2 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 S 2 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 SE 3 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 SE 3 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 9547 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 11483 10186 2165 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 56 57 S 3 14416 12046 4025 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 59 61 S 3 16901 14947 6926 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 61 63 S 3 17997 16172 8151 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 62 63 S 3 17997 16172 8151 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 62 63 S 3 17997 16172 8151 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 61 61 S 3 16901 14947 6926 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 59 59 S 3 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 56 56 S 3 13709 11725 3704 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 53 53 S 3 11752 10920 2899 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 50 50 S 3 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 48 48 S 3 9547 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 S 3 8842 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 SW 5 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 5 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 5 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 SW 5 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 5 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SW 5 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 W 7 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 7 8842 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 W 7 10940 8838 817 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 53 54 SW 6 12139 11190 3169 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 55 56 SW 6 13709 11725 3704 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 57 59 SW 6 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 58 59 SW 6 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 58 59 SW 6 15716 13590 5569 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 57 57 SW 6 14416 12046 4025 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 55 55 SW 6 12953 11458 3437 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 52 52 SW 6 11483 10186 2165 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 49 49 SW 6 10218 8109 88 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 8096 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SW 6 7300 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 6 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 7073 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com