Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 35 35 W 13 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 W 13 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 W 13 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 W 9 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 35 W 9 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 39 W 9 9865 9587 1566 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 39 42 S 20 10678 9862 1841 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 41 45 S 20 12393 10666 2645 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 43 47 S 20 13004 11712 3691 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 44 48 SW 20 13305 12330 4309 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 44 47 SW 20 13004 11712 3691 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 44 46 SW 20 12700 11065 3044 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 44 45 SW 16 12393 10666 2645 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 43 43 SW 16 11118 10167 2146 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 41 41 SW 16 10453 9780 1759 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 39 39 SW 14 9865 9587 1566 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 38 38 SW 14 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 37 37 SW 14 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 36 36 SW 13 9590 8021 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 SW 13 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 SW 13 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 SW 14 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 SW 14 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 SW 14 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 S 15 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 S 15 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 S 15 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 S 15 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 S 15 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 38 S 15 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 38 39 SW 22 9865 9587 1566 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 39 40 SW 22 10180 9685 1664 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 40 41 SW 22 10453 9780 1759 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 40 41 SW 25 10453 9780 1759 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 40 40 SW 25 10180 9685 1664 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 39 39 SW 25 9865 9587 1566 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 38 38 SW 25 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 37 37 SW 25 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 35 35 SW 25 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 SW 25 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 SW 25 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 SW 25 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 SW 17 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 SW 17 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 SW 17 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 SW 17 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 SW 17 5456 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 SW 17 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 W 15 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 W 15 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 W 15 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 W 15 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 28 W 15 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 31 W 15 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 34 W 18 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 32 36 W 18 9590 8021 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 33 37 W 18 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 33 37 W 18 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 33 36 W 18 9590 8021 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 33 35 W 18 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 34 NW 18 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 NW 18 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 NW 18 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 NW 18 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 NW 18 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 NW 18 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 NW 9 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 NW 9 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 NW 9 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 NW 9 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 23 23 NW 9 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 22 22 NW 9 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 21 NW 10 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 21 21 NW 10 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 NW 10 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 NW 10 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 27 NW 10 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 28 31 NW 10 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 30 34 N 13 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 38 N 13 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 37 42 N 13 10678 9862 1841 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 39 44 N 13 11776 10438 2417 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 40 44 N 13 11776 10438 2417 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 40 42 N 13 10678 9862 1841 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 39 40 NW 12 10180 9685 1664 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 37 37 NW 12 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 36 36 NW 12 9590 8021 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 35 35 NW 12 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 NW 12 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 NW 12 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 N 15 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 N 15 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 N 15 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 N 15 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 N 15 5456 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 N 15 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 N 13 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 N 13 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 N 13 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 N 13 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 32 N 13 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 35 N 13 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 34 37 N 9 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 37 41 N 9 10453 9780 1759 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 39 43 N 9 11118 10167 2146 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 40 44 N 9 11776 10438 2417 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 41 44 N 9 11776 10438 2417 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 40 42 N 9 10678 9862 1841 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 40 41 N 12 10453 9780 1759 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 39 39 N 12 9865 9587 1566 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 38 38 N 12 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 36 36 N 12 9590 8021 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 35 35 N 12 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 N 12 7999 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 32 NW 8 7401 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 NW 8 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 NW 8 6134 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 NW 8 5456 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 NW 8 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 NW 8 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 NW 8 5289 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 NW 8 5456 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 NW 8 6781 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 35 NW 8 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 38 NW 8 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 39 43 W 9 11118 10167 2146 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 41 46 W 9 12700 11065 3044 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 43 48 W 9 13305 12330 4309 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 44 49 W 9 13604 12659 4638 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 45 49 W 9 13604 12659 4638 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 45 47 W 9 13004 11712 3691 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 44 44 W 8 11776 10438 2417 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 43 43 W 8 11118 10167 2146 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 42 42 W 8 10678 9862 1841 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 8 10453 9780 1759 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 40 40 W 8 10180 9685 1664 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 39 39 W 8 9865 9587 1566 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 38 38 W 10 9783 9125 1104 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 10 9689 8577 556 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 10 9590 8021 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 35 35 W 10 9133 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 W 10 8575 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 W 10 7999 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com