Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.394, -119.370, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

3 DEC 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SE 3 4 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 ENE 3 4 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 E 4 5 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 E 4 5 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 E 4 5 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SE 4 6 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SE 4 6 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 SE 4 6 10206 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 S 3 5 12450 11242 1742 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 43 44 S 3 5 12971 11477 1977 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 44 46 S 3 5 13384 12400 2900 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 45 47 NW 4 6 13522 12914 3414 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 45 46 NW 4 6 13384 12400 2900 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 44 44 NW 4 6 12971 11477 1977 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 39 39 N 4 6 11016 9500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 34 34 N 4 6 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 N 4 6 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 35 35 N 3 5 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 N 3 5 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 N 3 5 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NW 5 9 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 NW 5 9 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 NW 5 9 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 NNW 5 9 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NNW 5 9 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NNW 5 9 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NNW 8 11 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NNW 8 11 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NNW 8 11 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 N 6 10 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 10 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 N 6 10 11254 9500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 41 42 NW 6 10 11912 11005 1505 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 43 45 NW 6 10 13246 11871 2371 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 44 46 NW 6 10 13384 12400 2900 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 44 46 NNW 10 16 13384 12400 2900 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 43 44 NNW 10 16 12971 11477 1977 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 10 16 11492 10189 689 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 10 14 10206 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 10 14 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 NNW 10 14 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 WNW 12 18 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 WNW 12 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 WNW 12 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 WSW 11 17 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 WSW 11 17 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 WSW 11 17 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 WSW 16 24 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 WSW 16 24 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 16 24 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 W 18 27 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 W 18 27 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 W 18 27 9316 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 NW 17 26 11492 10189 689 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 42 43 NW 17 26 12450 11242 1742 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 44 46 NW 17 26 13384 12400 2900 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 44 45 NNW 16 25 13246 11871 2371 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 43 44 NNW 16 25 12971 11477 1977 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 16 25 11492 10189 689 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 39 39 NNW 13 20 11016 9500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 37 37 NNW 13 20 9316 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 NNW 13 20 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 W 14 21 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 W 14 21 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 14 21 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 W 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 12 19 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 13 20 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 13 20 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 13 20 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 21 33 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 WSW 21 33 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 WSW 21 33 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 21 33 9316 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 W 21 33 10206 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 W 21 33 11254 9500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 41 41 W 26 40 11492 10189 689 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 41 42 W 26 40 11912 11005 1505 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 41 42 W 26 40 11912 11005 1505 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 40 40 W 28 43 11254 9500 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 38 38 W 28 43 10206 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 36 36 W 28 43 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 34 34 W 34 51 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 32 32 W 34 51 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 30 30 W 34 51 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 29 29 W 34 51 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 28 28 W 34 51 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 28 W 34 51 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 W 27 41 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 28 W 27 41 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 W 27 41 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 W 29 44 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 W 29 44 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 W 29 44 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 22 22 WSW 24 36 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 22 22 WSW 24 36 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 WSW 24 36 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 WSW 24 36 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 WSW 24 36 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 26 WSW 24 36 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 28 29 WSW 18 27 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 30 31 WSW 18 27 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 31 32 WSW 18 27 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 32 33 W 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 33 34 W 19 29 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 33 33 W 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 30 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 29 WSW 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 WSW 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 30 30 WSW 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 WSW 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 WSW 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 WSW 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 WSW 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 WSW 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 12 19 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 14 23 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 14 23 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 14 23 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 14 23 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 WSW 14 23 5929 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 WSW 14 23 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 39 WSW 19 29 11016 9500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 39 40 WSW 19 29 11254 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 39 40 WSW 19 29 11254 9500 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 39 40 W 20 31 11254 9500 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 38 38 W 20 31 10206 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 37 37 W 20 31 9316 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 36 36 WSW 20 31 8336 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 20 31 7231 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 33 33 WSW 20 31 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 WSW 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 WSW 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 WSW 19 29 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 SW 21 33 5000 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com