Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 SW 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 SW 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 SW 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 SW 9 8406 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 55 SW 9 11174 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 54 56 SW 9 11792 9849 349 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 55 57 W 10 12385 10508 1008 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 55 56 W 10 11792 9849 349 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 54 54 W 10 10528 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 SW 9 9150 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 SW 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 SW 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 SW 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 SW 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 SW 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 SW 17 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 SW 17 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SW 17 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 SW 22 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 SW 28 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 SW 28 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 SW 28 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 SW 28 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 SW 28 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 35 SW 28 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 38 SW 25 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 39 40 SW 25 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 40 41 SW 25 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 39 39 SW 25 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 38 SW 25 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 37 37 SW 25 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 36 36 W 12 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 34 34 W 12 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 32 32 W 12 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 31 31 W 12 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 W 12 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 W 12 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 24 24 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 25 25 N 20 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 25 25 N 23 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 22 22 N 23 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 22 22 N 23 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 22 22 N 23 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 22 22 N 23 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 21 21 N 23 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 21 21 N 18 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 21 21 N 18 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 20 20 N 18 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 19 19 N 18 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 18 18 N 18 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 17 17 N 18 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 17 17 N 21 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 16 16 N 21 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 16 16 N 21 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 16 16 N 21 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 16 16 N 21 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 16 16 N 21 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 16 16 N 15 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 16 16 N 15 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 17 17 N 15 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 18 N 15 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 19 19 N 15 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 21 21 N 15 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 23 23 NE 14 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 24 25 NE 14 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 25 26 NE 14 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 26 26 NE 14 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 27 27 NE 14 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 28 28 NE 14 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 28 28 N 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 25 25 N 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 N 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 20 20 N 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 20 20 N 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 20 20 N 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 20 20 S 6 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 19 19 S 6 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 18 18 S 6 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 S 6 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 19 19 S 6 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 S 6 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 19 19 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 17 17 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 18 18 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 29 30 SE 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 29 31 SE 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 28 30 SE 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 27 29 SE 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 28 29 SE 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 30 SE 9 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 29 29 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 27 27 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 23 23 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 20 20 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 21 21 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 23 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 18 18 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 19 19 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 21 21 SE 8 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 S 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 S 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 18 18 S 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 18 S 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 23 23 S 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 S 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 35 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 33 35 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 31 33 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 29 31 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 31 32 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 34 34 SW 7 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 34 34 NE 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 30 30 NE 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 24 24 NE 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 20 20 NE 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 20 20 NE 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 NE 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 S 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 23 23 S 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 21 21 S 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 19 19 S 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 S 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 S 5 7579 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com