Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 33 33 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 SE 8 7571 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 SE 5 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 47 SE 5 11011 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 47 48 SE 5 11600 9628 128 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 47 48 NE 7 11600 9628 128 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 46 46 NE 7 9961 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 NE 7 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 NE 5 8615 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 39 39 NE 5 7571 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 36 36 NE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 33 33 SE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 SE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 SE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 W 6 7571 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 44 N 7 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 47 N 7 11011 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 47 49 N 7 12168 9957 457 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 48 50 NE 8 12717 10984 1484 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 48 49 NE 8 12168 9957 457 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 47 47 NE 8 11011 9500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 44 44 NE 6 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 NE 6 8270 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 S 3 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 S 3 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 S 3 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 S 3 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 S 3 6857 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 S 3 7922 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 E 6 8956 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 47 E 6 11011 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 47 49 E 6 12168 9957 457 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 48 49 E 6 12168 9957 457 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 48 49 E 6 12168 9957 457 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 46 46 E 6 9961 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 NE 7 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 41 NE 7 8270 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 NE 7 7216 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 SW 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 W 6 6857 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 41 SW 6 8270 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 43 SW 6 8956 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 44 SW 6 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 44 SW 6 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 43 SW 6 8956 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 SW 6 8270 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 39 39 N 6 7571 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 35 35 N 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 31 N 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 28 28 N 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 N 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 28 28 N 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 28 28 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 27 27 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 S 5 7922 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 42 S 5 8615 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 45 S 5 9629 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 S 5 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 S 5 9294 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 S 5 8615 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 NE 7 7922 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 NE 7 6857 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 28 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 NE 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 36 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 38 SE 8 7216 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 39 SE 8 7571 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 39 40 SE 8 7922 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 39 40 SE 8 7922 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 39 39 SE 8 7571 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 38 E 7 7216 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 E 7 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com