Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 SW 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 SW 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SW 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 SW 6 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 66 SW 6 15695 14157 4657 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 65 67 NE 6 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 66 68 NE 6 17047 15156 5656 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 65 67 NE 6 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 65 67 E 6 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 64 66 E 6 15695 14157 4657 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 63 64 E 6 14747 13100 3600 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 8 12600 10696 1196 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 8 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 9840 9560 60 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 N 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 NE 6 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 62 65 NE 6 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 65 67 E 8 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 67 69 E 8 17724 15607 6107 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 69 72 E 8 19786 17552 8052 White 15
2 PM Mon 69 71 E 8 19578 16878 7378 White 14
3 PM Mon 67 69 E 8 17724 15607 6107 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 66 67 E 8 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 64 65 W 13 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 14747 13100 3600 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 14747 13100 3600 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 14747 13100 3600 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 13 14234 12546 3046 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 13 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 12600 10696 1196 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 6 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 9840 9560 60 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 9840 9560 60 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 E 7 9840 9560 60 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 7 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 60 60 E 7 12600 10696 1196 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 65 67 E 7 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 67 70 E 7 18192 16048 6548 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 69 73 SW 7 19994 18062 8562 White 16
12 Noon Tue 70 74 SW 7 20201 18514 9014 White 17
1 PM Tue 70 75 SW 7 20408 20408 10908 White 18
2 PM Tue 70 74 SW 7 20201 18514 9014 White 17
3 PM Tue 69 73 SW 7 19994 18062 8562 White 16
4 PM Tue 68 71 SW 7 19578 16878 7378 White 14
5 PM Tue 66 68 W 10 17047 15156 5656 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 66 67 W 10 16324 14664 5164 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 10 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 10 14747 13100 3600 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 10 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 12600 10696 1196 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 58 58 SE 5 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SE 5 9840 9560 60 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SE 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SE 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SE 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SE 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 3 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 SE 3 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 63 65 SE 3 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 67 71 SE 3 19578 16878 7378 White 14
11 AM Wed 69 73 SW 8 19994 18062 8562 White 16
12 Noon Wed 70 75 SW 8 20408 20408 10908 White 18
1 PM Wed 71 77 SW 8 20821 20821 11321 White 20
2 PM Wed 71 77 SW 8 20821 20821 11321 White 20
3 PM Wed 71 76 SW 8 20614 20614 11114 White 19
4 PM Wed 71 74 SW 8 20201 18514 9014 White 17
5 PM Wed 70 72 W 12 19786 17552 8052 White 15
6 PM Wed 68 69 W 12 17724 15607 6107 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 12 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 12 12600 10696 1196 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 12 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 5 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 SW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 5 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 S 3 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 S 3 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 64 66 S 3 15695 14157 4657 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 68 72 S 3 19786 17552 8052 White 15
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 14 20614 20614 11114 White 19
12 Noon Thu 73 79 W 14 21229 21229 11729 White 22
1 PM Thu 74 80 W 14 21433 21433 11933 White 23
2 PM Thu 74 80 W 14 21433 21433 11933 White 23
3 PM Thu 74 79 W 14 21229 21229 11729 White 22
4 PM Thu 73 77 W 14 20821 20821 11321 White 20
5 PM Thu 72 74 W 20 20201 18514 9014 White 17
6 PM Thu 69 70 W 20 18192 16048 6548 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 20 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 20 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 20 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 20 12017 9832 332 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 58 58 SW 7 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 SW 7 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 7 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 7 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 7 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 S 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 S 3 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 S 3 10721 9560 60 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 S 3 13162 11376 1876 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 63 65 S 3 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 66 70 S 3 18192 16048 6548 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 69 75 SW 12 20408 20408 10908 White 18
12 Noon Fri 71 78 SW 12 21025 21025 11525 White 21
1 PM Fri 72 80 SW 12 21433 21433 11933 White 23
2 PM Fri 72 79 SW 12 21229 21229 11729 White 22
3 PM Fri 73 79 SW 12 21229 21229 11729 White 22
4 PM Fri 72 76 SW 12 20614 20614 11114 White 19
5 PM Fri 71 74 W 16 20201 18514 9014 White 17
6 PM Fri 68 69 W 16 17724 15607 6107 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 16 15239 13636 4136 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 16 13706 11972 2472 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 60 60 W 16 12600 10696 1196 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 16 12017 9832 332 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 58 58 SE 6 11411 9560 60 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SE 6 9840 9560 60 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 SE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 SE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 9560 9560 60 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com