Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 56 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 61 SW 14 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 60 65 SW 14 12447 11489 1989 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 61 67 SW 17 13650 11858 2358 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 63 71 SW 17 15525 14122 4622 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 64 72 SW 17 15766 14572 5072 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 65 73 SW 18 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 65 72 SW 18 15766 14572 5072 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 64 69 SW 18 14644 12995 3495 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 63 66 W 18 13060 11673 2173 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 61 62 W 18 11500 9511 11 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 18 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 S 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 S 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 55 S 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 61 S 7 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 61 65 S 7 12447 11489 1989 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 63 69 SW 12 14644 12995 3495 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 66 73 SW 12 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 68 76 SW 12 16345 15881 6381 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 69 77 W 16 16490 16025 6525 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 69 75 W 16 16200 15737 6237 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 69 74 W 16 16056 15444 5944 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 68 70 W 14 15089 13576 4076 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 66 67 W 14 13650 11858 2358 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 14 11686 10835 1335 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 61 61 W 14 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 14 9509 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 61 SW 9 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 62 66 SW 9 13060 11673 2173 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 65 70 W 14 15089 13576 4076 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 67 73 W 14 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 68 75 W 14 16200 15737 6237 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 69 75 W 14 16200 15737 6237 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 69 74 W 14 16056 15444 5944 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 68 72 W 14 15766 14572 5072 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 67 69 W 12 14644 12995 3495 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 65 66 W 12 13060 11673 2173 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 12 11500 9511 11 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 10888 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 12 9509 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 57 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 62 SW 8 11500 9511 11 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 63 67 SW 8 13650 11858 2358 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 65 70 S 12 15089 13576 4076 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 66 72 S 12 15766 14572 5072 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 67 73 S 12 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 68 74 S 12 16056 15444 5944 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 69 74 S 12 16056 15444 5944 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 70 74 S 12 16056 15444 5944 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 69 71 W 10 15525 14122 4622 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 66 67 W 10 13650 11858 2358 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 10 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NE 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NE 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 54 NE 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 60 NE 8 10888 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 65 NE 8 12447 11489 1989 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 63 68 NE 12 14189 12391 2891 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 64 70 NE 12 15089 13576 4076 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 64 70 NE 12 15089 13576 4076 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 65 71 NE 12 15525 14122 4622 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 66 71 NE 12 15525 14122 4622 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 67 71 NE 12 15525 14122 4622 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 67 69 N 10 14644 12995 3495 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 64 65 N 10 12447 11489 1989 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 10 10888 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 N 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 N 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 N 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 N 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 61 N 10 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 63 68 N 10 14189 12391 2891 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 65 70 E 10 15089 13576 4076 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 66 72 E 10 15766 14572 5072 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 66 72 E 10 15766 14572 5072 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 67 73 E 10 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 68 73 E 10 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 69 73 E 10 15911 15012 5512 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 69 71 W 9 15525 14122 4622 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 66 67 W 9 13650 11858 2358 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 11314 9500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com