Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 30 30 S 24 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 S 24 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 S 24 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 S 20 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 S 20 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 32 S 20 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 31 31 SW 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 31 31 SW 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 30 30 SW 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 29 29 SW 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 28 28 SW 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 27 27 W 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 27 27 W 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 26 26 W 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 W 18 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 W 18 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 25 25 W 18 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 W 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 W 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 NW 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 27 27 NW 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 NW 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 N 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 N 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 N 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 NW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 NW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 34 NW 17 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 35 37 NW 17 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 37 39 NW 17 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 38 41 NW 17 13039 11749 2249 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 38 40 NW 17 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 38 40 NW 17 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 37 38 NW 17 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 36 37 NW 17 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 35 35 NW 17 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 NW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 NW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 NW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 NW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 N 14 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 N 14 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 14 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 N 14 10328 9500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 37 38 N 14 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 37 39 N 14 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 38 42 N 17 13445 12171 2671 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 40 44 N 17 14290 12993 3493 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 41 45 N 17 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 42 46 N 17 15139 13792 4292 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 42 45 N 17 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 42 44 N 17 14290 12993 3493 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 41 42 N 15 13445 12171 2671 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 40 40 N 15 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 39 39 N 15 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 38 38 N 15 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 37 37 N 15 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 36 36 N 15 10328 9500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 16 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 N 16 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 N 16 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 N 16 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 N 16 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 N 16 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 NE 8 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NE 8 10328 9500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 39 40 NE 8 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 41 43 NE 8 13853 12586 3086 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 42 45 NE 8 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 44 47 NE 10 15552 14223 4723 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 45 48 NE 10 15957 14647 5147 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 45 48 NE 10 15957 14647 5147 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 45 48 NE 10 15957 14647 5147 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 44 47 NE 10 15552 14223 4723 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 43 45 NE 10 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 41 41 W 14 13039 11749 2249 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 40 40 W 14 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 14 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 39 39 W 14 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 38 38 W 14 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 14 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 36 36 W 7 10328 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 W 7 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 W 7 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 W 7 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 W 7 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 W 7 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 SW 7 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 SW 7 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SW 7 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 40 41 SW 7 13039 11749 2249 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 42 44 SW 7 14290 12993 3493 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 44 47 SW 7 15552 14223 4723 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 45 49 SW 10 16356 15062 5562 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 46 51 SW 10 17134 15872 6372 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 47 52 SW 10 17514 16266 6766 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 47 51 SW 10 17134 15872 6372 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 46 50 SW 10 16748 15470 5970 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 45 47 SW 10 15552 14223 4723 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 44 45 W 16 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 42 42 W 16 13445 12171 2671 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 41 41 W 16 13039 11749 2249 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 40 40 W 16 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 39 39 W 16 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 38 38 W 16 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 37 37 NW 9 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NW 9 10328 9500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 35 35 NW 9 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 NW 9 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 NW 9 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NW 9 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 E 8 9266 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 9847 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 E 8 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 41 42 E 8 13445 12171 2671 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 43 45 E 8 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 45 49 E 8 16356 15062 5562 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 47 51 E 10 17134 15872 6372 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 48 52 E 10 17514 16266 6766 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 48 52 E 10 17514 16266 6766 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 48 52 E 10 17514 16266 6766 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 48 51 E 10 17134 15872 6372 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 47 49 E 10 16356 15062 5562 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 46 47 NW 15 15552 14223 4723 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 45 45 NW 15 14719 13394 3894 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 44 44 NW 15 14290 12993 3493 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 42 42 NW 15 13445 12171 2671 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 40 40 NW 15 12627 10894 1394 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 39 39 NW 15 12207 10321 821 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 38 38 N 10 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 N 10 11780 9841 341 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 37 37 N 10 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 10 10939 9500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 36 36 N 10 10328 9500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 35 35 N 10 9847 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com