Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 24 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 25 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 25 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 W 26 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 W 29 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 W 30 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 SW 29 7303 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 57 SW 30 7303 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 57 SW 31 7303 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 56 SW 33 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 55 SW 33 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 SW 32 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 SW 32 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 W 30 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 W 26 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 SW 25 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 W 25 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 W 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 W 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 W 21 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 W 20 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 NW 21 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NW 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 NW 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 NW 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 NW 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 NW 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 NW 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 NW 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 35 35 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 35 35 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 36 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 36 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 34 34 N 23 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 33 33 N 22 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 30 30 N 21 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 N 20 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 28 28 N 18 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 N 18 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 N 20 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 N 21 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 N 21 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 N 20 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 N 18 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 N 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 N 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 37 NE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 37 E 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 36 37 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 35 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 34 34 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 33 33 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 32 32 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 31 31 S 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 S 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 S 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 S 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SW 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 W 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 W 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 W 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 W 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 W 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 W 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 W 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 SW 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 SE 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 37 E 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 39 E 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 40 E 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 40 SE 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 38 E 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 37 37 E 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 E 10 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 32 E 10 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 30 30 N 10 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 N 10 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 N 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 42 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 43 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 N 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 N 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 N 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 N 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 N 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NW 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 NW 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 NW 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 NW 17 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NW 16 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 NW 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 NW 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 NW 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NW 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 47 N 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 49 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 49 N 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 47 N 10 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 N 9 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 N 8 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 NW 8 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 W 8 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 W 8 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 W 9 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 12 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 13 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 W 14 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 W 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 W 15 7165 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com