Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 34 34 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 34 34 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 36 36 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 33 33 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 40 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 44 44 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 46 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 48 50 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 49 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 49 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 49 50 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 43 43 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 39 39 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 36 36 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 35 35 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 34 34 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 32 32 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 31 31 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 28 28 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 28 28 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 28 28 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 27 27 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 25 25 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 25 25 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 25 25 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 30 30 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 30 31 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 31 32 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 33 35 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 34 36 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 35 37 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 35 36 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 34 34 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 33 33 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 31 31 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 29 29 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 27 27 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 27 27 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 28 28 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 28 28 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 29 29 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 29 29 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 30 30 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 30 30 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 30 30 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 31 31 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 33 33 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 36 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 39 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 41 43 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 43 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 43 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 42 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 38 38 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 36 36 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 33 33 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 32 32 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 31 31 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 32 32 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 32 32 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 32 32 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 32 32 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 31 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 31 31 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 33 33 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 40 41 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 43 44 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 46 48 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 47 49 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 47 49 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 46 47 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 42 42 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 39 39 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 36 36 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 33 33 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 33 33 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 34 34 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 34 34 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 35 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 45 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 47 49 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 48 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 48 49 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 47 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 46 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 44 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 40 40 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 37 37 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 34 34 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 33 33 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 35 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 46 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 47 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 48 49 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 48 49 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 43 43 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 40 40 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 36 36 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 34 34 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 33 33 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 34 34 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 35 35 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 34 34 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 34 34 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 34 34 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com