Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 NW 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 NW 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 NW 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 41 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 NE 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 50 NE 5 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 E 3 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 51 E 3 7688 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 50 E 2 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 47 E 1 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 E 0 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 40 E 1 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 N 3 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 NW 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 NW 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 NW 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 NW 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 47 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 NE 6 7688 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 53 NE 6 8363 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 54 NE 6 8696 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 NE 5 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 50 NE 3 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 NE 2 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 N 2 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 N 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 NW 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NW 10 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NW 10 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NW 10 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NW 10 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 NW 10 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 NW 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 NW 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NW 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 N 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 NE 5 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 54 NE 5 8696 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 56 E 6 9352 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 55 E 6 9026 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 54 E 6 8696 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 SE 6 7688 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 SE 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 SE 3 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 S 1 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 S 0 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 S 0 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 W 2 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 NW 3 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 NW 3 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 NW 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 NW 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 NW 5 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 NW 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NE 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 NE 6 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 50 E 6 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 E 6 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 E 6 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 52 E 7 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 50 SE 7 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 SE 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 SE 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 45 45 SE 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 S 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 S 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 S 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 S 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 S 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SW 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 SW 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 W 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 W 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 NW 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 NW 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 N 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 N 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 46 E 7 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 50 E 7 7346 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 51 E 7 7688 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 52 SE 8 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 52 SE 8 8027 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 SE 8 7688 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 49 SE 9 7000 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 SE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 SE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 NE 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 NE 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 N 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 N 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 N 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 N 8 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 N 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 N 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 N 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 NE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 47 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 48 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 47 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 46 E 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 SE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 SE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 SE 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 S 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 SW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 W 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 W 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 NW 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 N 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 N 9 6804 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com