Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 16 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 W 10 7615 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 SW 9 10147 9503 418 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 66 69 S 9 12334 10796 1711 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 71 76 S 9 15633 14182 5097 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 74 80 S 10 17836 15911 6826 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 76 82 S 13 22398 16795 7710 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 77 82 S 15 22398 16795 7710 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 76 80 SW 17 17836 15911 6826 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 75 78 SW 20 16395 15081 5996 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 22 13816 12252 3167 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 24 11272 10349 1264 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 25 10147 9503 418 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 25 8963 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 24 7615 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 22 6886 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 20 6886 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 W 18 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 17 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 17 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 17 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 17 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 W 17 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 W 15 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 W 10 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 SW 9 9728 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 65 68 S 8 11811 10573 1488 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 71 76 SE 8 15633 14182 5097 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 74 80 S 9 17836 15911 6826 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 76 82 S 10 22398 16795 7710 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 76 82 S 13 22398 16795 7710 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 75 79 S 14 17054 15516 6431 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 73 76 SW 14 15633 14182 5097 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 71 72 W 15 13816 12252 3167 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 67 67 W 16 11272 10349 1264 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 63 63 W 17 10147 9503 418 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 18 9517 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 17 8305 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 W 16 7615 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 15 7615 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 W 15 6112 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SW 8 6112 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 S 8 9728 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 65 68 SE 8 11811 10573 1488 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 70 75 SE 9 15194 13717 4632 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 73 79 SE 9 17054 15516 6431 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 75 81 SE 10 22199 16284 7199 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 76 82 SE 10 22398 16795 7710 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 76 80 S 10 17836 15911 6826 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 75 78 S 10 16395 15081 5996 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 72 73 SW 10 14286 12754 3669 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 11811 10573 1488 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 10 10147 9503 418 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 10 8305 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 12 6112 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NW 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NW 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 NW 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 N 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 13 8305 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 13 9938 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 65 68 E 13 11811 10573 1488 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 68 73 E 13 14286 12754 3669 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 71 77 E 14 16018 14636 5551 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 72 78 E 15 16395 15081 5996 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 73 78 E 16 16395 15081 5996 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 73 77 E 17 16018 14636 5551 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 72 75 E 18 15194 13717 4632 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 71 72 E 18 13816 12252 3167 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 69 69 E 17 12334 10796 1711 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 66 66 NE 16 10820 10129 1044 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 64 64 NE 15 10370 9712 627 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 61 61 N 14 9728 9085 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 12 8305 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 10 6112 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NW 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NW 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NW 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 W 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 W 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 W 9 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SW 9 6112 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 S 9 8305 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 S 9 10147 9503 418 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 66 69 SE 10 12334 10796 1711 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 69 74 SE 10 14745 13242 4157 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 71 77 SE 10 16018 14636 5551 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 73 79 SE 12 17054 15516 6431 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 74 79 SE 12 17054 15516 6431 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 74 78 SE 12 16395 15081 5996 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 73 76 S 13 15633 14182 5097 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 72 73 S 13 14286 12754 3669 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 70 70 S 13 12841 11205 2120 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 68 68 S 13 11811 10573 1488 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 14 10595 9921 836 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 14 9938 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 8963 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 6886 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 13 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SW 13 6112 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 S 12 8963 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 64 S 12 10370 9712 627 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 67 70 SE 10 12841 11205 2120 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 70 74 SE 10 14745 13242 4157 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 72 77 SE 12 16018 14636 5551 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 73 79 SE 13 17054 15516 6431 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 74 79 SE 14 17054 15516 6431 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 74 78 SE 15 16395 15081 5996 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 73 76 SE 15 15633 14182 5097 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 71 72 SE 16 13816 12252 3167 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 68 68 SE 16 11811 10573 1488 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 65 65 S 15 10595 9921 836 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 62 62 S 14 9938 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 59 59 SW 14 8963 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 13 6886 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 12 5902 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com