Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 1 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 NW 20 25 6153 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 NW 21 26 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NW 23 29 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 NW 25 28 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NW 24 29 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NW 20 26 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 18 23 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NNW 18 23 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 43 NNW 14 19 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 50 N 14 18 9121 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 49 54 N 13 17 10354 9367 282 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 51 57 N 12 14 11651 10311 1226 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 53 60 N 12 14 12881 11593 2508 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 54 61 NNE 11 13 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 55 62 NNE 10 13 13698 12410 3325 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 55 60 NNE 10 12 12881 11593 2508 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 55 58 NNE 10 13 12068 10746 1661 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 56 57 NNE 10 13 11651 10311 1226 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 53 53 N 10 12 9908 9106 21 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 51 51 NNE 9 11 9384 9085 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 49 49 NNW 9 11 8856 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 45 45 WNW 9 11 6995 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 NW 8 11 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 WNW 10 13 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 WNW 10 13 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 9 12 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 11 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 10 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 11 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 WNW 5 10 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 WNW 4 6 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 WNW 4 5 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 44 NW 3 5 6153 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 49 N 3 6 8856 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 49 54 ENE 4 8 10354 9367 282 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 52 59 E 6 10 12478 11174 2089 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 54 61 E 8 12 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 55 62 SE 10 14 13698 12410 3325 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 56 62 SE 11 17 13698 12410 3325 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 57 62 SSE 12 18 13698 12410 3325 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 57 60 S 13 19 12881 11593 2508 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 57 58 S 13 19 12068 10746 1661 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 55 55 SSW 12 18 10795 9627 542 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 18 9908 9106 21 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 11 17 9121 9085 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 11 17 8322 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 12 18 6995 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 12 18 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 12 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 11 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 10 17 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 WNW 10 16 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 WNW 9 13 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 WNW 9 12 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 WNW 8 11 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 6 10 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 46 NNW 5 10 7778 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 51 N 6 10 9384 9085 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 51 56 ENE 8 12 11227 9886 801 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 54 61 E 9 13 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 56 63 ESE 10 16 14460 12809 3724 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 56 63 SE 11 17 14460 12809 3724 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 57 64 SSE 12 19 15171 13201 4116 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 58 63 SSE 13 21 14460 12809 3724 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 58 61 S 16 24 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 58 59 S 17 25 12478 11174 2089 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 56 56 S 18 26 11227 9886 801 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 54 54 SSW 18 27 10354 9367 282 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 51 51 SSW 17 26 9384 9085 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 49 49 SSW 14 24 8856 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 13 20 8322 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 WSW 11 18 6995 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 WSW 11 17 6153 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 W 11 17 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 11 17 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 11 17 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 17 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 17 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 W 10 17 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 11 17 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 WSW 12 18 8322 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 51 SW 14 20 9384 9085 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 52 55 SW 16 24 10795 9627 542 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 55 59 SSW 18 27 12478 11174 2089 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 57 61 SSW 19 29 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 57 61 SW 20 29 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 57 60 SW 20 31 12881 11593 2508 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 56 58 SW 21 32 12068 10746 1661 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 54 55 SW 21 32 10795 9627 542 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 52 52 SW 21 32 9647 9085 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 49 49 SW 21 32 8856 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 45 45 SW 20 31 6995 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 SW 20 31 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 SW 20 31 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 SW 21 32 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 SW 21 32 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 SW 21 32 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 SW 20 31 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 20 31 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 20 31 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 SSW 19 29 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SSW 19 29 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 SW 19 28 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 SW 18 28 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 SW 18 27 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 39 SW 18 27 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 43 SW 18 27 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 47 SSW 18 27 8322 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 50 SW 18 27 9121 9085 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 46 51 W 17 26 9384 9085 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 46 51 W 17 26 9384 9085 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 46 50 WNW 17 26 9121 9085 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 46 48 WNW 18 27 8590 9085 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 45 46 NW 18 27 7778 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 WNW 18 26 5236 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 17 25 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 W 16 24 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 W 16 23 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 W 14 21 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 W 14 20 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 14 20 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 W 13 19 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 W 13 19 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 W 13 19 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 W 12 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 W 12 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 W 12 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 11 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 38 WSW 11 18 4915 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 44 SW 11 18 6153 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 49 S 12 19 8856 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 48 54 S 13 20 10354 9367 282 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 51 58 S 14 21 12068 10746 1661 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 53 60 S 14 23 12881 11593 2508 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 54 61 S 16 24 13277 12005 2920 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 55 60 S 17 24 12881 11593 2508 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 55 58 SSW 17 24 12068 10746 1661 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 54 55 SW 17 24 10795 9627 542 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 52 52 SW 16 24 9647 9085 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 16 23 9121 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 47 47 SW 14 23 8322 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 WSW 14 23 6995 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 WSW 14 21 5236 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]