Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 34 34 W 30 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 W 29 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 W 28 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 W 26 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 W 26 8024 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 SW 26 9685 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 46 48 SW 26 10424 9772 687 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 49 51 SW 30 11665 10397 1312 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 50 52 SW 32 12283 10635 1550 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 50 52 SW 36 12283 10635 1550 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 50 51 SW 38 11665 10397 1312 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 49 50 SW 39 11018 10131 1046 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 47 47 SW 40 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 45 45 W 38 9779 9100 15 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 41 41 W 36 8586 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 W 35 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 W 32 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 W 32 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 W 31 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 W 32 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 W 35 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 W 35 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 W 36 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 W 38 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 W 37 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 W 37 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 37 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 W 38 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 SW 39 8586 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 44 W 40 9685 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 44 48 SW 41 10424 9772 687 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 45 50 SW 43 11018 10131 1046 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 46 51 SW 45 11665 10397 1312 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 46 51 SW 46 11665 10397 1312 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 45 49 SW 47 10654 9852 767 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 44 46 SW 47 9859 9581 496 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 42 43 SW 46 9588 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 40 40 SW 43 8024 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 SW 38 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 SW 35 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 SW 33 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 SW 33 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 SW 33 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 W 32 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 W 31 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 W 30 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 W 29 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 W 28 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 W 26 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 W 25 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 W 24 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 W 23 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 36 W 22 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 41 W 22 8586 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 46 W 22 9859 9581 496 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 42 48 W 22 10424 9772 687 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 43 49 W 23 10654 9852 767 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 43 49 W 24 10654 9852 767 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 43 47 W 26 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 43 46 W 28 9859 9581 496 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 42 43 W 29 9588 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 40 40 W 29 8024 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 W 28 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 W 26 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 25 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 NW 23 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NW 21 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 NW 21 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 34 N 20 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 39 N 20 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 42 NE 20 9131 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 40 45 N 21 9779 9100 15 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 41 47 NW 22 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 42 47 NW 23 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 43 47 NW 24 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 43 46 NW 25 9859 9581 496 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 42 43 NW 26 9588 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 40 40 NW 26 8024 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NW 26 6837 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 NW 25 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 NW 25 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NW 24 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 NW 24 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 NW 24 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 NW 25 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 NW 25 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 N 25 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 N 26 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 N 26 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 N 26 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 N 28 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 N 28 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 36 N 28 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 41 N 28 8586 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 44 N 28 9685 9085 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 42 47 N 28 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 43 48 N 29 10424 9772 687 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 44 49 N 29 10654 9852 767 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 44 47 N 29 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 44 46 N 28 9859 9581 496 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 43 44 N 26 9685 9085 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 41 41 N 25 8586 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 24 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 NW 23 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NW 22 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 NW 21 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 N 21 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 N 21 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 NW 22 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NW 21 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 NW 20 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 NW 20 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 N 18 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 N 18 5289 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 38 N 17 6837 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 43 N 17 9588 9085 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 43 47 N 16 10155 9677 592 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 45 50 N 15 11018 10131 1046 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 47 52 W 15 12283 10635 1550 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 48 52 W 15 12283 10635 1550 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 48 51 SW 15 11665 10397 1312 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 48 50 S 16 11018 10131 1046 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 47 48 S 16 10424 9772 687 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 45 45 S 16 9779 9100 15 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 43 43 SW 15 9588 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 15 8586 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 W 15 8024 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 W 14 7441 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 W 14 6837 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 14 6209 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 14 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 W 14 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 14 5552 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 W 15 5552 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com