Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NW 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NW 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 6 9 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 WSW 6 9 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 8 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 5 8 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 5 8 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 58 SE 5 8 8522 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 60 63 SE 6 9 11831 9105 20 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 62 67 SE 8 11 14046 12529 3444 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 65 72 SE 10 14 16019 14692 5607 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 66 74 SE 12 17 18321 15401 6316 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 68 76 SSE 14 20 19863 16401 7316 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 70 77 SSE 16 23 20165 17575 8490 White 21
3 PM Wed 71 77 S 16 23 20165 17575 8490 White 21
4 PM Wed 70 73 SSW 14 20 16563 15049 5964 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 69 71 SW 14 20 15495 14331 5246 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 16 23 14046 12529 3444 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 16 23 12664 9978 893 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 16 23 9214 9085 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 14 20 8522 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 12 17 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 10 14 7229 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 W 9 12 6158 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 W 9 12 4913 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 W 9 12 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 9 12 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 NW 8 11 4913 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NNW 8 11 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 N 8 11 10032 9085 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 63 66 NNE 8 11 13760 11708 2623 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 65 70 ENE 8 11 15140 13967 4882 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 67 74 E 9 12 18321 15401 6316 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 69 76 ESE 11 16 19863 16401 7316 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 70 77 SE 13 19 20165 17575 8490 White 21
2 PM Thu 71 77 SE 14 20 20165 17575 8490 White 21
3 PM Thu 71 75 SSE 16 23 19285 15861 6776 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 71 74 SSE 16 23 18321 15401 6316 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 70 71 S 14 20 15495 14331 5246 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 67 67 S 13 19 14046 12529 3444 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 11 16 12664 9978 893 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 14 10032 9085 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 11 16 8706 9085 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 17 8337 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 13 19 7229 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 13 19 6158 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 WNW 13 19 4913 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 WNW 12 17 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 WNW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 WNW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NW 9 12 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 NNW 9 12 10032 9085 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 63 66 N 9 12 13760 11708 2623 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 66 71 E 9 12 15495 14331 5246 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 68 75 ESE 10 14 19285 15861 6776 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 70 77 SE 11 16 20165 17575 8490 White 21
1 PM Fri 71 78 SSE 14 20 20366 19114 10029 White 22
2 PM Fri 71 77 SSE 17 24 20165 17575 8490 White 21
3 PM Fri 71 76 S 17 24 19863 16401 7316 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 71 74 SSW 16 23 18321 15401 6316 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 69 71 SW 14 20 15495 14331 5246 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 13 19 13760 11708 2623 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 11 16 10918 9085 0 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 11 16 8706 9085 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 57 57 W 12 17 8337 9085 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 16 23 7229 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 18 25 4913 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 18 25 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 18 25 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 17 24 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 14 20 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 W 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 WNW 9 12 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 W 8 11 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 56 WSW 8 11 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 60 SW 9 12 9214 9085 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 60 64 S 10 14 12664 9978 893 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 62 67 S 11 16 14046 12529 3444 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 63 69 S 12 17 14780 13704 4619 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 63 68 S 13 19 14415 13390 4305 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 63 67 SSW 14 20 14046 12529 3444 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 62 65 SSW 14 20 13493 10811 1726 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 61 63 SW 14 20 11831 9105 20 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 59 60 WSW 14 20 9214 9085 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 14 20 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 14 20 4913 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 14 20 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 14 20 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 13 19 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 13 19 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 WNW 13 19 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 13 19 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NW 13 19 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 12 17 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NNW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 N 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 55 N 10 14 7229 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 59 NNE 10 14 8706 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 57 60 NNE 10 14 9214 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 58 62 NNE 9 12 10918 9085 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 59 63 NNE 8 11 11831 9105 20 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 59 62 NNE 6 9 10918 9085 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 59 62 N 6 9 10918 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 59 61 NNW 8 11 10032 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 58 59 NW 8 11 8706 9085 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 56 56 NW 9 12 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 NW 9 12 6158 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 12 17 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 12 17 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 11 16 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NW 10 14 4895 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 NW 9 12 6158 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 59 NNW 9 12 8706 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 59 64 NNE 9 12 12664 9978 893 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 62 68 ENE 9 12 14415 13390 4305 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 64 71 E 10 14 15495 14331 5246 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 65 71 S 10 14 15495 14331 5246 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 65 70 SW 10 14 15140 13967 4882 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 65 69 SW 10 14 14780 13704 4619 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 64 67 WSW 10 14 14046 12529 3444 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 63 64 W 10 14 12664 9978 893 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 10 14 10032 9085 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 12 8522 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 12 8127 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 W 9 12 6158 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 9 12 4913 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com