Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 35 35 NW 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 NW 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NW 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NW 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 N 7 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 NE 3 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 E 3 7540 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 53 E 3 8680 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 54 SE 5 9223 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 55 SE 5 9751 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 SE 3 8680 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 SE 3 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 39 39 S 3 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 3 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 NW 3 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 W 3 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 W 5 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 W 6 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 34 W 7 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 W 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 W 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 W 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 W 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 47 W 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 52 W 14 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 54 SW 14 9223 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 55 SW 14 9751 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 SW 15 10265 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 W 16 9223 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 W 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 W 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 W 22 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 W 24 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 W 25 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 26 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 W 28 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 W 29 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 W 30 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 W 31 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 W 30 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 W 29 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 SW 28 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 SW 28 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 SW 28 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 26 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 W 24 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 W 22 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 40 W 21 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 43 W 21 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 44 W 21 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 44 45 W 21 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 45 W 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 44 W 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 31 31 W 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 W 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 25 W 21 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 23 23 W 21 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 22 22 NW 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 21 21 NW 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 NW 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 NW 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 NW 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 20 20 NW 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 19 19 NW 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 19 19 NW 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 NW 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 19 19 NW 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 19 19 NW 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 N 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 N 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 24 24 N 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 30 31 N 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 33 34 N 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 36 N 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 35 36 N 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 37 N 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 36 N 15 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 N 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 25 25 N 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 24 24 N 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 23 N 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 23 23 NW 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 22 22 NW 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 NW 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 21 21 NW 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 NW 7 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 21 21 NW 7 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 21 21 W 7 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 21 21 W 7 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 21 21 W 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 21 21 W 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 21 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 22 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 23 23 NW 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 27 27 NW 15 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 NW 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 39 NW 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 41 NW 15 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 42 NW 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 42 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 33 33 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 29 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 W 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 25 W 14 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 W 15 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 25 25 W 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 W 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 27 27 W 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 30 30 NW 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 NW 20 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 40 NW 18 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 42 NW 17 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 43 NW 16 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 43 43 W 15 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 42 42 W 13 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 W 12 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 29 29 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 28 28 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 27 27 W 10 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 26 26 W 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 W 9 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 W 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 24 24 W 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 24 24 W 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 W 8 6394 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com