Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 27 27 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 NW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 N 5 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 N 3 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 NE 3 8826 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 NE 3 10171 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 57 E 3 10913 9085 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 56 57 NE 3 10913 9085 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 9515 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 NW 3 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 NW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 N 5 8826 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 57 N 5 10913 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 57 58 N 5 11181 9470 385 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 59 60 N 6 11711 10852 1767 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 11447 10115 1030 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 58 58 N 7 11181 9470 385 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 NW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NW 5 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NW 3 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 N 3 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 NE 3 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 E 3 11447 10115 1030 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 61 62 E 5 12797 11412 2327 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 62 63 SE 5 13544 11674 2589 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 64 65 SE 6 14903 12663 3578 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 64 65 SE 6 14903 12663 3578 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 63 63 SE 6 13544 11674 2589 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 52 52 SE 6 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 S 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 SW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 SW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 SW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 SW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 SW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 S 8 8826 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 SE 7 13544 11674 2589 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 65 67 SE 7 16128 14091 5006 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 66 68 SE 7 16702 14744 5659 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 68 70 SE 7 17786 15957 6872 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 68 69 SE 7 17254 15364 6279 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 67 67 SE 8 16128 14091 5006 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 55 55 S 8 9515 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 S 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 S 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 SW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 14 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 W 14 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 W 14 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 SW 7 9515 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 SW 6 13544 11674 2589 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 66 68 SW 6 16702 14744 5659 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 67 69 SW 6 17254 15364 6279 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 69 70 SW 6 17786 15957 6872 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 69 70 SW 7 17786 15957 6872 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 16702 14744 5659 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 8 10171 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 14 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 15 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 16 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 16 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 17 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 17 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 17 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 W 17 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 W 16 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 W 15 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 W 13 8099 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 W 12 11994 11148 2063 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 63 64 W 12 14243 11935 2850 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 64 66 W 13 15529 13400 4315 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 66 67 W 13 16128 14091 5006 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 66 67 W 14 16128 14091 5006 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 65 65 SW 15 14903 12663 3578 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 53 53 SW 16 8099 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 W 17 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 W 18 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 20 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 W 21 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 W 21 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 W 22 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 23 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 23 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 23 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 23 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 23 7073 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com