Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 38 38 SW 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 45 45 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 42 42 SW 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 42 42 SW 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 40 40 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 37 37 SW 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 34 34 SW 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 37 37 SW 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 34 34 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 32 32 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 29 29 SW 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 32 32 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 32 32 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 32 32 W 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 29 29 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 29 29 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 29 29 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 32 32 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 32 32 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 32 32 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 32 32 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 34 34 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 29 29 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 32 32 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 35 35 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 42 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 42 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 42 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 45 47 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 46 47 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 45 45 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 41 41 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 37 37 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 31 31 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 31 31 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 32 32 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 33 33 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 33 33 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 33 33 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 33 33 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 32 32 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 32 32 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 33 33 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 35 35 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 39 39 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 42 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 43 45 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 44 46 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 45 46 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 46 47 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 46 46 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 45 45 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 42 42 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 39 39 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 35 35 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 35 35 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 35 35 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 33 33 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 33 33 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 33 33 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 32 32 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 32 32 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 33 33 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 35 35 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 39 39 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 42 42 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 44 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 45 46 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 45 46 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 45 45 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 44 44 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 42 42 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 40 40 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 38 38 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 36 36 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 33 33 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 31 31 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 30 30 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 26 26 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 25 25 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 25 25 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 27 27 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 30 30 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 32 33 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 34 36 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 35 37 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 35 37 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 34 35 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 34 34 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 32 32 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 30 30 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 28 28 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 26 26 NW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 25 25 NW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 25 25 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 25 25 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 25 25 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 NW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 25 25 NW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 25 25 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 25 25 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 25 25 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 24 24 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 24 24 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 25 25 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 28 28 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 31 31 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 35 36 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 37 39 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 39 41 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 40 42 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 40 41 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 39 39 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 38 38 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 35 35 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 33 33 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 31 31 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 30 30 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 31 31 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 31 31 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 30 30 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 29 29 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 30 30 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com