Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 36 36 W 23 7345 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 W 25 7345 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 W 25 7486 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 W 23 7627 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 39 W 23 7787 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 40 42 W 21 8306 9085 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 42 45 W 20 8840 9085 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 42 46 W 23 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 42 46 W 28 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 41 44 W 29 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 41 44 W 33 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 39 41 W 38 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 38 39 W 38 7787 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 36 36 W 35 7345 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 W 30 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 W 20 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 NW 16 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 18 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 NW 18 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 NW 18 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 NW 16 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 NW 15 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 NW 16 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 NW 17 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 NW 17 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 NW 18 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 N 20 7270 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 37 N 18 7486 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 41 N 18 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 40 44 N 17 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 42 47 N 15 9936 9085 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 44 50 N 13 11784 9882 797 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 46 51 N 12 12196 10328 1243 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 47 52 N 10 12601 10881 1796 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 48 52 N 10 12601 10881 1796 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 48 50 N 10 11784 9882 797 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 47 48 N 10 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 46 46 N 10 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 44 44 N 12 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 13 8306 9085 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 14 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 41 41 NW 16 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 40 40 NW 17 7960 9085 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 18 7787 9085 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 39 39 NW 18 7787 9085 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 38 38 NW 18 7627 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 NW 18 7486 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 NW 17 7486 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 NW 17 7486 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NW 17 7627 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NW 16 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 43 44 NW 16 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 45 48 NW 17 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 48 52 N 18 12601 10881 1796 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 50 56 N 18 14203 12926 3841 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 52 58 N 16 15026 13697 4612 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 53 60 N 13 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 54 60 NW 10 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 54 59 N 10 15426 14108 5023 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 53 56 N 13 14203 12926 3841 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 52 54 N 14 13392 12131 3046 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 50 50 N 14 11784 9882 797 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 48 48 N 14 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 46 46 NW 14 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 45 45 NW 14 8840 9085 0 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 44 44 NW 15 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 43 43 NW 15 8478 9085 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NW 15 8306 9085 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 42 42 NW 15 8306 9085 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 41 41 NW 15 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 40 40 NW 16 7960 9085 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 18 7960 9085 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 40 40 NW 20 7960 9085 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 41 41 NW 20 8133 9085 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 20 8478 9085 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 46 47 N 18 9936 9085 0 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 49 51 N 17 12196 10328 1243 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 52 55 N 16 13780 12532 3447 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 54 58 N 15 15026 13697 4612 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 55 60 NE 16 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 56 60 E 17 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 56 59 SE 18 15426 14108 5023 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 57 60 S 20 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 57 59 S 21 15426 14108 5023 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 56 57 SW 21 14618 13314 4229 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 20 13392 12131 3046 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 51 51 W 18 12196 10328 1243 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 49 49 W 16 10994 9327 242 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 15 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 14 9936 9085 0 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 14 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 14 8840 9085 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 8840 9085 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 44 44 W 14 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 43 43 W 14 8478 9085 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 15 8306 9085 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 15 8306 9085 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 15 8478 9085 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 45 45 W 15 8840 9085 0 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 48 49 W 15 10994 9327 242 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 50 53 SW 15 13000 11724 2639 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 53 57 S 15 14618 13314 4229 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 55 61 SE 15 16206 14922 5837 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 57 63 SE 16 16962 15708 6623 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 58 64 SE 17 17332 16092 7007 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 59 65 SE 17 17697 16469 7384 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 59 63 SE 13 16962 15708 6623 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 59 62 S 6 16587 15318 6233 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 58 59 SW 2 15426 14108 5023 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 56 56 SW 3 14203 12926 3841 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 53 53 NW 8 13000 11724 2639 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 51 51 N 12 12196 10328 1243 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 49 49 NW 13 10994 9327 242 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 48 48 NW 14 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 47 47 W 14 9936 9085 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 14 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 14 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 8840 9085 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 14 8478 9085 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 43 43 W 14 8478 9085 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 14 8656 9085 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 46 46 N 15 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 49 50 N 15 11784 9882 797 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 51 53 NE 14 13000 11724 2639 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 54 57 E 14 14618 13314 4229 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 56 60 E 14 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 58 62 E 16 16587 15318 6233 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 59 63 SE 20 16962 15708 6623 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 60 64 SE 22 17332 16092 7007 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 60 63 S 23 16962 15708 6623 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 60 62 SW 23 16587 15318 6233 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 59 60 W 22 15819 14519 5434 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 21 14618 13314 4229 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 18 13392 12131 3046 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 17 12601 10881 1796 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 17 12196 10328 1243 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 50 50 W 17 11784 9882 797 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 49 49 W 17 10994 9327 242 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 16 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 16 10355 9085 0 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 15 9936 9085 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 15 9363 9085 0 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 16 9363 9085 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com