Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 29 29 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 28 28 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 30 30 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 23 23 SW 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 23 23 SW 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 23 23 SW 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 23 23 SW 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 23 23 SW 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 21 21 SW 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 21 21 SW 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 21 21 SW 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 20 20 SW 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 19 19 SW 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 18 18 SW 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 18 18 SW 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 17 17 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 17 17 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 17 17 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 17 17 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 17 17 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 18 18 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 19 19 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 19 19 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 19 19 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 19 19 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 18 18 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 19 19 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 20 20 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 22 22 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 24 24 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 27 27 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 29 29 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 30 31 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 32 33 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 31 31 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 30 30 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 29 29 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 29 29 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 29 29 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 29 29 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 28 28 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 28 28 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 29 29 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 30 30 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 30 30 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 30 30 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 29 29 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 29 29 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 29 29 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 29 29 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 31 31 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 34 34 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 36 36 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 37 38 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 37 38 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 37 38 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 36 36 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 35 35 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 33 33 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 32 32 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 30 30 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 28 28 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 27 27 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 26 26 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 26 26 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 27 27 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 28 28 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 29 29 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 31 31 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 32 32 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 34 34 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 33 33 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 32 32 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 30 30 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 29 29 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 29 29 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 28 28 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 27 27 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 25 25 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 22 22 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 20 20 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 22 22 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 26 26 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 24 24 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 22 22 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 19 19 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 18 18 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 19 19 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 20 20 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 20 20 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 21 21 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 22 23 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 25 26 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 27 28 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 28 29 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 28 29 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 27 27 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 25 25 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 22 22 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 20 20 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 18 18 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 17 17 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 16 16 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 16 16 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 17 17 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 18 18 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 20 20 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 20 20 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 20 20 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 20 20 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 18 18 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 18 18 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 19 19 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 22 22 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 27 27 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 31 32 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 31 32 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 30 32 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 29 30 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 30 31 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 31 31 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 30 30 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 27 27 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 23 23 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 20 20 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 20 20 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 22 22 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 23 23 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 23 23 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 23 23 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 22 22 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 23 23 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 24 24 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com