Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 29 29 S 26 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 S 26 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 S 26 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 S 20 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 S 20 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 33 S 20 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 32 32 SW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 32 32 SW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 32 32 SW 17 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 31 31 SW 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 31 31 SW 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 29 29 SW 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 28 28 W 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 28 28 W 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 W 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 W 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 NW 12 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 NW 12 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 NW 12 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NW 13 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 37 NW 13 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 38 39 NW 13 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 39 41 N 14 12712 11101 1601 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 40 43 N 14 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 41 44 N 14 13941 12668 3168 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 41 43 NW 14 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 40 42 NW 14 13122 11837 2337 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 39 40 NW 14 12295 10380 880 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 38 38 W 15 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 37 37 W 15 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 36 36 W 15 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 36 36 W 15 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 34 34 W 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 W 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 38 39 N 15 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 39 41 N 15 12712 11101 1601 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 41 44 N 15 13941 12668 3168 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 42 46 N 20 14801 13472 3972 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 43 47 N 20 15218 13876 4376 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 44 48 N 20 15629 14305 4805 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 44 48 N 20 15629 14305 4805 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 44 47 N 20 15218 13876 4376 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 44 46 N 20 14801 13472 3972 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 43 44 N 16 13941 12668 3168 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 13122 11837 2337 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 40 40 N 16 12295 10380 880 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 39 39 N 16 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 16 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 16 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 37 37 NE 17 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 17 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 36 36 NE 17 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 36 36 NE 17 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 35 35 NE 17 9393 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 NE 17 9393 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 E 12 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 37 37 E 12 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 12 12295 10380 880 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 42 43 E 12 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 45 47 E 12 15218 13876 4376 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 46 50 E 12 16428 15139 5639 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 47 50 E 10 16428 15139 5639 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 48 51 E 10 16818 15545 6045 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 48 51 E 10 16818 15545 6045 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 48 51 E 10 16818 15545 6045 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 47 49 E 10 16032 14726 5226 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 46 48 E 10 15629 14305 4805 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 44 44 W 16 13941 12668 3168 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 43 43 W 16 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 42 42 W 16 13122 11837 2337 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 41 41 W 16 12712 11101 1601 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 39 39 W 16 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 37 37 SW 10 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 SW 10 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 36 36 SW 10 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 36 36 SW 10 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 35 35 SW 10 9393 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 SW 10 8858 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 S 10 9393 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 S 10 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 10 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 42 43 S 10 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 44 46 S 10 14801 13472 3972 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 46 49 S 10 16032 14726 5226 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 47 51 SW 12 16818 15545 6045 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 48 53 SW 12 17581 16336 6836 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 49 54 SW 12 17954 16722 7222 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 48 52 SW 12 17202 15944 6444 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 48 52 SW 12 17202 15944 6444 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 47 50 SW 12 16428 15139 5639 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 46 47 W 17 15218 13876 4376 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 45 45 W 17 14375 13073 3573 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 17 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 42 42 W 17 13122 11837 2337 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 41 41 W 17 12712 11101 1601 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 17 12295 10380 880 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 39 39 N 10 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 N 10 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 37 37 N 10 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 36 36 N 10 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 36 36 N 10 9995 9500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 37 37 E 10 10389 9500 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 38 38 E 10 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 41 41 E 10 12712 11101 1601 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 44 45 E 10 14375 13073 3573 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 47 49 E 10 16032 14726 5226 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 49 53 E 10 17581 16336 6836 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 50 53 NE 12 17581 16336 6836 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 51 55 NE 12 18321 17103 7603 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 51 55 NE 12 18321 17103 7603 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 51 55 NE 12 18321 17103 7603 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 50 53 NE 12 17581 16336 6836 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 49 51 NE 12 16818 15545 6045 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 47 48 W 15 15629 14305 4805 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 15 14801 13472 3972 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 15 14375 13073 3573 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 43 43 W 15 13525 12256 2756 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 42 42 W 15 13122 11837 2337 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 41 41 W 15 12712 11101 1601 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 40 40 N 13 12295 10380 880 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 13 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 39 39 N 13 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 39 39 N 13 11870 9983 483 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 38 38 N 13 11156 9500 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 37 37 N 13 10389 9500 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com