Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 28 28 SW 31 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 25 SW 31 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 25 25 SW 31 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 SW 29 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 SW 29 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 29 29 SW 29 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 32 SW 30 9582 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 31 32 SW 30 9582 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 31 32 SW 30 9582 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 30 31 SW 30 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 30 31 SW 30 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 31 31 SW 30 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 30 30 S 30 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 29 29 S 30 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 28 28 S 30 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 S 29 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 26 26 S 29 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 25 25 S 29 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 25 25 S 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 S 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 S 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 SW 36 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 SW 36 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 SW 36 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 S 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 S 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 S 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 27 S 31 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 27 27 S 31 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 27 27 S 31 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 26 26 SW 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 26 26 SW 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 26 26 SW 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 25 25 SW 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 25 25 SW 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 25 25 SW 33 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 25 25 SW 28 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 24 24 SW 28 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 23 23 SW 28 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 22 22 SW 28 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 22 22 SW 28 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 21 21 SW 28 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 S 21 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 19 19 S 21 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 18 18 S 21 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 18 18 S 21 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 18 18 S 21 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 18 18 S 21 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 17 17 SW 16 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 16 16 SW 16 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 16 16 SW 16 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 16 16 SW 16 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 18 18 SW 16 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 20 21 SW 16 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 23 24 SW 20 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 23 24 SW 20 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 23 24 SW 20 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 22 23 SW 20 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 22 23 SW 20 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 21 21 SW 20 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 21 21 W 17 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 20 20 W 17 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 19 19 W 17 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 18 18 W 17 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 17 17 W 17 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 17 17 W 17 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 16 16 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 16 16 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 16 16 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 16 16 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 16 16 W 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 17 17 W 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 18 18 W 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 19 19 W 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 23 W 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 25 27 W 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 32 NW 10 9582 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 31 35 NW 10 9860 9581 81 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 33 38 NW 10 10673 9859 359 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 34 38 NW 10 10673 9859 359 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 33 36 NW 10 10167 9681 181 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 31 33 NW 10 9681 9500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 29 30 NW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 27 27 NW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 25 25 NW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 23 23 NW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 22 22 NW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 21 21 NW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 20 20 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 20 20 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 20 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 18 18 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 18 18 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 25 26 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 29 31 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 32 35 NE 8 9860 9581 81 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 34 38 NE 8 10673 9859 359 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 35 39 NE 8 11109 10161 661 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 35 39 NE 8 11109 10161 661 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 35 38 NE 8 10673 9859 359 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 35 37 NE 8 10444 9777 277 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 34 35 N 8 9860 9581 81 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 31 31 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 27 27 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 24 24 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 N 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 24 24 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 24 24 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 23 23 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 NE 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 SE 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 SE 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 SE 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 SE 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 30 SE 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 35 SE 7 9860 9581 81 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 37 40 SW 8 11777 10435 935 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 39 43 SW 8 13015 11728 2228 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 41 45 SW 8 13622 12675 3175 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 41 45 SW 8 13622 12675 3175 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 40 43 SW 8 13015 11728 2228 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 38 40 SW 8 11777 10435 935 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 36 36 SW 8 10167 9681 181 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 33 33 SW 8 9681 9500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 31 31 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 SW 8 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 SW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 SW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 SW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 SW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 SW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 SW 7 9360 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com