Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 33 33 SE 9 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 SE 9 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 SE 9 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 SE 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 SE 8 7299 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 E 3 9031 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 46 E 3 9702 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 48 E 3 11138 9500 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 47 48 NE 5 11138 9500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 46 46 NE 5 9702 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 43 43 NE 5 8692 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 41 41 N 5 8002 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 38 38 N 5 6941 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 35 35 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 E 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 E 5 7652 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 E 6 9368 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 50 E 6 12283 10512 1012 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 50 52 E 6 13345 11679 2179 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 51 53 NE 7 13804 12233 2733 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 50 51 NE 7 12827 11106 1606 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 48 48 NE 7 11138 9500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 9368 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 NE 6 8002 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 NE 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 E 6 6941 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 E 6 8348 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 E 6 9702 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 50 E 6 12283 10512 1012 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 50 52 E 6 13345 11679 2179 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 51 52 E 6 13345 11679 2179 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 50 51 E 6 12827 11106 1606 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 11138 9500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 45 45 N 5 9368 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 5 8348 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 N 5 6941 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 S 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 W 5 6941 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 SW 6 8348 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 44 SW 6 9031 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 45 SW 6 9368 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 44 45 SW 6 9368 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 45 SW 6 9368 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 43 43 SW 6 8692 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 W 5 8002 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 38 38 W 5 6941 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 34 34 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 31 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 28 28 W 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 S 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 27 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 SW 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 SW 3 7652 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 42 SW 3 8348 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 44 SW 3 9031 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 SW 3 9031 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 SW 3 9031 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 SW 3 8348 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 N 5 7652 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 28 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 N 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 E 8 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 36 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 38 E 6 6941 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 40 E 6 7652 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 41 E 6 8002 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 41 42 E 6 8348 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 8002 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 NE 5 7299 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 NE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 NE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 NE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 NE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 NE 5 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 E 6 6804 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com