Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.340, -119.5880, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

3 DEC 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 NNW 2 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 NW 2 5 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NW 2 5 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 NW 2 5 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NNW 3 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 NNW 3 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 NNW 3 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 N 2 4 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 N 2 4 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 N 2 4 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 42 43 NE 2 4 12026 11055 1555 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 44 45 NE 2 4 13076 11526 2026 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 45 47 NE 2 4 13412 12506 3006 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 45 47 NNE 2 4 13412 12506 3006 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 45 46 NNE 2 4 13274 11981 2481 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 43 43 NNE 2 4 12026 11055 1555 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 41 41 NNW 2 3 11305 9517 17 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 38 38 NNW 2 3 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 NNW 2 3 10516 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 WNW 2 4 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 WNW 2 4 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 WNW 2 4 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 WNW 3 5 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 WNW 3 5 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 WNW 3 5 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 5 9 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 5 9 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 5 9 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 6 11 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 6 11 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 6 11 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NNW 4 8 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 NNW 4 8 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 NNW 4 8 11305 9517 17 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 43 44 N 3 4 12559 11291 1791 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 45 47 N 3 4 13412 12506 3006 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 45 47 N 3 4 13412 12506 3006 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 44 46 NNW 5 9 13274 11981 2481 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 43 44 NNW 5 9 12559 11291 1791 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 42 42 NNW 5 9 11542 10489 989 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 9 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 39 39 NW 5 9 10516 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 37 37 NW 5 9 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 WNW 3 5 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 3 5 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 3 5 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 SW 4 6 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 SW 4 6 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SW 4 6 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 WSW 6 11 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 WSW 6 11 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 WSW 6 11 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 W 8 13 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 W 8 13 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 W 8 13 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 8 12 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 W 8 12 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 W 8 12 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 NW 9 13 11305 9517 17 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 42 43 NW 9 13 12026 11055 1555 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 43 45 NW 9 13 13076 11526 2026 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 44 45 NNW 8 13 13076 11526 2026 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 44 45 NNW 8 13 13076 11526 2026 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 43 43 NNW 8 13 12026 11055 1555 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 10 11305 9517 17 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 39 39 NNW 6 10 10516 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 NNW 6 10 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 W 5 9 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 5 9 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 5 9 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 10 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 10 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 W 6 10 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 9 14 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 W 9 14 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 W 9 14 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 11 18 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 W 11 18 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 W 11 18 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 10 16 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 16 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 W 10 16 10516 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 W 14 24 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 39 40 W 14 24 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 38 39 W 14 24 10516 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 37 37 W 17 27 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 36 36 W 17 27 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 36 36 W 17 27 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 35 W 16 25 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 W 16 25 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 W 16 25 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 14 24 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 14 24 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 14 24 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 W 10 16 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 SW 11 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 SW 11 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 SW 11 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 SSW 11 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 SSW 11 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 30 30 SSW 11 18 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 32 SW 9 14 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 34 SW 9 14 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 36 SW 9 14 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 35 36 W 9 14 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 35 36 W 9 14 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 W 9 14 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 35 35 WSW 8 12 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 35 35 WSW 8 12 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 WSW 8 12 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 WSW 5 9 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 WSW 5 9 5000 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 WSW 5 9 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 WSW 5 9 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 WSW 5 9 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 WSW 5 9 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 6 11 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 6 11 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 6 11 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 WSW 9 14 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 WSW 9 14 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 WSW 9 14 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 WSW 8 12 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 WSW 8 12 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 WSW 8 12 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 40 WSW 8 12 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 39 40 WSW 8 12 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 39 41 WSW 8 12 11305 9517 17 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 39 40 WSW 10 16 11068 9500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 38 39 WSW 10 16 10516 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 10 16 9520 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 10 16 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 36 WSW 10 16 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 10 16 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 SW 8 12 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 SW 8 12 6256 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 SW 8 12 7498 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SW 10 16 7498 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com