Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 33 33 SW 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 SW 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 SW 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 S 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 40 S 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 45 S 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 51 W 10 10940 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 49 54 W 10 12968 10904 1404 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 51 57 W 10 13467 12938 3438 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 51 56 W 13 13301 12315 2815 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 51 55 W 13 13134 11629 2129 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 50 53 W 13 12378 10151 651 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 49 50 W 14 10163 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 W 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 W 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 W 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 SW 12 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SW 12 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 SW 12 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SW 17 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 SW 17 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 SW 17 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 SW 17 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 SW 17 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 48 SW 17 9094 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 50 SW 29 10163 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 52 SW 29 11680 9632 132 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 47 52 SW 29 11680 9632 132 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 46 50 SW 31 10163 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 45 48 SW 31 9094 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 46 SW 31 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 44 SW 29 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 SW 29 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 SW 29 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 SW 29 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 SW 29 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 SW 29 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 SW 15 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 SW 15 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 SW 15 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 SW 15 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 SW 15 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 SW 15 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 36 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 40 SW 10 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 42 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 44 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 44 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 41 44 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 41 43 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 41 W 14 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 40 NW 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 NW 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 NW 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 NW 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NW 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NW 13 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NE 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 NE 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NE 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NE 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 NE 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 NE 8 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 E 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 E 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 E 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 E 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 38 E 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 45 E 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 51 NW 7 10940 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 48 53 NW 7 12378 10151 651 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 49 55 NW 7 13134 11629 2129 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 49 54 NW 7 12968 10904 1404 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 50 54 NW 7 12968 10904 1404 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 50 53 NW 7 12378 10151 651 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 50 51 NW 7 10940 9500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 47 47 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 E 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 E 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 E 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 E 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 E 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 E 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 49 E 5 9636 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 55 W 5 13134 11629 2129 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 53 58 W 5 13633 13114 3614 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 53 59 W 5 13813 13280 3780 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 53 58 W 5 13633 13114 3614 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 54 58 W 5 13633 13114 3614 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 55 58 W 5 13633 13114 3614 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 55 56 NW 7 13301 12315 2815 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 52 52 NW 7 11680 9632 132 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 48 48 NW 7 9094 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 NW 7 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 S 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 S 6 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 54 S 6 12968 10904 1404 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 56 60 SW 14 14202 13445 3945 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 57 61 SW 14 14627 13611 4111 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 56 61 SW 14 14627 13611 4111 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 55 59 SW 14 13813 13280 3780 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 55 59 SW 14 13813 13280 3780 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 55 57 SW 14 13467 12938 3438 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 55 56 W 16 13301 12315 2815 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 16 11680 9632 132 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 48 48 W 16 9094 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 16 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 16 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 16 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 SW 9 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 SW 9 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 SW 9 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 9 8589 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 SW 9 8589 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com