Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SW 5 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 SW 3 11574 9517 17 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 62 64 SW 3 14880 12374 2874 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 65 68 SW 3 16140 15371 5871 White 11
11 AM Sat 67 68 SW 5 16140 15371 5871 White 11
12 Noon Sat 68 69 SW 5 16357 15639 6139 White 12
1 PM Sat 68 70 SW 5 16574 16010 6510 White 13
2 PM Sat 67 68 SW 6 16140 15371 5871 White 11
3 PM Sat 65 66 SW 6 15693 13910 4410 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 63 64 SW 6 14880 12374 2874 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 61 62 W 8 13261 10567 1067 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 8 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 11574 9517 17 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 10603 9500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 7 9971 9500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 7 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 NW 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NW 3 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NW 3 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NE 2 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 2 8611 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 2 8430 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 W 3 8430 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 W 3 8611 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 W 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 W 3 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 W 3 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 66 W 3 15693 13910 4410 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 64 66 NE 6 15693 13910 4410 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 65 67 NE 6 15923 14713 5213 White 10
1 PM Sun 66 68 NE 6 16140 15371 5871 White 11
2 PM Sun 66 68 SW 6 16140 15371 5871 White 11
3 PM Sun 65 67 SW 6 15923 14713 5213 White 10
4 PM Sun 64 65 SW 6 15423 13168 3668 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 63 64 SW 10 14880 12374 2874 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 63 63 SW 10 14015 11513 2013 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 62 62 SW 10 13261 10567 1067 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 61 61 SW 10 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 10 10603 9500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 10 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 N 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 N 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 N 3 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 9971 9500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 61 61 NE 5 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 64 65 NE 5 15423 13168 3668 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 67 70 NE 5 16574 16010 6510 White 13
11 AM Mon 69 72 W 9 17004 16747 7247 White 15
12 Noon Mon 70 73 W 9 17219 16986 7486 White 16
1 PM Mon 71 75 W 9 17646 17383 7883 White 18
2 PM Mon 70 73 W 9 17219 16986 7486 White 16
3 PM Mon 69 72 W 9 17004 16747 7247 White 15
4 PM Mon 67 69 W 9 16357 15639 6139 White 12
5 PM Mon 65 66 W 13 15693 13910 4410 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 14880 12374 2874 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 14880 12374 2874 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 13 13261 10567 1067 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 13 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 13 9971 9500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 57 57 NE 5 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 5 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 5 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 5 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 3 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 SE 3 11574 9517 17 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 63 65 SE 3 15423 13168 3668 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 67 70 SE 3 16574 16010 6510 White 13
11 AM Tue 69 73 SW 6 17219 16986 7486 White 16
12 Noon Tue 69 73 SW 6 17219 16986 7486 White 16
1 PM Tue 68 73 SW 6 17219 16986 7486 White 16
2 PM Tue 67 71 SW 6 16789 16384 6884 White 14
3 PM Tue 67 71 SW 6 16789 16384 6884 White 14
4 PM Tue 67 70 SW 6 16574 16010 6510 White 13
5 PM Tue 67 69 W 9 16357 15639 6139 White 12
6 PM Tue 64 65 W 9 15423 13168 3668 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 61 61 W 9 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 9 9971 9500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 9 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 SE 3 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SE 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 SE 3 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SE 3 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SE 3 8611 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 S 2 8611 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 S 2 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 2 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 60 S 2 11574 9517 17 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 63 65 S 2 15423 13168 3668 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 67 71 S 2 16789 16384 6884 White 14
11 AM Wed 69 73 SW 13 17219 16986 7486 White 16
12 Noon Wed 70 75 SW 13 17646 17383 7883 White 18
1 PM Wed 70 76 SW 13 17860 17860 8360 White 19
2 PM Wed 69 74 SW 13 17433 17185 7685 White 17
3 PM Wed 69 74 SW 13 17433 17185 7685 White 17
4 PM Wed 69 72 SW 13 17004 16747 7247 White 15
5 PM Wed 68 70 W 15 16574 16010 6510 White 13
6 PM Wed 65 66 W 15 15693 13910 4410 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 15 13261 10567 1067 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 15 10603 9500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 15 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 15 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 3 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 3 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SW 3 8430 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SW 3 8430 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SW 3 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SW 3 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 SW 3 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 64 66 SW 3 15693 13910 4410 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 68 72 SW 3 17004 16747 7247 White 15
11 AM Thu 71 76 SW 14 17860 17860 8360 White 19
12 Noon Thu 72 78 SW 14 18294 18294 8794 White 21
1 PM Thu 72 79 SW 14 18509 18509 9009 White 22
2 PM Thu 72 78 SW 14 18294 18294 8794 White 21
3 PM Thu 72 78 SW 14 18294 18294 8794 White 21
4 PM Thu 72 76 SW 14 17860 17860 8360 White 19
5 PM Thu 70 72 W 20 17004 16747 7247 White 15
6 PM Thu 67 68 W 20 16140 15371 5871 White 11
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 20 14880 12374 2874 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 20 12452 9963 463 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 20 10603 9500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 20 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 9 9517 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SW 9 9333 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 9 9153 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 SW 9 8973 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 SW 9 8792 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 9 8611 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com