Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 32 32 NE 7 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NE 7 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 NE 7 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 36 NE 7 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 40 NE 7 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 44 NE 7 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 49 N 7 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 46 52 N 7 11546 10940 1440 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 48 54 N 7 12017 11336 1836 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 49 55 N 10 12443 11533 2033 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 50 55 N 10 12443 11533 2033 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 50 53 N 10 11744 11138 1638 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 49 51 N 12 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 47 48 N 12 10750 9535 35 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 12 9536 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 N 9 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 N 9 8445 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 9 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 N 7 7891 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 N 7 7891 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 N 7 7611 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 6 7611 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 N 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 N 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 N 5 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 5 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 5 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 43 NE 5 8993 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 48 NE 5 10750 9535 35 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 48 53 NE 5 11744 11138 1638 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 51 57 N 7 13591 11994 2494 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 52 59 N 7 14734 12962 3462 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 53 61 N 7 16276 14054 4554 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 54 61 N 8 16276 14054 4554 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 55 61 N 8 16276 14054 4554 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 56 60 N 8 15534 13517 4017 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 55 57 N 8 13591 11994 2494 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 54 55 N 8 12443 11533 2033 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 8 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 47 47 N 8 10073 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 N 8 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 NE 6 9536 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NE 6 9536 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 NE 6 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 6 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NE 6 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NE 6 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SE 3 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 3 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 SE 3 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 52 55 SE 3 12443 11533 2033 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 54 58 SE 3 14135 12386 2886 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 56 61 SW 13 16276 14054 4554 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 58 63 SW 13 18237 15382 5882 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 59 65 SW 13 21587 16806 7306 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 59 64 SW 13 20140 16116 6616 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 59 63 SW 13 18237 15382 5882 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 58 61 SW 13 16276 14054 4554 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 56 57 SW 13 13591 11994 2494 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 54 54 SW 13 12017 11336 1836 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 52 52 SW 13 11546 10940 1440 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 50 50 SW 13 11149 10067 567 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 48 48 SW 13 10750 9535 35 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 46 46 SW 13 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 7 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SW 7 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 SW 7 10073 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SW 7 10073 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 SW 7 9536 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 SW 7 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 S 12 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 12 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 12 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 51 52 S 12 11546 10940 1440 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 53 55 S 12 12443 11533 2033 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 53 57 S 12 13591 11994 2494 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 53 57 S 18 13591 11994 2494 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 54 59 S 18 14734 12962 3462 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 54 59 S 18 14734 12962 3462 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 54 59 S 18 14734 12962 3462 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 53 57 S 18 13591 11994 2494 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 52 55 S 18 12443 11533 2033 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 50 51 SW 21 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 49 49 SW 21 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 47 47 SW 21 10073 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 SW 21 9536 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 21 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 SW 21 8993 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 12 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 12 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 8993 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 S 12 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 S 12 8445 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 S 12 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 S 9 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 S 9 8445 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 9 8993 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 46 S 9 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 48 S 9 10750 9535 35 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 46 49 S 9 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 46 50 SW 18 11149 10067 567 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 47 51 SW 18 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 47 51 SW 18 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 47 51 SW 18 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 46 49 SW 18 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 45 47 SW 18 10073 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 44 SW 17 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 SW 17 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 SW 17 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 SW 17 7891 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 SW 17 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 SW 17 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 SW 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 7611 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 42 SW 6 8720 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 45 SW 6 9536 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 47 SW 6 10073 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 50 W 7 11149 10067 567 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 46 51 W 7 11348 10742 1242 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 47 53 W 7 11744 11138 1638 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 48 53 W 7 11744 11138 1638 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 49 53 W 7 11744 11138 1638 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 49 52 W 7 11546 10940 1440 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 48 49 W 8 10950 9802 302 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 9805 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 9265 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 W 8 8445 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 W 8 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 W 8 8168 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 N 6 7891 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 6 7891 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 7611 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 7592 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com