Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 S 10 6729 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 52 S 10 10153 9506 6 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 52 56 SW 13 11352 10376 876 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 55 60 SW 13 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 57 63 SW 13 14921 13410 3910 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 58 63 SW 14 14921 13410 3910 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 58 62 SW 14 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 58 61 SW 14 13968 12395 2895 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 57 58 SW 13 12445 10835 1335 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 54 54 SW 13 10614 9935 435 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 51 51 SW 13 9938 9500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 47 47 S 9 8219 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 S 9 6729 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 S 9 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 S 8 7496 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 52 S 8 10153 9506 6 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 53 57 S 10 11907 10606 1106 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 56 61 S 10 13968 12395 2895 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 57 63 S 10 14921 13410 3910 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 58 63 SW 13 14921 13410 3910 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 58 62 SW 13 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 57 60 SW 13 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 56 57 SW 10 11907 10606 1106 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 53 53 SW 10 10383 9720 220 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 10 9722 9500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 47 47 SW 10 8219 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 SW 10 6729 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 SW 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 S 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 SW 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 SW 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 SW 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SW 8 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 SW 8 7496 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 52 SW 8 10153 9506 6 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 53 57 SW 15 11907 10606 1106 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 55 60 SW 15 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 56 62 SW 15 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 56 61 SW 15 13968 12395 2895 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 56 60 SW 15 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 55 58 SW 15 12445 10835 1335 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 54 55 SW 13 10845 10148 648 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 51 51 SW 13 9938 9500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 48 48 SW 13 8906 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 SW 13 6729 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 SW 13 5910 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 SW 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 SW 7 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 49 SW 7 9506 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 53 W 7 10383 9720 220 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 51 56 W 7 11352 10376 876 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 53 59 W 7 12967 11318 1818 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 54 59 W 7 12967 11318 1818 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 56 60 W 7 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 56 59 W 7 12967 11318 1818 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 54 55 NW 6 10845 10148 648 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 50 50 NW 6 9722 9500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 45 45 NW 6 6729 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NW 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 NW 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NW 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 E 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 E 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 S 6 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 S 6 8219 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 53 S 6 10383 9720 220 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 53 57 SW 8 11907 10606 1106 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 55 60 SW 8 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 56 62 SW 8 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 57 62 SW 8 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 58 62 SW 8 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 59 62 SW 8 14450 12909 3409 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 57 58 SW 10 12445 10835 1335 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 10 10383 9720 220 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 8219 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 SW 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 SW 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SW 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 S 10 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SW 12 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 46 SW 12 7496 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 51 SW 12 9938 9500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 52 56 SW 14 11352 10376 876 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 53 58 SW 14 12445 10835 1335 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 54 60 SW 14 13474 11865 2365 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 54 59 SW 14 12967 11318 1818 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 55 59 SW 14 12967 11318 1818 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 55 58 SW 14 12445 10835 1335 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 53 54 SW 16 10614 9935 435 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 50 50 SW 16 9722 9500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 46 46 SW 16 7496 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 SW 16 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 SW 16 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 16 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 S 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 S 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 S 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 S 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 S 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 13 5902 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com