Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 58 SW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 63 SW 9 11540 9813 313 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 62 67 SW 9 13183 11712 2212 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 63 69 SW 14 14281 12516 3016 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 64 71 SW 14 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 65 73 SW 14 15794 14658 5158 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 66 74 W 14 15938 15095 5595 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 66 72 W 14 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 66 71 W 14 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 65 68 W 13 13767 11895 2395 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 62 63 W 13 11540 9813 313 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 13 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 10 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 S 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 57 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 62 S 6 11354 9500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 63 67 S 6 13183 11712 2212 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 65 71 SW 10 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 66 73 SW 10 15794 14658 5158 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 67 75 SW 10 16083 15524 6024 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 68 75 SW 14 16083 15524 6024 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 68 74 SW 14 15938 15095 5595 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 68 73 SW 14 15794 14658 5158 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 67 69 SW 14 14281 12516 3016 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 65 66 SW 14 12576 11528 2028 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 62 62 SW 14 11354 9500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 59 59 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 SW 14 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 58 S 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 S 6 11540 9813 313 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 63 67 S 6 13183 11712 2212 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 66 71 SW 12 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 67 73 SW 12 15794 14658 5158 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 67 74 SW 12 15938 15095 5595 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 68 74 SW 12 15938 15095 5595 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 68 73 SW 12 15794 14658 5158 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 68 72 SW 12 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 67 70 W 12 14733 13113 3613 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 64 65 W 12 11944 11343 1843 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 61 61 W 12 11169 9500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 SW 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 62 SW 7 11354 9500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 62 66 SW 7 12576 11528 2028 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 64 69 SW 9 14281 12516 3016 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 65 71 SW 9 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 65 71 SW 9 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 66 72 SW 9 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 67 72 SW 9 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 67 71 SW 9 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 66 68 SW 12 13767 11895 2395 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 63 64 SW 12 11725 11105 1605 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 SW 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 SW 12 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 NE 7 11169 9500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 62 66 NE 7 12576 11528 2028 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 65 70 NE 10 14733 13113 3613 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 65 71 NE 10 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 65 71 NE 10 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 65 71 NE 10 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 71 NE 10 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 67 71 NE 10 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 67 69 NW 9 14281 12516 3016 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 64 65 NW 9 11944 11343 1843 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 60 60 NW 9 9831 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 NW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 NW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 NW 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 7 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 E 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 57 E 6 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 63 E 6 11540 9813 313 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 63 68 E 6 13767 11895 2395 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 65 70 SE 8 14733 13113 3613 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 65 71 SE 8 15175 13689 4189 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 66 72 SE 8 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 66 72 SE 8 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 67 72 SE 8 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 68 72 SE 8 15609 14211 4711 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 67 69 W 9 14281 12516 3016 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 64 65 W 9 11944 11343 1843 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 9 9831 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 9 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 8 8570 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com