Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 31 31 NW 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 NW 2 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 NW 2 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 N 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 N 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 NE 2 7187 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 39 NE 2 9179 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 40 NE 2 9592 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 41 42 N 2 10051 9500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 41 42 N 2 10051 9500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 40 41 N 3 9822 9500 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 37 37 NE 5 7882 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 NE 5 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 31 31 N 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 29 29 NE 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 27 27 E 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 SW 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 SW 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 26 SW 5 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 26 SW 3 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 SW 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 29 29 SW 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 W 7 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 W 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 W 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 W 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 W 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 W 10 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 W 10 8545 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 40 W 10 9592 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 40 41 W 10 9822 9500 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 40 41 SW 12 9822 9500 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 39 40 SW 12 9592 9500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 37 37 SW 12 7882 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 35 35 SW 10 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 33 SW 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 31 31 SW 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 SW 16 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 SW 16 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 SW 16 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 SW 26 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 SW 26 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 SW 26 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 SW 28 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 SW 28 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 SW 28 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 SW 25 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 SW 25 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 SW 25 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 SW 23 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 SW 23 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 SW 23 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 34 NW 17 5675 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 35 NW 17 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 35 NW 17 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 34 35 N 10 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 33 33 N 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 31 31 N 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 29 29 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 27 27 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 25 25 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 24 NE 16 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 23 23 NE 16 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 23 23 NE 16 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 23 23 NE 18 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 NE 18 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 NE 18 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 NE 20 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 NE 20 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 NE 20 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 25 E 18 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 E 18 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 24 E 18 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 NE 17 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 25 25 NE 17 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 28 28 NE 17 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 30 31 NE 17 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 32 33 NE 17 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 33 35 NE 17 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 33 34 NE 14 5675 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 32 33 NE 14 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 31 31 NE 14 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 29 29 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 27 27 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 25 25 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 24 24 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 23 23 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 23 23 NE 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 23 23 E 12 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 24 24 E 12 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 E 12 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 26 26 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 27 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 25 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 E 10 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 38 E 8 8545 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 42 E 8 10051 9500 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 42 44 E 8 10458 9819 319 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 42 43 N 7 10279 9591 91 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 41 42 N 7 10051 9500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 39 39 N 7 9179 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 36 36 N 6 7187 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 33 33 N 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 31 31 N 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 29 S 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 28 28 S 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 S 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 SW 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 SW 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 SW 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 SW 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 SW 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SW 8 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 39 W 7 9179 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 41 W 7 9822 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 41 42 W 7 10051 9500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 41 42 NW 7 10051 9500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 40 41 NW 7 9822 9500 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 38 38 NW 7 8545 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 N 6 6453 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 32 32 N 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 N 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 NE 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 NE 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 25 25 NE 6 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 25 25 NE 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 26 26 NE 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 26 26 NE 8 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 SW 9 5200 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com