Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 42 42 S 8 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 38 39 S 8 7218 7190 190 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 44 46 S 13 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 51 55 S 15 9638 7883 883 Blue 23
10 AM Sun 56 62 S 18 13890 12993 5993 White 30
11 AM Sun 58 66 S 20 14734 14283 7283 White 34
12 Noon Sun 58 66 S 23 14734 14283 7283 White 34
1 PM Sun 60 68 S 24 15153 14829 7829 White 36
2 PM Sun 61 68 S 25 15153 14829 7829 White 36
3 PM Sun 61 66 S 25 14734 14283 7283 White 34
4 PM Sun 61 64 S 25 14314 13151 6151 White 32
5 PM Sun 61 62 SW 24 13890 12993 5993 White 30
6 PM Sun 60 60 SW 24 13092 12625 5625 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 23 12854 9415 2415 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 22 12126 8033 1033 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 51 51 SW 18 7737 7347 347 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 49 49 SW 14 7435 7311 311 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 14 7329 7276 276 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 S 15 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 43 43 S 15 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 45 45 S 15 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 43 43 S 14 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 42 42 S 15 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 13 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 41 41 S 14 7237 7208 208 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 38 38 S 15 7209 7180 180 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 39 39 S 15 7218 7190 190 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 41 41 SW 18 7237 7208 208 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 41 41 SW 18 7237 7208 208 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 42 42 SW 20 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 43 43 SW 21 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 43 44 SW 21 7277 7237 237 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 44 46 SW 20 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 45 47 SW 20 7329 7276 276 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 46 47 SW 20 7329 7276 276 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 47 48 SW 18 7347 7294 294 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 47 47 SW 17 7329 7276 276 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 45 45 SW 15 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 42 42 SW 12 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 40 40 SW 9 7227 7199 199 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 7 7199 7171 171 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 35 35 W 6 7181 7152 152 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 W 5 7171 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 34 34 W 3 7171 7149 149 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 34 34 SW 3 7171 7149 149 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 34 34 SW 3 7171 7149 149 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 33 33 SW 3 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 32 32 SW 3 7153 7149 149 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 SW 3 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 36 37 SW 3 7199 7171 171 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 41 43 SW 3 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 47 51 SW 5 7737 7347 347 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 51 56 SW 6 12126 8033 1033 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 55 61 W 7 13168 12818 5818 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 57 63 W 8 14102 13076 6076 White 31
1 PM Tue 59 65 W 9 14524 13397 6397 White 33
2 PM Tue 61 66 W 9 14734 14283 7283 White 34
3 PM Tue 62 66 W 9 14734 14283 7283 White 34
4 PM Tue 63 65 W 9 14524 13397 6397 White 33
5 PM Tue 63 64 W 9 14314 13151 6151 White 32
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 13890 12993 5993 White 30
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 7 13016 11854 4854 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 5 12126 8033 1033 Blue 24
9 PM Tue 52 52 W 3 7889 7431 431 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 48 48 W 2 7347 7294 294 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 45 45 W 1 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 W 1 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 1 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 42 42 N 2 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 42 42 N 3 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 40 40 N 5 7227 7199 199 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 7218 7190 190 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 39 39 N 6 7218 7190 190 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 48 49 NW 6 7435 7311 311 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 53 56 NW 6 12126 8033 1033 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 58 62 NW 6 13890 12993 5993 White 30
11 AM Wed 61 67 W 6 14943 14672 7672 White 35
12 Noon Wed 63 69 SW 6 15361 14985 7985 White 37
1 PM Wed 65 71 SW 6 15775 15328 8328 White 39
2 PM Wed 65 70 SW 7 15569 15141 8141 White 38
3 PM Wed 66 70 SW 7 15569 15141 8141 White 38
4 PM Wed 67 69 W 7 15361 14985 7985 White 37
5 PM Wed 67 68 W 7 15153 14829 7829 White 36
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 14734 14283 7283 White 34
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 14102 13076 6076 White 31
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 5 13016 11854 4854 Blue 27
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 3 8191 7732 732 Blue 22
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 2 7737 7347 347 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 47 47 NW 1 7329 7276 276 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 N 1 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 45 45 N 1 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 45 45 NE 2 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 44 44 E 2 7277 7237 237 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 43 43 E 2 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 3 7246 7218 218 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 43 43 NE 3 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 50 52 S 5 7889 7431 431 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 55 58 S 5 12854 9415 2415 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 60 65 SW 6 14524 13397 6397 White 33
11 AM Thu 63 70 SW 8 15569 15141 8141 White 38
12 Noon Thu 66 73 SW 10 16188 16188 9188 White 41
1 PM Thu 69 76 SW 12 16805 16805 9805 White 44
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 13 17010 17010 10010 White 45
3 PM Thu 71 75 SW 13 16599 16599 9599 White 43
4 PM Thu 72 75 SW 13 16599 16599 9599 White 43
5 PM Thu 71 72 SW 13 15981 15794 8794 White 40
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 12 15153 14829 7829 White 36
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 14314 13151 6151 White 32
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 7 12854 9415 2415 Blue 26
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 5 9638 7883 883 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 53 53 SW 2 8040 7581 581 Blue 21
11 PM Thu 51 51 SW 1 7737 7347 347 Blue 19
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 1 7435 7311 311 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 48 48 SW 1 7347 7294 294 Blue 16
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 2 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
3 AM Fri 45 45 S 3 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 3 7277 7237 237 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 7260 7227 227 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 46 46 S 5 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
8 AM Fri 51 53 S 5 8040 7581 581 Blue 21
9 AM Fri 56 60 S 5 13092 12625 5625 Blue 28
10 AM Fri 60 65 S 7 14524 13397 6397 White 33
11 AM Fri 64 71 S 9 15775 15328 8328 White 39
12 Noon Fri 66 74 S 12 16394 16394 9394 White 42
1 PM Fri 69 76 S 13 16805 16805 9805 White 44
2 PM Fri 71 78 SW 13 17214 17214 10214 White 46
3 PM Fri 71 76 SW 13 16805 16805 9805 White 44
4 PM Fri 72 75 SW 13 16599 16599 9599 White 43
5 PM Fri 71 72 SW 13 15981 15794 8794 White 40
6 PM Fri 69 69 SW 13 15361 14985 7985 White 37
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 12 14524 13397 6397 White 33
8 PM Fri 59 59 SW 10 13016 11854 4854 Blue 27
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 8 12126 8033 1033 Blue 24
10 PM Fri 54 54 SW 6 8191 7732 732 Blue 22
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 5 7889 7431 431 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 3 7586 7329 329 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 3 7347 7294 294 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 47 47 SW 3 7329 7276 276 Blue 15
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 3 7311 7259 259 Blue 14
4 AM Sat 45 45 SW 3 7294 7246 246 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 3 7277 7237 237 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com