Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 30 30 NE 15 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 29 29 NE 15 7241 7204 204 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 29 29 E 16 7241 7204 204 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 32 32 E 15 7279 7241 241 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 37 37 E 12 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 44 45 E 7 7878 7594 594 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 50 52 NE 3 8543 8349 1349 Blue 30
12 Noon Thu 53 55 NE 2 9175 8539 1539 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 56 59 W 2 9790 9345 2345 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 57 59 SW 3 9790 9345 2345 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 57 58 SW 5 9646 9156 2156 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 5 9358 8710 1710 Blue 34
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 5 8950 8475 1475 Blue 32
6 PM Thu 49 49 S 3 8353 8031 1031 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 44 44 SE 3 7784 7549 549 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 39 39 SE 5 7474 7359 359 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 37 37 SE 5 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 37 37 S 5 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 37 37 S 5 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 S 5 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 36 36 S 5 7360 7291 291 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 35 35 S 5 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 35 35 S 5 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 34 34 S 5 7304 7266 266 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 33 33 S 6 7291 7254 254 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 31 31 S 6 7266 7229 229 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 31 31 S 7 7266 7229 229 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 33 33 S 8 7291 7254 254 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 38 38 S 9 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 45 46 SW 10 8042 7687 687 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 51 52 SW 14 8543 8349 1349 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 54 56 SW 16 9358 8710 1710 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 56 58 SW 18 9646 9156 2156 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 56 57 SW 20 9502 8933 1933 Blue 35
3 PM Fri 55 56 SW 20 9358 8710 1710 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 53 53 SW 20 8725 8412 1412 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 50 50 SW 20 8416 8223 1223 Blue 28
6 PM Fri 47 47 SW 18 8226 7780 780 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 45 45 SW 17 7878 7594 594 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 42 42 SW 16 7597 7473 473 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 40 40 SW 16 7512 7397 397 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 39 39 S 17 7474 7359 359 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 39 39 S 18 7474 7359 359 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 S 20 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
1 AM Sat 38 38 S 20 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 38 38 S 22 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 37 37 S 23 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
4 AM Sat 37 37 S 23 7398 7303 303 Blue 15
5 AM Sat 36 36 S 24 7360 7291 291 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 35 35 S 23 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 33 33 S 23 7291 7254 254 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 33 33 S 23 7291 7254 254 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 34 34 S 22 7304 7266 266 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 35 35 SW 22 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 36 36 SW 22 7360 7291 291 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 36 36 SW 23 7360 7291 291 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 35 35 SW 23 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 35 35 SW 25 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 34 34 SW 24 7304 7266 266 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 33 33 SW 23 7291 7254 254 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 32 32 SW 22 7279 7241 241 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 30 30 SW 20 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 28 28 SW 17 7229 7192 192 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 26 26 W 16 7204 7167 167 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 25 25 W 15 7192 7154 154 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 24 24 W 14 7179 7149 149 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 23 23 W 14 7167 7149 149 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 23 23 W 13 7167 7149 149 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 22 22 W 12 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 W 12 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 W 12 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 W 12 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 21 21 NW 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 21 NW 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 20 20 NW 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 21 21 NW 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 24 NW 10 7179 7149 149 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 29 30 NW 9 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 33 35 NW 10 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 36 38 NW 10 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 37 40 NW 10 7512 7397 397 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 38 40 NW 12 7512 7397 397 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 39 40 NW 12 7512 7397 397 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 39 39 NW 12 7474 7359 359 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 38 38 NW 12 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 35 35 NW 10 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 32 32 NW 9 7279 7241 241 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 29 29 NW 8 7241 7204 204 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 28 28 N 6 7229 7192 192 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 27 27 N 5 7217 7179 179 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 27 27 N 5 7217 7179 179 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 NE 5 7204 7167 167 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 25 25 NE 5 7192 7154 154 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 23 23 NE 5 7167 7149 149 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 23 23 NE 5 7167 7149 149 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 23 23 NE 5 7167 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 22 22 NE 6 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 22 22 NE 5 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 22 22 NE 3 7155 7149 149 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 E 3 7179 7149 149 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 29 29 E 3 7241 7204 204 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 34 35 SE 3 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 39 40 SE 3 7512 7397 397 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 42 44 S 5 7784 7549 549 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 44 46 S 5 8042 7687 687 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 45 46 SW 5 8042 7687 687 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 45 46 SW 5 8042 7687 687 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 44 44 SW 6 7784 7549 549 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 42 42 W 6 7597 7473 473 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 5 7474 7359 359 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 35 35 W 3 7322 7279 279 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 32 32 NW 3 7279 7241 241 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 31 31 N 3 7266 7229 229 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 30 30 N 5 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 30 30 N 5 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 N 5 7241 7204 204 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 7229 7192 192 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 27 27 N 7 7217 7179 179 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 26 26 N 7 7204 7167 167 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 26 26 N 7 7204 7167 167 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 26 26 N 8 7204 7167 167 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 25 25 N 8 7192 7154 154 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 25 25 N 8 7192 7154 154 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 27 27 N 9 7217 7179 179 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 31 31 N 9 7266 7229 229 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 37 38 NE 10 7436 7322 322 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 43 45 NE 10 7878 7594 594 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 46 48 NE 10 8289 7874 874 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 48 50 NE 10 8416 8223 1223 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 49 51 NE 12 8479 8286 1286 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 49 50 NE 12 8416 8223 1223 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 8289 7874 874 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 47 47 NE 12 8226 7780 780 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 43 43 NE 10 7691 7511 511 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 39 39 NE 10 7474 7359 359 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 36 36 NE 10 7360 7291 291 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 34 34 NE 9 7304 7266 266 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 32 32 NE 10 7279 7241 241 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 32 32 NE 10 7279 7241 241 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 NE 10 7266 7229 229 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 30 30 NE 9 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 30 30 NE 9 7254 7216 216 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 9 7241 7204 204 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 28 28 NE 8 7229 7192 192 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com