Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 53 53 SE 3 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 53 53 S 3 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 55 56 S 3 7336 7299 299 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 64 66 SW 5 7455 7406 406 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 74 78 SW 7 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
11 AM Tue 78 83 SW 9 14455 12831 5831 Blue 40
12 Noon Tue 81 87 SW 12 16479 14942 7942 Blue 44
1 PM Tue 82 88 SW 14 16559 15937 8937 Blue 45
2 PM Tue 83 88 SW 15 16559 15937 8937 Blue 45
3 PM Tue 83 87 SW 15 16479 14942 7942 Blue 44
4 PM Tue 83 85 SW 15 16227 13870 6870 Blue 42
5 PM Tue 82 82 SW 15 13982 12233 5233 Blue 39
6 PM Tue 81 81 SW 14 13497 11653 4653 Blue 38
7 PM Tue 78 78 SW 13 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
8 PM Tue 73 73 SW 10 9411 8190 1190 Blue 30
9 PM Tue 68 68 SW 8 7525 7429 429 Blue 25
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 7 7417 7386 386 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 7 7396 7366 366 Blue 19
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 W 7 7376 7346 346 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 7366 7335 335 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 7346 7313 313 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 7346 7313 313 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 7336 7299 299 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 55 55 SW 5 7326 7284 284 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 7314 7270 270 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 53 53 SW 6 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 7314 7270 270 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 60 60 SW 9 7376 7346 346 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 66 67 SW 10 7479 7416 416 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 69 70 SW 12 8210 7479 479 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 71 72 SW 13 9017 7782 782 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 71 72 SW 13 9017 7782 782 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 72 73 SW 13 9411 8190 1190 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 72 73 SW 12 9411 8190 1190 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 9017 7782 782 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 71 71 SW 10 8616 7523 523 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 8210 7479 479 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 7525 7429 429 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 63 63 SW 8 7407 7376 376 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 7366 7335 335 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 7346 7313 313 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 7 7326 7284 284 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 W 6 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 50 50 W 6 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 50 50 W 6 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 49 49 NW 5 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 49 49 NW 5 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 48 48 NW 5 7227 7183 183 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 47 47 NW 3 7212 7169 169 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 58 59 N 2 7366 7335 335 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 67 70 N 2 8210 7479 479 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 70 74 NE 2 10919 8591 1591 Blue 31
12 Noon Thu 73 78 NE 2 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 74 79 NE 3 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
2 PM Thu 75 79 N 5 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 75 78 NW 6 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 75 76 NW 7 11402 9377 2377 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 10919 8591 1591 Blue 31
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 8 9411 8190 1190 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 8 8616 7523 523 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 7430 7396 396 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 7386 7356 356 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 7356 7325 325 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 5 7336 7299 299 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 3 7314 7270 270 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 51 51 W 2 7270 7226 226 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 2 7270 7226 226 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 2 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 3 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 48 48 W 3 7227 7183 183 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 47 47 W 3 7212 7169 169 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 58 60 W 6 7376 7346 346 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 67 70 W 7 8210 7479 479 Blue 27
11 AM Fri 71 75 W 7 11298 8987 1987 Blue 32
12 Noon Fri 74 79 W 8 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
1 PM Fri 75 80 W 9 12949 11490 4490 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 76 80 W 9 12949 11490 4490 Blue 37
3 PM Fri 76 79 W 10 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 76 78 W 10 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 11298 8987 1987 Blue 32
6 PM Fri 74 74 W 10 10919 8591 1591 Blue 31
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 9017 7782 782 Blue 29
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 7455 7406 406 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 7396 7366 366 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 7366 7335 335 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 57 57 W 5 7346 7313 313 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NW 3 7326 7284 284 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 53 53 NW 3 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 52 52 NW 3 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 3 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 7270 7226 226 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 7227 7183 183 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 59 61 E 5 7386 7356 356 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 68 71 SE 5 8616 7523 523 Blue 28
11 AM Sat 71 75 S 6 11298 8987 1987 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 74 79 S 6 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
1 PM Sat 75 80 S 6 12949 11490 4490 Blue 37
2 PM Sat 76 80 SW 6 12949 11490 4490 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 76 79 SW 6 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
4 PM Sat 76 78 SW 7 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
5 PM Sat 75 75 SW 7 11298 8987 1987 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 7 10919 8591 1591 Blue 31
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 6 9017 7782 782 Blue 29
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 5 7455 7406 406 Blue 23
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 3 7396 7366 366 Blue 19
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 3 7366 7335 335 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 2 7346 7313 313 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 1 7326 7284 284 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 1 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 52 52 W 1 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 52 52 SW 1 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 51 51 SW 1 7270 7226 226 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 50 50 SW 1 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 49 49 SW 2 7241 7198 198 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 48 48 SW 2 7227 7183 183 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 50 50 SW 3 7256 7212 212 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 59 61 SW 5 7386 7356 356 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 68 71 SW 6 8616 7523 523 Blue 28
11 AM Sun 71 75 SW 7 11298 8987 1987 Blue 32
12 Noon Sun 74 78 SW 8 11712 11282 4282 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 75 79 SW 9 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
2 PM Sun 76 80 SW 10 12949 11490 4490 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 76 79 SW 10 12344 11386 4386 Blue 36
4 PM Sun 76 77 SW 10 11506 10790 3790 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 75 75 SW 10 11298 8987 1987 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 10919 8591 1591 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 9017 7782 782 Blue 29
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 7455 7406 406 Blue 23
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 7 7396 7366 366 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 6 7366 7335 335 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 7346 7313 313 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 3 7326 7284 284 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 7299 7255 255 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 52 52 W 3 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 2 7285 7241 241 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 3 7270 7226 226 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 50 50 W 3 7256 7212 212 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com