Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 37 37 E 6 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 36 36 E 6 7262 7224 224 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 34 34 E 5 7241 7191 191 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 43 44 SE 3 7335 7308 308 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 53 55 S 5 7701 7427 427 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 59 62 S 8 12049 10947 3947 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 63 67 S 10 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 66 69 S 13 15817 12762 5762 Blue 40
2 PM Tue 68 70 SW 14 16134 14587 7587 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 69 70 SW 14 16134 14587 7587 Blue 41
4 PM Tue 68 68 SW 14 15594 12416 5416 Blue 39
5 PM Tue 67 67 SW 14 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 13 12481 11977 4977 Blue 36
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 10 11215 8793 1793 Blue 31
8 PM Tue 55 55 SW 7 7701 7427 427 Blue 26
9 PM Tue 49 49 S 5 7381 7353 353 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 48 48 S 3 7372 7344 344 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 45 45 S 3 7344 7317 317 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 S 3 7335 7308 308 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 42 42 SE 5 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 42 42 SE 5 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 39 39 S 6 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 6 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 47 48 S 6 7372 7344 344 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 55 58 S 8 10792 7696 696 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 60 64 SW 12 12311 11568 4568 Blue 35
12 Noon Wed 64 68 SW 14 15594 12416 5416 Blue 39
1 PM Wed 64 67 SW 15 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 65 67 SW 15 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 67 68 SW 15 15594 12416 5416 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 67 67 SW 15 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 66 66 SW 14 12871 12158 5158 Blue 37
6 PM Wed 63 63 SW 13 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 12 10972 7857 857 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 54 54 SW 9 7539 7412 412 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 49 49 SW 8 7381 7353 353 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 7 7363 7335 335 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 45 45 S 7 7344 7317 317 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 S 7 7335 7308 308 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 6 7326 7298 298 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 6 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 41 41 SW 6 7308 7280 280 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 39 39 SW 6 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 37 37 S 6 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 38 38 S 6 7280 7253 253 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 41 42 S 6 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 45 47 SW 7 7363 7335 335 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 51 55 SW 9 7701 7427 427 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 56 61 SW 12 11636 10767 3767 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 60 66 SW 14 12871 12158 5158 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 62 67 SW 15 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 63 67 SW 16 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 64 67 SW 16 15422 12287 5287 Blue 38
4 PM Thu 64 65 SW 17 12481 11977 4977 Blue 36
5 PM Thu 64 64 SW 18 12311 11568 4568 Blue 35
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 18 11636 10767 3767 Blue 32
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 16 8915 7534 534 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 51 51 SW 14 7412 7372 372 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 46 46 SW 12 7354 7326 326 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 43 43 SW 12 7326 7298 298 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 41 41 SW 12 7308 7280 280 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 W 12 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 38 38 W 9 7280 7253 253 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 37 37 W 9 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 35 35 W 9 7253 7208 208 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 34 34 W 9 7241 7191 191 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 33 33 W 10 7224 7175 175 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 34 34 W 10 7241 7191 191 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 36 37 W 10 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 40 42 W 9 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 45 49 W 9 7381 7353 353 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 50 55 W 8 7701 7427 427 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 55 61 W 8 11636 10767 3767 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 57 63 W 9 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 59 64 W 10 12311 11568 4568 Blue 35
3 PM Fri 60 63 W 12 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 61 63 W 12 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 11636 10767 3767 Blue 32
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 10972 7857 857 Blue 30
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 7701 7427 427 Blue 26
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 10 7381 7353 353 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 44 44 W 9 7335 7308 308 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 41 41 NW 9 7308 7280 280 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 39 39 NW 9 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NW 8 7280 7253 253 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 37 37 N 7 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 35 35 N 7 7253 7208 208 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 34 34 N 8 7241 7191 191 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 33 33 N 9 7224 7175 175 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 9 7208 7158 158 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 32 32 NE 10 7208 7158 158 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 33 33 N 10 7224 7175 175 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 35 35 NE 10 7253 7208 208 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 39 41 NE 10 7308 7280 280 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 44 47 NE 10 7363 7335 335 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 49 54 NE 10 7539 7412 412 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 54 59 NE 10 10972 7857 857 Blue 30
1 PM Sat 57 62 NE 10 12049 10947 3947 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 58 62 NE 10 12049 10947 3947 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 59 62 NE 10 12049 10947 3947 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 60 62 N 10 12049 10947 3947 Blue 33
5 PM Sat 60 60 N 10 11215 8793 1793 Blue 31
6 PM Sat 59 59 N 10 10972 7857 857 Blue 30
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 10 7701 7427 427 Blue 26
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 9 7381 7353 353 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 45 45 N 9 7344 7317 317 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 9 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 40 40 NE 9 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 9 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 38 38 NE 9 7280 7253 253 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 37 37 NE 9 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 35 35 NE 10 7253 7208 208 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 34 34 NE 10 7241 7191 191 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 33 33 NE 12 7224 7175 175 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 33 33 NE 12 7224 7175 175 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 34 34 NE 10 7241 7191 191 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 36 36 NE 10 7262 7224 224 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 39 41 NE 9 7308 7280 280 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 44 47 NE 8 7363 7335 335 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 49 53 E 8 7444 7396 396 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 54 59 E 7 10972 7857 857 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 57 62 E 8 12049 10947 3947 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 59 63 NE 8 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
3 PM Sun 60 63 NE 9 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 61 63 NE 9 12182 11152 4152 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 61 61 NE 10 11636 10767 3767 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 59 59 NE 10 10972 7857 857 Blue 30
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 10 7864 7443 443 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 9 7428 7381 381 Blue 23
9 PM Sun 48 48 NE 9 7372 7344 344 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 8 7335 7308 308 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 42 42 NE 7 7317 7289 289 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 NE 7 7308 7280 280 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 7299 7271 271 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 7 7289 7262 262 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 38 38 NE 7 7280 7253 253 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 7271 7241 241 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 7262 7224 224 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com