Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SE 3 5 7291 7260 260 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 5 7280 7250 250 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 3 5 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 5 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 5 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 5 7238 7200 200 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 5 7238 7200 200 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 5 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 61 62 SE 3 5 7360 7331 331 Blue 19
9 AM Thu 70 72 SW 8 12 11685 7673 673 Blue 29
10 AM Thu 74 78 WSW 11 17 12204 11917 4917 Blue 35
11 AM Thu 76 81 WSW 12 19 12956 12193 5193 Blue 38
12 Noon Thu 79 85 WSW 14 21 18016 14270 7270 Blue 42
1 PM Thu 79 85 WSW 14 23 18016 14270 7270 Blue 42
2 PM Thu 80 85 WSW 14 23 18016 14270 7270 Blue 42
3 PM Thu 80 84 WSW 14 23 17372 12880 5880 Blue 41
4 PM Thu 81 83 WSW 14 21 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
5 PM Thu 77 77 SW 13 20 12144 11823 4823 Blue 34
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 12 18 11778 8541 1541 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 12 7462 7374 374 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 11 7360 7331 331 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 59 59 SE 4 6 7331 7300 300 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 57 57 E 3 5 7311 7280 280 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 56 56 E 3 4 7301 7270 270 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 E 3 5 7280 7250 250 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 53 53 E 3 5 7270 7237 237 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 3 5 7270 7237 237 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 3 5 7270 7237 237 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 4 6 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 5 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 4 6 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 5 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 63 64 E 3 5 7374 7351 351 Blue 21
9 AM Fri 72 74 SSE 4 6 11833 9369 2369 Blue 31
10 AM Fri 76 79 SW 6 10 12264 12074 5074 Blue 36
11 AM Fri 77 81 WSW 9 13 12956 12193 5193 Blue 38
12 Noon Fri 78 83 WSW 10 16 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
1 PM Fri 79 83 SW 10 16 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
2 PM Fri 80 83 SW 10 16 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
3 PM Fri 80 82 WSW 10 14 14810 12253 5253 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 79 80 WSW 9 13 12596 12133 5133 Blue 37
5 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 8 12 12085 11768 4768 Blue 33
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 6 10 11685 7673 673 Blue 29
7 PM Fri 67 67 WNW 4 8 7462 7374 374 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 63 63 NW 3 5 7367 7341 341 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 60 60 NNW 2 4 7341 7310 310 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 59 59 NNE 2 3 7331 7300 300 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 58 58 NE 2 3 7321 7290 290 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NE 2 3 7301 7270 270 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 3 4 7291 7260 260 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 3 4 7280 7250 250 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 3 5 7270 7237 237 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 4 6 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 4 6 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 54 54 E 4 6 7280 7250 250 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 4 5 7311 7280 280 Blue 14
8 AM Sat 61 61 ESE 4 6 7351 7321 321 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 67 69 SE 5 9 7679 7389 389 Blue 26
10 AM Sat 72 75 S 8 12 11949 10282 3282 Blue 32
11 AM Sat 76 79 SSW 10 16 12264 12074 5074 Blue 36
12 Noon Sat 78 82 SSW 12 19 14810 12253 5253 Blue 39
1 PM Sat 79 83 SW 14 23 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 79 82 SW 16 24 14810 12253 5253 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 78 81 SW 16 24 12956 12193 5193 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 77 79 SW 14 21 12264 12074 5074 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 75 75 SW 12 19 11949 10282 3282 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 71 71 SW 10 16 9446 7565 565 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 65 65 SSW 9 13 7382 7360 360 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 61 61 SSW 6 10 7351 7321 321 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 5 8 7321 7290 290 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 4 6 7311 7280 280 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 56 56 S 3 5 7301 7270 270 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 S 3 5 7291 7260 260 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 53 53 SSE 3 5 7270 7237 237 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 52 52 SE 3 5 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 51 51 SE 3 5 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 50 50 SE 3 5 7238 7200 200 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 51 51 ESE 3 5 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 53 53 SE 4 6 7270 7237 237 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 57 57 S 5 9 7311 7280 280 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 62 63 S 8 11 7367 7341 341 Blue 20
9 AM Sun 67 69 SSW 10 14 7679 7389 389 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 72 76 SSW 12 18 12085 11768 4768 Blue 33
11 AM Sun 75 80 SW 14 21 12596 12133 5133 Blue 37
12 Noon Sun 77 83 SW 16 24 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 77 83 SW 17 26 16407 12524 5524 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 77 82 SW 18 27 14810 12253 5253 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 77 81 SW 18 27 12956 12193 5193 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 77 79 SW 18 26 12264 12074 5074 Blue 36
5 PM Sun 75 76 SW 17 25 12085 11768 4768 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 71 71 SW 16 23 9446 7565 565 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 66 66 SSW 13 20 7389 7367 367 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 61 61 SSW 12 18 7351 7321 321 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 58 58 SSW 11 16 7321 7290 290 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 56 56 SSW 10 14 7301 7270 270 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 9 13 7291 7260 260 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SSW 9 13 7280 7250 250 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 52 52 SSW 9 14 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 51 51 SSW 10 16 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 49 49 SSW 10 17 7225 7188 188 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 48 48 SSW 11 17 7213 7175 175 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 48 48 SSW 11 17 7213 7175 175 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 49 49 SSW 11 17 7225 7188 188 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 51 51 SW 11 16 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 55 56 SW 11 17 7301 7270 270 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 61 63 SW 12 19 7367 7341 341 Blue 20
10 AM Mon 67 71 SW 14 23 9446 7565 565 Blue 28
11 AM Mon 72 78 SW 17 26 12204 11917 4917 Blue 35
12 Noon Mon 74 80 SW 18 28 12596 12133 5133 Blue 37
1 PM Mon 75 81 SW 19 29 12956 12193 5193 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 76 82 SW 19 29 14810 12253 5253 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 76 80 SW 19 28 12596 12133 5133 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 75 77 SW 18 27 12144 11823 4823 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 73 74 SW 17 25 11833 9369 2369 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 69 69 SW 14 21 7679 7389 389 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 12 18 7367 7341 341 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 58 58 SW 10 14 7321 7290 290 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 55 55 S 8 11 7291 7260 260 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 52 52 ESE 6 10 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 51 51 ENE 5 9 7250 7212 212 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 ENE 5 10 7225 7188 188 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 48 48 ENE 6 11 7213 7175 175 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 8 12 7188 7150 150 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 44 44 NE 8 12 7163 7149 149 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 42 42 NE 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 NE 9 12 7151 7149 149 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 9 13 7188 7150 150 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 51 52 ENE 10 14 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 57 59 ENE 11 16 7331 7300 300 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 62 66 E 11 17 7389 7367 367 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 67 73 E 12 18 11778 8541 1541 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 70 76 ESE 12 19 12085 11768 4768 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 71 77 S 12 19 12144 11823 4823 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 72 78 SSW 12 19 12204 11917 4917 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 74 78 SW 11 18 12204 11917 4917 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 74 76 WSW 10 16 12085 11768 4768 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 72 73 WSW 9 13 11778 8541 1541 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 8 11 7569 7382 382 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 6 10 7351 7321 321 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 5 9 7301 7270 270 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 5 8 7260 7225 225 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 5 8 7238 7200 200 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com