Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 MAY 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SSW 11 16 9102 8243 1243 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 57 57 SSW 11 14 8525 7712 712 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 55 55 SSW 10 14 7992 7175 175 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 53 53 S 10 14 7453 7149 149 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 53 53 S 11 16 7453 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 51 51 S 12 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 13 19 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SSW 17 24 7992 7175 175 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 59 61 SSW 18 26 9740 8769 1769 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 63 67 SSW 20 28 17483 16909 9909 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 65 71 SSW 21 29 18055 17700 10700 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 67 75 SSW 23 36 19034 18207 11207 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 69 78 SW 24 39 20495 18983 11983 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 69 78 SW 25 40 20495 18983 11983 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 70 77 SW 25 41 19830 18726 11726 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 70 75 SW 26 41 19034 18207 11207 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 70 73 SW 25 41 18514 17943 10943 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 68 69 SW 24 39 17862 17223 10223 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 23 32 17483 16909 9909 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 20 28 16919 9710 2710 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 18 25 9740 8769 1769 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 58 58 SW 16 23 8789 7978 978 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 13 19 8259 7444 444 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 53 53 SSW 12 13 7453 7149 149 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SSW 11 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 10 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 SSW 9 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 SSW 8 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SSW 6 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SSW 6 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SSW 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 SSW 6 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 53 SW 8 10 7453 7149 149 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 56 59 SW 10 12 9102 8243 1243 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 59 64 SW 11 14 16919 9710 2710 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 62 69 SW 13 21 17862 17223 10223 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 64 72 SW 14 23 18252 17846 10846 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 66 74 SW 14 24 18774 18039 11039 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 67 74 SW 14 24 18774 18039 11039 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 68 73 SW 14 24 18514 17943 10943 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 68 71 SW 14 24 18055 17700 10700 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 67 68 SW 13 23 17748 16995 9995 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 12 16 17025 16656 9656 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 13 17 9740 8769 1769 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 58 58 SW 12 16 8789 7978 978 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 55 55 SW 10 11 7992 7175 175 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 8 9 7453 7149 149 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 6 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SSW 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 S 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 S 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 S 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 SSE 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 S 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 58 SSW 8 10 8789 7978 978 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 60 64 SSW 9 12 16919 9710 2710 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 64 70 SW 11 14 17958 17450 10450 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 67 74 SW 13 21 18774 18039 11039 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 69 77 SW 14 24 19830 18726 11726 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 70 77 SW 16 25 19830 18726 11726 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 71 77 SW 16 25 19830 18726 11726 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 72 77 SW 16 26 19830 18726 11726 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 71 74 SW 17 26 18774 18039 11039 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 70 71 SW 16 25 18055 17700 10700 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 14 18 17483 16909 9909 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 12 16 16919 9710 2710 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 10 12 9434 8507 1507 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 57 57 SW 8 9 8525 7712 712 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 6 8 7723 7149 149 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 5 6 7182 7149 149 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SSW 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SSW 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SSW 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 S 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 S 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SSW 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 6 7992 7175 175 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 60 62 WSW 5 8 16678 9073 2073 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 64 68 WSW 8 10 17748 16995 9995 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 67 73 WSW 10 12 18514 17943 10943 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 70 78 WSW 11 18 20495 18983 11983 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 72 80 WSW 12 19 21730 19679 12679 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 73 81 WSW 12 20 22308 20337 13337 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 74 81 WSW 12 20 22308 20337 13337 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 75 80 WSW 13 21 21730 19679 12679 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 75 78 SW 13 23 20495 18983 11983 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 74 75 SW 13 21 19034 18207 11207 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 71 71 SW 12 14 18055 17700 10700 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 67 67 SW 10 12 17483 16909 9909 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 63 63 SW 8 10 16841 9401 2401 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 8 9434 8507 1507 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 57 57 SW 5 6 8525 7712 712 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 55 55 SW 5 6 7992 7175 175 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 WSW 5 6 7453 7149 149 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 5 6 7182 7149 149 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NNW 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 5 6 7182 7149 149 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 6 8 8259 7444 444 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 61 63 WSW 8 10 16841 9401 2401 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 65 69 WSW 9 11 17862 17223 10223 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 70 76 WSW 10 13 19291 18467 11467 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 73 80 WSW 12 19 21730 19679 12679 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 75 83 WSW 13 21 23402 21560 14560 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 76 84 WSW 14 24 23922 22133 15133 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 77 84 WSW 16 25 23922 22133 15133 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 78 83 WSW 17 26 23402 21560 14560 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 78 81 WSW 17 26 22308 20337 13337 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 77 78 WSW 16 25 20495 18983 11983 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 13 18 18774 18039 11039 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 12 14 17958 17450 10450 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 66 66 WSW 10 12 17255 16831 9831 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 8 9 16841 9401 2401 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 9 9102 8243 1243 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 57 57 W 6 8 8525 7712 712 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 5 6 8259 7444 444 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 5 6 7992 7175 175 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 5 6 7723 7149 149 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 8 7182 7149 149 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 ENE 8 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 ENE 8 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 ENE 8 9 7723 7149 149 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 58 58 ENE 8 9 8789 7978 978 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 63 65 ENE 8 10 17025 16656 9656 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 68 72 ESE 9 11 18252 17846 10846 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 73 79 SSW 10 13 21126 19239 12239 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 77 85 WSW 11 18 24661 22686 15686 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 80 88 WSW 12 19 24938 24280 17280 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 81 89 WSW 12 20 25021 24739 17739 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 82 89 WSW 12 20 25021 24739 17739 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 82 87 WSW 12 20 24854 23735 16735 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 82 85 WSW 12 20 24661 22686 15686 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 80 81 WSW 12 19 22308 20337 13337 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 13 19830 18726 11726 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 11 18514 17943 10943 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 8 10 17862 17223 10223 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 66 66 SSW 6 8 17255 16831 9831 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 63 63 S 5 6 16841 9401 2401 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com