Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 31 31 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 45 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 53 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 59 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 63 NE 6 15796 15582 8582 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 62 67 E 6 16874 15881 8881 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 65 70 NE 5 18483 16762 9762 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 66 69 NE 5 17689 16441 9441 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 67 69 NE 5 17689 16441 9441 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 66 66 NE 5 16550 15757 8757 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 64 64 N 5 15921 15640 8640 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 60 60 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 52 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 60 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 65 E 7 16223 15699 8699 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 65 71 SE 6 19019 17080 10080 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 67 72 SE 6 19314 17497 10497 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 69 73 S 6 19606 18049 11049 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 70 72 S 6 19314 17497 10497 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 70 71 S 7 19019 17080 10080 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 69 69 SW 7 17689 16441 9441 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 67 67 SW 6 16874 15881 8881 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 3 15796 15582 8582 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 1 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 SE 5 16223 15699 8699 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 66 68 SE 5 17195 16116 9116 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 68 70 S 5 18483 16762 9762 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 69 71 S 5 19019 17080 10080 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 69 70 S 3 18483 16762 9762 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 67 67 E 2 16874 15881 8881 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 65 65 NE 5 16223 15699 8699 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 62 62 NE 6 15717 14767 7767 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 59 59 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 55 NE 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 61 E 3 15658 7149 149 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 62 66 E 3 16550 15757 8757 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 65 70 SE 3 18483 16762 9762 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 67 71 SE 2 19019 17080 10080 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 69 72 SW 1 19314 17497 10497 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 69 71 W 2 19019 17080 10080 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 69 70 W 3 18483 16762 9762 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 3 17195 16116 9116 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 16223 15699 8699 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 61 61 NW 3 15658 7149 149 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 E 5 15658 7149 149 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 63 67 E 3 16874 15881 8881 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 67 72 SE 3 19314 17497 10497 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 70 75 SE 2 20567 19185 12185 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 72 76 SE 2 21149 19475 12475 White 18
3 PM Fri 72 75 S 3 20567 19185 12185 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 71 72 S 3 19314 17497 10497 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 70 70 S 3 18483 16762 9762 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 67 67 S 3 16874 15881 8881 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 63 63 S 3 15796 15582 8582 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 59 59 S 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 SE 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 60 SE 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 66 S 3 16550 15757 8757 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 67 71 S 5 19019 17080 10080 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 70 75 S 6 20567 19185 12185 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 72 77 S 6 21346 19762 12762 White 19
2 PM Sat 73 77 SW 7 21346 19762 12762 White 19
3 PM Sat 73 76 SW 7 21149 19475 12475 White 18
4 PM Sat 73 74 SW 7 19937 18892 11892 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 19314 17497 10497 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 8 17689 16441 9441 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 16223 15699 8699 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com