Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 7 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 53 54 S 10 7298 7273 273 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 61 63 S 12 7575 7371 371 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 67 71 SW 13 13072 12636 5636 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 14 13788 13131 6131 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 72 78 SW 15 15171 13674 6674 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 73 79 SW 16 15576 14155 7155 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 74 79 SW 17 15576 14155 7155 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 76 79 SW 17 15576 14155 7155 Blue 37
4 PM Wed 75 77 SW 17 14747 13313 6313 Blue 35
5 PM Wed 74 74 SW 17 13337 13056 6056 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 17 13237 12982 5982 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 16 12997 12202 5202 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 15 11397 7569 569 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 13 7466 7355 355 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 10 7371 7324 324 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 58 58 S 9 7340 7307 307 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 S 8 7315 7290 290 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 56 56 S 8 7315 7290 290 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 55 55 S 8 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 55 55 S 8 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 55 55 S 9 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 10 7298 7273 273 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 53 53 S 12 7290 7265 265 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 13 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 54 55 S 14 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 60 62 S 16 7466 7355 355 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 66 70 S 17 12997 12202 5202 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 69 74 S 18 13337 13056 6056 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 71 77 SW 20 14747 13313 6313 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 73 79 SW 21 15576 14155 7155 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 74 79 SW 21 15576 14155 7155 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 75 79 SW 22 15576 14155 7155 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 74 76 SW 22 14274 13216 6216 Blue 34
5 PM Thu 72 72 SW 22 13146 12886 5886 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 70 70 SW 21 12997 12202 5202 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 20 12356 7794 794 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 17 7802 7387 387 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 61 61 SW 16 7387 7339 339 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 14 7356 7315 315 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 12 7324 7298 298 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 10 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 54 54 SW 9 7298 7273 273 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 53 53 SW 9 7290 7265 265 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 9 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 9 7265 7239 239 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 49 49 SW 9 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 49 49 SW 9 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 50 50 SW 9 7265 7239 239 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 53 54 SW 10 7298 7273 273 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 56 58 SW 10 7340 7307 307 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 60 64 SW 12 7802 7387 387 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 64 69 SW 13 12923 11212 4212 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 67 73 SW 13 13237 12982 5982 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 70 76 SW 14 14274 13216 6216 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 71 76 SW 14 14274 13216 6216 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 72 76 SW 14 14274 13216 6216 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 72 74 SW 15 13337 13056 6056 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 71 71 SW 14 13072 12636 5636 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 69 69 SW 14 12923 11212 4212 Blue 27
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 13 10516 7464 464 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 10 7387 7339 339 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 8 7324 7298 298 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 54 54 S 7 7298 7273 273 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 5 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 S 3 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 7265 7239 239 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 7265 7239 239 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 49 49 S 3 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 47 47 S 5 7240 7206 206 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 46 46 S 5 7231 7179 179 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 46 46 S 6 7231 7179 179 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 48 48 S 6 7248 7223 223 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 51 52 S 7 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 55 57 S 7 7324 7298 298 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 59 63 S 7 7575 7371 371 Blue 21
11 AM Sat 64 69 SW 8 12923 11212 4212 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 68 74 SW 8 13337 13056 6056 Blue 32
1 PM Sat 71 77 SW 8 14747 13313 6313 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 72 77 SW 9 14747 13313 6313 Blue 35
3 PM Sat 73 77 SW 9 14747 13313 6313 Blue 35
4 PM Sat 73 75 SW 9 13788 13131 6131 Blue 33
5 PM Sat 73 73 SW 9 13237 12982 5982 Blue 31
6 PM Sat 71 71 SW 9 13072 12636 5636 Blue 29
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 8 12356 7794 794 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 7 7466 7355 355 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 58 58 SW 6 7340 7307 307 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 55 55 SW 5 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 53 53 SW 3 7290 7265 265 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SW 2 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 2 7265 7239 239 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 49 49 S 2 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 49 49 S 2 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 48 48 S 3 7248 7223 223 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 47 47 S 3 7240 7206 206 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 5 7240 7206 206 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 49 49 S 5 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 52 53 S 6 7290 7265 265 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 56 58 S 6 7340 7307 307 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 60 64 S 7 7802 7387 387 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 65 70 SW 7 12997 12202 5202 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 69 75 SW 8 13788 13131 6131 Blue 33
1 PM Sun 72 78 SW 9 15171 13674 6674 Blue 36
2 PM Sun 73 78 SW 9 15171 13674 6674 Blue 36
3 PM Sun 74 78 SW 10 15171 13674 6674 Blue 36
4 PM Sun 74 76 SW 12 14274 13216 6216 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 73 73 SW 12 13237 12982 5982 Blue 31
6 PM Sun 71 71 SW 12 13072 12636 5636 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 10 12685 10479 3479 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 10 7802 7387 387 Blue 22
9 PM Sun 60 60 S 9 7371 7324 324 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 57 57 S 7 7324 7298 298 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 55 55 S 7 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 S 6 7290 7265 265 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 52 52 S 7 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 51 51 S 8 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 51 51 S 8 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 51 51 S 9 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 10 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 54 54 S 10 7298 7273 273 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 56 56 SW 12 7315 7290 290 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 59 60 SW 12 7371 7324 324 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 62 63 SW 13 7575 7371 371 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 65 67 SW 13 12356 7794 794 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 67 69 SW 14 12923 11212 4212 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 69 70 SW 14 12997 12202 5202 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 69 70 SW 15 12997 12202 5202 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 69 69 SW 15 12923 11212 4212 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 67 67 SW 15 12356 7794 794 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 65 65 SW 15 10516 7464 464 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 14 7466 7355 355 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 13 7371 7324 324 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 12 7324 7298 298 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 55 55 SW 10 7307 7281 281 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 7290 7265 265 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SW 8 7282 7256 256 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 51 51 SW 8 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 51 51 SW 9 7273 7248 248 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 50 50 S 9 7265 7239 239 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 49 49 S 10 7256 7231 231 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 12 7248 7223 223 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com