Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 3 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 37 37 N 3 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 3 7295 7263 263 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 40 40 N 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 50 51 N 5 7448 7417 417 Blue 28
10 AM Wed 56 58 NW 5 8218 7606 606 Blue 35
11 AM Wed 61 64 W 6 9124 8660 1660 Blue 41
12 Noon Wed 64 67 W 7 10128 9112 2112 Blue 44
1 PM Wed 65 68 W 7 10341 9632 2632 Blue 45
2 PM Wed 66 68 W 7 10341 9632 2632 Blue 45
3 PM Wed 66 67 W 7 10128 9112 2112 Blue 44
4 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 9655 8806 1806 Blue 42
5 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 8523 8007 1007 Blue 37
6 PM Wed 52 52 W 5 7459 7427 427 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 46 46 N 2 7397 7366 366 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 42 42 N 1 7356 7325 325 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 41 41 NE 1 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 39 39 NE 1 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 37 37 NE 2 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NE 2 7295 7263 263 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 3 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 2 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 2 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 2 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
7 AM Thu 36 36 NE 3 7295 7263 263 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 7448 7417 417 Blue 28
10 AM Thu 59 60 S 5 8523 8007 1007 Blue 37
11 AM Thu 64 65 SW 5 9655 8806 1806 Blue 42
12 Noon Thu 65 66 SW 6 9892 8959 1959 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 65 66 SW 7 9892 8959 1959 Blue 43
2 PM Thu 65 66 SW 7 9892 8959 1959 Blue 43
3 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 9124 8660 1660 Blue 41
4 PM Thu 62 62 SW 7 8817 8369 1369 Blue 39
5 PM Thu 59 59 SW 6 8378 7807 807 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 7482 7448 448 Blue 31
7 PM Thu 48 48 SE 2 7417 7386 386 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 44 44 E 1 7376 7345 345 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 41 41 E 1 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 40 40 E 2 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 40 40 E 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 5 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
1 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 7356 7325 325 Blue 19
2 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 7356 7325 325 Blue 19
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 7356 7325 325 Blue 19
4 AM Fri 41 41 E 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
6 AM Fri 39 39 E 3 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
7 AM Fri 40 40 E 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 7356 7325 325 Blue 19
9 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 7417 7386 386 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 55 55 S 6 7612 7459 459 Blue 32
11 AM Fri 61 61 SW 7 8669 8208 1208 Blue 38
12 Noon Fri 64 65 SW 7 9655 8806 1806 Blue 42
1 PM Fri 65 66 SW 7 9892 8959 1959 Blue 43
2 PM Fri 65 66 SW 7 9892 8959 1959 Blue 43
3 PM Fri 64 64 SW 7 9124 8660 1660 Blue 41
4 PM Fri 63 63 SW 7 8971 8515 1515 Blue 40
5 PM Fri 60 60 S 6 8523 8007 1007 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 55 55 S 5 7612 7459 459 Blue 32
7 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 7427 7396 396 Blue 26
8 PM Fri 44 44 S 2 7376 7345 345 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 41 41 SE 2 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 40 40 E 2 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 40 40 E 2 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 E 2 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 41 41 NE 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
2 AM Sat 41 41 NE 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
3 AM Sat 41 41 NE 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 3 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 3 7315 7284 284 Blue 15
7 AM Sat 38 38 NE 5 7315 7284 284 Blue 15
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 5 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 7407 7376 376 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 55 56 NW 6 7815 7470 470 Blue 33
11 AM Sat 61 63 W 7 8971 8515 1515 Blue 40
12 Noon Sat 64 66 W 8 9892 8959 1959 Blue 43
1 PM Sat 65 67 W 9 10128 9112 2112 Blue 44
2 PM Sat 65 67 W 10 10128 9112 2112 Blue 44
3 PM Sat 64 65 W 10 9655 8806 1806 Blue 42
4 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 8971 8515 1515 Blue 40
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 10 8378 7807 807 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 54 54 NW 9 7482 7448 448 Blue 31
7 PM Sat 49 49 N 7 7427 7396 396 Blue 26
8 PM Sat 44 44 N 6 7376 7345 345 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 8 7356 7325 325 Blue 19
10 PM Sat 41 41 NE 10 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
11 PM Sat 40 40 NE 13 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 13 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
1 AM Sun 41 41 NE 13 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
2 AM Sun 40 40 NE 13 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 39 39 NE 14 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
4 AM Sun 38 38 NE 15 7315 7284 284 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 37 37 NE 15 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 14 7295 7263 263 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 37 37 NE 12 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 39 39 NE 10 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 10 7387 7356 356 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 50 52 NE 10 7459 7427 427 Blue 29
11 AM Sun 56 59 NE 10 8378 7807 807 Blue 36
12 Noon Sun 60 63 NE 10 8971 8515 1515 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 62 65 NE 10 9655 8806 1806 Blue 42
2 PM Sun 62 64 N 10 9124 8660 1660 Blue 41
3 PM Sun 61 62 N 9 8817 8369 1369 Blue 39
4 PM Sun 59 59 N 8 8378 7807 807 Blue 36
5 PM Sun 56 56 N 7 7815 7470 470 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 7448 7417 417 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 7387 7356 356 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 40 40 N 6 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 38 38 N 6 7315 7284 284 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 36 36 NE 7 7295 7263 263 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 37 37 NE 7 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NE 7 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 39 39 NE 8 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 8 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
3 AM Mon 39 39 NE 8 7325 7294 294 Blue 16
4 AM Mon 38 38 NE 7 7315 7284 284 Blue 15
5 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
6 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 7295 7263 263 Blue 13
7 AM Mon 37 37 NE 8 7305 7274 274 Blue 14
8 AM Mon 40 40 NE 8 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
9 AM Mon 47 48 NE 8 7417 7386 386 Blue 25
10 AM Mon 54 56 NE 8 7815 7470 470 Blue 33
11 AM Mon 61 64 N 8 9124 8660 1660 Blue 41
12 Noon Mon 64 67 N 8 10128 9112 2112 Blue 44
1 PM Mon 65 68 NW 8 10341 9632 2632 Blue 45
2 PM Mon 65 67 NW 8 10128 9112 2112 Blue 44
3 PM Mon 64 65 NW 7 9655 8806 1806 Blue 42
4 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 8971 8515 1515 Blue 40
5 PM Mon 60 60 W 5 8523 8007 1007 Blue 37
6 PM Mon 55 55 SW 3 7612 7459 459 Blue 32
7 PM Mon 49 49 SW 3 7427 7396 396 Blue 26
8 PM Mon 44 44 SW 3 7376 7345 345 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 41 41 SW 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 40 40 SW 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 40 40 SW 3 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 SW 3 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
1 AM Tue 41 41 SW 5 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
2 AM Tue 41 41 SW 5 7346 7315 315 Blue 18
3 AM Tue 40 40 SW 5 7335 7305 305 Blue 17
4 AM Tue 39 39 SW 5 7325 7294 294 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com