Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 27 27 NE 8 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 26 26 NE 9 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 27 27 NE 9 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
8 AM Sun 30 30 NE 10 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 38 38 NE 12 7390 7360 360 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 46 47 E 12 7503 7458 458 Blue 33
11 AM Sun 49 51 E 12 7803 7544 544 Blue 37
12 Noon Sun 51 54 E 12 9314 7800 800 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 52 54 E 12 9314 7800 800 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 54 56 E 12 10484 8655 1655 Blue 42
3 PM Sun 53 54 E 12 9314 7800 800 Blue 40
4 PM Sun 52 52 E 12 8052 7629 629 Blue 38
5 PM Sun 47 47 E 12 7503 7458 458 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 41 41 E 12 7420 7389 389 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 37 37 E 12 7380 7350 350 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 36 36 E 12 7370 7341 341 Blue 22
9 PM Sun 35 35 E 12 7360 7331 331 Blue 21
10 PM Sun 34 34 E 10 7351 7321 321 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 33 33 E 10 7341 7311 311 Blue 19
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 E 10 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
1 AM Mon 32 32 E 10 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
2 AM Mon 32 32 E 10 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
3 AM Mon 31 31 E 9 7321 7292 292 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 30 30 E 9 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
5 AM Mon 30 30 E 9 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
6 AM Mon 28 28 E 9 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
7 AM Mon 27 27 E 9 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 29 29 E 8 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 37 37 E 8 7380 7350 350 Blue 23
10 AM Mon 44 45 E 7 7471 7433 433 Blue 31
11 AM Mon 48 50 SE 5 7717 7503 503 Blue 36
12 Noon Mon 51 53 SE 3 8697 7714 714 Blue 39
1 PM Mon 52 54 SW 3 9314 7800 800 Blue 40
2 PM Mon 52 54 W 5 9314 7800 800 Blue 40
3 PM Mon 51 52 W 3 8052 7629 629 Blue 38
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 2 7632 7483 483 Blue 35
5 PM Mon 46 46 N 2 7483 7445 445 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 41 41 NE 2 7420 7389 389 Blue 27
7 PM Mon 36 36 E 3 7370 7341 341 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 32 32 E 3 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 30 30 E 3 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 29 29 E 3 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 29 29 E 3 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 E 3 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 29 29 NE 3 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 28 28 NE 3 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 28 28 NE 3 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 28 28 NE 3 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
5 AM Tue 27 27 NE 3 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 26 26 NE 3 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
7 AM Tue 26 26 NE 5 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
8 AM Tue 28 28 NE 5 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 35 35 NE 5 7360 7331 331 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 43 44 NE 5 7458 7420 420 Blue 30
11 AM Tue 50 52 NE 5 8052 7629 629 Blue 38
12 Noon Tue 53 56 NE 6 10484 8655 1655 Blue 42
1 PM Tue 54 56 NE 6 10484 8655 1655 Blue 42
2 PM Tue 52 54 NE 7 9314 7800 800 Blue 40
3 PM Tue 51 52 NE 7 8052 7629 629 Blue 38
4 PM Tue 49 49 NE 8 7632 7483 483 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 46 46 NE 9 7483 7445 445 Blue 32
6 PM Tue 42 42 NE 9 7433 7399 399 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 38 38 NE 10 7390 7360 360 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 34 34 NE 10 7351 7321 321 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 32 32 NE 12 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 31 31 NE 12 7321 7292 292 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 30 30 NE 12 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 NE 12 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 30 30 NE 12 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 29 29 NE 12 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 10 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 28 28 NE 10 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 27 27 NE 10 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 26 26 NE 9 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 28 28 NE 8 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 32 32 NE 8 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 38 39 NE 8 7399 7370 370 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 43 45 NE 8 7471 7433 433 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 46 48 NE 9 7546 7470 470 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 47 49 NE 9 7632 7483 483 Blue 35
2 PM Wed 47 49 NE 10 7632 7483 483 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 45 46 NE 10 7483 7445 445 Blue 32
4 PM Wed 43 43 NE 9 7446 7409 409 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 40 40 NE 9 7409 7380 380 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 35 35 NE 9 7360 7331 331 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 30 30 NE 10 7311 7282 282 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 27 27 NE 10 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 24 24 NE 10 7253 7223 223 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 23 23 NE 10 7243 7213 213 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 23 23 NE 10 7243 7213 213 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 NE 12 7243 7213 213 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 22 22 NE 12 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 22 22 NE 13 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 22 22 NE 13 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 21 21 NE 12 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 21 21 NE 12 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 19 19 NE 12 7203 7171 171 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 19 19 NE 12 7203 7171 171 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 21 21 NE 12 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 25 25 NE 12 7263 7233 233 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 31 32 NE 13 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 36 38 NE 13 7390 7360 360 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 40 42 NE 13 7433 7399 399 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 42 44 NE 13 7458 7420 420 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 42 44 NE 13 7458 7420 420 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 41 42 NE 12 7433 7399 399 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 39 39 NE 10 7399 7370 370 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 36 36 NE 9 7370 7341 341 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 32 32 NE 8 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 28 28 NE 8 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 25 25 NE 8 7263 7233 233 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 23 23 NE 8 7243 7213 213 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 22 22 NE 9 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 22 22 NE 9 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 22 22 NE 9 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 21 21 NE 10 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 21 21 NE 10 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 21 21 NE 9 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 22 22 NE 9 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 21 21 NE 8 7224 7192 192 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 20 20 NE 8 7214 7181 181 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 20 20 NE 8 7214 7181 181 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 22 22 NE 8 7233 7203 203 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 28 28 NE 9 7292 7262 262 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 36 37 NE 9 7380 7350 350 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 42 44 NE 10 7458 7420 420 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 46 48 NE 10 7546 7470 470 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 48 50 NE 10 7717 7503 503 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 48 50 NE 10 7717 7503 503 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 47 48 NE 9 7546 7470 470 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 45 45 NE 9 7471 7433 433 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 41 41 NE 8 7420 7389 389 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 37 37 NE 8 7380 7350 350 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 32 32 NE 8 7331 7301 301 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 29 29 NE 8 7302 7272 272 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 27 27 NE 8 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 27 27 NE 9 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 27 27 NE 9 7282 7253 253 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 NE 9 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 26 26 NE 10 7272 7243 243 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 25 25 NE 10 7263 7233 233 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 25 25 NE 10 7263 7233 233 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 25 25 NE 9 7263 7233 233 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com