Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 64 64 N 1 7321 7287 287 Blue 12
7 AM Tue 60 60 NW 1 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 64 66 W 2 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 76 80 SW 3 11579 8759 1759 Blue 28
10 AM Tue 83 88 SW 7 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
11 AM Tue 85 92 SW 10 19872 18396 11396 Blue 40
12 Noon Tue 88 96 SW 14 20605 19943 12943 Blue 44
1 PM Tue 89 97 SW 16 21325 20071 13071 Blue 45
2 PM Tue 91 98 SW 18 21998 20199 13199 Blue 46
3 PM Tue 91 96 SW 20 20605 19943 12943 Blue 44
4 PM Tue 92 96 SW 20 20605 19943 12943 Blue 44
5 PM Tue 91 93 SW 18 20001 18921 11921 Blue 41
6 PM Tue 91 91 SW 17 19707 17816 10816 Blue 39
7 PM Tue 90 90 SW 16 19135 17211 10211 Blue 38
8 PM Tue 88 88 SW 15 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
9 PM Tue 80 80 SW 13 11579 8759 1759 Blue 28
10 PM Tue 73 73 SW 10 7452 7387 387 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 70 70 SW 8 7387 7354 354 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SW 6 7365 7332 332 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 5 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 3 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 7332 7299 299 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 63 63 S 3 7310 7276 276 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 62 62 S 5 7299 7265 265 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 61 61 S 6 7288 7254 254 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 7 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 64 66 S 8 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 72 75 SW 9 7650 7427 427 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 76 81 SW 10 11918 9759 2759 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 79 85 SW 13 14339 12195 5195 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 82 89 SW 14 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
1 PM Wed 84 91 SW 15 19707 17816 10816 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 85 91 SW 17 19707 17816 10816 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 86 91 SW 17 19707 17816 10816 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 86 89 SW 17 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 86 88 SW 16 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 15 14339 12195 5195 Blue 33
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 12254 10658 3658 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 13 10766 7777 777 Blue 27
9 PM Wed 75 75 SW 10 7650 7427 427 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 70 70 SW 8 7387 7354 354 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 67 67 SW 5 7354 7321 321 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 2 7321 7287 287 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 62 62 SW 2 7299 7265 265 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 2 7288 7254 254 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 2 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 3 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 57 57 SW 3 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 3 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 64 66 SW 7 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 69 72 SW 8 7428 7376 376 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 74 79 SW 9 10766 7777 777 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 78 84 SW 10 13831 11863 4863 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 81 87 SW 10 17429 13719 6719 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 83 89 SW 12 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 84 90 SW 12 19135 17211 10211 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 85 89 SW 13 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 86 89 SW 13 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
5 PM Thu 86 88 SW 13 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 85 85 SW 13 14339 12195 5195 Blue 33
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 12 13035 11468 4468 Blue 31
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 9 10766 7777 777 Blue 27
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 8 7519 7402 402 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 6 7376 7343 343 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 65 65 SW 5 7332 7299 299 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 3 7288 7254 254 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 2 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 2 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 2 7220 7167 167 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 7220 7167 167 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 60 60 W 3 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 65 67 W 5 7354 7321 321 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 71 74 W 6 7519 7402 402 Blue 22
10 AM Fri 76 81 SW 7 11918 9759 2759 Blue 29
11 AM Fri 80 86 SW 8 16790 12783 5783 Blue 34
12 Noon Fri 82 88 SW 9 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
1 PM Fri 84 90 SW 10 19135 17211 10211 Blue 38
2 PM Fri 85 90 SW 10 19135 17211 10211 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 86 90 SW 12 19135 17211 10211 Blue 38
4 PM Fri 87 89 SW 12 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
5 PM Fri 87 88 SW 12 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
6 PM Fri 86 86 SW 12 16790 12783 5783 Blue 34
7 PM Fri 83 83 SW 10 13035 11468 4468 Blue 31
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 9 10766 7777 777 Blue 27
9 PM Fri 74 74 SW 7 7519 7402 402 Blue 22
10 PM Fri 69 69 S 5 7376 7343 343 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 65 65 S 3 7332 7299 299 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 S 2 7299 7265 265 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 60 60 S 1 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 1 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 1 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 57 57 SW 1 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 2 7220 7167 167 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 56 56 W 2 7220 7167 167 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 60 60 W 3 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 65 66 W 5 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 70 72 W 7 7428 7376 376 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 75 79 SW 8 10766 7777 777 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 78 83 SW 9 13035 11468 4468 Blue 31
12 Noon Sat 81 87 SW 10 17429 13719 6719 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 83 89 SW 12 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
2 PM Sat 84 89 SW 12 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 85 89 SW 13 18609 16575 9575 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 86 88 SW 13 18038 14201 7201 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 86 87 SW 13 17429 13719 6719 Blue 35
6 PM Sat 85 85 SW 12 14339 12195 5195 Blue 33
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 10 12254 10658 3658 Blue 30
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 9 8831 7515 515 Blue 25
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 7 7452 7387 387 Blue 21
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 5 7365 7332 332 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 64 64 SW 2 7321 7287 287 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 1 7299 7265 265 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 60 60 SW 1 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 59 59 SW 1 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 58 58 SW 1 7255 7202 202 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 57 57 SW 1 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 56 56 W 2 7220 7167 167 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 57 57 W 2 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 65 66 W 3 7343 7310 310 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 70 72 W 5 7428 7376 376 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 75 78 W 6 9854 7646 646 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 78 81 W 6 11918 9759 2759 Blue 29
12 Noon Sun 81 85 W 7 14339 12195 5195 Blue 33
1 PM Sun 83 87 W 8 17429 13719 6719 Blue 35
2 PM Sun 84 87 W 9 17429 13719 6719 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 84 86 W 10 16790 12783 5783 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 84 85 SW 10 14339 12195 5195 Blue 33
5 PM Sun 83 84 SW 12 13831 11863 4863 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 81 81 SW 12 11918 9759 2759 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 79 79 SW 10 10766 7777 777 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 8 7781 7452 452 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 7 7428 7376 376 Blue 20
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 5 7365 7332 332 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 64 64 S 2 7321 7287 287 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 S 1 7299 7265 265 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 60 60 S 1 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 1 7277 7237 237 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 1 7266 7219 219 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 2 7237 7184 184 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 3 7220 7167 167 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com