Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 19 19 NE 12 7214 7185 185 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 19 19 NE 12 7214 7185 185 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 21 21 NE 12 7233 7204 204 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 24 24 NE 13 7272 7233 233 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 29 30 NE 13 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 35 37 NE 14 8942 7964 964 Blue 25
11 AM Tue 41 44 NE 14 9300 9082 2082 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 44 47 NE 14 10332 9269 2269 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 46 49 NE 13 11038 9953 2953 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 46 48 NE 13 10693 9613 2613 Blue 36
3 PM Tue 43 44 NE 13 9300 9082 2082 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 39 39 NE 12 9014 8631 1631 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 35 35 NE 12 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 31 31 NE 12 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 28 28 NE 10 7387 7287 287 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 27 27 NE 10 7336 7272 272 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 26 26 NE 10 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 26 26 NE 9 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 26 26 NE 9 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 NE 9 7336 7272 272 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7302 7257 257 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 27 27 NE 8 7336 7272 272 Blue 15
7 AM Wed 29 29 NE 8 7438 7302 302 Blue 17
8 AM Wed 32 32 NE 8 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 36 36 NE 8 8656 7821 821 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 41 42 E 7 9121 9011 2011 Blue 30
11 AM Wed 46 47 E 7 10332 9269 2269 Blue 35
12 Noon Wed 50 51 E 6 11210 10644 3644 Blue 39
1 PM Wed 52 53 E 6 11383 11111 4111 Blue 41
2 PM Wed 53 54 NE 6 11593 11197 4197 Blue 42
3 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 11297 10998 3998 Blue 40
4 PM Wed 49 49 NE 8 11038 9953 2953 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 9 9300 9082 2082 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 39 39 NE 9 9014 8631 1631 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 34 34 NE 10 7970 7538 538 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 31 31 NE 10 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 30 30 NE 10 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 30 30 NE 10 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 31 31 NE 10 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 NE 10 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
1 AM Thu 32 32 NE 9 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
2 AM Thu 31 31 NE 9 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
3 AM Thu 30 30 NE 9 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 30 30 NE 9 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
5 AM Thu 29 29 NE 9 7438 7302 302 Blue 17
6 AM Thu 29 29 NE 9 7438 7302 302 Blue 17
7 AM Thu 30 30 NE 10 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
8 AM Thu 33 33 NE 10 7827 7487 487 Blue 21
9 AM Thu 37 38 NE 10 8978 8263 1263 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 42 44 NE 9 9300 9082 2082 Blue 32
11 AM Thu 48 51 NE 8 11210 10644 3644 Blue 39
12 Noon Thu 52 55 NE 7 11871 11283 4283 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 54 57 NE 6 12421 11546 4546 Blue 45
2 PM Thu 55 57 NE 6 12421 11546 4546 Blue 45
3 PM Thu 54 55 NE 5 11871 11283 4283 Blue 43
4 PM Thu 52 52 NE 5 11297 10998 3998 Blue 40
5 PM Thu 48 48 NE 5 10693 9613 2613 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 44 44 NE 5 9300 9082 2082 Blue 32
7 PM Thu 40 40 NE 5 9049 8940 1940 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 37 37 NE 5 8942 7964 964 Blue 25
9 PM Thu 35 35 E 5 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 35 35 E 5 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 35 35 E 5 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 E 5 7970 7538 538 Blue 22
1 AM Fri 33 33 NE 3 7827 7487 487 Blue 21
2 AM Fri 32 32 NE 3 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 31 31 NE 2 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
4 AM Fri 30 30 NE 2 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
5 AM Fri 30 30 NE 2 7489 7335 335 Blue 18
6 AM Fri 32 32 N 2 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
7 AM Fri 36 36 N 3 8656 7821 821 Blue 24
8 AM Fri 40 40 NW 3 9049 8940 1940 Blue 28
9 AM Fri 45 46 W 5 9992 9153 2153 Blue 34
10 AM Fri 50 52 W 6 11297 10998 3998 Blue 40
11 AM Fri 54 56 SW 6 12147 11369 4369 Blue 44
12 Noon Fri 56 59 SW 6 13942 12096 5096 Blue 47
1 PM Fri 57 60 SW 7 14754 12368 5368 Blue 48
2 PM Fri 57 59 SW 7 13942 12096 5096 Blue 47
3 PM Fri 56 57 W 7 12421 11546 4546 Blue 45
4 PM Fri 54 54 W 7 11593 11197 4197 Blue 42
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 11297 10998 3998 Blue 40
6 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 11124 10290 3290 Blue 38
7 PM Fri 47 47 W 5 10332 9269 2269 Blue 35
8 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 9648 9118 2118 Blue 33
9 PM Fri 42 42 W 3 9121 9011 2011 Blue 30
10 PM Fri 39 39 W 2 9014 8631 1631 Blue 27
11 PM Fri 37 37 W 1 8942 7964 964 Blue 25
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 W 1 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
1 AM Sat 33 33 W 1 7827 7487 487 Blue 21
2 AM Sat 32 32 W 1 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 31 31 W 1 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
4 AM Sat 31 31 W 1 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
5 AM Sat 33 33 W 1 7827 7487 487 Blue 21
6 AM Sat 35 35 W 2 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
7 AM Sat 38 38 W 3 8978 8263 1263 Blue 26
8 AM Sat 42 42 W 5 9121 9011 2011 Blue 30
9 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 9648 9118 2118 Blue 33
10 AM Sat 49 50 SW 7 11124 10290 3290 Blue 38
11 AM Sat 52 54 SW 7 11593 11197 4197 Blue 42
12 Noon Sat 54 56 SW 8 12147 11369 4369 Blue 44
1 PM Sat 55 57 SW 8 12421 11546 4546 Blue 45
2 PM Sat 55 57 SW 8 12421 11546 4546 Blue 45
3 PM Sat 54 55 SW 7 11871 11283 4283 Blue 43
4 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 11383 11111 4111 Blue 41
5 PM Sat 52 52 SW 6 11297 10998 3998 Blue 40
6 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 11038 9953 2953 Blue 37
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 5 10332 9269 2269 Blue 35
8 PM Sat 44 44 W 5 9300 9082 2082 Blue 32
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 3 9085 8975 1975 Blue 29
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 3 8978 8263 1263 Blue 26
11 PM Sat 36 36 W 2 8656 7821 821 Blue 24
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 3 7970 7538 538 Blue 22
1 AM Sun 32 32 NW 3 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 31 31 N 3 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
4 AM Sun 31 31 N 6 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
5 AM Sun 33 33 NE 6 7827 7487 487 Blue 21
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 7 8284 7678 678 Blue 23
7 AM Sun 37 37 NE 8 8942 7964 964 Blue 25
8 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 9049 8940 1940 Blue 28
9 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 9156 9046 2046 Blue 31
10 AM Sun 46 47 NE 10 10332 9269 2269 Blue 35
11 AM Sun 49 51 NE 10 11210 10644 3644 Blue 39
12 Noon Sun 50 52 NE 10 11297 10998 3998 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 51 53 NE 10 11383 11111 4111 Blue 41
2 PM Sun 52 54 NE 10 11593 11197 4197 Blue 42
3 PM Sun 52 53 NE 10 11383 11111 4111 Blue 41
4 PM Sun 51 51 NE 10 11210 10644 3644 Blue 39
5 PM Sun 50 50 NE 9 11124 10290 3290 Blue 38
6 PM Sun 49 49 NE 9 11038 9953 2953 Blue 37
7 PM Sun 47 47 NE 9 10332 9269 2269 Blue 35
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 10 9648 9118 2118 Blue 33
9 PM Sun 43 43 NE 10 9156 9046 2046 Blue 31
10 PM Sun 40 40 NE 10 9049 8940 1940 Blue 28
11 PM Sun 38 38 NE 10 8978 8263 1263 Blue 26
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NE 10 8656 7821 821 Blue 24
1 AM Mon 34 34 NE 10 7970 7538 538 Blue 22
2 AM Mon 32 32 NE 10 7683 7436 436 Blue 20
3 AM Mon 31 31 NE 12 7540 7386 386 Blue 19
4 AM Mon 31 31 NE 12 7540 7386 386 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com