Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 SW 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 SW 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 SW 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 54 SW 16 9420 7162 162 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 58 58 SW 17 10446 9672 2672 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 60 61 SW 18 12183 10419 3419 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 60 61 SW 20 12183 10419 3419 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 59 60 SW 21 11567 10205 3205 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 58 58 SW 21 10446 9672 2672 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 57 57 SW 21 10230 9395 2395 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 55 55 SW 20 9700 7347 347 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 53 53 SW 18 8974 7149 149 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 52 52 W 16 7351 7149 149 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 W 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 W 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 NE 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 15 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 NE 15 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 38 NE 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 44 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 50 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 55 NE 9 9700 7347 347 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 55 58 NE 8 10446 9672 2672 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 56 58 NE 8 10446 9672 2672 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 56 57 NE 8 10230 9395 2395 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 55 55 NE 7 9700 7347 347 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 51 51 NE 8 7166 7149 149 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 E 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 E 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 E 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 E 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 E 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 E 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 E 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 SE 3 9420 7162 162 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 56 59 S 3 10678 9948 2948 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 59 62 SW 5 12530 10641 3641 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 60 62 SW 6 12530 10641 3641 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 59 60 W 6 11567 10205 3205 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 57 57 W 6 10230 9395 2395 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 9420 7162 162 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 W 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 W 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 E 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 SE 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 SE 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 S 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 SW 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 SW 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 SW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 55 SW 6 9700 7347 347 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 58 59 SW 6 10678 9948 2948 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 60 61 SW 6 12183 10419 3419 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 61 62 SW 6 12530 10641 3641 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 12183 10419 3419 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 59 59 W 6 10678 9948 2948 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 56 56 W 6 9978 8852 1852 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 7351 7149 149 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 47 47 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 SW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 SW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NW 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 W 5 7351 7149 149 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 56 58 W 6 10446 9672 2672 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 60 62 W 5 12530 10641 3641 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 62 64 W 5 13357 12120 5120 White 13
2 PM Tue 63 65 W 5 13570 12464 5464 White 14
3 PM Tue 62 63 NW 5 12874 11369 4369 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 60 60 NW 5 11567 10205 3205 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 57 57 NW 5 10230 9395 2395 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 8974 7149 149 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 49 49 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NE 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 NE 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 NE 6 9700 7347 347 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 60 62 NE 6 12530 10641 3641 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 64 67 NE 6 13994 13539 6539 White 16
1 PM Wed 66 69 NE 6 14416 14416 7416 White 18
2 PM Wed 67 69 NE 6 14416 14416 7416 White 18
3 PM Wed 65 66 NE 6 13782 12804 5804 White 15
4 PM Wed 63 63 NE 6 12874 11369 4369 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 59 59 NE 6 10678 9948 2948 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 55 55 NE 6 9700 7347 347 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 50 50 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 N 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 N 7 0 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com