Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 WSW 3 6 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 61 61 WSW 3 6 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 61 61 SW 2 5 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 61 61 SSW 4 8 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 7 8389 8219 1219 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 7 8389 8219 1219 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SSW 3 7 8389 8219 1219 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 3 6 8221 8052 1052 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 2 5 8221 8052 1052 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 SSW 2 4 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 62 64 SSW 4 4 18222 9182 2182 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 64 67 SSW 6 7 19310 18171 11171 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 67 69 SW 8 10 20527 18888 11888 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 68 70 SW 10 11 21067 19240 12240 White 10
2 PM Sun 68 68 SW 9 11 19997 18531 11531 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 67 68 SW 8 12 19997 18531 11531 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 8 11 19997 18531 11531 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 68 68 S 4 5 19997 18531 11531 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 66 66 SSE 5 7 18946 17805 10805 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 65 65 S 4 8 18586 10074 3074 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 63 63 SW 4 8 17852 8387 1387 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 5 11 17852 8387 1387 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 5 10 17852 8387 1387 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 2 4 10152 8331 1331 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 ESE 1 3 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 55 55 ENE 1 3 8109 7941 941 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NE 2 5 8054 7885 885 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 4 8277 8108 1108 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 E 2 4 7942 7774 774 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 ESE 2 4 7887 7719 719 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 ESE 1 2 8221 8052 1052 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 SE 0 1 7942 7774 774 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 SE 1 3 7998 7830 830 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 ESE 1 2 8277 8108 1108 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 64 SE 1 1 18222 9182 2182 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 64 65 SW 0 0 18586 10074 3074 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 64 65 WSW 2 2 18586 10074 3074 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 4 5 17852 8387 1387 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 61 62 WNW 5 7 10152 8331 1331 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 9 19310 18171 11171 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 59 60 NE 4 5 8389 8219 1219 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 SE 5 8 8109 7941 941 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 65 ESE 5 8 18586 10074 3074 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 52 52 NW 1 2 7942 7774 774 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 E 1 3 7942 7774 774 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 ESE 4 8 8277 8108 1108 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 5 10 7831 7663 663 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 5 9 7831 7663 663 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 ENE 2 4 8109 7941 941 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 SSE 2 5 7720 7552 552 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SE 0 1 7720 7552 552 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 2 4 7998 7830 830 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 2 5 7720 7552 552 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 2 4 7720 7552 552 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 2 5 8054 7885 885 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 2 6 7720 7552 552 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 2 4 7775 7608 608 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 57 NE 2 4 8221 8052 1052 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 61 NE 4 5 9240 8275 1275 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 61 65 NE 5 5 18586 10074 3074 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 67 72 NE 6 7 21492 20415 13415 White 12
1 PM Tue 66 71 NE 6 7 21280 19891 12891 White 11
2 PM Tue 67 71 NE 6 8 21280 19891 12891 White 11
3 PM Tue 66 67 NNE 3 4 19310 18171 11171 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 65 66 N 3 4 18946 17805 10805 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 65 65 N 4 5 18586 10074 3074 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 54 54 NE 4 5 8054 7885 885 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 NE 4 8 8333 8164 1164 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 ENE 4 8 8109 7941 941 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 E 4 8 7942 7774 774 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 E 2 6 8109 7941 941 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SE 2 4 8109 7941 941 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com