Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 29 29 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 29 29 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 29 29 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 30 30 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 34 34 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 39 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 44 45 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 47 48 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 49 50 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 49 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 44 44 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 43 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 43 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 43 43 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 38 38 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 39 39 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 41 41 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 42 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 43 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 44 46 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 44 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 44 45 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 39 39 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 37 37 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 36 36 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 35 35 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 34 34 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 32 32 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 32 32 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 31 31 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 30 30 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 30 30 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 28 28 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 28 28 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 29 29 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 33 33 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 38 39 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 43 45 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 46 48 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 48 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 49 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 49 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 48 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 43 43 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 40 40 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 36 36 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 35 35 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 35 35 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 34 34 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 33 33 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 32 32 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 32 32 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 32 32 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 31 31 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 30 30 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 29 29 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 30 30 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 49 50 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 53 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 55 56 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 57 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 57 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 54 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 51 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 48 48 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 39 39 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 39 39 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 39 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 38 38 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 38 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 36 36 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 35 35 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 33 33 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 33 33 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 40 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 45 47 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 47 49 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 48 50 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 48 50 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 47 48 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 46 46 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 44 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 39 39 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 33 33 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 32 32 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 29 29 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 28 28 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 28 28 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 28 28 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 27 27 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 25 25 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 24 24 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 24 24 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 27 27 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 32 33 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 36 37 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 39 41 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 41 43 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 42 44 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 43 44 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 43 43 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 41 41 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 38 38 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 34 34 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 31 31 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 29 29 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 28 28 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 28 28 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 25 25 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 24 24 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 24 24 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 23 23 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com