Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 32 32 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 31 31 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 30 30 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 30 30 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 29 29 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 33 34 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 37 40 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 40 44 WSW 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 44 49 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 45 50 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 45 49 WSW 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 46 49 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 46 47 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 45 45 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 44 44 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 42 42 SW 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 39 39 SSW 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 37 37 SSW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 35 35 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 32 32 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 WNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 29 29 SSW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 28 28 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 27 27 ENE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 26 26 ENE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 26 26 NE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 25 25 NE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 26 26 NE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 27 27 NE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 27 28 ENE 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 29 31 NE 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 31 35 NE 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 34 38 NE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 35 39 NE 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 36 40 NE 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 37 40 NE 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 36 37 NE 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 35 35 NE 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 34 34 NE 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 32 32 NE 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 30 30 NE 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 28 28 NE 24 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 28 28 NE 23 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 27 27 NE 23 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 NE 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 27 27 NE 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 27 27 NE 21 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 27 27 NE 21 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 27 27 NE 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 27 27 NE 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 27 27 ENE 17 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 27 27 ENE 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 28 28 ENE 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 29 30 ENE 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 33 36 ENE 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 37 41 ENE 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 41 46 ENE 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 42 47 ENE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 44 48 E 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 46 49 E 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 45 46 E 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 44 44 E 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 43 43 E 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 41 41 E 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 38 38 E 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 35 35 ENE 10 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 35 35 ENE 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 34 34 ENE 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com