Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 42 42 SE 8 7184 7152 152 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 9 7227 7195 195 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 51 52 S 10 7305 7261 261 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 56 59 S 13 11415 9412 2412 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 60 65 S 14 17381 15210 8210 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 63 69 S 16 19310 17727 10727 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 64 71 S 17 21006 18926 11926 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 66 73 S 17 22672 19764 12764 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 67 73 S 17 22672 19764 12764 Blue 34
3 PM Tue 68 73 SW 17 22672 19764 12764 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 69 72 SW 17 21658 19081 12081 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 69 70 SW 17 20260 18781 11781 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 68 68 SW 17 18982 17249 10249 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 65 65 SW 15 17381 15210 8210 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 62 62 SW 13 15499 11334 4334 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 58 58 SW 10 11058 7773 773 Blue 19
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 8 7469 7290 290 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 5 7290 7247 247 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SW 2 7248 7216 216 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 47 47 SW 2 7237 7205 205 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 45 45 S 2 7216 7184 184 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 43 43 S 2 7195 7163 163 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 40 40 SE 2 7163 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 38 38 SE 2 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SE 3 7152 7149 149 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 45 SE 5 7216 7184 184 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 50 52 SE 5 7305 7261 261 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 57 61 S 6 13463 11013 4013 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 62 68 S 7 18982 17249 10249 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 65 73 S 9 22672 19764 12764 Blue 34
12 Noon Wed 67 76 S 12 24701 22158 15158 Blue 37
1 PM Wed 68 76 SW 13 24701 22158 15158 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 70 77 SW 14 24938 22881 15881 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 71 77 SW 14 24938 22881 15881 Blue 38
4 PM Wed 72 75 SW 14 23778 21322 14322 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 72 74 SW 14 23173 20666 13666 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 14 21006 18926 11926 Blue 32
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 13 18850 16981 9981 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 63 63 SW 12 16769 11850 4850 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 59 59 SW 9 11415 9412 2412 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 55 55 SW 7 7850 7305 305 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 53 53 SW 5 7320 7275 275 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 S 2 7290 7247 247 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 50 50 S 2 7276 7237 237 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 2 7261 7226 226 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 7227 7195 195 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 43 43 S 2 7195 7163 163 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 41 41 S 2 7174 7149 149 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 42 42 S 2 7184 7152 152 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 46 47 SE 2 7237 7205 205 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 54 56 S 3 9543 7319 319 Blue 17
9 AM Thu 61 65 S 5 17381 15210 8210 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 66 72 S 7 21658 19081 12081 Blue 33
11 AM Thu 69 77 S 8 24938 22881 15881 Blue 38
12 Noon Thu 72 81 SW 10 26045 25014 18014 Blue 42
1 PM Thu 73 81 SW 12 26045 25014 18014 Blue 42
2 PM Thu 75 82 SW 13 26511 25247 18247 Blue 43
3 PM Thu 76 81 SW 14 26045 25014 18014 Blue 42
4 PM Thu 77 80 SW 14 25641 24780 17780 Blue 41
5 PM Thu 77 78 SW 14 25174 23364 16364 Blue 39
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 14 23778 21322 14322 Blue 36
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 13 21658 19081 12081 Blue 33
8 PM Thu 67 67 SW 10 18850 16981 9981 Blue 28
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 16769 11850 4850 Blue 24
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 7 11415 9412 2412 Blue 20
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 6 9543 7319 319 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 SW 5 7469 7290 290 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 3 7305 7261 261 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 7276 7237 237 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 48 48 SW 3 7248 7216 216 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 45 45 SW 2 7216 7184 184 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 43 43 SW 2 7195 7163 163 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 2 7205 7173 173 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 49 50 SW 3 7276 7237 237 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 56 58 SW 5 11058 7773 773 Blue 19
9 AM Fri 63 67 S 6 18850 16981 9981 Blue 28
10 AM Fri 69 75 S 7 23778 21322 14322 Blue 36
11 AM Fri 72 80 S 8 25641 24780 17780 Blue 41
12 Noon Fri 74 83 S 10 27182 25478 18478 Blue 44
1 PM Fri 76 84 S 12 28344 25709 18709 Blue 45
2 PM Fri 78 85 SW 13 28675 26172 19172 White 46
3 PM Fri 79 84 SW 16 28344 25709 18709 Blue 45
4 PM Fri 80 83 SW 17 27182 25478 18478 Blue 44
5 PM Fri 80 81 SW 17 26045 25014 18014 Blue 42
6 PM Fri 78 78 SW 17 25174 23364 16364 Blue 39
7 PM Fri 74 74 SW 14 23173 20666 13666 Blue 35
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 13 19310 17727 10727 Blue 30
9 PM Fri 64 64 SW 12 17061 12999 5999 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 9 11939 10696 3696 Blue 21
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 8 11058 7773 773 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SW 7 9543 7319 319 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 54 54 SW 7 7469 7290 290 Blue 15
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 7 7320 7275 275 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 51 51 S 7 7290 7247 247 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 48 48 S 8 7248 7216 216 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 46 46 S 8 7227 7195 195 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 47 47 S 9 7237 7205 205 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 52 53 S 10 7320 7275 275 Blue 14
8 AM Sat 58 60 S 12 11939 10696 3696 Blue 21
9 AM Sat 65 69 S 13 19310 17727 10727 Blue 30
10 AM Sat 69 75 S 14 23778 21322 14322 Blue 36
11 AM Sat 72 79 S 15 25408 24215 17215 Blue 40
12 Noon Sat 73 81 S 16 26045 25014 18014 Blue 42
1 PM Sat 75 83 S 18 27182 25478 18478 Blue 44
2 PM Sat 76 83 S 20 27182 25478 18478 Blue 44
3 PM Sat 77 82 SW 22 26511 25247 18247 Blue 43
4 PM Sat 77 80 SW 23 25641 24780 17780 Blue 41
5 PM Sat 76 77 SW 23 24938 22881 15881 Blue 38
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 23 23173 20666 13666 Blue 35
7 PM Sat 71 71 SW 22 21006 18926 11926 Blue 32
8 PM Sat 67 67 SW 21 18850 16981 9981 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 63 63 SW 16 16769 11850 4850 Blue 24
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 12 11939 10696 3696 Blue 21
11 PM Sat 57 57 SW 9 10738 7465 465 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SW 7 7850 7305 305 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 7469 7290 290 Blue 15
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 6 7305 7261 261 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 51 51 SW 6 7290 7247 247 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 48 48 SW 6 7248 7216 216 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 7227 7195 195 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 46 46 SW 7 7227 7195 195 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 7 7276 7237 237 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 56 58 SW 8 11058 7773 773 Blue 19
9 AM Sun 61 65 SW 8 17381 15210 8210 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 65 71 SW 9 21006 18926 11926 Blue 32
11 AM Sun 68 75 SW 10 23778 21322 14322 Blue 36
12 Noon Sun 70 78 SW 10 25174 23364 16364 Blue 39
1 PM Sun 72 79 SW 12 25408 24215 17215 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 74 80 SW 13 25641 24780 17780 Blue 41
3 PM Sun 75 80 SW 14 25641 24780 17780 Blue 41
4 PM Sun 76 79 SW 14 25408 24215 17215 Blue 40
5 PM Sun 76 77 SW 14 24938 22881 15881 Blue 38
6 PM Sun 74 74 SW 14 23173 20666 13666 Blue 35
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 13 21006 18926 11926 Blue 32
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 12 18850 16981 9981 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 15499 11334 4334 Blue 23
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 8 11415 9412 2412 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 6 10738 7465 465 Blue 18
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 5 7850 7305 305 Blue 16
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 7320 7275 275 Blue 14
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 3 7305 7261 261 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 3 7276 7237 237 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 7237 7205 205 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 45 45 NE 3 7216 7184 184 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com