Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 60 60 S 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 S 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 66 SW 5 7385 7252 252 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 70 72 W 5 7501 7443 443 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 76 79 W 5 9819 7656 656 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 81 84 W 5 12814 11235 4235 White 23
1 PM Sat 84 87 W 6 13459 13459 6459 White 26
2 PM Sat 84 87 W 6 13459 13459 6459 White 26
3 PM Sat 83 85 W 7 13029 12503 5503 White 24
4 PM Sat 82 83 W 7 12597 10496 3496 White 22
5 PM Sat 81 82 W 8 12377 9707 2707 White 21
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 8 9819 7656 656 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 7560 7501 501 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 7482 7423 423 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 8 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 7365 7188 188 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 7 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 7 7253 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 7189 7149 149 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 W 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 NW 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 W 3 7385 7252 252 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 70 72 W 3 7501 7443 443 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 74 76 W 5 7664 7520 520 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 77 80 W 5 10551 7904 904 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 80 83 W 6 12597 10496 3496 White 22
1 PM Sun 82 85 W 7 13029 12503 5503 White 24
2 PM Sun 83 86 W 7 13244 13244 6244 White 25
3 PM Sun 84 86 W 8 13244 13244 6244 White 25
4 PM Sun 85 87 W 9 13459 13459 6459 White 26
5 PM Sun 85 86 W 9 13244 13244 6244 White 25
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 9 12597 10496 3496 White 22
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 9 10551 7904 904 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 8 7560 7501 501 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 7 7482 7423 423 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 68 68 NW 6 7424 7365 365 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 NW 3 7365 7188 188 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 65 65 NW 3 7365 7188 188 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 64 64 NW 5 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 7253 7149 149 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 N 6 7253 7149 149 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 69 70 NW 5 7462 7404 404 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 75 78 W 3 8548 7559 559 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 80 85 W 3 13029 12503 5503 White 24
11 AM Mon 84 90 SW 2 14101 14101 7101 White 28
12 Noon Mon 86 93 SW 2 14736 14736 7736 White 31
1 PM Mon 88 94 SW 3 14944 14944 7944 White 32
2 PM Mon 89 94 SW 5 14944 14944 7944 White 32
3 PM Mon 89 93 SW 6 14736 14736 7736 White 31
4 PM Mon 89 91 SW 7 14315 14315 7315 White 29
5 PM Mon 88 89 W 8 13887 13887 6887 White 27
6 PM Mon 86 86 W 9 13244 13244 6244 White 25
7 PM Mon 82 82 W 9 12377 9707 2707 White 21
8 PM Mon 77 77 W 8 7914 7540 540 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 73 73 W 7 7521 7462 462 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 7462 7404 404 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 68 68 W 5 7424 7365 365 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 W 3 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 2 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 66 66 W 2 7385 7252 252 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 64 64 NW 3 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 62 62 NW 3 7189 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 NW 5 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 69 70 NW 6 7462 7404 404 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 76 79 W 6 9819 7656 656 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 81 85 W 7 13029 12503 5503 White 24
11 AM Tue 85 91 SW 8 14315 14315 7315 White 29
12 Noon Tue 88 94 SW 8 14944 14944 7944 White 32
1 PM Tue 90 96 SW 9 15359 15359 8359 White 34
2 PM Tue 90 95 SW 10 15151 15151 8151 White 33
3 PM Tue 90 94 W 10 14944 14944 7944 White 32
4 PM Tue 89 92 W 12 14528 14528 7528 White 30
5 PM Tue 88 89 W 12 13887 13887 6887 White 27
6 PM Tue 85 85 W 12 13029 12503 5503 White 24
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 10 12158 8467 1467 White 20
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 10 7914 7540 540 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 9 7521 7462 462 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 8 7462 7404 404 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 7 7443 7384 384 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 7 7424 7365 365 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 6 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 65 65 W 5 7365 7188 188 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 63 63 W 5 7253 7149 149 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 W 5 7253 7149 149 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 68 69 W 5 7443 7384 384 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 73 75 W 6 7560 7501 501 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 79 82 W 6 12377 9707 2707 White 21
11 AM Wed 84 88 W 7 13673 13673 6673 White 27
12 Noon Wed 88 93 W 7 14736 14736 7736 White 31
1 PM Wed 90 94 W 8 14944 14944 7944 White 32
2 PM Wed 90 94 W 9 14944 14944 7944 White 32
3 PM Wed 89 92 W 9 14528 14528 7528 White 30
4 PM Wed 89 91 W 10 14315 14315 7315 White 29
5 PM Wed 87 88 W 10 13673 13673 6673 White 27
6 PM Wed 85 85 W 12 13029 12503 5503 White 24
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 12 12377 9707 2707 White 21
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 12 8548 7559 559 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 10 7540 7481 481 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 7501 7443 443 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 7462 7404 404 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 9 7424 7365 365 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 9 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 8 7365 7188 188 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 7 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 61 61 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 W 6 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 69 70 W 6 7462 7404 404 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 75 77 W 6 7914 7540 540 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 80 83 W 7 12597 10496 3496 White 22
11 AM Thu 84 88 W 8 13673 13673 6673 White 27
12 Noon Thu 87 91 W 8 14315 14315 7315 White 29
1 PM Thu 88 92 W 9 14528 14528 7528 White 30
2 PM Thu 88 91 W 10 14315 14315 7315 White 29
3 PM Thu 87 89 W 10 13887 13887 6887 White 27
4 PM Thu 87 88 W 12 13673 13673 6673 White 27
5 PM Thu 86 86 W 12 13244 13244 6244 White 25
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 13 12814 11235 4235 White 23
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 13 10551 7904 904 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 12 7664 7520 520 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 12 7482 7423 423 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 7443 7384 384 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 10 7424 7365 365 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 9 7404 7315 315 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 8 7385 7252 252 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 7 7365 7188 188 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 6 7316 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 W 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com