Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 36 36 NE 20 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NE 21 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 NE 21 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 NE 22 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 41 NE 22 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 45 NE 22 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 45 46 NE 22 7931 7149 999 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 46 47 NE 22 8605 7152 1002 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 47 48 NE 21 8704 7172 1022 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 48 48 NE 20 8704 7172 1022 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 48 48 NE 20 8704 7172 1022 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 47 47 NE 18 8605 7152 1002 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 46 46 NE 17 7931 7149 999 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 45 45 NE 16 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 44 44 NE 15 7153 7149 999 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 NE 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 E 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 E 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 E 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 E 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 E 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 E 14 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 47 49 E 14 8803 7839 1689 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 50 53 E 14 9740 9290 3140 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 54 57 E 13 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 55 57 E 10 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 56 57 E 9 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 56 57 E 9 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 54 54 E 9 10205 9434 3284 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 52 52 E 9 9596 8792 2642 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 49 49 E 9 8803 7839 1689 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 45 45 E 10 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 43 43 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 41 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 46 E 8 7931 7149 999 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 48 51 E 8 9452 8694 2544 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 53 57 E 8 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 56 60 E 8 13410 12013 5863 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 58 61 E 8 13989 12394 6244 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 59 61 NE 8 13989 12394 6244 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 60 61 NE 8 13989 12394 6244 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 60 60 NE 8 13410 12013 5863 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 58 58 NE 8 12482 10783 4633 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 55 55 NE 9 10902 9577 3427 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 52 52 NE 9 9596 8792 2642 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 9 8704 7172 1022 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 45 45 NE 9 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 48 NE 12 8704 7172 1022 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 52 54 E 13 10205 9434 3284 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 56 59 E 14 12860 11433 5283 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 59 63 E 15 15081 13254 7104 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 62 66 E 15 15803 14910 8760 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 63 66 E 15 15803 14910 8760 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 63 65 E 15 15634 14378 8228 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 62 63 E 14 15081 13254 7104 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 61 61 E 14 13989 12394 6244 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 59 59 NE 14 12860 11433 5283 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 57 57 NE 13 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 55 55 NE 14 10902 9577 3427 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 53 53 NE 14 9740 9290 3140 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 14 9308 8595 2445 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 14 8704 7172 1022 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 14 7931 7149 999 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 7153 7149 999 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 E 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 E 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 E 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 E 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 E 15 7153 7149 999 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 E 15 8605 7152 1002 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 50 51 E 15 9452 8694 2544 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 53 55 E 15 10902 9577 3427 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 56 59 E 16 12860 11433 5283 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 59 62 E 16 14545 12768 6618 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 61 64 E 16 15464 13827 7677 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 62 64 E 16 15464 13827 7677 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 63 64 E 15 15464 13827 7677 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 63 63 E 15 15081 13254 7104 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 63 63 E 15 15081 13254 7104 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 62 62 E 14 14545 12768 6618 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 60 60 E 13 13410 12013 5863 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 58 58 E 13 12482 10783 4633 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 56 56 E 12 11561 9720 3570 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 54 54 E 12 10205 9434 3284 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 12 9452 8694 2544 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 E 10 8803 7839 1689 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 47 47 E 10 8605 7152 1002 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 10 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 10 7153 7149 999 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 12 7153 7149 999 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 12 7931 7149 999 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 13 8803 7839 1689 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 52 52 E 14 9596 8792 2642 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 55 56 E 14 11561 9720 3570 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 58 60 E 14 13410 12013 5863 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 60 62 E 14 14545 12768 6618 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 14 15464 13827 7677 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 64 65 E 13 15634 14378 8228 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 64 65 E 12 15634 14378 8228 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 64 64 SE 10 15464 13827 7677 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 63 63 SE 9 15081 13254 7104 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 62 62 SE 8 14545 12768 6618 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 60 60 SE 8 13410 12013 5863 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 57 57 SE 7 12098 10092 3942 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 55 55 SE 7 10902 9577 3427 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 52 52 E 7 9596 8792 2642 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 49 49 E 7 8803 7839 1689 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 E 6 8605 7152 1002 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 7173 7149 999 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com