Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Fri 42 42 SE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 48 N 5 7172 7149 999 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 52 54 N 7 7385 7216 1066 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 57 61 N 8 12496 10390 4240 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 62 66 N 9 14888 13736 7586 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 64 68 N 9 15765 14436 8286 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 66 69 NW 9 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 67 69 NW 9 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 68 69 NW 9 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 67 67 NW 9 15328 14088 7938 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 65 65 NW 9 14542 13132 6982 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 7 10685 8918 2768 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 53 53 NW 6 7247 7201 1051 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 5 7202 7156 1006 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 3 7172 7149 999 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 46 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 SE 5 7247 7201 1051 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 58 62 S 6 13340 10643 4493 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 64 68 SW 7 15765 14436 8286 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 68 72 SW 9 19438 16718 10568 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 69 72 W 12 19438 16718 10568 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 70 72 W 13 19438 16718 10568 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 70 71 W 14 18716 15616 9466 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 69 69 W 14 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 13 14888 13736 7586 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 12 12496 10390 4240 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 9 9008 7246 1096 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 50 50 SW 7 7202 7156 1006 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 47 47 SW 6 7157 7149 999 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 45 45 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 SW 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 W 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 W 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 W 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 NW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 51 NW 9 7217 7171 1021 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 54 57 NW 12 9907 7374 1224 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 59 63 NW 14 13835 11369 5219 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 62 66 NW 15 14888 13736 7586 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 64 67 NW 16 15328 14088 7938 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 65 67 NW 16 15328 14088 7938 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 65 66 NW 16 14888 13736 7586 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 64 64 NW 16 14190 12295 6145 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 61 61 NW 16 12496 10390 4240 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 57 57 NW 14 9907 7374 1224 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 52 52 N 13 7232 7186 1036 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 48 48 N 10 7172 7149 999 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 43 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 50 NE 8 7202 7156 1006 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 54 58 NE 9 10432 8080 1930 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 59 63 NE 9 13835 11369 5219 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 63 67 N 9 15328 14088 7938 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 65 68 N 9 15765 14436 8286 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 67 69 N 9 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 68 69 N 9 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 68 68 N 8 15765 14436 8286 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 66 66 N 8 14888 13736 7586 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 7 13340 10643 4493 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 5 9008 7246 1096 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 3 7217 7171 1021 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 3 7172 7149 999 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 NE 7 7247 7201 1051 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 57 61 NE 8 12496 10390 4240 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 63 67 NE 8 15328 14088 7938 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 68 72 NE 8 19438 16718 10568 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 71 74 N 8 19864 17678 11528 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 73 75 N 7 19979 19327 13177 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 73 74 N 7 19864 17678 11528 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 72 72 N 7 19438 16718 10568 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 69 69 N 6 17116 14780 8630 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 14190 12295 6145 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 10685 8918 2768 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 7385 7216 1066 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 2 7202 7156 1006 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 47 47 N 1 7157 7149 999 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 N 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 NE 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 E 3 7187 7149 999 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 54 56 NE 5 9008 7246 1096 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 60 64 NE 6 14190 12295 6145 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 66 70 N 8 17284 15182 9032 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 70 74 N 9 19864 17678 11528 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 72 75 NW 10 19979 19327 13177 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 74 76 W 12 20094 19527 13377 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 74 75 W 12 19979 19327 13177 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 73 73 NW 10 19705 17216 11066 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 70 70 NW 9 17284 15182 9032 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 65 65 NW 7 14542 13132 6982 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 60 60 NW 5 11562 9694 3544 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 55 55 NW 3 8154 7231 1081 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 51 51 N 2 7217 7171 1021 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 2 7172 7149 999 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 2 7157 7149 999 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 45 45 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com