Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 38 38 SW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 SW 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 SW 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 SW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 39 SW 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 W 6 6636 6636 486 White 0
12 Noon Thu 43 44 W 6 7079 7079 929 White 0
1 PM Thu 45 46 W 6 7521 7326 1176 White 3
2 PM Thu 46 47 W 6 7741 7717 1567 White 4
3 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 7521 7326 1176 White 3
4 PM Thu 45 45 NW 3 7300 7149 999 White 2
5 PM Thu 43 43 SE 2 6858 6858 708 White 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 E 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 E 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 E 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 6636 6636 486 White 0
11 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 7300 7149 999 White 2
12 Noon Fri 48 48 SE 7 7961 7961 1811 White 5
1 PM Fri 50 50 E 6 8400 8400 2250 White 7
2 PM Fri 51 51 SE 7 8620 8620 2470 White 8
3 PM Fri 50 50 E 5 8400 8400 2250 White 7
4 PM Fri 48 48 E 5 7961 7961 1811 White 5
5 PM Fri 46 46 SE 5 7521 7326 1176 White 3
6 PM Fri 43 43 E 3 6858 6858 708 White 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 SE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 SE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 S 6 6636 6636 486 White 0
11 AM Sat 47 47 S 7 7741 7717 1567 White 4
12 Noon Sat 50 50 S 7 8400 8400 2250 White 7
1 PM Sat 52 52 S 7 8838 8838 2688 White 9
2 PM Sat 52 52 S 9 8838 8838 2688 White 9
3 PM Sat 51 51 S 8 8620 8620 2470 White 8
4 PM Sat 50 50 S 8 8400 8400 2250 White 7
5 PM Sat 48 48 S 8 7961 7961 1811 White 5
6 PM Sat 45 45 S 8 7300 7149 999 White 2
7 PM Sat 42 42 S 7 6636 6636 486 White 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 S 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 S 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 SW 10 6858 6858 708 White 0
11 AM Sun 46 46 SW 12 7521 7326 1176 White 3
12 Noon Sun 48 48 SW 13 7961 7961 1811 White 5
1 PM Sun 49 49 SW 13 8181 8181 2031 White 6
2 PM Sun 49 49 SW 14 8181 8181 2031 White 6
3 PM Sun 48 48 SW 14 7961 7961 1811 White 5
4 PM Sun 47 47 SW 13 7741 7717 1567 White 4
5 PM Sun 45 45 SW 13 7300 7149 999 White 2
6 PM Sun 43 43 SW 12 6858 6858 708 White 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 W 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 W 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 W 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 W 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 NW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 NW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 NW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 42 N 10 6636 6636 486 White 0
12 Noon Mon 44 45 N 10 7300 7149 999 White 2
1 PM Mon 46 47 N 10 7741 7717 1567 White 4
2 PM Mon 47 48 N 9 7961 7961 1811 White 5
3 PM Mon 46 47 N 8 7741 7717 1567 White 4
4 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 7079 7079 929 White 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 30 30 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 29 29 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 27 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 39 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 45 E 6 7300 7149 999 White 2
12 Noon Tue 47 49 E 6 8181 8181 2031 White 6
1 PM Tue 49 51 NE 6 8620 8620 2470 White 8
2 PM Tue 50 51 NE 6 8620 8620 2470 White 8
3 PM Tue 49 50 NE 6 8400 8400 2250 White 7
4 PM Tue 47 47 NE 5 7741 7717 1567 White 4
5 PM Tue 44 44 NE 5 7079 7079 929 White 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 E 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com