Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 SW 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 54 SW 17 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 59 SW 21 9240 7149 999 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 60 61 SW 23 9791 7652 1502 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 61 62 SW 24 10064 9207 3057 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 61 62 SW 25 10064 9207 3057 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 61 62 W 24 10064 9207 3057 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 60 60 W 23 9516 7232 1082 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 22 7796 7149 999 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 18 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 W 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 NW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 NE 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 NE 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 NE 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 NE 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 E 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 59 E 9 9240 7149 999 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 59 62 E 8 10064 9207 3057 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 60 62 NE 8 10064 9207 3057 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 59 60 NE 7 9516 7232 1082 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 58 58 NE 7 7796 7149 999 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 55 55 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 58 SE 5 7796 7149 999 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 60 63 SE 3 10294 9481 3331 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 62 65 S 3 10753 10025 3875 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 63 65 SW 5 10753 10025 3875 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 62 63 W 5 10294 9481 3331 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 61 61 W 5 9791 7652 1502 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 7796 7149 999 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 53 53 W 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 W 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 61 SW 7 9791 7652 1502 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 64 65 SW 8 10753 10025 3875 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 65 66 SW 7 10991 10262 4112 White 9
2 PM Mon 64 65 W 8 10753 10025 3875 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 64 64 W 8 10507 9754 3604 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 63 63 W 8 10294 9481 3331 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 9516 7232 1082 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 W 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NW 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 SW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 W 7 10507 9754 3604 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 66 68 NW 6 11421 10707 4557 White 11
1 PM Tue 68 70 NW 5 11849 11849 5699 White 13
2 PM Tue 67 69 NW 6 11635 11635 5485 White 12
3 PM Tue 66 67 NW 7 11207 10473 4323 White 10
4 PM Tue 65 65 N 6 10753 10025 3875 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 6 10064 9207 3057 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 57 57 N 6 7241 7149 999 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 E 6 7796 7149 999 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 64 66 E 6 10991 10262 4112 White 9
12 Noon Wed 69 72 NE 6 12274 12274 6124 White 15
1 PM Wed 71 73 NE 6 12485 12485 6335 White 16
2 PM Wed 71 73 NE 6 12485 12485 6335 White 16
3 PM Wed 71 72 N 6 12274 12274 6124 White 15
4 PM Wed 70 70 N 6 11849 11849 5699 White 13
5 PM Wed 66 66 N 7 10991 10262 4112 White 9
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 6 9791 7652 1502 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 54 54 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com