Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 25 25 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 NE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 25 25 NE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 30 30 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 45 46 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 50 51 SE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 52 53 SE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 53 53 S 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 S 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 SE 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 53 55 SE 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 56 58 S 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 57 58 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 56 56 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 S 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 SE 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 SE 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 E 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 51 52 E 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 56 58 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 58 60 SE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 59 60 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 59 60 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 58 58 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 S 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 S 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 S 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 S 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 S 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 47 47 S 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 51 51 S 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 52 52 SW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 SW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 SW 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 SW 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 SW 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 SW 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 SW 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 SW 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 W 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 W 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 NW 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NW 3 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 N 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 45 46 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 48 49 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 50 51 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 51 52 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 52 53 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 N 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 NE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 NE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 NE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 NE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 NE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 NE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 NE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 NE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 NE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 NE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 53 55 NE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 56 58 NE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 57 59 NE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 58 59 NE 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 NE 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 E 6 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 E 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 E 5 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 SE 5 5617 6150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com