Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 69 70 NE 3 7345 7308 1158 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 75 78 NE 3 7530 7422 1272 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 80 84 NE 5 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
11 AM Sun 83 88 N 6 15826 12605 6455 Blue 32
12 Noon Sun 86 92 N 7 15951 15841 9691 Blue 36
1 PM Sun 88 94 N 7 16108 15892 9742 Blue 38
2 PM Sun 89 94 NW 8 16108 15892 9742 Blue 38
3 PM Sun 90 94 NW 8 16108 15892 9742 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 91 93 W 9 16029 15864 9714 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 91 92 W 9 15951 15841 9691 Blue 36
6 PM Sun 89 89 W 9 15849 15692 9542 Blue 33
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 8 15748 8572 2422 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 7 8045 7528 1378 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 6 7495 7392 1242 Blue 21
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 6 7381 7344 1194 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 70 70 W 6 7345 7308 1158 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 W 6 7321 7284 1134 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 5 7297 7260 1110 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 5 7285 7247 1097 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 3 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 61 61 W 3 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 59 59 W 3 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 59 59 SW 3 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 63 63 SW 3 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 68 69 S 2 7333 7296 1146 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 75 77 S 3 7495 7392 1242 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 80 84 S 6 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
11 AM Mon 84 89 SW 9 15849 15692 9542 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 87 92 SW 12 15951 15841 9691 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 89 94 SW 14 16108 15892 9742 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 90 94 SW 15 16108 15892 9742 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 90 93 SW 16 16029 15864 9714 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 90 92 SW 17 15951 15841 9691 Blue 36
5 PM Mon 89 90 SW 18 15872 15795 9645 Blue 34
6 PM Mon 87 87 SW 17 15802 9771 3621 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 15 8598 7785 1635 Blue 27
8 PM Mon 78 78 SW 12 7530 7422 1272 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 74 74 SW 8 7393 7356 1206 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 6 7345 7308 1158 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 68 68 SW 5 7321 7284 1134 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SW 5 7297 7260 1110 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 65 65 SW 5 7285 7247 1097 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 5 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 5 7248 7200 1050 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 7217 7169 1019 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 59 59 S 6 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 59 59 S 6 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 61 61 S 6 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 64 64 S 7 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 70 71 S 7 7357 7320 1170 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 75 77 S 8 7495 7392 1242 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 81 84 S 8 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 85 88 SW 9 15826 12605 6455 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 86 89 SW 9 15849 15692 9542 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 86 88 SW 10 15826 12605 6455 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 85 87 SW 10 15802 9771 3621 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 84 85 SW 12 13219 8299 2149 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 84 84 SW 13 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 13 8322 7639 1489 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 12 7648 7457 1307 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 7424 7368 1218 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 7 7369 7332 1182 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 71 71 S 6 7357 7320 1170 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 70 70 S 5 7345 7308 1158 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 S 5 7333 7296 1146 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 68 68 S 5 7321 7284 1134 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 66 66 S 6 7297 7260 1110 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 64 64 S 6 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 62 62 S 5 7248 7200 1050 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 61 61 SE 5 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 61 61 SE 3 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 66 66 S 3 7297 7260 1110 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 70 71 S 3 7357 7320 1170 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 75 77 S 5 7495 7392 1242 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 79 82 S 6 8322 7639 1489 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 83 86 S 7 15748 8572 2422 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 84 87 SW 9 15802 9771 3621 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 83 86 SW 12 15748 8572 2422 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 83 85 SW 13 13219 8299 2149 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 81 82 SW 13 8322 7639 1489 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 80 80 SW 12 7795 7493 1343 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 78 78 SW 10 7530 7422 1272 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 9 7424 7368 1218 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 8 7357 7320 1170 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 68 68 S 7 7321 7284 1134 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 66 66 S 6 7297 7260 1110 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 65 65 S 5 7285 7247 1097 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SE 3 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 63 63 S 3 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 62 62 S 2 7248 7200 1050 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 7217 7169 1019 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 63 63 S 3 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 67 68 SW 5 7321 7284 1134 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 72 74 SW 6 7393 7356 1206 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 77 80 SW 7 7795 7493 1343 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 81 84 SW 8 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 83 87 W 10 15802 9771 3621 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 83 86 W 13 15748 8572 2422 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 82 85 W 14 13219 8299 2149 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 82 84 W 14 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 81 82 W 13 8322 7639 1489 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 12 7648 7457 1307 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 10 7495 7392 1242 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 73 73 SW 9 7381 7344 1194 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 70 70 SW 7 7345 7308 1158 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 68 68 SW 5 7321 7284 1134 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 65 65 SW 3 7285 7247 1097 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SW 2 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 63 63 SW 2 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 62 62 SW 1 7248 7200 1050 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 61 61 SW 2 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 58 58 SW 2 7186 7149 999 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 58 58 S 3 7186 7149 999 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 3 7217 7169 1019 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 69 71 SW 6 7357 7320 1170 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 74 77 SW 7 7495 7392 1242 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 78 81 SW 8 8045 7528 1378 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 82 86 SW 9 15748 8572 2422 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 83 87 SW 12 15802 9771 3621 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 83 87 W 13 15802 9771 3621 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 83 86 W 14 15748 8572 2422 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 83 85 W 13 13219 8299 2149 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 83 84 W 13 9933 8024 1874 Blue 28
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 12 8322 7639 1489 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 10 7648 7457 1307 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 9 7424 7368 1218 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 71 71 SW 7 7357 7320 1170 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 69 69 SW 6 7333 7296 1146 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 67 67 SW 5 7309 7272 1122 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SW 3 7297 7260 1110 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 3 7273 7231 1081 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 7261 7216 1066 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 61 61 S 3 7232 7185 1035 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 59 59 S 3 7201 7154 1004 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 58 58 S 5 7186 7149 999 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com