Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 SW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 35 35 SW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 35 35 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 34 34 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 31 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 30 30 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 34 34 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 36 37 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 39 41 NNE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 41 45 NNE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 44 48 N 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 45 50 ESE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 47 51 SSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 48 51 NW 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 48 49 NW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 47 47 NW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 46 NW 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 44 44 NW 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 41 41 NW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 39 39 NW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 37 37 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 36 36 ESE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 N 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 33 33 ESE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 31 31 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 30 30 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 29 29 N 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 29 29 N 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 28 28 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 28 28 SE 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 28 29 NNE 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 31 33 NE 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 33 36 NE 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 36 40 NE 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 37 41 NE 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 38 42 NE 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 39 42 NE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 39 40 NE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 39 39 NE 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 38 38 NE 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 36 36 NE 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 34 34 NE 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 32 32 NE 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 31 31 NE 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 30 30 NE 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 NE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 29 29 NE 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 28 28 NE 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 28 28 NE 18 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 27 27 NE 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 27 27 NE 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 26 26 NE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 27 27 NE 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 28 28 NE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 28 29 NE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 33 35 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 38 42 ENE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 42 46 ENE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 45 50 E 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 47 51 ESE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 49 52 SE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 48 49 SE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 46 46 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 SE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 41 41 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 39 39 ENE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 38 38 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 37 37 ENE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com