Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 55 55 E 1 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 1 7259 7201 1051 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 66 68 S 1 7457 7418 1268 Blue 19
9 AM Sat 70 74 SW 3 8315 7604 1454 Blue 25
10 AM Sat 75 80 SW 6 15573 12576 6426 Blue 31
11 AM Sat 80 87 W 7 20377 18945 12795 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 83 90 W 9 21232 20163 14013 Blue 41
1 PM Sat 84 90 W 10 21232 20163 14013 Blue 41
2 PM Sat 85 90 W 12 21232 20163 14013 Blue 41
3 PM Sat 85 88 W 12 20745 19314 13164 Blue 39
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 13 20377 18945 12795 Blue 38
5 PM Sat 85 86 W 14 19952 18544 12394 Blue 37
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 14 19085 15981 9831 Blue 35
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 13 18779 15460 9310 Blue 34
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 12 15083 11053 4903 Blue 30
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 8315 7604 1454 Blue 25
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 7 7485 7431 1281 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 67 67 W 6 7445 7406 1256 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 SW 5 7394 7355 1205 Blue 15
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 5 7381 7342 1192 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 7355 7315 1165 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 7342 7296 1146 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 57 57 SW 5 7316 7258 1108 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 3 7297 7239 1089 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 55 55 SW 2 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 2 7297 7239 1089 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 65 67 SW 3 7445 7406 1256 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 69 73 S 5 7959 7515 1365 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 75 80 S 7 15573 12576 6426 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 80 85 SW 8 19521 17699 11549 Blue 36
12 Noon Sun 83 89 SW 9 21071 19741 13591 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 84 89 SW 12 21071 19741 13591 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 84 88 SW 12 20745 19314 13164 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 84 87 SW 13 20377 18945 12795 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 84 86 SW 14 19952 18544 12394 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 83 84 SW 14 19085 15981 9831 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 82 82 SW 14 18070 14787 8637 Blue 33
7 PM Sun 79 79 SW 12 15083 11053 4903 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 9 11379 7932 1782 Blue 27
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 7 7768 7483 1333 Blue 23
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 7485 7431 1281 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 3 7432 7393 1243 Blue 18
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 SW 2 7394 7355 1205 Blue 15
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 1 7368 7329 1179 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 59 59 E 1 7342 7296 1146 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 57 57 E 2 7316 7258 1108 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 55 55 E 2 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 7259 7201 1051 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 55 55 E 2 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 58 58 SE 3 7330 7277 1127 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 62 63 SE 6 7394 7355 1205 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 67 69 SE 7 7485 7431 1281 Blue 20
10 AM Mon 72 75 SE 9 9592 7757 1607 Blue 26
11 AM Mon 76 81 S 10 17137 13769 7619 Blue 32
12 Noon Mon 79 85 S 13 19521 17699 11549 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 81 87 S 14 20377 18945 12795 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 82 88 S 14 20745 19314 13164 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 83 88 S 14 20745 19314 13164 Blue 39
4 PM Mon 83 86 SW 14 19952 18544 12394 Blue 37
5 PM Mon 83 85 SW 14 19521 17699 11549 Blue 36
6 PM Mon 81 81 SW 13 17137 13769 7619 Blue 32
7 PM Mon 78 78 SW 10 14069 9394 3244 Blue 29
8 PM Mon 75 75 SW 8 9592 7757 1607 Blue 26
9 PM Mon 70 70 SW 6 7517 7444 1294 Blue 21
10 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 7445 7406 1256 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 64 64 SW 3 7406 7367 1217 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SW 3 7381 7342 1192 Blue 14
1 AM Tue 60 60 SW 2 7355 7315 1165 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 58 58 SW 2 7330 7277 1127 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 56 56 S 1 7297 7239 1089 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 1 7259 7201 1051 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 53 53 SE 1 7240 7182 1032 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 54 54 SE 2 7259 7201 1051 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 2 7316 7258 1108 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 63 65 SE 3 7419 7380 1230 Blue 17
9 AM Tue 68 72 S 3 7768 7483 1333 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 73 79 S 5 15083 11053 4903 Blue 30
11 AM Tue 78 85 S 6 19521 17699 11549 Blue 36
12 Noon Tue 81 89 S 7 21071 19741 13591 Blue 40
1 PM Tue 83 91 SW 8 21499 20568 14418 Blue 42
2 PM Tue 84 91 SW 8 21499 20568 14418 Blue 42
3 PM Tue 84 89 SW 9 21071 19741 13591 Blue 40
4 PM Tue 84 87 SW 10 20377 18945 12795 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 83 85 W 10 19521 17699 11549 Blue 36
6 PM Tue 82 82 W 10 18070 14787 8637 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 15083 11053 4903 Blue 30
8 PM Tue 76 76 W 7 11379 7932 1782 Blue 27
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 6 7959 7515 1365 Blue 24
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 5 7517 7444 1294 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 67 67 W 3 7445 7406 1256 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 3 7406 7367 1217 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 3 7381 7342 1192 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 60 60 SW 3 7355 7315 1165 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 58 58 SW 2 7330 7277 1127 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 56 56 SW 2 7297 7239 1089 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 54 54 S 2 7259 7201 1051 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 55 55 S 2 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 58 59 S 1 7342 7296 1146 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 64 66 SW 2 7432 7393 1243 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 70 74 SW 3 8315 7604 1454 Blue 25
10 AM Wed 75 81 W 5 17137 13769 7619 Blue 32
11 AM Wed 79 87 W 7 20377 18945 12795 Blue 38
12 Noon Wed 83 92 W 8 21728 20901 14751 Blue 43
1 PM Wed 85 94 W 9 22767 21305 15155 White 45
2 PM Wed 86 94 W 10 22767 21305 15155 White 45
3 PM Wed 87 93 W 12 22342 21144 14994 Blue 44
4 PM Wed 87 91 W 12 21499 20568 14418 Blue 42
5 PM Wed 86 88 W 13 20745 19314 13164 Blue 39
6 PM Wed 85 86 W 13 19952 18544 12394 Blue 37
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 12 18070 14787 8637 Blue 33
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 10 15083 11053 4903 Blue 30
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 11379 7932 1782 Blue 27
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 7 7768 7483 1333 Blue 23
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 6 7457 7418 1268 Blue 19
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 5 7419 7380 1230 Blue 17
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 7394 7355 1205 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 7381 7342 1192 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 7355 7315 1165 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 3 7316 7258 1108 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 55 55 SW 3 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 55 55 SW 3 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 58 59 S 5 7342 7296 1146 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 64 66 S 6 7432 7393 1243 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 70 74 S 8 8315 7604 1454 Blue 25
10 AM Thu 76 82 SW 9 18070 14787 8637 Blue 33
11 AM Thu 80 88 SW 12 20745 19314 13164 Blue 39
12 Noon Thu 83 92 SW 14 21728 20901 14751 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 85 94 SW 15 22767 21305 15155 White 45
2 PM Thu 86 94 SW 15 22767 21305 15155 White 45
3 PM Thu 87 93 SW 16 22342 21144 14994 Blue 44
4 PM Thu 87 91 SW 16 21499 20568 14418 Blue 42
5 PM Thu 87 89 SW 16 21071 19741 13591 Blue 40
6 PM Thu 85 86 SW 16 19952 18544 12394 Blue 37
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 15 18779 15460 9310 Blue 34
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 13 15083 11053 4903 Blue 30
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 12 9592 7757 1607 Blue 26
10 PM Thu 72 72 SW 12 7768 7483 1333 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 69 69 SW 10 7485 7431 1281 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 9 7432 7393 1243 Blue 18
1 AM Fri 63 63 S 8 7394 7355 1205 Blue 15
2 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 7368 7329 1179 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 59 59 S 7 7342 7296 1146 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 7316 7258 1108 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 55 55 S 6 7278 7220 1070 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com