Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SSW 2 4 8085 7917 1767 Blue 17
1 AM Sun 60 60 S 1 3 8030 7862 1712 Blue 16
2 AM Sun 59 59 SSE 3 7 7975 7808 1658 Blue 15
3 AM Sun 58 58 SE 3 6 7920 7753 1603 Blue 14
4 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 3 6 7865 7698 1548 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 2 4 7811 7643 1493 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 2 4 7756 7588 1438 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 7 7701 7534 1384 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 55 55 E 3 5 7756 7588 1438 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 62 64 ESE 1 2 8251 8082 1932 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 69 72 SSE 2 3 18719 13117 6967 Blue 28
11 AM Sun 74 79 S 4 4 21930 20543 14393 White 35
12 Noon Sun 77 82 SSW 5 6 21240 21312 15162 White 38
1 PM Sun 77 82 SSW 6 7 21240 21312 15162 White 38
2 PM Sun 79 83 S 6 7 21011 21011 14861 White 39
3 PM Sun 77 79 S 6 8 21930 20543 14393 White 35
4 PM Sun 77 78 SSW 8 10 22162 20035 13885 White 34
5 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 12 14 21746 18999 12849 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 6 7 19632 18297 12147 Blue 30
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 1 2 18719 13117 6967 Blue 28
8 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 4 6 15707 8357 2207 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 5 7 8732 8247 2097 Blue 23
10 PM Sun 66 66 SE 1 2 8361 8192 2042 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 65 65 ENE 4 6 8306 8137 1987 Blue 21
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 ENE 3 5 8085 7917 1767 Blue 17
1 AM Mon 61 61 ESE 2 4 8085 7917 1767 Blue 17
2 AM Mon 60 60 SE 1 3 8030 7862 1712 Blue 16
3 AM Mon 58 58 E 0 1 7920 7753 1603 Blue 14
4 AM Mon 59 59 NNE 2 5 7975 7808 1658 Blue 15
5 AM Mon 58 58 NNE 2 5 7920 7753 1603 Blue 14
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 2 4 7756 7588 1438 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 2 4 7865 7698 1548 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 59 59 NE 1 3 7975 7808 1658 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 61 62 NNE 0 1 8140 7972 1822 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 66 69 NNE 1 1 15707 8357 2207 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 70 74 NNE 0 0 19632 18297 12147 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 73 77 W 1 1 22393 19422 13272 White 33
1 PM Mon 74 79 W 2 3 21930 20543 14393 White 35
2 PM Mon 76 80 W 3 4 21701 22299 16149 White 36
3 PM Mon 75 77 W 5 6 22393 19422 13272 White 33
4 PM Mon 77 78 NW 8 10 22162 20035 13885 White 34
5 PM Mon 77 77 NW 10 12 22393 19422 13272 White 33
6 PM Mon 74 74 NNW 11 13 19632 18297 12147 Blue 30
7 PM Mon 74 74 NNW 7 9 19632 18297 12147 Blue 30
8 PM Mon 70 70 NNW 5 9 18002 8412 2262 Blue 26
9 PM Mon 66 66 N 6 11 8361 8192 2042 Blue 22
10 PM Mon 67 67 NNE 4 8 8732 8247 2097 Blue 23
11 PM Mon 67 67 ENE 3 5 8732 8247 2097 Blue 23
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 ENE 5 9 8085 7917 1767 Blue 17
1 AM Tue 63 63 ESE 3 6 8196 8027 1877 Blue 19
2 AM Tue 61 61 SE 0 1 8085 7917 1767 Blue 17
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 0 1 7865 7698 1548 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 60 60 ENE 2 4 8030 7862 1712 Blue 16
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 2 6 7975 7808 1658 Blue 15
6 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 3 6 7756 7588 1438 Blue 11
7 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 3 6 7865 7698 1548 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 3 6 7975 7808 1658 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 60 62 NNE 2 3 8140 7972 1822 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 67 70 N 3 3 18002 8412 2262 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 72 76 N 4 4 21746 18999 12849 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 76 81 NNW 5 6 21470 21800 15650 White 37
1 PM Tue 77 82 NNW 6 7 21240 21312 15162 White 38
2 PM Tue 79 83 NW 7 8 21011 21011 14861 White 39
3 PM Tue 80 83 NW 7 8 21011 21011 14861 White 39
4 PM Tue 79 81 NW 8 10 21470 21800 15650 White 37
5 PM Tue 79 79 NW 11 12 21930 20543 14393 White 35
6 PM Tue 76 76 NW 13 15 21746 18999 12849 Blue 32
7 PM Tue 75 75 NW 10 11 20162 18650 12500 Blue 31
8 PM Tue 69 69 NNW 6 11 15707 8357 2207 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 67 67 N 3 7 8732 8247 2097 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 65 65 N 3 7 8306 8137 1987 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 64 64 NNE 4 8 8251 8082 1932 Blue 20

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com