Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 33 33 NE 9 7222 7184 1034 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 31 31 NE 8 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 31 31 NE 8 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 7 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 49 50 E 3 7802 7556 1406 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 56 57 E 3 8486 8292 2142 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 60 62 SE 5 9362 8719 2569 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 62 64 S 6 9647 9158 3008 Blue 36
2 PM Thu 62 64 S 6 9647 9158 3008 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 62 63 S 7 9504 8939 2789 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 9185 8542 2392 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 59 59 SW 6 8742 8417 2267 Blue 31
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 8298 7887 1737 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 47 47 SW 5 7559 7444 1294 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 43 43 SW 3 7409 7307 1157 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 41 41 SW 3 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 41 41 S 5 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 41 41 S 6 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 S 7 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 40 40 S 7 7308 7270 1120 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 40 40 S 7 7308 7270 1120 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 39 39 S 7 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 39 39 S 7 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 8 7283 7245 1095 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 36 36 S 9 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 34 34 S 9 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 35 35 S 10 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 41 41 S 12 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 48 49 S 14 7710 7519 1369 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 55 56 S 17 8423 8230 2080 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 59 60 S 20 8964 8480 2330 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 60 61 S 22 9185 8542 2392 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 60 61 SW 24 9185 8542 2392 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 58 58 SW 24 8548 8355 2205 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 56 56 S 23 8423 8230 2080 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 54 54 S 22 8298 7887 1737 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 51 51 S 21 7894 7611 1461 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 49 49 S 18 7710 7519 1369 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 46 46 S 18 7521 7406 1256 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 44 44 S 17 7446 7332 1182 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 43 43 S 17 7409 7307 1157 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 43 43 S 17 7409 7307 1157 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 S 17 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 17 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
2 AM Sat 40 40 S 18 7308 7270 1120 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 39 39 SW 20 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 39 39 SW 21 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
5 AM Sat 38 38 SW 22 7283 7245 1095 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 36 36 S 21 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 34 34 SW 18 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 33 33 SW 18 7222 7184 1034 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 34 34 SW 18 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 35 35 SW 20 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 37 37 SW 21 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 37 37 SW 21 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 37 37 SW 21 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 37 37 SW 22 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 37 37 SW 22 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 36 36 SW 22 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 35 35 W 22 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 33 33 W 21 7222 7184 1034 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 31 31 W 20 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 30 30 W 18 7185 7149 999 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 28 28 W 16 7160 7149 999 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 27 27 W 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 W 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 NW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 NW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 NW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 NW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 NW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 24 NW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 NW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 22 NW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 23 23 NW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 NW 10 7160 7149 999 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 33 34 NW 10 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 38 40 NW 10 7308 7270 1120 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 41 43 NW 10 7409 7307 1157 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 42 44 NW 10 7446 7332 1182 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 43 45 NW 10 7484 7369 1219 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 43 44 NW 10 7446 7332 1182 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 43 43 NW 10 7409 7307 1157 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 42 42 NW 10 7371 7295 1145 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 39 39 NW 9 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 35 35 NW 8 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 32 32 NW 7 7209 7172 1022 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 30 30 N 5 7185 7149 999 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 29 29 N 3 7172 7149 999 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 N 3 7172 7149 999 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 28 28 N 3 7160 7149 999 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 27 27 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 27 27 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 26 26 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 24 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 32 NE 5 7209 7172 1022 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 40 41 NE 3 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 46 47 NE 3 7559 7444 1294 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 50 52 N 2 8082 7703 1553 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 51 53 NW 2 8236 7795 1645 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 51 52 NW 3 8082 7703 1553 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 51 52 NW 6 8082 7703 1553 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 7802 7556 1406 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 48 48 NW 7 7617 7481 1331 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 7 7446 7332 1182 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 40 40 NW 7 7308 7270 1120 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 36 36 NW 6 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 34 34 N 6 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 33 33 N 6 7222 7184 1034 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 33 33 N 6 7222 7184 1034 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 N 6 7209 7172 1022 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 31 31 N 6 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 7185 7149 999 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 29 29 N 6 7172 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 7160 7149 999 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 N 9 7160 7149 999 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 34 34 N 10 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 40 41 NE 12 7334 7282 1132 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 47 48 NE 12 7617 7481 1331 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 50 52 NE 12 8082 7703 1553 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 52 54 NE 12 8298 7887 1737 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 53 55 NE 12 8361 8062 1912 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 53 54 NE 12 8298 7887 1737 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 52 52 NE 10 8082 7703 1553 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 50 50 NE 10 7802 7556 1406 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 47 47 NE 9 7559 7444 1294 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 42 42 NE 8 7371 7295 1145 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 38 38 NE 8 7283 7245 1095 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 36 36 NE 7 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 35 35 NE 7 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 34 34 NE 6 7234 7196 1046 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 NE 6 7209 7172 1022 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 31 31 E 6 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 30 30 E 6 7185 7149 999 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 30 30 E 6 7185 7149 999 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 30 30 E 6 7185 7149 999 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com