Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 28 28 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 27 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 SW 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 W 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 32 33 W 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 33 35 NW 10 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 37 40 W 10 5642 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 38 41 W 12 5864 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 38 41 W 12 5864 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 40 42 W 13 6085 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 38 39 W 13 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 W 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 W 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 W 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 SW 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 SW 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 SW 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 SW 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 SW 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 SW 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 24 SW 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 SW 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 22 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 23 23 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 S 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 29 29 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 32 33 SW 13 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 34 35 SW 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 35 36 SW 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 35 36 SW 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 35 35 SW 15 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 34 34 SW 15 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 33 33 SW 15 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 31 31 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 SW 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 SW 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 25 25 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 24 24 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 SW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 23 23 SW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 SW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 SW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 22 22 SW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 23 23 W 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 24 24 W 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 27 27 W 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 29 29 W 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 30 30 W 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 31 31 W 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 32 32 W 12 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 32 32 NW 12 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 32 32 NW 13 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 31 31 NW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 29 29 NW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 27 27 NW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 25 25 N 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 23 23 N 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 22 22 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 21 21 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 20 20 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 19 19 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 19 19 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 19 19 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 18 18 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 18 18 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 17 17 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 18 18 N 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 21 21 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 25 26 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 29 31 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 31 34 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 33 36 N 7 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 34 36 N 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 34 36 NW 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 34 35 NW 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 33 33 NW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 29 29 NW 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 25 25 N 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 22 22 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 20 20 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 20 20 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 20 20 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 19 19 NE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 18 18 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 17 17 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 17 17 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 16 16 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 16 16 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 16 16 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 16 16 SE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 17 17 SE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 21 21 S 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 25 26 S 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 30 32 SW 8 5617 6150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 33 36 SW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 35 38 SW 9 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 36 38 SW 10 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 36 37 SW 10 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 36 37 SW 12 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 SW 12 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 31 31 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 24 24 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 23 S 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 23 23 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 23 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 22 22 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 22 22 S 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 22 22 S 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 S 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 23 S 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 23 23 S 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 S 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 23 23 S 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 S 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 28 28 S 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 30 S 15 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 33 34 S 15 5617 6150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 34 35 SW 15 5617 6150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 35 36 SW 15 5617 6150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 35 35 SW 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 34 34 SW 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 SW 14 5617 6150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 31 31 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 SW 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 SW 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 SW 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com