Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 49 49 SE 2 7254 7195 1045 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 52 53 SE 3 7306 7272 1122 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 64 66 E 3 7435 7397 1247 Blue 22
9 AM Tue 70 74 SE 3 9670 8645 2495 Blue 30
10 AM Tue 76 82 SE 2 11758 11332 5182 Blue 38
11 AM Tue 80 88 W 2 12867 12250 6100 Blue 44
12 Noon Tue 83 92 W 3 14253 13012 6862 Blue 48
1 PM Tue 85 94 W 5 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
2 PM Tue 86 94 W 8 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
3 PM Tue 87 93 W 9 14818 13201 7051 Blue 49
4 PM Tue 87 91 W 12 13664 12822 6672 Blue 47
5 PM Tue 87 89 W 13 13058 12441 6291 Blue 45
6 PM Tue 88 89 W 12 13058 12441 6291 Blue 45
7 PM Tue 86 86 W 13 12484 11867 5717 Blue 42
8 PM Tue 84 84 W 13 12099 11618 5468 Blue 40
9 PM Tue 77 77 W 10 10827 9644 3494 Blue 33
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 9 9272 7582 1432 Blue 28
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 7502 7415 1265 Blue 24
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NW 5 7398 7370 1220 Blue 19
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 7370 7342 1192 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 5 7361 7333 1183 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 5 7352 7324 1174 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 7334 7306 1156 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 7315 7287 1137 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 7315 7287 1137 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 57 58 N 6 7352 7324 1174 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 69 71 N 6 8737 7500 1350 Blue 27
9 AM Wed 75 79 N 7 11384 10501 4351 Blue 35
10 AM Wed 81 87 N 8 12676 12058 5908 Blue 43
11 AM Wed 85 93 N 8 14818 13201 7051 Blue 49
12 Noon Wed 88 97 N 8 16895 15191 9041 Blue 53
1 PM Wed 90 99 N 8 17846 16220 10070 Blue 55
2 PM Wed 91 99 N 7 17846 16220 10070 Blue 55
3 PM Wed 92 98 NW 7 17377 15713 9563 Blue 54
4 PM Wed 92 96 NW 7 16400 14650 8500 Blue 52
5 PM Wed 92 94 NW 8 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
6 PM Wed 93 94 NW 8 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
7 PM Wed 91 91 NW 8 13664 12822 6672 Blue 47
8 PM Wed 88 88 NW 8 12867 12250 6100 Blue 44
9 PM Wed 81 81 NW 7 11641 11057 4907 Blue 37
10 PM Wed 77 77 NW 6 10827 9644 3494 Blue 33
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 5 9272 7582 1432 Blue 28
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NW 5 7502 7415 1265 Blue 24
1 AM Thu 64 64 N 3 7407 7379 1229 Blue 20
2 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 7398 7370 1220 Blue 19
3 AM Thu 62 62 N 3 7388 7360 1210 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 60 60 NE 2 7370 7342 1192 Blue 16
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 3 7352 7324 1174 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 7352 7324 1174 Blue 14
7 AM Thu 60 61 E 2 7379 7351 1201 Blue 17
8 AM Thu 72 74 E 3 9670 8645 2495 Blue 30
9 AM Thu 78 82 SE 3 11758 11332 5182 Blue 38
10 AM Thu 83 89 S 3 13058 12441 6291 Blue 45
11 AM Thu 87 95 SW 5 15889 14090 7940 Blue 51
12 Noon Thu 90 99 SW 7 17846 16220 10070 Blue 55
1 PM Thu 92 101 SW 9 20000 17190 11040 Blue 57
2 PM Thu 93 101 SW 10 20000 17190 11040 Blue 57
3 PM Thu 94 100 SW 12 19378 16712 10562 Blue 56
4 PM Thu 94 98 W 15 17377 15713 9563 Blue 54
5 PM Thu 94 96 W 14 16400 14650 8500 Blue 52
6 PM Thu 95 96 W 14 16400 14650 8500 Blue 52
7 PM Thu 93 93 W 13 14818 13201 7051 Blue 49
8 PM Thu 90 90 W 13 13249 12632 6482 Blue 46
9 PM Thu 83 83 W 10 11906 11501 5351 Blue 39
10 PM Thu 78 78 W 10 11107 9841 3691 Blue 34
11 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 9670 8645 2495 Blue 30
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 9 7600 7433 1283 Blue 25
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 8 7416 7388 1238 Blue 21
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 7 7407 7379 1229 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 63 63 SW 7 7398 7370 1220 Blue 19
4 AM Fri 61 61 SW 6 7379 7351 1201 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 7361 7333 1183 Blue 15
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 7361 7333 1183 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 61 62 SW 6 7388 7360 1210 Blue 18
8 AM Fri 72 74 SW 7 9670 8645 2495 Blue 30
9 AM Fri 77 81 SW 8 11641 11057 4907 Blue 37
10 AM Fri 82 88 SW 9 12867 12250 6100 Blue 44
11 AM Fri 86 94 SW 10 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
12 Noon Fri 88 97 SW 12 16895 15191 9041 Blue 53
1 PM Fri 90 99 W 13 17846 16220 10070 Blue 55
2 PM Fri 91 99 W 14 17846 16220 10070 Blue 55
3 PM Fri 92 98 W 15 17377 15713 9563 Blue 54
4 PM Fri 92 96 W 17 16400 14650 8500 Blue 52
5 PM Fri 92 94 W 16 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
6 PM Fri 93 94 W 16 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
7 PM Fri 91 91 W 15 13664 12822 6672 Blue 47
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 14 12867 12250 6100 Blue 44
9 PM Fri 81 81 W 13 11641 11057 4907 Blue 37
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 10827 9644 3494 Blue 33
11 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 9272 7582 1432 Blue 28
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 SW 7 7502 7415 1265 Blue 24
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 6 7407 7379 1229 Blue 20
2 AM Sat 63 63 SW 6 7398 7370 1220 Blue 19
3 AM Sat 62 62 SW 5 7388 7360 1210 Blue 18
4 AM Sat 60 60 SW 5 7370 7342 1192 Blue 16
5 AM Sat 58 58 S 5 7352 7324 1174 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 7352 7324 1174 Blue 14
7 AM Sat 60 61 S 6 7379 7351 1201 Blue 17
8 AM Sat 71 73 S 7 9471 7856 1706 Blue 29
9 AM Sat 76 80 SW 8 11524 10780 4630 Blue 36
10 AM Sat 81 87 SW 9 12676 12058 5908 Blue 43
11 AM Sat 84 92 SW 12 14253 13012 6862 Blue 48
12 Noon Sat 86 95 SW 13 15889 14090 7940 Blue 51
1 PM Sat 88 97 SW 14 16895 15191 9041 Blue 53
2 PM Sat 89 97 SW 15 16895 15191 9041 Blue 53
3 PM Sat 90 96 SW 16 16400 14650 8500 Blue 52
4 PM Sat 90 94 SW 17 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
5 PM Sat 90 92 SW 17 14253 13012 6862 Blue 48
6 PM Sat 91 92 SW 16 14253 13012 6862 Blue 48
7 PM Sat 89 89 SW 15 13058 12441 6291 Blue 45
8 PM Sat 87 87 SW 14 12676 12058 5908 Blue 43
9 PM Sat 80 80 SW 13 11524 10780 4630 Blue 36
10 PM Sat 75 75 SW 12 10021 9248 3098 Blue 31
11 PM Sat 71 71 SW 12 8737 7500 1350 Blue 27
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 SW 12 7435 7397 1247 Blue 22
1 AM Sun 63 63 SW 10 7398 7370 1220 Blue 19
2 AM Sun 62 62 SW 9 7388 7360 1210 Blue 18
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 8 7379 7351 1201 Blue 17
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 7 7361 7333 1183 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 7343 7315 1165 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 7343 7315 1165 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 59 60 S 7 7370 7342 1192 Blue 16
8 AM Sun 69 71 SW 7 8737 7500 1350 Blue 27
9 AM Sun 73 77 SW 8 10827 9644 3494 Blue 33
10 AM Sun 78 84 SW 9 12099 11618 5468 Blue 40
11 AM Sun 81 89 SW 9 13058 12441 6291 Blue 45
12 Noon Sun 83 92 SW 10 14253 13012 6862 Blue 48
1 PM Sun 85 94 SW 12 15363 13507 7357 Blue 50
2 PM Sun 85 93 SW 13 14818 13201 7051 Blue 49
3 PM Sun 86 92 W 13 14253 13012 6862 Blue 48
4 PM Sun 86 90 W 14 13249 12632 6482 Blue 46
5 PM Sun 86 88 W 14 12867 12250 6100 Blue 44
6 PM Sun 87 88 W 14 12867 12250 6100 Blue 44
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 13 12292 11735 5585 Blue 41
8 PM Sun 83 83 W 12 11906 11501 5351 Blue 39
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 10546 9446 3296 Blue 32
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 9272 7582 1432 Blue 28
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 7502 7415 1265 Blue 24
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 7 7407 7379 1229 Blue 20
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 6 7379 7351 1201 Blue 17
2 AM Mon 59 59 SW 6 7361 7333 1183 Blue 15
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 5 7361 7333 1183 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 57 57 SW 5 7343 7315 1165 Blue 13
5 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 7324 7297 1147 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com