Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 25 25 NE 6 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 24 24 NE 6 7198 7165 1015 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 25 25 NE 6 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 28 28 NE 7 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 37 37 NE 8 7325 7295 1145 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 46 47 NE 9 7423 7392 1242 Blue 27
11 AM Sun 53 55 NE 12 7644 7486 1336 Blue 35
12 Noon Sun 56 58 NE 12 8118 7638 1488 Blue 38
1 PM Sun 59 61 NE 12 9930 8065 1915 Blue 41
2 PM Sun 59 61 NE 12 9930 8065 1915 Blue 41
3 PM Sun 59 60 NE 12 9350 7806 1656 Blue 40
4 PM Sun 57 57 NE 12 7813 7554 1404 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 52 52 NE 12 7487 7447 1297 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 47 47 NE 10 7423 7392 1242 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 43 43 E 10 7383 7353 1203 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 41 41 E 10 7363 7334 1184 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 39 39 E 9 7344 7314 1164 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 7325 7295 1145 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 36 36 E 7 7315 7285 1135 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 E 7 7296 7266 1116 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 33 33 E 6 7286 7256 1106 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 32 32 E 6 7276 7247 1097 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 31 31 E 6 7267 7237 1087 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 29 29 E 6 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 28 28 E 6 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 26 26 E 6 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 26 26 E 6 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 30 30 E 6 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 37 37 E 6 7325 7295 1145 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 43 44 SE 6 7392 7363 1213 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 50 51 SE 6 7473 7435 1285 Blue 31
12 Noon Mon 53 55 SE 5 7644 7486 1336 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 55 57 SW 3 7813 7554 1404 Blue 37
2 PM Mon 56 57 W 3 7813 7554 1404 Blue 37
3 PM Mon 56 57 W 5 7813 7554 1404 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 7644 7486 1336 Blue 35
5 PM Mon 51 51 NW 6 7473 7435 1285 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 5 7423 7392 1242 Blue 27
7 PM Mon 42 42 N 3 7373 7343 1193 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 39 39 E 3 7344 7314 1164 Blue 19
9 PM Mon 36 36 E 3 7315 7285 1135 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 35 35 E 3 7305 7276 1126 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 34 34 NE 3 7296 7266 1116 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 NE 3 7286 7256 1106 Blue 13
1 AM Tue 31 31 NE 3 7267 7237 1087 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 30 30 NE 3 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 30 30 NE 3 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 29 29 NE 3 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 28 28 N 5 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 27 27 N 5 7228 7197 1047 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 26 26 N 5 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 29 29 N 6 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 35 35 N 7 7305 7276 1126 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 43 44 N 8 7392 7363 1213 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 50 52 N 9 7487 7447 1297 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 54 56 N 10 7728 7505 1355 Blue 36
1 PM Tue 56 58 N 10 8118 7638 1488 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 57 59 N 10 8747 7722 1572 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 55 56 N 10 7728 7505 1355 Blue 36
4 PM Tue 53 53 N 10 7507 7460 1310 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 10 7461 7422 1272 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 10 7412 7382 1232 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 41 41 N 12 7363 7334 1184 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 38 38 N 12 7334 7305 1155 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 35 35 NE 12 7305 7276 1126 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 33 33 NE 12 7286 7256 1106 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 32 32 NE 10 7276 7247 1097 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 NE 10 7267 7237 1087 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 30 30 NE 10 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 29 29 NE 9 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 28 28 NE 9 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 27 27 NE 9 7228 7197 1047 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 26 26 NE 8 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 25 25 NE 8 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 25 25 NE 7 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 26 26 NE 7 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 31 31 NE 8 7267 7237 1087 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 38 39 NE 9 7344 7314 1164 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 44 46 NE 10 7412 7382 1232 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 48 50 NE 12 7461 7422 1272 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 50 52 NE 12 7487 7447 1297 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 50 52 NE 12 7487 7447 1297 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 49 50 NE 12 7461 7422 1272 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 47 47 NE 12 7423 7392 1242 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 12 7392 7363 1213 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 41 41 NE 12 7363 7334 1184 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 37 37 NE 10 7325 7295 1145 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 34 34 NE 10 7296 7266 1116 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 32 32 NE 10 7276 7247 1097 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 30 30 NE 12 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 29 29 NE 12 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NE 12 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 28 28 NE 13 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 27 27 NE 13 7228 7197 1047 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 26 26 NE 13 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 26 26 NE 14 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 25 25 NE 14 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 23 23 NE 14 7187 7155 1005 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 23 23 NE 13 7187 7155 1005 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 25 25 NE 13 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 29 29 NE 14 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 34 35 NE 14 7305 7276 1126 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 40 42 NE 15 7373 7343 1193 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 43 45 NE 15 7402 7372 1222 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 45 47 NE 15 7423 7392 1242 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 46 48 NE 15 7436 7401 1251 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 46 47 NE 14 7423 7392 1242 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 44 44 NE 13 7392 7363 1213 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 42 42 NE 12 7373 7343 1193 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 38 38 NE 10 7334 7305 1155 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 35 35 NE 10 7305 7276 1126 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 32 32 NE 9 7276 7247 1097 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 30 30 NE 9 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 29 29 NE 8 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 29 29 NE 8 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 NE 8 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 27 27 NE 8 7228 7197 1047 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 26 26 NE 8 7218 7187 1037 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 25 25 NE 8 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 25 25 NE 8 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 25 25 NE 8 7208 7176 1026 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 24 24 NE 8 7198 7165 1015 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 24 24 NE 8 7198 7165 1015 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 27 27 NE 8 7228 7197 1047 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 32 32 NE 9 7276 7247 1097 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 39 40 NE 9 7354 7324 1174 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 46 48 NE 10 7436 7401 1251 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NE 12 7487 7447 1297 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 52 54 NE 12 7559 7472 1322 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 52 54 NE 12 7559 7472 1322 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 52 53 NE 12 7507 7460 1310 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 50 50 NE 12 7461 7422 1272 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 48 48 NE 10 7436 7401 1251 Blue 28
6 PM Fri 44 44 NE 9 7392 7363 1213 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 8 7354 7324 1174 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 36 36 NE 8 7315 7285 1135 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 34 34 NE 8 7296 7266 1116 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 33 33 NE 9 7286 7256 1106 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 32 32 NE 9 7276 7247 1097 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 NE 8 7267 7237 1087 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 30 30 NE 8 7257 7228 1078 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 29 29 NE 7 7247 7218 1068 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 28 28 NE 7 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 28 28 NE 7 7238 7208 1058 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com