Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 49 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 55 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 62 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 66 NE 9 15616 7149 999 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 64 69 E 8 15825 15596 9446 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 66 70 NE 6 15966 15654 9504 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 68 71 NE 6 16291 15712 9562 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 69 71 NE 6 16291 15712 9562 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 69 69 NE 6 15825 15596 9446 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 67 67 NE 7 15674 11491 5341 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 63 63 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 54 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 61 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 67 E 9 15674 11491 5341 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 66 71 E 9 16291 15712 9562 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 68 73 SE 8 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 70 74 SE 7 17256 16174 10024 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 71 74 SE 7 17256 16174 10024 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 72 73 S 7 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 72 72 S 7 16613 15782 9632 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 70 70 S 7 15966 15654 9504 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 66 66 S 7 15616 7149 999 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 62 62 S 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 S 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 SE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 68 E 8 15732 14803 8653 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 70 73 SE 8 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 72 75 SE 7 17761 16493 10343 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 72 74 SE 6 17256 16174 10024 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 72 73 SE 5 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 72 73 E 5 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 71 71 NE 6 16291 15712 9562 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 69 69 NE 8 15825 15596 9446 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 65 65 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 59 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 66 E 7 15616 7149 999 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 67 72 E 7 16613 15782 9632 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 70 75 E 6 17761 16493 10343 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 71 75 NE 6 17761 16493 10343 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 72 75 NE 6 17761 16493 10343 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 72 73 N 6 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 71 71 N 7 16291 15712 9562 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 69 69 N 7 15825 15596 9446 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 65 65 N 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 57 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 E 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 70 E 7 15966 15654 9504 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 70 75 E 7 17761 16493 10343 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 73 78 E 6 19339 17554 11404 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 74 78 SE 5 19339 17554 11404 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 75 78 SE 3 19339 17554 11404 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 75 76 E 3 18608 16809 10659 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 74 74 SE 3 17256 16174 10024 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 3 16613 15782 9632 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 3 15732 14803 8653 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 62 62 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 E 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 59 SE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 65 SE 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 71 S 7 16291 15712 9562 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 71 76 S 7 18608 16809 10659 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 74 79 S 6 19626 18149 11999 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 75 79 SW 6 19626 18149 11999 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 76 79 W 7 19626 18149 11999 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 76 77 W 8 19049 17121 10971 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 75 75 W 9 17761 16493 10343 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 16931 15905 9755 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 15825 15596 9446 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com