Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 57 57 S 2 7219 7168 1018 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 60 60 S 2 7254 7219 1069 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 66 67 S 3 7333 7298 1148 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 71 74 S 5 8309 7385 1235 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 76 81 SW 7 11700 9689 3539 Blue 28
11 AM Sat 81 87 SW 8 13890 13220 7070 Blue 34
12 Noon Sat 84 91 W 10 16193 14931 8781 Blue 38
1 PM Sat 86 94 W 12 17675 15950 9800 Blue 41
2 PM Sat 87 94 W 13 17675 15950 9800 Blue 41
3 PM Sat 88 93 W 14 17289 15473 9323 Blue 40
4 PM Sat 88 91 W 14 16193 14931 8781 Blue 38
5 PM Sat 86 87 W 15 13890 13220 7070 Blue 34
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 14 13283 11325 5175 Blue 31
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 13 9702 8562 2412 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 8028 7370 1220 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 10 7356 7321 1171 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 9 7333 7298 1148 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 7310 7276 1126 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 7 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 7288 7253 1103 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 7265 7230 1080 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 6 7254 7219 1069 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 59 59 W 5 7242 7202 1052 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 5 7231 7185 1035 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 57 57 W 5 7219 7168 1018 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 7254 7219 1069 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 66 67 W 5 7333 7298 1148 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 72 75 W 5 8591 7726 1576 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 77 82 W 6 12769 9784 3634 Blue 29
11 AM Sun 81 87 W 8 13890 13220 7070 Blue 34
12 Noon Sun 85 92 W 10 16872 15247 9097 Blue 39
1 PM Sun 87 95 W 12 18185 16626 10476 Blue 42
2 PM Sun 88 95 W 13 18185 16626 10476 Blue 42
3 PM Sun 89 94 W 14 17675 15950 9800 Blue 41
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 14 16872 15247 9097 Blue 39
5 PM Sun 87 88 W 15 15092 13625 7475 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 85 85 W 14 13663 12710 6560 Blue 32
7 PM Sun 79 79 W 14 9797 8959 2809 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 12 8309 7385 1235 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 7371 7333 1183 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 7345 7310 1160 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 7322 7287 1137 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 7 7310 7276 1126 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 7 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 7276 7242 1092 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 6 7265 7230 1080 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 7254 7219 1069 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 59 59 W 5 7242 7202 1052 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 7231 7185 1035 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 61 61 W 3 7265 7230 1080 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 68 69 W 3 7356 7321 1171 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 74 77 W 3 9408 8285 2135 Blue 24
10 AM Mon 79 84 W 5 13283 11325 5175 Blue 31
11 AM Mon 84 90 W 6 15547 13860 7710 Blue 37
12 Noon Mon 87 94 W 7 17675 15950 9800 Blue 41
1 PM Mon 90 97 W 8 19153 17508 11358 Blue 43
2 PM Mon 91 98 W 9 19431 17974 11824 Blue 44
3 PM Mon 92 97 W 10 19153 17508 11358 Blue 43
4 PM Mon 92 95 W 10 18185 16626 10476 Blue 42
5 PM Mon 90 91 W 10 16193 14931 8781 Blue 38
6 PM Mon 88 88 W 12 15092 13625 7475 Blue 35
7 PM Mon 82 82 W 12 12769 9784 3634 Blue 29
8 PM Mon 77 77 W 12 9408 8285 2135 Blue 24
9 PM Mon 73 73 W 12 8028 7370 1220 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 10 7386 7344 1194 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 7356 7321 1171 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 7 7345 7310 1160 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 6 7333 7298 1148 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 65 65 W 6 7310 7276 1126 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 5 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 63 63 W 3 7288 7253 1103 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 62 62 NW 3 7276 7242 1092 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 61 61 NW 2 7265 7230 1080 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 70 71 N 3 7386 7344 1194 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 76 78 N 3 9702 8562 2412 Blue 25
10 AM Tue 81 85 NW 5 13663 12710 6560 Blue 32
11 AM Tue 85 90 W 5 15547 13860 7710 Blue 37
12 Noon Tue 89 95 W 6 18185 16626 10476 Blue 42
1 PM Tue 91 97 W 7 19153 17508 11358 Blue 43
2 PM Tue 92 98 W 8 19431 17974 11824 Blue 44
3 PM Tue 93 97 W 9 19153 17508 11358 Blue 43
4 PM Tue 93 96 W 10 18678 17147 10997 Blue 42
5 PM Tue 91 92 W 10 16872 15247 9097 Blue 39
6 PM Tue 89 89 W 10 15320 13746 7596 Blue 36
7 PM Tue 83 83 W 9 13027 9879 3729 Blue 30
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 9702 8562 2412 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 6 8309 7385 1235 Blue 21
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 5 7745 7355 1205 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 3 7371 7333 1183 Blue 17
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 3 7356 7321 1171 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 3 7345 7310 1160 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 66 66 NW 2 7322 7287 1137 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 65 65 NW 2 7310 7276 1126 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 63 63 W 2 7288 7253 1103 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 7276 7242 1092 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 65 65 S 2 7310 7276 1126 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 70 71 SE 2 7386 7344 1194 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 76 78 E 3 9702 8562 2412 Blue 25
10 AM Wed 81 85 SE 5 13663 12710 6560 Blue 32
11 AM Wed 85 90 S 7 15547 13860 7710 Blue 37
12 Noon Wed 88 94 SW 9 17675 15950 9800 Blue 41
1 PM Wed 90 96 SW 10 18678 17147 10997 Blue 42
2 PM Wed 91 96 SW 12 18678 17147 10997 Blue 42
3 PM Wed 92 95 SW 13 18185 16626 10476 Blue 42
4 PM Wed 92 94 SW 14 17675 15950 9800 Blue 41
5 PM Wed 90 91 SW 14 16193 14931 8781 Blue 38
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 13 15092 13625 7475 Blue 35
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 12 12769 9784 3634 Blue 29
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 9003 8006 1856 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 73 73 SW 7 8028 7370 1220 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 6 7386 7344 1194 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 69 69 SW 5 7356 7321 1171 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SW 5 7333 7298 1148 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 66 66 SW 5 7322 7287 1137 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 63 63 S 3 7288 7253 1103 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 62 62 S 3 7276 7242 1092 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 7265 7230 1080 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 7254 7219 1069 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 63 63 S 3 7288 7253 1103 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 68 69 S 5 7356 7321 1171 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 73 75 S 6 8591 7726 1576 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 78 81 S 7 11700 9689 3539 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 82 86 SW 9 13777 12965 6815 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 85 90 SW 10 15547 13860 7710 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 87 92 W 12 16872 15247 9097 Blue 39
2 PM Thu 88 93 W 13 17289 15473 9323 Blue 40
3 PM Thu 89 93 W 13 17289 15473 9323 Blue 40
4 PM Thu 89 91 W 13 16193 14931 8781 Blue 38
5 PM Thu 88 89 W 13 15320 13746 7596 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 85 85 W 12 13663 12710 6560 Blue 32
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 10 9893 9360 3210 Blue 27
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 8 8591 7726 1576 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 7745 7355 1205 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 7371 7333 1183 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 7345 7310 1160 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 3 7322 7287 1137 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 2 7322 7287 1137 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 2 7299 7264 1114 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 2 7288 7253 1103 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 2 7276 7242 1092 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 61 61 W 2 7265 7230 1080 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com