Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 2 7234 7197 1047 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 50 50 N 1 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 56 58 NE 1 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 62 65 NE 1 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
10 AM Thu 67 72 E 2 10647 8345 2195 Blue 31
11 AM Thu 72 78 SE 2 16563 13565 7415 Blue 37
12 Noon Thu 76 82 S 3 18519 16862 10712 Blue 41
1 PM Thu 78 84 S 5 19240 17157 11007 Blue 43
2 PM Thu 79 83 SW 7 18848 17020 10870 Blue 42
3 PM Thu 79 82 SW 8 18519 16862 10712 Blue 41
4 PM Thu 80 82 SW 10 18519 16862 10712 Blue 41
5 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 16935 14885 8735 Blue 38
6 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 16563 13565 7415 Blue 37
7 PM Thu 75 75 SW 12 13668 10508 4358 Blue 34
8 PM Thu 71 71 SW 12 9742 8020 1870 Blue 30
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 10 7777 7525 1375 Blue 27
10 PM Thu 64 64 SW 10 7527 7442 1292 Blue 24
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 10 7443 7379 1229 Blue 21
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 9 7401 7343 1193 Blue 19
1 AM Fri 57 57 SW 9 7359 7319 1169 Blue 17
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 8 7332 7294 1144 Blue 15
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 8 7319 7282 1132 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 7283 7246 1096 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 50 50 S 6 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 5 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 7307 7270 1120 Blue 13
8 AM Fri 57 58 S 5 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
9 AM Fri 62 65 S 7 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 67 72 S 10 10647 8345 2195 Blue 31
11 AM Fri 72 79 S 15 16935 14885 8735 Blue 38
12 Noon Fri 76 83 SW 20 18848 17020 10870 Blue 42
1 PM Fri 77 84 SW 22 19240 17157 11007 Blue 43
2 PM Fri 78 84 SW 22 19240 17157 11007 Blue 43
3 PM Fri 78 83 SW 22 18848 17020 10870 Blue 42
4 PM Fri 78 81 SW 22 17212 16381 10231 Blue 40
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 22 16935 14885 8735 Blue 38
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 20 16064 13176 7026 Blue 36
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 17 11715 8667 2517 Blue 32
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 15 8374 7650 1500 Blue 29
9 PM Fri 65 65 SW 12 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 62 62 SW 12 7467 7400 1250 Blue 22
11 PM Fri 60 60 SW 10 7422 7357 1207 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 10 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 56 56 SW 10 7344 7307 1157 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 9 7319 7282 1132 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 9 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 8 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 48 48 SW 7 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 49 49 SW 6 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 6 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 57 58 S 7 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 62 65 S 8 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
10 AM Sat 67 72 S 9 10647 8345 2195 Blue 31
11 AM Sat 71 78 S 12 16563 13565 7415 Blue 37
12 Noon Sat 74 81 S 13 17212 16381 10231 Blue 40
1 PM Sat 76 83 SW 14 18848 17020 10870 Blue 42
2 PM Sat 77 83 SW 16 18848 17020 10870 Blue 42
3 PM Sat 78 82 SW 16 18519 16862 10712 Blue 41
4 PM Sat 78 81 SW 17 17212 16381 10231 Blue 40
5 PM Sat 77 78 SW 17 16563 13565 7415 Blue 37
6 PM Sat 76 76 SW 17 15369 11519 5369 Blue 35
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 16 10647 8345 2195 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 68 68 SW 15 8046 7555 1405 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 13 7527 7442 1292 Blue 24
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 13 7443 7379 1229 Blue 21
11 PM Sat 58 58 SW 12 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 SW 12 7344 7307 1157 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 12 7319 7282 1132 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 52 52 S 12 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 12 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 48 48 S 10 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 47 47 S 10 7234 7197 1047 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 10 7234 7197 1047 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 49 49 S 12 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 53 54 S 13 7319 7282 1132 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 57 60 S 14 7422 7357 1207 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 62 66 S 16 7658 7495 1345 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 67 73 SW 18 11715 8667 2517 Blue 32
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SW 20 15369 11519 5369 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 73 79 SW 20 16935 14885 8735 Blue 38
2 PM Sun 75 80 SW 20 17074 15886 9736 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 18 16935 14885 8735 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 75 77 SW 18 16064 13176 7026 Blue 36
5 PM Sun 73 74 SW 18 13275 9529 3379 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 72 72 SW 18 10647 8345 2195 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 17 8374 7650 1500 Blue 29
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 17 7777 7525 1375 Blue 27
9 PM Sun 64 64 SW 16 7527 7442 1292 Blue 24
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 15 7443 7379 1229 Blue 21
11 PM Sun 58 58 SW 14 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SW 13 7344 7307 1157 Blue 16
1 AM Mon 53 53 SW 12 7307 7270 1120 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 51 51 SW 10 7283 7246 1096 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 10 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 9 7234 7197 1047 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 47 47 SW 8 7234 7197 1047 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 48 48 SW 8 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 7271 7233 1083 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 52 52 S 10 7295 7258 1108 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 56 57 S 12 7359 7319 1169 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 60 62 S 13 7467 7400 1250 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 63 65 S 15 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 66 69 S 16 8374 7650 1500 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 68 71 S 17 9742 8020 1870 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 69 72 S 17 10647 8345 2195 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 69 71 S 18 9742 8020 1870 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 68 69 S 18 8374 7650 1500 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 67 67 SW 20 7777 7525 1375 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 65 65 SW 20 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 18 7497 7421 1271 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 18 7422 7357 1207 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 17 7359 7319 1169 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 16 7319 7282 1132 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 51 51 SW 15 7283 7246 1096 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SW 14 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 45 45 S 13 7210 7172 1022 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 43 43 S 13 7185 7149 999 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 42 42 S 12 7173 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 41 41 S 13 7161 7149 999 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 41 41 S 12 7161 7149 999 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 42 42 S 13 7173 7149 999 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 13 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 47 48 S 13 7246 7209 1059 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 51 53 S 13 7307 7270 1120 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 54 58 S 14 7380 7331 1181 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 57 62 S 15 7467 7400 1250 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 60 65 SW 15 7557 7465 1315 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 62 67 SW 16 7777 7525 1375 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 63 67 SW 17 7777 7525 1375 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 64 67 SW 18 7777 7525 1375 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 64 66 SW 20 7658 7495 1345 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 63 64 SW 20 7527 7442 1292 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 62 62 SW 20 7467 7400 1250 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 20 7443 7379 1229 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 18 7401 7343 1193 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 56 56 SW 18 7344 7307 1157 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 17 7319 7282 1132 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 16 7283 7246 1096 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 S 15 7258 7221 1071 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 7222 7185 1035 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 44 44 S 14 7197 7160 1010 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 14 7173 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com