Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 54 55 NE 7 7317 7285 1135 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 62 65 NE 7 7448 7392 1242 Blue 25
10 AM Thu 67 72 NE 7 9244 7818 1668 Blue 32
11 AM Thu 71 78 E 7 16915 13520 7370 Blue 38
12 Noon Thu 74 82 E 6 18484 17210 11060 Blue 42
1 PM Thu 76 83 E 6 18713 17925 11775 Blue 43
2 PM Thu 78 84 S 7 19708 18154 12004 Blue 44
3 PM Thu 80 85 S 7 21100 18382 12232 Blue 45
4 PM Thu 80 83 S 6 18713 17925 11775 Blue 43
5 PM Thu 80 81 SW 6 18254 15139 8989 Blue 41
6 PM Thu 81 81 SW 7 18254 15139 8989 Blue 41
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 8 17771 14218 8068 Blue 39
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 10 12594 8211 2061 Blue 34
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 12 7833 7466 1316 Blue 29
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 10 7448 7392 1242 Blue 25
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 7369 7337 1187 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 SW 8 7338 7306 1156 Blue 18
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 8 7317 7285 1135 Blue 16
2 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 7 7285 7254 1104 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 50 50 S 6 7265 7233 1083 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 49 49 S 5 7254 7222 1072 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 48 48 S 5 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 48 48 S 5 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 53 54 S 7 7306 7274 1124 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 60 62 SE 8 7393 7358 1208 Blue 22
10 AM Fri 64 67 S 12 7485 7429 1279 Blue 27
11 AM Fri 68 72 S 15 9244 7818 1668 Blue 32
12 Noon Fri 71 75 S 17 13751 9066 2916 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 73 77 S 20 14827 12265 6115 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 75 79 S 21 17771 14218 8068 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 76 79 S 21 17771 14218 8068 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 76 78 S 21 16915 13520 7370 Blue 38
5 PM Fri 76 77 SW 21 14827 12265 6115 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 21 14827 12265 6115 Blue 37
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 18 13751 9066 2916 Blue 35
8 PM Fri 71 71 S 16 8228 7621 1471 Blue 31
9 PM Fri 67 67 S 14 7485 7429 1279 Blue 27
10 PM Fri 63 63 S 12 7412 7368 1218 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 59 59 S 9 7358 7327 1177 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 S 8 7338 7306 1156 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 55 55 S 7 7317 7285 1135 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 7 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 52 52 S 8 7285 7254 1104 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 51 51 S 9 7275 7243 1093 Blue 12
5 AM Sat 50 50 S 10 7265 7233 1083 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 49 49 S 13 7254 7222 1072 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 49 49 S 14 7254 7222 1072 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 53 54 S 16 7306 7274 1124 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 59 62 S 18 7393 7358 1208 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 63 67 S 22 7485 7429 1279 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 67 73 S 23 10865 8015 1865 Blue 33
12 Noon Sat 69 75 S 25 13751 9066 2916 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 71 77 S 26 14827 12265 6115 Blue 37
2 PM Sat 72 78 S 28 16915 13520 7370 Blue 38
3 PM Sat 73 77 S 29 14827 12265 6115 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 74 77 SW 29 14827 12265 6115 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 74 75 SW 29 13751 9066 2916 Blue 35
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 28 12594 8211 2061 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 26 9244 7818 1668 Blue 32
8 PM Sat 68 68 SW 25 7635 7447 1297 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 24 7430 7379 1229 Blue 24
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 22 7369 7337 1187 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 55 55 SW 21 7317 7285 1135 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SW 20 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 50 50 SW 18 7265 7233 1083 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 49 49 S 18 7254 7222 1072 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 48 48 S 17 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 46 46 S 17 7223 7195 1045 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 46 46 S 17 7223 7195 1045 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 45 45 S 17 7213 7187 1037 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 17 7204 7176 1026 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 49 50 S 18 7265 7233 1083 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 55 58 S 18 7348 7316 1166 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 59 64 SW 20 7430 7379 1229 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 62 69 SW 20 7833 7466 1316 Blue 29
12 Noon Sun 64 71 SW 20 8228 7621 1471 Blue 31
1 PM Sun 66 73 SW 21 10865 8015 1865 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 67 73 SW 21 10865 8015 1865 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 68 73 SW 21 10865 8015 1865 Blue 33
4 PM Sun 69 72 SW 21 9244 7818 1668 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 69 70 SW 22 8031 7484 1334 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 22 7833 7466 1316 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 20 7635 7447 1297 Blue 28
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 17 7430 7379 1229 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 15 7369 7337 1187 Blue 20
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 14 7338 7306 1156 Blue 18
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 12 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SW 9 7265 7233 1083 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 10 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 10 7233 7204 1054 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 7223 7195 1045 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 45 45 S 12 7213 7187 1037 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 13 7204 7176 1026 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 43 43 S 13 7196 7161 1011 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 14 7204 7176 1026 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 47 48 S 15 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 51 53 SW 16 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 55 58 SW 17 7348 7316 1166 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 58 62 SW 18 7393 7358 1208 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 61 66 SW 20 7467 7411 1261 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 63 68 SW 21 7635 7447 1297 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 64 68 SW 22 7635 7447 1297 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 65 68 SW 23 7635 7447 1297 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 66 68 SW 24 7635 7447 1297 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 66 67 SW 24 7485 7429 1279 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 65 65 SW 23 7448 7392 1242 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 21 7412 7368 1218 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 18 7369 7337 1187 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 15 7327 7295 1145 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 12 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 51 51 SW 9 7275 7243 1093 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 7 7254 7222 1072 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 7233 7204 1054 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 46 46 S 7 7223 7195 1045 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 44 44 S 8 7204 7176 1026 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 42 42 S 9 7187 7149 999 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 41 41 S 12 7176 7149 999 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 41 41 S 13 7176 7149 999 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 14 7204 7176 1026 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 48 49 S 14 7254 7222 1072 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 52 54 S 15 7306 7274 1124 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 55 58 S 15 7348 7316 1166 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 57 61 S 16 7379 7347 1197 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 58 62 S 16 7393 7358 1208 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 60 64 S 16 7430 7379 1229 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 61 65 SW 16 7448 7392 1242 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 62 65 SW 16 7448 7392 1242 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 62 64 SW 16 7430 7379 1229 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 61 61 SW 16 7379 7347 1197 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 60 60 SW 15 7369 7337 1187 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 58 58 SW 14 7348 7316 1166 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 55 55 SW 12 7317 7285 1135 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 10 7296 7264 1114 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 8 7265 7233 1083 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 48 48 SW 7 7244 7212 1062 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SW 6 7223 7195 1045 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 44 44 SW 6 7204 7176 1026 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 43 43 SW 6 7196 7161 1011 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 42 42 SW 6 7187 7149 999 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 7 7176 7149 999 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 7 7161 7149 999 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com