Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 49 49 W 14 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 14 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 49 W 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 SW 15 8838 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 71 SW 16 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 70 75 SW 16 16487 15004 5904 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 72 78 SW 17 17203 16467 7367 White 16
1 PM Tue 74 80 SW 17 17631 16799 7699 White 18
2 PM Tue 73 78 SW 17 17203 16467 7367 White 16
3 PM Tue 74 77 SW 16 16877 16385 7285 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 74 76 SW 17 16579 16039 6939 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 74 74 SW 17 16344 14345 5245 White 13
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 17 15232 13363 4263 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 16 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 15 11265 9100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 15 8421 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SW 15 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 SW 15 7998 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 65 SW 15 11479 10506 1406 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 67 69 SW 15 13437 11623 2523 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 68 70 SW 15 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 70 72 SW 15 15232 13363 4263 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 69 71 SW 15 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 70 71 SW 15 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 70 71 SW 15 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 70 70 SW 15 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 68 68 SW 14 12854 11469 2369 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 66 66 SW 14 11639 11256 2156 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 14 8421 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 14 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 14 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 13 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 13 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 W 12 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 W 12 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 10 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 10 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 NW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 8 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 54 N 8 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 NE 7 11265 9100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 63 67 NE 7 12220 11363 2263 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 65 70 E 6 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 67 72 E 5 15232 13363 4263 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 66 70 SE 3 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 67 70 SE 3 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 67 68 S 2 12854 11469 2369 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 67 67 SW 1 12220 11363 2263 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 1 11479 10506 1406 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 1 11372 9242 142 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 1 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 SW 1 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 SW 1 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 SW 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 SW 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 SW 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 SW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 53 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 W 3 11265 9100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 63 67 W 3 12220 11363 2263 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 65 70 W 3 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 67 72 W 3 15232 13363 4263 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 66 70 W 3 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 67 70 W 3 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 67 68 W 3 12854 11469 2369 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 67 67 SW 5 12220 11363 2263 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 11479 10506 1406 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 5 11372 9242 142 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 6 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 6 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 NW 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 N 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 1 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 2 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 54 E 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 63 SE 5 11265 9100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 63 67 SE 6 12220 11363 2263 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 65 70 S 6 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 67 72 S 6 15232 13363 4263 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 66 70 S 6 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 67 70 S 6 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 6 13437 11623 2523 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 67 67 SW 5 12220 11363 2263 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 5 11479 10506 1406 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 64 64 SW 5 11372 9242 142 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 SW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SW 3 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 SW 6 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SW 7 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SW 7 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 SW 8 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 54 SW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 64 SW 10 11372 9242 142 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 64 68 SW 12 12854 11469 2369 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 66 70 SW 12 13941 12150 3050 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 68 72 SW 13 15232 13363 4263 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 67 71 SW 13 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 68 71 SW 13 14432 12775 3675 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 68 69 SW 13 13437 11623 2523 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 68 68 SW 13 12854 11469 2369 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 13 11639 11256 2156 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 65 65 SW 12 11479 10506 1406 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 10 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 SW 10 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 SW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 SW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SW 8 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 SW 8 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 SW 9 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 SW 10 7569 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 SW 10 7569 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com