Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 31 31 NE 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 NE 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 NE 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 NE 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 NE 5 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 42 NE 5 8868 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 NE 5 10053 9606 506 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 50 52 E 3 12267 10047 947 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 51 53 SE 5 12554 10974 1874 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 51 53 S 5 12554 10974 1874 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 50 51 S 5 11899 9900 800 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 48 48 S 5 9905 9458 358 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 5 9462 9100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 41 41 SW 5 8636 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 W 5 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 W 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 W 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 W 9 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 W 9 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 W 12 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 W 13 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 W 13 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 W 14 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 W 15 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 16 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 SW 17 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 SW 20 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 SW 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 SW 22 8868 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 48 SW 24 9905 9458 358 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 50 51 SW 25 11899 9900 800 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 50 51 SW 28 11899 9900 800 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 48 49 SW 28 10053 9606 506 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 46 47 SW 28 9758 9311 211 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 42 42 SW 28 8868 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 38 38 SW 28 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 SW 29 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 SW 29 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 SW 31 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 SW 32 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 SW 33 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SW 37 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 SW 38 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 SW 39 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 40 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 SW 39 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 38 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 SW 37 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 SW 33 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SW 32 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 SW 31 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 SW 30 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 29 29 SW 30 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 29 29 SW 31 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 29 29 SW 32 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 29 29 SW 33 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 29 29 SW 35 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 28 28 SW 31 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 26 26 SW 29 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 25 25 SW 26 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 23 23 SW 24 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 22 22 W 23 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 21 21 W 23 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 21 21 W 22 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 21 21 W 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 21 21 W 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 21 21 W 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 20 NW 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 NW 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 19 19 NW 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 19 19 NW 22 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 NW 22 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 18 18 NW 21 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 NW 20 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 19 19 NW 18 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 21 21 NW 17 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 24 25 NW 16 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 28 30 NW 16 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 30 32 NW 15 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 31 33 NW 14 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 32 34 NW 14 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 32 33 NW 15 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 32 32 NW 14 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 31 31 NW 14 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 NW 13 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 NW 12 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 NW 10 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 24 24 NW 9 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 23 23 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 22 22 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 22 N 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 21 21 N 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 21 21 N 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 21 21 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 20 20 N 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 20 20 NW 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 22 22 NW 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 26 26 NW 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 31 32 W 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 37 W 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 39 41 W 6 8636 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 43 W 6 9099 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 41 42 W 7 8868 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 41 W 7 8636 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 39 W 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 37 W 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 34 34 W 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 32 32 W 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 29 W 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 28 NW 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 NW 5 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 NW 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 NW 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 N 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 24 24 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 N 9 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 N 10 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 N 10 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 35 N 10 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 39 40 N 12 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 44 N 12 9314 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 43 45 N 12 9462 9100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 43 45 N 12 9462 9100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 43 44 N 12 9314 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 N 12 8868 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 40 N 12 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 N 10 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 N 10 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 N 9 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 N 8 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 N 7 8560 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 N 6 8560 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com