Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 19 19 NE 13 8009 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 NE 12 8009 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 NE 12 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 NE 12 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 28 29 NE 13 9073 9100 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 29 31 NE 13 9146 9100 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 31 34 NE 14 9922 9145 45 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 32 35 NE 14 10274 9199 99 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 34 37 NE 14 11015 9908 808 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 36 38 NE 13 11117 10257 1157 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 37 38 NE 12 11117 10257 1157 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 38 38 NE 12 11117 10257 1157 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 38 38 NE 10 11117 10257 1157 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 33 33 NE 10 9565 9109 9 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 26 26 NE 9 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 22 22 NE 9 8009 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 23 23 NE 8 8088 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 NE 8 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 25 25 NE 7 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 NE 7 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 26 26 NE 6 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 25 25 NE 6 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 25 25 NE 6 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 24 24 NE 5 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 NE 5 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 NE 5 9036 9100 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 32 32 NE 6 9205 9100 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 35 35 NE 6 10274 9199 99 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 11015 9908 808 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 38 39 E 7 11206 10620 1520 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 39 40 E 7 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 40 41 E 7 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 41 42 NE 7 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 42 43 NE 7 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 43 43 NE 7 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 43 43 NE 6 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 41 41 NE 6 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 36 36 NE 6 10643 9555 455 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 30 30 NE 5 9109 9100 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 26 26 NE 5 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 24 24 NE 5 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 24 NE 5 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 26 26 NE 5 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 26 26 NE 5 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 26 26 NE 5 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 26 26 NE 3 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 24 24 NE 5 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 NE 5 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 NE 5 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 NE 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 29 29 NE 5 9073 9100 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 31 31 NE 5 9146 9100 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 32 33 NE 6 9565 9109 9 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 33 35 NE 6 10274 9199 99 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 35 37 NE 6 11015 9908 808 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 37 40 NE 6 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 41 44 E 6 12175 11376 2276 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 44 46 E 5 13218 11860 2760 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 46 47 E 5 14138 12143 3043 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 46 46 E 3 13218 11860 2760 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 43 43 E 3 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 37 37 E 2 11015 9908 808 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 31 31 SE 2 9146 9100 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 25 25 SE 2 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 23 23 S 1 8088 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 23 23 S 1 8088 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 25 25 SW 1 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 SW 1 9036 9100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 30 30 SW 1 9109 9100 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 31 31 W 2 9146 9100 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 29 29 W 2 9073 9100 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 27 27 W 3 8999 9100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 25 25 W 3 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 W 3 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 W 3 8999 9100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 30 30 W 3 9109 9100 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 34 35 W 3 10274 9199 99 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 38 40 W 3 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 42 44 W 3 12175 11376 2276 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 45 48 W 5 14972 12423 3323 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 47 50 W 5 16456 13983 4883 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 48 50 W 5 16456 13983 4883 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 49 50 W 5 16456 13983 4883 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 49 49 W 5 15740 13076 3976 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 47 47 W 5 14138 12143 3043 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 12458 11576 2476 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 40 40 W 6 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 36 36 W 6 10643 9555 455 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 33 33 W 6 9565 9109 9 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 30 30 W 6 9109 9100 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 W 7 8999 9100 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 25 25 W 6 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 24 24 W 6 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 23 23 W 6 8088 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 W 6 8088 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 W 6 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 W 6 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 29 29 W 6 9073 9100 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 9565 9109 9 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 36 36 W 6 10643 9555 455 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 40 41 W 6 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 42 44 W 6 12175 11376 2276 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 44 46 W 7 13218 11860 2760 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 46 48 W 7 14972 12423 3323 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 46 48 W 8 14972 12423 3323 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 46 47 W 8 14138 12143 3043 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 45 45 W 8 12458 11576 2476 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 8 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 41 41 W 8 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 39 39 W 8 11206 10620 1520 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 36 36 W 8 10643 9555 455 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 34 34 W 8 9922 9145 45 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 31 31 W 7 9146 9100 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 29 29 W 7 9073 9100 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 W 7 8999 9100 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 26 26 NW 7 8963 9100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 25 25 NW 7 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 N 6 8858 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 N 7 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 24 N 7 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 24 N 7 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 N 8 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 N 8 8476 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 N 9 9036 9100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 32 33 N 9 9565 9109 9 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 36 38 NE 9 11117 10257 1157 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 40 42 NE 9 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 41 43 NE 9 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 42 44 NE 9 12175 11376 2276 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 42 43 NE 9 11890 11287 2187 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 42 42 NE 9 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 41 41 NE 8 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 41 41 NE 8 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 40 40 NE 8 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 40 40 NE 7 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 40 40 NE 7 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 40 40 NE 6 11295 10987 1887 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 41 41 NE 6 11383 11111 2011 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NE 6 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
1 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 11603 11199 2099 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com