Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 WNW 5 12 10844 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 WNW 5 11 10844 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 5 11 8852 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 4 10 8852 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 4 9 7831 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 4 8 7831 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NW 3 8 7831 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 NW 4 7 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 36 37 NW 4 6 13226 12126 3026 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 40 43 NW 4 6 16059 14270 5170 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 43 47 NW 4 6 17448 16458 7358 White 15
11 AM Fri 46 52 NW 4 5 18512 18512 9412 White 20
12 Noon Fri 49 55 NW 4 5 19129 19129 10029 White 23
1 PM Fri 50 56 WNW 6 7 19333 19333 10233 White 24
2 PM Fri 51 56 WNW 8 9 19333 19333 10233 White 24
3 PM Fri 52 55 WNW 10 11 19129 19129 10029 White 23
4 PM Fri 52 53 WNW 11 12 18718 18718 9618 White 21
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 11 13 18512 18512 9412 White 20
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 14 18512 18512 9412 White 20
7 PM Fri 50 50 WNW 10 13 18075 17946 8846 White 18
8 PM Fri 48 48 WNW 8 13 17657 16969 7869 White 16
9 PM Fri 46 46 WNW 6 13 17238 15929 6829 White 14
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 5 12 16059 14270 5170 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 40 40 NW 5 11 14361 13178 4078 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NNW 4 9 13226 12126 3026 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 36 36 SW 3 8 12879 11481 2381 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 36 36 ESE 3 6 12879 11481 2381 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 35 35 NNE 2 4 12528 10749 1649 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 33 33 NNE 2 4 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 32 32 NNE 1 3 10844 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 NE 1 2 7831 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 NE 2 3 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 36 36 ENE 3 4 12879 11481 2381 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 4 5 13908 12835 3735 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 4 15053 13517 4417 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 43 44 SSW 2 3 16594 14951 5851 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 45 46 WSW 2 2 17238 15929 6829 White 14
1 PM Sat 44 45 W 6 7 17027 15441 6341 White 13
2 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 9 11 16594 14951 5851 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 43 43 WNW 13 16 16059 14270 5170 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 41 41 SSW 9 11 15053 13517 4417 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 40 40 ESE 5 7 14361 13178 4078 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 38 38 NNE 2 3 13569 12487 3387 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 36 36 NNE 3 6 12879 11481 2381 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 34 34 NE 4 8 12173 9100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 32 32 NE 5 11 10844 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 NE 6 12 10844 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 32 NE 6 13 10844 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NE 7 14 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 33 33 NE 7 14 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 34 34 NE 7 14 12173 9100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 35 35 NE 8 15 12528 10749 1649 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 33 33 NE 8 15 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 31 31 NE 8 16 8852 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 NE 8 17 7831 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 NE 9 17 8852 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 NE 10 16 11536 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 35 37 NE 11 16 13226 12126 3026 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 38 41 NE 12 16 15053 13517 4417 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 40 45 NE 13 15 17027 15441 6341 White 13
12 Noon Sun 43 50 NE 13 15 18075 17946 8846 White 18
1 PM Sun 44 49 NE 13 15 17866 17465 8365 White 17
2 PM Sun 46 49 NE 14 16 17866 17465 8365 White 17
3 PM Sun 47 48 NNE 14 16 17657 16969 7869 White 16
4 PM Sun 47 48 NNE 14 17 17657 16969 7869 White 16
5 PM Sun 46 46 NNE 14 18 17238 15929 6829 White 14
6 PM Sun 46 46 NNE 15 19 17238 15929 6829 White 14
7 PM Sun 45 45 NE 14 19 17027 15441 6341 White 13
8 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 13 19 16594 14951 5851 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 42 42 E 12 19 15549 13853 4753 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 40 40 ENE 10 16 14361 13178 4078 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 38 38 ENE 8 13 13569 12487 3387 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com