Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 23 23 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 23 23 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 23 23 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 24 24 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 28 28 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 33 33 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 38 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 40 41 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 40 41 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 39 39 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 38 38 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 37 37 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 36 36 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 36 36 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 35 35 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 35 35 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 36 36 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 38 38 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 39 39 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 38 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 34 34 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 31 31 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 28 28 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 28 28 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 28 28 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 30 31 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 32 34 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 34 36 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 35 36 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 35 36 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 34 34 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 33 33 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 32 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 31 31 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 30 30 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 29 29 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 28 28 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 27 27 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 26 26 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 26 26 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 25 25 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 25 25 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 24 24 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 22 22 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 20 20 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 19 19 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 20 20 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 24 24 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 29 30 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 34 36 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 37 39 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 39 41 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 39 41 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 39 40 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 38 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 37 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 34 34 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 31 31 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 29 29 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 28 28 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 27 27 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 27 27 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 25 25 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 24 24 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 24 24 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 25 25 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 24 24 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 23 23 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 23 23 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 25 25 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 30 30 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 37 37 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 43 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 46 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 48 49 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 48 49 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 47 47 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 45 45 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 41 41 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 37 37 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 33 33 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 34 34 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 35 35 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 34 34 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 34 34 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 34 34 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 35 35 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 34 34 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 32 32 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 27 27 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 27 27 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 31 32 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 35 36 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 37 39 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 38 40 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 38 40 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 37 38 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 36 36 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 35 35 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 33 33 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 32 32 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 30 30 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 28 28 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 27 27 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 25 25 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 24 24 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 23 23 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 22 22 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 22 22 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 22 22 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 21 21 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 18 18 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 16 16 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 16 16 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 18 18 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 22 23 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 26 27 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 29 31 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 31 33 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 32 34 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 32 33 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 31 31 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 30 30 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 28 28 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 25 25 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 23 23 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 21 21 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 20 20 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 19 19 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 18 18 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 17 17 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 16 16 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 16 16 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 15 15 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com