Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

1 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 WNW 11 16 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 11 14 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 11 13 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 10 13 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 10 13 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 W 10 13 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 12 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 9 11 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 W 9 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 WSW 6 11 15289 9742 642 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 57 59 SW 6 12 19443 19443 10343 White 9
11 AM Sat 59 61 SW 8 13 19414 19414 10314 White 11
12 Noon Sat 60 62 SW 9 16 19399 19399 10299 White 12
1 PM Sat 61 63 SW 9 17 19385 19385 10285 White 13
2 PM Sat 61 63 SW 9 17 19385 19385 10285 White 13
3 PM Sat 61 62 SW 9 16 19399 19399 10299 White 12
4 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 14 19399 19399 10299 White 12
5 PM Sat 58 58 SW 9 13 19458 17641 8541 White 8
6 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 8 12 19473 15142 6042 White 7
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 11 12727 9149 49 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 8 10 8248 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 WNW 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 WSW 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 W 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 W 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 S 5 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 S 5 10 15289 9742 642 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 55 56 S 6 11 19289 12609 3509 White 6
11 AM Sun 58 59 S 8 13 19443 19443 10343 White 9
12 Noon Sun 59 60 SSW 9 16 19429 19429 10329 White 10
1 PM Sun 60 61 SSW 9 17 19414 19414 10314 White 11
2 PM Sun 60 60 SW 9 17 19429 19429 10329 White 10
3 PM Sun 59 59 SW 9 16 19443 19443 10343 White 9
4 PM Sun 57 57 SW 9 14 19473 15142 6042 White 7
5 PM Sun 55 55 SW 8 12 17816 10209 1109 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 52 52 SW 6 10 10225 9100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 5 9 9149 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 WSW 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 WSW 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 SW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 SW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 WSW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 W 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 W 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 SW 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 SE 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 E 5 9 8248 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 ESE 5 10 12727 9149 49 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 55 56 ESE 5 11 19289 12609 3509 White 6
12 Noon Mon 57 58 E 5 12 19458 17641 8541 White 8
1 PM Mon 58 59 ENE 5 12 19443 19443 10343 White 9
2 PM Mon 58 59 NE 5 12 19443 19443 10343 White 9
3 PM Mon 57 57 NE 5 12 19473 15142 6042 White 7
4 PM Mon 56 56 NE 5 11 19289 12609 3509 White 6
5 PM Mon 54 54 NE 5 10 15289 9742 642 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 51 51 NE 5 9 9751 9100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 5 8 8248 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 N 5 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 N 5 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NNW 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 NNW 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NNW 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 NNE 8 11 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 NE 8 12 12727 9149 49 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 55 58 ENE 8 13 19458 17641 8541 White 8
12 Noon Tue 57 60 ENE 8 13 19429 19429 10329 White 10
1 PM Tue 58 61 NE 6 13 19414 19414 10314 White 11
2 PM Tue 58 61 NE 6 13 19414 19414 10314 White 11
3 PM Tue 58 60 NE 6 12 19429 19429 10329 White 10
4 PM Tue 58 59 NNE 5 11 19443 19443 10343 White 9
5 PM Tue 56 56 NNE 5 10 19289 12609 3509 White 6
6 PM Tue 53 53 NNE 5 8 12727 9149 49 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 49 49 NNE 5 6 8248 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 NNE 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 N 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 NNW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 NNW 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NNW 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 8 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 N 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 8 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 8 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 49 NNE 8 10 8248 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 54 NE 8 11 15289 9742 642 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 55 59 ENE 8 12 19443 19443 10343 White 9
12 Noon Wed 57 62 ENE 8 13 19399 19399 10299 White 12
1 PM Wed 58 62 NE 8 14 19399 19399 10299 White 12
2 PM Wed 58 61 NE 8 14 19414 19414 10314 White 11
3 PM Wed 57 59 NE 8 13 19443 19443 10343 White 9
4 PM Wed 56 57 NE 6 12 19473 15142 6042 White 7
5 PM Wed 54 54 NNE 6 10 15289 9742 642 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 51 51 NNE 6 8 9751 9100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 48 48 NNE 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NNE 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NNE 5 6 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 N 6 8 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 N 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NNE 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NNE 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 NE 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 NE 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 NNE 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 NNE 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 NNE 6 9 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NE 8 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 9 11 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 ENE 10 12 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 52 ENE 10 14 10225 9100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 52 55 ENE 10 16 17816 10209 1109 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 54 58 ENE 9 16 19458 17641 8541 White 8
1 PM Thu 55 58 ENE 9 16 19458 17641 8541 White 8
2 PM Thu 55 57 ENE 8 16 19473 15142 6042 White 7
3 PM Thu 55 57 ENE 8 16 19473 15142 6042 White 7
4 PM Thu 54 55 ENE 9 14 17816 10209 1109 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 9 13 12727 9149 49 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 8 12 9149 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 ENE 8 11 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 ENE 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 6 10 8136 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com