Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 56 56 E 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 NE 2 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 N 2 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 70 N 1 12346 9237 137 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 72 75 N 1 15624 13970 4870 White 7
12 Noon Sat 74 78 NW 2 16269 16269 7169 White 10
1 PM Sat 75 79 NW 2 16484 16484 7384 White 11
2 PM Sat 74 77 NW 5 16055 16055 6955 White 9
3 PM Sat 73 75 W 6 15624 13970 4870 White 7
4 PM Sat 72 73 W 8 15193 12204 3104 White 5
5 PM Sat 71 72 W 9 14097 10830 1730 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 12346 9237 137 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 10 10365 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 7 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 W 7 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 W 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 W 3 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 68 W 3 10365 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 72 W 3 14097 10830 1730 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 73 76 W 3 15840 15840 6740 White 8
12 Noon Sun 75 78 NW 3 16269 16269 7169 White 10
1 PM Sun 76 79 NW 3 16484 16484 7384 White 11
2 PM Sun 76 78 NW 3 16269 16269 7169 White 10
3 PM Sun 75 77 NW 5 16055 16055 6955 White 9
4 PM Sun 76 77 NW 5 16055 16055 6955 White 9
5 PM Sun 76 76 NW 6 15840 15840 6740 White 8
6 PM Sun 75 75 NW 6 15624 13970 4870 White 7
7 PM Sun 73 73 NW 6 15193 12204 3104 White 5
8 PM Sun 70 70 NW 6 12346 9237 137 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 67 67 NW 6 9257 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 NW 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 NW 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NW 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NW 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 66 NE 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 73 E 3 15193 12204 3104 White 5
10 AM Mon 75 80 E 2 16697 16697 7597 White 12
11 AM Mon 79 85 SE 2 17758 17758 8658 White 17
12 Noon Mon 81 88 SE 2 18380 18380 9280 White 20
1 PM Mon 81 87 SE 2 18173 18173 9073 White 19
2 PM Mon 80 85 S 3 17758 17758 8658 White 17
3 PM Mon 80 84 S 5 17550 17550 8450 White 16
4 PM Mon 80 82 SW 5 17124 17124 8024 White 14
5 PM Mon 80 81 W 6 16911 16911 7811 White 13
6 PM Mon 79 79 W 7 16484 16484 7384 White 11
7 PM Mon 76 76 W 7 15840 15840 6740 White 8
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 8 15193 12204 3104 White 5
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 12346 9237 137 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 9257 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 W 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 NW 6 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NW 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 3 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 N 3 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 NW 3 9257 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 75 W 2 15624 13970 4870 White 7
10 AM Tue 76 80 W 2 16697 16697 7597 White 12
11 AM Tue 80 85 SW 2 17758 17758 8658 White 17
12 Noon Tue 82 88 SW 3 18380 18380 9280 White 20
1 PM Tue 82 88 SW 3 18380 18380 9280 White 20
2 PM Tue 81 86 SW 3 17966 17966 8866 White 18
3 PM Tue 80 83 SW 5 17337 17337 8237 White 15
4 PM Tue 80 82 W 5 17124 17124 8024 White 14
5 PM Tue 80 81 W 6 16911 16911 7811 White 13
6 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 16269 16269 7169 White 10
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 7 15840 15840 6740 White 8
8 PM Tue 73 73 W 9 15193 12204 3104 White 5
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 10 12346 9237 137 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 12 9257 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 W 12 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 13 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 13 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 12 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 10 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NW 9 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 NW 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 NW 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NW 7 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 NW 6 10365 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 NW 6 15409 13184 4084 White 6
10 AM Wed 77 80 W 6 16697 16697 7597 White 12
11 AM Wed 80 84 W 5 17550 17550 8450 White 16
12 Noon Wed 82 86 W 6 17966 17966 8866 White 18
1 PM Wed 83 87 W 6 18173 18173 9073 White 19
2 PM Wed 83 87 W 6 18173 18173 9073 White 19
3 PM Wed 82 85 W 7 17758 17758 8658 White 17
4 PM Wed 82 84 W 8 17550 17550 8450 White 16
5 PM Wed 81 82 W 8 17124 17124 8024 White 14
6 PM Wed 80 80 W 9 16697 16697 7597 White 12
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 16055 16055 6955 White 9
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 12 15409 13184 4084 White 6
9 PM Wed 71 71 W 13 13300 10342 1242 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 69 69 W 14 10878 9100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 15 9257 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 W 15 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 15 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 NW 14 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 NW 13 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NW 12 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 10 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 9 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NW 8 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 NW 8 10365 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 W 7 15409 13184 4084 White 6
10 AM Thu 76 79 W 7 16484 16484 7384 White 11
11 AM Thu 80 84 W 6 17550 17550 8450 White 16
12 Noon Thu 82 87 W 7 18173 18173 9073 White 19
1 PM Thu 82 86 W 7 17966 17966 8866 White 18
2 PM Thu 81 84 W 8 17550 17550 8450 White 16
3 PM Thu 80 82 W 9 17124 17124 8024 White 14
4 PM Thu 80 81 W 10 16911 16911 7811 White 13
5 PM Thu 80 80 W 12 16697 16697 7597 White 12
6 PM Thu 78 78 W 13 16269 16269 7169 White 10
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 13 15840 15840 6740 White 8
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 14097 10830 1730 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 14 10878 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 15 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 15 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 15 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 14 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 14 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 13 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 12 8084 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 12 8084 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com