Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 31 31 SW 12 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 30 SW 13 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 35 SW 16 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 44 SW 18 11424 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 51 SW 21 14309 13057 3957 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 48 56 S 22 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 49 57 S 25 15929 14977 5877 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 51 59 S 25 16869 15331 6231 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 52 59 SW 28 16869 15331 6231 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 51 56 SW 28 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 51 54 SW 28 15011 14210 5110 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 51 52 SW 29 14687 13135 4035 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 49 49 SW 28 13146 12765 3665 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 47 47 SW 26 12971 11307 2207 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 46 46 SW 26 12789 9100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 43 43 SW 23 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 SW 20 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SW 20 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SW 21 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SW 20 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 SW 18 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SW 18 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 SW 18 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 SW 17 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 SW 17 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 S 17 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 SW 18 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 32 SW 21 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 33 SW 22 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 33 34 SW 22 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 36 SW 24 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 36 38 SW 23 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 37 40 SW 23 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 38 40 SW 22 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 41 SW 22 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 40 SW 21 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 SW 20 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 SW 17 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 W 15 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 13 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 W 12 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 W 10 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 W 10 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 W 9 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 W 9 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 26 26 W 8 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 W 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 W 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 25 W 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 30 W 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 36 W 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 42 W 8 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 49 W 9 13146 12765 3665 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 47 52 W 9 14687 13135 4035 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 49 54 W 10 15011 14210 5110 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 50 55 W 10 15172 14655 5555 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 51 55 W 10 15172 14655 5555 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 51 53 W 10 14849 13220 4120 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 52 53 W 10 14849 13220 4120 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 52 52 W 10 14687 13135 4035 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 51 51 W 10 14309 13057 3957 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 50 50 W 9 13367 12946 3846 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 47 47 W 7 12971 11307 2207 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 45 45 W 6 12572 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 W 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NW 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 NW 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 NW 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 NW 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 NW 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 N 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 40 N 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 46 NE 6 12789 9100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 48 52 N 6 14687 13135 4035 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 51 56 W 7 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 53 58 SW 7 16405 15138 6038 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 54 59 SW 7 16869 15331 6231 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 54 57 W 8 15929 14977 5877 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 54 56 W 8 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 55 56 W 8 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 55 55 W 8 15172 14655 5555 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 15011 14210 5110 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 7 14849 13220 4120 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 51 51 W 6 14309 13057 3957 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 5 13068 12538 3438 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 12789 9100 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 11424 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 N 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 N 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 N 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SW 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 43 SW 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 49 SW 7 13146 12765 3665 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 51 55 SW 8 15172 14655 5555 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 54 60 SW 10 17322 15814 6714 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 56 62 SW 12 18457 16744 7644 White 18
1 PM Thu 59 65 SW 13 19077 19077 9977 White 21
2 PM Thu 61 66 SW 14 19279 19279 10179 White 22
3 PM Thu 61 65 SW 14 19077 19077 9977 White 21
4 PM Thu 62 64 SW 14 18874 17954 8854 White 20
5 PM Thu 61 62 SW 13 18457 16744 7644 White 18
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 12 16405 15138 6038 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 15011 14210 5110 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 49 49 SW 8 13146 12765 3665 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 46 46 SW 7 12789 9100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 44 44 SW 7 11424 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 S 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 S 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 S 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 45 S 6 12572 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 47 51 S 7 14309 13057 3957 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 51 56 S 8 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 54 61 S 10 18242 16285 7185 White 17
12 Noon Fri 57 64 S 12 18874 17954 8854 White 20
1 PM Fri 59 66 S 13 19279 19279 10179 White 22
2 PM Fri 61 67 S 14 19481 19481 10381 White 23
3 PM Fri 61 66 SW 14 19279 19279 10179 White 22
4 PM Fri 62 65 SW 14 19077 19077 9977 White 21
5 PM Fri 61 62 SW 14 18457 16744 7644 White 18
6 PM Fri 59 59 SW 13 16869 15331 6231 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 56 56 SW 12 15440 14816 5716 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 50 50 SW 12 13367 12946 3846 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 47 47 SW 10 12971 11307 2207 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 45 45 SW 9 12572 9100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 43 43 SW 9 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SW 8 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 SW 8 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 SW 7 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 SW 6 8274 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 8274 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com