Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 29 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 SW 30 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SW 30 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SW 31 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 SW 31 9533 9100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 47 47 SW 31 10558 9810 710 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 51 52 SW 32 13490 12007 2907 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 52 53 SW 32 14274 12364 3264 White 11
1 PM Fri 52 53 W 32 14274 12364 3264 White 11
2 PM Fri 51 52 W 32 13490 12007 2907 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 50 50 W 31 12406 10545 1445 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 49 49 W 31 12046 10325 1225 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 48 48 W 30 10978 10093 993 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 29 10336 9526 426 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 26 10106 9239 139 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 44 44 W 24 9820 9100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 43 43 W 21 9533 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 42 42 NW 17 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NW 15 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NW 13 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 N 12 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 N 12 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 N 10 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 N 10 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 N 10 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 NE 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 26 NE 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 NE 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 38 NE 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 NE 6 9533 9100 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 44 47 NE 5 10558 9810 710 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 46 49 NE 5 12046 10325 1225 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 46 48 NE 5 10978 10093 993 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 46 47 NE 3 10558 9810 710 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 44 44 NE 3 9820 9100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 42 42 E 3 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 E 3 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 E 3 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 E 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 E 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 E 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 SE 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 25 SE 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 SE 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 SE 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 23 S 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 S 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 S 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 22 S 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 S 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 S 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 SW 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 SW 5 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 48 SW 5 10978 10093 993 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 49 52 SW 5 13490 12007 2907 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 50 53 SW 5 14274 12364 3264 White 11
2 PM Sun 51 53 SW 5 14274 12364 3264 White 11
3 PM Sun 50 51 SW 5 12762 10874 1774 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 49 49 W 5 12046 10325 1225 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 6 10558 9810 710 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 42 42 W 5 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 W 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 W 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 29 29 W 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 W 5 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 W 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 26 26 SW 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 SW 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 SW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 25 SW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 SW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 25 25 SW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 SW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 W 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 W 9 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 44 W 8 9820 9100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 49 50 W 9 12406 10545 1445 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 53 54 W 8 14491 12716 3616 White 12
1 PM Mon 54 55 W 8 14707 13342 4242 White 13
2 PM Mon 53 54 W 8 14491 12716 3616 White 12
3 PM Mon 52 52 W 8 13490 12007 2907 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 12762 10874 1774 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 12046 10325 1225 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 7 10106 9239 139 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 41 41 W 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 W 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 W 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 W 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 NW 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 NW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 NW 9 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 NW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 NW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 NW 8 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 NW 8 10558 9810 710 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 52 54 NW 8 14491 12716 3616 White 12
12 Noon Tue 55 57 NW 7 15137 14638 5538 White 15
1 PM Tue 56 58 NW 7 15352 14815 5715 White 16
2 PM Tue 55 57 NW 7 15137 14638 5538 White 15
3 PM Tue 55 56 NW 7 14922 14250 5150 White 14
4 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 14274 12364 3264 White 11
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 12406 10545 1445 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 6 10336 9526 426 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 NE 6 10978 10093 993 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 54 56 NE 7 14922 14250 5150 White 14
12 Noon Wed 57 60 NE 7 15781 15395 6295 White 18
1 PM Wed 58 60 N 7 15781 15395 6295 White 18
2 PM Wed 58 60 N 7 15781 15395 6295 White 18
3 PM Wed 57 58 N 7 15352 14815 5715 White 16
4 PM Wed 55 55 N 7 14707 13342 4242 White 13
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 7 13490 12007 2907 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 10978 10093 993 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 7 9533 9100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 39 39 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 7392 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com