Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 38 38 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SW 12 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 46 S 15 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 50 53 S 16 15446 15039 5939 White 8
10 AM Tue 53 57 S 17 16295 16295 7195 White 12
11 AM Tue 55 61 S 18 17129 17129 8029 White 16
12 Noon Tue 57 63 S 20 17544 17544 8444 White 18
1 PM Tue 58 64 S 20 17750 17750 8650 White 19
2 PM Tue 59 64 SW 20 17750 17750 8650 White 19
3 PM Tue 60 64 SW 20 17750 17750 8650 White 19
4 PM Tue 61 64 SW 20 17750 17750 8650 White 19
5 PM Tue 61 62 SW 20 17337 17337 8237 White 17
6 PM Tue 60 60 SW 20 16922 16922 7822 White 15
7 PM Tue 58 58 SW 18 16504 16504 7404 White 13
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 16 15659 15659 6559 White 9
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 14 15017 11689 2589 White 6
10 PM Tue 47 47 SW 12 11242 9100 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 45 45 SW 10 10137 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SW 9 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SW 9 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 S 10 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 41 S 9 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 48 S 9 11741 10069 969 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 52 56 S 10 16084 16084 6984 White 11
10 AM Wed 56 62 S 10 17337 17337 8237 White 17
11 AM Wed 58 66 S 12 18160 18160 9060 White 21
12 Noon Wed 60 69 S 13 18803 18803 9703 White 24
1 PM Wed 61 69 S 13 18803 18803 9703 White 24
2 PM Wed 63 70 S 13 19007 19007 9907 White 25
3 PM Wed 64 69 S 14 18803 18803 9703 White 24
4 PM Wed 65 68 S 14 18593 18593 9493 White 23
5 PM Wed 65 67 SW 15 18374 18374 9274 White 22
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 15 17750 17750 8650 White 19
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 14 17129 17129 8029 White 16
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 13 16295 16295 7195 White 12
9 PM Wed 53 53 SW 10 15446 15039 5939 White 8
10 PM Wed 49 49 SW 8 12696 10892 1792 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 46 46 SW 7 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 7 8674 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 43 SW 7 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 52 S 7 15232 12332 3232 White 7
9 AM Thu 57 61 S 8 17129 17129 8029 White 16
10 AM Thu 61 67 S 9 18374 18374 9274 White 22
11 AM Thu 64 72 S 10 19409 19409 10309 White 27
12 Noon Thu 65 74 S 13 19810 19810 10710 White 29
1 PM Thu 67 75 S 13 20009 20009 10909 White 30
2 PM Thu 68 75 S 14 20009 20009 10909 White 30
3 PM Thu 69 74 S 14 19810 19810 10710 White 29
4 PM Thu 70 73 SW 15 19610 19610 10510 White 28
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 15 19209 19209 10109 White 26
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 16 18593 18593 9493 White 23
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 14 18160 18160 9060 White 21
8 PM Thu 62 62 SW 13 17337 17337 8237 White 17
9 PM Thu 58 58 SW 12 16504 16504 7404 White 13
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 15659 15659 6559 White 9
11 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 14803 11217 2117 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 9 11741 10069 969 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 46 46 SW 9 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 9 10137 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SW 9 8674 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 SW 9 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 8 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 46 SW 8 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 53 55 S 8 15872 15872 6772 White 10
9 AM Fri 60 64 S 8 17750 17750 8650 White 19
10 AM Fri 65 71 S 9 19209 19209 10109 White 26
11 AM Fri 68 76 S 9 20209 20209 11109 White 31
12 Noon Fri 69 77 S 10 20408 20408 11308 White 32
1 PM Fri 70 78 S 12 20605 20605 11505 White 33
2 PM Fri 72 79 S 13 20800 20800 11700 White 34
3 PM Fri 72 77 S 16 20408 20408 11308 White 32
4 PM Fri 73 76 SW 16 20209 20209 11109 White 31
5 PM Fri 73 74 SW 17 19810 19810 10710 White 29
6 PM Fri 71 71 SW 18 19209 19209 10109 White 26
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 15 18593 18593 9493 White 23
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 14 17750 17750 8650 White 19
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 13 16922 16922 7822 White 15
10 PM Fri 55 55 SW 14 15872 15872 6772 White 10
11 PM Fri 52 52 SW 14 15232 12332 3232 White 7
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 SW 14 12696 10892 1792 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 48 48 SW 14 11741 10069 969 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 46 46 SW 15 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 45 45 SW 16 10137 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 S 17 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 S 18 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 18 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 48 S 18 11741 10069 969 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 54 56 S 18 16084 16084 6984 White 11
9 AM Sat 60 64 S 18 17750 17750 8650 White 19
10 AM Sat 64 70 S 18 19007 19007 9907 White 25
11 AM Sat 66 73 S 18 19610 19610 10510 White 28
12 Noon Sat 67 75 S 20 20009 20009 10909 White 30
1 PM Sat 68 76 S 22 20209 20209 11109 White 31
2 PM Sat 69 76 S 23 20209 20209 11109 White 31
3 PM Sat 70 75 S 25 20009 20009 10909 White 30
4 PM Sat 70 73 SW 28 19610 19610 10510 White 28
5 PM Sat 69 70 SW 29 19007 19007 9907 White 25
6 PM Sat 67 67 SW 30 18374 18374 9274 White 22
7 PM Sat 64 64 SW 29 17750 17750 8650 White 19
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 26 16922 16922 7822 White 15
9 PM Sat 57 57 SW 22 16295 16295 7195 White 12
10 PM Sat 54 54 SW 16 15659 15659 6559 White 9
11 PM Sat 51 51 SW 15 15017 11689 2589 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SW 14 12696 10892 1792 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 47 47 SW 13 11242 9100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 13 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 44 44 SW 13 8674 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 13 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SW 13 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SW 13 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 13 10137 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 53 SW 12 15446 15039 5939 White 8
9 AM Sun 56 59 SW 12 16713 16713 7613 White 14
10 AM Sun 60 65 SW 12 17955 17955 8855 White 20
11 AM Sun 63 69 SW 12 18803 18803 9703 White 24
12 Noon Sun 64 71 SW 13 19209 19209 10109 White 26
1 PM Sun 65 72 SW 13 19409 19409 10309 White 27
2 PM Sun 67 73 SW 14 19610 19610 10510 White 28
3 PM Sun 68 72 SW 14 19409 19409 10309 White 27
4 PM Sun 68 71 SW 15 19209 19209 10109 White 26
5 PM Sun 68 69 SW 15 18803 18803 9703 White 24
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 15 18160 18160 9060 White 21
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 15 17750 17750 8650 White 19
8 PM Sun 61 61 SW 14 17129 17129 8029 White 16
9 PM Sun 57 57 SW 13 16295 16295 7195 White 12
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 12 15659 15659 6559 White 9
11 PM Sun 51 51 SW 9 15017 11689 2589 White 6
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 W 8 12696 10892 1792 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 47 47 SW 7 11242 9100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 46 46 SW 5 10914 9100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 SW 2 7602 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 SW 1 7602 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com