Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 25 25 NW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 49 NW 6 8612 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 56 NW 7 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 56 59 NW 8 11778 10299 1199 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 58 61 NW 9 12360 10728 1628 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 58 60 NW 9 12070 10482 1382 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 57 58 NW 9 10813 10067 967 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 9834 9100 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 50 50 W 7 8762 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 NW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 NW 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 N 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 N 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NE 3 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 SE 5 8762 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 S 6 9570 9100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 55 56 S 7 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 56 57 S 8 10493 9826 726 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 56 56 SW 9 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 55 55 SW 9 10077 9100 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 9570 9100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 50 50 SW 8 8762 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 46 SW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 SW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 SW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 SW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 SW 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 SW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 SW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 SW 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 SW 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 W 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 W 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 W 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 SW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 50 SW 8 8762 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 55 SW 9 10077 9100 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 55 56 SW 9 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 55 56 SW 9 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 53 53 SW 9 9570 9100 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 51 51 SW 9 8919 9100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 48 48 SW 8 8462 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 SW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 W 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 W 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 NW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 NW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 NW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 NW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 NW 8 9076 9100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NW 10 10077 9100 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 54 56 N 12 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 53 55 N 13 10077 9100 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 52 53 N 13 9570 9100 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 50 50 NW 12 8762 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 NW 10 8312 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 N 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 N 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 N 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 NE 9 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 NE 10 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 NE 10 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 NE 10 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 NE 10 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 NE 10 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 NE 10 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 NE 9 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 NE 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 NE 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 33 NE 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 41 NE 9 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 47 NE 10 8312 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 52 NE 10 9076 9100 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 51 54 NE 10 9834 9100 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 51 53 NE 10 9570 9100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 50 51 NE 9 8919 9100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 48 48 NE 8 8462 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 N 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 N 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 N 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 N 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 26 26 N 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 N 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 N 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 24 N 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 25 25 NE 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 36 NE 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 45 NE 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 52 NE 8 9076 9100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 53 56 E 9 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 54 57 S 10 10493 9826 726 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 54 56 SW 10 10308 9551 451 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 53 54 SW 10 9834 9100 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 51 51 SW 9 8919 9100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 48 48 SW 8 8462 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 SW 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 35 35 W 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 W 5 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 W 6 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 W 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 W 7 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 W 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 26 26 W 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 26 26 W 8 8268 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 W 9 8268 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com