Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 30 30 SW 6 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 SW 6 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 S 8 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 35 SW 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 46 S 10 10174 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 50 53 S 13 12431 11914 2814 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 54 57 SW 15 15833 12748 3648 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 57 60 SW 16 16911 15756 6656 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 58 60 SW 16 16911 15756 6656 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 60 61 SW 17 17963 16080 6980 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 60 61 SW 17 17963 16080 6980 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 60 60 SW 17 16911 15756 6656 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 16 15833 12748 3648 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 14 12795 12142 3042 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 49 49 SW 10 11528 10092 992 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 44 44 SW 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 SW 8 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 SW 8 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 SW 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 SW 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 SW 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 SW 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 SW 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 SW 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 SW 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 SW 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 SW 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 40 SW 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 48 SW 14 11099 9100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 50 53 SW 16 12431 11914 2814 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 53 56 SW 18 15598 12407 3307 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 55 57 SW 20 15833 12748 3648 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 55 57 SW 20 15833 12748 3648 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 56 57 SW 20 15833 12748 3648 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 56 56 SW 20 15598 12407 3307 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 55 55 SW 20 15420 12274 3174 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 53 53 SW 18 12431 11914 2814 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 51 51 SW 16 12157 11085 1985 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 47 47 SW 14 10914 9100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SW 14 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 SW 14 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 SW 14 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 SW 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 33 SW 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 38 SW 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 45 SW 14 8076 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 51 SW 16 12157 11085 1985 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 50 55 SW 18 15420 12274 3174 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 53 57 SW 20 15833 12748 3648 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 54 58 SW 20 16160 14664 5564 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 54 56 SW 21 15598 12407 3307 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 54 55 SW 22 15420 12274 3174 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 53 53 SW 23 12431 11914 2814 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 52 52 SW 23 12290 11489 2389 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 22 11099 9100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 20 8076 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 SW 17 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 SW 17 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 SW 17 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SW 18 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 SW 17 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 W 16 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 W 15 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 W 15 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 W 15 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 W 14 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 W 14 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 29 W 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 33 W 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 39 W 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 45 NW 9 8076 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 44 50 NW 9 11957 10901 1801 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 47 53 NW 10 12431 11914 2814 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 48 53 NW 12 12431 11914 2814 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 49 52 NW 13 12290 11489 2389 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 50 52 W 13 12290 11489 2389 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 50 50 W 13 11957 10901 1801 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 49 49 W 13 11528 10092 992 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 13 10174 9100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 42 42 W 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 W 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 W 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 W 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 W 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 NW 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 NW 7 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 N 7 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 N 8 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 N 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 N 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 N 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 NE 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 32 NE 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 37 NE 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 42 NE 13 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 46 NE 13 10174 9100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 44 49 NE 13 11528 10092 992 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 45 49 NE 13 11528 10092 992 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 46 49 NE 13 11528 10092 992 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 47 48 NE 13 11099 9100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 47 47 NE 13 10914 9100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 45 45 NE 12 8076 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 NE 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 N 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 N 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 32 N 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 N 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 N 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 N 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 NE 12 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 32 NE 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 37 NE 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 42 NE 8 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 46 NE 8 10174 9100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 45 50 NE 9 11957 10901 1801 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 47 51 NE 9 12157 11085 1985 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 49 52 NE 10 12290 11489 2389 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 50 52 NE 12 12290 11489 2389 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 50 50 NE 12 11957 10901 1801 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 49 49 N 13 11528 10092 992 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 47 47 NE 12 10914 9100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 NE 9 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 NE 7 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 NE 6 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 NE 5 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 NE 5 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 NE 3 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 NE 3 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 NE 5 7943 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 NE 5 7943 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com