Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 44 44 SW 16 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 SW 18 9124 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 59 SW 20 11727 11727 2627 White 8
11 AM Tue 60 64 SW 20 12834 12834 3734 White 13
12 Noon Tue 62 66 SW 21 13272 13272 4172 White 15
1 PM Tue 65 69 SW 21 13926 13926 4826 White 18
2 PM Tue 66 69 SW 21 13926 13926 4826 White 18
3 PM Tue 66 68 SW 21 13709 13709 4609 White 17
4 PM Tue 65 66 SW 20 13272 13272 4172 White 15
5 PM Tue 64 64 SW 18 12834 12834 3734 White 13
6 PM Tue 63 63 SW 17 12613 12613 3513 White 12
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 15 11949 11949 2849 White 9
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 13 11504 10656 1556 White 7
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 12 10827 9601 501 White 4
10 PM Tue 51 51 SW 12 9124 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SW 12 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 SW 12 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SW 13 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 SW 13 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 13 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 SW 14 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 SW 14 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 SW 14 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 44 SW 15 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 53 SW 15 9999 9100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 58 62 SW 16 12392 12392 3292 White 11
11 AM Wed 61 66 SW 17 13272 13272 4172 White 15
12 Noon Wed 63 69 SW 18 13926 13926 4826 White 18
1 PM Wed 65 71 SW 20 14358 14358 5258 White 20
2 PM Wed 68 72 SW 20 14573 14573 5473 White 21
3 PM Wed 65 68 SW 20 13709 13709 4609 White 17
4 PM Wed 67 69 SW 20 13926 13926 4826 White 18
5 PM Wed 66 66 SW 20 13272 13272 4172 White 15
6 PM Wed 62 62 SW 20 12392 12392 3292 White 11
7 PM Wed 60 60 SW 20 11949 11949 2849 White 9
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 18 11278 10354 1254 White 6
9 PM Wed 55 55 SW 18 10827 9601 501 White 4
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 17 9999 9100 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 51 51 SW 17 9124 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 18 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SW 18 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SW 20 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 SW 21 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 54 SW 22 10370 9116 16 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 55 59 SW 23 11727 11727 2627 White 8
11 AM Thu 58 63 SW 23 12613 12613 3513 White 12
12 Noon Thu 61 67 SW 24 13491 13491 4391 White 16
1 PM Thu 63 69 SW 24 13926 13926 4826 White 18
2 PM Thu 63 68 SW 25 13709 13709 4609 White 17
3 PM Thu 63 67 SW 25 13491 13491 4391 White 16
4 PM Thu 62 64 SW 25 12834 12834 3734 White 13
5 PM Thu 61 62 SW 24 12392 12392 3292 White 11
6 PM Thu 59 59 SW 24 11727 11727 2627 White 8
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 23 11278 10354 1254 White 6
8 PM Thu 55 55 SW 22 10827 9601 501 White 4
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 21 9999 9100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 51 51 SW 20 9124 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 18 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 17 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 46 SW 16 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 51 SW 16 9124 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 57 SW 15 11278 10354 1254 White 6
11 AM Fri 56 61 SW 14 12171 12171 3071 White 10
12 Noon Fri 59 65 SW 14 13053 13053 3953 White 14
1 PM Fri 61 67 SW 14 13491 13491 4391 White 16
2 PM Fri 62 67 SW 14 13491 13491 4391 White 16
3 PM Fri 62 66 SW 14 13272 13272 4172 White 15
4 PM Fri 62 64 SW 14 12834 12834 3734 White 13
5 PM Fri 62 63 SW 14 12613 12613 3513 White 12
6 PM Fri 61 61 SW 14 12171 12171 3071 White 10
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 13 11504 10656 1556 White 7
8 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 10827 9601 501 White 4
9 PM Fri 51 51 SW 10 9124 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SW 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 SW 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 SW 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 SW 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 SW 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 44 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 49 SW 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 56 SW 7 11053 9984 884 White 5
11 AM Sat 56 61 SW 7 12171 12171 3071 White 10
12 Noon Sat 60 66 SW 7 13272 13272 4172 White 15
1 PM Sat 62 68 SW 7 13709 13709 4609 White 17
2 PM Sat 64 69 SW 8 13926 13926 4826 White 18
3 PM Sat 64 67 SW 8 13491 13491 4391 White 16
4 PM Sat 64 66 SW 9 13272 13272 4172 White 15
5 PM Sat 64 64 SW 9 12834 12834 3734 White 13
6 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 12392 12392 3292 White 11
7 PM Sat 59 59 SW 9 11727 11727 2627 White 8
8 PM Sat 56 56 SW 8 11053 9984 884 White 5
9 PM Sat 52 52 SW 7 9612 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 SW 6 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SW 5 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SW 5 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 SW 5 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 S 5 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 6 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 S 7 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 55 SW 8 10827 9601 501 White 4
11 AM Sun 57 59 SW 8 11727 11727 2627 White 8
12 Noon Sun 61 63 SW 9 12613 12613 3513 White 12
1 PM Sun 63 65 SW 10 13053 13053 3953 White 14
2 PM Sun 65 67 SW 10 13491 13491 4391 White 16
3 PM Sun 65 66 SW 12 13272 13272 4172 White 15
4 PM Sun 65 65 SW 13 13053 13053 3953 White 14
5 PM Sun 65 65 SW 13 13053 13053 3953 White 14
6 PM Sun 63 63 SW 13 12613 12613 3513 White 12
7 PM Sun 60 60 SW 13 11949 11949 2849 White 9
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 12 11278 10354 1254 White 6
9 PM Sun 53 53 SW 10 9999 9100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 50 50 SW 9 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 8 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SW 9 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 SW 10 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SW 12 8606 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 SW 12 8606 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com