Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 42 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 49 E 6 15635 9100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 49 54 E 6 16465 15741 6641 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 52 58 E 6 18362 16710 7610 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 54 59 E 6 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 55 59 E 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 56 59 NE 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 57 58 NE 5 18362 16710 7610 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 57 57 NE 5 17608 16378 7278 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 56 56 NE 5 17133 16042 6942 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 52 52 NE 5 15880 15621 6521 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 47 47 E 5 14740 9100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 43 43 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 46 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 53 E 8 16126 15681 6581 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 53 58 E 8 18362 16710 7610 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 56 61 SE 8 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 58 63 SE 7 20609 19192 10092 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 59 63 SE 6 20609 19192 10092 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 60 62 SE 6 19954 18891 9791 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 61 62 SE 5 19954 18891 9791 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 61 61 SE 5 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 59 59 E 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 55 55 E 3 16801 15850 6750 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 51 51 E 3 15755 14852 5752 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 46 46 E 3 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 E 9 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 SE 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 SE 8 15635 9100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 52 53 SE 7 16126 15681 6581 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 56 58 SE 7 18362 16710 7610 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SE 6 19302 17449 8349 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 59 61 SE 6 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 59 61 SE 5 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 58 59 SE 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 17608 16378 7278 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 55 55 E 5 16801 15850 6750 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 16126 15681 6581 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 50 50 NE 6 15695 12765 3665 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 47 47 NE 6 14740 9100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 44 44 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 49 E 3 15635 9100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 51 54 SE 3 16465 15741 6641 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 54 58 SE 3 18362 16710 7610 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 57 61 SE 3 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 58 62 SE 2 19954 18891 9791 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 59 62 S 2 19954 18891 9791 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 59 61 N 3 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 59 60 N 5 19302 17449 8349 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 59 59 N 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 57 57 N 6 17608 16378 7278 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 6 16126 15681 6581 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 6 15635 9100 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 46 46 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 NE 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 E 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 SE 5 15635 9100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 52 55 SE 5 16801 15850 6750 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 56 60 SE 3 19302 17449 8349 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 59 63 SE 3 20609 19192 10092 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 61 65 SE 3 21557 19788 10688 White 18
2 PM Fri 62 66 SE 3 21758 20348 11248 White 19
3 PM Fri 62 64 SE 3 21228 19491 10391 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 62 63 SE 3 20609 19192 10092 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 61 61 SE 3 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 59 59 SE 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 55 55 SE 5 16801 15850 6750 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 51 51 SE 5 15755 14852 5752 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 47 47 SE 5 14740 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 45 45 SE 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 SE 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SE 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 SE 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 S 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 S 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 S 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 S 5 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 SW 5 14740 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 51 52 SW 5 15880 15621 6521 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 56 59 SW 5 18998 17039 7939 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 59 63 SW 5 20609 19192 10092 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 62 66 SW 6 21758 20348 11248 White 19
1 PM Sat 63 67 SW 6 21959 20966 11866 White 20
2 PM Sat 64 67 W 6 21959 20966 11866 White 20
3 PM Sat 64 66 W 6 21758 20348 11248 White 19
4 PM Sat 64 65 W 7 21557 19788 10688 White 18
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 7 20609 19192 10092 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 8 19604 17989 8889 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 17608 16378 7278 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 16126 15681 6581 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 7 15635 9100 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 W 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NW 7 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 8 7467 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com