Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 13 13 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 12 12 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 13 13 NE 12 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 15 15 NE 13 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 21 21 NE 15 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 24 25 NE 17 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 25 27 NE 20 8531 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 26 28 NE 20 8745 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 28 30 NE 20 9114 9100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 28 30 NE 18 9114 9100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 27 28 NE 20 8745 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 27 27 NE 20 8531 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 23 23 NE 20 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 22 NE 20 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 20 20 NE 20 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 19 19 NE 20 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 17 17 NE 20 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 17 17 NE 20 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 16 16 NE 18 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 16 16 NE 18 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 15 15 NE 18 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 14 14 NE 17 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 13 13 NE 17 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 14 14 NE 16 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 14 14 NE 15 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 13 13 NE 14 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 12 12 NE 14 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 15 15 NE 13 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 22 22 NE 15 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 27 NE 16 8531 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 28 30 NE 17 9114 9100 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 30 32 NE 17 9307 9100 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 32 34 NE 16 9623 9209 109 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 33 35 NE 15 9876 9305 205 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 33 34 NE 14 9623 9209 109 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 31 31 NE 13 9210 9100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 28 28 NE 12 8745 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 25 25 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 22 22 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 19 19 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 18 18 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 18 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 17 17 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 16 16 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 15 15 N 6 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 14 14 N 6 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 14 14 N 6 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 14 14 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 14 14 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 14 14 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 14 14 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 16 16 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 22 NE 12 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 31 NE 13 9210 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 36 38 NE 14 10186 9867 767 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 40 42 NE 13 10586 10276 1176 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 42 44 NE 13 11600 10463 1363 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 42 44 NE 12 11600 10463 1363 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 40 41 NE 12 10469 10182 1082 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 37 37 NE 10 10093 9616 516 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 33 33 NE 9 9404 9112 12 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 29 29 NE 9 8959 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 26 26 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 23 23 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 21 21 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 19 19 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 18 18 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 17 17 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 16 16 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 15 15 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 15 15 NE 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 16 16 NE 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 15 15 NE 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 15 15 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 17 17 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 23 23 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 30 31 E 10 9210 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 36 38 E 10 10186 9867 767 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 39 41 E 10 10469 10182 1082 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 40 42 E 9 10586 10276 1176 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 40 42 E 9 10586 10276 1176 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 39 40 E 9 10375 10089 989 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 36 36 NE 8 10005 9402 302 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 33 33 NE 8 9404 9112 12 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 30 30 NE 8 9114 9100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 27 27 NE 7 8531 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 24 24 NE 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 NE 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 21 21 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 19 19 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 18 18 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 18 18 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 18 18 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 17 17 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 19 19 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 NE 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 33 NE 8 9404 9112 12 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 38 40 NE 8 10375 10089 989 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 41 43 NE 8 11100 10370 1270 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 42 44 NE 9 11600 10463 1363 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 42 43 NE 9 11100 10370 1270 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 41 42 NE 9 10586 10276 1176 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 38 38 NE 8 10186 9867 767 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 35 35 NE 8 9876 9305 205 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 32 32 NE 8 9307 9100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 29 29 NE 7 8959 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 24 24 N 7 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 23 23 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 22 22 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 21 21 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 20 20 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 19 19 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 19 19 N 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 19 19 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 19 19 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 19 19 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 19 19 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 21 21 NE 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 26 26 NE 10 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 34 NE 10 9623 9209 109 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 38 40 NE 12 10375 10089 989 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 41 43 NE 12 11100 10370 1270 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 42 44 NE 12 11600 10463 1363 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 42 43 NE 10 11100 10370 1270 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 41 42 NE 9 10586 10276 1176 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 39 39 NE 9 10280 10001 901 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 36 36 NE 8 10005 9402 302 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 33 33 NE 8 9404 9112 12 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 30 30 NE 8 9114 9100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 27 27 NE 8 8531 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 25 25 NE 8 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 23 23 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 22 22 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 21 21 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 20 20 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 20 20 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 20 20 N 9 8501 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com