Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 53 53 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 W 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 56 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 71 SW 9 12572 11159 2059 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 74 80 SW 12 18812 18402 9302 White 13
11 AM Tue 75 82 SW 14 19246 19246 10146 White 15
12 Noon Tue 78 86 SW 15 20108 20108 11008 White 19
1 PM Tue 81 89 SW 17 20718 20718 11618 White 21
2 PM Tue 82 89 SW 18 20718 20718 11618 White 21
3 PM Tue 82 87 SW 20 20314 20314 11214 White 20
4 PM Tue 82 86 SW 21 20108 20108 11008 White 19
5 PM Tue 82 84 SW 20 19697 19697 10597 White 17
6 PM Tue 81 81 SW 20 19021 18947 9847 White 14
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 18 18602 17800 8700 White 12
8 PM Tue 76 76 SW 17 17968 14106 5006 White 9
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 16 13683 11745 2645 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 66 66 SW 15 9308 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SW 14 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 13 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 12 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 12 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 12 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 10 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 12 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 12 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SW 13 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 58 SW 14 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 67 SW 15 10325 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 74 SW 16 16677 12430 3330 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 71 77 SW 17 18180 15029 5929 White 10
12 Noon Wed 73 79 SW 17 18602 17800 8700 White 12
1 PM Wed 75 81 SW 18 19021 18947 9847 White 14
2 PM Wed 76 81 SW 20 19021 18947 9847 White 14
3 PM Wed 77 81 SW 20 19021 18947 9847 White 14
4 PM Wed 77 80 SW 18 18812 18402 9302 White 13
5 PM Wed 77 79 SW 18 18602 17800 8700 White 12
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 17 17968 14106 5006 White 9
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 16 16677 12430 3330 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 15 12572 11159 2059 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 14 11223 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 65 65 SW 12 8151 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 9 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 SW 9 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 59 SW 10 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 67 SW 12 10325 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 72 SW 13 13683 11745 2645 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 71 77 SW 13 18180 15029 5929 White 10
12 Noon Thu 73 79 SW 13 18602 17800 8700 White 12
1 PM Thu 75 81 SW 13 19021 18947 9847 White 14
2 PM Thu 77 82 SW 14 19246 19246 10146 White 15
3 PM Thu 78 82 SW 14 19246 19246 10146 White 15
4 PM Thu 78 81 SW 14 19021 18947 9847 White 14
5 PM Thu 78 80 SW 14 18812 18402 9302 White 13
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 13 17968 14106 5006 White 9
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 13 16677 12430 3330 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 12 12572 11159 2059 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 10325 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 SW 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 W 9 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 W 9 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 59 W 10 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 66 W 10 9308 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 72 SW 10 13683 11745 2645 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 71 77 SW 10 18180 15029 5929 White 10
12 Noon Fri 74 80 SW 10 18812 18402 9302 White 13
1 PM Fri 76 81 SW 12 19021 18947 9847 White 14
2 PM Fri 77 81 SW 12 19021 18947 9847 White 14
3 PM Fri 78 81 SW 13 19021 18947 9847 White 14
4 PM Fri 78 80 SW 13 18812 18402 9302 White 13
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 14 18602 17800 8700 White 12
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 13 18180 15029 5929 White 10
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 13 17348 13604 4504 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 13683 11745 2645 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 68 68 SW 9 11223 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 8 8151 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 SW 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 W 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 W 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 SW 9 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 SW 10 9308 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 71 SW 10 12572 11159 2059 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 72 77 SW 12 18180 15029 5929 White 10
12 Noon Sat 74 79 SW 12 18602 17800 8700 White 12
1 PM Sat 76 81 SW 13 19021 18947 9847 White 14
2 PM Sat 77 81 SW 13 19021 18947 9847 White 14
3 PM Sat 78 81 SW 14 19021 18947 9847 White 14
4 PM Sat 78 80 SW 14 18812 18402 9302 White 13
5 PM Sat 78 79 SW 14 18602 17800 8700 White 12
6 PM Sat 77 77 SW 14 18180 15029 5929 White 10
7 PM Sat 75 75 SW 13 17348 13604 4504 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 12 13683 11745 2645 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 68 68 SW 10 11223 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 64 64 SW 8 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 SW 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 W 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 W 7 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 W 7 8151 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 W 6 12572 11159 2059 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 72 76 W 6 17968 14106 5006 White 9
12 Noon Sun 75 79 W 6 18602 17800 8700 White 12
1 PM Sun 76 80 W 7 18812 18402 9302 White 13
2 PM Sun 76 79 W 7 18602 17800 8700 White 12
3 PM Sun 76 78 W 8 18392 17168 8068 White 11
4 PM Sun 76 77 W 8 18180 15029 5929 White 10
5 PM Sun 75 75 W 9 17348 13604 4504 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 9 17348 13604 4504 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 9 14191 12089 2989 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 12125 10280 1180 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 7 10325 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SW 5 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 5 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 5 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 7795 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com