Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 6 11 7977 7809 1009 Blue 15
1 AM Sun 61 61 SSW 5 8 7977 7809 1009 Blue 15
2 AM Sun 57 57 SW 4 6 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 56 56 SW 4 6 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 56 56 SSW 3 5 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
5 AM Sun 54 54 S 3 5 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 54 54 SSW 4 6 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 56 56 SSW 3 5 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 61 61 SSE 5 8 7977 7809 1009 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 63 64 SSE 5 10 8141 7973 1173 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 67 70 SE 6 11 9651 8301 1501 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 70 71 SE 8 12 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 73 75 SE 9 14 19053 17923 11123 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 74 75 SSE 10 16 19053 17923 11123 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 72 73 S 11 18 18348 9541 2741 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 73 74 SSW 10 17 18702 12425 5625 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 72 72 SW 10 16 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 10 16 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 8 12 8361 8192 1392 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 11 8141 7973 1173 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 61 61 NW 8 12 7977 7809 1009 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 11 7922 7754 954 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 5 10 7922 7754 954 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 5 8 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SW 4 6 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 58 58 S 4 6 7812 7645 845 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 57 57 S 4 6 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 6 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 55 55 S 3 5 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 3 5 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 53 53 S 3 5 7539 7373 573 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 3 5 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 60 60 SSE 5 8 7922 7754 954 Blue 14
9 AM Mon 62 63 SSE 4 6 8086 7918 1118 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 65 67 SE 4 6 8306 8137 1337 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 67 68 ESE 5 8 8361 8192 1392 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 70 71 E 6 11 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 70 71 SSE 8 12 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 69 70 SW 8 13 9651 8301 1501 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 68 69 SW 8 13 8720 8246 1446 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 67 67 SSW 8 12 8306 8137 1337 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 8 12 8251 8082 1282 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 6 11 8141 7973 1173 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 6 11 7977 7809 1009 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 6 11 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 6 11 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 56 56 SSW 6 11 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 56 56 S 6 11 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SSW 5 10 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 8 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 55 55 SW 4 6 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 53 53 WSW 4 6 7539 7373 573 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 52 52 W 3 5 7485 7319 519 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 51 51 W 3 5 7430 7264 464 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 3 5 7485 7319 519 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 3 5 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 3 5 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 59 60 N 4 6 7922 7754 954 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 61 63 NE 4 8 8086 7918 1118 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 63 66 NE 5 8 8251 8082 1282 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 65 68 NE 5 10 8361 8192 1392 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 67 70 NE 6 11 9651 8301 1501 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 69 72 NNE 8 12 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 70 72 NNE 8 12 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 70 71 N 8 11 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 69 69 N 6 11 8720 8246 1446 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 66 66 N 5 9 8251 8082 1282 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 4 6 8031 7863 1063 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 3 5 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 57 57 WNW 4 6 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 8 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 56 56 W 5 10 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 W 5 9 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 5 8 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 52 52 W 4 6 7485 7319 519 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 4 6 7430 7264 464 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 3 5 7376 7210 410 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 3 5 7376 7210 410 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 51 51 NW 3 5 7430 7264 464 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 53 53 NW 4 6 7539 7373 573 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 4 6 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 58 59 N 5 8 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 62 65 NNE 5 9 8196 8027 1227 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 64 68 NNE 6 11 8361 8192 1392 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 67 71 NNE 8 12 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 68 72 NNE 9 13 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 70 73 NNE 9 14 18348 9541 2741 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 71 73 NNE 9 14 18348 9541 2741 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 71 72 NNE 9 14 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 70 70 NNE 8 13 9651 8301 1501 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 67 67 N 6 11 8306 8137 1337 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 63 63 N 5 10 8086 7918 1118 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 5 8 7922 7754 954 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 5 9 7812 7645 845 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 57 57 NNW 6 10 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 6 11 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NNW 6 10 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 54 54 NW 5 9 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 53 53 NW 4 6 7539 7373 573 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 4 6 7430 7264 464 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 5 7321 7156 356 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 5 7321 7156 356 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 50 50 N 3 5 7376 7210 410 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 3 5 7485 7319 519 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 5 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 58 59 ENE 4 6 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 60 62 ENE 5 9 8031 7863 1063 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 63 66 ENE 6 11 8251 8082 1282 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 65 69 ENE 8 12 8720 8246 1446 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 67 70 ENE 9 13 9651 8301 1501 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 69 72 ENE 9 14 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 70 72 ENE 9 14 17989 8411 1611 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 70 71 NE 9 14 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 69 69 NE 9 14 8720 8246 1446 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 66 66 NE 8 13 8251 8082 1282 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 63 63 ENE 6 11 8086 7918 1118 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 60 60 ENE 5 10 7922 7754 954 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 59 59 E 5 9 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 58 58 SE 5 9 7812 7645 845 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 58 58 SSE 5 8 7812 7645 845 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 SSE 4 8 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 4 6 7703 7536 736 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 54 54 SE 3 5 7594 7427 627 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 5 7485 7319 519 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 4 7376 7210 410 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 4 7321 7156 356 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 50 50 SE 2 4 7376 7210 410 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 2 4 7485 7319 519 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 4 7648 7482 682 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 57 58 E 4 8 7812 7645 845 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 60 62 ESE 6 10 8031 7863 1063 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 62 65 ESE 8 13 8196 8027 1227 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 64 67 ESE 9 14 8306 8137 1337 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 66 69 E 9 14 8720 8246 1446 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 68 71 E 9 14 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 69 71 E 9 14 15194 8356 1556 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 69 70 E 8 13 9651 8301 1501 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 68 68 E 8 12 8361 8192 1392 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 65 65 E 5 10 8196 8027 1227 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 62 62 SSE 4 8 8031 7863 1063 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 59 59 S 3 5 7867 7700 900 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 57 57 S 4 6 7758 7591 791 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 5 8 7758 7591 791 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com