Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Altitude (f): 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 55 55 W 6 7350 7323 523 Blue 14
7 AM Tue 56 57 W 5 7369 7341 541 Blue 16
8 AM Tue 66 68 W 3 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
9 AM Tue 71 75 N 3 11102 9836 3036 Blue 34
10 AM Tue 75 81 N 3 12104 11620 4820 Blue 40
11 AM Tue 79 87 N 3 13261 12643 5843 Blue 46
12 Noon Tue 82 91 NE 3 15419 13561 6761 Blue 50
1 PM Tue 85 94 NE 5 16960 15254 8454 Blue 53
2 PM Tue 87 95 NE 6 17445 15780 8980 Blue 54
3 PM Tue 88 94 NE 5 16960 15254 8454 Blue 53
4 PM Tue 88 92 N 6 15949 14147 7347 Blue 51
5 PM Tue 88 90 N 6 14870 13217 6417 Blue 49
6 PM Tue 85 85 NW 6 12877 12259 5459 Blue 44
7 PM Tue 84 84 NW 6 12684 12066 5266 Blue 43
8 PM Tue 81 81 NW 7 12104 11620 4820 Blue 40
9 PM Tue 77 77 W 7 11524 10778 3978 Blue 36
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 9 10537 9438 2638 Blue 32
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 10 9460 7837 1037 Blue 29
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 10 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
1 AM Wed 67 67 NW 10 7853 7464 664 Blue 26
2 AM Wed 66 66 NW 9 7574 7430 630 Blue 25
3 AM Wed 65 65 NW 9 7498 7414 614 Blue 24
4 AM Wed 63 63 NW 8 7432 7396 596 Blue 22
5 AM Wed 61 61 NW 8 7406 7378 578 Blue 20
6 AM Wed 59 59 NW 8 7387 7359 559 Blue 18
7 AM Wed 60 61 NW 8 7406 7378 578 Blue 20
8 AM Wed 70 72 N 8 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
9 AM Wed 74 78 N 9 11641 11057 4257 Blue 37
10 AM Wed 78 84 N 9 12684 12066 5266 Blue 43
11 AM Wed 82 90 N 9 14870 13217 6417 Blue 49
12 Noon Wed 86 95 N 8 17445 15780 8980 Blue 54
1 PM Wed 88 97 N 8 19610 16784 9984 Blue 56
2 PM Wed 90 98 N 8 20084 17265 10465 Blue 57
3 PM Wed 91 97 N 8 19610 16784 9984 Blue 56
4 PM Wed 91 95 N 9 17445 15780 8980 Blue 54
5 PM Wed 91 93 N 9 16462 14711 7911 Blue 52
6 PM Wed 88 88 N 9 13709 12835 6035 Blue 47
7 PM Wed 87 87 N 9 13261 12643 5843 Blue 46
8 PM Wed 84 84 N 7 12684 12066 5266 Blue 43
9 PM Wed 80 80 N 6 11909 11503 4703 Blue 39
10 PM Wed 76 76 N 6 11381 10497 3697 Blue 35
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 6 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 6 9660 8592 1792 Blue 30
1 AM Thu 69 69 W 5 9259 7561 761 Blue 28
2 AM Thu 68 68 E 5 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
3 AM Thu 67 67 E 5 7853 7464 664 Blue 26
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 7498 7414 614 Blue 24
5 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 7432 7396 596 Blue 22
6 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 7406 7378 578 Blue 20
7 AM Thu 62 63 SE 3 7432 7396 596 Blue 22
8 AM Thu 73 75 SE 5 11102 9836 3036 Blue 34
9 AM Thu 77 81 SE 5 12104 11620 4820 Blue 40
10 AM Thu 81 87 SE 6 13261 12643 5843 Blue 46
11 AM Thu 86 94 SE 6 16960 15254 8454 Blue 53
12 Noon Thu 89 98 SE 7 20084 17265 10465 Blue 57
1 PM Thu 92 101 SE 7 21432 19863 13063 Blue 60
2 PM Thu 94 102 SE 7 22603 20322 13522 Blue 61
3 PM Thu 95 101 SE 6 21432 19863 13063 Blue 60
4 PM Thu 95 99 S 7 20545 17734 10934 Blue 58
5 PM Thu 95 97 SW 5 19610 16784 9984 Blue 56
6 PM Thu 92 92 W 5 15949 14147 7347 Blue 51
7 PM Thu 91 91 W 5 15419 13561 6761 Blue 50
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 7 13709 12835 6035 Blue 47
9 PM Thu 84 84 W 7 12684 12066 5266 Blue 43
10 PM Thu 80 80 W 9 11909 11503 4703 Blue 39
11 PM Thu 77 77 W 12 11524 10778 3978 Blue 36
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 14 11102 9836 3036 Blue 34
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 14 10820 9637 2837 Blue 33
2 AM Fri 73 73 W 13 10537 9438 2638 Blue 32
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 12 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
4 AM Fri 70 70 W 10 9460 7837 1037 Blue 29
5 AM Fri 68 68 W 10 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
6 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 7574 7430 630 Blue 25
7 AM Fri 67 68 W 9 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
8 AM Fri 76 78 W 9 11641 11057 4257 Blue 37
9 AM Fri 80 84 W 10 12684 12066 5266 Blue 43
10 AM Fri 84 90 W 10 14870 13217 6417 Blue 49
11 AM Fri 88 96 W 12 17951 16289 9489 Blue 55
12 Noon Fri 91 100 W 12 20994 18970 12170 Blue 59
1 PM Fri 94 103 W 13 24008 20769 13969 Blue 62
2 PM Fri 95 103 W 14 24008 20769 13969 Blue 62
3 PM Fri 96 102 W 15 22603 20322 13522 Blue 61
4 PM Fri 96 100 W 17 20994 18970 12170 Blue 59
5 PM Fri 96 98 W 17 20084 17265 10465 Blue 57
6 PM Fri 93 93 W 17 16462 14711 7911 Blue 52
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 17 15949 14147 7347 Blue 51
8 PM Fri 89 89 W 17 14301 13026 6226 Blue 48
9 PM Fri 84 84 W 16 12684 12066 5266 Blue 43
10 PM Fri 80 80 W 15 11909 11503 4703 Blue 39
11 PM Fri 76 76 W 15 11381 10497 3697 Blue 35
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 W 14 10820 9637 2837 Blue 33
1 AM Sat 72 72 W 13 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
2 AM Sat 72 72 W 12 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
3 AM Sat 70 70 W 10 9460 7837 1037 Blue 29
4 AM Sat 68 68 NW 9 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
5 AM Sat 66 66 NW 9 7574 7430 630 Blue 25
6 AM Sat 64 64 NW 8 7465 7405 605 Blue 23
7 AM Sat 65 66 NW 7 7574 7430 630 Blue 25
8 AM Sat 74 76 NW 6 11381 10497 3697 Blue 35
9 AM Sat 78 82 NW 6 12298 11738 4938 Blue 41
10 AM Sat 81 87 NW 6 13261 12643 5843 Blue 46
11 AM Sat 85 93 SW 6 16462 14711 7911 Blue 52
12 Noon Sat 88 97 SW 7 19610 16784 9984 Blue 56
1 PM Sat 91 100 SW 8 20994 18970 12170 Blue 59
2 PM Sat 92 100 SW 10 20994 18970 12170 Blue 59
3 PM Sat 93 99 W 13 20545 17734 10934 Blue 58
4 PM Sat 93 97 W 14 19610 16784 9984 Blue 56
5 PM Sat 93 95 W 16 17445 15780 8980 Blue 54
6 PM Sat 90 90 W 16 14870 13217 6417 Blue 49
7 PM Sat 89 89 W 15 14301 13026 6226 Blue 48
8 PM Sat 86 86 W 16 13069 12451 5651 Blue 45
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 16 12298 11738 4938 Blue 41
10 PM Sat 78 78 W 16 11641 11057 4257 Blue 37
11 PM Sat 75 75 W 17 11102 9836 3036 Blue 34
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 W 17 10537 9438 2638 Blue 32
1 AM Sun 72 72 W 17 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
2 AM Sun 71 71 W 16 9660 8592 1792 Blue 30
3 AM Sun 70 70 W 15 9460 7837 1037 Blue 29
4 AM Sun 68 68 W 15 8668 7497 697 Blue 27
5 AM Sun 66 66 SW 14 7574 7430 630 Blue 25
6 AM Sun 64 64 SW 14 7465 7405 605 Blue 23
7 AM Sun 65 66 SW 13 7574 7430 630 Blue 25
8 AM Sun 73 75 SW 13 11102 9836 3036 Blue 34
9 AM Sun 76 80 W 13 11909 11503 4703 Blue 39
10 AM Sun 79 85 W 12 12877 12259 5459 Blue 44
11 AM Sun 82 90 W 12 14870 13217 6417 Blue 49
12 Noon Sun 85 94 W 12 16960 15254 8454 Blue 53
1 PM Sun 87 96 W 13 17951 16289 9489 Blue 55
2 PM Sun 88 96 W 13 17951 16289 9489 Blue 55
3 PM Sun 89 95 W 13 17445 15780 8980 Blue 54
4 PM Sun 89 93 W 14 16462 14711 7911 Blue 52
5 PM Sun 89 91 W 14 15419 13561 6761 Blue 50
6 PM Sun 87 87 W 15 13261 12643 5843 Blue 46
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 15 13069 12451 5651 Blue 45
8 PM Sun 83 83 W 15 12491 11873 5073 Blue 42
9 PM Sun 79 79 W 14 11759 11334 4534 Blue 38
10 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 11102 9836 3036 Blue 34
11 PM Sun 72 72 W 14 9957 9239 2439 Blue 31
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 13 9660 8592 1792 Blue 30
1 AM Mon 69 69 W 13 9259 7561 761 Blue 28
2 AM Mon 69 69 W 12 9259 7561 761 Blue 28
3 AM Mon 67 67 W 10 7853 7464 664 Blue 26
4 AM Mon 65 65 W 10 7498 7414 614 Blue 24
5 AM Mon 64 64 NW 9 7465 7405 605 Blue 23

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com