Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Altitude (f): 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 7379 7340 540 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 58 59 SW 6 7379 7340 540 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 65 67 W 6 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
9 AM Sat 71 75 W 7 14035 9290 2490 Blue 29
10 AM Sat 75 80 W 8 18789 15463 8663 Blue 34
11 AM Sat 79 85 W 10 20323 19343 12543 White 39
12 Noon Sat 80 85 NW 12 20323 19343 12543 White 39
1 PM Sat 83 88 W 13 20912 20599 13799 White 42
2 PM Sat 83 87 W 14 20716 20198 13398 White 41
3 PM Sat 84 87 W 15 20716 20198 13398 White 41
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 16 20716 20198 13398 White 41
5 PM Sat 84 85 W 16 20323 19343 12543 White 39
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 16 19929 18583 11783 White 37
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 15 19099 16000 9200 Blue 35
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 14 18089 14784 7984 Blue 33
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 12823 8257 1457 Blue 28
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 10 8282 7589 789 Blue 25
11 PM Sat 70 70 W 13 7922 7512 712 Blue 24
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 13 7596 7455 655 Blue 22
1 AM Sun 67 67 W 12 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 12 7456 7417 617 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 64 64 W 9 7443 7404 604 Blue 18
4 AM Sun 63 63 W 8 7430 7391 591 Blue 17
5 AM Sun 60 60 W 7 7391 7352 552 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 7 7379 7340 540 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 62 63 W 6 7430 7391 591 Blue 17
8 AM Sun 70 72 W 7 9461 7743 943 Blue 26
9 AM Sun 77 80 W 7 18789 15463 8663 Blue 34
10 AM Sun 81 86 W 7 20519 19773 12973 White 40
11 AM Sun 84 89 W 8 21108 20934 14134 White 43
12 Noon Sun 85 90 W 9 21302 21162 14362 White 44
1 PM Sun 85 89 W 12 21108 20934 14134 White 43
2 PM Sun 84 87 W 14 20716 20198 13398 White 41
3 PM Sun 84 85 W 16 20323 19343 12543 White 39
4 PM Sun 84 85 W 17 20323 19343 12543 White 39
5 PM Sun 83 83 W 17 19929 18583 11783 White 37
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 17 19543 17731 10931 Blue 36
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 14 18789 15463 8663 Blue 34
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 10 15570 12535 5735 Blue 31
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 11267 7902 1102 Blue 27
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 7922 7512 712 Blue 24
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 7596 7455 655 Blue 22
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 7 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 7456 7417 617 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 7430 7391 591 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 61 61 SW 5 7404 7365 565 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 59 59 SW 3 7379 7340 540 Blue 13
5 AM Mon 57 57 SW 3 7353 7311 511 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 57 57 SW 3 7353 7311 511 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 5 7404 7365 565 Blue 15
8 AM Mon 65 65 SW 6 7456 7417 617 Blue 19
9 AM Mon 71 72 SW 7 9461 7743 943 Blue 26
10 AM Mon 75 77 SW 7 15570 12535 5735 Blue 31
11 AM Mon 78 81 S 9 19099 16000 9200 Blue 35
12 Noon Mon 80 84 S 12 20126 18962 12162 White 38
1 PM Mon 82 87 S 13 20716 20198 13398 White 41
2 PM Mon 83 87 SW 14 20716 20198 13398 White 41
3 PM Mon 84 87 SW 15 20716 20198 13398 White 41
4 PM Mon 84 86 SW 15 20519 19773 12973 White 40
5 PM Mon 83 84 SW 15 20126 18962 12162 White 38
6 PM Mon 82 82 SW 14 19543 17731 10931 Blue 36
7 PM Mon 79 79 SW 13 18089 14784 7984 Blue 33
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 10 15066 10965 4165 Blue 30
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 9 9461 7743 943 Blue 26
10 PM Mon 69 69 SW 9 7751 7479 679 Blue 23
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 W 9 7443 7404 604 Blue 18
1 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 7430 7391 591 Blue 17
2 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 7417 7378 578 Blue 16
3 AM Tue 60 60 W 6 7391 7352 552 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 7353 7311 511 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 55 55 W 5 7327 7273 473 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 55 55 W 5 7327 7273 473 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 59 60 W 5 7391 7352 552 Blue 14
8 AM Tue 65 67 SW 6 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
9 AM Tue 71 75 SW 7 14035 9290 2490 Blue 29
10 AM Tue 75 81 W 8 19099 16000 9200 Blue 35
11 AM Tue 79 86 W 9 20519 19773 12973 White 40
12 Noon Tue 81 89 W 10 21108 20934 14134 White 43
1 PM Tue 82 89 W 12 21108 20934 14134 White 43
2 PM Tue 83 89 W 13 21108 20934 14134 White 43
3 PM Tue 84 88 W 14 20912 20599 13799 White 42
4 PM Tue 85 87 W 14 20716 20198 13398 White 41
5 PM Tue 85 86 W 15 20519 19773 12973 White 40
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 14 20126 18962 12162 White 38
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 13 19543 17731 10931 Blue 36
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 12 17146 13751 6951 Blue 32
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 12823 8257 1457 Blue 28
10 PM Tue 71 71 W 10 8282 7589 789 Blue 25
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 12 7751 7479 679 Blue 23
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 12 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 10 7456 7417 617 Blue 19
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 7443 7404 604 Blue 18
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 7 7417 7378 578 Blue 16
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 7391 7352 552 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 5 7366 7327 527 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 58 58 W 5 7366 7327 527 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 61 62 W 5 7417 7378 578 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 67 69 W 5 7751 7479 679 Blue 23
9 AM Wed 72 76 W 6 15066 10965 4165 Blue 30
10 AM Wed 76 82 W 8 19543 17731 10931 Blue 36
11 AM Wed 79 87 W 9 20716 20198 13398 White 41
12 Noon Wed 82 91 W 12 21495 21323 14523 White 45
1 PM Wed 84 92 W 14 21689 21619 14819 White 46
2 PM Wed 86 93 W 15 21882 21882 15082 White 47
3 PM Wed 87 92 W 15 21689 21619 14819 White 46
4 PM Wed 88 91 W 15 21495 21323 14523 White 45
5 PM Wed 88 89 W 15 21108 20934 14134 White 43
6 PM Wed 87 87 W 14 20716 20198 13398 White 41
7 PM Wed 85 85 W 12 20323 19343 12543 White 39
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 10 19543 17731 10931 Blue 36
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 9 17146 13751 6951 Blue 32
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 12 12823 8257 1457 Blue 28
11 PM Wed 71 71 W 13 8282 7589 789 Blue 25
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 14 7751 7479 679 Blue 23
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 14 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 12 7481 7430 630 Blue 20
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 10 7443 7404 604 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 62 62 W 9 7417 7378 578 Blue 16
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 7391 7352 552 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 7391 7352 552 Blue 14
7 AM Thu 63 64 SW 8 7443 7404 604 Blue 18
8 AM Thu 69 71 SW 9 8282 7589 789 Blue 25
9 AM Thu 74 78 SW 10 17146 13751 6951 Blue 32
10 AM Thu 79 85 W 12 20323 19343 12543 White 39
11 AM Thu 82 90 W 14 21302 21162 14362 White 44
12 Noon Thu 85 94 W 15 22075 22075 15275 White 48
1 PM Thu 87 95 SW 16 22267 22267 15467 White 49
2 PM Thu 88 95 SW 17 22267 22267 15467 White 49
3 PM Thu 89 94 SW 18 22075 22075 15275 White 48
4 PM Thu 89 92 SW 20 21689 21619 14819 White 46
5 PM Thu 89 91 SW 20 21495 21323 14523 White 45
6 PM Thu 87 87 SW 18 20716 20198 13398 White 41
7 PM Thu 85 85 SW 17 20323 19343 12543 White 39
8 PM Thu 81 81 SW 16 19099 16000 9200 Blue 35
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 15 17146 13751 6951 Blue 32
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 12823 8257 1457 Blue 28
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 14 9461 7743 943 Blue 26
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 SW 14 7922 7512 712 Blue 24
1 AM Fri 69 69 SW 13 7751 7479 679 Blue 23
2 AM Fri 67 67 SW 12 7514 7442 642 Blue 21
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 10 7456 7417 617 Blue 19
4 AM Fri 63 63 SW 9 7430 7391 591 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 60 60 SW 9 7391 7352 552 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com