Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 1 3 20154 18681 10881 White 8
1 AM Sun 65 65 NNE 3 6 19682 18320 10520 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 1 2 19093 17954 10154 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 63 63 ESE 1 2 18733 13167 5367 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 63 63 NE 1 3 18733 13167 5367 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 63 63 E 2 4 18733 13167 5367 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 62 62 SE 1 2 18367 9535 1735 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 60 60 NE 0 0 14934 8352 552 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 60 60 NNE 2 3 14934 8352 552 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 64 66 NNE 2 3 20154 18681 10881 White 8
10 AM Sun 70 73 NE 1 2 21654 21654 13854 White 15
11 AM Sun 76 81 ESE 2 2 21698 21698 13898 White 23
12 Noon Sun 77 81 SSE 3 4 21698 21698 13898 White 23
1 PM Sun 83 88 SSE 4 5 20080 20080 12280 White 30
2 PM Sun 81 84 S 6 7 21001 21001 13201 White 26
3 PM Sun 81 82 S 7 8 21465 21465 13665 White 24
4 PM Sun 80 80 SW 8 9 21930 21930 14130 White 22
5 PM Sun 79 79 WSW 10 12 22163 22163 14363 White 21
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 10 22396 22396 14596 White 20
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 10 13 22078 22078 14278 White 17
8 PM Sun 71 71 NW 3 4 21229 21229 13429 White 13
9 PM Sun 69 69 N 7 10 20802 20123 12323 White 11
10 PM Sun 68 68 NE 4 6 20588 19553 11753 White 10
11 PM Sun 66 66 NNE 2 3 20154 18681 10881 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 N 2 3 19682 18320 10520 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 64 64 NNW 2 3 19093 17954 10154 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 63 63 NNW 3 5 18733 13167 5367 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 63 63 NNW 4 8 18733 13167 5367 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 10 17997 8408 608 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 60 60 N 4 8 14934 8352 552 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 7 18367 9535 1735 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 59 59 N 3 6 9590 8296 496 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 61 61 N 2 3 17997 8408 608 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 65 65 N 2 2 19682 18320 10520 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 68 71 NNE 2 2 21229 21229 13429 White 13
11 AM Mon 71 75 N 0 1 22078 22078 14278 White 17
12 Noon Mon 75 77 WNW 0 0 22501 22501 14701 White 19
1 PM Mon 75 80 W 2 2 21930 21930 14130 White 22
2 PM Mon 77 81 W 4 5 21698 21698 13898 White 23
3 PM Mon 79 81 W 7 8 21698 21698 13898 White 23
4 PM Mon 82 83 W 8 9 21233 21233 13433 White 25
5 PM Mon 81 81 W 6 6 21698 21698 13898 White 23
6 PM Mon 76 76 W 8 10 22291 22291 14491 White 18
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 7 10 22078 22078 14278 White 17
8 PM Mon 66 66 NNE 6 11 20154 18681 10881 White 8
9 PM Mon 70 70 ENE 1 2 21016 20644 12844 White 12
10 PM Mon 64 64 E 3 6 19093 17954 10154 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 64 64 NE 3 5 19093 17954 10154 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NE 3 6 20370 19038 11238 White 9
1 AM Tue 61 61 NNE 3 6 17997 8408 608 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 5 17997 8408 608 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 3 6 18367 9535 1735 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 3 6 9590 8296 496 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 4 8 9590 8296 496 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 4 8 9590 8296 496 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 4 8 9590 8296 496 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 60 60 N 4 7 14934 8352 552 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 63 65 N 3 4 19682 18320 10520 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 67 70 N 2 3 21016 20644 12844 White 12
11 AM Tue 72 77 NNE 2 2 22501 22501 14701 White 19
12 Noon Tue 79 84 NE 1 1 21001 21001 13201 White 26
1 PM Tue 78 83 W 0 0 21233 21233 13433 White 25
2 PM Tue 83 87 W 2 3 20310 20310 12510 White 29
3 PM Tue 80 82 W 5 6 21465 21465 13665 White 24
4 PM Tue 83 84 W 6 6 21001 21001 13201 White 26
5 PM Tue 82 82 WNW 6 7 21465 21465 13665 White 24
6 PM Tue 77 77 WNW 7 8 22501 22501 14701 White 19
7 PM Tue 79 79 NW 4 4 22163 22163 14363 White 21
8 PM Tue 70 70 NW 2 5 21016 20644 12844 White 12
9 PM Tue 63 63 N 2 4 18733 13167 5367 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 67 67 NNE 2 5 20370 19038 11238 White 9
11 PM Tue 66 66 NE 2 5 20154 18681 10881 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com