Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 28 28 W 12 8466 7800 0 White 1
6 AM Sat 28 28 W 12 8466 7800 0 White 1
7 AM Sat 27 27 W 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 26 W 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 27 W 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 30 31 W 9 9135 9135 1335 White 4
11 AM Sat 30 32 W 8 9357 9357 1557 White 5
12 Noon Sat 32 35 W 7 10027 10027 2227 White 8
1 PM Sat 33 36 W 8 10245 10245 2445 White 9
2 PM Sat 33 35 W 8 10027 10027 2227 White 8
3 PM Sat 33 34 W 9 9809 9809 2009 White 7
4 PM Sat 33 33 W 10 9579 9579 1779 White 6
5 PM Sat 31 31 W 12 9135 9135 1335 White 4
6 PM Sat 27 27 W 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 25 25 W 15 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 23 23 W 15 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 W 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 W 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 22 22 W 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 22 22 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 21 21 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 21 21 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 20 20 SW 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 20 20 SW 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 22 22 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 24 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 26 26 SW 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 27 27 SW 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 27 27 SW 13 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 27 27 SW 13 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 27 27 SW 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 26 26 SW 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 24 24 SW 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 23 23 SW 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 22 22 SW 13 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 22 22 SW 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 21 21 SW 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 21 21 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 21 21 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 21 21 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 22 22 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 21 21 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 20 20 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 20 20 SW 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 20 20 SW 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 21 21 SW 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 23 23 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 24 24 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 25 25 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 25 25 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 25 25 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 25 25 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 24 24 W 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 24 24 W 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 23 23 W 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 22 22 W 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 21 21 NW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 20 20 NW 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 20 20 NW 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 19 19 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 19 19 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 19 19 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 18 18 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 17 17 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 16 16 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 15 15 N 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 15 15 NW 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 15 15 NW 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 17 17 W 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 19 19 W 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 22 23 SW 6 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 25 27 SW 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 26 29 SW 7 8689 7800 0 White 2
1 PM Tue 27 30 SW 7 8912 7800 0 White 3
2 PM Tue 27 29 SW 7 8689 7800 0 White 2
3 PM Tue 27 28 SW 7 8466 7800 0 White 1
4 PM Tue 27 27 W 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 26 26 W 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 23 23 W 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 21 21 SW 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 18 18 SW 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 16 16 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 15 15 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 15 15 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 15 15 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 17 17 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 18 18 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 21 21 S 7 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 23 24 S 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 25 27 S 8 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 27 30 S 8 8912 7800 0 White 3
1 PM Wed 28 31 S 8 9135 9135 1335 White 4
2 PM Wed 28 30 SW 9 8912 7800 0 White 3
3 PM Wed 28 29 SW 9 8689 7800 0 White 2
4 PM Wed 26 26 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 24 24 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 23 23 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 20 20 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 20 20 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 20 20 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 21 21 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 S 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 S 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 24 24 S 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 S 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 23 S 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 S 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 20 20 S 12 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 20 20 S 13 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 22 22 S 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 25 S 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 28 28 S 15 8466 7800 0 White 1
12 Noon Thu 29 29 S 15 8689 7800 0 White 2
1 PM Thu 29 29 S 15 8689 7800 0 White 2
2 PM Thu 28 28 S 16 8466 7800 0 White 1
3 PM Thu 27 27 SW 16 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 25 25 SW 16 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 24 24 SW 16 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 24 24 SW 16 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 24 24 SW 15 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 SW 15 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 SW 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 SW 14 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 SW 13 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 SW 13 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 SW 12 8466 7800 0 White 1
2 AM Fri 28 28 SW 12 8466 7800 0 White 1
3 AM Fri 27 27 SW 10 7385 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 SW 9 7385 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com