Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 63 63 N 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 N 6 7792 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 75 NE 6 12918 8624 824 White 6
10 AM Sun 75 80 NE 6 14006 14006 6206 White 11
11 AM Sun 78 84 NE 6 14859 14859 7059 White 15
12 Noon Sun 80 87 NE 6 15496 15496 7696 White 18
1 PM Sun 82 89 N 7 15915 15915 8115 White 20
2 PM Sun 82 88 N 8 15706 15706 7906 White 19
3 PM Sun 83 87 NW 9 15496 15496 7696 White 18
4 PM Sun 83 86 NW 10 15284 15284 7484 White 17
5 PM Sun 82 83 NW 10 14646 14646 6846 White 14
6 PM Sun 81 81 NW 10 14220 14220 6420 White 12
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 13575 13575 5775 White 9
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 8 12918 8624 824 White 6
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 7 8675 7800 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 8047 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 7641 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 NW 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 NW 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 NW 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 NW 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 NW 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 N 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 N 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 N 3 7792 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 74 N 2 12696 8325 525 White 5
10 AM Mon 75 79 NW 3 13791 13791 5991 White 10
11 AM Mon 78 83 SW 6 14646 14646 6846 White 14
12 Noon Mon 80 85 SW 7 15072 15072 7272 White 16
1 PM Mon 81 86 SW 7 15284 15284 7484 White 17
2 PM Mon 81 85 SW 6 15072 15072 7272 White 16
3 PM Mon 81 84 S 6 14859 14859 7059 White 15
4 PM Mon 80 82 SW 7 14433 14433 6633 White 13
5 PM Mon 80 81 SW 8 14220 14220 6420 White 12
6 PM Mon 78 78 SW 8 13575 13575 5775 White 9
7 PM Mon 75 75 SW 7 12918 8624 824 White 6
8 PM Mon 72 72 SW 6 8675 7800 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 69 69 SW 5 7792 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 SW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 SW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 SW 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 S 6 7641 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 72 S 6 8675 7800 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 73 76 S 6 13139 9988 2188 White 7
12 Noon Tue 75 78 S 6 13575 13575 5775 White 9
1 PM Tue 75 78 S 6 13575 13575 5775 White 9
2 PM Tue 75 78 S 7 13575 13575 5775 White 9
3 PM Tue 74 76 S 7 13139 9988 2188 White 7
4 PM Tue 74 75 S 7 12918 8624 824 White 6
5 PM Tue 73 73 SW 7 10082 8043 243 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 7 8675 7800 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 6 8047 7800 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 68 68 S 6 7641 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 S 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 SE 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SE 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SE 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 S 2 7792 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 S 3 10082 8043 243 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 74 77 S 3 13358 13358 5558 White 8
12 Noon Wed 76 80 SW 6 14006 14006 6206 White 11
1 PM Wed 77 81 SW 9 14220 14220 6420 White 12
2 PM Wed 77 80 W 12 14006 14006 6206 White 11
3 PM Wed 76 78 W 13 13575 13575 5775 White 9
4 PM Wed 75 76 W 13 13139 9988 2188 White 7
5 PM Wed 73 73 W 12 10082 8043 243 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 10 8332 7800 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 7792 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 SW 9 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 SW 9 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 S 8 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 S 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 S 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 W 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 W 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 71 W 5 8332 7800 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 75 W 5 12918 8624 824 White 6
12 Noon Thu 74 78 W 6 13575 13575 5775 White 9
1 PM Thu 75 79 W 8 13791 13791 5991 White 10
2 PM Thu 74 77 W 9 13358 13358 5558 White 8
3 PM Thu 74 77 W 9 13358 13358 5558 White 8
4 PM Thu 73 75 W 9 12918 8624 824 White 6
5 PM Thu 72 73 W 9 10082 8043 243 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 8 8332 7800 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 7792 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 NW 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 64 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 W 5 7641 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 72 W 6 8675 7800 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 72 76 W 6 13139 9988 2188 White 7
12 Noon Fri 74 78 W 7 13575 13575 5775 White 9
1 PM Fri 75 79 W 8 13791 13791 5991 White 10
2 PM Fri 76 80 W 9 14006 14006 6206 White 11
3 PM Fri 75 78 W 9 13575 13575 5775 White 9
4 PM Fri 75 77 W 9 13358 13358 5558 White 8
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 9 12918 8624 824 White 6
6 PM Fri 73 73 W 8 10082 8043 243 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 70 70 W 8 8047 7800 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 7 7641 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 6 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 NW 5 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NW 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 NW 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NW 3 7539 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com