Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 7738 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 W 5 8318 7800 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 66 67 W 5 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 69 71 W 5 12853 9807 2007 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 72 76 W 6 14267 13332 5532 White 15
11 AM Sat 74 80 W 5 15128 15128 7328 White 19
12 Noon Sat 76 83 W 6 15765 15765 7965 White 22
1 PM Sat 77 84 W 7 15977 15977 8177 White 23
2 PM Sat 77 83 W 8 15765 15765 7965 White 22
3 PM Sat 78 83 W 9 15765 15765 7965 White 22
4 PM Sat 78 81 W 10 15341 15341 7541 White 20
5 PM Sat 77 78 W 12 14698 13803 6003 White 17
6 PM Sat 76 76 W 12 14267 13332 5532 White 15
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 13 13432 11956 4156 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 13 12218 9710 1910 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 13 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 W 8 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 8 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 8318 7800 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 63 63 NW 7 8318 7800 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 62 62 NW 7 8029 7800 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 7738 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 7738 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 8318 7800 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 66 67 NW 6 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 70 73 NW 6 13432 11956 4156 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 73 78 W 6 14698 13803 6003 White 17
11 AM Sun 75 81 W 7 15341 15341 7541 White 20
12 Noon Sun 77 84 W 7 15977 15977 8177 White 23
1 PM Sun 79 86 W 8 16398 16398 8598 White 25
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 9 16188 16188 8388 White 24
3 PM Sun 80 85 W 10 16188 16188 8388 White 24
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 12 15765 15765 7965 White 22
5 PM Sun 79 80 W 13 15128 15128 7328 White 19
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 14 14698 13803 6003 White 17
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 13826 13071 5271 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 14 13118 9993 2193 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 13 12218 9710 1910 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 10 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 66 66 NW 9 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 65 65 NW 8 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 7 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 64 64 NW 7 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 63 63 NW 7 8318 7800 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 63 63 NW 6 8318 7800 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 65 65 NW 6 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 69 70 NW 6 12218 9710 1910 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 72 75 NW 5 13826 13071 5271 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 75 80 NW 5 15128 15128 7328 White 19
11 AM Mon 78 84 W 5 15977 15977 8177 White 23
12 Noon Mon 80 87 W 6 16609 16609 8809 White 26
1 PM Mon 82 89 W 7 17028 17028 9228 White 28
2 PM Mon 82 88 W 8 16819 16819 9019 White 27
3 PM Mon 83 88 W 8 16819 16819 9019 White 27
4 PM Mon 83 86 W 9 16398 16398 8598 White 25
5 PM Mon 82 83 W 9 15765 15765 7965 White 22
6 PM Mon 80 80 W 10 15128 15128 7328 White 19
7 PM Mon 77 77 W 12 14483 13687 5887 White 16
8 PM Mon 74 74 W 13 13710 12809 5009 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 72 72 W 13 13118 9993 2193 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 12 12218 9710 1910 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 9 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 68 68 NW 9 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 67 67 NW 8 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 66 66 NW 8 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 65 65 NW 8 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 64 64 NW 7 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 64 64 NW 7 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 66 66 NW 7 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 70 71 NW 7 12853 9807 2007 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 74 76 NW 7 14267 13332 5532 White 15
10 AM Tue 77 81 W 7 15341 15341 7541 White 20
11 AM Tue 80 85 W 7 16188 16188 8388 White 24
12 Noon Tue 82 88 SW 7 16819 16819 9019 White 27
1 PM Tue 84 90 SW 7 17234 17234 9434 White 29
2 PM Tue 84 89 SW 8 17028 17028 9228 White 28
3 PM Tue 85 89 SW 8 17028 17028 9228 White 28
4 PM Tue 85 87 SW 9 16609 16609 8809 White 26
5 PM Tue 84 85 SW 9 16188 16188 8388 White 24
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 15553 15553 7753 White 21
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 10 14914 14260 6460 White 18
8 PM Tue 75 75 SW 10 13826 13071 5271 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 73 73 SW 10 13432 11956 4156 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 72 72 SW 9 13118 9993 2193 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 9 12218 9710 1910 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 8 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 69 69 W 8 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 68 68 NW 7 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 67 67 NW 7 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 66 66 NW 7 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 67 67 NW 7 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 70 71 W 6 12853 9807 2007 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 73 75 SW 6 13826 13071 5271 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 76 80 SW 6 15128 15128 7328 White 19
11 AM Wed 78 83 SW 7 15765 15765 7965 White 22
12 Noon Wed 80 86 SW 8 16398 16398 8598 White 25
1 PM Wed 81 87 SW 9 16609 16609 8809 White 26
2 PM Wed 81 86 SW 12 16398 16398 8598 White 25
3 PM Wed 82 85 SW 13 16188 16188 8388 White 24
4 PM Wed 82 84 SW 13 15977 15977 8177 White 23
5 PM Wed 81 82 SW 13 15553 15553 7753 White 21
6 PM Wed 79 79 SW 13 14914 14260 6460 White 18
7 PM Wed 76 76 SW 13 14267 13332 5532 White 15
8 PM Wed 73 73 SW 13 13432 11956 4156 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 71 71 SW 13 12853 9807 2007 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 12 12218 9710 1910 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 9 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 8 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 7 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 66 66 W 7 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 64 64 S 7 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 66 66 SW 7 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 68 69 W 6 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 71 73 W 6 13432 11956 4156 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 73 76 W 6 14267 13332 5532 White 15
11 AM Thu 75 79 W 7 14914 14260 6460 White 18
12 Noon Thu 77 82 W 8 15553 15553 7753 White 21
1 PM Thu 78 83 W 8 15765 15765 7965 White 22
2 PM Thu 79 83 W 9 15765 15765 7965 White 22
3 PM Thu 79 82 W 9 15553 15553 7753 White 21
4 PM Thu 79 81 W 10 15341 15341 7541 White 20
5 PM Thu 78 79 W 12 14914 14260 6460 White 18
6 PM Thu 77 77 W 12 14483 13687 5887 White 16
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 12 13710 12809 5009 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 12 12853 9807 2007 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 10107 9435 1635 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 9814 9022 1222 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 8 9717 8603 803 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 8 9459 8311 511 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 7 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 7 9041 8025 225 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 7 8616 7800 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 63 63 NW 6 8318 7800 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com