Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 35 35 SW 9 8313 7800 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SW 8 8313 7800 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 W 8 8313 7800 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 W 7 8313 7800 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 W 7 8540 7800 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 37 38 W 8 8992 8453 653 White 0
11 AM Thu 38 39 W 8 9218 8841 1041 White 0
12 Noon Thu 39 41 W 8 9668 9602 1802 White 0
1 PM Thu 39 40 SE 7 9442 9224 1424 White 0
2 PM Thu 40 41 E 7 9668 9602 1802 White 0
3 PM Thu 40 40 E 6 9442 9224 1424 White 0
4 PM Thu 39 39 SE 6 9218 8841 1041 White 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 SW 5 9218 8841 1041 White 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 SE 5 8992 8453 653 White 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 NE 5 8992 8453 653 White 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 NE 5 8766 8059 259 White 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NE 5 8540 7800 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 NE 5 8313 7800 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 NE 6 8540 7800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NE 6 8540 7800 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 NE 5 8540 7800 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 NE 5 8540 7800 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 NE 5 8540 7800 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 SE 5 8540 7800 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 SE 5 8313 7800 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NE 5 8313 7800 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 SE 5 8313 7800 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 NE 6 8766 8059 259 White 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 NE 6 9668 9602 1802 White 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 NE 7 9892 9892 2092 White 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 10332 10332 2532 White 5
12 Noon Fri 45 45 SE 7 10550 10550 2750 White 6
1 PM Fri 46 46 E 7 10767 10767 2967 White 7
2 PM Fri 46 46 SE 7 10767 10767 2967 White 7
3 PM Fri 45 45 E 7 10550 10550 2750 White 6
4 PM Fri 43 43 SE 7 10114 10114 2314 White 4
5 PM Fri 41 41 S 7 9668 9602 1802 White 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 SE 7 9218 8841 1041 White 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 E 7 8992 8453 653 White 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 SE 6 8766 8059 259 White 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 E 7 8540 7800 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 NE 7 8540 7800 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 E 7 8766 8059 259 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NE 7 8766 8059 259 White 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 NE 7 8766 8059 259 White 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 NE 6 8766 8059 259 White 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 8540 7800 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 8313 7800 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 8313 7800 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 8313 7800 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 8313 7800 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 8766 8059 259 White 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 E 7 8992 8453 653 White 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 E 7 9668 9602 1802 White 0
11 AM Sat 43 44 SE 7 10332 10332 2532 White 5
12 Noon Sat 45 46 E 7 10767 10767 2967 White 7
1 PM Sat 46 47 SE 7 10984 10984 3184 White 8
2 PM Sat 46 46 SE 8 10767 10767 2967 White 7
3 PM Sat 44 44 SE 7 10332 10332 2532 White 5
4 PM Sat 41 41 S 6 9668 9602 1802 White 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 S 6 9218 8841 1041 White 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 S 6 8992 8453 653 White 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 S 6 8992 8453 653 White 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 S 6 9442 9224 1424 White 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 S 7 9668 9602 1802 White 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 S 7 9668 9602 1802 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 S 7 9892 9892 2092 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 7 9892 9892 2092 White 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 10114 10114 2314 White 4
2 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 10114 10114 2314 White 4
3 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 9892 9892 2092 White 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 9668 9602 1802 White 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 S 7 9442 9224 1424 White 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 8992 8453 653 White 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 S 7 9218 8841 1041 White 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 S 7 9442 9224 1424 White 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 S 8 9442 9224 1424 White 0
10 AM Sun 40 40 S 8 9442 9224 1424 White 0
11 AM Sun 40 40 S 9 9442 9224 1424 White 0
12 Noon Sun 41 41 S 10 9668 9602 1802 White 0
1 PM Sun 41 41 S 10 9668 9602 1802 White 0
2 PM Sun 41 41 SW 12 9668 9602 1802 White 0
3 PM Sun 39 39 SW 12 9218 8841 1041 White 0
4 PM Sun 37 37 SW 13 8766 8059 259 White 0
5 PM Sun 37 37 SW 13 8766 8059 259 White 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 SW 13 8540 7800 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 W 12 8313 7800 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 12 8313 7800 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 10 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 10 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 W 9 8313 7800 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 W 8 8313 7800 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 W 8 8313 7800 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 NW 7 8313 7800 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 NW 7 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 NW 6 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 NW 6 7661 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 NW 6 7661 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 NW 6 7661 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 N 7 7661 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 N 7 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 35 35 N 8 8313 7800 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 37 38 N 8 8992 8453 653 White 0
12 Noon Mon 38 39 N 8 9218 8841 1041 White 0
1 PM Mon 40 41 N 8 9668 9602 1802 White 0
2 PM Mon 40 41 N 9 9668 9602 1802 White 0
3 PM Mon 39 39 N 9 9218 8841 1041 White 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 N 9 8992 8453 653 White 0
5 PM Mon 36 36 N 9 8540 7800 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 35 35 N 9 8313 7800 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 34 34 N 9 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 N 9 7661 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 N 9 7249 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 N 9 7249 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 N 9 7249 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 N 9 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 N 8 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 8 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 N 8 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 7661 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 36 37 N 8 8766 8059 259 White 0
11 AM Tue 39 41 N 8 9668 9602 1802 White 0
12 Noon Tue 41 43 N 8 10114 10114 2314 White 4
1 PM Tue 42 44 N 8 10332 10332 2532 White 5
2 PM Tue 42 43 N 8 10114 10114 2314 White 4
3 PM Tue 41 42 N 7 9892 9892 2092 White 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 N 7 9218 8841 1041 White 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 N 7 8766 8059 259 White 0
6 PM Tue 35 35 N 7 8313 7800 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 N 7 8066 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 N 8 7249 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 N 8 7249 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 N 8 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 N 8 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 N 8 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 7149 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 N 6 7149 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com