Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 7526 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 57 W 5 7526 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 63 W 5 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 64 68 W 3 11469 10644 2844 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 68 74 W 3 12425 11813 4013 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 71 79 W 3 13564 12786 4986 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 74 83 SW 5 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 77 86 SW 5 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 78 86 SW 6 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 79 85 SW 7 16927 15198 7398 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 79 83 W 8 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 78 80 W 7 14180 12981 5181 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 77 77 W 6 13015 12395 4595 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 7 12622 12001 4201 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 12029 11574 3774 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 11469 10644 2844 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 7 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 7 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NW 7 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 61 61 NW 7 9336 7800 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 60 60 NW 7 9003 7800 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 8005 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 7 7658 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 N 7 7658 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 7 7526 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 60 N 7 9003 7800 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 65 67 N 7 11247 10356 2556 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 68 72 N 7 12029 11574 3774 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 72 78 N 6 13211 12591 4791 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 77 85 N 6 16927 15198 7398 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 80 89 N 5 20116 17267 9467 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 83 92 N 5 21223 19916 12116 White 33
2 PM Wed 84 92 NW 5 21223 19916 12116 White 33
3 PM Wed 85 91 NW 6 21022 19087 11287 White 32
4 PM Wed 85 89 NW 7 20116 17267 9467 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 84 86 NW 8 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 83 83 NW 8 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 80 80 NW 8 14180 12981 5181 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 77 77 NW 7 13015 12395 4595 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 73 73 NW 7 12227 11694 3894 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 70 70 NW 6 11709 11214 3414 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 68 68 NW 6 11469 10644 2844 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 5 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 65 65 N 3 10672 9528 1728 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 63 63 NE 3 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 63 63 NE 5 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 62 62 E 5 9541 7991 191 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 9336 7800 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 9003 7800 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 62 63 E 5 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 67 69 E 3 11589 10930 3130 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 71 75 SE 3 12622 12001 4201 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 74 80 SE 3 14180 12981 5181 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 78 86 S 3 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 81 90 S 3 20588 17748 9948 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 84 93 SW 5 21425 20385 12585 White 34
2 PM Thu 85 93 SW 6 21425 20385 12585 White 34
3 PM Thu 86 92 SW 6 21223 19916 12116 White 33
4 PM Thu 86 90 SW 9 20588 17748 9948 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 7 17923 16265 8465 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 7 16414 14637 6837 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 6 15337 13445 5645 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 13564 12786 4986 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 12622 12001 4201 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 8 12029 11574 3774 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 11709 11214 3414 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 8 11589 10930 3130 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 67 67 W 7 11247 10356 2556 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 63 63 W 7 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 65 66 W 7 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 69 71 W 7 11831 11455 3655 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 72 76 W 7 12819 12198 4398 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 75 81 W 8 14770 13176 5376 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 78 86 SW 9 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 81 90 SW 10 20588 17748 9948 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 83 92 SW 12 21223 19916 12116 White 33
2 PM Fri 84 92 SW 13 21223 19916 12116 White 33
3 PM Fri 85 91 SW 13 21022 19087 11287 White 32
4 PM Fri 85 89 W 15 20116 17267 9467 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 84 86 W 14 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 83 83 W 14 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 81 81 W 13 14770 13176 5376 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 13 13211 12591 4791 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 73 73 W 12 12227 11694 3894 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 71 71 W 9 11831 11455 3655 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 11589 10930 3130 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 8 11247 10356 2556 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 66 66 NW 7 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 64 64 NW 7 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 64 64 NW 7 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 62 62 NW 7 9541 7991 191 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 62 62 NW 7 9541 7991 191 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 61 61 NW 7 9336 7800 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 62 63 W 7 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 66 68 W 6 11469 10644 2844 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 69 73 W 6 12227 11694 3894 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 72 78 SW 7 13211 12591 4791 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 75 83 SW 8 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 77 86 SW 9 17425 15740 7940 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 79 88 SW 10 19629 16773 8973 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 81 89 SW 12 20116 17267 9467 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 81 87 SW 13 17923 16265 8465 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 81 85 SW 13 16927 15198 7398 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 80 82 SW 14 15337 13445 5645 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 79 79 SW 13 13564 12786 4986 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 77 77 SW 10 13015 12395 4595 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 75 75 SW 10 12622 12001 4201 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 9 11831 11455 3655 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 8 11589 10930 3130 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 67 67 SW 9 11247 10356 2556 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 SW 9 10672 9528 1728 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 64 64 SW 9 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 63 63 SW 8 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 62 62 SW 8 9541 7991 191 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 61 61 SW 8 9336 7800 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 61 61 SW 8 9336 7800 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 60 60 SW 8 9003 7800 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 61 62 SW 8 9541 7991 191 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 65 67 SW 8 11247 10356 2556 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 67 71 SW 9 11831 11455 3655 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 69 75 SW 9 12622 12001 4201 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 72 80 SW 9 14180 12981 5181 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 74 83 SW 9 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 76 85 SW 9 16927 15198 7398 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 77 85 SW 9 16927 15198 7398 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 77 83 SW 9 15884 14053 6253 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 77 81 SW 9 14770 13176 5376 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 76 78 W 9 13211 12591 4791 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 9 12622 12001 4201 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 9 12425 11813 4013 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 11831 11455 3655 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 11469 10644 2844 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 7 10960 9731 1931 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 10381 9325 1525 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 6 9745 8962 1162 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 62 62 NW 6 9541 7991 191 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 61 61 NW 6 9336 7800 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 60 60 NW 6 9003 7800 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 8005 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 5 8005 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com