Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 48 48 SW 14 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SW 14 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 SW 15 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SW 15 9469 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 51 51 SW 15 10033 9153 1353 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 53 53 SW 15 10494 9733 1933 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 55 56 SW 16 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 56 57 SW 17 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 56 57 W 18 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 56 57 W 20 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 55 56 W 20 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 54 54 W 20 10745 10011 2211 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 18 10276 9452 1652 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 16 10033 9153 1353 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 15 9752 7800 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 14 9469 7800 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 13 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NW 12 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 NW 10 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NW 10 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 9 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 9 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 9 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 46 NE 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 50 NE 5 9752 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 50 53 NE 5 10494 9733 1933 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 52 55 NE 5 11893 10257 2457 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 54 56 NE 5 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 53 54 NE 3 10745 10011 2211 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 10276 9452 1652 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 9752 7800 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 47 47 NE 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NE 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 E 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 E 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 E 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 SE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 SE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 SE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 SE 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 SE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 SE 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 S 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 S 5 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 S 5 10494 9733 1933 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 54 57 S 3 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 56 59 S 3 14044 12227 4427 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 56 58 SW 3 13106 11725 3925 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 56 57 SW 3 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 54 54 W 3 10745 10011 2211 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 52 52 W 5 10276 9452 1652 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 3 9469 7800 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 W 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 W 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 W 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 SW 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 5 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 SW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 SW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 W 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 W 7 10033 9153 1353 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 53 54 W 8 10745 10011 2211 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 55 56 W 8 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 57 58 W 8 13106 11725 3925 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 57 58 W 9 13106 11725 3925 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 57 57 W 8 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 10745 10011 2211 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 10033 9153 1353 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 9469 7800 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 W 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 W 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 W 6 10494 9733 1933 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 55 57 W 6 12632 10716 2916 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 58 60 W 5 14585 12575 4775 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 60 62 NW 6 14946 13857 6057 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 60 62 NW 6 14946 13857 6057 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 59 60 N 6 14585 12575 4775 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 58 58 N 6 13106 11725 3925 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 56 56 N 6 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 6 10494 9733 1933 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 9752 7800 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 6 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 N 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NE 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 9752 7800 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 55 56 N 6 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 59 61 N 6 14771 12929 5129 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 61 64 N 6 15535 14729 6929 White 16
1 PM Wed 63 66 N 6 15956 15144 7344 White 18
2 PM Wed 64 66 N 6 15956 15144 7344 White 18
3 PM Wed 63 64 N 6 15535 14729 6929 White 16
4 PM Wed 62 62 N 6 14946 13857 6057 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 59 59 N 6 14044 12227 4427 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 56 56 N 6 12281 10474 2674 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 10494 9733 1933 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 51 51 N 7 10033 9153 1353 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 49 49 N 7 9469 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 9184 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 8 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 7 7392 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com