Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Thu 47 47 NW 6 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 5 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 57 NW 5 8091 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 59 62 NW 3 12062 8752 952 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 61 66 NW 3 15999 13363 5563 White 10
11 AM Thu 63 70 W 3 16837 16703 8903 White 14
12 Noon Thu 65 73 SW 3 17458 17458 9658 White 17
1 PM Thu 67 74 SW 3 17663 17663 9863 White 18
2 PM Thu 69 74 SW 5 17663 17663 9863 White 18
3 PM Thu 70 73 SW 6 17458 17458 9658 White 17
4 PM Thu 70 72 SW 7 17252 17119 9319 White 16
5 PM Thu 69 69 SW 8 16628 16199 8399 White 13
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 9 16209 14078 6278 White 11
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 10 15788 11921 4121 White 9
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 10 13440 10023 2223 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 9 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 8429 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 8091 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 5 7668 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 W 5 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 5 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 3 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NW 3 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NW 2 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 W 2 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 57 S 2 8091 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 59 62 SE 3 12062 8752 952 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 61 66 SE 3 15999 13363 5563 White 10
11 AM Fri 64 71 S 6 17045 16978 9178 White 15
12 Noon Fri 66 73 S 8 17458 17458 9658 White 17
1 PM Fri 67 74 S 10 17663 17663 9863 White 18
2 PM Fri 68 74 SW 14 17663 17663 9863 White 18
3 PM Fri 69 73 SW 17 17458 17458 9658 White 17
4 PM Fri 69 72 SW 18 17252 17119 9319 White 16
5 PM Fri 68 69 SW 17 16628 16199 8399 White 13
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 16 16209 14078 6278 White 11
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 15 15788 11921 4121 White 9
8 PM Fri 63 63 SW 14 13440 10023 2223 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 12 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 58 58 SW 10 8429 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 W 9 7668 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 W 7 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 6 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 6 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SW 5 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 SW 3 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SW 3 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 S 3 7668 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 60 S 5 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 59 64 S 6 14514 10867 3067 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 60 66 S 7 15999 13363 5563 White 10
12 Noon Sat 62 69 S 8 16628 16199 8399 White 13
1 PM Sat 64 71 S 8 17045 16978 9178 White 15
2 PM Sat 65 71 S 9 17045 16978 9178 White 15
3 PM Sat 67 71 S 9 17045 16978 9178 White 15
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 10 16628 16199 8399 White 13
5 PM Sat 66 67 SW 12 16209 14078 6278 White 11
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 12 15788 11921 4121 White 9
7 PM Sat 62 62 SW 12 12062 8752 952 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 12 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 8091 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 55 55 SW 10 7668 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 SW 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SW 9 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 SW 9 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SW 9 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 SW 9 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 S 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 SW 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 56 SW 12 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 60 SW 14 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 58 64 S 15 14514 10867 3067 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 61 68 S 16 16418 15680 7880 White 12
1 PM Sun 63 69 SW 17 16628 16199 8399 White 13
2 PM Sun 64 69 SW 16 16628 16199 8399 White 13
3 PM Sun 65 69 SW 16 16628 16199 8399 White 13
4 PM Sun 65 67 SW 16 16209 14078 6278 White 11
5 PM Sun 65 66 SW 16 15999 13363 5563 White 10
6 PM Sun 64 64 SW 16 14514 10867 3067 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 62 62 SW 16 12062 8752 952 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 61 61 SW 16 10989 8420 620 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 16 8764 7800 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 56 56 SW 15 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 SW 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 12 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 12 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 S 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 S 12 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 50 S 12 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 53 S 13 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 S 14 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 59 S 16 8764 7800 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 57 60 S 17 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 58 61 S 18 10989 8420 620 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 59 62 S 20 12062 8752 952 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 59 61 S 21 10989 8420 620 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 59 60 S 22 10148 8086 286 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 58 58 S 22 8429 7800 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 56 56 S 22 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 SW 22 7668 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 21 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 20 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 SW 18 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SW 16 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 44 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 48 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 51 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 54 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 56 S 15 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 58 SW 15 8429 7800 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 53 58 SW 15 8429 7800 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 54 58 SW 16 8429 7800 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 55 57 SW 16 8091 7800 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 55 56 SW 17 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 SW 17 7668 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 17 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 SW 16 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 SW 16 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SW 15 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 SW 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SW 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SW 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SW 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 14 7562 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com