Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 57 E 3 7714 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 61 E 3 10032 7915 115 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 61 66 E 3 15201 13274 5474 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 66 73 E 3 19082 18398 10598 White 13
12 Noon Thu 69 76 E 5 19688 19688 11888 White 16
1 PM Thu 72 79 E 5 20287 20287 12487 White 19
2 PM Thu 75 80 SE 6 20486 20486 12686 White 20
3 PM Thu 76 80 SE 6 20486 20486 12686 White 20
4 PM Thu 76 78 SE 6 20087 20087 12287 White 18
5 PM Thu 75 76 SE 6 19688 19688 11888 White 16
6 PM Thu 74 74 S 5 19284 18632 10832 White 14
7 PM Thu 71 71 S 3 18630 17927 10127 White 11
8 PM Thu 67 67 SW 2 17603 14126 6326 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 2 14232 9927 2127 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 2 13486 8334 534 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 61 61 NW 2 10032 7915 115 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NW 3 7917 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 7714 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NW 1 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 1 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SW 2 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 S 3 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 S 6 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 57 S 8 7714 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 60 S 10 8381 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 S 12 13486 8334 534 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 63 67 S 13 17603 14126 6326 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 66 70 S 13 18426 17195 9395 White 10
1 PM Fri 68 72 S 13 18846 18163 10363 White 12
2 PM Fri 69 73 S 13 19082 18398 10598 White 13
3 PM Fri 70 73 S 14 19082 18398 10598 White 13
4 PM Fri 70 72 S 14 18846 18163 10363 White 12
5 PM Fri 70 70 S 14 18426 17195 9395 White 10
6 PM Fri 68 68 S 14 18011 14611 6811 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 66 66 S 13 15201 13274 5474 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 63 63 S 12 13486 8334 534 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 61 61 S 9 10032 7915 115 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 59 59 S 7 8121 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 S 5 7714 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 S 3 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 S 6 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 S 9 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 10 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 S 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 S 15 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 59 S 16 8121 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 63 S 16 13486 8334 534 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 61 67 S 17 17603 14126 6326 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 64 71 S 18 18630 17927 10127 White 11
1 PM Sat 66 73 S 20 19082 18398 10598 White 13
2 PM Sat 67 73 S 21 19082 18398 10598 White 13
3 PM Sat 68 72 S 22 18846 18163 10363 White 12
4 PM Sat 68 70 S 23 18426 17195 9395 White 10
5 PM Sat 68 69 SW 23 18220 15084 7284 White 9
6 PM Sat 66 66 SW 23 15201 13274 5474 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 64 64 SW 23 14232 9927 2127 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 22 8381 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 SW 22 7917 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 SW 21 7714 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 18 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 SW 18 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 18 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 18 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 S 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 S 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 52 S 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 55 S 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 59 S 20 8121 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 64 S 20 14232 9927 2127 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 59 67 S 20 17603 14126 6326 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 61 68 S 21 18011 14611 6811 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 62 68 SW 21 18011 14611 6811 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 63 68 SW 21 18011 14611 6811 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 63 66 SW 21 15201 13274 5474 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 63 64 SW 21 14232 9927 2127 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 61 61 SW 21 10032 7915 115 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 59 59 SW 20 8121 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 17 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 SW 16 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 SW 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SW 10 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 12 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 12 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 15 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 SW 15 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 48 SW 15 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 53 S 16 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 56 S 16 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 59 S 16 8121 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 61 S 16 10032 7915 115 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 57 62 S 17 12034 8117 317 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 57 61 SW 18 10032 7915 115 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 57 60 SW 20 8381 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 59 SW 21 8121 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 56 SW 21 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 SW 21 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 20 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 17 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 16 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 SW 12 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SW 10 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SW 10 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SW 10 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 SW 12 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 S 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 S 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 46 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 49 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 51 S 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 54 S 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 55 S 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 56 S 13 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 55 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 54 S 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 53 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 SW 14 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 SW 13 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 SW 12 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 SW 10 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 SW 8 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SW 7 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 SW 6 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SW 6 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 SW 5 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 S 5 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 S 6 7490 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 7490 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com