Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 9 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SW 8 10535 9823 2023 White 3
8 AM Fri 45 45 SW 8 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 W 7 10535 9823 2023 White 3
10 AM Fri 50 53 W 7 11412 11412 3612 White 7
11 AM Fri 51 55 W 7 11846 11846 4046 White 9
12 Noon Fri 53 57 W 8 12280 12280 4480 White 11
1 PM Fri 55 59 W 8 12712 12712 4912 White 13
2 PM Fri 56 59 W 8 12712 12712 4912 White 13
3 PM Fri 57 59 W 8 12712 12712 4912 White 13
4 PM Fri 58 59 W 8 12712 12712 4912 White 13
5 PM Fri 57 57 W 8 12280 12280 4480 White 11
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 12063 12063 4263 White 10
7 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 11412 11412 3612 White 7
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 7 10757 10426 2626 White 4
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 6 10088 8086 286 White 1
10 PM Fri 46 46 W 6 9854 7800 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 3 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 W 3 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 W 3 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 3 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SW 5 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 SW 5 10535 9823 2023 White 3
10 AM Sat 50 53 SW 5 11412 11412 3612 White 7
11 AM Sat 52 56 SW 6 12063 12063 4263 White 10
12 Noon Sat 55 59 SW 6 12712 12712 4912 White 13
1 PM Sat 57 61 SW 7 13142 13142 5342 White 15
2 PM Sat 58 61 SW 8 13142 13142 5342 White 15
3 PM Sat 59 61 SW 9 13142 13142 5342 White 15
4 PM Sat 59 60 SW 9 12927 12927 5127 White 14
5 PM Sat 58 58 SW 9 12496 12496 4696 White 12
6 PM Sat 56 56 SW 9 12063 12063 4263 White 10
7 PM Sat 53 53 SW 9 11412 11412 3612 White 7
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 10757 10426 2626 White 4
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 7 10312 8960 1160 White 2
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 7 9854 7800 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 7 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 7 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 W 7 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 7 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 7 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 7 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 W 7 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 W 8 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 W 8 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 W 9 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 46 NW 10 9854 7800 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 47 49 NW 12 10535 9823 2023 White 3
11 AM Sun 49 53 NW 13 11412 11412 3612 White 7
12 Noon Sun 52 56 NW 13 12063 12063 4263 White 10
1 PM Sun 54 58 NW 14 12496 12496 4696 White 12
2 PM Sun 56 59 NW 15 12712 12712 4912 White 13
3 PM Sun 57 59 NW 15 12712 12712 4912 White 13
4 PM Sun 57 58 NW 15 12496 12496 4696 White 12
5 PM Sun 55 55 NW 15 11846 11846 4046 White 9
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 15 11412 11412 3612 White 7
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 15 10757 10426 2626 White 4
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 14 10088 8086 286 White 1
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 14 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 N 13 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 N 13 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 N 12 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 N 12 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 N 12 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 N 9 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 N 9 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 49 N 9 10535 9823 2023 White 3
11 AM Mon 49 53 N 8 11412 11412 3612 White 7
12 Noon Mon 51 55 N 8 11846 11846 4046 White 9
1 PM Mon 54 58 N 8 12496 12496 4696 White 12
2 PM Mon 56 59 N 8 12712 12712 4912 White 13
3 PM Mon 58 60 N 9 12927 12927 5127 White 14
4 PM Mon 59 60 N 9 12927 12927 5127 White 14
5 PM Mon 59 59 N 10 12712 12712 4912 White 13
6 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 12280 12280 4480 White 11
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 10 11629 11629 3829 White 8
8 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 10975 10684 2884 White 5
9 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 10312 8960 1160 White 2
10 PM Mon 46 46 N 10 9854 7800 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 N 10 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 10 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 N 10 7425 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 N 10 10312 8960 1160 White 2
10 AM Tue 50 53 N 9 11412 11412 3612 White 7
11 AM Tue 53 57 N 9 12280 12280 4480 White 11
12 Noon Tue 56 60 N 8 12927 12927 5127 White 14
1 PM Tue 59 63 NE 8 13572 13572 5772 White 17
2 PM Tue 61 65 NE 8 13993 13993 6193 White 19
3 PM Tue 63 65 NE 8 13993 13993 6193 White 19
4 PM Tue 63 64 NE 7 13783 13783 5983 White 18
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 7 13357 13357 5557 White 16
6 PM Tue 61 61 NE 7 13142 13142 5342 White 15
7 PM Tue 58 58 NE 7 12496 12496 4696 White 12
8 PM Tue 55 55 NE 7 11846 11846 4046 White 9
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 11193 11193 3393 White 6
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 7 10757 10426 2626 White 4
11 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 10535 9823 2023 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 7 10312 8960 1160 White 2
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 7 10088 8086 286 White 1
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 10088 8086 286 White 1
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 8 9854 7800 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 10088 8086 286 White 1
9 AM Wed 50 51 N 8 10975 10684 2884 White 5
10 AM Wed 53 56 NE 8 12063 12063 4263 White 10
11 AM Wed 56 60 NE 8 12927 12927 5127 White 14
12 Noon Wed 59 63 NE 9 13572 13572 5772 White 17
1 PM Wed 61 65 N 10 13993 13993 6193 White 19
2 PM Wed 63 66 NW 10 14202 14202 6402 White 20
3 PM Wed 64 66 W 10 14202 14202 6402 White 20
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 12 13993 13993 6193 White 19
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 13572 13572 5772 White 17
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 10 13142 13142 5342 White 15
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 10 12496 12496 4696 White 12
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 9 11846 11846 4046 White 9
9 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 11193 11193 3393 White 6
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 8 10757 10426 2626 White 4
11 PM Wed 49 49 W 7 10535 9823 2023 White 3
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 W 7 10535 9823 2023 White 3
1 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 10312 8960 1160 White 2
2 AM Thu 46 46 N 8 9854 7800 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 8 8998 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 8102 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 8 7425 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com