Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 32 32 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 30 30 NW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 33 33 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 36 36 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 NW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 NW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 41 41 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 46 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 50 52 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 57 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 56 61 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 58 62 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 64 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 61 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 59 59 W 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 39 39 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 40 40 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 34 34 SSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 34 34 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 33 33 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 35 35 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 37 37 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 S 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 42 S 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 43 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 45 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 50 SSW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 56 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 59 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 57 62 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 58 62 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 58 61 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 60 W 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 39 39 WNW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 45 45 WNW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 39 39 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 32 32 NW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 29 29 NW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 31 31 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 33 33 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 35 35 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 35 35 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 36 36 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 35 36 NNW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 39 41 NE 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 42 46 NE 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 43 47 NE 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 46 50 ENE 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 47 51 NE 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 43 46 NE 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 47 48 NE 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 47 47 NE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 44 44 NNE 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 28 28 NNE 10 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 35 35 NNE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 31 31 NNE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com