Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 28 28 NE 8 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 NE 8 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 NE 8 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 NE 8 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 NE 8 7619 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 NE 8 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 40 42 NE 9 9555 8495 695 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 42 44 NE 9 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 45 47 NE 9 10087 9922 2122 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 46 48 NE 9 10149 9975 2175 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 45 46 NE 9 10033 9868 2068 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 45 45 NE 8 9979 9508 1708 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 38 38 NE 8 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 35 35 NE 8 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 NE 8 7583 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 NE 7 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 NE 7 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 28 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 E 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 E 6 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 E 6 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 E 6 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 E 6 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 E 6 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 39 40 E 7 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 42 44 E 7 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 45 47 E 7 10087 9922 2122 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 47 49 E 8 10300 10029 2229 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 48 50 E 8 10769 10083 2283 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 47 48 E 8 10149 9975 2175 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 45 45 E 7 9979 9508 1708 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 43 43 E 6 9872 8680 880 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 40 40 E 6 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 38 38 NE 6 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 36 36 N 6 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 34 34 N 6 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 N 7 7583 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 N 7 7546 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 N 7 7546 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 N 7 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 N 7 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 N 7 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 N 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 N 7 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 N 6 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 N 6 7474 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 N 6 7510 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 N 6 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 N 5 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 44 46 N 5 10033 9868 2068 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 47 49 NE 6 10300 10029 2229 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 49 51 E 8 11290 10139 2339 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 49 50 E 8 10769 10083 2283 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 48 49 E 8 10300 10029 2229 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 46 46 E 8 10033 9868 2068 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 7 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 42 42 E 7 9555 8495 695 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 40 40 NE 7 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 38 38 NE 7 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 37 37 NE 7 8129 7800 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 36 36 NE 7 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 35 35 NE 7 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 NE 8 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 N 8 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 N 9 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 N 9 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 NE 10 7619 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 NE 12 7619 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NE 12 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 NE 12 8129 7800 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 40 41 NE 12 8872 8311 511 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 44 45 E 12 9979 9508 1708 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 47 49 E 10 10300 10029 2229 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 49 51 E 10 11290 10139 2339 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 50 51 E 10 11290 10139 2339 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 49 49 E 10 10300 10029 2229 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 47 47 E 10 10087 9922 2122 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 44 44 E 10 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 42 42 E 9 9555 8495 695 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 40 40 NE 9 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 39 39 NE 9 8501 7940 140 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 38 38 NE 10 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 37 37 NE 12 8129 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 36 36 E 14 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NE 13 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 12 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 35 35 NE 12 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 10 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 10 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NE 12 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 NE 10 7656 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 NE 10 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 NE 10 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 39 39 NE 10 8501 7940 140 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 43 44 NE 10 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 46 47 E 10 10087 9922 2122 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 49 51 E 9 11290 10139 2339 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 51 53 E 8 12288 10715 2915 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 52 53 E 8 12288 10715 2915 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 51 51 E 8 11290 10139 2339 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 49 49 E 7 10300 10029 2229 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 46 46 E 8 10033 9868 2068 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 44 44 NE 7 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 42 42 NE 7 9555 8495 695 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 41 41 NE 8 8872 8311 511 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 40 40 NE 8 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 39 39 NE 8 8501 7940 140 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 39 39 NE 8 8501 7940 140 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 8 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 8129 7800 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 7 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 7755 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 7942 7800 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 8129 7800 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 43 44 NE 7 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 47 48 E 5 10149 9975 2175 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 49 51 E 6 11290 10139 2339 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 51 52 SE 7 11795 10271 2471 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 51 52 S 7 11795 10271 2471 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 50 50 S 6 10769 10083 2283 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 48 48 S 6 10149 9975 2175 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 46 46 S 3 10033 9868 2068 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 5 9926 8864 1064 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 43 43 S 5 9872 8680 880 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 41 41 S 6 8872 8311 511 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 40 40 SE 6 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 40 40 E 6 8687 8125 325 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 39 39 E 6 8501 7940 140 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NE 7 8501 7940 140 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 38 38 E 8 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 38 38 E 9 8315 7800 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 8129 7800 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 37 37 N 9 8129 7800 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com