Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 28 28 SE 2 7546 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 SE 2 7546 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 SE 2 7546 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 SE 2 7546 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SE 3 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 SE 3 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 42 SE 5 8161 7995 195 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 44 45 SE 6 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 45 46 S 6 8382 8215 415 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 47 S 7 8532 8271 471 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 46 46 S 7 8382 8215 415 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 S 7 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 S 7 8217 8050 250 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 S 7 8106 7940 140 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 S 6 7996 7830 30 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 S 6 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 S 6 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 S 5 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 S 5 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 S 5 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 S 5 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 S 5 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 S 5 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 3 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 SW 2 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 SW 2 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 SW 2 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 SW 3 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 S 3 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 8106 7940 140 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 46 SE 3 8382 8215 415 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 49 SE 2 9001 8381 581 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 49 50 S 2 9950 8525 725 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 50 51 SW 1 10809 8758 958 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 50 51 S 2 10809 8758 958 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 49 49 S 2 9001 8381 581 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 47 47 SE 3 8532 8271 471 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 45 45 SE 3 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 E 3 8161 7995 195 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 E 3 7996 7830 30 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 E 5 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 E 5 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 E 6 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 E 6 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 E 6 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 E 6 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 E 6 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 E 6 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 E 6 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 E 6 7556 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 E 6 7556 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 E 6 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 E 6 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 42 E 6 8161 7995 195 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 47 E 6 8532 8271 471 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 49 51 E 6 10809 8758 958 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 50 52 SE 6 11419 8990 1190 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 51 52 SE 6 11419 8990 1190 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 51 52 SE 6 11419 8990 1190 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 49 49 SE 6 9001 8381 581 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 47 47 SE 6 8532 8271 471 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 45 45 SE 6 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 SE 6 8161 7995 195 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 SE 6 7996 7830 30 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 SE 6 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 SE 6 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 SE 6 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SE 6 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SE 5 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 SE 5 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 SE 5 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 SE 5 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SE 5 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 SE 3 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 S 3 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 S 3 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 35 S 3 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 43 S 6 8217 8050 250 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 45 S 6 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 46 S 7 8382 8215 415 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 S 7 8272 8105 305 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 SW 7 8217 8050 250 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 SW 7 8161 7995 195 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 SW 7 8106 7940 140 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 SW 6 8051 7885 85 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 W 6 7996 7830 30 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 W 6 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 6 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 6 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NW 7 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 NW 7 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 NW 8 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 N 9 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 N 9 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 N 8 7556 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 N 8 7556 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 N 8 7610 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 37 N 7 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 41 N 7 8106 7940 140 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 44 N 7 8272 8105 305 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 43 44 N 7 8272 8105 305 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 44 45 N 7 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 45 N 7 8327 8160 360 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 N 7 8272 8105 305 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 43 43 N 7 8217 8050 250 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 N 7 8106 7940 140 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 N 7 8051 7885 85 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 N 7 7996 7830 30 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 8 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 8 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 N 8 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 N 8 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 N 9 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 9 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 N 9 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 N 9 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 N 9 7665 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 N 9 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 NE 8 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 42 NE 8 8161 7995 195 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 47 NE 8 8532 8271 471 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 47 49 NE 8 9001 8381 581 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 49 51 NE 8 10809 8758 958 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 50 52 NE 8 11419 8990 1190 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 50 51 NE 8 10809 8758 958 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 50 50 N 8 9950 8525 725 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 8767 8326 526 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 46 46 N 8 8382 8215 415 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 NE 8 8217 8050 250 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 NE 8 8051 7885 85 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NE 8 7996 7830 30 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NE 8 7941 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NE 8 7886 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NE 8 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NE 8 7830 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 NE 8 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 NE 7 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 NE 7 7775 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com