Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 56 56 SW 3 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 56 SW 3 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 65 S 5 11946 8015 215 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 65 69 S 5 15851 13155 5355 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 67 73 S 6 17050 17050 9250 White 11
11 AM Sat 69 77 S 7 17872 17872 10072 White 15
12 Noon Sat 72 80 SW 8 18486 18486 10686 White 18
1 PM Sat 74 81 SW 9 18689 18689 10889 White 19
2 PM Sat 74 80 SW 10 18486 18486 10686 White 18
3 PM Sat 75 79 SW 10 18282 18282 10482 White 17
4 PM Sat 75 77 SW 12 17872 17872 10072 White 15
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 12 17462 17462 9662 White 13
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 17050 17050 9250 White 11
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 12 16840 15662 7862 White 10
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 16421 14312 6512 White 8
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 14550 9886 2086 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 11946 8015 215 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 9 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 9 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 9 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 8 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 W 8 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NW 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NW 6 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 60 NW 5 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 67 SW 5 14550 9886 2086 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 68 72 S 6 16840 15662 7862 White 10
10 AM Sun 69 75 S 6 17462 17462 9662 White 13
11 AM Sun 72 79 SW 7 18282 18282 10482 White 17
12 Noon Sun 74 82 S 8 18916 18916 11116 White 20
1 PM Sun 75 81 SW 9 18689 18689 10889 White 19
2 PM Sun 75 79 SW 10 18282 18282 10482 White 17
3 PM Sun 75 77 SW 12 17872 17872 10072 White 15
4 PM Sun 75 76 SW 13 17667 17667 9867 White 14
5 PM Sun 75 76 SW 13 17667 17667 9867 White 14
6 PM Sun 74 74 SW 12 17256 17256 9456 White 12
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 10 16840 15662 7862 White 10
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 10 15851 13155 5355 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 9 13388 8377 577 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 64 64 SW 9 9999 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 8 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 7 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NW 6 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 N 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 8 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NE 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 E 5 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 SE 6 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 66 SE 8 13388 8377 577 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 67 70 SE 9 16421 14312 6512 White 8
11 AM Mon 68 72 S 12 16840 15662 7862 White 10
12 Noon Mon 69 74 S 13 17256 17256 9456 White 12
1 PM Mon 71 77 S 14 17872 17872 10072 White 15
2 PM Mon 72 77 S 14 17872 17872 10072 White 15
3 PM Mon 73 77 S 14 17872 17872 10072 White 15
4 PM Mon 73 76 S 14 17667 17667 9867 White 14
5 PM Mon 73 74 S 14 17256 17256 9456 White 12
6 PM Mon 72 72 S 13 16840 15662 7862 White 10
7 PM Mon 69 69 S 12 15851 13155 5355 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 66 66 S 10 13388 8377 577 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 63 63 S 10 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 61 61 S 10 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 S 9 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 S 8 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 S 5 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NE 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 N 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 63 SE 5 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 65 69 SE 6 15851 13155 5355 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 67 72 S 7 16840 15662 7862 White 10
11 AM Tue 69 76 S 8 17667 17667 9867 White 14
12 Noon Tue 71 79 S 9 18282 18282 10482 White 17
1 PM Tue 72 80 S 9 18486 18486 10686 White 18
2 PM Tue 73 80 SW 10 18486 18486 10686 White 18
3 PM Tue 74 79 SW 10 18282 18282 10482 White 17
4 PM Tue 74 77 SW 10 17872 17872 10072 White 15
5 PM Tue 73 75 SW 12 17462 17462 9662 White 13
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 12 16840 15662 7862 White 10
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 10 16421 14312 6512 White 8
8 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 14550 9886 2086 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 65 65 SW 9 11946 8015 215 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 W 8 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 W 8 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NW 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 58 NW 3 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 63 W 3 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 65 69 SW 6 15851 13155 5355 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 68 74 SW 7 17256 17256 9456 White 12
11 AM Wed 70 78 SW 7 18077 18077 10277 White 16
12 Noon Wed 72 81 SW 8 18689 18689 10889 White 19
1 PM Wed 73 82 SW 8 18916 18916 11116 White 20
2 PM Wed 75 83 SW 9 19138 19138 11338 White 21
3 PM Wed 76 82 SW 9 18916 18916 11116 White 20
4 PM Wed 76 80 W 10 18486 18486 10686 White 18
5 PM Wed 76 78 W 12 18077 18077 10277 White 16
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 13 17462 17462 9662 White 13
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 14 17050 17050 9250 White 11
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 14 16421 14312 6512 White 8
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 13 15403 11721 3921 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 13 13388 8377 577 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 10 9999 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 SW 9 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 62 62 SW 9 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 9 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 NW 3 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 60 NW 5 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 65 S 2 11946 8015 215 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 66 70 S 7 16421 14312 6512 White 8
10 AM Thu 70 76 S 9 17667 17667 9867 White 14
11 AM Thu 72 80 S 12 18486 18486 10686 White 18
12 Noon Thu 74 83 S 12 19138 19138 11338 White 21
1 PM Thu 75 84 SW 13 19338 19338 11538 White 22
2 PM Thu 76 84 SW 14 19338 19338 11538 White 22
3 PM Thu 77 83 SW 14 19138 19138 11338 White 21
4 PM Thu 77 81 SW 15 18689 18689 10889 White 19
5 PM Thu 76 78 SW 15 18077 18077 10277 White 16
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 15 17462 17462 9662 White 13
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 15 17050 17050 9250 White 11
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 15 16421 14312 6512 White 8
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 14 15403 11721 3921 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 66 66 SW 14 13388 8377 577 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 13 9999 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 12 8386 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 62 62 SW 10 8020 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 7790 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 S 8 7632 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 SE 7 7533 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com