Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 37 37 NE 13 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 36 36 NE 13 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 E 13 7940 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 E 13 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 36 36 E 13 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 35 35 E 13 7940 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 36 36 E 13 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 37 37 E 13 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 37 37 E 12 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 37 37 E 12 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 37 37 E 10 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 37 37 E 10 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 37 37 E 10 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 37 37 E 9 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 37 37 E 9 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 37 37 E 8 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 37 37 E 8 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 37 37 E 9 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 8610 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 8711 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 38 39 E 12 9328 8607 807 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 39 41 E 12 9623 8825 1025 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 40 43 E 12 10386 9466 1666 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 41 45 E 12 11332 9761 1961 White 9
1 PM Wed 41 45 E 12 11332 9761 1961 White 9
2 PM Wed 43 46 E 9 11552 10320 2520 White 10
3 PM Wed 44 46 E 9 11552 10320 2520 White 10
4 PM Wed 46 47 E 9 11772 11022 3222 White 11
5 PM Wed 47 47 E 8 11772 11022 3222 White 11
6 PM Wed 47 47 E 9 11772 11022 3222 White 11
7 PM Wed 47 47 E 8 11772 11022 3222 White 11
8 PM Wed 46 46 E 8 11552 10320 2520 White 10
9 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 11113 9614 1814 White 8
10 PM Wed 43 43 E 8 10386 9466 1666 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 42 42 E 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 42 42 E 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 42 42 E 7 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 9623 8825 1025 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 40 40 E 7 9476 8708 908 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 39 39 E 7 9328 8607 807 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 39 39 E 7 9328 8607 807 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 40 40 E 7 9476 8708 908 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 41 42 E 7 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 41 43 E 6 10386 9466 1666 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 41 44 E 6 11113 9614 1814 White 8
12 Noon Thu 42 46 E 6 11552 10320 2520 White 10
1 PM Thu 44 48 E 5 11991 11687 3887 White 12
2 PM Thu 46 49 E 5 12208 12182 4382 White 13
3 PM Thu 48 50 E 5 12424 12424 4624 White 14
4 PM Thu 50 51 E 3 12640 12640 4840 White 15
5 PM Thu 50 50 E 3 12424 12424 4624 White 14
6 PM Thu 50 50 E 3 12424 12424 4624 White 14
7 PM Thu 49 49 E 3 12208 12182 4382 White 13
8 PM Thu 48 48 E 5 11991 11687 3887 White 12
9 PM Thu 46 46 E 6 11552 10320 2520 White 10
10 PM Thu 44 44 NE 6 11113 9614 1814 White 8
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 7 10386 9466 1666 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NE 7 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 7 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 42 42 NE 9 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 42 42 NE 9 9771 9319 1519 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 43 43 E 10 10386 9466 1666 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 44 45 E 10 11332 9761 1961 White 9
10 AM Fri 44 46 E 12 11552 10320 2520 White 10
11 AM Fri 45 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
12 Noon Fri 46 50 E 13 12424 12424 4624 White 14
1 PM Fri 47 51 E 13 12640 12640 4840 White 15
2 PM Fri 48 51 E 14 12640 12640 4840 White 15
3 PM Fri 50 52 E 13 12856 12856 5056 White 16
4 PM Fri 51 52 E 13 12856 12856 5056 White 16
5 PM Fri 52 52 E 13 12856 12856 5056 White 16
6 PM Fri 53 53 E 14 13070 13070 5270 White 17
7 PM Fri 54 54 E 14 13282 13282 5482 White 18
8 PM Fri 55 55 E 14 13494 13494 5694 White 19
9 PM Fri 55 55 E 15 13494 13494 5694 White 19
10 PM Fri 56 56 E 15 13705 13705 5905 White 20
11 PM Fri 56 56 E 15 13705 13705 5905 White 20
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 E 16 13705 13705 5905 White 20
1 AM Sat 56 56 E 16 13705 13705 5905 White 20
2 AM Sat 56 56 E 16 13705 13705 5905 White 20
3 AM Sat 55 55 E 15 13494 13494 5694 White 19
4 AM Sat 53 53 E 15 13070 13070 5270 White 17
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 15 12640 12640 4840 White 15
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 15 12208 12182 4382 White 13
7 AM Sat 47 47 E 14 11772 11022 3222 White 11
8 AM Sat 47 47 E 14 11772 11022 3222 White 11
9 AM Sat 47 48 E 14 11991 11687 3887 White 12
10 AM Sat 47 49 E 15 12208 12182 4382 White 13
11 AM Sat 48 51 E 15 12640 12640 4840 White 15
12 Noon Sat 49 52 E 15 12856 12856 5056 White 16
1 PM Sat 50 53 E 15 13070 13070 5270 White 17
2 PM Sat 51 53 E 15 13070 13070 5270 White 17
3 PM Sat 53 54 E 16 13282 13282 5482 White 18
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 16 13282 13282 5482 White 18
5 PM Sat 55 55 E 16 13494 13494 5694 White 19
6 PM Sat 55 55 E 16 13494 13494 5694 White 19
7 PM Sat 55 55 E 15 13494 13494 5694 White 19
8 PM Sat 54 54 E 15 13282 13282 5482 White 18
9 PM Sat 53 53 E 15 13070 13070 5270 White 17
10 PM Sat 52 52 E 15 12856 12856 5056 White 16
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 14 12640 12640 4840 White 15
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 E 14 12424 12424 4624 White 14
1 AM Sun 50 50 E 14 12424 12424 4624 White 14
2 AM Sun 49 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
3 AM Sun 49 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
5 AM Sun 49 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 13 11991 11687 3887 White 12
8 AM Sun 48 48 E 13 11991 11687 3887 White 12
9 AM Sun 48 48 E 13 11991 11687 3887 White 12
10 AM Sun 48 49 E 13 12208 12182 4382 White 13
11 AM Sun 48 50 E 13 12424 12424 4624 White 14
12 Noon Sun 49 51 SE 13 12640 12640 4840 White 15
1 PM Sun 50 52 SE 13 12856 12856 5056 White 16
2 PM Sun 51 52 SE 13 12856 12856 5056 White 16
3 PM Sun 53 54 SE 12 13282 13282 5482 White 18
4 PM Sun 54 54 SE 12 13282 13282 5482 White 18
5 PM Sun 55 55 SE 10 13494 13494 5694 White 19
6 PM Sun 55 55 SE 10 13494 13494 5694 White 19
7 PM Sun 55 55 SE 10 13494 13494 5694 White 19
8 PM Sun 53 53 SE 9 13070 13070 5270 White 17
9 PM Sun 52 52 SE 9 12856 12856 5056 White 16
10 PM Sun 50 50 SE 9 12424 12424 4624 White 14
11 PM Sun 48 48 SE 8 11991 11687 3887 White 12
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 SE 8 11772 11022 3222 White 11
1 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 11552 10320 2520 White 10
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 11552 10320 2520 White 10
3 AM Mon 47 47 E 7 11772 11022 3222 White 11
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 7 11772 11022 3222 White 11
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 7 11772 11022 3222 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com