Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 50 NE 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 56 NE 5 15673 10589 2789 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 55 60 E 5 16321 15716 7916 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 58 63 E 5 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 60 65 E 3 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 61 65 E 3 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 62 65 NE 2 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 62 64 N 3 17871 16551 8751 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 62 62 N 5 16980 15920 8120 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 16321 15716 7916 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 6 15830 15598 7798 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 55 55 NE 6 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 52 52 NE 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 54 SE 7 14835 7800 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 55 59 SE 7 15986 15657 7857 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 58 63 SE 8 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 60 65 SE 8 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 62 67 SE 8 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 63 67 SE 8 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 63 65 S 7 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 63 64 S 7 17871 16551 8751 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 62 62 S 7 16980 15920 8120 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 16652 15795 7995 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 58 58 S 6 15830 15598 7798 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 55 55 SE 5 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 53 53 SE 5 11503 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 SE 8 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 57 59 SE 7 15986 15657 7857 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 60 63 SE 7 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 63 66 SE 7 19137 17198 9398 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 64 67 SE 7 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 64 67 SE 6 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 64 66 SE 5 19137 17198 9398 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 63 64 SE 5 17871 16551 8751 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 61 61 SE 5 16652 15795 7995 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 60 60 SE 5 16321 15716 7916 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 15732 14801 7001 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 55 55 E 5 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 53 53 E 5 11503 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 E 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 E 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 55 E 5 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 56 59 E 5 15986 15657 7857 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 59 63 E 5 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 61 66 E 5 19137 17198 9398 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 63 68 E 2 19730 18480 10680 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 64 68 E 1 19730 18480 10680 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 64 67 W 2 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 64 65 NW 3 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 63 63 NW 5 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 16652 15795 7995 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 59 59 NW 5 15986 15657 7857 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 3 15732 14801 7001 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 54 54 NE 5 14835 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 53 53 E 7 11503 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 E 8 11503 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 E 9 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 57 SE 7 15732 14801 7001 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 58 61 SE 6 16652 15795 7995 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 62 66 SE 6 19137 17198 9398 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 65 70 SE 6 20847 19313 11513 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 66 71 SE 5 21316 19606 11806 White 18
2 PM Fri 67 71 SE 5 21316 19606 11806 White 18
3 PM Fri 67 70 SE 5 20847 19313 11513 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 67 68 SE 3 19730 18480 10680 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 66 66 SE 3 19137 17198 9398 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 64 64 SE 3 17871 16551 8751 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 61 61 SE 3 16652 15795 7995 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 58 58 SE 3 15830 15598 7798 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 56 56 SE 5 15673 10589 2789 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 55 55 SE 6 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 54 54 E 6 14835 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 E 7 14835 7800 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 E 7 11503 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SE 6 14835 7800 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 57 59 SE 6 15986 15657 7857 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 60 63 SE 5 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 63 67 SE 5 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 66 71 SE 5 21316 19606 11806 White 18
1 PM Sat 67 72 S 5 21514 19938 12138 White 19
2 PM Sat 68 72 S 5 21514 19938 12138 White 19
3 PM Sat 68 71 S 5 21316 19606 11806 White 18
4 PM Sat 68 69 S 5 20221 19018 11218 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 67 67 SW 6 19435 17692 9892 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 18836 16876 9076 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 63 63 SW 5 17351 16223 8423 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 16321 15716 7916 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 5 15830 15598 7798 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 5 15673 10589 2789 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 5 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NW 6 15614 7800 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 14835 7800 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 11503 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com