Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 3 7809 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NE 3 7715 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 3 7715 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 7904 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NE 2 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 48 49 N 2 9039 8500 700 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 52 54 N 2 9856 9410 1610 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 55 57 N 2 11566 9845 2045 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 57 60 NE 2 12710 11460 3660 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 57 59 NE 3 12429 10608 2808 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 57 58 NE 3 12146 9990 2190 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 3 10697 9700 1900 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 5 9856 9410 1610 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 52 52 SW 3 9564 9028 1228 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 3 8811 8436 636 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 3 8502 8308 508 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 8374 8110 310 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 43 43 SW 5 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 43 43 SW 5 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SW 6 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 42 42 SW 6 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 42 42 S 7 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 42 42 S 7 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 41 41 S 8 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 40 40 S 8 7904 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 S 10 7809 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SW 10 7809 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SW 12 7904 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 SW 13 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 47 48 SW 14 8811 8436 636 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 50 51 SW 16 9419 8802 1002 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 52 54 SW 16 9856 9410 1610 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 53 55 SW 16 10001 9555 1755 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 53 54 S 17 9856 9410 1610 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 51 52 S 17 9564 9028 1228 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 49 49 S 17 9039 8500 700 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 47 47 S 18 8582 8372 572 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 46 46 S 18 8502 8308 508 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 45 45 S 20 8438 8244 444 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 44 44 S 20 8374 8110 310 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 43 43 S 20 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 42 42 S 21 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 42 42 S 22 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 S 22 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 41 41 S 23 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 41 41 S 23 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 41 41 S 23 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 22 7904 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 S 22 7904 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 S 20 7809 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 S 22 7715 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 S 22 7620 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 SW 20 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 SW 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 33 33 SW 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 33 33 SW 20 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 34 34 SW 22 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 34 34 SW 24 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 32 32 SW 23 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 30 30 SW 22 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 29 29 W 21 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 W 20 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 27 27 W 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 28 W 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 W 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 W 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 W 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 NW 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 NW 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 NW 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 26 NW 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 NW 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 NW 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 NW 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 NW 18 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 NW 17 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 NW 16 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 32 NW 16 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 35 NW 16 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 35 37 NW 15 7620 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 36 39 NW 15 7809 7800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 37 39 NW 15 7809 7800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 37 38 NW 15 7715 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 37 NW 15 7620 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 NW 15 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 NW 14 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 NW 13 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 N 12 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 N 10 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 N 7 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 N 7 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 N 6 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 37 N 5 7620 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 41 N 5 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 42 44 NW 5 8374 8110 310 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 44 46 NW 5 8502 8308 508 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 45 46 W 6 8502 8308 508 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 45 46 W 6 8502 8308 508 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 44 44 W 6 8374 8110 310 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 43 43 W 7 8310 7903 103 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 41 41 W 6 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 38 38 NW 6 7715 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 NW 6 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 NW 6 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 N 6 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 N 7 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 N 7 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 N 10 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 N 10 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 N 10 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 N 9 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 41 N 9 8114 7800 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 44 46 NE 10 8502 8308 508 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 47 49 NE 9 9039 8500 700 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 48 50 NE 9 9266 8575 775 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 49 51 NE 9 9419 8802 1002 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 49 50 NE 9 9266 8575 775 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 48 48 NE 9 8811 8436 636 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 47 47 NE 9 8582 8372 572 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 45 45 NE 8 8438 8244 444 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 42 42 NE 8 8246 7809 9 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 40 40 NE 8 7904 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 NE 7 7715 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 NE 7 7620 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 NE 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 N 8 7582 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 N 7 7582 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com