Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 18 18 NE 3 7216 7292 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 17 17 NE 3 7206 7292 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 18 18 NE 3 7216 7292 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 23 23 NE 3 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 35 35 NE 6 7383 7354 62 Blue 23
10 AM Sun 41 42 NE 8 7463 7425 133 Blue 30
11 AM Sun 44 46 NE 9 7580 7475 183 Blue 34
12 Noon Sun 46 49 NE 10 7838 7579 287 Blue 37
1 PM Sun 48 50 NE 10 8325 7664 372 Blue 38
2 PM Sun 48 50 NE 10 8325 7664 372 Blue 38
3 PM Sun 48 49 NE 10 7838 7579 287 Blue 37
4 PM Sun 47 47 NE 9 7666 7491 199 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 41 41 NE 8 7450 7413 121 Blue 29
6 PM Sun 35 35 NE 7 7383 7354 62 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 31 31 NE 6 7344 7314 22 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 27 27 NE 5 7305 7292 0 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 26 26 NE 5 7295 7292 0 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 25 25 NE 5 7285 7292 0 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 23 23 NE 5 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 E 5 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 23 23 E 3 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 23 23 E 3 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 22 22 E 3 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 21 21 E 3 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 20 20 E 3 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 20 20 E 3 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 19 19 E 3 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 23 23 E 3 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 34 34 E 3 7373 7344 52 Blue 22
10 AM Mon 40 41 E 5 7450 7413 121 Blue 29
11 AM Mon 43 45 E 5 7511 7463 171 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 46 48 E 3 7752 7511 219 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 48 50 E 3 8325 7664 372 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 48 49 NE 3 7838 7579 287 Blue 37
3 PM Mon 47 48 NE 3 7752 7511 219 Blue 36
4 PM Mon 43 43 E 5 7476 7437 145 Blue 31
5 PM Mon 39 39 E 5 7425 7393 101 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 34 34 E 3 7373 7344 52 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 29 29 E 2 7324 7295 3 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 25 25 S 2 7285 7292 0 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 22 22 SW 2 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 21 21 SW 2 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 21 21 SW 2 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 W 2 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 21 21 W 2 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 22 22 W 3 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 21 21 W 3 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 20 20 NW 2 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 19 19 NW 3 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 20 20 N 3 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 21 21 N 5 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 25 25 N 6 7285 7292 0 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 31 31 N 7 7344 7314 22 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 38 39 NE 8 7425 7393 101 Blue 27
11 AM Tue 44 46 N 9 7580 7475 183 Blue 34
12 Noon Tue 48 50 NE 9 8325 7664 372 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 48 50 NE 10 8325 7664 372 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 48 50 NE 10 8325 7664 372 Blue 38
3 PM Tue 46 47 NE 10 7666 7491 199 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 43 43 NE 10 7476 7437 145 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 40 40 NE 10 7438 7403 111 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 35 35 NE 10 7383 7354 62 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 31 31 NE 9 7344 7314 22 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 27 27 NE 9 7305 7292 0 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 25 25 NE 9 7285 7292 0 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 23 23 NE 9 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 22 22 NE 9 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 NE 8 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 22 22 NE 8 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 22 22 NE 8 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 22 22 NE 8 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 21 21 NE 8 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 20 20 NE 8 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 20 20 NE 6 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 20 20 NE 6 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 22 22 NE 7 7256 7292 0 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 27 27 NE 8 7305 7292 0 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 32 33 NE 9 7364 7334 42 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 37 39 NE 10 7425 7393 101 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 39 41 NE 12 7450 7413 121 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 40 42 NE 12 7463 7425 133 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 40 42 NE 12 7463 7425 133 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 39 40 NE 12 7438 7403 111 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 37 37 NE 12 7403 7373 81 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 34 34 NE 10 7373 7344 52 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 29 29 NE 9 7324 7295 3 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 24 24 NE 8 7275 7292 0 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 19 19 NE 8 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 17 17 NE 8 7206 7292 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 16 16 NE 9 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 16 16 NE 9 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 16 16 NE 9 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 16 16 NE 10 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 16 16 NE 10 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 15 15 NE 10 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 14 14 NE 9 7174 7292 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 14 14 NE 9 7174 7292 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 13 13 NE 9 7163 7292 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 14 14 NE 9 7174 7292 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 16 16 NE 9 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 21 21 NE 10 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 26 27 NE 12 7305 7292 0 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 31 33 NE 13 7364 7334 42 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 34 36 NE 13 7393 7363 71 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 36 38 NE 13 7413 7383 91 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 36 38 NE 13 7413 7383 91 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 35 36 NE 12 7393 7363 71 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 34 34 NE 10 7373 7344 52 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 31 31 NE 9 7344 7314 22 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 27 27 NE 8 7305 7292 0 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 23 23 NE 7 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 19 19 NE 7 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 17 17 NE 7 7206 7292 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 16 16 NE 7 7195 7292 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 15 15 NE 7 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 15 15 NE 7 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 15 15 NE 7 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 15 15 NE 7 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 15 15 NE 7 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 14 14 NE 7 7174 7292 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 14 14 NE 7 7174 7292 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 14 14 NE 7 7174 7292 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 15 15 NE 7 7184 7292 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 19 19 NE 7 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 25 25 NE 8 7285 7292 0 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 31 32 NE 9 7354 7324 32 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 37 39 NE 10 7425 7393 101 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 41 43 NE 10 7476 7437 145 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 42 44 NE 10 7491 7450 158 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 42 44 NE 10 7491 7450 158 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 41 42 NE 9 7463 7425 133 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 39 39 NE 9 7425 7393 101 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 36 36 NE 8 7393 7363 71 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 32 32 NE 7 7354 7324 32 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 27 27 NE 6 7305 7292 0 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 23 23 NE 6 7265 7292 0 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 21 21 NE 6 7246 7292 0 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 20 20 NE 7 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 19 19 NE 7 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 NE 7 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 20 20 NE 8 7236 7292 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 19 19 NE 8 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 19 19 NE 8 7226 7292 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 18 18 NE 7 7216 7292 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com