Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

1 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 8 18 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 7 16 9053 7647 355 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 60 60 WSW 7 15 9053 7647 355 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 6 13 8180 7622 330 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 6 13 7719 7596 304 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 6 12 7719 7596 304 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 WSW 5 11 7648 7571 279 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 5 11 7622 7545 253 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 4 8 7622 7545 253 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 WSW 5 6 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 61 64 WSW 6 8 14697 9646 2354 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 70 WSW 6 8 19375 19426 12134 White 12
12 Noon Sat 70 76 SW 7 8 19290 19290 11998 White 18
1 PM Sat 68 72 SW 8 10 19347 19347 12055 White 14
2 PM Sat 69 72 WSW 11 12 19347 19347 12055 White 14
3 PM Sat 70 72 WSW 11 13 19347 19347 12055 White 14
4 PM Sat 69 70 WSW 11 12 19375 19426 12134 White 12
5 PM Sat 68 68 SW 9 10 19404 16849 9557 White 10
6 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 8 10 19404 16849 9557 White 10
7 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 6 10 17161 10102 2810 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 6 12 10143 8154 862 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 7 14 12200 9006 1714 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 7 14 10143 8154 862 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 6 14 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 6 12 10143 8154 862 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 4 10 7622 7545 253 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 3 6 7648 7571 279 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 1 3 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 53 53 SSE 1 2 7546 7469 177 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 SSE 2 5 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SSE 2 5 9053 7647 355 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 54 54 S 1 3 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 S 0 1 7597 7520 228 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 S 0 1 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 64 67 S 2 2 19418 14411 7119 White 9
11 AM Sun 67 68 S 4 5 19404 16849 9557 White 10
12 Noon Sun 66 68 SSW 5 6 19404 16849 9557 White 10
1 PM Sun 66 67 SSW 6 8 19418 14411 7119 White 9
2 PM Sun 65 69 SSW 6 9 19389 19465 12173 White 11
3 PM Sun 66 67 S 6 8 19418 14411 7119 White 9
4 PM Sun 65 66 S 7 8 19432 11941 4649 White 8
5 PM Sun 67 67 S 7 8 19418 14411 7119 White 9
6 PM Sun 66 66 SSW 8 11 19432 11941 4649 White 8
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 5 9 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 4 9 7622 7545 253 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 NNW 3 6 12200 9006 1714 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 0 0 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 S 1 3 7546 7469 177 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 2 5 9053 7647 355 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 54 54 S 1 3 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 SW 0 1 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NW 0 0 8180 7622 330 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 53 53 NE 0 1 7546 7469 177 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 2 4 7520 7443 151 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 E 2 5 7648 7571 279 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 E 2 5 7520 7443 151 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 3 6 7546 7469 177 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 E 2 4 7546 7469 177 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 63 ENE 2 3 12200 9006 1714 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 63 64 ENE 3 4 14697 9646 2354 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 59 61 NE 4 5 9682 7712 420 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 67 72 NNE 5 6 19347 19347 12055 White 14
2 PM Mon 65 69 N 6 6 19389 19465 12173 White 11
3 PM Mon 63 63 ESE 3 4 12200 9006 1714 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 65 65 SSW 3 3 17161 10102 2810 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 62 62 WNW 4 5 10143 8154 862 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 6 8 8180 7622 330 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 54 54 SSE 7 11 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 SSW 3 7 7520 7443 151 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 2 5 7571 7494 202 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 1 3 7546 7469 177 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 1 3 7520 7443 151 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com