Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 MAY 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 21 29 16691 9094 1802 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 57 57 SW 23 32 9756 8783 1491 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 23 32 9115 8251 959 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 55 55 SW 21 31 9115 8251 959 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 54 54 SW 23 31 8797 7984 692 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 54 54 SW 23 32 8797 7984 692 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 53 53 SW 25 34 8530 7715 423 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 56 56 SW 27 37 9450 8518 1226 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 60 62 SW 28 40 17280 16839 9547 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 62 66 SW 29 41 17973 17482 10190 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 63 69 SW 31 43 18560 17959 10667 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 65 73 SW 31 50 19982 18780 11488 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 66 75 SW 32 51 21282 19298 12006 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 66 74 SW 33 52 20648 19040 11748 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 67 74 SW 33 52 20648 19040 11748 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 66 71 SW 33 52 19085 18257 10965 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 65 68 SW 32 51 18296 17862 10570 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 65 66 SW 29 48 17973 17482 10190 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 63 63 SW 27 39 17510 16918 9626 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 24 34 16847 9426 2134 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 57 57 SW 20 29 9756 8783 1491 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 18 26 8797 7984 692 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 52 52 SW 17 24 8261 7444 152 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 51 51 SW 14 16 7991 7292 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SW 12 14 7172 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 SW 11 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 SW 10 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 10 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 10 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 11 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 10 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 9 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 SW 9 11 7991 7292 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 53 56 SW 10 12 9450 8518 1226 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 56 60 SW 11 14 16926 9733 2441 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 59 65 SW 13 21 17875 17253 9961 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 61 68 SW 14 24 18296 17862 10570 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 62 69 SW 17 26 18560 17959 10667 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 63 70 SW 17 27 18823 18057 10765 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 64 69 SW 18 28 18560 17959 10667 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 65 68 SW 18 28 18296 17862 10570 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 64 65 SW 17 27 17875 17253 9961 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 62 62 SW 14 18 17280 16839 9547 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 58 58 SW 13 18 16691 9094 1802 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 12 16 9115 8251 959 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 53 53 SW 11 12 8530 7715 423 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 51 51 SW 11 12 7991 7292 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 49 49 SW 10 11 7447 7292 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SW 9 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SW 8 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 SW 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 6 8 7720 7292 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 55 57 SW 9 11 9756 8783 1491 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 59 63 SW 11 14 17510 16918 9626 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 62 67 SW 13 18 18070 17748 10456 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 65 72 SW 16 25 19345 18519 11227 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 67 75 SW 17 27 21282 19298 12006 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 68 75 SW 18 28 21282 19298 12006 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 68 74 SW 18 29 20648 19040 11748 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 69 74 SW 18 29 20648 19040 11748 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 69 72 SW 18 29 19345 18519 11227 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 68 69 SW 17 28 18560 17959 10667 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 65 65 SW 16 20 17875 17253 9961 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 13 17 17048 16673 9381 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 11 14 9756 8783 1491 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 54 54 SW 10 11 8797 7984 692 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 9 10 8261 7444 152 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 9 10 7720 7292 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 WSW 8 9 7447 7292 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 8 9 7172 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 8 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 6 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 6 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 6 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 6 8 7172 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 8 9 8530 7715 423 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 59 61 WSW 9 11 17048 16673 9381 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 63 67 WSW 10 13 18070 17748 10456 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 66 72 WSW 11 14 19345 18519 11227 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 68 76 WSW 12 20 21886 19844 12552 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 70 78 WSW 13 23 23025 21129 13837 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 71 79 WSW 14 24 23564 21728 14436 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 72 79 WSW 16 25 23564 21728 14436 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 73 78 WSW 17 27 23025 21129 13837 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 72 75 WSW 17 27 21282 19298 12006 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 71 72 WSW 17 26 19345 18519 11227 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 68 68 WSW 14 19 18296 17862 10570 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 12 16 17875 17253 9961 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 10 13 17048 16673 9381 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 9 10 16691 9094 1802 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 8 9 9115 8251 959 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 8 9 8530 7715 423 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 WSW 6 8 7991 7292 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 6 8 7720 7292 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 6 8 7447 7292 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 W 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 W 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 W 5 6 7447 7292 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 55 55 W 8 9 9115 8251 959 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 61 63 WSW 9 11 17510 16918 9626 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 65 69 WSW 11 13 18560 17959 10667 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 68 74 WSW 12 16 20648 19040 11748 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 70 77 WSW 14 23 22467 20503 13211 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 72 80 WSW 16 25 24086 22303 15011 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 73 81 WSW 16 26 24717 22857 15565 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 74 81 WSW 17 26 24717 22857 15565 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 75 80 WSW 17 27 24086 22303 15011 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 75 78 W 17 27 23025 21129 13837 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 74 75 W 17 26 21282 19298 12006 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 14 19 19085 18257 10965 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 13 17 18070 17748 10456 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 11 14 17510 16918 9626 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 11 16926 9733 2441 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 10 9756 8783 1491 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 9 9115 8251 959 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 W 8 9 8530 7715 423 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 8 9 7991 7292 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 8 9 7720 7292 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 6 8 7172 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 6 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 6 8 7720 7292 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 8 9 9450 8518 1226 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 61 63 ENE 9 11 17510 16918 9626 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 65 69 ENE 10 13 18560 17959 10667 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 69 75 E 11 14 21282 19298 12006 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 72 80 E 12 20 24086 22303 15011 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 75 83 ESE 13 21 24884 23909 16617 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 77 85 S 14 23 25052 24769 17477 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 78 85 SW 14 23 25052 24769 17477 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 79 84 SW 14 23 24968 24626 17334 Blue 36
4 PM Wed 79 82 WSW 13 21 24800 23392 16100 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 77 78 WSW 12 20 23025 21129 13837 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 11 14 20648 19040 11748 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 11 18823 18057 10765 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 8 10 17973 17482 10190 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 6 8 17510 16918 9626 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 6 8 16926 9733 2441 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com