Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 WSW 8 18 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 61 61 WSW 8 17 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 7 15 7381 7359 67 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 7 16 7381 7359 67 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 7 15 7374 7350 58 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 6 14 7366 7340 48 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 5 11 7359 7330 38 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 4 10 7350 7320 28 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 60 SW 4 9 7381 7359 67 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 65 67 WSW 8 10 11694 7673 381 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 69 73 WSW 13 15 12211 11936 4644 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 73 79 WSW 16 18 17175 12944 5652 White 22
12 Noon Thu 75 81 WSW 17 19 17590 16287 8995 White 24
1 PM Thu 77 83 WSW 17 19 18004 18004 10712 White 26
2 PM Thu 77 82 WSW 16 18 17797 17305 10013 White 25
3 PM Thu 79 83 WSW 16 19 18004 18004 10712 White 26
4 PM Thu 79 81 WSW 18 20 17590 16287 8995 White 24
5 PM Thu 78 79 WSW 18 21 17175 12944 5652 White 22
6 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 17 20 13010 12201 4909 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 13 15 12211 11936 4644 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 7 15 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 6 12 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 62 62 SW 5 11 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 4 10 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SSW 4 10 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 4 10 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 61 61 SW 4 8 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 60 60 SW 2 6 7381 7359 67 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 60 60 SW 2 4 7381 7359 67 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 59 59 SSW 1 3 7374 7350 58 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 59 59 SSW 1 2 7374 7350 58 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 58 58 SSE 1 2 7366 7340 48 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 62 63 SSE 1 3 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 68 70 SSE 2 3 11963 11669 4377 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 71 75 SSE 5 5 12646 12141 4849 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 75 80 S 6 6 17383 14689 7397 White 23
12 Noon Fri 77 83 S 6 7 18004 18004 10712 White 26
1 PM Fri 77 83 SSW 7 8 18004 18004 10712 White 26
2 PM Fri 75 80 SSW 9 10 17383 14689 7397 White 23
3 PM Fri 74 78 WSW 3 3 16695 12584 5292 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 75 76 SW 7 8 13010 12201 4909 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 69 69 ESE 4 5 11836 9401 2109 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 70 70 SSW 0 1 11963 11669 4377 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 69 69 SSW 4 7 11836 9401 2109 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 3 6 8596 7456 164 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 4 9 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 6 12 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 63 63 SW 6 11 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 WSW 6 12 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 7 13 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 60 60 WSW 6 13 7381 7359 67 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 5 9 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 2 5 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 61 61 SW 5 9 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 4 7 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 5 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 62 63 SW 4 6 7565 7381 89 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 66 68 SW 5 7 11781 8559 1267 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 70 74 SSW 7 8 12277 12081 4789 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 73 78 SSW 9 10 16695 12584 5292 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 76 82 SW 12 13 17797 17305 10013 White 25
1 PM Sat 77 83 SW 15 17 18004 18004 10712 White 26
2 PM Sat 78 83 SW 17 20 18004 18004 10712 White 26
3 PM Sat 78 82 SW 17 20 17797 17305 10013 White 25
4 PM Sat 78 80 SW 18 20 17383 14689 7397 White 23
5 PM Sat 77 78 SW 18 20 16695 12584 5292 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 17 20 12277 12081 4789 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 19 11963 11669 4377 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 19 7674 7389 97 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 18 7456 7374 82 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 17 7389 7366 74 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 60 60 SW 7 15 7381 7359 67 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com