Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 WSW 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 17 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 18 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 32 33 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 35 38 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 38 42 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 41 46 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 42 47 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 43 47 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 44 47 WSW 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 43 44 WSW 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 42 42 WSW 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 40 40 SW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 39 39 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 38 38 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 35 35 SSE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 32 32 E 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 27 27 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 26 26 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 25 25 NE 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 24 24 NE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 24 24 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 24 24 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 24 24 NE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 24 24 NE 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 24 25 NE 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 25 27 NE 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 27 31 NE 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 29 33 NE 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 30 34 NE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 31 35 NE 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 33 36 NE 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 32 33 NE 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 31 31 NNE 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 31 31 NNE 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 29 29 NNE 24 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 27 27 NNE 22 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 25 25 NNE 21 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 25 25 NNE 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 24 24 NNE 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 NNE 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 23 23 NNE 17 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 24 24 NNE 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 24 24 NNE 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 24 24 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 24 24 NE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 24 24 NE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 24 24 NE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 25 25 NE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 25 26 NE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 29 32 NE 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 32 36 ENE 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 35 40 ENE 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 37 42 ENE 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 38 42 ENE 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 40 43 ENE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 39 40 ENE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 39 39 E 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 38 E 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 36 36 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 34 34 ENE 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 31 31 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 32 32 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 32 32 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com