Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
8 AM Sun 73 74 N 2 7377 7341 841 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 77 80 N 2 7602 7446 946 Blue 23
10 AM Sun 81 86 N 3 12115 8207 1707 Blue 29
11 AM Sun 85 91 N 5 15864 15786 9286 Blue 33
12 Noon Sun 88 95 N 6 16078 15880 9380 Blue 37
1 PM Sun 91 98 N 7 17154 16050 9550 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 92 98 NW 8 17154 16050 9550 Blue 40
3 PM Sun 93 98 NW 9 17154 16050 9550 Blue 40
4 PM Sun 93 96 NW 10 16163 15911 9411 Blue 38
5 PM Sun 92 93 NW 10 15922 15832 9332 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 90 90 NW 10 15840 13680 7180 Blue 33
7 PM Sun 87 87 NW 9 15687 8481 1981 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 84 84 NW 7 8508 7737 1237 Blue 27
9 PM Sun 81 81 NW 6 7748 7481 981 Blue 24
10 PM Sun 79 79 NW 6 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 77 77 NW 6 7449 7377 877 Blue 20
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 N 6 7413 7365 865 Blue 19
1 AM Mon 75 75 N 6 7389 7353 853 Blue 18
2 AM Mon 73 73 N 6 7365 7329 829 Blue 16
3 AM Mon 72 72 N 6 7353 7317 817 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
5 AM Mon 68 68 N 5 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 68 68 N 5 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 70 70 NE 3 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 74 75 E 2 7389 7353 853 Blue 18
9 AM Mon 78 81 E 2 7748 7481 981 Blue 24
10 AM Mon 82 86 SE 3 12115 8207 1707 Blue 29
11 AM Mon 85 90 S 6 15840 13680 7180 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 88 94 S 7 16000 15856 9356 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 90 96 S 8 16163 15911 9411 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 91 96 SW 8 16163 15911 9411 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 91 95 SW 8 16078 15880 9380 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 91 93 SW 9 15922 15832 9332 Blue 35
5 PM Mon 90 91 SW 9 15864 15786 9286 Blue 33
6 PM Mon 88 88 SW 9 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 85 85 W 8 9512 7933 1433 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 81 81 W 6 7748 7481 981 Blue 24
9 PM Mon 78 78 NW 5 7484 7389 889 Blue 21
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 3 7413 7365 865 Blue 19
11 PM Mon 74 74 SW 3 7377 7341 841 Blue 17
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 SW 3 7353 7317 817 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 71 71 SW 3 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 71 71 S 3 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 3 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 68 68 S 3 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 67 67 SE 3 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 66 66 E 3 7282 7242 742 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 67 67 E 3 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 69 69 SE 5 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 73 74 S 5 7377 7341 841 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 77 79 S 5 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 81 84 S 6 8508 7737 1237 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 85 88 S 6 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 86 89 S 6 15817 10717 4217 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 87 90 SW 7 15840 13680 7180 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 86 88 SW 7 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 86 87 SW 7 15687 8481 1981 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 85 85 SW 7 9512 7933 1433 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 7 8508 7737 1237 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 82 82 SW 6 7955 7517 1017 Blue 25
8 PM Tue 79 79 S 5 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
9 PM Tue 77 77 S 3 7449 7377 877 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 75 75 S 3 7389 7353 853 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 73 73 SE 3 7365 7329 829 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SE 3 7353 7317 817 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 71 71 SE 3 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 71 71 E 5 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 70 70 E 5 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 69 69 E 5 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 69 69 NE 6 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 70 70 N 6 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 72 72 N 5 7353 7317 817 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 75 76 NW 3 7413 7365 865 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 78 80 W 3 7602 7446 946 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 81 84 W 5 8508 7737 1237 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 84 88 SW 6 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 86 90 SW 9 15840 13680 7180 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 86 89 W 13 15817 10717 4217 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 86 89 W 14 15817 10717 4217 Blue 32
4 PM Wed 85 86 W 14 12115 8207 1707 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 84 84 W 13 8508 7737 1237 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 82 82 W 12 7955 7517 1017 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 79 79 W 10 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 7413 7365 865 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 74 74 NW 8 7377 7341 841 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 72 72 NW 7 7353 7317 817 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 71 71 N 6 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 N 5 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 69 69 N 5 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 69 69 N 5 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 68 68 N 5 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 66 66 N 6 7282 7242 742 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 67 67 N 6 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 68 68 N 6 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 70 70 NW 5 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 73 75 NW 5 7389 7353 853 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 76 79 W 5 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 79 83 W 5 8232 7591 1091 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 82 86 W 6 12115 8207 1707 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 83 87 W 8 15687 8481 1981 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 84 88 W 10 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 84 87 W 12 15687 8481 1981 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 84 86 W 12 12115 8207 1707 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 84 85 W 10 9512 7933 1433 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 9 7955 7517 1017 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 76 76 NW 7 7413 7365 865 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 73 73 NW 6 7365 7329 829 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 71 71 NW 5 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 70 70 N 5 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 3 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 68 68 N 3 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 67 67 N 3 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 66 66 N 5 7282 7242 742 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 66 66 N 5 7282 7242 742 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 70 71 N 3 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 73 75 NW 3 7389 7353 853 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 77 80 NW 3 7602 7446 946 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 81 85 W 5 9512 7933 1433 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 83 88 W 6 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 85 90 W 8 15840 13680 7180 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 85 89 W 10 15817 10717 4217 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 85 88 W 12 15794 9347 2847 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 84 86 W 12 12115 8207 1707 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 84 85 W 10 9512 7933 1433 Blue 28
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 9 7955 7517 1017 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 8 7519 7411 911 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 76 76 NW 7 7413 7365 865 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 74 74 NW 6 7377 7341 841 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 72 72 N 5 7353 7317 817 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 71 71 N 5 7341 7305 805 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 N 3 7329 7293 793 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 69 69 N 3 7317 7281 781 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 7306 7269 769 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 67 67 N 3 7294 7257 757 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 66 66 N 3 7282 7242 742 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 66 66 N 5 7282 7242 742 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com