Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 62 62 S 5 7364 7325 825 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 60 61 S 5 7351 7309 809 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 66 68 S 3 7440 7401 901 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 69 73 S 5 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
10 AM Sat 74 80 S 6 14710 10324 3824 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 77 85 SW 7 18959 15663 9163 Blue 35
12 Noon Sat 81 89 SW 7 20600 19131 12631 Blue 39
1 PM Sat 83 91 SW 9 21162 19983 13483 Blue 41
2 PM Sat 83 90 SW 10 20935 19560 13060 Blue 40
3 PM Sat 84 89 SW 12 20600 19131 12631 Blue 39
4 PM Sat 84 87 SW 13 19771 18204 11704 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 83 84 SW 13 18574 15326 8826 Blue 34
6 PM Sat 82 82 SW 13 15930 13337 6837 Blue 32
7 PM Sat 81 81 SW 14 15440 12055 5555 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 78 78 SW 13 12376 8160 1660 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 76 76 SW 12 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
10 PM Sat 74 74 SW 9 7869 7504 1004 Blue 24
11 PM Sat 73 73 SW 8 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SW 7 7562 7452 952 Blue 22
1 AM Sun 70 70 SW 7 7474 7427 927 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 7453 7414 914 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 67 67 W 6 7428 7389 889 Blue 17
4 AM Sun 65 65 SW 5 7402 7363 863 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 5 7389 7350 850 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 7377 7338 838 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 63 64 W 3 7389 7350 850 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 68 70 NE 5 7474 7427 927 Blue 20
9 AM Sun 71 75 SW 5 8192 7551 1051 Blue 25
10 AM Sun 76 82 SW 6 15930 13337 6837 Blue 32
11 AM Sun 79 86 SW 7 19339 17327 10827 Blue 36
12 Noon Sun 83 91 SW 8 21162 19983 13483 Blue 41
1 PM Sun 84 92 SW 9 21323 20398 13898 Blue 42
2 PM Sun 85 91 SW 12 21162 19983 13483 Blue 41
3 PM Sun 85 89 SW 13 20600 19131 12631 Blue 39
4 PM Sun 84 87 SW 14 19771 18204 11704 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 84 85 SW 14 18959 15663 9163 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 13 17709 14406 7906 Blue 33
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 13 14710 10324 3824 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 13 12376 8160 1660 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 10 7869 7504 1004 Blue 24
11 PM Sun 73 73 SW 8 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 SW 7 7507 7440 940 Blue 21
1 AM Mon 69 69 SW 6 7453 7414 914 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 67 67 S 6 7428 7389 889 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 65 65 S 6 7402 7363 863 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 7389 7350 850 Blue 14
5 AM Mon 62 62 S 6 7364 7325 825 Blue 12
6 AM Mon 62 62 S 6 7364 7325 825 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 7377 7338 838 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 65 66 S 5 7415 7376 876 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 69 71 S 6 7507 7440 940 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 73 76 S 7 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
11 AM Mon 76 80 S 9 14710 10324 3824 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 80 85 S 12 18959 15663 9163 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 82 88 S 14 20198 18818 12318 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 83 89 S 15 20600 19131 12631 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 83 88 S 15 20198 18818 12318 Blue 38
4 PM Mon 83 86 S 15 19339 17327 10827 Blue 36
5 PM Mon 82 83 SW 14 17709 14406 7906 Blue 33
6 PM Mon 81 81 SW 14 15440 12055 5555 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 78 78 SW 13 12376 8160 1660 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 12 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 9 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
10 PM Mon 71 71 S 8 7507 7440 940 Blue 21
11 PM Mon 70 70 S 7 7474 7427 927 Blue 20
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 S 7 7453 7414 914 Blue 19
1 AM Tue 67 67 S 7 7428 7389 889 Blue 17
2 AM Tue 65 65 S 7 7402 7363 863 Blue 15
3 AM Tue 63 63 S 6 7377 7338 838 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 61 61 S 5 7351 7309 809 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 7339 7290 790 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 7339 7290 790 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 3 7351 7309 809 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 64 66 SE 3 7415 7376 876 Blue 16
9 AM Tue 68 72 S 3 7562 7452 952 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 72 78 S 6 12376 8160 1660 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 77 84 S 7 18574 15326 8826 Blue 34
12 Noon Tue 80 88 SW 9 20198 18818 12318 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 82 90 SW 10 20935 19560 13060 Blue 40
2 PM Tue 83 90 SW 12 20935 19560 13060 Blue 40
3 PM Tue 84 89 SW 13 20600 19131 12631 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 84 88 SW 13 20198 18818 12318 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 84 86 SW 13 19339 17327 10827 Blue 36
6 PM Tue 83 83 SW 12 17709 14406 7906 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 12 15440 12055 5555 Blue 31
8 PM Tue 78 78 SW 10 12376 8160 1660 Blue 28
9 PM Tue 76 76 SW 9 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
10 PM Tue 73 73 SW 8 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
11 PM Tue 72 72 W 7 7562 7452 952 Blue 22
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 7 7474 7427 927 Blue 20
1 AM Wed 69 69 NW 7 7453 7414 914 Blue 19
2 AM Wed 67 67 N 6 7428 7389 889 Blue 17
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 7402 7363 863 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 7377 7338 838 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 7351 7309 809 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 7351 7309 809 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 63 64 N 5 7389 7350 850 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 66 68 N 5 7440 7401 901 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 71 75 NW 5 8192 7551 1051 Blue 25
10 AM Wed 75 81 W 3 15440 12055 5555 Blue 31
11 AM Wed 79 87 SW 5 19771 18204 11704 Blue 37
12 Noon Wed 82 91 SW 7 21162 19983 13483 Blue 41
1 PM Wed 85 94 SW 9 21920 21073 14573 Blue 44
2 PM Wed 86 94 SW 10 21920 21073 14573 Blue 44
3 PM Wed 87 93 SW 12 21619 20755 14255 Blue 43
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 13 21162 19983 13483 Blue 41
5 PM Wed 87 89 SW 14 20600 19131 12631 Blue 39
6 PM Wed 86 86 SW 15 19339 17327 10827 Blue 36
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 15 17709 14406 7906 Blue 33
8 PM Wed 81 81 SW 14 15440 12055 5555 Blue 31
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 13 12376 8160 1660 Blue 28
10 PM Wed 76 76 SW 10 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
11 PM Wed 74 74 SW 9 7869 7504 1004 Blue 24
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 S 8 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
1 AM Thu 71 71 S 5 7507 7440 940 Blue 21
2 AM Thu 69 69 N 3 7453 7414 914 Blue 19
3 AM Thu 67 67 N 7 7428 7389 889 Blue 17
4 AM Thu 65 65 N 7 7402 7363 863 Blue 15
5 AM Thu 63 63 N 6 7377 7338 838 Blue 13
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 5 7377 7338 838 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 65 66 N 3 7415 7376 876 Blue 16
8 AM Thu 68 70 W 3 7474 7427 927 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 72 76 SW 6 8994 7704 1204 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 76 82 SW 7 15930 13337 6837 Blue 32
11 AM Thu 80 88 SW 9 20198 18818 12318 Blue 38
12 Noon Thu 84 93 SW 12 21619 20755 14255 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 86 95 SW 14 22514 21233 14733 Blue 45
2 PM Thu 87 95 SW 15 22514 21233 14733 Blue 45
3 PM Thu 87 93 SW 15 21619 20755 14255 Blue 43
4 PM Thu 87 91 SW 15 21162 19983 13483 Blue 41
5 PM Thu 86 88 SW 15 20198 18818 12318 Blue 38
6 PM Thu 85 85 SW 15 18959 15663 9163 Blue 35
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 15 17709 14406 7906 Blue 33
8 PM Thu 81 81 SW 14 15440 12055 5555 Blue 31
9 PM Thu 79 79 SW 14 13646 8792 2292 Blue 29
10 PM Thu 77 77 SW 13 10679 7856 1356 Blue 27
11 PM Thu 75 75 S 10 8192 7551 1051 Blue 25
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 S 8 7715 7472 972 Blue 23
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 7 7562 7452 952 Blue 22
2 AM Fri 70 70 SW 8 7474 7427 927 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 68 68 W 8 7440 7401 901 Blue 18
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 6 7415 7376 876 Blue 16
5 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 7389 7350 850 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com