Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 44 44 NE 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 55 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 62 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 68 NE 5 15655 9564 3064 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 67 73 N 5 16507 15750 9250 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 70 76 N 5 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 72 77 N 5 18246 16701 10201 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 73 76 N 5 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 73 75 NW 5 17140 16066 9566 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 72 72 NW 7 16185 15693 9193 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 71 71 NW 7 15909 15635 9135 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 7 15655 9564 3064 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 65 65 N 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 65 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 70 SE 5 15786 15574 9074 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 68 74 S 6 16825 15864 9364 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 71 76 S 7 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 72 76 S 7 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 73 75 S 7 17140 16066 9566 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 73 74 S 8 16825 15864 9364 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 72 72 S 8 16185 15693 9193 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 70 70 S 7 15786 15574 9074 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 68 68 SW 5 15655 9564 3064 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 65 65 SW 2 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 NW 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 SE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 70 SE 6 15786 15574 9074 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 71 74 SE 6 16825 15864 9364 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 73 76 S 6 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 74 76 S 6 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 74 76 S 5 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 73 74 SE 5 16825 15864 9364 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 72 72 SE 5 16185 15693 9193 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 70 70 SE 5 15786 15574 9074 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 67 67 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 62 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 68 E 6 15655 9564 3064 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 67 72 E 5 16185 15693 9193 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 69 74 E 3 16825 15864 9364 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 71 76 E 2 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 73 77 W 2 18246 16701 10201 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 74 77 W 3 18246 16701 10201 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 74 75 W 6 17140 16066 9566 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 73 73 W 7 16507 15750 9250 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 16185 15693 9193 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 15713 14760 8260 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 67 67 NW 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NE 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NE 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 E 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 E 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 E 6 15713 14760 8260 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 70 75 E 5 17140 16066 9566 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 73 78 E 5 18946 17013 10513 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 75 80 SE 3 19523 17870 11370 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 77 81 SE 3 19808 18809 12309 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 77 80 S 3 19523 17870 11370 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 77 78 S 3 18946 17013 10513 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 76 76 S 5 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 74 74 S 5 16825 15864 9364 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 71 71 S 5 15909 15635 9135 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 68 68 S 3 15655 9564 3064 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 65 65 E 2 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 71 E 5 15909 15635 9135 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 72 76 E 5 17590 16385 9885 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 75 80 SE 5 19523 17870 11370 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 77 82 SE 3 20365 19096 12596 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 78 82 S 3 20365 19096 12596 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 78 81 S 3 19808 18809 12309 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 78 79 S 3 19236 17380 10880 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 77 77 S 5 18246 16701 10201 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 5 17140 16066 9566 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 5 16185 15693 9193 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 5 15713 14760 8260 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com