Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

28 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 33 33 N 7 7342 7282 782 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 32 32 N 7 7318 7266 766 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 33 33 NE 7 7342 7282 782 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 7 7366 7298 798 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 37 37 NE 7 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 41 42 NE 6 7558 7484 984 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 45 47 N 5 7740 7622 1122 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 49 52 N 5 9064 8419 1919 Blue 30
1 PM Sat 52 55 N 5 10089 9019 2519 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 53 55 N 5 10089 9019 2519 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 54 55 N 5 10089 9019 2519 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 9423 8558 2058 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 8573 7737 1237 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 48 48 N 3 7850 7660 1160 Blue 26
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 5 7740 7622 1122 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 7702 7584 1084 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 5 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 5 7587 7508 1008 Blue 21
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 5 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 5 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
2 AM Sun 39 39 N 5 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 38 38 N 6 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
4 AM Sun 38 38 N 6 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 6 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
6 AM Sun 37 37 N 6 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
7 AM Sun 36 36 N 6 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 6 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 43 43 NE 6 7587 7508 1008 Blue 21
10 AM Sun 47 48 NE 6 7850 7660 1160 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 51 53 NE 6 9423 8558 2058 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 55 58 NE 6 10988 10039 3539 Blue 36
1 PM Sun 58 60 NE 6 11882 10524 4024 Blue 38
2 PM Sun 60 62 NE 6 12739 11348 4848 Blue 40
3 PM Sun 59 60 NE 7 11882 10524 4024 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 56 56 NE 8 10346 9374 2874 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 54 54 NE 9 9773 8697 2197 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 51 51 NE 10 8713 7840 1340 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 49 49 NE 9 8433 7699 1199 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 48 48 NE 9 7850 7660 1160 Blue 26
9 PM Sun 46 46 NE 8 7702 7584 1084 Blue 24
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 8 7625 7533 1033 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 43 43 NE 7 7587 7508 1008 Blue 21
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 7 7558 7484 984 Blue 20
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 7 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 7510 7436 936 Blue 18
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 8 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 39 39 E 8 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
5 AM Mon 38 38 E 8 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
6 AM Mon 37 37 E 7 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
7 AM Mon 37 37 E 7 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
8 AM Mon 38 38 E 6 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 7510 7436 936 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 44 45 E 5 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 48 50 E 5 8573 7737 1237 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 52 55 SE 3 10089 9019 2519 Blue 33
1 PM Mon 54 57 SE 3 10562 9725 3225 Blue 35
2 PM Mon 55 57 SE 3 10562 9725 3225 Blue 35
3 PM Mon 54 55 NE 3 10089 9019 2519 Blue 33
4 PM Mon 52 52 N 3 9064 8419 1919 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 50 50 N 3 8573 7737 1237 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 49 49 NE 3 8433 7699 1199 Blue 27
7 PM Mon 48 48 NE 5 7850 7660 1160 Blue 26
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 5 7702 7584 1084 Blue 24
9 PM Mon 45 45 E 5 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 5 7587 7508 1008 Blue 21
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 5 7558 7484 984 Blue 20
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 5 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 5 7510 7436 936 Blue 18
2 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
3 AM Tue 38 38 N 6 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
4 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
6 AM Tue 35 35 N 6 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
7 AM Tue 35 35 N 6 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 40 40 N 6 7510 7436 936 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 44 45 N 7 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 49 51 N 7 8713 7840 1340 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 54 56 N 7 10346 9374 2874 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 56 58 NW 8 10988 10039 3539 Blue 36
2 PM Tue 57 59 NW 8 11440 10310 3810 Blue 37
3 PM Tue 56 57 N 8 10562 9725 3225 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 9423 8558 2058 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 9 8573 7737 1237 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 10 8433 7699 1199 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 48 48 N 12 7850 7660 1160 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 47 47 N 12 7740 7622 1122 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 45 45 N 12 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 10 7587 7508 1008 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 10 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 10 7510 7436 936 Blue 18
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 10 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 10 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 10 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 10 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
5 AM Wed 36 36 N 10 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 35 35 N 10 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
7 AM Wed 34 34 N 10 7366 7298 798 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 35 35 N 10 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 37 37 N 10 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 41 42 NE 10 7558 7484 984 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 45 47 NE 10 7740 7622 1122 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 48 50 NE 10 8573 7737 1237 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 51 53 NE 12 9423 8558 2058 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 52 54 NE 12 9773 8697 2197 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 51 52 NE 12 9064 8419 1919 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 49 49 NE 13 8433 7699 1199 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 47 47 NE 13 7740 7622 1122 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 13 7702 7584 1084 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 45 45 N 13 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 44 44 N 13 7625 7533 1033 Blue 22
9 PM Wed 43 43 N 13 7587 7508 1008 Blue 21
10 PM Wed 41 41 N 12 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 40 40 N 12 7510 7436 936 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 N 12 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
1 AM Thu 38 38 N 10 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
2 AM Thu 37 37 N 10 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
3 AM Thu 36 36 N 10 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 12 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 35 35 N 12 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
6 AM Thu 34 34 N 12 7366 7298 798 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 34 34 N 10 7366 7298 798 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 35 35 N 10 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 37 37 NE 10 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 10 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 44 46 NE 10 7702 7584 1084 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 47 49 NE 10 8433 7699 1199 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 10 9064 8419 1919 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 51 53 NE 10 9423 8558 2058 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 51 52 NE 9 9064 8419 1919 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 50 50 NE 8 8573 7737 1237 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 48 48 NE 8 7850 7660 1160 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 47 47 NE 9 7740 7622 1122 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 45 45 NE 10 7663 7557 1057 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 44 44 NE 12 7625 7533 1033 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 42 42 NE 10 7558 7484 984 Blue 20
10 PM Thu 41 41 NE 9 7534 7460 960 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 8 7486 7412 912 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NE 8 7462 7388 888 Blue 16
1 AM Fri 37 37 N 8 7438 7364 864 Blue 15
2 AM Fri 36 36 N 8 7414 7340 840 Blue 14
3 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 7390 7316 816 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 7390 7316 816 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com