Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 7349 7321 821 Blue 14
7 AM Tue 61 62 N 3 7376 7348 848 Blue 17
8 AM Tue 66 68 N 3 7457 7403 903 Blue 23
9 AM Tue 71 75 NE 3 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
10 AM Tue 76 82 NE 2 11595 10949 4449 Blue 36
11 AM Tue 80 88 SW 2 12597 11980 5480 Blue 42
12 Noon Tue 83 92 SW 5 13406 12741 6241 Blue 46
1 PM Tue 85 94 SW 6 14574 13120 6620 Blue 48
2 PM Tue 86 94 SW 7 14574 13120 6620 Blue 48
3 PM Tue 86 92 SW 7 13406 12741 6241 Blue 46
4 PM Tue 86 90 SW 8 12978 12361 5861 Blue 44
5 PM Tue 86 88 SW 8 12597 11980 5480 Blue 42
6 PM Tue 85 85 SW 7 12021 11571 5071 Blue 39
7 PM Tue 83 83 SW 10 11712 11224 4724 Blue 37
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 10 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
9 PM Tue 78 78 SW 10 10720 9569 3069 Blue 33
10 PM Tue 76 76 SW 9 9795 9175 2675 Blue 31
11 PM Tue 75 75 SW 8 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 6 9398 7758 1258 Blue 29
1 AM Wed 72 72 NW 5 8400 7488 988 Blue 27
2 AM Wed 70 70 N 5 7523 7422 922 Blue 25
3 AM Wed 68 68 N 6 7457 7403 903 Blue 23
4 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 7413 7385 885 Blue 21
5 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 7413 7385 885 Blue 21
6 AM Wed 64 64 N 6 7395 7367 867 Blue 19
7 AM Wed 66 67 N 6 7424 7394 894 Blue 22
8 AM Wed 72 74 N 6 9398 7758 1258 Blue 29
9 AM Wed 77 81 N 6 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
10 AM Wed 82 88 N 6 12597 11980 5480 Blue 42
11 AM Wed 87 95 N 5 15125 13308 6808 Blue 49
12 Noon Wed 90 99 NW 5 17158 15479 8979 Blue 53
1 PM Wed 92 101 NW 6 18648 16487 9987 Blue 55
2 PM Wed 93 101 NW 6 18648 16487 9987 Blue 55
3 PM Wed 93 99 NW 7 17158 15479 8979 Blue 53
4 PM Wed 93 97 NW 8 16172 14404 7904 Blue 51
5 PM Wed 93 95 NW 9 15125 13308 6808 Blue 49
6 PM Wed 92 92 W 9 13406 12741 6241 Blue 46
7 PM Wed 90 90 W 8 12978 12361 5861 Blue 44
8 PM Wed 86 86 W 8 12214 11687 5187 Blue 40
9 PM Wed 83 83 W 7 11712 11224 4724 Blue 37
10 PM Wed 81 81 SW 6 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
11 PM Wed 79 79 W 5 10999 9766 3266 Blue 34
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 NW 6 10999 9766 3266 Blue 34
1 AM Thu 75 75 N 6 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
2 AM Thu 73 73 N 5 9199 7521 1021 Blue 28
3 AM Thu 71 71 N 5 7779 7455 955 Blue 26
4 AM Thu 69 69 N 5 7490 7412 912 Blue 24
5 AM Thu 68 68 NE 5 7457 7403 903 Blue 23
6 AM Thu 66 66 NE 5 7413 7385 885 Blue 21
7 AM Thu 68 69 NE 5 7490 7412 912 Blue 24
8 AM Thu 73 75 NE 3 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
9 AM Thu 79 83 E 2 11712 11224 4724 Blue 37
10 AM Thu 84 90 SE 2 12978 12361 5861 Blue 44
11 AM Thu 88 96 S 2 15657 13837 7337 Blue 50
12 Noon Thu 91 100 SW 5 17631 15990 9490 Blue 54
1 PM Thu 93 102 SW 6 19777 16969 10469 Blue 56
2 PM Thu 94 102 SW 7 19777 16969 10469 Blue 56
3 PM Thu 94 100 SW 8 17631 15990 9490 Blue 54
4 PM Thu 94 98 SW 12 16672 14951 8451 Blue 52
5 PM Thu 94 96 SW 9 15657 13837 7337 Blue 50
6 PM Thu 93 93 SW 9 14002 12931 6431 Blue 47
7 PM Thu 91 91 W 8 13168 12551 6051 Blue 45
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 9 12597 11980 5480 Blue 42
9 PM Thu 85 85 W 7 12021 11571 5071 Blue 39
10 PM Thu 83 83 W 7 11712 11224 4724 Blue 37
11 PM Thu 81 81 W 6 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 NW 7 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
1 AM Fri 78 78 NW 7 10720 9569 3069 Blue 33
2 AM Fri 75 75 NW 6 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
3 AM Fri 73 73 N 6 9199 7521 1021 Blue 28
4 AM Fri 71 71 N 6 7779 7455 955 Blue 26
5 AM Fri 71 71 N 6 7779 7455 955 Blue 26
6 AM Fri 69 69 N 6 7490 7412 912 Blue 24
7 AM Fri 71 72 N 5 8400 7488 988 Blue 27
8 AM Fri 76 78 NW 5 10720 9569 3069 Blue 33
9 AM Fri 80 84 NW 3 11829 11455 4955 Blue 38
10 AM Fri 85 91 W 5 13168 12551 6051 Blue 45
11 AM Fri 89 97 SW 6 16172 14404 7904 Blue 51
12 Noon Fri 91 100 SW 8 17631 15990 9490 Blue 54
1 PM Fri 93 102 SW 9 19777 16969 10469 Blue 56
2 PM Fri 94 102 SW 12 19777 16969 10469 Blue 56
3 PM Fri 94 100 SW 13 17631 15990 9490 Blue 54
4 PM Fri 94 98 SW 15 16672 14951 8451 Blue 52
5 PM Fri 94 96 SW 14 15657 13837 7337 Blue 50
6 PM Fri 93 93 SW 14 14002 12931 6431 Blue 47
7 PM Fri 91 91 W 14 13168 12551 6051 Blue 45
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 13 12597 11980 5480 Blue 42
9 PM Fri 84 84 W 12 11829 11455 4955 Blue 38
10 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 11595 10949 4449 Blue 36
11 PM Fri 81 81 W 8 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 W 8 11277 10393 3893 Blue 34
1 AM Sat 77 77 W 7 10440 9372 2872 Blue 32
2 AM Sat 75 75 NW 7 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
3 AM Sat 72 72 NW 6 8400 7488 988 Blue 27
4 AM Sat 70 70 NW 6 7523 7422 922 Blue 25
5 AM Sat 70 70 NW 5 7523 7422 922 Blue 25
6 AM Sat 68 68 NW 6 7457 7403 903 Blue 23
7 AM Sat 70 71 W 6 7779 7455 955 Blue 26
8 AM Sat 73 75 W 5 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
9 AM Sat 77 81 SW 6 11478 10672 4172 Blue 35
10 AM Sat 81 87 SW 7 12405 11804 5304 Blue 41
11 AM Sat 84 92 SW 8 13406 12741 6241 Blue 46
12 Noon Sat 86 95 SW 9 15125 13308 6808 Blue 49
1 PM Sat 87 96 SW 10 15657 13837 7337 Blue 50
2 PM Sat 88 96 SW 12 15657 13837 7337 Blue 50
3 PM Sat 88 94 SW 13 14574 13120 6620 Blue 48
4 PM Sat 88 92 SW 14 13406 12741 6241 Blue 46
5 PM Sat 88 90 SW 14 12978 12361 5861 Blue 44
6 PM Sat 87 87 SW 13 12405 11804 5304 Blue 41
7 PM Sat 85 85 SW 12 12021 11571 5071 Blue 39
8 PM Sat 82 82 SW 10 11595 10949 4449 Blue 36
9 PM Sat 80 80 SW 9 11277 10393 3893 Blue 34
10 PM Sat 78 78 SW 9 10720 9569 3069 Blue 33
11 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 9795 9175 2675 Blue 31
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 SW 9 9795 9175 2675 Blue 31
1 AM Sun 73 73 SW 8 9199 7521 1021 Blue 28
2 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 7779 7455 955 Blue 26
3 AM Sun 69 69 SW 8 7490 7412 912 Blue 24
4 AM Sun 67 67 S 8 7424 7394 894 Blue 22
5 AM Sun 67 67 S 8 7424 7394 894 Blue 22
6 AM Sun 65 65 S 8 7404 7376 876 Blue 20
7 AM Sun 67 68 S 8 7457 7403 903 Blue 23
8 AM Sun 70 72 S 8 8400 7488 988 Blue 27
9 AM Sun 74 78 S 9 10720 9569 3069 Blue 33
10 AM Sun 78 84 S 9 11829 11455 4955 Blue 38
11 AM Sun 81 89 SW 9 12788 12171 5671 Blue 43
12 Noon Sun 83 92 SW 9 13406 12741 6241 Blue 46
1 PM Sun 84 93 SW 10 14002 12931 6431 Blue 47
2 PM Sun 85 93 SW 10 14002 12931 6431 Blue 47
3 PM Sun 85 91 SW 10 13168 12551 6051 Blue 45
4 PM Sun 85 89 SW 12 12788 12171 5671 Blue 43
5 PM Sun 85 87 SW 12 12405 11804 5304 Blue 41
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 12 11829 11455 4955 Blue 38
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 10 11712 11224 4724 Blue 37
8 PM Sun 80 80 W 9 11277 10393 3893 Blue 34
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 10720 9569 3069 Blue 33
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 8 9795 9175 2675 Blue 31
11 PM Sun 75 75 W 7 9597 8307 1807 Blue 30
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 W 6 9398 7758 1258 Blue 29
1 AM Mon 72 72 W 6 8400 7488 988 Blue 27
2 AM Mon 70 70 NW 5 7523 7422 922 Blue 25
3 AM Mon 68 68 NW 5 7457 7403 903 Blue 23
4 AM Mon 67 67 NW 6 7424 7394 894 Blue 22
5 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 7413 7385 885 Blue 21

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com