Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 36 36 SW 15 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 SW 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 SW 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 W 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 36 37 W 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 38 40 W 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 40 42 W 7 5389 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 41 43 SW 8 5609 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 42 44 SW 9 5830 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 42 43 SW 10 5609 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 SW 12 5389 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 SW 12 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 SW 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 SW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 SW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 SW 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 SW 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 SW 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 29 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 30 30 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 31 31 S 10 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 33 33 S 10 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 35 35 S 12 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 36 36 SW 12 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 36 36 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 35 35 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 SW 12 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 S 10 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 26 26 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 27 27 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 28 28 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 29 30 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 31 32 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 32 32 S 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 33 33 SW 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 SW 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 SW 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 SW 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 W 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 W 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 NW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 29 29 NW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 28 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 26 26 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 NW 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 W 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 24 24 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 27 28 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 29 31 S 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 31 34 S 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 33 36 SW 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 35 37 SW 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 35 36 SW 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 35 35 SW 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 34 34 SW 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 33 33 SW 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 31 31 SW 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 27 27 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 25 25 S 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 24 24 SE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 SE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 23 23 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 SE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 24 24 SE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 26 26 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 27 28 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 30 32 S 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 33 35 S 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 35 37 S 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 37 39 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 37 38 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 36 36 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 S 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 27 S 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 27 S 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 28 S 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 30 S 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 32 32 S 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 34 35 S 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 36 37 S 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 37 37 S 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 37 37 S 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 36 36 S 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 S 14 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 S 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 SW 13 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 SW 12 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 SW 12 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 SW 10 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 SW 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 SW 9 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 SW 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 SW 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 SW 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 SW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com