Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 42 42 SW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 W 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 W 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 W 6 6471 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 S 6 6913 6913 413 White 0
12 Noon Thu 45 46 W 6 7133 7133 633 White 0
1 PM Thu 46 47 NE 6 7353 7208 708 White 3
2 PM Thu 47 48 N 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
3 PM Thu 47 47 N 5 7353 7208 708 White 3
4 PM Thu 47 47 NW 5 7353 7208 708 White 3
5 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 7133 7133 633 White 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 N 5 6913 6913 413 White 0
7 PM Thu 45 45 N 5 6913 6913 413 White 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 NE 5 6692 6692 192 White 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 NE 5 6471 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 43 NE 6 6471 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 47 48 N 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
12 Noon Fri 50 51 N 6 8230 8230 1730 White 7
1 PM Fri 52 52 NE 6 8449 8449 1949 White 8
2 PM Fri 53 53 E 7 8667 8667 2167 White 9
3 PM Fri 53 53 NE 6 8667 8667 2167 White 9
4 PM Fri 52 52 NE 6 8449 8449 1949 White 8
5 PM Fri 51 51 SE 6 8230 8230 1730 White 7
6 PM Fri 50 50 NE 5 8011 8011 1511 White 6
7 PM Fri 49 49 NE 5 7792 7792 1292 White 5
8 PM Fri 48 48 E 5 7573 7573 1073 White 4
9 PM Fri 47 47 NE 5 7353 7208 708 White 3
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 5 6913 6913 413 White 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 5 6913 6913 413 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 5 6692 6692 192 White 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 6692 6692 192 White 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 NE 5 6471 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 6471 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 6471 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 SE 5 6471 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 7133 7133 633 White 0
11 AM Sat 49 50 S 6 8011 8011 1511 White 6
12 Noon Sat 51 52 S 6 8449 8449 1949 White 8
1 PM Sat 53 54 S 6 8884 8884 2384 White 10
2 PM Sat 54 54 S 7 8884 8884 2384 White 10
3 PM Sat 53 53 S 6 8667 8667 2167 White 9
4 PM Sat 51 51 S 7 8230 8230 1730 White 7
5 PM Sat 49 49 S 7 7792 7792 1292 White 5
6 PM Sat 48 48 S 7 7573 7573 1073 White 4
7 PM Sat 49 49 S 7 7792 7792 1292 White 5
8 PM Sat 49 49 S 6 7792 7792 1292 White 5
9 PM Sat 49 49 S 6 7792 7792 1292 White 5
10 PM Sat 48 48 S 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
11 PM Sat 48 48 S 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 S 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
1 AM Sun 48 48 S 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
2 AM Sun 48 48 S 7 7573 7573 1073 White 4
3 AM Sun 48 48 S 6 7573 7573 1073 White 4
4 AM Sun 47 47 S 6 7353 7208 708 White 3
5 AM Sun 47 47 S 7 7353 7208 708 White 3
6 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 7133 7133 633 White 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 S 6 6913 6913 413 White 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 6692 6692 192 White 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 6692 6692 192 White 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 S 8 6692 6692 192 White 0
11 AM Sun 45 45 S 9 6913 6913 413 White 0
12 Noon Sun 47 47 S 9 7353 7208 708 White 3
1 PM Sun 48 48 S 9 7573 7573 1073 White 4
2 PM Sun 49 49 S 12 7792 7792 1292 White 5
3 PM Sun 48 48 S 10 7573 7573 1073 White 4
4 PM Sun 47 47 S 12 7353 7208 708 White 3
5 PM Sun 46 46 S 12 7133 7133 633 White 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 S 12 6913 6913 413 White 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 SW 10 6913 6913 413 White 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 6692 6692 192 White 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 8 6471 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 8 6471 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 W 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 N 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 44 N 7 6692 6692 192 White 0
12 Noon Mon 45 46 N 7 7133 7133 633 White 0
1 PM Mon 47 48 N 8 7573 7573 1073 White 4
2 PM Mon 48 49 N 8 7792 7792 1292 White 5
3 PM Mon 47 47 N 9 7353 7208 708 White 3
4 PM Mon 46 46 N 9 7133 7133 633 White 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 N 9 6692 6692 192 White 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 N 9 6471 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 40 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 44 N 8 6692 6692 192 White 0
12 Noon Tue 46 48 N 8 7573 7573 1073 White 4
1 PM Tue 49 51 N 8 8230 8230 1730 White 7
2 PM Tue 50 51 N 8 8230 8230 1730 White 7
3 PM Tue 49 50 N 8 8011 8011 1511 White 6
4 PM Tue 48 48 N 8 7573 7573 1073 White 4
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 8 7133 7133 633 White 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 8 6692 6692 192 White 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 N 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com