Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 51 51 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 S 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 S 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 SW 9 9030 7149 649 White 2
11 AM Fri 62 63 SW 10 9684 8902 2402 White 5
12 Noon Fri 64 65 SW 12 10119 9670 3170 White 7
1 PM Fri 65 66 SW 13 10344 9940 3440 White 8
2 PM Fri 64 65 SW 14 10119 9670 3170 White 7
3 PM Fri 63 63 SW 14 9684 8902 2402 White 5
4 PM Fri 62 62 SW 15 9467 7360 860 White 4
5 PM Fri 60 60 SW 13 9030 7149 649 White 2
6 PM Fri 58 58 SW 12 7189 7149 649 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NE 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 NE 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 58 NE 8 7189 7149 649 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 61 NE 7 9249 7179 679 White 3
1 PM Sat 60 63 NE 6 9684 8902 2402 White 5
2 PM Sat 61 63 NE 6 9684 8902 2402 White 5
3 PM Sat 61 62 NE 6 9467 7360 860 White 4
4 PM Sat 60 60 NE 7 9030 7149 649 White 2
5 PM Sat 58 58 NE 7 7189 7149 649 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 55 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 60 E 3 9030 7149 649 White 2
12 Noon Sun 61 64 E 2 9902 9398 2898 White 6
1 PM Sun 63 66 SE 2 10344 9940 3440 White 8
2 PM Sun 64 66 S 2 10344 9940 3440 White 8
3 PM Sun 63 64 SW 2 9902 9398 2898 White 6
4 PM Sun 62 62 SW 2 9467 7360 860 White 4
5 PM Sun 60 60 W 2 9030 7149 649 White 2
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 2 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 2 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NE 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 60 SE 3 9030 7149 649 White 2
12 Noon Mon 62 64 SW 5 9902 9398 2898 White 6
1 PM Mon 64 65 SW 3 10119 9670 3170 White 7
2 PM Mon 65 66 SW 5 10344 9940 3440 White 8
3 PM Mon 64 64 SW 5 9902 9398 2898 White 6
4 PM Mon 63 63 SW 6 9684 8902 2402 White 5
5 PM Mon 61 61 SW 6 9249 7179 679 White 3
6 PM Mon 58 58 SW 5 7189 7149 649 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 E 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 N 2 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 NW 3 7189 7149 649 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 W 3 9684 8902 2402 White 5
12 Noon Tue 64 66 W 3 10344 9940 3440 White 8
1 PM Tue 66 68 W 3 10776 10406 3906 White 10
2 PM Tue 67 69 NW 3 10992 10619 4119 White 11
3 PM Tue 67 68 NW 3 10776 10406 3906 White 10
4 PM Tue 65 65 N 2 10119 9670 3170 White 7
5 PM Tue 63 63 NW 2 9684 8902 2402 White 5
6 PM Tue 59 59 N 2 7372 7149 649 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 NE 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NE 5 9249 7179 679 White 3
11 AM Wed 65 67 E 5 10560 10195 3695 White 9
12 Noon Wed 68 71 E 5 11420 11420 4920 White 13
1 PM Wed 70 73 NE 5 11846 11846 5346 White 15
2 PM Wed 71 73 NE 5 11846 11846 5346 White 15
3 PM Wed 70 71 NE 6 11420 11420 4920 White 13
4 PM Wed 69 69 NE 6 10992 10619 4119 White 11
5 PM Wed 67 67 NE 6 10560 10195 3695 White 9
6 PM Wed 64 64 NE 6 9902 9398 2898 White 6
7 PM Wed 60 60 NE 6 9030 7149 649 White 2
8 PM Wed 57 57 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 NE 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com