Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 6 7279 7242 742 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 6 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 44 44 NE 5 7397 7303 803 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 49 50 N 5 7679 7507 1007 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 54 56 N 5 8339 7980 1480 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 57 60 N 3 8662 8395 1895 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 58 60 N 3 8662 8395 1895 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 59 61 N 2 8883 8457 1957 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 60 61 W 2 8883 8457 1957 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 60 60 S 3 8662 8395 1895 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 58 58 S 3 8464 8270 1770 Blue 29
6 PM Thu 55 55 S 3 8277 7855 1355 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 52 52 S 3 7863 7581 1081 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 48 48 S 3 7547 7432 932 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 46 46 S 3 7472 7357 857 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 45 45 S 3 7434 7320 820 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 44 44 S 3 7397 7303 803 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 S 5 7360 7291 791 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 7360 7291 791 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 42 42 S 5 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 42 42 S 5 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 42 42 SE 5 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
5 AM Fri 41 41 SE 5 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
6 AM Fri 40 40 SE 6 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 41 41 S 8 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 7397 7303 803 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 49 50 S 9 7679 7507 1007 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 53 55 S 12 8277 7855 1355 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 56 58 S 13 8464 8270 1770 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 57 59 S 14 8526 8333 1833 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 58 59 S 16 8526 8333 1833 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 58 59 S 16 8526 8333 1833 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 56 56 S 15 8339 7980 1480 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 53 53 S 15 8001 7672 1172 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 52 52 S 14 7863 7581 1081 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 51 51 S 13 7771 7544 1044 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 50 50 S 13 7679 7507 1007 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 49 49 S 13 7587 7469 969 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 48 48 S 14 7547 7432 932 Blue 19
11 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 7509 7394 894 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 S 16 7509 7394 894 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 46 46 S 17 7472 7357 857 Blue 17
2 AM Sat 46 46 S 17 7472 7357 857 Blue 17
3 AM Sat 45 45 S 17 7434 7320 820 Blue 16
4 AM Sat 44 44 S 18 7397 7303 803 Blue 15
5 AM Sat 43 43 S 18 7360 7291 791 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 42 42 S 17 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 41 41 S 17 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 40 40 S 17 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 38 38 S 16 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 37 37 S 16 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 37 37 S 17 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 37 37 S 18 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 38 38 S 21 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 39 39 SW 22 7279 7242 742 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 38 38 SW 21 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 38 38 SW 18 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 37 37 SW 17 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 36 36 SW 16 7243 7205 705 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 35 35 W 14 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 35 35 W 13 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 34 34 W 12 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 33 33 W 10 7206 7168 668 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 32 32 W 10 7194 7156 656 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 W 9 7181 7149 649 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 7169 7149 649 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 29 29 NW 10 7157 7149 649 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 29 29 NW 10 7157 7149 649 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 28 28 NW 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 NW 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 NW 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 NW 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 NW 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 7169 7149 649 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 34 35 NW 8 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 37 39 NW 9 7279 7242 742 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 40 43 NW 9 7360 7291 791 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 42 45 NW 9 7434 7320 820 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 43 45 NW 9 7434 7320 820 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 43 44 NW 10 7397 7303 803 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 43 43 NW 10 7360 7291 791 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 42 42 NW 10 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 40 40 NW 10 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 38 38 N 9 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 36 36 N 8 7243 7205 705 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 34 34 N 7 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 33 33 N 6 7206 7168 668 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 33 33 N 6 7206 7168 668 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 N 5 7194 7156 656 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 32 32 NE 5 7194 7156 656 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 7181 7149 649 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 30 30 NE 6 7169 7149 649 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 30 30 NE 6 7169 7149 649 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 29 29 NE 7 7157 7149 649 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 7157 7149 649 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 29 29 NE 5 7157 7149 649 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 31 31 NE 5 7181 7149 649 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 35 35 NE 3 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 39 40 NE 2 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 44 46 NE 2 7472 7357 857 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 47 49 N 1 7587 7469 969 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 48 50 NW 2 7679 7507 1007 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 49 51 NW 2 7771 7544 1044 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 50 51 NW 3 7771 7544 1044 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 7679 7507 1007 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 48 48 NW 5 7547 7432 932 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 45 45 NW 5 7434 7320 820 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 5 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 39 39 N 5 7279 7242 742 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 37 37 N 5 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 37 37 N 5 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 37 37 N 6 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 N 6 7243 7205 705 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 35 35 N 7 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 35 35 N 7 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 8 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 34 34 N 8 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 9 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 9 7206 7168 668 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 9 7206 7168 668 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 7230 7193 693 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 38 38 N 8 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 43 44 NE 8 7397 7303 803 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 47 49 NE 9 7587 7469 969 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 51 53 NE 9 8001 7672 1172 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 53 55 NE 9 8277 7855 1355 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 54 56 NE 9 8339 7980 1480 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 54 55 NE 9 8277 7855 1355 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 53 53 NE 10 8001 7672 1172 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 52 52 NE 10 7863 7581 1081 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 49 49 NE 9 7587 7469 969 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 45 45 NE 9 7434 7320 820 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 42 42 NE 8 7322 7278 778 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 40 40 NE 8 7292 7254 754 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 39 39 NE 8 7279 7242 742 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 39 39 NE 9 7279 7242 742 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 9 7267 7229 729 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 8 7255 7217 717 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 36 36 NE 8 7243 7205 705 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 7230 7193 693 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com