Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 30 30 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 N 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 N 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 46 47 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 50 51 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 52 53 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 53 54 SE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 S 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 50 51 NE 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 54 55 NE 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 56 57 NE 2 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 NE 2 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 57 58 E 2 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 56 56 E 1 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 SE 1 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 E 2 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 53 54 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 57 59 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 59 61 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 60 61 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 60 60 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 58 58 S 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 S 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 NE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 E 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 SE 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 51 52 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 53 54 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 53 53 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 52 52 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 S 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 S 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 SW 1 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 W 0 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 1 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NW 2 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 3 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 5 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 51 53 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 52 53 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 52 53 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 8 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 53 55 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 55 57 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 57 59 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 57 58 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 N 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 NE 7 5384 6500 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 5384 6500 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com