Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 3 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 2 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
8 AM Thu 63 65 NE 2 7423 7375 875 Blue 24
9 AM Thu 67 70 NE 2 7757 7459 959 Blue 29
10 AM Thu 70 75 E 2 11966 8134 1634 Blue 34
11 AM Thu 74 80 SE 3 17191 13996 7496 Blue 39
12 Noon Thu 77 84 S 3 18608 17820 11320 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 80 86 S 6 20421 18277 11777 Blue 45
2 PM Thu 82 87 SW 7 21834 18504 12004 Blue 46
3 PM Thu 82 86 W 8 20421 18277 11777 Blue 45
4 PM Thu 82 84 W 9 18608 17820 11320 Blue 43
5 PM Thu 82 83 W 9 18380 17013 10513 Blue 42
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 9 17920 14483 7983 Blue 40
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 9 15089 13047 6547 Blue 38
8 PM Thu 75 75 SW 9 11966 8134 1634 Blue 34
9 PM Thu 73 73 SW 8 8603 7742 1242 Blue 32
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 8152 7545 1045 Blue 31
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 6 7559 7440 940 Blue 28
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NE 5 7460 7404 904 Blue 26
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 3 7423 7375 875 Blue 24
2 AM Fri 63 63 NE 5 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
3 AM Fri 61 61 NE 5 7365 7333 833 Blue 20
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 7344 7312 812 Blue 18
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 2 7344 7312 812 Blue 18
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 2 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
7 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
8 AM Fri 62 63 SE 8 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
9 AM Fri 65 67 SE 12 7460 7404 904 Blue 26
10 AM Fri 67 70 SE 13 7757 7459 959 Blue 29
11 AM Fri 71 74 S 13 10095 7938 1438 Blue 33
12 Noon Fri 73 77 S 13 14154 9896 3396 Blue 36
1 PM Fri 75 79 S 13 15089 13047 6547 Blue 38
2 PM Fri 76 80 S 13 17191 13996 7496 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 77 80 S 13 17191 13996 7496 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 77 79 S 14 15089 13047 6547 Blue 38
5 PM Fri 77 77 S 15 14154 9896 3396 Blue 36
6 PM Fri 76 76 SW 15 13377 8423 1923 Blue 35
7 PM Fri 74 74 SW 14 10095 7938 1438 Blue 33
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 12 7955 7477 977 Blue 30
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 9 7559 7440 940 Blue 28
10 PM Fri 69 69 SW 6 7559 7440 940 Blue 28
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 3 7442 7385 885 Blue 25
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 2 7423 7375 875 Blue 24
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 2 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
2 AM Sat 61 61 S 2 7365 7333 833 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 60 60 S 3 7355 7323 823 Blue 19
4 AM Sat 58 58 S 5 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
5 AM Sat 58 58 SE 7 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
6 AM Sat 57 57 SE 8 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
7 AM Sat 56 56 SE 9 7313 7281 781 Blue 15
8 AM Sat 61 62 SE 10 7376 7344 844 Blue 21
9 AM Sat 64 67 S 13 7460 7404 904 Blue 26
10 AM Sat 66 71 S 14 7955 7477 977 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 69 75 S 15 11966 8134 1634 Blue 34
12 Noon Sat 72 78 S 16 14627 11615 5115 Blue 37
1 PM Sat 74 80 S 18 17191 13996 7496 Blue 39
2 PM Sat 75 80 S 20 17191 13996 7496 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 76 80 S 21 17191 13996 7496 Blue 39
4 PM Sat 75 77 S 22 14154 9896 3396 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 75 76 SW 22 13377 8423 1923 Blue 35
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 22 11966 8134 1634 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 22 8152 7545 1045 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 21 7559 7440 940 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 20 7460 7404 904 Blue 26
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 18 7442 7385 885 Blue 25
11 PM Sat 64 64 SW 17 7405 7365 865 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 16 7376 7344 844 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 60 60 S 16 7355 7323 823 Blue 19
2 AM Sun 58 58 S 15 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 57 57 S 15 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 15 7303 7271 771 Blue 14
5 AM Sun 54 54 S 15 7292 7260 760 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 53 53 S 15 7282 7250 750 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 15 7282 7250 750 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 57 59 S 16 7344 7312 812 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 60 63 S 16 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 62 67 S 17 7460 7404 904 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 65 72 S 17 8152 7545 1045 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 67 75 S 17 11966 8134 1634 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 69 76 S 18 13377 8423 1923 Blue 35
2 PM Sun 70 76 S 18 13377 8423 1923 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 71 76 S 18 13377 8423 1923 Blue 35
4 PM Sun 71 74 SW 18 10095 7938 1438 Blue 33
5 PM Sun 70 71 SW 18 7955 7477 977 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 20 7757 7459 959 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 18 7478 7422 922 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 17 7423 7375 875 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 16 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 15 7376 7344 844 Blue 21
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 14 7355 7323 823 Blue 19
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SW 13 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
1 AM Mon 57 57 SW 13 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 13 7303 7271 771 Blue 14
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 13 7292 7260 760 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 7271 7240 740 Blue 11
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 7271 7240 740 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 51 51 S 12 7261 7229 729 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 51 51 S 13 7261 7229 729 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 53 54 S 14 7292 7260 760 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 56 59 S 15 7344 7312 812 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 59 63 S 16 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 61 66 S 17 7442 7385 885 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 63 69 S 18 7559 7440 940 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 65 70 S 20 7757 7459 959 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 66 70 S 21 7757 7459 959 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 67 70 SW 21 7757 7459 959 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 67 69 SW 22 7559 7440 940 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 66 67 SW 22 7460 7404 904 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 65 65 SW 22 7423 7375 875 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 21 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 20 7365 7333 833 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 59 59 SW 18 7344 7312 812 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 58 58 SW 16 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 57 57 SW 15 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SW 14 7313 7281 781 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 14 7303 7271 771 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 53 53 S 13 7282 7250 750 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 51 51 S 13 7261 7229 729 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 50 50 S 14 7251 7219 719 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 14 7230 7201 701 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 14 7230 7201 701 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 14 7240 7210 710 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 51 52 S 14 7271 7240 740 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 53 55 S 15 7303 7271 771 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 55 58 S 15 7334 7302 802 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 57 61 S 15 7365 7333 833 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 59 63 S 15 7387 7354 854 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 60 64 S 15 7405 7365 865 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 61 64 S 15 7405 7365 865 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 61 64 S 15 7405 7365 865 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 61 62 SW 15 7376 7344 844 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 61 61 SW 15 7365 7333 833 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 60 60 SW 14 7355 7323 823 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 59 59 SW 13 7344 7312 812 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 57 57 SW 12 7324 7292 792 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 10 7303 7271 771 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 9 7282 7250 750 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 52 52 W 8 7271 7240 740 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 W 7 7261 7229 729 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 7 7261 7229 729 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 50 50 SW 7 7251 7219 719 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 7 7240 7210 710 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 7230 7201 701 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 47 47 S 8 7219 7193 693 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com