Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 S 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 38 38 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 37 37 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 37 37 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 37 37 ENE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 38 39 NE 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 41 44 ESE 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 44 48 S 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 47 52 WSW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 49 54 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 51 55 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 53 56 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 53 54 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 53 53 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 52 52 SW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 49 SSW 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 47 47 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 46 46 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 44 44 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 41 41 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 N 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 39 39 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 37 37 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 35 35 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 34 34 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 33 34 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 36 38 NE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 39 43 NE 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 43 47 ENE 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 44 48 NE 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 45 49 NE 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 46 49 NE 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 45 46 NE 24 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 44 44 NE 23 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 43 43 NE 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 40 40 NE 20 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 38 38 NE 17 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 36 36 NE 15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 36 36 SE 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 37 37 N 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 36 36 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 35 35 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 34 34 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 35 35 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 35 36 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 40 43 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 45 49 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 54 N 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 51 56 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 53 57 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 55 58 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 53 54 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 51 51 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 49 49 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 48 48 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 ENE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 47 47 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 46 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 45 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com