Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 WSW 6 10 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
1 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 5 9 7362 7334 834 Blue 19
2 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 9 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 9 7334 7303 803 Blue 16
4 AM Thu 62 62 WNW 4 6 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
5 AM Thu 61 61 NW 4 6 7314 7283 783 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 61 61 WNW 3 5 7314 7283 783 Blue 14
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 4 6 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 68 69 WNW 3 5 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
9 AM Thu 70 72 NNE 5 9 7595 7383 883 Blue 25
10 AM Thu 74 78 SSE 8 12 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
11 AM Thu 78 84 SW 10 16 12635 12140 5640 Blue 37
12 Noon Thu 83 89 SW 12 18 18027 14383 7883 Blue 42
1 PM Thu 84 90 SW 12 19 18630 16001 9501 Blue 43
2 PM Thu 84 89 WSW 14 21 18027 14383 7883 Blue 42
3 PM Thu 83 87 WSW 14 23 16472 12555 6055 Blue 40
4 PM Thu 83 85 SW 14 21 12990 12199 5699 Blue 38
5 PM Thu 81 81 SW 13 20 12152 11830 5330 Blue 34
6 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 19 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 10 14 8789 7482 982 Blue 27
8 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 9 13 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
9 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 9 13 7595 7383 883 Blue 25
10 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 6 10 7391 7369 869 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 10 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 5 9 7369 7344 844 Blue 20
1 AM Fri 66 66 NW 5 8 7362 7334 834 Blue 19
2 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 5 8 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
3 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 5 8 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
4 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 5 8 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 62 62 N 4 6 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
6 AM Fri 62 62 WSW 4 6 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 64 64 WSW 4 6 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 3 5 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
9 AM Fri 71 73 N 5 8 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
10 AM Fri 75 78 N 5 9 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
11 AM Fri 78 83 NNE 8 11 12275 12081 5581 Blue 36
12 Noon Fri 81 86 ENE 9 13 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 82 87 SSE 10 14 16472 12555 6055 Blue 40
2 PM Fri 83 87 S 10 16 16472 12555 6055 Blue 40
3 PM Fri 83 86 S 10 16 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 81 82 S 10 17 12212 11940 5440 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 80 80 S 10 16 12093 11776 5276 Blue 33
6 PM Fri 77 77 SSW 9 14 11787 8707 2207 Blue 30
7 PM Fri 75 75 SSW 9 12 9607 7589 1089 Blue 28
8 PM Fri 73 73 SSW 8 11 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
9 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 6 10 7595 7383 883 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 71 71 WNW 6 9 7488 7376 876 Blue 24
11 PM Fri 70 70 NNW 5 9 7391 7369 869 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 N 5 9 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
1 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 5 8 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
2 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 5 8 7362 7334 834 Blue 19
3 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 5 8 7354 7324 824 Blue 18
4 AM Sat 63 63 NE 4 6 7334 7303 803 Blue 16
5 AM Sat 63 63 NE 4 6 7334 7303 803 Blue 16
6 AM Sat 64 64 NE 3 5 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
7 AM Sat 66 66 ENE 3 5 7362 7334 834 Blue 19
8 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 3 5 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
9 AM Sat 71 73 E 4 6 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
10 AM Sat 74 77 SSE 5 9 11787 8707 2207 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 77 81 S 8 12 12152 11830 5330 Blue 34
12 Noon Sat 79 84 S 10 16 12635 12140 5640 Blue 37
1 PM Sat 81 86 SSW 12 20 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
2 PM Sat 82 86 SSW 14 23 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 81 84 SSW 16 24 12635 12140 5640 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 80 82 SSW 16 23 12212 11940 5440 Blue 35
5 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 14 21 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
6 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 13 19 9607 7589 1089 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 74 74 SSW 11 17 8789 7482 982 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 10 14 7595 7383 883 Blue 25
9 PM Sat 71 71 SSW 9 12 7488 7376 876 Blue 24
10 PM Sat 70 70 S 8 11 7391 7369 869 Blue 23
11 PM Sat 69 69 S 6 10 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 SSE 6 9 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 67 67 E 5 9 7369 7344 844 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 5 8 7354 7324 824 Blue 18
3 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 5 8 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
4 AM Sun 62 62 ENE 4 6 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 62 62 ENE 4 6 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
6 AM Sun 63 63 E 4 6 7334 7303 803 Blue 16
7 AM Sun 65 65 SE 4 6 7354 7324 824 Blue 18
8 AM Sun 68 69 SSE 5 8 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
9 AM Sun 71 73 SSE 8 10 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 74 78 S 10 14 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 77 82 SSW 12 18 12212 11940 5440 Blue 35
12 Noon Sun 79 85 SSW 14 21 12990 12199 5699 Blue 38
1 PM Sun 80 86 SSW 16 24 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
2 PM Sun 81 86 SSW 17 25 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 81 85 SSW 17 25 12990 12199 5699 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 79 81 SSW 17 25 12152 11830 5330 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 77 78 SSW 16 24 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
6 PM Sun 76 76 SSW 14 23 11717 7835 1335 Blue 29
7 PM Sun 73 73 SSW 13 21 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 12 19 7595 7383 883 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 70 70 SSW 11 17 7391 7369 869 Blue 23
10 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 10 16 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 10 14 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 SSW 10 14 7369 7344 844 Blue 20
1 AM Mon 65 65 S 10 14 7354 7324 824 Blue 18
2 AM Mon 64 64 S 10 14 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 9 14 7324 7293 793 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 60 60 S 9 13 7304 7273 773 Blue 13
5 AM Mon 59 59 S 8 12 7294 7263 763 Blue 12
6 AM Mon 59 59 S 8 12 7294 7263 763 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 61 61 S 8 12 7314 7283 783 Blue 14
8 AM Mon 64 65 S 9 13 7354 7324 824 Blue 18
9 AM Mon 67 69 SSW 11 16 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
10 AM Mon 71 75 SSW 12 19 9607 7589 1089 Blue 28
11 AM Mon 74 80 SSW 14 23 12093 11776 5276 Blue 33
12 Noon Mon 77 83 SSW 16 25 12275 12081 5581 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 79 85 SSW 17 26 12990 12199 5699 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 80 86 SSW 17 26 14944 12259 5759 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 80 84 SSW 17 26 12635 12140 5640 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 79 81 SW 18 26 12152 11830 5330 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 77 78 SW 17 25 11841 9511 3011 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 14 23 8789 7482 982 Blue 27
7 PM Mon 72 72 SW 12 19 7595 7383 883 Blue 25
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 10 16 7384 7362 862 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 9 13 7369 7344 844 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 8 11 7344 7314 814 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 11 7334 7303 803 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 NNW 8 12 7314 7283 783 Blue 14
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 12 7304 7273 773 Blue 13
2 AM Tue 58 58 NNE 9 13 7284 7253 753 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 9 13 7264 7229 729 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 8 12 7254 7217 717 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 8 11 7242 7205 705 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 8 11 7254 7217 717 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 8 11 7274 7242 742 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 60 61 NNE 8 11 7314 7283 783 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 64 66 NE 8 11 7362 7334 834 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 67 71 NE 9 12 7488 7376 876 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 70 76 ENE 9 13 11717 7835 1335 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 73 79 E 10 14 11975 11682 5182 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 76 82 S 11 16 12212 11940 5440 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 78 84 SSW 11 17 12635 12140 5640 Blue 37
3 PM Tue 78 82 SSW 11 17 12212 11940 5440 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 77 79 SSW 10 17 11975 11682 5182 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 75 76 SSW 10 16 11717 7835 1335 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 73 73 SSW 10 16 7899 7391 891 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 70 70 SSW 10 16 7391 7369 869 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 68 68 SSW 10 14 7376 7354 854 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 13 7354 7324 824 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 63 63 NNW 9 12 7334 7303 803 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com