Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 8 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 7 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 52 52 S 7 7212 7166 666 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 55 56 S 6 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 57 60 S 7 10600 8651 2151 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 59 63 SW 7 13052 10557 4057 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 62 67 SW 7 14762 13606 7106 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 65 69 SW 7 15602 14308 7808 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 66 70 W 7 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 67 69 W 7 15602 14308 7808 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 68 69 W 7 15602 14308 7808 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 67 67 SW 8 14762 13606 7106 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 8 14063 11980 5480 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 62 62 SW 8 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 60 60 SW 8 10600 8651 2151 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 59 59 S 7 10302 7794 1294 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 57 57 S 6 8742 7241 741 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 56 56 S 5 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SE 3 7242 7196 696 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 53 53 SE 2 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 52 52 E 3 7212 7166 666 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 E 3 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 55 58 SE 3 9546 7316 816 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 59 63 S 5 13052 10557 4057 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 63 67 S 6 14762 13606 7106 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 66 70 S 7 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 68 72 SW 8 17711 15451 8951 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 68 70 SW 9 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 67 68 SW 9 15163 13959 7459 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 66 66 SW 10 14415 12841 6341 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 13707 11022 4522 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 62 62 SW 10 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 59 59 SW 9 10302 7794 1294 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 58 58 SW 9 9546 7316 816 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 56 56 SW 7 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 54 54 S 5 7242 7196 696 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 S 3 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 52 52 SW 3 7212 7166 666 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 51 51 NW 3 7197 7151 651 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 50 50 N 3 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 5 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 N 6 7197 7151 651 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 54 56 N 7 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 58 62 N 7 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 61 65 N 8 14063 11980 5480 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 65 69 N 8 15602 14308 7808 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 67 70 NW 9 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 68 70 NW 9 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 68 69 NW 10 15602 14308 7808 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 14762 13606 7106 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 12 14063 11980 5480 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 12 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 59 59 N 10 10302 7794 1294 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 10 8742 7241 741 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 7328 7211 711 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 9 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 9 7212 7166 666 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 7197 7151 651 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 50 50 N 9 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 N 8 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 53 56 N 8 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 56 60 N 8 10600 8651 2151 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 61 65 N 8 14063 11980 5480 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 64 68 N 8 15163 13959 7459 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 67 71 N 8 17219 15016 8516 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 69 71 N 8 17219 15016 8516 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 69 70 N 8 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 68 68 N 8 15163 13959 7459 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 65 65 N 8 14063 11980 5480 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 63 63 N 8 13052 10557 4057 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 60 60 N 8 10600 8651 2151 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 8 8742 7241 741 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 8 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 55 55 N 7 7328 7211 711 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 7 7242 7196 696 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 7 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 8 7212 7166 666 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 9 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 9 7152 7149 649 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 9 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 52 53 N 8 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 56 59 N 8 10302 7794 1294 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 60 64 N 8 13707 11022 4522 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 65 70 N 8 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 69 73 N 8 19372 16096 9596 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 72 76 N 8 19932 18872 12372 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 73 75 N 8 19817 17316 10816 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 73 74 N 7 19560 17150 10650 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 72 72 NE 7 17711 15451 8951 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 70 70 NE 7 16726 14652 8152 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 67 67 NE 7 14762 13606 7106 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 64 64 N 7 13707 11022 4522 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 6 10600 8651 2151 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 58 58 N 5 9546 7316 816 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 5 8742 7241 741 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 7328 7211 711 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 7197 7151 651 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 7182 7149 649 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 7212 7166 666 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 55 56 N 6 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 59 62 N 7 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 63 67 N 8 14762 13606 7106 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 67 72 N 8 17711 15451 8951 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 70 74 N 9 19560 17150 10650 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 72 76 W 10 19932 18872 12372 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 73 75 SW 10 19817 17316 10816 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 73 74 SW 12 19560 17150 10650 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 17219 15016 8516 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 15602 14308 7808 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 14415 12841 6341 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 8 13707 11022 4522 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 12185 10221 3721 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 10600 8651 2151 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 5 10302 7794 1294 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 5 8742 7241 741 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 7868 7226 726 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 7328 7211 711 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 7227 7181 681 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 7 7197 7151 651 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 7 7182 7149 649 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com