Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 68 68 N 1 7330 7295 795 Blue 14
7 AM Sat 70 70 N 1 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
8 AM Sat 74 75 W 1 8218 7380 880 Blue 21
9 AM Sat 77 79 W 1 9670 8469 1969 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 80 84 W 2 12934 9846 3346 Blue 29
11 AM Sat 83 89 W 3 14824 13423 6923 Blue 34
12 Noon Sat 85 92 W 5 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
1 PM Sat 87 94 SW 5 17141 15383 8883 Blue 39
2 PM Sat 87 93 SW 6 16606 15158 8658 Blue 38
3 PM Sat 88 93 SW 7 16606 15158 8658 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 88 91 W 8 15459 13816 7316 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 87 88 W 9 13847 13125 6625 Blue 33
6 PM Sat 85 85 W 10 13189 10524 4024 Blue 30
7 PM Sat 82 82 W 10 10945 9618 3118 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 78 78 W 10 9273 8192 1692 Blue 23
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 9 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 7 8218 7380 880 Blue 21
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 6 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 NW 5 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
1 AM Sun 72 72 NW 3 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
2 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
4 AM Sun 69 69 N 2 7341 7306 806 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 68 68 NW 2 7330 7295 795 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 68 68 NW 2 7330 7295 795 Blue 14
7 AM Sun 70 70 NW 2 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
8 AM Sun 74 75 NW 2 8218 7380 880 Blue 21
9 AM Sun 78 81 NW 2 9860 9223 2723 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 81 86 NW 2 13566 12376 5876 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 84 90 W 3 15232 13703 7203 Blue 35
12 Noon Sun 86 93 W 5 16606 15158 8658 Blue 38
1 PM Sun 88 95 W 6 17505 15666 9166 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 88 94 W 8 17141 15383 8883 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 89 94 W 9 17141 15383 8883 Blue 39
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 10 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 88 89 W 12 14824 13423 6923 Blue 34
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 12 13566 12376 5876 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 12 12595 9751 3251 Blue 28
8 PM Sun 79 79 W 12 9670 8469 1969 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 10 8867 7914 1414 Blue 22
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 74 74 W 8 7937 7365 865 Blue 20
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 NW 6 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
1 AM Mon 73 73 NW 5 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 72 72 NW 5 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
3 AM Mon 71 71 NW 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 70 70 N 5 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
5 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 7341 7306 806 Blue 15
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 7341 7306 806 Blue 15
7 AM Mon 71 71 N 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
8 AM Mon 76 77 N 3 8867 7914 1414 Blue 22
9 AM Mon 80 83 N 3 12595 9751 3251 Blue 28
10 AM Mon 84 89 NW 3 14824 13423 6923 Blue 34
11 AM Mon 87 93 NW 3 16606 15158 8658 Blue 38
12 Noon Mon 90 97 W 3 18475 16997 10497 Blue 42
1 PM Mon 92 99 W 5 19324 17764 11264 Blue 44
2 PM Mon 92 99 SW 7 19324 17764 11264 Blue 44
3 PM Mon 93 98 SW 8 18958 17359 10859 Blue 43
4 PM Mon 93 96 SW 9 17977 16356 9856 Blue 41
5 PM Mon 92 93 SW 10 16606 15158 8658 Blue 38
6 PM Mon 90 90 SW 12 15232 13703 7203 Blue 35
7 PM Mon 86 86 W 13 13566 12376 5876 Blue 31
8 PM Mon 82 82 W 13 10945 9618 3118 Blue 27
9 PM Mon 79 79 W 12 9670 8469 1969 Blue 24
10 PM Mon 78 78 W 9 9273 8192 1692 Blue 23
11 PM Mon 76 76 W 7 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 NW 6 8218 7380 880 Blue 21
1 AM Tue 74 74 NW 5 7937 7365 865 Blue 20
2 AM Tue 73 73 NW 5 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
3 AM Tue 72 72 NW 5 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
4 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
5 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
6 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
7 AM Tue 73 73 N 3 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
8 AM Tue 77 78 N 5 9273 8192 1692 Blue 23
9 AM Tue 82 84 N 5 12934 9846 3346 Blue 29
10 AM Tue 86 90 NW 6 15232 13703 7203 Blue 35
11 AM Tue 89 94 W 6 17141 15383 8883 Blue 39
12 Noon Tue 92 99 SW 7 19324 17764 11264 Blue 44
1 PM Tue 94 101 SW 8 19748 18739 12239 Blue 46
2 PM Tue 94 100 SW 8 19547 18259 11759 Blue 45
3 PM Tue 95 99 SW 9 19324 17764 11264 Blue 44
4 PM Tue 95 98 SW 9 18958 17359 10859 Blue 43
5 PM Tue 94 95 SW 9 17505 15666 9166 Blue 40
6 PM Tue 92 92 SW 9 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
7 PM Tue 88 88 SW 9 13847 13125 6625 Blue 33
8 PM Tue 83 83 SW 10 12595 9751 3251 Blue 28
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 10 9860 9223 2723 Blue 26
10 PM Tue 79 79 SW 10 9670 8469 1969 Blue 24
11 PM Tue 77 77 SW 9 8867 7914 1414 Blue 22
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 SW 8 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
1 AM Wed 76 76 W 7 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
2 AM Wed 74 74 NW 7 7937 7365 865 Blue 20
3 AM Wed 73 73 N 6 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
4 AM Wed 72 72 N 6 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
5 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
6 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
7 AM Wed 73 73 N 5 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
8 AM Wed 77 78 NW 5 9273 8192 1692 Blue 23
9 AM Wed 81 83 NW 5 12595 9751 3251 Blue 28
10 AM Wed 84 88 W 6 13847 13125 6625 Blue 33
11 AM Wed 87 92 SW 7 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
12 Noon Wed 89 95 SW 8 17505 15666 9166 Blue 40
1 PM Wed 91 97 SW 9 18475 16997 10497 Blue 42
2 PM Wed 91 96 SW 12 17977 16356 9856 Blue 41
3 PM Wed 92 96 SW 13 17977 16356 9856 Blue 41
4 PM Wed 92 94 SW 13 17141 15383 8883 Blue 39
5 PM Wed 91 92 SW 13 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
6 PM Wed 89 89 SW 13 14824 13423 6923 Blue 34
7 PM Wed 85 85 SW 13 13189 10524 4024 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 81 81 SW 13 9860 9223 2723 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 13 9273 8192 1692 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 12 8867 7914 1414 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 8218 7380 880 Blue 21
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 W 8 7937 7365 865 Blue 20
1 AM Thu 73 73 W 7 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
2 AM Thu 72 72 NW 6 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
3 AM Thu 71 71 N 6 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
4 AM Thu 70 70 N 6 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
5 AM Thu 69 69 N 6 7341 7306 806 Blue 15
6 AM Thu 69 69 N 6 7341 7306 806 Blue 15
7 AM Thu 71 71 NW 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
8 AM Thu 75 76 W 3 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
9 AM Thu 78 80 W 3 9765 8822 2322 Blue 25
10 AM Thu 81 84 W 5 12934 9846 3346 Blue 29
11 AM Thu 84 88 W 6 13847 13125 6625 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 86 91 W 8 15459 13816 7316 Blue 36
1 PM Thu 88 93 W 9 16606 15158 8658 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 88 92 W 10 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 89 92 SW 10 15914 14377 7877 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 89 91 W 10 15459 13816 7316 Blue 36
5 PM Thu 88 89 W 10 14824 13423 6923 Blue 34
6 PM Thu 86 86 W 10 13566 12376 5876 Blue 31
7 PM Thu 83 83 W 10 12595 9751 3251 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 9 9670 8469 1969 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 9 8867 7914 1414 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 9 8497 7619 1119 Blue 22
11 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 7937 7365 865 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 W 8 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
1 AM Fri 73 73 W 7 7655 7352 852 Blue 19
2 AM Fri 72 72 NW 6 7381 7340 840 Blue 18
3 AM Fri 71 71 N 5 7366 7329 829 Blue 17
4 AM Fri 70 70 N 3 7352 7318 818 Blue 16
5 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 7341 7306 806 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com