Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Thu 54 54 N 3 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 7316 7278 778 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 58 60 N 3 7394 7339 839 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 62 66 N 3 7547 7456 956 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 66 72 NW 3 9131 7906 1406 Blue 30
11 AM Thu 70 77 W 3 14768 11145 4645 Blue 35
12 Noon Thu 74 82 SW 3 17156 16184 9684 Blue 40
1 PM Thu 76 83 SW 5 18232 16669 10169 Blue 41
2 PM Thu 78 84 SW 6 18712 16963 10463 Blue 42
3 PM Thu 79 83 SW 7 18232 16669 10169 Blue 41
4 PM Thu 80 82 SW 8 17156 16184 9684 Blue 40
5 PM Thu 79 80 SW 10 16856 14239 7739 Blue 38
6 PM Thu 78 78 SW 10 15865 12233 5733 Blue 36
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 13521 10353 3853 Blue 34
8 PM Thu 73 73 SW 10 10423 8231 1731 Blue 31
9 PM Thu 70 70 SW 8 8262 7610 1110 Blue 28
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 7737 7515 1015 Blue 26
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 2 7547 7456 956 Blue 24
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NW 1 7517 7435 935 Blue 23
1 AM Fri 63 63 NW 2 7457 7393 893 Blue 21
2 AM Fri 62 62 N 3 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 7394 7339 839 Blue 18
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 7373 7327 827 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 7340 7303 803 Blue 15
6 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 7340 7303 803 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 58 58 NE 5 7352 7315 815 Blue 16
8 AM Fri 60 62 NE 3 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
9 AM Fri 64 67 NE 3 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 68 73 E 5 10423 8231 1731 Blue 31
11 AM Fri 72 79 S 5 16368 13416 6916 Blue 37
12 Noon Fri 76 84 S 7 18712 16963 10463 Blue 42
1 PM Fri 77 84 S 9 18712 16963 10463 Blue 42
2 PM Fri 78 84 SW 13 18712 16963 10463 Blue 42
3 PM Fri 78 82 SW 15 17156 16184 9684 Blue 40
4 PM Fri 78 81 SW 16 17018 15686 9186 Blue 39
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 17 16368 13416 6916 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 16 14768 11145 4645 Blue 35
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 14 13030 8911 2411 Blue 33
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 9131 7906 1406 Blue 30
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 9 8262 7610 1110 Blue 28
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 6 7547 7456 956 Blue 24
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 6 7487 7414 914 Blue 22
1 AM Sat 63 63 NW 5 7457 7393 893 Blue 21
2 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 7394 7339 839 Blue 18
4 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 7352 7315 815 Blue 16
5 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 7328 7291 791 Blue 14
6 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 7328 7291 791 Blue 14
7 AM Sat 58 58 E 3 7352 7315 815 Blue 16
8 AM Sat 61 62 E 3 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
9 AM Sat 64 67 SE 5 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
10 AM Sat 67 72 SE 6 9131 7906 1406 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 70 76 S 7 13521 10353 3853 Blue 34
12 Noon Sat 72 79 S 8 16368 13416 6916 Blue 37
1 PM Sat 74 81 S 9 17018 15686 9186 Blue 39
2 PM Sat 76 82 S 10 17156 16184 9684 Blue 40
3 PM Sat 77 82 S 10 17156 16184 9684 Blue 40
4 PM Sat 77 80 S 12 16856 14239 7739 Blue 38
5 PM Sat 77 78 SW 13 15865 12233 5733 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 13 13030 8911 2411 Blue 33
7 PM Sat 73 73 SW 12 10423 8231 1731 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 70 70 SW 10 8262 7610 1110 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 8 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
10 PM Sat 65 65 SW 8 7517 7435 935 Blue 23
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 7 7457 7393 893 Blue 21
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 7 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
1 AM Sun 60 60 SW 7 7394 7339 839 Blue 18
2 AM Sun 58 58 S 7 7352 7315 815 Blue 16
3 AM Sun 56 56 S 7 7328 7291 791 Blue 14
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 7316 7278 778 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 54 54 S 7 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 54 54 S 8 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 55 55 S 8 7316 7278 778 Blue 13
8 AM Sun 58 59 S 8 7373 7327 827 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 61 64 S 9 7487 7414 914 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 64 69 S 12 7934 7545 1045 Blue 27
11 AM Sun 67 73 S 13 10423 8231 1731 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 70 77 S 15 14768 11145 4645 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 72 78 S 15 15865 12233 5733 Blue 36
2 PM Sun 74 79 SW 14 16368 13416 6916 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 14 16368 13416 6916 Blue 37
4 PM Sun 75 77 SW 14 14768 11145 4645 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 75 76 SW 14 13521 10353 3853 Blue 34
6 PM Sun 74 74 SW 15 11344 8553 2053 Blue 32
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 14 9131 7906 1406 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 14 8262 7610 1110 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 13 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 12 7517 7435 935 Blue 23
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 10 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 9 7394 7339 839 Blue 18
1 AM Mon 58 58 SW 8 7352 7315 815 Blue 16
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 8 7328 7291 791 Blue 14
3 AM Mon 55 55 S 8 7316 7278 778 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 8 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 8 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
6 AM Mon 54 54 S 9 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 56 56 S 9 7328 7291 791 Blue 14
8 AM Mon 57 58 S 10 7352 7315 815 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 59 61 S 12 7415 7351 851 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 62 65 S 13 7517 7435 935 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 64 68 S 13 7737 7515 1015 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 66 70 S 14 8262 7610 1110 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 67 71 S 16 8587 7728 1228 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 68 71 S 17 8587 7728 1228 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 68 70 S 20 8262 7610 1110 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 68 69 S 21 7934 7545 1045 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 67 67 S 22 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 66 66 S 22 7547 7456 956 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 64 64 SW 21 7487 7414 914 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 20 7436 7372 872 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 59 59 SW 17 7373 7327 827 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 57 57 SW 15 7340 7303 803 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 54 54 SW 13 7304 7266 766 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SW 9 7279 7242 742 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 12 7255 7218 718 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 12 7243 7206 706 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 10 7231 7193 693 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 12 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 12 7218 7181 681 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 12 7231 7193 693 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 12 7243 7206 706 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 51 52 S 13 7279 7242 742 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 54 57 S 13 7340 7303 803 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 56 60 S 13 7394 7339 839 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 58 64 S 13 7487 7414 914 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 61 67 S 13 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 62 68 S 13 7737 7515 1015 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 64 69 SW 14 7934 7545 1045 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 65 69 SW 14 7934 7545 1045 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 65 67 SW 14 7619 7485 985 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 65 66 SW 15 7547 7456 956 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 15 7517 7435 935 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 15 7487 7414 914 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 14 7457 7393 893 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 14 7415 7351 851 Blue 19
10 PM Tue 59 59 SW 13 7373 7327 827 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 12 7340 7303 803 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SW 12 7316 7278 778 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 7291 7254 754 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 51 51 S 10 7267 7230 730 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 7243 7206 706 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 7231 7193 693 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 48 48 S 10 7231 7193 693 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com