Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 MAY 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SSW 17 25 9545 8598 2098 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 16 23 8887 8075 1575 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 14 20 8359 7547 1047 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 59 59 S 16 23 8095 7281 781 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 18 25 7562 7149 649 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 56 56 S 17 24 7294 7149 649 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 57 57 S 17 24 7562 7149 649 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 60 61 S 18 26 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 62 64 S 18 25 9545 8598 2098 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 63 67 S 19 27 16865 9505 3005 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 66 72 S 21 29 17791 17057 10557 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 67 75 SSW 23 36 18079 17773 11273 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 70 79 SSW 24 39 19086 18262 11762 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 71 80 SSW 25 40 19342 18520 12020 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 71 78 SSW 25 40 18830 18061 11561 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 72 78 SSW 25 41 18830 18061 11561 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 72 75 SSW 25 40 18079 17773 11273 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 71 72 SSW 24 39 17791 17057 10557 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 70 70 SSW 23 32 17320 16854 10354 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 21 29 16942 9794 3294 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 66 66 SSW 20 28 16735 9180 2680 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 64 64 SSW 19 26 9545 8598 2098 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 18 25 8887 8075 1575 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 17 18 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SSW 14 17 8359 7547 1047 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 13 14 7829 7149 649 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 12 13 7294 7149 649 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 55 55 S 11 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 S 10 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 S 10 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 S 9 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 S 9 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 58 S 8 11 7829 7149 649 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 59 63 S 9 11 9217 8337 1837 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 61 67 S 10 13 16865 9505 3005 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 64 71 S 11 18 17546 16930 10430 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 66 74 S 12 20 17983 17508 11008 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 68 76 SSW 14 23 18313 17869 11369 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 69 76 SSW 14 24 18313 17869 11369 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 70 75 SSW 16 25 18079 17773 11273 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 70 73 SSW 16 25 17887 17283 10783 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 69 70 SSW 16 25 17320 16854 10354 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 14 19 16942 9794 3294 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 17 21 16735 9180 2680 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 16 20 9545 8598 2098 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 63 63 SSW 14 16 9217 8337 1837 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 61 61 S 12 13 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 60 60 S 10 11 8359 7547 1047 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 S 9 10 8095 7281 781 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 58 58 SSE 8 9 7829 7149 649 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 8 9 7562 7149 649 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 6 8 7294 7149 649 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 6 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 6 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 6 8 7562 7149 649 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 60 62 SSE 6 9 8887 8075 1575 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 63 67 S 8 11 16865 9505 3005 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 66 72 S 10 13 17791 17057 10557 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 69 76 S 12 20 18313 17869 11369 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 71 79 S 14 24 19086 18262 11762 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 73 81 SSW 16 26 19954 18775 12275 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 74 81 SSW 17 28 19954 18775 12275 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 74 79 SSW 18 28 19086 18262 11762 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 74 77 SSW 17 27 18572 17965 11465 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 73 74 SSW 17 26 17983 17508 11008 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 71 71 SSW 16 20 17546 16930 10430 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 14 19 16942 9794 3294 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 66 66 SSW 13 17 16735 9180 2680 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 64 64 SSW 12 13 9545 8598 2098 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 10 11 9217 8337 1837 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 9 10 8887 8075 1575 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 S 8 9 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 59 59 SE 6 8 8095 7281 781 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 58 58 ESE 6 8 7829 7149 649 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 6 8 7294 7149 649 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 ESE 5 6 7562 7149 649 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 60 60 SSE 5 6 8359 7547 1047 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 63 65 S 5 6 9830 8857 2357 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 67 71 S 5 8 17546 16930 10430 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 70 76 SSW 8 9 18313 17869 11369 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 73 81 SSW 9 14 19954 18775 12275 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 75 84 SSW 10 17 21814 19788 13288 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 76 84 SSW 12 19 21814 19788 13288 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 77 84 SSW 13 21 21814 19788 13288 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 77 82 SSW 14 23 20604 19030 12530 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 77 80 SW 14 24 19342 18520 12020 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 76 77 SW 14 24 18572 17965 11465 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 14 19 17983 17508 11008 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 72 72 SW 14 19 17791 17057 10557 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 14 18 17320 16854 10354 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 68 68 SW 13 14 16942 9794 3294 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 67 67 SSW 11 12 16865 9505 3005 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 65 65 SSW 10 11 9830 8857 2357 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 SSE 9 10 9545 8598 2098 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 8 9 8887 8075 1575 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 61 61 NNE 6 8 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 6 8 8095 7281 781 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 8 7829 7149 649 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 8 7829 7149 649 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 6 8 8095 7281 781 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 62 62 W 5 6 8887 8075 1575 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 65 67 SW 5 8 16865 9505 3005 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 68 72 SW 6 9 17791 17057 10557 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 72 78 SW 8 10 18830 18061 11561 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 75 83 SW 10 16 21223 19283 12783 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 77 86 SW 12 19 22930 21045 14545 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 79 87 SW 13 23 23458 21632 15132 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 80 87 SW 16 25 23458 21632 15132 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 80 85 SW 17 26 22382 20432 13932 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 80 83 WSW 17 27 21223 19283 12783 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 79 80 WSW 17 26 19342 18520 12020 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 17 21 18572 17965 11465 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 17 21 18079 17773 11273 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 73 73 WSW 16 20 17887 17283 10783 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 14 16 17546 16930 10430 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 12 14 17320 16854 10354 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 11 12 16942 9794 3294 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NW 10 11 16735 9180 2680 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 65 65 N 8 9 9830 8857 2357 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 63 63 NNE 8 9 9217 8337 1837 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 61 61 NNE 8 9 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 8 9 8359 7547 1047 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 8 9 8359 7547 1047 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 61 61 NE 8 9 8622 7812 1312 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 64 65 NE 6 8 9830 8857 2357 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 67 69 NE 6 9 17092 16710 10210 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 71 75 E 8 9 18079 17773 11273 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 75 81 S 9 11 19954 18775 12275 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 78 86 SSW 10 16 22930 21045 14545 Blue 30
12 Noon Wed 81 90 SSW 11 17 24778 23265 16765 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 83 92 SSW 12 19 24942 24341 17841 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 84 91 SSW 12 20 24860 23774 17274 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 84 90 SSW 13 21 24778 23265 16765 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 83 86 SW 13 23 22930 21045 14545 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 82 83 SW 14 23 21223 19283 12783 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 80 80 SW 14 18 19342 18520 12020 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 77 77 SSW 14 18 18572 17965 11465 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 75 75 SSW 13 17 18079 17773 11273 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 12 13 17887 17283 10783 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 71 71 S 10 11 17546 16930 10430 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com