Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 42 42 NE 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NE 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 NE 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 42 NE 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 44 NE 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 44 NE 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 45 NE 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 46 46 NE 10 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 46 46 NE 9 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 46 46 NE 9 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 45 45 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 NE 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 E 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 45 E 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 48 E 10 8572 7149 649 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 49 52 E 9 9403 8660 2160 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 51 55 E 9 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 51 55 E 9 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 53 56 E 8 10656 9526 3026 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 54 56 E 7 10656 9526 3026 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 56 57 E 7 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 57 57 E 8 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 57 57 E 8 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 56 56 E 8 10656 9526 3026 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 54 54 E 8 9690 9134 2634 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 52 52 E 8 9403 8660 2160 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 7 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 49 49 E 7 8671 7166 666 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 E 7 8572 7149 649 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 7522 7149 649 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 7 7522 7149 649 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 7167 7149 649 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 E 7 7522 7149 649 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 48 50 E 7 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 51 54 E 6 9690 9134 2634 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 53 57 E 6 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 56 60 E 5 12718 11195 4695 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 58 61 E 5 13182 11823 5323 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 60 62 NE 5 13768 12249 5749 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 61 62 NE 5 13768 12249 5749 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 13182 11823 5323 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 60 60 N 6 12718 11195 4695 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 6 12339 10535 4035 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 57 57 NE 6 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 55 55 NE 6 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 53 53 NE 6 9546 8758 2258 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 7 9216 8562 2062 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 7 8671 7166 666 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 8572 7149 649 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 8 8572 7149 649 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 8 7522 7149 649 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 8 7522 7149 649 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 8 7522 7149 649 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 8572 7149 649 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 8671 7166 666 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 51 51 NE 9 9216 8562 2062 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 54 55 NE 9 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 56 59 NE 10 12339 10535 4035 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 59 63 NE 10 14330 12624 6124 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 61 65 NE 12 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 63 67 NE 12 15734 14698 8198 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 64 67 NE 12 15734 14698 8198 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 65 67 NE 13 15734 14698 8198 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 65 66 NE 13 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 65 65 NE 13 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 65 65 NE 14 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 65 65 NE 14 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 65 65 NE 13 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 64 64 NE 13 14871 13024 6524 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 63 63 NE 13 14330 12624 6124 Blue 18
11 PM Fri 62 62 NE 13 13768 12249 5749 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 NE 13 12718 11195 4695 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 58 58 NE 13 11954 9811 3311 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 55 55 NE 13 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 13 9546 8758 2258 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 14 9216 8562 2062 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 14 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 14 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 13 9216 8562 2062 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 13 9403 8660 2160 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 54 55 E 13 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 56 58 E 13 11954 9811 3311 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 59 62 E 13 13768 12249 5749 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 61 64 E 13 14871 13024 6524 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 63 66 E 13 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 64 66 E 13 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 65 66 E 14 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 66 66 E 14 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 66 66 E 14 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 66 66 E 14 15565 14161 7661 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 64 64 E 14 14871 13024 6524 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 63 63 E 14 14330 12624 6124 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 61 61 E 13 13182 11823 5323 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 59 59 E 13 12339 10535 4035 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 57 57 E 13 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 12 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 12 9690 9134 2634 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 10 9546 8758 2258 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 10 9403 8660 2160 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 52 52 E 10 9403 8660 2160 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 10 9403 8660 2160 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 10 9546 8758 2258 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 54 54 E 10 9690 9134 2634 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 55 55 E 10 9906 9383 2883 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 56 57 E 10 11324 9669 3169 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 57 58 E 10 11954 9811 3311 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 10 13182 11823 5323 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 60 62 E 10 13768 12249 5749 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 10 14871 13024 6524 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 63 65 SE 10 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 64 65 SE 10 15394 13604 7104 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 64 64 SE 10 14871 13024 6524 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 64 64 SE 9 14871 13024 6524 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 63 63 SE 9 14330 12624 6124 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 62 62 SE 9 13768 12249 5749 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 60 60 SE 8 12718 11195 4695 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 58 58 SE 8 11954 9811 3311 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 56 56 SE 7 10656 9526 3026 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 9690 9134 2634 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 7 9546 8758 2258 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 51 51 E 7 9216 8562 2062 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 8 8770 7431 931 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 50 50 E 8 8770 7431 931 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com