Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

1 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SE 2 4 7585 7509 1009 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 62 62 S 3 5 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 61 61 SSW 6 10 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
3 AM Sat 60 60 SSW 5 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
4 AM Sat 60 60 SSW 5 8 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 4 6 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 4 5 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 3 5 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 5 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
9 AM Sat 65 67 E 2 5 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 68 71 E 3 6 10620 8513 2013 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 73 78 ESE 4 10 19337 19457 12957 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 75 80 ESE 5 11 19270 19383 12883 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 76 80 SSE 4 11 19270 19383 12883 Blue 34
2 PM Sat 77 80 SSW 6 12 19270 19383 12883 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 75 77 SSW 5 13 19373 17465 10965 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 75 76 SSW 5 14 19409 15094 8594 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 74 74 SW 6 13 17900 10259 3759 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 70 70 SW 6 13 9867 7904 1404 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 5 11 8589 7634 1134 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 6 10 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 5 8 7661 7584 1084 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 6 7636 7559 1059 Blue 19
11 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 5 6 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NW 5 6 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
1 AM Sun 62 62 N 5 8 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
2 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 9 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
3 AM Sun 60 60 SSE 5 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 9 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 8 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 59 59 NW 5 8 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 59 59 NNW 5 6 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
8 AM Sun 62 62 E 5 8 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 66 67 E 5 10 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
10 AM Sun 68 70 ESE 5 11 9867 7904 1404 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 72 74 SE 6 12 17900 10259 3759 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 75 77 SE 8 14 19373 17465 10965 Blue 31
1 PM Sun 76 78 S 8 16 19337 19457 12957 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 76 78 S 8 17 19337 19457 12957 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 75 76 S 6 16 19409 15094 8594 Blue 30
4 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 6 14 17900 10259 3759 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 5 12 13078 9312 2812 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 70 70 S 5 11 9867 7904 1404 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 67 67 SE 6 11 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 65 65 ESE 6 10 7636 7559 1059 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 64 64 ESE 6 9 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 63 63 E 5 8 7585 7509 1009 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 62 62 ENE 5 6 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 ENE 5 6 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 6 8 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
2 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
3 AM Mon 59 59 NE 6 9 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 8 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 8 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 8 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 9 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 5 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
9 AM Mon 63 64 ENE 5 9 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 67 69 E 5 10 9403 7659 1159 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 71 72 ESE 5 10 13078 9312 2812 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 73 75 SSE 5 11 19447 12692 6192 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 75 77 SW 5 11 19373 17465 10965 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 75 76 WSW 5 12 19409 15094 8594 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 74 75 W 5 13 19447 12692 6192 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 71 71 W 6 13 10620 8513 2013 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 6 13 9403 7659 1159 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 12 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 65 65 N 6 11 7636 7559 1059 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 64 64 NNE 6 10 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 63 63 NNE 6 10 7585 7509 1009 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 62 62 NNE 6 10 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 61 61 NNE 6 10 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NNE 6 10 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
1 AM Tue 59 59 NE 8 10 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
2 AM Tue 58 58 NE 8 10 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 10 7435 7358 858 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 6 10 7410 7333 833 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 5 10 7410 7333 833 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 5 10 7410 7333 833 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 6 10 7435 7358 858 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 6 10 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 63 64 NNE 6 10 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 67 69 N 5 11 9403 7659 1159 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 71 74 N 5 11 17900 10259 3759 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 73 76 N 5 12 19409 15094 8594 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 75 78 NNW 5 13 19337 19457 12957 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 75 78 NW 5 13 19337 19457 12957 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 75 77 NNW 5 13 19373 17465 10965 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 74 75 N 5 12 19447 12692 6192 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 72 72 N 5 11 13078 9312 2812 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 70 70 NNE 5 10 9867 7904 1404 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 67 67 ENE 5 10 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 65 65 E 5 9 7636 7559 1059 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 63 63 ENE 5 8 7585 7509 1009 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 62 62 NE 5 8 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 61 61 NE 5 8 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NE 5 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 59 59 NNE 6 9 7485 7408 908 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 6 10 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 57 57 NNE 6 9 7435 7358 858 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 5 9 7385 7308 808 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 5 8 7385 7308 808 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 5 8 7410 7333 833 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 5 9 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 5 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 63 65 NNE 5 9 7636 7559 1059 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 67 70 NNE 5 10 9867 7904 1404 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 70 75 NNE 5 10 19447 12692 6192 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 72 77 N 5 11 19373 17465 10965 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 74 79 N 5 11 19303 19419 12919 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 75 79 N 5 12 19303 19419 12919 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 75 77 N 5 13 19373 17465 10965 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 74 75 N 5 13 19447 12692 6192 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 72 72 N 5 13 13078 9312 2812 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 69 69 NNE 5 12 9403 7659 1159 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 67 67 NE 6 11 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 64 64 ENE 6 10 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 63 63 NE 6 9 7585 7509 1009 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 62 62 NE 6 9 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 61 61 NNE 6 9 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NNE 6 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 8 9 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 8 9 7435 7358 858 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 8 9 7410 7333 833 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 6 9 7385 7308 808 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 6 9 7385 7308 808 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 6 9 7385 7308 808 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 6 10 7410 7333 833 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 6 10 7460 7383 883 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 61 62 NNE 6 10 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 65 68 NE 6 11 8589 7634 1134 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 68 72 NE 6 12 13078 9312 2812 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 70 74 ENE 6 13 17900 10259 3759 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 71 75 E 6 16 19447 12692 6192 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 71 74 ESE 6 17 17900 10259 3759 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 71 73 ESE 6 17 15504 9808 3308 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 70 71 E 6 17 10620 8513 2013 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 69 69 E 6 16 9403 7659 1159 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 67 67 E 6 14 7933 7609 1109 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 64 64 E 8 13 7611 7534 1034 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 62 62 ENE 8 12 7560 7483 983 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 61 61 ENE 6 10 7535 7458 958 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 60 60 NE 6 9 7510 7433 933 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com