Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.0, -121.47, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 59 49 ENE 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 49 WNW 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 49 W 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 48 W 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 48 W 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 47 W 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 47 W 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 47 W 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 49 W 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 52 W 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 54 WSW 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 55 WSW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 57 WSW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 59 WSW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 59 W 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 58 WSW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 56 SW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 53 SW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 52 SSW 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 51 SSW 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 49 ENE 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 49 ENE 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 48 ENE 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 48 ENE 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 49 ENE 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 48 ENE 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 48 W 1 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 47 ENE 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 47 E 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 46 ENE 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 47 E 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 46 E 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 50 ESE 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 53 SE 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 54 SE 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 57 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 59 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 59 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 60 SSW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 59 SSW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 57 SSW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 55 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 53 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 52 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 51 SE 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 50 SE 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 50 SE 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 50 E 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 50 E 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 50 E 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 50 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 49 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 49 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 48 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 49 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 50 S 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 51 S 4 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 53 S 4 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 56 S 4 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 58 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 59 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 60 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 61 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 59 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 58 S 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 56 SE 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 54 SE 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 52 SE 3 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 51 E 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 51 E 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 50 E 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 50 E 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 50 E 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 51 E 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 51 W 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 50 W 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 50 W 2 3 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 49 W 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 50 W 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 52 W 2 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 53 NNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 56 NNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 58 NNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 60 WNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 61 WNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 61 WNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 62 WNW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 62 WNW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 60 WNW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 59 NW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 57 NW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 56 NW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 55 NW 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 54 NW 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 54 NW 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 53 NNW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 52 NNW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 52 NNW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 51 N 8 9 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 51 N 8 9 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 50 N 8 9 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 51 N 9 11 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 52 N 9 11 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 53 N 9 11 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 54 N 9 11 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 57 N 9 11 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 60 N 9 11 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 62 NW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 66 NW 5 6 2605 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 66 NW 5 6 2605 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 67 NW 6 8 2664 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 71 66 NW 6 8 2605 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 71 64 NW 6 8 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 71 62 NW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 70 60 NW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 59 NW 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 58 NNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 57 NNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 57 NNW 3 4 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 57 N 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 57 N 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 57 N 4 5 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 57 NNE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 57 NNE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 56 NNE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 56 NNE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 57 NNE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 58 NNE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 60 NE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 62 NE 5 6 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 65 NE 5 6 2546 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 67 ESE 2 3 2664 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 74 69 ESE 2 3 2781 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 75 71 ESE 2 3 2928 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 75 71 W 2 3 2928 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 75 70 W 2 3 2840 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 74 67 W 2 3 2664 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 64 W 1 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 72 62 W 1 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 60 W 1 2 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 59 NNW 0 0 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 58 NNW 0 0 2533 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 58 NNW 0 0 2533 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com