Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 60 50 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 50 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 50 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 50 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 52 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 53 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 56 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 56 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 57 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 58 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 57 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 57 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 55 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 51 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 50 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 51 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 50 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 50 E 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 49 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 48 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 49 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 48 E 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 46 E 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 46 E 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 46 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 46 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 46 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 46 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 48 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 49 E 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 51 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 52 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 53 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 53 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 53 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 52 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 51 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 49 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 48 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 49 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 48 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 48 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 48 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 47 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 48 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 47 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 46 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 46 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 46 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 46 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 46 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 46 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 49 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 50 E 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 52 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 53 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 53 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 54 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 55 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 54 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 53 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 51 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 50 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 50 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 50 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 50 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 49 E 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 49 E 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 49 E 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 48 E 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 47 E 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 47 E 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 47 SE 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 47 SE 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 47 SE 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 48 SE 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 49 SE 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 50 SE 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 52 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 52 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 53 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 53 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 53 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 52 S 3 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 52 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 49 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 48 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 49 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 48 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 48 S 2 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 48 SE 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 47 SE 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 47 SE 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 46 SE 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 45 SE 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 45 SE 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 45 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 45 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 45 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 46 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 48 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 49 E 6 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 51 SE 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 51 SE 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 52 SE 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 52 SE 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 61 52 SE 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 51 SE 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 51 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 48 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 48 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 48 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 48 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 48 S 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 47 S 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 47 S 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 47 S 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 46 S 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 45 S 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 45 S 7 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 45 SE 9 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 45 SE 9 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 45 SE 9 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 45 SE 9 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 46 SE 9 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 46 SE 9 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 46 S 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 46 S 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 47 S 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 47 S 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 47 S 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 47 S 13 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 47 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 45 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 45 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 45 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 45 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 45 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 44 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 44 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 44 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 44 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 43 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 43 S 10 2631 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com