Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 42 32 N 2 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 32 N 2 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 32 N 2 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 33 W 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 34 W 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 36 W 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 36 W 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 37 W 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 38 W 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 38 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 38 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 37 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 37 W 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 36 W 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 36 W 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 35 SW 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 34 SW 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 34 SW 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 34 SW 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 34 SW 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 34 SW 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 34 SW 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 34 SW 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 33 SW 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 33 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 33 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 33 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 34 NW 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 35 NW 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 37 NW 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 40 W 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 42 W 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 43 W 13 2747 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 43 W 13 2747 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 42 W 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 40 W 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 39 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 37 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 36 W 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 35 NE 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 34 NE 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 34 NE 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 34 E 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 34 E 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 33 E 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 33 E 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 33 E 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 32 E 6 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 32 SE 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 32 SE 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 32 SE 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 33 S 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 36 S 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 39 S 5 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 42 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 45 SW 7 3014 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 45 SW 7 3014 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 45 SW 8 3014 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 44 SW 8 2880 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 43 SW 8 2747 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 41 SW 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 40 SW 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 38 SW 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 37 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 36 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 36 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 36 S 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 35 S 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 34 S 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 34 SW 24 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 34 SW 24 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 33 SW 24 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 33 SW 23 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 33 SW 23 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 33 SW 23 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 34 SW 23 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 35 SW 23 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 38 SW 23 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 41 S 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 42 S 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 44 S 8 2880 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 51 44 S 8 2880 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 51 43 S 8 2747 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 41 S 8 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 40 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 39 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 38 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 37 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 36 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 37 SW 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 37 S 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 36 S 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 36 S 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 36 S 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 36 S 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 35 S 7 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 35 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 35 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 35 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 36 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 36 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 39 S 9 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 39 S 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 41 S 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 41 S 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 50 41 S 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 41 S 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 40 S 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 39 W 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 38 W 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 37 W 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 36 W 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 34 W 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 35 W 10 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 35 S 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 34 S 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 34 S 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 34 S 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 33 S 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 32 S 13 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 32 SW 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 32 SW 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 32 SW 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 33 SW 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 33 SW 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 34 SW 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 37 W 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 38 W 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 38 W 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 38 W 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 38 W 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 46 37 W 16 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 36 W 15 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 35 W 15 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 34 W 15 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 33 W 15 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 32 W 15 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 32 W 15 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 32 NW 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 32 NW 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 32 NW 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 32 NW 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 31 NW 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 31 NW 12 2687 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com