Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 64 54 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 53 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 54 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 59 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 62 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 64 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 67 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 69 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 70 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 72 71 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 69 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 71 66 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 65 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 73 65 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 63 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 60 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 55 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 56 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 57 NW 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 57 NW 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 55 NW 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 53 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 52 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 52 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 52 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 50 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 51 NW 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 56 W 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 58 W 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 60 W 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 63 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 64 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 66 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 66 W 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 65 W 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 62 W 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 68 61 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 60 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 59 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 57 W 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 52 W 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 53 W 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 54 NW 1 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 54 NW 1 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 52 NW 1 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 50 NE 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 50 NE 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 50 NE 2 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 49 E 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 48 E 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 49 E 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 53 NW 8 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 56 NW 8 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 58 NW 8 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 59 NW 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 62 NW 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 62 NW 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 62 W 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 61 W 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 59 W 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 58 W 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 57 W 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 56 W 9 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 54 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 50 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 52 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 52 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 52 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 50 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 49 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 48 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 48 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 48 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 47 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 47 NW 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 52 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 55 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 57 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 59 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 61 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 61 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 61 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 60 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 58 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 57 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 66 57 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 56 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 54 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 51 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 51 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 52 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 52 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 50 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 49 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 48 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 49 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 48 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 48 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 48 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 52 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 55 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 57 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 59 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 61 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 61 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 61 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 60 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 58 SW 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 57 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 56 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 55 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 54 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 50 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 51 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 51 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 51 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 50 W 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 48 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 48 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 48 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 48 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 47 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 48 S 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 52 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 55 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 57 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 59 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 61 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 61 S 6 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 62 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 61 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 58 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 58 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 57 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 56 W 7 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 54 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 50 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 51 W 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 52 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 52 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 50 NW 5 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 49 NW 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 48 NW 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 49 NW 3 2648 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com