Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 28 25 SW 17 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 26 SW 17 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 25 SW 16 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 25 W 15 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 25 W 13 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 25 W 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 26 W 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 29 W 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 30 NW 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 33 31 NW 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 33 31 NW 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 33 30 N 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 31 28 N 10 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 30 27 N 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 28 25 N 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 24 N 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 25 22 N 10 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 25 22 N 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 21 N 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 22 N 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 24 21 N 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 23 20 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 20 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 22 19 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 21 18 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 20 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 21 18 NE 13 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 20 17 NE 13 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 21 18 NE 13 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 24 21 NE 14 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 24 NE 14 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 28 NE 14 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 32 31 NE 14 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 32 30 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 32 30 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 31 28 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 30 27 NE 10 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 25 NE 10 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 23 NE 10 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 25 22 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 21 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 21 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 24 21 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 21 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 23 20 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 22 19 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 21 18 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 21 18 NE 12 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 17 NE 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 19 16 NE 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 19 16 NE 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 17 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 22 19 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 22 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 28 26 E 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 31 29 E 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 34 33 E 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 36 34 E 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 36 34 E 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 33 E 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 34 31 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 29 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 29 26 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 27 24 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 26 23 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 25 22 NE 9 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 21 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 23 20 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 23 20 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 22 19 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 22 19 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 21 18 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 19 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 21 18 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 17 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 21 18 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 21 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 24 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 29 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 33 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 37 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 38 E 3 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 38 E 3 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 36 E 3 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 37 34 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 32 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 29 NE 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 27 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 25 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 24 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 23 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 25 22 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 24 21 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 21 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 21 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 23 20 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 20 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 19 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 19 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 19 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 21 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 27 24 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 30 28 E 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 31 E 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 34 E 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 38 36 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 38 35 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 38 35 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 36 33 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 31 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 29 E 5 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 30 27 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 25 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 24 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 23 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 23 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 23 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 26 23 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 26 23 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 22 E 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 22 SE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 21 SE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 21 SE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 21 SE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 23 SE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 26 SE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 29 S 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 35 33 S 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 37 35 S 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 38 36 SW 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 38 35 SW 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 37 34 SW 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 36 33 SW 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 31 SW 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 29 SW 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 27 NE 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 26 NE 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 25 NE 8 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 24 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 27 24 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 23 NE 7 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 26 23 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 22 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 22 NE 6 5850 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com