Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 55 52 NW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 52 NW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 54 NW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 58 NE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 65 NE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 72 NE 3 6799 6188 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 75 77 S 8 9164 7644 1456 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 79 83 S 8 12263 10500 4312 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 81 85 S 8 12902 11625 5437 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 82 86 SW 15 13078 12161 5973 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 83 86 SW 15 13078 12161 5973 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 83 84 SW 15 12726 11072 4884 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 82 81 SW 15 11161 9589 3401 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 79 77 SW 15 9164 7644 1456 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 75 72 SW 15 6799 6188 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 71 68 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 64 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 62 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 59 SW 6 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 57 SW 6 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 56 SW 6 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 54 W 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 53 W 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 52 W 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 51 NW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 51 NW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 53 NW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 56 E 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 62 E 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 68 E 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 74 S 9 7668 6558 370 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 75 79 S 9 10106 8639 2451 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 76 80 S 9 10580 9119 2931 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 77 81 SW 13 11161 9589 3401 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 78 81 SW 13 11161 9589 3401 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 79 80 SW 13 10580 9119 2931 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 78 77 SW 13 9164 7644 1456 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 76 74 SW 13 7668 6558 370 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 72 69 SW 13 5593 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 65 SW 10 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 62 SW 10 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 59 SW 10 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 57 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 56 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 54 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 53 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 51 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 50 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 49 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 49 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 51 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 54 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 60 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 66 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 71 S 9 6561 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 71 75 S 9 8179 6794 606 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 72 76 S 9 8677 7127 939 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 73 77 SW 14 9164 7644 1456 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 74 77 SW 14 9164 7644 1456 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 74 75 SW 14 8179 6794 606 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 73 72 SW 14 6799 6188 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 70 68 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 67 64 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 60 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 56 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 53 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 51 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 49 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 48 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 47 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 46 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 44 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 44 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 45 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 47 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 50 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 57 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 71 S 13 6561 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 72 75 S 13 8179 6794 606 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 74 78 S 13 9640 8147 1959 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 75 79 S 13 10106 8639 2451 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 75 78 S 13 9640 8147 1959 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 75 76 S 13 8677 7127 939 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 73 72 SW 14 6799 6188 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 70 68 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 63 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 60 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 58 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 56 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 54 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 51 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 48 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 46 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 46 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 47 SW 3 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 47 NW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 48 NW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 49 NW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 52 NW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 58 NW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 65 NW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 71 SW 9 6561 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 72 75 SW 9 8179 6794 606 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 73 77 SW 9 9164 7644 1456 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 74 78 SW 9 9640 8147 1959 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 75 78 SW 9 9640 8147 1959 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 75 76 SW 9 8677 7127 939 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 74 73 SW 14 7143 6256 68 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 71 69 SW 14 5593 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 63 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 60 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 57 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 55 SW 14 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 53 SE 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 51 SE 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 48 SE 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 46 SE 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 46 SE 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 47 SE 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 47 SE 1 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 48 SE 1 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 49 SE 1 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 52 SE 1 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 58 SE 1 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 64 SE 1 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 70 S 6 6259 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 73 S 6 7143 6256 68 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 71 75 S 6 8179 6794 606 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 72 76 S 6 8677 7127 939 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 73 76 S 6 8677 7127 939 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 74 75 S 6 8179 6794 606 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 73 72 SW 13 6799 6188 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 70 68 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 63 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 59 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 56 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 55 SW 13 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 54 SW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 51 SW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 48 SW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 46 SW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 46 SW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 47 SW 2 5066 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com