Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 41 38 S 21 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 35 S 21 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 34 S 21 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 34 S 21 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 36 S 21 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 38 S 21 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 40 S 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 41 S 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 41 S 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 42 39 S 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 37 S 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 35 S 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 36 33 SW 17 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 32 SW 17 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 31 SW 17 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 30 SW 17 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 30 SW 17 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 30 SW 17 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 29 SW 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 28 SW 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 28 SW 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 27 SW 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 27 SW 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 27 SW 22 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 26 SW 16 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 25 SW 16 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 23 SW 16 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 22 SW 12 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 25 22 SW 12 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 23 SW 12 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 24 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 25 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 28 25 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 29 26 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 29 26 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 27 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 30 27 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 28 25 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 26 23 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 21 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 23 20 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 20 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 23 20 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 23 20 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 22 19 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 22 19 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 22 19 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 23 20 W 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 20 W 3 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 20 W 3 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 22 19 W 3 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 22 19 W 3 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 23 20 W 3 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 24 21 W 3 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 23 NW 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 28 26 NW 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 31 29 NW 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 32 30 NW 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 33 30 NW 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 33 30 NW 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 32 29 W 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 31 28 W 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 30 27 W 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 26 W 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 25 W 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 25 W 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 25 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 24 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 24 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 24 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 24 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 25 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 25 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 25 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 23 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 23 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 24 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 26 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 28 S 15 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 30 S 15 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 31 S 15 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 35 32 S 15 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 35 32 S 15 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 34 31 S 15 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 34 31 S 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 33 30 S 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 29 S 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 28 S 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 30 27 S 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 27 S 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 27 SW 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 28 SW 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 29 SW 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 30 SW 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 30 SW 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 29 SW 10 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 28 S 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 28 S 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 28 S 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 28 S 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 30 S 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 32 S 8 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 34 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 35 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 38 35 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 39 36 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 39 36 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 39 36 SW 7 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 36 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 34 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 33 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 34 31 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 30 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 30 SW 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 30 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 30 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 30 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 30 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 29 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 28 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 27 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 26 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 26 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 27 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 29 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 31 S 2 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 36 33 S 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 35 S 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 40 37 S 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 41 38 S 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 41 38 S 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 41 38 S 5 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 40 37 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 38 35 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 34 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 32 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 31 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 30 S 6 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 30 S 9 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 30 S 9 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 30 S 9 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 30 S 9 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 29 S 9 6004 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 28 S 9 6004 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com