Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 34 31 NE 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 31 NE 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 31 NE 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 34 NE 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 38 NE 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 44 NE 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 50 NE 10 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 53 NE 10 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 55 NE 10 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 55 E 13 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 55 E 13 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 55 E 13 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 54 NE 9 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 52 NE 9 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 49 NE 9 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 46 NE 9 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 43 NE 9 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 41 NE 9 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 40 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 39 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 39 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 38 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 36 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 35 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 33 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 33 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 33 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 36 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 40 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 46 NE 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 55 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 59 E 6 8718 6444 256 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 59 59 E 6 8718 6444 256 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 62 61 E 6 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 63 61 E 6 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 63 60 NE 5 8976 7491 1303 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 60 57 NE 5 7534 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 52 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 48 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 44 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 42 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 41 NE 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 40 NE 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 40 NE 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 39 NE 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 37 NE 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 35 NE 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 33 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 33 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 34 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 36 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 41 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 48 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 57 NE 5 7534 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 60 NE 5 8976 7491 1303 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 61 61 NE 5 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 63 62 NE 5 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 64 62 NE 5 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 64 61 NE 6 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 62 59 NE 6 8718 6444 256 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 58 55 NE 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 51 NE 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 47 NE 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 45 NE 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 43 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 42 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 42 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 41 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 40 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 38 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 36 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 34 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 33 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 35 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 40 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 47 NE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 54 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 59 E 7 8718 6444 256 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 61 61 E 7 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 62 62 E 7 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 63 62 E 7 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 64 62 E 7 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 63 60 E 8 8976 7491 1303 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 59 56 E 8 6455 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 51 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 47 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 45 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 44 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 43 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 41 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 38 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 36 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 36 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 36 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 36 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 35 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 34 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 35 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 41 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 49 E 7 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 56 E 9 6455 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 61 E 9 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 63 64 E 9 11214 9208 3020 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 64 64 E 9 11214 9208 3020 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 65 64 E 9 11214 9208 3020 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 66 64 E 9 11214 9208 3020 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 65 62 E 8 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 61 58 E 8 8458 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 53 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 48 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 46 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 45 E 8 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 44 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 41 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 38 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 35 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 35 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 35 E 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 35 SE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 35 SE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 34 SE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 35 SE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 40 SE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 47 SE 5 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 54 SE 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 59 SE 6 8718 6444 256 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 61 62 SE 6 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 62 62 SE 6 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 63 62 SE 6 9676 8697 2509 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 63 61 SE 6 9233 8425 2237 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 61 58 SW 6 8458 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 55 SW 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 50 SW 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 47 SW 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 44 SW 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 43 SW 6 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 41 S 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 39 S 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 37 S 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 35 S 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 35 S 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 35 S 3 5689 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com