Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 39 36 SE 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 35 SE 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 36 SE 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 38 SE 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 41 SE 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 44 SE 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 49 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 52 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 54 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 56 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 56 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 54 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 53 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 51 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 48 S 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 46 S 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 44 S 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 42 S 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 41 SE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 41 SE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 41 SE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 41 S 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 40 S 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 38 S 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 37 S 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 36 S 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 37 S 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 38 S 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 40 S 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 42 S 1 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 45 S 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 48 S 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 49 S 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 51 S 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 50 S 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 50 S 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 49 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 47 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 44 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 42 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 40 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 39 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 38 SW 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 37 SW 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 36 SW 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 36 SW 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 35 SW 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 34 SW 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 33 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 33 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 33 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 34 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 35 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 37 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 41 W 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 43 W 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 46 W 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 48 W 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 49 W 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 47 W 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 46 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 44 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 42 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 40 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 38 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 36 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 35 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 35 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 35 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 35 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 34 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 32 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 30 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 29 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 29 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 30 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 33 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 37 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 42 NE 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 45 NE 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 47 NE 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 49 NE 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 49 NE 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 49 NE 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 48 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 46 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 42 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 38 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 36 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 35 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 35 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 35 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 34 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 33 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 33 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 32 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 31 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 30 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 29 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 30 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 34 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 39 NE 3 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 45 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 50 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 52 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 53 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 54 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 53 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 52 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 48 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 44 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 40 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 39 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 39 NE 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 39 NE 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 38 NE 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 36 NE 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 34 NE 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 33 NE 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 33 NE 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 32 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 31 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 30 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 31 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 35 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 39 E 2 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 45 SW 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 49 SW 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 51 SW 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 52 SW 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 52 SW 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 52 SW 5 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 51 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 48 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 44 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 41 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 38 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 36 SW 8 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 36 SW 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 36 SW 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 35 SW 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 35 SW 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 33 SW 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 32 SW 6 5000 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com