Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 30 27 SW 13 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 24 SW 13 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 26 SW 13 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 25 W 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 25 W 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 26 W 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 28 SE 5 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 30 SE 5 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 34 32 SE 5 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 35 33 E 2 6575 6188 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 36 34 E 2 6679 6188 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 36 33 E 2 6575 6188 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 35 32 E 6 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 33 30 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 28 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 26 E 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 28 25 E 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 24 E 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 24 NE 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 23 NE 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 26 23 NE 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 23 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 22 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 22 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 21 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 21 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 21 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 22 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 25 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 29 E 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 34 E 6 6679 6188 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 39 38 E 6 7197 6782 594 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 43 42 E 6 7556 7283 1095 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 45 44 E 6 7739 7463 1275 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 45 43 E 6 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 44 41 E 6 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 42 39 S 6 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 39 36 S 6 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 37 34 S 6 6679 6188 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 34 31 S 6 6025 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 29 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 28 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 28 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 27 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 28 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 28 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 27 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 26 S 6 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 25 S 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 24 S 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 24 S 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 25 S 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 28 S 7 5827 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 32 S 7 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 39 36 S 9 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 42 39 S 9 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 45 43 S 9 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 46 43 S 9 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 46 43 S 9 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 45 42 S 9 7556 7283 1095 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 44 41 S 10 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 41 38 S 10 7197 6782 594 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 38 35 S 10 6784 6350 162 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 36 33 S 10 6575 6188 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 35 32 S 10 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 35 32 S 10 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 35 32 S 12 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 35 32 S 12 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 35 32 S 12 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 35 32 S 12 6351 6188 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 36 33 S 12 6575 6188 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 38 35 S 12 6784 6350 162 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 38 35 S 13 6784 6350 162 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 38 35 S 13 6784 6350 162 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 37 34 S 13 6679 6188 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 37 34 S 13 6679 6188 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 38 35 S 13 6784 6350 162 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 39 36 S 13 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 41 38 SW 12 7197 6782 594 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 43 40 SW 12 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 45 42 SW 12 7556 7283 1095 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 46 43 SW 12 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 46 43 SW 12 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 46 43 SW 12 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 45 42 SW 15 7556 7283 1095 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 44 41 SW 15 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 43 40 SW 15 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 42 39 SW 15 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 42 39 SW 15 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 42 39 SW 15 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 42 39 SW 10 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 41 38 SW 10 7197 6782 594 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 40 37 SW 10 7107 6678 490 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 39 36 SW 10 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 39 36 SW 10 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 40 37 SW 10 7107 6678 490 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 39 36 S 10 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 39 36 S 10 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 38 35 S 10 6784 6350 162 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 39 36 S 10 6930 6573 385 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 42 39 S 10 7287 6925 737 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 46 43 S 10 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 49 46 S 9 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 50 47 S 9 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 50 47 S 9 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 49 46 S 9 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 48 45 S 9 7928 7552 1364 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 48 45 S 9 7928 7552 1364 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 49 46 S 15 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 49 46 S 15 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 49 46 S 15 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 49 46 S 15 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 49 46 S 15 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 49 46 S 15 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 49 46 S 12 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 47 44 S 12 7739 7463 1275 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 45 42 S 12 7556 7283 1095 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 44 41 S 12 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 44 41 S 12 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 46 43 S 12 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 46 43 S 10 7647 7373 1185 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 44 41 S 10 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 41 38 S 10 7197 6782 594 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 41 38 S 10 7197 6782 594 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 43 40 S 10 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 47 44 S 10 7739 7463 1275 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 50 47 S 9 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 51 48 S 9 9010 7912 1724 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 51 48 S 9 9010 7912 1724 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 50 47 S 9 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 50 47 S 9 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 50 47 S 9 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 50 47 S 13 8391 7734 1546 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 49 46 S 13 8198 7642 1454 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 48 45 S 13 7928 7552 1364 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 47 44 S 13 7739 7463 1275 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 45 42 S 13 7556 7283 1095 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 44 41 S 13 7466 7193 1005 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 43 40 S 13 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 43 40 S 13 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 43 40 S 13 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 43 40 S 13 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 43 40 S 13 7376 7104 916 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 43 40 S 13 7376 7104 916 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com