Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 46 43 E 5 10 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 44 E 5 10 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 43 E 4 8 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 43 E 4 8 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 42 E 4 8 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 41 ENE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 41 ENE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 43 ENE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 49 SE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 SE 5 9 8041 6188 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 64 67 SW 5 9 10195 9017 2829 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 67 71 SW 5 9 13534 10989 4801 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 68 72 SW 5 9 14230 11844 5656 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 70 73 WSW 10 17 14882 12630 6442 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 70 72 WSW 10 17 14230 11844 5656 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 17 12794 10095 3907 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 69 68 WSW 12 20 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 68 65 WSW 12 20 9283 7974 1786 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 65 62 WSW 12 20 8041 6188 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 61 58 W 9 14 5416 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 53 W 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 51 W 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 49 WSW 6 10 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 49 WSW 6 10 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 47 WSW 6 10 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 46 NW 5 8 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 45 NW 5 8 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 44 NW 5 8 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 44 E 4 6 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 44 E 4 6 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 47 E 4 6 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 53 SSE 3 4 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 3 4 5416 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 SSE 3 4 8504 6188 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 65 68 SSW 5 9 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 67 71 SSW 5 9 13534 10989 4801 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 69 74 SSW 5 9 15243 13363 7175 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 71 75 WSW 10 16 15598 14052 7864 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 72 75 WSW 10 16 15598 14052 7864 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 71 72 WSW 10 16 14230 11844 5656 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 70 69 WSW 11 18 11999 9377 3189 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 68 66 WSW 11 18 9388 8479 2291 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 65 62 WSW 11 18 8041 6188 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 62 59 WSW 9 14 5712 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 56 WSW 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 53 WSW 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 50 WSW 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 49 WSW 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 47 WSW 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 46 N 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 45 N 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 44 N 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 44 ENE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 44 ENE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 46 ENE 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 48 SSE 4 6 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 54 SSE 4 6 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 59 SSE 4 6 5712 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 63 SW 6 10 8504 6188 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 66 67 SW 6 10 10195 9017 2829 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 67 68 SW 6 10 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 68 68 SW 11 18 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 68 68 SW 11 18 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 67 66 SW 11 18 9388 8479 2291 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 65 63 WSW 11 17 8504 6188 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 62 59 WSW 11 17 5712 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 57 WSW 11 17 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 54 WNW 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 51 WNW 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 48 WNW 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 46 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 45 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 44 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 43 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 42 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 41 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 41 NNE 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 42 NNE 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 43 NNE 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 46 NE 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 51 NE 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NE 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 60 NE 8 12 6007 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 NE 8 12 9068 6744 556 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 63 65 NE 8 12 9283 7974 1786 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 64 66 NNE 5 9 9388 8479 2291 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 64 65 NNE 5 9 9283 7974 1786 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 64 64 NNE 5 9 9068 6744 556 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 63 61 N 8 11 6771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 58 N 8 11 5416 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 56 N 8 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 54 N 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 51 N 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 49 N 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 47 NNE 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 46 NNE 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 45 NNE 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 44 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 43 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 42 NNE 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 42 N 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 43 N 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 44 N 9 14 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 48 NE 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 53 NE 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 NE 6 11 5712 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 65 NE 6 11 9283 7974 1786 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 65 69 NE 6 11 11999 9377 3189 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 67 71 NE 6 11 13534 10989 4801 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 68 72 NNE 5 9 14230 11844 5656 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 69 71 NNE 5 9 13534 10989 4801 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 69 70 NNE 5 9 12794 10095 3907 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 68 67 W 6 10 10195 9017 2829 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 66 64 W 6 10 9068 6744 556 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 64 61 W 6 10 6771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 58 WSW 6 11 5416 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 55 WSW 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 52 WSW 6 11 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 50 WSW 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 48 WSW 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 47 WSW 10 16 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 46 WSW 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 45 WSW 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 43 WSW 8 12 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 43 SSW 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 44 SSW 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 46 SSW 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 50 SW 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 55 SW 5 9 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 61 SW 5 9 6771 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 65 SW 6 11 9283 7974 1786 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 65 68 SW 6 11 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 66 70 SW 6 11 12794 10095 3907 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 66 69 SW 8 12 11999 9377 3189 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 66 68 SW 8 12 11132 9272 3084 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 66 66 SW 8 12 9388 8479 2291 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 65 64 WSW 11 19 9068 6744 556 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 63 61 WSW 11 19 6771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 57 WSW 11 19 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 54 SW 12 19 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 51 SW 12 19 5279 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 49 SW 12 19 5279 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com