Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 54 51 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 53 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 56 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 60 SE 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 70 SE 2 9165 6188 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 70 72 SW 3 10409 8436 2248 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 72 75 SW 3 12692 10337 4149 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 73 77 SW 3 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 74 77 W 8 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 74 76 W 8 13276 11069 4881 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 73 74 W 8 12358 9735 3547 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 71 69 W 9 8489 6188 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 69 66 W 9 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 64 W 9 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 62 W 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 60 W 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 58 W 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 56 W 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 55 W 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 54 W 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 53 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 52 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 51 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 51 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 53 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 56 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 60 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 70 N 2 9165 6188 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 71 74 E 3 12358 9735 3547 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 73 77 E 3 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 75 80 E 3 13796 13375 7187 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 76 80 SW 5 13796 13375 7187 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 76 79 SW 5 13666 13196 7008 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 75 76 SW 5 13276 11069 4881 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 74 72 SW 6 10409 8436 2248 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 72 69 SW 6 8489 6188 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 70 67 SW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 65 SW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 63 SW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 60 SW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 59 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 58 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 58 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 57 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 55 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 54 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 53 NE 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 54 NE 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 57 NE 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 61 NE 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 65 NE 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 70 NE 5 9165 6188 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 72 75 E 6 12692 10337 4149 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 74 78 E 6 13536 12622 6434 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 76 80 E 6 13796 13375 7187 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 77 81 E 6 14191 13505 7317 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 77 80 E 6 13796 13375 7187 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 77 78 E 6 13536 12622 6434 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 76 75 N 7 12692 10337 4149 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 75 73 N 7 11451 9104 2916 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 74 71 N 7 9806 7459 1271 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 72 69 N 7 8489 6188 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 69 66 N 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 64 N 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 61 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 60 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 59 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 57 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 55 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 53 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 52 NE 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 53 NE 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 56 NE 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 60 NE 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 66 NE 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 72 NE 7 10409 8436 2248 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 73 77 NE 6 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 76 81 NE 6 14191 13505 7317 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 78 83 NE 6 15320 13764 7576 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 80 85 NE 6 18786 14609 8421 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 81 85 NE 6 18786 14609 8421 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 81 83 NE 6 15320 13764 7576 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 80 80 N 7 13796 13375 7187 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 79 77 N 7 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 77 74 N 7 12358 9735 3547 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 74 71 N 7 9806 7459 1271 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 70 67 N 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 63 N 7 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 60 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 59 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 58 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 57 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 55 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 53 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 52 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 53 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 56 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 61 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 66 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 71 N 6 9806 7459 1271 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 72 76 NW 8 13276 11069 4881 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 74 79 NW 8 13666 13196 7008 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 76 82 NW 8 14766 13634 7446 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 78 83 NW 8 15320 13764 7576 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 79 83 NW 8 15320 13764 7576 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 79 81 NW 8 14191 13505 7317 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 78 78 W 12 13536 12622 6434 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 76 74 W 12 12358 9735 3547 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 74 71 W 12 9806 7459 1271 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 71 68 W 12 7522 6188 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 67 64 W 12 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 61 W 12 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 58 NW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 57 NW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 56 NW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 54 NW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 52 NW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 51 NW 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 50 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 51 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 54 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 58 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 N 6 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 72 W 9 10409 8436 2248 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 70 75 W 9 12692 10337 4149 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 72 77 W 9 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 74 79 W 9 13666 13196 7008 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 75 79 W 9 13666 13196 7008 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 75 77 W 9 13406 12292 6104 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 74 74 W 14 12358 9735 3547 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 73 71 W 14 9806 7459 1271 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 71 68 W 14 7522 6188 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 68 65 W 14 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 61 W 14 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 57 W 14 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 54 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 53 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 52 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 51 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 50 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 49 N 5 5778 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com