Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 53 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 54 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 55 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 58 SW 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 62 SW 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 68 SW 3 7087 6188 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 71 73 SW 10 7812 7372 1184 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 74 77 SW 10 8713 8176 1988 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 77 81 SW 10 9436 8817 2629 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 78 81 SW 13 9436 8817 2629 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 79 81 SW 13 9436 8817 2629 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 79 80 SW 13 9138 8704 2516 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 77 76 SW 14 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 75 73 SW 14 7812 7372 1184 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 72 69 SW 14 7233 6188 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 69 66 SW 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 63 SW 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 61 SW 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 59 SW 6 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 58 SW 6 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 56 SW 6 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 55 SW 6 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 53 SW 6 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 52 SW 6 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 51 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 52 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 54 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 57 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 62 SW 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 67 SW 2 6019 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 72 SW 12 7668 7228 1040 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 73 76 SW 12 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 74 78 SW 12 8827 8478 2290 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 76 80 SW 12 9138 8704 2516 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 77 80 SW 12 9138 8704 2516 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 78 79 SW 12 8941 8591 2403 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 77 76 W 13 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 75 73 W 13 7812 7372 1184 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 72 69 W 13 7233 6188 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 69 66 W 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 63 W 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 60 W 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 58 W 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 57 W 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 56 W 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 54 W 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 53 W 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 51 W 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 51 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 52 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 55 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 58 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 63 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 67 NE 2 6019 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 73 S 5 7812 7372 1184 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 74 77 S 5 8713 8176 1988 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 78 82 S 5 9780 8931 2743 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 80 84 S 5 10893 9405 3217 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 82 84 S 5 10893 9405 3217 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 82 83 S 5 10417 9111 2923 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 81 80 W 9 9138 8704 2516 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 78 76 W 9 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 74 71 W 9 7523 7083 895 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 70 67 W 9 6019 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 64 W 9 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 62 W 9 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 61 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 59 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 57 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 56 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 54 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 53 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 53 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 54 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 57 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 60 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 65 NE 2 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 71 NE 2 7523 7083 895 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 75 76 S 5 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 78 80 S 5 9138 8704 2516 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 80 82 S 5 9780 8931 2743 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 82 84 S 5 10893 9405 3217 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 83 84 S 5 10893 9405 3217 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 84 84 S 5 10893 9405 3217 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 83 82 SW 10 9780 8931 2743 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 80 77 SW 10 8713 8176 1988 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 76 73 SW 10 7812 7372 1184 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 72 69 SW 10 7233 6188 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 68 65 SW 10 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 62 SW 10 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 60 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 59 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 58 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 57 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 55 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 54 W 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 53 SE 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 54 SE 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 57 SE 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 61 SE 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 66 SE 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 71 SE 3 7523 7083 895 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 75 76 SW 6 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 79 81 SW 6 9436 8817 2629 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 81 83 SW 6 10417 9111 2923 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 83 85 SW 6 11365 9706 3518 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 83 84 SW 6 10893 9405 3217 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 82 82 SW 6 9780 8931 2743 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 80 79 SW 10 8941 8591 2403 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 77 74 SW 10 8201 7516 1328 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 74 71 SW 10 7523 7083 895 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 72 69 SW 10 7233 6188 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 69 66 SW 10 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 63 SW 10 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 61 SW 7 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 60 SW 7 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 59 SW 7 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 57 SW 7 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 55 SW 7 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 54 SW 7 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 53 S 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 54 S 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 57 S 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 60 S 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 64 S 3 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 69 S 3 7233 6188 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 73 SW 9 7812 7372 1184 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 74 76 SW 9 8599 7805 1617 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 77 79 SW 9 8941 8591 2403 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 78 80 SW 9 9138 8704 2516 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 78 79 SW 9 8941 8591 2403 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 77 77 SW 9 8713 8176 1988 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 76 75 SW 13 8486 7661 1473 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 71 SW 13 7523 7083 895 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 71 68 SW 13 7087 6188 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 69 66 SW 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 62 SW 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 59 SW 13 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 57 W 8 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 56 W 8 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 55 W 8 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 54 W 8 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 52 W 8 5922 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 51 W 8 5922 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com