Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 45 N 5 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 46 N 5 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 47 N 5 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 51 E 5 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 E 5 9270 8789 2601 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 66 69 E 3 9773 9461 3273 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 68 72 E 3 10727 9761 3573 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 70 75 E 3 11590 10666 4478 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 71 75 N 5 11590 10666 4478 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 72 75 N 5 11590 10666 4478 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 74 76 N 5 12044 11009 4821 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 74 73 W 6 11051 9895 3707 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 73 71 W 6 10303 9661 3473 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 70 67 W 6 9572 9260 3072 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 67 64 W 6 9270 8789 2601 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 64 61 W 6 8805 7201 1013 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 62 59 W 6 7595 6188 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 60 57 W 3 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 56 W 3 5988 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 55 W 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 54 NE 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 53 NE 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 51 NE 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 51 E 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 52 E 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 55 E 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 59 E 3 7595 6188 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 9371 8970 2782 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 69 71 E 3 10303 9661 3473 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 72 75 S 7 11590 10666 4478 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 74 78 S 7 13079 11543 5355 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 75 80 S 7 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 76 80 SW 15 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 77 80 SW 15 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 77 79 SW 15 13575 11943 5755 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 76 76 SW 16 12044 11009 4821 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 75 73 SW 16 11051 9895 3707 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 72 69 SW 16 9773 9461 3273 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 69 66 SW 16 9471 9150 2962 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 66 63 SW 16 9167 8440 2252 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 63 60 SW 16 8479 6683 495 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 61 58 W 6 7208 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 60 57 W 6 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 56 W 6 5988 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 55 W 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 54 W 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 52 W 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 52 E 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 53 E 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 55 E 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 60 E 2 8479 6683 495 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 65 65 E 2 9371 8970 2782 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 68 70 E 2 9939 9561 3373 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 71 74 SW 10 11321 10253 4065 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 73 78 SW 10 13079 11543 5355 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 75 80 SW 10 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 76 81 SW 10 14533 12967 6779 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 77 81 SW 10 14533 12967 6779 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 78 80 SW 10 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 77 77 W 12 12569 11277 5089 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 75 73 W 12 11051 9895 3707 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 73 70 W 12 9939 9561 3373 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 70 67 W 12 9572 9260 3072 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 66 63 W 12 9167 8440 2252 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 63 60 W 12 8479 6683 495 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 60 57 N 2 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 56 N 2 5988 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 55 N 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 54 N 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 52 N 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 51 N 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 50 NE 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 51 NE 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 53 NE 2 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 57 NE 2 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 63 NE 2 9167 8440 2252 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 68 70 NE 2 9939 9561 3373 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 72 75 NW 5 11590 10666 4478 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 75 80 NW 5 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 77 82 NW 5 14889 13458 7270 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 79 84 NW 5 15391 14430 8242 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 80 84 NW 5 15391 14430 8242 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 81 83 NW 5 15141 14054 7866 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 80 80 W 7 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 78 76 W 7 12044 11009 4821 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 75 72 W 7 10727 9761 3573 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 72 69 W 7 9773 9461 3273 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 68 65 W 7 9371 8970 2782 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 65 62 W 7 8986 7511 1323 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 62 59 N 6 7595 6188 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 60 57 N 6 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 55 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 54 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 52 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 51 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 51 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 51 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 52 N 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 56 N 6 5988 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 8805 7201 1013 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 6 9673 9361 3173 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 70 74 NE 7 11321 10253 4065 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 74 79 NE 7 13575 11943 5755 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 77 82 NE 7 14889 13458 7270 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 79 84 NE 7 15391 14430 8242 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 80 84 NE 7 15391 14430 8242 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 79 81 NE 7 14533 12967 6779 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 78 78 N 9 13079 11543 5355 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 76 74 N 9 11321 10253 4065 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 74 71 N 9 10303 9661 3473 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 71 68 N 9 9673 9361 3173 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 67 64 N 9 9270 8789 2601 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 63 60 N 9 8479 6683 495 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 60 57 NE 8 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 56 NE 8 5988 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 55 NE 8 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 54 NE 8 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 52 NE 8 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 49 NE 8 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 48 NE 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 49 NE 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 53 NE 6 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 57 NE 6 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 63 NE 6 9167 8440 2252 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 66 68 NE 6 9673 9361 3173 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 74 E 7 11321 10253 4065 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 74 79 E 7 13575 11943 5755 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 78 83 E 7 15141 14054 7866 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 81 86 E 7 15887 15066 8878 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 82 86 E 7 15887 15066 8878 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 81 83 E 7 15141 14054 7866 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 80 80 SW 7 14154 12463 6275 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 79 77 SW 7 12569 11277 5089 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 78 75 SW 7 11590 10666 4478 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 75 72 SW 7 10727 9761 3573 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 70 67 SW 7 9572 9260 3072 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 65 62 SW 7 8986 7511 1323 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 61 58 SW 3 7208 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 60 57 SW 3 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 57 SW 3 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 57 SW 3 6712 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 55 SW 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 52 SW 3 5771 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com