Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Altitude (f): 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 25 22 SW 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 22 SW 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 25 22 SW 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 22 SW 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 25 22 SW 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 25 22 SW 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 25 22 SW 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 25 22 SW 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 25 22 SW 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 25 22 SW 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 25 22 SW 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 25 22 SW 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 24 21 W 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 24 21 W 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 23 20 W 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 20 SW 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 21 18 SW 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 20 17 SW 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 20 17 SW 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 20 17 SW 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 17 SW 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 17 SW 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 17 SW 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 19 16 SW 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 19 16 W 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 19 16 W 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 19 16 W 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 19 16 W 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 17 W 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 20 17 W 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 22 19 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 23 20 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 24 21 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 24 21 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 25 22 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 24 21 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 24 21 N 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 23 20 N 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 21 18 N 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 20 17 N 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 18 15 N 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 18 15 N 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 17 14 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 17 14 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 18 15 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 17 14 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 17 14 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 12 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 11 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 13 10 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 13 10 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 13 10 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 15 12 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 17 14 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 20 18 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 22 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 25 24 NE 7 6953 6188 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 27 26 NE 7 7684 6400 212 White 3
2 PM Mon 27 26 NE 7 7684 6400 212 White 3
3 PM Mon 27 25 NE 7 7462 6188 0 White 2
4 PM Mon 26 23 N 7 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 25 22 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 23 20 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 21 18 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 19 16 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 16 13 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 15 12 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 15 12 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 15 12 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 16 13 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 15 12 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 14 11 NE 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 13 10 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 12 9 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 11 8 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 12 9 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 14 11 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 17 14 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 20 18 NE 8 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 24 23 NE 8 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 26 25 NE 8 7462 6188 0 White 2
1 PM Tue 28 27 NE 8 7906 6938 750 White 4
2 PM Tue 29 27 NE 8 7906 6938 750 White 4
3 PM Tue 28 26 NE 8 7684 6400 212 White 3
4 PM Tue 27 24 NE 6 6953 6188 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 25 22 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 24 21 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 22 19 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 18 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 20 17 NE 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 20 17 N 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 19 16 N 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 19 16 N 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 19 16 N 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 19 16 N 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 20 17 N 5 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 20 17 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 19 16 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 18 15 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 18 15 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 20 17 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 22 19 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 25 22 W 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 27 24 W 6 6953 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 29 27 W 6 7906 6938 750 White 4
1 PM Wed 29 27 W 6 7906 6938 750 White 4
2 PM Wed 29 26 W 6 7684 6400 212 White 3
3 PM Wed 28 25 W 6 7462 6188 0 White 2
4 PM Wed 27 24 SW 6 6953 6188 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 26 23 SW 6 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 26 23 SW 6 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 26 23 SW 6 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 25 22 SW 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 20 SW 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 22 19 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 22 19 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 21 18 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 21 18 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 21 18 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 21 18 N 6 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 20 17 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 16 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 15 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 15 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 18 15 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 20 17 N 7 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 21 18 NE 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 23 21 NE 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 24 22 NE 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 25 23 NE 12 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 25 23 NE 12 6405 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 22 NE 12 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 24 21 NE 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 20 NE 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 21 18 NE 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 20 17 NE 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 19 16 NE 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 19 16 NE 14 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 15 NE 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 17 14 NE 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 16 13 NE 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 15 12 NE 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 14 11 NE 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 14 11 NE 9 5843 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com