Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 52 32 SE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 SE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 SE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 SE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 SE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 34 SE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 35 S 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 36 S 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 36 S 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 36 S 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 36 S 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 36 S 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 35 S 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 35 S 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 S 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 33 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 33 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 33 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 32 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 32 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 35 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 37 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 38 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 39 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 38 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 38 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 37 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 35 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 33 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 31 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 31 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 31 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 31 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 30 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 30 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 E 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 E 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 E 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 30 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 36 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 37 E 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 39 E 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 39 E 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 40 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 39 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 38 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 36 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 SE 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 SE 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 34 SE 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 33 S 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 S 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 33 S 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 SW 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 SW 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 SW 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 34 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 34 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 36 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 37 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 37 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 37 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 37 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 35 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 35 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 35 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 33 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 33 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 35 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 36 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 36 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 35 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 35 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 34 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 34 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 33 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 32 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 33 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 34 S 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 35 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 37 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 37 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 55 37 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 55 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 34 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 34 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 33 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com