Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 38 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 40 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 41 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 46 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 48 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 48 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 49 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 49 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 46 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 44 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 37 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 37 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 36 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 36 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 38 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 40 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 45 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 46 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 48 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 48 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 47 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 46 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 43 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 41 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 39 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 41 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 45 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 47 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 48 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 49 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 48 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 46 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 44 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 41 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 37 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 41 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 47 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 49 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 50 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 51 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 50 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 47 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 44 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 41 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 37 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 36 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 39 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 40 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 45 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 47 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 48 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 48 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 47 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 45 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 43 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 41 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 44 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 46 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 47 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 46 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 46 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 44 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com