Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 46 26 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 26 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 26 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 25 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 28 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 32 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 35 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 37 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 39 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 39 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 38 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 37 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 34 E 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 34 E 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 34 E 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 SE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 SE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 SE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 38 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 40 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 41 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 42 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 43 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 43 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 42 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 42 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 39 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 37 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 38 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 41 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 44 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 45 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 47 E 12 42 200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 66 47 E 12 42 200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 66 47 E 12 42 200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 66 46 E 12 30 200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 65 45 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 43 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 41 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 39 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 38 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 38 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 37 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 37 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 38 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 41 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 43 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 44 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 45 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 46 NE 6 30 200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 65 46 NE 6 30 200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 64 44 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 44 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 42 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 41 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 39 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 38 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 40 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 43 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 43 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 45 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 45 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 45 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 43 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 43 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 41 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 40 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 39 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 36 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 36 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 38 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 40 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 40 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 41 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 43 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 43 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 43 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 42 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 42 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 40 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 39 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 38 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 37 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 37 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com