Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 56 36 SE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 SE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 SE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 34 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 34 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 33 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 33 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 53 33 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 34 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 34 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 35 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 35 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 37 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 36 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 35 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 35 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 35 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 34 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 33 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 33 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 34 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 34 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 34 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 34 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 35 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 34 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 34 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 34 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 36 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 34 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 34 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 35 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 37 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 37 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 36 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 36 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 38 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 39 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 39 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 39 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 39 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 40 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 40 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 40 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 39 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 37 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 38 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 38 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 38 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 37 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 37 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com