Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 69 64 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 61 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 61 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 70 SW 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 81 79 SW 3 3020 4460 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 84 84 SW 5 5600 4460 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 87 89 SW 6 7811 6288 1828 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 89 92 W 6 9521 7760 3300 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 90 94 W 7 10822 8499 4039 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 91 94 W 8 10822 8499 4039 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 92 94 W 8 10822 8499 4039 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 93 93 W 9 10227 8054 3594 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 93 91 W 9 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 93 89 W 9 7811 6288 1828 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 90 85 NW 9 5968 4460 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 85 80 NW 7 3521 4460 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 76 71 NW 7 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 71 66 NE 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 64 NE 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 62 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 61 NE 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 60 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 59 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 59 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 59 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 59 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 59 E 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 68 SW 2 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 77 SW 2 2606 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 82 SW 5 4489 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 85 87 SW 6 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 87 90 SW 6 8107 6644 2184 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 88 92 SW 6 9521 7760 3300 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 89 92 W 6 9521 7760 3300 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 90 92 W 6 9521 7760 3300 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 91 91 W 6 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 91 89 W 7 7811 6288 1828 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 91 87 W 7 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 89 84 W 7 5600 4460 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 84 79 NW 5 3020 4460 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 75 70 NW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 65 NW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 64 N 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 62 N 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 61 N 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 60 NE 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 59 NE 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 59 NE 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 59 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 59 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 59 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 68 SW 2 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 77 SW 2 2606 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 82 SW 2 4489 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 86 86 SW 5 6333 4922 462 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 88 89 SW 5 7811 6288 1828 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 89 90 SW 5 8107 6644 2184 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 90 91 W 6 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 91 91 W 6 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 92 91 W 6 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 92 88 W 6 7354 5928 1468 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 92 87 W 6 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 90 85 W 6 5968 4460 0 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 85 80 W 3 3521 4460 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 76 71 W 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 66 W 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 62 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 61 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 68 S 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 75 S 3 2470 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 83 78 S 3 2718 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 86 84 SW 6 5600 4460 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 88 86 SW 6 6333 4922 462 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 89 87 SW 6 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 90 85 SW 6 5968 4460 0 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 91 86 SW 6 6333 4922 462 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 92 87 SW 6 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 92 88 SW 6 7354 5928 1468 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 92 87 SW 6 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 89 84 SW 6 5600 4460 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 84 79 SW 5 3020 4460 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 75 70 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 65 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 63 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 61 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 60 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 59 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 67 SW 2 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 76 SW 2 2538 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 81 SW 2 4011 4460 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 84 86 SW 6 6333 4922 462 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 86 89 SW 6 7811 6288 1828 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 87 91 SW 6 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 88 91 SW 7 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 89 91 SW 7 8691 7245 2785 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 90 90 SW 7 8107 6644 2184 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 90 88 W 6 7354 5928 1468 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 90 86 W 6 6333 4922 462 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 88 83 W 6 4958 4460 0 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 83 78 SW 5 2718 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 69 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 64 SW 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 63 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 61 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 59 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 58 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 58 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 67 SW 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 76 SW 3 2538 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 81 81 SW 3 4011 4460 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 83 85 SW 6 5968 4460 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 85 88 SW 6 7354 5928 1468 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 86 90 SW 6 8107 6644 2184 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 87 90 SW 7 8107 6644 2184 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 88 90 SW 7 8107 6644 2184 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 89 89 SW 7 7811 6288 1828 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 89 87 W 6 6692 5540 1080 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 89 85 W 6 5968 4460 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 87 82 W 6 4489 4460 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 82 77 W 3 2606 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 68 W 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 63 W 3 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 62 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 60 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 59 E 5 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 58 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 57 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 57 E 6 2267 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com