Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 60 55 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 53 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 51 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 52 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 56 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 60 SE 1 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 67 SW 2 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 72 SW 3 3331 4460 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 76 73 SW 5 3513 4460 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 77 74 SW 6 3694 4460 0 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 77 73 SW 5 3513 4460 0 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 76 71 W 5 3149 4460 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 73 68 W 3 2735 4460 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 67 62 SW 3 1637 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 57 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 57 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 57 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 56 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 55 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 55 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 53 SE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 54 SE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 54 SE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 54 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 54 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 55 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 53 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 57 SE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 60 S 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 65 SW 5 2222 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 67 SW 5 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 68 SW 5 2735 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 73 69 SW 6 2850 4460 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 73 69 SW 6 2850 4460 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 72 67 SW 6 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 64 W 3 2028 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 58 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 52 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 52 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 52 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 51 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 50 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 48 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 49 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 49 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 49 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 49 NE 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 50 NE 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 48 NE 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 49 NE 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 52 NE 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 55 NE 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 60 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 62 W 3 1637 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 63 W 3 1833 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 64 W 6 2028 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 63 W 6 1833 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 62 W 6 1637 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 59 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 54 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 50 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 50 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 50 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 49 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 48 E 6 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 48 E 6 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 48 E 6 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 48 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 48 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 47 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 48 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 52 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 56 NE 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 62 SW 2 1637 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 67 SW 2 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 68 SW 2 2735 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 71 68 SW 2 2735 4460 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 71 68 SW 2 2735 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 70 66 SW 2 2416 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 63 NW 2 1833 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 58 NW 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 52 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 51 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 50 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 51 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 51 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 51 E 5 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 51 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 51 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 50 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 51 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 55 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 60 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 67 SW 2 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 71 SW 2 3149 4460 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 75 73 SW 2 3513 4460 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 76 73 SW 2 3513 4460 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 76 72 SW 2 3331 4460 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 75 70 SW 2 2967 4460 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 72 67 W 2 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 61 W 2 1442 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 56 W 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 56 W 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 56 W 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 55 W 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 54 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 54 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 52 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 53 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 53 E 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 53 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 54 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 52 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 57 NE 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 61 NE 3 1442 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 67 SW 3 2618 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 71 SW 3 3149 4460 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 74 72 SW 3 3331 4460 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 75 72 SW 3 3331 4460 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 75 72 SW 3 3331 4460 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 74 70 SW 3 2967 4460 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 71 66 W 3 2416 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 59 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 53 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 53 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 53 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 52 W 3 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 52 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 51 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 49 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 50 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 50 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 50 E 2 1427 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com