Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 51 46 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 45 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 45 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 51 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 58 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 62 SW 5 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 69 65 SW 5 3405 4460 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 70 67 SW 5 3608 4460 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 71 67 W 6 3608 4460 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 71 67 W 6 3608 4460 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 69 64 W 6 3304 4460 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 66 61 N 1 2554 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 53 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 51 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 49 E 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 48 E 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 48 E 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 47 E 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 E 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 E 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 46 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 45 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 45 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 45 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 44 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 44 E 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 44 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 50 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 58 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 61 W 3 2554 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 65 W 3 3405 4460 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 69 66 W 3 3507 4460 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 70 67 W 6 3608 4460 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 70 66 W 6 3507 4460 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 68 63 W 6 3056 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 65 60 W 3 2340 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 53 W 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 50 W 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 49 W 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 48 W 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 48 W 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 47 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 45 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 45 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 45 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 44 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 44 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 44 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 50 SE 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 56 S 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 61 SW 3 2554 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 63 SW 3 3056 4460 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 68 64 SW 3 3304 4460 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 69 65 SW 3 3405 4460 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 69 65 W 3 3405 4460 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 67 62 N 2 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 64 59 NE 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 53 NE 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 50 NE 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 49 NE 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 48 NE 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 47 NE 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 47 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 47 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 47 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 46 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 45 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 45 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 45 NE 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 44 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 44 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 44 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 49 SE 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 55 S 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 58 SW 2 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 61 SW 2 2554 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 62 W 3 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 67 62 W 3 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 67 62 W 3 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 65 60 N 2 2340 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 57 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 51 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 49 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 47 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 47 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 46 N 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 46 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 NE 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 44 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 43 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 43 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 48 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 55 E 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 59 SW 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 61 SW 3 2554 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 62 SW 3 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 66 63 SW 3 3056 4460 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 66 62 SW 3 2797 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 64 59 SW 3 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 56 E 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 50 E 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 48 E 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 46 E 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 46 E 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 45 E 1 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 45 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 43 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 42 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 42 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 47 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 52 E 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 55 S 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 58 S 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 59 S 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 60 S 6 2340 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 59 S 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 58 S 6 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 55 S 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 49 S 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 46 S 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 45 S 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 45 S 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 44 S 5 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 E 7 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 44 E 7 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 E 7 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 42 E 7 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 E 7 2152 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 42 E 7 2152 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com