Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 50 45 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 50 45 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 49 44 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 49 44 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 44 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 46 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 53 48 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 52 47 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 46 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 45 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 46 41 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 40 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 44 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 44 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 44 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 38 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 43 38 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 42 37 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 37 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 37 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 41 36 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 36 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 37 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 43 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 48 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 53 49 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 50 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 54 50 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 53 48 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 52 47 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 48 43 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 47 42 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 45 40 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 45 40 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 40 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 40 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 45 40 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 45 40 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 40 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 39 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 44 39 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 43 38 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 43 38 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 37 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 37 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 39 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 53 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 59 55 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 60 57 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 61 57 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 56 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 59 54 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 57 52 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 47 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 50 45 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 48 43 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 48 43 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 43 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 48 43 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 43 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 47 42 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 42 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 41 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 40 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 40 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 39 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 39 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 46 41 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 51 46 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 51 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 58 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 59 55 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 60 56 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 59 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 57 52 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 49 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 42 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 45 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 45 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 42 37 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 41 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 41 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 35 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 35 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 41 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 45 40 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 44 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 49 46 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 46 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 47 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 49 45 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 48 43 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 47 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 43 38 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 42 37 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 40 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 40 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 40 35 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 35 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 40 35 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 40 35 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 40 35 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 39 34 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 39 34 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 38 33 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 38 33 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 37 32 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 37 32 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 39 34 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 46 41 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 52 48 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 54 51 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 55 52 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 56 53 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 55 51 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 54 49 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 52 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 47 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 46 41 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 44 39 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 44 39 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 44 39 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 44 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 44 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 44 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 43 38 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 43 38 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 42 37 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com