Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 3 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 NW 7 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 NW 8 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 48 NW 7 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 N 9 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 52 54 N 12 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 53 54 N 14 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 53 53 N 14 3531 2400 250 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 52 52 N 14 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 51 51 N 12 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 51 51 N 15 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 49 49 N 18 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 49 49 N 18 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 48 48 N 18 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 N 21 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 21 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 20 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 21 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 18 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 20 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 22 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 22 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 22 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 25 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 25 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NE 25 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 N 24 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 N 24 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 50 52 N 24 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 52 54 N 25 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 54 55 N 25 3780 3400 1250 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 54 54 N 25 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 54 54 N 25 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 53 53 N 25 3531 2400 250 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 25 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 50 50 N 28 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 28 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 49 49 N 28 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 48 48 NE 16 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NE 16 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NE 16 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 NE 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NE 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 E 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 E 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 E 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 S 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 48 SW 3 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 SW 3 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 53 55 SW 3 3780 3400 1250 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 55 57 SW 2 4029 3648 1498 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 56 57 SW 2 4029 3648 1498 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 57 57 SW 2 4029 3648 1498 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 56 56 N 1 3905 3524 1374 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 54 54 N 1 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 1 3531 2400 250 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 2 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 50 50 E 2 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 50 50 SE 2 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 49 49 SE 2 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 SE 2 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 48 48 SE 2 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SE 2 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 2 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 E 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 E 6 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NE 3 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 52 54 NE 3 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 3 3905 3524 1374 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 56 58 N 2 4154 3772 1622 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 58 59 N 2 4357 3896 1746 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 58 58 N 2 4154 3772 1622 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 57 57 N 3 4029 3648 1498 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 3905 3524 1374 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 3531 2400 250 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 3 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 50 50 NE 3 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 3 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 50 50 E 5 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 49 49 E 5 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 E 5 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 NE 3 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 53 54 NE 3 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 56 57 NE 3 4029 3648 1498 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 58 59 N 2 4357 3896 1746 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 59 60 N 2 4849 4020 1870 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 59 59 N 2 4357 3896 1746 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 58 58 NW 3 4154 3772 1622 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 3 3905 3524 1374 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 53 53 N 3 3531 2400 250 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 52 52 N 3 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 52 52 N 3 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 6 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 6 1168 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 1132 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 N 5 2098 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 51 N 5 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 52 53 N 5 3531 2400 250 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 54 55 NW 6 3780 3400 1250 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 55 56 NW 6 3905 3524 1374 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 3780 3400 1250 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 3780 3400 1250 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 3656 2977 827 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 3407 2248 98 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 3001 2150 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 50 50 NW 5 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 50 50 N 6 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 50 50 N 6 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 6 2403 2150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 6 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 6 2250 2150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 6 2250 2150 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com