Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 71 71 S 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 S 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 S 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 77 SW 6 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 81 SW 6 2130 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 80 85 W 9 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 81 88 W 9 3126 2581 431 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 83 90 W 9 3739 2852 702 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 85 92 W 10 5095 3411 1261 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 84 90 W 10 3739 2852 702 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 83 87 W 10 2856 2468 318 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 82 85 W 10 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 79 80 W 10 2017 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 76 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 80 SW 10 2017 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 76 82 SW 10 2244 2150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 78 85 SW 10 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 79 86 SW 10 2713 2355 205 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 79 85 SW 10 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 78 82 SW 10 2244 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 77 79 SW 9 1949 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 75 76 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 70 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 70 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 75 S 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 78 SW 10 1887 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 74 80 SW 10 2017 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 76 83 SW 10 2357 2150 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 77 84 SW 10 2470 2150 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 77 83 SW 10 2357 2150 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 76 80 SW 10 2017 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 75 77 SW 9 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 73 74 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 S 7 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 74 S 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 77 W 6 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 80 W 6 2017 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 83 W 6 2357 2150 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 78 85 W 6 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 77 83 W 6 2357 2150 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 77 81 W 6 2130 2150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 75 77 W 9 1825 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 74 75 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 W 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 SW 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 SW 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 SW 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 70 SW 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 75 SW 3 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 79 W 8 1949 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 75 81 W 8 2130 2150 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 78 85 W 8 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 79 85 W 8 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 79 84 W 8 2470 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 78 82 W 8 2244 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 77 79 W 9 1949 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 74 75 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SW 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 SW 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 SW 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 74 SW 5 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 78 W 8 1887 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 80 W 8 2017 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 77 84 W 8 2470 2150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 78 85 W 8 2584 2242 92 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 78 84 W 8 2470 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 77 81 W 8 2130 2150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 76 78 W 9 1887 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 75 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 1765 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com