Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SSW 18 26 3394 3394 1244 White 5
1 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 16 21 3176 2531 381 White 4
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 13 20 3176 2531 381 White 4
3 AM Thu 47 47 W 13 20 2739 2150 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 46 46 W 13 19 2517 2150 0 White 1
5 AM Thu 45 45 W 11 17 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 9 12 499 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 9 11 499 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 11 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 W 8 11 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 46 W 8 10 2517 2150 0 White 1
11 AM Thu 46 46 W 8 10 2517 2150 0 White 1
12 Noon Thu 48 51 W 9 11 3610 3610 1460 White 6
1 PM Thu 49 50 W 9 12 3394 3394 1244 White 5
2 PM Thu 50 51 W 10 13 3610 3610 1460 White 6
3 PM Thu 51 52 W 11 13 3827 3827 1677 White 7
4 PM Thu 50 50 W 12 14 3394 3394 1244 White 5
5 PM Thu 49 49 W 13 16 3176 2531 381 White 4
6 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 13 17 2959 2150 0 White 3
7 PM Thu 46 46 WNW 12 16 2517 2150 0 White 1
8 PM Thu 46 46 WNW 10 13 2517 2150 0 White 1
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 8 10 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 6 6 499 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 5 6 499 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 S 5 6 499 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 S 5 6 499 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 5 6 499 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 SSE 6 8 499 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 SSE 6 9 499 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 S 8 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 10 12 499 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 13 16 499 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 17 21 499 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 19 25 499 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 23 29 499 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 25 34 499 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 45 SSE 25 34 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 45 45 SSE 25 34 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 46 SSE 26 39 2517 2150 0 White 1
3 PM Fri 46 46 SSE 26 39 2517 2150 0 White 1
4 PM Fri 45 45 SSE 26 39 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 45 45 SSE 26 39 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 SSE 26 39 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 SSE 26 39 2517 2150 0 White 1
8 PM Fri 47 47 SSE 28 43 2739 2150 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 47 47 SSE 28 43 2739 2150 0 White 2
10 PM Fri 47 47 SSE 28 43 2739 2150 0 White 2
11 PM Fri 47 47 SE 24 36 2739 2150 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SE 24 36 2517 2150 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 46 46 SE 24 36 2517 2150 0 White 1
2 AM Sat 46 46 SE 20 31 2517 2150 0 White 1
3 AM Sat 45 45 SE 20 31 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SE 20 31 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 ESE 19 29 499 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 19 29 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 19 29 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 ESE 18 25 2517 2150 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 47 47 ESE 18 25 2739 2150 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 48 48 ESE 18 25 2959 2150 0 White 3
11 AM Sat 49 49 ESE 18 24 3176 2531 381 White 4
12 Noon Sat 50 50 ESE 18 24 3394 3394 1244 White 5
1 PM Sat 51 52 ESE 18 24 3827 3827 1677 White 7
2 PM Sat 51 51 E 13 18 3610 3610 1460 White 6
3 PM Sat 50 50 E 13 18 3394 3394 1244 White 5
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 13 18 3176 2531 381 White 4
5 PM Sat 48 48 NE 12 19 2959 2150 0 White 3
6 PM Sat 48 48 NE 12 19 2959 2150 0 White 3
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 12 19 2739 2150 0 White 2
8 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 11 17 2517 2150 0 White 1
9 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 11 17 2517 2150 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 11 17 2517 2150 0 White 1
11 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 10 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 E 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 5 8 499 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 ESE 5 8 499 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 ESE 5 8 499 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 9 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SE 5 9 2517 2150 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 48 49 SE 5 9 3176 2531 381 White 4
11 AM Sun 49 52 W 8 11 3827 3827 1677 White 7
12 Noon Sun 50 53 W 8 11 4041 4041 1891 White 8
1 PM Sun 51 55 W 8 11 4469 4469 2319 White 10
2 PM Sun 52 55 WNW 10 14 4469 4469 2319 White 10
3 PM Sun 53 56 WNW 10 14 4682 4682 2532 White 11
4 PM Sun 53 55 WNW 10 14 4469 4469 2319 White 10
5 PM Sun 52 53 WNW 12 17 4041 4041 1891 White 8
6 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 12 17 3827 3827 1677 White 7
7 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 12 17 3610 3610 1460 White 6
8 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 10 16 3394 3394 1244 White 5
9 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 10 16 3176 2531 381 White 4
10 PM Sun 48 48 WNW 10 16 2959 2150 0 White 3
11 PM Sun 47 47 W 6 10 2739 2150 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 6 10 2517 2150 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 10 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 10 499 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 9 499 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 9 499 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 9 2012 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 9 2517 2150 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 48 49 NE 6 9 3176 2531 381 White 4
10 AM Mon 50 52 NE 6 9 3827 3827 1677 White 7
11 AM Mon 52 56 NNW 9 12 4682 4682 2532 White 11
12 Noon Mon 55 61 NNW 9 12 5753 5753 3603 White 16
1 PM Mon 57 63 NNW 9 12 6172 6172 4022 White 18
2 PM Mon 58 64 NNW 11 17 6380 6380 4230 White 19
3 PM Mon 59 64 NNW 11 17 6380 6380 4230 White 19
4 PM Mon 59 62 NNW 11 17 5963 5963 3813 White 17
5 PM Mon 59 60 NNW 12 18 5542 5542 3392 White 15
6 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 12 18 5119 5119 2969 White 13
7 PM Mon 56 56 NNW 12 18 4682 4682 2532 White 11
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 9 13 4255 4255 2105 White 9
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 9 13 4041 4041 1891 White 8
10 PM Mon 51 51 NW 9 13 3610 3610 1460 White 6
11 PM Mon 50 50 S 6 9 3394 3394 1244 White 5
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 6 9 3176 2531 381 White 4
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 6 9 3176 2531 381 White 4
2 AM Tue 48 48 SE 6 10 2959 2150 0 White 3
3 AM Tue 48 48 SE 6 10 2959 2150 0 White 3
4 AM Tue 47 47 SE 6 10 2739 2150 0 White 2
5 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 4 8 2739 2150 0 White 2
6 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 4 8 2739 2150 0 White 2
7 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 4 8 2959 2150 0 White 3
8 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 5 9 3394 3394 1244 White 5
9 AM Tue 52 53 ESE 5 9 4041 4041 1891 White 8
10 AM Tue 55 57 ESE 5 9 4908 4908 2758 White 12
11 AM Tue 58 62 NW 6 10 5963 5963 3813 White 17
12 Noon Tue 60 66 NW 6 10 6798 6798 4648 White 21
1 PM Tue 61 67 NW 6 10 7005 7005 4855 White 22
2 PM Tue 62 68 NW 9 13 7209 7209 5059 White 23
3 PM Tue 64 69 NW 9 13 7414 7414 5264 White 24
4 PM Tue 64 67 NW 9 13 7005 7005 4855 White 22
5 PM Tue 64 65 NW 11 16 6590 6590 4440 White 20
6 PM Tue 62 62 NW 11 16 5963 5963 3813 White 17
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 11 16 5542 5542 3392 White 15
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 9 13 5119 5119 2969 White 13
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 9 13 4682 4682 2532 White 11
10 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 13 4255 4255 2105 White 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]