Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 SW 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SW 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SW 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 NW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 68 NW 7 2153 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 68 72 NW 7 4226 2711 561 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 70 74 NW 7 4610 3709 1559 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 71 75 NW 10 4704 4189 2039 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 72 75 NW 10 4704 4189 2039 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 72 74 NW 10 4610 3709 1559 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 70 70 NW 10 3239 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 65 65 NW 10 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 10 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 NW 9 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 NW 9 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 NW 9 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 N 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 SE 1 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SE 1 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SE 1 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SE 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 S 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 S 2 1614 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 70 W 3 3239 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 70 74 W 3 4610 3709 1559 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 72 76 W 3 4845 4455 2305 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 73 77 W 7 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 74 77 W 7 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 74 76 W 7 4845 4455 2305 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 72 72 NW 6 4226 2711 561 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 67 67 NW 6 1770 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 E 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 E 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 E 3 1770 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 71 NW 8 3739 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 70 74 NW 8 4610 3709 1559 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 72 76 NW 8 4845 4455 2305 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 73 77 NW 8 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 74 77 NW 8 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 74 76 NW 8 4845 4455 2305 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 72 72 NW 10 4226 2711 561 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 67 67 NW 10 1770 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 NW 10 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 10 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 NW 10 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 NW 10 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 64 N 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 67 N 5 1770 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 73 E 6 4475 3216 1066 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 72 76 E 6 4845 4455 2305 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 75 79 E 6 5601 4822 2672 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 76 80 E 6 6405 5056 2906 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 77 80 E 6 6405 5056 2906 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 77 79 E 6 5601 4822 2672 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 75 75 NW 6 4704 4189 2039 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 69 69 NW 6 2727 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 1614 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 65 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 SW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 SW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 SW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SW 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 NE 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 NE 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 NE 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 68 NE 3 2153 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 69 72 W 7 4226 2711 561 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 75 W 7 4704 4189 2039 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 74 78 W 7 5342 4695 2545 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 74 78 W 7 5342 4695 2545 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 75 78 W 7 5342 4695 2545 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 76 78 W 7 5342 4695 2545 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 73 73 W 6 4475 3216 1066 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 6 2153 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 W 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 67 W 5 1770 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 71 W 7 3739 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 70 73 W 7 4475 3216 1066 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 73 77 W 7 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 74 77 W 7 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 74 77 W 7 5082 4602 2452 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 75 76 W 7 4845 4455 2305 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 4475 3216 1066 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 2153 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 6 1463 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com