Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 52 52 S 16 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 S 16 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 16 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 S 23 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 S 23 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 S 23 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 53 S 23 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 54 S 23 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 55 S 23 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 55 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 55 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 S 14 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 14 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 S 14 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 S 10 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 S 10 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 S 10 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 S 12 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 53 S 13 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 54 S 13 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 57 S 13 1489 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 56 S 13 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 56 S 13 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 56 S 13 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 S 8 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 S 8 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 S 8 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 S 8 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 S 8 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 S 8 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 S 15 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 S 15 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 S 15 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 S 15 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 S 15 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 S 15 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 54 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 55 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 56 S 21 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 56 S 21 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 56 S 21 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 S 21 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 S 21 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 S 17 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 52 W 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 W 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 53 W 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 NW 6 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 2 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 2 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 W 2 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 2 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 2 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 2 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 1 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 1 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 1 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 1 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 SW 1 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 SW 1 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 NW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 55 NW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 56 NW 5 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 55 NW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 NW 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 N 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 E 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 56 E 3 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 59 E 3 1727 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 60 E 3 2153 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 60 E 3 2153 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 59 E 3 1727 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 NE 3 1370 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 NE 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 NE 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 NE 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 NE 3 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 1332 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com