Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 8 1398 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 N 8 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 8 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NW 7 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 NW 7 1862 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 NW 7 2551 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 59 W 9 3130 2318 168 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 60 61 W 9 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 62 64 W 9 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 63 66 W 13 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 63 66 W 13 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 63 64 W 13 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 3130 2318 168 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 12 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 3 2322 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 3 1862 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 3 1630 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 2 1398 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 2 1398 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 2 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NW 3 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NW 3 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 3 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NW 7 1312 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 NW 7 1630 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NW 7 2551 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 NW 7 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 60 63 NW 7 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 62 65 NW 7 4212 3444 1294 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 64 68 W 10 5667 4180 2030 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 64 67 W 10 5190 3773 1623 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 63 64 W 10 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 62 62 NW 12 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 61 61 NW 12 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 12 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 61 61 NW 8 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 60 60 NW 8 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 59 59 NW 8 3130 2318 168 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 58 58 NW 5 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 5 2551 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 NW 5 2322 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 N 6 2092 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 N 6 2092 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 N 6 1862 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 1862 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 N 7 1630 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 1398 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 1630 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 1862 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 N 8 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 60 63 N 9 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 63 66 N 9 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 65 69 N 9 6130 4598 2448 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 66 69 NW 12 6130 4598 2448 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 67 70 NW 12 6582 5138 2988 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 67 68 NW 12 5667 4180 2030 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 10 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 10 4212 3444 1294 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 63 63 NW 10 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 9 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 9 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 59 59 N 9 3130 2318 168 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 59 59 N 12 3130 2318 168 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 12 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 12 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 21 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 21 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 21 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 24 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 24 2551 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 24 2322 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 7 2322 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 N 7 2959 2150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 61 62 N 7 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 64 67 N 9 5190 3773 1623 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 68 72 N 9 7293 6066 3916 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 70 74 N 9 7783 6949 4799 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 72 76 N 9 8268 7493 5343 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 74 77 N 9 8509 7735 5585 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 75 76 N 9 8268 7493 5343 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 74 74 NW 8 7783 6949 4799 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 7293 6066 3916 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 70 70 NW 8 6582 5138 2988 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 67 67 NW 5 5190 3773 1623 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 66 66 NW 5 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 65 65 NW 5 4212 3444 1294 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 3 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 NW 3 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 63 63 NW 3 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 63 63 NE 5 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 62 62 NE 5 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 62 62 NE 5 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 3130 2318 168 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 62 62 NE 6 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 66 67 NE 6 5190 3773 1623 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 69 72 NW 8 7293 6066 3916 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 72 76 NW 8 8268 7493 5343 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 74 78 NW 8 8742 7976 5826 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 76 80 NW 9 9279 8455 6305 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 77 80 NW 9 9279 8455 6305 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 78 79 NW 9 8957 8216 6066 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 77 77 NW 9 8509 7735 5585 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 75 75 NW 9 8026 7249 5099 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 72 72 NW 9 7293 6066 3916 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 70 70 N 5 6582 5138 2988 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 5 5667 4180 2030 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 67 67 N 5 5190 3773 1623 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 3 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 3 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 3 4212 3444 1294 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 60 60 N 7 3236 2545 395 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 61 61 N 7 3343 2941 791 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 64 65 N 7 4212 3444 1294 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 68 71 N 10 7024 5608 3458 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 71 75 N 10 8026 7249 5099 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 74 78 N 10 8742 7976 5826 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 76 80 N 10 9279 8455 6305 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 77 80 N 10 9279 8455 6305 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 77 78 N 10 8742 7976 5826 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 76 76 N 9 8268 7493 5343 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 74 74 N 9 7783 6949 4799 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 72 72 N 9 7293 6066 3916 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 70 70 N 6 6582 5138 2988 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 6 5667 4180 2030 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 66 66 N 6 4653 3550 1400 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 4212 3444 1294 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 N 5 3799 3338 1188 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 63 63 N 5 3556 3231 1081 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 62 62 N 7 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 62 62 N 7 3449 3125 975 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 3343 2941 791 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com