Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 34 34 N 10 1611 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 N 10 1611 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 N 10 1611 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 N 15 1611 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 N 15 2086 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 39 N 15 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 43 N 18 6546 3680 1530 White 4
11 AM Fri 43 46 N 18 7176 7051 4901 White 7
12 Noon Fri 45 49 N 18 7794 7794 5644 White 10
1 PM Fri 46 50 N 16 8000 8000 5850 White 11
2 PM Fri 47 50 N 16 8000 8000 5850 White 11
3 PM Fri 46 48 N 16 7590 7590 5440 White 9
4 PM Fri 44 45 NW 15 6967 5264 3114 White 6
5 PM Fri 42 42 NW 15 6335 2580 430 White 3
6 PM Fri 40 40 NW 15 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 39 39 NW 12 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 NW 12 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 NW 12 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 N 9 2086 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 N 9 2086 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 N 9 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 SW 3 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SW 3 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 SW 3 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 S 7 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 S 7 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 1919 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 SW 7 1919 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SW 7 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 41 42 SW 7 6335 2580 430 White 3
10 AM Sat 44 46 NW 15 7176 7051 4901 White 7
11 AM Sat 45 47 NW 15 7383 7303 5153 White 8
12 Noon Sat 47 50 NW 15 8000 8000 5850 White 11
1 PM Sat 48 51 NW 17 8205 8205 6055 White 12
2 PM Sat 49 51 NW 17 8205 8205 6055 White 12
3 PM Sat 48 49 NW 17 7794 7794 5644 White 10
4 PM Sat 46 46 NW 18 7176 7051 4901 White 7
5 PM Sat 44 44 NW 18 6756 4415 2265 White 5
6 PM Sat 42 42 NW 18 6335 2580 430 White 3
7 PM Sat 41 41 NW 18 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 41 41 NW 18 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 40 40 NW 18 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 40 40 N 16 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 16 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 16 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 16 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 16 6335 2580 430 White 3
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 16 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 40 40 N 16 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 16 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 16 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 N 16 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 N 16 6335 2580 430 White 3
9 AM Sun 44 45 N 16 6967 5264 3114 White 6
10 AM Sun 46 48 NW 13 7590 7590 5440 White 9
11 AM Sun 48 50 NW 13 8000 8000 5850 White 11
12 Noon Sun 50 53 NW 13 8613 8613 6463 White 14
1 PM Sun 51 54 NW 13 8817 8817 6667 White 15
2 PM Sun 52 54 NW 13 8817 8817 6667 White 15
3 PM Sun 51 52 NW 13 8410 8410 6260 White 13
4 PM Sun 49 49 NW 12 7794 7794 5644 White 10
5 PM Sun 47 47 NW 12 7383 7303 5153 White 8
6 PM Sun 45 45 NW 12 6967 5264 3114 White 6
7 PM Sun 44 44 NW 12 6756 4415 2265 White 5
8 PM Sun 43 43 NW 12 6546 3680 1530 White 4
9 PM Sun 43 43 NW 12 6546 3680 1530 White 4
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 9 6335 2580 430 White 3
11 PM Sun 42 42 W 9 6335 2580 430 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 9 6756 4415 2265 White 5
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 6756 4415 2265 White 5
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 6756 4415 2265 White 5
3 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 6756 4415 2265 White 5
4 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 6546 3680 1530 White 4
5 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 6546 3680 1530 White 4
6 AM Mon 41 41 SW 3 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 41 41 SW 3 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 6546 3680 1530 White 4
9 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 6546 3680 1530 White 4
10 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 6756 4415 2265 White 5
11 AM Mon 44 45 W 13 6967 5264 3114 White 6
12 Noon Mon 45 46 W 13 7176 7051 4901 White 7
1 PM Mon 45 46 W 13 7176 7051 4901 White 7
2 PM Mon 46 47 W 13 7383 7303 5153 White 8
3 PM Mon 45 45 W 13 6967 5264 3114 White 6
4 PM Mon 43 43 NW 13 6546 3680 1530 White 4
5 PM Mon 41 41 NW 13 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 39 39 NW 13 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 NW 13 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 NW 13 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 NW 13 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 N 21 2086 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 N 21 2086 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 N 21 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 21 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 N 21 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 N 21 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 16 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 16 2253 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 N 16 1919 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 16 1919 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 16 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 41 41 N 16 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 44 45 N 14 6967 5264 3114 White 6
11 AM Tue 46 48 N 14 7590 7590 5440 White 9
12 Noon Tue 48 50 N 14 8000 8000 5850 White 11
1 PM Tue 48 50 N 14 8000 8000 5850 White 11
2 PM Tue 50 52 N 14 8410 8410 6260 White 13
3 PM Tue 49 50 N 14 8000 8000 5850 White 11
4 PM Tue 47 47 NW 9 7383 7303 5153 White 8
5 PM Tue 44 44 NW 9 6756 4415 2265 White 5
6 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 6335 2580 430 White 3
7 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 6335 2580 430 White 3
8 PM Tue 41 41 NW 9 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 41 41 NW 9 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 40 40 W 6 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 40 40 W 6 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 W 6 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 41 41 W 6 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 42 42 W 6 6335 2580 430 White 3
3 AM Wed 41 41 W 6 4471 2250 100 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 3756 2150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 2597 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 6335 2580 430 White 3
9 AM Wed 43 44 NW 6 6756 4415 2265 White 5
10 AM Wed 46 47 NW 8 7383 7303 5153 White 8
11 AM Wed 47 49 NW 8 7794 7794 5644 White 10
12 Noon Wed 48 50 NW 8 8000 8000 5850 White 11
1 PM Wed 49 51 NW 8 8205 8205 6055 White 12
2 PM Wed 50 52 NW 8 8410 8410 6260 White 13
3 PM Wed 50 51 NW 8 8205 8205 6055 White 12
4 PM Wed 48 48 W 13 7590 7590 5440 White 9
5 PM Wed 46 46 W 13 7176 7051 4901 White 7
6 PM Wed 45 45 W 13 6967 5264 3114 White 6
7 PM Wed 44 44 W 13 6756 4415 2265 White 5
8 PM Wed 44 44 W 13 6756 4415 2265 White 5
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 13 6756 4415 2265 White 5
10 PM Wed 43 43 W 6 6546 3680 1530 White 4
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 6 6546 3680 1530 White 4
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 W 6 6756 4415 2265 White 5
1 AM Thu 44 44 W 6 6756 4415 2265 White 5
2 AM Thu 45 45 W 6 6967 5264 3114 White 6
3 AM Thu 44 44 W 6 6756 4415 2265 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com