Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 62 62 W 3 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 62 62 W 3 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
7 AM Tue 64 64 W 3 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
8 AM Tue 66 67 W 5 2740 2666 516 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 69 72 W 5 2824 2773 623 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 72 77 W 5 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 74 81 W 9 6762 4553 2403 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 76 84 W 9 8370 6368 4218 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 78 86 W 9 8927 7372 5222 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 79 87 W 13 9098 8265 6115 Blue 38
3 PM Tue 79 86 W 13 8927 7372 5222 Blue 37
4 PM Tue 78 83 W 13 7410 5985 3835 Blue 34
5 PM Tue 76 79 NW 15 5522 2939 789 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 74 75 NW 15 2874 2823 673 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 71 71 NW 15 2807 2756 606 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 2723 2637 487 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 64 64 NW 7 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 7 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 5 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 6 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 64 64 W 6 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 64 64 W 6 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
7 AM Wed 65 65 W 5 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 68 69 W 6 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 70 72 W 6 2824 2773 623 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 72 76 W 6 2942 2840 690 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 74 80 W 9 6037 3085 935 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 76 83 W 9 7410 5985 3835 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 78 86 W 9 8927 7372 5222 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 78 85 W 12 8755 7162 5012 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 79 85 W 12 8755 7162 5012 Blue 36
4 PM Wed 78 83 W 12 7410 5985 3835 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 76 79 W 13 5522 2939 789 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 73 74 W 13 2857 2806 656 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 13 2807 2756 606 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 13 2723 2637 487 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
2 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
5 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
6 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
7 AM Thu 66 66 W 5 2723 2637 487 Blue 17
8 AM Thu 68 69 W 5 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 71 73 W 5 2840 2790 640 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 73 77 W 5 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 76 82 W 8 7199 5430 3280 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 78 86 W 8 8927 7372 5222 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 80 88 W 8 9227 8716 6566 Blue 39
2 PM Thu 80 88 W 8 9227 8716 6566 Blue 39
3 PM Thu 81 88 W 8 9227 8716 6566 Blue 39
4 PM Thu 80 85 W 8 8755 7162 5012 Blue 36
5 PM Thu 78 81 NW 9 6762 4553 2403 Blue 32
6 PM Thu 76 77 NW 9 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 72 72 NW 9 2824 2773 623 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 68 68 NW 9 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 66 66 NW 9 2723 2637 487 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 65 65 NW 9 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 5 2723 2637 487 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 67 67 W 5 2740 2666 516 Blue 18
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 5 2723 2637 487 Blue 17
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 5 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
4 AM Fri 65 65 W 5 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
7 AM Fri 68 68 W 3 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
8 AM Fri 71 72 W 3 2824 2773 623 Blue 23
9 AM Fri 74 77 W 3 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
10 AM Fri 77 82 W 3 7199 5430 3280 Blue 33
11 AM Fri 80 87 NW 9 9098 8265 6115 Blue 38
12 Noon Fri 82 90 NW 9 9417 9057 6907 Blue 41
1 PM Fri 85 93 NW 9 9704 9394 7244 Blue 44
2 PM Fri 85 93 NW 9 9704 9394 7244 Blue 44
3 PM Fri 86 93 NW 9 9704 9394 7244 Blue 44
4 PM Fri 85 90 NW 9 9417 9057 6907 Blue 41
5 PM Fri 83 86 NW 12 8927 7372 5222 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 80 81 NW 12 6762 4553 2403 Blue 32
7 PM Fri 77 77 NW 12 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
8 PM Fri 72 72 NW 12 2824 2773 623 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 70 70 NW 12 2790 2739 589 Blue 21
10 PM Fri 69 69 NW 12 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
11 PM Fri 69 69 W 3 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 W 3 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
1 AM Sat 70 70 W 3 2790 2739 589 Blue 21
2 AM Sat 69 69 W 3 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 69 69 W 3 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
4 AM Sat 69 69 W 3 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
5 AM Sat 69 69 SE 2 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
6 AM Sat 69 69 SE 2 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
7 AM Sat 71 71 SE 2 2807 2756 606 Blue 22
8 AM Sat 74 75 SE 2 2874 2823 673 Blue 26
9 AM Sat 77 80 SE 2 6037 3085 935 Blue 31
10 AM Sat 80 85 SE 2 8755 7162 5012 Blue 36
11 AM Sat 83 90 NW 9 9417 9057 6907 Blue 41
12 Noon Sat 85 93 NW 9 9704 9394 7244 Blue 44
1 PM Sat 87 95 NW 9 10013 9584 7434 Blue 46
2 PM Sat 88 96 NW 9 10361 9679 7529 Blue 47
3 PM Sat 88 95 NW 9 10013 9584 7434 Blue 46
4 PM Sat 87 92 NW 9 9608 9299 7149 Blue 43
5 PM Sat 85 88 NW 10 9227 8716 6566 Blue 39
6 PM Sat 81 82 NW 10 7199 5430 3280 Blue 33
7 PM Sat 77 77 NW 10 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
8 PM Sat 71 71 NW 10 2807 2756 606 Blue 22
9 PM Sat 69 69 NW 10 2773 2723 573 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 10 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 5 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 5 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
1 AM Sun 70 70 W 5 2790 2739 589 Blue 21
2 AM Sun 68 68 W 5 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 68 68 W 5 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
4 AM Sun 68 68 W 5 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
5 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
6 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 2757 2696 546 Blue 19
7 AM Sun 70 70 S 6 2790 2739 589 Blue 21
8 AM Sun 72 73 S 6 2840 2790 640 Blue 24
9 AM Sun 74 77 S 6 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
10 AM Sun 76 81 S 6 6762 4553 2403 Blue 32
11 AM Sun 79 86 W 8 8927 7372 5222 Blue 37
12 Noon Sun 81 89 W 8 9322 8887 6737 Blue 40
1 PM Sun 82 90 W 8 9417 9057 6907 Blue 41
2 PM Sun 83 91 W 8 9513 9203 7053 Blue 42
3 PM Sun 84 91 W 8 9513 9203 7053 Blue 42
4 PM Sun 82 87 W 8 9098 8265 6115 Blue 38
5 PM Sun 80 83 W 10 7410 5985 3835 Blue 34
6 PM Sun 76 77 W 10 3106 2856 706 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 10 2824 2773 623 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 2696 2605 455 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 9 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 64 64 SW 9 2667 2374 224 Blue 15
2 AM Mon 62 62 SW 9 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 62 62 SW 9 2606 2235 85 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 9 2606 2235 85 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com