Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 62 62 S 6 1694 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 S 6 1694 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 S 6 1694 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 S 8 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 S 8 1795 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 72 S 8 1875 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 72 77 W 7 2238 2150 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 75 82 W 7 2997 2603 453 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 78 85 W 7 3491 2993 843 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 80 86 W 8 3984 3101 951 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 81 87 W 8 4688 3213 1063 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 81 85 W 8 3491 2993 843 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 80 82 W 7 2997 2603 453 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 79 80 W 7 2779 2237 87 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 7 2133 2150 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 72 72 NW 3 1875 2150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 3 1829 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 3 1795 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 W 1 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 W 1 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 W 1 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 S 2 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 S 2 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 S 2 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 S 2 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 S 2 1694 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 2 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 S 6 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 S 6 1848 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 75 S 6 2027 2150 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 75 80 SW 9 2779 2237 87 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 78 85 SW 9 3491 2993 843 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 81 88 SW 9 5303 3484 1334 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 83 90 W 8 5795 4652 2502 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 84 90 W 8 5795 4652 2502 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 84 88 W 8 5303 3484 1334 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 83 85 NW 7 3491 2993 843 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 80 81 NW 7 2888 2384 234 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 77 77 NW 7 2238 2150 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 5 1927 2150 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 5 1848 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 NW 5 1812 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 2 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 2 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 2 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SW 2 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 2 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 SW 2 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SW 1 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SW 1 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 SW 1 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SW 2 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 70 SW 2 1829 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 75 SW 2 2027 2150 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 76 81 W 6 2888 2384 234 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 80 86 W 6 3984 3101 951 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 83 90 W 6 5795 4652 2502 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 85 91 W 8 6075 5197 3047 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 86 91 W 8 6075 5197 3047 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 86 90 W 8 5795 4652 2502 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 85 87 W 7 4688 3213 1063 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 82 83 W 7 3105 2776 626 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 7 2609 2150 0 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 75 75 W 3 2027 2150 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 73 73 W 3 1901 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 3 1829 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 W 1 1812 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 1 1795 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 1 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 SW 1 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 SW 1 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 SW 1 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 SW 2 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 SW 2 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 SW 2 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 SW 3 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 70 SW 3 1829 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 76 SW 3 2133 2150 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 76 81 W 7 2888 2384 234 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 80 86 W 7 3984 3101 951 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 82 88 W 7 5303 3484 1334 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 84 90 W 10 5795 4652 2502 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 85 90 W 10 5795 4652 2502 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 85 89 W 10 5565 3898 1748 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 84 86 W 10 3984 3101 951 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 10 3105 2776 626 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 10 2388 2150 0 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 2027 2150 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 6 1875 2150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 6 1829 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 SW 3 1812 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 3 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 SW 3 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 3 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 SW 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 SW 5 1812 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 SW 5 1901 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 8 2609 2150 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 77 83 W 8 3105 2776 626 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 80 86 W 8 3984 3101 951 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 81 87 W 12 4688 3213 1063 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 82 87 W 12 4688 3213 1063 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 82 86 W 12 3984 3101 951 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 80 82 W 12 2997 2603 453 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 78 79 W 12 2609 2150 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 12 2027 2150 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 72 72 W 7 1875 2150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 1829 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 7 1795 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 5 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 SW 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 W 6 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 W 6 1795 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 W 6 1848 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 9 2133 2150 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 74 81 W 9 2888 2384 234 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 76 83 W 9 3105 2776 626 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 78 85 W 12 3491 2993 843 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 79 85 W 12 3491 2993 843 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 79 83 W 12 3105 2776 626 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 78 80 W 13 2779 2237 87 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 13 2238 2150 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 13 1901 2150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 7 1848 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 7 1812 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 1778 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 1761 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 5 1745 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 1728 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 1711 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 1711 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com