Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 2402 2310 160 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 2402 2310 160 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 2464 2371 221 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 56 56 SW 7 2518 2402 252 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 58 60 SW 7 2785 2584 434 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 61 65 SW 7 3103 2916 766 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 64 71 SW 8 3288 3214 1064 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 68 74 SW 8 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 70 76 SW 8 3391 3335 1185 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 71 77 W 9 3405 3359 1209 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 72 74 W 9 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 72 75 W 9 3377 3311 1161 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 71 73 W 8 3336 3262 1112 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 70 71 W 8 3288 3214 1064 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 3215 3101 951 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 5 3103 2916 766 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 2785 2584 434 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 58 58 SW 3 2652 2463 313 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SW 3 2652 2463 313 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 57 57 SW 3 2585 2432 282 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 2518 2402 252 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 2518 2402 252 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 2518 2402 252 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 55 55 S 3 2464 2371 221 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 2518 2402 252 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 2518 2402 252 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 57 58 S 5 2652 2463 313 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 60 62 S 5 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 63 67 S 5 3191 3049 899 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 67 74 W 6 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 69 77 W 6 3405 3359 1209 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 72 81 W 6 3462 3419 1269 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 75 83 W 7 3491 3447 1297 Blue 34
3 PM Sun 76 83 W 7 3491 3447 1297 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 76 81 W 7 3462 3419 1269 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 76 79 W 7 3434 3390 1240 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 74 75 W 7 3377 3311 1161 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 7 3312 3238 1088 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 70 70 W 3 3264 3190 1040 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 3 3191 3049 899 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 3 3103 2916 766 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 63 63 SW 3 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 SW 3 2852 2650 500 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 60 60 SW 3 2785 2584 434 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 3 2785 2584 434 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 3 2718 2516 366 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 58 58 SW 3 2652 2463 313 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 58 58 SW 3 2652 2463 313 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 59 59 SW 3 2718 2516 366 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 60 60 SW 3 2785 2584 434 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 63 64 W 3 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 66 68 W 3 3215 3101 951 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 69 73 W 3 3336 3262 1112 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 73 80 W 7 3448 3405 1255 Blue 31
12 Noon Mon 76 84 W 7 3534 3462 1312 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 78 87 W 7 3946 3531 1381 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 80 88 W 8 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 81 88 W 8 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
4 PM Mon 81 86 W 8 3791 3490 1340 Blue 37
5 PM Mon 81 84 W 8 3534 3462 1312 Blue 35
6 PM Mon 79 80 W 8 3448 3405 1255 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 77 77 W 8 3405 3359 1209 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 75 75 W 2 3377 3311 1161 Blue 26
9 PM Mon 72 72 W 2 3312 3238 1088 Blue 23
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 2 3264 3190 1040 Blue 21
11 PM Mon 68 68 SW 3 3215 3101 951 Blue 19
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SW 3 3152 2983 833 Blue 17
1 AM Tue 65 65 SW 3 3103 2916 766 Blue 16
2 AM Tue 64 64 SW 3 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
3 AM Tue 63 63 SW 3 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 62 62 SW 3 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
5 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 63 63 SW 2 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
7 AM Tue 64 64 SW 2 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
8 AM Tue 66 67 SW 5 3191 3049 899 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 69 72 SW 5 3312 3238 1088 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 72 77 SW 5 3405 3359 1209 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 75 82 SW 5 3477 3433 1283 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 77 85 SW 5 3637 3476 1326 Blue 36
1 PM Tue 79 88 SW 5 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
2 PM Tue 81 89 W 8 4907 3781 1631 Blue 40
3 PM Tue 81 88 W 8 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 81 86 W 8 3791 3490 1340 Blue 37
5 PM Tue 80 83 W 9 3491 3447 1297 Blue 34
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 9 3434 3390 1240 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 3391 3335 1185 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 7 3312 3238 1088 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 7 3239 3149 999 Blue 20
11 PM Tue 67 67 SW 7 3191 3049 899 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SW 7 3152 2983 833 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 65 65 SW 7 3103 2916 766 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 64 64 SW 6 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 64 64 SW 6 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 7 3152 2983 833 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 68 70 SW 7 3264 3190 1040 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 70 74 SW 7 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 74 81 SW 7 3462 3419 1269 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 76 84 SW 7 3534 3462 1312 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 79 88 SW 7 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 80 88 W 8 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 81 88 W 8 4718 3628 1478 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 82 87 W 8 3946 3531 1381 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 81 84 W 9 3534 3462 1312 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 79 80 W 9 3448 3405 1255 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 3391 3335 1185 Blue 27
8 PM Wed 74 74 SW 7 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 71 71 SW 7 3288 3214 1064 Blue 22
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 7 3239 3149 999 Blue 20
11 PM Wed 67 67 SW 7 3191 3049 899 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 7 3103 2916 766 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 2985 2783 633 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 7 2852 2650 500 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 7 2852 2650 500 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 62 62 S 7 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 63 64 S 7 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 66 68 S 7 3215 3101 951 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 69 73 S 7 3336 3262 1112 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 72 79 W 8 3434 3390 1240 Blue 30
12 Noon Thu 74 82 W 8 3477 3433 1283 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 76 85 W 8 3637 3476 1326 Blue 36
2 PM Thu 78 86 W 9 3791 3490 1340 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 79 86 W 9 3791 3490 1340 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 79 84 W 9 3534 3462 1312 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 78 81 W 10 3462 3419 1269 Blue 32
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 10 3420 3376 1226 Blue 29
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 3360 3287 1137 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 8 3312 3238 1088 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 3239 3149 999 Blue 20
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 3152 2983 833 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 64 64 S 7 3052 2850 700 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 S 7 2919 2717 567 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 61 61 S 7 2852 2650 500 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 60 60 S 7 2785 2584 434 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 59 59 S 7 2718 2516 366 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 7 2652 2463 313 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com