Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 14 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 W 14 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 W 14 3267 2150 0 White 1
7 AM Sat 40 40 NW 16 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NW 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 NW 16 3267 2150 0 White 1
10 AM Sat 43 43 W 22 3484 2150 0 White 2
11 AM Sat 44 44 W 22 3702 2347 197 White 2
12 Noon Sat 44 44 W 22 3702 2347 197 White 2
1 PM Sat 44 44 W 21 3702 2347 197 White 2
2 PM Sat 45 45 W 21 3917 3133 983 White 3
3 PM Sat 44 44 W 21 3702 2347 197 White 2
4 PM Sat 44 44 W 23 3702 2347 197 White 2
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 23 3484 2150 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 41 41 W 23 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 NW 17 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 NW 17 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 NW 17 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 S 10 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 S 10 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 S 10 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 18 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 18 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 S 18 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 10 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 10 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NW 10 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NW 14 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NW 14 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 NW 14 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 N 21 3484 2150 0 White 2
11 AM Sun 43 44 N 21 3702 2347 197 White 2
12 Noon Sun 44 45 N 21 3917 3133 983 White 3
1 PM Sun 44 45 N 14 3917 3133 983 White 3
2 PM Sun 44 45 N 14 3917 3133 983 White 3
3 PM Sun 44 44 N 14 3702 2347 197 White 2
4 PM Sun 43 43 NW 13 3484 2150 0 White 2
5 PM Sun 42 42 NW 13 3267 2150 0 White 1
6 PM Sun 40 40 NW 13 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 N 18 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 N 18 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 N 18 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 17 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 N 17 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 N 17 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 N 16 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 16 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 N 16 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 24 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 24 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 24 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 N 23 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 N 23 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 42 N 23 3267 2150 0 White 1
10 AM Mon 44 46 N 17 4132 3865 1715 White 4
11 AM Mon 46 49 N 17 4785 4785 2635 White 7
12 Noon Mon 47 50 N 17 4998 4998 2848 White 8
1 PM Mon 48 51 N 15 5209 5209 3059 White 9
2 PM Mon 48 51 N 15 5209 5209 3059 White 9
3 PM Mon 47 48 N 15 4566 4566 2416 White 6
4 PM Mon 46 46 N 18 4132 3865 1715 White 4
5 PM Mon 45 45 N 18 3917 3133 983 White 3
6 PM Mon 42 42 N 18 3267 2150 0 White 1
7 PM Mon 41 41 N 23 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 N 23 3267 2150 0 White 1
9 PM Mon 42 42 N 23 3267 2150 0 White 1
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 23 3267 2150 0 White 1
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 23 3267 2150 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 N 23 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 21 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 N 21 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 21 3267 2150 0 White 1
4 AM Tue 41 41 N 23 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 N 23 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 23 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 N 7 3484 2150 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 44 46 N 8 4132 3865 1715 White 4
11 AM Tue 45 47 N 8 4348 4175 2025 White 5
12 Noon Tue 47 50 N 8 4998 4998 2848 White 8
1 PM Tue 47 50 N 8 4998 4998 2848 White 8
2 PM Tue 47 49 N 8 4785 4785 2635 White 7
3 PM Tue 47 48 N 8 4566 4566 2416 White 6
4 PM Tue 46 46 NW 9 4132 3865 1715 White 4
5 PM Tue 45 45 NW 9 3917 3133 983 White 3
6 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3267 2150 0 White 1
7 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3267 2150 0 White 1
8 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3267 2150 0 White 1
9 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3267 2150 0 White 1
10 PM Tue 42 42 NW 7 3267 2150 0 White 1
11 PM Tue 42 42 NW 7 3267 2150 0 White 1
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 NW 7 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NW 7 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 NW 7 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 NW 7 3267 2150 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 42 42 NE 6 3267 2150 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NE 6 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 NE 6 3267 2150 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 44 45 W 13 3917 3133 983 White 3
11 AM Wed 46 47 W 13 4348 4175 2025 White 5
12 Noon Wed 47 49 W 13 4785 4785 2635 White 7
1 PM Wed 48 50 W 13 4998 4998 2848 White 8
2 PM Wed 48 49 W 13 4785 4785 2635 White 7
3 PM Wed 47 48 W 13 4566 4566 2416 White 6
4 PM Wed 47 47 NW 13 4348 4175 2025 White 5
5 PM Wed 46 46 NW 13 4132 3865 1715 White 4
6 PM Wed 43 43 NW 13 3484 2150 0 White 2
7 PM Wed 42 42 NW 13 3267 2150 0 White 1
8 PM Wed 42 42 NW 13 3267 2150 0 White 1
9 PM Wed 43 43 NW 13 3484 2150 0 White 2
10 PM Wed 43 43 W 13 3484 2150 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 42 42 W 13 3267 2150 0 White 1
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 W 13 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 W 14 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 14 3267 2150 0 White 1
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 14 3267 2150 0 White 1
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 14 3267 2150 0 White 1
5 AM Thu 40 40 NW 14 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NW 14 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 NW 13 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 NW 13 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 NW 13 3267 2150 0 White 1
10 AM Thu 43 44 N 15 3702 2347 197 White 2
11 AM Thu 44 45 N 15 3917 3133 983 White 3
12 Noon Thu 45 47 N 15 4348 4175 2025 White 5
1 PM Thu 46 48 N 15 4566 4566 2416 White 6
2 PM Thu 46 47 N 15 4348 4175 2025 White 5
3 PM Thu 45 46 N 15 4132 3865 1715 White 4
4 PM Thu 45 45 N 16 3917 3133 983 White 3
5 PM Thu 44 44 N 16 3702 2347 197 White 2
6 PM Thu 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 N 16 1742 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 16 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 16 1788 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 2358 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com