Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 44 44 N 3 1785 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 3 1785 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 N 3 1785 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 3 1785 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 1785 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 1964 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 NW 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 54 55 NW 2 3893 2150 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 56 58 NW 2 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 57 58 NW 3 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 58 59 NW 3 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 58 58 NW 3 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 56 56 W 3 3954 2241 91 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 54 54 W 3 3833 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 53 53 W 3 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 53 53 NW 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 53 53 NW 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 53 53 NW 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 53 53 N 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 N 2 2255 2150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 2081 2150 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 55 55 S 6 3893 2150 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 58 58 S 6 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 59 59 S 7 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 60 60 S 7 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 62 62 S 7 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 62 62 SW 5 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 61 61 SE 7 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 59 59 SE 7 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 58 58 S 9 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 58 58 S 9 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 S 9 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 57 57 S 9 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 57 57 S 9 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 57 57 S 9 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 57 57 S 8 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 58 58 S 8 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 57 57 S 8 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 57 57 S 8 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 61 61 S 8 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 64 64 S 8 4438 4251 2101 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 65 66 N 5 4587 4372 2222 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 67 68 N 5 4831 4502 2352 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 68 69 N 5 5094 4580 2430 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 69 70 N 5 5227 4657 2507 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 70 71 N 5 5346 4798 2648 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 70 70 N 5 5227 4657 2507 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 67 67 SE 7 4664 4433 2283 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 63 63 SE 7 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 62 62 SE 7 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 62 62 SE 7 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 62 62 SE 7 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 61 61 SE 7 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 8 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 61 61 S 8 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 S 8 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 61 61 S 8 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 61 61 S 8 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 60 60 S 8 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 61 61 S 7 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 7 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 63 63 S 7 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 65 65 S 7 4509 4312 2162 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 66 67 E 5 4664 4433 2283 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 68 70 E 5 5227 4657 2507 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 69 71 E 5 5346 4798 2648 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 69 71 E 5 5346 4798 2648 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 70 71 E 5 5346 4798 2648 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 70 70 E 5 5227 4657 2507 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 67 67 NW 3 4664 4433 2283 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 64 64 NW 3 4438 4251 2101 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 63 63 NW 3 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 62 62 NW 3 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 62 62 NW 3 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 3 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 2 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 2 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NW 2 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 61 61 NW 2 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 61 61 NW 2 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 61 61 NW 2 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 61 61 SE 1 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 1 4256 4070 1920 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 60 60 SE 1 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 60 60 SE 1 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 63 63 SE 1 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 65 65 SE 1 4509 4312 2162 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 66 67 NW 2 4664 4433 2283 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 67 68 NW 2 4831 4502 2352 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 68 69 NW 2 5094 4580 2430 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 68 69 NW 2 5094 4580 2430 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 69 70 NW 2 5227 4657 2507 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 68 68 NW 2 4831 4502 2352 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 4587 4372 2222 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 59 59 NW 6 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 NW 3 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 59 59 NW 3 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 NW 3 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 3 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 3 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 58 58 NW 3 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 60 60 N 5 4195 4009 1859 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 62 62 N 5 4317 4130 1980 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 63 64 N 3 4438 4251 2101 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 64 65 N 3 4509 4312 2162 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 65 66 N 3 4587 4372 2222 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 65 66 N 3 4587 4372 2222 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 66 67 N 3 4664 4433 2283 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 65 65 N 3 4509 4312 2162 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 63 63 NW 7 4378 4190 2040 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 59 59 NW 7 4134 3949 1799 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 7 4074 3889 1739 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 7 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 57 57 NE 2 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 57 57 NE 2 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NE 2 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 57 57 NE 2 4014 3829 1679 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 2 3954 2241 91 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 56 56 NE 2 3954 2241 91 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com