Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 61 61 E 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 69 SE 6 3043 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 72 SE 6 3590 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 71 72 SE 6 3590 4000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 73 74 S 7 4176 4000 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 74 74 S 7 4176 4000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 73 73 S 7 3775 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 70 70 SE 5 3226 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 63 63 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SE 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SE 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SE 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 S 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 S 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 S 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 SE 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 SE 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 SE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 67 SE 6 2783 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 68 SE 6 2897 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 67 SW 7 2783 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 2668 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 65 SW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 NW 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 NW 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 NW 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 NW 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 65 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 68 NW 7 2897 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 68 NW 7 2897 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 69 NW 7 3043 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 2783 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 65 NW 8 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 8 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 NW 8 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 62 N 6 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 68 NE 5 2897 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 73 NE 5 3775 4000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 73 75 NE 5 4572 4000 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 74 76 NE 5 4963 4000 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 75 76 NE 5 4963 4000 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 74 75 NE 5 4572 4000 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 72 72 W 5 3590 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 5 2783 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 N 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 N 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 66 NE 5 2668 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 72 NE 5 3590 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 74 76 NE 5 4963 4000 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 76 78 NE 5 6163 4549 549 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 76 78 NE 5 6163 4549 549 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 76 77 NE 5 5563 4158 158 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 75 75 NE 5 4572 4000 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 73 73 W 3 3775 4000 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 3 2897 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 N 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 N 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 3 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 64 NE 5 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 70 SW 6 3226 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 71 73 SW 6 3775 4000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 73 75 SW 6 4572 4000 0 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 73 75 SW 6 4572 4000 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 73 74 SW 6 4176 4000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 71 71 SW 6 3408 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 69 69 SW 7 3043 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 65 SW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 SW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 SW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 SW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 SW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NW 7 2625 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com