Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 NE 5 2657 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 66 NE 3 3787 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 70 NE 3 5669 4375 375 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 70 72 NE 3 6082 4880 880 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 70 72 SE 5 6082 4880 880 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 69 70 SE 5 5669 4375 375 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 67 67 SE 5 4385 4000 0 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 65 65 S 2 3556 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 61 61 S 2 2918 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 S 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 E 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 E 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 E 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NE 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NE 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 2657 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 65 E 3 3556 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 67 69 E 3 4915 4000 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 69 71 E 3 5876 4553 553 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 69 71 SE 3 5876 4553 553 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 68 69 SE 3 4915 4000 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 66 67 SE 3 4385 4000 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 64 64 SE 3 3454 4000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 60 60 SE 3 2657 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 SE 3 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 SE 3 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 SE 3 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 SE 3 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NE 7 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 NE 7 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 7 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 7 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 7 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 NE 7 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 64 E 6 3454 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 66 68 E 6 4564 4000 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 67 69 E 6 4915 4000 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 67 69 E 6 4915 4000 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 66 67 E 6 4385 4000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 65 65 E 6 3556 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 62 62 E 5 3177 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 54 E 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 E 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 2657 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 E 7 3177 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 63 E 7 3352 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 63 64 E 7 3454 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 63 64 E 7 3454 4000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 63 64 E 7 3454 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 62 62 E 7 3177 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 61 E 6 2918 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 59 E 6 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 SE 9 2918 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 62 SE 9 3177 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 64 SE 9 3454 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 62 63 SE 9 3352 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 62 63 SE 9 3352 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 61 61 SE 9 2918 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 2657 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 8 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SE 12 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SE 12 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SE 12 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SE 12 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 SE 12 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 SE 12 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 55 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 55 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 54 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 53 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 52 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 S 13 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 SW 9 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 9 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 9 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 9 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 9 2631 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 9 2631 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com