Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 37 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 37 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 38 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 39 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 43 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 45 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 46 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 47 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 46 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 45 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 45 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 43 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 41 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 39 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 38 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 37 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 39 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 44 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 47 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 48 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 48 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 47 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 46 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 45 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 37 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 37 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 37 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 36 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 36 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 37 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 38 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 39 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 43 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 46 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 47 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 47 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 47 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 45 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 44 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 41 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 39 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 38 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 38 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 40 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 46 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 48 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 49 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 50 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 49 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 47 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 45 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 37 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 37 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 36 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 SW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 44 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 47 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 48 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 48 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 47 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 46 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 44 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 41 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 43 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 46 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 47 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 47 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 46 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 45 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 43 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 40 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com