Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 31 SSW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 30 S 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 30 SSW 4 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 SSW 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 SSW 4 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 SSW 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 29 SW 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 29 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 29 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 32 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 34 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 36 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 38 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 38 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 38 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 37 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 36 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 35 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 33 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 32 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 32 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 31 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 31 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 30 SW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 30 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 29 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 29 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 29 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 29 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 30 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 31 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 33 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 34 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 35 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 36 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 36 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 37 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 37 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 36 SW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 34 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 32 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 31 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 30 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 30 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 32 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 32 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 32 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 31 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 31 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 30 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 31 SW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 31 SW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 SW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 34 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 35 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 35 SW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 36 SW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 37 SW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 38 WSW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 37 WSW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 36 WSW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 35 WSW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 WSW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 32 WSW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 WSW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 32 WSW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 32 WSW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 WSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 32 WSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 31 WSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 31 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 31 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 31 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 SSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 SSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 SSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 34 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 35 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 37 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 38 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 39 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 40 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 39 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 38 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 36 WSW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 WSW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 33 WSW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 32 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 32 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 31 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 31 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 33 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 35 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 36 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 38 SSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 40 SSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 40 SSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 42 SW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 41 SW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 38 SW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 36 SW 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 35 SW 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 SW 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 33 SW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 SW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 32 SW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 31 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 31 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 31 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 32 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 34 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 36 WSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 36 WSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 37 WSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 39 W 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 38 W 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 37 W 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 36 W 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 W 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 33 W 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 32 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 31 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com