Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 54 34 SE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 SE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 SE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 S 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 S 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 S 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 35 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 35 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 35 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 34 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 34 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 34 SW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 34 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 35 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 34 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 35 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 S 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 34 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 36 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 36 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 36 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 36 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 35 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 34 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 34 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 33 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 33 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 33 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 35 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 36 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 36 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 37 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 35 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 35 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 35 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 35 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 34 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 33 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 36 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 38 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 38 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 38 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 36 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 34 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 34 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 34 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 34 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 34 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 35 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 37 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 39 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 41 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 41 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 41 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 41 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 41 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 40 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 39 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 39 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 38 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 38 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 39 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 40 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 40 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 39 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 38 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 38 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com