Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 51 31 W 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 W 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 31 W 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 31 NW 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 31 NW 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 34 NW 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 38 E 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 43 E 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 46 E 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 50 SE 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 68 52 SE 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 53 SE 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 51 W 16 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 48 W 16 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 46 W 16 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 43 W 15 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 W 15 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 W 15 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 41 NW 13 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 NW 13 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 40 NW 13 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 39 NW 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 NW 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 38 NW 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 37 NW 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 35 NW 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 NW 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 34 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 37 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 42 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 48 SE 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 54 SE 5 798 335 135 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 73 58 SE 5 2176 1947 1747 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 76 61 W 17 3062 2167 1967 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 77 61 W 17 3062 2167 1967 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 77 60 W 17 2646 2066 1866 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 76 57 W 20 2069 795 595 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 74 54 W 20 798 335 135 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 72 52 W 20 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 50 W 20 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 47 W 20 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 45 W 20 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 44 N 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 42 N 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 41 N 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 40 N 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 40 N 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 39 N 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 37 N 6 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 N 6 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 35 N 6 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 N 6 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 40 N 6 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 45 N 6 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 51 NW 8 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 56 NW 8 2009 335 135 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 77 62 NW 8 3384 2352 2152 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 80 65 NW 8 4159 3364 3164 White 11
3 PM Sun 82 66 NW 8 4374 3592 3392 White 12
4 PM Sun 82 64 NW 8 3843 3031 2831 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 81 62 NW 22 3384 2352 2152 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 79 59 NW 22 2362 2006 1806 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 76 56 NW 22 2009 335 135 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 73 53 NW 22 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 52 NW 22 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 51 NW 22 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 50 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 49 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 48 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 47 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 47 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 47 N 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 46 NW 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 42 NW 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 38 NW 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 37 NW 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 41 NW 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 48 NW 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 56 NE 7 2009 335 135 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 78 63 NE 7 3614 2620 2420 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 82 67 NE 7 4589 3819 3619 White 13
2 PM Mon 84 69 NE 7 5022 4513 4313 White 15
3 PM Mon 85 69 NE 7 5022 4513 4313 White 15
4 PM Mon 85 68 NE 7 4810 4160 3960 White 14
5 PM Mon 83 64 W 10 3843 3031 2831 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 79 59 W 10 2362 2006 1806 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 75 55 W 10 1949 335 135 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 71 51 W 10 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 48 W 10 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 47 W 10 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 46 NW 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 46 NW 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 45 NW 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 44 NW 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 43 NW 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 43 NW 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 42 NE 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 41 NE 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 41 NE 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 43 NE 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 49 NE 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 56 NE 7 2009 335 135 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 80 64 NE 8 3843 3031 2831 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 84 69 NE 8 5022 4513 4313 White 15
1 PM Tue 87 72 NE 8 5653 5653 5453 White 18
2 PM Tue 88 73 NE 8 5863 5863 5663 White 19
3 PM Tue 90 74 NE 8 6073 6073 5873 White 20
4 PM Tue 90 73 NE 8 5863 5863 5663 White 19
5 PM Tue 88 69 W 12 5022 4513 4313 White 15
6 PM Tue 85 65 W 12 4159 3364 3164 White 11
7 PM Tue 80 60 W 12 2646 2066 1866 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 75 55 W 12 1949 335 135 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 71 51 W 12 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 49 W 12 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 47 W 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 45 W 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 44 W 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 43 W 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 43 W 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 43 W 3 335 335 135 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 42 N 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 41 N 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 41 N 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 42 N 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 47 N 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 52 N 2 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 58 NE 6 2176 1947 1747 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 80 64 NE 6 3843 3031 2831 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 83 67 NE 6 4589 3819 3619 White 13
2 PM Wed 85 69 NE 6 5022 4513 4313 White 15
3 PM Wed 87 70 NE 6 5234 5154 4954 White 16
4 PM Wed 87 69 NE 6 5022 4513 4313 White 15
5 PM Wed 85 66 SW 7 4374 3592 3392 White 12
6 PM Wed 82 62 SW 7 3384 2352 2152 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 77 57 SW 7 2069 795 595 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 73 53 SW 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 50 SW 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 48 SW 7 335 335 135 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 47 W 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 W 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 45 W 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 44 W 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 43 W 5 335 335 135 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 42 W 5 335 335 135 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com