Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 52 32 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 30 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 29 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 32 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 38 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 39 NW 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 39 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 37 NW 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 36 NW 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 36 NW 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 34 NW 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 32 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 31 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 29 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 29 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 27 N 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 27 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 28 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 28 N 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 28 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 28 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 27 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 28 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 31 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 35 N 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 39 N 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 40 N 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 41 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 41 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 40 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 40 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 38 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 36 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 29 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 26 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 25 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 25 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 26 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 29 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 33 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 36 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 37 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 38 NE 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 38 NE 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 37 NE 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 37 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 33 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 31 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 29 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 28 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 28 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 27 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 25 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 24 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 24 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 26 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 28 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 31 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 35 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 37 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 38 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 38 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 37 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 32 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 31 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 30 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 29 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 28 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 28 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 27 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 27 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 26 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 25 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 24 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 24 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 26 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 28 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 31 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 34 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 37 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 37 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 37 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 36 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 33 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 32 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 31 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 30 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 29 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 29 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 28 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 28 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 28 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 27 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 26 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 25 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 25 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 27 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 29 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 32 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 35 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 36 SE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 36 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 35 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 33 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 32 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 31 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com