Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 49 29 NE 5 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 NE 5 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 29 NE 5 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 E 5 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 28 E 5 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 29 E 5 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 32 SE 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 35 SE 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 36 SE 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 37 S 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 37 S 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 36 S 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 36 NW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 NW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 NW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 33 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 33 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 32 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 32 S 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 S 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 32 S 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 32 S 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 32 S 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 S 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 31 S 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 30 S 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 30 S 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 30 S 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 30 S 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 31 S 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 32 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 33 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 34 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 35 SW 20 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 36 SW 20 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 35 SW 20 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 34 W 15 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 32 W 15 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 31 W 15 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 31 W 15 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 30 W 15 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 29 W 15 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 29 W 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 29 W 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 28 W 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 28 W 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 28 W 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 27 W 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 27 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 26 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 26 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 25 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 25 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 26 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 28 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 30 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 31 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 32 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 33 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 33 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 32 NW 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 30 NW 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 29 NW 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 28 NW 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 27 NW 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 26 NW 17 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 26 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 26 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 26 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 25 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 25 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 24 NW 12 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 24 NW 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 23 NW 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 23 NW 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 22 NW 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 22 NW 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 24 NW 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 27 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 30 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 32 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 33 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 53 34 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 53 33 NW 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 32 W 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 31 W 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 30 W 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 30 W 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 29 W 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 29 W 10 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 28 W 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 W 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 28 W 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 28 W 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 28 W 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 27 W 6 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 27 S 1 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 26 S 1 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 26 S 1 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 26 S 1 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 26 S 1 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 27 S 1 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 29 SE 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 31 SE 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 32 SE 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 33 SE 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 34 SE 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 34 SE 8 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 33 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 32 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 31 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 31 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 30 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 30 S 18 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 30 S 22 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 30 S 22 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 30 S 22 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 29 S 22 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 29 S 22 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 29 S 22 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 28 SW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 28 SW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 SW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 28 SW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 SW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 28 SW 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 30 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 32 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 33 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 34 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 34 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 34 W 7 650 650 450 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 33 NW 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 32 NW 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 31 NW 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 30 NW 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 30 NW 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 29 NW 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 29 NE 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 29 NE 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 29 NE 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 28 NE 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 28 NE 3 650 650 450 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 27 NE 3 650 650 450 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com