Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 33 W 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 W 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 W 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 W 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 W 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 34 W 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 35 W 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 34 W 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 36 W 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 34 NW 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 35 NW 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 35 NW 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 35 W 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 W 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 W 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 W 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 33 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 33 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 34 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 34 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 34 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 34 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 35 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 37 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 38 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 37 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 38 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 36 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 35 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 35 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 35 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 34 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 34 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 39 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 39 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 40 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 42 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 42 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 41 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 40 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 39 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 35 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 37 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 39 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 42 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 42 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 43 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 45 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 45 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 43 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 41 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 38 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 34 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 34 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 34 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 40 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 41 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 40 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 40 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 38 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 37 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 39 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 41 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 41 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 44 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 43 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 44 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 39 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com