Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 50 30 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 30 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 30 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 38 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 42 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 44 NE 8 32 200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 63 46 NE 8 70 200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 64 46 NW 9 70 200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 64 46 NW 9 70 200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 63 44 NW 9 32 200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 61 41 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 37 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 32 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 31 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 31 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 30 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 30 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 30 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 29 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 29 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 29 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 29 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 29 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 29 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 31 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 39 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 40 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 42 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 42 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 42 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 38 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 35 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 33 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 32 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 31 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 30 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 30 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 29 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 29 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 29 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 29 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 29 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 28 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 29 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 31 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 42 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 44 E 8 32 200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 63 44 E 8 32 200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 63 44 E 8 32 200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 62 42 E 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 40 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 37 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 31 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 31 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 36 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 40 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 42 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 43 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 44 E 6 32 200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 63 44 E 6 32 200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 62 42 E 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 40 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 37 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 33 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 32 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 31 E 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 30 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 31 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 30 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 30 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 30 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 30 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 30 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 36 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 40 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 42 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 44 SE 6 32 200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 63 44 SE 6 32 200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 63 44 SE 6 32 200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 62 42 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 41 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 38 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 36 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 35 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 34 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 33 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 33 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 SE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 SE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 SE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 SE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 SE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 37 SE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 39 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 41 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 41 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 42 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 42 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 40 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 39 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 37 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 35 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 34 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 34 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 32 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 32 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 32 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com