Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 32 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 32 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 SW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 33 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 34 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 35 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 35 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 36 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 36 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 35 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 34 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 33 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 33 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 33 SW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 SW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 32 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 33 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 34 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 37 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 38 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 39 SW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 39 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 38 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 38 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 37 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 35 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 34 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 33 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 W 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 33 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 33 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 32 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 32 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 32 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 32 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 32 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 32 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 33 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 34 S 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 38 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 40 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 40 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 40 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 39 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 38 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 37 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 36 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 33 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 33 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 33 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 33 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 32 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 35 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 35 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 38 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 40 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 40 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 41 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 33 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 33 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 33 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 32 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 40 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 43 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 38 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 37 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 33 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 32 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 32 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 34 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 36 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 40 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 43 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 44 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 44 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 42 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 41 NW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 38 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 37 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 33 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com