Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 37 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 36 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 38 S 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 42 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 43 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 44 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 43 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 42 W 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 42 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 41 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 W 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 39 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 38 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 39 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 40 S 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 39 S 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 40 S 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 41 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 42 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 42 S 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 43 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 43 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 42 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 40 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 36 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 37 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 42 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 44 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 46 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 45 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 45 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 43 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 41 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 41 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 40 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 40 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 38 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 38 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 36 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 35 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 38 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 40 N 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 44 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 47 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 49 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 50 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 50 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 48 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 45 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 43 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 42 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 40 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 39 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 36 W 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 36 W 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 W 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 39 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 41 N 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 44 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 47 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 50 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 51 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 50 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 48 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 46 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 44 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 44 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 42 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 41 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 W 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 38 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 38 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 37 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 38 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 40 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 45 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 46 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 47 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 47 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 46 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 44 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 41 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 40 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 38 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 38 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com