Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 SE 6 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 S 6 5675 4378 378 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 67 70 S 6 6508 5868 1868 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 68 71 S 6 6899 6075 2075 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 68 70 SW 7 6508 5868 1868 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 68 70 SW 7 6508 5868 1868 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 66 67 SW 7 5884 4558 558 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 SE 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SE 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 SE 7 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 63 S 8 4383 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 65 67 S 8 5884 4558 558 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 66 68 S 8 6093 4898 898 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 66 68 S 9 6093 4898 898 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 66 67 S 9 5884 4558 558 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 64 64 S 9 4565 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 SW 8 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 SW 8 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 SW 8 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 SW 8 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 SW 8 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 E 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 E 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 E 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 SE 12 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 65 SE 12 4922 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 64 65 SE 12 4922 4000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 65 66 SE 12 5675 4378 378 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 65 66 SE 12 5675 4378 378 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 63 63 SE 12 4383 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 60 60 SE 9 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 SE 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 SE 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 SE 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 SE 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 SE 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SE 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 SE 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SE 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SE 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SE 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 SE 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 61 SE 8 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 63 SE 8 4383 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 63 64 SE 8 4565 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 63 64 SE 8 4565 4000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 63 64 SE 8 4565 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 61 61 SE 8 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 58 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 SW 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 S 6 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 S 8 3347 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 62 S 8 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 63 S 8 4383 4000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 61 63 S 8 4383 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 62 S 8 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 3450 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 57 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 S 9 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 55 S 15 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 S 15 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 58 S 15 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 58 S 15 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 57 S 15 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 55 55 S 15 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 S 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 S 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 S 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 14 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com