Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 NW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 NW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 NW 6 4709 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 79 83 NW 6 8787 6955 2955 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 82 88 NW 8 10642 9758 5758 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 84 92 NW 8 11233 10759 6759 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 86 94 NW 8 12358 11028 7028 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 86 94 NW 12 12358 11028 7028 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 88 95 NW 12 12630 11189 7189 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 87 92 NW 12 11233 10759 6759 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 86 89 NW 13 10796 10268 6268 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 83 84 NW 13 9335 7556 3556 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 80 80 NW 13 7025 5783 1783 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 75 75 NW 7 5258 4000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 70 70 NW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 NW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NW 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NW 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NW 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 SE 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SE 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 S 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 73 S 6 4709 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 77 81 S 6 7635 6051 2051 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 80 86 S 7 10332 8693 4693 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 81 88 S 7 10642 9758 5758 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 82 90 S 7 10938 10452 6452 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 83 91 SW 6 11061 10606 6606 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 84 90 SW 6 10938 10452 6452 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 85 90 SW 6 10938 10452 6452 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 84 87 SW 8 10488 9233 5233 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 82 83 SW 8 8787 6955 2955 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 78 78 SW 8 6073 5242 1242 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 2 4709 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 68 68 NW 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 2 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 SW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 70 SW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 79 SW 3 6389 5513 1513 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 79 85 SW 6 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SW 6 10796 10268 6268 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 82 90 SW 6 10938 10452 6452 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 82 90 SW 8 10938 10452 6452 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 83 89 SW 8 10796 10268 6268 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 83 88 SW 8 10642 9758 5758 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 82 85 SW 10 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 79 80 SW 10 7025 5783 1783 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 75 75 SW 10 5258 4000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 SW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 3 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 59 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 66 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 73 SW 6 4709 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 73 79 SW 8 6389 5513 1513 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 76 83 SW 8 8787 6955 2955 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 77 85 SW 8 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 78 86 SW 12 10332 8693 4693 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 79 85 SW 12 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 80 85 SW 12 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 79 82 SW 12 8221 6329 2329 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 76 77 SW 12 5803 4969 969 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 3941 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 8 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 8 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 8 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 SW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 SW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 SW 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 66 SW 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 73 SW 6 4709 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 73 79 SW 7 6389 5513 1513 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 76 83 SW 7 8787 6955 2955 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 77 85 SW 7 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 78 86 SW 12 10332 8693 4693 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 79 85 SW 12 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 80 85 SW 12 9866 8134 4134 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 80 83 W 10 8787 6955 2955 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 77 78 W 10 6073 5242 1242 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 4709 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 W 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 70 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 78 W 5 6073 5242 1242 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 78 84 S 7 9335 7556 3556 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 80 87 S 7 10488 9233 5233 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 81 89 S 7 10796 10268 6268 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 82 90 SW 10 10938 10452 6452 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 83 89 SW 10 10796 10268 6268 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 84 89 SW 10 10796 10268 6268 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 84 87 W 10 10488 9233 5233 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 81 82 W 10 8221 6329 2329 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 10 5803 4969 969 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 7 3941 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 7 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 3245 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com