Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 2 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 S 2 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 S 2 4116 4000 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 55 56 SW 3 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 61 62 SW 3 5339 4773 773 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 64 66 SW 3 6235 5453 1453 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 65 66 W 6 6235 5453 1453 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 66 67 W 6 6480 5574 1574 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 5582 5210 1210 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 5076 4571 571 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 53 53 W 6 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 6 4116 4000 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 49 49 N 3 4055 4000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 3 3932 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 3 3932 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 5 3871 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 45 45 N 5 3190 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 N 5 3190 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 NE 5 3190 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NE 5 3190 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 N 5 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 N 5 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 N 5 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 2720 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 NW 7 3994 4000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 58 59 N 9 4789 4492 492 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 63 64 N 9 5582 5210 1210 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 65 66 N 9 6235 5453 1453 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 66 67 N 8 6480 5574 1574 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 66 67 N 8 6480 5574 1574 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 65 65 N 8 5757 5331 1331 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 62 62 NE 7 5339 4773 773 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 56 56 NE 7 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 54 54 NE 7 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 4178 4000 0 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 4178 4000 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 6 4116 4000 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 6 4116 4000 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 E 6 4055 4000 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 49 49 E 6 4055 4000 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 49 49 E 6 4055 4000 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 3994 4000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 49 49 SE 3 4055 4000 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 3994 4000 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 3994 4000 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 3994 4000 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 59 59 SE 3 4789 4492 492 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 65 66 S 6 6235 5453 1453 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 70 71 S 6 8289 6697 2697 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 73 74 S 6 9533 8182 4182 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 75 76 S 6 10037 9115 5115 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 75 76 S 6 10037 9115 5115 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 74 74 S 6 9533 8182 4182 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 69 69 SE 7 7020 6213 2213 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 62 62 SE 7 5339 4773 773 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 59 59 SE 7 4789 4492 492 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 57 57 SE 7 4574 4362 362 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 56 56 SE 7 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 55 55 SE 7 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 55 55 SE 9 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 54 54 SE 9 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SE 9 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 53 53 SE 9 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 53 53 SE 9 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 53 53 SE 9 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 57 57 SE 9 4574 4362 362 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 62 63 SE 9 5461 5066 1066 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 67 68 SE 3 6724 5715 1715 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 73 75 SE 3 9827 8764 4764 Blue 30
12 Noon Wed 75 77 SE 3 10943 9462 5462 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 76 78 SE 3 12166 9782 5782 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 77 78 SE 3 12166 9782 5782 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 75 75 SE 3 9827 8764 4764 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 71 71 S 3 8289 6697 2697 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 64 64 S 3 5582 5210 1210 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 61 61 S 3 5218 4649 649 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 59 59 S 3 4789 4492 492 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 58 58 S 3 4653 4424 424 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 57 57 S 3 4574 4362 362 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 2 4574 4362 362 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 56 56 NW 2 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NW 2 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 55 55 NW 2 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 2 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 55 55 SE 1 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 54 54 SE 1 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 53 53 SE 1 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 54 54 SE 1 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 58 58 SE 1 4653 4424 424 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 63 63 SE 1 5461 5066 1066 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 67 68 SE 2 6724 5715 1715 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 72 74 SE 2 9533 8182 4182 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 74 76 SE 2 10037 9115 5115 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 75 77 SE 2 10943 9462 5462 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 76 77 SE 2 10943 9462 5462 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 74 74 SE 2 9533 8182 4182 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 70 70 N 6 7596 6456 2456 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 63 63 N 6 5461 5066 1066 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 59 59 N 6 4789 4492 492 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 57 57 N 6 4574 4362 362 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 56 56 N 6 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 6 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 55 55 N 2 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 2 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 2 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 4178 4000 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 3 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 5076 4571 571 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 64 65 NW 1 5757 5331 1331 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 68 69 NW 1 7020 6213 2213 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 70 72 NW 1 8828 6954 2954 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 71 72 NW 1 8828 6954 2954 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 71 72 NW 1 8828 6954 2954 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 70 70 NW 1 7596 6456 2456 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 66 66 NE 2 6235 5453 1453 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 59 59 NE 2 4789 4492 492 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 56 56 NE 2 4495 4300 300 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 55 55 NE 2 4426 4238 238 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 54 54 NE 2 4364 4176 176 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 4302 4115 115 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 52 52 SE 5 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 52 52 SE 5 4240 4054 54 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SE 5 4178 4000 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 4178 4000 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 4178 4000 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 4116 4000 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com