Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 SE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 SE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 SE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 64 SE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 68 S 7 3584 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 74 S 7 6187 4558 558 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 73 74 S 7 6187 4558 558 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 73 73 S 9 5580 4162 162 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 71 71 S 9 4573 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 70 70 S 9 4172 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 67 67 S 7 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 S 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 S 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 SE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 SE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 SE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 SE 8 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SE 8 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SE 8 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SE 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SE 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 SE 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 59 S 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 63 S 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 64 S 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 63 S 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 62 S 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 61 S 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 S 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 S 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 S 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 SE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 E 1 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 1 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 1 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 N 2 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 61 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 63 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 65 N 9 3032 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 65 N 9 3032 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 62 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 60 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 9 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 12 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 12 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 12 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 13 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 13 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 13 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 NE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 NE 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 66 NE 7 3217 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 70 NE 7 4172 4000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 68 70 N 8 4172 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 68 70 N 8 4172 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 67 68 N 8 3584 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 64 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 59 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 N 7 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 E 6 3584 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 72 E 6 4968 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 71 74 E 6 6187 4558 558 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 72 74 NE 6 6187 4558 558 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 72 74 NE 6 6187 4558 558 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 71 72 NE 6 4968 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 3584 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NE 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 E 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 65 E 5 3032 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 69 E 6 3768 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 73 E 6 5580 4162 162 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 72 75 E 6 6772 4949 949 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 73 75 N 7 6772 4949 949 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 72 74 N 7 6187 4558 558 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 71 72 N 7 4968 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 68 68 NW 6 3584 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 NW 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 W 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NW 5 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 N 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com