Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 71 71 E 3 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 E 3 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 NW 3 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 NW 3 6288 5109 1109 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 84 87 NW 3 9127 7370 3370 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 86 92 NW 9 10917 9557 5557 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 87 94 NW 9 12142 10582 6582 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 88 95 NW 9 12799 10852 6852 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 90 97 W 10 13870 11953 7953 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 90 96 W 10 13424 11265 7265 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 91 96 W 10 13424 11265 7265 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 90 93 W 12 11448 9730 5730 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 88 89 W 12 9591 8429 4429 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 12 7407 5988 1988 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 80 80 NW 7 5730 4348 348 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 77 77 NW 7 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 75 75 NW 7 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 NW 5 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 NW 5 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 74 NW 5 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 N 5 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 N 5 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 N 5 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 NE 6 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 NE 6 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 NE 6 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 78 NW 8 4733 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 82 84 NW 8 7407 5988 1988 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 86 90 NW 8 9904 9080 5080 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 88 94 NW 10 12142 10582 6582 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 90 97 NW 10 13870 11953 7953 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 90 98 NW 10 14124 12605 8605 White 22
2 PM Mon 92 100 W 14 14531 13782 9782 White 24
3 PM Mon 93 100 W 14 14531 13782 9782 White 24
4 PM Mon 93 98 W 14 14124 12605 8605 White 22
5 PM Mon 92 95 N 15 12799 10852 6852 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 90 91 N 15 10645 9337 5337 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 86 86 N 15 8538 7074 3074 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 82 82 N 15 6288 5109 1109 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 78 78 N 15 4733 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 77 77 N 15 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 76 76 N 8 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 N 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 N 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 75 75 N 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 75 75 N 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 74 74 N 8 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 NW 8 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 NW 8 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 NW 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 80 NW 8 5730 4348 348 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 84 86 NW 8 8538 7074 3074 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 89 93 NW 8 11448 9730 5730 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 91 97 NW 13 13870 11953 7953 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 92 100 NW 13 14531 13782 9782 White 24
1 PM Tue 93 102 NW 13 14935 14561 10561 White 26
2 PM Tue 95 103 NW 13 15135 15135 11135 White 27
3 PM Tue 96 103 NW 13 15135 15135 11135 White 27
4 PM Tue 96 101 NW 13 14734 14037 10037 White 25
5 PM Tue 95 98 NW 15 14124 12605 8605 White 22
6 PM Tue 93 94 NW 15 12142 10582 6582 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 89 89 NW 15 9591 8429 4429 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 84 84 NW 15 7407 5988 1988 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 80 80 NW 15 5730 4348 348 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 15 4733 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 77 77 N 9 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 N 9 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 N 9 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 N 9 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 N 9 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 76 76 N 9 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 N 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 N 8 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 N 8 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 81 N 8 6011 4717 717 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 85 87 N 8 9127 7370 3370 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 90 94 N 8 12142 10582 6582 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 92 98 NW 10 14124 12605 8605 White 22
12 Noon Wed 94 102 NW 10 14935 14561 10561 White 26
1 PM Wed 95 103 NW 10 15135 15135 11135 White 27
2 PM Wed 97 105 NW 10 15536 15536 11536 White 29
3 PM Wed 98 105 NW 10 15536 15536 11536 White 29
4 PM Wed 98 103 NW 10 15135 15135 11135 White 27
5 PM Wed 97 100 NW 13 14531 13782 9782 White 24
6 PM Wed 95 96 NW 13 13424 11265 7265 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 90 90 NW 13 9904 9080 5080 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 85 85 NW 13 7953 6263 2263 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 80 80 NW 13 5730 4348 348 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 78 78 NW 13 4733 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 77 77 NW 6 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 NW 6 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 77 77 NW 6 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 76 76 NW 6 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 76 76 NW 6 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 76 76 NW 6 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 NW 8 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 74 74 NW 8 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 NW 8 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 80 81 NW 8 6011 4717 717 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 84 86 NW 8 8538 7074 3074 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 89 93 NW 8 11448 9730 5730 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 90 96 NW 13 13424 11265 7265 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 92 100 NW 13 14531 13782 9782 White 24
1 PM Thu 93 101 NW 13 14734 14037 10037 White 25
2 PM Thu 95 103 NW 13 15135 15135 11135 White 27
3 PM Thu 96 103 NW 13 15135 15135 11135 White 27
4 PM Thu 96 101 NW 13 14734 14037 10037 White 25
5 PM Thu 94 97 W 12 13870 11953 7953 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 92 93 W 12 11448 9730 5730 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 88 88 W 12 9386 7871 3871 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 12 7108 5688 1688 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 12 4733 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 12 3912 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 7 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 W 7 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 73 73 W 7 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 W 7 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 79 W 7 5141 4000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 82 84 W 7 7407 5988 1988 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 87 91 W 7 10645 9337 5337 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 89 96 W 9 13424 11265 7265 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 90 98 W 9 14124 12605 8605 White 22
1 PM Fri 91 100 W 9 14531 13782 9782 White 24
2 PM Fri 93 101 W 9 14734 14037 10037 White 25
3 PM Fri 94 101 W 9 14734 14037 10037 White 25
4 PM Fri 94 99 W 9 14327 13226 9226 White 23
5 PM Fri 93 96 NW 10 13424 11265 7265 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 91 92 NW 10 10917 9557 5557 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 86 86 NW 10 8538 7074 3074 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 81 81 NW 10 6011 4717 717 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 77 77 NW 10 4359 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 75 75 NW 10 3662 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 6 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 W 6 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 74 74 W 6 3410 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 6 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 W 6 3241 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 W 6 3241 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com