Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NW 7 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 48 NW 7 3545 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 53 NW 7 5396 4112 112 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 55 58 NW 7 8224 6172 2172 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 59 63 NW 7 11262 10087 6087 White 14
1 PM Fri 61 66 NW 7 11879 11430 7430 White 17
2 PM Fri 63 67 N 6 12083 11843 7843 White 18
3 PM Fri 63 66 N 6 11879 11430 7430 White 17
4 PM Fri 62 64 N 6 11470 10762 6762 White 15
5 PM Fri 61 62 N 13 11056 8501 4501 White 13
6 PM Fri 58 58 N 13 8224 6172 2172 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 55 55 N 13 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 8 5170 4000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 8 3783 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 8 3545 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 N 9 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 9 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 9 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 N 14 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 14 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 N 14 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 N 16 3271 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 16 4495 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 55 57 N 16 7659 5709 1709 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 60 64 N 16 11470 10762 6762 White 15
12 Noon Sat 64 69 N 16 12490 12490 8490 White 20
1 PM Sat 67 73 N 16 13299 13299 9299 White 24
2 PM Sat 69 74 N 16 13500 13500 9500 White 25
3 PM Sat 70 74 N 16 13500 13500 9500 White 25
4 PM Sat 70 73 N 16 13299 13299 9299 White 24
5 PM Sat 69 70 N 15 12692 12692 8692 White 21
6 PM Sat 65 65 N 15 11675 11098 7098 White 16
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 15 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 57 57 N 15 7659 5709 1709 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 15 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 55 55 N 15 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 9 5745 4482 482 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 N 9 5745 4482 482 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 5396 4112 112 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 5396 4112 112 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 9 5170 4000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 4495 4000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 50 50 NW 7 4122 4000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 48 48 NW 7 3545 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NW 7 3545 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 NW 7 3783 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 NW 7 5745 4482 482 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 58 60 NW 7 10297 7552 3552 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 63 67 N 12 12083 11843 7843 White 18
12 Noon Sun 67 72 N 12 13097 13097 9097 White 23
1 PM Sun 70 75 N 12 13701 13701 9701 White 26
2 PM Sun 72 77 N 12 14100 14100 10100 White 28
3 PM Sun 74 78 N 12 14299 14299 10299 White 29
4 PM Sun 74 77 N 12 14100 14100 10100 White 28
5 PM Sun 73 74 N 13 13500 13500 9500 White 25
6 PM Sun 69 69 N 13 12490 12490 8490 White 20
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 13 11879 11430 7430 White 17
8 PM Sun 62 62 N 13 11056 8501 4501 White 13
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 13 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 60 60 N 13 10297 7552 3552 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 6 10297 7552 3552 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 6 10297 7552 3552 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 6 8224 6172 2172 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 4495 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 4495 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 56 57 NE 6 7659 5709 1709 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 63 65 NE 6 11675 11098 7098 White 16
11 AM Mon 70 74 N 5 13500 13500 9500 White 25
12 Noon Mon 75 80 N 5 14697 14697 10697 White 31
1 PM Mon 76 82 N 5 15092 15092 11092 White 33
2 PM Mon 77 82 N 5 15092 15092 11092 White 33
3 PM Mon 78 82 N 5 15092 15092 11092 White 33
4 PM Mon 78 81 N 5 14894 14894 10894 White 32
5 PM Mon 76 77 N 9 14100 14100 10100 White 28
6 PM Mon 72 72 N 9 13097 13097 9097 White 23
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 9 12083 11843 7843 White 18
8 PM Mon 62 62 N 9 11056 8501 4501 White 13
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 9 10297 7552 3552 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 59 59 N 9 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 6 8224 6172 2172 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 7659 5709 1709 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 6868 5384 1384 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 6868 5384 1384 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 55 55 N 6 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 3 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 3 6214 5137 1137 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 3 6868 5384 1384 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 3 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 3 11675 11098 7098 White 16
10 AM Tue 70 73 NE 3 13299 13299 9299 White 24
11 AM Tue 75 79 E 3 14498 14498 10498 White 30
12 Noon Tue 79 84 E 3 15487 15487 11487 White 35
1 PM Tue 80 86 E 3 15881 15881 11881 White 37
2 PM Tue 81 86 E 3 15881 15881 11881 White 37
3 PM Tue 81 85 E 3 15684 15684 11684 White 36
4 PM Tue 80 83 E 3 15290 15290 11290 White 34
5 PM Tue 77 78 E 3 14299 14299 10299 White 29
6 PM Tue 73 73 E 3 13299 13299 9299 White 24
7 PM Tue 68 68 E 3 12286 12286 8286 White 19
8 PM Tue 65 65 E 3 11675 11098 7098 White 16
9 PM Tue 63 63 E 3 11262 10087 6087 White 14
10 PM Tue 62 62 E 3 11056 8501 4501 White 13
11 PM Tue 62 62 NE 2 11056 8501 4501 White 13
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 NE 2 11056 8501 4501 White 13
1 AM Wed 61 61 NE 2 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 10297 7552 3552 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 2 8558 6776 2776 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 58 58 NE 2 8224 6172 2172 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 57 57 E 2 7659 5709 1709 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 57 57 E 2 7659 5709 1709 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 58 58 E 2 8224 6172 2172 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 66 67 E 2 12083 11843 7843 White 18
10 AM Wed 72 74 E 2 13500 13500 9500 White 25
11 AM Wed 77 80 E 5 14697 14697 10697 White 31
12 Noon Wed 80 84 E 5 15487 15487 11487 White 35
1 PM Wed 82 87 E 5 16078 16078 12078 White 38
2 PM Wed 82 86 E 5 15881 15881 11881 White 37
3 PM Wed 83 86 E 5 15881 15881 11881 White 37
4 PM Wed 83 85 E 5 15684 15684 11684 White 36
5 PM Wed 81 82 E 5 15092 15092 11092 White 33
6 PM Wed 77 77 E 5 14100 14100 10100 White 28
7 PM Wed 73 73 E 5 13299 13299 9299 White 24
8 PM Wed 68 68 E 5 12286 12286 8286 White 19
9 PM Wed 66 66 E 5 11879 11430 7430 White 17
10 PM Wed 65 65 E 5 11675 11098 7098 White 16
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 11470 10762 6762 White 15
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 N 5 11262 10087 6087 White 14
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 5 11056 8501 4501 White 13
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 10848 8170 4170 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com