Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 NE 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NE 5 3629 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NW 5 4862 4112 112 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 63 64 NW 5 5714 4845 845 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 65 66 NW 5 6298 5408 1408 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 65 66 S 6 6298 5408 1408 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 66 67 S 6 6553 5693 1693 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 65 65 S 6 6022 5122 1122 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 60 60 S 6 4503 4000 0 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 57 57 S 6 3982 4000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 55 55 S 6 3725 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 53 53 SE 3 3550 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 SE 3 3629 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SE 3 3550 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SE 6 3470 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SE 6 3470 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SE 6 3470 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 SE 7 3550 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 S 8 3982 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 59 60 S 8 4503 4000 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 60 61 S 8 4862 4112 112 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 61 62 S 9 5138 4255 255 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 61 61 S 9 4862 4112 112 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 60 60 S 9 4503 4000 0 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 3725 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 51 51 SW 7 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 SW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 SW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 SW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 SW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 7 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 NW 15 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 NW 15 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 NW 15 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 46 NW 15 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 46 NW 15 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 45 45 NW 15 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 NW 13 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 NW 13 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 NW 13 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NW 13 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 NW 13 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 NW 13 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 NW 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 46 NW 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 47 NW 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 47 NW 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 NW 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 NW 8 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 43 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 NW 12 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 NW 6 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 NW 6 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 NW 6 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 N 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 N 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 N 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 N 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 46 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 50 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 50 51 NW 2 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 51 NW 2 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 51 NW 2 3391 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 50 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 48 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 2 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 S 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 S 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 SW 3 3470 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 53 SW 3 3550 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 53 SW 3 3550 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 54 SW 3 3629 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 SW 3 3550 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 NW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 NW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 NW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 NW 3 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 5 3356 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com