Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 37 37 SE 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 SE 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 S 6 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 S 6 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 S 6 5080 4486 486 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 50 51 SW 7 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 53 54 SW 7 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 53 54 SW 7 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 54 55 NW 7 7966 6344 2344 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 53 54 NW 7 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 52 52 NW 7 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 7 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 50 50 W 7 5410 4640 640 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 4492 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 43 43 SE 2 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SE 2 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 SE 2 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 SE 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 SE 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 SE 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NW 9 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NW 9 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NW 9 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 N 13 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 N 13 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 48 N 13 4800 4209 209 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 50 52 N 10 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 51 54 N 10 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 52 55 N 10 7966 6344 2344 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 52 55 NW 13 7966 6344 2344 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 52 54 NW 13 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 51 52 NW 13 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 50 51 NW 10 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 48 48 NW 10 4800 4209 209 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 44 44 NW 10 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 N 10 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 N 10 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 10 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 NE 9 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NE 9 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NE 9 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 NE 8 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 NE 8 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NE 8 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 S 6 4218 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 50 52 S 6 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 54 57 S 9 8591 7054 3054 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 57 61 S 9 10740 8832 4832 White 17
1 PM Sun 58 62 S 9 10949 9484 5484 White 18
2 PM Sun 58 62 S 14 10949 9484 5484 White 18
3 PM Sun 58 61 S 14 10740 8832 4832 White 17
4 PM Sun 57 59 S 14 9632 8276 4276 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 56 57 S 14 8591 7054 3054 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 54 54 S 14 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 14 5080 4486 486 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 44 44 SE 13 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 SE 13 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 SE 13 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 SE 12 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 SE 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 SE 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 S 14 4218 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 51 52 S 14 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 54 56 S 13 8314 6810 2810 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 56 58 S 13 8899 7790 3790 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 56 59 S 13 9632 8276 4276 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 57 60 S 13 10335 8540 4540 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 56 58 S 13 8899 7790 3790 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 56 57 S 13 8591 7054 3054 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 55 55 SW 10 7966 6344 2344 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 54 54 SW 10 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 10 5410 4640 640 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 46 46 SW 10 4492 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 45 45 SW 10 4218 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 44 44 SW 10 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 S 7 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 S 7 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 S 7 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 S 7 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 S 7 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 S 7 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 S 8 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 S 8 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 S 8 4646 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 50 51 S 8 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 53 54 S 15 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 54 55 S 15 7966 6344 2344 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 55 56 S 15 8314 6810 2810 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 55 56 S 15 8314 6810 2810 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 54 55 S 15 7966 6344 2344 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 54 54 S 15 7076 5866 1866 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 53 53 S 14 6864 5377 1377 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 51 51 S 14 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 47 47 S 14 4646 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 44 44 S 14 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 S 14 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 S 14 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 S 12 3046 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 S 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 S 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 S 14 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 4492 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 48 50 W 18 5410 4640 640 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 49 51 W 18 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 49 52 W 18 6391 5067 1067 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 49 51 W 18 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 49 51 W 18 5907 4793 793 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 48 49 W 18 5080 4486 486 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 48 48 W 16 4800 4209 209 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 16 4492 4000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 16 3486 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 W 16 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 W 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 W 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 W 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 W 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 W 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 W 12 3038 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com