Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 1 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 1 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 1 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 NW 2 2899 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 NW 2 5012 4156 156 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 68 71 NW 2 7746 6943 2943 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 73 77 W 8 9347 8604 4604 White 26
12 Noon Wed 74 80 W 8 10010 9943 5943 White 29
1 PM Wed 74 80 W 8 10010 9943 5943 White 29
2 PM Wed 75 80 W 10 10010 9943 5943 White 29
3 PM Wed 76 80 W 10 10010 9943 5943 White 29
4 PM Wed 75 78 W 10 9565 9128 5128 White 27
5 PM Wed 73 74 W 12 8705 7710 3710 White 23
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 12 7489 6685 2685 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 12 6102 5282 1282 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 5201 5009 1009 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 4949 4025 25 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 55 55 NW 6 4028 4000 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 53 53 NW 3 3738 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NW 3 3293 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NW 3 2899 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 N 9 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 7 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 N 7 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 N 6 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 N 6 4159 4000 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 64 67 N 6 6713 5422 1422 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 68 72 NW 7 7977 7200 3200 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 70 76 NW 7 9133 8126 4126 White 25
1 PM Thu 71 77 NW 7 9347 8604 4604 White 26
2 PM Thu 72 77 N 9 9347 8604 4604 White 26
3 PM Thu 72 76 N 9 9133 8126 4126 White 25
4 PM Thu 72 75 N 9 8919 7951 3951 White 24
5 PM Thu 71 72 N 10 7977 7200 3200 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 68 68 N 10 6973 5620 1620 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 64 64 N 10 5431 5134 1134 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 12 5138 4946 946 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 57 57 N 12 4290 4000 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 54 54 N 12 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 12 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 12 2899 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 12 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 N 10 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 10 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 10 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 9 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 9 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 9 2572 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 N 7 3738 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 59 60 N 7 5075 4286 286 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 66 69 N 7 7232 6036 2036 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 73 77 N 8 9347 8604 4604 White 26
12 Noon Fri 76 82 N 8 10437 10437 6437 White 31
1 PM Fri 77 83 N 8 10646 10646 6646 White 32
2 PM Fri 77 83 N 9 10646 10646 6646 White 32
3 PM Fri 77 82 N 9 10437 10437 6437 White 31
4 PM Fri 77 80 N 9 10010 9943 5943 White 29
5 PM Fri 76 77 N 9 9347 8604 4604 White 26
6 PM Fri 73 73 N 9 8181 7455 3455 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 68 68 N 9 6973 5620 1620 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 64 64 NE 12 5431 5134 1134 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 60 60 NE 12 5075 4286 286 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 58 58 NE 12 4949 4025 25 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 55 55 NE 9 4028 4000 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NE 9 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 9 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 3293 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 3293 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 3293 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 NE 7 2899 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 7 3293 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NE 7 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 4159 4000 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 64 65 NE 6 5636 5197 1197 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 72 75 NE 6 8919 7951 3951 White 24
11 AM Sat 79 83 NE 7 10646 10646 6646 White 32
12 Noon Sat 82 88 NE 7 11681 11681 7681 White 37
1 PM Sat 83 89 NE 7 11887 11887 7887 White 38
2 PM Sat 82 88 N 9 11681 11681 7681 White 37
3 PM Sat 83 88 N 9 11681 11681 7681 White 37
4 PM Sat 83 86 N 9 11270 11270 7270 White 35
5 PM Sat 82 83 NW 8 10646 10646 6646 White 32
6 PM Sat 78 78 NW 8 9565 9128 5128 White 27
7 PM Sat 73 73 NW 8 8181 7455 3455 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 68 68 N 5 6973 5620 1620 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 5 5431 5134 1134 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 61 61 N 5 5138 4946 946 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 58 58 NW 3 4949 4025 25 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NW 3 4159 4000 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 55 55 NW 3 4028 4000 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 53 53 NW 3 3738 4000 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 4949 4025 25 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 66 67 NE 5 6713 5422 1422 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 74 77 NE 5 9347 8604 4604 White 26
11 AM Sun 81 84 NE 9 10854 10854 6854 White 33
12 Noon Sun 85 89 NE 9 11887 11887 7887 White 38
1 PM Sun 85 89 NE 9 11887 11887 7887 White 38
2 PM Sun 85 89 W 12 11887 11887 7887 White 38
3 PM Sun 85 88 W 12 11681 11681 7681 White 37
4 PM Sun 84 86 W 12 11270 11270 7270 White 35
5 PM Sun 83 84 NW 13 10854 10854 6854 White 33
6 PM Sun 79 79 NW 13 9787 9585 5585 White 28
7 PM Sun 73 73 NW 13 8181 7455 3455 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 6973 5620 1620 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 5431 5134 1134 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 5138 4946 946 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 4949 4025 25 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 7 4159 4000 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 7 4028 4000 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 6 3738 4000 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 53 53 W 6 3738 4000 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 3555 4000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 7 4159 4000 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 62 63 N 7 5291 5072 1072 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 70 72 N 7 7977 7200 3200 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 77 81 N 12 10228 10228 6228 White 30
12 Noon Mon 80 85 N 12 11062 11062 7062 White 34
1 PM Mon 81 87 N 12 11477 11477 7477 White 36
2 PM Mon 80 85 N 15 11062 11062 7062 White 34
3 PM Mon 81 85 N 15 11062 11062 7062 White 34
4 PM Mon 81 84 N 15 10854 10854 6854 White 33
5 PM Mon 79 80 N 15 10010 9943 5943 White 29
6 PM Mon 76 76 N 15 9133 8126 4126 White 25
7 PM Mon 71 71 N 15 7746 6943 2943 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 67 67 NW 8 6713 5422 1422 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 5291 5072 1072 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 5075 4286 286 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 4949 4025 25 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NW 7 4159 4000 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 55 55 NW 7 4028 4000 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 3897 4000 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 53 53 W 6 3738 4000 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 53 53 W 6 3738 4000 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com