Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NNE 4 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 8 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 9 11 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 6 9 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 4 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 E 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 SSE 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 73 S 4 5 5419 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 76 81 SSE 6 8 9349 8369 4369 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 81 88 S 6 9 14386 12107 8107 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 82 90 S 6 9 15292 13512 9512 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 83 91 SW 6 8 15632 14156 10156 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 84 92 WSW 8 9 15968 14769 10769 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 85 91 SW 8 10 15632 14156 10156 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 85 89 SW 8 9 14948 12831 8831 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 84 86 WSW 10 12 13055 10480 6480 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 81 82 WSW 9 11 9863 8812 4812 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 8 10 7814 5683 1683 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 3 3 3300 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 N 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 3 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 NW 3 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 73 WNW 3 4 5419 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 76 81 WNW 4 5 9349 8369 4369 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 81 88 WNW 6 9 14386 12107 8107 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 84 92 WNW 6 9 15968 14769 10769 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 84 92 WNW 6 9 15968 14769 10769 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 84 91 WNW 10 12 15632 14156 10156 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 85 91 WNW 10 12 15632 14156 10156 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 85 89 WNW 10 12 14948 12831 8831 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 83 85 WNW 11 13 12326 9705 5705 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 79 80 WNW 11 13 9247 7660 3660 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 11 13 5704 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 69 69 NNW 2 3 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 NNW 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 NNW 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 NNW 3 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NNW 3 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 3 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 N 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 N 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 NW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 69 NW 5 6 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 77 NW 5 6 7814 5683 1683 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 77 84 WNW 9 11 11543 9330 5330 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 80 88 WNW 9 11 14386 12107 8107 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 81 89 WNW 9 11 14948 12831 8831 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 81 89 W 11 13 14948 12831 8831 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 82 88 W 11 13 14386 12107 8107 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 81 85 W 11 13 12326 9705 5705 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 79 81 WNW 11 13 9349 8369 4369 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 75 76 WNW 11 13 6602 5401 1401 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 11 13 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 NW 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 NW 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NW 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 2 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 WNW 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 WNW 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 WNW 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 W 1 1 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 1 1 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 1 1 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 50 SW 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 56 SW 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 65 SW 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 73 SW 5 8 5419 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 70 78 SW 5 8 8421 5965 1965 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 71 79 SW 5 8 8905 6470 2470 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 71 78 WSW 8 10 8421 5965 1965 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 72 78 WSW 8 10 8421 5965 1965 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 72 76 WSW 8 10 6602 5401 1401 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 71 73 W 8 10 5419 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 68 69 W 8 10 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 WSW 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 6 8 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 WSW 6 8 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 6 8 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 SW 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 SW 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 64 SW 4 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 72 WSW 6 9 3974 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 76 WSW 6 9 6602 5401 1401 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 70 78 WSW 6 9 8421 5965 1965 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 72 79 W 8 10 8905 6470 2470 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 73 79 W 8 10 8905 6470 2470 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 73 77 W 8 10 7814 5683 1683 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 72 74 W 8 10 5704 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 70 71 W 8 10 3639 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 6 9 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 6 9 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 6 9 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 5 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 52 WSW 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 60 WSW 3 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 68 WSW 3 4 2614 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 77 WSW 5 6 7814 5683 1683 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 73 81 WSW 5 6 9349 8369 4369 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 74 82 WSW 5 6 9863 8812 4812 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 83 W 9 11 10690 9228 5228 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 76 82 W 9 11 9863 8812 4812 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 77 81 W 9 11 9349 8369 4369 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 76 78 WNW 8 10 8421 5965 1965 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 73 74 WNW 8 10 5704 4000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 8 10 2959 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 WNW 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 8 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com