Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 41 41 N 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 N 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 N 9 4245 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 N 7 5684 5116 1116 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 55 57 N 7 5803 5340 1340 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 55 57 N 7 5803 5340 1340 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 54 55 N 8 5553 4948 948 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 53 53 N 9 5126 4241 241 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 49 49 N 12 4118 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 N 12 3610 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 N 14 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 N 18 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 N 20 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 N 21 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 N 22 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 N 21 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 N 21 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 N 18 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 N 17 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 N 15 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 13 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 N 13 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 N 14 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 N 13 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 N 12 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 39 NE 15 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 N 9 3610 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 51 N 9 4817 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 51 53 N 9 5126 4241 241 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 52 54 NE 12 5355 4791 791 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 51 52 NE 12 4956 4115 115 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 50 50 NE 12 4245 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 NE 7 3991 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 NE 7 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 NE 7 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 NE 7 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 NE 7 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NE 7 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 E 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 E 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 E 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 E 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 E 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 E 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 N 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 N 1 3737 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 52 NW 3 4956 4115 115 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 55 57 NW 3 5803 5340 1340 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 57 59 NW 3 6045 5675 1675 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 57 59 W 3 6045 5675 1675 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 57 58 W 3 5924 5540 1540 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 56 56 W 3 5684 5116 1116 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 0 5126 4241 241 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 49 49 W 0 4118 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 W 0 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 E 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 E 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 E 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 SE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 SE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 SE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 SE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 3 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 4118 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 55 E 3 5553 4948 948 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 58 60 E 3 6167 5794 1794 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 60 62 E 3 6410 6035 2035 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 3 6410 6035 2035 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 60 61 E 3 6288 5914 1914 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 59 59 E 3 6045 5675 1675 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 56 56 NE 3 5684 5116 1116 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 4956 4115 115 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 47 47 NE 3 3864 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 NE 2 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 3 3610 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 4245 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 NE 5 5684 5116 1116 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 59 60 NE 5 6167 5794 1794 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 61 62 NE 5 6410 6035 2035 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 62 63 N 3 6531 6156 2156 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 61 62 N 3 6410 6035 2035 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 60 60 N 3 6167 5794 1794 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 57 57 N 3 5803 5340 1340 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 53 53 N 3 5126 4241 241 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 48 48 N 3 3991 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 3 3610 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 N 3 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 N 2 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 N 2 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 N 2 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 5 3355 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 N 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 3483 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 3991 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 N 5 5355 4791 791 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 56 58 N 5 5924 5540 1540 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 58 60 N 5 6167 5794 1794 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 59 60 N 6 6167 5794 1794 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 59 60 N 6 6167 5794 1794 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 58 58 N 6 5924 5540 1540 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 55 55 N 6 5553 4948 948 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 51 51 N 6 4817 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 46 46 N 6 3737 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com