Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 7 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 N 7 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 N 10 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 64 N 10 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 66 71 N 10 8005 7764 3764 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 67 74 N 12 8789 7993 3993 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 68 76 N 12 9419 8417 4417 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 70 78 N 12 10327 9046 5046 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 72 80 N 12 10786 9749 5749 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 74 80 N 12 10786 9749 5749 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 74 79 N 12 10557 9357 5357 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 72 75 N 12 9105 8098 4098 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 71 72 N 12 8148 7840 3840 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 68 68 N 12 7775 7535 3535 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 63 63 N 8 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 8 4640 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 59 59 N 8 4411 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 4091 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 5 4091 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 4091 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 3561 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 3016 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 3016 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 4091 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 N 8 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 69 72 N 8 8148 7840 3840 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 74 79 N 8 10557 9357 5357 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 76 83 N 10 11747 10731 6731 White 24
12 Noon Mon 77 85 N 10 12162 11317 7317 White 26
1 PM Mon 78 86 N 10 12369 11765 7765 White 27
2 PM Mon 80 88 N 12 12781 12442 8442 White 29
3 PM Mon 82 88 N 12 12781 12442 8442 White 29
4 PM Mon 82 87 N 12 12575 12115 8115 White 28
5 PM Mon 81 84 N 13 11956 11005 7005 White 25
6 PM Mon 79 80 N 13 10786 9749 5749 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 76 76 N 13 9419 8417 4417 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 70 70 N 13 7928 7687 3687 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 67 67 N 13 7698 6881 2881 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 66 66 N 13 7621 5932 1932 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 65 65 N 7 7545 5354 1354 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 N 7 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 64 64 N 7 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 5392 4403 403 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 5392 4403 403 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 4869 4079 79 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 61 61 NE 5 4869 4079 79 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 61 61 NE 5 4869 4079 79 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 63 63 NE 5 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 67 68 NE 5 7775 7535 3535 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 73 76 NE 5 9419 8417 4417 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 78 83 NE 5 11747 10731 6731 White 24
11 AM Tue 80 86 NW 13 12369 11765 7765 White 27
12 Noon Tue 81 89 NW 13 12987 12644 8644 White 30
1 PM Tue 82 90 NW 13 13192 12812 8812 White 31
2 PM Tue 84 92 NW 13 13598 13598 9598 White 33
3 PM Tue 86 92 NW 13 13598 13598 9598 White 33
4 PM Tue 86 90 NW 13 13192 12812 8812 White 31
5 PM Tue 84 87 W 14 12575 12115 8115 White 28
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 14 11747 10731 6731 White 24
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 14 10327 9046 5046 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 14 7928 7687 3687 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 14 7621 5932 1932 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 14 7545 5354 1354 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 7 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 7 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 7 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 61 61 W 7 4869 4079 79 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 61 61 W 7 4869 4079 79 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 7 4640 4000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 7 4411 4000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 59 59 W 7 4411 4000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 60 60 W 7 4640 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 62 63 W 7 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 66 69 W 7 7851 7611 3611 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 68 73 W 7 8470 7917 3917 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 69 75 W 7 9105 8098 4098 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 70 77 W 7 9864 8733 4733 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 71 78 W 7 10327 9046 5046 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 71 78 W 7 10327 9046 5046 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 73 79 W 7 10557 9357 5357 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 72 76 W 7 9419 8417 4417 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 71 73 W 14 8470 7917 3917 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 68 69 W 14 7851 7611 3611 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 14 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 56 56 W 14 3016 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 W 14 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 14 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 W 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 57 W 9 3561 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 63 W 9 5979 4631 631 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 59 65 W 8 7545 5354 1354 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 60 67 W 8 7698 6881 2881 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 61 69 W 8 7851 7611 3611 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 62 69 W 8 7851 7611 3611 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 64 70 W 8 7928 7687 3687 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 63 67 W 8 7698 6881 2881 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 62 64 W 12 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 60 61 W 12 4869 4079 79 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 3561 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NW 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NW 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NW 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NW 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NW 12 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NW 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 NW 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 NW 9 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 60 NW 9 4640 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 62 67 NW 9 7698 6881 2881 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 64 70 N 7 7928 7687 3687 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 65 72 N 7 8148 7840 3840 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 67 75 N 7 9105 8098 4098 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 68 75 N 7 9105 8098 4098 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 71 77 N 7 9864 8733 4733 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 70 74 N 7 8789 7993 3993 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 69 71 NW 16 8005 7764 3764 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 67 68 NW 16 7775 7535 3535 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 16 7019 4858 858 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 16 4091 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 16 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 16 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 N 8 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 8 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 N 8 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 2749 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 2749 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com