Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 46 46 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 45 45 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 48 48 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 49 49 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 49 49 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 50 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 50 50 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 49 49 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 48 48 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 44 44 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 43 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 43 43 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 43 43 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 39 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 44 44 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 49 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 50 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 54 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 52 54 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 54 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 51 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 47 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 45 45 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 46 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 46 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 48 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 54 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 56 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 58 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 58 59 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 60 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 58 58 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 56 56 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 51 51 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 49 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 49 49 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 53 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 55 56 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 57 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 57 58 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 56 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 48 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 46 46 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 43 43 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 43 43 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 39 39 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 38 38 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 37 37 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 36 36 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 36 36 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 39 39 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 41 41 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 45 46 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 46 47 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 48 50 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 48 50 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 49 50 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 48 48 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 46 46 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 42 42 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 41 41 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 40 40 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 39 39 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 39 39 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 39 39 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 40 40 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 35 35 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 41 41 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 46 47 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 48 50 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 50 52 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 51 53 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 52 53 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 51 52 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 45 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 43 43 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 43 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 39 39 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com