Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 7 3282 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 7 3282 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 7 3282 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 7 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 SE 7 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 68 71 SE 7 6523 5151 1151 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 70 74 W 8 7401 6489 2489 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 71 77 W 8 8033 7376 3376 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 72 78 W 8 8430 7570 3570 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 73 79 NW 12 8822 7763 3763 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 74 79 NW 12 8822 7763 3763 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 74 77 NW 12 8033 7376 3376 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 73 74 NW 12 7401 6489 2489 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 70 70 NW 12 6186 4494 494 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 64 64 NW 12 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 3377 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 5 3329 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 6 3282 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 6 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 3306 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 3282 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 3282 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 3 3258 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 3258 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 3258 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 3258 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 10 3994 4000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 71 74 N 10 7401 6489 2489 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 74 78 N 10 8430 7570 3570 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 75 81 N 10 9589 8367 4367 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 76 82 N 10 9964 8754 4754 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 78 84 N 13 10616 9513 5513 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 80 85 N 13 11897 9885 5885 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 80 83 N 13 10309 9136 5136 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 79 80 N 16 9208 7973 3973 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 76 76 N 16 7791 7170 3170 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 69 69 N 16 5847 4226 226 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 63 63 N 16 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 61 61 N 16 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 N 16 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 15 3377 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 N 15 3377 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 N 15 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 15 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 15 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 15 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 3329 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 3329 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 3329 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 9 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 67 68 NE 9 5192 4000 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 74 77 NE 9 8033 7376 3376 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 77 81 N 12 9589 8367 4367 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 78 84 N 12 10616 9513 5513 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 80 86 N 12 12158 10241 6241 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 82 88 N 12 12675 11785 7785 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 83 88 N 12 12675 11785 7785 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 83 86 N 12 12158 10241 6241 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 82 83 N 12 10309 9136 5136 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 79 79 N 12 8822 7763 3763 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 72 72 N 12 6869 5820 1820 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 66 66 N 12 4233 4000 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 64 64 N 12 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 64 64 N 12 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 62 62 NE 7 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NE 7 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 63 63 NE 7 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 62 62 NE 7 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 62 62 NE 7 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 61 61 NE 7 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 SE 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 SE 6 3994 4000 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 69 70 SE 6 6186 4494 494 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 75 78 SE 6 8430 7570 3570 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 78 82 SW 7 9964 8754 4754 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 78 83 SW 7 10309 9136 5136 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 80 86 SW 7 12158 10241 6241 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 81 87 SW 7 12417 10544 6544 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 82 86 SW 7 12158 10241 6241 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 82 85 SW 7 11897 9885 5885 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 81 82 W 9 9964 8754 4754 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 9 8430 7570 3570 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 6869 5820 1820 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 9 4505 4000 0 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 6 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 63 63 W 6 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 61 61 W 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 W 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 W 6 3994 4000 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 69 70 W 6 6186 4494 494 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 74 77 W 6 8033 7376 3376 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 77 81 W 7 9589 8367 4367 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 78 83 W 7 10309 9136 5136 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 79 85 W 7 11897 9885 5885 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 80 86 W 7 12158 10241 6241 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 82 86 W 7 12158 10241 6241 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 82 85 W 7 11897 9885 5885 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 80 81 NW 7 9589 8367 4367 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 78 78 NW 7 8430 7570 3570 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 71 71 NW 7 6523 5151 1151 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 66 66 NW 7 4233 4000 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 64 64 NW 7 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 63 63 NW 7 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 3529 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 NW 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NW 6 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NW 6 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 NW 6 3760 4000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 68 69 NW 6 5847 4226 226 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 73 76 NW 6 7791 7170 3170 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 76 80 W 7 9208 7973 3973 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 77 82 W 7 9964 8754 4754 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 78 84 W 7 10616 9513 5513 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 7 11897 9885 5885 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 80 84 W 7 10616 9513 5513 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 7 10309 9136 5136 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 79 80 NW 8 9208 7973 3973 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 76 76 NW 8 7791 7170 3170 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 70 70 NW 8 6186 4494 494 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 8 3994 4000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 8 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 8 3469 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 61 61 W 7 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 7 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 7 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 7 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 7 3401 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 7 3401 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com