Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Altitude (f): 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 61 61 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 SE 1 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 SE 1 4662 4590 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 77 80 SE 1 7373 5953 1363 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 82 86 NW 6 9835 9061 4471 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 85 90 NW 6 12146 10579 5989 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 87 92 NW 6 13452 11273 6683 White 19
2 PM Sun 88 93 NW 8 13663 11971 7381 White 20
3 PM Sun 89 93 NW 8 13663 11971 7381 White 20
4 PM Sun 89 92 NW 8 13452 11273 6683 White 19
5 PM Sun 88 90 W 8 12146 10579 5989 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 87 88 W 8 10911 9551 4961 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 8 9582 8391 3801 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 6 8475 7043 2453 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 6 6249 5036 446 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 74 74 W 6 4662 4590 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 70 70 S 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 S 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 S 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 70 E 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 76 E 3 5636 4590 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 79 83 E 3 9107 7342 2752 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 84 88 N 6 10911 9551 4961 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 87 92 N 6 13452 11273 6683 White 19
1 PM Mon 89 95 N 6 14076 13259 8669 White 22
2 PM Mon 90 96 W 8 14282 13800 9210 White 23
3 PM Mon 91 96 W 8 14282 13800 9210 White 23
4 PM Mon 91 95 W 8 14076 13259 8669 White 22
5 PM Mon 90 93 W 9 13663 11971 7381 White 20
6 PM Mon 89 90 W 9 12146 10579 5989 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 87 87 W 9 10636 9325 4735 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 9 9107 7342 2752 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 80 80 W 9 7373 5953 1363 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 9 5636 4590 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 72 72 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 71 SE 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 SE 5 5969 4654 64 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 81 85 SE 5 9582 8391 3801 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 86 91 N 6 12812 10852 6262 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 90 96 N 6 14282 13800 9210 White 23
1 PM Tue 92 99 N 6 14895 14895 10305 White 26
2 PM Tue 93 100 N 6 15098 15098 10508 White 27
3 PM Tue 94 100 N 6 15098 15098 10508 White 27
4 PM Tue 94 98 N 6 14692 14625 10035 White 25
5 PM Tue 93 96 W 9 14282 13800 9210 White 23
6 PM Tue 91 92 W 9 13452 11273 6683 White 19
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 9 10911 9551 4961 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 85 85 W 9 9582 8391 3801 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 80 80 W 9 7373 5953 1363 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 5636 4590 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 73 73 SE 6 4286 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 SE 6 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 SE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 SE 3 5047 4590 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 79 83 SE 3 9107 7342 2752 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 85 91 N 9 12812 10852 6262 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 89 96 N 9 14282 13800 9210 White 23
1 PM Wed 92 99 N 9 14895 14895 10305 White 26
2 PM Wed 93 100 N 9 15098 15098 10508 White 27
3 PM Wed 93 99 N 9 14895 14895 10305 White 26
4 PM Wed 92 97 N 9 14487 14056 9466 White 24
5 PM Wed 91 94 W 10 13871 12631 8041 White 21
6 PM Wed 90 91 W 10 12812 10852 6262 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 10 10911 9551 4961 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 9582 8391 3801 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 7894 6230 1640 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 5636 4590 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 72 72 SW 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SW 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 SW 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 SW 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 E 2 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 E 2 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 E 2 5636 4590 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 80 83 E 2 9107 7342 2752 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 85 90 NW 5 12146 10579 5989 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 89 95 NW 5 14076 13259 8669 White 22
1 PM Thu 91 98 NW 5 14692 14625 10035 White 25
2 PM Thu 93 100 NW 5 15098 15098 10508 White 27
3 PM Thu 93 99 NW 5 14895 14895 10305 White 26
4 PM Thu 93 97 NW 5 14487 14056 9466 White 24
5 PM Thu 91 94 W 8 13871 12631 8041 White 21
6 PM Thu 90 91 W 8 12812 10852 6262 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 87 87 W 8 10636 9325 4735 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 8 9107 7342 2752 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 7071 5608 1018 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 4662 4590 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 70 70 NW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 NW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 NW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 NW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 NW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 NE 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 NE 3 4662 4590 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 78 82 NE 3 8475 7043 2453 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 83 88 NW 5 10911 9551 4961 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 87 93 NW 5 13663 11971 7381 White 20
1 PM Fri 90 97 NW 5 14487 14056 9466 White 24
2 PM Fri 92 99 NW 5 14895 14895 10305 White 26
3 PM Fri 93 99 NW 5 14895 14895 10305 White 26
4 PM Fri 93 97 NW 5 14487 14056 9466 White 24
5 PM Fri 92 95 W 9 14076 13259 8669 White 22
6 PM Fri 90 91 W 9 12812 10852 6262 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 9 10636 9325 4735 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 9107 7342 2752 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 5969 4654 64 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 SW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 SW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SW 3 3970 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com