Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Altitude (f): 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 31 31 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 N 2 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 61 N 2 4833 4590 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 63 65 N 2 6272 5630 1040 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 63 64 N 5 6062 4822 232 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 62 63 N 5 5852 4590 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 59 59 N 5 4320 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 N 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 55 N 2 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 N 2 4833 4590 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 62 64 N 2 6062 4822 232 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 62 63 NW 3 5852 4590 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 60 61 NW 3 4833 4590 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 57 57 NW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 53 53 SW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 SW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 SW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 SW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 SW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 SW 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 SE 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 SE 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SE 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SE 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SE 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 SE 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 58 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 62 E 7 5640 4590 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 61 63 E 7 5852 4590 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 59 60 E 7 4530 4590 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 55 55 E 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 E 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 E 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 E 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 E 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 E 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 SE 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 59 E 5 4320 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 59 E 5 4320 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 58 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 SE 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 SE 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SE 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 SE 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 SE 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 SE 3 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 E 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 54 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 56 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 57 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 57 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 56 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 SE 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 51 SW 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 SW 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 SW 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 SW 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 SW 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 SW 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 S 6 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 S 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 S 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 S 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 S 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 S 5 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 51 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 47 47 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 45 45 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 S 9 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 S 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 S 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 S 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 S 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 S 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 S 7 3635 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com