Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Altitude (f): 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 S 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 S 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 55 W 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 60 W 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 61 W 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 63 NW 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 NW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 NW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SE 2 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 SE 2 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 SE 2 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 57 W 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 59 W 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 61 W 8 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 W 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 S 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 NW 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 53 NW 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 55 NW 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 56 NW 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 57 NW 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 57 NW 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 57 E 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 E 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 E 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 E 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 E 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 51 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 56 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 59 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 60 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 64 E 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 66 E 5 4083 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 67 E 5 4490 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 66 66 E 5 4083 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 65 N 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 62 N 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 N 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 SE 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SE 3 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 61 SW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 63 SW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 64 SW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 65 SW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 64 SW 5 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 63 W 7 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 W 7 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 7 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 7 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 7 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 S 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 S 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 S 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 S 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 S 6 3770 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com