Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 27 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 27 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 26 NE 1 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 25 W 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 29 N 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 N 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 36 NW 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 40 NW 12 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 42 NW 18 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 42 NW 20 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 40 NW 18 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 39 NW 20 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 NW 22 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 NW 23 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 32 NW 21 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 31 NW 20 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 29 N 16 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 29 N 13 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 28 N 12 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 27 N 12 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 26 N 12 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 25 N 12 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 24 N 12 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 24 N 10 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 23 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 23 SE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 22 SE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 22 SE 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 27 SE 8 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 32 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 37 NE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 42 NE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 44 NE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 44 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 43 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 42 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 41 NE 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 NE 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 36 NE 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 E 9 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 30 E 9 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 29 E 9 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 28 E 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 26 E 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 25 E 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 24 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 24 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 24 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 23 SE 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 21 SE 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 21 SE 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 22 S 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 26 S 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 32 S 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 39 W 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 43 W 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 45 W 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 46 W 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 45 W 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 43 W 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 41 SW 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 38 SW 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 SW 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 31 SE 1 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 29 SE 1 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 28 SE 1 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 27 E 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 26 E 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 25 E 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 25 E 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 24 E 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 24 E 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 23 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 22 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 21 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 22 E 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 26 E 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 33 E 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 39 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 44 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 45 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 46 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 45 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 42 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 40 NW 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 37 NW 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 NW 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 30 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 29 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 28 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 27 NE 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 26 NE 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 25 NE 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 25 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 24 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 24 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 23 E 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 22 E 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 21 E 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 23 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 E 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 39 NE 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 42 NE 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 43 NE 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 43 NW 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 43 NW 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 41 NW 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 39 NW 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 36 NW 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 33 NW 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 30 NW 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 29 NW 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 28 NW 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 27 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 27 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 26 N 2 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 26 N 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 25 N 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 25 N 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 24 NE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 23 NE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 22 NE 3 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 23 NE 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 27 NE 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 32 NE 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 38 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 40 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 41 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 42 NW 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 42 NW 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 41 NW 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 40 NW 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 37 NW 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 NW 7 312 312 252 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 32 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 30 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 29 N 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 28 N 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 28 N 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 27 N 5 312 312 252 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 26 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 26 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 25 NE 6 312 312 252 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com