Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 32 NW 6 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 32 NW 6 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 NW 6 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 34 NW 6 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 35 NW 6 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 37 NW 6 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 42 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 44 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 46 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 46 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 46 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 45 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 43 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 41 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 W 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 W 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 33 W 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 W 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 W 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 W 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 35 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 38 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 43 NW 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 46 NW 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 48 NW 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 47 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 48 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 46 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 43 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 40 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 38 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 35 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 34 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 34 NW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 34 NW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 33 NW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 32 NW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 32 NW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 32 NW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 32 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 34 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 36 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 39 NW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 43 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 46 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 48 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 49 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 48 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 46 W 12 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 44 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 41 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 38 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 35 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 34 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 34 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 34 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 33 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 32 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 32 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 32 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 31 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 35 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 38 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 42 NW 7 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 45 NW 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 48 NW 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 50 NW 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 51 NW 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 49 NW 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 48 NW 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 45 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 42 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 39 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 38 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 34 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 NW 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 NW 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 33 NW 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 NW 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 37 NW 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 40 NW 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 46 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 48 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 51 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 52 W 10 811 236 176 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 64 50 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 49 W 10 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 45 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 42 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 38 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 37 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 W 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 34 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 33 W 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 33 S 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 S 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 33 S 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 S 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 39 S 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 43 S 3 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 49 SW 9 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 53 SW 9 1112 236 176 White 2
1 PM Sun 67 55 SW 9 1549 807 747 White 4
2 PM Sun 68 56 SW 9 1766 1165 1105 White 5
3 PM Sun 68 55 SW 9 1549 807 747 White 4
4 PM Sun 68 53 SW 9 1112 236 176 White 2
5 PM Sun 67 50 SW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 46 SW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 43 SW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 40 SW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 SW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 SW 8 236 236 176 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 37 S 5 236 236 176 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 S 5 236 236 176 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 S 5 236 236 176 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 S 5 236 236 176 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 S 5 236 236 176 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 S 5 236 236 176 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com