Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 51 31 S 10 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 31 S 10 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 S 10 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 28 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 29 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 32 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 36 S 22 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 38 S 22 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 40 S 22 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 40 S 16 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 38 S 16 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 36 S 16 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 S 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 S 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 S 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 NE 2 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 33 NE 2 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 32 NE 2 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 32 N 2 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 32 N 2 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 32 N 2 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 31 SE 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 SE 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 SE 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 31 SE 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 31 SE 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 SE 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 37 SW 13 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 40 SW 13 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 42 SW 13 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 42 SW 13 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 41 SW 13 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 41 SW 13 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 41 SW 14 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 39 SW 14 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 37 SW 14 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 36 SW 14 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 35 SW 14 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 35 SW 14 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 34 SE 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 34 SE 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 SE 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 SE 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 33 SE 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 33 SE 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 32 S 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 S 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 S 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 S 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 S 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 34 S 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 38 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 39 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 41 S 21 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 40 S 18 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 S 18 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 S 18 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 S 18 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 S 18 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 S 18 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 34 S 15 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 33 S 15 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 S 15 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 32 S 15 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 32 S 15 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 S 15 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 31 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 34 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 36 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 38 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 39 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 39 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 40 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 40 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 39 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 36 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 33 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 32 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 31 NW 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 30 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 29 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 28 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 29 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 28 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 28 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 28 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 28 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 31 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 36 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 39 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 40 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 41 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 41 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 40 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 39 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 37 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 34 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 33 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 32 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 32 N 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 31 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 30 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 30 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 29 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 29 N 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 28 N 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 28 N 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 N 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 N 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 29 N 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 32 N 6 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 37 E 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 40 E 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 42 E 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 43 E 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 43 E 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 42 E 7 315 315 255 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 41 N 3 315 315 255 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 39 N 3 315 315 255 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 N 3 315 315 255 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 35 N 3 315 315 255 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 34 N 3 315 315 255 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 N 3 315 315 255 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 32 E 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 E 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 E 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 30 E 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 31 E 5 315 315 255 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 30 E 5 315 315 255 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com