Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 47 27 NW 26 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 26 NW 26 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 25 NW 26 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 25 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 26 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 27 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 29 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 32 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 33 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 33 NW 20 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 32 NW 20 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 32 NW 20 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 32 NW 22 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 30 NW 22 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 29 NW 22 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 28 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 28 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 27 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 27 W 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 27 W 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 26 W 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 26 W 24 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 26 W 24 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 26 W 24 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 25 NW 26 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 24 NW 26 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 23 NW 26 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 23 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 24 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 26 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 29 NW 30 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 31 NW 30 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 50 31 NW 30 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 32 NW 25 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 32 NW 25 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 31 NW 25 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 31 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 29 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 27 NW 23 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 26 NW 24 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 26 NW 24 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 25 NW 24 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 24 N 20 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 24 N 20 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 24 N 20 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 23 N 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 23 N 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 23 N 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 22 NE 3 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 20 NE 3 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 20 NE 3 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 19 E 5 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 21 E 5 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 25 E 5 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 30 NW 9 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 34 NW 9 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 36 NW 9 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 37 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 53 36 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 36 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 33 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 31 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 29 NW 21 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 28 NW 18 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 28 NW 18 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 26 NW 18 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 26 NE 6 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 26 NE 6 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 25 NE 6 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 25 N 9 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 25 N 9 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 24 N 9 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 23 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 21 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 21 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 20 N 6 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 22 N 6 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 26 N 6 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 30 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 34 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 36 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 36 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 36 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 35 N 8 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 34 NW 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 32 NW 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 30 NW 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 29 NW 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 29 NW 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 28 NW 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 27 N 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 27 N 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 26 N 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 26 N 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 26 N 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 26 N 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 25 NW 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 23 NW 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 22 NW 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 22 NW 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 23 NW 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 26 NW 7 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 30 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 33 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 35 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 35 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 35 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 35 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 34 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 32 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 30 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 29 NW 15 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 29 NW 15 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 28 NW 15 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 27 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 27 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 27 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 26 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 26 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 26 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 25 NW 17 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 23 NW 17 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 23 NW 17 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 22 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 24 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 26 NW 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 29 N 15 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 31 N 15 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 34 N 15 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 34 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 33 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 33 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 32 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 30 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 28 NW 16 285 285 225 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 28 N 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 27 N 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 26 N 14 285 285 225 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 26 N 12 285 285 225 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 25 N 12 285 285 225 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 25 N 12 285 285 225 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 25 N 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 25 N 10 285 285 225 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 24 N 10 285 285 225 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com