Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 33 E 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 33 E 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 E 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 35 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 40 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 44 W 7 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 47 W 7 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 47 W 7 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 48 W 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 48 W 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 48 W 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 45 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 SW 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 35 SW 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 34 SW 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 N 3 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 30 N 3 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 30 N 3 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 30 NE 3 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 33 NE 3 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 37 NE 3 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 42 W 7 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 44 W 7 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 44 W 7 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 45 W 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 46 W 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 46 W 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 43 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 38 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 34 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 34 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 33 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 32 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 31 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 31 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 31 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 34 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 38 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 44 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 45 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 47 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 46 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 48 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 66 47 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 45 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 42 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 35 W 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 34 E 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 34 E 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 34 E 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 33 E 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 33 E 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 E 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 NE 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 NE 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 31 NE 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 NE 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 35 NE 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 41 NE 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 45 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 48 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 48 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 49 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 49 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 67 49 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 NW 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 42 NW 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 NW 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 38 NW 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 NW 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 NW 9 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 34 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 N 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 35 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 41 NE 5 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 45 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 48 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 48 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 49 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 49 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 49 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 46 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 38 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 37 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 W 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 35 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 N 6 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 45 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 48 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 48 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 49 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 66 49 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 47 NW 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 45 NW 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 NW 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 NW 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 NW 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 NW 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 NW 10 430 430 370 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 N 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 N 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 430 430 370 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 430 430 370 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com