Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 51 31 NW 12 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 NW 12 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 NW 12 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 NW 15 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 NW 15 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 36 NW 15 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 39 N 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 42 N 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 42 N 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 42 NW 15 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 41 NW 15 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 40 NW 15 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 38 NW 16 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 36 NW 16 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 33 NW 16 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 31 E 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 30 E 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 30 E 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 29 E 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 28 E 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 28 E 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 27 E 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 26 E 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 26 E 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 26 NE 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 26 NE 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 26 NE 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 26 NE 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 28 NE 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 34 NE 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 38 NE 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 42 NE 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 42 NE 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 42 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 41 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 41 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 39 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 33 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 32 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 31 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 30 NW 9 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 29 SW 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 29 SW 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 28 SW 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 27 SW 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 27 SW 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 26 SW 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 26 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 27 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 27 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 29 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 34 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 39 W 10 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 42 W 10 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 42 W 10 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 42 W 10 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 42 W 10 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 41 W 10 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 40 W 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 W 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 W 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 W 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 W 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 W 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 31 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 31 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 33 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 E 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 41 S 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 43 S 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 43 S 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 43 S 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 43 S 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 43 S 8 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 42 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 33 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 33 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 40 E 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 43 S 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 46 S 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 47 S 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 46 S 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 46 S 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 46 S 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 45 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 43 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 40 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 S 5 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 S 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 S 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 S 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 S 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 S 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 S 7 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 S 6 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 S 6 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 S 6 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 36 S 6 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 37 S 6 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 41 S 6 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 45 S 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 47 S 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 48 S 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 47 S 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 47 S 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 46 S 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 45 SW 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 43 SW 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 41 SW 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 SW 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 SW 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 SW 3 46 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 E 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 37 E 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 E 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 E 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 E 2 46 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 E 2 46 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com