Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 53 33 NW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 33 NW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 NW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 38 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 40 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 41 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 44 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 43 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 44 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 44 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 43 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 41 W 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 W 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 39 W 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 37 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 35 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 38 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 40 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 46 W 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 49 W 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 50 W 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 50 W 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 49 W 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 48 W 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 44 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 42 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 37 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 39 SW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 41 SW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 43 SW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 50 SW 14 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 52 SW 14 517 400 340 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 53 SW 14 1045 400 340 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 68 54 SW 14 1422 400 340 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 68 53 SW 14 1045 400 340 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 67 51 SW 14 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 48 SW 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 46 SW 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 43 SW 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 42 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 40 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 SW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 SW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 SW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 38 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 40 SW 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 42 SW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 44 SW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 45 SW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 52 W 7 517 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 54 W 7 1422 400 340 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 69 55 W 7 1795 516 456 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 69 55 SW 10 1795 516 456 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 68 53 SW 10 1045 400 340 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 67 51 SW 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 48 SW 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 45 SW 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 43 SW 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 SW 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 SW 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 SW 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 SW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 SW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 SW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 S 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 37 S 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 S 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 38 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 40 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 42 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 44 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 46 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 52 SW 6 517 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 54 SW 6 1422 400 340 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 69 54 SW 6 1422 400 340 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 69 54 SW 10 1422 400 340 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 69 53 SW 10 1045 400 340 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 68 51 SW 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 49 SW 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 47 SW 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 44 SW 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 SW 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 42 SW 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 41 SW 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 SW 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 SW 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 SW 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 38 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 40 S 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 41 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 43 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 44 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 51 S 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 53 S 8 1045 400 340 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 67 53 S 8 1045 400 340 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 68 54 SW 12 1422 400 340 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 67 52 SW 12 517 400 340 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 66 50 SW 12 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 47 W 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 44 W 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 41 W 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 40 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 W 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 37 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 S 5 400 400 340 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com