Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 52 32 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 29 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 38 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 43 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 45 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 45 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 46 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 46 W 13 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 47 W 13 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 45 W 13 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 41 W 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 39 W 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 36 W 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 33 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 32 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 NW 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 31 NW 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 30 NW 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 29 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 29 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 28 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 28 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 28 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 31 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 37 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 43 NW 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 46 NW 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 48 NW 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 49 NW 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 49 W 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 48 W 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 46 W 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 44 NW 17 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 NW 17 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 NW 17 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 38 NW 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 NW 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 35 NW 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 35 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 34 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 31 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 NW 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NW 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 31 NW 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 NW 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 NW 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 42 NW 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 48 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 50 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 52 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 51 NW 14 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 50 NW 14 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 48 NW 14 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 46 NW 17 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 43 NW 17 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 41 NW 17 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 N 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 N 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 35 NE 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 34 NE 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 33 NE 2 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 32 NE 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 NE 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 31 NE 3 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 31 E 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 31 E 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 E 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 34 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 40 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 48 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 54 N 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 73 57 N 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 58 N 8 410 262 202 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 74 58 N 12 410 262 202 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 75 58 N 12 410 262 202 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 74 56 N 12 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 73 53 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 70 50 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 47 NW 9 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 44 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 42 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 41 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 40 N 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 39 N 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 38 N 5 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 NE 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 NE 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 NE 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 38 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 43 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 51 NE 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 57 NE 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 77 61 NE 8 1758 410 350 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 78 62 NE 8 1984 1233 1173 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 77 61 NW 12 1758 410 350 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 77 60 NW 12 1531 262 202 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 76 58 NW 12 410 262 202 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 74 54 NW 10 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 51 NW 10 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 48 NW 10 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 44 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 42 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 41 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 N 6 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 41 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 49 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 54 N 8 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 58 N 8 410 262 202 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 58 N 8 410 262 202 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 74 58 N 14 410 262 202 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 74 57 N 14 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 73 55 N 14 262 262 202 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 71 51 NW 10 262 262 202 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 NW 10 262 262 202 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 44 NW 10 262 262 202 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 41 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 NW 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 33 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 N 7 262 262 202 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com