Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 60 40 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 40 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 40 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 42 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 44 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 45 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 50 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 51 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 54 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 69 54 SW 16 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 53 SW 16 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 51 SW 16 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 50 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 46 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 45 SW 12 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 42 W 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 42 W 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 42 W 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 42 SW 0 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 41 SW 0 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 41 SW 0 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 41 NE 0 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 41 NE 0 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 40 NE 0 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 40 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 40 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 40 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 42 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 45 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 46 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 51 W 6 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 55 W 6 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 57 W 6 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 71 57 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 71 56 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 71 55 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 52 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 49 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 43 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 42 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 42 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 41 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 40 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 42 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 43 NW 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 46 NW 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 50 NW 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 53 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 55 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 72 57 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 72 57 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 56 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 72 55 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 71 52 W 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 49 W 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 46 W 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 44 NW 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 43 NW 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 43 NW 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 42 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 42 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 42 N 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 41 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 41 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 41 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 43 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 44 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 47 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 50 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 54 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 56 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 72 58 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 58 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 72 57 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 54 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 52 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 68 49 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 46 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 44 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 43 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 43 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 43 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 43 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 42 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 42 N 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 42 N 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 42 N 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 42 N 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 44 S 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 46 S 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 49 S 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 52 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 54 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 71 56 SW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 56 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 55 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 53 W 9 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 51 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 48 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 45 W 8 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 W 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 43 W 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 43 W 3 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 43 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 43 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 43 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 42 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 42 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 42 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 42 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 43 W 1 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 44 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 47 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 50 W 2 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 53 W 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 57 W 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 57 W 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 71 58 W 10 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 71 57 W 10 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 70 54 W 10 335 335 275 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 51 W 10 335 335 275 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 48 W 10 335 335 275 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 45 W 10 335 335 275 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 44 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 43 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 43 W 7 335 335 275 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 43 NW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 42 NW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 NW 5 335 335 275 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 42 NW 6 335 335 275 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 42 NW 6 335 335 275 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 42 NW 6 335 335 275 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com