Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 53 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 W 2 1649 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 W 2 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 63 67 W 7 4628 3334 1134 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 66 71 W 7 5874 4791 2591 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 68 74 W 7 6752 5850 3650 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 70 76 W 14 7282 6261 4061 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 69 74 W 14 6752 5850 3650 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 69 72 W 14 6049 4971 2771 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 14 4809 3862 1662 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 14 3936 2569 369 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 14 2581 2200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 7 1649 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 7 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 7 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 5 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 SW 7 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 SW 7 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 61 SW 7 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 62 64 W 10 3354 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 64 66 W 10 4446 2958 758 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 66 69 W 10 4990 4431 2231 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 67 70 W 14 5699 4611 2411 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 68 70 W 14 5699 4611 2411 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 67 68 W 14 4809 3862 1662 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 66 67 W 12 4628 3334 1134 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 12 3354 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 12 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 7 1649 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 7 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 W 7 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 W 7 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 W 5 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 W 5 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 N 5 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 63 N 7 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 63 67 N 7 4628 3334 1134 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 66 70 N 7 5699 4611 2411 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 68 73 W 12 6325 5676 3476 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 69 73 W 12 6325 5676 3476 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 69 72 W 12 6049 4971 2771 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 68 69 W 12 4990 4431 2231 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 4446 2958 758 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 12 3354 2200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 61 61 NW 6 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 NW 6 1649 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 5 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 5 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 N 7 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 N 7 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 N 7 1440 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 NE 3 1508 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 NE 3 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 63 66 NE 3 4446 2958 758 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 67 71 NW 7 5874 4791 2591 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 70 75 NW 7 7169 6024 3824 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 72 78 NW 7 7585 7098 4898 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 74 80 NW 9 7989 7374 5174 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 76 81 NW 9 8191 7546 5346 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 76 79 NW 9 7787 7262 5062 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 75 76 NW 9 7282 6261 4061 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 72 72 NW 9 6049 4971 2771 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 9 4809 3862 1662 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 3936 2569 369 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 6 2581 2200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 3 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 3 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 3 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 2 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 2 1649 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 SW 2 1649 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 NE 2 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NE 2 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NE 2 1578 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 E 2 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 E 2 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 66 69 E 2 4990 4431 2231 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 70 74 NW 6 6752 5850 3650 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 73 78 NW 6 7585 7098 4898 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 76 82 NW 6 8424 7747 5547 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 78 84 NW 7 9019 8148 5948 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 79 84 NW 7 9019 8148 5948 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 79 82 NW 7 8424 7747 5547 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 78 79 NW 8 7787 7262 5062 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 76 76 NW 8 7282 6261 4061 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 72 72 NW 8 6049 4971 2771 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 5 4990 4431 2231 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 66 66 NW 5 4446 2958 758 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 3936 2569 369 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 64 64 S 2 3354 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 S 2 3354 2200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 63 63 S 2 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 2581 2200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 61 61 SE 2 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 61 61 W 2 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 60 60 W 2 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 2 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 S 3 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 64 65 S 3 3936 2569 369 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 67 69 S 3 4990 4431 2231 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 70 74 N 7 6752 5850 3650 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 73 78 N 7 7585 7098 4898 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 74 79 N 7 7787 7262 5062 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 75 80 W 10 7989 7374 5174 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 76 80 W 10 7989 7374 5174 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 76 79 W 10 7787 7262 5062 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 74 75 W 10 7169 6024 3824 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 72 72 W 10 6049 4971 2771 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 10 4990 4431 2231 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 7 4446 2958 758 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 7 3354 2200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 7 2973 2200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 5 2581 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 5 2581 2200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 5 2581 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 61 61 W 3 2128 2200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 1719 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 1719 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com