Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 65 65 SW 7 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
6 AM Sun 65 65 SW 7 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 66 66 SW 7 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 69 69 SW 8 2664 2595 395 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 71 72 SW 8 2719 2663 463 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 74 76 SW 8 2793 2737 537 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 76 82 W 12 3098 2851 651 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 78 85 W 12 3820 3088 888 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 79 87 W 12 4574 3561 1361 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 80 88 W 14 4943 3804 1604 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 80 86 W 14 4211 3317 1117 Blue 31
4 PM Sun 79 84 W 14 3575 2894 694 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 78 81 W 13 2895 2830 630 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 77 78 W 13 2831 2774 574 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 13 2775 2718 518 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 2700 2642 442 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 6 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 6 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 6 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 63 63 W 6 2524 2446 246 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 63 63 W 6 2524 2446 246 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 68 68 W 7 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 71 72 W 7 2719 2663 463 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 74 77 W 7 2812 2755 555 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 76 82 W 10 3098 2851 651 Blue 27
12 Noon Mon 79 87 W 10 4574 3561 1361 Blue 32
1 PM Mon 80 88 W 10 4943 3804 1604 Blue 33
2 PM Mon 81 89 W 13 5451 4183 1983 Blue 34
3 PM Mon 81 88 W 13 4943 3804 1604 Blue 33
4 PM Mon 80 85 W 13 3820 3088 888 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 79 82 W 12 3098 2851 651 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 77 78 W 12 2831 2774 574 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 12 2775 2718 518 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 12 2719 2663 463 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 68 68 W 12 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 67 67 W 12 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 W 8 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 8 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 66 66 W 8 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 65 65 W 8 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 2524 2446 246 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 2524 2446 246 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 66 66 W 8 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 69 70 W 8 2682 2619 419 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 73 75 W 8 2775 2718 518 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 77 81 W 8 2895 2830 630 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 79 85 W 13 3820 3088 888 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 83 91 W 13 6141 4906 2706 Blue 36
1 PM Tue 84 92 W 13 6411 5385 3185 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 86 94 W 13 7544 6104 3904 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 86 93 W 13 7230 5835 3635 Blue 38
4 PM Tue 85 90 W 13 5870 4542 2342 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 84 87 W 13 4574 3561 1361 Blue 32
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 13 3329 2872 672 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 13 2852 2793 593 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 13 2756 2700 500 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 13 2682 2619 419 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 13 2682 2619 419 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 8 2664 2595 395 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 8 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 8 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 68 68 W 8 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 8 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 8 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 7 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 7 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 67 67 W 7 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 70 71 W 7 2700 2642 442 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 74 76 W 7 2793 2737 537 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 78 82 W 7 3098 2851 651 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 81 87 W 9 4574 3561 1361 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 84 91 W 9 6141 4906 2706 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 86 94 W 9 7544 6104 3904 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 87 95 W 9 8152 6371 4171 Blue 40
3 PM Wed 87 94 W 9 7544 6104 3904 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 86 91 W 9 6141 4906 2706 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 84 87 W 10 4574 3561 1361 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 82 83 W 10 3329 2872 672 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 10 2873 2811 611 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 2775 2718 518 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 2682 2619 419 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 2664 2595 395 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 69 69 SW 6 2664 2595 395 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 SW 6 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 6 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 6 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 64 64 SW 8 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 64 64 SW 8 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 66 66 SW 8 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 70 71 SW 8 2700 2642 442 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 73 75 SW 8 2775 2718 518 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 77 81 SW 8 2895 2830 630 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 79 85 W 9 3820 3088 888 Blue 30
12 Noon Thu 82 89 W 9 5451 4183 1983 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 84 92 W 9 6411 5385 3185 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 85 93 W 9 7230 5835 3635 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 85 92 W 9 6411 5385 3185 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 84 89 W 9 5451 4183 1983 Blue 34
5 PM Thu 82 85 W 9 3820 3088 888 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 9 2895 2830 630 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 9 2831 2774 574 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 9 2737 2682 482 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 2664 2595 395 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 2643 2571 371 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 7 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 62 62 SW 8 2500 2398 198 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 8 2500 2398 198 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 64 64 SW 8 2548 2476 276 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 67 67 SW 8 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 70 72 SW 8 2719 2663 463 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 74 77 SW 8 2812 2755 555 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 76 82 W 9 3098 2851 651 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 79 87 W 9 4574 3561 1361 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 80 89 W 9 5451 4183 1983 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 81 89 W 9 5451 4183 1983 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 81 88 W 9 4943 3804 1604 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 80 85 W 9 3820 3088 888 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 79 82 W 10 3098 2851 651 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 77 79 W 10 2852 2793 593 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 2775 2718 518 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 10 2700 2642 442 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 10 2619 2547 347 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 10 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 7 2595 2523 323 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 7 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 7 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 65 65 W 7 2571 2499 299 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 7 2524 2446 246 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 63 63 W 7 2524 2446 246 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com