Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 9 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 9 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 8 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 N 8 1139 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 59 N 8 2713 2200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 61 65 N 14 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 64 69 N 14 7860 6866 4666 White 12
1 PM Sat 67 73 N 14 8694 8694 6494 White 16
2 PM Sat 69 74 NW 18 8901 8901 6701 White 17
3 PM Sat 70 74 NW 18 8901 8901 6701 White 17
4 PM Sat 69 72 NW 18 8486 8486 6286 White 15
5 PM Sat 68 69 NW 17 7860 6866 4666 White 12
6 PM Sat 65 65 NW 17 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 17 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 60 60 NW 9 3538 2200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 9 2228 2200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 57 57 NW 9 1868 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 N 6 1868 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 N 6 1868 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 1868 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 2 1506 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 1139 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 2 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 1106 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 1139 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 N 7 2713 2200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 61 63 N 7 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 64 68 N 10 7650 6305 4105 White 11
12 Noon Sun 68 73 N 10 8694 8694 6494 White 16
1 PM Sun 70 75 N 10 9107 9107 6907 White 18
2 PM Sun 72 77 N 16 9518 9518 7318 White 20
3 PM Sun 74 78 N 16 9722 9722 7522 White 20
4 PM Sun 74 77 N 16 9518 9518 7318 White 20
5 PM Sun 73 74 NW 16 8901 8901 6701 White 17
6 PM Sun 70 70 NW 16 8069 7351 5151 White 13
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 16 7441 5876 3676 White 10
8 PM Sun 64 64 NW 16 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 16 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 61 61 NW 16 3969 2222 22 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 8 3538 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 8 3538 2200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 8 2713 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 59 59 N 8 2713 2200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 8 2228 2200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 8 1868 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NE 13 1506 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 NE 13 1506 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 NE 13 1506 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NE 13 1868 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 NE 13 3969 2222 22 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 63 65 NE 13 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 68 72 NW 13 8486 8486 6286 White 15
12 Noon Mon 72 77 NW 13 9518 9518 7318 White 20
1 PM Mon 75 80 NW 13 10151 10151 7951 White 22
2 PM Mon 77 82 NW 13 10555 10555 8355 White 24
3 PM Mon 78 82 NW 13 10555 10555 8355 White 24
4 PM Mon 78 81 NW 13 10353 10353 8153 White 23
5 PM Mon 77 78 NW 12 9722 9722 7522 White 20
6 PM Mon 75 75 NW 12 9107 9107 6907 White 18
7 PM Mon 73 73 NW 12 8694 8694 6494 White 16
8 PM Mon 70 70 NW 12 8069 7351 5151 White 13
9 PM Mon 69 69 NW 12 7860 6866 4666 White 12
10 PM Mon 67 67 NW 12 7441 5876 3676 White 10
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 5 6936 4447 2247 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 5 6936 4447 2247 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 66 66 N 5 6936 4447 2247 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 65 65 N 5 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 63 63 N 5 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 3538 2200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 2713 2200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 3538 2200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 62 63 N 6 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 67 69 N 6 7860 6866 4666 White 12
11 AM Tue 71 75 N 3 9107 9107 6907 White 18
12 Noon Tue 75 80 N 3 10151 10151 7951 White 22
1 PM Tue 79 84 N 3 10956 10956 8756 White 26
2 PM Tue 81 86 N 3 11355 11355 9155 White 28
3 PM Tue 83 87 N 3 11554 11554 9354 White 29
4 PM Tue 83 86 N 3 11355 11355 9155 White 28
5 PM Tue 82 83 N 7 10755 10755 8555 White 25
6 PM Tue 78 78 N 7 9722 9722 7522 White 20
7 PM Tue 74 74 N 7 8901 8901 6701 White 17
8 PM Tue 71 71 N 7 8277 8044 5844 White 14
9 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 7860 6866 4666 White 12
10 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 7860 6866 4666 White 12
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 2 7650 6305 4105 White 11
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 2 6936 4447 2247 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 63 63 W 2 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 63 63 W 2 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 64 64 E 2 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 63 63 E 2 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 2 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 62 62 E 2 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 66 67 E 2 7441 5876 3676 White 10
10 AM Wed 72 74 E 2 8901 8901 6701 White 17
11 AM Wed 77 80 E 3 10151 10151 7951 White 22
12 Noon Wed 81 85 E 3 11155 11155 8955 White 27
1 PM Wed 83 87 E 3 11554 11554 9354 White 29
2 PM Wed 85 89 E 3 11948 11948 9748 White 31
3 PM Wed 86 89 E 3 11948 11948 9748 White 31
4 PM Wed 86 88 E 3 11751 11751 9551 White 30
5 PM Wed 84 85 NW 6 11155 11155 8955 White 27
6 PM Wed 81 81 NW 6 10353 10353 8153 White 23
7 PM Wed 76 76 NW 6 9312 9312 7112 White 19
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 6 8694 8694 6494 White 16
9 PM Wed 71 71 NW 6 8277 8044 5844 White 14
10 PM Wed 70 70 NW 6 8069 7351 5151 White 13
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 2 7860 6866 4666 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 W 2 7441 5876 3676 White 10
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 2 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 63 63 W 2 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 2 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 2 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 64 64 NE 1 5933 3952 1752 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 63 63 NE 1 4470 3486 1286 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 1 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 1 4215 2707 507 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 67 67 NE 1 7441 5876 3676 White 10
10 AM Thu 73 75 NE 1 9107 9107 6907 White 18
11 AM Thu 79 82 NE 1 10555 10555 8355 White 24
12 Noon Thu 82 86 NE 1 11355 11355 9155 White 28
1 PM Thu 83 87 NE 1 11554 11554 9354 White 29
2 PM Thu 84 88 NE 1 11751 11751 9551 White 30
3 PM Thu 85 88 NE 1 11751 11751 9551 White 30
4 PM Thu 86 88 NE 1 11751 11751 9551 White 30
5 PM Thu 84 85 W 8 11155 11155 8955 White 27
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 8 10353 10353 8153 White 23
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 9312 9312 7112 White 19
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 8 8694 8694 6494 White 16
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 8 8277 8044 5844 White 14
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 8 8277 8044 5844 White 14
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 3 8277 8044 5844 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 3 7860 6866 4666 White 12
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 3 6936 4447 2247 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 6437 4194 1994 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 3 6936 4447 2247 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com