Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 E 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 E 2 1484 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 E 2 1970 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 62 64 N 3 2402 2200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 64 66 N 3 2867 2200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 65 68 N 3 3329 2607 407 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 66 68 NW 5 3329 2607 407 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 66 68 NW 5 3329 2607 407 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 65 66 NW 5 2867 2200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 63 63 N 3 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 59 59 N 3 1699 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 1484 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 S 5 1484 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 S 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 S 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 S 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 S 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 S 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 S 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 S 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 SE 3 1484 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 61 SW 3 1970 2200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 61 63 SW 3 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 62 64 SW 3 2402 2200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 63 65 W 6 2613 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 63 64 W 6 2402 2200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 62 63 W 6 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 1870 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 S 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 S 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 S 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 S 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 S 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 S 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 N 7 1870 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 62 N 7 2070 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 62 64 N 7 2402 2200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 63 64 N 7 2402 2200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 64 65 N 7 2613 2200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 63 63 N 7 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 61 61 NE 7 1970 2200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 1484 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 1484 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 E 6 1870 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 62 E 6 2070 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 62 63 E 6 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 62 63 E 6 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 62 63 E 6 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 62 62 E 6 2070 2200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 60 60 NE 3 1870 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 57 NE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 NE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 NE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NE 3 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NE 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 5 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 E 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 E 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 W 7 1699 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 60 W 7 1870 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 W 7 2070 2200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 61 62 W 7 2070 2200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 62 63 W 7 2189 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 61 61 W 7 1970 2200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 59 59 SW 6 1699 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 SW 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 SW 6 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SE 7 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SE 10 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 SE 10 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 S 16 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 S 16 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 57 S 16 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 57 S 16 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 56 S 16 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 S 16 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 S 14 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 S 14 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 S 14 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 S 14 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 S 14 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 14 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 S 12 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 S 12 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 12 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 S 12 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 S 12 1398 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 12 1398 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com