Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 6 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 NNW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 63 NNW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 66 NNW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 71 WNW 9 13 1645 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 75 WNW 9 13 2021 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 76 WNW 9 13 2304 2200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 70 78 WNW 14 21 2921 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 70 76 WNW 14 21 2304 2200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 68 72 WNW 14 21 1731 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 69 W 12 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 67 W 12 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 NNW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NNW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 NNW 4 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NNW 4 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 NNW 4 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 NNE 13 19 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 69 NNE 13 19 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 73 NNE 13 19 1818 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 78 NNW 10 14 2921 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 74 82 NNW 10 14 5350 3238 1038 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 76 84 NNW 10 14 5907 3889 1689 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 78 86 NW 13 20 7403 5595 3395 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 78 84 NW 13 20 5907 3889 1689 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 75 79 NW 13 20 3254 2299 99 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 73 75 WNW 11 17 2021 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 72 WNW 11 17 1731 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 N 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 N 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 N 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 NNE 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NNE 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 NNE 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 NE 10 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 10 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 NNE 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 69 NNE 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 73 NNE 11 17 1818 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 78 NW 8 11 2921 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 75 83 NW 8 11 5629 3565 1365 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 76 84 NW 8 11 5907 3889 1689 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 78 86 WNW 12 19 7403 5595 3395 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 78 84 WNW 12 19 5907 3889 1689 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 75 79 WNW 12 19 3254 2299 99 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 74 76 WNW 14 23 2304 2200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 72 73 WNW 14 23 1818 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 14 23 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 71 SSW 5 8 1645 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 76 W 5 8 2304 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 72 80 W 5 8 3584 2576 376 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 73 81 W 5 8 3911 2908 708 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 74 81 W 8 12 3911 2908 708 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 74 80 W 8 12 3584 2576 376 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 71 75 W 8 12 2021 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 70 72 W 9 13 1731 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 69 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 58 SW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 SW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 66 SW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 73 W 5 9 1818 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 76 W 5 9 2304 2200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 70 77 W 5 9 2585 2200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 72 79 W 9 12 3254 2299 99 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 72 78 W 9 12 2921 2200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 69 73 W 9 12 1818 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 69 W 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 66 67 W 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 56 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 60 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 64 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 69 WSW 8 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 72 WSW 8 12 1731 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 75 WSW 8 12 2021 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 75 W 11 16 2021 2200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 68 74 W 11 16 1905 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 70 W 11 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 66 W 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 64 W 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 11 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 11 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 11 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com