Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 W 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 67 W 7 1694 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 71 W 7 1827 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 76 W 10 2287 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 72 80 W 10 2556 2353 153 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 74 83 W 10 3144 2555 355 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 83 W 14 3144 2555 355 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 75 82 W 14 2765 2487 287 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 74 79 W 14 2489 2286 86 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 72 75 W 14 2159 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 70 72 W 14 1861 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 68 W 14 1727 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 W 10 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 W 10 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 10 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 65 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 71 SW 7 1827 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 68 74 W 9 2005 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 70 78 W 9 2422 2200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 72 80 W 9 2556 2353 153 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 73 81 W 13 2624 2420 220 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 73 80 W 13 2556 2353 153 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 72 77 W 13 2354 2200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 70 73 W 10 1894 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 68 69 W 10 1760 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 1660 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 S 2 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 S 2 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 2 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 68 SW 7 1727 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 74 SW 8 2005 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 70 77 SW 8 2354 2200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 73 81 SW 8 2624 2420 220 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 74 82 W 10 2765 2487 287 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 74 81 W 10 2624 2420 220 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 73 78 W 10 2422 2200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 72 75 W 9 2159 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 70 71 W 9 1827 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 1694 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 S 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 S 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 S 8 1660 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 69 S 8 1760 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 74 SW 10 2005 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 71 78 SW 10 2422 2200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 73 81 SW 10 2624 2420 220 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 74 82 SW 10 2765 2487 287 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 74 81 SW 10 2624 2420 220 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 73 78 SW 10 2422 2200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 71 74 SW 12 2005 2200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 70 71 SW 12 1827 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 12 1694 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 SW 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 68 SW 6 1727 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 73 W 8 1894 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 76 W 8 2287 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 70 78 W 8 2422 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 71 79 W 10 2489 2286 86 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 72 79 W 10 2489 2286 86 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 71 76 W 10 2287 2200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 69 72 W 12 1861 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 69 W 12 1760 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 64 S 7 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 S 7 1694 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 72 W 9 1861 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 75 W 9 2159 2200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 70 78 W 9 2422 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 71 79 W 12 2489 2286 86 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 72 79 W 12 2489 2286 86 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 71 76 W 12 2287 2200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 69 72 W 12 1861 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 68 W 12 1727 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 12 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 W 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 S 5 1640 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 1640 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com