Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 12 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SE 12 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 SE 12 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 S 15 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 S 15 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 49 49 S 15 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 50 50 S 15 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 51 51 S 15 3028 2573 373 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 52 52 S 15 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 53 53 S 17 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 53 53 S 17 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 53 53 S 17 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 52 52 S 17 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 51 51 S 17 3028 2573 373 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 48 48 S 17 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 48 48 S 16 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 47 47 S 17 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 S 17 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 S 17 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 S 15 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 S 15 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 S 15 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 W 14 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 W 14 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 14 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 W 7 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 W 7 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 48 49 W 7 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 49 51 W 9 3028 2573 373 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 51 54 W 9 4163 3023 823 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 52 55 W 9 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 52 55 W 15 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 53 55 W 15 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 53 55 W 15 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 52 53 W 15 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 15 3028 2573 373 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 15 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 2 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 W 2 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 2 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 SE 5 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 SE 5 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SE 7 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SE 7 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 SE 7 1148 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 S 5 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 S 5 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 50 52 S 5 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 51 54 S 12 4163 3023 823 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 54 57 S 12 4763 4134 1934 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 55 59 S 12 5264 4598 2398 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 56 60 S 18 5749 4747 2547 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 57 60 S 18 5749 4747 2547 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 57 59 S 18 5264 4598 2398 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 56 56 S 17 4612 3786 1586 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 55 55 S 17 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 51 51 S 17 3028 2573 373 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 50 50 S 21 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 50 50 S 21 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 50 50 S 21 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 49 49 S 29 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 S 29 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 48 48 S 29 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 26 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 26 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 47 47 S 26 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 47 47 SW 15 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 46 46 SW 15 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SW 15 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SW 15 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 49 49 SW 15 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 15 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 52 53 S 14 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 53 54 S 14 4163 3023 823 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 54 55 S 14 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 55 56 S 14 4612 3786 1586 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 55 56 S 14 4612 3786 1586 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 55 55 S 14 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 54 54 SW 14 4163 3023 823 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 53 53 SW 14 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 14 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 49 49 SW 14 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 49 49 SW 14 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 14 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 48 48 S 6 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 6 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 7 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 7 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 7 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 48 48 S 7 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 50 50 S 7 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 51 52 S 13 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 52 53 S 13 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 53 54 S 13 4163 3023 823 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 54 55 S 13 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 54 55 S 13 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 54 55 S 13 4462 3410 1210 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 53 53 S 15 3804 2892 692 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 52 52 S 15 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 49 49 S 15 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 48 48 S 15 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 48 48 S 15 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 48 48 S 15 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 48 48 S 14 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 S 14 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 14 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 16 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 S 16 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 16 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 16 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 S 16 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 48 48 S 16 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 48 49 SW 21 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 49 50 SW 21 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 50 52 SW 21 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 50 52 SW 21 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 51 52 SW 21 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 51 52 SW 21 3434 2761 561 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 50 50 SW 21 2897 2209 9 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 49 49 SW 21 2765 2200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 47 47 SW 21 2215 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 21 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 SW 21 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 SW 21 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 14 1841 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 14 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 1426 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 W 14 1148 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com