Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 SW 9 2354 2200 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 9 1822 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 9 2354 2200 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 SW 9 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 56 56 SW 9 3014 2582 382 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 59 60 SW 9 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 61 65 W 10 3300 3228 1028 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 63 68 W 10 3370 3298 1098 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 64 69 W 10 3393 3322 1122 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 65 71 W 14 3447 3368 1168 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 66 70 W 14 3417 3345 1145 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 64 67 W 14 3346 3275 1075 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 63 64 W 12 3276 3205 1005 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 12 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 7 3014 2582 382 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 7 2709 2514 314 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 55 55 SW 7 2709 2514 314 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 8 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 55 55 W 8 2709 2514 314 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 7 2584 2200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 2647 2287 87 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 62 63 W 5 3253 3181 981 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 66 68 W 5 3370 3298 1098 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 69 73 NW 7 3666 3415 1215 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 72 77 NW 7 4659 3878 1678 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 74 80 NW 7 6323 4630 2430 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 75 81 W 12 6654 5438 3238 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 76 81 W 12 6654 5438 3238 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 74 77 W 12 4659 3878 1678 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 72 73 W 13 3666 3415 1215 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 13 3393 3322 1122 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 3276 3205 1005 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 61 61 W 13 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 13 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 8 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 58 58 N 8 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 8 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 8 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 8 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 12 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 12 3014 2582 382 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 12 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 61 61 N 12 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 66 67 N 12 3346 3275 1075 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 70 72 N 12 3506 3392 1192 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 73 77 N 10 4659 3878 1678 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 77 82 N 10 6990 5948 3748 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 79 85 N 10 7651 6933 4733 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 80 86 N 10 7841 7235 5035 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 81 85 N 10 7651 6933 4733 Blue 34
4 PM Thu 79 82 N 10 6990 5948 3748 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 77 78 W 10 5520 4104 1904 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 10 3666 3415 1215 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 10 3370 3298 1098 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 3276 3205 1005 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 10 3229 3158 958 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 61 61 NE 3 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NE 3 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 61 61 NE 3 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 61 61 NE 3 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 60 60 NE 5 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 59 59 NE 5 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 60 60 NE 5 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 62 62 NE 5 3229 3158 958 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 66 67 NE 5 3346 3275 1075 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 70 72 NE 5 3506 3392 1192 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 72 76 W 7 4362 3651 1451 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 75 80 W 7 6323 4630 2430 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 76 82 W 7 6990 5948 3748 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 77 82 W 7 6990 5948 3748 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 78 82 W 7 6990 5948 3748 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 76 79 W 7 5993 4342 2142 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 9 4121 3503 1303 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 3417 3345 1145 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 9 3323 3252 1052 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 3229 3158 958 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 60 60 W 9 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 60 60 W 9 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 7 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 7 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 7 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 7 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 59 59 W 7 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 7 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 3183 3111 911 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 64 65 SW 6 3300 3228 1028 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 67 69 SW 6 3393 3322 1122 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 69 73 W 8 3666 3415 1215 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 72 77 W 8 4659 3878 1678 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 73 79 W 8 5993 4342 2142 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 74 79 W 8 5993 4342 2142 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 74 78 W 8 5520 4104 1904 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 73 76 W 8 4362 3651 1451 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 71 72 W 9 3506 3392 1192 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 3370 3298 1098 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 3276 3205 1005 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 3206 3135 935 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 9 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 9 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 W 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 58 58 W 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 58 58 W 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 58 58 W 6 3136 2707 507 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 62 62 SW 6 3229 3158 958 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 65 66 SW 6 3323 3252 1052 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 67 71 W 9 3447 3368 1168 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 70 75 W 9 4121 3503 1303 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 71 77 W 9 4659 3878 1678 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 72 77 W 9 4659 3878 1678 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 72 76 W 9 4362 3651 1451 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 71 74 W 9 3894 3444 1244 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 69 70 W 9 3417 3345 1145 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 66 66 W 9 3323 3252 1052 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 3229 3158 958 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 9 3159 3007 807 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 7 3014 2582 382 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 7 3014 2582 382 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 57 57 W 7 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 7 3112 2645 445 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 7 3014 2582 382 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 7 3014 2582 382 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com