Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 5 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 W 5 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 W 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 W 8 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 NW 8 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 48 NW 7 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 N 9 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 51 53 N 12 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 52 53 N 13 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 52 52 N 13 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 52 52 N 14 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 50 50 N 8 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 10 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 48 48 N 14 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 N 12 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 N 14 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 49 49 NE 15 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 15 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 15 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 15 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 14 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 15 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 16 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 17 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 17 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 18 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 20 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NE 21 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 NE 20 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 NE 20 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 49 51 NE 20 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 52 54 NE 23 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 53 54 NE 23 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 53 53 NE 23 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 53 53 NE 21 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 21 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 52 52 NE 21 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 21 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 50 50 NE 21 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 50 50 NE 21 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 49 49 NE 20 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 20 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NE 20 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NE 12 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 12 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 12 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NE 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 SW 2 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 51 SW 2 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 51 53 SW 2 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 53 55 W 2 3718 3282 1082 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 54 55 W 2 3718 3282 1082 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 54 54 W 2 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 54 54 N 1 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 53 53 N 1 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 52 52 N 1 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 50 50 E 2 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 50 50 SE 2 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 50 50 SE 2 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SE 2 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 48 48 SE 2 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 E 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 2 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NE 6 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 51 53 NE 6 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NE 6 3718 3282 1082 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 55 57 N 6 3967 3586 1386 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 56 57 N 6 3967 3586 1386 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 56 56 N 6 3843 3462 1262 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 3843 3462 1262 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 52 52 N 3 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 E 6 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 NE 6 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 51 52 NE 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 53 54 NE 6 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 55 56 N 6 3843 3462 1262 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 56 57 N 6 3967 3586 1386 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 56 56 N 6 3843 3462 1262 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 3718 3282 1082 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 54 54 NW 5 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 5 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 53 53 N 5 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 52 52 N 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 6 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 2328 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 49 49 S 6 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 1892 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 7 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 7 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 8 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 E 8 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 E 8 1132 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 47 SE 7 1416 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 SE 7 2176 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 50 51 SE 7 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 52 53 NW 7 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 53 54 NW 7 3594 2661 461 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 53 53 NW 6 3469 2325 125 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 6 3314 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 6 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 51 51 NE 6 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 6 2686 2200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 6 2328 2200 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com