Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 50 50 SW 13 2760 2200 0 White 2
6 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 SW 13 2539 2200 0 White 1
8 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 SW 13 3198 2647 447 White 4
10 AM Sat 54 56 SW 13 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 56 60 SW 12 3381 3327 1127 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 59 66 SW 12 3487 3433 1233 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 60 68 SW 12 3522 3468 1268 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 60 67 W 12 3504 3450 1250 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 61 66 W 12 3487 3433 1233 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 62 66 W 12 3487 3433 1233 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 61 64 W 14 3451 3397 1197 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 59 60 W 14 3381 3327 1127 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 14 3328 3274 1074 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 10 3293 3231 1031 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 3198 2647 447 White 4
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 3198 2647 447 White 4
11 PM Sat 51 51 SW 20 2980 2206 6 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 SW 20 2760 2200 0 White 2
1 AM Sun 50 50 SW 20 2760 2200 0 White 2
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 21 2539 2200 0 White 1
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 21 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 W 21 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 W 21 1722 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 21 1219 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 W 21 1219 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 W 22 1219 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 W 22 1722 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 49 W 22 2539 2200 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 50 50 W 20 2760 2200 0 White 2
12 Noon Sun 51 51 W 20 2980 2206 6 White 3
1 PM Sun 52 52 W 20 3198 2647 447 White 4
2 PM Sun 52 54 W 15 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 52 54 W 15 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 53 54 W 15 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 52 53 W 13 3257 3173 973 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 13 3198 2647 447 White 4
7 PM Sun 51 51 W 13 2980 2206 6 White 3
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 8 2980 2206 6 White 3
9 PM Sun 50 50 W 8 2760 2200 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 49 49 W 8 2539 2200 0 White 1
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 7 2539 2200 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 W 7 2539 2200 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 49 49 W 7 2539 2200 0 White 1
2 AM Mon 49 49 SW 5 2539 2200 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 W 8 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 W 8 1722 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 W 8 2539 2200 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 48 48 SW 8 2214 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 SW 8 2980 2206 6 White 3
10 AM Mon 52 54 SW 8 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 54 57 W 9 3328 3274 1074 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 56 60 W 9 3381 3327 1127 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 57 61 W 9 3398 3345 1145 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 58 62 W 13 3416 3362 1162 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 58 61 W 13 3398 3345 1145 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 59 61 W 13 3398 3345 1145 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 58 59 W 13 3363 3309 1109 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 13 3328 3274 1074 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 13 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 3293 3231 1031 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 3257 3173 973 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 3198 2647 447 White 4
11 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 3198 2647 447 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 W 7 2980 2206 6 White 3
1 AM Tue 52 52 W 7 3198 2647 447 White 4
2 AM Tue 51 51 W 7 2980 2206 6 White 3
3 AM Tue 50 50 W 7 2760 2200 0 White 2
4 AM Tue 50 50 W 7 2760 2200 0 White 2
5 AM Tue 49 49 W 6 2539 2200 0 White 1
6 AM Tue 49 49 W 6 2539 2200 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 50 50 W 6 2760 2200 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 50 51 W 6 2980 2206 6 White 3
9 AM Tue 52 55 W 6 3293 3231 1031 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 56 61 W 6 3398 3345 1145 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 58 65 W 7 3469 3415 1215 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 61 69 W 7 3639 3486 1286 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 63 71 W 7 4063 3521 1321 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 63 71 NW 12 4063 3521 1321 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 64 71 NW 12 4063 3521 1321 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 65 70 NW 12 3844 3503 1303 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 64 67 W 12 3504 3450 1250 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 63 64 W 12 3451 3397 1197 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 3398 3345 1145 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 9 3363 3309 1109 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 3328 3274 1074 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 9 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 55 55 SW 8 3293 3231 1031 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SW 8 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 54 54 SW 8 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 7 3257 3173 973 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 3198 2647 447 White 4
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 3198 2647 447 White 4
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 2980 2206 6 White 3
7 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 3198 2647 447 White 4
8 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 2980 2206 6 White 3
9 AM Wed 54 55 SW 6 3293 3231 1031 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 58 60 SW 6 3381 3327 1127 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 61 65 W 7 3469 3415 1215 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 64 69 W 7 3639 3486 1286 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 66 71 W 7 4063 3521 1321 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 66 71 W 9 4063 3521 1321 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 67 71 W 9 4063 3521 1321 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 69 72 W 9 4403 3626 1426 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 67 69 W 10 3639 3486 1286 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 66 67 W 10 3504 3450 1250 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 3434 3380 1180 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 3416 3362 1162 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 3363 3309 1109 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 3346 3292 1092 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 3328 3274 1074 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 W 7 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 56 56 W 7 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 56 56 W 6 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 6 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 6 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 3257 3173 973 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 52 52 S 6 3198 2647 447 White 4
7 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 52 53 SW 6 3257 3173 973 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 55 58 SW 6 3346 3292 1092 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 59 63 SW 6 3434 3380 1180 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 61 67 W 7 3504 3450 1250 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 64 72 W 7 4403 3626 1426 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 65 73 W 7 4739 3830 1630 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 66 74 W 9 5031 4037 1837 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 67 73 W 9 4739 3830 1630 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 68 73 W 9 4739 3830 1630 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 67 70 W 9 3844 3503 1303 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 65 66 W 9 3487 3433 1233 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 3434 3380 1180 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 3416 3362 1162 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 3363 3309 1109 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 3346 3292 1092 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 3346 3292 1092 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 7 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 7 3328 3274 1074 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 6 3310 3257 1057 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 3293 3231 1031 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 6 3275 3202 1002 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com