Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 2806 2200 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 2806 2200 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 9 1795 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 7 1795 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 N 7 2806 2200 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 N 7 3242 2200 0 White 3
10 AM Fri 51 52 N 7 3677 3215 1015 White 5
11 AM Fri 52 54 N 7 4110 3715 1515 White 7
12 Noon Fri 52 54 N 7 4110 3715 1515 White 7
1 PM Fri 53 55 NE 14 4325 4083 1883 White 8
2 PM Fri 53 54 NE 14 4110 3715 1515 White 7
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 14 3677 3215 1015 White 5
4 PM Fri 50 50 NE 17 3242 2200 0 White 3
5 PM Fri 47 47 NE 17 1795 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 17 663 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 NE 20 663 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NE 20 663 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 20 663 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 16 663 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 16 663 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 16 663 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 663 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 663 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 15 663 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 12 663 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 12 663 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 12 663 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 10 663 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NE 10 663 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 10 3242 2200 0 White 3
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 10 3894 3458 1258 White 6
11 AM Sat 53 55 NE 10 4325 4083 1883 White 8
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 10 4542 4542 2342 White 9
1 PM Sat 55 57 NW 7 4765 4765 2565 White 10
2 PM Sat 56 57 NW 7 4765 4765 2565 White 10
3 PM Sat 54 54 NW 7 4110 3715 1515 White 7
4 PM Sat 52 52 NE 7 3677 3215 1015 White 5
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 7 3024 2200 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 48 48 NE 7 2806 2200 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 7 1795 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 NE 7 1795 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NE 7 663 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 S 2 663 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 S 2 663 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 S 2 663 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 S 2 663 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 S 2 663 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 S 2 663 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 663 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 663 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 S 3 663 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 663 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 3 2806 2200 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 52 52 S 3 3677 3215 1015 White 5
10 AM Sun 53 54 W 7 4110 3715 1515 White 7
11 AM Sun 55 56 W 7 4542 4542 2342 White 9
12 Noon Sun 56 57 W 7 4765 4765 2565 White 10
1 PM Sun 57 58 W 7 4981 4981 2781 White 11
2 PM Sun 57 58 W 7 4981 4981 2781 White 11
3 PM Sun 56 56 W 7 4542 4542 2342 White 9
4 PM Sun 55 55 W 7 4325 4083 1883 White 8
5 PM Sun 53 53 W 7 3894 3458 1258 White 6
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 3677 3215 1015 White 5
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 3677 3215 1015 White 5
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 3677 3215 1015 White 5
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 3677 3215 1015 White 5
10 PM Sun 52 52 SW 5 3677 3215 1015 White 5
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 5 3677 3215 1015 White 5
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 5 3677 3215 1015 White 5
1 AM Mon 51 51 SW 5 3459 2972 772 White 4
2 AM Mon 51 51 SW 5 3459 2972 772 White 4
3 AM Mon 52 52 SW 5 3677 3215 1015 White 5
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 1 3677 3215 1015 White 5
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 1 3677 3215 1015 White 5
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 1 3459 2972 772 White 4
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 1 3459 2972 772 White 4
8 AM Mon 53 53 NE 1 3894 3458 1258 White 6
9 AM Mon 55 55 NE 1 4325 4083 1883 White 8
10 AM Mon 56 56 S 13 4542 4542 2342 White 9
11 AM Mon 57 57 S 13 4765 4765 2565 White 10
12 Noon Mon 58 58 S 13 4981 4981 2781 White 11
1 PM Mon 58 58 S 13 4981 4981 2781 White 11
2 PM Mon 59 59 S 13 5193 5193 2993 White 11
3 PM Mon 58 58 S 13 4981 4981 2781 White 11
4 PM Mon 58 58 S 7 4981 4981 2781 White 11
5 PM Mon 56 56 S 7 4542 4542 2342 White 9
6 PM Mon 56 56 S 7 4542 4542 2342 White 9
7 PM Mon 56 56 S 7 4542 4542 2342 White 9
8 PM Mon 55 55 S 7 4325 4083 1883 White 8
9 PM Mon 55 55 S 7 4325 4083 1883 White 8
10 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 4325 4083 1883 White 8
11 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 4325 4083 1883 White 8
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 S 6 4325 4083 1883 White 8
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 6 4325 4083 1883 White 8
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 6 4325 4083 1883 White 8
3 AM Tue 55 55 S 6 4325 4083 1883 White 8
4 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 4325 4083 1883 White 8
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 4325 4083 1883 White 8
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 4325 4083 1883 White 8
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 4325 4083 1883 White 8
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 3 4765 4765 2565 White 10
9 AM Tue 60 60 SE 3 5406 5406 3206 White 12
10 AM Tue 61 61 S 6 5617 5617 3417 White 13
11 AM Tue 62 62 S 6 5829 5829 3629 White 14
12 Noon Tue 62 62 S 6 5829 5829 3629 White 14
1 PM Tue 63 63 S 6 6040 6040 3840 White 15
2 PM Tue 64 64 S 6 6250 6250 4050 White 16
3 PM Tue 63 63 S 6 6040 6040 3840 White 15
4 PM Tue 63 63 S 7 6040 6040 3840 White 15
5 PM Tue 62 62 S 7 5829 5829 3629 White 14
6 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 5617 5617 3417 White 13
7 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 5617 5617 3417 White 13
8 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 5617 5617 3417 White 13
9 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 5617 5617 3417 White 13
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 9 5617 5617 3417 White 13
11 PM Tue 61 61 S 9 5617 5617 3417 White 13
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 S 9 5406 5406 3206 White 12
1 AM Wed 60 60 S 9 5406 5406 3206 White 12
2 AM Wed 60 60 S 9 5406 5406 3206 White 12
3 AM Wed 60 60 S 9 5406 5406 3206 White 12
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 5406 5406 3206 White 12
5 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 5406 5406 3206 White 12
6 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 5406 5406 3206 White 12
7 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 5406 5406 3206 White 12
8 AM Wed 61 61 S 7 5617 5617 3417 White 13
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 7 5829 5829 3629 White 14
10 AM Wed 63 63 S 9 6040 6040 3840 White 15
11 AM Wed 63 64 S 9 6250 6250 4050 White 16
12 Noon Wed 63 64 S 9 6250 6250 4050 White 16
1 PM Wed 64 65 S 9 6458 6458 4258 White 17
2 PM Wed 64 64 S 9 6250 6250 4050 White 16
3 PM Wed 63 63 S 9 6040 6040 3840 White 15
4 PM Wed 62 62 S 6 5829 5829 3629 White 14
5 PM Wed 61 61 S 6 5617 5617 3417 White 13
6 PM Wed 60 60 S 6 5406 5406 3206 White 12
7 PM Wed 60 60 S 6 5406 5406 3206 White 12
8 PM Wed 60 60 S 6 5406 5406 3206 White 12
9 PM Wed 60 60 S 6 5406 5406 3206 White 12
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 2 5406 5406 3206 White 12
11 PM Wed 60 60 S 2 5406 5406 3206 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 S 2 5193 5193 2993 White 11
1 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 5193 5193 2993 White 11
2 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 5193 5193 2993 White 11
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 5193 5193 2993 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com