Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 50 NW 2 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 NW 2 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NW 2 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 54 NW 3 1590 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 60 NW 3 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 64 NW 3 2574 2200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 63 69 W 12 4595 3467 1267 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 67 74 W 12 7517 5176 2976 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 70 78 W 12 7818 7578 5378 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 72 79 W 15 7893 7653 5453 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 72 78 W 15 7818 7578 5378 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 70 74 W 15 7517 5176 2976 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 68 71 W 14 5242 4351 2151 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 64 65 W 14 2966 2201 1 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 14 2019 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 8 1788 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 8 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 5 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 W 5 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 SW 5 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 SW 5 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 SW 5 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 2 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 W 2 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 W 2 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 60 N 3 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 66 N 3 3497 2385 185 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 66 71 N 3 5242 4351 2151 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 69 75 W 7 7592 5742 3542 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 74 81 W 7 8043 7803 5603 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 77 85 W 7 9231 8235 6035 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 79 86 W 13 9535 8544 6344 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 79 85 W 13 9231 8235 6035 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 77 81 W 13 8043 7803 5603 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 74 77 W 14 7743 7503 5303 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 70 71 W 14 5242 4351 2151 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 14 2966 2201 1 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 14 2204 2200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 14 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 14 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 S 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 S 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 S 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 SW 6 1788 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 SW 6 1788 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 6 1788 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 61 SW 6 2019 2200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 63 66 SW 6 3497 2385 185 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 66 71 SW 6 5242 4351 2151 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 68 74 W 12 7517 5176 2976 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 72 80 W 12 7968 7728 5528 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 74 82 W 12 8302 7878 5678 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 75 83 W 12 8615 7953 5753 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 75 81 W 12 8043 7803 5603 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 73 78 W 12 7818 7578 5378 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 70 73 W 12 6621 4796 2596 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 65 66 W 12 3497 2385 185 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 2019 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 12 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 12 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 12 1590 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 12 1590 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 12 1590 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 12 1689 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 W 12 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 W 12 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 W 12 1590 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 W 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 55 W 12 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 58 W 12 1788 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 61 W 12 2019 2200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 58 64 SW 10 2574 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 60 67 SW 10 4012 2569 369 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 62 69 SW 10 4595 3467 1267 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 62 69 SW 10 4595 3467 1267 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 63 69 SW 10 4595 3467 1267 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 61 65 SW 10 2966 2201 1 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 59 61 W 16 2019 2200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 56 57 W 16 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 16 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 16 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 16 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 16 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 SW 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 SW 15 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 15 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 15 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 51 SW 15 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 SW 15 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 57 SW 15 1738 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 60 W 13 1887 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 63 W 13 2389 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 58 65 W 13 2966 2201 1 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 59 66 W 13 3497 2385 185 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 59 65 W 13 2966 2201 1 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 58 62 W 13 2204 2200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 56 58 W 14 1788 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 55 W 14 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 14 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 14 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 14 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 14 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 10 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 10 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 10 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 10 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 10 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 10 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 W 6 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 W 6 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 59 W 6 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 63 W 6 2389 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 60 67 W 6 4012 2569 369 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 62 70 W 6 4818 3975 1775 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 64 71 W 6 5242 4351 2151 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 64 70 W 6 4818 3975 1775 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 62 66 W 6 3497 2385 185 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 60 63 W 12 2389 2200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 58 59 W 12 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 1639 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 5 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 W 5 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 5 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 1588 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 1588 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com