Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 74 74 W 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 W 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 W 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 78 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 SW 6 2981 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 83 SW 6 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 81 86 SW 10 4824 3281 281 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 82 89 SW 10 6495 4783 1783 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 82 89 SW 10 6495 4783 1783 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 83 90 W 15 6723 5430 2430 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 82 88 W 15 6112 4108 1108 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 81 85 W 15 4136 3000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 79 81 W 16 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 78 79 W 16 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 16 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 76 76 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 77 77 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 77 77 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 76 76 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 75 75 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 76 SW 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 79 SW 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 81 SW 12 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 78 83 S 13 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 78 85 S 13 4136 3000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 79 86 S 13 4824 3281 281 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 80 87 SW 16 5482 3581 581 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 79 85 SW 16 4136 3000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 78 82 SW 16 2981 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 76 78 SW 17 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 75 76 SW 17 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 75 75 SW 17 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 73 73 SW 17 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 74 SW 17 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 74 SW 17 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 74 SW 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 SW 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 74 74 SW 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 SW 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 SW 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 SW 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 SW 13 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 SW 13 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 SW 13 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 SW 13 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 75 SW 13 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 78 SW 13 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 75 80 SW 18 2641 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 81 SW 18 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 75 82 SW 18 2981 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 76 83 SW 18 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 75 81 SW 18 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 75 79 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 74 76 SW 20 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 73 74 SW 20 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 20 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 72 SW 20 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 20 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 SW 20 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 SW 18 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 78 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 76 81 W 8 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 82 W 8 2981 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 83 W 8 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 77 84 W 8 3588 3000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 76 82 W 8 2981 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 76 80 W 8 2641 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 76 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 74 75 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 SW 9 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 76 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 79 SW 6 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 81 W 12 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 77 83 W 12 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 77 84 W 12 3588 3000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 78 85 W 12 4136 3000 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 77 83 W 12 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 76 80 W 12 2641 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 75 77 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 74 75 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 73 73 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 SW 10 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 73 SW 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 SW 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 78 SW 7 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 76 81 SW 12 2785 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 76 83 SW 12 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 76 83 SW 12 3286 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 77 84 SW 12 3588 3000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 76 82 SW 12 2981 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 76 80 SW 12 2641 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 75 78 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 75 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 14 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 W 12 2635 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com