Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 N 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 N 14 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 N 14 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 N 14 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 60 N 13 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 64 N 13 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 65 N 13 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 68 N 12 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 66 69 N 12 4665 3987 987 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 65 67 N 12 4373 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 65 NW 10 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 NW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 NW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 NW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 E 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SE 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 SE 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 SE 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 63 E 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 67 E 2 4373 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 68 E 2 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 66 70 N 5 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 68 71 N 5 4989 4565 1565 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 68 70 N 5 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 68 68 N 6 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 66 66 N 6 4005 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 N 6 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 N 6 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 N 6 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 N 6 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 3 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 NE 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 NE 2 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 64 N 7 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 68 N 7 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 65 69 N 7 4665 3987 987 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 67 71 N 7 4989 4565 1565 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 69 72 N 7 5245 4660 1660 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 68 70 N 7 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 68 68 N 8 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 66 66 N 8 4005 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 N 7 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 65 NE 9 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 70 NE 9 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 68 72 NE 9 5245 4660 1660 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 71 75 NE 9 7088 5225 2225 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 73 76 NE 9 8018 5486 2486 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 72 73 NE 9 5508 4754 1754 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 72 72 NW 8 5245 4660 1660 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 70 70 NW 8 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 66 66 NW 8 4005 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 NW 8 4373 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 8 4373 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 8 4005 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 8 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 8 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 8 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 SW 8 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 66 NE 10 4005 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 69 NE 10 4665 3987 987 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 66 70 NE 10 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 68 72 NE 10 5245 4660 1660 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 70 73 NE 10 5508 4754 1754 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 70 71 NE 10 4989 4565 1565 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 70 70 W 8 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 8 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 9 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 9 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 9 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 W 9 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 9 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 SW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 SW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 SW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 SW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 60 SW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 SW 10 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 64 W 10 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 68 W 10 4570 3492 492 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 66 70 W 10 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 67 70 W 10 4760 4361 1361 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 69 71 W 10 4989 4565 1565 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 68 69 W 10 4665 3987 987 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 4665 3987 987 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 12 4373 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 3503 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 W 13 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 W 13 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 13 2988 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 13 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 13 2717 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 13 2717 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com