Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 5 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 W 5 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 W 5 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 SE 3 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 41 SE 3 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 46 N 5 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 52 N 5 3755 3000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 54 59 N 5 6715 5353 2353 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 59 63 N 9 9656 7389 4389 White 13
3 PM Fri 63 67 N 9 10497 10497 7497 White 17
4 PM Fri 64 66 N 9 10290 9448 6448 White 16
5 PM Fri 64 65 NW 12 10083 8423 5423 White 15
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 12 8485 6611 3611 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 12 6715 5353 2353 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 16 6133 5041 2041 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 59 59 NW 16 6715 5353 2353 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 60 60 NW 16 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 15 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 N 15 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 15 6133 5041 2041 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 16 5084 3748 748 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 53 53 N 16 4074 3278 278 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 16 3755 3000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 14 3282 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 14 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 14 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 16 2470 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 16 3519 3000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 54 56 N 16 5368 4059 1059 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 59 63 N 16 9656 7389 4389 White 13
12 Noon Sat 62 67 N 16 10497 10497 7497 White 17
1 PM Sat 65 71 N 16 11314 11314 8314 White 21
2 PM Sat 67 72 N 16 11518 11518 8518 White 22
3 PM Sat 69 73 N 16 11720 11720 8720 White 23
4 PM Sat 70 73 N 16 11720 11720 8720 White 23
5 PM Sat 71 72 N 15 11518 11518 8518 White 22
6 PM Sat 70 70 N 15 11111 11111 8111 White 20
7 PM Sat 69 69 N 15 10906 10906 7906 White 19
8 PM Sat 66 66 N 15 10290 9448 6448 White 16
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 15 9875 8094 5094 White 14
10 PM Sat 61 61 N 15 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 59 59 N 17 6715 5353 2353 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 N 17 5664 4426 1426 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 17 5368 4059 1059 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 17 4445 3513 513 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 17 4445 3513 513 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 17 4074 3278 278 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 17 3755 3000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 17 3519 3000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 17 3519 3000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 17 3755 3000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 17 5084 3748 748 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 57 59 N 17 6715 5353 2353 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 61 64 N 17 9875 8094 5094 White 14
12 Noon Sun 64 69 N 17 10906 10906 7906 White 19
1 PM Sun 67 72 N 17 11518 11518 8518 White 22
2 PM Sun 69 74 N 17 11922 11922 8922 White 24
3 PM Sun 72 76 N 17 12323 12323 9323 White 26
4 PM Sun 74 76 N 17 12323 12323 9323 White 26
5 PM Sun 75 76 N 16 12323 12323 9323 White 26
6 PM Sun 75 75 N 16 12122 12122 9122 White 25
7 PM Sun 75 75 N 16 12122 12122 9122 White 25
8 PM Sun 73 73 N 16 11720 11720 8720 White 23
9 PM Sun 72 72 N 16 11518 11518 8518 White 22
10 PM Sun 70 70 N 16 11111 11111 8111 White 20
11 PM Sun 68 68 N 15 10702 10702 7702 White 18
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 N 15 10290 9448 6448 White 16
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 15 10083 8423 5423 White 15
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 15 10083 8423 5423 White 15
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 15 10083 8423 5423 White 15
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 15 10083 8423 5423 White 15
5 AM Mon 63 63 N 14 9656 7389 4389 White 13
6 AM Mon 60 60 N 14 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 14 5368 4059 1059 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 14 5368 4059 1059 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 59 60 N 14 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 65 67 N 14 10497 10497 7497 White 17
11 AM Mon 70 74 N 13 11922 11922 8922 White 24
12 Noon Mon 74 79 N 13 12923 12923 9923 White 29
1 PM Mon 76 81 N 13 13321 13321 10321 White 31
2 PM Mon 78 83 N 13 13716 13716 10716 White 33
3 PM Mon 79 83 N 13 13716 13716 10716 White 33
4 PM Mon 80 83 N 13 13716 13716 10716 White 33
5 PM Mon 79 80 N 8 13122 13122 10122 White 30
6 PM Mon 76 76 N 8 12323 12323 9323 White 26
7 PM Mon 73 73 N 8 11720 11720 8720 White 23
8 PM Mon 70 70 N 8 11111 11111 8111 White 20
9 PM Mon 68 68 N 8 10702 10702 7702 White 18
10 PM Mon 67 67 N 8 10497 10497 7497 White 17
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 14 10290 9448 6448 White 16
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 N 14 10083 8423 5423 White 15
1 AM Tue 63 63 N 14 9656 7389 4389 White 13
2 AM Tue 62 62 N 14 8485 6611 3611 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 61 61 N 14 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 61 61 N 14 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 14 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 14 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 14 7506 5612 2612 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 14 8485 6611 3611 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 66 67 N 14 10497 10497 7497 White 17
10 AM Tue 70 72 N 14 11518 11518 8518 White 22
11 AM Tue 75 79 N 12 12923 12923 9923 White 29
12 Noon Tue 78 83 N 12 13716 13716 10716 White 33
1 PM Tue 80 85 N 12 14109 14109 11109 White 35
2 PM Tue 81 86 N 12 14306 14306 11306 White 36
3 PM Tue 82 86 N 12 14306 14306 11306 White 36
4 PM Tue 82 85 N 12 14109 14109 11109 White 35
5 PM Tue 81 82 N 6 13519 13519 10519 White 32
6 PM Tue 79 79 N 6 12923 12923 9923 White 29
7 PM Tue 75 75 N 6 12122 12122 9122 White 25
8 PM Tue 72 72 N 6 11518 11518 8518 White 22
9 PM Tue 69 69 N 6 10906 10906 7906 White 19
10 PM Tue 67 67 N 6 10497 10497 7497 White 17
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 6 10290 9448 6448 White 16
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 W 6 10083 8423 5423 White 15
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 6 10083 8423 5423 White 15
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 6 9875 8094 5094 White 14
3 AM Wed 63 63 W 6 9656 7389 4389 White 13
4 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 8485 6611 3611 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 61 61 NE 2 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 61 61 NE 2 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 61 61 NE 2 8153 6083 3083 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 63 63 NE 2 9656 7389 4389 White 13
9 AM Wed 66 67 NE 2 10497 10497 7497 White 17
10 AM Wed 70 72 NE 2 11518 11518 8518 White 22
11 AM Wed 74 77 E 7 12523 12523 9523 White 27
12 Noon Wed 77 81 E 7 13321 13321 10321 White 31
1 PM Wed 79 83 E 7 13716 13716 10716 White 33
2 PM Wed 80 84 E 7 13913 13913 10913 White 34
3 PM Wed 81 84 E 7 13913 13913 10913 White 34
4 PM Wed 82 84 E 7 13913 13913 10913 White 34
5 PM Wed 81 82 N 5 13519 13519 10519 White 32
6 PM Wed 79 79 N 5 12923 12923 9923 White 29
7 PM Wed 76 76 N 5 12323 12323 9323 White 26
8 PM Wed 73 73 N 5 11720 11720 8720 White 23
9 PM Wed 71 71 N 5 11314 11314 8314 White 21
10 PM Wed 70 70 N 5 11111 11111 8111 White 20
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 10906 10906 7906 White 19
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 5 10702 10702 7702 White 18
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 5 10497 10497 7497 White 17
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 5 10290 9448 6448 White 16
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 10083 8423 5423 White 15
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 10083 8423 5423 White 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com