Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 57 SW 8 2957 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 8 2687 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 8 2822 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 57 SW 7 2957 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 58 SW 7 3025 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 62 SW 7 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 59 64 SW 12 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 60 66 SW 12 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 61 68 SW 12 3353 3279 279 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 64 70 SW 15 3387 3328 328 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 64 67 SW 15 3329 3255 255 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 65 66 SW 15 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 66 67 SW 15 3329 3255 255 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 63 64 SW 15 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 15 3182 3024 24 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 58 58 SW 10 3025 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 2957 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 SW 10 2890 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 S 6 2890 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 S 6 2890 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 S 6 2822 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 SE 6 2822 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 SE 6 2822 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 6 2822 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 2822 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NW 5 2890 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NW 5 2890 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 NW 5 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 NW 5 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 62 66 NW 5 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 64 71 W 6 3402 3353 353 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 66 74 W 6 3445 3401 401 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 68 77 W 6 3488 3444 444 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 70 78 W 10 3526 3459 459 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 72 79 W 10 3611 3473 473 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 71 76 W 10 3474 3430 430 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 70 73 W 13 3430 3387 387 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 68 69 W 13 3373 3304 304 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 13 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 10 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 10 3182 3024 24 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 7 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NW 7 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 62 63 N 6 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 64 66 N 6 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 67 71 N 6 3402 3353 353 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 70 77 NW 6 3488 3444 444 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 73 81 NW 6 3923 3525 525 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 75 84 NW 6 5203 3918 918 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 76 84 NW 10 5203 3918 918 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 77 84 NW 10 5203 3918 918 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 77 82 NW 10 4695 3607 607 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 76 79 W 12 3611 3473 473 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 75 76 W 12 3474 3430 430 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 12 3416 3373 373 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 10 3387 3328 328 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 3373 3304 304 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 67 67 W 10 3329 3255 255 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 66 66 NW 7 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NW 7 3280 3206 206 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 64 64 NW 7 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 64 64 NW 7 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 63 63 NW 7 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 62 62 NW 7 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 62 62 NW 7 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 63 63 NW 7 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 65 65 NW 7 3280 3206 206 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 67 68 N 8 3353 3279 279 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 69 72 N 8 3416 3373 373 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 71 76 N 8 3474 3430 430 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 73 80 N 5 3767 3488 488 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 75 83 N 5 4885 3762 762 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 76 85 N 5 5531 4684 1684 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 77 85 W 17 5531 4684 1684 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 77 84 W 17 5203 3918 918 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 76 81 W 17 3923 3525 525 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 75 78 W 18 3526 3459 459 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 73 74 W 18 3445 3401 401 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 70 70 W 18 3387 3328 328 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 17 3353 3279 279 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 66 66 SW 17 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 65 65 SW 17 3280 3206 206 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 64 64 SW 18 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 18 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 63 63 SW 18 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 63 63 SW 17 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 62 62 SW 17 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 62 62 SW 17 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 62 62 SW 16 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 62 62 SW 16 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 16 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 15 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 66 68 SW 15 3353 3279 279 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 68 72 SW 15 3416 3373 373 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 70 77 W 14 3488 3444 444 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 72 80 W 14 3767 3488 488 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 74 83 W 14 4885 3762 762 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 76 84 W 15 5203 3918 918 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 76 83 W 15 4885 3762 762 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 76 81 W 15 3923 3525 525 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 75 78 W 15 3526 3459 459 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 73 74 W 15 3445 3401 401 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 15 3387 3328 328 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 67 67 SW 14 3329 3255 255 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 14 3280 3206 206 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 14 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 16 3207 3083 83 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 16 3182 3024 24 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 61 61 SW 16 3182 3024 24 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 60 60 SW 17 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 17 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 17 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 16 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 16 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 16 3182 3024 24 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 62 63 W 15 3231 3132 132 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 64 66 W 15 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 65 69 W 15 3373 3304 304 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 66 73 W 15 3430 3387 387 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 68 76 W 15 3474 3430 430 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 70 79 W 15 3611 3473 473 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 72 80 W 17 3767 3488 488 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 72 79 W 17 3611 3473 473 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 73 78 W 17 3526 3459 459 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 72 75 W 16 3459 3416 416 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 70 71 W 16 3402 3353 353 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 16 3304 3231 231 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 15 3255 3181 181 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 15 3182 3024 24 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 15 3133 3000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 59 59 SW 15 3084 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 15 3025 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 15 3025 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 17 3025 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 W 17 3025 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 17 2957 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com