Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 61 NW 8 2732 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 NW 8 2732 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NW 8 2749 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 NW 6 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 NW 6 2868 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 74 NW 6 5930 3000 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 73 80 W 7 8899 7333 4333 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 75 83 W 7 9310 8864 5864 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 77 86 W 7 9600 9290 6290 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 78 86 W 14 9600 9290 6290 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 79 86 W 14 9600 9290 6290 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 79 84 W 14 9407 9037 6037 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 77 80 W 16 8899 7333 4333 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 76 77 W 16 7364 5891 2891 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 16 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 16 2917 3000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 16 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 16 2834 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 14 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 14 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 W 14 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 W 12 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 W 12 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 W 12 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 W 8 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 W 8 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 SW 6 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 72 SW 6 3809 3000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 72 76 SW 6 7149 5221 2221 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 74 80 W 14 8899 7333 4333 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 76 83 W 14 9310 8864 5864 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 78 86 W 14 9600 9290 6290 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 80 88 W 20 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 80 87 W 20 9697 9386 6386 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 80 85 W 20 9503 9193 6193 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 78 81 W 21 9072 8184 5184 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 21 7364 5891 2891 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 21 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 21 2917 3000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 21 2834 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 21 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 18 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 W 18 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 18 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 W 18 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 18 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 W 18 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 NW 14 2749 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 14 2749 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NW 14 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 NW 14 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 NW 14 2986 3000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 73 77 NW 14 7364 5891 2891 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 76 82 NW 8 9214 8680 5680 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 78 86 NW 8 9600 9290 6290 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 80 88 NW 8 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 82 90 NW 8 10348 9675 6675 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 83 90 NW 8 10348 9675 6675 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 83 88 NW 8 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 81 84 NW 13 9407 9037 6037 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 79 80 NW 13 8899 7333 4333 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 76 76 NW 13 7149 5221 2221 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 71 71 NW 13 2986 3000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 68 68 NW 13 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 NW 13 2834 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 NW 10 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NW 10 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 NW 10 2834 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 NW 10 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NW 10 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 10 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 N 10 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 N 10 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 N 10 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 N 10 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 73 N 10 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 73 78 N 10 8272 6281 3281 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 76 82 NW 9 9214 8680 5680 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 78 86 NW 9 9600 9290 6290 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 81 89 NW 9 9996 9579 6579 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 83 91 NW 9 10750 9771 6771 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 84 91 NW 9 10750 9771 6771 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 83 88 NW 9 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 81 84 W 14 9407 9037 6037 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 80 81 W 14 9072 8184 5184 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 76 76 W 14 7149 5221 2221 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 14 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 14 2917 3000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 14 2868 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 8 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 SW 8 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 SW 8 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 SW 8 2834 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 SW 8 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 8 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SW 6 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 SW 6 2917 3000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 72 75 SW 6 6324 3692 692 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 75 80 SW 6 8899 7333 4333 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 78 84 NW 10 9407 9037 6037 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 80 88 NW 10 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 83 91 NW 10 10750 9771 6771 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 84 92 NW 10 11052 9916 6916 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 85 92 NW 10 11052 9916 6916 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 85 90 NW 10 10348 9675 6675 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 82 85 NW 12 9503 9193 6193 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 81 82 NW 12 9214 8680 5680 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 77 77 NW 12 7364 5891 2891 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 73 73 NW 12 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 12 2917 3000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 12 2868 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 9 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 9 2851 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 W 9 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 W 9 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 W 9 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 W 7 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 W 7 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 W 7 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 W 7 2868 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 73 W 7 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 72 77 W 7 7364 5891 2891 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 75 81 W 14 9072 8184 5184 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 77 85 W 14 9503 9193 6193 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 79 87 W 14 9697 9386 6386 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 80 88 W 14 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 81 88 W 14 9793 9482 6482 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 80 85 W 14 9503 9193 6193 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 78 81 W 18 9072 8184 5184 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 76 77 W 18 7364 5891 2891 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 18 5284 3000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 18 2868 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 18 2817 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 18 2800 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 W 15 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 15 2766 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 15 2783 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 15 2749 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 15 2732 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 W 15 2732 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com