Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 68 68 SW 10 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SW 10 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 SW 10 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 S 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 S 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 73 S 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 76 SW 7 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 79 SW 7 3427 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 74 81 SW 7 4516 3161 161 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 74 81 W 10 4516 3161 161 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 74 80 W 10 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 74 78 W 10 3162 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 73 75 W 13 2832 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 73 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 SW 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 SW 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SW 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 SW 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 SW 9 2722 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 77 SW 9 3052 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 80 SW 9 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 77 84 SW 9 5708 4495 1495 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 78 85 SW 9 5950 4895 1895 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 78 85 SW 12 5950 4895 1895 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 78 84 SW 12 5708 4495 1495 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 78 82 SW 12 4921 3424 424 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 77 79 W 14 3427 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 76 77 W 14 3052 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 14 2722 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 W 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 W 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 W 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 W 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 W 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 W 5 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 W 5 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 W 5 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 W 2 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 76 W 2 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 80 SW 5 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 77 84 SW 5 5708 4495 1495 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 79 86 SW 5 6958 5456 2456 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 80 86 W 10 6958 5456 2456 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 80 85 W 10 5950 4895 1895 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 80 84 W 10 5708 4495 1495 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 80 82 W 13 4921 3424 424 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 78 79 W 13 3427 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 13 2832 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 72 72 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 W 10 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 W 10 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 W 10 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 W 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 W 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 W 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 SW 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 SW 9 2722 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 77 SW 9 3052 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 80 W 14 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 77 83 W 14 5475 3564 564 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 78 84 W 14 5708 4495 1495 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 79 85 W 17 5950 4895 1895 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 79 84 W 17 5708 4495 1495 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 79 83 W 17 5475 3564 564 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 78 80 W 17 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 76 77 W 17 3052 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 17 2722 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 72 SW 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 SW 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 SW 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 SW 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 74 SW 13 2722 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 77 SW 17 3052 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 80 SW 17 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 75 81 SW 17 4516 3161 161 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 76 82 W 20 4921 3424 424 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 76 81 W 20 4516 3161 161 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 75 79 W 20 3427 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 74 76 W 20 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 73 W 20 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 20 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SW 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 SW 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 SW 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 SW 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 SW 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 73 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 75 W 18 2832 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 71 78 W 18 3162 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 72 79 W 18 3427 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 73 80 W 18 3567 3051 51 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 73 79 W 18 3427 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 73 77 W 18 3052 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 72 74 W 18 2722 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 72 W 18 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 18 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 SW 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 SW 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 SW 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com