Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 2 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 2 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NW 2 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 W 2 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 W 2 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 W 2 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 W 2 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 50 51 W 2 3986 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 51 53 W 2 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 52 53 SW 3 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 53 54 SW 3 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 52 52 SW 3 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 50 50 W 7 3925 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 7 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 9 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 9 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 9 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 49 49 W 8 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 8 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 W 8 3864 3000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 7 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 SW 7 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 SW 7 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 SW 9 2720 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 3925 3000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 52 52 SW 9 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 54 54 SW 8 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 55 55 SW 8 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 56 56 SW 8 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 57 57 S 6 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 57 57 S 6 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 57 57 S 6 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 56 56 SE 8 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 54 54 SE 8 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 53 53 SE 8 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 53 53 SE 8 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 53 53 SE 8 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 52 52 SE 8 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 52 52 S 12 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 52 52 S 12 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 S 12 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 52 52 S 12 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 52 52 S 12 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 52 52 S 12 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 52 52 S 9 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 52 52 S 9 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 51 51 S 9 3986 3000 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 51 51 S 9 3986 3000 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 54 54 S 9 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 60 60 S 7 4559 4351 1351 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 61 62 S 7 4718 4477 1477 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 62 63 S 7 5038 4555 1555 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 64 65 S 7 5312 4711 1711 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 64 64 S 7 5191 4633 1633 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 63 63 S 7 5038 4555 1555 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 62 62 SE 8 4718 4477 1477 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 59 59 SE 8 4481 4289 1289 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 58 58 SE 8 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 57 57 SE 8 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 57 57 SE 8 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 57 57 SE 8 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 55 55 S 8 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 8 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 57 57 S 8 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 59 59 S 8 4481 4289 1289 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 61 62 SE 6 4718 4477 1477 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 62 64 SE 6 5191 4633 1633 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 63 65 SE 6 5312 4711 1711 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 64 66 SE 6 5433 5025 2025 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 64 65 SE 6 5312 4711 1711 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 64 64 SE 6 5191 4633 1633 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 62 62 SW 5 4718 4477 1477 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 60 60 SW 5 4559 4351 1351 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 58 58 SW 5 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 5 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 5 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 5 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 56 56 NW 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 56 56 NW 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NW 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 56 56 S 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 56 56 S 2 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 55 55 S 2 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 55 55 S 2 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 4481 4289 1289 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 61 62 W 3 4718 4477 1477 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 62 63 W 3 5038 4555 1555 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 62 63 W 3 5038 4555 1555 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 64 65 W 3 5312 4711 1711 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 64 65 W 3 5312 4711 1711 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 5038 4555 1555 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 62 62 NW 5 4718 4477 1477 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 58 58 NW 5 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 57 57 NW 5 4354 4166 1166 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NW 5 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 5 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 5 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 54 54 NW 5 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 55 55 N 5 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 56 56 N 5 4292 4105 1105 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 58 58 N 2 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 58 58 N 2 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 59 60 N 2 4559 4351 1351 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 60 60 N 2 4559 4351 1351 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 60 60 N 2 4559 4351 1351 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 60 60 N 2 4559 4351 1351 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 58 58 W 2 4415 4228 1228 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 55 55 W 2 4230 4044 1044 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 2 4169 3984 984 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 53 53 W 2 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 53 53 W 2 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 2 4108 3923 923 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 52 52 N 1 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 52 52 N 1 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 1 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 52 52 N 1 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 1 4047 3862 862 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 1 4047 3862 862 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com