Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 9 13 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 8 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 5 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 4 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 4 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 4 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 5 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 S 4 6 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 70 S 4 6 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 73 SSW 5 9 3260 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 76 SSW 6 10 5375 3255 255 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 70 78 SW 8 12 5939 3917 917 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 72 80 WSW 10 14 7591 5633 2633 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 73 81 WSW 11 17 8353 5912 2912 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 72 78 WSW 11 18 5939 3917 917 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 71 75 WSW 12 19 3928 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 70 73 WSW 13 20 3260 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 69 WSW 12 19 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 11 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 11 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SW 8 12 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 6 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SW 6 10 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 SW 6 10 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 66 SW 6 9 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 69 SW 6 10 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 73 WSW 10 16 3260 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 75 WSW 10 16 3928 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 76 WSW 10 16 5375 3255 255 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 68 75 WSW 14 21 3928 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 68 74 WSW 14 21 3595 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 71 WSW 14 21 2579 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 67 W 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 63 W 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 10 14 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 10 14 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 10 14 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 12 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 12 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 12 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 10 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 10 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 10 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 W 6 9 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 W 6 9 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 59 W 6 9 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 63 WSW 9 14 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 67 WSW 9 14 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 68 WSW 9 14 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 69 WSW 16 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 67 WSW 16 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 64 WSW 16 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 60 WSW 18 27 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 56 WSW 18 27 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 18 27 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 18 26 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 18 26 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 18 26 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 SW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 S 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 S 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 S 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SSE 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 SSE 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SSE 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 54 SSW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 56 SSW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 59 SSW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 64 WSW 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 67 WSW 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 69 WSW 8 11 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 71 W 10 16 2579 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 70 W 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 67 W 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 64 W 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 62 W 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 SW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 SW 11 17 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 12 19 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 12 19 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 12 19 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 SW 14 21 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SW 14 21 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 SW 14 21 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 SW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 SW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 61 SW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 65 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 68 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 69 WSW 10 16 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 72 W 13 20 2921 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 70 W 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 67 W 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 64 WSW 17 25 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 61 WSW 17 25 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 17 25 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 WSW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 13 20 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 SW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 SW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SW 16 24 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 SW 16 24 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SW 16 24 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 53 SW 14 21 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 56 SW 14 21 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 58 SW 14 21 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 63 WSW 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 66 WSW 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 67 WSW 12 18 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 69 WSW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 68 WSW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 65 WSW 14 23 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 61 WSW 18 26 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 58 WSW 18 26 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 18 26 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 16 25 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 16 25 2566 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 16 25 2566 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com