Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 37 37 W 20 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 W 20 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 W 20 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 W 24 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 W 24 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 W 24 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 38 W 25 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 38 39 W 25 4587 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 39 40 W 25 4917 3716 716 White 3
1 PM Sat 39 40 W 24 4917 3716 716 White 3
2 PM Sat 40 40 W 24 4917 3716 716 White 3
3 PM Sat 40 40 W 24 4917 3716 716 White 3
4 PM Sat 39 39 W 22 4587 3000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 38 38 W 22 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 37 37 W 22 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 W 17 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 W 17 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 17 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SW 16 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 SW 16 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 SW 16 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 NW 14 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 14 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 14 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 N 17 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 N 17 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 N 17 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 36 NE 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 37 NE 18 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 38 NE 18 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 38 39 NW 14 4587 3000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 38 39 NW 14 4587 3000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 38 38 NW 14 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 38 38 NW 15 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 37 37 NW 15 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 NW 15 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 N 20 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 N 20 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 N 20 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 35 N 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 38 N 18 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 38 41 N 18 5132 4042 1042 White 4
12 Noon Mon 40 43 N 18 5562 5430 2430 White 6
1 PM Mon 41 44 N 17 5777 5777 2777 White 7
2 PM Mon 42 45 N 17 5991 5991 2991 White 8
3 PM Mon 42 43 N 17 5562 5430 2430 White 6
4 PM Mon 41 41 N 21 5132 4042 1042 White 4
5 PM Mon 40 40 N 21 4917 3716 716 White 3
6 PM Mon 38 38 N 21 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 37 37 N 25 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 25 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 N 25 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 N 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 22 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 N 12 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 36 N 12 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 38 N 14 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 38 40 N 14 4917 3716 716 White 3
12 Noon Tue 39 41 N 14 5132 4042 1042 White 4
1 PM Tue 40 42 N 14 5348 4532 1532 White 5
2 PM Tue 41 43 N 14 5562 5430 2430 White 6
3 PM Tue 41 42 N 14 5348 4532 1532 White 5
4 PM Tue 40 40 NW 15 4917 3716 716 White 3
5 PM Tue 40 40 NW 15 4917 3716 716 White 3
6 PM Tue 38 38 NW 15 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 37 37 NW 15 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 NW 15 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 NW 15 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 S 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 S 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 S 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 S 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 S 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 S 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 SW 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SW 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 SW 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 SW 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 SW 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SW 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 38 NW 16 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 39 40 NW 16 4917 3716 716 White 3
12 Noon Wed 40 41 NW 16 5132 4042 1042 White 4
1 PM Wed 41 42 NW 16 5348 4532 1532 White 5
2 PM Wed 42 43 NW 16 5562 5430 2430 White 6
3 PM Wed 42 42 NW 16 5348 4532 1532 White 5
4 PM Wed 41 41 NW 20 5132 4042 1042 White 4
5 PM Wed 40 40 NW 20 4917 3716 716 White 3
6 PM Wed 39 39 NW 20 4587 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 37 37 W 21 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 W 21 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 21 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 W 23 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 W 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 W 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 W 21 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 W 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 W 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 NW 24 3736 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 38 NW 24 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 39 41 NW 24 5132 4042 1042 White 4
1 PM Thu 40 42 N 23 5348 4532 1532 White 5
2 PM Thu 40 41 N 23 5132 4042 1042 White 4
3 PM Thu 40 41 N 23 5132 4042 1042 White 4
4 PM Thu 40 40 N 23 4917 3716 716 White 3
5 PM Thu 39 39 N 23 4587 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 38 38 N 23 4055 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 36 36 NW 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 NW 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NW 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 N 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 N 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 N 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 N 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 N 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 N 25 2713 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com