Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 20 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 S 20 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 S 20 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 49 S 31 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 50 S 31 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 50 S 31 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 29 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 S 29 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 S 29 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 S 21 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 S 21 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 S 21 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 SW 14 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 SW 14 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 SW 14 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 S 14 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 S 14 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 S 14 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 S 12 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 49 S 13 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 50 S 13 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 51 S 13 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 52 S 13 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 52 S 13 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 52 S 13 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 S 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 S 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 S 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 S 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 S 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 S 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 S 18 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 S 18 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 S 18 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 S 18 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 S 18 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 S 18 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 22 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 S 22 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 S 22 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 S 22 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 22 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 S 22 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 51 S 23 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 52 S 23 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 52 S 23 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 53 S 23 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 53 53 S 23 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 S 23 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 S 24 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 S 25 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 S 25 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 S 25 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 S 25 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 25 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 S 25 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SW 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 SW 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 SW 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 SW 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 49 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 50 50 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 50 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 7 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 W 7 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 W 7 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 7 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 7 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 SW 6 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 48 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 50 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 51 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 52 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 51 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 SW 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 N 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 N 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 N 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 N 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 N 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 W 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 W 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 E 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 E 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 E 9 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 51 NE 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 55 NE 10 2732 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 56 NE 10 3289 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 58 NE 10 3995 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 57 57 NE 10 3777 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 NE 10 3777 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 NE 8 3289 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 NE 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NE 8 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 E 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 E 10 2654 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com