Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 47 NW 17 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 48 48 NW 18 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 45 45 NW 20 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NW 18 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 44 44 NW 17 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 NW 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 N 14 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 43 N 16 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 45 N 15 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 46 N 16 3293 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 45 46 N 17 3293 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 N 17 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 N 18 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 N 17 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 N 20 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 22 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 N 22 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 N 23 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 N 24 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 N 25 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 N 26 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 26 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 26 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 28 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 30 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 30 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 N 29 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 N 29 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 29 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 N 26 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 N 22 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 43 N 22 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 43 45 N 22 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 47 49 N 23 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 48 49 N 23 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 47 47 N 23 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 46 46 N 28 3293 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 N 28 3293 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 N 28 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 50 50 NE 30 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 51 51 NE 30 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 51 51 NE 30 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 51 51 NE 23 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 23 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 23 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 13 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 13 3293 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NE 13 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NE 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NE 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 NE 3 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 NE 3 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 NE 3 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 NE 1 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 44 NE 1 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 44 46 NE 1 3293 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 49 SE 1 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 48 49 SE 1 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 47 47 SE 1 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 47 47 SW 1 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 47 47 SW 1 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 48 48 SW 1 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 0 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 51 51 W 0 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 0 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 51 51 SE 3 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 51 51 SE 3 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SE 3 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 51 51 SE 3 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 50 50 SE 3 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 49 49 SE 3 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 47 47 SE 5 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SE 5 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 NE 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NE 7 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 49 51 NE 7 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 50 52 NE 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 51 52 NE 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 50 50 NE 7 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 49 49 NE 6 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 6 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 49 49 NE 6 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 6 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 4224 3841 841 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 4224 3841 841 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 E 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 52 52 E 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 51 51 E 6 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 7 3593 3000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 7 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 NE 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 NE 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 NE 7 3719 3283 283 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 51 52 NE 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 50 51 NE 7 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 47 47 NE 7 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 51 51 NW 6 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 52 52 NW 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 6 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 51 51 W 7 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 7 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 47 47 W 7 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 W 8 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 SW 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 SW 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 SW 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 44 W 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 44 W 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 44 W 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 45 W 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 45 W 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 W 9 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 NW 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 NW 7 2710 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 7 3467 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 3846 3464 464 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 7 3972 3590 590 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 7 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 52 52 NW 8 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 52 52 NW 8 4098 3716 716 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 52 52 NW 8 4098 3716 716 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com