Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 50 50 NW 8 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NW 12 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 NW 12 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 52 NW 12 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 55 W 15 3294 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 54 56 W 15 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 56 59 W 15 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 56 59 W 13 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 56 59 W 13 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 55 56 W 13 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 54 54 W 14 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 14 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 13 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 13 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 13 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 14 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 14 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 W 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 W 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NW 18 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NW 18 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 53 53 NW 18 3078 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NW 17 3078 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 NW 17 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 56 57 NW 17 3510 3185 185 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 56 58 NW 16 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 56 58 NW 16 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 57 60 NW 16 4462 3507 507 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 58 61 W 14 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 57 59 W 14 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 54 55 W 14 3294 3000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 15 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 15 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 W 15 2625 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NW 16 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 NW 16 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NW 16 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NW 15 3078 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NW 15 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 54 54 NW 15 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 10 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 10 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 54 54 N 10 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 10 3078 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 10 2713 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NW 7 3078 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 NW 7 3186 3000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 56 57 NW 7 3510 3185 185 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 58 61 N 5 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 59 63 N 5 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 60 64 N 5 6442 4978 1978 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 60 63 NW 9 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 60 62 NW 9 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 60 61 NW 9 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 60 60 NW 13 4462 3507 507 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 58 58 NW 13 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 56 56 NW 13 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 3294 3000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 3294 3000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 12 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 17 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 N 17 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 17 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 21 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 56 56 N 21 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 21 3510 3185 185 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 21 3510 3185 185 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 21 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 21 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 12 3402 3077 77 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 57 57 N 12 3510 3185 185 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 59 60 N 12 4462 3507 507 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 61 64 N 14 6442 4978 1978 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 62 66 N 14 7225 5931 2931 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 64 68 N 14 7723 6836 3836 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 65 69 N 13 7970 7189 4189 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 66 69 N 13 7970 7189 4189 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 67 68 N 13 7723 6836 3836 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 67 67 N 9 7475 6389 3389 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 65 65 N 9 6895 5461 2461 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 63 63 N 9 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 62 62 SW 7 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SW 7 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 62 62 SW 7 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 61 61 NW 8 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 61 61 NW 8 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 60 60 NW 8 4462 3507 507 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 12 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 12 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 12 3510 3185 185 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 13 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 59 59 NE 13 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 61 62 NE 13 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 63 66 N 13 7225 5931 2931 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 65 69 N 13 7970 7189 4189 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 67 71 N 13 8460 7683 4683 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 68 72 N 13 8702 7928 4928 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 69 72 N 13 8702 7928 4928 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 70 71 N 13 8460 7683 4683 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 69 69 NW 9 7970 7189 4189 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 67 67 NW 9 7475 6389 3389 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 64 64 NW 9 6442 4978 1978 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 7 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 61 61 W 7 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 7 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 SW 9 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 63 63 SW 9 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 9 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 9 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 61 61 W 9 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 12 4462 3507 507 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 12 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 12 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 12 3624 3292 292 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 59 59 N 12 4047 3400 400 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 61 62 N 12 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 64 67 N 14 7475 6389 3389 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 66 70 N 14 8216 7437 4437 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 68 72 N 14 8702 7928 4928 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 69 73 N 14 8920 8172 5172 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 70 73 N 14 8920 8172 5172 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 70 71 N 14 8460 7683 4683 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 69 69 N 12 7970 7189 4189 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 66 66 N 12 7225 5931 2931 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 64 64 N 12 6442 4978 1978 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 63 63 N 10 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 N 10 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 63 63 N 10 5979 4440 1440 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 62 62 N 12 5503 4030 1030 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 61 61 N 12 5013 3615 615 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 12 4462 3507 507 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com