Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 13 5250 4341 1341 White 3
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 13 4814 3000 0 White 1
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 13 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 43 NW 14 4814 3000 0 White 1
1 PM Fri 41 41 W 15 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 40 W 15 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 W 15 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 NW 17 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 NW 17 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 NW 17 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NW 18 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 NW 18 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 NW 18 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NW 16 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NW 16 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NW 16 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 NW 13 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 NW 13 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NW 13 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 NW 14 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NW 14 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NW 14 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 N 15 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 15 2631 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 N 15 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 N 15 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 44 N 15 5033 3688 688 White 2
12 Noon Sat 44 46 N 15 5466 4841 1841 White 4
1 PM Sat 44 46 NW 15 5466 4841 1841 White 4
2 PM Sat 43 44 NW 15 5033 3688 688 White 2
3 PM Sat 44 44 NW 15 5033 3688 688 White 2
4 PM Sat 44 44 NW 15 5033 3688 688 White 2
5 PM Sat 42 42 NW 15 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 15 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 NW 15 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NW 15 4814 3000 0 White 1
9 PM Sat 42 42 NW 15 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 W 12 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 W 12 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 W 12 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 W 12 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 W 12 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 12 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 13 3710 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SW 13 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 SW 13 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 SW 13 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SW 13 2942 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 SW 13 4367 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 S 24 4814 3000 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 44 44 S 24 5033 3688 688 White 2
12 Noon Sun 45 45 S 24 5250 4341 1341 White 3
1 PM Sun 45 45 S 24 5250 4341 1341 White 3
2 PM Sun 45 45 S 24 5250 4341 1341 White 3
3 PM Sun 45 45 S 24 5250 4341 1341 White 3
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 28 5250 4341 1341 White 3
5 PM Sun 44 44 S 28 5033 3688 688 White 2
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 28 5033 3688 688 White 2
7 PM Sun 44 44 S 28 5033 3688 688 White 2
8 PM Sun 45 45 S 28 5250 4341 1341 White 3
9 PM Sun 44 44 S 28 5033 3688 688 White 2
10 PM Sun 44 44 S 26 5033 3688 688 White 2
11 PM Sun 44 44 S 26 5033 3688 688 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 S 26 5033 3688 688 White 2
1 AM Mon 44 44 S 26 5033 3688 688 White 2
2 AM Mon 44 44 S 26 5033 3688 688 White 2
3 AM Mon 44 44 S 26 5033 3688 688 White 2
4 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 5033 3688 688 White 2
5 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 5033 3688 688 White 2
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 5033 3688 688 White 2
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 5033 3688 688 White 2
8 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 5033 3688 688 White 2
9 AM Mon 46 46 W 13 5466 4841 1841 White 4
10 AM Mon 47 47 W 7 5682 5159 2159 White 5
11 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 5897 5479 2479 White 6
12 Noon Mon 49 49 W 7 6112 5821 2821 White 7
1 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 6112 5821 2821 White 7
2 PM Mon 48 48 W 7 5897 5479 2479 White 6
3 PM Mon 48 48 W 7 5897 5479 2479 White 6
4 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 5897 5479 2479 White 6
5 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 5466 4841 1841 White 4
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 8 5250 4341 1341 White 3
7 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 5466 4841 1841 White 4
8 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 5682 5159 2159 White 5
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 5682 5159 2159 White 5
10 PM Mon 45 45 N 3 5250 4341 1341 White 3
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 3 5466 4841 1841 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 3 5466 4841 1841 White 4
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 3 5250 4341 1341 White 3
2 AM Tue 44 44 N 3 5033 3688 688 White 2
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 3 5033 3688 688 White 2
4 AM Tue 45 45 W 3 5250 4341 1341 White 3
5 AM Tue 44 44 W 3 5033 3688 688 White 2
6 AM Tue 44 44 W 3 5033 3688 688 White 2
7 AM Tue 44 44 W 3 5033 3688 688 White 2
8 AM Tue 44 44 W 3 5033 3688 688 White 2
9 AM Tue 46 46 W 3 5466 4841 1841 White 4
10 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 5682 5159 2159 White 5
11 AM Tue 48 48 SE 2 5897 5479 2479 White 6
12 Noon Tue 49 49 SE 2 6112 5821 2821 White 7
1 PM Tue 49 49 SE 2 6112 5821 2821 White 7
2 PM Tue 48 48 SE 2 5897 5479 2479 White 6
3 PM Tue 48 48 SE 2 5897 5479 2479 White 6
4 PM Tue 48 48 SW 7 5897 5479 2479 White 6
5 PM Tue 47 47 SW 7 5682 5159 2159 White 5
6 PM Tue 47 47 SW 7 5682 5159 2159 White 5
7 PM Tue 47 47 SW 7 5682 5159 2159 White 5
8 PM Tue 48 48 SW 7 5897 5479 2479 White 6
9 PM Tue 48 48 SW 7 5897 5479 2479 White 6
10 PM Tue 47 47 SW 17 5682 5159 2159 White 5
11 PM Tue 47 47 SW 17 5682 5159 2159 White 5
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SW 17 5682 5159 2159 White 5
1 AM Wed 47 47 SW 17 5682 5159 2159 White 5
2 AM Wed 46 46 SW 17 5466 4841 1841 White 4
3 AM Wed 46 46 SW 17 5466 4841 1841 White 4
4 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 5682 5159 2159 White 5
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 5466 4841 1841 White 4
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 5466 4841 1841 White 4
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 5466 4841 1841 White 4
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 5466 4841 1841 White 4
9 AM Wed 48 48 S 10 5897 5479 2479 White 6
10 AM Wed 48 48 S 16 5897 5479 2479 White 6
11 AM Wed 49 49 S 16 6112 5821 2821 White 7
12 Noon Wed 50 50 S 16 6326 6106 3106 White 8
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 16 6112 5821 2821 White 7
2 PM Wed 48 48 S 16 5897 5479 2479 White 6
3 PM Wed 49 49 S 16 6112 5821 2821 White 7
4 PM Wed 49 49 W 20 6112 5821 2821 White 7
5 PM Wed 47 47 W 20 5682 5159 2159 White 5
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 20 5466 4841 1841 White 4
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 20 5466 4841 1841 White 4
8 PM Wed 47 47 W 20 5682 5159 2159 White 5
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 20 5682 5159 2159 White 5
10 PM Wed 46 46 W 20 5466 4841 1841 White 4
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 20 5466 4841 1841 White 4
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 20 5466 4841 1841 White 4
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 20 5250 4341 1341 White 3
2 AM Thu 44 44 W 20 5033 3688 688 White 2
3 AM Thu 44 44 W 20 5033 3688 688 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com