Detailed Predictions for: Mt Tamalpais
Launch Altitude (f): 2040
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 55 55 NE 13 722 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NE 13 722 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 13 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NE 13 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 13 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 NE 13 943 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 NE 9 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 62 NE 9 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 62 64 NE 9 1932 2040 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 63 65 N 3 2031 2040 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 64 66 N 3 2130 2040 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 64 65 N 3 2031 2040 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 62 62 NE 5 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 59 59 NE 5 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 NE 5 943 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 NE 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NE 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NE 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 828 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NE 5 722 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NE 5 722 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 722 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 722 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 722 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SE 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 SE 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 SE 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 S 3 828 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 S 3 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 S 3 1288 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 W 7 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 W 7 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 1288 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 6 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 6 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 6 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 6 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 E 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 E 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 E 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 E 2 722 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 NE 18 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 60 NE 18 1288 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 62 NE 18 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 62 63 NE 18 1832 2040 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 62 63 NE 18 1832 2040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 62 62 NE 18 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 61 61 NE 8 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 8 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 NE 8 943 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 8 828 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 NE 8 828 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 8 828 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 16 828 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 16 828 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NE 16 722 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 16 722 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 16 722 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 16 722 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NE 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 E 8 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 59 E 8 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 61 E 8 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 62 E 8 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 61 62 E 8 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 61 61 E 8 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 60 NW 6 1288 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 828 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 722 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 722 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NW 7 722 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NW 7 722 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 722 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 722 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 8 722 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 8 722 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 8 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 8 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 E 8 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 E 8 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 E 7 943 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 59 E 7 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 61 E 7 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 61 E 7 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 61 62 E 7 1621 2040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 61 61 E 7 1407 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 S 7 1288 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 S 7 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 S 7 828 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 S 7 828 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 7 828 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 S 7 828 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 SE 10 722 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SE 10 722 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SE 10 722 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 10 722 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SE 10 722 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 722 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 S 14 722 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 S 14 722 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 S 14 722 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 S 14 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 S 14 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 S 14 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 56 S 18 828 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 58 S 18 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 59 S 18 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 60 S 18 1288 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 59 S 18 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 59 S 18 1173 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 S 17 1058 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 S 17 828 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 S 17 828 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 S 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 S 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 S 17 722 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 S 15 722 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 S 15 722 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 S 15 722 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 S 15 722 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 S 15 722 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 S 15 722 2040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com