Detailed Predictions for: Mt Tamalpais
Launch Altitude (f): 2040
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 57 S 2 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 58 S 2 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 59 S 2 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 59 SW 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 59 SW 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 59 SW 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 SW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 SW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 SW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 SW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 SW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 S 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 53 SW 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 54 SW 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 55 SW 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 54 SW 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 2 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 58 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 60 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 62 NW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 61 NW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 NW 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 60 NW 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 60 NW 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 NW 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 N 13 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 13 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 13 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 N 12 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 12 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 12 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 N 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 NW 6 1119 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 63 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 63 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 62 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 61 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NW 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NW 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 NE 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 NE 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 NE 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 63 NE 9 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 65 NE 9 1197 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 66 N 8 1274 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 66 N 8 1274 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 66 N 8 1274 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 65 NW 6 1197 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 64 NW 6 1119 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 NW 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 N 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 N 5 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 N 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 N 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 N 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 63 N 7 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 65 N 7 1197 2040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 66 NW 8 1274 2040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 65 NW 8 1197 2040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 65 NW 8 1197 2040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 63 W 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 W 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 W 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 W 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 W 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 W 10 1083 2040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com