Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 5 8 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 5 8 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 N 4 6 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 4 6 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 4 6 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 SW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 3 3 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 67 69 SW 3 3 7185 5521 571 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 68 72 SW 3 3 9191 7090 2140 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 70 76 SE 5 9 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 74 81 SE 5 9 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 74 81 SE 5 9 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 77 84 SE 11 17 15918 14664 9714 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 77 82 SE 11 17 15226 13358 8408 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 78 82 SE 11 17 15226 13358 8408 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 77 79 SSE 11 17 13558 11063 6113 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 76 77 SSE 11 17 12075 9411 4461 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 72 72 SSE 11 17 9191 7090 2140 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 69 69 SE 10 16 7185 5521 571 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 66 66 SE 10 16 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 65 65 SE 10 16 4710 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 SSE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 SE 4 4 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 67 69 SE 4 4 7185 5521 571 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 68 72 SE 4 4 9191 7090 2140 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 70 76 ESE 5 9 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 71 78 ESE 5 9 12842 10184 5234 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 73 81 ESE 5 9 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 76 83 ESE 12 19 15574 14028 9078 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 77 83 ESE 12 19 15574 14028 9078 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 77 81 ESE 12 19 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 76 78 SSE 6 10 12842 10184 5234 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 74 75 SSE 6 10 10329 9115 4165 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 72 72 SSE 6 10 9191 7090 2140 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 70 70 ESE 6 10 8256 5809 859 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 67 67 ESE 6 10 5819 4950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 66 66 ESE 6 10 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 64 64 SE 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SE 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 SE 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NNW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 NNW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 63 ENE 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 ENE 6 10 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 66 69 ENE 6 10 7185 5521 571 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 73 E 5 9 9304 8219 3269 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 70 76 E 5 9 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 71 78 E 5 9 12842 10184 5234 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 72 78 E 8 12 12842 10184 5234 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 72 77 E 8 12 12075 9411 4461 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 71 75 E 8 12 10329 9115 4165 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 70 72 E 8 12 9191 7090 2140 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 68 69 E 8 12 7185 5521 571 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 66 66 E 8 12 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 64 64 NNW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 NNW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 NNW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NNW 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 NNW 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 12 19 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 N 12 19 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 N 12 19 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 N 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 N 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 63 N 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 66 N 10 16 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 64 70 NNE 9 13 8256 5809 859 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 66 73 NNE 9 13 9304 8219 3269 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 68 76 NNE 9 13 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 69 76 NNE 9 13 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 71 76 NNE 9 13 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 71 75 NNE 9 13 10329 9115 4165 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 71 73 NNE 6 10 9304 8219 3269 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 69 70 NNE 6 10 8256 5809 859 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 67 67 NNE 6 10 5819 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 65 65 NNW 6 10 4710 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 NNW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 NNW 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 NNW 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 NNW 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NW 10 16 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 N 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 NE 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 67 NE 8 12 5819 4950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 67 71 NE 8 12 8646 6095 1145 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 69 75 NE 5 9 10329 9115 4165 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 71 78 NE 5 9 12842 10184 5234 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 73 81 NE 5 9 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 74 81 ESE 5 9 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 75 81 ESE 5 9 14873 12647 7697 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 75 79 ESE 5 9 13558 11063 6113 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 74 77 SW 5 9 12075 9411 4461 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 73 74 SW 5 9 9534 8578 3628 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 5 9 8646 6095 1145 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 6 10 6107 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 6 10 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 10 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 WSW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 WSW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 NW 8 12 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 WNW 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 60 NE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 64 NE 5 9 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 68 NE 5 9 6107 4950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 65 71 ENE 6 10 8646 6095 1145 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 66 74 ENE 6 10 9534 8578 3628 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 68 76 ENE 6 10 11244 9289 4339 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 70 77 SE 6 10 12075 9411 4461 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 71 77 SE 6 10 12075 9411 4461 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 71 75 SE 6 10 10329 9115 4165 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 70 72 SW 6 10 9191 7090 2140 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 69 70 SW 6 10 8256 5809 859 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 66 66 SW 6 10 5529 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 9 13 4488 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com