Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 E 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 69 E 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 76 E 3 5174 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 78 83 SW 5 8297 6856 1906 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 80 86 SW 5 9717 8243 3293 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 82 89 SW 5 11213 9646 4696 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 82 89 S 8 11213 9646 4696 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 83 89 S 8 11213 9646 4696 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 83 87 S 8 10171 8721 3771 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 81 84 S 8 8781 7252 2302 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 76 77 S 8 5840 4950 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 71 71 S 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 SE 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 SE 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SE 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 E 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 E 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 E 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 SE 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 SE 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 SE 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 SE 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 SE 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 SE 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 66 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 73 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 80 E 7 6871 5819 869 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 78 85 E 7 9254 7753 2803 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 79 86 E 7 9717 8243 3293 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 80 87 SE 7 10171 8721 3771 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 81 87 SE 7 10171 8721 3771 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 81 85 SE 7 9254 7753 2803 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 79 82 S 9 7801 6624 1674 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 75 76 S 9 5174 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 71 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 S 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 S 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 S 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 S 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 S 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 SE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 SE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 71 SE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 77 S 9 5840 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 74 80 S 9 6871 5819 869 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 75 82 S 9 7801 6624 1674 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 76 83 S 9 8297 6856 1906 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 77 83 S 9 8297 6856 1906 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 77 81 S 9 7292 6391 1441 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 75 78 S 12 6403 4950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 71 72 S 12 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 67 67 S 12 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 S 12 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 S 12 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 S 12 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 NE 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 76 S 7 5174 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 80 S 7 6871 5819 869 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 76 83 S 7 8297 6856 1906 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 77 84 S 7 8781 7252 2302 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 78 84 S 7 8781 7252 2302 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 78 82 S 7 7801 6624 1674 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 76 79 S 9 6638 5165 215 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 73 74 S 9 3741 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 9 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 E 6 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 78 E 6 6403 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 75 82 E 6 7801 6624 1674 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 77 84 E 6 8781 7252 2302 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 77 84 E 6 8781 7252 2302 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 78 84 E 6 8781 7252 2302 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 78 82 E 6 7801 6624 1674 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 76 79 S 8 6638 5165 215 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 73 74 S 8 3741 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 68 S 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 S 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 S 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 S 8 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 SW 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 SW 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SW 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 SW 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NE 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 NE 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 NE 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 70 NE 3 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 76 SE 5 5174 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 80 SE 5 6871 5819 869 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 75 82 SE 5 7801 6624 1674 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 76 83 SE 5 8297 6856 1906 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 77 83 SE 5 8297 6856 1906 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 77 81 SE 5 7292 6391 1441 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 75 78 SW 7 6403 4950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 72 73 SW 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 SW 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 7 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 3711 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com