Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 30 30 W 21 5776 4950 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 30 30 W 21 5776 4950 0 White 1
6 AM Sat 29 29 W 21 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 W 22 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 W 22 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 W 22 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 30 30 W 23 5776 4950 0 White 1
11 AM Sat 31 31 W 23 5997 4950 0 White 2
12 Noon Sat 32 32 W 23 6216 5047 97 White 3
1 PM Sat 32 32 W 21 6216 5047 97 White 3
2 PM Sat 32 32 W 21 6216 5047 97 White 3
3 PM Sat 31 31 W 21 5997 4950 0 White 2
4 PM Sat 30 30 W 15 5776 4950 0 White 1
5 PM Sat 29 29 W 15 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 W 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 W 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 W 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 25 25 W 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 25 25 W 10 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 25 25 W 10 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 25 W 10 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 W 7 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 W 7 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 W 7 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 NW 7 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 NW 7 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 NW 7 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 NW 8 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 NW 8 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 26 26 NW 8 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 28 28 N 8 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 29 30 N 8 5776 4950 0 White 1
12 Noon Sun 30 31 N 8 5997 4950 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 31 32 N 8 6216 5047 97 White 3
2 PM Sun 31 32 N 8 6216 5047 97 White 3
3 PM Sun 31 31 N 8 5997 4950 0 White 2
4 PM Sun 30 30 W 14 5776 4950 0 White 1
5 PM Sun 29 29 W 14 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 28 28 W 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 27 27 W 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 W 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 W 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 N 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 N 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 N 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 N 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 N 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 N 15 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 N 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 N 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 N 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 N 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 N 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 28 29 N 16 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 31 33 N 14 6435 5934 984 White 4
11 AM Mon 33 35 N 14 6868 6868 1918 White 6
12 Noon Mon 35 38 N 14 7517 7517 2567 White 9
1 PM Mon 36 39 N 14 7732 7732 2782 White 10
2 PM Mon 36 38 N 14 7517 7517 2567 White 9
3 PM Mon 35 36 N 14 7085 7085 2135 White 7
4 PM Mon 34 34 NW 14 6652 6556 1606 White 5
5 PM Mon 32 32 NW 14 6216 5047 97 White 3
6 PM Mon 30 30 NW 14 5776 4950 0 White 1
7 PM Mon 28 28 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 27 27 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 26 26 W 13 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 W 13 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 W 13 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 26 26 W 13 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 W 13 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 W 13 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 NW 12 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 NW 12 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 NW 12 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 25 25 NW 12 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 NW 12 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 29 NW 12 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 32 NW 12 6216 5047 97 White 3
11 AM Tue 33 35 NW 12 6868 6868 1918 White 6
12 Noon Tue 34 37 NW 12 7301 7301 2351 White 8
1 PM Tue 35 38 NW 12 7517 7517 2567 White 9
2 PM Tue 36 38 NW 12 7517 7517 2567 White 9
3 PM Tue 36 37 NW 12 7301 7301 2351 White 8
4 PM Tue 35 35 NW 12 6868 6868 1918 White 6
5 PM Tue 34 34 NW 12 6652 6556 1606 White 5
6 PM Tue 32 32 NW 12 6216 5047 97 White 3
7 PM Tue 30 30 NW 12 5776 4950 0 White 1
8 PM Tue 30 30 NW 12 5776 4950 0 White 1
9 PM Tue 30 30 NW 12 5776 4950 0 White 1
10 PM Tue 30 30 W 9 5776 4950 0 White 1
11 PM Tue 30 30 W 9 5776 4950 0 White 1
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 W 9 5776 4950 0 White 1
1 AM Wed 29 29 W 9 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 W 9 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 W 9 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NW 9 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 NW 9 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 NW 9 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 NW 9 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 NW 9 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 30 NW 9 5776 4950 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 32 33 W 13 6435 5934 984 White 4
11 AM Wed 33 34 W 13 6652 6556 1606 White 5
12 Noon Wed 34 35 W 13 6868 6868 1918 White 6
1 PM Wed 35 36 W 13 7085 7085 2135 White 7
2 PM Wed 35 36 W 13 7085 7085 2135 White 7
3 PM Wed 34 34 W 13 6652 6556 1606 White 5
4 PM Wed 33 33 W 16 6435 5934 984 White 4
5 PM Wed 32 32 W 16 6216 5047 97 White 3
6 PM Wed 30 30 W 16 5776 4950 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 28 28 W 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 27 27 W 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 27 W 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 NW 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 NW 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NW 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 NW 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NW 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 NW 16 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 27 NW 14 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 28 29 N 25 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 29 30 N 25 5776 4950 0 White 1
12 Noon Thu 29 31 N 25 5997 4950 0 White 2
1 PM Thu 30 32 N 25 6216 5047 97 White 3
2 PM Thu 30 31 N 25 5997 4950 0 White 2
3 PM Thu 30 31 N 25 5997 4950 0 White 2
4 PM Thu 30 30 N 25 5776 4950 0 White 1
5 PM Thu 29 29 N 25 5058 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 27 27 N 25 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 26 26 N 25 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 N 25 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 N 25 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 N 21 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 N 21 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 N 21 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 N 21 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 N 21 4265 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 N 21 4265 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com