Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 61 61 E 7 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 E 7 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 E 7 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 NE 7 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 NE 7 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 74 NE 7 5441 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 72 76 N 7 7985 5099 149 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 73 78 N 7 9345 5766 816 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 73 79 N 7 9962 7872 2922 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 74 80 S 12 10531 8621 3671 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 74 79 S 12 9962 7872 2922 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 74 78 S 12 9345 5766 816 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 74 76 S 9 7985 5099 149 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 73 74 S 9 5441 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 71 71 S 9 4627 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 E 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 E 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 E 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 68 N 6 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 73 N 6 5103 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 73 77 N 6 8701 5434 484 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 76 80 N 7 10531 8621 3671 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 77 82 N 7 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 77 83 N 7 12742 10435 5485 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 77 82 NE 7 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 77 82 NE 7 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 76 79 NE 7 9962 7872 2922 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 76 78 W 9 9345 5766 816 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 75 76 W 9 7985 5099 149 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 9 5441 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 4822 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 NE 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 NE 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 NE 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 NE 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 NE 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 NE 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 71 N 10 4627 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 77 N 10 8701 5434 484 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 77 82 N 10 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 80 86 N 10 13546 12654 7704 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 81 89 N 10 14204 13510 8560 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 82 90 N 10 14765 13637 8687 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 82 90 N 10 14765 13637 8687 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 83 90 N 10 14765 13637 8687 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 83 88 N 10 13802 13382 8432 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 83 86 N 10 13546 12654 7704 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 82 83 N 10 12742 10435 5485 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 80 80 N 10 10531 8621 3671 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 77 77 N 10 8701 5434 484 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 75 75 N 10 5777 4950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 72 72 N 10 4822 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 N 10 4627 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 N 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 NE 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 NE 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 NE 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 71 NE 12 4627 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 77 NE 12 8701 5434 484 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 79 84 NE 12 13291 11411 6461 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 82 88 N 12 13802 13382 8432 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 83 91 N 12 15305 13764 8814 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 83 91 N 12 15305 13764 8814 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 83 91 N 12 15305 13764 8814 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 83 90 N 12 14765 13637 8687 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 84 89 N 12 14204 13510 8560 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 84 87 W 14 13674 13255 8305 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 14 12742 10435 5485 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 80 80 W 14 10531 8621 3671 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 14 8701 5434 484 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 14 5441 4950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 14 4822 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 NW 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 NW 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 NW 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 NW 9 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 76 NW 9 7985 5099 149 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 76 81 NW 9 11853 9255 4305 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 79 86 SE 8 13546 12654 7704 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 80 88 SE 8 13802 13382 8432 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 80 89 SE 8 14204 13510 8560 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 81 89 SE 8 14204 13510 8560 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 81 88 SE 8 13802 13382 8432 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 82 87 SE 8 13674 13255 8305 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 82 85 SW 12 13418 12332 7382 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 80 82 SW 12 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 78 78 SW 12 9345 5766 816 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 75 75 SW 12 5777 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 72 72 SW 12 4822 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 SW 12 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 NW 10 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 73 NW 10 5103 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 73 78 NW 10 9345 5766 816 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 75 82 NW 12 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 76 84 NW 12 13291 11411 6461 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 76 85 NW 12 13418 12332 7382 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 76 84 NW 12 13291 11411 6461 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 76 83 NW 12 12742 10435 5485 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 77 82 NW 12 12412 9864 4914 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 77 80 W 14 10531 8621 3671 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 75 76 W 14 7985 5099 149 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 14 5103 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 NW 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 NW 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NW 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NW 14 4623 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com