Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 13 4518 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 13 4518 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NE 13 4518 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 15 6202 4950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 50 51 NE 15 8077 6181 1231 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 53 55 NE 15 9885 8676 3726 White 8
11 AM Sat 56 59 N 17 10745 10577 5627 White 12
12 Noon Sat 59 63 N 17 11585 11585 6635 White 16
1 PM Sat 60 65 N 17 12001 12001 7051 White 18
2 PM Sat 61 66 N 16 12208 12208 7258 White 19
3 PM Sat 62 66 N 16 12208 12208 7258 White 19
4 PM Sat 62 64 N 16 11794 11794 6844 White 17
5 PM Sat 61 62 N 14 11376 11376 6426 White 15
6 PM Sat 58 58 N 14 10533 10212 5262 White 11
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 14 9885 8676 3726 White 8
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 10 8739 6787 1837 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 7317 5487 537 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 7317 5487 537 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 50 50 NE 13 7317 5487 537 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NE 13 6816 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 13 6816 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 10 6202 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 10 6202 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 49 49 NE 10 6816 4950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 12 6202 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 48 48 NE 12 6202 4950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 48 48 NE 12 6202 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 49 49 NE 13 6816 4950 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 52 53 NE 13 9248 7252 2302 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 56 58 NE 13 10533 10212 5262 White 11
11 AM Sun 60 63 NE 14 11585 11585 6635 White 16
12 Noon Sun 62 66 NE 14 12208 12208 7258 White 19
1 PM Sun 64 69 NE 14 12829 12829 7879 White 22
2 PM Sun 65 69 NE 10 12829 12829 7879 White 22
3 PM Sun 66 70 NE 10 13036 13036 8086 White 23
4 PM Sun 66 68 NE 10 12623 12623 7673 White 21
5 PM Sun 65 66 N 10 12208 12208 7258 White 19
6 PM Sun 63 63 N 10 11585 11585 6635 White 16
7 PM Sun 59 59 N 10 10745 10577 5627 White 12
8 PM Sun 57 57 N 10 10321 9823 4873 White 10
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 9885 8676 3726 White 8
10 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 9885 8676 3726 White 8
11 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 9885 8676 3726 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 10 9656 7997 3047 White 7
1 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 9656 7997 3047 White 7
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 9656 7997 3047 White 7
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 9656 7997 3047 White 7
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 9656 7997 3047 White 7
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 9656 7997 3047 White 7
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 9248 7252 2302 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 9248 7252 2302 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 9656 7997 3047 White 7
9 AM Mon 58 59 N 9 10745 10577 5627 White 12
10 AM Mon 63 65 N 9 12001 12001 7051 White 18
11 AM Mon 67 70 N 13 13036 13036 8086 White 23
12 Noon Mon 70 75 N 13 14062 14062 9112 White 28
1 PM Mon 71 76 N 13 14265 14265 9315 White 29
2 PM Mon 72 77 N 13 14469 14469 9519 White 30
3 PM Mon 73 77 N 13 14469 14469 9519 White 30
4 PM Mon 73 76 N 13 14265 14265 9315 White 29
5 PM Mon 72 73 N 10 13652 13652 8702 White 26
6 PM Mon 69 69 N 10 12829 12829 7879 White 22
7 PM Mon 66 66 N 10 12208 12208 7258 White 19
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 10 11585 11585 6635 White 16
9 PM Mon 61 61 N 10 11166 11166 6216 White 14
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 10 10956 10937 5987 White 13
11 PM Mon 59 59 N 13 10745 10577 5627 White 12
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 13 10745 10577 5627 White 12
1 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 10745 10577 5627 White 12
2 AM Tue 58 58 N 13 10533 10212 5262 White 11
3 AM Tue 58 58 N 13 10533 10212 5262 White 11
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 13 10533 10212 5262 White 11
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 13 10533 10212 5262 White 11
6 AM Tue 57 57 N 13 10321 9823 4873 White 10
7 AM Tue 57 57 N 13 10321 9823 4873 White 10
8 AM Tue 58 58 N 13 10533 10212 5262 White 11
9 AM Tue 61 62 N 13 11376 11376 6426 White 15
10 AM Tue 65 67 N 13 12416 12416 7466 White 20
11 AM Tue 69 73 N 12 13652 13652 8702 White 26
12 Noon Tue 71 76 N 12 14265 14265 9315 White 29
1 PM Tue 73 78 N 12 14671 14671 9721 White 31
2 PM Tue 73 78 N 12 14671 14671 9721 White 31
3 PM Tue 74 78 N 12 14671 14671 9721 White 31
4 PM Tue 74 77 N 12 14469 14469 9519 White 30
5 PM Tue 73 74 N 7 13857 13857 8907 White 27
6 PM Tue 70 70 N 7 13036 13036 8086 White 23
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 12416 12416 7466 White 20
8 PM Tue 64 64 N 7 11794 11794 6844 White 17
9 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 11376 11376 6426 White 15
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 11376 11376 6426 White 15
11 PM Tue 62 62 E 9 11376 11376 6426 White 15
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 E 9 11166 11166 6216 White 14
1 AM Wed 61 61 E 9 11166 11166 6216 White 14
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 9 10956 10937 5987 White 13
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 9 10956 10937 5987 White 13
4 AM Wed 60 60 E 9 10956 10937 5987 White 13
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 10745 10577 5627 White 12
6 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 10745 10577 5627 White 12
7 AM Wed 58 58 NE 8 10533 10212 5262 White 11
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 10745 10577 5627 White 12
9 AM Wed 62 63 NE 8 11585 11585 6635 White 16
10 AM Wed 67 69 NE 8 12829 12829 7879 White 22
11 AM Wed 71 74 NE 8 13857 13857 8907 White 27
12 Noon Wed 74 78 NE 8 14671 14671 9721 White 31
1 PM Wed 75 79 NE 8 14874 14874 9924 White 32
2 PM Wed 76 80 NE 8 15077 15077 10127 White 33
3 PM Wed 76 79 NE 8 14874 14874 9924 White 32
4 PM Wed 76 78 NE 8 14671 14671 9721 White 31
5 PM Wed 74 75 S 5 14062 14062 9112 White 28
6 PM Wed 71 71 S 5 13243 13196 8246 White 24
7 PM Wed 67 67 S 5 12416 12416 7466 White 20
8 PM Wed 63 63 S 5 11585 11585 6635 White 16
9 PM Wed 62 62 S 5 11376 11376 6426 White 15
10 PM Wed 61 61 S 5 11166 11166 6216 White 14
11 PM Wed 61 61 S 6 11166 11166 6216 White 14
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 S 6 10956 10937 5987 White 13
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 6 10956 10937 5987 White 13
2 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 10745 10577 5627 White 12
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 10745 10577 5627 White 12
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 10745 10577 5627 White 12
5 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 10745 10577 5627 White 12
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 10533 10212 5262 White 11
7 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 10533 10212 5262 White 11
8 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 10745 10577 5627 White 12
9 AM Thu 62 62 E 3 11376 11376 6426 White 15
10 AM Thu 66 68 E 3 12623 12623 7673 White 21
11 AM Thu 70 73 E 6 13652 13652 8702 White 26
12 Noon Thu 73 77 E 6 14469 14469 9519 White 30
1 PM Thu 75 79 E 6 14874 14874 9924 White 32
2 PM Thu 76 80 E 6 15077 15077 10127 White 33
3 PM Thu 76 79 E 6 14874 14874 9924 White 32
4 PM Thu 76 78 E 6 14671 14671 9721 White 31
5 PM Thu 74 75 S 7 14062 14062 9112 White 28
6 PM Thu 70 70 S 7 13036 13036 8086 White 23
7 PM Thu 66 66 S 7 12208 12208 7258 White 19
8 PM Thu 63 63 S 7 11585 11585 6635 White 16
9 PM Thu 62 62 S 7 11376 11376 6426 White 15
10 PM Thu 61 61 S 7 11166 11166 6216 White 14
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 6 11166 11166 6216 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 6 11166 11166 6216 White 14
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 10956 10937 5987 White 13
2 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 10956 10937 5987 White 13
3 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 10956 10937 5987 White 13
4 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 10956 10937 5987 White 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com