Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 N 8 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 54 NE 9 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 58 NE 9 4622 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 63 NE 9 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 64 68 NE 9 9034 7735 2785 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 67 70 NE 9 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 69 70 NE 9 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 70 70 NE 7 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 69 69 NE 7 9286 8497 3547 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 67 67 NE 7 8781 6757 1807 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 65 65 NE 9 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 62 62 NE 9 5418 4950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 59 59 NE 9 4720 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 E 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 E 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 NE 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 56 NE 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 61 NE 6 5147 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 61 64 NE 6 6826 5143 193 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 64 67 NE 6 8781 6757 1807 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 65 66 NE 6 8527 5679 729 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 64 E 5 6826 5143 193 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 63 63 E 5 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 60 60 E 5 4894 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 58 58 E 5 4622 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 E 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 NE 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 W 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 53 NW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 58 NW 3 4622 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 63 NW 3 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 62 65 NW 3 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 64 67 NW 3 8781 6757 1807 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 65 66 NW 3 8527 5679 729 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 65 65 S 5 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 64 64 S 5 6826 5143 193 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 63 63 S 5 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 61 61 S 5 5147 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 58 58 S 5 4622 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 S 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 51 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 59 N 6 4720 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 62 N 6 5418 4950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 61 65 N 6 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 64 68 N 6 9034 7735 2785 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 67 70 N 6 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 69 70 N 6 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 9786 8749 3799 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 69 69 N 5 9286 8497 3547 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 67 67 N 5 8781 6757 1807 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 65 65 N 5 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 62 62 N 5 5418 4950 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 59 59 N 7 4720 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 N 7 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 57 NE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 61 NE 5 5147 4950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 61 65 NE 5 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 64 67 NE 5 8781 6757 1807 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 66 69 NE 5 9286 8497 3547 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 68 69 NE 5 9286 8497 3547 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 68 68 S 2 9034 7735 2785 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 67 67 S 2 8781 6757 1807 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 65 65 S 2 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 63 63 S 2 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 60 60 S 2 4894 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 57 57 S 2 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 SE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 SE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 SE 5 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 E 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 S 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 58 S 3 4622 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 61 S 3 5147 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 60 63 S 3 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 62 65 S 3 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 64 65 S 3 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 65 65 SW 3 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 65 65 SW 3 7827 5412 462 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 63 63 SW 3 5687 4950 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 61 61 SW 3 5147 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 3 4720 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 4544 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com