Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 36 36 NW 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 NW 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NW 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 NW 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NW 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NW 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 NW 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 44 NW 10 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 45 NW 10 5030 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 43 44 NW 9 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 43 44 NW 9 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 43 NW 9 4463 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 NW 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 NW 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 NW 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 N 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 N 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 N 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 N 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 N 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 N 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 N 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 N 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 N 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 N 15 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 N 15 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 N 15 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 N 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 N 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 N 14 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 42 N 13 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 43 44 N 13 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 47 N 13 5464 4950 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 46 47 NE 12 5464 4950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 46 47 NE 12 5464 4950 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 45 45 NE 12 5030 4950 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 44 44 N 10 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NE 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 NE 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NE 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 N 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 N 12 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 9 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 NE 9 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 NE 9 5030 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 47 48 NE 8 5628 5029 79 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 49 51 NE 8 5994 5624 674 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NE 8 6118 5745 795 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 50 52 NE 5 6118 5745 795 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 49 50 NE 5 5870 5459 509 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 5628 5029 79 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 46 46 NE 5 5235 4950 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 44 44 NE 5 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 NE 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 NE 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 NE 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 NE 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 NE 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 NE 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NE 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 N 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 N 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 NW 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 NW 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 NW 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 NW 6 4463 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 N 3 5464 4950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 49 50 N 3 5870 5459 509 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 51 53 N 3 6241 5866 916 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 51 52 NE 3 6118 5745 795 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 51 52 NE 3 6118 5745 795 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 49 49 NE 3 5749 5231 281 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 47 47 NE 5 5464 4950 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 45 45 NE 5 5030 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 43 43 NE 5 4463 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 W 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 W 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 W 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 W 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 4463 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 5235 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 48 49 N 3 5749 5231 281 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 49 50 N 3 5870 5459 509 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 49 50 N 3 5870 5459 509 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 48 49 N 3 5749 5231 281 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 5235 4950 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 44 44 N 5 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 N 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NW 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 N 6 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 44 N 6 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 45 N 6 5030 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 45 46 N 5 5235 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 45 45 N 5 5030 4950 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 44 44 N 5 4879 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 42 42 NW 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 NW 5 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 NW 7 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 N 8 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 N 8 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 N 8 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 4259 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 4259 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com