Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 44 44 W 12 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 W 12 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 12 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 W 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 W 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 47 W 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 51 SW 6 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 51 54 SW 6 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 51 54 SW 6 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 53 56 S 6 7410 6255 1305 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 53 55 S 6 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 53 54 S 6 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 7 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 49 49 W 7 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 W 7 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 W 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 W 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 W 13 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 13 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 13 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 W 13 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 W 13 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 51 51 W 13 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 53 54 W 12 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 55 56 W 12 7410 6255 1305 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 56 57 W 12 7665 6720 1770 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 57 58 W 10 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 58 59 W 10 8172 7387 2437 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 10 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 57 57 NW 10 7665 6720 1770 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 54 54 NW 10 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 10 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 NW 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NW 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NW 10 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NW 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NW 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NW 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NW 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NW 8 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 49 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 52 W 10 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 52 54 W 10 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 53 55 W 10 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 54 56 W 10 7410 6255 1305 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 55 56 W 10 7410 6255 1305 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 55 56 W 10 7410 6255 1305 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 54 54 NW 9 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 9 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 9 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NW 9 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 12 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NW 12 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 12 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NW 12 4547 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 4749 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 10 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 53 53 N 10 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 57 58 N 10 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 60 62 N 12 8900 8144 3194 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 62 65 N 12 10172 8870 3920 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 63 67 N 12 11517 9513 4563 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 64 67 N 12 11517 9513 4563 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 65 67 N 12 11517 9513 4563 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 65 66 N 12 10863 9147 4197 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 63 63 NW 9 9201 8394 3444 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 61 61 NW 9 8675 7893 2943 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 58 58 NW 9 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 55 55 NW 9 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 54 54 NW 9 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 54 54 NW 9 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 54 54 NW 10 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 10 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 53 53 NW 10 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 52 52 NW 10 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 51 51 NW 10 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 51 51 NW 10 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 9 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 51 51 NW 9 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 53 53 NW 9 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 55 55 NW 9 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 58 58 NW 9 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 61 62 NW 9 8900 8144 3194 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 64 66 NW 9 10863 9147 4197 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 66 69 NW 9 12557 10728 5778 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 67 71 NW 9 13151 11991 7041 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 68 71 NW 9 13151 11991 7041 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 68 70 NW 9 12839 11375 6425 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 68 69 NW 9 12557 10728 5778 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 66 66 NW 9 10863 9147 4197 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 63 63 NW 9 9201 8394 3444 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 8172 7387 2437 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 9 7665 6720 1770 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 55 55 NW 9 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 9 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 13 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NW 13 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 53 53 NW 13 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 13 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 13 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 51 51 NW 13 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 51 51 NW 14 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 51 51 NW 14 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 14 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 53 53 NW 14 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 55 55 NW 14 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 57 58 NW 14 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 60 62 N 15 8900 8144 3194 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 62 65 N 15 10172 8870 3920 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 63 66 N 15 10863 9147 4197 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 64 67 N 15 11517 9513 4563 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 65 67 N 15 11517 9513 4563 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 65 66 N 15 10863 9147 4197 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 63 63 N 17 9201 8394 3444 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 17 8675 7893 2943 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 58 58 N 17 7919 7133 2183 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 17 7410 6255 1305 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 55 55 N 17 7153 5778 828 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 54 54 N 17 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 15 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 15 6750 5286 336 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 53 53 N 15 6278 4950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 15 5795 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 15 5295 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 50 50 N 15 4749 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com