Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SE 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 SE 8 4492 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 62 SE 8 5734 5103 153 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 61 65 SE 7 7187 5727 777 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 63 68 SE 7 8977 7173 2223 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 63 68 SE 7 8977 7173 2223 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 63 68 SE 10 8977 7173 2223 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 63 67 SE 10 8514 6734 1784 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 62 65 SE 10 7187 5727 777 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 61 63 S 7 5943 5311 361 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 58 58 S 7 4896 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 S 7 4047 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 S 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 S 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 S 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 S 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 S 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 S 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 S 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 S 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 S 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 SW 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 46 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 50 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 51 SW 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 53 SW 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 53 SW 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 53 S 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 51 S 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 50 S 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 48 SW 10 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 SW 10 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 SW 10 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SW 10 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 SW 10 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 SW 10 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 45 NW 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 S 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 50 S 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 51 S 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 51 S 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 51 S 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 50 S 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 49 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 W 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 W 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 W 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 W 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 W 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 W 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 W 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 W 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 W 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 50 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 52 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 53 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 54 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 53 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 52 SW 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 51 W 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 W 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 8 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NE 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NE 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 N 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 N 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 N 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 N 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 52 N 5 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 57 N 3 4492 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 59 N 3 5105 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 55 60 N 3 5315 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 56 61 N 3 5525 4950 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 57 61 N 3 5525 4950 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 57 60 N 3 5315 4950 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 56 57 SW 3 4492 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 SW 3 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 NE 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NE 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 NE 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NE 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NE 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 13 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 13 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 13 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 N 13 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 52 N 13 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 57 N 13 4492 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 62 N 10 5734 5103 153 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 59 65 N 10 7187 5727 777 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 60 66 N 10 7577 5935 985 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 61 67 N 10 8514 6734 1784 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 62 67 N 10 8514 6734 1784 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 63 66 N 10 7577 5935 985 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 62 64 N 7 6751 5520 570 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 5315 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 56 56 N 7 4047 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 N 9 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 N 9 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 3166 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 3166 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com