Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 65 65 NE 5 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 NE 5 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 E 5 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 E 5 6158 5358 408 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 75 78 E 5 7423 6142 1192 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 76 81 E 8 7908 7412 2462 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 77 83 E 8 8511 7695 2745 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 79 86 E 8 8847 8498 3548 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 82 89 SE 9 9471 8832 3882 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 83 89 SE 9 9471 8832 3882 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 83 87 SE 9 8959 8609 3659 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 82 84 SW 8 8623 7870 2920 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 81 82 SW 8 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 77 77 SW 8 7281 5833 883 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 7 5602 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 72 72 SW 7 5362 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 SW 7 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 S 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 S 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 S 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 S 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 SW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 SW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 SW 5 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 SW 5 6158 5358 408 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 75 78 SW 5 7423 6142 1192 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 76 81 SW 5 7908 7412 2462 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 78 84 SW 5 8623 7870 2920 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 80 87 SW 5 8959 8609 3659 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 81 88 S 9 9180 8721 3771 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 82 88 S 9 9180 8721 3771 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 83 87 S 9 8959 8609 3659 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 82 84 S 10 8623 7870 2920 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 79 80 S 10 7708 7270 2320 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 75 75 S 10 6158 5358 408 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 72 72 S 7 5362 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 S 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 S 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 SE 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 SE 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 SE 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 NE 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NE 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 SE 2 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 SE 2 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 SE 2 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 SE 2 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 SE 2 6158 5358 408 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 76 79 SE 2 7566 7128 2178 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 78 83 S 5 8511 7695 2745 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 80 86 S 5 8847 8498 3548 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 82 89 S 5 9471 8832 3882 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 83 90 S 5 9844 8944 3994 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 84 90 S 5 9844 8944 3994 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 85 89 S 5 9471 8832 3882 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 84 86 SW 6 8847 8498 3548 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 81 82 SW 6 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 78 78 SW 6 7423 6142 1192 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 74 74 SW 6 5841 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 6 5362 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 NW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 NW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 NW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 NW 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 N 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 N 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 N 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 N 6 5841 4950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 75 78 N 6 7423 6142 1192 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 78 82 W 7 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 81 87 W 7 8959 8609 3659 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 83 89 W 7 9471 8832 3882 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 85 91 W 7 10451 9139 4189 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 86 91 W 7 10451 9139 4189 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 86 90 W 7 9844 8944 3994 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 85 87 SW 8 8959 8609 3659 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 81 82 SW 8 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 77 77 SW 8 7281 5833 883 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 74 74 SW 8 5841 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 71 71 SW 8 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 8 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 5 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 W 5 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 W 5 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 W 5 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 W 5 5602 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 74 77 W 5 7281 5833 883 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 76 81 S 8 7908 7412 2462 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 77 83 S 8 8511 7695 2745 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 79 86 S 8 8847 8498 3548 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 81 87 S 8 8959 8609 3659 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 82 88 S 8 9180 8721 3771 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 82 86 S 8 8847 8498 3548 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 81 83 SW 9 8511 7695 2745 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 78 79 SW 9 7566 7128 2178 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 9 5841 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 9 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 9 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 9 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 W 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 7 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 W 6 4712 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 W 6 5841 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 77 S 8 7281 5833 883 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 74 80 S 8 7708 7270 2320 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 75 82 S 8 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 76 82 S 8 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 77 83 S 8 8511 7695 2745 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 78 82 S 8 8296 7553 2603 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 77 79 SW 9 7566 7128 2178 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 75 76 SW 9 7138 5596 646 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 9 5362 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 9 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 SW 9 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 6 4429 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com