Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 23 23 N 20 3921 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 22 22 N 20 3921 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 N 20 3921 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 N 22 3921 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 N 22 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 30 31 N 22 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 34 36 N 18 10154 8710 3760 White 10
11 AM Fri 36 39 N 18 10781 10759 5809 White 13
12 Noon Fri 38 42 N 18 11403 11403 6453 White 16
1 PM Fri 39 43 N 13 11611 11611 6661 White 17
2 PM Fri 39 42 N 13 11403 11403 6453 White 16
3 PM Fri 39 41 N 13 11197 11197 6247 White 15
4 PM Fri 37 37 NW 7 10363 8999 4049 White 11
5 PM Fri 36 36 NW 7 10154 8710 3760 White 10
6 PM Fri 33 33 NW 7 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 32 32 N 7 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 31 31 N 7 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 31 31 N 7 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 31 31 NW 6 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 31 31 NW 6 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 NW 6 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 30 30 NW 10 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 30 30 NW 10 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 31 31 NW 10 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 30 30 NW 16 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 30 30 NW 16 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 29 29 NW 16 7885 5773 823 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 29 29 NW 15 7885 5773 823 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 31 31 NW 15 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 34 34 NW 15 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 36 37 NW 16 10363 8999 4049 White 11
11 AM Sat 38 39 NW 16 10781 10759 5809 White 13
12 Noon Sat 39 40 NW 16 10989 10989 6039 White 14
1 PM Sat 40 41 W 18 11197 11197 6247 White 15
2 PM Sat 40 41 W 18 11197 11197 6247 White 15
3 PM Sat 39 40 W 18 10989 10989 6039 White 14
4 PM Sat 38 38 NW 17 10572 9929 4979 White 12
5 PM Sat 36 36 NW 17 10154 8710 3760 White 10
6 PM Sat 33 33 NW 17 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 31 31 NW 17 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 30 30 NW 17 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 30 30 NW 17 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 30 30 N 8 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 30 30 N 8 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 N 8 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 30 30 N 8 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 30 30 N 8 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 31 31 N 8 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 31 31 NW 12 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 30 30 NW 12 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 12 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 31 31 NW 12 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 33 33 NW 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 36 37 NW 12 10363 8999 4049 White 11
10 AM Sun 39 41 W 10 11197 11197 6247 White 15
11 AM Sun 41 44 W 10 11815 11815 6865 White 18
12 Noon Sun 42 45 W 10 12019 12019 7069 White 19
1 PM Sun 43 46 W 10 12224 12224 7274 White 20
2 PM Sun 43 45 W 10 12019 12019 7069 White 19
3 PM Sun 42 43 W 10 11611 11611 6661 White 17
4 PM Sun 41 41 W 13 11197 11197 6247 White 15
5 PM Sun 39 39 W 13 10781 10759 5809 White 13
6 PM Sun 36 36 W 13 10154 8710 3760 White 10
7 PM Sun 34 34 W 13 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 33 33 W 13 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 33 33 W 13 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 33 33 W 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 W 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 33 33 W 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 33 33 W 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 33 33 W 12 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 32 33 NW 21 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 33 34 NW 21 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 34 35 NW 21 9945 8419 3469 White 9
1 PM Mon 34 35 NW 21 9945 8419 3469 White 9
2 PM Mon 34 35 NW 21 9945 8419 3469 White 9
3 PM Mon 34 34 NW 21 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 33 33 N 26 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 31 31 N 26 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 30 30 N 26 8158 7133 2183 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 29 29 N 26 7885 5773 823 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 28 28 N 26 7420 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 28 28 N 26 7420 4950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 28 28 N 14 7420 4950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 28 28 N 14 7420 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 N 14 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 27 27 N 14 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 27 27 N 14 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 27 27 N 14 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 27 27 N 21 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 21 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 27 27 N 21 7155 4950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 28 28 N 21 7420 4950 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 31 31 N 21 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 35 36 N 21 10154 8710 3760 White 10
10 AM Tue 38 39 N 15 10781 10759 5809 White 13
11 AM Tue 40 42 N 15 11403 11403 6453 White 16
12 Noon Tue 41 44 N 15 11815 11815 6865 White 18
1 PM Tue 42 44 N 15 11815 11815 6865 White 18
2 PM Tue 43 45 N 15 12019 12019 7069 White 19
3 PM Tue 43 44 N 15 11815 11815 6865 White 18
4 PM Tue 42 42 NW 9 11403 11403 6453 White 16
5 PM Tue 40 40 NW 9 10989 10989 6039 White 14
6 PM Tue 37 37 NW 9 10363 8999 4049 White 11
7 PM Tue 34 34 NW 9 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 33 33 NW 9 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 33 33 NW 9 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 34 34 NW 9 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 33 33 NW 9 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 NW 9 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 33 33 NW 9 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 32 32 NW 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 32 32 NW 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 32 32 NW 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 31 31 NW 9 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 31 31 NW 9 8278 7396 2446 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 32 32 NW 9 8457 7832 2882 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 33 33 NW 9 8751 8144 3194 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 35 35 NW 9 9945 8419 3469 White 9
10 AM Wed 37 38 W 7 10572 9929 4979 White 12
11 AM Wed 38 39 W 7 10781 10759 5809 White 13
12 Noon Wed 39 41 W 7 11197 11197 6247 White 15
1 PM Wed 40 42 W 7 11403 11403 6453 White 16
2 PM Wed 40 41 W 7 11197 11197 6247 White 15
3 PM Wed 40 41 W 7 11197 11197 6247 White 15
4 PM Wed 39 39 W 8 10781 10759 5809 White 13
5 PM Wed 38 38 W 8 10572 9929 4979 White 12
6 PM Wed 36 36 W 8 10154 8710 3760 White 10
7 PM Wed 35 35 W 8 9945 8419 3469 White 9
8 PM Wed 35 35 W 8 9945 8419 3469 White 9
9 PM Wed 35 35 W 8 9945 8419 3469 White 9
10 PM Wed 35 35 W 9 9945 8419 3469 White 9
11 PM Wed 35 35 W 9 9945 8419 3469 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 W 9 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 9052 8263 3313 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com