Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 N 5 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 68 71 N 5 9192 8560 3610 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 71 75 N 5 9587 9276 4326 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 74 80 NE 6 10750 9769 4819 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 76 83 NE 6 11588 10671 5721 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 77 84 NE 6 12028 11006 6056 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 78 85 E 6 12541 11269 6319 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 78 84 E 6 12028 11006 6056 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 77 82 E 6 11325 10266 5316 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 76 79 S 5 10336 9670 4720 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 73 74 S 5 9488 9178 4228 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 70 70 S 5 9029 7959 3009 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 8 7282 5676 726 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 8 6146 4950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 S 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 S 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 S 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 3 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SE 3 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 SE 3 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 E 2 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 68 71 E 2 9192 8560 3610 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 72 76 E 2 9686 9375 4425 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 75 81 SE 7 11060 9915 4965 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 77 84 SE 7 12028 11006 6056 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 79 87 SE 7 13524 11906 6956 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 80 88 SE 8 14104 12413 7463 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 80 87 SE 8 13524 11906 6956 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 80 85 SE 8 12541 11269 6319 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 79 82 W 9 11325 10266 5316 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 76 78 W 9 9975 9572 4622 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 9389 9004 4054 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 8851 7264 2314 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 7282 5676 726 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 6146 4950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 62 62 S 5 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 5 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 NE 5 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 70 73 NE 5 9389 9004 4054 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 74 79 NE 5 10336 9670 4720 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 77 84 E 3 12028 11006 6056 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 80 88 E 3 14104 12413 7463 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 81 90 E 3 14841 13387 8437 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 82 90 E 3 14841 13387 8437 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 83 90 E 3 14841 13387 8437 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 83 88 E 3 14104 12413 7463 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 82 85 SW 3 12541 11269 6319 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 79 81 SW 3 11060 9915 4965 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 3 9488 9178 4228 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 3 9029 7959 3009 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 3 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 3 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 5 6146 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 5 5701 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 63 63 SW 5 5701 4950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 63 63 SW 5 5701 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 62 62 SW 5 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 SW 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 N 8 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 N 8 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 N 8 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 68 69 N 8 8851 7264 2314 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 72 75 N 8 9587 9276 4326 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 76 81 N 8 11060 9915 4965 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 80 87 NW 7 13524 11906 6956 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 82 90 NW 7 14841 13387 8437 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 84 93 NW 7 15581 14720 9770 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 85 93 NW 7 15581 14720 9770 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 86 93 NW 7 15581 14720 9770 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 86 91 NW 7 15092 13988 9038 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 85 88 NW 8 14104 12413 7463 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 82 84 NW 8 12028 11006 6056 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 79 79 NW 8 10336 9670 4720 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 75 75 NW 8 9587 9276 4326 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 72 72 NW 8 9291 8827 3877 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 70 70 NW 8 9029 7959 3009 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 68 68 NW 12 8624 7045 2095 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NW 12 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 67 67 NW 12 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 67 67 NW 12 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 66 66 NW 12 7282 5676 726 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 64 64 NW 12 6146 4950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 64 64 N 14 6146 4950 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 65 65 N 14 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 66 66 N 14 7282 5676 726 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 69 70 N 14 9029 7959 3009 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 74 77 N 14 9785 9473 4523 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 78 83 N 14 11588 10671 5721 Blue 21
11 AM Sat 82 89 N 21 14475 12907 7957 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 85 93 N 21 15581 14720 9770 Blue 31
1 PM Sat 87 96 N 21 16171 15493 10543 Blue 34
2 PM Sat 88 96 N 21 16171 15493 10543 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 89 96 N 21 16171 15493 10543 Blue 34
4 PM Sat 89 94 N 21 15824 15007 10057 Blue 32
5 PM Sat 88 91 N 20 15092 13988 9038 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 84 86 N 20 13039 11530 6580 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 80 80 N 20 10750 9769 4819 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 76 76 N 20 9686 9375 4425 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 73 73 N 20 9389 9004 4054 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 71 71 N 20 9192 8560 3610 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 70 70 N 17 9029 7959 3009 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 N 17 8851 7264 2314 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 68 68 N 17 8624 7045 2095 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 67 67 N 17 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 66 66 N 17 7282 5676 726 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 65 65 N 17 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 65 65 N 14 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 66 66 N 14 7282 5676 726 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 68 68 N 14 8624 7045 2095 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 71 72 N 14 9291 8827 3877 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 74 77 N 14 9785 9473 4523 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 77 82 N 14 11325 10266 5316 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 80 87 NE 6 13524 11906 6956 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 83 91 NE 6 15092 13988 9038 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 84 93 NE 6 15581 14720 9770 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 86 94 NE 6 15824 15007 10057 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 86 93 NE 6 15581 14720 9770 Blue 31
4 PM Sun 85 90 NE 6 14841 13387 8437 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 84 87 SW 6 13524 11906 6956 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 81 83 SW 6 11588 10671 5721 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 78 78 SW 6 9975 9572 4622 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 75 75 SW 6 9587 9276 4326 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 6 9291 8827 3877 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 71 71 SW 6 9192 8560 3610 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 8851 7264 2314 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 W 5 8624 7045 2095 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 68 68 W 5 8624 7045 2095 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 67 67 W 5 8099 6128 1178 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 5 7062 4950 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 6146 4950 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com