Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SW 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 62 SW 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 68 SW 5 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 73 SE 6 10234 7932 2982 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 69 75 SE 6 12287 9456 4506 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 69 75 SE 6 12287 9456 4506 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 69 75 SE 7 12287 9456 4506 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 70 75 SE 7 12287 9456 4506 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 70 73 SE 7 10234 7932 2982 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 70 72 SW 8 9561 6928 1978 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 56 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 60 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 66 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 70 N 7 8030 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 66 72 N 7 9561 6928 1978 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 66 73 N 7 10234 7932 2982 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 66 72 N 7 9561 6928 1978 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 67 72 N 7 9561 6928 1978 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 67 71 N 7 8851 4950 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 66 68 W 5 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 5 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 NW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 NW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 NW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NW 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 NW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 59 NW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 63 NW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 67 NW 8 3879 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 69 NW 8 7004 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 64 70 NW 8 8030 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 64 70 NW 8 8030 4950 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 64 69 NW 8 7004 4950 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 64 67 NW 8 3879 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 65 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 NW 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 62 N 8 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 66 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 68 S 9 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 69 S 9 7004 4950 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 63 69 S 9 7004 4950 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 64 69 S 9 7004 4950 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 64 67 S 9 3879 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 65 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 61 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 S 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 56 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 60 N 7 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 65 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 67 SW 9 3879 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 68 SW 9 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 68 SW 9 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 68 SW 9 4864 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 66 SW 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 64 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 51 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 54 W 9 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 58 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 61 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 62 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 62 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 62 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 60 W 12 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 57 W 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 W 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 W 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NW 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 NW 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NW 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 14 3563 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com