Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 9 13 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 9 13 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 NNW 9 13 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 9 13 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 9 13 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 13 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 N 6 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 N 6 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 N 6 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 72 NE 6 11 7021 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 70 75 NE 6 11 8755 5804 854 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 73 79 NE 6 11 10503 8846 3896 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 75 80 E 9 13 10825 9432 4482 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 76 80 E 9 13 10825 9432 4482 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 76 79 E 9 13 10503 8846 3896 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 76 77 SE 5 9 9526 8659 3709 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 73 73 SE 5 9 8602 5380 430 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 69 69 SE 5 9 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 5 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 NW 5 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 5 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 4 6 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 N 4 6 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 4 6 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 N 4 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 N 4 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 N 4 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 E 3 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 67 E 3 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 69 E 3 5 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 74 ESE 5 9 8667 5592 642 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 73 78 ESE 5 9 10139 8743 3793 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 75 81 ESE 5 9 11331 10037 5087 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 77 82 SE 10 16 11824 10471 5521 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 78 82 SE 10 16 11824 10471 5521 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 78 81 SE 10 16 11331 10037 5087 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 77 78 S 13 20 10139 8743 3793 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 74 74 S 13 20 8667 5592 642 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 70 70 S 13 20 5384 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 SW 4 6 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SW 4 6 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 4 6 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 5 9 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 5 9 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 9 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 10 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 SW 6 10 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 6 10 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SW 4 4 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 SW 4 4 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 63 SW 4 4 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 66 SSW 6 11 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 70 SSW 6 11 5384 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 72 SSW 6 11 7021 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 68 73 SSW 10 18 8602 5380 430 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 69 73 SSW 10 18 8602 5380 430 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 69 72 SSW 10 18 7021 4950 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 67 68 SW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 62 SW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 11 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WSW 11 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 11 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 14 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 14 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 14 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 54 WSW 8 14 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 WSW 8 14 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 58 WSW 8 14 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 60 W 11 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 61 W 11 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 61 W 11 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 60 WNW 11 18 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 WNW 11 18 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 11 18 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 WNW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 8 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NW 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NW 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NW 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 NNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 59 NNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 62 N 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 65 N 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 67 N 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 68 N 13 20 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 68 N 13 20 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 68 N 13 20 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 66 N 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 64 N 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NNW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NNW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 NW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 NW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 NW 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 WNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 WNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 WNW 12 19 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 WNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 65 WNW 10 16 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 69 N 11 17 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 72 N 11 17 7021 4950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 68 74 N 11 17 8667 5592 642 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 70 75 E 10 16 8755 5804 854 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 71 75 E 10 16 8755 5804 854 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 71 74 E 10 16 8667 5592 642 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 70 71 S 6 9 5598 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 68 68 S 6 9 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 65 S 6 9 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 9 12 4596 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com