NEWS:

January 30, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Northern California Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Dmitry Chichkov

Sounding

Station:

KOAK (alt)

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Dumps SW 14 0 W 16 0 W 21 0 W 21 0 W 21 0 W 16 0
Mt Diablo W 16 5331 W 16 7111 W 14 6265 SW 21 2824 SW 21 1005 NW 12 2824
Ed Levin NW 15 5392 NW 15 5936 W 10 5842 W 15 2076 W 15 326 W 10 2314
Mission Peak W 15 5453 W 14 6344 W 12 5753 W 16 1267 SW 15 185 W 12 2151
Potato Hill N 10 6936 N 10 9107 W 12 8458 NE 12 4467 W 8 1107 NW 7 4316
Mt Tamalpais W 15 3398 NW 15 5569 NW 18 2420 W 22 0 W 25 0 W 16 262
Tollhouse W 12 3891 W 7 6439 NE 6 8036 SW 7 5263 SW 8 3583 W 7 3737
Elk Mountain W 7 6676 N 7 8925 W 12 8021 W 9 3907 W 12 852 W 8 3755
Big Sur W 6 3306 W 7 5410 W 7 4537 NW 20 0 NW 17 0 NW 16 0
Ft Funston SW 13 0 SW 10 0 W 16 0 W 21 0 W 21 0 W 15 0
Marina Beach W 12 386 W 12 386 W 14 386 W 17 386 W 15 386 NW 15 386
Dunlap SW 8 3559 W 7 6907 E 5 8200 SW 8 6314 SW 9 3483 W 7 4053
Weaver Bally N 7 5799 NE 5 7120 W 10 6144 NW 7 2143 W 7 692 NW 6 1820
Timberline N 7 6834 N 9 7412 W 9 7412 W 8 3480 W 10 1771 NW 9 2518
Burn Launch NE 12 4761 N 8 6638 SW 16 8282 SW 16 4761 SW 17 1759 W 10 2061
Hat Creek Rim N 12 5919 N 8 8071 W 13 8411 W 8 4764 SW 12 3013 W 9 3491
St John N 10 5355 N 13 6282 SE 13 6065 NE 15 2300 W 9 0 NW 10 1465
Noel Springs N 14 7481 N 16 8261 S 15 8855 NE 13 5231 SW 8 2552 NW 8 3096
Lake McClure NW 12 6202 NW 7 9737 NE 6 10401 SW 7 7116 W 7 5722 W 7 6020
Sugar Hill N 12 4043 N 7 5778 W 13 5997 N 8 1690 W 14 744 W 13 2334
Goat Mountain N 12 5749 N 13 8442 W 14 9598 W 14 5357 W 12 3687 NW 16 4733

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com