Detailed Predictions for: St John
Launch Altitude (f): 6350
LZ Altitude (f): 1185
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 44 44 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 58 N 5 4474 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 61 N 5 5790 6350 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 61 63 NE 5 6213 6350 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 62 63 NE 5 6213 6350 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 62 62 NE 5 6002 6350 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 61 61 NE 2 5790 6350 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 59 59 NE 2 4683 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 NE 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 N 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 N 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 NE 3 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 3 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 5 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NW 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NW 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 NW 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 E 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 53 E 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 E 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 2 4683 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 60 E 2 5509 6350 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 60 60 E 2 5509 6350 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 59 59 SW 2 4683 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 SW 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 SW 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 SW 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 SW 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 SW 2 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 NE 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 52 NE 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 NE 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 56 NE 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 56 NE 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 NE 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 NE 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 50 51 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 51 52 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 52 52 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 E 8 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 N 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 E 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 E 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 SE 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 SE 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 50 SE 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 51 SE 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 52 SE 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 SE 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 51 S 12 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 S 12 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 S 12 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 S 12 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 S 12 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 S 12 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 S 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 S 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 S 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 S 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 S 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 S 10 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 S 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 S 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 S 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 39 S 16 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 40 S 16 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 41 42 S 16 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 42 S 16 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 43 43 S 16 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 S 16 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 S 17 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 S 17 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 17 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 S 17 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 S 17 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 S 17 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 SW 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 SW 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 SW 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 SW 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 SW 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 SW 13 4357 6350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com