Detailed Predictions for: St John
Launch Altitude (f): 6350
LZ Altitude (f): 1185
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 60 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 62 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 62 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 62 SE 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 61 SE 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 SE 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 SE 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 SE 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 SE 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 S 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 S 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 S 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 53 SE 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 56 SE 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 58 SE 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 57 S 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 55 S 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 S 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 53 NW 3 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 51 NW 3 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 NW 3 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 NW 3 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 NW 3 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 NW 3 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 56 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 57 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 57 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 57 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 N 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 N 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 W 8 3952 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 W 8 3952 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 61 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 59 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 62 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 63 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 61 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 58 N 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 57 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 54 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 7 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NW 6 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 59 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 60 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 60 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 58 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 56 NW 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 10 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 10 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 10 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 W 10 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 W 10 3770 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 10 3770 6350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com