Detailed Predictions for: St John
Launch Altitude (f): 6350
LZ Altitude (f): 1185
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 NW 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 NW 6 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 68 NW 6 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 70 NW 6 3938 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 74 W 5 5965 6350 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 71 78 W 5 7849 6350 0 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 73 80 W 5 8886 7353 1003 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 75 82 W 8 10424 8118 1768 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 75 81 W 8 9699 7816 1466 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 75 80 W 8 8886 7353 1003 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 74 77 NW 10 7421 6350 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 74 75 NW 10 6341 6350 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 71 71 NW 10 4435 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 NW 10 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 NW 10 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 10 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 N 5 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 N 5 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 70 N 5 3938 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 72 N 6 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 76 N 6 6712 6350 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 72 79 N 6 8154 6685 335 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 73 80 E 5 8886 7353 1003 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 74 80 E 5 8886 7353 1003 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 74 79 E 5 8154 6685 335 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 73 76 N 7 6712 6350 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 72 73 N 7 5580 6350 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 71 71 N 7 4435 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 3429 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 7 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 N 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 N 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 W 6 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 W 6 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 W 6 3429 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 72 W 6 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 74 SW 10 5965 6350 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 71 78 SW 10 7849 6350 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 74 81 SW 10 9699 7816 1466 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 76 83 SW 10 11000 8747 2397 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 77 83 SW 10 11000 8747 2397 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 77 82 SW 10 10424 8118 1768 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 76 79 W 10 8154 6685 335 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 75 76 W 10 6712 6350 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 5580 6350 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 71 71 W 10 4435 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 3938 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 10 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 SW 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 SW 7 3429 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 72 SW 7 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 75 S 12 6341 6350 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 71 79 S 12 8154 6685 335 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 73 81 S 12 9699 7816 1466 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 74 82 S 12 10424 8118 1768 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 75 82 S 12 10424 8118 1768 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 75 81 S 12 9699 7816 1466 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 74 77 SW 12 7421 6350 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 73 75 SW 12 6341 6350 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 12 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 12 3938 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 12 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 12 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 W 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 8 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 SE 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SE 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 SE 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 63 SE 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 SE 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 69 SE 7 3429 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 72 SE 9 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 74 SE 9 5965 6350 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 68 76 SE 9 6712 6350 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 70 78 SE 9 7849 6350 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 71 78 SE 9 7849 6350 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 72 77 SE 9 7421 6350 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 72 75 S 12 6341 6350 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 71 72 S 12 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 70 S 12 3938 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 S 12 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 S 12 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 S 12 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 S 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 64 S 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 S 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 68 S 7 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 70 S 9 3938 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 73 S 9 5580 6350 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 67 75 S 9 6341 6350 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 69 76 S 9 6712 6350 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 70 77 S 9 7421 6350 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 71 76 S 9 6712 6350 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 71 74 S 9 5965 6350 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 70 72 S 9 4921 6350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 S 9 2908 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 S 9 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 S 9 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 S 9 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 W 7 2835 6350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com