Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 44 44 SW 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 SW 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SW 10 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 44 SW 10 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 44 SW 16 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 47 SW 16 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 47 48 SW 16 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 47 48 W 14 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 W 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 W 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 W 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 W 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 W 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 W 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 W 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 46 47 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 50 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 51 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 53 N 9 6242 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 54 N 9 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 54 N 8 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 N 8 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 N 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 N 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 50 NW 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 54 NW 3 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 57 NW 3 7575 7200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 55 59 NW 3 8048 7296 96 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 57 60 NW 3 8392 7560 360 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 58 60 NW 3 8392 7560 360 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 58 59 N 5 8048 7296 96 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 5 7309 7200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 N 5 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 NE 3 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 NE 3 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 58 S 2 7840 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 57 61 S 2 8957 7822 622 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 60 65 S 2 10438 9439 2239 White 11
2 PM Sat 61 65 S 2 10438 9439 2239 White 11
3 PM Sat 64 67 S 2 10871 10225 3025 White 13
4 PM Sat 65 67 S 2 10871 10225 3025 White 13
5 PM Sat 65 66 NW 2 10655 9817 2617 White 12
6 PM Sat 62 62 NW 2 9488 8034 834 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 2 7840 7200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 54 54 NW 2 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 NW 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NW 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 W 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 W 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 W 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 W 2 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 SW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 SW 6 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 SW 6 6242 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 56 SW 8 7309 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 57 58 SW 8 7840 7200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 59 60 SW 8 8392 7560 360 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 61 62 SW 8 9488 8034 834 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 61 62 SW 8 9488 8034 834 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 8392 7560 360 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 12 8048 7296 96 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 12 7575 7200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 7309 7200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 54 54 W 12 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 W 12 6242 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 52 N 9 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 55 N 10 7041 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 56 59 N 10 8048 7296 96 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 58 61 N 10 8957 7822 622 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 60 63 N 10 9866 8346 1146 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 61 63 N 10 9866 8346 1146 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 62 63 N 10 9866 8346 1146 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 61 62 NE 12 9488 8034 834 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 59 59 NE 12 8048 7296 96 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 12 7309 7200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 53 53 NE 12 6242 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 12 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 5768 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com