Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 1 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 NW 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 NW 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 NNW 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 25 25 NNW 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 25 25 NNW 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 N 4 8 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 N 4 8 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 N 4 8 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 29 30 ENE 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 32 34 ENE 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 40 ENE 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 38 44 N 3 6 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 49 N 3 6 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 51 N 3 6 7141 7200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 46 52 WNW 6 10 7448 7200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 47 52 WNW 6 10 7448 7200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 48 52 WNW 6 10 7448 7200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 49 51 W 8 12 7141 7200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 48 49 W 8 12 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 W 8 12 5562 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 W 9 13 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 W 9 13 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 W 9 13 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 WNW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 WNW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 W 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 W 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 W 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 SW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 SW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 SW 8 12 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 WSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 43 45 WSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 47 WSW 14 23 5562 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 50 W 17 26 6777 7200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 48 50 W 17 26 6777 7200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 49 51 W 17 26 7141 7200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 49 50 WNW 18 27 6777 7200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 18 27 5786 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 WNW 18 27 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 WNW 12 19 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 WNW 12 19 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 WNW 12 19 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 NW 9 13 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 NW 9 13 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 NW 9 13 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 N 5 9 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 N 5 9 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 N 5 9 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 ENE 5 6 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 ENE 5 6 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 ENE 5 6 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 40 SE 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 44 SE 6 10 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 49 SE 6 10 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 53 S 9 12 7752 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 52 58 S 9 12 10281 8258 1058 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 54 61 S 9 12 11832 10113 2913 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 57 62 SSW 11 16 13136 10456 3256 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 58 62 SSW 11 16 13136 10456 3256 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 58 61 SSW 11 16 11832 10113 2913 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 57 58 SW 12 19 10281 8258 1058 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 56 56 SW 12 19 8616 7733 533 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 53 53 SW 12 19 7752 7200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 51 51 SW 10 17 7141 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 49 49 SW 10 17 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SW 10 17 5786 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 SSW 10 17 5562 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SSW 10 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SSW 10 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SSW 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 SSW 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 14 21 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 14 21 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 14 21 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 43 SSW 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 43 SSW 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 42 SW 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 SW 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 SW 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 WSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 WSW 14 23 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 W 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 W 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 W 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 WNW 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 WNW 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 WNW 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 WNW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 11 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 11 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 11 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 WNW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 33 WNW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 WNW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 37 W 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 38 W 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 37 40 W 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 38 40 W 12 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 39 41 W 12 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 40 W 12 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 39 39 W 13 21 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 W 13 21 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 W 13 21 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 W 13 19 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 W 13 19 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 13 19 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 WSW 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 WSW 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 12 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 10 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 WSW 10 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 WSW 10 17 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 SW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 SW 11 16 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 11 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 37 WSW 11 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 39 WSW 11 18 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 42 WSW 14 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 46 WSW 14 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 47 WSW 14 20 5562 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 46 48 W 16 24 5786 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 46 48 W 16 24 5786 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 47 W 16 24 5562 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 47 W 17 25 5562 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 W 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 17 25 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 W 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 W 13 20 5554 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]