Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 E 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 E 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 ESE 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 ESE 5 9 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 5 9 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 5 9 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 56 SE 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 63 SE 4 8 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 69 SE 4 8 10165 9000 1800 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 68 74 SW 4 8 14177 11790 4590 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 69 76 SW 4 8 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 72 79 SW 4 8 16258 15099 7899 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 74 80 W 8 12 16599 15450 8250 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 75 80 W 8 12 16599 15450 8250 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 75 78 W 8 12 15913 14642 7442 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 74 76 W 8 12 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 12 14177 11790 4590 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 8 12 11090 9268 2068 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 4 8 9056 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 4 8 6010 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 4 8 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 W 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 W 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 W 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 SW 0 3 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 63 SW 0 3 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 68 SW 0 3 9385 8470 1270 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 66 72 W 4 8 12746 10056 2856 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 68 75 W 4 8 14833 12574 5374 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 70 77 W 4 8 15564 13992 6792 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 71 77 W 6 10 15564 13992 6792 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 72 77 W 6 10 15564 13992 6792 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 72 76 W 6 10 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 71 73 NW 9 13 13484 10937 3737 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 69 70 NW 9 13 11090 9268 2068 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 67 67 NW 9 13 9280 7952 752 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 64 64 NW 9 13 8032 7200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 61 61 NW 9 13 5717 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 NW 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NW 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NW 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 6 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 6 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 N 3 6 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 6 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 N 3 6 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 N 3 6 5421 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 64 N 4 8 8032 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 65 68 N 4 8 9385 8470 1270 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 67 70 N 4 8 11090 9268 2068 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 68 71 N 4 8 11953 9373 2173 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 68 71 N 4 8 11953 9373 2173 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 67 69 N 4 8 10165 9000 1800 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 66 67 N 10 16 9280 7952 752 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 63 63 N 10 16 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 N 10 16 5717 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 N 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 N 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 55 NNE 9 13 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 61 NNE 9 13 5717 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 65 NNE 12 19 8499 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 63 69 NNE 12 19 10165 9000 1800 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 65 71 NNE 12 19 11953 9373 2173 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 67 73 NNE 12 19 13484 10937 3737 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 68 73 NNE 12 19 13484 10937 3737 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 69 73 NNE 12 19 13484 10937 3737 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 69 71 NNE 14 23 11953 9373 2173 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 68 69 NNE 14 23 10165 9000 1800 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 65 65 NNE 14 23 8499 7200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 62 62 NNE 14 23 6010 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 14 23 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 14 23 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 NNE 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NNE 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NNE 10 16 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NNE 8 12 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 8 12 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 8 12 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 53 NNE 8 12 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 59 NNE 8 12 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 63 NNE 8 12 6773 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 69 NNE 6 10 10165 9000 1800 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 65 72 NNE 6 10 12746 10056 2856 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 67 74 NNE 6 10 14177 11790 4590 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 69 76 NNE 6 10 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 70 76 NNE 6 10 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 71 75 NNE 6 10 14833 12574 5374 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 71 73 N 6 10 13484 10937 3737 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 69 70 N 6 10 11090 9268 2068 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 6 10 9056 7200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 64 64 N 6 10 8032 7200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 6 10 5717 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 10 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 N 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 SW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 SW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 59 SW 2 5 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 65 SW 2 5 8499 7200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 70 WSW 6 10 11090 9268 2068 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 67 73 WSW 6 10 13484 10937 3737 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 69 76 WSW 6 10 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 70 76 WSW 6 10 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 71 76 WSW 6 10 15210 13305 6105 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 71 74 WSW 6 10 14177 11790 4590 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 70 72 W 16 24 12746 10056 2856 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 68 69 W 16 24 10165 9000 1800 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 16 24 8499 7200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 61 61 W 16 24 5717 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 16 24 5279 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 W 16 24 5279 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com