Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 32 32 SW 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 SW 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 SW 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 37 SW 9 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 38 SW 15 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 40 40 SW 15 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 41 SW 15 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 41 41 SW 15 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 41 41 SW 15 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 40 40 SW 15 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 SW 15 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 SW 15 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 SW 15 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 SW 7 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 SW 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 SW 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 NW 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 NW 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 NW 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 34 34 NW 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 35 35 NW 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 37 37 NW 2 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 37 37 W 7 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 37 37 W 7 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 37 37 W 7 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 W 8 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 W 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 W 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 W 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 W 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 W 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 W 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 W 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 W 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 W 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 W 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 W 3 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 E 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 E 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 E 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 E 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 33 E 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 36 E 2 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 39 SE 7 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 42 SE 7 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 42 45 SE 7 9235 8139 939 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 43 46 SE 7 9984 8378 1178 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 44 46 SE 7 9984 8378 1178 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 44 45 SE 7 9235 8139 939 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 43 43 S 10 8403 7200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 41 41 S 10 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 38 38 S 10 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 S 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 S 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 S 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 SE 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 SE 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 SE 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SE 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SE 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 SE 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 SE 16 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 SE 16 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 SE 16 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 SE 16 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 SE 16 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 39 SE 16 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 40 S 18 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 41 S 18 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 42 42 S 18 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 43 43 S 18 8403 7200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 43 43 S 18 8403 7200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 42 42 S 18 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 42 42 S 14 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 40 40 S 14 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 S 14 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 S 14 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 S 14 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 S 14 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 S 9 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 S 9 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 38 S 9 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 40 S 12 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 41 41 S 12 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 42 42 S 12 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 43 43 S 12 8403 7200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 42 42 S 12 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 42 42 S 12 8158 7200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 41 41 S 9 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 40 40 S 9 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 S 9 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 S 9 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 S 9 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 S 9 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 S 8 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 S 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 S 8 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 S 8 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 S 8 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 8 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 10 5461 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 S 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 S 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 S 10 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 S 10 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 39 S 10 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 41 SW 16 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 41 41 SW 16 7546 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 40 40 SW 16 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 40 40 SW 16 6940 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 SW 16 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 SW 16 6482 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 38 38 SW 15 5978 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 SW 15 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 SW 15 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 SW 15 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 SW 15 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 SW 15 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 SW 13 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 SW 13 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 SW 13 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 SW 13 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 SW 13 5233 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 SW 13 5233 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com