Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 SW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 58 SW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 61 SW 3 6252 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 63 SW 6 7156 7200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 62 63 SW 6 7156 7200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 62 62 SW 6 6861 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 60 SW 3 5618 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 SW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 SW 5 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 SW 5 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SW 5 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 5 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 S 5 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 5 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 55 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 58 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 57 SW 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 SW 7 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 48 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 49 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 50 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 NW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 NW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 NW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 NW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 NW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 NW 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 NE 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NE 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NE 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 NE 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 51 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 50 E 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 E 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 E 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 E 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 E 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 SE 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 SE 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 SE 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 SE 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SE 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SE 2 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 SE 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 51 SE 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 54 SE 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 55 SE 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 55 SE 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 SE 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 S 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 S 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 S 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 S 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 S 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 S 1 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 S 3 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 49 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 55 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 54 SW 6 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 SW 13 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 SW 13 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 SW 13 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 SW 13 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 SW 13 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 SW 13 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 W 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 W 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 W 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 W 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 W 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 W 8 5000 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com