Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 39 39 NE 2 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 2 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 46 N 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 51 N 6 7141 7200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 52 57 N 6 7950 7708 508 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 55 61 N 8 8923 8023 823 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 58 65 N 8 10461 9213 2013 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 61 69 N 8 11771 10660 3460 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 63 70 N 9 12136 10919 3719 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 65 71 N 9 12479 11243 4043 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 65 69 N 9 11771 10660 3460 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 65 68 N 12 11301 10425 3225 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 65 66 N 12 10698 9534 2334 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 64 64 N 12 10156 8890 1690 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 59 59 N 9 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 7950 7708 508 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 9 7713 7200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 7 7635 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 7 7556 7200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 5386 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 3 6001 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 N 6 7713 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 56 59 N 6 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 60 64 N 6 10156 8890 1690 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 63 69 N 7 11771 10660 3460 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 65 72 N 7 12669 11664 4464 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 67 75 N 7 13353 12630 5430 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 70 77 N 7 14551 12978 5778 Blue 27
3 PM Mon 71 77 N 7 14551 12978 5778 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 72 76 N 7 13965 12804 5604 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 72 75 N 6 13353 12630 5430 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 71 72 N 6 12669 11664 4464 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 69 69 N 6 11771 10660 3460 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 66 66 N 6 10698 9534 2334 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 6 9249 8233 1033 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 2 7871 7630 430 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 2 7713 7200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 2 7556 7200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 6001 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 NE 2 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 E 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 3 7141 7200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 55 56 E 3 7871 7630 430 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 60 63 E 3 9588 8563 1363 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 64 69 E 3 11771 10660 3460 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 67 71 S 7 12479 11243 4043 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 70 74 S 7 13019 12405 5205 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 72 77 S 7 14551 12978 5778 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 73 77 S 7 14551 12978 5778 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 74 78 S 7 14977 13197 5997 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 74 77 S 7 14551 12978 5778 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 73 74 W 13 13019 12405 5205 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 13 12479 11243 4043 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 13 11771 10660 3460 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 13 10698 9534 2334 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 9249 8233 1033 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 13 8029 7787 587 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 6 7792 7551 351 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 6 7635 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 51 51 NW 6 7141 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 5386 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 8 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 8 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 N 8 7141 7200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 52 54 N 8 7713 7200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 55 57 NE 6 7950 7708 508 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 57 59 NE 6 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 59 61 NE 6 8923 8023 823 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 61 63 NE 6 9588 8563 1363 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 62 64 NE 6 10156 8890 1690 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 62 63 NE 6 9588 8563 1363 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 61 62 NW 6 9249 8233 1033 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 6 8593 7944 744 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 8029 7787 587 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 6 7871 7630 430 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 6 7635 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 51 51 NW 6 7141 7200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 5386 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NE 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 NE 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 NW 5 7141 7200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 52 53 NW 5 7635 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 53 55 SW 7 7792 7551 351 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 55 58 SW 7 8029 7787 587 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 56 59 SW 7 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 57 60 SW 7 8593 7944 744 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 58 60 SW 7 8593 7944 744 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 58 59 SW 7 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 58 59 W 14 8260 7866 666 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 14 7950 7708 508 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 7871 7630 430 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 14 7713 7200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 14 7556 7200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 14 5386 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 NW 5 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 W 6 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 W 6 5386 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 53 W 6 7635 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 54 58 W 7 8029 7787 587 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 56 61 W 7 8923 8023 823 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 58 64 W 7 10156 8890 1690 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 60 65 W 7 10461 9213 2013 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 62 66 W 7 10698 9534 2334 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 63 66 W 7 10698 9534 2334 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 63 65 W 13 10461 9213 2013 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 62 63 W 13 9588 8563 1363 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 13 8923 8023 823 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 13 8029 7787 587 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 13 7792 7551 351 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 13 7556 7200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 3 6001 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NW 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NW 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NW 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NW 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NW 3 4934 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com