Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 32 32 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 46 NE 6 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 47 50 NE 6 10538 9042 1842 White 9
12 Noon Sat 51 54 NE 6 11396 10883 3683 White 13
1 PM Sat 53 57 NE 6 12032 12032 4832 White 16
2 PM Sat 53 56 N 6 11820 11820 4620 White 15
3 PM Sat 54 57 N 6 12032 12032 4832 White 16
4 PM Sat 54 56 N 6 11820 11820 4620 White 15
5 PM Sat 53 54 N 9 11396 10883 3683 White 13
6 PM Sat 51 51 N 9 10753 9715 2515 White 10
7 PM Sat 46 46 N 9 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 44 44 NE 9 7111 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 42 42 NE 9 6045 7200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 41 41 NE 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 NE 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NE 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NE 3 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 3 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 3 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NE 3 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 3 7855 7200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 48 50 NE 3 10538 9042 1842 White 9
11 AM Sun 52 55 N 7 11608 11416 4216 White 14
12 Noon Sun 56 60 N 7 12664 12489 5289 White 19
1 PM Sun 58 62 N 7 13084 12755 5555 White 21
2 PM Sun 58 62 N 7 13084 12755 5555 White 21
3 PM Sun 59 62 N 7 13084 12755 5555 White 21
4 PM Sun 59 61 N 7 12875 12622 5422 White 20
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 12 12243 12222 5022 White 17
6 PM Sun 56 56 N 12 11820 11820 4620 White 15
7 PM Sun 51 51 N 12 10753 9715 2515 White 10
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 12 10199 8531 1331 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 12 9094 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 12 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 7111 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 7 7111 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 6045 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 6045 7200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 6045 7200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 41 41 NE 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NE 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 6 7855 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 50 51 NE 6 10753 9715 2515 White 10
10 AM Mon 54 56 NE 6 11820 11820 4620 White 15
11 AM Mon 58 61 NE 6 12875 12622 5422 White 20
12 Noon Mon 61 65 NE 6 13713 13197 5997 White 24
1 PM Mon 64 68 NE 6 14335 14165 6965 White 27
2 PM Mon 64 68 NE 6 14335 14165 6965 White 27
3 PM Mon 65 68 NE 6 14335 14165 6965 White 27
4 PM Mon 65 67 NE 6 14127 13758 6558 White 26
5 PM Mon 64 64 N 10 13504 13045 5845 White 23
6 PM Mon 61 61 N 10 12875 12622 5422 White 20
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 12032 12032 4832 White 16
8 PM Mon 54 54 N 10 11396 10883 3683 White 13
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 10753 9715 2515 White 10
10 PM Mon 50 50 N 10 10538 9042 1842 White 9
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 5 10199 8531 1331 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 5 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 5 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 5 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 5 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 46 46 NE 5 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 5 7855 7200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 44 44 NE 5 7111 7200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 44 44 NE 5 7111 7200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 48 48 NE 5 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 53 54 NE 5 11396 10883 3683 White 13
10 AM Tue 57 59 NE 5 12453 12356 5156 White 18
11 AM Tue 61 64 E 5 13504 13045 5845 White 23
12 Noon Tue 65 69 E 5 14541 14541 7341 White 28
1 PM Tue 67 71 E 5 14955 14955 7755 White 30
2 PM Tue 67 71 E 5 14955 14955 7755 White 30
3 PM Tue 68 71 E 5 14955 14955 7755 White 30
4 PM Tue 68 70 E 5 14749 14749 7549 White 29
5 PM Tue 67 68 NE 9 14335 14165 6965 White 27
6 PM Tue 64 64 NE 9 13504 13045 5845 White 23
7 PM Tue 59 59 NE 9 12453 12356 5156 White 18
8 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 11820 11820 4620 White 15
9 PM Tue 54 54 NE 9 11396 10883 3683 White 13
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 9 11182 10516 3316 White 12
11 PM Tue 51 51 NE 5 10753 9715 2515 White 10
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NE 5 10538 9042 1842 White 9
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 47 47 E 5 9094 7200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 8596 7200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 5 10753 9715 2515 White 10
9 AM Wed 56 57 E 5 12032 12032 4832 White 16
10 AM Wed 60 62 E 5 13084 12755 5555 White 21
11 AM Wed 64 67 E 6 14127 13758 6558 White 26
12 Noon Wed 68 72 E 6 15161 15161 7961 White 31
1 PM Wed 71 75 E 6 15774 15774 8574 White 34
2 PM Wed 71 75 E 6 15774 15774 8574 White 34
3 PM Wed 72 75 E 6 15774 15774 8574 White 34
4 PM Wed 72 74 E 6 15572 15572 8372 White 33
5 PM Wed 71 72 SE 6 15161 15161 7961 White 31
6 PM Wed 68 68 SE 6 14335 14165 6965 White 27
7 PM Wed 63 63 SE 6 13295 12893 5693 White 22
8 PM Wed 59 59 SE 6 12453 12356 5156 White 18
9 PM Wed 56 56 SE 6 11820 11820 4620 White 15
10 PM Wed 55 55 SE 6 11608 11416 4216 White 14
11 PM Wed 54 54 SE 6 11396 10883 3683 White 13
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SE 6 11182 10516 3316 White 12
1 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 10538 9042 1842 White 9
2 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 10538 9042 1842 White 9
3 AM Thu 51 51 SE 6 10753 9715 2515 White 10
4 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 10538 9042 1842 White 9
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 10199 8531 1331 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 9799 7804 604 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 53 53 SE 3 11182 10516 3316 White 12
9 AM Thu 58 59 SE 3 12453 12356 5156 White 18
10 AM Thu 62 64 SE 3 13504 13045 5845 White 23
11 AM Thu 66 69 SE 7 14541 14541 7341 White 28
12 Noon Thu 70 74 SE 7 15572 15572 8372 White 33
1 PM Thu 73 77 SE 7 16176 16176 8976 White 36
2 PM Thu 73 77 SE 7 16176 16176 8976 White 36
3 PM Thu 74 77 SE 7 16176 16176 8976 White 36
4 PM Thu 74 76 SE 7 15975 15975 8775 White 35
5 PM Thu 73 74 S 6 15572 15572 8372 White 33
6 PM Thu 69 69 S 6 14541 14541 7341 White 28
7 PM Thu 63 63 S 6 13295 12893 5693 White 22
8 PM Thu 59 59 S 6 12453 12356 5156 White 18
9 PM Thu 57 57 S 6 12032 12032 4832 White 16
10 PM Thu 55 55 S 6 11608 11416 4216 White 14
11 PM Thu 53 53 SE 5 11182 10516 3316 White 12
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 SE 5 10969 10144 2944 White 11
1 AM Fri 50 50 SE 5 10538 9042 1842 White 9
2 AM Fri 50 50 SE 5 10538 9042 1842 White 9
3 AM Fri 50 50 SE 5 10538 9042 1842 White 9
4 AM Fri 49 49 SE 5 10199 8531 1331 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com