Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 37 37 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 48 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 56 E 6 6335 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 56 E 6 6335 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 57 E 6 6550 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 56 E 6 6335 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 E 5 5905 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 E 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 E 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 E 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 47 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 50 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 51 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 49 E 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 E 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 E 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 E 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 E 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 E 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 E 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 E 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 49 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 52 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 50 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 SE 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 42 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 46 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 49 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 50 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 48 49 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 48 SE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 46 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 SE 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 SE 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 SE 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 S 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 40 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 44 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 46 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 48 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 47 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 47 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 S 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 S 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 S 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 S 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 S 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 S 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 S 8 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 S 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 S 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 S 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 S 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 S 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 S 9 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 38 S 18 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 42 S 18 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 44 S 18 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 45 S 18 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 44 S 18 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 S 18 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 S 17 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 S 17 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 37 37 S 17 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 S 17 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 S 17 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 S 17 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 S 16 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 S 16 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 S 16 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 S 16 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 S 16 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 S 16 5591 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com