Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 W 10 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 SW 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 SW 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 28 28 SW 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 31 32 SW 8 5139 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 33 SW 8 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 34 SW 8 6352 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 32 33 SW 7 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 32 33 SW 7 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 32 32 SW 7 5139 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 30 30 SW 3 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 24 24 SW 3 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 20 20 SW 3 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 19 19 S 5 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 18 18 S 5 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 17 17 S 5 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 16 16 E 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 17 17 E 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 16 16 E 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 17 17 E 12 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 16 16 E 12 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 17 17 E 12 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 16 16 E 12 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 16 16 E 12 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 15 15 E 12 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 15 15 E 10 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 E 10 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 E 10 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 35 SE 8 6575 7200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 38 39 SE 8 7105 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 41 43 SE 8 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 41 42 S 8 7373 7200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 40 41 S 8 7284 7200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 40 40 S 8 7194 7200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 38 38 S 7 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 33 33 S 7 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 30 30 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 28 28 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 S 7 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 S 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 S 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 S 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 S 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 S 8 4882 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 S 8 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 SW 9 7105 7200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 42 43 SW 9 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 44 45 SW 9 7642 7369 169 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 44 45 SW 9 7642 7369 169 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 42 42 SW 13 7373 7200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 38 38 SW 13 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 36 36 SW 13 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 6352 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 6352 7200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 33 33 SW 13 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 SW 17 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 SW 17 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 SW 17 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 SW 17 6352 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 33 33 SW 17 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SW 17 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 SW 18 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SW 18 6029 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 SW 18 5139 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SW 18 5139 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 SW 18 6352 7200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 37 37 SW 18 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 41 41 SW 16 7284 7200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 43 43 SW 16 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 44 44 SW 16 7553 7279 79 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 44 44 SW 16 7553 7279 79 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 43 43 SW 16 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 43 43 SW 16 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 42 42 S 9 7373 7200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 39 39 S 9 7105 7200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 38 38 S 9 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 37 37 S 9 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 36 36 SW 12 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 36 36 SW 12 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SW 12 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 36 36 SW 12 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 36 36 SW 12 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 36 36 SW 12 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 36 36 S 10 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 36 36 S 10 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 35 35 S 10 6575 7200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 35 35 S 10 6575 7200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 41 41 S 10 7284 7200 0 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 45 45 S 13 7642 7369 169 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 47 47 S 13 7913 7547 347 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 48 48 S 13 8181 7637 437 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 48 48 S 13 8181 7637 437 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 47 47 S 13 7913 7547 347 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 47 47 S 13 7913 7547 347 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 46 46 S 13 7735 7458 258 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 42 42 S 13 7373 7200 0 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 40 40 S 13 7194 7200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 38 38 S 13 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 38 38 S 13 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 37 37 S 13 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 37 37 S 15 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 37 37 S 15 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 S 15 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 38 38 S 15 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 37 37 S 15 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 37 37 S 15 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 16 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 16 6783 7200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 36 36 S 16 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 36 36 S 16 6679 7200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 38 38 S 16 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 42 42 S 16 7373 7200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 46 46 S 17 7735 7458 258 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 48 48 S 17 8181 7637 437 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 49 49 S 17 8370 7729 529 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 17 8370 7729 529 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 48 48 S 17 8181 7637 437 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 48 48 S 17 8181 7637 437 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 47 47 S 18 7913 7547 347 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 43 43 S 18 7463 7200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 41 41 S 18 7284 7200 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 39 39 S 18 7105 7200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 39 39 S 18 7105 7200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 38 38 S 18 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 38 38 S 14 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 38 38 S 14 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 S 14 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 39 39 S 14 7105 7200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 38 38 S 14 6927 7200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 38 38 S 14 6927 7200 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com