Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 8499 7461 261 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 41 41 E 8 9192 8149 949 White 5
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 8499 7461 261 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 41 41 SE 9 9192 8149 949 White 5
9 AM Sun 42 42 SE 9 9416 8470 1270 White 6
10 AM Sun 43 43 SE 9 9640 8844 1644 White 7
11 AM Sun 45 45 E 5 10072 9963 2763 White 9
12 Noon Sun 47 47 E 5 10501 10501 3301 White 11
1 PM Sun 47 47 E 5 10501 10501 3301 White 11
2 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 10715 10715 3515 White 12
3 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 10715 10715 3515 White 12
4 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 10715 10715 3515 White 12
5 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 10715 10715 3515 White 12
6 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 10715 10715 3515 White 12
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 7 10501 10501 3301 White 11
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 8 10286 10286 3086 White 10
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 8 10072 9963 2763 White 9
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 9856 9366 2166 White 8
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 6 9856 9366 2166 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 6 10072 9963 2763 White 9
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 6 9856 9366 2166 White 8
2 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
6 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 7 9856 9366 2166 White 8
8 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 10072 9963 2763 White 9
9 AM Mon 47 47 NW 8 10501 10501 3301 White 11
10 AM Mon 48 48 NW 8 10715 10715 3515 White 12
11 AM Mon 49 50 NW 9 11141 11141 3941 White 14
12 Noon Mon 51 52 NW 9 11463 11275 4075 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 54 55 NW 9 11758 11449 4249 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 56 57 NW 10 12297 11602 4402 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 56 57 NW 10 12297 11602 4402 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 56 56 NW 10 12029 11525 4325 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 54 54 NW 12 11618 11372 4172 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 53 53 NW 12 11541 11320 4120 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 12 11354 11233 4033 White 15
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 12 11141 11141 3941 White 14
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 12 10715 10715 3515 White 12
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 12 10286 10286 3086 White 10
11 PM Mon 45 45 NW 8 10072 9963 2763 White 9
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NW 8 9856 9366 2166 White 8
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 9856 9366 2166 White 8
2 AM Tue 43 43 NW 8 9640 8844 1644 White 7
3 AM Tue 43 43 NW 8 9640 8844 1644 White 7
4 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 9416 8470 1270 White 6
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 7 9416 8470 1270 White 6
6 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
7 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 9856 9366 2166 White 8
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 10072 9963 2763 White 9
9 AM Tue 47 48 NW 7 10715 10715 3515 White 12
10 AM Tue 49 50 NW 7 11141 11141 3941 White 14
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 8 11541 11320 4120 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 53 56 N 8 12029 11525 4325 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 56 59 N 8 12829 11971 4771 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 58 61 N 8 13472 12503 5303 White 25
3 PM Tue 59 61 N 8 13472 12503 5303 White 25
4 PM Tue 59 61 N 8 13472 12503 5303 White 25
5 PM Tue 59 60 NW 9 13265 12238 5038 White 24
6 PM Tue 58 58 NW 9 12564 11703 4503 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 56 56 NW 9 12029 11525 4325 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 11618 11372 4172 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 9 11463 11275 4075 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 49 49 NW 9 10929 10929 3729 White 13
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 5 10715 10715 3515 White 12
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 5 10501 10501 3301 White 11
1 AM Wed 46 46 NW 5 10286 10286 3086 White 10
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 10072 9963 2763 White 9
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 9856 9366 2166 White 8
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 5 9640 8844 1644 White 7
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 9640 8844 1644 White 7
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 7 9856 9366 2166 White 8
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 10286 10286 3086 White 10
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 10929 10929 3729 White 13
9 AM Wed 52 53 N 7 11541 11320 4120 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 55 57 N 7 12297 11602 4402 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 57 59 N 5 12829 11971 4771 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 59 62 N 5 13678 12766 5566 White 26
1 PM Wed 61 64 N 5 14090 14090 6890 White 28
2 PM Wed 62 65 N 5 14296 14296 7096 White 29
3 PM Wed 62 64 N 5 14090 14090 6890 White 28
4 PM Wed 62 63 N 5 13885 13027 5827 White 27
5 PM Wed 62 63 NW 5 13885 13027 5827 White 27
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 5 13265 12238 5038 White 24
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 12564 11703 4503 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 55 55 NW 5 11758 11449 4249 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 11541 11320 4120 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 50 50 NW 5 11141 11141 3941 White 14
11 PM Wed 48 48 NW 2 10715 10715 3515 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NW 2 10501 10501 3301 White 11
1 AM Thu 45 45 NW 2 10072 9963 2763 White 9
2 AM Thu 44 44 NW 2 9856 9366 2166 White 8
3 AM Thu 44 44 NW 2 9856 9366 2166 White 8
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 2 9640 8844 1644 White 7
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 3 9640 8844 1644 White 7
6 AM Thu 45 45 NW 3 10072 9963 2763 White 9
7 AM Thu 47 47 NW 3 10501 10501 3301 White 11
8 AM Thu 50 50 NW 3 11141 11141 3941 White 14
9 AM Thu 53 54 NW 3 11618 11372 4172 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 55 57 NW 3 12297 11602 4402 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 58 60 W 1 13265 12238 5038 White 24
12 Noon Thu 61 63 W 1 13885 13027 5827 White 27
1 PM Thu 63 65 W 1 14296 14296 7096 White 29
2 PM Thu 65 67 W 1 14707 14707 7507 White 31
3 PM Thu 65 67 W 1 14707 14707 7507 White 31
4 PM Thu 65 66 W 1 14502 14502 7302 White 30
5 PM Thu 64 65 NW 6 14296 14296 7096 White 29
6 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 13678 12766 5566 White 26
7 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 13265 12238 5038 White 24
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 6 12564 11703 4503 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 55 55 NW 6 11758 11449 4249 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 6 11541 11320 4120 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 2 11354 11233 4033 White 15
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 2 11141 11141 3941 White 14
1 AM Fri 48 48 NW 2 10715 10715 3515 White 12
2 AM Fri 47 47 NW 2 10501 10501 3301 White 11
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 2 10286 10286 3086 White 10
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 2 10072 9963 2763 White 9
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 3 10072 9963 2763 White 9
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 3 10286 10286 3086 White 10
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 10715 10715 3515 White 12
8 AM Fri 51 52 N 3 11463 11275 4075 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 54 56 N 3 12029 11525 4325 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 56 59 N 3 12829 11971 4771 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 59 62 NW 1 13678 12766 5566 White 26
12 Noon Fri 61 65 NW 1 14296 14296 7096 White 29
1 PM Fri 64 68 NW 1 14911 14911 7711 White 32
2 PM Fri 66 70 NW 1 15319 15319 8119 White 34
3 PM Fri 67 70 NW 1 15319 15319 8119 White 34
4 PM Fri 67 69 NW 1 15115 15115 7915 White 33
5 PM Fri 67 68 NW 7 14911 14911 7711 White 32
6 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 14296 14296 7096 White 29
7 PM Fri 63 63 NW 7 13885 13027 5827 White 27
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 7 13265 12238 5038 White 24
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 7 12297 11602 4402 Blue 21
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 11618 11372 4172 Blue 18
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 3 11463 11275 4075 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 3 11141 11141 3941 White 14
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 10715 10715 3515 White 12
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 3 10501 10501 3301 White 11
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 3 10072 9963 2763 White 9
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 3 9856 9366 2166 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com