Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 2 6095 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 NE 2 8368 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 69 75 SW 2 10717 9996 2796 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 72 79 SW 2 11337 10850 3650 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 74 82 SW 2 12824 11306 4106 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 75 82 W 7 12824 11306 4106 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 76 82 W 7 12824 11306 4106 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 76 81 W 7 12556 11130 3930 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 74 77 W 10 11004 10534 3334 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 73 74 W 10 10558 9455 2255 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 10 10068 8320 1120 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 69 69 NW 10 8368 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 6465 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 10 5534 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NW 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NW 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 NW 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 W 2 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 W 2 7127 7200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 68 72 W 2 10068 8320 1120 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 71 77 W 6 11004 10534 3334 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 74 81 W 6 12556 11130 3930 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 76 83 W 6 13336 11923 4723 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 78 85 W 10 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 79 85 W 10 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 79 83 W 10 13336 11923 4723 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 77 79 W 15 11337 10850 3650 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 15 11004 10534 3334 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 15 10558 9455 2255 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 71 71 W 15 9520 7722 522 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 15 7760 7200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 15 6095 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 7 5251 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NW 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NW 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 NW 3 5251 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 69 NW 3 8368 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 69 74 NW 3 10558 9455 2255 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 72 78 SW 6 11161 10692 3492 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 75 83 SW 6 13336 11923 4723 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 77 85 SW 6 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 79 87 SW 6 14695 13660 6460 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 80 87 SW 6 14695 13660 6460 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 80 85 SW 6 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 78 81 W 12 12556 11130 3930 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 12 11161 10692 3492 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 12 10717 9996 2796 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 10068 8320 1120 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 12 8368 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 6465 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 7 5534 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 7 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 7 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 3 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 N 3 5251 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 68 N 3 7760 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 68 72 N 3 10068 8320 1120 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 71 77 W 8 11004 10534 3334 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 74 81 W 8 12556 11130 3930 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 76 84 W 8 13753 12499 5299 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 77 85 W 8 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 78 85 W 8 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 78 83 W 8 13336 11923 4723 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 76 79 W 13 11337 10850 3650 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 75 76 W 13 10876 10376 3176 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 13 10399 8897 1697 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 13 8954 7200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 13 7127 7200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 13 5815 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 9 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 9 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 N 9 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 N 9 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 9 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 5 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 NE 5 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 68 NE 5 7760 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 69 74 NE 5 10558 9455 2255 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 72 78 E 6 11161 10692 3492 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 75 83 E 6 13336 11923 4723 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 77 85 E 6 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 79 87 E 6 14695 13660 6460 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 80 87 E 6 14695 13660 6460 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 80 85 E 6 14114 12756 5556 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 78 81 N 7 12556 11130 3930 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 77 78 N 7 11161 10692 3492 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 75 75 N 7 10717 9996 2796 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 73 73 N 7 10399 8897 1697 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 69 69 N 7 8368 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 66 66 N 7 6465 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NE 8 5815 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NE 8 5251 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 NE 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 8 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 NE 5 6095 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 72 NE 5 10068 8320 1120 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 72 77 NE 5 11004 10534 3334 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 76 82 SE 2 12824 11306 4106 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 79 86 SE 2 14469 13214 6014 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 81 89 SE 2 15054 14370 7170 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 83 91 SE 2 15978 14816 7616 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 84 90 SE 2 15266 14645 7445 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 84 89 SE 2 15054 14370 7170 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 82 84 S 5 13753 12499 5299 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 81 82 S 5 12824 11306 4106 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 79 79 S 5 11337 10850 3650 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 76 76 S 5 10876 10376 3176 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 72 72 S 5 10068 8320 1120 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 69 69 S 5 8368 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 6465 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 6 5815 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 5251 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 SW 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 SW 6 4931 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com