Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 41 41 SW 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 SW 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 W 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 W 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 W 1 6562 7200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 59 62 W 5 7645 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 62 66 W 5 8977 7833 633 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 65 70 W 5 10479 9330 2130 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 67 71 W 5 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 68 71 W 5 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 68 70 W 5 10479 9330 2130 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 6 10156 8936 1736 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 6 9376 8130 930 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 7846 7233 33 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 5 6562 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 5 5860 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NW 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NW 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NW 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NW 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NW 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NW 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 NW 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 NW 3 5860 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 61 NW 6 7444 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 60 64 NW 6 8161 7433 233 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 62 67 NW 6 9376 8130 930 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 65 70 NW 6 10479 9330 2130 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 67 71 NW 6 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 67 69 NW 6 10156 8936 1736 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 66 67 W 12 9376 8130 930 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 7846 7233 33 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 6921 7200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 12 5184 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 12 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 12 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 NE 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 NE 5 5860 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 63 S 1 7846 7233 33 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 63 68 S 1 9769 8536 1336 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 66 71 S 1 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 68 73 S 1 12339 10432 3232 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 70 74 S 1 12606 11468 4268 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 71 73 S 1 12339 10432 3232 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 70 71 W 3 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 3 9376 8130 930 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 7846 7233 33 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 3 6921 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 3 5184 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 3 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 1 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 S 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 S 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 S 2 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 60 S 2 7243 7200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 62 65 SW 8 8572 7633 433 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 66 70 SW 8 10479 9330 2130 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 69 74 SW 8 12606 11468 4268 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 71 75 SW 8 12997 12015 4815 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 72 75 SW 8 12997 12015 4815 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 72 74 SW 8 12606 11468 4268 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 70 71 W 15 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 15 8977 7833 633 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 15 7645 7200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 15 6562 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 15 5184 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 15 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 SW 5 6562 7200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 60 63 SW 8 7846 7233 33 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 63 66 SW 8 8977 7833 633 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 66 70 SW 8 10479 9330 2130 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 68 71 SW 8 11680 9719 2519 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 69 72 SW 8 12070 10102 2902 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 70 72 SW 8 12070 10102 2902 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 69 70 SW 16 10479 9330 2130 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 16 8572 7633 433 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 16 7444 7200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 16 6212 7200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 54 54 SW 16 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 SW 16 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 SW 5 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NW 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NW 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 NW 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 59 SW 7 6921 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 59 63 SW 7 7846 7233 33 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 62 66 SW 7 8977 7833 633 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 64 68 SW 7 9769 8536 1336 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 65 68 SW 7 9769 8536 1336 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 65 67 SW 7 9376 8130 930 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 64 65 W 15 8572 7633 433 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 15 7444 7200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 57 57 W 15 6212 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 54 54 W 15 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 15 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 15 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 6 4911 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com