Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 34 34 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 N 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 N 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 N 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 38 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 38 39 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 39 41 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 39 41 N 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 39 40 N 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 N 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 38 38 NW 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 NW 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 NW 10 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 N 14 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 N 14 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 N 14 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 N 17 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 N 17 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 N 17 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 N 16 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 N 16 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 N 16 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 N 20 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 N 20 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 N 20 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 N 23 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 N 23 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 N 23 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 21 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 43 NE 21 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 44 NE 21 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 46 N 20 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 45 46 N 20 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 46 46 N 20 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 46 46 NE 17 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 46 46 NE 17 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 45 45 NE 17 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 44 44 N 15 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 N 15 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 N 15 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 NE 20 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NE 20 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NE 20 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 15 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 15 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NE 15 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 N 9 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 9 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 47 47 N 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 48 49 NE 6 5751 5810 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 49 50 NE 6 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NE 6 6120 5810 0 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 51 52 N 3 6120 5810 0 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 51 52 N 3 6120 5810 0 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 51 51 N 3 5996 5810 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 50 50 NW 3 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 49 49 NW 3 5751 5810 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 48 48 NW 3 5630 5810 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 45 45 N 6 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 43 43 N 6 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 47 48 NE 3 5630 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 48 50 NE 3 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 50 52 NE 3 6120 5810 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 50 52 SW 2 6120 5810 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 51 52 SW 2 6120 5810 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 51 51 SW 2 5996 5810 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 51 51 SW 2 5996 5810 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 50 50 SW 2 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 48 48 SW 2 5630 5810 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 47 47 N 5 5467 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 5 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 43 43 N 5 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 NE 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 NE 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 N 7 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 46 46 N 7 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 48 49 N 5 5751 5810 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 48 49 N 5 5751 5810 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 49 50 N 5 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 49 50 W 3 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 49 50 W 3 5872 5810 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 48 48 W 3 5630 5810 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 48 48 NW 3 5630 5810 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 47 47 NW 3 5467 5810 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 46 46 NW 3 5239 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 5033 5810 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 43 43 N 6 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 6 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 NW 6 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 NW 6 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 44 NW 6 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 4882 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 NW 6 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 NW 6 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 NW 6 4473 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 7 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 N 9 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 4259 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com