Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 NE 3 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 68 71 NE 3 9193 8569 2759 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 72 76 NE 3 9688 9376 3566 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 76 82 SE 3 11329 10272 4462 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 78 85 SE 3 12549 11273 5463 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 79 86 SE 3 13047 11534 5724 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 80 87 SW 7 13532 11914 6104 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 80 86 SW 7 13047 11534 5724 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 80 85 SW 7 12549 11273 5463 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 79 82 W 6 11329 10272 4462 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 76 77 W 6 9787 9475 3665 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 6 9292 8830 3020 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 7 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 7 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 7 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 62 62 N 3 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 3 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 E 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 E 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 5 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 E 3 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 68 70 E 3 9032 7985 2175 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 73 77 E 3 9787 9475 3665 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 77 83 S 7 11592 10678 4868 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 80 87 S 7 13532 11914 6104 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 81 89 S 7 14481 12915 7105 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 82 90 S 7 14847 13395 7585 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 82 89 S 7 14481 12915 7105 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 82 87 S 7 13532 11914 6104 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 81 84 W 9 12037 11011 5201 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 78 80 W 9 10757 9771 3961 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 9589 9278 3468 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 71 71 W 9 9193 8569 2759 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 7285 5810 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 5 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NW 5 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 62 62 NW 5 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 NW 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 5 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NE 5 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 67 68 NE 5 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 70 73 NE 5 9391 9007 3197 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 75 80 NE 5 10757 9771 3961 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 78 85 NW 3 12549 11273 5463 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 81 89 NW 3 14481 12915 7105 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 83 92 NW 3 15341 14363 8553 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 84 92 NW 3 15341 14363 8553 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 85 92 NW 3 15341 14363 8553 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 85 90 NW 3 14847 13395 7585 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 84 87 W 7 13532 11914 6104 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 81 83 W 7 11592 10678 4868 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 7 9688 9376 3566 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 9292 8830 3020 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 7 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 6 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 6 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 63 63 SW 6 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 63 63 SW 6 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 N 8 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 8 4514 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 8 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 67 68 N 8 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 71 74 N 8 9490 9179 3369 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 75 80 N 8 10757 9771 3961 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 79 86 NW 7 13047 11534 5724 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 82 90 NW 7 14847 13395 7585 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 84 93 NW 7 15585 14726 8916 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 86 94 NW 7 15828 15011 9201 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 87 94 NW 7 15828 15011 9201 Blue 32
4 PM Fri 87 92 NW 7 15341 14363 8553 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 86 89 W 10 14481 12915 7105 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 83 85 W 10 12549 11273 5463 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 10 10343 9672 3862 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 9589 9278 3468 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 71 71 W 10 9193 8569 2759 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 10 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 66 66 NW 8 7285 5810 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NW 8 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 8 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 64 64 NW 8 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 63 63 NW 8 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 62 62 NW 8 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 7 4938 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 7 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 65 65 N 7 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 68 69 N 7 8853 7268 1458 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 73 76 N 7 9688 9376 3566 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 78 83 N 7 11592 10678 4868 Blue 21
11 AM Sat 83 90 N 13 14847 13395 7585 Blue 28
12 Noon Sat 86 94 N 13 15828 15011 9201 Blue 32
1 PM Sat 88 97 N 13 16326 15739 9929 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 90 98 N 13 16477 15965 10155 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 91 98 N 13 16477 15965 10155 Blue 36
4 PM Sat 91 96 N 13 16174 15497 9687 Blue 34
5 PM Sat 90 93 NW 13 15585 14726 8916 Blue 31
6 PM Sat 86 88 NW 13 14110 12422 6612 Blue 26
7 PM Sat 81 81 NW 13 11065 9921 4111 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 76 76 NW 13 9688 9376 3566 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 73 73 NW 13 9391 9007 3197 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 70 70 NW 13 9032 7985 2175 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 68 68 NE 10 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NE 10 8107 6134 324 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 66 66 NE 10 7285 5810 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 65 65 NE 10 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 64 64 NE 10 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 63 63 NE 10 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 63 63 NE 8 5714 5810 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 8 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 66 66 NE 8 7285 5810 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 69 70 NE 8 9032 7985 2175 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 73 76 NE 8 9688 9376 3566 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 77 82 NE 8 11329 10272 4462 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 81 88 NE 3 14110 12422 6612 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 84 92 NE 3 15341 14363 8553 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 86 95 NE 3 16022 15255 9445 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 87 95 NE 3 16022 15255 9445 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 88 95 NE 3 16022 15255 9445 Blue 33
4 PM Sun 88 93 NE 3 15585 14726 8916 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 86 89 W 7 14481 12915 7105 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 83 85 W 7 12549 11273 5463 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 7 10757 9771 3961 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 7 9688 9376 3566 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 7 9292 8830 3020 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 9032 7985 2175 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 8632 7049 1239 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 6 8107 6134 324 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 7285 5810 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 7065 5810 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 64 64 W 6 6152 5810 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 6 5714 5810 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com