Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 66 66 NE 12 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 NE 12 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 NE 12 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 SE 3 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 74 SE 3 5845 5810 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 74 77 SE 3 7283 5837 27 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 75 80 SW 8 7711 7272 1462 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 77 83 SW 8 8513 7698 1888 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 78 85 SW 8 8737 8260 2450 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 79 86 SW 9 8848 8500 2690 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 80 86 SW 9 8848 8500 2690 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 80 84 SW 9 8625 7876 2066 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 78 81 SW 7 7914 7414 1604 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 77 78 SW 7 7426 6148 338 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 75 75 SW 7 6163 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 5 5606 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 5 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 W 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 W 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 W 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 W 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 W 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 SW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 SW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 S 3 5366 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 S 3 6163 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 74 77 S 3 7283 5837 27 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 76 81 S 7 7914 7414 1604 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 77 83 S 7 8513 7698 1888 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 79 86 S 7 8848 8500 2690 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 80 87 SW 9 8960 8611 2801 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 81 87 SW 9 8960 8611 2801 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 81 85 SW 9 8737 8260 2450 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 80 83 SW 7 8513 7698 1888 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 77 78 SW 7 7426 6148 338 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 74 74 SW 7 5845 5810 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 6 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 NE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 NE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 SE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 SE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 SE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 70 SE 3 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 73 SE 3 5606 5810 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 75 78 SE 3 7426 6148 338 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 78 83 SW 6 8513 7698 1888 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 80 86 SW 6 8848 8500 2690 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 82 89 SW 6 9476 8834 3024 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 83 90 SW 6 9854 8946 3136 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 84 90 SW 6 9854 8946 3136 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 84 88 SW 6 9185 8723 2913 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 82 85 SW 5 8737 8260 2450 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 79 80 SW 5 7711 7272 1462 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 76 76 SW 5 7140 5810 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 73 73 SW 5 5606 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 71 71 SW 5 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 N 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 N 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 N 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 N 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 N 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 N 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 NE 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 NE 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 NE 6 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 72 NE 6 5366 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 75 NE 6 6163 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 77 80 NE 6 7711 7272 1462 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 79 83 W 7 8513 7698 1888 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 81 87 W 7 8960 8611 2801 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 82 88 W 7 9185 8723 2913 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 83 89 W 7 9476 8834 3024 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 84 89 W 7 9476 8834 3024 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 84 88 W 7 9185 8723 2913 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 83 85 SW 8 8737 8260 2450 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 80 81 SW 8 7914 7414 1604 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 76 76 SW 8 7140 5810 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 73 73 SW 8 5606 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 71 71 SW 8 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 8 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 2 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 2 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 2 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 2 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 W 2 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 W 2 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 NW 5 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 NW 5 5845 5810 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 75 78 NW 5 7426 6148 338 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 77 81 SW 8 7914 7414 1604 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 79 85 SW 8 8737 8260 2450 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 80 86 SW 8 8848 8500 2690 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 81 87 SW 8 8960 8611 2801 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 81 86 SW 8 8848 8500 2690 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 81 85 SW 8 8737 8260 2450 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 79 81 SW 8 7914 7414 1604 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 77 78 SW 8 7426 6148 338 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 8 6163 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 8 5366 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 SW 8 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 8 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 NW 5 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 NW 5 5845 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 77 SW 8 7283 5837 27 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 74 80 SW 8 7711 7272 1462 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 75 82 SW 8 8303 7556 1746 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 76 82 SW 8 8303 7556 1746 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 77 82 SW 8 8303 7556 1746 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 77 81 SW 8 7914 7414 1604 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 75 77 SW 7 7283 5837 27 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 73 74 SW 7 5845 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 71 71 SW 7 4719 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 7 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 7 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 5 4429 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com