Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 63 63 NE 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NE 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NE 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 NE 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 NE 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 72 NE 10 4825 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 74 E 7 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 71 76 E 7 7996 5810 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 71 77 E 7 8712 5810 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 72 77 S 7 8712 5810 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 72 77 S 7 8712 5810 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 72 75 S 7 6495 5810 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 71 73 W 7 5108 5810 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 70 71 W 7 4630 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 7 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 5 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 5 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 5 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NE 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NE 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 NE 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 N 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 70 N 6 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 74 N 6 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 72 76 NW 7 7996 5810 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 74 79 NW 7 9972 7892 2082 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 75 80 NW 7 10539 8631 2821 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 75 80 SW 7 10539 8631 2821 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 7 9972 7892 2082 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 75 78 SW 7 9355 6402 592 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 74 76 NW 10 7996 5810 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 73 74 NW 10 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 72 72 NW 10 4825 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 71 NW 10 4630 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 E 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 E 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 E 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 E 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 E 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 E 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 N 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 N 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 N 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 N 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 72 N 10 4825 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 78 N 10 9355 6402 592 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 76 82 NE 8 12417 9873 4063 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 78 85 NE 8 13421 12337 6527 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 79 86 NE 8 13548 12660 6850 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 80 87 NE 8 13676 13257 7447 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 81 87 NE 8 13676 13257 7447 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 81 86 NE 8 13548 12660 6850 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 81 84 N 9 13293 11444 5634 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 79 80 N 9 10539 8631 2821 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 78 78 N 9 9355 6402 592 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 76 76 N 9 7996 5810 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 74 74 N 9 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 72 72 N 9 4825 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 NE 9 4630 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 NE 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 NE 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 NE 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 NE 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 N 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 N 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 71 N 9 4630 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 75 N 9 6495 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 76 81 N 9 11884 9265 3455 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 79 85 NW 9 13421 12337 6527 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 80 88 NW 9 13804 13384 7574 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 82 90 NW 9 14774 13639 7829 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 82 90 NW 9 14774 13639 7829 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 83 90 NW 9 14774 13639 7829 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 83 88 NW 9 13804 13384 7574 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 82 85 W 10 13421 12337 6527 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 81 83 W 10 12748 10443 4633 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 10 9972 7892 2082 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 76 76 W 10 7996 5810 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 10 4825 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 N 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 N 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 N 8 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 74 N 8 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 73 78 N 8 9355 6402 592 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 76 83 S 8 12748 10443 4633 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 78 86 S 8 13548 12660 6850 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 79 88 S 8 13804 13384 7574 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 79 87 S 8 13676 13257 7447 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 80 87 S 8 13676 13257 7447 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 80 85 S 8 13421 12337 6527 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 79 82 W 10 12417 9873 4063 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 78 80 W 10 10539 8631 2821 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 6495 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 5108 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NW 9 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 70 NW 10 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 74 NW 10 5447 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 79 NW 9 9972 7892 2082 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 73 81 NW 9 11884 9265 3455 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 74 83 NW 9 12748 10443 4633 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 75 83 NW 9 12748 10443 4633 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 75 82 NW 9 12417 9873 4063 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 75 80 NW 9 10539 8631 2821 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 74 77 W 13 8712 5810 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 72 73 W 13 5108 5810 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 13 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 13 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 13 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 NW 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 NW 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 NW 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NW 12 4623 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com