Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 37 37 W 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 W 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 S 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 S 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 47 S 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 48 SW 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 48 SW 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 SW 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 SW 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 SW 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 SW 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 47 SW 12 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 47 SW 12 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 47 SW 14 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 47 SW 14 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 47 SW 14 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 49 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 SE 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 S 13 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 S 13 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 54 S 13 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 55 55 S 13 5411 5810 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 56 56 S 13 5534 5810 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 57 57 S 13 5658 5810 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 57 57 S 13 5658 5810 0 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 56 56 S 13 5534 5810 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 55 55 S 10 5411 5810 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 55 55 S 10 5411 5810 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 54 54 S 10 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 53 53 S 10 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 53 53 S 10 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 10 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 53 53 S 12 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 53 53 S 12 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 S 12 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 12 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 S 12 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 12 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 10 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 S 10 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 54 54 S 10 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 55 56 S 10 5534 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 56 57 S 10 5658 5810 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 58 59 S 10 6398 5810 0 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 58 59 S 10 6398 5810 0 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 57 58 S 10 6106 5810 0 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 56 56 S 10 5534 5810 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 54 54 SW 9 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 53 53 SW 9 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 SW 9 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 SE 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 SE 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SE 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 SE 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SE 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SE 10 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 52 SW 6 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 53 SW 6 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 54 54 SW 6 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 5287 5810 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 53 53 W 6 5163 5810 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 52 52 W 6 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 50 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 52 SW 7 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 52 SW 7 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 52 SW 7 4974 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 SW 7 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 SW 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SW 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SW 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 SW 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 6 4715 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com