Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 W 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 W 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 W 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 W 7 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 W 7 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 51 54 W 7 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 52 55 W 7 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 53 55 W 7 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 53 54 W 7 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 51 51 W 8 5303 5810 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 50 50 W 8 4759 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NW 7 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 NW 7 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 NW 7 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NW 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NW 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 NW 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 NW 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NW 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 W 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 W 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 49 W 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 50 W 12 4759 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 53 W 12 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 54 55 W 12 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 55 56 W 12 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 56 57 W 12 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 55 55 NW 10 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 52 52 NW 10 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 48 48 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NW 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NW 8 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 49 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 W 12 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 54 56 W 12 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 55 57 W 12 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 56 58 W 12 7923 7137 1327 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 56 57 W 12 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 56 57 W 12 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 54 54 NW 10 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 52 52 NW 10 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 10 4759 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 NW 10 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 SW 12 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SW 12 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SW 12 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 12 4759 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 12 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 SW 12 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 4547 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 9 4759 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 57 58 N 9 7923 7137 1327 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 60 62 N 9 8904 8148 2338 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 63 66 N 9 10874 9153 3343 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 65 68 N 9 12150 10076 4266 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 66 69 N 9 12561 10739 4929 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 67 69 N 9 12561 10739 4929 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 67 68 N 9 12150 10076 4266 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 66 66 NW 8 10874 9153 3343 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 9207 8398 2588 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 8428 7645 1835 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 57 57 NW 8 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 8 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 8 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 9 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 9 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 9 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 54 54 NW 9 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 53 53 NW 9 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 53 53 NW 9 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 9 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 60 61 N 9 8679 7897 2087 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 63 65 NW 8 10183 8873 3063 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 66 69 NW 8 12561 10739 4929 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 67 71 NW 8 13156 12001 6191 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 68 71 NW 8 13156 12001 6191 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 68 70 NW 8 12844 11385 5575 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 68 69 NW 8 12561 10739 4929 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 10874 9153 3343 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 64 64 NW 10 9609 8647 2837 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 61 61 NW 10 8679 7897 2087 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 10 8176 7392 1582 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 10 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 10 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 10 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 10 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 56 56 NW 10 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 55 55 NW 10 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 55 55 NW 10 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 54 54 NW 10 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 53 53 NW 10 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 5802 5810 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 53 53 NW 10 6286 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 55 55 NW 10 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 59 60 NW 10 8428 7645 1835 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 62 64 N 10 9609 8647 2837 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 64 67 N 10 11527 9519 3709 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 65 68 N 10 12150 10076 4266 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 66 69 N 10 12561 10739 4929 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 66 68 N 10 12150 10076 4266 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 65 66 N 10 10874 9153 3343 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 64 64 N 12 9609 8647 2837 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 12 8904 8148 2338 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 12 8176 7392 1582 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 57 57 N 12 7669 6728 918 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 56 56 N 12 7414 6262 452 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 55 55 N 12 7157 5810 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 12 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 12 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 6758 5810 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 12 6286 5810 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com