Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 9 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 9 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 9 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 61 NE 9 5151 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 63 66 NE 9 8532 5810 0 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 66 70 NE 9 9795 8753 2943 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 69 73 NE 7 11803 9701 3891 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 70 73 NE 7 11803 9701 3891 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 69 70 NE 7 9795 8753 2943 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 67 67 NE 6 8786 6774 964 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 64 64 NE 6 6844 5810 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4898 5810 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 58 58 NE 8 4624 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NE 10 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NE 8 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 NE 8 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 60 E 3 4898 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 62 65 E 3 7842 5810 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 65 69 E 3 9290 8501 2691 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 67 70 S 5 9795 8753 2943 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 67 70 S 5 9795 8753 2943 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 66 67 S 5 8786 6774 964 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 5 5700 5810 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 5 4898 5810 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 W 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 NE 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 60 S 3 4898 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 61 64 S 3 6844 5810 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 63 67 S 3 8786 6774 964 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 65 68 S 3 9039 7751 1941 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 66 69 S 3 9290 8501 2691 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 66 67 S 3 8786 6774 964 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 6844 5810 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 5151 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 N 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 N 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 NE 6 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 NE 6 4721 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 NE 6 5422 5810 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 63 65 N 3 7842 5810 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 65 68 N 3 9039 7751 1941 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 67 71 N 3 10385 9004 3194 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 69 73 N 3 11803 9701 3891 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 70 73 N 3 11803 9701 3891 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 71 72 N 3 11346 9253 3443 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 71 71 NW 3 10385 9004 3194 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 71 71 NW 3 10385 9004 3194 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 69 69 NW 3 9290 8501 2691 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 3 9039 7751 1941 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 3 8532 5810 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 63 63 NW 3 5700 5810 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 7 5151 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 7 4721 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 7 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 N 7 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 7 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 NE 3 4721 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 NE 3 5422 5810 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 63 65 E 2 7842 5810 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 65 68 E 2 9039 7751 1941 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 67 71 E 2 10385 9004 3194 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 69 72 E 2 11346 9253 3443 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 70 73 E 2 11803 9701 3891 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 70 71 E 2 10385 9004 3194 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 70 70 SW 3 9795 8753 2943 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 68 68 SW 3 9039 7751 1941 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 66 66 SW 3 8532 5810 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 64 64 SW 3 6844 5810 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 3 5422 5810 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 59 59 SW 3 4721 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 3 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 SE 3 4721 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 SE 3 5422 5810 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 62 64 S 5 6844 5810 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 64 67 S 5 8786 6774 964 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 65 69 S 5 9290 8501 2691 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 66 69 S 5 9290 8501 2691 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 67 70 S 5 9795 8753 2943 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 67 68 S 5 9039 7751 1941 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 67 67 SW 6 8786 6774 964 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 65 65 SW 6 7842 5810 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 6 6844 5810 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 62 62 SW 6 5422 5810 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 6 4898 5810 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 58 58 SW 6 4624 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 SW 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SW 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 SW 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 SW 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 SW 5 4544 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com