Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 41 36 NE 5 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 36 NE 5 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 35 NE 5 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 36 NE 3 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 40 NE 3 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 46 NE 3 4028 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 51 W 2 4339 4151 151 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 59 56 W 2 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 61 58 W 2 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 62 59 W 3 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 62 58 W 3 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 60 55 W 3 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 58 53 W 2 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 56 51 W 2 4339 4151 151 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 53 48 W 2 4152 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 46 NE 3 4028 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 45 NE 3 3967 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 44 NE 3 3905 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 44 NE 3 3905 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 43 NE 3 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 NE 3 3843 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 42 NE 2 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 42 NE 2 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 41 NE 2 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 41 N 2 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 41 N 2 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 N 2 3819 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 44 NE 3 3905 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 47 NE 3 4090 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 50 NE 3 4276 4089 89 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 59 54 SE 2 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 63 59 SE 2 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 65 61 SE 2 5540 5167 1167 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 66 61 W 3 5540 5167 1167 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 66 61 W 3 5540 5167 1167 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 64 59 W 3 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 62 57 N 5 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 60 55 N 5 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 58 53 N 5 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 57 52 N 5 4401 4213 213 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 57 52 N 5 4401 4213 213 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 57 52 N 5 4401 4213 213 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 57 52 NE 6 4401 4213 213 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 57 52 NE 6 4401 4213 213 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 56 51 NE 6 4339 4151 151 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 56 51 NE 6 4339 4151 151 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 55 50 NE 6 4276 4089 89 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 55 50 NE 6 4276 4089 89 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 54 49 NE 5 4214 4028 28 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 54 49 NE 5 4214 4028 28 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 54 49 NE 5 4214 4028 28 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 55 50 NE 5 4276 4089 89 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 58 53 NE 5 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 62 57 NE 5 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 66 62 SW 2 5662 5289 1289 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 69 65 SW 2 6645 5655 1655 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 71 67 SW 2 7407 6379 2379 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 72 68 SW 2 8087 6623 2623 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 72 68 SW 2 8087 6623 2623 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 71 66 SW 2 6890 6076 2076 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 69 64 N 2 6400 5533 1533 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 67 62 N 2 5662 5289 1289 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 65 60 N 2 5417 4993 993 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 63 58 N 2 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 63 58 N 2 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 63 58 N 2 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 63 58 E 6 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 62 57 E 6 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 60 55 E 6 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 60 55 E 6 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 58 53 E 6 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 58 53 E 6 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 62 57 E 6 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 66 62 E 6 5662 5289 1289 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 70 66 SE 5 6890 6076 2076 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 73 70 SE 5 9084 7344 3344 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 74 71 SE 5 9438 7993 3993 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 75 72 SE 5 9771 8657 4657 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 75 71 SE 5 9438 7993 3993 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 74 69 SE 5 8725 6866 2866 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 72 67 SW 2 7407 6379 2379 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 69 64 SW 2 6400 5533 1533 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 67 62 SW 2 5662 5289 1289 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 65 60 SW 2 5417 4993 993 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 64 59 SW 2 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 63 58 SW 2 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 63 58 E 6 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 62 57 E 6 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 62 57 E 6 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 62 57 E 6 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 60 55 E 6 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 58 53 E 6 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 65 60 E 6 5417 4993 993 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 69 65 SE 5 6645 5655 1655 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 71 67 SE 5 7407 6379 2379 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 73 69 SE 5 8725 6866 2866 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 74 70 SE 5 9084 7344 3344 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 74 70 SE 5 9084 7344 3344 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 73 68 SE 5 8087 6623 2623 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 71 66 NW 5 6890 6076 2076 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 69 64 NW 5 6400 5533 1533 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 66 61 NW 5 5540 5167 1167 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 64 59 NW 5 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 63 58 NW 5 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 63 58 NW 5 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 63 58 E 6 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 63 58 E 6 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 62 57 E 6 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 60 55 E 6 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 58 53 E 6 4464 4275 275 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 59 54 E 6 4543 4338 338 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 61 56 E 6 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 64 59 E 6 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 67 63 S 6 6116 5411 1411 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 69 65 S 6 6645 5655 1655 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 71 67 S 6 7407 6379 2379 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 71 67 S 6 7407 6379 2379 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 71 67 S 6 7407 6379 2379 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 70 65 S 6 6645 5655 1655 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 68 63 S 3 6116 5411 1411 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 66 61 S 3 5540 5167 1167 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 64 59 S 3 5295 4699 699 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 63 58 S 3 5173 4620 620 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 62 57 S 3 5006 4541 541 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 61 56 S 3 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 61 56 E 7 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 61 56 E 7 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 61 56 E 7 4701 4462 462 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 60 55 E 7 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 60 55 E 7 4622 4400 400 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 59 54 E 7 4543 4338 338 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com