Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 59 SE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 60 SE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 61 SE 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 65 SE 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 70 S 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 75 SW 5 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 78 SW 7 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 78 81 W 7 8069 5149 1149 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 79 83 W 7 9395 6568 2568 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 80 83 W 8 9395 6568 2568 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 82 84 W 9 10000 7974 3974 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 82 82 W 9 8764 5479 1479 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 83 81 W 10 8069 5149 1149 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 83 79 W 10 5496 4661 661 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 82 77 NW 8 4859 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 78 73 NW 7 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 69 N 8 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 67 N 8 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 N 6 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 65 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 64 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 62 N 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 61 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 60 E 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 60 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 61 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 60 E 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 65 S 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 69 SW 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 73 SW 3 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 74 SW 5 3738 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 76 77 SW 6 4859 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 77 79 W 6 5496 4661 661 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 79 80 W 6 6710 4853 853 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 81 81 W 6 8069 5149 1149 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 82 81 W 7 8069 5149 1149 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 82 80 W 7 6710 4853 853 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 81 77 W 7 4859 4000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 79 74 NW 7 3738 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 77 72 NW 6 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 75 70 NW 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 68 NW 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 66 NW 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 65 N 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 64 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 63 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 62 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 61 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 61 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 62 E 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 63 SE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 66 SE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 70 S 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 75 SW 3 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 72 SW 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 79 74 SW 5 3738 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 81 76 W 5 4666 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 82 77 W 5 4859 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 83 78 W 5 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 83 78 W 6 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 83 80 W 6 6710 4853 853 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 82 78 W 6 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 81 76 NW 6 4666 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 80 75 NW 6 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 78 73 NW 6 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 76 71 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 69 NE 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 67 NE 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 66 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 65 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 64 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 63 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 63 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 64 NE 3 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 66 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 69 NE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 74 E 2 3738 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 78 S 3 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 81 78 SW 5 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 83 81 W 6 8069 5149 1149 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 85 83 W 6 9395 6568 2568 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 86 84 W 6 10000 7974 3974 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 87 84 W 6 10000 7974 3974 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 88 85 W 7 10555 8666 4666 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 88 86 W 6 11891 9288 5288 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 87 83 W 6 9395 6568 2568 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 85 80 W 6 6710 4853 853 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 83 78 W 6 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 81 76 W 6 4666 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 78 73 W 6 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 76 71 N 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 69 N 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 68 N 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 67 N 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 65 N 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 64 N 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 64 E 1 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 65 E 1 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 67 E 1 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 70 E 1 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 75 E 1 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 79 E 1 5496 4661 661 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 82 84 W 5 10000 7974 3974 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 84 87 W 5 12413 9885 5885 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 85 88 W 5 12739 10445 6445 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 86 89 W 5 13287 11408 7408 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 87 89 W 5 13287 11408 7408 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 88 88 W 5 12739 10445 6445 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 88 86 W 7 11891 9288 5288 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 87 83 W 7 9395 6568 2568 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 85 80 W 7 6710 4853 853 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 83 78 W 7 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 80 75 W 7 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 73 W 7 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 70 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 68 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 67 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 66 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 64 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 63 N 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 63 SE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 64 SE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 66 SE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 69 SE 2 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 73 SE 2 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 78 SE 2 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 80 82 W 7 8764 5479 1479 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 82 85 W 7 10555 8666 4666 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 83 87 W 7 12413 9885 5885 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 84 87 W 7 12413 9885 5885 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 85 87 W 7 12413 9885 5885 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 86 86 W 7 11891 9288 5288 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 86 84 W 8 10000 7974 3974 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 85 81 W 8 8069 5149 1149 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 83 78 W 8 5163 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 80 75 W 8 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 78 73 W 8 3579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 70 W 8 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 68 E 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 66 E 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 64 E 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 63 E 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 62 E 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 61 E 5 3553 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com