Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 68 63 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 65 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 67 NE 6 5082 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 70 SE 6 7098 5061 1061 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 75 73 SE 6 8686 7076 3076 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 77 77 SE 6 9298 8841 4841 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 78 80 SW 6 9592 9281 5281 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 80 83 SW 6 9979 9573 5573 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 83 87 SW 6 11314 10256 6256 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 85 88 SW 7 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 86 88 SW 7 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 87 87 SW 7 11314 10256 6256 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 87 85 W 8 10744 9768 5768 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 85 81 W 8 9689 9378 5378 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 81 76 W 8 9200 8608 4608 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 78 73 NW 8 8686 7076 3076 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 74 69 NW 8 6222 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 71 66 NW 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 64 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 63 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 63 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 63 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 61 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 59 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 59 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 64 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 69 NE 6 6222 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 76 74 NE 6 8870 7292 3292 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 78 78 NE 6 9396 9017 5017 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 81 83 SW 6 9979 9573 5573 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 85 88 SW 6 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 88 92 SW 6 13468 11856 7856 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 91 94 SW 6 14420 12844 8844 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 93 95 SW 6 14782 13319 9319 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 94 94 SW 6 14420 12844 8844 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 94 92 W 5 13468 11856 7856 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 92 88 W 5 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 90 85 W 5 10744 9768 5768 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 87 82 W 5 9787 9476 5476 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 83 78 W 5 9396 9017 5017 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 79 74 W 5 8870 7292 3292 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 77 72 NE 5 8171 6192 2192 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 76 71 NE 5 7316 5794 1794 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 75 70 NE 5 7098 5061 1061 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 75 70 NE 5 7098 5061 1061 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 73 68 NE 5 5819 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 71 66 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 65 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 66 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 69 NE 6 6222 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 77 73 NE 6 8686 7076 3076 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 80 78 NE 6 9396 9017 5017 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 83 83 NE 6 9979 9573 5573 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 86 88 W 6 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 89 92 W 6 13468 11856 7856 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 92 96 W 6 15048 13883 9883 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 94 97 W 6 15291 14293 10293 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 96 98 W 6 15532 14652 10652 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 97 97 W 6 15291 14293 10293 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 96 94 W 9 14420 12844 8844 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 94 90 W 9 12498 11251 7251 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 90 85 W 9 10744 9768 5768 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 86 81 W 9 9689 9378 5378 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 81 76 W 9 9200 8608 4608 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 77 72 W 9 8171 6192 2192 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 74 69 NE 5 6222 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 72 67 NE 5 5082 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 66 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 65 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 63 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 62 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 61 N 3 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 62 N 3 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 64 N 3 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 68 N 3 5819 4000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 75 73 N 3 8686 7076 3076 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 79 79 N 3 9494 9183 5183 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 84 86 SW 5 11052 9910 5910 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 88 91 SW 5 12989 11508 7508 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 91 95 SW 5 14782 13319 9319 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 95 98 SW 5 15532 14652 10652 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 97 99 SW 5 15773 14957 10957 Blue 32
4 PM Fri 98 98 SW 5 15532 14652 10652 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 98 96 W 8 15048 13883 9883 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 96 92 W 8 13468 11856 7856 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 93 88 W 8 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 90 85 W 8 10744 9768 5768 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 86 81 W 8 9689 9378 5378 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 81 76 W 8 9200 8608 4608 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 78 73 NE 6 8686 7076 3076 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 74 69 NE 6 6222 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 71 66 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 65 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 63 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 63 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 64 NE 7 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 65 NE 7 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 67 NE 7 5082 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 71 NE 7 7316 5794 1794 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 78 76 NE 7 9200 8608 4608 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 81 81 NE 7 9689 9378 5378 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 84 86 SW 6 11052 9910 5910 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 87 90 SW 6 12498 11251 7251 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 90 94 SW 6 14420 12844 8844 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 93 96 SW 6 15048 13883 9883 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 94 96 SW 6 15048 13883 9883 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 95 95 SW 6 14782 13319 9319 Blue 28
5 PM Sat 95 93 W 7 14053 12357 8357 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 94 90 W 7 12498 11251 7251 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 92 87 W 7 11314 10256 6256 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 89 84 W 7 10335 9671 5671 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 86 81 W 7 9689 9378 5378 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 83 78 W 7 9396 9017 5017 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 80 75 NE 5 9046 8099 4099 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 77 72 NE 5 8171 6192 2192 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 74 69 NE 5 6222 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 73 68 NE 5 5819 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 71 66 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 66 NE 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 66 NE 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 73 68 NE 6 5819 4000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 75 70 NE 6 7098 5061 1061 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 77 73 NE 6 8686 7076 3076 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 80 78 NE 6 9396 9017 5017 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 83 83 NE 6 9979 9573 5573 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 86 88 SW 5 11573 10654 6654 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 89 92 SW 5 13468 11856 7856 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 92 95 SW 5 14782 13319 9319 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 94 97 SW 5 15291 14293 10293 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 95 96 SW 5 15048 13883 9883 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 96 96 SW 5 15048 13883 9883 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 96 94 W 6 14420 12844 8844 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 94 90 W 6 12498 11251 7251 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 92 87 W 6 11314 10256 6256 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 89 84 W 6 10335 9671 5671 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 86 81 W 6 9689 9378 5378 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 82 77 W 6 9298 8841 4841 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 79 74 N 6 8870 7292 3292 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 76 71 N 6 7316 5794 1794 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 73 68 N 6 5819 4000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 71 66 N 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 65 N 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 64 N 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com