Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 71 66 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 66 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 65 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 65 S 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 73 SW 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 78 SW 5 5651 4307 307 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 81 82 SW 6 7302 5872 1872 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 83 85 SW 6 7725 7287 3287 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 84 86 SW 7 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 84 86 SW 8 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 85 86 SW 7 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 87 86 SW 7 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 86 83 W 7 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 86 81 W 6 7161 5638 1638 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 86 81 W 6 7161 5638 1638 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 82 77 NW 3 5414 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 78 73 N 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 76 71 N 5 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 71 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 76 71 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 75 70 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 68 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 67 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 67 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 67 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 65 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 66 NW 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 74 SW 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 79 SW 5 5887 4797 797 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 82 83 SW 6 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 84 86 SW 6 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 85 87 SW 6 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 86 88 W 8 8520 7708 3708 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 87 87 W 8 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 88 87 W 8 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 88 85 W 8 7725 7287 3287 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 87 83 W 8 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 85 80 W 8 6793 5403 1403 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 83 78 NW 6 5651 4307 307 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 81 76 NW 6 4809 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 79 74 NW 6 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 77 72 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 76 71 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 70 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 75 70 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 70 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 68 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 67 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 67 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 72 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 78 E 2 5651 4307 307 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 83 83 SW 6 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 85 86 SW 6 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 86 87 SW 6 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 87 88 W 8 8520 7708 3708 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 88 88 W 8 8520 7708 3708 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 89 87 W 8 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 89 85 W 9 7725 7287 3287 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 88 83 W 9 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 86 81 W 9 7161 5638 1638 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 84 79 W 5 5887 4797 797 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 82 77 W 5 5414 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 80 75 W 5 4326 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 78 73 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 77 72 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 76 71 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 76 71 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 76 71 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 75 70 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 75 70 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 68 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 74 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 80 NE 2 6793 5403 1403 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 84 83 SW 5 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 86 86 SW 5 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 87 88 SW 5 8520 7708 3708 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 88 89 W 7 8631 7900 3900 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 90 90 W 7 8741 8279 4279 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 91 89 W 7 8631 7900 3900 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 91 88 W 8 8520 7708 3708 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 90 85 W 8 7725 7287 3287 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 87 82 W 8 7302 5872 1872 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 85 80 NW 5 6793 5403 1403 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 83 78 NW 5 5651 4307 307 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 81 76 NW 5 4809 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 79 74 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 78 73 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 77 72 NE 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 77 72 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 71 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 76 71 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 70 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 68 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 69 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 74 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 80 E 2 6793 5403 1403 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 84 83 SW 6 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 86 86 SW 6 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 86 86 SW 6 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 87 87 SW 8 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 88 87 SW 8 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 89 87 SW 8 8332 7568 3568 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 89 86 W 8 7949 7427 3427 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 88 83 W 8 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 85 80 W 8 6793 5403 1403 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 83 78 W 5 5651 4307 307 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 81 76 W 5 4809 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 79 74 W 5 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 72 NW 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 71 NW 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 70 NW 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 69 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 68 NE 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 68 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 67 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 66 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 66 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 70 E 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 76 E 2 4809 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 80 79 SW 6 5887 4797 797 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 82 82 SW 6 7302 5872 1872 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 83 84 SW 6 7584 7146 3146 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 84 85 SW 8 7725 7287 3287 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 85 85 SW 8 7725 7287 3287 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 86 84 SW 8 7584 7146 3146 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 86 83 W 8 7443 6196 2196 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 85 80 W 8 6793 5403 1403 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 83 78 W 8 5651 4307 307 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 81 76 W 5 4809 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 79 74 W 5 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 77 72 W 5 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 70 N 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 69 N 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 68 N 3 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 73 68 N 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 67 N 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 67 N 2 3589 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com