Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 34 29 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 29 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 28 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 27 SE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 27 SE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 29 SE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 30 S 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 30 S 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 32 S 3 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 36 31 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 37 32 W 6 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 33 W 6 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 33 W 6 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 32 W 6 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 31 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 35 30 SW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 30 SW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 30 SW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 29 E 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 29 E 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 28 E 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 27 SE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 27 SE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 26 SE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 27 E 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 27 E 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 26 E 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 25 SE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 25 SE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 27 SE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 28 SW 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 28 SW 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 33 28 SW 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 34 29 W 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 35 30 W 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 35 30 W 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 35 30 W 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 35 30 W 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 29 W 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 28 NW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 27 NW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 27 NW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 26 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 26 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 25 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 25 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 24 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 24 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 23 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 22 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 26 21 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 21 NE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 24 NE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 28 NE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 35 31 S 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 33 S 3 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 37 34 SW 5 4870 4000 0 White 1
1 PM Mon 37 34 W 6 4870 4000 0 White 1
2 PM Mon 38 35 W 6 5088 4000 0 White 2
3 PM Mon 38 34 W 6 4870 4000 0 White 1
4 PM Mon 38 33 W 6 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 32 W 5 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 31 NW 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 34 29 NW 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 28 N 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 27 NE 2 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 26 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 26 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 30 25 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 25 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 25 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 24 NE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 24 NE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 23 NE 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 23 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 23 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 26 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 30 S 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 34 SW 5 4870 4000 0 White 1
11 AM Tue 39 37 SW 5 5526 5212 1212 White 4
12 Noon Tue 40 38 SW 6 5744 5744 1744 White 5
1 PM Tue 40 38 SW 6 5744 5744 1744 White 5
2 PM Tue 41 38 W 6 5744 5744 1744 White 5
3 PM Tue 41 37 W 6 5526 5212 1212 White 4
4 PM Tue 40 35 W 3 5088 4000 0 White 2
5 PM Tue 39 34 W 3 4870 4000 0 White 1
6 PM Tue 37 32 W 3 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 30 W 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 29 W 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 28 W 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 28 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 28 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 27 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 27 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 27 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 27 NE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 27 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 26 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 26 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 26 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 28 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 31 NE 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 34 S 5 4870 4000 0 White 1
11 AM Wed 39 36 S 5 5307 4277 277 White 3
12 Noon Wed 40 37 S 5 5526 5212 1212 White 4
1 PM Wed 40 37 S 5 5526 5212 1212 White 4
2 PM Wed 40 37 S 5 5526 5212 1212 White 4
3 PM Wed 40 36 S 5 5307 4277 277 White 3
4 PM Wed 40 35 S 3 5088 4000 0 White 2
5 PM Wed 39 34 S 3 4870 4000 0 White 1
6 PM Wed 38 33 S 3 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 37 32 S 3 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 32 S 3 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 31 S 3 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 31 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 31 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 30 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 30 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 30 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 30 E 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 30 SE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 29 SE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 28 SE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 28 SE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 28 SE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 29 SE 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 31 SW 5 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 32 SW 5 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 32 SW 5 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 33 SW 5 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 37 33 SW 5 4291 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 37 32 SW 5 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 32 W 6 3951 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 36 31 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 35 30 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 29 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 28 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 28 W 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 27 E 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 27 E 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 26 E 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 26 E 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 26 E 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 26 E 6 3730 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com