Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 65 ENE 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 65 NE 0 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 64 NNE 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 62 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 60 E 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 E 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 60 E 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 62 E 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 67 E 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 71 SSE 2 5 3891 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 74 S 3 6 5920 4000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 75 77 SSW 4 9 8346 5899 1899 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 76 79 SW 4 10 9224 7405 3405 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 78 81 SW 5 11 9693 8694 4694 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 79 81 SW 5 12 9693 8694 4694 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 80 81 WSW 4 12 9693 8694 4694 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 80 79 WSW 4 11 9224 7405 3405 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 80 77 WSW 4 10 8346 5899 1899 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 78 74 W 4 9 5920 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 75 70 WNW 3 8 3555 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 71 66 NNW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 65 N 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 65 NNE 3 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 NE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 64 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 64 NE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 64 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 63 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 62 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 62 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 61 NNE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 63 NNE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 68 N 2 4 2872 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 72 WNW 2 5 5349 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 75 75 W 3 8 6278 5333 1333 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 75 76 WSW 5 11 7550 5617 1617 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 77 79 WSW 5 11 9224 7405 3405 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 78 81 WSW 5 11 9693 8694 4694 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 79 80 W 5 13 9327 8296 4296 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 80 80 W 5 13 9327 8296 4296 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 80 78 W 5 13 8784 6179 2179 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 80 77 WNW 5 14 8346 5899 1899 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 78 73 WNW 5 14 5636 4000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 75 70 WNW 5 14 3555 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 67 NNW 4 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 66 NNW 4 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 65 NNW 4 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 64 NNE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 63 NNE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 63 NNE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 62 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 61 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 61 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 61 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 62 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 63 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 66 S 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 69 S 2 3 3215 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 72 S 2 3 5349 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 73 75 SW 4 9 6278 5333 1333 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 74 77 SW 4 9 8346 5899 1899 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 75 78 SW 4 9 8784 6179 2179 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 76 78 WSW 5 12 8784 6179 2179 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 77 78 WSW 5 12 8784 6179 2179 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 77 76 WSW 5 12 7550 5617 1617 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 77 74 W 5 12 5920 4000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 75 71 W 5 12 3891 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 68 W 5 12 2872 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 65 WNW 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 63 WNW 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 62 WNW 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 61 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 60 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 59 NNE 2 5 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 58 ENE 1 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 57 ENE 1 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 56 ENE 1 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 56 E 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 57 E 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 58 E 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 60 SSW 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 62 SSW 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 61 SW 5 11 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 62 SW 5 11 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 63 SW 5 11 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 64 SW 5 13 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 65 SW 5 13 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 64 SW 5 13 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 63 WSW 5 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 62 WSW 5 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 60 WSW 5 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 58 NW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 57 NW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 57 NW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 57 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 56 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 55 NE 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 54 ENE 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 53 ENE 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 52 ENE 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 52 E 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 53 E 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 54 E 1 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 57 SSW 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 59 SSW 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 62 SSW 2 4 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 60 SW 4 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 61 SW 4 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 62 SW 4 10 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 63 WSW 4 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 64 WSW 4 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 64 WSW 4 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 65 W 4 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 63 W 4 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 62 W 4 12 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 60 NNW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 59 NNW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 58 NNW 2 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 58 NNE 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 58 NNE 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 57 NNE 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 57 NE 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 56 NE 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 55 NE 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 54 ENE 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 55 ENE 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 56 ENE 1 2 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 59 SSW 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 63 SSW 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 66 SSW 2 3 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 67 SW 4 9 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 69 SW 4 9 3215 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 70 SW 4 9 3555 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 5 12 3891 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 71 WSW 5 12 3891 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 72 69 WSW 5 12 3215 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 69 W 4 11 3215 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 67 W 4 11 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 64 W 4 11 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 62 WNW 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 61 WNW 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 60 WNW 3 6 2566 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com