Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 42 37 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 37 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 36 NE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 35 NW 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 37 N 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 41 NW 2 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 44 W 2 3808 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 45 W 5 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 46 W 8 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 49 46 W 9 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 45 W 9 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 43 W 9 3680 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 42 W 8 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 41 W 6 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 38 SW 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 36 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 35 E 6 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 35 E 6 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 35 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 35 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 34 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 34 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 34 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 34 E 6 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 33 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 31 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 30 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 29 N 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 31 SE 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 35 SE 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 37 S 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 39 S 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 43 40 S 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 41 SW 5 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 45 41 SW 5 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 45 40 SW 5 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 39 NW 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 37 NW 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 35 NW 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 33 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 33 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 33 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 33 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 33 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 33 E 3 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 33 N 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 33 N 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 33 N 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 33 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 32 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 31 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 31 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 34 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 38 E 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 42 SW 2 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 45 SW 2 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 46 SW 2 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 46 SW 2 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 45 SW 2 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 44 SW 2 3808 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 43 W 2 3680 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 41 W 2 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 40 W 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 36 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 35 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 35 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 41 NE 2 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 45 SW 2 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 48 SW 2 4563 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 49 SW 2 4899 4063 63 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 52 49 SW 2 4899 4063 63 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 52 48 SW 2 4563 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 46 SW 2 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 45 W 2 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 43 W 2 3680 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 41 W 2 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 39 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 38 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 38 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 36 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 36 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 36 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 39 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 42 NE 2 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 46 S 3 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 48 S 3 4563 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 49 S 3 4899 4063 63 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 53 49 W 3 4899 4063 63 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 53 49 W 3 4899 4063 63 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 53 48 W 3 4563 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 47 W 2 4192 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 45 W 2 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 42 W 2 3552 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 40 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 39 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 40 NE 1 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 40 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 40 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 40 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 40 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 40 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 39 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 39 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 41 NE 2 3425 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 45 SW 3 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 47 SW 3 4192 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 49 SW 3 4899 4063 63 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 52 48 W 3 4563 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 48 W 3 4563 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 51 46 W 3 4064 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 45 W 2 3936 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 43 W 2 3680 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 40 W 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 38 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 37 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 38 N 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 38 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 37 NE 2 3353 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com