Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 50 45 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 45 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 45 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 46 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 48 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 49 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 51 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 51 E 9 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 51 SE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 51 SE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 50 SE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 49 NE 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 45 NE 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 43 NE 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 41 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 41 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 42 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 41 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 40 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 40 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 39 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 38 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 38 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 38 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 37 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 36 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 36 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 39 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 44 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 47 S 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 50 S 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 51 S 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 51 S 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 51 S 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 49 S 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 54 49 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 45 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 44 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 42 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 42 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 43 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 42 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 41 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 41 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 41 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 39 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 40 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 39 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 39 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 38 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 38 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 41 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 46 E 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 48 SE 7 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 52 SE 7 3922 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 53 SE 7 4143 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 53 SE 7 4143 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 52 SE 7 3922 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 51 SE 7 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 51 SE 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 47 SE 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 46 SE 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 44 SE 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 44 SE 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 45 SE 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 44 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 43 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 43 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 41 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 42 E 6 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 41 SE 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 41 SE 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 40 SE 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 40 SE 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 41 SE 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 43 SE 5 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 44 SW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 45 SW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 45 SW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 50 45 SW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 45 SW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 45 SW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 44 NW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 41 NW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 40 NW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 38 NW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 39 NW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 39 NW 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 38 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 37 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 38 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 37 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 36 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 37 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 36 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 36 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 35 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 35 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 37 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 41 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 45 SW 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 48 SW 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 48 SW 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 48 SW 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 48 SW 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 47 SW 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 46 N 1 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 43 N 1 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 42 N 1 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 40 N 1 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 41 N 1 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 41 N 1 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 40 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 39 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 40 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 39 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 38 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 39 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 38 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 38 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 37 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 37 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 40 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 46 NE 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 50 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 53 E 2 4143 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 54 E 2 4364 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 54 E 2 4364 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 54 E 2 4364 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 52 E 2 3922 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 51 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 48 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 46 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 44 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 44 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 44 E 2 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 43 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 42 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 43 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 42 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 41 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 E 3 3740 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com