Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 SE 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 SE 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 SE 5 5470 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 72 SE 6 6465 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SE 6 7778 6900 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 73 78 SE 6 9565 8327 1427 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 75 80 S 8 10623 9307 2407 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 77 81 S 8 10902 9541 2641 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 79 82 S 8 11817 9719 2819 White 13
5 PM Sun 79 81 SW 8 10902 9541 2641 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 78 79 SW 8 9744 9001 2101 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 8 9074 7294 394 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 5 7313 6900 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 5896 6900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 NW 1 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NW 1 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 NW 1 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 NE 3 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NE 3 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 3 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 SE 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 SE 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 SE 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 SE 5 5470 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 71 SE 5 6181 6900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 70 74 SE 5 7778 6900 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 72 77 SE 2 9340 7724 824 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 74 80 SE 2 10623 9307 2407 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 77 84 SE 2 12245 10853 3953 White 15
2 PM Mon 80 87 S 5 12885 12885 5985 White 17
3 PM Mon 82 88 S 5 13098 13098 6198 White 18
4 PM Mon 84 89 S 5 13311 13311 6411 White 19
5 PM Mon 84 86 SW 7 12672 12672 5772 White 16
6 PM Mon 83 84 SW 7 12245 10853 3953 White 15
7 PM Mon 80 80 SW 7 10623 9307 2407 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 7 9074 7294 394 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 7 7313 6900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 69 69 SW 7 5470 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 S 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 S 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 S 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 S 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 S 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 S 6 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 E 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 E 5 5470 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 E 5 5896 6900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 71 71 E 5 6181 6900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 71 73 E 5 7313 6900 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 73 76 E 5 9074 7294 394 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 74 79 S 6 9744 9001 2101 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 77 83 S 6 12031 10576 3676 White 14
1 PM Tue 79 86 S 6 12672 12672 5772 White 16
2 PM Tue 82 89 S 6 13311 13311 6411 White 19
3 PM Tue 84 90 S 6 13523 13523 6623 White 20
4 PM Tue 85 90 S 6 13523 13523 6623 White 20
5 PM Tue 85 88 W 7 13098 13098 6198 White 18
6 PM Tue 84 85 W 7 12459 11292 4392 White 15
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 7 10902 9541 2641 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 9565 8327 1427 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 7778 6900 0 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 71 71 W 7 6181 6900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 68 68 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 S 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 E 2 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 E 2 5470 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 E 2 5896 6900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 71 72 E 2 6465 6900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 72 74 E 2 7778 6900 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 74 77 E 2 9340 7724 824 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 76 81 S 6 10902 9541 2641 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 78 84 S 6 12245 10853 3953 White 15
1 PM Wed 80 87 S 6 12885 12885 5985 White 17
2 PM Wed 83 89 S 6 13311 13311 6411 White 19
3 PM Wed 84 90 S 6 13523 13523 6623 White 20
4 PM Wed 85 89 S 6 13311 13311 6411 White 19
5 PM Wed 85 88 W 8 13098 13098 6198 White 18
6 PM Wed 83 84 W 8 12245 10853 3953 White 15
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 10623 9307 2407 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 77 77 W 8 9340 7724 824 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 7313 6900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 8 5896 6900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 67 67 NW 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 NE 2 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NE 2 5470 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NE 2 5896 6900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 71 72 NE 2 6465 6900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 72 74 NE 2 7778 6900 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 73 76 NE 2 9074 7294 394 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 75 80 NW 7 10623 9307 2407 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 78 85 NW 7 12459 11292 4392 White 15
1 PM Thu 80 87 NW 7 12885 12885 5985 White 17
2 PM Thu 82 89 NW 7 13311 13311 6411 White 19
3 PM Thu 84 90 NW 7 13523 13523 6623 White 20
4 PM Thu 85 90 NW 7 13523 13523 6623 White 20
5 PM Thu 85 88 W 10 13098 13098 6198 White 18
6 PM Thu 83 84 W 10 12245 10853 3953 White 15
7 PM Thu 81 81 W 10 10902 9541 2641 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 78 78 W 10 9565 8327 1427 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 7778 6900 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 10 6181 6900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 68 68 NW 8 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NW 8 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 NW 8 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NW 8 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NW 8 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 8 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 N 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 N 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 N 5 6181 6900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 71 73 N 5 7313 6900 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 73 77 N 5 9340 7724 824 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 76 81 NW 6 10902 9541 2641 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 78 84 NW 6 12245 10853 3953 White 15
1 PM Fri 80 87 NW 6 12885 12885 5985 White 17
2 PM Fri 81 88 NW 6 13098 13098 6198 White 18
3 PM Fri 82 88 NW 6 13098 13098 6198 White 18
4 PM Fri 83 88 NW 6 13098 13098 6198 White 18
5 PM Fri 83 86 W 8 12672 12672 5772 White 16
6 PM Fri 82 83 W 8 12031 10576 3676 White 14
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 8 10623 9307 2407 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 8 9565 8327 1427 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 75 75 W 8 8382 6900 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 8 7313 6900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 70 70 N 7 5896 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 N 7 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 N 7 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 N 7 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 7 5066 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 7 5066 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com