Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

22 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 34 34 E 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 E 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 E 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 E 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 E 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 35 E 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 36 36 E 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 36 36 E 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 36 36 E 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 35 35 E 12 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 35 35 E 12 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 35 35 E 12 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 SW 1 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 SW 1 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 SW 1 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NW 5 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 NW 5 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 5 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NW 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NW 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NW 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 39 W 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 41 W 7 6254 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 42 W 7 6747 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 43 W 7 7037 6900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 42 43 W 7 7037 6900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 42 43 W 7 7037 6900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 42 43 W 6 7037 6900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 41 41 W 6 6254 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 W 6 5749 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 W 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 W 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 W 6 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 E 2 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 E 2 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 E 2 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 E 2 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 E 2 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 E 2 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 36 E 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 39 SE 12 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 40 SE 12 5749 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 43 SE 12 7037 6900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 42 45 SE 12 8282 6900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 43 45 SE 12 8282 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 44 45 SE 12 8282 6900 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 44 44 SE 13 7778 6900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 44 44 SE 13 7778 6900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 43 43 SE 13 7037 6900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 42 42 SE 13 6747 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SE 13 6254 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 SE 13 5749 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 SE 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 SE 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 SE 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SE 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SE 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 SE 17 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 SE 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 SE 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 SE 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 SE 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 35 SE 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 36 SE 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 37 37 S 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 37 37 S 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 38 38 S 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 38 38 S 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 39 39 S 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 39 S 13 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 38 SE 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 38 38 SE 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 38 38 SE 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 38 SE 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 39 39 SE 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 SE 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 39 39 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 39 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 S 8 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 37 S 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 38 S 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 38 S 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 39 39 S 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 S 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 S 14 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 39 39 SW 10 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 SW 10 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 SW 10 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 SW 10 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 SW 10 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 SW 10 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 S 9 5233 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com