Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 35 35 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 SE 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 SE 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 SE 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 44 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 45 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 45 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 S 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 S 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 S 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 SE 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 SE 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 SE 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 SE 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 44 SE 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 S 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 S 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 46 46 S 8 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 46 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 SE 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 SE 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 SE 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SE 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SE 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 SE 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 49 S 10 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 50 S 10 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 51 S 10 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 51 S 10 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 52 S 10 5430 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 52 S 10 5430 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 S 9 5430 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 S 9 5430 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 S 9 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 S 9 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 SE 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 SE 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SE 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 SE 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SE 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SE 7 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 S 9 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 S 9 5430 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 S 9 5554 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 55 S 7 6194 6900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 56 56 S 7 6446 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 57 57 S 7 6696 6900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 57 57 S 7 6696 6900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 58 58 S 7 6973 6900 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 58 58 S 7 6973 6900 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 58 58 S 7 6973 6900 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 57 57 S 7 6696 6900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 56 56 S 7 6446 6900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 55 55 S 7 6194 6900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 7 5679 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 S 7 5430 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 S 6 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 S 6 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 S 6 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 48 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 51 SW 3 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 5554 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 54 SW 3 5679 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 SW 3 6194 6900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 55 55 SW 5 6194 6900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 5 5679 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 5 5554 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 SW 5 5305 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 SW 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 SW 5 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 5181 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 SW 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 S 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 S 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 S 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 S 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 S 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 5138 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com