Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 W 7 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 62 W 7 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 65 W 7 5411 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 70 W 8 7466 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 66 73 W 8 9242 7424 524 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 67 75 W 8 10314 8611 1711 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 69 77 W 12 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 69 76 W 12 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 70 75 W 12 10314 8611 1711 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 70 74 W 12 9795 8028 1128 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 69 71 W 12 8080 6900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 12 6247 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 NW 7 5970 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 7 5411 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 7 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 60 W 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 63 W 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 66 W 3 5691 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 70 W 7 7466 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 67 73 W 7 9242 7424 524 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 69 76 W 7 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 70 77 W 9 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 71 77 W 9 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 72 77 W 9 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 72 74 W 12 9795 8028 1128 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 72 73 W 12 9242 7424 524 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 8080 6900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 7 6825 6900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 7 6247 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 5691 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 6 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 6 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 NE 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 NE 5 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 68 NE 5 6247 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 72 S 5 8671 6900 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 68 75 S 5 10314 8611 1711 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 70 78 S 5 10792 10247 3347 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 72 80 S 5 11065 10607 3707 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 73 80 S 5 11065 10607 3707 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 74 79 S 5 10937 10450 3550 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 74 77 W 6 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 73 75 W 6 10314 8611 1711 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 8671 6900 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 7466 6900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 6247 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 6 5691 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 N 3 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 N 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 N 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 63 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 67 E 5 5970 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 71 SE 5 8080 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 66 73 SE 5 9242 7424 524 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 68 76 SE 5 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 69 77 SE 5 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 70 77 SE 5 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 71 76 SE 5 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 71 74 SW 5 9795 8028 1128 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 71 72 SW 5 8671 6900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 7466 6900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 6825 6900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 5 5970 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 5691 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 5 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 E 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 64 E 5 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 68 E 5 6247 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 72 SE 5 8671 6900 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 67 74 SE 5 9795 8028 1128 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 69 77 SE 5 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 70 78 SE 5 10792 10247 3347 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 70 77 SE 5 10634 9718 2818 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 71 76 SE 5 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 71 74 SW 3 9795 8028 1128 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 71 72 SW 3 8671 6900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 3 7466 6900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 3 6825 6900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 3 5970 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 3 5691 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 5 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 NE 3 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 NE 3 5411 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 69 NE 3 6825 6900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 67 73 S 6 9242 7424 524 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 69 76 S 6 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 70 78 S 6 10792 10247 3347 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 71 79 S 6 10937 10450 3550 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 72 79 S 6 10937 10450 3550 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 73 78 S 6 10792 10247 3347 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 73 76 SW 5 10476 9173 2273 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 73 74 SW 5 9795 8028 1128 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 5 8671 6900 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 5 8080 6900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 6825 6900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 5 6247 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 NW 5 5691 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NW 5 5130 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NW 5 4931 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com