Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 42 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 43 45 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 46 49 E 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 49 53 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 50 54 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 52 56 ENE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 53 56 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 54 55 SE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 55 55 SW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 56 56 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 54 54 NW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 52 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 47 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 45 45 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 39 39 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 37 37 NE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 38 NE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 39 41 NE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 42 45 NNE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 44 48 NNE 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 45 50 NNE 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 47 51 NNE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 49 52 NE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 51 NNE 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 50 50 NNE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 50 NNE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 48 48 NE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 46 46 NE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 NE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 42 42 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 40 40 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 38 38 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 36 36 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 34 34 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 33 33 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 34 34 E 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 34 34 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 35 36 E 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 39 41 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 44 47 E 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 49 53 E 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 51 56 E 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 52 56 E 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 54 57 E 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 54 55 E 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 54 E 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 55 55 E 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 53 53 E 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 52 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 51 51 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 49 49 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 46 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 44 44 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com