Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 71 71 NW 9 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 69 69 W 8 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 74 74 W 8 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 77 78 SW 9 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 80 83 SW 13 13274 12235 6067 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 83 88 SW 17 15879 13672 7504 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 85 92 SW 20 17569 16133 9965 White 26
12 Noon Tue 87 95 SW 22 18182 18182 12014 White 29
1 PM Tue 88 97 SW 24 18590 18590 12422 White 31
2 PM Tue 89 97 SW 26 18590 18590 12422 White 31
3 PM Tue 89 96 SW 26 18386 18386 12218 White 30
4 PM Tue 89 94 SW 28 17978 17137 10969 White 28
5 PM Tue 88 91 SW 26 17362 15742 9574 White 25
6 PM Tue 87 88 SW 25 15879 13672 7504 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 84 84 SW 24 13490 12641 6473 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 80 80 SW 22 12326 11415 5247 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 18 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 17 10195 8924 2756 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 17 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 W 16 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 69 69 W 15 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 68 68 W 14 6701 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 67 67 W 13 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 13 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 66 66 W 13 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 65 65 W 13 5964 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 SW 14 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 73 74 SW 14 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 75 78 SW 16 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 78 83 SW 17 13274 12235 6067 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 82 89 SW 20 16274 14429 8261 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 84 92 SW 21 17569 16133 9965 White 26
1 PM Wed 86 95 SW 21 18182 18182 12014 White 29
2 PM Wed 87 95 SW 21 18182 18182 12014 White 29
3 PM Wed 88 95 SW 21 18182 18182 12014 White 29
4 PM Wed 88 93 SW 21 17774 16519 10351 White 27
5 PM Wed 87 90 SW 20 16662 15136 8968 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 84 85 SW 17 13889 13004 6836 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 14 12326 11415 5247 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 77 77 SW 12 11463 9737 3569 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 12 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 73 73 W 12 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 12 8971 7236 1068 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 12 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 10 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 68 68 SW 10 6701 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 10 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 66 66 W 10 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 66 66 W 10 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 68 68 W 12 6701 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 70 70 SW 12 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 73 74 SW 13 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 76 78 SW 14 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 78 82 SW 14 13058 11907 5739 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 80 85 SW 15 13889 13004 6836 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SW 16 16274 14429 8261 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 84 91 SW 17 17362 15742 9574 White 25
2 PM Thu 85 92 SW 18 17569 16133 9965 White 26
3 PM Thu 86 92 SW 20 17569 16133 9965 White 26
4 PM Thu 86 90 SW 20 16662 15136 8968 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 18 15477 13434 7266 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 82 83 SW 16 13274 12235 6067 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 14 11959 11167 4999 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 11213 9334 3166 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 12 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 73 73 W 13 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 13 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 W 13 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 69 69 W 12 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 67 67 W 10 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 68 68 W 9 6701 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 70 70 SW 9 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 73 74 SW 10 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 75 78 SW 12 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 78 83 SW 13 13274 12235 6067 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 80 86 SW 14 14649 13219 7051 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 82 90 SW 15 16662 15136 8968 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 84 92 SW 17 17569 16133 9965 White 26
2 PM Fri 85 93 SW 18 17774 16519 10351 White 27
3 PM Fri 86 92 SW 20 17569 16133 9965 White 26
4 PM Fri 86 90 SW 20 16662 15136 8968 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 85 88 SW 18 15879 13672 7504 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 83 84 SW 17 13490 12641 6473 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 15 12326 11415 5247 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 14 11463 9737 3569 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 74 74 SW 13 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 12 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 71 71 W 12 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 W 12 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 69 69 W 12 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 67 67 W 12 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 66 66 W 10 6376 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 65 65 SW 9 5964 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 SW 8 5964 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 SW 9 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 69 69 SW 10 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 72 73 SW 12 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 75 78 SW 13 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 78 83 SW 13 13274 12235 6067 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 80 87 SW 14 15477 13434 7266 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 82 90 SW 15 16662 15136 8968 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 83 92 SW 15 17569 16133 9965 White 26
2 PM Sat 85 93 SW 16 17774 16519 10351 White 27
3 PM Sat 86 92 SW 16 17569 16133 9965 White 26
4 PM Sat 86 90 SW 16 16662 15136 8968 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 85 87 SW 16 15477 13434 7266 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 82 83 SW 15 13274 12235 6067 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 14 11959 11167 4999 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 13 11213 9334 3166 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 13 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 73 73 W 13 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 72 72 W 12 8971 7236 1068 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 W 9 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 70 70 SW 6 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 3 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 68 68 SW 2 6701 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 67 67 S 2 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 6539 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 69 69 S 5 7309 6371 203 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 71 71 S 6 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 74 75 S 7 10195 8924 2756 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 77 80 S 8 12326 11415 5247 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 80 85 S 10 13889 13004 6836 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 82 88 S 12 15879 13672 7504 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 84 91 S 13 17362 15742 9574 White 25
1 PM Sun 86 94 S 14 17978 17137 10969 White 28
2 PM Sun 87 94 S 15 17978 17137 10969 White 28
3 PM Sun 87 93 S 16 17774 16519 10351 White 27
4 PM Sun 87 91 S 16 17362 15742 9574 White 25
5 PM Sun 86 88 SW 16 15879 13672 7504 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 83 84 SW 15 13490 12641 6473 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 13 12737 11661 5493 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 10 11712 10135 3967 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 9 11213 9334 3166 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 75 75 S 9 10195 8924 2756 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 74 74 S 8 9793 8508 2340 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 S 7 9385 8084 1916 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 72 72 S 7 8971 7236 1068 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 71 71 S 6 8549 6695 527 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 70 70 S 6 8121 6533 365 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 70 70 S 6 8121 6533 365 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com