Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 E 5 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 SE 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 SE 5 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 54 S 7 6375 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 57 SW 8 9929 6322 154 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 56 57 SW 9 9929 6322 154 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 57 57 SW 9 9929 6322 154 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 57 57 SW 9 9929 6322 154 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 50 50 SW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 SW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 14 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 SW 15 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 SW 17 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 SW 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 20 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 20 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 W 22 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 W 23 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 SW 24 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 SW 25 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 50 SW 26 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 51 SW 26 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 SW 25 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 SW 24 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 51 SW 23 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 W 23 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 W 23 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 W 23 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 W 22 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 22 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 W 20 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 W 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 W 17 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 W 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 W 20 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 W 21 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 37 NW 20 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 39 NW 20 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 39 NW 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 40 NW 18 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 41 NW 17 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 40 40 NW 16 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 NW 15 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 NW 14 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 NW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 NW 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 NW 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 NW 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 N 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 N 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 W 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 W 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 37 SW 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 SW 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 40 SW 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 40 SW 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 42 SW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 41 42 SW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 W 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 W 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 W 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 W 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 W 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 NW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 NW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 NW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 NW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 NW 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 W 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 SW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 37 SW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 41 SW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 43 SW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 44 SW 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 43 44 W 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 W 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 44 44 W 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 W 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 NW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 NW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 NW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 NW 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 N 12 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 N 10 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 NW 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NW 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 W 6 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 W 5 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 40 SW 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 45 SW 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 46 W 3 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 49 W 5 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 48 W 6 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 W 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 W 7 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 W 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 NW 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 NW 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 N 9 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 N 8 5266 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com