Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 12 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 13 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 13 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 13 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 13 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 12 7100 6502 334 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 47 49 NE 12 7882 7284 1116 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 50 52 NE 10 8464 7866 1698 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 50 52 NE 9 8464 7866 1698 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 51 53 NE 9 8657 8059 1891 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 50 51 NE 8 8270 7672 1504 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 50 50 NE 9 8076 7478 1310 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 45 45 NE 9 7100 6502 334 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 42 42 NE 10 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 41 41 NE 12 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 42 42 NE 12 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 42 42 NE 12 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 42 42 NE 12 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 41 41 NE 12 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 39 39 NE 10 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 NE 10 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 NE 10 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 NE 10 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NE 10 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NE 9 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NE 9 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 NE 8 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NE 8 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 NE 7 6707 6168 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 45 46 E 6 7296 6698 530 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 47 48 E 5 7687 7089 921 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 50 52 E 5 8464 7866 1698 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 51 53 SE 5 8657 8059 1891 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 51 53 S 5 8657 8059 1891 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 50 51 S 3 8270 7672 1504 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 47 47 SW 3 7492 6894 726 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 45 45 SW 3 7100 6502 334 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 43 43 W 3 6707 6168 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 42 42 W 3 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 41 41 NW 6 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NW 6 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 40 40 NW 6 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 41 41 NW 6 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 41 41 N 6 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 40 40 N 6 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 8 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 45 46 N 9 7296 6698 530 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 49 51 N 9 8270 7672 1504 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 9 8657 8059 1891 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 52 54 NE 9 8850 8252 2084 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 52 54 NE 9 8850 8252 2084 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 50 51 NE 9 8270 7672 1504 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 48 48 NE 9 7687 7089 921 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 46 46 NE 10 7296 6698 530 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 44 44 NE 10 6904 6306 138 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 42 42 NE 12 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 41 41 NE 13 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 40 40 NE 13 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 39 39 NE 13 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 13 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 13 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 13 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 13 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 12 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 12 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 12 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NE 10 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NE 10 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 NE 10 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 12 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 NE 12 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 43 45 NE 13 7100 6502 334 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 45 47 NE 13 7492 6894 726 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 46 48 NE 13 7687 7089 921 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 46 48 NE 12 7687 7089 921 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 45 46 NE 12 7296 6698 530 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 43 43 NE 13 6707 6168 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 42 42 NE 13 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 40 40 NE 13 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 39 39 NE 14 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 NE 15 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 NE 16 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 NE 17 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NE 17 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NE 17 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 NE 17 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NE 17 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 NE 16 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 NE 16 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 NE 15 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 NE 15 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 NE 15 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 NE 14 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 NE 14 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 39 NE 14 5931 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 42 NE 14 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 41 43 NE 14 6707 6168 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 42 44 NE 13 6904 6306 138 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 43 45 NE 13 7100 6502 334 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 43 44 NE 12 6904 6306 138 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 42 42 NE 12 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 41 41 NE 10 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 38 38 NE 10 5820 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 NE 9 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 NE 9 5351 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 NE 9 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 41 NE 9 6312 6168 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 44 46 NE 10 7296 6698 530 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 46 48 NE 10 7687 7089 921 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 47 49 NE 9 7882 7284 1116 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 47 49 NE 9 7882 7284 1116 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 46 47 NE 9 7492 6894 726 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 44 44 NE 9 6904 6306 138 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 42 42 NE 9 6509 6168 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 40 40 NE 8 6114 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 37 37 NE 8 5709 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 NE 8 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 NE 9 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 NE 9 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 NE 9 5598 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 NE 9 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NE 9 5487 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 9 5376 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com