Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 52 52 NW 7 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 NW 7 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NW 3 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 61 62 E 3 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 62 64 SW 3 7449 6630 462 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 65 67 S 5 7852 7440 1272 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 66 68 SW 6 8064 7574 1406 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 66 68 W 6 8064 7574 1406 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 65 66 W 6 7717 7214 1046 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 7583 6923 755 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 62 62 W 5 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 56 56 NW 3 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 55 55 NW 3 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 3 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 55 55 NW 3 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 3 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NW 3 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NW 6 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 5524 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 6 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 5524 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SE 5 5524 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 SE 5 5977 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 6345 6168 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 61 61 SE 6 6642 6168 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 63 63 SE 7 7231 6336 168 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 64 64 S 8 7449 6630 462 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 7449 6630 462 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 7231 6336 168 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 60 60 SW 7 6345 6168 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 58 58 SW 6 5977 6168 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 56 56 SW 6 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 5524 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 6 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 7 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 7 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 7 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 8 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 W 8 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 8 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 8 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 7 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 NE 7 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NE 6 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 E 6 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 SE 6 5850 6168 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 58 59 S 6 6104 6168 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 63 S 6 7231 6336 168 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 62 64 SW 7 7449 6630 462 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 62 64 SW 7 7449 6630 462 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 61 62 W 7 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 60 60 N 6 6345 6168 0 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 58 58 NE 6 5977 6168 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 56 56 NE 6 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 5524 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 N 5 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 N 6 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 N 6 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 7 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NW 7 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 N 7 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 N 6 5850 6168 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 60 62 N 6 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 62 65 N 6 7583 6923 755 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 63 66 N 7 7717 7214 1046 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 63 65 N 7 7583 6923 755 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 62 63 N 7 7231 6336 168 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 61 61 N 7 6642 6168 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 59 59 N 7 6104 6168 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 55 55 N 8 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 8 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 9 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 9 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 10 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 NE 12 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NE 12 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 13 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 13 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 13 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 13 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 N 10 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 9 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 N 8 6104 6168 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 59 62 N 8 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 60 63 N 7 7231 6336 168 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 60 62 N 7 6937 6168 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 59 60 N 7 6345 6168 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 58 58 NE 6 5977 6168 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 56 56 NE 6 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 53 53 NE 6 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 7 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 7 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 8 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 5325 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NE 7 5443 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 E 6 5850 6168 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 59 61 E 6 6642 6168 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 62 65 E 6 7583 6923 755 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 63 66 E 5 7717 7214 1046 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 63 65 E 5 7583 6923 755 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 62 63 E 5 7231 6336 168 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 61 61 S 3 6642 6168 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 58 58 S 3 5977 6168 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 56 56 S 3 5722 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 53 53 SW 5 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 W 5 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 5 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 6 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 6 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 7 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 8 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 9 5361 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 SW 9 5361 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com