Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 58 58 W 24 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 59 59 W 21 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
7 AM Tue 58 58 W 18 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 61 61 W 15 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 63 65 W 13 12818 11913 5745 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 65 68 W 12 13307 12778 6610 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 67 72 W 10 13957 13426 7258 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 69 75 W 12 14442 13910 7742 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 71 77 SW 13 14770 14232 8064 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 72 78 SW 14 14941 14392 8224 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 72 76 SW 14 14603 14071 7903 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 72 74 SW 14 14280 13749 7581 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 71 72 SW 14 13957 13426 7258 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 70 70 W 13 13632 13102 6934 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 12 12981 12393 6225 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 10 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 9 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 W 8 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 9 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 59 59 W 9 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 58 58 SW 10 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 10 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 58 58 SW 10 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 10 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 63 63 SW 10 12474 10913 4745 White 17
9 AM Wed 66 68 SW 10 13307 12778 6610 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 68 71 SW 10 13795 13264 7096 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 12 14442 13910 7742 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 73 79 SW 13 15112 14552 8384 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 74 80 SW 14 15398 14715 8547 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 75 80 SW 15 15398 14715 8547 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 75 79 SW 16 15112 14552 8384 Blue 33
4 PM Wed 75 77 SW 17 14770 14232 8064 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 73 74 SW 17 14280 13749 7581 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 17 13795 13264 7096 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 16 13307 12778 6610 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 16 12818 11913 5745 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 16 12474 10913 4745 White 17
10 PM Wed 62 62 SW 15 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 15 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 15 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 15 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 15 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 15 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 15 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 57 57 SW 15 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 15 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 15 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 61 61 SW 15 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 62 64 SW 16 12655 11420 5252 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 64 67 SW 16 13144 12615 6447 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 66 71 SW 17 13795 13264 7096 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 68 74 SW 17 14280 13749 7581 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 70 76 SW 17 14603 14071 7903 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 17 14770 14232 8064 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 71 75 SW 17 14442 13910 7742 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 70 72 SW 17 13957 13426 7258 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 17 13632 13102 6934 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 16 13144 12615 6447 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 14 12655 11420 5252 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 62 62 SW 12 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 9 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 9 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 8 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 9916 9079 2911 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 8 9749 8634 2466 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 9553 8186 2018 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 9553 8186 2018 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 55 55 W 8 9749 8634 2466 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 7 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 59 59 NW 7 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 61 63 NW 7 12474 10913 4745 White 17
10 AM Fri 63 66 NW 8 12981 12393 6225 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 65 70 NW 9 13632 13102 6934 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 66 72 NW 10 13957 13426 7258 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 67 73 NW 12 14118 13587 7419 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 68 74 NW 12 14280 13749 7581 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 69 73 NW 12 14118 13587 7419 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 70 72 NW 12 13957 13426 7258 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 69 70 NW 10 13632 13102 6934 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 67 67 NW 9 13144 12615 6447 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 8 12655 11420 5252 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 8 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 9 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 59 59 NW 9 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NW 9 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 8 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 8 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 8 9916 9079 2911 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 9 9916 9079 2911 Blue 11
5 AM Sat 56 56 N 9 9916 9079 2911 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 57 57 N 9 10084 9497 3329 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 61 61 NE 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 64 66 NE 9 12981 12393 6225 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 66 69 N 9 13470 12940 6772 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 68 73 N 10 14118 13587 7419 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 70 76 NE 10 14603 14071 7903 Blue 30
1 PM Sat 71 77 E 9 14770 14232 8064 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 72 77 SE 9 14770 14232 8064 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 73 77 S 9 14770 14232 8064 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 74 76 SW 9 14603 14071 7903 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 73 74 SW 9 14280 13749 7581 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 13632 13102 6934 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 66 66 NW 8 12981 12393 6225 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 63 63 NW 8 12474 10913 4745 White 17
9 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 61 61 NW 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 61 61 NW 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NW 8 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 8 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 8 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 58 58 N 9 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 9 10364 9725 3557 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 8 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
8 AM Sun 64 64 N 8 12655 11420 5252 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 67 68 NE 9 13307 12778 6610 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 69 71 E 10 13795 13264 7096 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 72 75 E 12 14442 13910 7742 Blue 29
12 Noon Sun 73 76 SE 13 14603 14071 7903 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 75 79 S 14 15112 14552 8384 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 75 79 S 15 15112 14552 8384 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 76 79 S 17 15112 14552 8384 Blue 33
4 PM Sun 76 78 SW 18 14941 14392 8224 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 74 75 SW 20 14442 13910 7742 Blue 29
6 PM Sun 72 72 SW 18 13957 13426 7258 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 68 68 S 16 13307 12778 6610 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 65 65 S 15 12818 11913 5745 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 64 64 S 15 12655 11420 5252 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 63 63 S 15 12474 10913 4745 White 17
11 PM Sun 63 63 S 16 12474 10913 4745 White 17
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 16 12474 10913 4745 White 17
1 AM Mon 62 62 S 16 12020 10567 4399 Blue 16
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 17 11522 10324 4156 Blue 15
3 AM Mon 60 60 S 20 11008 10058 3890 Blue 14
4 AM Mon 59 59 S 22 10609 9892 3724 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com