Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 43 43 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 43 43 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 41 41 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 41 41 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 40 40 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 46 46 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 46 46 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 46 46 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 46 46 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 46 46 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 44 44 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 44 44 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 44 44 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 44 44 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 44 44 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 44 44 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 43 43 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 41 41 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 38 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 36 36 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 36 36 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 40 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 42 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 43 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 45 47 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 46 48 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 46 47 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 43 43 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 40 40 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 39 39 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 39 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 45 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 47 48 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 49 51 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 50 52 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 51 53 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 51 52 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 49 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 47 47 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 45 45 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 44 44 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 46 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 51 52 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 53 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 52 53 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 52 52 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 51 51 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 50 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 48 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 46 46 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 45 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 39 39 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 39 39 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 41 NW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 43 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 43 45 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 44 46 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 44 46 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 44 45 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 43 43 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 42 42 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 41 41 NW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 40 40 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 38 38 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 38 38 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 37 37 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 35 35 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 34 34 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 33 33 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 33 33 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 32 32 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 32 32 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 35 35 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 38 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 40 42 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 41 43 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 42 44 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 43 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 43 44 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 43 43 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 40 40 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 38 38 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 36 36 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 35 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 34 34 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com