Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 5 5842 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 7368 6168 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 7813 6168 0 White 3
8 AM Tue 58 59 NE 5 8477 8477 2309 White 6
9 AM Tue 60 62 NE 6 9142 9142 2974 White 9
10 AM Tue 62 65 SE 7 9817 9817 3649 White 12
11 AM Tue 63 67 SE 8 10255 10255 4087 White 14
12 Noon Tue 64 69 SE 8 10681 10681 4513 White 16
1 PM Tue 65 70 S 7 10895 10895 4727 White 17
2 PM Tue 66 70 S 7 10895 10895 4727 White 17
3 PM Tue 67 70 S 7 10895 10895 4727 White 17
4 PM Tue 68 70 S 7 10895 10895 4727 White 17
5 PM Tue 68 69 S 7 10681 10681 4513 White 16
6 PM Tue 67 67 S 6 10255 10255 4087 White 14
7 PM Tue 66 66 S 6 10041 10041 3873 White 13
8 PM Tue 65 65 S 5 9817 9817 3649 White 12
9 PM Tue 63 63 S 5 9367 9367 3199 White 10
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 6 8918 8918 2750 White 8
11 PM Tue 60 60 SW 6 8698 8698 2530 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SW 6 8477 8477 2309 White 6
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 8255 8255 2087 White 5
2 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 7813 6168 0 White 3
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 6 7590 6168 0 White 2
4 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 7368 6168 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 7368 6168 0 White 1
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 7813 6168 0 White 3
7 AM Wed 58 58 S 5 8255 8255 2087 White 5
8 AM Wed 61 62 S 6 9142 9142 2974 White 9
9 AM Wed 63 66 S 7 10041 10041 3873 White 13
10 AM Wed 64 69 S 8 10681 10681 4513 White 16
11 AM Wed 65 71 SE 9 11108 11108 4940 White 18
12 Noon Wed 67 74 S 10 11743 11743 5575 White 21
1 PM Wed 68 75 S 10 11953 11953 5785 White 22
2 PM Wed 70 77 S 10 12372 12372 6204 White 24
3 PM Wed 71 76 S 10 12163 12163 5995 White 23
4 PM Wed 73 76 S 10 12163 12163 5995 White 23
5 PM Wed 73 75 S 10 11953 11953 5785 White 22
6 PM Wed 72 72 S 9 11320 11320 5152 White 19
7 PM Wed 69 69 S 8 10681 10681 4513 White 16
8 PM Wed 67 67 SW 7 10255 10255 4087 White 14
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 7 9817 9817 3649 White 12
10 PM Wed 63 63 S 6 9367 9367 3199 White 10
11 PM Wed 62 62 S 6 9142 9142 2974 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 6 8698 8698 2530 White 7
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 5 8477 8477 2309 White 6
2 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 8034 8034 1866 White 4
3 AM Thu 55 55 SW 5 7590 6168 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 54 54 SW 3 7368 6168 0 White 1
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 7368 6168 0 White 1
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 3 7813 6168 0 White 3
7 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 8477 8477 2309 White 6
8 AM Thu 61 63 S 6 9367 9367 3199 White 10
9 AM Thu 63 66 S 8 10041 10041 3873 White 13
10 AM Thu 65 70 S 9 10895 10895 4727 White 17
11 AM Thu 66 73 S 12 11532 11532 5364 White 20
12 Noon Thu 68 76 S 13 12163 12163 5995 White 23
1 PM Thu 71 79 S 14 12789 12789 6621 White 26
2 PM Thu 73 80 S 14 12996 12996 6828 White 27
3 PM Thu 75 81 S 15 13204 13204 7036 White 28
4 PM Thu 76 80 S 15 12996 12996 6828 White 27
5 PM Thu 76 78 S 15 12581 12581 6413 White 25
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 11743 11743 5575 White 21
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 15 11320 11320 5152 White 19
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 14 10681 10681 4513 White 16
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 10469 10469 4301 White 15
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 10041 10041 3873 White 13
11 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 9592 9592 3424 White 11
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 9 9142 9142 2974 White 9
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 9 8698 8698 2530 White 7
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 9 8255 8255 2087 White 5
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 8034 8034 1866 White 4
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 7813 6168 0 White 3
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 7813 6168 0 White 3
6 AM Fri 57 57 SW 9 8034 8034 1866 White 4
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 8255 8255 2087 White 5
8 AM Fri 59 61 SW 12 8918 8918 2750 White 8
9 AM Fri 61 64 SW 13 9592 9592 3424 White 11
10 AM Fri 63 68 SW 14 10469 10469 4301 White 15
11 AM Fri 65 71 SW 15 11108 11108 4940 White 18
12 Noon Fri 68 75 SW 16 11953 11953 5785 White 22
1 PM Fri 70 77 SW 18 12372 12372 6204 White 24
2 PM Fri 72 79 SW 20 12789 12789 6621 White 26
3 PM Fri 73 78 SW 21 12581 12581 6413 White 25
4 PM Fri 74 77 SW 22 12372 12372 6204 White 24
5 PM Fri 74 76 SW 23 12163 12163 5995 White 23
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 23 11320 11320 5152 White 19
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 22 10895 10895 4727 White 17
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 21 10469 10469 4301 White 15
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 20 9817 9817 3649 White 12
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 20 9142 9142 2974 White 9
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 18 8477 8477 2309 White 6
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 18 8034 8034 1866 White 4
1 AM Sat 55 55 W 20 7590 6168 0 White 2
2 AM Sat 53 53 W 20 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 5842 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 SW 21 5531 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 SW 21 5531 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SW 20 5531 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 SW 18 5842 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 54 SW 17 7368 6168 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 54 57 SW 16 8034 8034 1866 White 4
10 AM Sat 56 61 SW 16 8918 8918 2750 White 8
11 AM Sat 58 64 SW 15 9592 9592 3424 White 11
12 Noon Sat 60 67 SW 15 10255 10255 4087 White 14
1 PM Sat 63 70 W 16 10895 10895 4727 White 17
2 PM Sat 65 71 W 17 11108 11108 4940 White 18
3 PM Sat 67 72 W 18 11320 11320 5152 White 19
4 PM Sat 68 71 W 20 11108 11108 4940 White 18
5 PM Sat 68 70 W 20 10895 10895 4727 White 17
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 18 10255 10255 4087 White 14
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 17 10041 10041 3873 White 13
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 16 9592 9592 3424 White 11
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 14 8918 8918 2750 White 8
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 13 8477 8477 2309 White 6
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 7813 6168 0 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 W 12 7368 6168 0 White 1
1 AM Sun 52 52 W 13 5842 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 14 5531 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 W 15 5394 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 W 16 5394 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NW 16 5394 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NW 16 5531 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 W 15 5842 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 W 14 7590 6168 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 56 59 W 13 8477 8477 2309 White 6
10 AM Sun 58 63 W 12 9367 9367 3199 White 10
11 AM Sun 61 67 W 12 10255 10255 4087 White 14
12 Noon Sun 63 70 W 12 10895 10895 4727 White 17
1 PM Sun 66 73 W 13 11532 11532 5364 White 20
2 PM Sun 68 75 W 14 11953 11953 5785 White 22
3 PM Sun 70 75 W 15 11953 11953 5785 White 22
4 PM Sun 71 74 W 15 11743 11743 5575 White 21
5 PM Sun 72 74 W 15 11743 11743 5575 White 21
6 PM Sun 72 72 NW 14 11320 11320 5152 White 19
7 PM Sun 70 70 NW 12 10895 10895 4727 White 17
8 PM Sun 69 69 NW 9 10681 10681 4513 White 16
9 PM Sun 67 67 NW 7 10255 10255 4087 White 14
10 PM Sun 64 64 NW 5 9592 9592 3424 White 11
11 PM Sun 62 62 NW 3 9142 9142 2974 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NW 3 8698 8698 2530 White 7
1 AM Mon 58 58 NW 3 8255 8255 2087 White 5
2 AM Mon 57 57 NW 3 8034 8034 1866 White 4
3 AM Mon 56 56 NW 5 7813 6168 0 White 3
4 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 7813 6168 0 White 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com