Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 47 47 N 14 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 14 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 15 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 15 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 NE 15 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 60 NE 16 11446 10904 4736 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 54 58 NE 16 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 57 62 NE 16 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 58 63 NE 15 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 59 64 NE 14 11821 11527 5359 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 60 63 NE 13 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 61 63 NE 12 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 64 65 NE 12 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 62 62 NE 12 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 59 59 NE 12 11346 9889 3721 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 57 57 NE 13 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 55 55 NE 14 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 16 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 17 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 17 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NE 17 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 16 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 16 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 15 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 15 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 16 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 16 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 17 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 17 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 60 62 NE 17 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 57 61 NE 17 11547 11107 4939 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 60 65 NE 16 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 61 66 NE 14 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 62 66 NE 13 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 63 66 NE 12 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 64 66 NE 12 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 67 67 NE 10 12346 11798 5630 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 65 65 NE 9 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 62 62 NE 8 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 11446 10904 4736 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 8 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 9 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 10 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 12 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 12 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 12 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NE 12 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NE 10 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 10 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 10 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 10 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 12 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 13 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 63 66 NE 14 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 60 64 NE 14 11821 11527 5359 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 64 69 NE 13 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 65 70 NE 12 13045 12305 6137 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 66 71 NE 9 13395 12479 6311 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 67 70 NE 8 13045 12305 6137 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 68 70 NE 7 13045 12305 6137 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 71 71 E 6 13395 12479 6311 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 69 69 E 6 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 65 65 NE 6 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 61 61 NE 7 11547 11107 4939 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 60 60 NE 8 11446 10904 4736 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 58 58 NE 8 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NE 9 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 9 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 56 56 NE 10 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 10 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NE 10 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 10 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 10 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NE 10 5335 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 NE 10 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 62 63 NE 9 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 64 67 NE 9 12346 11798 5630 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 62 66 NE 9 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 64 69 NE 9 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 65 70 NE 9 13045 12305 6137 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 66 71 NE 9 13395 12479 6311 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 67 70 NE 9 13045 12305 6137 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 68 70 NE 9 13045 12305 6137 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 71 72 NE 9 13740 12652 6484 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 69 69 NE 9 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 65 65 NE 8 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 63 63 NE 7 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 62 62 NE 7 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 61 61 NE 6 11547 11107 4939 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 59 59 NE 6 11346 9889 3721 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NE 6 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 57 57 NE 6 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 57 57 NE 7 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 56 56 NE 7 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 8 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 56 56 NE 8 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NE 9 8940 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 NE 9 11346 9889 3721 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 63 64 NE 9 11821 11527 5359 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 66 69 NE 9 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 63 67 NE 9 12346 11798 5630 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 66 71 NE 9 13395 12479 6311 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 67 72 NE 9 13740 12652 6484 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 68 73 NE 9 14081 12956 6788 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 69 72 NE 9 13740 12652 6484 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 70 72 NE 8 13740 12652 6484 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 73 74 NE 8 14419 13302 7134 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 71 71 NE 7 13395 12479 6311 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 67 67 NE 7 12346 11798 5630 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 65 65 NE 6 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 63 63 NE 6 11729 11426 5258 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 62 62 NE 5 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 60 60 N 5 11446 10904 4736 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 5 11346 9889 3721 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 58 58 N 6 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 7 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 57 57 N 7 10942 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 10041 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 60 60 NE 7 11446 10904 4736 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 65 66 NE 7 12171 11711 5543 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 68 71 NE 7 13395 12479 6311 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 65 69 NE 7 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 68 73 NE 7 14081 12956 6788 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 69 74 NE 7 14419 13302 7134 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 70 75 NE 8 14752 13645 7477 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 72 75 NE 8 14752 13645 7477 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 73 75 NE 8 14752 13645 7477 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 76 77 NE 8 15408 14317 8149 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 74 74 NE 8 14419 13302 7134 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 69 69 N 7 12694 12132 5964 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 67 67 N 7 12346 11798 5630 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 65 65 NW 7 11996 11625 5457 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 64 64 NW 6 11821 11527 5359 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 11643 11310 5142 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 W 6 11547 11107 4939 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 60 60 NW 6 11446 10904 4736 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 59 59 NW 7 11346 9889 3721 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 58 58 NW 7 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 8 11146 8808 2640 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com