Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 NW 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 7848 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 46 46 W 9 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 W 9 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 53 54 W 10 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 55 56 W 12 12805 10241 4073 White 9
11 AM Tue 57 60 S 14 13646 13600 7432 White 13
12 Noon Tue 60 63 SW 15 14268 14268 8100 White 16
1 PM Tue 61 63 SW 18 14268 14268 8100 White 16
2 PM Tue 62 65 SW 20 14677 14677 8509 White 18
3 PM Tue 63 65 SW 20 14677 14677 8509 White 18
4 PM Tue 62 63 SW 21 14268 14268 8100 White 16
5 PM Tue 61 61 SW 21 13856 13856 7688 White 14
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 20 13437 12865 6697 White 12
7 PM Tue 55 55 SW 17 12263 10106 3938 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 15 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 14 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 53 53 SW 14 10410 8305 2137 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 14 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 14 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 14 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 15 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 48 48 W 16 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 47 47 W 16 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 W 17 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 17 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 17 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 W 18 7848 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 51 51 W 22 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 54 54 SW 24 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 56 56 SW 26 12805 10241 4073 White 9
12 Noon Wed 58 59 SW 28 13437 12865 6697 White 12
1 PM Wed 59 61 SW 29 13856 13856 7688 White 14
2 PM Wed 60 63 SW 29 14268 14268 8100 White 16
3 PM Wed 61 64 SW 30 14473 14473 8305 White 17
4 PM Wed 61 63 SW 31 14268 14268 8100 White 16
5 PM Wed 60 61 SW 32 13856 13856 7688 White 14
6 PM Wed 58 58 SW 32 13227 12073 5905 White 11
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 31 12263 10106 3938 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 53 53 SW 30 10410 8305 2137 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 51 51 SW 29 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 49 49 SW 29 7848 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 48 48 SW 28 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SW 28 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 SW 26 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SW 26 5419 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 25 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 W 25 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 W 24 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 24 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 23 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 SW 23 5419 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 SW 23 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 SW 23 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 51 54 SW 23 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 53 58 SW 24 13227 12073 5905 White 11
1 PM Thu 54 59 SW 25 13437 12865 6697 White 12
2 PM Thu 55 60 SW 26 13646 13600 7432 White 13
3 PM Thu 56 60 W 29 13646 13600 7432 White 13
4 PM Thu 56 58 W 30 13227 12073 5905 White 11
5 PM Thu 55 56 W 31 12805 10241 4073 White 9
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 31 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 31 10123 7808 1640 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 30 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 28 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 25 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 22 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 20 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 W 17 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 W 16 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 15 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 NW 14 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 NW 14 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NW 14 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NW 14 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 47 NW 14 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 51 NW 14 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 50 55 NW 15 12263 10106 3938 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 52 58 NW 16 13227 12073 5905 White 11
1 PM Fri 53 59 NW 17 13437 12865 6697 White 12
2 PM Fri 54 60 NW 18 13646 13600 7432 White 13
3 PM Fri 55 59 NW 20 13437 12865 6697 White 12
4 PM Fri 55 57 NW 21 13016 11208 5040 White 10
5 PM Fri 55 56 NW 21 12805 10241 4073 White 9
6 PM Fri 53 53 NW 21 10410 8305 2137 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 51 51 N 21 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 21 7848 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 21 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 47 47 N 20 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 20 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 N 20 5419 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 N 21 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 N 21 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 21 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 N 22 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 48 N 24 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 49 52 N 26 10123 7808 1640 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 51 56 N 28 12805 10241 4073 White 9
12 Noon Sat 53 59 N 28 13437 12865 6697 White 12
1 PM Sat 54 60 N 28 13646 13600 7432 White 13
2 PM Sat 55 60 N 26 13646 13600 7432 White 13
3 PM Sat 56 60 N 26 13646 13600 7432 White 13
4 PM Sat 56 58 NE 26 13227 12073 5905 White 11
5 PM Sat 55 56 NE 25 12805 10241 4073 White 9
6 PM Sat 53 53 NE 24 10410 8305 2137 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 22 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 21 7848 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 20 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 47 47 N 18 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 18 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 18 5419 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 17 5419 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 17 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 17 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 16 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 16 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 N 16 5036 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 16 5054 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 N 16 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 50 N 17 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 51 54 N 18 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 53 58 N 20 13227 12073 5905 White 11
12 Noon Sun 55 61 NE 20 13856 13856 7688 White 14
1 PM Sun 57 63 NE 20 14268 14268 8100 White 16
2 PM Sun 58 63 NE 20 14268 14268 8100 White 16
3 PM Sun 59 63 E 20 14268 14268 8100 White 16
4 PM Sun 59 61 E 20 13856 13856 7688 White 14
5 PM Sun 58 59 E 18 13437 12865 6697 White 12
6 PM Sun 56 56 E 16 12805 10241 4073 White 9
7 PM Sun 54 54 E 14 11388 9995 3827 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 52 52 E 13 10123 7808 1640 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 51 51 NE 13 10012 7297 1129 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 13 8353 6168 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 49 49 N 13 7848 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 13 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 12 7330 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 12 6136 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 12 5780 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com