Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 22 9293 9293 3125 White 10
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 22 9293 9293 3125 White 10
6 AM Fri 49 49 SW 23 9076 9076 2908 White 9
7 AM Fri 50 50 SW 23 9293 9293 3125 White 10
8 AM Fri 53 53 SW 24 9975 9975 3807 White 13
9 AM Fri 55 56 W 24 10611 10611 4443 White 16
10 AM Fri 54 56 W 25 10611 10611 4443 White 16
11 AM Fri 55 57 W 26 10822 10822 4654 White 17
12 Noon Fri 56 58 W 32 11033 11033 4865 White 18
1 PM Fri 57 59 W 28 11243 11243 5075 White 19
2 PM Fri 58 59 W 26 11243 11243 5075 White 19
3 PM Fri 58 58 W 26 11033 11033 4865 White 18
4 PM Fri 58 58 W 22 11033 11033 4865 White 18
5 PM Fri 52 52 NW 17 9758 9758 3590 White 12
6 PM Fri 50 50 N 13 9293 9293 3125 White 10
7 PM Fri 47 47 NE 9 8641 8253 2085 White 7
8 PM Fri 46 46 NE 10 8423 7795 1627 White 6
9 PM Fri 44 44 NE 14 7986 7332 1164 White 4
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 17 7766 6168 0 White 3
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 17 7545 6168 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 16 7324 6168 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 15 5844 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NE 15 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 NE 16 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 NE 17 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NE 17 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 16 7545 6168 0 White 2
9 AM Sat 45 46 NE 15 8423 7795 1627 White 6
10 AM Sat 43 45 NE 14 8205 7564 1396 White 5
11 AM Sat 46 49 NE 12 9076 9076 2908 White 9
12 Noon Sat 47 50 NE 10 9293 9293 3125 White 10
1 PM Sat 49 51 NE 8 9524 9524 3356 White 11
2 PM Sat 50 51 NE 7 9524 9524 3356 White 11
3 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 9293 9293 3125 White 10
4 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 9293 9293 3125 White 10
5 PM Sat 46 46 NE 6 8423 7795 1627 White 6
6 PM Sat 45 45 NE 7 8205 7564 1396 White 5
7 PM Sat 43 43 NE 8 7766 6168 0 White 3
8 PM Sat 42 42 NE 9 7545 6168 0 White 2
9 PM Sat 41 41 NE 9 7324 6168 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 40 40 NE 9 5844 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 NE 8 5844 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 8 5475 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 N 7 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 N 7 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 7 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 7 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 5164 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 N 8 5475 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 8 7766 6168 0 White 3
9 AM Sun 47 48 NE 7 8859 8859 2691 White 8
10 AM Sun 45 47 NE 6 8641 8253 2085 White 7
11 AM Sun 48 50 N 5 9293 9293 3125 White 10
12 Noon Sun 50 52 NW 2 9758 9758 3590 White 12
1 PM Sun 52 54 W 1 10188 10188 4020 White 14
2 PM Sun 53 54 W 1 10188 10188 4020 White 14
3 PM Sun 53 53 W 1 9975 9975 3807 White 13
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 1 9975 9975 3807 White 13
5 PM Sun 50 50 NW 1 9293 9293 3125 White 10
6 PM Sun 48 48 NW 2 8859 8859 2691 White 8
7 PM Sun 47 47 NW 2 8641 8253 2085 White 7
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 2 8423 7795 1627 White 6
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 1 8205 7564 1396 White 5
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 1 7986 7332 1164 White 4
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 1 7986 7332 1164 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NW 2 7766 6168 0 White 3
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 3 7545 6168 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 3 7324 6168 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 5 7324 6168 0 White 1
4 AM Mon 41 41 W 5 7324 6168 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 6 7324 6168 0 White 1
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 6 5844 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 SW 7 7766 6168 0 White 3
8 AM Mon 48 48 SW 7 8859 8859 2691 White 8
9 AM Mon 53 53 SW 8 9975 9975 3807 White 13
10 AM Mon 50 51 S 8 9524 9524 3356 White 11
11 AM Mon 53 54 SW 8 10188 10188 4020 White 14
12 Noon Mon 55 56 SW 8 10611 10611 4443 White 16
1 PM Mon 58 59 SW 8 11243 11243 5075 White 19
2 PM Mon 59 59 SW 8 11243 11243 5075 White 19
3 PM Mon 59 59 SW 7 11243 11243 5075 White 19
4 PM Mon 59 59 SW 7 11243 11243 5075 White 19
5 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 10399 10399 4231 White 15
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 6 9975 9975 3807 White 13
7 PM Mon 51 51 W 5 9524 9524 3356 White 11
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 9293 9293 3125 White 10
9 PM Mon 49 49 NW 3 9076 9076 2908 White 9
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 3 8859 8859 2691 White 8
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 3 8641 8253 2085 White 7
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 5 8641 8253 2085 White 7
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 8423 7795 1627 White 6
2 AM Tue 44 44 N 7 7986 7332 1164 White 4
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 7986 7332 1164 White 4
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 9 7986 7332 1164 White 4
5 AM Tue 44 44 NE 10 7986 7332 1164 White 4
6 AM Tue 43 43 NE 10 7766 6168 0 White 3
7 AM Tue 46 46 NE 10 8423 7795 1627 White 6
8 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 9758 9758 3590 White 12
9 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 10611 10611 4443 White 16
10 AM Tue 53 54 NE 10 10188 10188 4020 White 14
11 AM Tue 57 58 NE 9 11033 11033 4865 White 18
12 Noon Tue 59 60 NE 9 11454 11454 5286 White 20
1 PM Tue 62 63 NE 8 12082 12082 5914 White 23
2 PM Tue 63 64 NE 7 12289 12289 6121 White 24
3 PM Tue 63 63 NE 6 12082 12082 5914 White 23
4 PM Tue 63 63 E 5 12082 12082 5914 White 23
5 PM Tue 58 58 NE 5 11033 11033 4865 White 18
6 PM Tue 56 56 NE 3 10611 10611 4443 White 16
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 3 10188 10188 4020 White 14
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 9975 9975 3807 White 13
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 3 9758 9758 3590 White 12
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 3 9524 9524 3356 White 11
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 9293 9293 3125 White 10
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 N 5 9076 9076 2908 White 9
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 8859 8859 2691 White 8
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 8641 8253 2085 White 7
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 8423 7795 1627 White 6
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 8423 7795 1627 White 6
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 8 8641 8253 2085 White 7
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 8 8205 7564 1396 White 5
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 9 8859 8859 2691 White 8
8 AM Wed 54 54 NE 9 10188 10188 4020 White 14
9 AM Wed 59 60 NE 9 11454 11454 5286 White 20
10 AM Wed 56 58 NE 9 11033 11033 4865 White 18
11 AM Wed 60 62 NE 8 11873 11873 5705 White 22
12 Noon Wed 62 64 E 8 12289 12289 6121 White 24
1 PM Wed 64 66 E 7 12700 12700 6532 White 25
2 PM Wed 66 67 E 6 12905 12905 6737 White 26
3 PM Wed 66 66 E 5 12700 12700 6532 White 25
4 PM Wed 66 66 E 3 12700 12700 6532 White 25
5 PM Wed 61 61 E 3 11663 11663 5495 White 21
6 PM Wed 59 59 NE 3 11243 11243 5075 White 19
7 PM Wed 57 57 NE 3 10822 10822 4654 White 17
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 3 10611 10611 4443 White 16
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 5 10188 10188 4020 White 14
10 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 9975 9975 3807 White 13
11 PM Wed 52 52 NW 5 9758 9758 3590 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 5 9758 9758 3590 White 12
1 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 9293 9293 3125 White 10
2 AM Thu 49 49 N 6 9076 9076 2908 White 9
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 8859 8859 2691 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com