Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 48 48 SW 8 8717 6924 756 White 1
6 AM Sun 48 48 SW 8 8717 6924 756 White 1
7 AM Sun 48 48 SW 10 8717 6924 756 White 1
8 AM Sun 51 53 SW 14 9824 9824 3656 White 6
9 AM Sun 52 55 SW 17 10244 10244 4076 White 8
10 AM Sun 53 56 SW 20 10454 10454 4286 White 9
11 AM Sun 54 57 SW 21 10663 10663 4495 White 10
12 Noon Sun 55 58 SW 22 10872 10872 4704 White 11
1 PM Sun 55 57 SW 23 10663 10663 4495 White 10
2 PM Sun 54 55 SW 22 10244 10244 4076 White 8
3 PM Sun 52 53 SW 23 9824 9824 3656 White 6
4 PM Sun 51 52 SW 21 9610 9427 3259 White 5
5 PM Sun 49 50 SW 21 9165 8603 2435 White 3
6 PM Sun 48 48 SW 24 8717 6924 756 White 1
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 26 7905 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 W 26 5926 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 W 26 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 W 26 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 23 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 22 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 SW 21 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 18 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 SW 17 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 16 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 W 14 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 W 12 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 41 W 8 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 44 W 10 5926 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 48 W 14 8717 6924 756 White 1
11 AM Mon 46 51 W 14 9388 9018 2850 White 4
12 Noon Mon 48 54 W 14 10034 10034 3866 White 7
1 PM Mon 50 56 W 15 10454 10454 4286 White 9
2 PM Mon 52 58 W 15 10872 10872 4704 White 11
3 PM Mon 53 58 W 15 10872 10872 4704 White 11
4 PM Mon 54 57 W 15 10663 10663 4495 White 10
5 PM Mon 54 55 W 15 10244 10244 4076 White 8
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 15 9824 9824 3656 White 6
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 14 9610 9427 3259 White 5
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 14 9165 8603 2435 White 3
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 14 8941 7834 1666 White 2
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 14 8941 7834 1666 White 2
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 14 8717 6924 756 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 13 8493 6168 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 W 13 8493 6168 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 W 12 7905 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 W 12 6973 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 W 13 6973 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 NW 13 6973 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 W 13 7905 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 W 13 8941 7834 1666 White 2
8 AM Tue 51 52 W 12 9610 9427 3259 White 5
9 AM Tue 53 56 W 10 10454 10454 4286 White 9
10 AM Tue 56 60 W 10 11290 11290 5122 White 13
11 AM Tue 58 63 W 9 11912 11912 5744 White 16
12 Noon Tue 60 65 W 8 12327 12327 6159 White 18
1 PM Tue 61 65 W 7 12327 12327 6159 White 18
2 PM Tue 62 65 W 7 12327 12327 6159 White 18
3 PM Tue 63 66 W 7 12533 12533 6365 White 19
4 PM Tue 63 65 NW 8 12327 12327 6159 White 18
5 PM Tue 62 63 NW 9 11912 11912 5744 White 16
6 PM Tue 61 61 NW 9 11498 11498 5330 White 14
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 10 11080 11080 4912 White 12
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 9 10872 10872 4704 White 11
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 10663 10663 4495 White 10
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 5 10663 10663 4495 White 10
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 2 10454 10454 4286 White 9
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 3 10244 10244 4076 White 8
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 10034 10034 3866 White 7
2 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 9824 9824 3656 White 6
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 9610 9427 3259 White 5
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 9610 9427 3259 White 5
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 9610 9427 3259 White 5
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 8 9824 9824 3656 White 6
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 10244 10244 4076 White 8
8 AM Wed 57 59 N 8 11080 11080 4912 White 12
9 AM Wed 59 62 N 9 11706 11706 5538 White 15
10 AM Wed 60 65 N 9 12327 12327 6159 White 18
11 AM Wed 62 68 NW 10 12945 12945 6777 White 21
12 Noon Wed 64 70 NW 10 13356 13356 7188 White 22
1 PM Wed 65 71 NW 10 13560 13560 7392 White 23
2 PM Wed 66 71 NW 10 13560 13560 7392 White 23
3 PM Wed 67 70 NW 12 13356 13356 7188 White 22
4 PM Wed 67 69 W 13 13150 13150 6982 White 22
5 PM Wed 66 67 W 14 12740 12740 6572 White 20
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 13 12327 12327 6159 White 18
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 11912 11912 5744 White 16
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 9 11498 11498 5330 White 14
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 11290 11290 5122 White 13
10 PM Wed 60 60 N 8 11290 11290 5122 White 13
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 8 11080 11080 4912 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NE 8 10872 10872 4704 White 11
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 7 10663 10663 4495 White 10
2 AM Thu 56 56 SE 7 10454 10454 4286 White 9
3 AM Thu 55 55 E 7 10244 10244 4076 White 8
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 7 10244 10244 4076 White 8
5 AM Thu 55 55 E 7 10244 10244 4076 White 8
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 10454 10454 4286 White 9
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 7 11080 11080 4912 White 12
8 AM Thu 61 62 E 8 11706 11706 5538 White 15
9 AM Thu 63 66 E 10 12533 12533 6365 White 19
10 AM Thu 65 70 SE 13 13356 13356 7188 White 22
11 AM Thu 67 73 SE 14 13970 13970 7802 White 25
12 Noon Thu 69 76 S 14 14580 14580 8412 White 28
1 PM Thu 70 77 S 14 14783 14783 8615 White 29
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 14 14783 14783 8615 White 29
3 PM Thu 71 76 SW 14 14580 14580 8412 White 28
4 PM Thu 71 74 SW 13 14174 14174 8006 White 26
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 13 13560 13560 7392 White 23
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 12 12945 12945 6777 White 21
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 12 12533 12533 6365 White 19
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 10 12120 12120 5952 White 17
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 11706 11706 5538 White 15
10 PM Thu 61 61 S 10 11498 11498 5330 White 14
11 PM Thu 60 60 S 10 11290 11290 5122 White 13
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 S 10 11080 11080 4912 White 12
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 10872 10872 4704 White 11
2 AM Fri 57 57 SW 10 10663 10663 4495 White 10
3 AM Fri 56 56 SW 10 10454 10454 4286 White 9
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 10454 10454 4286 White 9
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 10454 10454 4286 White 9
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 10663 10663 4495 White 10
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 9 11290 11290 5122 White 13
8 AM Fri 62 64 SW 10 12120 12120 5952 White 17
9 AM Fri 64 68 SW 12 12945 12945 6777 White 21
10 AM Fri 66 71 S 13 13560 13560 7392 White 23
11 AM Fri 68 75 S 14 14377 14377 8209 White 27
12 Noon Fri 70 77 S 15 14783 14783 8615 White 29
1 PM Fri 72 79 S 17 15188 15188 9020 White 31
2 PM Fri 73 79 S 18 15188 15188 9020 White 31
3 PM Fri 73 77 S 20 14783 14783 8615 White 29
4 PM Fri 73 75 SW 20 14377 14377 8209 White 27
5 PM Fri 72 73 SW 20 13970 13970 7802 White 25
6 PM Fri 70 70 SW 18 13356 13356 7188 White 22
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 16 12740 12740 6572 White 20
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 14 12327 12327 6159 White 18
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 13 11912 11912 5744 White 16
10 PM Fri 62 62 S 13 11706 11706 5538 White 15
11 PM Fri 61 61 S 13 11498 11498 5330 White 14
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SE 12 11290 11290 5122 White 13
1 AM Sat 59 59 NE 12 11080 11080 4912 White 12
2 AM Sat 58 58 N 10 10872 10872 4704 White 11
3 AM Sat 57 57 N 10 10663 10663 4495 White 10
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 9 10454 10454 4286 White 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com