Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 62 62 W 12 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 12 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 65 65 W 12 7670 7031 863 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 67 67 W 12 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 68 70 W 13 10888 8859 2691 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 70 73 W 13 12184 10744 4576 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 71 76 SW 14 13866 12098 5930 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 73 79 SW 15 16620 13792 7624 White 22
1 PM Tue 75 81 SW 15 17026 15598 9430 White 24
2 PM Tue 77 82 SW 16 17229 16048 9880 White 25
3 PM Tue 79 83 SW 17 17431 17224 11056 White 26
4 PM Tue 80 82 SW 17 17229 16048 9880 White 25
5 PM Tue 79 80 SW 17 16824 14055 7887 White 23
6 PM Tue 77 77 SW 15 15330 12450 6282 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 74 74 SW 13 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 71 71 SW 12 11382 9442 3274 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 12 10088 8254 2086 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 13 9517 7624 1456 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 14 9517 7624 1456 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 14 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 13 7670 7031 863 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 63 63 W 12 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 12 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 10 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 60 60 W 10 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 61 61 W 9 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 8 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 7298 6902 734 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 66 67 W 8 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 68 71 W 9 11382 9442 3274 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 70 74 W 10 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 71 76 W 12 13866 12098 5930 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 73 78 W 12 15737 12708 6540 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 75 80 W 13 16824 14055 7887 White 23
3 PM Wed 77 81 W 14 17026 15598 9430 White 24
4 PM Wed 78 80 W 14 16824 14055 7887 White 23
5 PM Wed 77 78 W 14 15737 12708 6540 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 13 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 10888 8859 2691 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 67 67 NW 9 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 8 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 66 66 NW 7 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 66 66 NW 7 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 NW 7 7670 7031 863 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 64 64 NW 6 7298 6902 734 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 62 62 NW 6 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 61 61 NW 5 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 5 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 5 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 7 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 63 63 NE 8 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 65 67 NE 9 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 68 71 NE 9 11382 9442 3274 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 70 75 E 9 12770 11704 5536 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 72 78 E 9 15737 12708 6540 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 74 80 E 8 16824 14055 7887 White 23
2 PM Thu 76 81 SE 7 17026 15598 9430 White 24
3 PM Thu 78 82 SE 7 17229 16048 9880 White 25
4 PM Thu 79 81 S 6 17026 15598 9430 White 24
5 PM Thu 79 80 S 6 16824 14055 7887 White 23
6 PM Thu 77 77 S 5 15330 12450 6282 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 74 74 SE 5 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 71 71 SE 3 11382 9442 3274 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 69 69 SE 2 10088 8254 2086 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 68 68 SE 1 9517 7624 1456 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 67 67 SE 1 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 1 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 1 7670 7031 863 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 63 63 SW 2 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 62 62 W 3 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 3 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 63 63 SW 7 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 66 68 S 7 9517 7624 1456 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 68 71 S 8 11382 9442 3274 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 70 75 S 8 12770 11704 5536 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 73 79 S 9 16620 13792 7624 White 22
1 PM Fri 75 81 S 9 17026 15598 9430 White 24
2 PM Fri 76 81 S 10 17026 15598 9430 White 24
3 PM Fri 78 82 SW 12 17229 16048 9880 White 25
4 PM Fri 78 80 SW 12 16824 14055 7887 White 23
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 12 16620 13792 7624 White 22
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 12 15330 12450 6282 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 10 12770 11704 5536 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 9 11786 10005 3837 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 8 10888 8859 2691 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 8 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 7 7670 7031 863 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SW 7 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 6 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 62 62 SW 7 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 63 63 SW 7 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 65 67 S 8 8926 7290 1122 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 67 70 S 8 10888 8859 2691 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 69 74 S 9 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 71 77 S 10 15330 12450 6282 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 74 80 S 10 16824 14055 7887 White 23
2 PM Sat 76 81 SW 12 17026 15598 9430 White 24
3 PM Sat 78 82 SW 13 17229 16048 9880 White 25
4 PM Sat 79 81 SW 13 17026 15598 9430 White 24
5 PM Sat 79 80 SW 13 16824 14055 7887 White 23
6 PM Sat 78 78 SW 12 15737 12708 6540 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 12 13866 12098 5930 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 74 74 SW 10 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 9 11382 9442 3274 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 8 9517 7624 1456 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 66 66 SW 7 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 7 7298 6902 734 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 6 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 61 61 SW 7 6908 6168 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 62 62 SW 7 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 63 63 SW 7 7168 6772 604 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 64 64 SW 8 7298 6902 734 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 66 66 SW 9 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 68 70 SW 9 10888 8859 2691 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 71 74 S 10 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 73 78 S 12 15737 12708 6540 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 75 80 S 13 16824 14055 7887 White 23
1 PM Sun 77 83 S 14 17431 17224 11056 White 26
2 PM Sun 79 84 SW 15 17632 17458 11290 White 27
3 PM Sun 80 84 SW 15 17632 17458 11290 White 27
4 PM Sun 80 82 SW 16 17229 16048 9880 White 25
5 PM Sun 80 81 SW 16 17026 15598 9430 White 24
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 15 15737 12708 6540 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 14 15330 12450 6282 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 74 74 SW 13 12510 11304 5136 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 11786 10005 3837 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 10 10088 8254 2086 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 9 8311 7161 993 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 9 7298 6902 734 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 9 7038 6467 299 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 9 6778 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 9 6484 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 59 59 SW 9 6484 6168 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com