Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 31 31 NE 18 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NE 18 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 NE 17 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NE 17 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NE 16 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 39 NE 16 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 41 43 NE 15 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 43 46 NE 14 6945 6672 504 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 45 47 NE 14 7050 6745 577 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 46 48 NE 13 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 47 48 NE 12 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 47 47 NE 12 7050 6745 577 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 45 45 NE 13 6840 6599 431 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 41 41 NE 14 6528 6168 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 38 38 NE 15 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 38 38 NE 16 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 38 38 NE 16 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 16 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 16 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 15 5628 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 NE 14 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NE 13 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 NE 13 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 NE 12 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 NE 12 5348 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NE 12 5402 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 12 5628 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NE 10 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 43 44 NE 10 6749 6526 358 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 47 48 NE 9 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 48 50 NE 8 7264 7045 877 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 49 51 NE 8 7320 7148 980 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 50 52 NE 7 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 51 52 NE 6 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 52 52 NE 6 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 7320 7148 980 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 49 49 NE 7 7207 6940 772 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 9 6945 6672 504 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 43 43 NE 10 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 42 42 NE 12 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 12 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 12 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 41 41 NE 12 6528 6168 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 12 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 38 38 NE 12 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 12 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 5628 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 10 5628 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 10 5628 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NE 9 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 8 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 46 47 NE 8 7050 6745 577 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 50 52 NE 7 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 52 54 NE 6 7516 7317 1149 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 53 55 NE 5 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 53 55 NE 3 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 54 55 NE 2 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 55 55 NE 2 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 55 55 NE 2 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 53 53 NE 2 7434 7260 1092 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 50 50 N 2 7264 7045 877 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 2 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 2 6945 6672 504 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 3 6840 6599 431 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 44 44 N 3 6749 6526 358 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 43 43 N 3 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 5 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 39 39 N 5 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 3 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 5 6840 6599 431 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 48 49 NW 5 7207 6940 772 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 50 52 NW 5 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 52 54 NW 5 7516 7317 1149 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 54 56 W 5 7699 7430 1262 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 55 57 W 5 7909 7510 1342 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 55 56 SW 5 7699 7430 1262 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 55 55 S 5 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 54 54 S 5 7516 7317 1149 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 53 53 S 5 7434 7260 1092 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 52 52 S 6 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 50 50 SW 6 7264 7045 877 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 48 48 SW 6 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 6945 6672 504 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 7 6749 6526 358 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 7 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 7 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 39 39 NW 7 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 38 38 NW 6 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 38 38 NW 6 5939 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 39 39 NW 6 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 6 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 6749 6526 358 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 46 46 E 5 6945 6672 504 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 49 50 E 5 7264 7045 877 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 51 52 E 5 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 53 55 SE 5 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 54 56 SE 5 7699 7430 1262 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 55 57 S 5 7909 7510 1342 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 55 56 S 5 7699 7430 1262 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 55 55 S 6 7608 7373 1205 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 54 54 S 6 7516 7317 1149 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 53 53 S 6 7434 7260 1092 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 51 51 SE 7 7320 7148 980 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 49 49 SE 7 7207 6940 772 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 47 47 E 7 7050 6745 577 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 8 6840 6599 431 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 8 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 8 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 9 6528 6168 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 10 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 39 39 NE 10 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 39 39 NE 10 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 10 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 9 6840 6599 431 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 47 48 NE 9 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 48 49 NE 9 7207 6940 772 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 50 52 NE 9 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 51 53 NE 9 7434 7260 1092 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 52 53 NE 8 7434 7260 1092 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 52 53 NE 8 7434 7260 1092 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 52 52 NE 8 7377 7204 1036 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 51 51 NE 8 7320 7148 980 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 51 51 NE 8 7320 7148 980 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 49 49 N 8 7207 6940 772 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 8 7151 6835 667 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 46 46 N 9 6945 6672 504 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 45 45 N 9 6840 6599 431 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 43 43 N 9 6675 6452 284 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 42 42 N 9 6602 6239 71 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 9 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 40 40 N 10 6455 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 10 6247 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 39 39 NE 10 6247 6168 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com