Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 74 74 W 7 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 75 75 W 6 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 76 76 SW 6 6982 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 78 79 SW 6 8661 6970 802 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 80 82 SW 7 9611 8629 2461 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 82 85 S 9 13512 9570 3402 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 84 87 S 10 15155 12529 6361 White 14
12 Noon Sat 85 89 S 10 15570 14450 8282 White 16
1 PM Sat 86 90 S 9 15776 15074 8906 White 17
2 PM Sat 87 91 S 8 15981 15981 9813 White 18
3 PM Sat 87 90 S 7 15776 15074 8906 White 17
4 PM Sat 87 89 S 7 15570 14450 8282 White 16
5 PM Sat 86 87 S 6 15155 12529 6361 White 14
6 PM Sat 85 85 S 5 13512 9570 3402 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 83 83 S 3 10381 8945 2777 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 81 81 S 3 9297 7834 1666 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 79 79 S 3 8661 6970 802 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 78 78 SW 5 7931 6713 545 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 76 76 SW 5 6982 6168 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 W 5 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 73 73 W 6 5779 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 W 6 5779 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 W 5 5779 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 W 5 5779 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 73 73 W 5 5779 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 74 75 SW 6 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 75 77 SW 6 7239 6431 263 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 77 80 SW 7 8980 7225 1057 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 78 82 SW 7 9611 8629 2461 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 79 84 SW 6 12631 9259 3091 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 80 85 S 6 13512 9570 3402 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 82 87 S 5 15155 12529 6361 White 14
3 PM Sun 84 88 S 5 15363 13257 7089 White 15
4 PM Sun 86 89 S 6 15570 14450 8282 White 16
5 PM Sun 88 90 S 6 15776 15074 8906 White 17
6 PM Sun 88 88 SW 6 15363 13257 7089 White 15
7 PM Sun 88 88 SW 6 15363 13257 7089 White 15
8 PM Sun 87 87 W 6 15155 12529 6361 White 14
9 PM Sun 86 86 W 6 14773 10225 4057 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 84 84 W 5 12631 9259 3091 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 83 83 W 5 10381 8945 2777 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 W 5 9297 7834 1666 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 79 79 W 6 8661 6970 802 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 77 77 W 6 7239 6431 263 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 75 75 W 6 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 74 74 W 6 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 74 74 W 6 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 75 75 NW 6 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 76 76 N 5 6982 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 78 79 N 5 8661 6970 802 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 80 82 N 5 9611 8629 2461 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 83 87 NE 5 15155 12529 6361 White 14
11 AM Mon 85 91 NE 5 15981 15981 9813 White 18
12 Noon Mon 87 94 E 5 16595 16595 10427 White 21
1 PM Mon 89 96 SE 5 17000 17000 10832 White 23
2 PM Mon 91 98 S 5 17403 17403 11235 White 25
3 PM Mon 92 97 S 6 17203 17203 11035 White 24
4 PM Mon 93 97 SW 6 17203 17203 11035 White 24
5 PM Mon 93 95 W 7 16797 16797 10629 White 22
6 PM Mon 93 94 W 7 16595 16595 10427 White 21
7 PM Mon 93 93 W 7 16390 16390 10222 White 20
8 PM Mon 92 92 W 7 16186 16186 10018 White 19
9 PM Mon 91 91 W 7 15981 15981 9813 White 18
10 PM Mon 88 88 NW 6 15363 13257 7089 White 15
11 PM Mon 86 86 NW 6 14773 10225 4057 Blue 13
12 Midnight Tue 83 83 NW 6 10381 8945 2777 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 80 80 NW 7 8980 7225 1057 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 77 77 NW 7 7239 6431 263 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 75 75 NW 7 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 73 73 NW 6 5779 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 NW 6 5521 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 NW 6 5521 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 W 5 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 76 77 W 5 7239 6431 263 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 78 81 SW 3 9297 7834 1666 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 81 85 S 3 13512 9570 3402 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 84 90 S 3 15776 15074 8906 White 17
12 Noon Tue 87 94 S 3 16595 16595 10427 White 21
1 PM Tue 89 96 S 5 17000 17000 10832 White 23
2 PM Tue 91 97 S 5 17203 17203 11035 White 24
3 PM Tue 93 98 SW 6 17403 17403 11235 White 25
4 PM Tue 94 98 SW 7 17403 17403 11235 White 25
5 PM Tue 95 97 SW 7 17203 17203 11035 White 24
6 PM Tue 95 96 SW 7 17000 17000 10832 White 23
7 PM Tue 94 94 SW 7 16595 16595 10427 White 21
8 PM Tue 93 93 W 7 16390 16390 10222 White 20
9 PM Tue 91 91 W 6 15981 15981 9813 White 18
10 PM Tue 89 89 W 6 15570 14450 8282 White 16
11 PM Tue 87 87 W 6 15155 12529 6361 White 14
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 W 6 12631 9259 3091 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 81 81 W 6 9297 7834 1666 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 78 78 W 7 7931 6713 545 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 76 76 W 7 6982 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 74 74 NW 7 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 74 74 NW 7 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 75 75 NW 7 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 77 77 W 6 7239 6431 263 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 80 81 W 6 9297 7834 1666 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 84 86 SW 6 14773 10225 4057 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 87 91 SW 6 15981 15981 9813 White 18
11 AM Wed 90 95 SW 6 16797 16797 10629 White 22
12 Noon Wed 93 99 SW 7 17602 17602 11434 White 26
1 PM Wed 95 102 SW 8 18199 18199 12031 White 29
2 PM Wed 96 102 SW 9 18199 18199 12031 White 29
3 PM Wed 97 102 SW 9 18199 18199 12031 White 29
4 PM Wed 97 101 SW 10 18001 18001 11833 White 28
5 PM Wed 97 99 W 12 17602 17602 11434 White 26
6 PM Wed 97 98 W 12 17403 17403 11235 White 25
7 PM Wed 96 96 W 12 17000 17000 10832 White 23
8 PM Wed 95 95 W 12 16797 16797 10629 White 22
9 PM Wed 93 93 W 12 16390 16390 10222 White 20
10 PM Wed 91 91 W 10 15981 15981 9813 White 18
11 PM Wed 89 89 W 10 15570 14450 8282 White 16
12 Midnight Thu 86 86 W 10 14773 10225 4057 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 82 82 W 9 9611 8629 2461 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 79 79 W 8 8661 6970 802 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 76 76 W 8 6982 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 75 75 W 7 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 74 74 W 7 6452 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 75 75 W 7 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 76 76 W 7 6982 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 79 80 W 7 8980 7225 1057 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 82 84 W 7 12631 9259 3091 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 85 89 SW 7 15570 14450 8282 White 16
11 AM Thu 87 93 SW 8 16390 16390 10222 White 20
12 Noon Thu 90 97 SW 9 17203 17203 11035 White 24
1 PM Thu 92 99 SW 10 17602 17602 11434 White 26
2 PM Thu 93 100 SW 12 17801 17801 11633 White 27
3 PM Thu 94 99 SW 14 17602 17602 11434 White 26
4 PM Thu 94 98 SW 14 17403 17403 11235 White 25
5 PM Thu 94 96 SW 15 17000 17000 10832 White 23
6 PM Thu 93 94 SW 15 16595 16595 10427 White 21
7 PM Thu 92 92 SW 14 16186 16186 10018 White 19
8 PM Thu 90 90 SW 14 15776 15074 8906 White 17
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 13 15363 13257 7089 White 15
10 PM Thu 86 86 SW 12 14773 10225 4057 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 84 84 SW 10 12631 9259 3091 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 SW 9 9297 7834 1666 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 79 79 SW 8 8661 6970 802 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 77 77 SW 7 7239 6431 263 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 75 75 SW 7 6724 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 74 74 SW 6 6452 6168 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com