Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 S 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 47 47 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 38 39 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 44 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 45 48 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 48 52 NE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 50 54 NE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 51 55 NE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 53 56 NNE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 54 55 SE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 55 55 N 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 48 48 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 NE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 NNE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 37 37 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 37 37 NNE 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 14 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 36 37 NNE 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 38 40 NNE 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 41 44 NNE 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 43 47 NNE 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 45 50 NNE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 46 50 NNE 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 48 51 NNE 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 50 NNE 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 49 49 NNE 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 50 NNE 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 NNE 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 45 NNE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 41 41 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 39 39 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 37 37 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 36 36 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 36 36 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 34 34 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 34 34 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 34 34 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 34 35 NNE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 39 41 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 43 46 NE 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 47 51 NE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 54 NE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 54 NE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 52 55 NE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 53 54 NE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 53 53 NE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 54 54 NE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 52 52 NE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 50 50 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 46 NNE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 43 43 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 41 41 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com