Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 79 79 SW 7 7119 6130 2826 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 81 81 SW 7 8505 6848 3544 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 84 84 SW 7 9453 8434 5130 Blue 15
8 AM Sat 87 88 SW 7 13301 9717 6413 White 19
9 AM Sat 91 92 SW 7 14140 14140 10836 White 23
10 AM Sat 95 97 SW 8 15172 15172 11868 White 28
11 AM Sat 98 101 SW 8 15985 15985 12681 White 32
12 Noon Sat 100 104 SW 8 16589 16589 13285 White 35
1 PM Sat 102 106 S 7 16989 16989 13685 White 37
2 PM Sat 102 106 S 7 16989 16989 13685 White 37
3 PM Sat 102 105 S 7 16789 16789 13485 White 36
4 PM Sat 101 103 SW 8 16388 16388 13084 White 34
5 PM Sat 100 101 SW 8 15985 15985 12681 White 32
6 PM Sat 99 99 S 8 15580 15580 12276 White 30
7 PM Sat 98 98 S 7 15377 15377 12073 White 29
8 PM Sat 96 96 S 6 14967 14967 11663 White 27
9 PM Sat 94 94 S 6 14555 14555 11251 White 25
10 PM Sat 92 92 SW 5 14140 14140 10836 White 23
11 PM Sat 89 89 SW 5 13512 11559 8255 White 20
12 Midnight Sun 86 86 SW 5 12241 9099 5795 Blue 17
1 AM Sun 83 83 SW 5 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 81 81 SW 5 8505 6848 3544 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 79 79 SW 5 7119 6130 2826 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 79 79 SW 5 7119 6130 2826 Blue 10
5 AM Sun 80 80 SW 5 7374 6593 3289 Blue 11
6 AM Sun 81 81 SW 6 8505 6848 3544 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 84 84 SW 7 9453 8434 5130 Blue 15
8 AM Sun 87 88 SW 8 13301 9717 6413 White 19
9 AM Sun 90 92 SW 7 14140 14140 10836 White 23
10 AM Sun 92 95 SW 6 14761 14761 11457 White 26
11 AM Sun 95 99 S 5 15580 15580 12276 White 30
12 Noon Sun 97 102 S 5 16187 16187 12883 White 33
1 PM Sun 99 104 SE 5 16589 16589 13285 White 35
2 PM Sun 101 106 SE 5 16989 16989 13685 White 37
3 PM Sun 102 106 SE 5 16989 16989 13685 White 37
4 PM Sun 103 106 SE 5 16989 16989 13685 White 37
5 PM Sun 103 105 SE 5 16789 16789 13485 White 36
6 PM Sun 103 103 SE 5 16388 16388 13084 White 34
7 PM Sun 102 102 SE 6 16187 16187 12883 White 33
8 PM Sun 101 101 SE 6 15985 15985 12681 White 32
9 PM Sun 99 99 S 5 15580 15580 12276 White 30
10 PM Sun 97 97 SW 3 15172 15172 11868 White 28
11 PM Sun 94 94 SW 2 14555 14555 11251 White 25
12 Midnight Mon 91 91 SW 3 13931 13679 10375 White 22
1 AM Mon 87 87 SW 6 13091 9409 6105 White 18
2 AM Mon 84 84 SW 7 9453 8434 5130 Blue 15
3 AM Mon 81 81 W 6 8505 6848 3544 Blue 12
4 AM Mon 79 79 W 5 7119 6130 2826 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 79 79 W 3 7119 6130 2826 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 80 80 W 3 7374 6593 3289 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 83 83 NW 5 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
8 AM Mon 86 87 NW 6 13091 9409 6105 White 18
9 AM Mon 90 93 N 5 14348 14348 11044 White 24
10 AM Mon 94 98 NE 5 15377 15377 12073 White 29
11 AM Mon 98 104 NE 3 16589 16589 13285 White 35
12 Noon Mon 101 108 NE 5 17385 17385 14081 White 39
1 PM Mon 103 111 N 5 17974 17974 14670 White 42
2 PM Mon 105 112 N 6 18169 18169 14865 White 43
3 PM Mon 106 112 N 5 18169 18169 14865 White 43
4 PM Mon 107 111 NW 5 17974 17974 14670 White 42
5 PM Mon 107 109 NW 3 17582 17582 14278 White 40
6 PM Mon 106 107 NW 5 17187 17187 13883 White 38
7 PM Mon 105 105 W 5 16789 16789 13485 White 36
8 PM Mon 103 103 W 6 16388 16388 13084 White 34
9 PM Mon 100 100 W 6 15782 15782 12478 White 31
10 PM Mon 97 97 W 5 15172 15172 11868 White 28
11 PM Mon 94 94 W 5 14555 14555 11251 White 25
12 Midnight Tue 91 91 W 6 13931 13679 10375 White 22
1 AM Tue 88 88 W 7 13301 9717 6413 White 19
2 AM Tue 85 85 W 8 9843 8786 5482 Blue 16
3 AM Tue 83 83 W 8 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 82 82 SW 8 8824 7102 3798 Blue 13
5 AM Tue 82 82 SW 7 8824 7102 3798 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 84 84 W 6 9453 8434 5130 Blue 15
7 AM Tue 86 86 W 6 12241 9099 5795 Blue 17
8 AM Tue 90 91 NW 5 13931 13679 10375 White 22
9 AM Tue 94 97 N 5 15172 15172 11868 White 28
10 AM Tue 98 102 NE 3 16187 16187 12883 White 33
11 AM Tue 102 108 NE 3 17385 17385 14081 White 39
12 Noon Tue 105 112 E 3 18169 18169 14865 White 43
1 PM Tue 107 114 E 3 18559 18559 15255 White 45
2 PM Tue 109 115 SE 3 18754 18754 15450 White 46
3 PM Tue 111 116 SE 3 18947 18947 15643 White 47
4 PM Tue 111 114 S 5 18559 18559 15255 White 45
5 PM Tue 111 113 S 5 18364 18364 15060 White 44
6 PM Tue 110 110 S 6 17778 17778 14474 White 41
7 PM Tue 108 108 S 6 17385 17385 14081 White 39
8 PM Tue 105 105 SW 7 16789 16789 13485 White 36
9 PM Tue 102 102 SW 8 16187 16187 12883 White 33
10 PM Tue 99 99 SW 8 15580 15580 12276 White 30
11 PM Tue 96 96 W 9 14967 14967 11663 White 27
12 Midnight Wed 92 92 W 10 14140 14140 10836 White 23
1 AM Wed 88 88 SW 10 13301 9717 6413 White 19
2 AM Wed 85 85 SW 10 9843 8786 5482 Blue 16
3 AM Wed 83 83 SW 10 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 82 82 SW 10 8824 7102 3798 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 83 83 SW 10 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 85 85 SW 9 9843 8786 5482 Blue 16
7 AM Wed 88 88 SW 8 13301 9717 6413 White 19
8 AM Wed 93 94 SW 7 14555 14555 11251 White 25
9 AM Wed 98 100 SW 6 15782 15782 12478 White 31
10 AM Wed 102 106 SW 5 16989 16989 13685 White 37
11 AM Wed 106 111 SW 3 17974 17974 14670 White 42
12 Noon Wed 109 115 SW 3 18754 18754 15450 White 46
1 PM Wed 110 117 SW 3 19147 19147 15843 White 48
2 PM Wed 111 117 SW 5 19147 19147 15843 White 48
3 PM Wed 111 116 SW 5 18947 18947 15643 White 47
4 PM Wed 110 113 SW 6 18364 18364 15060 White 44
5 PM Wed 109 111 SW 7 17974 17974 14670 White 42
6 PM Wed 108 108 SW 8 17385 17385 14081 White 39
7 PM Wed 106 106 SW 8 16989 16989 13685 White 37
8 PM Wed 104 104 SW 9 16589 16589 13285 White 35
9 PM Wed 102 102 SW 10 16187 16187 12883 White 33
10 PM Wed 100 100 W 12 15782 15782 12478 White 31
11 PM Wed 97 97 W 12 15172 15172 11868 White 28
12 Midnight Thu 93 93 W 12 14348 14348 11044 White 24
1 AM Thu 90 90 W 13 13722 12726 9422 White 21
2 AM Thu 87 87 SW 13 13091 9409 6105 White 18
3 AM Thu 84 84 SW 13 9453 8434 5130 Blue 15
4 AM Thu 83 83 SW 12 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 83 83 SW 12 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 85 85 SW 10 9843 8786 5482 Blue 16
7 AM Thu 87 87 SW 9 13091 9409 6105 White 18
8 AM Thu 91 92 SW 9 14140 14140 10836 White 23
9 AM Thu 95 97 SW 8 15172 15172 11868 White 28
10 AM Thu 99 103 SW 7 16388 16388 13084 White 34
11 AM Thu 102 107 SW 7 17187 17187 13883 White 38
12 Noon Thu 105 111 SW 8 17974 17974 14670 White 42
1 PM Thu 107 114 SW 8 18559 18559 15255 White 45
2 PM Thu 108 114 SW 10 18559 18559 15255 White 45
3 PM Thu 109 114 SW 12 18559 18559 15255 White 45
4 PM Thu 109 113 SW 13 18364 18364 15060 White 44
5 PM Thu 108 110 SW 14 17778 17778 14474 White 41
6 PM Thu 107 108 SW 15 17385 17385 14081 White 39
7 PM Thu 106 106 SW 15 16989 16989 13685 White 37
8 PM Thu 103 103 SW 16 16388 16388 13084 White 34
9 PM Thu 101 101 SW 16 15985 15985 12681 White 32
10 PM Thu 98 98 SW 16 15377 15377 12073 White 29
11 PM Thu 95 95 SW 16 14761 14761 11457 White 26
12 Midnight Fri 92 92 SW 16 14140 14140 10836 White 23
1 AM Fri 89 89 SW 15 13512 11559 8255 White 20
2 AM Fri 86 86 SW 14 12241 9099 5795 Blue 17
3 AM Fri 83 83 SW 13 9139 7355 4051 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 82 82 SW 13 8824 7102 3798 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com