Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 SW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 SW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 73 SW 5 8089 5583 2279 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 78 81 SW 6 12422 8717 5413 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 82 87 SW 7 15291 13868 10564 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 86 92 SW 9 16263 15644 12340 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 87 93 SW 10 17112 15731 12427 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 88 94 SW 13 17885 15817 12513 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 88 92 SW 14 16263 15644 12340 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 89 91 SW 15 15855 15423 12119 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 87 88 SW 15 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 14 14526 12958 9654 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 12 11558 8518 5214 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 8425 7994 4690 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 75 75 SW 9 8313 6863 3559 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 72 72 SW 9 7014 5379 2075 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 5599 5059 1755 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 SW 9 5218 4974 1670 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 67 67 SW 8 5068 4974 1670 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 66 66 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 SW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 SW 14 8201 5787 2483 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 76 79 SW 14 10186 8406 5102 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 79 84 SW 15 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 81 87 SW 15 15291 13868 10564 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 82 88 SW 16 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 83 89 SW 16 15682 14814 11510 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 83 87 SW 16 15291 13868 10564 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 83 85 SW 17 14526 12958 9654 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 82 83 SW 16 13577 11309 8005 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 79 79 SW 14 10186 8406 5102 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 75 75 SW 12 8313 6863 3559 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 9 7014 5379 2075 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 8 5394 4974 1670 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 7 5068 4974 1670 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 67 N 7 5068 4974 1670 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 71 74 N 7 8201 5787 2483 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 75 80 N 7 11558 8518 5214 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 78 84 N 7 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 79 85 N 6 14526 12958 9654 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 79 85 N 6 14526 12958 9654 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 80 84 N 6 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 81 83 N 6 13577 11309 8005 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 80 81 N 6 12422 8717 5413 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 78 78 N 5 8760 8295 4991 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 74 74 N 3 8201 5787 2483 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 70 70 N 2 5599 5059 1755 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 68 68 N 2 5218 4974 1670 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 N 5 5599 5059 1755 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 73 76 N 6 8425 7994 4690 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 78 83 NE 6 13577 11309 8005 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 81 87 NE 6 15291 13868 10564 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 82 88 NE 6 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 82 88 NE 6 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 83 87 NE 6 15291 13868 10564 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 84 86 NE 6 14954 13437 10133 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 83 84 NE 6 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 80 80 NE 5 11558 8518 5214 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 76 76 NE 3 8425 7994 4690 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 72 72 NE 2 7014 5379 2075 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 69 69 E 2 5394 4974 1670 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 67 67 S 2 5068 4974 1670 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 66 66 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 N 5 8089 5583 2279 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 77 80 NE 5 11558 8518 5214 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 82 87 NE 6 15291 13868 10564 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 85 91 E 7 15855 15423 12119 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 87 93 E 7 17112 15731 12427 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 88 93 SE 8 17112 15731 12427 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 89 93 SE 9 17112 15731 12427 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 89 91 S 10 15855 15423 12119 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 88 89 S 10 15682 14814 11510 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 84 84 S 9 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 80 80 S 7 11558 8518 5214 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 76 76 S 6 8425 7994 4690 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 73 73 S 6 8089 5583 2279 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 71 71 S 6 5805 5209 1905 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 70 70 S 6 5599 5059 1755 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 S 6 5218 4974 1670 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 67 67 S 6 5068 4974 1670 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 65 65 S 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 S 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 S 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 S 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 S 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 S 7 5805 5209 1905 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 76 78 S 8 8760 8295 4991 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 81 84 S 8 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 84 88 S 9 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 84 88 S 9 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 85 89 S 10 15682 14814 11510 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 85 88 S 10 15516 14341 11037 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 85 86 SW 12 14954 13437 10133 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 84 84 W 10 14036 12170 8866 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 81 81 W 9 12422 8717 5413 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 77 77 W 7 8537 8183 4879 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 5 8089 5583 2279 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 3 5599 5059 1755 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 67 67 NW 3 5068 4974 1670 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 65 65 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com