Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 54 54 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 59 61 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 63 66 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 65 69 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 67 71 SW 16 3251 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 69 72 SW 17 3468 3468 164 White 0
1 PM Sun 68 71 SW 20 3251 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 67 68 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 66 68 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 64 65 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 63 64 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 61 61 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 SW 24 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 SW 25 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 SW 26 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SW 25 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 SW 15 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 47 48 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 51 53 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 54 58 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 57 63 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 60 67 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 62 69 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 64 70 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 65 70 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 66 69 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 66 68 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 58 59 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 62 65 W 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 66 70 NW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 69 74 NW 5 3899 3899 595 White 0
12 Noon Tue 71 77 NW 5 4545 4545 1241 White 0
1 PM Tue 73 79 NW 6 4973 4973 1669 White 0
2 PM Tue 74 79 NW 7 4973 4973 1669 White 0
3 PM Tue 75 79 NW 8 4973 4973 1669 White 0
4 PM Tue 76 78 NW 8 4759 4759 1455 White 0
5 PM Tue 75 76 NW 8 4329 4329 1025 White 0
6 PM Tue 73 73 NW 8 3683 3683 379 White 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 N 7 3251 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 63 65 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 66 69 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 70 75 NE 6 4114 4114 810 White 0
11 AM Wed 73 80 NE 6 5187 5187 1883 White 25
12 Noon Wed 75 82 NE 6 5608 5608 2304 White 27
1 PM Wed 77 84 N 5 6027 6027 2723 White 29
2 PM Wed 78 84 N 5 6027 6027 2723 White 29
3 PM Wed 79 83 N 5 5817 5817 2513 White 28
4 PM Wed 80 83 NW 6 5817 5817 2513 White 28
5 PM Wed 79 80 NW 6 5187 5187 1883 White 25
6 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 4545 4545 1241 White 0
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 3 4114 4114 810 White 0
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 2 3468 3468 164 White 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 S 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 SE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 71 74 SE 5 3899 3899 595 White 0
10 AM Thu 75 80 S 6 5187 5187 1883 White 25
11 AM Thu 78 84 S 7 6027 6027 2723 White 29
12 Noon Thu 80 87 S 8 6653 6653 3349 White 32
1 PM Thu 81 88 S 9 6861 6861 3557 White 33
2 PM Thu 82 88 S 10 6861 6861 3557 White 33
3 PM Thu 83 87 S 10 6653 6653 3349 White 32
4 PM Thu 83 86 SW 10 6444 6444 3140 White 31
5 PM Thu 82 83 SW 10 5817 5817 2513 White 28
6 PM Thu 80 80 SW 10 5187 5187 1883 White 25
7 PM Thu 78 78 SW 10 4759 4759 1455 White 0
8 PM Thu 75 75 SW 9 4114 4114 810 White 0
9 PM Thu 73 73 SW 8 3683 3683 379 White 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 S 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 SW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 SW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 68 70 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 72 76 S 6 4329 4329 1025 White 0
10 AM Fri 76 82 SE 6 5608 5608 2304 White 27
11 AM Fri 79 86 E 7 6444 6444 3140 White 31
12 Noon Fri 81 89 SE 7 7069 7069 3765 White 34
1 PM Fri 83 91 S 8 7484 7484 4180 White 36
2 PM Fri 84 91 S 8 7484 7484 4180 White 36
3 PM Fri 85 90 S 9 7276 7276 3972 White 35
4 PM Fri 85 88 S 9 6861 6861 3557 White 33
5 PM Fri 84 85 S 9 6236 6236 2932 White 30
6 PM Fri 82 82 S 8 5608 5608 2304 White 27
7 PM Fri 79 79 S 6 4973 4973 1669 White 0
8 PM Fri 76 76 S 5 4329 4329 1025 White 0
9 PM Fri 74 74 S 5 3899 3899 595 White 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 S 5 3468 3468 164 White 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 SW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com