Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 45 45 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 W 1 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 N 2 5225 4987 1683 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 64 66 N 3 5514 5392 2088 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 68 70 NE 2 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 71 73 NE 2 6509 5920 2616 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 73 75 NE 3 7080 6192 2888 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 73 74 NE 3 6796 6044 2740 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 73 73 NE 3 6509 5920 2616 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 70 70 E 3 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 64 64 NE 3 5434 5300 1996 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 5225 4987 1683 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 5065 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 1 4991 4974 1670 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 1 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 1 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 1 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 N 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 62 NE 3 5355 5140 1836 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 66 66 NE 3 5514 5392 2088 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 70 70 NE 3 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 72 72 E 5 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 72 72 SE 5 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 72 72 SE 5 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 71 71 E 3 6055 5673 2369 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 68 68 E 3 5683 5471 2167 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 65 65 E 3 5474 5352 2048 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 62 62 E 3 5355 5140 1836 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 59 59 E 3 5145 4974 1670 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 57 57 SE 3 4991 4974 1670 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 SW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 W 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 N 3 5225 4987 1683 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 65 66 N 5 5514 5392 2088 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 69 71 N 5 6055 5673 2369 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 70 72 NE 5 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 71 73 NE 5 6509 5920 2616 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 71 72 NE 5 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 70 70 NE 3 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 69 69 NE 3 5807 5511 2207 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 66 66 NE 3 5514 5392 2088 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 62 62 N 3 5355 5140 1836 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 5065 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 W 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NW 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 N 5 5225 4987 1683 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 65 67 N 6 5559 5431 2127 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 69 72 N 6 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 71 74 N 6 6796 6044 2740 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 72 74 N 6 6796 6044 2740 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 72 73 N 6 6509 5920 2616 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 71 71 N 6 6055 5673 2369 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 70 70 N 6 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 67 67 N 6 5559 5431 2127 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 63 63 N 6 5395 5220 1916 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 5145 4974 1670 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 N 9 4991 4974 1670 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 N 10 5434 5300 1996 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 66 69 N 10 5807 5511 2207 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 67 70 N 9 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 68 70 N 8 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 68 69 N 7 5807 5511 2207 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 67 67 N 7 5559 5431 2127 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 66 66 N 6 5514 5392 2088 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 63 63 N 5 5395 5220 1916 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 5145 4974 1670 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 55 55 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 N 6 5065 4974 1670 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 64 66 N 6 5514 5392 2088 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 68 71 N 6 6055 5673 2369 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 70 73 N 5 6509 5920 2616 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 71 73 N 3 6509 5920 2616 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 71 72 NE 3 6220 5797 2493 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 70 70 E 3 5931 5551 2247 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 68 68 E 3 5683 5471 2167 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 65 65 SE 3 5474 5352 2048 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 60 60 S 3 5225 4987 1683 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 56 56 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 S 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 S 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 S 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com