Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 58 58 SW 30 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 31 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 31 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 SW 32 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SW 32 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 SW 33 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 66 67 SW 33 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 68 70 SW 33 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 69 71 W 40 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 71 73 W 32 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 71 72 W 30 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 70 70 W 25 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 71 71 W 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 63 63 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 59 62 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 61 63 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 60 60 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 61 61 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 55 57 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 58 60 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 63 65 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 64 65 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 63 63 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 64 64 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 SW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 S 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 S 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 SE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 SE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 E 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 63 64 SE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 65 66 S 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 67 68 S 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 68 68 SW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 67 67 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 62 63 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 66 67 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 68 69 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 70 71 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 71 72 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 70 70 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 71 71 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 65 67 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 69 71 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 71 73 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 73 75 NE 5 3346 3346 42 White 0
2 PM Wed 74 75 NE 5 3346 3346 42 White 0
3 PM Wed 73 73 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 74 74 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 68 68 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 W 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com