Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 N 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 71 N 16 10233 9342 6038 White 4
11 AM Mon 68 72 N 18 10442 10442 7138 White 5
12 Noon Mon 70 75 N 18 11064 11064 7760 White 8
1 PM Mon 73 78 N 17 11681 11645 8341 White 11
2 PM Mon 74 79 N 16 11887 11729 8425 White 12
3 PM Mon 75 78 N 15 11681 11645 8341 White 11
4 PM Mon 75 77 N 15 11476 11476 8172 White 10
5 PM Mon 76 76 N 14 11271 11271 7967 White 9
6 PM Mon 75 75 NE 12 11064 11064 7760 White 8
7 PM Mon 71 71 NE 9 10233 9342 6038 White 4
8 PM Mon 68 68 NE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 NE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 NE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 66 N 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 72 N 15 10442 10442 7138 White 5
11 AM Tue 70 74 N 16 10858 10858 7554 White 7
12 Noon Tue 72 76 N 15 11271 11271 7967 White 9
1 PM Tue 75 80 NE 14 12092 11815 8511 White 13
2 PM Tue 76 80 NE 13 12092 11815 8511 White 13
3 PM Tue 77 80 NE 13 12092 11815 8511 White 13
4 PM Tue 77 79 NE 13 11887 11729 8425 White 12
5 PM Tue 78 78 NE 12 11681 11645 8341 White 11
6 PM Tue 77 77 NE 9 11476 11476 8172 White 10
7 PM Tue 73 73 NE 7 10650 10650 7346 White 6
8 PM Tue 70 70 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 76 N 13 11271 11271 7967 White 9
11 AM Wed 74 78 N 14 11681 11645 8341 White 11
12 Noon Wed 76 81 N 14 12298 11984 8680 White 14
1 PM Wed 79 84 N 13 12910 12489 9185 White 17
2 PM Wed 80 84 N 12 12910 12489 9185 White 17
3 PM Wed 81 84 N 10 12910 12489 9185 White 17
4 PM Wed 81 83 NE 10 12707 12321 9017 White 16
5 PM Wed 82 82 NE 9 12503 12153 8849 White 15
6 PM Wed 81 81 N 8 12298 11984 8680 White 14
7 PM Wed 77 77 N 7 11476 11476 8172 White 10
8 PM Wed 74 74 N 6 10858 10858 7554 White 7
9 PM Wed 70 70 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 72 N 8 10442 10442 7138 White 5
10 AM Thu 76 79 NE 8 11887 11729 8425 White 12
11 AM Thu 76 80 NE 8 12092 11815 8511 White 13
12 Noon Thu 78 83 NE 8 12707 12321 9017 White 16
1 PM Thu 81 86 NE 8 13314 12955 9651 White 19
2 PM Thu 82 87 NE 8 13515 13289 9985 White 20
3 PM Thu 83 86 NE 8 13314 12955 9651 White 19
4 PM Thu 83 85 NE 8 13112 12657 9353 White 18
5 PM Thu 84 84 NE 8 12910 12489 9185 White 17
6 PM Thu 83 83 NE 8 12707 12321 9017 White 16
7 PM Thu 79 79 N 7 11887 11729 8425 White 12
8 PM Thu 76 76 N 6 11271 11271 7967 White 9
9 PM Thu 72 72 N 6 10442 10442 7138 White 5
10 PM Thu 71 71 N 5 10233 9342 6038 White 4
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 N 8 11064 11064 7760 White 8
10 AM Fri 78 81 NE 9 12298 11984 8680 White 14
11 AM Fri 79 83 NE 9 12707 12321 9017 White 16
12 Noon Fri 81 86 NE 9 13314 12955 9651 White 19
1 PM Fri 84 89 NE 9 13918 13918 10614 White 22
2 PM Fri 85 90 NE 8 14119 14119 10815 White 23
3 PM Fri 86 89 NE 8 13918 13918 10614 White 22
4 PM Fri 86 88 NE 8 13716 13620 10316 White 21
5 PM Fri 87 88 NE 7 13716 13620 10316 White 21
6 PM Fri 86 86 NE 6 13314 12955 9651 White 19
7 PM Fri 81 81 N 6 12298 11984 8680 White 14
8 PM Fri 77 77 N 5 11476 11476 8172 White 10
9 PM Fri 74 74 N 5 10858 10858 7554 White 7
10 PM Fri 73 73 N 3 10650 10650 7346 White 6
11 PM Fri 70 70 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 76 N 7 11271 11271 7967 White 9
10 AM Sat 80 83 N 7 12707 12321 9017 White 16
11 AM Sat 81 85 NE 7 13112 12657 9353 White 18
12 Noon Sat 83 88 NE 7 13716 13620 10316 White 21
1 PM Sat 86 91 NE 7 14319 14319 11015 White 24
2 PM Sat 87 92 NE 7 14519 14519 11215 White 25
3 PM Sat 88 91 NE 7 14319 14319 11015 White 24
4 PM Sat 88 90 NE 6 14119 14119 10815 White 23
5 PM Sat 89 89 NE 6 13918 13918 10614 White 22
6 PM Sat 88 88 N 6 13716 13620 10316 White 21
7 PM Sat 83 83 N 5 12707 12321 9017 White 16
8 PM Sat 79 79 NW 5 11887 11729 8425 White 12
9 PM Sat 76 76 NW 3 11271 11271 7967 White 9
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 3 11064 11064 7760 White 8
11 PM Sat 72 72 W 3 10442 10442 7138 White 5
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 W 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com