Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 61 62 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 63 64 E 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 64 65 E 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 65 66 E 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 66 66 SE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 66 66 SE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 SE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 S 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 S 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 SW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 SW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SW 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 SW 15 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 SW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 55 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 59 60 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 61 62 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 61 62 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 62 62 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 63 63 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 SW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 SW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 SW 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 SW 20 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SW 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 SW 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 SW 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 SW 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 SW 20 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 W 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 W 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 W 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 W 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 NW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 NW 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 NW 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 50 NW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 51 NW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 NW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 NW 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 NW 15 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 NW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 W 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 NW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 NE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 40 NE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 E 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 49 E 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 50 E 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 51 SE 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 51 SE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 51 S 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 S 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 S 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 SW 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 SW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 SW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 W 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 W 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 W 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 E 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 E 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 E 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 52 SE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 52 SE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 53 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 SW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 SW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 47 47 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 SW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 SW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 SW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 NW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 NW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NE 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 NE 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 NE 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 NE 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 53 55 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 54 56 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 55 56 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 W 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 W 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 W 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 W 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com