Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SE 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 E 2 4202 4202 898 White 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 E 3 5290 5290 1986 White 12
10 AM Tue 74 77 SE 6 6155 6155 2851 White 16
11 AM Tue 76 80 SE 7 6793 6793 3489 White 19
12 Noon Tue 78 83 SE 8 7428 7428 4124 White 22
1 PM Tue 79 84 S 8 7639 7639 4335 White 23
2 PM Tue 81 85 S 8 7850 7850 4546 White 24
3 PM Tue 82 85 S 8 7850 7850 4546 White 24
4 PM Tue 82 84 S 8 7639 7639 4335 White 23
5 PM Tue 82 83 S 8 7428 7428 4124 White 22
6 PM Tue 81 81 S 8 7005 7005 3701 White 20
7 PM Tue 79 79 S 7 6581 6581 3277 White 18
8 PM Tue 76 76 S 7 5939 5939 2635 White 15
9 PM Tue 74 74 S 7 5506 5506 2202 White 13
10 PM Tue 71 71 S 8 4856 4856 1552 White 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 S 8 4420 4420 1116 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 S 8 3983 3983 679 White 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 SW 8 3545 3545 241 White 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 S 6 3983 3983 679 White 0
8 AM Wed 71 73 S 5 5290 5290 1986 White 12
9 AM Wed 75 78 S 6 6369 6369 3065 White 17
10 AM Wed 79 84 SE 8 7639 7639 4335 White 23
11 AM Wed 81 88 SE 9 8480 8480 5176 White 27
12 Noon Wed 83 91 SE 9 9110 9110 5806 White 30
1 PM Wed 84 92 SE 9 9324 9324 6020 White 31
2 PM Wed 86 93 SE 9 9537 9537 6233 White 32
3 PM Wed 87 92 S 9 9324 9324 6020 White 31
4 PM Wed 87 91 S 10 9110 9110 5806 White 30
5 PM Wed 87 89 S 10 8689 8689 5385 White 28
6 PM Wed 85 85 S 10 7850 7850 4546 White 24
7 PM Wed 83 83 S 9 7428 7428 4124 White 22
8 PM Wed 80 80 S 9 6793 6793 3489 White 19
9 PM Wed 77 77 S 9 6155 6155 2851 White 16
10 PM Wed 74 74 S 8 5506 5506 2202 White 13
11 PM Wed 71 71 S 8 4856 4856 1552 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 SW 8 4420 4420 1116 White 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 SW 8 3983 3983 679 White 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 SW 8 3545 3545 241 White 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 S 6 3983 3983 679 White 0
8 AM Thu 71 73 S 5 5290 5290 1986 White 12
9 AM Thu 75 78 S 6 6369 6369 3065 White 17
10 AM Thu 79 84 S 8 7639 7639 4335 White 23
11 AM Thu 81 88 S 10 8480 8480 5176 White 27
12 Noon Thu 84 92 S 12 9324 9324 6020 White 31
1 PM Thu 86 94 S 13 9750 9750 6446 White 33
2 PM Thu 87 94 S 13 9750 9750 6446 White 33
3 PM Thu 89 95 S 14 9963 9963 6659 White 34
4 PM Thu 89 93 S 14 9537 9537 6233 White 32
5 PM Thu 88 90 S 14 8899 8899 5595 White 29
6 PM Thu 87 87 S 14 8271 8271 4967 White 26
7 PM Thu 84 84 S 13 7639 7639 4335 White 23
8 PM Thu 81 81 S 13 7005 7005 3701 White 20
9 PM Thu 78 78 S 13 6369 6369 3065 White 17
10 PM Thu 75 75 SW 14 5723 5723 2419 White 14
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 14 5073 5073 1769 White 11
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SW 14 4420 4420 1116 White 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SW 13 3983 3983 679 White 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 13 3326 3326 22 White 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SW 13 3326 3326 22 White 0
8 AM Fri 68 70 SW 13 4637 4637 1333 White 0
9 AM Fri 72 75 SW 13 5723 5723 2419 White 14
10 AM Fri 76 81 SW 14 7005 7005 3701 White 20
11 AM Fri 80 87 SW 14 8271 8271 4967 White 26
12 Noon Fri 83 90 SW 15 8899 8899 5595 White 29
1 PM Fri 85 93 SW 16 9537 9537 6233 White 32
2 PM Fri 86 93 SW 17 9537 9537 6233 White 32
3 PM Fri 87 92 SW 18 9324 9324 6020 White 31
4 PM Fri 87 90 SW 18 8899 8899 5595 White 29
5 PM Fri 86 88 SW 20 8480 8480 5176 White 27
6 PM Fri 84 84 SW 20 7639 7639 4335 White 23
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 20 7005 7005 3701 White 20
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 20 6581 6581 3277 White 18
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 18 5723 5723 2419 White 14
10 PM Fri 72 72 SW 18 5073 5073 1769 White 11
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 18 4202 4202 898 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 18 3545 3545 241 White 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 SW 22 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SW 21 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 SW 20 3545 3545 241 White 0
9 AM Sat 68 71 SW 17 4856 4856 1552 White 0
10 AM Sat 71 76 SW 17 5939 5939 2635 White 15
11 AM Sat 75 81 SW 16 7005 7005 3701 White 20
12 Noon Sat 78 85 SW 16 7850 7850 4546 White 24
1 PM Sat 80 87 SW 17 8271 8271 4967 White 26
2 PM Sat 81 88 W 18 8480 8480 5176 White 27
3 PM Sat 82 87 W 18 8271 8271 4967 White 26
4 PM Sat 82 85 W 20 7850 7850 4546 White 24
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 20 7428 7428 4124 White 22
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 18 6581 6581 3277 White 18
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 17 6155 6155 2851 White 16
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 16 5506 5506 2202 White 13
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 14 4856 4856 1552 White 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 13 4202 4202 898 White 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 SW 12 3545 3545 241 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 W 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 W 8 3764 3764 460 White 0
9 AM Sun 69 72 W 7 5073 5073 1769 White 11
10 AM Sun 72 77 NW 6 6155 6155 2851 White 16
11 AM Sun 75 81 NW 5 7005 7005 3701 White 20
12 Noon Sun 78 85 NW 5 7850 7850 4546 White 24
1 PM Sun 81 88 NW 6 8480 8480 5176 White 27
2 PM Sun 83 90 NW 7 8899 8899 5595 White 29
3 PM Sun 84 89 NW 9 8689 8689 5385 White 28
4 PM Sun 85 88 NW 9 8480 8480 5176 White 27
5 PM Sun 85 87 NW 10 8271 8271 4967 White 26
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 9 7639 7639 4335 White 23
7 PM Sun 82 82 NW 8 7217 7217 3913 White 21
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 7 6581 6581 3277 White 18
9 PM Sun 77 77 NW 6 6155 6155 2851 White 16
10 PM Sun 74 74 NW 5 5506 5506 2202 White 13
11 PM Sun 70 70 NW 3 4637 4637 1333 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NW 3 4202 4202 898 White 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 NW 3 3545 3545 241 White 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com