Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 33 33 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NE 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 NE 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 50 52 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 54 57 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 55 58 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 57 59 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 58 59 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 58 58 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 58 60 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 59 60 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 60 61 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 61 61 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 60 60 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 61 64 NE 6 3579 3579 275 White 0
12 Noon Thu 62 65 NE 5 3792 3792 488 White 0
1 PM Thu 63 65 NE 5 3792 3792 488 White 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 NE 5 3792 3792 488 White 0
3 PM Thu 65 65 NE 3 3792 3792 488 White 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 NE 3 3579 3579 275 White 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 N 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 58 60 N 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 61 63 N 1 3366 3366 62 White 0
12 Noon Fri 63 65 NE 2 3792 3792 488 White 0
1 PM Fri 65 67 NE 2 4217 4217 913 White 0
2 PM Fri 66 67 NE 2 4217 4217 913 White 0
3 PM Fri 66 66 E 3 4005 4005 701 White 0
4 PM Fri 65 65 E 3 3792 3792 488 White 0
5 PM Fri 63 63 E 3 3366 3366 62 White 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 SE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 SE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 S 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 SW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 SW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 SW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 NE 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 NE 2 3366 3366 62 White 0
12 Noon Sat 63 65 NE 2 3792 3792 488 White 0
1 PM Sat 64 66 NE 3 4005 4005 701 White 0
2 PM Sat 65 66 NE 3 4005 4005 701 White 0
3 PM Sat 65 65 NE 3 3792 3792 488 White 0
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 3 3579 3579 275 White 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 E 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 E 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 E 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 E 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 E 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NE 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 N 6 3366 3366 62 White 0
1 PM Sun 62 63 NE 6 3366 3366 62 White 0
2 PM Sun 63 64 NE 5 3579 3579 275 White 0
3 PM Sun 63 63 NE 5 3366 3366 62 White 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com