Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 74 74 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 81 82 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 88 91 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 93 98 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 98 105 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 100 109 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 103 112 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 104 112 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 103 110 SW 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 103 108 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 102 105 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 100 101 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 98 98 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 93 93 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 89 89 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 87 87 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 78 78 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 75 75 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 80 81 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 86 89 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 89 94 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 94 101 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 97 106 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 99 108 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 101 109 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 101 108 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 100 105 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 99 102 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 96 97 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 92 92 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 89 89 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 86 86 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 83 83 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 81 81 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 76 76 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 79 80 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 84 86 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 89 93 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 93 98 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 97 104 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 99 106 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 101 108 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 101 107 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 100 104 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 99 101 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 96 97 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 93 93 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 90 90 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 87 87 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 84 84 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 77 77 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 75 75 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 79 80 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 84 87 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 89 94 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 93 100 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 97 105 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 99 107 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 100 108 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 101 107 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 101 105 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 99 101 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 97 98 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 93 93 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 90 90 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 86 86 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 83 83 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 80 80 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 76 76 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 74 74 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 78 79 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 83 86 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 87 92 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 91 98 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 95 103 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 98 107 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 99 107 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 100 106 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 100 104 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 98 100 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 96 97 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 93 93 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 90 90 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 87 87 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 84 84 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 81 81 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 77 77 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 76 76 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 73 73 SW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 80 81 S 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 85 88 S 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 89 94 S 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 93 99 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 96 103 S 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 98 105 S 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 99 106 S 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 100 105 S 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 100 104 S 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 98 100 S 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 96 97 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 94 94 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 91 91 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 88 88 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 85 85 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 83 83 S 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 76 76 SW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 75 75 SW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com