Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 50 50 SW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 65 67 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 69 72 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 73 76 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 75 77 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 77 79 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 77 78 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 77 78 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 77 77 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 74 74 SW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 69 69 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 S 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 66 66 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 70 70 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 73 74 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 74 75 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 75 77 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 75 77 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 74 76 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 73 74 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 70 70 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 67 71 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 69 74 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 70 75 SW 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 71 75 W 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 71 73 W 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 58 62 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 62 67 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 64 70 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 66 72 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 67 73 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 68 72 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 69 71 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 68 69 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 55 57 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 59 62 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 63 68 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 66 72 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 67 73 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 68 73 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 68 72 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 68 70 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 67 68 N 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 65 65 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 60 63 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 64 69 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 67 73 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 69 75 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 70 75 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 71 75 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 71 73 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 70 71 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com