Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 29 29 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 N 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 9 5471 5180 1876 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 51 53 N 12 6250 5786 2482 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 53 55 N 12 6633 6039 2735 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 57 59 N 12 7395 6801 3497 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 57 59 N 10 7395 6801 3497 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 58 59 N 9 7395 6801 3497 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 58 58 N 8 7205 6611 3307 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 55 55 NE 7 6633 6039 2735 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 5903 5571 2267 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 5364 5119 1815 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 43 43 N 6 5122 4974 1670 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 41 41 N 6 5011 4974 1670 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 39 39 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 N 6 5687 5356 2052 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 53 54 N 6 6442 5893 2589 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 55 57 NE 6 7015 6421 3117 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 58 60 NE 6 7585 6991 3687 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 59 61 NE 6 7774 7180 3876 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 59 60 NE 5 7585 6991 3687 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 58 58 NE 5 7205 6611 3307 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 56 56 NE 5 6824 6230 2926 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 53 53 NE 3 6250 5786 2482 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 51 51 NW 3 5903 5571 2267 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 48 48 NW 3 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 45 45 W 3 5274 5063 1759 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 3 5122 4974 1670 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 40 40 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 W 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 NW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 N 8 5687 5356 2052 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 55 57 N 9 7015 6421 3117 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 59 61 N 10 7774 7180 3876 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 60 62 N 10 7962 7368 4064 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 60 62 N 12 7962 7368 4064 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 60 61 N 10 7774 7180 3876 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 59 59 N 10 7395 6801 3497 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 7015 6421 3117 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 54 54 N 10 6442 5893 2589 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 5903 5571 2267 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 48 48 N 10 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 46 46 N 10 5364 5119 1815 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 10 5186 5007 1703 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 9 5067 4974 1670 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 N 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 N 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 N 12 5122 4974 1670 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 48 50 N 13 5795 5463 2159 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 51 53 N 13 6250 5786 2482 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 53 55 N 13 6633 6039 2735 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 54 56 N 13 6824 6230 2926 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 54 55 N 13 6633 6039 2735 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 54 54 NE 13 6442 5893 2589 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 53 53 NE 13 6250 5786 2482 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 51 51 NE 13 5903 5571 2267 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 13 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 45 45 N 13 5274 5063 1759 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 42 42 N 13 5067 4974 1670 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 39 39 N 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 N 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 N 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 N 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 N 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 N 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 N 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 N 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 42 N 13 5067 4974 1670 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 46 48 N 13 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 49 51 N 13 5903 5571 2267 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 51 53 N 13 6250 5786 2482 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 52 54 NE 12 6442 5893 2589 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 52 53 NE 12 6250 5786 2482 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 52 52 N 10 6058 5678 2374 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 50 50 N 10 5795 5463 2159 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 48 48 N 9 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 44 44 N 9 5186 5007 1703 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 41 41 N 8 5011 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 38 38 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 44 N 8 5186 5007 1703 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 50 52 N 8 6058 5678 2374 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 54 56 N 8 6824 6230 2926 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 55 57 N 8 7015 6421 3117 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 55 57 N 8 7015 6421 3117 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 55 56 N 8 6824 6230 2926 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 55 55 N 8 6633 6039 2735 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 54 54 N 7 6442 5893 2589 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 7 5903 5571 2267 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 48 48 N 7 5579 5268 1964 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 44 44 N 7 5186 5007 1703 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 41 41 N 7 5011 4974 1670 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 39 39 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com