Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 43 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 43 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 43 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 42 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 46 46 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 52 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 54 54 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 59 59 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 59 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 60 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 60 60 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 59 59 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 58 58 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 55 55 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 53 53 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 51 51 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 44 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 52 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 54 56 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 57 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 56 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 57 57 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 56 56 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 39 39 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 37 37 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 36 36 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 36 36 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 37 37 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 46 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 51 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 54 56 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 59 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 61 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 61 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 60 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 59 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 55 55 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 48 48 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 45 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 38 38 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 39 39 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 48 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 54 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 57 58 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 59 60 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 62 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 62 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 62 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 60 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 57 57 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 48 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 47 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 46 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 39 39 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 42 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 48 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 51 52 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 56 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 55 57 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 56 58 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 57 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 55 55 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 54 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 51 51 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 43 43 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 42 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 47 49 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 50 52 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 52 54 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 53 55 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 53 54 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 53 53 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 52 52 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 49 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 36 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 36 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com