Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 66 66 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 72 72 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 77 79 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 82 85 SW 14 4178 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 86 91 SW 14 5480 3304 0 White 27
12 Noon Tue 89 95 SW 14 6334 3304 0 White 31
1 PM Tue 91 97 SW 14 6758 3304 0 White 33
2 PM Tue 93 98 SW 14 6970 3304 0 White 34
3 PM Tue 94 98 SW 15 6970 3304 0 White 34
4 PM Tue 95 97 SW 16 6758 3304 0 White 33
5 PM Tue 94 95 SW 17 6334 3304 0 White 31
6 PM Tue 90 90 SW 16 5265 3304 0 White 26
7 PM Tue 84 84 SW 14 3959 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 79 79 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 75 75 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 SW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 SW 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 80 83 SW 13 3740 3740 436 White 0
11 AM Wed 85 89 SW 12 5050 3304 0 White 25
12 Noon Wed 87 92 SW 12 5694 3304 0 White 28
1 PM Wed 89 95 W 12 6334 3304 0 White 31
2 PM Wed 91 96 W 13 6546 3304 0 White 32
3 PM Wed 92 96 W 14 6546 3304 0 White 32
4 PM Wed 93 95 W 14 6334 3304 0 White 31
5 PM Wed 92 93 W 14 5907 3304 0 White 29
6 PM Wed 87 87 W 13 4614 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 12 3521 3521 217 White 0
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 79 82 NE 8 3521 3521 217 White 0
11 AM Thu 83 88 NE 8 4832 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 87 93 NE 8 5907 3304 0 White 29
1 PM Thu 89 95 NE 7 6334 3304 0 White 31
2 PM Thu 90 95 NE 6 6334 3304 0 White 31
3 PM Thu 92 96 NE 6 6546 3304 0 White 32
4 PM Thu 93 95 E 5 6334 3304 0 White 31
5 PM Thu 92 93 E 5 5907 3304 0 White 29
6 PM Thu 90 90 E 5 5265 3304 0 White 26
7 PM Thu 85 85 E 5 4178 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 81 81 SE 5 3300 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 SE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 S 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 SW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 80 83 S 3 3740 3740 436 White 0
11 AM Fri 84 89 SE 3 5050 3304 0 White 25
12 Noon Fri 87 93 SE 3 5907 3304 0 White 29
1 PM Fri 89 95 S 5 6334 3304 0 White 31
2 PM Fri 91 96 S 6 6546 3304 0 White 32
3 PM Fri 92 96 S 6 6546 3304 0 White 32
4 PM Fri 92 94 S 7 6121 3304 0 White 30
5 PM Fri 91 92 S 8 5694 3304 0 White 28
6 PM Fri 89 89 S 8 5050 3304 0 White 25
7 PM Fri 87 87 S 9 4614 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 84 84 S 9 3959 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 80 80 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 77 79 S 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 80 83 S 8 3740 3740 436 White 0
11 AM Sat 84 89 S 8 5050 3304 0 White 25
12 Noon Sat 87 93 S 8 5907 3304 0 White 29
1 PM Sat 90 96 S 8 6546 3304 0 White 32
2 PM Sat 92 97 SW 9 6758 3304 0 White 33
3 PM Sat 93 97 SW 9 6758 3304 0 White 33
4 PM Sat 93 95 SW 9 6334 3304 0 White 31
5 PM Sat 92 93 SW 9 5907 3304 0 White 29
6 PM Sat 90 90 SW 9 5265 3304 0 White 26
7 PM Sat 87 87 SW 9 4614 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 84 84 SW 9 3959 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 80 80 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 77 77 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 S 8 3300 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 83 86 S 9 4396 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 87 92 S 9 5694 3304 0 White 28
12 Noon Sun 90 96 S 10 6546 3304 0 White 32
1 PM Sun 93 99 S 12 7181 3304 0 White 35
2 PM Sun 94 99 SW 12 7181 3304 0 White 35
3 PM Sun 95 99 SW 13 7181 3304 0 White 35
4 PM Sun 95 97 SW 14 6758 3304 0 White 33
5 PM Sun 94 95 SW 14 6334 3304 0 White 31
6 PM Sun 91 91 SW 14 5480 3304 0 White 27
7 PM Sun 89 89 SW 13 5050 3304 0 White 25
8 PM Sun 85 85 SW 12 4178 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 81 81 SW 10 3300 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 77 77 SW 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 SW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com