Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 28 28 SE 10 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 28 SE 10 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 SE 10 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 SE 10 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 SE 10 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 SE 10 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 42 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 46 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 49 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 52 SW 6 5433 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 53 SW 6 5747 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 SW 6 6060 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 S 3 6060 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 S 3 5433 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 S 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 S 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 S 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 S 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 S 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 S 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 S 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 S 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 44 W 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 48 W 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 51 W 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 54 W 2 6060 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 55 56 W 2 6631 7200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 56 56 W 2 6631 7200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 56 56 N 0 6631 7200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 54 54 N 0 6060 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 N 0 5433 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 N 0 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 N 0 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 N 0 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 44 E 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 48 E 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 51 E 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 54 E 3 6060 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 E 3 6631 7200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 56 56 E 3 6631 7200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 56 56 NE 3 6631 7200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 6355 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 NE 3 5747 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 41 E 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 46 E 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 51 E 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 53 E 3 5747 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 55 E 3 6355 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 E 3 6060 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 N 2 5433 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 N 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 N 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 N 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 N 2 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 NE 3 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 47 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 49 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 NE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 E 6 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 E 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 E 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 24 E 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 E 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 E 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 E 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 SE 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 43 SE 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 47 SE 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 47 SE 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 48 SE 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 47 47 SE 7 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 39 39 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 SE 5 5249 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com