Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 39 39 S 23 7322 7200 0 White 3
5 AM Thu 38 38 S 23 7098 7200 0 White 2
6 AM Thu 38 38 S 23 7098 7200 0 White 2
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 21 8211 8169 969 White 7
8 AM Thu 38 38 S 21 7098 7200 0 White 2
9 AM Thu 38 38 S 21 7098 7200 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 43 43 SW 20 8211 8169 969 White 7
11 AM Thu 41 41 SW 20 7768 7418 218 White 5
12 Noon Thu 41 41 SW 20 7768 7418 218 White 5
1 PM Thu 41 41 SW 20 7768 7418 218 White 5
2 PM Thu 37 37 SW 20 6875 7200 0 White 1
3 PM Thu 36 36 SW 20 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 SW 14 6875 7200 0 White 1
5 PM Thu 35 35 SW 14 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 SW 14 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 SW 12 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 SW 12 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 SW 12 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 SW 13 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 SW 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 SW 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 SW 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 SW 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 SW 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 SW 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 SW 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 SW 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 26 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 25 25 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 25 25 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 28 28 W 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 30 30 W 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 30 W 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 28 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 25 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 23 23 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 23 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 22 22 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 21 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 21 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 20 20 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 20 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 19 19 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 19 19 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 24 24 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 26 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 28 28 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 29 29 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 30 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 31 31 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 32 32 W 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 32 32 W 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 31 31 W 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 30 30 W 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 28 28 W 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 28 W 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 W 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 SW 8 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 23 S 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 S 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 S 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 S 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 S 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 29 S 13 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 31 S 18 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 33 33 S 18 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 33 33 S 18 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 34 34 S 18 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 34 34 S 18 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 34 34 S 18 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 34 34 S 21 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 S 21 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 S 21 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 S 21 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 S 21 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 S 21 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 SW 17 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 SW 17 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 SW 17 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SW 17 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SW 17 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SW 17 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 SW 12 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 SW 12 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 SW 12 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 SW 12 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 SW 12 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 30 30 SW 12 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 32 SW 7 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 34 34 SW 7 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 34 SW 7 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 35 35 SW 7 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 36 36 SW 7 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 36 36 SW 7 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 35 W 5 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 30 30 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 27 27 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 27 27 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 W 5 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 W 2 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 27 27 W 2 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 W 2 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 W 2 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 W 2 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 W 2 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 S 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 S 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 S 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 S 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 S 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 S 6 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 S 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 33 S 9 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 35 35 S 9 5407 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 36 36 S 9 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 37 37 S 9 6875 7200 0 White 1
3 PM Tue 38 38 S 9 7098 7200 0 White 2
4 PM Tue 38 38 S 14 7098 7200 0 White 2
5 PM Tue 37 37 S 14 6875 7200 0 White 1
6 PM Tue 36 36 S 14 5824 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 S 14 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 S 14 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 S 14 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 S 14 4983 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 S 14 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 S 14 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 S 14 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 S 14 4813 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 S 14 4813 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com