Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 22 22 WNW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 21 21 WNW 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 22 22 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 22 22 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 23 23 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 25 25 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 26 26 NW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 28 28 NW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 29 29 NW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 31 31 NW 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 32 32 NW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 32 32 NW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 32 32 NNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 30 30 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 27 27 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 24 24 NNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 24 24 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 23 23 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 22 22 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 NE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 21 21 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 21 21 ENE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 21 21 NE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 21 21 NE 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 21 21 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 21 21 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 21 21 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 21 21 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 24 25 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 27 29 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 30 33 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 31 34 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 33 36 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 34 36 ESE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 35 36 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 35 35 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 35 35 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 33 33 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 30 30 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 28 28 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 28 28 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 27 27 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 27 27 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 27 27 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 26 26 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 26 26 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 26 26 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 26 26 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 26 26 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 26 26 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 26 26 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 29 30 SE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 32 34 SE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 35 38 SSE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 37 40 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 39 42 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 41 43 SSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 41 42 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 41 41 SSW 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 41 41 S 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 39 39 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 36 36 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 34 34 SSE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 33 33 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 32 32 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 31 31 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com