Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 6543 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 6 5798 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 7217 7217 17 White 3
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 8106 8106 906 White 7
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 2 9205 9128 1928 White 12
10 AM Tue 67 69 NE 2 10089 10089 2889 White 16
11 AM Tue 69 75 SW 2 11416 11416 4216 White 22
12 Noon Tue 72 79 SW 2 12269 12269 5069 White 26
1 PM Tue 74 82 SW 2 12903 12903 5703 White 29
2 PM Tue 75 82 W 7 12903 12903 5703 White 29
3 PM Tue 76 82 W 7 12903 12903 5703 White 29
4 PM Tue 76 81 W 7 12692 12692 5492 White 28
5 PM Tue 74 77 W 10 11842 11842 4642 White 24
6 PM Tue 73 74 W 10 11202 11202 4002 White 21
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 10 10771 10771 3571 White 19
8 PM Tue 69 69 NW 10 10089 10089 2889 White 16
9 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 9424 9424 2224 White 13
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 10 8766 8766 1566 White 10
11 PM Tue 60 60 NW 8 8106 8106 906 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NW 8 7884 7884 684 White 6
1 AM Wed 57 57 NW 8 7439 7439 239 White 4
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 7217 7217 17 White 3
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 6768 7200 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 5798 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 3 5798 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 3 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 6993 7200 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 60 61 W 2 8327 8327 1127 White 8
9 AM Wed 65 67 W 2 9643 9643 2443 White 14
10 AM Wed 68 72 W 2 10771 10771 3571 White 19
11 AM Wed 71 77 W 6 11842 11842 4642 White 24
12 Noon Wed 74 81 W 6 12692 12692 5492 White 28
1 PM Wed 76 83 W 6 13114 13114 5914 White 30
2 PM Wed 78 85 W 10 13533 13533 6333 White 32
3 PM Wed 79 85 W 10 13533 13533 6333 White 32
4 PM Wed 79 83 W 10 13114 13114 5914 White 30
5 PM Wed 77 79 W 15 12269 12269 5069 White 26
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 15 11842 11842 4642 White 24
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 15 11202 11202 4002 White 21
8 PM Wed 71 71 W 15 10555 10555 3355 White 18
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 15 9860 9860 2660 White 15
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 15 9205 9128 1928 White 12
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 7 8546 8546 1346 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NW 7 8106 8106 906 White 7
1 AM Thu 58 58 NW 7 7662 7662 462 White 5
2 AM Thu 57 57 NW 7 7439 7439 239 White 4
3 AM Thu 55 55 NW 7 6993 7200 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 53 53 NW 7 6543 7200 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NW 3 6543 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NW 3 5798 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 7217 7217 17 White 3
8 AM Thu 61 62 NW 3 8546 8546 1346 White 9
9 AM Thu 66 69 NW 3 10089 10089 2889 White 16
10 AM Thu 69 74 NW 3 11202 11202 4002 White 21
11 AM Thu 72 78 SW 6 12057 12057 4857 White 25
12 Noon Thu 75 83 SW 6 13114 13114 5914 White 30
1 PM Thu 77 85 SW 6 13533 13533 6333 White 32
2 PM Thu 79 87 SW 6 13950 13950 6750 White 34
3 PM Thu 80 87 SW 6 13950 13950 6750 White 34
4 PM Thu 80 85 SW 6 13533 13533 6333 White 32
5 PM Thu 78 81 W 12 12692 12692 5492 White 28
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 12 12057 12057 4857 White 25
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 12 11416 11416 4216 White 22
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 10771 10771 3571 White 19
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 12 10089 10089 2889 White 16
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 9424 9424 2224 White 13
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 7 8766 8766 1566 White 10
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 7 8327 8327 1127 White 8
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 7 7884 7884 684 White 6
2 AM Fri 58 58 NW 7 7662 7662 462 White 5
3 AM Fri 56 56 NW 7 7217 7217 17 White 3
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 7 6768 7200 0 White 1
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 3 6768 7200 0 White 1
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 6543 7200 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 3 7439 7439 239 White 4
8 AM Fri 61 62 N 3 8546 8546 1346 White 9
9 AM Fri 65 68 N 3 9860 9860 2660 White 15
10 AM Fri 68 72 N 3 10771 10771 3571 White 19
11 AM Fri 71 77 W 8 11842 11842 4642 White 24
12 Noon Fri 74 81 W 8 12692 12692 5492 White 28
1 PM Fri 76 84 W 8 13324 13324 6124 White 31
2 PM Fri 77 85 W 8 13533 13533 6333 White 32
3 PM Fri 78 85 W 8 13533 13533 6333 White 32
4 PM Fri 78 83 W 8 13114 13114 5914 White 30
5 PM Fri 76 79 W 13 12269 12269 5069 White 26
6 PM Fri 75 76 W 13 11630 11630 4430 White 23
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 13 10988 10988 3788 White 20
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 13 10338 10338 3138 White 17
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 13 9643 9643 2443 White 14
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 13 8985 8947 1747 White 11
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 9 8327 8327 1127 White 8
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 9 7884 7884 684 White 6
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 9 7439 7439 239 White 4
2 AM Sat 56 56 N 9 7217 7217 17 White 3
3 AM Sat 54 54 N 9 6768 7200 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 9 5798 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 5798 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 5 6993 7200 0 White 2
8 AM Sat 60 61 NE 5 8327 8327 1127 White 8
9 AM Sat 65 68 NE 5 9860 9860 2660 White 15
10 AM Sat 69 74 NE 5 11202 11202 4002 White 21
11 AM Sat 72 78 E 6 12057 12057 4857 White 25
12 Noon Sat 75 83 E 6 13114 13114 5914 White 30
1 PM Sat 77 85 E 6 13533 13533 6333 White 32
2 PM Sat 79 87 E 6 13950 13950 6750 White 34
3 PM Sat 80 87 E 6 13950 13950 6750 White 34
4 PM Sat 80 85 E 6 13533 13533 6333 White 32
5 PM Sat 78 81 N 7 12692 12692 5492 White 28
6 PM Sat 77 78 N 7 12057 12057 4857 White 25
7 PM Sat 75 75 N 7 11416 11416 4216 White 22
8 PM Sat 73 73 N 7 10988 10988 3788 White 20
9 PM Sat 69 69 N 7 10089 10089 2889 White 16
10 PM Sat 66 66 N 7 9424 9424 2224 White 13
11 PM Sat 64 64 NE 8 8985 8947 1747 White 11
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NE 8 8546 8546 1346 White 9
1 AM Sun 60 60 NE 8 8106 8106 906 White 7
2 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 7884 7884 684 White 6
3 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 7439 7439 239 White 4
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 8 6993 7200 0 White 2
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 6993 7200 0 White 2
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 6768 7200 0 White 1
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 7662 7662 462 White 5
8 AM Sun 64 65 NE 5 9205 9128 1928 White 12
9 AM Sun 69 72 NE 5 10771 10771 3571 White 19
10 AM Sun 72 77 NE 5 11842 11842 4642 White 24
11 AM Sun 76 82 SE 2 12903 12903 5703 White 29
12 Noon Sun 79 86 SE 2 13742 13742 6542 White 33
1 PM Sun 81 89 SE 2 14365 14365 7165 White 36
2 PM Sun 83 91 SE 2 14771 14771 7571 White 38
3 PM Sun 84 90 SE 2 14568 14568 7368 White 37
4 PM Sun 84 89 SE 2 14365 14365 7165 White 36
5 PM Sun 82 84 S 5 13324 13324 6124 White 31
6 PM Sun 81 82 S 5 12903 12903 5703 White 29
7 PM Sun 79 79 S 5 12269 12269 5069 White 26
8 PM Sun 76 76 S 5 11630 11630 4430 White 23
9 PM Sun 72 72 S 5 10771 10771 3571 White 19
10 PM Sun 69 69 S 5 10089 10089 2889 White 16
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 9424 9424 2224 White 13
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 6 8985 8947 1747 White 11
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 8546 8546 1346 White 9
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 8106 8106 906 White 7
3 AM Mon 58 58 SW 6 7662 7662 462 White 5
4 AM Mon 56 56 SW 6 7217 7217 17 White 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com