Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 34 34 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 34 34 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 36 36 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 33 33 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 33 33 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 33 33 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 35 35 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 35 35 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 35 35 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 35 35 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 35 35 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 33 33 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 33 33 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 31 31 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 31 31 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 31 31 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 29 29 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 29 29 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 29 29 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 27 27 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 29 29 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 29 29 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 27 27 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 28 28 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 28 28 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 28 28 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 30 30 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 31 31 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 33 33 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 34 34 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 34 34 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 34 34 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 34 34 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 34 34 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 35 35 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 36 36 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 37 37 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 35 35 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 36 36 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 36 36 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 36 36 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 36 36 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 40 40 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 41 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 42 42 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 43 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 43 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 42 42 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 41 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 37 37 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 39 39 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 36 36 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 32 32 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 31 31 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 30 30 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 29 29 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 26 26 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 26 26 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 26 26 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 28 28 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 30 30 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 31 31 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 32 32 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 33 33 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 34 34 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 34 34 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 33 33 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 31 31 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 29 29 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 27 27 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 26 26 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 26 26 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 26 26 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 25 25 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 24 24 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 24 24 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 24 24 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 24 24 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 24 24 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 23 23 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 22 22 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 22 22 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 23 23 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 25 25 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 28 28 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 29 30 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 31 32 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 32 33 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 33 33 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 33 33 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 32 32 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 31 31 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 28 28 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 26 26 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 25 25 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 25 25 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 25 25 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 24 24 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 24 24 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 24 24 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 24 24 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com