Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 6538 7200 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 6538 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 W 10 6316 7200 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 SW 7 6316 7200 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 SW 7 6538 7200 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 28 28 SW 7 6982 7200 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 31 32 SW 8 7864 7864 664 White 0
11 AM Fri 32 33 SW 8 8084 8084 884 White 0
12 Noon Fri 33 34 SW 8 8303 8303 1103 White 0
1 PM Fri 32 33 SW 7 8084 8084 884 White 0
2 PM Fri 32 33 SW 7 8084 8084 884 White 0
3 PM Fri 32 32 SW 7 7864 7864 664 White 0
4 PM Fri 30 30 SW 3 7423 7423 223 White 0
5 PM Fri 24 24 SW 3 5775 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 20 20 SW 3 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 19 19 S 5 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 18 18 S 5 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 17 17 S 5 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 16 16 E 8 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 17 17 E 8 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 16 16 E 8 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 17 17 E 12 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 16 16 E 12 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 17 17 E 12 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 16 16 E 12 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 16 16 E 12 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 15 15 E 12 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 15 15 E 10 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 19 19 E 10 4800 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 E 10 6538 7200 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 34 35 SE 8 8522 8522 1322 White 0
11 AM Sat 38 39 SE 8 9400 9400 2200 White 10
12 Noon Sat 41 43 SE 8 10253 10253 3053 White 14
1 PM Sat 41 42 S 8 10044 10044 2844 White 13
2 PM Sat 40 41 S 8 9834 9834 2634 White 12
3 PM Sat 40 40 S 8 9619 9619 2419 White 11
4 PM Sat 38 38 S 7 9180 9180 1980 White 9
5 PM Sat 33 33 S 7 8084 8084 884 White 0
6 PM Sat 30 30 S 7 7423 7423 223 White 0
7 PM Sat 28 28 S 7 6982 7200 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 27 27 S 7 6760 7200 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 S 7 6760 7200 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 S 7 6538 7200 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 S 7 6538 7200 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 S 7 6538 7200 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 S 7 6760 7200 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 S 7 6538 7200 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 S 7 6760 7200 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 S 8 6538 7200 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 S 8 6538 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 S 8 6316 7200 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 S 8 6316 7200 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 S 8 6982 7200 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 S 8 8084 8084 884 White 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 SW 9 9400 9400 2200 White 10
11 AM Sun 42 43 SW 9 10253 10253 3053 White 14
12 Noon Sun 44 45 SW 9 10674 10674 3474 White 16
1 PM Sun 44 45 SW 9 10674 10674 3474 White 16
2 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 10253 10253 3053 White 14
3 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 10253 10253 3053 White 14
4 PM Sun 42 42 SW 13 10044 10044 2844 White 13
5 PM Sun 38 38 SW 13 9180 9180 1980 White 9
6 PM Sun 36 36 SW 13 8740 8740 1540 White 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 8303 8303 1103 White 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 8303 8303 1103 White 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 SW 13 8084 8084 884 White 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 SW 17 8084 8084 884 White 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 SW 17 8084 8084 884 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 SW 17 8084 8084 884 White 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 SW 17 8303 8303 1103 White 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 SW 17 8084 8084 884 White 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SW 17 8084 8084 884 White 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 SW 18 8084 8084 884 White 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SW 18 8084 8084 884 White 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 SW 18 7864 7864 664 White 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SW 18 7864 7864 664 White 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 SW 18 8303 8303 1103 White 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 SW 18 8959 8959 1759 White 8
10 AM Mon 41 41 SW 16 9834 9834 2634 White 12
11 AM Mon 43 43 SW 16 10253 10253 3053 White 14
12 Noon Mon 44 44 SW 16 10463 10463 3263 White 15
1 PM Mon 44 44 SW 16 10463 10463 3263 White 15
2 PM Mon 43 43 SW 16 10253 10253 3053 White 14
3 PM Mon 43 43 SW 16 10253 10253 3053 White 14
4 PM Mon 42 42 S 9 10044 10044 2844 White 13
5 PM Mon 39 39 S 9 9400 9400 2200 White 10
6 PM Mon 38 38 S 9 9180 9180 1980 White 9
7 PM Mon 37 37 S 9 8959 8959 1759 White 8
8 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 8740 8740 1540 White 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 S 9 8740 8740 1540 White 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 SW 12 8740 8740 1540 White 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 SW 12 8740 8740 1540 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SW 12 8740 8740 1540 White 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 SW 12 8740 8740 1540 White 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 SW 12 8740 8740 1540 White 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SW 12 8740 8740 1540 White 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 S 10 8740 8740 1540 White 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 S 10 8740 8740 1540 White 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 S 10 8522 8522 1322 White 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 S 10 8522 8522 1322 White 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 S 10 8959 8959 1759 White 8
9 AM Tue 41 41 S 10 9834 9834 2634 White 12
10 AM Tue 45 45 S 13 10674 10674 3474 White 16
11 AM Tue 47 47 S 13 11091 11091 3891 White 18
12 Noon Tue 48 48 S 13 11298 11298 4098 White 19
1 PM Tue 48 48 S 13 11298 11298 4098 White 19
2 PM Tue 47 47 S 13 11091 11091 3891 White 18
3 PM Tue 47 47 S 13 11091 11091 3891 White 18
4 PM Tue 46 46 S 13 10882 10882 3682 White 17
5 PM Tue 42 42 S 13 10044 10044 2844 White 13
6 PM Tue 40 40 S 13 9619 9619 2419 White 11
7 PM Tue 38 38 S 13 9180 9180 1980 White 9
8 PM Tue 38 38 S 13 9180 9180 1980 White 9
9 PM Tue 37 37 S 13 8959 8959 1759 White 8
10 PM Tue 37 37 S 15 8959 8959 1759 White 8
11 PM Tue 37 37 S 15 8959 8959 1759 White 8
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 S 15 8959 8959 1759 White 8
1 AM Wed 38 38 S 15 9180 9180 1980 White 9
2 AM Wed 37 37 S 15 8959 8959 1759 White 8
3 AM Wed 37 37 S 15 8959 8959 1759 White 8
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 16 8959 8959 1759 White 8
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 16 8959 8959 1759 White 8
6 AM Wed 36 36 S 16 8740 8740 1540 White 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 S 16 8740 8740 1540 White 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 S 16 9180 9180 1980 White 9
9 AM Wed 42 42 S 16 10044 10044 2844 White 13
10 AM Wed 46 46 S 17 10882 10882 3682 White 17
11 AM Wed 48 48 S 17 11298 11298 4098 White 19
12 Noon Wed 49 49 S 17 11505 11505 4305 White 20
1 PM Wed 49 49 S 17 11505 11505 4305 White 20
2 PM Wed 48 48 S 17 11298 11298 4098 White 19
3 PM Wed 48 48 S 17 11298 11298 4098 White 19
4 PM Wed 47 47 S 18 11091 11091 3891 White 18
5 PM Wed 43 43 S 18 10253 10253 3053 White 14
6 PM Wed 41 41 S 18 9834 9834 2634 White 12
7 PM Wed 39 39 S 18 9400 9400 2200 White 10
8 PM Wed 39 39 S 18 9400 9400 2200 White 10
9 PM Wed 38 38 S 18 9180 9180 1980 White 9
10 PM Wed 38 38 S 14 9180 9180 1980 White 9
11 PM Wed 38 38 S 14 9180 9180 1980 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 S 14 9180 9180 1980 White 9
1 AM Thu 39 39 S 14 9400 9400 2200 White 10
2 AM Thu 38 38 S 14 9180 9180 1980 White 9
3 AM Thu 38 38 S 14 9180 9180 1980 White 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com