Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 E 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 57 E 7 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 62 E 7 10735 9323 2123 White 5
10 AM Tue 62 65 E 7 11385 11099 3899 White 8
11 AM Tue 64 67 E 5 11814 11719 4519 White 10
12 Noon Tue 66 70 E 5 12454 12005 4805 White 13
1 PM Tue 68 72 E 5 12878 12878 5678 White 15
2 PM Tue 70 74 NW 6 13300 13300 6100 White 17
3 PM Tue 71 74 NW 6 13300 13300 6100 White 17
4 PM Tue 71 73 NW 6 13089 13089 5889 White 16
5 PM Tue 70 71 NE 5 12666 12250 5050 White 14
6 PM Tue 68 68 NE 5 12029 11814 4614 White 11
7 PM Tue 65 65 NE 5 11385 11099 3899 White 8
8 PM Tue 61 61 E 5 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 57 57 E 5 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 E 5 5582 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 S 6 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 S 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 SW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 SW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 SW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SW 7 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 SW 7 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 SW 7 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 61 61 W 7 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 62 62 W 7 10735 9323 2123 White 5
1 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 11169 9973 2773 White 7
2 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 11385 11099 3899 White 8
3 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 11600 11487 4287 White 9
4 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 11600 11487 4287 White 9
5 PM Wed 65 65 SW 10 11385 11099 3899 White 8
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 10 11169 9973 2773 White 7
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 10 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 10 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 SW 10 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 10 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 SW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 S 1 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 S 1 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 S 1 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 55 S 1 5582 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 60 S 1 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 60 63 S 1 10953 9649 2449 White 6
11 AM Thu 61 64 S 6 11169 9973 2773 White 7
12 Noon Thu 63 67 S 6 11814 11719 4519 White 10
1 PM Thu 65 69 S 6 12242 11910 4710 White 12
2 PM Thu 67 70 S 6 12454 12005 4805 White 13
3 PM Thu 68 71 S 6 12666 12250 5050 White 14
4 PM Thu 68 70 S 6 12454 12005 4805 White 13
5 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 11814 11719 4519 White 10
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 7 11600 11487 4287 White 9
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 7 10953 9649 2449 White 6
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 9361 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 5582 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 7 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 NW 3 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NW 3 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NW 3 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 3 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 3 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 3 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NW 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NW 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 NW 5 5582 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 N 5 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 58 N 5 8154 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 58 60 N 5 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 59 61 N 5 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 59 60 N 5 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 59 60 N 5 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 9 8154 7200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 9 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 9 5582 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 9 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 9 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 9 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 W 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 W 5 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 W 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 W 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 W 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 W 6 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 56 NW 6 5872 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 59 NW 6 9361 7200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 57 60 NW 6 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 59 61 NW 6 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 59 61 NW 6 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 59 60 NW 6 9690 7200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 58 59 W 8 9361 7200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 6340 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 8 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 8 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 8 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NW 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 NW 7 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 56 NW 7 5872 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 59 NW 7 9361 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 58 62 NW 7 10735 9323 2123 White 5
1 PM Sun 60 64 NW 7 11169 9973 2773 White 7
2 PM Sun 62 66 NW 7 11600 11487 4287 White 9
3 PM Sun 63 66 NW 7 11600 11487 4287 White 9
4 PM Sun 63 65 NW 7 11385 11099 3899 White 8
5 PM Sun 62 63 N 10 10953 9649 2449 White 6
6 PM Sun 61 61 N 10 10017 8043 843 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 58 58 N 10 8154 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 10 5291 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 N 10 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 10 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 6 5203 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com