Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 30 30 W 3 6793 7200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 30 30 W 3 6793 7200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 31 31 W 3 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 31 31 N 2 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 34 34 N 2 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 34 34 N 2 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 9091 7577 377 White 9
12 Noon Tue 39 39 SE 5 9531 8253 1053 White 11
1 PM Tue 40 41 SE 5 9966 9857 2657 White 13
2 PM Tue 42 42 SW 13 10181 10181 2981 White 14
3 PM Tue 42 42 SW 13 10181 10181 2981 White 14
4 PM Tue 42 42 SW 13 10181 10181 2981 White 14
5 PM Tue 40 40 SW 12 9750 8748 1548 White 12
6 PM Tue 40 40 SW 12 9750 8748 1548 White 12
7 PM Tue 37 37 SW 12 9091 7577 377 White 9
8 PM Tue 36 36 S 8 8284 7395 195 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 34 34 S 8 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 34 34 S 8 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 S 8 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 33 33 S 8 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 34 34 S 15 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 34 34 S 15 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 38 38 S 15 9311 7887 687 White 10
11 AM Wed 40 40 S 18 9750 8748 1548 White 12
12 Noon Wed 40 40 S 18 9750 8748 1548 White 12
1 PM Wed 39 39 S 18 9531 8253 1053 White 11
2 PM Wed 40 40 SW 21 9750 8748 1548 White 12
3 PM Wed 40 40 SW 21 9750 8748 1548 White 12
4 PM Wed 41 41 SW 21 9966 9857 2657 White 13
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 16 9966 9857 2657 White 13
6 PM Wed 39 39 SW 16 9531 8253 1053 White 11
7 PM Wed 37 37 SW 16 9091 7577 377 White 9
8 PM Wed 35 35 SW 16 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 34 34 SW 16 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 34 34 SW 16 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 33 33 SW 10 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 SW 10 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 32 32 SW 10 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 32 32 SW 10 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 32 32 SW 10 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 32 32 SW 10 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 32 32 S 12 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 32 32 S 12 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 32 32 S 12 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 32 32 S 12 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 33 33 S 12 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 35 36 S 12 8284 7395 195 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 36 37 SW 13 9091 7577 377 White 9
12 Noon Thu 37 38 SW 13 9311 7887 687 White 10
1 PM Thu 38 38 SW 13 9311 7887 687 White 10
2 PM Thu 38 38 SW 13 9311 7887 687 White 10
3 PM Thu 38 38 SW 13 9311 7887 687 White 10
4 PM Thu 38 39 SW 13 9531 8253 1053 White 11
5 PM Thu 38 38 SW 12 9311 7887 687 White 10
6 PM Thu 37 37 SW 12 9091 7577 377 White 9
7 PM Thu 35 35 SW 12 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 33 33 SW 12 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 32 32 SW 12 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 31 31 SW 12 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 31 31 SW 7 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 SW 7 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 32 32 SW 7 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 32 32 SW 7 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 32 32 SW 7 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 32 32 SW 7 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 32 32 SW 6 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 33 33 SW 6 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 34 34 SW 6 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 35 36 W 3 8284 7395 195 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 36 37 W 3 9091 7577 377 White 9
1 PM Fri 38 39 W 3 9531 8253 1053 White 11
2 PM Fri 39 40 W 3 9750 8748 1548 White 12
3 PM Fri 40 41 W 3 9966 9857 2657 White 13
4 PM Fri 40 40 W 3 9750 8748 1548 White 12
5 PM Fri 39 39 NW 5 9531 8253 1053 White 11
6 PM Fri 38 38 NW 5 9311 7887 687 White 10
7 PM Fri 36 36 NW 5 8284 7395 195 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 35 35 NW 5 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 34 34 NW 5 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 34 34 NW 5 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 33 33 N 5 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 N 5 7405 7200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 32 32 N 5 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 32 32 N 5 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 31 31 N 5 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 31 31 N 5 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 31 31 NE 5 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 5 7017 7200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 5 7221 7200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 5 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 36 37 NE 5 9091 7577 377 White 9
10 AM Sat 38 40 NE 5 9750 8748 1548 White 12
11 AM Sat 40 43 E 6 10395 10395 3195 White 15
12 Noon Sat 42 46 E 6 11030 11030 3830 White 18
1 PM Sat 44 48 E 6 11451 11451 4251 White 20
2 PM Sat 45 49 E 6 11661 11661 4461 White 21
3 PM Sat 46 49 E 6 11661 11661 4461 White 21
4 PM Sat 46 48 E 6 11451 11451 4251 White 20
5 PM Sat 45 46 S 3 11030 11030 3830 White 18
6 PM Sat 43 43 S 3 10395 10395 3195 White 15
7 PM Sat 41 41 S 3 9966 9857 2657 White 13
8 PM Sat 39 39 S 3 9531 8253 1053 White 11
9 PM Sat 37 37 S 3 9091 7577 377 White 9
10 PM Sat 36 36 S 3 8284 7395 195 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 35 35 SE 3 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 SE 3 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 35 35 SE 3 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 35 35 SE 3 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 35 35 SE 3 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 34 34 SE 3 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 34 34 SE 5 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 34 34 SE 5 7588 7200 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 7914 7212 12 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 37 37 SE 5 9091 7577 377 White 9
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 5 9531 8253 1053 White 11
10 AM Sun 42 43 SE 5 10395 10395 3195 White 15
11 AM Sun 44 46 S 7 11030 11030 3830 White 18
12 Noon Sun 46 48 S 7 11451 11451 4251 White 20
1 PM Sun 48 50 S 7 11868 11868 4668 White 22
2 PM Sun 49 51 S 7 12073 12073 4873 White 23
3 PM Sun 49 51 S 7 12073 12073 4873 White 23
4 PM Sun 49 50 S 7 11868 11868 4668 White 22
5 PM Sun 48 48 SW 9 11451 11451 4251 White 20
6 PM Sun 46 46 SW 9 11030 11030 3830 White 18
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 10608 10608 3408 White 16
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 9 10181 10181 2981 White 14
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 9 9966 9857 2657 White 13
10 PM Sun 40 40 SW 9 9750 8748 1548 White 12
11 PM Sun 40 40 SW 7 9750 8748 1548 White 12
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 7 9750 8748 1548 White 12
1 AM Mon 39 39 SW 7 9531 8253 1053 White 11
2 AM Mon 39 39 SW 7 9531 8253 1053 White 11
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 7 9531 8253 1053 White 11
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 7 9311 7887 687 White 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com