Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 41 41 SW 1 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 1 5765 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 SW 1 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 W 1 5578 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 W 1 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 56 58 W 1 9717 8330 1130 White 9
11 AM Tue 59 62 W 5 10612 10116 2916 White 13
12 Noon Tue 62 66 W 5 11473 11028 3828 White 17
1 PM Tue 65 70 W 5 12329 12329 5129 White 21
2 PM Tue 67 71 W 5 12542 12542 5342 White 22
3 PM Tue 68 71 W 5 12542 12542 5342 White 22
4 PM Tue 68 70 W 5 12329 12329 5129 White 21
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 6 12116 12116 4916 White 20
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 6 11688 11418 4218 White 18
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 10827 10307 3107 White 14
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 5 9717 8330 1130 White 9
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 5 8961 7200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 5 7192 7200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 53 53 NW 3 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NW 3 6578 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 3 6295 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 1 5578 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NW 1 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NW 2 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NW 2 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 2 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NW 3 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 NW 3 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 54 56 NW 3 8961 7200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 58 61 NW 6 10395 9919 2719 White 12
12 Noon Wed 60 64 NW 6 11043 10507 3307 White 15
1 PM Wed 62 67 NW 6 11688 11418 4218 White 18
2 PM Wed 65 70 NW 6 12329 12329 5129 White 21
3 PM Wed 67 71 NW 6 12542 12542 5342 White 22
4 PM Wed 67 69 NW 6 12116 12116 4916 White 20
5 PM Wed 66 67 W 12 11688 11418 4218 White 18
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 10827 10307 3107 White 14
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 9941 8882 1682 White 10
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 12 8352 7200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 12 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 12 6436 7200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 3 6136 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 3 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 3 5578 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 3 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 3 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 NE 5 6295 7200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 54 56 NE 5 8961 7200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 59 63 S 1 10827 10307 3107 White 14
12 Noon Thu 63 68 S 1 11902 11802 4602 White 19
1 PM Thu 66 71 S 1 12542 12542 5342 White 22
2 PM Thu 68 73 S 1 12965 12965 5765 White 23
3 PM Thu 70 74 S 1 13176 13176 5976 White 24
4 PM Thu 71 73 S 1 12965 12965 5765 White 23
5 PM Thu 70 71 W 3 12542 12542 5342 White 22
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 3 11688 11418 4218 White 18
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 10827 10307 3107 White 14
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 3 9941 8882 1682 White 10
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 3 8352 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 3 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 1 6436 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 1 6136 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 1 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 1 5578 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 1 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 1 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 S 2 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 S 2 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 S 2 7192 7200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 58 60 S 2 10178 9620 2420 White 11
11 AM Fri 62 65 SW 8 11259 10707 3507 White 16
12 Noon Fri 66 70 SW 8 12329 12329 5129 White 21
1 PM Fri 69 74 SW 8 13176 13176 5976 White 24
2 PM Fri 71 75 SW 8 13384 13384 6184 White 25
3 PM Fri 72 75 SW 8 13384 13384 6184 White 25
4 PM Fri 72 74 SW 8 13176 13176 5976 White 24
5 PM Fri 70 71 W 15 12542 12542 5342 White 22
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 15 11473 11028 3828 White 17
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 15 10612 10116 2916 White 13
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 15 9717 8330 1130 White 9
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 15 8352 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 15 6578 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 6436 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 6 6136 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 6 5765 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 5578 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 SW 5 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 SW 5 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 56 58 SW 5 9717 8330 1130 White 9
11 AM Sat 60 63 SW 8 10827 10307 3107 White 14
12 Noon Sat 63 66 SW 8 11473 11028 3828 White 17
1 PM Sat 66 70 SW 8 12329 12329 5129 White 21
2 PM Sat 68 71 SW 8 12542 12542 5342 White 22
3 PM Sat 69 72 SW 8 12753 12753 5553 White 22
4 PM Sat 70 72 SW 8 12753 12753 5553 White 22
5 PM Sat 69 70 SW 16 12329 12329 5129 White 21
6 PM Sat 65 65 SW 16 11259 10707 3507 White 16
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 16 10395 9919 2719 White 12
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 16 9498 7200 0 White 8
9 PM Sat 54 54 SW 16 7192 7200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 52 52 SW 16 6578 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 50 50 SW 5 6295 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SW 5 6136 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5765 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 5578 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 SW 5 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NW 6 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NW 6 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 NW 6 6832 7200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 56 59 SW 7 9941 8882 1682 White 10
12 Noon Sun 59 63 SW 7 10827 10307 3107 White 14
1 PM Sun 62 66 SW 7 11473 11028 3828 White 17
2 PM Sun 64 68 SW 7 11902 11802 4602 White 19
3 PM Sun 65 68 SW 7 11902 11802 4602 White 19
4 PM Sun 65 67 SW 7 11688 11418 4218 White 18
5 PM Sun 64 65 W 15 11259 10707 3507 White 16
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 15 10395 9919 2719 White 12
7 PM Sun 57 57 W 15 9498 7200 0 White 8
8 PM Sun 54 54 W 15 7192 7200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 15 6578 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 15 6295 7200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 6 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 6 5765 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 6 5392 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 5205 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 6 5036 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 6 5036 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com