Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 8105 7552 352 White 9
6 AM Sun 41 41 E 8 8546 8016 816 White 11
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 8105 7552 352 White 9
8 AM Sun 41 41 SE 9 8546 8016 816 White 11
9 AM Sun 42 42 SE 9 8765 8246 1046 White 12
10 AM Sun 43 43 SE 9 8985 8476 1276 White 13
11 AM Sun 45 45 E 5 9439 8933 1733 White 15
12 Noon Sun 47 47 E 5 9880 9634 2434 White 17
1 PM Sun 47 47 E 5 9880 9634 2434 White 17
2 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 10096 9952 2752 White 18
3 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 10096 9952 2752 White 18
4 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 10096 9952 2752 White 18
5 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 10096 9952 2752 White 18
6 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 10096 9952 2752 White 18
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 7 9880 9634 2434 White 17
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 8 9664 9209 2009 White 16
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 8 9439 8933 1733 White 15
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 9209 8705 1505 White 14
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 6 9209 8705 1505 White 14
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 6 9439 8933 1733 White 15
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 6 9209 8705 1505 White 14
2 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
6 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 7 9209 8705 1505 White 14
8 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 9439 8933 1733 White 15
9 AM Mon 47 47 NW 8 9880 9634 2434 White 17
10 AM Mon 48 48 NW 8 10096 9952 2752 White 18
11 AM Mon 49 50 NW 9 10527 10527 3327 White 20
12 Noon Mon 51 52 NW 9 10953 10953 3753 White 22
1 PM Mon 54 55 NW 9 11578 11578 4378 White 25
2 PM Mon 56 57 NW 10 11994 11994 4794 White 27
3 PM Mon 56 57 NW 10 11994 11994 4794 White 27
4 PM Mon 56 56 NW 10 11786 11786 4586 White 26
5 PM Mon 54 54 NW 12 11370 11370 4170 White 24
6 PM Mon 53 53 NW 12 11162 11162 3962 White 23
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 12 10741 10741 3541 White 21
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 12 10527 10527 3327 White 20
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 12 10096 9952 2752 White 18
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 12 9664 9209 2009 White 16
11 PM Mon 45 45 NW 8 9439 8933 1733 White 15
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NW 8 9209 8705 1505 White 14
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 9209 8705 1505 White 14
2 AM Tue 43 43 NW 8 8985 8476 1276 White 13
3 AM Tue 43 43 NW 8 8985 8476 1276 White 13
4 AM Tue 42 42 NW 8 8765 8246 1046 White 12
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 7 8765 8246 1046 White 12
6 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
7 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 9209 8705 1505 White 14
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 9439 8933 1733 White 15
9 AM Tue 47 48 NW 7 10096 9952 2752 White 18
10 AM Tue 49 50 NW 7 10527 10527 3327 White 20
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 8 11162 11162 3962 White 23
12 Noon Tue 53 56 N 8 11786 11786 4586 White 26
1 PM Tue 56 59 N 8 12408 12408 5208 White 29
2 PM Tue 58 61 N 8 12821 12821 5621 White 31
3 PM Tue 59 61 N 8 12821 12821 5621 White 31
4 PM Tue 59 61 N 8 12821 12821 5621 White 31
5 PM Tue 59 60 NW 9 12615 12615 5415 White 30
6 PM Tue 58 58 NW 9 12202 12202 5002 White 28
7 PM Tue 56 56 NW 9 11786 11786 4586 White 26
8 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 11370 11370 4170 White 24
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 9 10953 10953 3753 White 22
10 PM Tue 49 49 NW 9 10312 10267 3067 White 19
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 5 10096 9952 2752 White 18
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 5 9880 9634 2434 White 17
1 AM Wed 46 46 NW 5 9664 9209 2009 White 16
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 9439 8933 1733 White 15
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 9209 8705 1505 White 14
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 5 8985 8476 1276 White 13
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 8985 8476 1276 White 13
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 7 9209 8705 1505 White 14
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 9664 9209 2009 White 16
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 10312 10267 3067 White 19
9 AM Wed 52 53 N 7 11162 11162 3962 White 23
10 AM Wed 55 57 N 7 11994 11994 4794 White 27
11 AM Wed 57 59 N 5 12408 12408 5208 White 29
12 Noon Wed 59 62 N 5 13027 13027 5827 White 32
1 PM Wed 61 64 N 5 13438 13438 6238 White 34
2 PM Wed 62 65 N 5 13643 13643 6443 White 35
3 PM Wed 62 64 N 5 13438 13438 6238 White 34
4 PM Wed 62 63 N 5 13233 13233 6033 White 33
5 PM Wed 62 63 NW 5 13233 13233 6033 White 33
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 5 12615 12615 5415 White 30
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 12202 12202 5002 White 28
8 PM Wed 55 55 NW 5 11578 11578 4378 White 25
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 11162 11162 3962 White 23
10 PM Wed 50 50 NW 5 10527 10527 3327 White 20
11 PM Wed 48 48 NW 2 10096 9952 2752 White 18
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NW 2 9880 9634 2434 White 17
1 AM Thu 45 45 NW 2 9439 8933 1733 White 15
2 AM Thu 44 44 NW 2 9209 8705 1505 White 14
3 AM Thu 44 44 NW 2 9209 8705 1505 White 14
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 2 8985 8476 1276 White 13
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 3 8985 8476 1276 White 13
6 AM Thu 45 45 NW 3 9439 8933 1733 White 15
7 AM Thu 47 47 NW 3 9880 9634 2434 White 17
8 AM Thu 50 50 NW 3 10527 10527 3327 White 20
9 AM Thu 53 54 NW 3 11370 11370 4170 White 24
10 AM Thu 55 57 NW 3 11994 11994 4794 White 27
11 AM Thu 58 60 W 1 12615 12615 5415 White 30
12 Noon Thu 61 63 W 1 13233 13233 6033 White 33
1 PM Thu 63 65 W 1 13643 13643 6443 White 35
2 PM Thu 65 67 W 1 14053 14053 6853 White 37
3 PM Thu 65 67 W 1 14053 14053 6853 White 37
4 PM Thu 65 66 W 1 13848 13848 6648 White 36
5 PM Thu 64 65 NW 6 13643 13643 6443 White 35
6 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 13027 13027 5827 White 32
7 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 12615 12615 5415 White 30
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 6 12202 12202 5002 White 28
9 PM Thu 55 55 NW 6 11578 11578 4378 White 25
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 6 11162 11162 3962 White 23
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 2 10741 10741 3541 White 21
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 2 10527 10527 3327 White 20
1 AM Fri 48 48 NW 2 10096 9952 2752 White 18
2 AM Fri 47 47 NW 2 9880 9634 2434 White 17
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 2 9664 9209 2009 White 16
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 2 9439 8933 1733 White 15
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 3 9439 8933 1733 White 15
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 3 9664 9209 2009 White 16
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 10096 9952 2752 White 18
8 AM Fri 51 52 N 3 10953 10953 3753 White 22
9 AM Fri 54 56 N 3 11786 11786 4586 White 26
10 AM Fri 56 59 N 3 12408 12408 5208 White 29
11 AM Fri 59 62 NW 1 13027 13027 5827 White 32
12 Noon Fri 61 65 NW 1 13643 13643 6443 White 35
1 PM Fri 64 68 NW 1 14256 14256 7056 White 38
2 PM Fri 66 70 NW 1 14663 14663 7463 White 40
3 PM Fri 67 70 NW 1 14663 14663 7463 White 40
4 PM Fri 67 69 NW 1 14459 14459 7259 White 39
5 PM Fri 67 68 NW 7 14256 14256 7056 White 38
6 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 13643 13643 6443 White 35
7 PM Fri 63 63 NW 7 13233 13233 6033 White 33
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 7 12615 12615 5415 White 30
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 7 11994 11994 4794 White 27
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 11370 11370 4170 White 24
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 3 10953 10953 3753 White 22
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 3 10527 10527 3327 White 20
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 10096 9952 2752 White 18
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 3 9880 9634 2434 White 17
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 3 9439 8933 1733 White 15
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 3 9209 8705 1505 White 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com