Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SE 8 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 SE 8 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 ENE 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 ENE 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 SSE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 SSE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SSE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 SE 6 10 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 SE 6 10 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 61 SE 6 10 5040 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 65 NW 3 6 8294 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 65 69 NW 3 6 9890 8658 1458 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 67 71 NW 3 6 10702 9816 2616 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 69 73 WNW 6 10 11444 9945 2745 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 70 73 WNW 6 10 11444 9945 2745 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 70 72 WNW 6 10 11075 9881 2681 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 71 71 NNW 3 6 10702 9816 2616 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 69 69 NNW 3 6 9890 8658 1458 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 65 65 NNW 3 6 8294 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 62 62 SE 4 8 5513 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 SE 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SE 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 SE 8 12 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 64 SE 8 12 7220 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 68 ESE 8 12 9825 8256 1056 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 68 72 ESE 8 12 11075 9881 2681 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 70 74 ESE 8 12 11808 10638 3438 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 72 76 WNW 2 5 12520 11373 4173 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 73 76 WNW 2 5 12520 11373 4173 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 73 75 WNW 2 5 12167 11008 3808 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 72 72 NW 4 8 11075 9881 2681 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 69 69 NW 4 8 9890 8658 1458 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 65 65 NW 4 8 8294 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 62 62 NE 2 5 5513 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NE 2 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NE 2 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 E 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 E 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 E 4 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 E 3 6 7220 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 70 SSE 4 8 9954 9676 2476 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 69 73 SSE 4 8 11444 9945 2745 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 71 75 SSE 4 8 12167 11008 3808 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 73 77 SSW 3 6 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 74 77 SSW 3 6 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 75 77 SSW 3 6 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 75 75 NW 3 6 12167 11008 3808 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 72 72 NW 3 6 11075 9881 2681 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 69 69 NW 3 6 9890 8658 1458 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 3 6 8294 7200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 63 63 NW 3 6 5977 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NW 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 E 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 E 3 6 7220 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 70 S 4 8 9954 9676 2476 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 70 74 S 4 8 11808 10638 3438 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 73 77 S 4 8 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 74 78 S 4 8 12992 12089 4889 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 76 79 S 4 8 13226 12441 5241 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 76 78 S 4 8 12992 12089 4889 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 76 76 WNW 5 9 12520 11373 4173 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 5 9 11444 9945 2745 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 5 9 9954 9676 2476 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 5 9 8811 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 5 9 5977 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 WNW 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 E 5 9 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 NE 3 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 NE 3 6 5977 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 70 SE 4 8 9954 9676 2476 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 71 74 SE 4 8 11808 10638 3438 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 73 77 SE 4 8 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 75 78 SSW 4 8 12992 12089 4889 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 76 78 SSW 4 8 12992 12089 4889 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 76 77 SSW 4 8 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 75 75 W 4 8 12167 11008 3808 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 4 8 11075 9881 2681 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 4 8 9825 8256 1056 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 4 10 7220 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 4 10 5513 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 WNW 4 10 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 ESE 5 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 ESE 5 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 ESE 5 8 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 E 5 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 5 6 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 E 3 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 E 3 5 4921 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 63 E 3 5 5977 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 69 ESE 4 8 9890 8658 1458 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 69 72 ESE 4 8 11075 9881 2681 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 72 76 ESE 4 8 12520 11373 4173 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 74 77 ESE 4 13 12757 11733 4533 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 75 78 ESE 4 13 12992 12089 4889 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 75 76 ESE 4 13 12520 11373 4173 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 74 74 W 5 14 11808 10638 3438 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 14 10702 9816 2616 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 5 14 9825 8256 1056 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 4 10 7220 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 WNW 4 10 5513 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 4 10 4921 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com