Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 44 44 SW 12 6827 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 12 6827 7200 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 SW 12 6378 7200 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 6602 7200 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SW 10 6827 7200 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 44 44 SW 10 6827 7200 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 44 44 SW 16 6827 7200 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 46 47 SW 16 7498 7386 186 White 3
1 PM Wed 47 48 SW 16 7719 7719 519 White 4
2 PM Wed 47 48 W 14 7719 7719 519 White 4
3 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 7719 7719 519 White 4
4 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 7719 7719 519 White 4
5 PM Wed 46 46 W 12 7275 7200 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 12 7275 7200 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 W 12 6827 7200 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 W 7 6378 7200 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 W 7 6378 7200 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 7 6153 7200 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 8 6153 7200 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 8 6378 7200 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 W 8 6153 7200 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 W 7 6153 7200 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 7 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 W 7 6153 7200 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NW 6 6153 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NW 6 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 7 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 N 7 6378 7200 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 N 7 6602 7200 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 N 9 7051 7200 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 46 47 N 9 7498 7386 186 White 3
1 PM Thu 48 50 N 9 8160 8160 960 White 6
2 PM Thu 50 51 N 9 8381 8381 1181 White 7
3 PM Thu 52 53 N 9 8818 8818 1618 White 9
4 PM Thu 53 54 N 9 9036 9036 1836 White 10
5 PM Thu 53 54 N 8 9036 9036 1836 White 10
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 8 8381 8381 1181 White 7
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 8 7719 7719 519 White 4
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 8 7275 7200 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 8 7051 7200 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 N 8 6827 7200 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 5 6827 7200 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 5 6378 7200 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 6153 7200 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 N 5 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 5 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 N 3 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 5492 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 3 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 N 3 6378 7200 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 N 3 7051 7200 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 47 50 NW 3 8160 8160 960 White 6
12 Noon Fri 50 54 NW 3 9036 9036 1836 White 10
1 PM Fri 53 57 NW 3 9685 9685 2485 White 13
2 PM Fri 55 59 NW 3 10138 10138 2938 White 15
3 PM Fri 57 60 NW 3 10352 10352 3152 White 16
4 PM Fri 58 60 NW 3 10352 10352 3152 White 16
5 PM Fri 58 59 N 5 10138 10138 2938 White 15
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 5 9470 9470 2270 White 12
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 9036 9036 1836 White 10
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 8600 8600 1400 White 8
9 PM Fri 50 50 N 5 8160 8160 960 White 6
10 PM Fri 49 49 N 5 7940 7940 740 White 5
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 7719 7719 519 White 4
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NE 3 7498 7386 186 White 3
1 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 7498 7386 186 White 3
2 AM Sat 46 46 NE 3 7275 7200 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 6827 7200 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 6602 7200 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 3 6378 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 3 6378 7200 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 6602 7200 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 7051 7200 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 NE 3 7940 7940 740 White 5
10 AM Sat 52 54 NE 3 9036 9036 1836 White 10
11 AM Sat 55 58 S 2 9924 9924 2724 White 14
12 Noon Sat 57 61 S 2 10565 10565 3365 White 17
1 PM Sat 60 65 S 2 11408 11408 4208 White 21
2 PM Sat 61 65 S 2 11408 11408 4208 White 21
3 PM Sat 64 67 S 2 11828 11828 4628 White 23
4 PM Sat 65 67 S 2 11828 11828 4628 White 23
5 PM Sat 65 66 NW 2 11618 11618 4418 White 22
6 PM Sat 62 62 NW 2 10776 10776 3576 White 18
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 2 9924 9924 2724 White 14
8 PM Sat 54 54 NW 2 9036 9036 1836 White 10
9 PM Sat 51 51 NW 2 8381 8381 1181 White 7
10 PM Sat 50 50 NW 2 8160 8160 960 White 6
11 PM Sat 50 50 W 2 8160 8160 960 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 W 2 7940 7940 740 White 5
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 2 7719 7719 519 White 4
2 AM Sun 47 47 W 2 7498 7386 186 White 3
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 7275 7200 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 W 2 7051 7200 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 7051 7200 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 7051 7200 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 7275 7200 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 SW 6 7719 7719 519 White 4
9 AM Sun 50 50 SW 6 8160 8160 960 White 6
10 AM Sun 52 53 SW 6 8818 8818 1618 White 9
11 AM Sun 55 56 SW 8 9470 9470 2270 White 12
12 Noon Sun 57 58 SW 8 9924 9924 2724 White 14
1 PM Sun 59 60 SW 8 10352 10352 3152 White 16
2 PM Sun 61 62 SW 8 10776 10776 3576 White 18
3 PM Sun 61 62 SW 8 10776 10776 3576 White 18
4 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 10352 10352 3152 White 16
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 12 10138 10138 2938 White 15
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 12 9685 9685 2485 White 13
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 9470 9470 2270 White 12
8 PM Sun 54 54 W 12 9036 9036 1836 White 10
9 PM Sun 53 53 W 12 8818 8818 1618 White 9
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 12 8600 8600 1400 White 8
11 PM Sun 51 51 N 7 8381 8381 1181 White 7
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 7 8160 8160 960 White 6
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 7940 7940 740 White 5
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 7940 7940 740 White 5
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 7719 7719 519 White 4
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 7719 7719 519 White 4
5 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 7719 7719 519 White 4
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 7719 7719 519 White 4
7 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 7498 7386 186 White 3
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 7719 7719 519 White 4
9 AM Mon 49 49 N 9 7940 7940 740 White 5
10 AM Mon 51 52 N 9 8600 8600 1400 White 8
11 AM Mon 53 55 N 10 9254 9254 2054 White 11
12 Noon Mon 56 59 N 10 10138 10138 2938 White 15
1 PM Mon 58 61 N 10 10565 10565 3365 White 17
2 PM Mon 60 63 N 10 10987 10987 3787 White 19
3 PM Mon 61 63 N 10 10987 10987 3787 White 19
4 PM Mon 62 63 N 10 10987 10987 3787 White 19
5 PM Mon 61 62 NE 12 10776 10776 3576 White 18
6 PM Mon 59 59 NE 12 10138 10138 2938 White 15
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 12 9470 9470 2270 White 12
8 PM Mon 53 53 NE 12 8818 8818 1618 White 9
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 12 8381 8381 1181 White 7
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 12 8160 8160 960 White 6
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 7 8160 8160 960 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 7 7940 7940 740 White 5
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 7940 7940 740 White 5
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 7719 7719 519 White 4
3 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 7719 7719 519 White 4
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 7719 7719 519 White 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com