Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 58 58 S 2 5646 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 S 2 5749 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 S 2 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 68 SW 5 6887 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 69 71 SW 5 8037 7200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 73 77 SW 5 10874 9047 1847 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 77 82 W 8 13481 11861 4661 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 80 86 W 8 17020 13835 6635 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 83 89 W 8 17648 16128 8928 White 25
2 PM Sat 86 92 W 9 18256 17909 10709 White 27
3 PM Sat 87 92 W 9 18256 17909 10709 White 27
4 PM Sat 87 91 W 9 18054 17573 10373 White 26
5 PM Sat 87 89 W 9 17648 16128 8928 White 25
6 PM Sat 86 87 W 9 17242 14298 7098 White 23
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 9 13960 12375 5175 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 9 12484 10784 3584 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 9 9111 8022 822 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 9 8037 7200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 67 67 SW 6 6775 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 SW 6 6687 7200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 64 64 SW 6 6145 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 5650 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 E 7 5650 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 5646 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 E 7 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 E 3 6775 7200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 70 72 E 3 8236 7481 281 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 73 76 E 3 10301 8427 1227 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 76 80 SW 6 12484 10784 3584 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 80 85 SW 6 15497 13361 6161 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 82 88 SW 6 17446 15097 7897 White 24
2 PM Sun 83 89 SW 7 17648 16128 8928 White 25
3 PM Sun 84 89 SW 7 17648 16128 8928 White 25
4 PM Sun 84 88 SW 7 17446 15097 7897 White 24
5 PM Sun 84 86 W 8 17020 13835 6635 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 83 84 W 8 14427 12874 5674 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 8 12989 11331 4131 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 11964 10220 3020 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 75 75 W 8 9717 8221 1021 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 8236 7481 281 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 7546 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 5 6775 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 5 6612 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 6046 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 5 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 W 5 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 W 1 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 1 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 W 1 6612 7200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 67 68 W 1 6887 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 71 73 W 1 8481 7823 623 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 75 79 W 1 11964 10220 3020 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 78 83 W 6 13960 12375 5175 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 81 87 W 6 17242 14298 7098 White 23
1 PM Mon 84 91 W 6 18054 17573 10373 White 26
2 PM Mon 85 92 W 6 18256 17909 10709 White 27
3 PM Mon 87 93 W 6 18463 18463 11263 White 28
4 PM Mon 87 91 W 6 18054 17573 10373 White 26
5 PM Mon 86 88 W 8 17446 15097 7897 White 24
6 PM Mon 85 86 W 8 17020 13835 6635 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 82 82 W 8 13481 11861 4661 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 80 80 W 8 12484 10784 3584 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 76 76 W 8 10301 8427 1227 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 8 8481 7823 623 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 7836 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 6 6887 7200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 6 6687 7200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 6 6145 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 W 6 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 W 6 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 NW 2 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NW 2 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 NW 2 6612 7200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 68 69 NW 2 7546 7200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 72 74 NW 2 9111 8022 822 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 76 80 NW 2 12484 10784 3584 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 79 84 SW 2 14427 12874 5674 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 82 88 SW 2 17446 15097 7897 White 24
1 PM Tue 84 91 SW 2 18054 17573 10373 White 26
2 PM Tue 86 92 SW 2 18256 17909 10709 White 27
3 PM Tue 87 92 SW 2 18256 17909 10709 White 27
4 PM Tue 87 91 SW 2 18054 17573 10373 White 26
5 PM Tue 87 89 W 9 17648 16128 8928 White 25
6 PM Tue 85 86 W 9 17020 13835 6635 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 9 13481 11861 4661 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 11964 10220 3020 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 10301 8427 1227 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 9 8481 7823 623 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 6 7836 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 6 6775 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 6 6612 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 5749 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NW 3 5749 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 NW 3 6145 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 NW 3 6887 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 70 72 NW 3 8236 7481 281 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 74 78 NW 3 11428 9644 2444 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 77 83 SW 3 13960 12375 5175 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 80 87 SW 3 17242 14298 7098 White 23
1 PM Wed 82 89 SW 3 17648 16128 8928 White 25
2 PM Wed 84 91 SW 3 18054 17573 10373 White 26
3 PM Wed 85 91 SW 3 18054 17573 10373 White 26
4 PM Wed 85 89 SW 3 17648 16128 8928 White 25
5 PM Wed 85 88 W 10 17446 15097 7897 White 24
6 PM Wed 84 85 W 10 15497 13361 6161 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 12989 11331 4131 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 11428 9644 2444 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 9717 8221 1021 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 10 8037 7200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 68 68 NW 6 6887 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 NW 6 6612 7200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 63 63 NW 6 6046 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 NW 6 5848 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 5650 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5646 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 5646 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 3 5650 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NW 3 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 NW 3 6775 7200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 70 72 NW 3 8236 7481 281 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 74 78 NW 3 11428 9644 2444 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 77 83 W 5 13960 12375 5175 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 80 87 W 5 17242 14298 7098 White 23
1 PM Thu 82 90 W 5 17851 17234 10034 White 26
2 PM Thu 84 91 W 5 18054 17573 10373 White 26
3 PM Thu 85 91 W 5 18054 17573 10373 White 26
4 PM Thu 85 90 W 5 17851 17234 10034 White 26
5 PM Thu 85 88 W 10 17446 15097 7897 White 24
6 PM Thu 84 85 W 10 15497 13361 6161 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 10 13481 11861 4661 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 10 11964 10220 3020 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 10 9717 8221 1021 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 7836 7200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 67 67 NW 7 6775 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NW 7 6145 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 7 5947 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NW 7 5749 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NW 7 5650 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 NW 7 5646 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com