Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 N 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 N 2 7720 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 57 59 NE 3 9069 8595 1395 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 60 62 NE 3 9707 9036 1836 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 63 65 NE 3 10941 9684 2484 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 63 65 NE 6 10941 9684 2484 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 64 66 NE 6 11083 9863 2663 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 64 65 NE 6 10941 9684 2484 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 64 64 N 8 10643 9505 2305 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 61 61 N 8 9527 8870 1670 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 56 56 N 8 8608 7683 483 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 52 52 N 7 7103 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 7 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 NW 3 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NW 3 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 3 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 N 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 N 5 7720 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 56 58 N 5 8884 8457 1257 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 60 63 NE 7 9887 9326 2126 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 63 67 NE 7 11277 10511 3311 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 66 70 NE 7 12927 11203 4003 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 66 70 NE 7 12927 11203 4003 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 67 70 NE 7 12927 11203 4003 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 67 69 NE 7 12136 11058 3858 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 67 68 NE 8 11665 10907 3707 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 63 63 NE 8 9887 9326 2126 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 58 58 NE 8 8884 8457 1257 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 54 54 NE 8 8314 7200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 51 51 NE 8 6655 7200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 8 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 6 8469 7200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 59 61 N 6 9527 8870 1670 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 64 67 E 8 11277 10511 3311 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 67 71 E 8 13663 11594 4394 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 71 75 E 8 15316 14334 7134 White 25
2 PM Wed 71 75 E 8 15316 14334 7134 White 25
3 PM Wed 72 75 E 8 15316 14334 7134 White 25
4 PM Wed 72 74 E 8 15109 13478 6278 White 24
5 PM Wed 71 72 E 9 14694 11966 4766 White 22
6 PM Wed 67 67 E 9 11277 10511 3311 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 9 9527 8870 1670 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 56 56 E 9 8608 7683 483 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 53 53 E 9 7720 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 51 51 E 9 6655 7200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 E 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 E 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 SE 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SE 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 SE 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 SE 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 SE 8 8746 8267 1067 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 61 63 SE 8 9887 9326 2126 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 66 69 SE 6 12136 11058 3858 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 70 74 SE 6 15109 13478 6278 White 24
1 PM Thu 74 78 SE 6 15932 15932 8732 White 28
2 PM Thu 74 78 SE 6 15932 15932 8732 White 28
3 PM Thu 74 77 SE 6 15728 15728 8528 White 27
4 PM Thu 75 77 SE 6 15728 15728 8528 White 27
5 PM Thu 74 75 S 2 15316 14334 7134 White 25
6 PM Thu 70 70 S 2 12927 11203 4003 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 63 63 S 2 9887 9326 2126 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 58 58 S 2 8884 8457 1257 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 55 55 S 2 8469 7200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 53 53 S 2 7720 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 52 52 SE 6 7103 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SE 6 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 SE 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 SE 6 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 S 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 S 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 S 2 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 S 2 8746 8267 1067 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 61 63 S 2 9887 9326 2126 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 66 69 S 3 12136 11058 3858 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 69 73 S 3 14901 12749 5549 White 23
1 PM Fri 73 77 S 3 15728 15728 8528 White 27
2 PM Fri 73 77 S 3 15728 15728 8528 White 27
3 PM Fri 74 77 S 3 15728 15728 8528 White 27
4 PM Fri 74 76 S 3 15523 15523 8323 White 26
5 PM Fri 73 74 W 7 15109 13478 6278 White 24
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 7 12136 11058 3858 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 9887 9326 2126 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 8884 8457 1257 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 7 8469 7200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 7 7720 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 52 52 SW 5 7103 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SW 5 6655 7200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 48 48 SW 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 SW 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 SW 5 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 W 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 W 2 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 W 2 8608 7683 483 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 61 62 W 2 9707 9036 1836 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 65 68 W 5 11665 10907 3707 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 68 72 W 5 14694 11966 4766 White 22
1 PM Sat 72 76 W 5 15523 15523 8323 White 26
2 PM Sat 72 76 W 5 15523 15523 8323 White 26
3 PM Sat 73 76 W 5 15523 15523 8323 White 26
4 PM Sat 73 75 W 5 15316 14334 7134 White 25
5 PM Sat 72 73 NW 10 14901 12749 5549 White 23
6 PM Sat 69 69 NW 10 12136 11058 3858 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 10 9707 9036 1836 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 58 58 NW 10 8884 8457 1257 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 55 55 NW 10 8469 7200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 54 54 NW 10 8314 7200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 8 7720 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 8 6655 7200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 6507 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 5007 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com