Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 31 31 E 13 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 E 13 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 E 13 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 E 17 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 E 17 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 E 17 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 SE 14 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 44 SE 14 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 47 SE 14 6086 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 47 48 SE 10 6214 7200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 47 47 SE 10 6086 7200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 47 47 SE 10 6086 7200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 42 42 SE 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 SE 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 SE 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 S 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 S 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 S 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 S 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 S 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 S 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 S 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 S 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 S 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 S 9 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 S 9 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 S 9 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 S 10 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 S 10 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 S 10 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 SW 14 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 SW 14 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 42 SW 14 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 41 W 20 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 39 39 W 20 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 39 39 W 20 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 37 37 NW 13 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 35 NW 13 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 33 33 NW 13 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 32 32 NW 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 NW 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 NW 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 29 29 NE 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 28 NE 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 NE 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 NE 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 NE 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 NE 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 NE 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 NE 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 NE 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 25 25 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 30 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 34 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 36 37 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 38 39 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 38 38 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 36 36 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 31 31 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 30 30 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 E 7 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 E 8 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 25 25 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 27 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 31 31 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 37 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 41 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 44 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 46 E 5 5957 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 45 46 E 5 5957 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 43 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 41 41 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 38 38 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 36 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 39 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 42 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 42 43 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 42 42 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 41 41 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 35 35 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 30 30 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 35 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 40 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 43 E 5 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 44 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 43 44 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 E 2 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 E 2 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 34 34 E 2 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 E 3 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 30 30 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 28 28 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 27 27 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 E 6 5325 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com