Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 43 43 NW 8 6569 6900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 45 45 NW 8 7364 6900 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 46 46 NW 8 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 8186 7350 450 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 50 51 W 6 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 51 53 W 6 8916 8394 1494 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 52 54 SW 6 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 54 56 SW 6 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 54 56 SW 6 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 55 57 SW 9 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 55 57 SW 9 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 55 56 SW 9 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 55 55 W 12 9275 8716 1816 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 9 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 56 56 SW 9 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 56 56 SW 9 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 55 55 SW 9 9275 8716 1816 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SW 9 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 9 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 51 51 W 7 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 49 49 W 7 8296 7557 657 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 7888 7143 243 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 6 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 45 45 W 6 7364 6900 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 45 45 W 6 7364 6900 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 7364 6900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 7364 6900 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 47 47 W 8 7888 7143 243 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 48 49 W 8 8296 7557 657 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 49 50 W 8 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 50 51 W 14 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 50 50 W 14 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 50 50 W 14 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 8296 7557 657 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 8296 7557 657 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 12 8186 7350 450 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 47 47 W 12 7888 7143 243 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 46 46 W 12 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 12 7364 6900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 44 44 NW 8 7156 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 NW 8 6569 6900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 6386 6900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 6386 6900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 6386 6900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 6386 6900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 7 6569 6900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 7 6569 6900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 7 7156 6900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 47 48 N 7 8186 7350 450 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 49 51 N 7 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 51 54 N 8 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 53 57 N 8 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 55 60 N 8 10235 9607 2707 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 56 61 N 8 10355 9785 2885 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 58 62 N 8 10550 10096 3196 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 59 62 N 8 10550 10096 3196 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 59 60 NW 6 10235 9607 2707 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 59 59 NW 6 10116 9430 2530 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 57 57 NW 6 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 54 54 NW 6 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 6 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 5 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 N 5 8186 7350 450 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 7888 7143 243 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 7572 6900 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 7888 7143 243 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 8186 7350 450 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 3 8296 7557 657 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 3 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 55 57 N 3 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 57 60 N 5 10235 9607 2707 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 59 63 N 5 11436 10216 3316 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 61 66 N 5 11962 11238 4338 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 62 67 N 5 12169 11575 4675 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 63 67 N 5 12169 11575 4675 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 64 67 N 5 12169 11575 4675 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 64 65 NW 6 11787 10454 3554 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 63 63 NW 6 11436 10216 3316 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 10550 10096 3196 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 6 10235 9607 2707 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 9812 9252 2352 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 5 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 53 53 N 5 8916 8394 1494 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 9275 8716 1816 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 57 58 N 5 9812 9252 2352 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 59 61 N 5 10355 9785 2885 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 61 65 N 5 11787 10454 3554 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 64 69 N 5 12779 11923 5023 White 28
1 PM Sat 66 71 N 5 13197 12331 5431 White 30
2 PM Sat 67 72 N 5 13406 13406 6506 White 31
3 PM Sat 68 72 N 5 13406 13406 6506 White 31
4 PM Sat 69 72 N 5 13406 13406 6506 White 31
5 PM Sat 69 70 W 7 12988 12121 5221 White 29
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 12381 11749 4849 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 7 11962 11238 4338 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 7 11436 10216 3316 Blue 22
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 7 10355 9785 2885 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 7 9812 9252 2352 Blue 17
11 PM Sat 56 56 NW 3 9454 8895 1995 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NW 3 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 53 53 NW 3 8916 8394 1494 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 52 52 NW 3 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 52 52 NW 3 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 52 52 NW 3 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 53 53 NW 5 8916 8394 1494 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 54 54 NW 5 9096 8537 1637 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 9275 8716 1816 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 57 57 NW 5 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 58 58 NW 5 9812 9252 2352 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 60 61 NW 5 10355 9785 2885 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 61 64 W 9 11612 10335 3435 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 63 66 W 9 11962 11238 4338 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 64 68 W 9 12381 11749 4849 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 65 69 W 9 12779 11923 5023 White 28
3 PM Sun 65 68 W 9 12381 11749 4849 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 65 67 W 9 12169 11575 4675 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 64 65 W 13 11787 10454 3554 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 63 63 W 13 11436 10216 3316 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 13 10550 10096 3196 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 13 10235 9607 2707 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 13 10116 9430 2530 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 13 9633 9073 2173 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 9 9275 8716 1816 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 9 8916 8394 1494 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 8737 8285 1385 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 9 8557 8175 1275 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 9 8406 7851 951 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 9 8406 7851 951 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com