Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 34 34 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 34 34 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 33 33 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 34 34 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 33 33 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 33 33 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 33 33 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 33 33 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 33 33 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 33 33 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 33 33 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 33 33 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 33 33 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 33 33 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 34 34 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 35 35 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 32 32 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 32 32 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 32 32 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 32 32 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 33 33 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 34 34 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 35 35 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 35 35 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 36 36 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 37 37 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 36 36 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 36 36 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 36 36 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 36 36 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 37 37 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 41 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 42 42 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 42 42 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 42 42 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 42 42 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 41 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 41 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 40 40 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 40 40 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 39 39 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 38 38 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 38 38 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 37 37 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 36 36 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 34 34 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 33 33 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 31 31 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 30 30 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 30 30 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 29 29 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 29 29 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 29 29 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 29 29 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 30 30 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 32 33 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 34 35 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 35 36 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 37 37 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 38 38 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 39 39 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 39 39 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 37 37 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 36 36 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 34 34 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 32 32 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 31 31 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 30 30 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 31 31 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 32 32 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 32 32 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 33 33 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 35 35 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 37 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 39 40 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 40 41 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 42 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 43 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com