Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 3 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 NE 3 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NE 3 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NE 2 5498 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 NE 2 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 54 NE 2 6512 6900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 55 58 NW 1 8545 6900 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 57 61 NW 1 9856 8458 1558 White 9
1 PM Tue 60 65 NW 1 10744 10200 3300 White 13
2 PM Tue 62 67 NW 3 11173 10597 3697 White 15
3 PM Tue 64 68 NW 3 11387 10806 3906 White 16
4 PM Tue 65 68 NW 3 11387 10806 3906 White 16
5 PM Tue 65 66 W 7 10959 10397 3497 White 14
6 PM Tue 64 64 W 7 10529 10010 3110 White 12
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 7 10093 9241 2341 White 10
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 7 9420 7001 101 White 7
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 7020 6900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 6231 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 5868 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 N 6 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 N 6 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 6 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 N 7 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 7 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 N 7 6231 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 N 7 7020 6900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 56 60 NW 6 9638 7361 461 White 8
12 Noon Wed 59 64 NW 6 10529 10010 3110 White 12
1 PM Wed 62 67 NW 6 11173 10597 3697 White 15
2 PM Wed 64 69 NW 7 11599 11197 4297 White 17
3 PM Wed 66 70 NW 7 11813 11581 4681 White 18
4 PM Wed 67 70 NW 7 11813 11581 4681 White 18
5 PM Wed 67 68 NW 7 11387 10806 3906 White 16
6 PM Wed 66 66 NW 7 10959 10397 3497 White 14
7 PM Wed 63 63 NW 7 10313 9821 2921 White 11
8 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 9856 8458 1558 White 9
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 7 7395 6900 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 54 54 NW 7 6512 6900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 51 51 NW 5 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NW 5 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NW 5 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 NW 5 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NW 5 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 NW 5 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 7 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 7 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 N 7 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 N 7 6512 6900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 56 58 N 7 8545 6900 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 59 63 NW 7 10313 9821 2921 White 11
12 Noon Thu 63 68 NW 7 11387 10806 3906 White 16
1 PM Thu 66 71 NW 7 12026 11960 5060 White 19
2 PM Thu 69 74 NW 7 12660 12660 5760 White 22
3 PM Thu 71 75 NW 7 12871 12871 5971 White 23
4 PM Thu 72 75 NW 7 12871 12871 5971 White 23
5 PM Thu 72 73 NW 7 12449 12449 5549 White 21
6 PM Thu 71 71 NW 7 12026 11960 5060 White 19
7 PM Thu 68 68 NW 7 11387 10806 3906 White 16
8 PM Thu 64 64 NW 7 10529 10010 3110 White 12
9 PM Thu 61 61 NW 7 9856 8458 1558 White 9
10 PM Thu 57 57 NW 7 7395 6900 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 54 54 NW 6 6512 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NW 6 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 5868 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 6 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 6 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 5868 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NW 6 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NW 6 6372 6900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 6661 6900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 57 57 NW 6 7395 6900 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 60 61 NW 6 9856 8458 1558 White 9
10 AM Fri 62 64 NW 6 10529 10010 3110 White 12
11 AM Fri 65 68 S 1 11387 10806 3906 White 16
12 Noon Fri 67 71 S 1 12026 11960 5060 White 19
1 PM Fri 68 72 S 1 12238 12238 5338 White 20
2 PM Fri 69 73 S 1 12449 12449 5549 White 21
3 PM Fri 70 73 S 1 12449 12449 5549 White 21
4 PM Fri 70 72 S 1 12238 12238 5338 White 20
5 PM Fri 69 70 W 8 11813 11581 4681 White 18
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 11173 10597 3697 White 15
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 10744 10200 3300 White 13
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 10093 9241 2341 White 10
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 9420 7001 101 White 7
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 7020 6900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 3 6512 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 3 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 3 5868 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NW 3 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 5498 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 5498 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 W 2 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 5868 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 W 2 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 W 2 6372 6900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 55 55 W 2 6661 6900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 57 58 W 2 8545 6900 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 60 63 W 3 10313 9821 2921 White 11
12 Noon Sat 61 64 W 3 10529 10010 3110 White 12
1 PM Sat 63 67 W 3 11173 10597 3697 White 15
2 PM Sat 64 68 W 3 11387 10806 3906 White 16
3 PM Sat 65 68 W 3 11387 10806 3906 White 16
4 PM Sat 65 67 W 3 11173 10597 3697 White 15
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 5 10744 10200 3300 White 13
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 10313 9821 2921 White 11
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 5 9856 8458 1558 White 9
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 5 9420 7001 101 White 7
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 5 7020 6900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 54 54 W 5 6512 6900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 51 51 NW 7 6053 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NW 7 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 NW 7 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NW 7 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NW 7 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NW 7 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NW 7 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 7 5127 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NW 7 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NW 7 5498 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 NW 7 5868 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 NW 7 6372 6900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 54 57 NW 5 7395 6900 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 56 60 NW 5 9638 7361 461 White 8
1 PM Sun 59 63 NW 5 10313 9821 2921 White 11
2 PM Sun 61 65 NW 5 10744 10200 3300 White 13
3 PM Sun 62 65 NW 5 10744 10200 3300 White 13
4 PM Sun 63 65 NW 5 10744 10200 3300 White 13
5 PM Sun 63 64 W 7 10529 10010 3110 White 12
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 7 10093 9241 2341 White 10
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 7 9638 7361 461 White 8
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 8545 6900 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 7 6661 6900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 7 6231 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NW 5 5683 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NW 5 5313 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 NW 5 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 5 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 NW 5 5036 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NW 5 5036 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com