Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 32 32 NW 9 7006 7006 106 White 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 NW 9 7006 7006 106 White 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 NW 9 7226 7226 326 White 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 N 8 7226 7226 326 White 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 N 8 7444 7444 544 White 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 N 8 7881 7881 981 White 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 N 1 8316 8316 1416 White 0
11 AM Fri 38 39 N 1 8533 8533 1633 White 0
12 Noon Fri 40 42 N 1 9185 9185 2285 White 11
1 PM Fri 41 42 S 2 9185 9185 2285 White 11
2 PM Fri 42 43 S 2 9403 9403 2503 White 12
3 PM Fri 43 43 S 2 9403 9403 2503 White 12
4 PM Fri 43 43 S 1 9403 9403 2503 White 12
5 PM Fri 42 42 S 1 9185 9185 2285 White 11
6 PM Fri 41 41 S 1 8967 8967 2067 White 10
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 3 8533 8533 1633 White 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 E 3 8099 8099 1199 White 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 E 3 7881 7881 981 White 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NE 8 7444 7444 544 White 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 NE 8 7226 7226 326 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 8 7226 7226 326 White 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 NE 7 7226 7226 326 White 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NE 7 7444 7444 544 White 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 7 7444 7444 544 White 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NE 2 7663 7663 763 White 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NE 2 7881 7881 981 White 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 NE 2 8099 8099 1199 White 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 E 2 8533 8533 1633 White 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 E 2 8750 8750 1850 White 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 E 2 8967 8967 2067 White 10
10 AM Sat 43 44 SE 2 9621 9621 2721 White 12
11 AM Sat 44 45 SE 2 9834 9834 2934 White 13
12 Noon Sat 46 47 SE 2 10249 10249 3349 White 15
1 PM Sat 47 48 SE 2 10458 10458 3558 White 16
2 PM Sat 48 49 SE 2 10666 10666 3766 White 17
3 PM Sat 48 48 SE 2 10458 10458 3558 White 16
4 PM Sat 48 48 SE 3 10458 10458 3558 White 16
5 PM Sat 47 47 SE 3 10249 10249 3349 White 15
6 PM Sat 46 46 SE 3 10042 10042 3142 White 14
7 PM Sat 44 44 SE 3 9621 9621 2721 White 12
8 PM Sat 42 42 SE 3 9185 9185 2285 White 11
9 PM Sat 40 40 SE 3 8750 8750 1850 White 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 S 6 8316 8316 1416 White 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 S 6 8099 8099 1199 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 S 6 7881 7881 981 White 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 S 6 7663 7663 763 White 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 S 6 7663 7663 763 White 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 S 6 7663 7663 763 White 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 S 6 7881 7881 981 White 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 6 8099 8099 1199 White 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 8316 8316 1416 White 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 S 6 8533 8533 1633 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 8967 8967 2067 White 10
9 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 9185 9185 2285 White 11
10 AM Sun 44 44 S 3 9621 9621 2721 White 12
11 AM Sun 45 46 S 3 10042 10042 3142 White 14
12 Noon Sun 46 47 S 3 10249 10249 3349 White 15
1 PM Sun 46 47 S 3 10249 10249 3349 White 15
2 PM Sun 47 47 S 3 10249 10249 3349 White 15
3 PM Sun 47 47 S 3 10249 10249 3349 White 15
4 PM Sun 47 47 S 6 10249 10249 3349 White 15
5 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 10042 10042 3142 White 14
6 PM Sun 45 45 S 6 9834 9834 2934 White 13
7 PM Sun 44 44 S 6 9621 9621 2721 White 12
8 PM Sun 43 43 S 6 9403 9403 2503 White 12
9 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 9185 9185 2285 White 11
10 PM Sun 42 42 S 7 9185 9185 2285 White 11
11 PM Sun 41 41 S 7 8967 8967 2067 White 10
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 7 8967 8967 2067 White 10
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 7 8967 8967 2067 White 10
2 AM Mon 41 41 S 7 8967 8967 2067 White 10
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 7 8967 8967 2067 White 10
4 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 8967 8967 2067 White 10
5 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 8967 8967 2067 White 10
6 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 8967 8967 2067 White 10
7 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 8967 8967 2067 White 10
8 AM Mon 42 42 S 9 9185 9185 2285 White 11
9 AM Mon 42 42 S 9 9185 9185 2285 White 11
10 AM Mon 43 43 S 6 9403 9403 2503 White 12
11 AM Mon 44 44 S 6 9621 9621 2721 White 12
12 Noon Mon 45 45 S 6 9834 9834 2934 White 13
1 PM Mon 46 46 S 6 10042 10042 3142 White 14
2 PM Mon 47 47 S 6 10249 10249 3349 White 15
3 PM Mon 48 48 S 6 10458 10458 3558 White 16
4 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 10666 10666 3766 White 17
5 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 10666 10666 3766 White 17
6 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 10666 10666 3766 White 17
7 PM Mon 48 48 S 6 10458 10458 3558 White 16
8 PM Mon 48 48 S 6 10458 10458 3558 White 16
9 PM Mon 47 47 S 6 10249 10249 3349 White 15
10 PM Mon 46 46 S 7 10042 10042 3142 White 14
11 PM Mon 46 46 S 7 10042 10042 3142 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 S 7 10042 10042 3142 White 14
1 AM Tue 46 46 S 7 10042 10042 3142 White 14
2 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 10249 10249 3349 White 15
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 10249 10249 3349 White 15
4 AM Tue 47 47 SE 7 10249 10249 3349 White 15
5 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 10458 10458 3558 White 16
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 10458 10458 3558 White 16
7 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 10458 10458 3558 White 16
8 AM Tue 49 49 SE 7 10666 10666 3766 White 17
9 AM Tue 49 49 SE 7 10666 10666 3766 White 17
10 AM Tue 50 50 SE 8 10873 10873 3973 White 18
11 AM Tue 51 51 SE 8 11080 11080 4180 White 19
12 Noon Tue 52 52 SE 8 11286 11286 4386 White 20
1 PM Tue 53 53 SE 8 11490 11490 4590 White 21
2 PM Tue 53 53 SE 8 11490 11490 4590 White 21
3 PM Tue 54 54 SE 8 11694 11694 4794 White 22
4 PM Tue 54 54 SE 8 11694 11694 4794 White 22
5 PM Tue 54 54 SE 8 11694 11694 4794 White 22
6 PM Tue 53 53 SE 8 11490 11490 4590 White 21
7 PM Tue 52 52 SE 8 11286 11286 4386 White 20
8 PM Tue 51 51 SE 8 11080 11080 4180 White 19
9 PM Tue 50 50 SE 8 10873 10873 3973 White 18
10 PM Tue 49 49 SE 8 10666 10666 3766 White 17
11 PM Tue 48 48 SE 8 10458 10458 3558 White 16
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SE 8 10458 10458 3558 White 16
1 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 10458 10458 3558 White 16
2 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 10458 10458 3558 White 16
3 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 10458 10458 3558 White 16
4 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 10666 10666 3766 White 17
5 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 10666 10666 3766 White 17
6 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 10666 10666 3766 White 17
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 10666 10666 3766 White 17
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 9 10666 10666 3766 White 17
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 10873 10873 3973 White 18
10 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 10873 10873 3973 White 18
11 AM Wed 51 51 S 9 11080 11080 4180 White 19
12 Noon Wed 51 51 S 9 11080 11080 4180 White 19
1 PM Wed 52 52 S 9 11286 11286 4386 White 20
2 PM Wed 52 52 S 9 11286 11286 4386 White 20
3 PM Wed 53 53 S 9 11490 11490 4590 White 21
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 11490 11490 4590 White 21
5 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 11490 11490 4590 White 21
6 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 11490 11490 4590 White 21
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 11286 11286 4386 White 20
8 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 11286 11286 4386 White 20
9 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 11080 11080 4180 White 19
10 PM Wed 50 50 S 7 10873 10873 3973 White 18
11 PM Wed 49 49 S 7 10666 10666 3766 White 17
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 S 7 10666 10666 3766 White 17
1 AM Thu 48 48 S 7 10458 10458 3558 White 16
2 AM Thu 47 47 S 7 10249 10249 3349 White 15
3 AM Thu 47 47 S 7 10249 10249 3349 White 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com