Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 31 31 SE 5 6423 6900 0 White 1
6 AM Tue 31 31 SE 5 6423 6900 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 6645 6900 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 33 33 E 6 6867 6900 0 White 3
9 AM Tue 34 34 E 6 7087 6900 0 White 4
10 AM Tue 35 35 E 6 7308 6900 0 White 5
11 AM Tue 36 36 SE 9 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 37 38 SE 9 7966 7305 405 White 8
1 PM Tue 38 39 SE 9 8185 7486 586 White 9
2 PM Tue 39 40 SE 9 8403 7701 801 White 10
3 PM Tue 40 41 SE 9 8621 8067 1167 White 11
4 PM Tue 40 40 SE 9 8403 7701 801 White 10
5 PM Tue 41 41 SE 9 8621 8067 1167 White 11
6 PM Tue 41 41 SE 9 8621 8067 1167 White 11
7 PM Tue 41 41 SE 9 8621 8067 1167 White 11
8 PM Tue 41 41 SE 9 8621 8067 1167 White 11
9 PM Tue 40 40 SE 9 8403 7701 801 White 10
10 PM Tue 39 39 SE 9 8185 7486 586 White 9
11 PM Tue 38 38 SE 10 7966 7305 405 White 8
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 SE 10 7966 7305 405 White 8
1 AM Wed 37 37 SE 10 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 36 36 SE 10 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 35 35 SE 10 7308 6900 0 White 5
4 AM Wed 34 34 SE 10 7087 6900 0 White 4
5 AM Wed 34 34 SE 10 7087 6900 0 White 4
6 AM Wed 34 34 SE 10 7087 6900 0 White 4
7 AM Wed 34 34 SE 10 7087 6900 0 White 4
8 AM Wed 35 35 S 13 7308 6900 0 White 5
9 AM Wed 35 35 S 13 7308 6900 0 White 5
10 AM Wed 36 36 S 13 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 37 37 S 15 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 37 37 S 15 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 38 38 S 15 7966 7305 405 White 8
2 PM Wed 38 38 S 14 7966 7305 405 White 8
3 PM Wed 39 39 S 14 8185 7486 586 White 9
4 PM Wed 39 39 S 14 8185 7486 586 White 9
5 PM Wed 39 39 S 12 8185 7486 586 White 9
6 PM Wed 39 39 S 12 8185 7486 586 White 9
7 PM Wed 38 38 S 12 7966 7305 405 White 8
8 PM Wed 38 38 S 12 7966 7305 405 White 8
9 PM Wed 37 37 S 12 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 37 37 S 12 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 36 36 S 9 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 S 9 7308 6900 0 White 5
1 AM Thu 35 35 S 9 7308 6900 0 White 5
2 AM Thu 34 34 S 9 7087 6900 0 White 4
3 AM Thu 33 33 S 9 6867 6900 0 White 3
4 AM Thu 33 33 S 9 6867 6900 0 White 3
5 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 6867 6900 0 White 3
6 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 6867 6900 0 White 3
7 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 6867 6900 0 White 3
8 AM Thu 34 34 S 8 7087 6900 0 White 4
9 AM Thu 34 34 S 8 7087 6900 0 White 4
10 AM Thu 35 35 S 8 7308 6900 0 White 5
11 AM Thu 36 36 S 12 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 36 36 S 12 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 36 36 S 12 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 37 37 S 12 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 37 37 S 12 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 37 37 S 12 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 37 37 SW 9 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 37 37 SW 9 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 36 36 SW 9 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 36 36 SW 9 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 35 35 SW 9 7308 6900 0 White 5
10 PM Thu 35 35 SW 9 7308 6900 0 White 5
11 PM Thu 34 34 W 7 7087 6900 0 White 4
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 W 7 6867 6900 0 White 3
1 AM Fri 32 32 W 7 6645 6900 0 White 2
2 AM Fri 32 32 W 7 6645 6900 0 White 2
3 AM Fri 31 31 W 7 6423 6900 0 White 1
4 AM Fri 31 31 W 7 6423 6900 0 White 1
5 AM Fri 31 31 NW 1 6423 6900 0 White 1
6 AM Fri 31 31 NW 1 6423 6900 0 White 1
7 AM Fri 32 32 NW 1 6645 6900 0 White 2
8 AM Fri 33 33 NW 1 6867 6900 0 White 3
9 AM Fri 34 34 NW 1 7087 6900 0 White 4
10 AM Fri 35 35 NW 1 7308 6900 0 White 5
11 AM Fri 37 39 SE 7 8185 7486 586 White 9
12 Noon Fri 38 40 SE 7 8403 7701 801 White 10
1 PM Fri 40 43 SE 7 9057 9057 2157 White 13
2 PM Fri 41 44 SE 7 9274 9274 2374 White 14
3 PM Fri 43 45 SE 7 9492 9492 2592 White 15
4 PM Fri 44 45 SE 7 9492 9492 2592 White 15
5 PM Fri 44 45 NW 2 9492 9492 2592 White 15
6 PM Fri 44 44 NW 2 9274 9274 2374 White 14
7 PM Fri 43 43 NW 2 9057 9057 2157 White 13
8 PM Fri 42 42 NW 2 8839 8428 1528 White 12
9 PM Fri 41 41 NW 2 8621 8067 1167 White 11
10 PM Fri 40 40 NW 2 8403 7701 801 White 10
11 PM Fri 38 38 N 2 7966 7305 405 White 8
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 N 2 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 36 36 N 2 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 35 35 N 2 7308 6900 0 White 5
3 AM Sat 34 34 N 2 7087 6900 0 White 4
4 AM Sat 34 34 N 2 7087 6900 0 White 4
5 AM Sat 34 34 N 7 7087 6900 0 White 4
6 AM Sat 34 34 N 7 7087 6900 0 White 4
7 AM Sat 35 35 N 7 7308 6900 0 White 5
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 7 7500 6901 1 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 37 37 N 7 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 39 40 N 7 8403 7701 801 White 10
11 AM Sat 40 42 E 8 8839 8428 1528 White 12
12 Noon Sat 42 45 E 8 9492 9492 2592 White 15
1 PM Sat 44 48 E 8 10135 10135 3235 White 18
2 PM Sat 45 48 E 8 10135 10135 3235 White 18
3 PM Sat 47 50 E 8 10559 10559 3659 White 20
4 PM Sat 48 50 E 8 10559 10559 3659 White 20
5 PM Sat 48 48 N 5 10135 10135 3235 White 18
6 PM Sat 48 48 N 5 10135 10135 3235 White 18
7 PM Sat 47 47 N 5 9923 9923 3023 White 17
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 5 9492 9492 2592 White 15
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 5 9274 9274 2374 White 14
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 8839 8428 1528 White 12
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 5 8621 8067 1167 White 11
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 5 8185 7486 586 White 9
1 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 7966 7305 405 White 8
2 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 7966 7305 405 White 8
3 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 6 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 6 7731 7122 222 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 6 7966 7305 405 White 8
8 AM Sun 39 39 E 6 8185 7486 586 White 9
9 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 8403 7701 801 White 10
10 AM Sun 41 42 E 6 8839 8428 1528 White 12
11 AM Sun 42 43 E 7 9057 9057 2157 White 13
12 Noon Sun 43 45 E 7 9492 9492 2592 White 15
1 PM Sun 44 46 E 7 9709 9709 2809 White 16
2 PM Sun 45 47 E 7 9923 9923 3023 White 17
3 PM Sun 46 47 E 7 9923 9923 3023 White 17
4 PM Sun 47 48 E 7 10135 10135 3235 White 18
5 PM Sun 47 47 S 5 9923 9923 3023 White 17
6 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 10135 10135 3235 White 18
7 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 10135 10135 3235 White 18
8 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 10135 10135 3235 White 18
9 PM Sun 48 48 S 5 10135 10135 3235 White 18
10 PM Sun 47 47 S 5 9923 9923 3023 White 17
11 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 9709 9709 2809 White 16
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 S 6 9492 9492 2592 White 15
1 AM Mon 44 44 S 6 9274 9274 2374 White 14
2 AM Mon 43 43 S 6 9057 9057 2157 White 13
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 6 8839 8428 1528 White 12
4 AM Mon 41 41 S 6 8621 8067 1167 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com