Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 5704 6900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 5704 6900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 5704 6900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 63 64 SE 3 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 64 66 SE 3 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 65 68 SE 3 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 67 72 SE 3 7734 6900 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 70 76 SE 3 8777 7917 1017 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 73 80 SE 3 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 76 82 S 5 12182 10461 3561 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 79 85 S 5 13669 12069 5169 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 81 85 S 5 13669 12069 5169 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 6 12691 11014 4114 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 80 81 W 6 11657 9896 2996 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 6 9390 8115 1215 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 5 8132 6938 38 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 5 6943 6900 0 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 5 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 65 65 NW 2 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NW 2 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 63 63 NW 2 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 63 63 NE 3 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 65 67 SE 5 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 65 68 SE 5 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 66 69 S 3 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 68 72 S 3 7734 6900 0 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 71 76 S 3 8777 7917 1017 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 74 79 SW 5 10554 8710 1810 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 76 80 SW 5 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 77 80 SW 5 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 78 80 W 5 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 77 78 W 5 9981 8312 1412 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 5 8330 7719 819 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 5 7734 6900 0 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 64 64 S 6 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 6 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 65 65 S 6 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 66 66 E 6 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 6 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 67 67 E 6 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 69 71 E 6 6943 6900 0 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 70 73 E 6 7933 6900 0 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 72 77 S 7 9390 8115 1215 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 74 80 S 7 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 76 83 S 7 12691 11014 4114 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 79 86 S 7 14140 12573 5673 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 81 87 S 7 14624 13063 6163 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 82 87 S 7 14624 13063 6163 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 82 85 SW 7 13669 12069 5169 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 81 82 SW 7 12182 10461 3561 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 79 79 SW 7 10554 8710 1810 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 7 8777 7917 1017 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 7 7933 6900 0 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 7 6831 6900 0 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 68 68 S 5 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 S 5 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 66 66 S 5 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 66 66 S 5 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 67 67 S 5 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 67 67 S 5 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 68 68 E 3 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 69 69 E 3 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 69 69 E 3 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 70 71 E 3 6943 6900 0 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 71 73 E 3 7933 6900 0 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 72 75 E 3 8330 7719 819 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 74 79 S 6 10554 8710 1810 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 76 82 S 6 12182 10461 3561 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 79 86 S 6 14140 12573 5673 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 81 88 S 6 15851 13541 6641 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 83 89 S 6 16414 14007 7107 White 28
4 PM Tue 84 89 S 6 16414 14007 7107 White 28
5 PM Tue 84 87 SW 7 14624 13063 6163 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 83 84 SW 7 13187 11550 4650 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 80 80 SW 7 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 77 77 SW 7 9390 8115 1215 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 74 74 SW 7 8132 6938 38 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 71 71 SW 7 6943 6900 0 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 68 68 SE 5 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SE 5 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 65 65 SE 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 66 66 SE 5 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 67 67 E 2 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 68 68 E 2 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 69 69 E 2 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 70 71 E 2 6943 6900 0 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 71 73 E 2 7933 6900 0 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 73 77 E 2 9390 8115 1215 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 75 80 S 6 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 77 83 S 6 12691 11014 4114 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 80 87 S 6 14624 13063 6163 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 82 89 S 6 16414 14007 7107 White 28
3 PM Wed 83 89 S 6 16414 14007 7107 White 28
4 PM Wed 84 88 S 6 15851 13541 6641 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 84 87 W 8 14624 13063 6163 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 82 83 W 8 12691 11014 4114 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 77 77 W 8 9390 8115 1215 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 8132 6938 38 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 6943 6900 0 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 6650 6900 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 5 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 6099 6900 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 71 73 N 2 7933 6900 0 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 72 75 N 2 8330 7719 819 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 75 80 NW 6 11115 9314 2414 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 77 84 NW 6 13187 11550 4650 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 79 86 NW 6 14140 12573 5673 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 81 88 NW 6 15851 13541 6641 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 82 88 NW 6 15851 13541 6641 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 83 88 NW 6 15851 13541 6641 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 83 86 W 9 14140 12573 5673 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 81 83 W 9 12691 11014 4114 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 9 10554 8710 1810 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 9 8777 7917 1017 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 9 7734 6900 0 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 6725 6900 0 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 67 67 NW 7 6313 6900 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NW 7 6000 6900 0 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 64 64 NW 7 5901 6900 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 63 63 NW 7 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 63 63 NW 7 5803 6900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 63 63 NW 7 5803 6900 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com