Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 58 E 3 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 E 3 7410 6900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 60 64 E 3 10159 8749 1849 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 61 64 SE 5 10159 8749 1849 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 63 66 SE 5 10762 9810 2910 White 7
1 PM Tue 65 69 SE 5 11406 11406 4506 White 10
2 PM Tue 67 70 S 3 11619 11619 4719 White 11
3 PM Tue 68 71 S 3 11832 11832 4932 White 12
4 PM Tue 69 71 S 3 11832 11832 4932 White 12
5 PM Tue 69 70 W 7 11619 11619 4719 White 11
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 11192 11192 4292 White 9
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 7 10762 9810 2910 White 7
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 3 10159 8749 1849 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 3 9532 6900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 7410 6900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 58 58 E 5 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 E 5 5456 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 5456 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 54 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 54 SE 8 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 56 SE 8 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 57 SE 8 5456 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 60 SE 9 7410 6900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 60 62 SE 9 9532 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 61 62 SE 9 9532 6900 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 62 62 SE 10 9532 6900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 62 62 SE 10 9532 6900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 60 60 SE 10 7410 6900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 58 58 SE 10 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SE 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 SE 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 54 E 10 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 57 SE 10 5456 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 58 SE 10 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 61 SE 10 8896 6900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 60 63 SE 10 9858 7300 400 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 61 64 SE 10 10159 8749 1849 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 62 64 SE 10 10159 8749 1849 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 62 63 E 8 9858 7300 400 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 61 61 E 8 8896 6900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 61 61 E 8 8896 6900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 59 59 E 8 6032 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 E 8 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 E 8 5456 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 E 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 E 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 E 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 50 SE 6 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 SE 6 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 52 SE 6 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 54 SE 6 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 54 SE 6 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 55 SE 6 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 S 2 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 S 2 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 S 2 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 S 2 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 S 2 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 S 2 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 E 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 E 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 E 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 E 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 NE 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 48 NE 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 51 W 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 54 W 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 56 W 3 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 58 W 3 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 59 W 3 6032 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 59 W 3 6032 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 58 NW 7 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 NW 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 NW 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 NW 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 NW 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NW 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 54 NW 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 58 NW 5 5745 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 61 NW 5 8896 6900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 58 64 NW 5 10159 8749 1849 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 60 65 NW 5 10546 9487 2587 White 6
3 PM Sun 62 66 NW 5 10762 9810 2910 White 7
4 PM Sun 63 66 NW 5 10762 9810 2910 White 7
5 PM Sun 63 65 W 7 10546 9487 2587 White 6
6 PM Sun 62 63 W 7 9858 7300 400 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 7 8896 6900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 7 6032 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 7 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 N 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 5203 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com