Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 S 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 S 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 SE 5 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 57 SE 5 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 58 SE 6 6362 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 57 SE 6 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 SE 6 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 SE 6 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 SE 6 5334 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 SE 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 SE 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 SE 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 54 SE 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 54 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 54 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 SE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 53 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 SE 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 SW 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 SW 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 W 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 NW 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 50 NW 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 51 NW 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 51 NW 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 52 NW 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 NW 8 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 N 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 N 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 57 N 3 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 58 N 3 6362 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 N 3 6362 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 N 3 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 N 1 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 1 5334 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 N 1 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 N 1 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 1 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 1 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 N 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 N 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 N 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 N 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 N 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 N 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 E 3 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 58 E 3 6362 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 59 E 3 6855 6900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 59 60 E 3 7245 6900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 60 61 E 3 7534 6900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 60 60 E 3 7245 6900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 60 60 SE 1 7245 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 59 59 SE 1 6855 6900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 58 58 SE 1 6362 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 SE 1 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 SE 1 5334 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 SE 1 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 S 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 S 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 S 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 S 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 2 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 SW 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 SW 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 SW 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 56 S 5 5334 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 57 S 5 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 57 S 5 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 57 S 5 5858 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 56 S 5 5334 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 S 5 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 54 S 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 S 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 S 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 S 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 S 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 S 6 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 SW 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SW 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 SW 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 SW 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 SW 7 5302 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com