Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 3 7640 7206 306 White 8
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 3 7640 7206 306 White 8
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 3 7640 7206 306 White 8
8 AM Sun 40 40 N 3 7640 7206 306 White 8
9 AM Sun 41 41 N 3 7860 7438 538 White 9
10 AM Sun 41 42 N 3 8079 7669 769 White 10
11 AM Sun 43 46 SE 3 8954 8585 1685 White 14
12 Noon Sun 46 50 SE 3 9842 9777 2877 White 18
1 PM Sun 48 52 SE 3 10271 10271 3371 White 20
2 PM Sun 49 51 SE 2 10056 10056 3156 White 19
3 PM Sun 51 52 SE 2 10271 10271 3371 White 20
4 PM Sun 51 52 SE 2 10271 10271 3371 White 20
5 PM Sun 51 51 SW 3 10056 10056 3156 White 19
6 PM Sun 51 51 SW 3 10056 10056 3156 White 19
7 PM Sun 51 51 SW 3 10056 10056 3156 White 19
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 9842 9777 2877 White 18
9 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 9842 9777 2877 White 18
10 PM Sun 49 49 W 5 9628 9408 2508 White 17
11 PM Sun 47 47 NW 2 9173 8812 1912 White 15
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NW 2 9173 8812 1912 White 15
1 AM Mon 47 47 NW 2 9173 8812 1912 White 15
2 AM Mon 46 46 NW 2 8954 8585 1685 White 14
3 AM Mon 45 45 NW 2 8735 8357 1457 White 13
4 AM Mon 45 45 NW 2 8735 8357 1457 White 13
5 AM Mon 44 44 NW 2 8517 8129 1229 White 12
6 AM Mon 45 45 NW 2 8735 8357 1457 White 13
7 AM Mon 46 46 NW 2 8954 8585 1685 White 14
8 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 9173 8812 1912 White 15
9 AM Mon 47 48 W 3 9402 9038 2138 White 16
10 AM Mon 48 50 W 3 9842 9777 2877 White 18
11 AM Mon 51 54 W 7 10697 10697 3797 White 22
12 Noon Mon 53 56 W 7 11116 11116 4216 White 24
1 PM Mon 55 58 W 7 11530 11530 4630 White 26
2 PM Mon 57 59 W 9 11736 11736 4836 White 27
3 PM Mon 57 58 W 9 11530 11530 4630 White 26
4 PM Mon 57 58 W 9 11530 11530 4630 White 26
5 PM Mon 57 58 W 9 11530 11530 4630 White 26
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 11116 11116 4216 White 24
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 10909 10909 4009 White 23
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 9 10697 10697 3797 White 22
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 10484 10484 3584 White 21
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 10271 10271 3371 White 20
11 PM Mon 51 51 NW 6 10056 10056 3156 White 19
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NW 6 9842 9777 2877 White 18
1 AM Tue 49 49 NW 6 9628 9408 2508 White 17
2 AM Tue 48 48 NW 6 9402 9038 2138 White 16
3 AM Tue 46 46 NW 6 8954 8585 1685 White 14
4 AM Tue 45 45 NW 6 8735 8357 1457 White 13
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 7 8517 8129 1229 White 12
6 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 8735 8357 1457 White 13
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 9173 8812 1912 White 15
8 AM Tue 49 50 N 7 9842 9777 2877 White 18
9 AM Tue 51 53 N 7 10484 10484 3584 White 21
10 AM Tue 53 57 N 7 11323 11323 4423 White 25
11 AM Tue 55 60 NW 8 11942 11942 5042 White 28
12 Noon Tue 58 64 NW 8 12764 12764 5864 White 32
1 PM Tue 60 66 NW 8 13172 13172 6272 White 34
2 PM Tue 62 67 NW 8 13376 13376 6476 White 35
3 PM Tue 64 68 NW 8 13580 13580 6680 White 36
4 PM Tue 64 67 NW 8 13376 13376 6476 White 35
5 PM Tue 63 65 NW 9 12968 12968 6068 White 33
6 PM Tue 62 63 NW 9 12559 12559 5659 White 31
7 PM Tue 61 61 NW 9 12148 12148 5248 White 29
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 11736 11736 4836 White 27
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 9 11323 11323 4423 White 25
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 9 10909 10909 4009 White 23
11 PM Tue 53 53 NW 7 10484 10484 3584 White 21
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NW 7 10271 10271 3371 White 20
1 AM Wed 51 51 NW 7 10056 10056 3156 White 19
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 7 9842 9777 2877 White 18
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 7 9628 9408 2508 White 17
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 7 9402 9038 2138 White 16
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 7 9402 9038 2138 White 16
6 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 9628 9408 2508 White 17
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 10056 10056 3156 White 19
8 AM Wed 53 54 N 7 10697 10697 3797 White 22
9 AM Wed 55 57 N 7 11323 11323 4423 White 25
10 AM Wed 58 61 N 7 12148 12148 5248 White 29
11 AM Wed 60 63 N 6 12559 12559 5659 White 31
12 Noon Wed 62 65 N 6 12968 12968 6068 White 33
1 PM Wed 64 68 N 6 13580 13580 6680 White 36
2 PM Wed 66 69 N 6 13783 13783 6883 White 37
3 PM Wed 66 69 N 6 13783 13783 6883 White 37
4 PM Wed 65 67 N 6 13376 13376 6476 White 35
5 PM Wed 65 66 W 7 13172 13172 6272 White 34
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 12764 12764 5864 White 32
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 12559 12559 5659 White 31
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 12354 12354 5454 White 30
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 11942 11942 5042 White 28
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 7 11530 11530 4630 White 26
11 PM Wed 56 56 NW 6 11116 11116 4216 White 24
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NW 6 10909 10909 4009 White 23
1 AM Thu 54 54 NW 6 10697 10697 3797 White 22
2 AM Thu 53 53 NW 6 10484 10484 3584 White 21
3 AM Thu 52 52 NW 6 10271 10271 3371 White 20
4 AM Thu 51 51 NW 6 10056 10056 3156 White 19
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 5 10056 10056 3156 White 19
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 5 10271 10271 3371 White 20
7 AM Thu 54 54 N 5 10697 10697 3797 White 22
8 AM Thu 56 57 N 5 11323 11323 4423 White 25
9 AM Thu 57 59 N 5 11736 11736 4836 White 27
10 AM Thu 59 62 N 5 12354 12354 5454 White 30
11 AM Thu 61 64 W 5 12764 12764 5864 White 32
12 Noon Thu 63 66 W 5 13172 13172 6272 White 34
1 PM Thu 65 69 W 5 13783 13783 6883 White 37
2 PM Thu 67 70 W 5 13987 13987 7087 White 38
3 PM Thu 68 71 W 5 14188 14188 7288 White 39
4 PM Thu 67 69 W 5 13783 13783 6883 White 37
5 PM Thu 67 69 W 7 13783 13783 6883 White 37
6 PM Thu 65 66 W 7 13172 13172 6272 White 34
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 7 12764 12764 5864 White 32
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 12148 12148 5248 White 29
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 11736 11736 4836 White 27
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 11323 11323 4423 White 25
11 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 10909 10909 4009 White 23
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NW 5 10697 10697 3797 White 22
1 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 10484 10484 3584 White 21
2 AM Fri 52 52 NW 5 10271 10271 3371 White 20
3 AM Fri 51 51 NW 5 10056 10056 3156 White 19
4 AM Fri 50 50 NW 5 9842 9777 2877 White 18
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 9842 9777 2877 White 18
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 5 10056 10056 3156 White 19
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 10484 10484 3584 White 21
8 AM Fri 55 56 N 5 11116 11116 4216 White 24
9 AM Fri 57 59 N 5 11736 11736 4836 White 27
10 AM Fri 58 62 N 5 12354 12354 5454 White 30
11 AM Fri 60 65 NW 6 12968 12968 6068 White 33
12 Noon Fri 62 67 NW 6 13376 13376 6476 White 35
1 PM Fri 65 71 NW 6 14188 14188 7288 White 39
2 PM Fri 68 74 NW 6 14795 14795 7895 White 42
3 PM Fri 69 74 NW 6 14795 14795 7895 White 42
4 PM Fri 68 71 NW 6 14188 14188 7288 White 39
5 PM Fri 68 70 W 8 13987 13987 7087 White 38
6 PM Fri 67 68 W 8 13580 13580 6680 White 36
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 13172 13172 6272 White 34
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 12764 12764 5864 White 32
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 12354 12354 5454 White 30
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 11736 11736 4836 White 27
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 6 11323 11323 4423 White 25
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 6 11116 11116 4216 White 24
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 10909 10909 4009 White 23
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 10909 10909 4009 White 23
3 AM Sat 53 53 N 6 10484 10484 3584 White 21
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 10271 10271 3371 White 20

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com