Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 E 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 E 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 SE 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 SE 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 54 SE 2 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 55 S 2 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 54 S 2 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 S 2 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 53 53 SE 1 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 SE 1 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 SE 1 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 E 1 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 E 1 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 E 1 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 NW 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 NW 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NW 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 NW 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NW 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 NW 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NW 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NW 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 N 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 N 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 NW 1 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 NW 1 6229 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 58 NW 1 6504 6900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 57 58 W 2 6504 6900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 57 58 W 2 6504 6900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 56 56 W 2 5920 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 N 2 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 N 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 N 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 N 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 N 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 N 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 N 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 N 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 N 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 NE 3 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 55 NE 3 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 58 NE 3 6504 6900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 57 58 NE 3 6504 6900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 57 58 NE 3 6504 6900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 57 57 NE 3 6229 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 NE 2 5920 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 NE 2 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 NE 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 NE 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 NE 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NE 2 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NE 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NE 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 53 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 54 E 5 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 57 E 5 6229 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 57 E 5 6229 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 57 E 5 6229 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 56 E 5 5920 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 55 S 3 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 54 S 3 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 S 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 S 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 S 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 S 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 E 6 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 E 6 5920 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 56 E 6 5920 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 55 E 6 5608 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 E 3 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 52 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 E 7 5295 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 53 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 52 53 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 E 5 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 E 6 5249 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com