Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 6277 6900 0 White 1
6 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 6277 6900 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 56 56 NW 5 6503 6900 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 58 58 W 7 6949 6900 0 White 4
9 AM Tue 60 62 W 7 7834 7834 934 White 8
10 AM Tue 62 65 W 7 8493 8493 1593 White 11
11 AM Tue 64 70 W 8 9581 9581 2681 White 16
12 Noon Tue 66 73 W 8 10273 10273 3373 White 19
1 PM Tue 67 75 W 8 10703 10703 3803 White 21
2 PM Tue 69 77 W 12 11132 11132 4232 White 23
3 PM Tue 69 76 W 12 10919 10919 4019 White 22
4 PM Tue 70 75 W 12 10703 10703 3803 White 21
5 PM Tue 70 74 W 12 10488 10488 3588 White 20
6 PM Tue 69 71 W 12 9797 9797 2897 White 17
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 12 9147 9147 2247 White 14
8 PM Tue 67 67 NW 7 8928 8928 2028 White 13
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 7 8493 8493 1593 White 11
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 7 8055 8055 1155 White 9
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 5 7614 7614 714 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NW 5 7172 6900 0 White 5
1 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 6503 6900 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 6277 6900 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 6277 6900 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 6277 6900 0 White 1
6 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 6503 6900 0 White 2
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
8 AM Wed 59 60 W 3 7393 7393 493 White 6
9 AM Wed 61 63 W 3 8055 8055 1155 White 9
10 AM Wed 63 66 W 3 8711 8711 1811 White 12
11 AM Wed 65 70 W 7 9581 9581 2681 White 16
12 Noon Wed 67 73 W 7 10273 10273 3373 White 19
1 PM Wed 69 76 W 7 10919 10919 4019 White 22
2 PM Wed 70 77 W 9 11132 11132 4232 White 23
3 PM Wed 71 77 W 9 11132 11132 4232 White 23
4 PM Wed 72 77 W 9 11132 11132 4232 White 23
5 PM Wed 72 74 W 12 10488 10488 3588 White 20
6 PM Wed 72 73 W 12 10273 10273 3373 White 19
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 9797 9797 2897 White 17
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 7 9365 9365 2465 White 15
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 7 9147 9147 2247 White 14
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 8711 8711 1811 White 12
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 8275 8275 1375 White 10
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 6 7834 7834 934 White 8
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 6 7393 7393 493 White 6
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
3 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 6503 6900 0 White 2
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 6503 6900 0 White 2
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
8 AM Thu 60 61 NE 5 7614 7614 714 White 7
9 AM Thu 62 64 NE 5 8275 8275 1375 White 10
10 AM Thu 64 68 NE 5 9147 9147 2247 White 14
11 AM Thu 66 72 S 5 10015 10015 3115 White 18
12 Noon Thu 68 75 S 5 10703 10703 3803 White 21
1 PM Thu 70 78 S 5 11344 11344 4444 White 24
2 PM Thu 72 80 S 5 11768 11768 4868 White 26
3 PM Thu 73 80 S 5 11768 11768 4868 White 26
4 PM Thu 74 79 S 5 11557 11557 4657 White 25
5 PM Thu 74 77 W 6 11132 11132 4232 White 23
6 PM Thu 73 75 W 6 10703 10703 3803 White 21
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 10015 10015 3115 White 18
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 9581 9581 2681 White 16
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 9147 9147 2247 White 14
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 6 8711 8711 1811 White 12
11 PM Thu 64 64 N 3 8275 8275 1375 White 10
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 N 3 7834 7834 934 White 8
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 7393 7393 493 White 6
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 3 7172 6900 0 White 5
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 3 6949 6900 0 White 4
4 AM Fri 57 57 N 3 6726 6900 0 White 3
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
6 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
7 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
8 AM Fri 60 61 E 5 7614 7614 714 White 7
9 AM Fri 61 63 E 5 8055 8055 1155 White 9
10 AM Fri 63 67 E 5 8928 8928 2028 White 13
11 AM Fri 65 71 SE 5 9797 9797 2897 White 17
12 Noon Fri 66 73 SE 5 10273 10273 3373 White 19
1 PM Fri 68 76 SE 5 10919 10919 4019 White 22
2 PM Fri 69 77 SE 5 11132 11132 4232 White 23
3 PM Fri 70 77 SE 5 11132 11132 4232 White 23
4 PM Fri 71 76 SE 5 10919 10919 4019 White 22
5 PM Fri 71 74 SW 5 10488 10488 3588 White 20
6 PM Fri 71 72 SW 5 10015 10015 3115 White 18
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 9581 9581 2681 White 16
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 9365 9365 2465 White 15
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 5 8928 8928 2028 White 13
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 8711 8711 1811 White 12
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 5 8275 8275 1375 White 10
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 5 7834 7834 934 White 8
1 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 7393 7393 493 White 6
2 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 7172 6900 0 White 5
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
5 AM Sat 57 57 E 5 6726 6900 0 White 3
6 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
7 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 7172 6900 0 White 5
8 AM Sat 60 61 E 5 7614 7614 714 White 7
9 AM Sat 62 64 E 5 8275 8275 1375 White 10
10 AM Sat 64 68 E 5 9147 9147 2247 White 14
11 AM Sat 66 72 SE 5 10015 10015 3115 White 18
12 Noon Sat 67 74 SE 5 10488 10488 3588 White 20
1 PM Sat 69 77 SE 5 11132 11132 4232 White 23
2 PM Sat 70 78 SE 5 11344 11344 4444 White 24
3 PM Sat 70 77 SE 5 11132 11132 4232 White 23
4 PM Sat 71 76 SE 5 10919 10919 4019 White 22
5 PM Sat 71 74 SW 3 10488 10488 3588 White 20
6 PM Sat 71 72 SW 3 10015 10015 3115 White 18
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 3 9581 9581 2681 White 16
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 3 9365 9365 2465 White 15
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 3 8928 8928 2028 White 13
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 3 8711 8711 1811 White 12
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 5 8275 8275 1375 White 10
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NW 5 7834 7834 934 White 8
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 7614 7614 714 White 7
2 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 7393 7393 493 White 6
3 AM Sun 59 59 NW 5 7172 6900 0 White 5
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 5 6949 6900 0 White 4
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 6949 6900 0 White 4
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 7172 6900 0 White 5
7 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 7393 7393 493 White 6
8 AM Sun 61 62 NE 3 7834 7834 934 White 8
9 AM Sun 63 65 NE 3 8493 8493 1593 White 11
10 AM Sun 65 69 NE 3 9365 9365 2465 White 15
11 AM Sun 67 73 S 6 10273 10273 3373 White 19
12 Noon Sun 69 76 S 6 10919 10919 4019 White 22
1 PM Sun 70 78 S 6 11344 11344 4444 White 24
2 PM Sun 71 79 S 6 11557 11557 4657 White 25
3 PM Sun 72 79 S 6 11557 11557 4657 White 25
4 PM Sun 73 78 S 6 11344 11344 4444 White 24
5 PM Sun 73 76 SW 5 10919 10919 4019 White 22
6 PM Sun 73 74 SW 5 10488 10488 3588 White 20
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 5 10015 10015 3115 White 18
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 5 9797 9797 2897 White 17
9 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 9365 9365 2465 White 15
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 5 9147 9147 2247 White 14
11 PM Sun 66 66 NW 5 8711 8711 1811 White 12
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NW 5 8275 8275 1375 White 10
1 AM Mon 63 63 NW 5 8055 8055 1155 White 9
2 AM Mon 61 61 NW 5 7614 7614 714 White 7
3 AM Mon 60 60 NW 5 7393 7393 493 White 6
4 AM Mon 59 59 NW 5 7172 6900 0 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com