Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 E 5 9 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 E 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 E 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 E 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 ENE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 ENE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 ENE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 ESE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 ESE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 ESE 5 9 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 65 SSE 5 9 8154 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 65 69 SSE 5 9 9868 8521 1621 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 68 72 SSE 5 9 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 70 74 S 4 6 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 71 74 S 4 6 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 71 73 S 4 6 11317 9923 3023 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 3 5 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 3 5 9868 8521 1621 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 63 63 SW 3 5 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 SSE 3 5 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SSE 3 5 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SSE 3 5 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 ENE 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 ENE 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 ENE 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 ENE 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 ENE 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 ENE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 5 9 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 ESE 6 11 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 61 ESE 6 11 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 ESE 6 11 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 67 S 8 12 9597 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 67 71 S 8 12 10571 9794 2894 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 69 73 S 8 12 11317 9923 3023 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 70 74 SSW 8 12 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 71 74 SSW 8 12 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 72 74 SSW 8 12 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 71 72 WSW 8 12 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 8 12 9868 8521 1621 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 8 12 8562 6900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 11 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 11 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 11 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 NNW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NNW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 NNW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NNW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 N 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 N 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 63 E 3 5 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 67 S 2 3 9597 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 67 70 S 2 3 9932 9545 2645 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 69 73 S 2 3 11317 9923 3023 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 71 75 SW 3 5 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 72 75 SW 3 5 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 72 74 SW 3 5 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 4 6 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 4 6 9803 8118 1218 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 4 6 8154 6900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 4 6 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 W 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 NW 4 6 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 N 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 N 3 5 8154 6900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 66 69 W 2 3 9868 8521 1621 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 68 72 W 2 3 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 70 74 W 2 3 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 72 76 W 2 3 12398 11246 4346 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 73 76 W 2 3 12398 11246 4346 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 73 75 W 2 3 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 72 73 SSW 1 2 11317 9923 3023 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 1 2 9868 8521 1621 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 66 66 SSW 1 2 8562 6900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 63 63 SSW 1 2 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 1 2 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 1 2 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 WNW 2 3 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 WNW 2 3 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 WNW 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 64 NNE 3 5 6279 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 67 E 2 3 9597 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 68 71 E 2 3 10571 9794 2894 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 70 73 E 2 3 11317 9923 3023 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 72 75 E 2 3 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 73 75 E 2 3 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 73 74 E 2 3 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 72 73 SSE 1 2 11317 9923 3023 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 70 70 SSE 1 2 9932 9545 2645 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 67 67 SSE 1 2 9597 6900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 65 65 SSE 1 2 8154 6900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 63 63 SSE 1 2 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 SSE 1 2 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 2 3 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 E 2 3 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 E 2 3 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 E 2 3 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 E 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 E 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 3 5 4921 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 62 NNE 3 5 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 NNE 3 5 8562 6900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 66 69 ESE 3 5 9868 8521 1621 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 68 72 ESE 3 5 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 70 74 ESE 3 5 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 71 75 ESE 3 5 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 72 75 ESE 3 5 12042 10880 3980 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 72 74 ESE 3 5 11682 10451 3551 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 71 72 S 2 3 10947 9858 2958 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 68 68 S 2 3 9803 8118 1218 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 65 65 S 2 3 8154 6900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 63 63 S 2 3 5822 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 S 2 3 5356 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 S 2 3 4921 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com