Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 S 8 2199 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 S 8 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 58 59 S 8 5395 3700 0 White 9
11 AM Tue 61 61 S 10 5823 4905 1205 White 11
12 Noon Tue 61 62 S 10 6037 6037 2337 White 12
1 PM Tue 63 64 S 10 6462 6462 2762 White 14
2 PM Tue 63 64 SW 13 6462 6462 2762 White 14
3 PM Tue 63 63 SW 13 6250 6250 2550 White 13
4 PM Tue 62 62 SW 13 6037 6037 2337 White 12
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 13 6037 6037 2337 White 12
6 PM Tue 62 62 SW 13 6037 6037 2337 White 12
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 13 5610 4258 558 White 10
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 10 4972 3700 0 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 57 57 SW 10 4306 3700 0 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 56 56 SW 10 3614 3700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 55 55 SW 3 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SW 3 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 54 54 SW 3 2588 3700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 2405 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 51 51 W 2 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 3 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 49 49 SW 3 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SW 3 2199 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SW 5 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 2588 3700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 4306 3700 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 5395 3700 0 White 9
12 Noon Wed 59 59 W 6 5395 3700 0 White 9
1 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 5395 3700 0 White 9
2 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 5610 4258 558 White 10
3 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 5610 4258 558 White 10
4 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 5610 4258 558 White 10
5 PM Wed 59 59 SW 7 5395 3700 0 White 9
6 PM Wed 58 58 SW 7 4972 3700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 56 56 SW 7 3614 3700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 54 54 SW 7 2588 3700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 7 2405 3700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 51 51 SW 7 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 2 2199 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 W 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 W 2 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 58 60 N 3 5610 4258 558 White 10
12 Noon Thu 61 63 N 3 6250 6250 2550 White 13
1 PM Thu 62 65 N 3 6674 6674 2974 White 15
2 PM Thu 64 67 N 3 7097 7097 3397 White 17
3 PM Thu 65 67 N 3 7097 7097 3397 White 17
4 PM Thu 66 67 N 3 7097 7097 3397 White 17
5 PM Thu 66 67 N 7 7097 7097 3397 White 17
6 PM Thu 63 63 N 7 6250 6250 2550 White 13
7 PM Thu 60 60 N 7 5610 4258 558 White 10
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 7 4306 3700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 54 54 N 7 2588 3700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 52 52 N 7 2405 3700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 2 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 2 2199 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NW 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 SE 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 SE 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 2 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 SE 2 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 58 59 SE 2 5395 3700 0 White 9
11 AM Fri 62 65 N 2 6674 6674 2974 White 15
12 Noon Fri 65 69 N 2 7517 7517 3817 White 19
1 PM Fri 67 71 N 2 7936 7936 4236 White 21
2 PM Fri 68 72 N 2 8144 8144 4444 White 22
3 PM Fri 70 73 N 2 8352 8352 4652 White 23
4 PM Fri 70 72 N 2 8144 8144 4444 White 22
5 PM Fri 69 70 N 7 7727 7727 4027 White 20
6 PM Fri 67 67 N 7 7097 7097 3397 White 17
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 7 6250 6250 2550 White 13
8 PM Fri 59 59 N 7 5395 3700 0 White 9
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 7 4306 3700 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 7 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 53 53 NE 1 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 1 2405 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 51 51 NE 1 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 1 2199 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 1 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NE 1 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 SE 1 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 SE 1 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 SE 1 2008 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 SE 1 2356 3700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 56 57 SE 1 4306 3700 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 61 63 SE 1 6250 6250 2550 White 13
11 AM Sat 67 70 NE 1 7727 7727 4027 White 20
12 Noon Sat 71 75 NE 1 8767 8767 5067 White 25
1 PM Sat 74 79 NE 1 9595 9595 5895 White 29
2 PM Sat 76 81 NE 1 10033 10033 6333 White 31
3 PM Sat 77 81 NE 1 10033 10033 6333 White 31
4 PM Sat 77 80 NE 1 9801 9801 6101 White 30
5 PM Sat 76 77 N 3 9182 9182 5482 White 27
6 PM Sat 73 73 N 3 8352 8352 4652 White 23
7 PM Sat 69 69 N 3 7517 7517 3817 White 19
8 PM Sat 65 65 N 3 6674 6674 2974 White 15
9 PM Sat 62 62 N 3 6037 6037 2337 White 12
10 PM Sat 60 60 N 3 5610 4258 558 White 10
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 1 4972 3700 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 W 1 3614 3700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 1 3614 3700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 1 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 1 2588 3700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 1 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 53 53 S 2 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 53 53 S 2 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 54 54 S 2 2588 3700 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 56 56 S 2 3614 3700 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 61 61 S 2 5823 4905 1205 White 11
10 AM Sun 66 67 S 2 7097 7097 3397 White 17
11 AM Sun 70 72 W 6 8144 8144 4444 White 22
12 Noon Sun 73 76 W 6 8975 8975 5275 White 26
1 PM Sun 75 78 W 6 9389 9389 5689 White 28
2 PM Sun 76 79 W 6 9595 9595 5895 White 29
3 PM Sun 76 78 W 6 9389 9389 5689 White 28
4 PM Sun 76 77 W 6 9182 9182 5482 White 27
5 PM Sun 75 76 NW 7 8975 8975 5275 White 26
6 PM Sun 72 72 NW 7 8144 8144 4444 White 22
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 7 7097 7097 3397 White 17
8 PM Sun 64 64 NW 7 6462 6462 2762 White 14
9 PM Sun 60 60 NW 7 5610 4258 558 White 10
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 7 4972 3700 0 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 3 4306 3700 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NW 3 3614 3700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 55 55 NW 3 2881 3700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 2455 3700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 3 2405 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 3 2199 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com