Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 33 33 NE 2 1440 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NE 2 1440 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 NE 2 1440 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 NE 2 1440 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 NE 2 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 NE 2 3454 3700 0 White 5
11 AM Tue 46 48 E 2 4330 4322 622 White 9
12 Noon Tue 49 51 E 2 4978 4978 1278 White 12
1 PM Tue 52 54 E 2 5614 5614 1914 White 15
2 PM Tue 53 55 E 1 5826 5826 2126 White 16
3 PM Tue 55 57 E 1 6247 6247 2547 White 18
4 PM Tue 55 56 E 1 6036 6036 2336 White 17
5 PM Tue 55 55 N 2 5826 5826 2126 White 16
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 2 5403 5403 1703 White 14
7 PM Tue 49 49 N 2 4547 4547 847 White 10
8 PM Tue 45 45 NE 1 3673 3700 0 White 6
9 PM Tue 43 43 NE 1 3235 3700 0 White 4
10 PM Tue 42 42 NE 1 2770 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 40 40 SE 5 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SE 5 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 3 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 E 3 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 3454 3700 0 White 5
11 AM Wed 48 49 S 7 4547 4547 847 White 10
12 Noon Wed 49 50 S 7 4765 4765 1065 White 11
1 PM Wed 51 52 S 7 5190 5190 1490 White 13
2 PM Wed 53 54 SW 7 5614 5614 1914 White 15
3 PM Wed 54 55 SW 7 5826 5826 2126 White 16
4 PM Wed 54 54 SW 7 5614 5614 1914 White 15
5 PM Wed 53 53 S 9 5403 5403 1703 White 14
6 PM Wed 51 51 S 9 4978 4978 1278 White 12
7 PM Wed 49 49 S 9 4547 4547 847 White 10
8 PM Wed 46 46 S 9 3892 3700 0 White 7
9 PM Wed 44 44 S 9 3454 3700 0 White 5
10 PM Wed 42 42 S 9 2770 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 41 41 SE 6 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 SE 6 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 40 40 SE 6 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 40 40 SE 6 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 40 40 SE 6 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 SE 6 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 SE 6 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 43 43 SE 6 3235 3700 0 White 4
10 AM Thu 46 46 SE 6 3892 3700 0 White 7
11 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 4547 4547 847 White 10
12 Noon Thu 51 52 S 7 5190 5190 1490 White 13
1 PM Thu 52 53 S 7 5403 5403 1703 White 14
2 PM Thu 53 54 S 7 5614 5614 1914 White 15
3 PM Thu 54 55 S 7 5826 5826 2126 White 16
4 PM Thu 54 54 S 7 5614 5614 1914 White 15
5 PM Thu 53 53 SW 7 5403 5403 1703 White 14
6 PM Thu 51 51 SW 7 4978 4978 1278 White 12
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 7 4330 4322 622 White 9
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 7 3673 3700 0 White 6
9 PM Thu 43 43 SW 7 3235 3700 0 White 4
10 PM Thu 42 42 SW 7 2770 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 41 41 S 3 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 S 3 2473 3700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 S 3 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 5 1478 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 SE 5 1478 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 SE 5 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 SE 5 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 3892 3700 0 White 7
11 AM Fri 50 52 SE 1 5190 5190 1490 White 13
12 Noon Fri 52 54 SE 1 5614 5614 1914 White 15
1 PM Fri 54 57 SE 1 6247 6247 2547 White 18
2 PM Fri 55 58 SE 1 6457 6457 2757 White 19
3 PM Fri 56 58 SE 1 6457 6457 2757 White 19
4 PM Fri 57 58 SE 1 6457 6457 2757 White 19
5 PM Fri 57 58 NW 3 6457 6457 2757 White 19
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 3 5826 5826 2126 White 16
7 PM Fri 51 51 NW 3 4978 4978 1278 White 12
8 PM Fri 47 47 NW 3 4111 3794 94 White 8
9 PM Fri 45 45 NW 3 3673 3700 0 White 6
10 PM Fri 42 42 NW 3 2770 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 41 41 E 2 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 E 2 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 E 2 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 E 2 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 E 2 1905 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 2 1478 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 SE 3 1478 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 SE 3 1440 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 SE 3 1478 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 SE 3 2325 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 44 SE 3 3454 3700 0 White 5
10 AM Sat 49 51 SE 3 4978 4978 1278 White 12
11 AM Sat 54 56 E 3 6036 6036 2336 White 17
12 Noon Sat 58 61 E 3 7082 7082 3382 White 22
1 PM Sat 60 63 E 3 7498 7498 3798 White 24
2 PM Sat 61 64 E 3 7705 7705 4005 White 25
3 PM Sat 63 65 E 3 7911 7911 4211 White 26
4 PM Sat 65 66 E 3 8116 8116 4416 White 27
5 PM Sat 64 65 NW 2 7911 7911 4211 White 26
6 PM Sat 61 61 NW 2 7082 7082 3382 White 22
7 PM Sat 56 56 NW 2 6036 6036 2336 White 17
8 PM Sat 52 52 NW 2 5190 5190 1490 White 13
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 2 4330 4322 622 White 9
10 PM Sat 46 46 NW 2 3892 3700 0 White 7
11 PM Sat 45 45 SE 3 3673 3700 0 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SE 3 3454 3700 0 White 5
1 AM Sun 43 43 SE 3 3235 3700 0 White 4
2 AM Sun 43 43 SE 3 3235 3700 0 White 4
3 AM Sun 43 43 SE 3 3235 3700 0 White 4
4 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 2770 3700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 42 42 SE 5 2770 3700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 41 41 SE 5 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 41 41 SE 5 2594 3700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 43 43 SE 5 3235 3700 0 White 4
9 AM Sun 46 46 SE 5 3892 3700 0 White 7
10 AM Sun 51 52 SE 5 5190 5190 1490 White 13
11 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 5826 5826 2126 White 16
12 Noon Sun 58 59 SE 3 6665 6665 2965 White 20
1 PM Sun 60 61 SE 3 7082 7082 3382 White 22
2 PM Sun 61 62 SE 3 7291 7291 3591 White 23
3 PM Sun 62 63 SE 3 7498 7498 3798 White 24
4 PM Sun 62 62 SE 3 7291 7291 3591 White 23
5 PM Sun 61 61 SW 3 7082 7082 3382 White 22
6 PM Sun 58 58 SW 3 6457 6457 2757 White 19
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 3 5826 5826 2126 White 16
8 PM Sun 52 52 SW 3 5190 5190 1490 White 13
9 PM Sun 50 50 SW 3 4765 4765 1065 White 11
10 PM Sun 48 48 SW 3 4330 4322 622 White 9
11 PM Sun 47 47 S 3 4111 3794 94 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 3 3892 3700 0 White 7
1 AM Mon 45 45 S 3 3673 3700 0 White 6
2 AM Mon 45 45 S 3 3673 3700 0 White 6
3 AM Mon 45 45 S 3 3673 3700 0 White 6
4 AM Mon 44 44 S 3 3454 3700 0 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com