Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 55 55 SW 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SW 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 64 W 2 2763 3700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 69 71 W 2 4414 3753 53 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 73 77 W 2 5360 4980 1280 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 76 82 N 3 5881 5574 1874 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 78 85 N 3 6166 5870 2170 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 81 89 N 3 6889 6612 2912 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 84 92 N 5 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 86 93 N 5 8195 7292 3592 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 87 92 N 5 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 87 90 NW 7 7479 6684 2984 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 86 88 NW 7 6781 6153 2453 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 85 85 NW 7 6166 5870 2170 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 78 78 NW 6 5474 5122 1422 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 73 73 NW 6 4804 4205 505 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 6 4014 3700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 66 66 NW 1 3267 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 NW 1 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 63 63 NW 1 2297 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 N 1 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 N 1 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 N 1 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 E 1 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 E 1 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 E 1 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 68 E 1 3766 3700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 73 75 E 1 5133 4593 893 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 78 82 E 1 5881 5574 1874 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 81 86 NW 3 6623 5964 2264 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 83 89 NW 3 6889 6612 2912 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 86 92 NW 3 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 88 94 NW 5 8384 7779 4079 Blue 31
3 PM Sun 90 95 NW 5 8910 7968 4268 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 91 95 NW 5 8910 7968 4268 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 91 94 NW 7 8384 7779 4079 Blue 31
6 PM Sun 89 90 NW 7 7479 6684 2984 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 87 87 NW 7 6694 6059 2359 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 83 83 NW 7 5976 5681 1981 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 79 79 NW 7 5587 5235 1535 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 75 75 NW 7 5133 4593 893 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 71 71 S 1 4414 3753 53 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 S 1 4014 3700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 68 68 S 1 3766 3700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 67 67 S 1 3517 3700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 65 65 S 1 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 64 64 S 1 2763 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 64 64 SE 2 2763 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 65 65 SE 2 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 68 68 SE 2 3766 3700 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 72 73 SE 2 4804 4205 505 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 78 80 SE 2 5692 5348 1648 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 84 87 SE 2 6694 6059 2359 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 89 94 NW 5 8384 7779 4079 Blue 31
12 Noon Mon 92 98 NW 5 10572 8782 5082 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 94 101 NW 5 12105 10425 6725 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 95 102 NW 5 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
3 PM Mon 96 102 NW 5 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
4 PM Mon 97 102 NW 5 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
5 PM Mon 97 100 NW 9 11610 9894 6194 Blue 37
6 PM Mon 95 96 NW 9 9481 8157 4457 Blue 33
7 PM Mon 92 92 NW 9 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
8 PM Mon 88 88 NW 9 6781 6153 2453 Blue 25
9 PM Mon 83 83 NW 9 5976 5681 1981 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 79 79 NW 9 5587 5235 1535 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 75 75 N 1 5133 4593 893 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 N 1 4609 3999 299 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 70 70 N 1 4218 3700 0 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 69 69 N 1 4014 3700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 67 67 N 1 3517 3700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 65 65 N 1 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 64 64 SE 2 2763 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 65 65 SE 2 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 69 69 SE 2 4014 3700 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 73 74 SE 2 4998 4399 699 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 78 80 SE 2 5692 5348 1648 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 83 87 SE 2 6694 6059 2359 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 88 93 NW 3 8195 7292 3592 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 91 97 NW 3 10034 8346 4646 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 93 100 NW 3 11610 9894 6194 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 95 102 NW 3 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 96 102 NW 3 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 97 102 NW 3 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
5 PM Tue 97 100 NW 9 11610 9894 6194 Blue 37
6 PM Tue 95 96 NW 9 9481 8157 4457 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 92 92 NW 9 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
8 PM Tue 88 88 NW 9 6781 6153 2453 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 83 83 NW 9 5976 5681 1981 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 9 5474 5122 1422 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 74 74 N 1 4998 4399 699 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 N 1 4609 3999 299 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 70 70 N 1 4218 3700 0 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 1 4014 3700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 1 3267 3700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 64 64 N 1 2763 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 64 64 E 2 2763 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 66 66 E 2 3267 3700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 70 70 E 2 4218 3700 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 75 76 E 2 5246 4787 1087 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 79 81 E 2 5787 5461 1761 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 83 87 E 2 6694 6059 2359 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 87 92 NW 5 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 90 97 NW 5 10034 8346 4646 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 93 100 NW 5 11610 9894 6194 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 95 102 NW 5 12588 10947 7247 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 97 103 NW 5 13058 11453 7753 Blue 40
4 PM Wed 98 103 NW 5 13058 11453 7753 Blue 40
5 PM Wed 98 101 NW 9 12105 10425 6725 Blue 38
6 PM Wed 95 97 NW 9 10034 8346 4646 Blue 34
7 PM Wed 92 92 NW 9 8004 6872 3172 Blue 29
8 PM Wed 87 87 NW 9 6694 6059 2359 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 82 82 NW 9 5881 5574 1874 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 77 77 NW 9 5360 4980 1280 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 73 73 N 2 4804 4205 505 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 N 2 4218 3700 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 68 68 N 2 3766 3700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 3267 3700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 2 2297 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 E 2 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 70 71 E 2 4414 3753 53 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 75 77 E 2 5360 4980 1280 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 79 83 E 2 5976 5681 1981 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 83 89 NW 5 6889 6612 2912 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 87 94 NW 5 8384 7779 4079 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 89 97 NW 5 10034 8346 4646 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 91 99 NW 5 11099 9348 5648 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 93 100 NW 5 11610 9894 6194 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 93 98 NW 5 10572 8782 5082 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 93 96 NW 9 9481 8157 4457 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 91 93 NW 9 8195 7292 3592 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 88 88 NW 9 6781 6153 2453 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 83 83 NW 9 5976 5681 1981 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 78 78 NW 9 5474 5122 1422 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 73 73 NW 9 4804 4205 505 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 2 4014 3700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 N 2 3267 3700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 65 65 N 2 3015 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 63 63 N 2 2297 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 N 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 2 2024 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com