Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 49 49 SE 0 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 0 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 SE 0 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 56 N 1 2099 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 63 N 1 3106 3700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 66 70 N 1 4647 4139 439 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 72 77 N 5 5986 5170 1470 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 77 83 N 5 10172 9317 5617 White 23
1 PM Tue 80 86 N 5 10790 10790 7090 White 26
2 PM Tue 83 89 N 5 11405 11405 7705 White 29
3 PM Tue 84 89 N 5 11405 11405 7705 White 29
4 PM Tue 85 89 N 5 11405 11405 7705 White 29
5 PM Tue 84 86 NW 7 10790 10790 7090 White 26
6 PM Tue 83 84 NW 7 10379 9625 5925 White 24
7 PM Tue 81 81 NW 7 9703 6710 3010 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 76 76 W 2 5712 5040 1340 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 71 71 W 2 4789 4304 604 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 2 4316 3746 46 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 65 65 SW 3 3770 3700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SW 3 2902 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 61 61 SW 3 2698 3700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 59 59 SW 3 2408 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 SW 3 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SW 3 2202 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SW 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 W 2 3106 3700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 65 67 W 2 4150 3700 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 69 70 W 2 4647 4139 439 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 72 73 W 2 5053 4633 933 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 74 75 W 2 5436 4911 1211 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 76 77 W 5 5986 5170 1470 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 76 77 W 5 5986 5170 1470 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 5986 5170 1470 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 76 76 NW 3 5712 5040 1340 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 75 75 NW 3 5436 4911 1211 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 74 74 NW 3 5183 4777 1077 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 69 69 NW 3 4481 3974 274 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 3 3984 3700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 3 3106 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 60 60 N 1 2514 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 1 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 1 2202 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 1 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 1 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 1 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 1 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 W 1 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 W 1 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 W 1 2099 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 W 1 2698 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 64 65 W 1 3770 3700 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 68 70 NW 2 4647 4139 439 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 71 74 NW 2 5183 4777 1077 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 74 77 NW 2 5986 5170 1470 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 76 79 NW 2 8425 5680 1980 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 76 78 NW 2 6971 5407 1707 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 77 79 NW 2 8425 5680 1980 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 76 77 NW 6 5986 5170 1470 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 75 75 NW 6 5436 4911 1211 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 74 74 NW 6 5183 4777 1077 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 4481 3974 274 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 3984 3700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 3106 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 60 60 NW 3 2514 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NW 3 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 NW 3 2202 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NW 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 E 2 2202 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 E 2 2514 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 61 NW 3 2698 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 63 63 NW 3 3106 3700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 65 65 NW 3 3770 3700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 66 66 NW 3 3984 3700 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 67 67 NW 3 4150 3700 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 67 67 NW 3 4150 3700 0 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 3984 3700 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 3984 3700 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 3327 3700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 2698 3700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 2099 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 N 3 2408 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 64 NW 3 3327 3700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 65 67 NW 3 4150 3700 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 67 69 NW 3 4481 3974 274 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 69 71 NW 3 4789 4304 604 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 69 71 NW 3 4789 4304 604 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 70 71 NW 3 4789 4304 604 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 69 70 NW 6 4647 4139 439 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 68 68 NW 6 4316 3746 46 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 67 67 NW 6 4150 3700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 63 63 NW 6 3106 3700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 6 2408 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 6 2099 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 N 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 NE 2 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 NE 2 2099 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 NE 2 2698 3700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 64 68 NW 3 4316 3746 46 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 68 73 NW 3 5053 4633 933 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 71 76 NW 3 5712 5040 1340 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 73 78 NW 3 6971 5407 1707 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 74 78 NW 3 6971 5407 1707 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 75 78 NW 3 6971 5407 1707 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 74 76 NW 6 5712 5040 1340 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 73 74 NW 6 5183 4777 1077 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 71 71 NW 6 4789 4304 604 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 67 67 NW 6 4150 3700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 6 2902 3700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 59 59 NW 6 2408 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 3 2099 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 2018 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com