Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 N 3 3470 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 69 70 N 3 4900 3700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 74 79 N 3 7137 7137 3437 White 13
12 Noon Tue 76 82 N 3 7769 7769 4069 White 16
1 PM Tue 79 85 N 3 8397 8397 4697 White 19
2 PM Tue 81 87 NW 8 8814 8814 5114 White 21
3 PM Tue 82 87 NW 8 8814 8814 5114 White 21
4 PM Tue 82 86 NW 8 8605 8605 4905 White 20
5 PM Tue 81 84 NW 10 8188 8188 4488 White 18
6 PM Tue 78 79 NW 10 7137 7137 3437 White 13
7 PM Tue 77 77 NW 10 6712 6712 3012 White 11
8 PM Tue 74 74 N 12 6068 5102 1402 White 8
9 PM Tue 69 69 N 12 4767 3700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 65 65 N 12 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 N 5 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 5 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 N 5 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 3 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 W 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 W 2 2276 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 70 W 2 4900 3700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 74 77 NW 3 6712 6712 3012 White 11
12 Noon Wed 77 81 NW 3 7559 7559 3859 White 15
1 PM Wed 81 85 NW 3 8397 8397 4697 White 19
2 PM Wed 83 87 NW 8 8814 8814 5114 White 21
3 PM Wed 84 88 NW 8 9021 9021 5321 White 22
4 PM Wed 84 87 NW 8 8814 8814 5114 White 21
5 PM Wed 83 85 NW 8 8397 8397 4697 White 19
6 PM Wed 80 81 NW 8 7559 7559 3859 White 15
7 PM Wed 79 79 NW 8 7137 7137 3437 White 13
8 PM Wed 76 76 NW 8 6498 6184 2484 White 10
9 PM Wed 71 71 NW 8 5137 4535 835 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 67 67 NW 8 3470 3700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 65 65 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 W 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 W 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 W 2 4620 3700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 70 74 W 2 6068 5102 1402 White 8
11 AM Thu 75 80 N 3 7348 7348 3648 White 14
12 Noon Thu 78 84 N 3 8188 8188 4488 White 18
1 PM Thu 81 88 N 3 9021 9021 5321 White 22
2 PM Thu 83 90 N 3 9437 9437 5737 White 23
3 PM Thu 84 90 N 3 9437 9437 5737 White 23
4 PM Thu 84 89 N 3 9229 9229 5529 White 23
5 PM Thu 83 86 NW 9 8605 8605 4905 White 20
6 PM Thu 80 82 NW 9 7769 7769 4069 White 16
7 PM Thu 79 79 NW 9 7137 7137 3437 White 13
8 PM Thu 75 75 NW 9 6283 5458 1758 White 9
9 PM Thu 71 71 NW 9 5137 4535 835 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 9 2276 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 N 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 N 1 2276 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 72 N 1 5636 4756 1056 White 6
11 AM Fri 73 79 N 3 7137 7137 3437 White 13
12 Noon Fri 76 83 N 3 7979 7979 4279 White 17
1 PM Fri 79 87 N 3 8814 8814 5114 White 21
2 PM Fri 81 89 N 3 9229 9229 5529 White 23
3 PM Fri 82 89 N 3 9229 9229 5529 White 23
4 PM Fri 82 87 N 3 8814 8814 5114 White 21
5 PM Fri 81 84 N 9 8188 8188 4488 White 18
6 PM Fri 78 80 N 9 7348 7348 3648 White 14
7 PM Fri 77 77 N 9 6712 6712 3012 White 11
8 PM Fri 73 73 N 9 5852 4888 1188 White 7
9 PM Fri 69 69 N 9 4767 3700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 64 64 N 9 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 E 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 E 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 62 E 2 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 67 E 2 3470 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 70 74 E 2 6068 5102 1402 White 8
11 AM Sat 76 82 N 2 7769 7769 4069 White 16
12 Noon Sat 80 87 N 2 8814 8814 5114 White 21
1 PM Sat 84 92 N 2 9849 9849 6149 White 25
2 PM Sat 87 95 N 2 10509 10509 6809 White 28
3 PM Sat 88 95 N 2 10509 10509 6809 White 28
4 PM Sat 88 93 N 2 10059 10059 6359 White 26
5 PM Sat 87 90 NW 6 9437 9437 5737 White 23
6 PM Sat 84 86 NW 6 8605 8605 4905 White 20
7 PM Sat 83 83 NW 6 7979 7979 4279 White 17
8 PM Sat 79 79 NW 6 7137 7137 3437 White 13
9 PM Sat 74 74 NW 6 6068 5102 1402 White 8
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 6 4767 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 66 66 NW 1 2276 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NW 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 E 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 E 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 E 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 E 1 2276 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 E 1 5137 4535 835 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 74 78 E 1 6925 6925 3225 White 12
11 AM Sun 80 86 NW 3 8605 8605 4905 White 20
12 Noon Sun 84 91 NW 3 9643 9643 5943 White 24
1 PM Sun 88 96 NW 3 10714 10714 7014 White 29
2 PM Sun 91 99 NW 3 11325 11325 7625 White 32
3 PM Sun 92 99 NW 3 11325 11325 7625 White 32
4 PM Sun 92 97 NW 3 10919 10919 7219 White 30
5 PM Sun 91 94 NW 7 10304 10304 6604 White 27
6 PM Sun 88 90 NW 7 9437 9437 5737 White 23
7 PM Sun 86 86 NW 7 8605 8605 4905 White 20
8 PM Sun 82 82 NW 7 7769 7769 4069 White 16
9 PM Sun 77 77 NW 7 6712 6712 3012 White 11
10 PM Sun 72 72 NW 7 5636 4756 1056 White 6
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 1 4620 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 1 2276 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 1 1709 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com