Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 34 34 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 S 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 S 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 S 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 E 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 52 E 2 2236 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 58 E 2 3074 3700 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 61 62 NE 1 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 63 63 NE 1 3585 3700 0 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 63 63 NE 1 3585 3700 0 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 61 61 SE 2 3380 3700 0 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 58 58 SE 2 3074 3700 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 55 55 SE 2 2593 3700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 52 52 SE 1 2236 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 SE 1 2171 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 SE 1 2139 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 SE 5 2073 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 W 1 2171 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 55 W 1 2593 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 59 60 W 1 3278 3700 0 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 61 62 N 2 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 61 62 N 2 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 59 59 N 2 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 56 56 E 3 2874 3700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 52 52 E 3 2236 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 E 3 2139 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 E 3 2073 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 E 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 E 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 N 1 2204 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 56 N 1 2874 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 58 59 N 1 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 60 61 N 1 3380 3700 0 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 61 62 N 1 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 60 60 N 1 3278 3700 0 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 59 59 NW 2 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 57 57 NW 2 2972 3700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 55 55 NW 2 2593 3700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 52 52 NW 2 2236 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 NW 2 2139 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NW 2 2073 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 SE 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 SE 1 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 SE 1 2139 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 53 SE 1 2285 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 56 SE 1 2874 3700 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 58 59 SE 1 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 60 60 SE 1 3278 3700 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 59 59 NW 3 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 56 56 NW 3 2874 3700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 51 51 NW 3 2204 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NW 3 2073 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 NW 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 NW 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 46 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 50 SE 5 2171 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 55 SE 5 2593 3700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 57 59 SE 5 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 60 61 SE 5 3380 3700 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 62 62 SE 5 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 61 61 E 2 3380 3700 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 57 57 E 2 2972 3700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 2236 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 E 2 2073 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 E 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 E 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 SE 5 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 49 SE 5 2139 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 55 SE 5 2593 3700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 57 59 SE 5 3176 3700 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 61 62 SE 5 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 62 62 SE 5 3483 3700 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 61 61 NW 2 3380 3700 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 57 57 NW 2 2972 3700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 52 52 NW 2 2236 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 NW 2 2073 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 NW 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NW 2 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 SE 3 2054 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com