Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 44 44 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 2164 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 SE 2 2397 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 NE 1 2894 3700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 58 59 NE 1 3252 3700 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 60 61 NE 1 3457 3700 0 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 62 63 N 2 3663 3700 0 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 63 64 N 2 3766 3700 0 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 62 62 N 2 3560 3700 0 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 56 56 NE 1 2894 3700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 54 54 NE 1 2630 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 1 2397 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 S 1 2319 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 S 1 2242 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 1 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SE 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 SE 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SE 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 SE 2 2242 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 SE 2 2475 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 55 N 1 2714 3700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 58 59 N 1 3252 3700 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 60 61 N 1 3457 3700 0 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 61 62 N 2 3560 3700 0 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 61 61 N 2 3457 3700 0 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 59 59 N 2 3252 3700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 56 56 N 2 2894 3700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 53 53 N 2 2552 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 N 2 2319 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 2 2164 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 S 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 S 1 2319 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 53 NW 1 2552 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 56 NW 1 2894 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 58 58 NW 1 3149 3700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 58 58 NW 1 3149 3700 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 57 57 NW 1 3046 3700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 56 56 NW 1 2894 3700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 54 54 N 2 2630 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 2 2397 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 2 2242 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 N 2 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 N 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 E 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 E 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 E 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 E 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 SE 2 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 E 1 2475 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 56 E 1 2894 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 57 58 E 1 3149 3700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 58 59 E 1 3252 3700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 58 59 E 1 3252 3700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 57 57 E 1 3046 3700 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 55 55 NE 1 2714 3700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 52 52 NE 1 2475 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NE 1 2319 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 1 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NE 1 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 SE 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SE 2 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 52 SE 2 2475 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 57 E 1 3046 3700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 61 62 E 1 3560 3700 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 65 66 E 1 4085 3700 0 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 66 67 E 1 4169 3760 60 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 65 65 E 1 3978 3700 0 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 63 63 E 1 3663 3700 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 60 60 NE 1 3354 3700 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 57 57 NE 1 3046 3700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 54 54 NE 1 2630 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 NE 1 2397 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NE 1 2242 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NE 1 2164 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 S 2 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 S 2 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 S 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 S 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 S 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 S 3 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 2475 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 57 S 1 3046 3700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 61 61 S 1 3457 3700 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 63 63 S 1 3663 3700 0 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 63 63 S 1 3663 3700 0 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 62 62 S 1 3560 3700 0 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 60 60 S 1 3354 3700 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 57 57 W 3 3046 3700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 53 53 W 3 2552 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 3 2319 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 W 3 2087 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 W 3 2031 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com