Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 28 28 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 30 30 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 30 30 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 31 31 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 32 32 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 33 33 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 34 34 N 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 35 35 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 37 37 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 38 38 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 39 39 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 39 39 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 40 40 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 38 38 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 36 36 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 34 34 WNW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 33 33 WSW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 30 30 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 29 29 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 28 28 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 28 28 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 28 28 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 28 28 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 28 28 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 27 27 SE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 31 32 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 35 37 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 39 42 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 42 45 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 45 48 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 48 51 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 48 49 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 48 48 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 48 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 46 46 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 39 39 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 38 38 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 36 36 S 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 S 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 35 35 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 35 35 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 35 35 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 34 34 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 34 34 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 34 34 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 34 34 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 38 39 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 44 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 47 49 NE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 51 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 51 53 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 53 54 N 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 52 52 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 51 51 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 50 50 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 47 47 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 39 39 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com