Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 32 32 E 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 32 32 E 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 28 28 E 3 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 S 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 S 1 2337 3700 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 S 1 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 36 36 E 1 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 38 38 E 1 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 40 41 E 1 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 41 42 N 2 3063 3700 0 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 42 42 N 2 3063 3700 0 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 43 43 N 2 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 42 42 NW 0 3063 3700 0 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 40 40 NW 0 2960 3700 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 39 39 NW 0 2909 3700 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 38 38 S 3 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 37 37 S 3 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 37 37 S 3 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 37 37 S 6 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 36 36 S 6 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 37 37 S 6 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 38 38 S 5 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 40 40 S 5 2960 3700 0 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 41 41 N 2 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 42 42 N 2 3063 3700 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 43 43 N 2 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 43 43 E 2 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 40 40 E 2 2960 3700 0 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 38 38 E 2 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 37 37 E 2 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 35 35 E 2 2578 3700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 34 34 E 2 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 33 33 SE 2 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 33 33 SE 2 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 SE 2 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 30 30 SE 3 2337 3700 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 SE 3 2337 3700 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 SE 3 1844 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 SE 3 1844 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 SE 3 2337 3700 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 37 37 E 2 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 40 41 E 2 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 43 44 E 2 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 45 46 E 3 3197 3700 0 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 45 46 E 3 3197 3700 0 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 45 45 E 3 3172 3700 0 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 44 44 E 3 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 41 41 E 3 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 38 38 E 3 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 36 36 SE 5 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 34 34 SE 5 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 32 32 SE 5 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 32 32 SE 6 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 31 31 SE 6 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 SE 6 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 31 31 SE 7 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 30 30 SE 7 2337 3700 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 SE 7 2337 3700 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 SE 5 1844 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 SE 5 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 SE 5 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 SE 5 1844 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 SE 5 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 34 34 SE 5 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 37 38 SE 5 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 40 41 SE 5 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 42 43 SE 5 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 43 44 E 3 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 44 45 E 3 3172 3700 0 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 43 43 E 3 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 42 42 E 3 3063 3700 0 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 40 40 E 3 2960 3700 0 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 38 38 E 3 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 36 36 SE 3 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 30 30 SE 3 2337 3700 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 35 35 SE 3 2578 3700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 38 38 SE 3 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 40 41 SE 3 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 42 43 SE 3 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 43 44 E 2 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 44 44 E 2 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 43 43 E 2 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 42 42 E 2 3063 3700 0 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 40 40 E 2 2960 3700 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 38 38 E 2 2818 3700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 36 36 SE 3 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 35 35 SE 3 2578 3700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 30 30 SE 3 2337 3700 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 SE 3 2454 3700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 36 36 SE 3 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 40 41 SE 3 3011 3700 0 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 43 44 SE 3 3148 3700 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 45 46 SE 3 3197 3700 0 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 46 47 E 3 3221 3700 0 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 47 48 E 3 3245 3700 0 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 46 46 E 3 3197 3700 0 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 45 45 E 3 3172 3700 0 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 43 43 E 3 3114 3700 0 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 3 2960 3700 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 37 37 SE 3 2701 3700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 36 36 SE 3 2609 3700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 34 34 SE 3 2547 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 33 33 SE 3 2516 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 32 32 SE 3 2485 3700 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com