Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 SW 2 2115 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 SW 2 4606 3789 89 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 63 66 NW 3 5483 4846 1146 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 67 72 NW 3 6465 5991 2291 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 70 75 NW 3 7206 6445 2745 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 71 76 NW 5 8336 6579 2879 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 73 77 NW 5 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 74 77 NW 5 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 73 74 NW 7 6868 6311 2611 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 70 70 NW 7 6190 5639 1939 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 5483 4846 1146 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 60 60 NW 3 4073 3700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 3 2734 3700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 53 53 NW 3 2020 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 SW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 0 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 S 0 2020 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 59 S 0 3804 3700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 61 64 N 2 5127 4320 620 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 64 68 N 2 5837 5286 1586 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 67 72 N 2 6465 5991 2291 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 70 75 N 3 7206 6445 2745 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 73 77 N 3 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 74 77 N 3 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 73 74 NW 9 6868 6311 2611 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 70 70 NW 9 6190 5639 1939 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 65 65 NW 9 5305 4584 884 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 61 61 NW 9 4340 3700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 9 3534 3700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 55 55 NW 9 2210 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 SE 1 2020 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SE 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SE 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SE 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SE 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SE 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 SE 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SE 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SE 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 SE 3 2210 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 SE 3 4606 3789 89 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 65 68 N 3 5837 5286 1586 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 69 73 N 3 6599 6166 2466 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 72 77 N 3 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 74 79 N 3 9735 8284 4584 White 24
3 PM Thu 76 80 N 3 9948 8697 4997 White 25
4 PM Thu 77 80 N 3 9948 8697 4997 White 25
5 PM Thu 76 77 NW 6 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 73 73 NW 6 6599 6166 2466 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 68 68 NW 6 5837 5286 1586 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 4870 4055 355 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 60 60 NW 6 4073 3700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 57 57 NW 6 3262 3700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 55 55 S 1 2210 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 S 1 2020 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 S 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 S 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 S 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 S 3 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 S 3 2734 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 62 63 S 3 4870 4055 355 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 68 70 NW 3 6190 5639 1939 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 72 75 NW 3 7206 6445 2745 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 74 77 NW 3 8860 6814 3114 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 75 78 NW 3 9526 7150 3450 White 23
3 PM Fri 76 79 NW 3 9735 8284 4584 White 24
4 PM Fri 76 78 NW 3 9526 7150 3450 White 23
5 PM Fri 75 76 NW 9 8336 6579 2879 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 72 72 NW 9 6465 5991 2291 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 67 67 NW 9 5660 5110 1410 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 63 63 NW 9 4870 4055 355 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 9 4073 3700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 57 57 NW 9 3262 3700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 1 2734 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 SW 1 2210 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 1 2020 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 SW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 SW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 E 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 E 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 E 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 E 2 2210 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 61 E 2 4340 3700 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 67 NW 3 5660 5110 1410 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 68 71 NW 3 6330 5815 2115 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 71 74 NW 3 6868 6311 2611 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 72 75 NW 3 7206 6445 2745 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 73 75 NW 3 7206 6445 2745 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 73 75 NW 3 7206 6445 2745 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 72 73 NW 8 6599 6166 2466 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 69 69 NW 8 6014 5463 1763 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 65 65 NW 8 5305 4584 884 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 61 61 NW 8 4340 3700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 8 3534 3700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 8 2734 3700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 54 54 NW 2 2115 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NW 2 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 N 5 3262 3700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 61 63 NW 3 4870 4055 355 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 65 68 NW 3 5837 5286 1586 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 67 70 NW 3 6190 5639 1939 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 70 73 NW 3 6599 6166 2466 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 71 73 NW 3 6599 6166 2466 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 71 72 NW 3 6465 5991 2291 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 70 71 NW 8 6330 5815 2115 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 67 67 NW 8 5660 5110 1410 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 63 63 NW 8 4870 4055 355 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 8 4073 3700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 2734 3700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 2115 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NW 1 1959 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com