Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 SW 6 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 S 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 S 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 S 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 E 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 E 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 E 1 4 3413 3700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 71 74 N 3 6 4731 4066 366 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 75 79 N 3 6 8139 5384 1684 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 78 82 N 3 6 9792 8072 4372 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 81 85 NNE 4 8 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 82 85 NNE 4 8 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 82 84 NNE 4 8 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 83 84 N 4 8 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 80 80 N 4 8 8531 5824 2124 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 75 75 N 4 8 4966 4284 584 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 73 73 SW 6 10 4513 3848 148 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 10 2854 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 6 10 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 6 10 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 SW 6 10 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 10 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 4 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 SSW 4 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 S 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 S 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 S 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 ENE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 68 ENE 2 5 3413 3700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 72 74 NNE 3 6 4731 4066 366 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 76 79 NNE 3 6 8139 5384 1684 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 80 83 NNE 3 6 9854 8459 4759 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 82 86 N 4 8 10828 9840 6140 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 84 87 N 4 8 11185 9903 6203 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 84 86 N 4 8 10828 9840 6140 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 83 84 NW 6 10 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 80 80 NW 6 10 8531 5824 2124 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 76 76 NW 6 10 5421 4501 801 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 2 5 4075 3700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 67 67 WNW 2 5 3109 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 2 5 2574 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 W 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 W 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 W 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 59 SE 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 66 SE 2 5 2854 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 73 N 2 5 4513 3848 148 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 75 78 N 2 5 6304 4935 1235 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 78 81 N 2 5 9542 6256 2556 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 81 84 NNW 2 5 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 83 86 NNW 2 5 10828 9840 6140 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 83 85 NNW 2 5 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 82 83 NW 3 6 9854 8459 4759 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 80 80 NW 3 6 8531 5824 2124 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 77 77 NW 3 6 5866 4718 1018 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 73 73 NW 3 6 4513 3848 148 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 68 68 NW 3 6 3413 3700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 3 6 2574 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SSW 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 2 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 63 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 71 N 4 8 4075 3700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 73 76 N 4 8 5421 4501 801 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 77 81 N 4 8 9542 6256 2556 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 80 83 N 4 8 9854 8459 4759 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 82 85 N 4 8 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 83 85 N 4 8 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 82 83 NW 4 8 9854 8459 4759 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 80 80 NW 4 8 8531 5824 2124 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 76 76 NW 4 8 5421 4501 801 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 72 72 NW 4 8 4294 3700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 68 68 NW 4 8 3413 3700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 4 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SSE 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SSE 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SSE 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SSE 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 1 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 65 SE 3 6 2714 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 72 N 3 6 4294 3700 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 75 78 N 3 6 6304 4935 1235 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 79 82 N 3 6 9792 8072 4372 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 81 84 NNW 3 6 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 82 84 NNW 3 6 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 82 83 NNW 3 6 9854 8459 4759 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 81 81 NNW 3 6 9542 6256 2556 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 78 78 NNW 3 6 6304 4935 1235 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 74 74 NNW 3 6 4731 4066 366 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 70 70 NNW 2 8 3855 3700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 67 67 NNW 2 8 3109 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 2 8 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 E 2 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 E 2 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 E 2 6 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 ESE 2 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 ESE 2 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 2 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 2 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 4 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 3 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 ESE 3 5 2513 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 66 ESE 3 5 2854 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 74 ENE 3 5 4731 4066 366 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 75 79 ENE 3 5 8139 5384 1684 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 79 83 ENE 3 5 9854 8459 4759 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 81 85 ENE 3 8 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 82 85 ENE 3 8 10363 9778 6078 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 82 84 ENE 3 8 9917 9461 5761 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 81 82 NNW 2 10 9792 8072 4372 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 78 78 NNW 2 10 6304 4935 1235 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 74 74 NNW 2 10 4731 4066 366 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 70 70 NNW 2 6 3855 3700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 67 67 NNW 2 6 3109 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 NNW 2 6 2574 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com