Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 2 2309 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 N 2 1834 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 2 1834 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NW 1 3106 3700 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 47 47 NW 1 3761 3761 61 White 5
10 AM Sun 49 49 NW 1 4198 4198 498 White 7
11 AM Sun 51 53 W 2 5062 5062 1362 White 11
12 Noon Sun 55 57 W 2 5912 5912 2212 White 15
1 PM Sun 59 61 W 2 6751 6751 3051 White 19
2 PM Sun 61 63 W 2 7169 7169 3469 White 21
3 PM Sun 63 65 W 2 7586 7586 3886 White 23
4 PM Sun 65 66 W 2 7793 7793 4093 White 24
5 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 7793 7793 4093 White 24
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 7586 7586 3886 White 23
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 5 7169 7169 3469 White 21
8 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 6333 6333 2633 White 17
9 PM Sun 56 56 NW 5 5700 5700 2000 White 14
10 PM Sun 54 54 NW 5 5275 5275 1575 White 12
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 3 5062 5062 1362 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 3 4848 4848 1148 White 10
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 3 4417 4417 717 White 8
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 3 4634 4634 934 White 9
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 3 4417 4417 717 White 8
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 3 4198 4198 498 White 7
5 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 3979 3979 279 White 6
6 AM Mon 48 48 SW 3 3979 3979 279 White 6
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 3 4198 4198 498 White 7
8 AM Mon 52 52 W 5 4848 4848 1148 White 10
9 AM Mon 55 55 W 5 5488 5488 1788 White 13
10 AM Mon 58 59 W 5 6333 6333 2633 White 17
11 AM Mon 60 62 NW 6 6961 6961 3261 White 20
12 Noon Mon 62 65 NW 6 7586 7586 3886 White 23
1 PM Mon 64 67 NW 6 8001 8001 4301 White 25
2 PM Mon 66 69 NW 8 8414 8414 4714 White 27
3 PM Mon 67 69 NW 8 8414 8414 4714 White 27
4 PM Mon 68 69 NW 8 8414 8414 4714 White 27
5 PM Mon 67 68 NW 9 8208 8208 4508 White 26
6 PM Mon 66 66 NW 9 7793 7793 4093 White 24
7 PM Mon 63 63 NW 9 7169 7169 3469 White 21
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 9 6543 6543 2843 White 18
9 PM Mon 57 57 NW 9 5912 5912 2212 White 15
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 9 5488 5488 1788 White 13
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 1 5062 5062 1362 White 11
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 W 1 4634 4634 934 White 9
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 1 4634 4634 934 White 9
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 1 4417 4417 717 White 8
3 AM Tue 49 49 W 1 4198 4198 498 White 7
4 AM Tue 47 47 W 1 3761 3761 61 White 5
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 2 3761 3761 61 White 5
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 2 3979 3979 279 White 6
7 AM Tue 50 50 S 2 4417 4417 717 White 8
8 AM Tue 53 54 S 2 5275 5275 1575 White 12
9 AM Tue 57 59 S 2 6333 6333 2633 White 17
10 AM Tue 61 64 S 2 7378 7378 3678 White 22
11 AM Tue 65 71 NW 5 8827 8827 5127 White 29
12 Noon Tue 68 75 NW 5 9671 9671 5971 White 33
1 PM Tue 70 78 NW 5 10278 10278 6578 White 36
2 PM Tue 72 79 NW 5 10480 10480 6780 White 37
3 PM Tue 74 80 NW 5 10681 10681 6981 White 38
4 PM Tue 75 80 NW 5 10681 10681 6981 White 38
5 PM Tue 75 77 NW 10 10076 10076 6376 White 35
6 PM Tue 72 73 NW 10 9246 9246 5546 White 31
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 10 8208 8208 4508 White 26
8 PM Tue 64 64 NW 10 7378 7378 3678 White 22
9 PM Tue 60 60 NW 10 6543 6543 2843 White 18
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 10 5912 5912 2212 White 15
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 1 5488 5488 1788 White 13
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 1 5062 5062 1362 White 11
1 AM Wed 51 51 N 1 4634 4634 934 White 9
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 1 4198 4198 498 White 7
3 AM Wed 48 48 N 1 3979 3979 279 White 6
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 1 3543 3700 0 White 4
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 5 3543 3700 0 White 4
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 5 3761 3761 61 White 5
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 5 4417 4417 717 White 8
8 AM Wed 53 54 N 5 5275 5275 1575 White 12
9 AM Wed 57 59 N 5 6333 6333 2633 White 17
10 AM Wed 61 64 N 5 7378 7378 3678 White 22
11 AM Wed 65 69 N 3 8414 8414 4714 White 27
12 Noon Wed 68 72 N 3 9033 9033 5333 White 30
1 PM Wed 71 76 N 3 9873 9873 6173 White 34
2 PM Wed 73 77 N 3 10076 10076 6376 White 35
3 PM Wed 74 78 N 3 10278 10278 6578 White 36
4 PM Wed 75 78 N 3 10278 10278 6578 White 36
5 PM Wed 74 76 N 7 9873 9873 6173 White 34
6 PM Wed 72 73 N 7 9246 9246 5546 White 31
7 PM Wed 69 69 N 7 8414 8414 4714 White 27
8 PM Wed 66 66 N 7 7793 7793 4093 White 24
9 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 6961 6961 3261 White 20
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 7 6123 6123 2423 White 16
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 1 5488 5488 1788 White 13
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 1 5275 5275 1575 White 12
1 AM Thu 53 53 N 1 5062 5062 1362 White 11
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 1 4848 4848 1148 White 10
3 AM Thu 50 50 N 1 4417 4417 717 White 8
4 AM Thu 49 49 N 1 4198 4198 498 White 7
5 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 4198 4198 498 White 7
6 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 4417 4417 717 White 8
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 5062 5062 1362 White 11
8 AM Thu 56 57 E 3 5912 5912 2212 White 15
9 AM Thu 59 61 E 3 6751 6751 3051 White 19
10 AM Thu 63 66 E 3 7793 7793 4093 White 24
11 AM Thu 66 70 NW 3 8621 8621 4921 White 28
12 Noon Thu 69 73 NW 3 9246 9246 5546 White 31
1 PM Thu 71 76 NW 3 9873 9873 6173 White 34
2 PM Thu 73 77 NW 3 10076 10076 6376 White 35
3 PM Thu 74 78 NW 3 10278 10278 6578 White 36
4 PM Thu 75 78 NW 3 10278 10278 6578 White 36
5 PM Thu 74 76 NW 7 9873 9873 6173 White 34
6 PM Thu 72 73 NW 7 9246 9246 5546 White 31
7 PM Thu 69 69 NW 7 8414 8414 4714 White 27
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 7 7586 7586 3886 White 23
9 PM Thu 62 62 NW 7 6961 6961 3261 White 20
10 PM Thu 58 58 NW 7 6123 6123 2423 White 16
11 PM Thu 56 56 N 2 5700 5700 2000 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 N 2 5275 5275 1575 White 12
1 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 5062 5062 1362 White 11
2 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 4848 4848 1148 White 10
3 AM Fri 51 51 N 2 4634 4634 934 White 9
4 AM Fri 49 49 N 2 4198 4198 498 White 7
5 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 4198 4198 498 White 7
6 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 4417 4417 717 White 8
7 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 4848 4848 1148 White 10
8 AM Fri 55 56 SE 3 5700 5700 2000 White 14
9 AM Fri 59 61 SE 3 6751 6751 3051 White 19
10 AM Fri 63 67 SE 3 8001 8001 4301 White 25
11 AM Fri 67 72 N 3 9033 9033 5333 White 30
12 Noon Fri 70 76 N 3 9873 9873 6173 White 34
1 PM Fri 72 78 N 3 10278 10278 6578 White 36
2 PM Fri 74 80 N 3 10681 10681 6981 White 38
3 PM Fri 76 81 N 3 10882 10882 7182 White 39
4 PM Fri 76 80 N 3 10681 10681 6981 White 38
5 PM Fri 76 78 NW 7 10278 10278 6578 White 36
6 PM Fri 74 75 NW 7 9671 9671 5971 White 33
7 PM Fri 71 71 NW 7 8827 8827 5127 White 29
8 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 8001 8001 4301 White 25
9 PM Fri 63 63 NW 7 7169 7169 3469 White 21
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 7 6333 6333 2633 White 17
11 PM Fri 56 56 N 2 5700 5700 2000 White 14
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 2 5275 5275 1575 White 12
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 2 5062 5062 1362 White 11
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 2 4634 4634 934 White 9
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 2 4198 4198 498 White 7
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 2 3979 3979 279 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com