Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 34 34 S 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 S 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 S 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 S 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 S 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 S 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 3279 3700 0 White 1
11 AM Fri 44 45 SE 3 4149 4149 449 White 5
12 Noon Fri 46 47 SE 3 4587 4587 887 White 7
1 PM Fri 47 48 N 2 4805 4805 1105 White 8
2 PM Fri 46 46 N 2 4368 4368 668 White 6
3 PM Fri 45 45 N 2 4149 4149 449 White 5
4 PM Fri 42 42 NE 3 3497 3700 0 White 2
5 PM Fri 38 38 NE 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 34 34 NE 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 E 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 E 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 E 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 28 28 SE 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 SE 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 SE 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 SE 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 SE 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 SE 3 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 SE 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 SE 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 25 25 SE 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 E 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 E 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 E 2 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 E 2 2046 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 45 E 2 4149 4149 449 White 5
12 Noon Sat 47 48 E 2 4805 4805 1105 White 8
1 PM Sat 49 50 E 2 5225 5225 1525 White 10
2 PM Sat 48 49 E 2 5015 5015 1315 White 9
3 PM Sat 47 47 E 2 4587 4587 887 White 7
4 PM Sat 45 45 NE 1 4149 4149 449 White 5
5 PM Sat 42 42 NE 1 3497 3700 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 39 39 NE 1 2046 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 NE 1 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 NE 1 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NE 1 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 1634 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 5 2046 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 3932 3700 0 White 4
11 AM Sun 48 48 S 5 4805 4805 1105 White 8
12 Noon Sun 51 51 S 5 5434 5434 1734 White 11
1 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 5851 5851 2151 White 13
2 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 5851 5851 2151 White 13
3 PM Sun 52 52 S 5 5643 5643 1943 White 12
4 PM Sun 50 50 S 7 5225 5225 1525 White 10
5 PM Sun 48 48 S 7 4805 4805 1105 White 8
6 PM Sun 46 46 S 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
7 PM Sun 45 45 S 7 4149 4149 449 White 5
8 PM Sun 44 44 S 7 3932 3700 0 White 4
9 PM Sun 44 44 S 7 3932 3700 0 White 4
10 PM Sun 43 43 S 8 3714 3700 0 White 3
11 PM Sun 43 43 S 8 3714 3700 0 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 S 8 3497 3700 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 3497 3700 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 3497 3700 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 8 3279 3700 0 White 1
4 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 3279 3700 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 3279 3700 0 White 1
6 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 3279 3700 0 White 1
7 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 3279 3700 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 43 43 SE 7 3714 3700 0 White 3
9 AM Mon 45 45 SE 7 4149 4149 449 White 5
10 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 4587 4587 887 White 7
11 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 5225 5225 1525 White 10
12 Noon Mon 51 51 SE 5 5434 5434 1734 White 11
1 PM Mon 52 52 SE 5 5643 5643 1943 White 12
2 PM Mon 52 52 SE 5 5643 5643 1943 White 12
3 PM Mon 51 51 SE 5 5434 5434 1734 White 11
4 PM Mon 50 50 SE 7 5225 5225 1525 White 10
5 PM Mon 48 48 SE 7 4805 4805 1105 White 8
6 PM Mon 46 46 SE 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
7 PM Mon 45 45 SE 7 4149 4149 449 White 5
8 PM Mon 44 44 SE 7 3932 3700 0 White 4
9 PM Mon 44 44 SE 7 3932 3700 0 White 4
10 PM Mon 43 43 SE 5 3714 3700 0 White 3
11 PM Mon 43 43 SE 5 3714 3700 0 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 SE 5 3714 3700 0 White 3
1 AM Tue 43 43 SE 5 3714 3700 0 White 3
2 AM Tue 43 43 SE 5 3714 3700 0 White 3
3 AM Tue 42 42 SE 5 3497 3700 0 White 2
4 AM Tue 42 42 SE 2 3497 3700 0 White 2
5 AM Tue 42 42 SE 2 3497 3700 0 White 2
6 AM Tue 42 42 SE 2 3497 3700 0 White 2
7 AM Tue 42 42 SE 2 3497 3700 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 44 44 SE 2 3932 3700 0 White 4
9 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 4368 4368 668 White 6
10 AM Tue 49 49 SE 6 5015 5015 1315 White 9
11 AM Tue 52 52 SE 6 5643 5643 1943 White 12
12 Noon Tue 54 54 SE 6 6060 6060 2360 White 14
1 PM Tue 55 55 SE 6 6268 6268 2568 White 15
2 PM Tue 55 55 SE 6 6268 6268 2568 White 15
3 PM Tue 54 54 SE 6 6060 6060 2360 White 14
4 PM Tue 53 53 SE 8 5851 5851 2151 White 13
5 PM Tue 51 51 SE 8 5434 5434 1734 White 11
6 PM Tue 49 49 SE 8 5015 5015 1315 White 9
7 PM Tue 48 48 SE 8 4805 4805 1105 White 8
8 PM Tue 47 47 SE 8 4587 4587 887 White 7
9 PM Tue 47 47 SE 8 4587 4587 887 White 7
10 PM Tue 46 46 SE 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
11 PM Tue 46 46 SE 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SE 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
1 AM Wed 46 46 SE 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
2 AM Wed 46 46 SE 7 4368 4368 668 White 6
3 AM Wed 45 45 SE 7 4149 4149 449 White 5
4 AM Wed 45 45 SE 8 4149 4149 449 White 5
5 AM Wed 45 45 SE 8 4149 4149 449 White 5
6 AM Wed 45 45 SE 8 4149 4149 449 White 5
7 AM Wed 45 45 SE 8 4149 4149 449 White 5
8 AM Wed 46 46 SE 8 4368 4368 668 White 6
9 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 4805 4805 1105 White 8
10 AM Wed 51 51 S 9 5434 5434 1734 White 11
11 AM Wed 53 53 S 9 5851 5851 2151 White 13
12 Noon Wed 54 54 S 9 6060 6060 2360 White 14
1 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 6268 6268 2568 White 15
2 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 6268 6268 2568 White 15
3 PM Wed 54 54 S 9 6060 6060 2360 White 14
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 3 5851 5851 2151 White 13
5 PM Wed 51 51 S 3 5434 5434 1734 White 11
6 PM Wed 49 49 S 3 5015 5015 1315 White 9
7 PM Wed 48 48 S 3 4805 4805 1105 White 8
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 3 4587 4587 887 White 7
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 3 4587 4587 887 White 7
10 PM Wed 46 46 S 5 4368 4368 668 White 6
11 PM Wed 46 46 S 5 4368 4368 668 White 6
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 5 4368 4368 668 White 6
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 5 4368 4368 668 White 6
2 AM Thu 46 46 S 5 4368 4368 668 White 6
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 5 4149 4149 449 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com