Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 40 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 39 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 43 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 45 45 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 46 46 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 46 46 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 46 46 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 46 46 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 45 45 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 42 42 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 40 40 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 39 39 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 39 39 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 38 38 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 38 38 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 37 37 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 37 37 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 38 38 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 42 42 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 44 44 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 45 45 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 46 46 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 46 46 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 45 45 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 44 44 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 44 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 44 44 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 44 44 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 45 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 46 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 49 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 50 50 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 51 51 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 51 51 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 50 50 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 49 49 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 48 48 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 46 46 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 45 45 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 44 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 43 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 46 46 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 46 46 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 45 45 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 43 43 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 39 39 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 38 38 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 37 37 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 36 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 36 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 35 35 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 35 35 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 34 34 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 35 35 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 34 34 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 33 33 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 33 33 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 33 33 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 34 34 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 37 37 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 39 39 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 42 42 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 43 43 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 43 43 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 43 43 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 42 42 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 40 40 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 38 38 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 37 37 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 35 35 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 34 34 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 34 34 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 33 33 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 32 32 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 32 32 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 32 32 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 32 32 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 31 31 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 31 31 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 32 32 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 34 34 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 38 38 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 41 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 45 45 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 48 49 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 49 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 49 49 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 46 46 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 44 44 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 41 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 39 39 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 37 37 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 36 36 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 35 35 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 34 34 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 34 34 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 34 34 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 33 33 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com