Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 42 42 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 E 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 65 NE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 71 NE 3 6598 3700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 72 75 NE 3 8382 6734 3034 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 75 78 N 6 8777 8354 4654 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 76 78 N 6 8777 8354 4654 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 76 77 N 6 8645 7869 4169 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 75 76 N 6 8513 7312 3612 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 72 72 N 6 6825 3700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 68 68 N 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 N 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 NE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SE 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 SE 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 70 NE 5 6457 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 72 76 NE 5 8513 7312 3612 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 76 81 NE 5 9361 8748 5048 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 79 83 NE 5 9704 9042 5342 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 80 84 NE 5 9875 9320 5620 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 80 82 NE 5 9532 8879 5179 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 79 80 N 5 9109 8617 4917 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 76 76 N 5 8513 7312 3612 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 72 72 N 5 6825 3700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 68 68 N 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 N 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 E 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 69 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 77 SE 5 8645 7869 4169 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 80 84 SE 5 9875 9320 5620 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 83 87 SE 5 11048 9831 6131 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 87 91 SE 5 12550 11142 7442 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 87 90 SE 5 11883 11007 7307 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 88 90 SE 5 11883 11007 7307 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 86 87 W 5 11048 9831 6131 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 83 83 W 5 9704 9042 5342 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 78 78 W 5 8777 8354 4654 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 5 7411 6295 2595 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 SE 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 70 SE 6 6457 3700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 75 78 SE 2 8777 8354 4654 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 81 85 SE 2 10534 9490 5790 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 85 89 SE 2 11534 10810 7110 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 88 92 SE 2 13253 11423 7723 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 89 92 SE 2 13253 11423 7723 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 89 91 SE 2 12550 11142 7442 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 87 88 NW 6 11183 10195 6495 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 84 84 NW 6 9875 9320 5620 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 79 79 NW 6 8909 8485 4785 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 74 74 NW 6 7975 6577 2877 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 S 2 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 S 2 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 S 2 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 S 2 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 S 2 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 S 2 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 69 SE 3 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 75 NW 1 8382 6734 3034 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 78 81 NW 1 9361 8748 5048 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 82 86 NW 1 10897 9660 5960 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 85 89 NW 1 11534 10810 7110 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 86 89 NW 1 11534 10810 7110 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 86 88 NW 1 11183 10195 6495 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 84 85 NW 7 10534 9490 5790 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 81 81 NW 7 9361 8748 5048 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 76 76 NW 7 8513 7312 3612 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 71 71 NW 7 6598 3700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NW 7 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 W 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 W 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 SW 0 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SW 0 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SW 0 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SW 0 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 SW 0 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 65 SW 0 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 72 NW 3 6825 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 74 77 NW 3 8645 7869 4169 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 77 81 NW 3 9361 8748 5048 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 80 84 NW 3 9875 9320 5620 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 81 84 NW 3 9875 9320 5620 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 81 83 NW 3 9704 9042 5342 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 79 80 NW 7 9109 8617 4917 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 77 77 NW 7 8645 7869 4169 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 72 72 NW 7 6825 3700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 67 67 NW 7 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 NW 7 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 NW 7 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 SE 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 SE 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 SE 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 SE 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 SE 1 1775 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com