Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 47 47 W 8 2355 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 44 44 W 8 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 8 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 W 7 2355 3700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 7 1569 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 W 7 2226 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 2484 3700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 48 48 W 5 2484 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 48 48 W 5 2484 3700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 49 49 W 8 3014 3700 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 48 48 W 8 2484 3700 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 45 45 W 8 1569 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 40 40 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 37 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SW 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 SW 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 SW 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 37 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 38 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 39 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 42 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 42 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 SW 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 34 34 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 W 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 31 31 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 38 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 40 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 42 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 43 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 43 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 S 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 S 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 S 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 S 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 S 5 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 SE 9 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 SE 9 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 SE 9 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 SE 9 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 SE 9 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 SE 9 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 S 12 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 S 12 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 40 SE 16 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 42 SE 16 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 43 SE 16 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 44 SE 16 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 44 SE 16 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 42 SE 16 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 SE 17 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 SE 17 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 39 39 SE 17 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 SE 17 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 SE 17 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 SE 17 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 S 2 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 S 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 S 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 S 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 S 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 S 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 S 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 S 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 39 S 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 41 41 S 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 42 42 S 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 42 42 S 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 41 41 S 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 39 SW 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 38 38 SW 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 36 SW 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 SW 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 SW 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 SW 1 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 SE 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 SE 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 SE 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 SE 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 SE 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 SE 3 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 SE 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 SE 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 SE 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 SE 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 SE 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 SE 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 43 43 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 44 44 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 44 44 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 43 43 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 39 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 S 6 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SE 7 1529 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com