Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SE 3 5 3255 2990 220 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 71 71 SE 5 8 2990 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 69 69 SE 3 6 2814 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 SE 2 4 2582 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 SE 2 4 2814 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 2 4 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 ESE 2 4 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 ESE 2 4 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 ESE 2 3 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 ESE 3 4 3255 2990 220 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 80 84 ESE 4 4 8755 6200 3430 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 89 94 ESE 4 5 11458 11458 8688 White 25
12 Noon Sun 92 98 SE 5 6 12275 12275 9505 White 29
1 PM Sun 94 100 SSE 4 5 12680 12680 9910 White 31
2 PM Sun 95 100 SSE 4 4 12680 12680 9910 White 31
3 PM Sun 91 93 S 2 3 11251 11251 8481 White 24
4 PM Sun 91 92 SW 2 3 11044 11044 8274 White 23
5 PM Sun 89 89 WSW 4 5 10421 9948 7178 White 20
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 3 3 4158 3659 889 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 2 2 6270 4153 1383 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 78 78 E 1 2 4158 3659 889 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 74 74 E 2 3 3255 2990 220 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 77 77 SE 2 3 4035 3254 484 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 76 76 S 2 3 3913 3166 396 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 WSW 2 3 2582 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 76 76 SE 2 3 3913 3166 396 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 75 75 SE 2 4 3682 3078 308 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 63 63 ESE 2 4 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 ESE 3 6 3079 2813 43 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 71 71 ESE 3 7 2990 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 60 60 E 3 7 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 E 4 8 2902 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 73 73 E 4 7 3167 2902 132 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 69 71 E 5 6 2990 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 79 82 ESE 7 8 7124 4250 1480 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 87 92 ESE 8 9 11044 11044 8274 White 23
12 Noon Mon 90 96 ESE 6 8 11867 11867 9097 White 27
1 PM Mon 90 95 ESE 4 5 11663 11663 8893 White 26
2 PM Mon 91 95 ESE 2 3 11663 11663 8893 White 26
3 PM Mon 94 97 SSE 1 1 12071 12071 9301 White 28
4 PM Mon 92 93 WSW 1 1 11251 11251 8481 White 24
5 PM Mon 91 91 W 2 3 10837 10837 8067 White 22
6 PM Mon 86 86 WNW 4 5 9771 8367 5597 White 17
7 PM Mon 84 84 NW 6 8 8755 6200 3430 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 81 81 NNW 6 11 6270 4153 1383 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 73 73 N 6 10 3167 2902 132 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 80 80 NNE 5 9 5474 4030 1260 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 79 79 NNE 6 11 4253 3908 1138 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NE 6 11 2814 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 76 76 E 7 13 3913 3166 396 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 75 75 ESE 7 13 3682 3078 308 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 65 65 ESE 7 14 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 7 14 3079 2813 43 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 71 71 ESE 6 13 2990 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 64 64 ESE 4 9 2533 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 E 2 5 2902 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 74 74 ESE 2 2 3255 2990 220 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 71 73 SE 4 5 3167 2902 132 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 78 81 SSE 5 5 6270 4153 1383 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 86 91 S 4 5 10837 10837 8067 White 22
12 Noon Tue 93 99 SW 4 4 12478 12478 9708 White 30
1 PM Tue 90 95 WSW 5 6 11663 11663 8893 White 26
2 PM Tue 91 95 W 7 8 11663 11663 8893 White 26
3 PM Tue 95 98 WNW 9 11 12275 12275 9505 White 29
4 PM Tue 90 91 NW 7 8 10837 10837 8067 White 22
5 PM Tue 83 83 SW 11 13 8425 5399 2629 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 88 88 SSW 13 15 10209 9020 6250 White 19
7 PM Tue 72 72 SSW 9 12 3079 2813 43 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 69 69 SSE 7 9 2814 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 80 80 SE 6 8 5474 4030 1260 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 68 68 SE 6 9 2582 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 SE 4 6 2814 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com