Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 WSW 5 9 3132 2821 51 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 78 78 SW 3 5 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 76 76 S 4 6 2759 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 75 75 S 5 9 2696 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 73 73 SSE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 SSE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 SSE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SSE 8 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 SSE 8 12 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 85 87 SE 6 10 3621 3409 639 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 90 94 ESE 5 9 7787 4264 1494 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 94 100 E 3 5 13926 9787 7017 White 27
12 Noon Thu 97 104 NE 1 2 14740 14740 11970 White 31
1 PM Thu 98 105 S 4 6 14944 14944 12174 White 32
2 PM Thu 100 106 S 6 10 15147 15147 12377 White 33
3 PM Thu 100 104 NNW 6 10 14740 14740 11970 White 31
4 PM Thu 99 101 NNW 8 12 14130 14130 11360 White 28
5 PM Thu 97 97 NNW 6 10 9942 7628 4858 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 95 95 W 13 20 8549 5086 2316 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 92 92 E 8 12 5218 3866 1096 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 88 88 E 9 13 3691 3479 709 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 87 87 S 8 12 3621 3409 639 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 85 85 S 8 12 3481 3270 500 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 82 82 S 6 10 3272 2999 229 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SSE 8 12 3132 2821 51 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 78 78 S 5 9 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 8 12 2759 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 6 10 2759 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 74 74 SW 5 9 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 74 74 SE 5 9 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 73 73 S 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 74 SE 4 6 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 78 78 SSE 8 12 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 83 85 S 6 10 3481 3270 500 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 87 91 S 3 5 4275 3689 919 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 91 95 SSE 3 5 8549 5086 2316 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 94 99 ESE 5 9 13722 9118 6348 White 26
1 PM Fri 96 101 SE 5 9 14130 14130 11360 White 28
2 PM Fri 97 101 NW 6 10 14130 14130 11360 White 28
3 PM Fri 96 99 SE 5 9 13722 9118 6348 White 26
4 PM Fri 94 95 SSW 14 23 8549 5086 2316 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 92 92 SW 12 19 5218 3866 1096 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 89 89 SW 17 26 3874 3549 779 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 86 86 W 17 26 3551 3340 570 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 83 83 WSW 11 17 3342 3131 361 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 81 81 S 5 9 3202 2884 114 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 80 80 SE 11 17 3132 2821 51 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 79 79 ESE 4 6 3001 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 ESE 2 3 2822 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 76 76 SE 2 3 2759 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 75 75 SSE 4 6 2696 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 74 74 SSE 3 5 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 72 72 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 72 72 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 73 73 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 S 2 3 2696 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 78 79 SSW 2 3 3001 2770 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 82 84 SW 3 5 3412 3200 430 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 86 90 WSW 3 5 4075 3619 849 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 90 96 WSW 3 5 9265 6478 3708 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 94 101 W 4 6 14130 14130 11360 White 28
1 PM Sat 96 103 W 5 9 14538 14538 11768 White 30
2 PM Sat 97 103 W 6 10 14538 14538 11768 White 30
3 PM Sat 97 101 W 8 12 14130 14130 11360 White 28
4 PM Sat 96 98 W 9 13 13516 8410 5640 White 25
5 PM Sat 94 94 W 9 13 7787 4264 1494 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 92 92 W 9 13 5218 3866 1096 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 89 89 W 9 13 3874 3549 779 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 86 86 WSW 8 12 3551 3340 570 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 84 84 SW 6 10 3412 3200 430 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 83 83 SW 5 9 3342 3131 361 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 81 81 SSW 4 6 3202 2884 114 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 S 4 6 3132 2821 51 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 78 78 S 3 5 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 76 76 SSE 2 3 2759 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 75 75 SSE 2 3 2696 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 74 74 SSE 2 3 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 73 73 SSE 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 S 2 3 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 75 75 S 2 3 2696 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 78 79 S 2 3 3001 2770 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 83 85 S 2 3 3481 3270 500 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 88 92 S 2 3 5218 3866 1096 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 92 98 S 3 5 13516 8410 5640 White 25
12 Noon Sun 96 103 S 4 6 14538 14538 11768 White 30
1 PM Sun 98 104 SSW 5 9 14740 14740 11970 White 31
2 PM Sun 100 105 SW 8 12 14944 14944 12174 White 32
3 PM Sun 100 104 WSW 9 13 14740 14740 11970 White 31
4 PM Sun 99 101 W 10 16 14130 14130 11360 White 28
5 PM Sun 97 97 W 11 17 9942 7628 4858 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 94 94 W 11 17 7787 4264 1494 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 91 91 WSW 11 17 4275 3689 919 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 88 88 SW 10 16 3691 3479 709 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 86 86 SSW 9 13 3551 3340 570 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 84 84 SSW 8 12 3412 3200 430 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 82 82 S 5 9 3272 2999 229 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 S 4 6 3132 2821 51 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 78 78 SSE 3 5 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 77 77 SE 3 5 2822 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 74 74 SE 3 5 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 72 72 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 S 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 S 4 6 2822 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 81 83 SSW 5 9 3342 3131 361 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 87 91 SW 6 10 4275 3689 919 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 92 98 SW 8 12 13516 8410 5640 White 25
12 Noon Mon 95 102 SW 9 13 14334 14334 11564 White 29
1 PM Mon 97 104 WSW 10 16 14740 14740 11970 White 31
2 PM Mon 98 104 WSW 12 19 14740 14740 11970 White 31
3 PM Mon 98 102 WSW 13 20 14334 14334 11564 White 29
4 PM Mon 97 99 WSW 14 23 13722 9118 6348 White 26
5 PM Mon 95 96 W 14 23 9265 6478 3708 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 92 92 WSW 14 23 5218 3866 1096 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 88 88 SW 13 20 3691 3479 709 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 85 85 SW 12 19 3481 3270 500 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 82 82 SSW 10 16 3272 2999 229 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 80 80 S 9 13 3132 2821 51 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 78 78 S 6 10 2885 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 SSE 5 9 2759 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 74 74 SE 3 5 2633 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 72 72 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 SE 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 SE 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 S 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 S 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 79 SSW 3 5 3001 2770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 82 86 SW 3 5 3551 3340 570 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 87 93 WSW 4 6 6639 4065 1295 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 91 98 WSW 5 9 13516 8410 5640 White 25
1 PM Tue 94 101 W 6 10 14130 14130 11360 White 28
2 PM Tue 95 101 W 8 12 14130 14130 11360 White 28
3 PM Tue 95 99 W 9 13 13722 9118 6348 White 26
4 PM Tue 94 96 WNW 10 16 9265 6478 3708 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 92 93 WNW 10 16 6639 4065 1295 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 90 90 WNW 10 16 4075 3619 849 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 87 87 W 10 16 3621 3409 639 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 84 84 WSW 9 13 3412 3200 430 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 8 12 3202 2884 114 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 78 78 SSW 6 10 2885 2770 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com