Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 60 60 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 61 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 69 SE 6 3153 2822 52 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 73 77 SE 6 5217 4262 1492 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 80 86 S 6 8376 7326 4556 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 84 92 SW 6 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 87 95 W 6 10586 9911 7141 Blue 31
1 PM Sun 90 98 W 7 11922 10529 7759 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 92 99 W 8 12481 10741 7971 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 93 98 W 9 11922 10529 7759 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 94 97 W 9 11340 10317 7547 Blue 33
5 PM Sun 94 95 W 10 10586 9911 7141 Blue 31
6 PM Sun 92 92 W 12 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 91 91 W 12 9761 8916 6146 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 88 88 W 12 8980 7993 5223 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 85 85 NW 10 8054 7036 4266 Blue 21
10 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 7073 6111 3341 Blue 18
11 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 6175 5023 2253 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 8 5038 3589 819 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 73 73 SW 8 3593 3260 490 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 71 71 S 7 3373 3041 271 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 69 69 S 6 3153 2822 52 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 67 67 S 6 2934 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 63 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 71 S 6 3373 3041 271 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 76 80 SE 6 6578 5201 2431 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 83 89 S 6 9278 8318 5548 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 87 94 SW 5 10372 9713 6943 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 91 99 W 5 12481 10741 7971 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 93 101 W 6 13541 11744 8974 Blue 37
2 PM Mon 95 101 W 7 13541 11744 8974 Blue 37
3 PM Mon 97 102 W 9 14047 12299 9529 Blue 38
4 PM Mon 97 100 W 9 13020 11168 8398 Blue 36
5 PM Mon 97 98 NW 10 11922 10529 7759 Blue 34
6 PM Mon 96 96 NW 10 10799 10108 7338 Blue 32
7 PM Mon 95 95 NW 10 10586 9911 7141 Blue 31
8 PM Mon 92 92 NW 10 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
9 PM Mon 89 89 NW 9 9278 8318 5548 Blue 25
10 PM Mon 85 85 NW 8 8054 7036 4266 Blue 21
11 PM Mon 82 82 W 8 7073 6111 3341 Blue 18
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 W 7 6578 5201 2431 Blue 16
1 AM Tue 77 77 SW 6 5217 4262 1492 Blue 13
2 AM Tue 75 75 S 6 4768 3480 710 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 73 73 S 6 3593 3260 490 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 70 70 S 6 3263 2932 162 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 68 68 S 6 3044 2770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 66 66 S 6 2824 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 66 66 S 6 2824 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 73 75 S 6 4768 3480 710 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 80 84 SW 6 7719 6791 4021 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 87 93 W 6 10158 9506 6736 Blue 29
11 AM Tue 92 99 W 6 12481 10741 7971 Blue 35
12 Noon Tue 95 102 W 6 14047 12299 9529 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 97 104 W 7 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
2 PM Tue 99 105 W 7 15511 13854 11084 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 101 106 W 8 16796 14342 11572 Blue 42
4 PM Tue 102 105 NW 9 15511 13854 11084 Blue 41
5 PM Tue 101 102 NW 9 14047 12299 9529 Blue 38
6 PM Tue 100 100 NW 10 13020 11168 8398 Blue 36
7 PM Tue 99 99 NW 10 12481 10741 7971 Blue 35
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 10 10799 10108 7338 Blue 32
9 PM Tue 92 92 W 9 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
10 PM Tue 89 89 W 9 9278 8318 5548 Blue 25
11 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 8376 7326 4556 Blue 22
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 SW 8 7380 6545 3775 Blue 19
1 AM Wed 80 80 SW 8 6578 5201 2431 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 78 78 SW 8 5631 4744 1974 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 76 76 S 8 5038 3589 819 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 74 74 S 8 4311 3370 600 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 71 71 S 8 3373 3041 271 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 69 69 S 8 3153 2822 52 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 69 70 S 8 3263 2932 162 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 75 77 S 8 5217 4262 1492 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 82 86 S 8 8376 7326 4556 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 88 94 S 8 10372 9713 6943 Blue 30
11 AM Wed 92 100 S 8 13020 11168 8398 Blue 36
12 Noon Wed 95 104 S 8 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
1 PM Wed 97 105 S 9 15511 13854 11084 Blue 41
2 PM Wed 99 106 S 10 16796 14342 11572 Blue 42
3 PM Wed 100 105 SW 12 15511 13854 11084 Blue 41
4 PM Wed 101 104 SW 12 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
5 PM Wed 101 102 SW 13 14047 12299 9529 Blue 38
6 PM Wed 100 100 SW 13 13020 11168 8398 Blue 36
7 PM Wed 98 98 SW 13 11922 10529 7759 Blue 34
8 PM Wed 95 95 SW 12 10586 9911 7141 Blue 31
9 PM Wed 92 92 SW 12 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
10 PM Wed 88 88 S 10 8980 7993 5223 Blue 24
11 PM Wed 85 85 S 9 8054 7036 4266 Blue 21
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 S 8 7073 6111 3341 Blue 18
1 AM Thu 79 79 S 8 6175 5023 2253 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 76 76 S 8 5038 3589 819 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 74 74 S 8 4311 3370 600 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 72 72 S 9 3483 3151 381 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 69 69 S 9 3153 2822 52 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 67 67 S 9 2934 2770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 66 67 S 9 2934 2770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 73 75 S 9 4768 3480 710 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 80 84 S 9 7719 6791 4021 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 86 92 S 9 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 91 98 S 10 11922 10529 7759 Blue 34
12 Noon Thu 94 102 S 10 14047 12299 9529 Blue 38
1 PM Thu 96 104 S 12 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
2 PM Thu 98 104 SW 13 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
3 PM Thu 100 105 SW 14 15511 13854 11084 Blue 41
4 PM Thu 100 103 SW 15 14537 12834 10064 Blue 39
5 PM Thu 100 101 SW 15 13541 11744 8974 Blue 37
6 PM Thu 99 99 SW 16 12481 10741 7971 Blue 35
7 PM Thu 97 97 SW 15 11340 10317 7547 Blue 33
8 PM Thu 94 94 SW 14 10372 9713 6943 Blue 30
9 PM Thu 90 90 SW 12 9561 8618 5848 Blue 26
10 PM Thu 87 87 SW 10 8679 7661 4891 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 84 84 SW 9 7719 6791 4021 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 S 8 6826 5575 2805 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 78 78 S 7 5631 4744 1974 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 75 75 S 8 4768 3480 710 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 73 73 S 8 3593 3260 490 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 70 70 S 9 3263 2932 162 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 68 68 S 9 3044 2770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 66 66 S 9 2824 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 65 65 S 9 2653 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 72 74 S 9 4311 3370 600 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 79 83 S 9 7380 6545 3775 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 86 92 SW 9 9960 9212 6442 Blue 28
11 AM Fri 90 97 SW 8 11340 10317 7547 Blue 33
12 Noon Fri 93 101 SW 8 13541 11744 8974 Blue 37
1 PM Fri 96 104 SW 9 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
2 PM Fri 98 105 SW 9 15511 13854 11084 Blue 41
3 PM Fri 99 104 W 10 15015 13352 10582 Blue 40
4 PM Fri 100 103 W 12 14537 12834 10064 Blue 39
5 PM Fri 100 101 W 12 13541 11744 8974 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 98 98 W 12 11922 10529 7759 Blue 34
7 PM Fri 97 97 W 12 11340 10317 7547 Blue 33
8 PM Fri 94 94 W 10 10372 9713 6943 Blue 30
9 PM Fri 90 90 W 9 9561 8618 5848 Blue 26
10 PM Fri 87 87 W 8 8679 7661 4891 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 84 84 SW 7 7719 6791 4021 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 SW 6 6826 5575 2805 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 78 78 SW 6 5631 4744 1974 Blue 14
2 AM Sat 75 75 S 6 4768 3480 710 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 73 73 S 6 3593 3260 490 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 70 70 SE 6 3263 2932 162 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 68 68 E 7 3044 2770 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com