Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 73 S 7 4704 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 75 78 S 8 8135 6611 3841 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 78 83 S 9 10351 9344 6574 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 81 87 SW 10 11206 10499 7729 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 84 90 SW 12 12200 11163 8393 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 85 90 SW 14 12200 11163 8393 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 86 89 SW 15 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 86 88 SW 16 11453 10864 8094 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 86 86 W 16 11056 10299 7529 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 15 10351 9344 6574 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 14 9430 7425 4655 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 12 7493 5533 2763 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 5633 3575 805 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 4159 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 68 68 NW 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 NW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 W 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 59 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 74 S 5 5633 3575 805 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 75 81 W 5 9810 7967 5197 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 79 85 W 5 10906 10098 7328 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 83 89 W 6 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 86 91 NW 7 12571 11341 8571 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 87 91 NW 8 12571 11341 8571 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 87 89 NW 9 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 87 87 NW 10 11206 10499 7729 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 10 10620 9719 6949 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 81 81 NW 10 9810 7967 5197 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 77 77 NW 10 7493 5533 2763 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 75 75 NW 9 6665 4129 1359 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 72 72 NW 8 4159 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 68 68 NW 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 NW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 59 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 65 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 73 SE 3 4704 2770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 75 81 SW 3 9810 7967 5197 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 79 85 W 3 10906 10098 7328 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 83 89 W 5 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 85 90 W 7 12200 11163 8393 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 87 91 W 8 12571 11341 8571 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 87 89 W 9 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 87 87 NW 9 11206 10499 7729 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 84 84 NW 9 10620 9719 6949 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 81 81 NW 9 9810 7967 5197 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 78 78 N 8 8135 6611 3841 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 76 76 N 7 7066 4666 1896 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 73 73 N 7 4704 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 70 70 N 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 N 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 NE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 NE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 61 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 76 SE 5 7066 4666 1896 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 78 84 SE 3 10620 9719 6949 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 82 88 SE 3 11453 10864 8094 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 86 92 S 3 12937 11712 8942 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 89 94 S 3 13555 12447 9677 White 23
3 PM Tue 90 93 SW 3 13345 12079 9309 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 90 92 SW 3 12937 11712 8942 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 90 90 W 3 12200 11163 8393 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 88 88 W 3 11453 10864 8094 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 3 10620 9719 6949 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 3 9810 7967 5197 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 79 79 SW 2 9043 7002 4232 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 77 77 SW 2 7493 5533 2763 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 73 73 SW 2 4704 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 SW 2 3596 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 78 E 8 8135 6611 3841 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 80 84 E 9 10620 9719 6949 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 84 88 E 10 11453 10864 8094 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 87 91 E 12 12571 11341 8571 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 90 94 E 12 13555 12447 9677 White 23
3 PM Wed 91 93 E 13 13345 12079 9309 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 91 92 E 14 12937 11712 8942 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 91 91 E 14 12571 11341 8571 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 89 89 E 14 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 86 86 E 14 11056 10299 7529 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 83 83 E 14 10351 9344 6574 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 81 81 E 13 9810 7967 5197 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 79 79 E 13 9043 7002 4232 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 76 76 E 12 7066 4666 1896 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 E 12 5633 3575 805 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 72 72 E 12 4159 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 70 70 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 73 E 10 4704 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 77 80 E 10 9430 7425 4655 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 81 85 E 10 10906 10098 7328 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 85 90 E 10 12200 11163 8393 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 88 93 E 9 13345 12079 9309 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 90 94 E 9 13555 12447 9677 White 23
3 PM Thu 91 94 E 8 13555 12447 9677 White 23
4 PM Thu 91 92 E 7 12937 11712 8942 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 91 91 E 7 12571 11341 8571 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 89 89 E 7 11827 11014 8244 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 86 86 E 8 11056 10299 7529 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 83 83 E 9 10351 9344 6574 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 82 82 E 10 10149 8904 6134 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 80 80 E 12 9430 7425 4655 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 77 77 E 13 7493 5533 2763 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 E 14 5633 3575 805 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 72 72 E 14 4159 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 71 71 E 14 3596 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 E 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 E 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 E 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com