Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SE 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 57 57 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 53 53 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 N 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 52 53 SSE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 56 59 ESE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 63 ENE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 58 63 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 68 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 68 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 67 NW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 64 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 65 65 NW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 55 55 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 52 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 54 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 54 54 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 54 54 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 56 SSE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 59 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 63 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 67 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 69 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 70 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 70 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 67 WNW 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 63 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 57 57 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 56 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 54 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 58 61 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 63 W 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 59 64 W 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 66 W 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 66 W 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 59 62 W 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 62 W 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 SW 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com