Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 52 52 SE 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SE 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 SE 14 2525 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 62 63 SE 14 2863 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 68 70 E 13 3713 3240 470 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 73 76 E 13 5647 4711 1941 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 77 80 E 10 9554 5790 3020 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 79 82 E 9 9726 7011 4241 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 80 82 E 8 9726 7011 4241 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 80 81 E 8 9640 6296 3526 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 79 79 NE 7 7116 5631 2861 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 77 77 N 7 5808 5311 2541 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 71 71 NE 6 3839 3303 533 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 68 68 NE 5 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 65 65 E 5 3086 2812 42 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 62 62 E 6 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 59 59 SE 7 2700 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 56 56 SE 8 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SE 8 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 54 54 SE 8 2525 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 53 53 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SE 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 SE 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SE 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 SE 7 2730 2770 0 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 67 68 SE 5 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 73 75 SE 3 5487 3916 1146 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 77 79 S 3 7116 5631 2861 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 79 81 W 3 9640 6296 3526 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 80 82 NW 5 9726 7011 4241 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 80 81 NW 5 9640 6296 3526 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 79 79 NW 6 7116 5631 2861 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 77 77 NW 7 5808 5311 2541 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 71 71 NW 7 3839 3303 533 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 6 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 65 65 NW 5 3086 2812 42 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 60 60 S 5 2730 2770 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 57 57 S 5 2640 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 S 5 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 2590 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 2525 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 52 52 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 62 N 2 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 69 70 N 1 3713 3240 470 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 76 78 NW 1 6390 5471 2701 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 80 82 NW 1 9726 7011 4241 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 82 84 NW 2 9909 9620 6850 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 83 85 NW 3 10227 9705 6935 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 83 84 NW 5 9909 9620 6850 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 82 82 NW 6 9726 7011 4241 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 80 80 NW 8 9554 5790 3020 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 74 74 N 8 5326 3836 1066 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 72 72 N 9 3919 3366 596 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 68 68 N 9 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 65 65 N 10 3086 2812 42 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 62 62 NE 10 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 59 59 NE 10 2700 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 E 10 2670 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 10 2640 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 12 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 55 55 E 12 2590 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 53 53 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 E 10 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 64 64 E 9 2915 2770 0 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 72 73 E 9 4780 3699 929 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 78 80 E 9 9554 5790 3020 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 83 86 E 9 10516 9791 7021 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 85 87 E 9 10607 9883 7113 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 86 88 E 10 10733 10089 7319 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 86 87 E 10 10607 9883 7113 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 85 85 E 10 10227 9705 6935 Blue 32
5 PM Wed 83 83 E 10 9812 9534 6764 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 77 77 E 9 5808 5311 2541 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 74 74 E 9 5326 3836 1066 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 70 70 E 8 3713 3240 470 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 68 68 E 7 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 65 65 E 6 3086 2812 42 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 6 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 E 6 2761 2770 0 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 60 60 E 7 2730 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 7 2670 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 8 2640 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 56 56 E 9 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 55 55 E 9 2590 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 54 54 E 9 2525 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 54 54 E 9 2525 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 58 58 E 8 2670 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 67 68 E 8 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 74 76 E 7 5647 4711 1941 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 81 84 E 7 9909 9620 6850 Blue 31
12 Noon Thu 86 89 E 7 10971 10492 7722 Blue 36
1 PM Thu 88 91 E 7 11636 10673 7903 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 89 91 E 8 11636 10673 7903 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 89 90 E 8 11251 10582 7812 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 88 88 NE 8 10733 10089 7319 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 86 86 NE 9 10516 9791 7021 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 80 80 NE 8 9554 5790 3020 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 76 76 E 7 5647 4711 1941 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 72 72 E 7 3919 3366 596 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 70 70 E 6 3713 3240 470 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 66 66 E 5 3178 2863 93 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 5 2863 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 E 5 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 2761 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 60 60 E 6 2730 2770 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 7 2670 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 2640 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 56 56 E 8 2615 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 8 2590 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 55 55 E 8 2590 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 58 58 E 7 2670 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 67 68 SE 7 3305 3080 310 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 74 76 SE 6 5647 4711 1941 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 80 83 SE 6 9812 9534 6764 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 84 87 E 6 10607 9883 7113 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 86 89 E 6 10971 10492 7722 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 87 89 NE 7 10971 10492 7722 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 88 89 N 7 10971 10492 7722 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 87 87 N 7 10607 9883 7113 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 84 84 NW 8 9909 9620 6850 Blue 31
6 PM Fri 79 79 N 8 7116 5631 2861 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 76 76 N 8 5647 4711 1941 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 72 72 N 8 3919 3366 596 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 69 69 NE 8 3368 3177 407 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 66 66 NE 8 3178 2863 93 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 63 63 E 8 2863 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 E 8 2812 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 61 61 E 8 2761 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 60 60 SE 8 2730 2770 0 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 58 58 SE 8 2670 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 57 57 SE 8 2640 2770 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com