Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 SE 5 2871 2770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 70 73 SE 5 3560 3087 317 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 76 79 SE 5 4914 4358 1588 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 81 85 SE 5 9034 6258 3488 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 84 88 S 5 11371 8677 5907 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 86 89 S 6 11940 9611 6841 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 88 90 SW 6 12059 10312 7542 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 89 90 SW 6 12059 10312 7542 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 88 88 W 7 11371 8677 5907 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 87 87 W 7 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 7 7228 5793 3023 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 80 80 W 7 5362 4518 1748 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 77 77 W 7 4522 3709 939 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 6 3716 3243 473 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 3247 3016 246 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SW 6 3016 2928 158 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 6 2958 2870 100 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 64 64 S 6 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 63 63 S 5 2871 2770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 61 61 S 5 2754 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 2620 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 58 58 SE 5 2542 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 S 5 2929 2820 50 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 71 72 S 5 3403 3045 275 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 76 78 S 5 4612 3865 1095 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 80 82 S 5 6315 4890 2120 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 83 85 S 6 9034 6258 3488 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 85 87 SW 7 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 87 88 SW 8 11371 8677 5907 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 87 87 W 9 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 87 87 W 10 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 9034 6258 3488 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 10 6776 5317 2547 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 9 4914 4358 1588 Blue 22
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 3872 3398 628 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 72 72 SW 8 3403 3045 275 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 7 3090 2987 217 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SW 6 2987 2899 129 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 2821 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 2754 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 2620 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 57 57 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 56 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 SW 3 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 68 72 SW 5 3403 3045 275 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 74 79 W 5 4914 4358 1588 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 78 84 W 6 7228 5793 3023 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 81 87 W 7 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 83 88 W 8 11371 8677 5907 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 84 87 W 9 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 85 87 W 10 10540 7159 4389 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 85 85 W 12 9034 6258 3488 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 83 83 W 12 6776 5317 2547 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 12 5362 4518 1748 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 10 4399 3554 784 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 9 3403 3045 275 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 3045 2957 187 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 2987 2899 129 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 W 7 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 61 61 SW 6 2754 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 2620 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 60 W 5 2687 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 65 69 W 6 3045 2957 187 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 70 75 W 6 3872 3398 628 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 74 80 W 7 5362 4518 1748 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 77 83 W 7 6776 5317 2547 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 79 84 W 8 7228 5793 3023 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 80 83 W 9 6776 5317 2547 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 81 83 NW 10 6776 5317 2547 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 81 81 NW 12 5844 4591 1821 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 79 79 NW 12 4914 4358 1588 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 4522 3709 939 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 9 3560 3087 317 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 8 3090 2987 217 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 7 2987 2899 129 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 64 64 S 6 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 S 5 2754 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 2620 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 57 57 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 SE 3 2542 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 64 66 SE 3 2958 2870 100 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 69 72 SE 3 3403 3045 275 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 74 78 SE 3 4612 3865 1095 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 77 81 S 5 5844 4591 1821 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 78 82 S 6 6315 4890 2120 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 80 83 SW 8 6776 5317 2547 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 81 82 W 9 6315 4890 2120 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 80 80 W 10 5362 4518 1748 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 79 79 NW 12 4914 4358 1588 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 76 76 NW 12 4399 3554 784 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 73 73 N 10 3560 3087 317 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 69 69 N 9 3045 2957 187 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 66 66 NE 8 2958 2870 100 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 64 64 E 7 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 E 6 2754 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 59 59 E 6 2620 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 57 57 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 SE 7 2542 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 63 67 SE 6 2987 2899 129 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 68 73 SE 7 3560 3087 317 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 72 78 SE 7 4612 3865 1095 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 75 81 S 8 5844 4591 1821 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 77 82 S 9 6315 4890 2120 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 78 82 SW 10 6315 4890 2120 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 79 81 W 12 5844 4591 1821 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 78 78 W 13 4612 3865 1095 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 77 77 NW 14 4522 3709 939 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 74 74 NW 13 3716 3243 473 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 70 70 NW 13 3090 2987 217 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 2987 2899 129 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 64 64 NW 9 2900 2770 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 61 61 NW 8 2754 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NW 7 2542 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com