Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 76 76 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 76 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 84 S 6 2898 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 87 90 S 6 5221 3070 300 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 92 96 W 6 8155 6133 3363 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 96 101 NW 7 12011 9299 6529 White 19
1 PM Tue 98 103 NW 8 12421 11153 8383 White 21
2 PM Tue 100 104 NW 10 12625 12625 9855 White 22
3 PM Tue 101 103 NW 12 12421 11153 8383 White 21
4 PM Tue 102 103 NW 13 12421 11153 8383 White 21
5 PM Tue 101 101 NW 14 12011 9299 6529 White 19
6 PM Tue 100 100 NW 14 11359 8648 5878 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 99 99 NW 13 10344 8039 5269 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 10 8155 6133 3363 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 93 93 W 9 6169 5186 2416 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 91 91 W 8 5539 3124 354 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 88 88 SW 8 3125 2961 191 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 86 86 SW 8 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 84 84 SW 8 2898 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 82 82 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 78 78 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 77 77 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 76 76 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 75 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 78 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 80 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 82 W 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 84 84 W 8 2898 2770 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 85 85 W 9 2962 2770 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 86 86 W 10 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 86 86 NW 10 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 87 87 W 10 3071 2893 123 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 86 86 W 9 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 86 86 W 8 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 85 85 SW 8 2962 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 83 83 S 8 2546 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 81 81 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 80 80 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 78 78 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 NW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 74 N 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 79 N 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 83 NW 6 2546 2770 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 84 87 NW 6 3071 2893 123 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 86 89 NW 7 3393 3015 245 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 87 89 NW 7 3393 3015 245 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 88 90 W 8 5221 3070 300 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 88 89 W 8 3393 3015 245 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 88 88 W 8 3125 2961 191 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 8 3071 2893 123 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 7 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 84 84 W 7 2898 2770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 82 82 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 80 80 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 79 79 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 76 76 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 76 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 82 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 83 87 NW 6 3071 2893 123 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 86 91 NW 6 5539 3124 354 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 88 93 NW 6 6169 5186 2416 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 89 93 NW 6 6169 5186 2416 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 90 93 NW 7 6169 5186 2416 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 90 91 NW 7 5539 3124 354 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 90 90 NW 7 5221 3070 300 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 90 90 NW 7 5221 3070 300 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 88 88 NW 7 3125 2961 191 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 86 86 W 7 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 84 84 W 6 2898 2770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 82 82 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 80 80 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 76 76 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 74 74 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 72 72 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 72 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 79 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 82 85 NE 6 2962 2770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 86 91 NE 7 5539 3124 354 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 89 94 NE 7 6783 5509 2739 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 91 96 NE 7 8155 6133 3363 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 93 97 NE 7 8757 6687 3917 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 94 97 N 6 8757 6687 3917 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 94 96 N 6 8155 6133 3363 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 94 94 N 5 6783 5509 2739 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 93 93 N 5 6169 5186 2416 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 92 92 N 5 5855 3384 614 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 89 89 NE 5 3393 3015 245 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 87 87 E 5 3071 2893 123 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 85 85 SE 6 2962 2770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 83 83 SE 6 2546 2770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 79 79 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 77 77 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 76 76 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 74 74 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 80 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 83 86 SE 7 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 87 92 SE 7 5855 3384 614 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 91 97 SE 7 8757 6687 3917 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 93 98 SE 7 9389 7380 4610 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 95 100 S 6 11359 8648 5878 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 96 99 S 6 10344 8039 5269 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 96 98 SW 5 9389 7380 4610 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 96 96 SW 5 8155 6133 3363 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 95 95 W 5 7487 5822 3052 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 94 94 W 6 6783 5509 2739 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 91 91 SW 6 5539 3124 354 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 89 89 SW 7 3393 3015 245 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 86 86 SW 8 3017 2770 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 84 84 SW 9 2898 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 SW 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 SW 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 SW 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 76 76 SW 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 75 75 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com