Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 43 43 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 43 43 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 54 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 62 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 65 68 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 68 71 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 69 71 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 71 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 69 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 68 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 56 56 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 49 49 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 48 48 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 46 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 60 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 66 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 66 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 66 67 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 65 65 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 63 63 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 45 45 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 42 42 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 41 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 39 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 45 45 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 51 52 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 57 59 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 62 65 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 68 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 68 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 68 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 66 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 65 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 54 54 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 51 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 48 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 55 56 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 62 63 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 69 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 73 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 73 74 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 75 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 72 72 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 70 70 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 65 65 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 61 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 50 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 45 45 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 45 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 48 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 54 55 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 62 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 66 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 69 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 69 71 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 70 71 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 40 40 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 39 39 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 38 38 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 37 37 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 36 36 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 36 36 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 36 36 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 41 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 47 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 52 54 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 56 59 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 61 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 60 62 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 61 62 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 58 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 45 45 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 38 38 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 36 36 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com