Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 58 58 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 59 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 65 S 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 70 S 13 2673 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 71 77 S 14 7148 3818 1048 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 74 82 S 17 8704 8219 5449 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 77 86 SW 18 9732 8912 6142 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 79 88 SW 18 12299 9491 6721 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 81 89 SW 18 12663 9691 6921 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 83 89 SW 18 12663 9691 6921 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 83 86 SW 17 9732 8912 6142 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 84 85 SW 18 9560 8643 5873 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 17 8948 8302 5532 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 16 8403 7651 4881 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 15 7752 4073 1303 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 4087 3073 303 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 71 71 SW 9 2718 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 68 68 SW 7 2584 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 SW 7 2495 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 64 64 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 56 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 62 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 67 SW 7 2540 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 67 71 W 8 2718 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 69 76 W 10 5005 3563 793 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 72 80 W 12 8317 7001 4231 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 74 82 W 13 8704 8219 5449 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 76 83 W 14 8948 8302 5532 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 77 82 W 15 8704 8219 5449 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 78 81 W 15 8403 7651 4881 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 78 79 W 15 8235 4749 1979 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 77 77 W 15 7148 3818 1048 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 13 4087 3073 303 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 73 73 NW 12 3572 2770 0 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 70 70 NW 9 2673 2770 0 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 8 2495 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 NW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 NW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 52 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 59 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 64 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 72 NE 3 3093 2770 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 70 77 NW 3 7148 3818 1048 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 74 82 W 5 8704 8219 5449 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 77 84 W 5 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 79 84 W 6 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 81 85 W 7 9560 8643 5873 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 82 84 W 8 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 82 83 W 8 8948 8302 5532 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 82 82 NW 9 8704 8219 5449 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 80 80 NW 8 8317 7001 4231 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 77 77 NW 8 7148 3818 1048 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 74 74 NW 7 3830 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 71 71 NW 6 2718 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 68 68 NW 5 2584 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NW 5 2495 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 NE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 57 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 64 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 70 N 3 2673 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 72 79 NW 3 8235 4749 1979 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 76 84 W 3 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 80 89 W 3 12663 9691 6921 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 83 92 W 3 14998 12540 9770 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 85 93 W 3 15464 12896 10126 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 88 94 W 5 16522 13246 10476 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 88 91 W 5 13375 12180 9410 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 89 90 W 5 13021 9862 7092 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 88 88 NW 6 12299 9491 6721 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 86 86 NW 6 9732 8912 6142 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 83 83 NW 6 8948 8302 5532 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 79 79 W 5 8235 4749 1979 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 5 5005 3563 793 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 5 3572 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 5 2718 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 69 69 W 5 2629 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 5 2540 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 65 65 SW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 61 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 68 SE 5 2584 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 71 75 S 5 4087 3073 303 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 77 84 S 5 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 81 89 SW 5 12663 9691 6921 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 85 94 SW 5 16522 13246 10476 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 88 97 SW 5 17310 16025 13255 White 32
2 PM Thu 90 98 SW 6 17502 16642 13872 White 33
3 PM Thu 93 99 SW 6 17694 16876 14106 White 34
4 PM Thu 94 97 SW 7 17310 16025 13255 White 32
5 PM Thu 94 95 W 7 16759 14157 11387 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 93 93 W 7 15464 12896 10126 Blue 28
7 PM Thu 91 91 W 7 13375 12180 9410 Blue 26
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 7 12299 9491 6721 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 84 84 W 7 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 80 80 W 6 8317 7001 4231 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 77 77 W 6 7148 3818 1048 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 W 6 3830 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 6 3093 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 70 70 SW 5 2673 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 68 68 S 5 2584 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 66 66 S 5 2495 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 64 64 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 63 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 70 S 5 2673 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 72 76 S 5 5005 3563 793 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 78 85 S 5 9560 8643 5873 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 82 90 SW 6 13021 9862 7092 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 86 95 SW 6 16759 14157 11387 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 88 97 SW 6 17310 16025 13255 White 32
2 PM Fri 91 99 SW 7 17694 16876 14106 White 34
3 PM Fri 93 99 SW 7 17694 16876 14106 White 34
4 PM Fri 94 97 SW 8 17310 16025 13255 White 32
5 PM Fri 94 95 SW 8 16759 14157 11387 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 93 93 W 9 15464 12896 10126 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 91 91 W 8 13375 12180 9410 Blue 26
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 8 12299 9491 6721 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 84 84 W 7 9197 8384 5614 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 81 81 W 7 8403 7651 4881 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 78 78 W 6 7752 4073 1303 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 W 6 4087 3073 303 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 73 73 SW 6 3572 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 71 71 SW 6 2718 2770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 69 69 S 6 2629 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 2540 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 65 65 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com