Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 65 SE 8 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 73 73 SE 7 3620 2834 64 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 78 78 SE 6 4461 3814 1044 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 79 79 S 7 4830 3912 1142 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 76 76 S 7 3917 3617 847 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 75 75 SE 8 3818 3518 748 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 74 74 SE 9 3719 3183 413 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 74 74 S 7 3719 3183 413 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 73 73 S 6 3620 2834 64 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 72 72 W 7 3522 2788 18 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 70 70 S 13 2839 2770 0 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 68 68 S 10 2757 2770 0 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 67 67 SE 14 2735 2770 0 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 65 65 S 12 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 64 64 S 12 2669 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 S 12 2669 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 63 63 S 14 2647 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 62 62 S 14 2625 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 61 61 S 13 2603 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 10 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 60 60 S 13 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 59 59 S 14 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SE 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 S 17 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 22 2625 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 64 65 S 21 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 66 66 S 23 2713 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 68 S 25 2757 2770 0 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 68 68 S 23 2757 2770 0 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 68 68 S 23 2757 2770 0 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 67 67 S 24 2735 2770 0 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 66 66 S 22 2713 2770 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 64 S 20 2669 2770 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 63 63 S 20 2647 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 61 61 S 18 2603 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 60 60 S 17 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 58 58 S 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 S 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 W 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 S 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 55 S 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 58 S 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 59 S 12 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 60 S 14 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 60 60 SW 12 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 59 S 8 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 E 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 E 3 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 61 E 3 2603 2770 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 61 63 NE 3 2647 2770 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 61 63 NE 3 2647 2770 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 61 62 N 5 2625 2770 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 61 61 N 5 2603 2770 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 59 59 N 5 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 N 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 64 E 7 2669 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 66 68 E 7 2757 2770 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 68 70 E 7 2839 2770 0 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 68 70 E 7 2839 2770 0 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 68 69 NE 6 2788 2770 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 67 67 NE 6 2735 2770 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 66 66 NE 6 2713 2770 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 63 63 NE 6 2647 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 60 60 NE 6 2569 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 57 57 NE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 SE 3 2603 2770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 65 66 SE 3 2713 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 69 71 E 3 3192 2770 0 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 70 71 E 3 3192 2770 0 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 71 72 NE 3 3522 2788 18 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 70 70 N 3 2839 2770 0 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 70 70 N 3 2839 2770 0 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 68 68 NW 3 2757 2770 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 3 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 3 2625 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com