Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 39 39 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 SE 2 2656 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 56 58 SE 2 3141 2901 131 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 62 64 W 2 4034 3724 954 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 67 70 NW 2 5876 4915 2145 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 70 73 NW 5 6324 5864 3094 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 71 73 NW 7 6324 5864 3094 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 71 72 NW 8 6159 5759 2989 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 69 69 NW 8 5770 4601 1831 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 4624 3928 1158 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 62 62 NW 6 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 58 58 NW 5 3141 2901 131 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 3 2866 2770 0 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 52 52 S 3 2796 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 49 49 S 5 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 47 47 S 5 2618 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 S 3 2541 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 43 43 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 2726 2770 0 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 57 59 SE 6 3238 2946 176 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 62 64 E 6 4034 3724 954 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 66 69 E 5 5770 4601 1831 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 69 72 N 5 6159 5759 2989 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 69 71 N 3 5995 5593 2823 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 69 70 N 3 5876 4915 2145 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 5664 4285 1515 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 65 65 NW 6 4305 3826 1056 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 6 3729 3139 369 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 56 56 NE 5 2947 2831 61 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 52 52 E 5 2796 2770 0 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 46 46 E 7 2579 2770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 2503 2770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 E 14 2726 2770 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 55 57 E 14 3044 2866 96 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 58 61 E 14 3729 3139 369 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 60 62 E 13 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 61 63 E 13 3933 3332 562 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 61 62 E 13 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 60 60 E 12 3335 3042 272 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 58 58 E 12 3141 2901 131 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 55 55 E 10 2901 2796 26 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 52 52 E 9 2796 2770 0 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 49 49 E 8 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 46 46 E 8 2579 2770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 44 44 E 9 2503 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 43 43 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 E 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 E 9 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 54 56 E 9 2947 2831 61 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 58 61 E 9 3729 3139 369 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 60 62 E 8 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 61 63 E 8 3933 3332 562 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 61 62 E 8 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 60 60 E 7 3335 3042 272 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 59 59 E 7 3238 2946 176 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 56 56 E 7 2947 2831 61 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 53 53 E 6 2831 2770 0 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 6 2726 2770 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 47 47 E 6 2618 2770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 45 45 E 6 2541 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 43 43 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 E 7 2541 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 52 53 E 8 2831 2770 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 59 61 E 8 3729 3139 369 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 63 65 E 8 4305 3826 1056 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 65 67 E 8 4940 4029 1259 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 66 68 E 8 5664 4285 1515 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 66 67 E 8 4940 4029 1259 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 65 65 E 8 4305 3826 1056 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 62 62 E 8 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 59 59 E 7 3238 2946 176 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 56 56 E 7 2947 2831 61 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 2831 2770 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 2726 2770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 48 48 E 7 2656 2770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 7 2579 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 E 7 2541 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 2503 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 2579 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 53 54 E 8 2866 2770 0 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 8 3729 3139 369 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 8 4624 3928 1158 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 66 68 E 8 5664 4285 1515 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 68 70 E 8 5876 4915 2145 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 68 69 E 8 5770 4601 1831 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 67 67 E 8 4940 4029 1259 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 65 65 E 8 4305 3826 1056 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 62 62 E 7 3831 3236 466 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 3141 2901 131 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 2901 2796 26 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 52 52 E 6 2796 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 49 49 E 7 2691 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 7 2618 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 7 2579 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 2541 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 2503 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 42 42 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com