Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 81 81 S 2 2504 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 80 80 S 1 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 85 86 S 1 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 90 93 NW 2 4266 4002 1232 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 95 99 NW 2 7582 4924 2154 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 98 104 NW 2 10993 8254 5484 White 23
12 Noon Mon 101 108 NW 2 11811 11811 9041 White 27
1 PM Mon 104 110 NW 2 12217 12217 9447 White 29
2 PM Mon 104 110 NW 3 12217 12217 9447 White 29
3 PM Mon 107 111 NW 5 12418 12418 9648 White 30
4 PM Mon 107 110 NW 6 12217 12217 9447 White 29
5 PM Mon 107 108 NW 3 11811 11811 9041 White 27
6 PM Mon 105 105 NW 5 11202 9333 6563 White 24
7 PM Mon 103 103 NW 5 10519 7857 5087 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 101 101 NW 3 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 96 96 W 3 4974 4261 1491 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 94 94 W 2 4357 4088 1318 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 93 93 NW 2 4266 4002 1232 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 91 91 SE 2 4093 3465 695 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 90 90 SE 2 4007 3176 406 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 88 88 S 2 3475 2944 174 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 87 87 S 2 3183 2848 78 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 86 86 S 2 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 84 84 S 2 2849 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 83 83 S 2 2753 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 82 82 S 2 2641 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 87 88 S 2 3475 2944 174 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 92 95 S 2 4642 4175 1405 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 97 101 S 2 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 100 106 W 1 11405 10289 7519 White 25
12 Noon Tue 103 110 W 1 12217 12217 9447 White 29
1 PM Tue 105 111 W 2 12418 12418 9648 White 30
2 PM Tue 106 111 W 3 12418 12418 9648 White 30
3 PM Tue 108 112 W 5 12620 12620 9850 White 31
4 PM Tue 109 111 W 5 12418 12418 9648 White 30
5 PM Tue 108 109 W 5 12014 12014 9244 White 28
6 PM Tue 106 106 SW 5 11405 10289 7519 White 25
7 PM Tue 104 104 SW 5 10993 8254 5484 White 23
8 PM Tue 101 101 SW 3 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 97 97 SW 3 6277 4347 1577 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 94 94 SW 3 4357 4088 1318 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 93 93 SW 3 4266 4002 1232 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 91 91 SW 3 4093 3465 695 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 90 90 SW 3 4007 3176 406 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 88 88 S 5 3475 2944 174 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 86 86 S 5 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 85 85 S 3 2946 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 83 83 S 3 2753 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 82 82 S 2 2641 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 81 81 S 2 2504 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 85 86 S 3 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 89 91 S 3 4093 3465 695 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 93 96 S 3 4974 4261 1491 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 96 100 SW 2 7914 6134 3364 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 98 102 SW 2 9558 7528 4758 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 100 104 W 3 10993 8254 5484 White 23
2 PM Wed 101 104 W 3 10993 8254 5484 White 23
3 PM Wed 103 105 W 5 11202 9333 6563 White 24
4 PM Wed 103 105 W 5 11202 9333 6563 White 24
5 PM Wed 103 104 W 5 10993 8254 5484 White 23
6 PM Wed 101 101 W 5 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 99 99 SW 5 7582 4924 2154 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 97 97 SW 5 6277 4347 1577 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 93 93 SW 5 4266 4002 1232 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 90 90 SW 5 4007 3176 406 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 89 89 S 3 3765 3040 270 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 87 87 S 3 3183 2848 78 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 86 86 S 3 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 85 85 S 2 2946 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 83 83 S 2 2753 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 82 82 S 2 2641 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 81 81 S 2 2504 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 79 79 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 79 79 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 82 82 S 2 2641 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 86 87 S 2 3183 2848 78 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 91 93 SW 2 4266 4002 1232 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 93 96 W 2 4974 4261 1491 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 96 100 W 2 7914 6134 3364 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 97 101 W 3 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 98 101 NW 3 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 100 102 NW 5 9558 7528 4758 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 100 101 NW 5 8472 7196 4426 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 100 100 NW 3 7914 6134 3364 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 98 98 NW 3 7246 4622 1852 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 96 96 W 3 4974 4261 1491 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 94 94 W 2 4357 4088 1318 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 91 91 W 2 4093 3465 695 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 89 89 W 2 3765 3040 270 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 88 88 W 2 3475 2944 174 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 86 86 W 2 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 85 85 W 2 2946 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 84 84 SW 2 2849 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 82 82 S 2 2641 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 81 81 S 2 2504 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 80 80 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 79 79 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 78 78 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 83 84 SW 2 2849 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 87 89 SW 2 3765 3040 270 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 92 95 W 2 4642 4175 1405 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 94 98 W 2 7246 4622 1852 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 97 102 NW 2 9558 7528 4758 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 99 104 NW 3 10993 8254 5484 White 23
2 PM Fri 100 104 NW 5 10993 8254 5484 White 23
3 PM Fri 102 105 NW 6 11202 9333 6563 White 24
4 PM Fri 102 104 NW 6 10993 8254 5484 White 23
5 PM Fri 102 103 NW 6 10519 7857 5087 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 100 100 NW 5 7914 6134 3364 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 98 98 NW 5 7246 4622 1852 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 96 96 NW 3 4974 4261 1491 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 92 92 NW 3 4179 3753 983 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 90 90 W 3 4007 3176 406 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 88 88 W 3 3475 2944 174 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 87 87 SW 3 3183 2848 78 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 86 86 SW 3 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 84 84 SW 2 2849 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 83 83 SW 2 2753 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 82 82 S 2 2641 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 80 80 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 79 79 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 78 78 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 83 84 S 2 2849 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 87 89 S 2 3765 3040 270 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 92 95 SW 2 4642 4175 1405 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 94 98 W 2 7246 4622 1852 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 97 102 W 2 9558 7528 4758 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 99 104 W 3 10993 8254 5484 White 23
2 PM Sat 100 104 W 3 10993 8254 5484 White 23
3 PM Sat 101 104 W 5 10993 8254 5484 White 23
4 PM Sat 102 104 W 6 10993 8254 5484 White 23
5 PM Sat 102 103 W 6 10519 7857 5087 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 100 100 W 6 7914 6134 3364 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 98 98 W 6 7246 4622 1852 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 96 96 W 5 4974 4261 1491 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 92 92 W 5 4179 3753 983 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 90 90 W 5 4007 3176 406 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 88 88 W 3 3475 2944 174 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 87 87 SW 3 3183 2848 78 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 86 86 SW 3 3042 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 84 84 SW 2 2849 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 83 83 SW 2 2753 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 81 81 SW 2 2504 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 80 80 S 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com