Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Wed 72 72 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 79 SE 6 2994 2779 9 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 83 87 SE 6 4508 3383 613 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 88 94 S 5 11106 8413 5643 White 21
12 Noon Wed 92 99 S 5 12130 12130 9360 White 26
1 PM Wed 95 101 SW 6 12537 12537 9767 White 28
2 PM Wed 97 102 SW 7 12740 12740 9970 White 29
3 PM Wed 98 102 W 8 12740 12740 9970 White 29
4 PM Wed 99 101 W 8 12537 12537 9767 White 28
5 PM Wed 97 97 W 8 11721 11721 8951 White 24
6 PM Wed 94 94 W 8 11106 8413 5643 White 21
7 PM Wed 93 93 W 7 10475 6886 4116 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 89 89 W 7 5201 4027 1257 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 87 87 W 6 4508 3383 613 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 84 84 W 5 3384 3251 481 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 5 3296 2993 223 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 SW 5 3164 2850 80 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 79 79 SW 5 2994 2779 9 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 78 78 S 6 2923 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 77 77 SE 6 2851 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 75 75 SE 6 2708 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 74 74 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 74 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 S 7 2994 2779 9 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 82 86 S 7 4050 3339 569 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 87 92 S 7 9380 5181 2411 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 91 97 SW 8 11721 11721 8951 White 24
1 PM Thu 94 100 SW 9 12334 12334 9564 White 27
2 PM Thu 95 100 SW 12 12334 12334 9564 White 27
3 PM Thu 97 101 SW 13 12537 12537 9767 White 28
4 PM Thu 97 99 SW 14 12130 12130 9360 White 26
5 PM Thu 96 96 SW 15 11517 10116 7346 White 23
6 PM Thu 92 92 SW 15 9380 5181 2411 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 91 91 SW 13 8672 4923 2153 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 87 87 SW 10 4508 3383 613 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 85 85 SW 8 3584 3295 525 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 82 82 SW 7 3296 2993 223 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 80 80 S 6 3164 2850 80 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 S 6 2923 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 77 77 S 6 2851 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 76 76 SE 6 2780 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 74 74 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 SE 6 2851 2770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 80 84 S 7 3384 3251 481 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 85 91 S 8 8672 4923 2153 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 89 96 SW 10 11517 10116 7346 White 23
1 PM Fri 92 99 SW 13 12130 12130 9360 White 26
2 PM Fri 94 99 SW 14 12130 12130 9360 White 26
3 PM Fri 95 99 SW 15 12130 12130 9360 White 26
4 PM Fri 96 98 SW 15 11925 11925 9155 White 25
5 PM Fri 94 94 SW 15 11106 8413 5643 White 21
6 PM Fri 91 91 SW 14 8672 4923 2153 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 89 89 W 12 5201 4027 1257 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 86 86 W 8 4050 3339 569 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 6 3340 3160 390 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 80 80 W 5 3164 2850 80 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 78 78 SW 3 2923 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 S 3 2780 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 75 75 S 3 2708 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 74 74 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 S 7 2708 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 79 83 S 7 3340 3160 390 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 84 90 S 8 7144 4479 1709 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 89 95 SW 8 11311 9258 6488 White 22
1 PM Sat 92 98 SW 9 11925 11925 9155 White 25
2 PM Sat 94 99 SW 9 12130 12130 9360 White 26
3 PM Sat 95 99 SW 10 12130 12130 9360 White 26
4 PM Sat 96 98 W 10 11925 11925 9155 White 25
5 PM Sat 94 94 W 10 11106 8413 5643 White 21
6 PM Sat 91 91 W 10 8672 4923 2153 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 90 90 W 9 7144 4479 1709 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 86 86 W 8 4050 3339 569 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 7 3340 3160 390 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 80 80 W 6 3164 2850 80 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 79 79 W 5 2994 2779 9 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 W 3 2851 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 76 76 W 3 2780 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 75 75 SW 3 2708 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 73 73 SW 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 S 5 2780 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 79 82 S 5 3296 2993 223 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 84 88 S 5 4957 3567 797 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 88 93 S 5 10475 6886 4116 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 91 96 S 6 11517 10116 7346 White 23
2 PM Sun 93 97 S 7 11721 11721 8951 White 24
3 PM Sun 94 96 S 8 11517 10116 7346 White 23
4 PM Sun 95 96 S 9 11517 10116 7346 White 23
5 PM Sun 93 93 SE 9 10475 6886 4116 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 91 91 SE 10 8672 4923 2153 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 89 89 SE 10 5201 4027 1257 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 86 86 SE 9 4050 3339 569 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 84 84 SE 9 3384 3251 481 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 81 81 SE 8 3252 2922 152 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 80 80 SE 8 3164 2850 80 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 SE 7 2923 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 77 77 SE 7 2851 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 76 76 SE 7 2780 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 74 74 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 S 8 2708 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 79 81 S 8 3252 2922 152 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 83 86 S 9 4050 3339 569 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 86 89 S 9 5201 4027 1257 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 89 92 S 10 9380 5181 2411 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 90 93 S 12 10475 6886 4116 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 92 94 S 13 11106 8413 5643 White 21
4 PM Mon 92 93 S 13 10475 6886 4116 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 91 91 S 14 8672 4923 2153 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 88 88 SW 14 4957 3567 797 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 87 87 SW 14 4508 3383 613 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 84 84 S 13 3384 3251 481 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 82 82 S 12 3296 2993 223 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 79 79 S 10 2994 2779 9 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 78 78 S 9 2923 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 S 8 2780 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 75 75 S 8 2708 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 74 74 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 73 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com