Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 77 77 S 7 2499 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 79 79 SE 6 2617 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 83 85 SE 7 4000 2861 91 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 87 90 S 5 5868 4349 1579 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 91 96 S 6 7799 6445 3675 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 93 98 W 5 8080 7467 4697 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 95 100 W 6 8949 7915 5145 White 23
2 PM Sat 97 102 W 8 9381 9381 6611 White 25
3 PM Sat 97 101 W 8 9165 8055 5285 White 24
4 PM Sat 98 100 W 10 8949 7915 5145 White 23
5 PM Sat 98 99 NW 10 8732 7775 5005 White 22
6 PM Sat 97 97 NW 12 7940 6644 3874 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 95 95 NW 12 7658 6246 3476 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 92 92 NW 12 6270 5546 2776 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 90 90 NW 10 5868 4349 1579 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 87 87 W 9 4360 3659 889 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 85 85 SW 9 4000 2861 91 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 SW 8 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 82 82 SW 7 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 81 81 SW 7 2686 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 80 80 S 6 2652 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 79 79 S 6 2617 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 79 79 S 7 2617 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 78 78 S 7 2570 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 77 77 SW 7 2499 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 81 82 SW 6 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 85 88 SW 5 4539 3991 1221 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 90 94 W 3 6670 6047 3277 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 94 99 NW 5 8732 7775 5005 White 22
12 Noon Sun 97 103 N 7 9597 9597 6827 White 26
1 PM Sun 100 106 NW 8 10242 10242 7472 White 29
2 PM Sun 102 108 NW 9 10667 10667 7897 White 31
3 PM Sun 102 106 NW 10 10242 10242 7472 White 29
4 PM Sun 103 106 NW 12 10242 10242 7472 White 29
5 PM Sun 103 104 NW 12 9812 9812 7042 White 27
6 PM Sun 102 102 NW 13 9381 9381 6611 White 25
7 PM Sun 99 99 NW 13 8732 7775 5005 White 22
8 PM Sun 96 96 NW 14 7799 6445 3675 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 94 94 NW 13 6670 6047 3277 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 90 90 NW 13 5868 4349 1579 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 88 88 W 10 4539 3991 1221 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 86 86 W 9 4180 3232 462 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 84 84 SW 7 3676 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 83 83 SW 6 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 83 83 S 6 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 82 82 S 6 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 81 81 S 6 2686 2770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 80 80 S 5 2652 2770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 79 79 S 3 2617 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 83 84 S 3 3676 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 88 91 S 3 6069 4527 1757 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 93 98 W 5 8080 7467 4697 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 98 104 NW 5 9812 9812 7042 White 27
12 Noon Mon 102 109 NW 6 10874 10874 8104 White 32
1 PM Mon 105 112 NW 7 11493 11493 8723 White 35
2 PM Mon 107 113 NW 7 11699 11699 8929 White 36
3 PM Mon 107 112 NW 7 11493 11493 8723 White 35
4 PM Mon 108 111 NW 8 11287 11287 8517 White 34
5 PM Mon 108 109 NW 8 10874 10874 8104 White 32
6 PM Mon 107 107 NW 9 10457 10457 7687 White 30
7 PM Mon 104 104 NW 10 9812 9812 7042 White 27
8 PM Mon 101 101 N 10 9165 8055 5285 White 24
9 PM Mon 98 98 N 10 8080 7467 4697 Blue 21
10 PM Mon 94 94 NE 10 6670 6047 3277 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 91 91 NE 9 6069 4527 1757 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 89 89 E 9 5643 4170 1400 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 87 87 E 9 4360 3659 889 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 86 86 SE 8 4180 3232 462 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 85 85 SE 8 4000 2861 91 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 84 84 SE 8 3676 2770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 83 83 SE 8 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 82 82 SE 8 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 81 81 SE 8 2686 2770 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 85 86 SE 7 4180 3232 462 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 90 93 SE 6 6470 5847 3077 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 95 100 SE 6 8949 7915 5145 White 23
11 AM Tue 101 107 SE 5 10457 10457 7687 White 30
12 Noon Tue 104 111 SE 5 11287 11287 8517 White 34
1 PM Tue 107 114 SE 6 11905 11905 9135 White 37
2 PM Tue 109 115 S 7 12107 12107 9337 White 38
3 PM Tue 110 114 SW 8 11905 11905 9135 White 37
4 PM Tue 111 114 SW 9 11905 11905 9135 White 37
5 PM Tue 111 112 W 12 11493 11493 8723 White 35
6 PM Tue 109 109 W 13 10874 10874 8104 White 32
7 PM Tue 106 106 W 13 10242 10242 7472 White 29
8 PM Tue 102 102 W 13 9381 9381 6611 White 25
9 PM Tue 99 99 W 12 8732 7775 5005 White 22
10 PM Tue 95 95 SW 12 7658 6246 3476 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 93 93 SW 10 6470 5847 3077 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 90 90 S 10 5868 4349 1579 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 88 88 S 9 4539 3991 1221 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 87 87 SE 9 4360 3659 889 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 86 86 SE 9 4180 3232 462 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 85 85 SE 9 4000 2861 91 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 84 84 SE 9 3676 2770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 83 83 SE 9 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 82 82 S 8 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 85 86 S 7 4180 3232 462 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 90 92 SW 7 6270 5546 2776 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 95 98 W 6 8080 7467 4697 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 100 105 W 6 10028 10028 7258 White 28
12 Noon Wed 103 108 NW 6 10667 10667 7897 White 31
1 PM Wed 105 110 NW 7 11080 11080 8310 White 33
2 PM Wed 107 111 NW 8 11287 11287 8517 White 34
3 PM Wed 108 111 NW 10 11287 11287 8517 White 34
4 PM Wed 109 111 NW 13 11287 11287 8517 White 34
5 PM Wed 109 110 NW 14 11080 11080 8310 White 33
6 PM Wed 107 107 NW 16 10457 10457 7687 White 30
7 PM Wed 104 104 NW 16 9812 9812 7042 White 27
8 PM Wed 101 101 W 15 9165 8055 5285 White 24
9 PM Wed 97 97 W 15 7940 6644 3874 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 93 93 W 14 6470 5847 3077 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 91 91 SW 13 6069 4527 1757 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 89 89 SW 12 5643 4170 1400 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 86 86 S 10 4180 3232 462 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 85 85 S 9 4000 2861 91 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 84 84 S 8 3676 2770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 83 83 S 8 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 82 82 S 8 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 81 81 S 8 2686 2770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 80 80 S 8 2652 2770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 83 84 S 7 3676 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 87 89 SW 7 5643 4170 1400 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 91 94 W 6 6670 6047 3277 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 96 101 W 6 9165 8055 5285 White 24
12 Noon Thu 98 103 W 6 9597 9597 6827 White 26
1 PM Thu 100 105 W 7 10028 10028 7258 White 28
2 PM Thu 102 106 W 8 10242 10242 7472 White 29
3 PM Thu 102 105 W 9 10028 10028 7258 White 28
4 PM Thu 103 105 W 10 10028 10028 7258 White 28
5 PM Thu 104 105 W 12 10028 10028 7258 White 28
6 PM Thu 102 102 W 13 9381 9381 6611 White 25
7 PM Thu 99 99 W 13 8732 7775 5005 White 22
8 PM Thu 96 96 W 13 7799 6445 3675 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 93 93 W 12 6470 5847 3077 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 90 90 SW 12 5868 4349 1579 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 88 88 SW 10 4539 3991 1221 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 85 85 S 10 4000 2861 91 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 83 83 S 9 3243 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 82 82 S 8 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 82 82 S 8 2864 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 80 80 S 8 2652 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 80 80 S 8 2652 2770 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com