Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 41 41 SE 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 SE 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 SE 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 SE 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 SE 13 2624 2770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 55 56 E 13 3192 2836 66 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 61 63 E 12 4591 3984 1214 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 66 69 E 10 5684 5153 2383 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 68 71 E 8 6027 5495 2725 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 71 73 E 6 6369 5837 3067 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 70 71 E 5 6027 5495 2725 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 69 69 NE 5 5684 5153 2383 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 68 68 NE 5 5513 4970 2200 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 64 64 NE 5 4789 4182 1412 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 58 58 E 6 3594 2987 217 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 55 55 E 6 2991 2779 9 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 53 53 E 6 2836 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 2698 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 6 2587 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 E 6 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 45 45 E 6 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 43 43 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 E 7 2661 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 57 58 E 7 3594 2987 217 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 64 66 E 6 5169 4577 1807 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 69 72 E 6 6198 5666 2896 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 72 75 E 5 6710 6177 3407 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 75 77 E 3 7278 6516 3746 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 74 75 E 3 6710 6177 3407 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 74 74 NE 2 6539 6007 3237 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 72 72 NE 2 6198 5666 2896 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 68 68 NE 2 5513 4970 2200 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 63 63 E 2 4591 3984 1214 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 60 60 E 3 3994 3387 617 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 58 58 E 3 3594 2987 217 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 55 55 E 3 2991 2779 9 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 52 52 SE 5 2780 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SE 5 2735 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 50 50 SE 5 2698 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 48 48 SE 5 2624 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 47 47 SE 5 2587 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 45 45 SE 6 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 46 46 SE 6 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 46 46 SE 7 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 53 53 SE 7 2836 2770 0 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 61 62 S 6 4392 3785 1015 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 67 69 S 6 5684 5153 2383 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 72 75 S 6 6710 6177 3407 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 74 76 SW 7 6880 6347 3577 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 78 80 SW 7 10089 7189 4419 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 76 77 SW 7 7278 6516 3746 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 76 76 SW 8 6880 6347 3577 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 74 74 SW 8 6539 6007 3237 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 70 70 SW 8 5856 5324 2554 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 4789 4182 1412 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 61 61 S 8 4193 3586 816 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 58 58 S 8 3594 2987 217 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 55 55 S 8 2991 2779 9 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 8 2780 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 S 8 2735 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 49 49 S 7 2661 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 48 48 S 6 2624 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 6 2587 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 6 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 2624 2770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 50 50 W 7 2698 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 53 53 W 7 2836 2770 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 54 55 W 8 2991 2779 9 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 55 56 W 9 3192 2836 66 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 57 58 W 10 3594 2987 217 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 3192 2836 66 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 2991 2779 9 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 54 54 W 13 2893 2770 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 12 2735 2770 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 46 46 W 10 2550 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 44 44 W 10 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 W 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 W 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 W 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 NW 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 NW 5 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 50 52 NW 3 2780 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 54 57 NW 5 3393 2892 122 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 56 59 NW 6 3794 3187 417 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 59 61 NW 6 4193 3586 816 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 58 59 NW 7 3794 3187 417 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 57 57 NW 7 3393 2892 122 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 3192 2836 66 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 52 52 N 8 2780 2770 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 2624 2770 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 7 2513 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 43 43 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 E 7 2698 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 55 57 E 7 3393 2892 122 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 60 62 E 7 4392 3785 1015 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 62 64 E 7 4789 4182 1412 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 66 68 NE 7 5513 4970 2200 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 65 66 N 7 5169 4577 1807 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 64 64 N 7 4789 4182 1412 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 63 63 NW 7 4591 3984 1214 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 58 58 N 7 3594 2987 217 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 53 53 N 7 2836 2770 0 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 6 2661 2770 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 47 47 E 6 2587 2770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 44 44 E 5 2476 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com