Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 38 38 E 16 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 E 15 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 E 15 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 E 15 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 E 15 3083 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 53 55 E 16 7364 6188 3418 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 57 60 E 17 7667 7444 4674 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 60 64 E 18 8634 7778 5008 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 62 65 E 20 8673 8113 5343 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 62 65 E 20 8673 8113 5343 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 63 64 E 18 8634 7778 5008 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 62 62 E 17 8178 7531 4761 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 60 60 E 15 7667 7444 4674 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 56 56 E 14 7408 6986 4216 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 53 53 E 13 7019 4268 1498 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 50 50 E 12 4339 2770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 48 48 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 E 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 E 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 E 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 E 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 E 15 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 E 16 5397 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 56 57 E 16 7451 7198 4428 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 61 63 E 17 8513 7643 4873 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 65 67 E 16 8751 8625 5855 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 67 69 E 15 8829 8703 5933 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 68 69 E 14 8829 8703 5933 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 68 69 E 13 8829 8703 5933 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 67 67 E 13 8751 8625 5855 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 65 65 E 12 8673 8113 5343 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 60 60 E 12 7667 7444 4674 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 57 57 E 12 7451 7198 4428 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 54 54 E 10 7233 5305 2535 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 52 52 E 10 6298 3053 283 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 10 4339 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 E 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 E 13 7233 5305 2535 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 60 62 E 13 8178 7531 4761 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 65 68 E 13 8790 8664 5894 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 69 72 E 12 9012 8820 6050 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 71 74 E 10 9234 8910 6140 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 72 75 E 9 9431 8993 6223 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 72 73 E 9 9095 8859 6089 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 71 71 NE 8 8929 8781 6011 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 69 69 NE 7 8829 8703 5933 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 64 64 NE 7 8634 7778 5008 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 60 60 E 7 7667 7444 4674 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 57 57 E 6 7451 7198 4428 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 54 54 E 6 7233 5305 2535 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 52 52 E 6 6298 3053 283 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 49 49 E 6 3083 2770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 E 7 3083 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 48 48 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 SE 7 7408 6986 4216 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 62 64 SE 7 8634 7778 5008 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 67 70 SE 6 8868 8742 5972 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 71 74 SE 6 9234 8910 6140 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 73 76 S 6 9628 9076 6306 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 74 76 SW 6 9628 9076 6306 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 74 75 SW 7 9431 8993 6223 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 73 73 W 7 9095 8859 6089 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 71 71 W 7 8929 8781 6011 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 7 8712 8444 5674 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 8513 7643 4873 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 59 59 SW 6 7539 7400 4630 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 6 7408 6986 4216 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 54 54 S 6 7233 5305 2535 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 6 6298 3053 283 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 S 6 5397 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 50 50 S 6 4339 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 48 48 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 SE 6 7451 7198 4428 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 63 65 SE 6 8673 8113 5343 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 68 70 SE 6 8868 8742 5972 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 71 74 SE 6 9234 8910 6140 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 73 76 E 6 9628 9076 6306 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 74 76 NE 6 9628 9076 6306 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 74 75 N 6 9431 8993 6223 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 73 73 NW 7 9095 8859 6089 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 71 71 NW 7 8929 8781 6011 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 66 66 NW 6 8712 8444 5674 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 6 8513 7643 4873 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 7667 7444 4674 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 57 57 S 6 7451 7198 4428 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 55 55 S 6 7364 6188 3418 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 52 52 SE 6 6298 3053 283 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SE 6 6298 3053 283 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 51 51 SE 6 5397 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 49 49 SE 6 3083 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 48 48 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 3083 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 57 57 E 7 7451 7198 4428 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 63 64 E 7 8634 7778 5008 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 68 69 E 7 8829 8703 5933 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 72 73 E 8 9095 8859 6089 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 74 75 E 8 9431 8993 6223 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 75 76 NE 8 9628 9076 6306 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 75 75 NE 8 9431 8993 6223 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 74 74 NE 8 9234 8910 6140 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 72 72 N 8 9012 8820 6050 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 67 67 NE 8 8751 8625 5855 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 64 64 NE 8 8634 7778 5008 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 61 61 NE 7 7840 7488 4718 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 7495 7356 4586 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 56 56 E 7 7408 6986 4216 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 53 53 E 7 7019 4268 1498 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 7 7019 4268 1498 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 52 52 E 7 6298 3053 283 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 4339 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 7 3083 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com